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000
FXUS66 KPQR 211644
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
944 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
CLAPS OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT
BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...SPREADING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS
AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND PASS BY. ANOTHER WET
AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THUS FAR WITH THE 12Z OUTPUT.
THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFFSHORE. THE OCCLUSION IS SITUATED
JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS SETUP PLACES
OUR REGION SQUARELY IN THE WARMING SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE TO SEE A COASTAL JET DEVELOP
WITH NAM12 AND RAP INDICATED PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 67 MPH CENTERED
AROUND 900 MB. THUS FEEL MOST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST WILL PEAK OUT
AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND WINDS AT THAT LEVEL VEERING MORE SW THAN THE SOUTH WINDS TRAPPED
ALONG THE TERRAIN. WILL STILL CARRY THE HIGHER SPEEDS TONIGHT IN THE
PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS THE EXPOSED HIGHER HEADLANDS SUCH AS CAPE
FOULWEATHER...CAPE LOOKOUT...AND CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT CERTAINLY COULD
FULLY REALIZE THOSE HIGHER SPEEDS. RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN ON TRACK AS
EXPECTED FROM OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR
THIS SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS FORMING FROM TIME TO TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
COASTAL SITES MAY SEE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD HEAVIER RAIN ONTO THE COAST
OVERNIGHT NIGHT AND INLAND TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF MVFR CIG MAY FORM THROUGH ABOUT 21Z IN SHOWERS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TO SPREAD STEADY RAIN IN AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...S/SW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
GALE FORCE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED. SOME COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT MAY
BRING A FEW 50 TO 55 KT GUSTS TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SEAS
MAY APPROACH 20 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...BUT THE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 201631
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG
THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF I-5 WITH RAIN BANDS TO THE EAST TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
STILL APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF SEEING
ONE DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS TO PUSH THE TEXT WORDING OVER TO POST FRONTAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WORDING.

AN EARLY LOOK AT MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD AGAINST
THE RECENT OBS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR PAST EVENTS
PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF
TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS MENTIONED BELOW AND IN OUR
SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS...ITS TIME TO ENSURE DRAINS AND CULVERTS ARE
READY TO RECEIVE A PROLONGED SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE AND
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. UPDATED GRIDS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB WITH TEXT
PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING
AND HAS SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS
ANOTHER VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS
INSTABILITY A BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD
SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE...
KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND TODAY PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE
MORE DOMINANT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAINFALL AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
FREQUENT TONIGHT AFTER 02Z.
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ASHORE THIS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO TUE...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE COMING IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS. W SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FT AROUND 15 SEC IS EXPECTED
TO ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE WATERS FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TUE
NIGHT...UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE WATERS. THE WESTERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE NIGHT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY GALES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT TUE NIGHT...MOST LIKELY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 201631
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG
THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF I-5 WITH RAIN BANDS TO THE EAST TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
STILL APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF SEEING
ONE DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS TO PUSH THE TEXT WORDING OVER TO POST FRONTAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WORDING.

AN EARLY LOOK AT MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD AGAINST
THE RECENT OBS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR PAST EVENTS
PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF
TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS MENTIONED BELOW AND IN OUR
SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS...ITS TIME TO ENSURE DRAINS AND CULVERTS ARE
READY TO RECEIVE A PROLONGED SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE AND
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. UPDATED GRIDS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB WITH TEXT
PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING
AND HAS SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS
ANOTHER VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS
INSTABILITY A BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD
SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE...
KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND TODAY PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE
MORE DOMINANT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAINFALL AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
FREQUENT TONIGHT AFTER 02Z.
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ASHORE THIS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO TUE...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE COMING IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS. W SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FT AROUND 15 SEC IS EXPECTED
TO ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE WATERS FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TUE
NIGHT...UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE WATERS. THE WESTERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE NIGHT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY GALES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT TUE NIGHT...MOST LIKELY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 201631
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG
THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF I-5 WITH RAIN BANDS TO THE EAST TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
STILL APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF SEEING
ONE DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS TO PUSH THE TEXT WORDING OVER TO POST FRONTAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WORDING.

AN EARLY LOOK AT MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD AGAINST
THE RECENT OBS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR PAST EVENTS
PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF
TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS MENTIONED BELOW AND IN OUR
SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS...ITS TIME TO ENSURE DRAINS AND CULVERTS ARE
READY TO RECEIVE A PROLONGED SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE AND
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. UPDATED GRIDS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB WITH TEXT
PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING
AND HAS SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS
ANOTHER VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS
INSTABILITY A BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD
SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE...
KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND TODAY PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE
MORE DOMINANT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAINFALL AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
FREQUENT TONIGHT AFTER 02Z.
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ASHORE THIS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO TUE...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE COMING IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS. W SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FT AROUND 15 SEC IS EXPECTED
TO ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE WATERS FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TUE
NIGHT...UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE WATERS. THE WESTERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE NIGHT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY GALES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT TUE NIGHT...MOST LIKELY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 200928
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...SPREADING PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS
SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS ANOTHER
VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS INSTABILITY A
BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER
TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.
WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR NOW INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD HAVE
AREAS OF MVFR FURTHER INLAND UNTIL 17Z. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE AFTER 17Z...WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING. AT THAT TIME...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY...WITH RAIN UNTIL 17Z...THEN
BRIEF BREAK BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 12Z TO 17Z AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
OPS AREA. THEN ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS UNDER SHOWERS. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...BROAD LOW PRES STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SEVERAL FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK.

FIRST IS APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT FOR GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY RELAX AT TIMES...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER
REGION...WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SO...WILL EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OUT THROUGH TUE.

NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND WILL APPROACH REGION LATER
TUE AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. LOOKS LIKE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45
KT TUE NIGHT.

SEAS NOW RUNNING 12 TO 13 FT...BUT WILL HOLD RATHER STEADY THROUGH
TUE. BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO 15 TO 20 FT FOR TUE NIGHT...BUT
HIGHEST STILL STILL LIKELY TO BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...OR FROM
10 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY
 THROUGH TUE ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM NOW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200928
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...SPREADING PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS
SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS ANOTHER
VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS INSTABILITY A
BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER
TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.
WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR NOW INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD HAVE
AREAS OF MVFR FURTHER INLAND UNTIL 17Z. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE AFTER 17Z...WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING. AT THAT TIME...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY...WITH RAIN UNTIL 17Z...THEN
BRIEF BREAK BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 12Z TO 17Z AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
OPS AREA. THEN ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS UNDER SHOWERS. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...BROAD LOW PRES STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SEVERAL FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK.

FIRST IS APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT FOR GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY RELAX AT TIMES...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER
REGION...WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SO...WILL EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OUT THROUGH TUE.

NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND WILL APPROACH REGION LATER
TUE AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. LOOKS LIKE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45
KT TUE NIGHT.

SEAS NOW RUNNING 12 TO 13 FT...BUT WILL HOLD RATHER STEADY THROUGH
TUE. BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO 15 TO 20 FT FOR TUE NIGHT...BUT
HIGHEST STILL STILL LIKELY TO BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...OR FROM
10 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY
 THROUGH TUE ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM NOW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 200928
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...SPREADING PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS
SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS ANOTHER
VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS INSTABILITY A
BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER
TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.
WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR NOW INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD HAVE
AREAS OF MVFR FURTHER INLAND UNTIL 17Z. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE AFTER 17Z...WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING. AT THAT TIME...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY...WITH RAIN UNTIL 17Z...THEN
BRIEF BREAK BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 12Z TO 17Z AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
OPS AREA. THEN ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS UNDER SHOWERS. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...BROAD LOW PRES STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SEVERAL FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK.

FIRST IS APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT FOR GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY RELAX AT TIMES...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER
REGION...WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SO...WILL EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OUT THROUGH TUE.

NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND WILL APPROACH REGION LATER
TUE AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. LOOKS LIKE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45
KT TUE NIGHT.

SEAS NOW RUNNING 12 TO 13 FT...BUT WILL HOLD RATHER STEADY THROUGH
TUE. BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO 15 TO 20 FT FOR TUE NIGHT...BUT
HIGHEST STILL STILL LIKELY TO BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...OR FROM
10 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY
 THROUGH TUE ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM NOW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND WILL SEND A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
NEXT RATHER STRONG AND QUITE WET FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH IN THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THE WEEK...CONTINUING THE
FALL LIKE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
FIRST FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WAS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN.

THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE MAIN
COLD POOL ALOFT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. WILL
KEEP SOME THUNDER OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST...BUT INLAND IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST LATER TUESDAY AND
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT LOOKS
EVEN MORE MOIST THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP NEAR 1.3 INCHES AND STRONG 850 MB INFLOW WINDS.
FORTUNATELY...AT THIS POINT THE FRONT DOES NOT SEEM TO STALL AND
GENERALLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA SOMEWHAT STEADILY THOUGH STILL
SLOWLY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NEED TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED AS THERE COULD
BE SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS...INCLUDING SOME OF OUR FLASHIER
RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

THE MODELS VARY SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST AND
THE ECMWF THE WEAKEST. IF THE GFS IS CLOSER TO VERIFYING...THEN WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST HEADLAND COASTAL HIGH WIND EVENT OF THE FALL. IN
ANY EVENT GALES LOOK PRETTY CERTAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AND IS PRESENTLY NEAR THE COAST...WHERE GUSTY S WINDS TO 25
KT AND VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FT ALONG WITH A SCATTERED DECK AROUND
3000 FT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH RAIN STARTING TO REACH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS FRONT CONTINUES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR...RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z MONDAY. POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 4000 FT BY 07Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2000 FT ALONG WITH DECREASING
VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR
AROUND MIDDAY MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO CROSS
THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED THE WATERS AND IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED JUST ONSHORE. WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 41 KT AT BUOY 46029 AND 44
KT AT GARIBALDI WERE RECORDED THIS EVENING...WINDS HAVE EASED AS THE
FRONT PUSHED ONSHORE AND WITH OBSERVATIONS LAST HOUR CONSIDERABLY
LOWER...FEEL COMFORTABLE TO END THE GALE WARNING AS OF 8 PM. GUSTS
25-30 KT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
MON EVENING AND EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY...THOUGH DETAILS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS NEXT FRONT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

SEAS PEAKED AROUND 14 FT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
12-14 FT RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS GRADUALLY EASE A LITTLE LATE MON OR
EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD AGAIN BUILD A BIT HIGHER WITH THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM AND FRONT ARRIVING TUE/WED. THUS...EXPECT THAT SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WEEK.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT MON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUE
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND WILL SEND A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
NEXT RATHER STRONG AND QUITE WET FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH IN THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THE WEEK...CONTINUING THE
FALL LIKE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
FIRST FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WAS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN.

THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE MAIN
COLD POOL ALOFT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. WILL
KEEP SOME THUNDER OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST...BUT INLAND IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST LATER TUESDAY AND
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT LOOKS
EVEN MORE MOIST THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP NEAR 1.3 INCHES AND STRONG 850 MB INFLOW WINDS.
FORTUNATELY...AT THIS POINT THE FRONT DOES NOT SEEM TO STALL AND
GENERALLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA SOMEWHAT STEADILY THOUGH STILL
SLOWLY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NEED TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED AS THERE COULD
BE SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS...INCLUDING SOME OF OUR FLASHIER
RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

THE MODELS VARY SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST AND
THE ECMWF THE WEAKEST. IF THE GFS IS CLOSER TO VERIFYING...THEN WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST HEADLAND COASTAL HIGH WIND EVENT OF THE FALL. IN
ANY EVENT GALES LOOK PRETTY CERTAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AND IS PRESENTLY NEAR THE COAST...WHERE GUSTY S WINDS TO 25
KT AND VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FT ALONG WITH A SCATTERED DECK AROUND
3000 FT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH RAIN STARTING TO REACH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS FRONT CONTINUES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR...RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z MONDAY. POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 4000 FT BY 07Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2000 FT ALONG WITH DECREASING
VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR
AROUND MIDDAY MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO CROSS
THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED THE WATERS AND IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED JUST ONSHORE. WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 41 KT AT BUOY 46029 AND 44
KT AT GARIBALDI WERE RECORDED THIS EVENING...WINDS HAVE EASED AS THE
FRONT PUSHED ONSHORE AND WITH OBSERVATIONS LAST HOUR CONSIDERABLY
LOWER...FEEL COMFORTABLE TO END THE GALE WARNING AS OF 8 PM. GUSTS
25-30 KT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
MON EVENING AND EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY...THOUGH DETAILS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS NEXT FRONT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

SEAS PEAKED AROUND 14 FT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
12-14 FT RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS GRADUALLY EASE A LITTLE LATE MON OR
EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD AGAIN BUILD A BIT HIGHER WITH THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM AND FRONT ARRIVING TUE/WED. THUS...EXPECT THAT SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WEEK.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT MON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUE
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND WILL SEND A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
NEXT RATHER STRONG AND QUITE WET FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH IN THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THE WEEK...CONTINUING THE
FALL LIKE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
FIRST FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WAS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN.

THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE MAIN
COLD POOL ALOFT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. WILL
KEEP SOME THUNDER OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST...BUT INLAND IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST LATER TUESDAY AND
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT LOOKS
EVEN MORE MOIST THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP NEAR 1.3 INCHES AND STRONG 850 MB INFLOW WINDS.
FORTUNATELY...AT THIS POINT THE FRONT DOES NOT SEEM TO STALL AND
GENERALLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA SOMEWHAT STEADILY THOUGH STILL
SLOWLY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NEED TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED AS THERE COULD
BE SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS...INCLUDING SOME OF OUR FLASHIER
RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

THE MODELS VARY SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST AND
THE ECMWF THE WEAKEST. IF THE GFS IS CLOSER TO VERIFYING...THEN WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST HEADLAND COASTAL HIGH WIND EVENT OF THE FALL. IN
ANY EVENT GALES LOOK PRETTY CERTAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AND IS PRESENTLY NEAR THE COAST...WHERE GUSTY S WINDS TO 25
KT AND VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FT ALONG WITH A SCATTERED DECK AROUND
3000 FT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH RAIN STARTING TO REACH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS FRONT CONTINUES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR...RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z MONDAY. POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 4000 FT BY 07Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2000 FT ALONG WITH DECREASING
VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR
AROUND MIDDAY MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO CROSS
THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED THE WATERS AND IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED JUST ONSHORE. WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 41 KT AT BUOY 46029 AND 44
KT AT GARIBALDI WERE RECORDED THIS EVENING...WINDS HAVE EASED AS THE
FRONT PUSHED ONSHORE AND WITH OBSERVATIONS LAST HOUR CONSIDERABLY
LOWER...FEEL COMFORTABLE TO END THE GALE WARNING AS OF 8 PM. GUSTS
25-30 KT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
MON EVENING AND EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY...THOUGH DETAILS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS NEXT FRONT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

SEAS PEAKED AROUND 14 FT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
12-14 FT RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS GRADUALLY EASE A LITTLE LATE MON OR
EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD AGAIN BUILD A BIT HIGHER WITH THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM AND FRONT ARRIVING TUE/WED. THUS...EXPECT THAT SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WEEK.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT MON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUE
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 192141
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E PACIFIC WILL PUSH A SERIES OF
STORMS INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEK. THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT TO SPREAD RAIN BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NW...AND PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON MON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TUE
THEN SLOWLY DROP SE INTO WESTERN OREGON WED AND THU...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF EXTENDED WET WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE COAST. CLOUD BAND IS RELATIVELY
NARROW BUT SOLID...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT ON THE ORDER OF 1.25 INCHES AS IT MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENING.
DUE PRIMARILY TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH MODELS APPEAR TO BE
BACKING OFF ON THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS
THE S END OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER DOWN TOWARDS NORTHERN CA
MON NIGHT. WITH DYNAMICS HEADING S AND MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW
INDICATING LITTLE CAPE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS FOR MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE...AND PULL BACK THE AREAL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS A BIT
FURTHER S.

GFS AND ECWMF BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN DEPICTING THE
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT TUE. ECMWF
IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THE MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
BETWEEN 290 AND 300K SURFACES PUSING IN PAST THE COAST RANGE OF NW
OREGON ...WHILE GFS IS SHOWING THE BEST ISNETROPICS LIFTING N OFF
THE COAST. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE A REASON TO FAVOR ONE OVER THE
OTHER...SO OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POPS SPREADING INLAND TUE
AFTERNOON OVER THE NAW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BACK OFF
ON POPS A BIT INLAND. EVENTUALLY THOUGH TUE NIGHT INTO WED BOTH GFS
AND ECWMF PUSH THE OCCLUDED FRONT SE INTO NW OREGON. WIND FIELD
LOOKS A BIT STRONGER THAN EARLIER SYSTEMS TO THE POINT WHERE WE HAVE
TO START CONSIDERING HIGH WINDS FOR THE COAST TUE NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH WITH SURFACE PRES GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 12 MB FORECAST BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY TO COME UP A BIT SHORT
OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE STRONG WIND FIELD THOUGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AROUND AN INCH RESULT IN GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FROM LATE TUE THROUGH
WED...MAKING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT SLOWS TO A
CRAWL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.  THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MVFR WITH RAIN ON COAST
BY 23Z AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THIS RAIN AND MVFR WILL SPREAD
INLAND AFTER 03Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH
PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE INLAND AND MAINLY SOUTH OF KUAO-
KAST LINE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WILL HAVE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WITH
CIGS FALLING BELOW 4000 FEET AFT 03Z AND RAIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME POTENTIAL TO GET VSBYS 3 SM OR BELOW BUT HAVE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF 4-6 SM UNDER RA/BR. EXPECT SHOWERS AND MARGINAL CIGS
APPROACHING IFR BY 15Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT MID-DAY MONDAY BUT
SHOWERY ACTION WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME TCU EXPECTED. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO CROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT NOW INSIDE OF BUOY 89 WHERE CONDITIONS GOT
CLOSE TO GALES BUT HELD JUST SHORT. BUOY 29 CAME UP WITH GALE
GUSTS OF 37KT ON THE 2 PM OB BUT AM INTRIGUED TO SEE IF FOLLOWING
HOURS HOLD OR IF IT WAS A SHORT LIVED FEATURE. AM SEEING COASTAL
JET LIKE CONDITIONS BUT WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT
AND ESPECIALLY DIMINISHING DOWN THE CENTRAL COASTLINE. THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WILL TELL THE TALE FOR SURE AS OVERALL GRADIENTS ARE
REMAINING VERY MUCH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND STILL DO NOT LOOK MUCH
LIKE THEY WILL OPEN UP GIVEN THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CENTER IS
SOME DISTANCE TO THE NORTHWEST. BUOY 89 SAW WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD SHORE THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS TO FALL BELOW 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD
EASILY SEE FREQUENT GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THEREAFTER ON MONDAY.

SEAS HAVE LARGELY PEAKED AROUND 14 FT AT BUOY 89 WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST AND GUIDANCE ON WITHIN A FOOT OF EACH OTHER. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THIS 14 FOOT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DO
EXPECT ANOTHER STRONGER PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT TO CROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO PUSH WINDS AND SEAS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN HAVE
BEEN SEEN THUS FAR WITH THE CURRENT FRONT. DETAILS ARE NOTABLY
DIFFERENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE GRADIENTS AND WINDS. GFS IS STRONGEST WITH FASTEST TIMING AT
THIS POINT. AS SUCH...RAW ENP GUIDANCE IS GIVING A FEW HOUR BURST
OF SEAS AROUND 18 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 6 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 192141
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E PACIFIC WILL PUSH A SERIES OF
STORMS INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEK. THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT TO SPREAD RAIN BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NW...AND PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON MON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TUE
THEN SLOWLY DROP SE INTO WESTERN OREGON WED AND THU...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF EXTENDED WET WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE COAST. CLOUD BAND IS RELATIVELY
NARROW BUT SOLID...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT ON THE ORDER OF 1.25 INCHES AS IT MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENING.
DUE PRIMARILY TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH MODELS APPEAR TO BE
BACKING OFF ON THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS
THE S END OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER DOWN TOWARDS NORTHERN CA
MON NIGHT. WITH DYNAMICS HEADING S AND MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW
INDICATING LITTLE CAPE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS FOR MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE...AND PULL BACK THE AREAL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS A BIT
FURTHER S.

GFS AND ECWMF BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN DEPICTING THE
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT TUE. ECMWF
IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THE MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
BETWEEN 290 AND 300K SURFACES PUSING IN PAST THE COAST RANGE OF NW
OREGON ...WHILE GFS IS SHOWING THE BEST ISNETROPICS LIFTING N OFF
THE COAST. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE A REASON TO FAVOR ONE OVER THE
OTHER...SO OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POPS SPREADING INLAND TUE
AFTERNOON OVER THE NAW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BACK OFF
ON POPS A BIT INLAND. EVENTUALLY THOUGH TUE NIGHT INTO WED BOTH GFS
AND ECWMF PUSH THE OCCLUDED FRONT SE INTO NW OREGON. WIND FIELD
LOOKS A BIT STRONGER THAN EARLIER SYSTEMS TO THE POINT WHERE WE HAVE
TO START CONSIDERING HIGH WINDS FOR THE COAST TUE NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH WITH SURFACE PRES GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 12 MB FORECAST BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY TO COME UP A BIT SHORT
OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE STRONG WIND FIELD THOUGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AROUND AN INCH RESULT IN GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FROM LATE TUE THROUGH
WED...MAKING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT SLOWS TO A
CRAWL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.  THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MVFR WITH RAIN ON COAST
BY 23Z AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THIS RAIN AND MVFR WILL SPREAD
INLAND AFTER 03Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH
PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE INLAND AND MAINLY SOUTH OF KUAO-
KAST LINE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WILL HAVE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WITH
CIGS FALLING BELOW 4000 FEET AFT 03Z AND RAIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME POTENTIAL TO GET VSBYS 3 SM OR BELOW BUT HAVE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF 4-6 SM UNDER RA/BR. EXPECT SHOWERS AND MARGINAL CIGS
APPROACHING IFR BY 15Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT MID-DAY MONDAY BUT
SHOWERY ACTION WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME TCU EXPECTED. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO CROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT NOW INSIDE OF BUOY 89 WHERE CONDITIONS GOT
CLOSE TO GALES BUT HELD JUST SHORT. BUOY 29 CAME UP WITH GALE
GUSTS OF 37KT ON THE 2 PM OB BUT AM INTRIGUED TO SEE IF FOLLOWING
HOURS HOLD OR IF IT WAS A SHORT LIVED FEATURE. AM SEEING COASTAL
JET LIKE CONDITIONS BUT WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT
AND ESPECIALLY DIMINISHING DOWN THE CENTRAL COASTLINE. THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WILL TELL THE TALE FOR SURE AS OVERALL GRADIENTS ARE
REMAINING VERY MUCH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND STILL DO NOT LOOK MUCH
LIKE THEY WILL OPEN UP GIVEN THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CENTER IS
SOME DISTANCE TO THE NORTHWEST. BUOY 89 SAW WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD SHORE THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS TO FALL BELOW 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD
EASILY SEE FREQUENT GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THEREAFTER ON MONDAY.

SEAS HAVE LARGELY PEAKED AROUND 14 FT AT BUOY 89 WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST AND GUIDANCE ON WITHIN A FOOT OF EACH OTHER. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THIS 14 FOOT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DO
EXPECT ANOTHER STRONGER PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT TO CROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO PUSH WINDS AND SEAS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN HAVE
BEEN SEEN THUS FAR WITH THE CURRENT FRONT. DETAILS ARE NOTABLY
DIFFERENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE GRADIENTS AND WINDS. GFS IS STRONGEST WITH FASTEST TIMING AT
THIS POINT. AS SUCH...RAW ENP GUIDANCE IS GIVING A FEW HOUR BURST
OF SEAS AROUND 18 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 6 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 191623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL SLOWLY
GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRES COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. A FRONT
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY MON SPREADING RAIN BACK INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT IN TUE...WITH A
COLD FRONT FOLLOWING TUE NIGHT AND WED. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING
THIS MORNING OVER THE INALND VALLEYS...WHILE SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WERE REPORTED ALONG THE COAST. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE THOUGH WAS LOCATED IN DEEPER
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STILL OUT NEAR 127W. 12Z SLE SOUNDING SHOWED THE
LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WAS FAIRLY SHALLOW...UP TO AROUND 1500
FT...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES ALOFT
WEAKENING TODAY EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP REASONABLY
EARLY TODAY BEFORE NOON. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. THE FRONTAL BAND OFFSHORE IN
SATELLITE LOOPS WAS MAKING SLOW STEADY PROGRESS E...SO WILL ALSO
CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO
MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...WATER VAPOR AND AMSU
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THIS FRONT IS TAPPING INTO A LITTLE
BIT OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ANA NEAR HAWAII...BUT THE FEED IS
FAIRLY WEAK. NONETHELESS...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PW VALUES OF 1.25
INCH AS IT MOVES ONSHORE...SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT
AMOUNT OF RAIN AS IT SLOWLY MARCHES THROUGH SW WA/NW OREGON TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UNSETTLED COLD
POOL BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH SOME DEFORMATION
DUE TO THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MONDAY COULD BE A
FAIRLY WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EVEN FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS.

EVENTUALLY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT OF THE PAC NW MON
NIGHT/TUE BY A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY JET OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...BUT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK ONSHORE
LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER STRONG...
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY
REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS STRONGER FRONT. MOST MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS FRONT...
WHICH DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION...COULD EITHER HANG UP THE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...PRODUCE A BEACHES/HEADLANDS HIGH WIND
EVENT...OR BOTH...SOMETIME TUE NIGHT OR WED.   WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PAC NW MIDWEEK. WITH A WELL-PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND PLENTY OF JET ENERGY...MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES THE PAC NW TUE NIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE THE LOW
DEVELOPS...AND THE MOST LIKELY ANSWER IS WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR
THE MAIN COASTAL WIND THREAT TO BE ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
OF OUR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. THIS LOW WOULD LIKELY CURL UP TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND UW WRF-
GFS SHOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY HANG UP THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE
SOMEWHAT...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO OUR NORTH UNTIL THE FRONT
SAGS FURTHER SOUTH WED/WED NIGHT.

BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE. GIVEN CURRENT GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RAIN TO
CAUSE A BIT OF A FLOOD THREAT ON THE MORE SENSITIVE COAST RANGE
DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY THE GRAYS RIVER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A SLOW MOVING AND WAVY FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT SYSTEM. FOR NOW
WE JUST KEPT POPS A BIT ABOVE CLIMO FRI/SAT.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY THIN FOG WEST OF I-5 ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH 1730Z WITH AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 1830Z OR SO. COASTAL AREAS ALSO WITH PATCHY
IFR CIGS BUT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE. MVFR AT THE COAST AND VFR INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN INCREASING MVFR WITH RAIN ON COAST BY 00Z AS
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THIS RAIN AND MVFR WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER
03Z AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONTINUE TO SEE SOME THREAT FOR IFR CIGS
AROUND 007 FEET FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS PER AREA CAMERAS.
THREAT IS RAPIDLY DECREASING SO HAVE DECIDED TO LET OBSERVATIONS
DRIVE OPERATIONAL DECISIONS INSTEAD OF FORCING VIA THE TAF. FEEL
CONFIDENT FOR VFR CIGS POST 18Z. WILL HAVE INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...WITH CIGS 5000 FEET AFT 00Z. JBONK/ROCKEY

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS
VALID. /JBONK

COLD FRONT OUT NEAR LONG 130 W WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY SOUTHERLY GALES ON
THE OUTER WATERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE COAST...WILL HAVE BRIEF PERIOD WHEN GUSTS WILL RUN 30 TO 35
KT. VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...SO
WILL PUT UP GALE WARNING FOR THAT TIME FRAME. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE...WINDS WILL EASE BACK TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD...AND WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT WOULD EXPECT TO RUN
BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL PUSH PEAKS UP AT 14 TO 16 ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 14 FT ON THE INNER WATERS
THIS EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS WEEK...AS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES REMAINS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL SEND SERIES OF FRONTS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH NEXT ARRIVING LATER TUE. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...AND BUILDING SEAS. ROCKEY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 6 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 191035
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG TODAY SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY AND
MILD FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING GIVES ONE MORE MAINLY DRY DAY. HOWEVER A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INLAND DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... KEEPING
SOME SHOWERS AROUND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER BUT WILL
ALSO BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH MORE RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE COAST RANGE. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY SALEM
NORTHWARD...DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND FAIR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARE BEGINNING TO THICKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE...AND SHOULD DISRUPT THE
FOG FORMATION SOMEWHAT BY DAYBREAK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO PULLING SOME
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE GORGE...KTTD-KDLS GRADIENTS ARE AROUND -3
MB...WHICH SHOULD KEEP DENSE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

ASIDE FROM THE MORNING FOG...TODAY SHOULD TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER DUE TO CONTINUED S-SW FLOW ALOFT
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AROUND...AS WELL AS MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO OUR APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER
WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT MILD...ANY SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS
SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO ASSIST THE WARMING PROCESS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 130W
AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WHICH IS TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH MORE POSSIBLE OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT INCHES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WATER VAPOR AND AMSU PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THIS
FRONT IS TAPPING INTO A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ANA
NEAR HAWAII...BUT THE FEED IS FAIRLY WEAK. NONETHELESS...THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE PW VALUES OF 1.25 INCH AS IT MOVES ONSHORE...SO THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS IT SLOWLY MARCHES
THROUGH SW WA/NW OREGON TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNSETTLED COLD POOL BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WITH SOME DEFORMATION DUE TO THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...MONDAY COULD BE A FAIRLY WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EVEN FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

EVENTUALLY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT OF THE PAC NW MON
NIGHT/TUE BY A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY JET OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...BUT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK ONSHORE
LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER STRONG...
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY
REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS STRONGER FRONT. MOST MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS FRONT...
WHICH DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION...COULD EITHER HANG UP THE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...PRODUCE A BEACHES/HEADLANDS HIGH WIND
EVENT...OR BOTH...SOMETIME TUE NIGHT OR WED.   WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW MIDWEEK. WITH A WELL-
PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PLENTY OF JET ENERGY...MODELS SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE PAC NW TUE NIGHT. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS...AND THE MOST LIKELY ANSWER IS
WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE MAIN COASTAL WIND THREAT TO BE ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS OF OUR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. THIS LOW WOULD
LIKELY CURL UP TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS THE
00Z ECMWF AND UW WRF-GFS SHOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY HANG UP THE MAIN
FRONTAL ZONE SOMEWHAT...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTH WED/WED NIGHT.

BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE. GIVEN CURRENT GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RAIN TO
CAUSE A BIT OF A FLOOD THREAT ON THE MORE SENSITIVE COAST RANGE
DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY THE GRAYS RIVER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A SLOW MOVING AND WAVY FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT SYSTEM. FOR NOW
WE JUST KEPT POPS A BIT ABOVE CLIMO FRI/SAT.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR NEXT 6 HRS. AREAS OF FOG
CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS REGION...BUT VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH SOLID
LOW STRATUS. SO...WILL KEEP VFR...BUT OCCASIONALLY VIS DROPPING
UNDER 1 MILE WITH FOG UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE
OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS...WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ARE LESS EXTENSIVE THIS AM. VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN INCREASING
MVFR WITH RAIN ON COAST BY 00Z AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THIS RAIN AND
MVFR WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER 03Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AREAS OF IFR FOG AND STRATUS HAVE FORMED ALONG
AND OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THIS WILL WILL AFFECT KPDX WITH VIS
UNDER 1/2 MI AT TIMES THROUGH 16Z...THEN LIFT TO LOW STRATUS. LOCAL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BREAKUP OF STRATUS TO BE AROUND 17Z. THEN WILL HAVE
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WITH CIGS 5000 FT AFT 00Z.  ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT OUT NEAR LONG 130 W WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY SOUTHERLY GALES ON
THE OUTER WATERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE COAST...WILL HAVE BRIEF PERIOD WHEN GUSTS WILL RUN 30 TO 35
KT. VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...SO
WILL PUT UP GALE WARNING FOR THAT TIME FRAME. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE...WINDS WILL EASE BACK TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD...AND WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT WOULD EXPECT TO RUN
BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL PUSH PEAKS UP AT 14 TO 16 ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 14 FT ON THE INNER WATERS
THIS EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANCE THIS WEEK...AS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES REMAINS OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL SEND SERIES OF FRONT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH NEXT ARRIVING LATER TUE. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...AND BUILDING SEAS.ROCKEY

 &&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON OUTER COASTAL
 WATERS...FROM 10 TO 60 MI OFFSHORE.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON INNER
 COASTAL WATERS...FROM 0 TO 10 MI OFFSHORE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 UNTIL 4 AM TODAY...THEN FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 191035
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG TODAY SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY AND
MILD FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING GIVES ONE MORE MAINLY DRY DAY. HOWEVER A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INLAND DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... KEEPING
SOME SHOWERS AROUND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER BUT WILL
ALSO BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH MORE RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE COAST RANGE. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY SALEM
NORTHWARD...DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND FAIR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARE BEGINNING TO THICKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE...AND SHOULD DISRUPT THE
FOG FORMATION SOMEWHAT BY DAYBREAK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO PULLING SOME
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE GORGE...KTTD-KDLS GRADIENTS ARE AROUND -3
MB...WHICH SHOULD KEEP DENSE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

ASIDE FROM THE MORNING FOG...TODAY SHOULD TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER DUE TO CONTINUED S-SW FLOW ALOFT
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AROUND...AS WELL AS MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO OUR APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER
WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT MILD...ANY SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS
SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO ASSIST THE WARMING PROCESS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 130W
AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WHICH IS TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH MORE POSSIBLE OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT INCHES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WATER VAPOR AND AMSU PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THIS
FRONT IS TAPPING INTO A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ANA
NEAR HAWAII...BUT THE FEED IS FAIRLY WEAK. NONETHELESS...THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE PW VALUES OF 1.25 INCH AS IT MOVES ONSHORE...SO THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS IT SLOWLY MARCHES
THROUGH SW WA/NW OREGON TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNSETTLED COLD POOL BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WITH SOME DEFORMATION DUE TO THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...MONDAY COULD BE A FAIRLY WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EVEN FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

EVENTUALLY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT OF THE PAC NW MON
NIGHT/TUE BY A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY JET OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...BUT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK ONSHORE
LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER STRONG...
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY
REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS STRONGER FRONT. MOST MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS FRONT...
WHICH DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION...COULD EITHER HANG UP THE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...PRODUCE A BEACHES/HEADLANDS HIGH WIND
EVENT...OR BOTH...SOMETIME TUE NIGHT OR WED.   WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW MIDWEEK. WITH A WELL-
PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PLENTY OF JET ENERGY...MODELS SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE PAC NW TUE NIGHT. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS...AND THE MOST LIKELY ANSWER IS
WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE MAIN COASTAL WIND THREAT TO BE ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS OF OUR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. THIS LOW WOULD
LIKELY CURL UP TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS THE
00Z ECMWF AND UW WRF-GFS SHOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY HANG UP THE MAIN
FRONTAL ZONE SOMEWHAT...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTH WED/WED NIGHT.

BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE. GIVEN CURRENT GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RAIN TO
CAUSE A BIT OF A FLOOD THREAT ON THE MORE SENSITIVE COAST RANGE
DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY THE GRAYS RIVER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A SLOW MOVING AND WAVY FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT SYSTEM. FOR NOW
WE JUST KEPT POPS A BIT ABOVE CLIMO FRI/SAT.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR NEXT 6 HRS. AREAS OF FOG
CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS REGION...BUT VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH SOLID
LOW STRATUS. SO...WILL KEEP VFR...BUT OCCASIONALLY VIS DROPPING
UNDER 1 MILE WITH FOG UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE
OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS...WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ARE LESS EXTENSIVE THIS AM. VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN INCREASING
MVFR WITH RAIN ON COAST BY 00Z AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THIS RAIN AND
MVFR WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER 03Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AREAS OF IFR FOG AND STRATUS HAVE FORMED ALONG
AND OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THIS WILL WILL AFFECT KPDX WITH VIS
UNDER 1/2 MI AT TIMES THROUGH 16Z...THEN LIFT TO LOW STRATUS. LOCAL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BREAKUP OF STRATUS TO BE AROUND 17Z. THEN WILL HAVE
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WITH CIGS 5000 FT AFT 00Z.  ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT OUT NEAR LONG 130 W WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY SOUTHERLY GALES ON
THE OUTER WATERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE COAST...WILL HAVE BRIEF PERIOD WHEN GUSTS WILL RUN 30 TO 35
KT. VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...SO
WILL PUT UP GALE WARNING FOR THAT TIME FRAME. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE...WINDS WILL EASE BACK TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD...AND WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT WOULD EXPECT TO RUN
BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL PUSH PEAKS UP AT 14 TO 16 ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 14 FT ON THE INNER WATERS
THIS EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANCE THIS WEEK...AS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES REMAINS OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL SEND SERIES OF FRONT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH NEXT ARRIVING LATER TUE. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...AND BUILDING SEAS.ROCKEY

 &&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON OUTER COASTAL
 WATERS...FROM 10 TO 60 MI OFFSHORE.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON INNER
 COASTAL WATERS...FROM 0 TO 10 MI OFFSHORE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 UNTIL 4 AM TODAY...THEN FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 191035
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG TODAY SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY AND
MILD FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING GIVES ONE MORE MAINLY DRY DAY. HOWEVER A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INLAND DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... KEEPING
SOME SHOWERS AROUND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER BUT WILL
ALSO BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH MORE RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE COAST RANGE. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY SALEM
NORTHWARD...DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND FAIR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARE BEGINNING TO THICKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE...AND SHOULD DISRUPT THE
FOG FORMATION SOMEWHAT BY DAYBREAK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO PULLING SOME
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE GORGE...KTTD-KDLS GRADIENTS ARE AROUND -3
MB...WHICH SHOULD KEEP DENSE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

ASIDE FROM THE MORNING FOG...TODAY SHOULD TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER DUE TO CONTINUED S-SW FLOW ALOFT
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AROUND...AS WELL AS MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO OUR APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER
WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT MILD...ANY SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS
SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO ASSIST THE WARMING PROCESS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 130W
AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WHICH IS TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH MORE POSSIBLE OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT INCHES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WATER VAPOR AND AMSU PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THIS
FRONT IS TAPPING INTO A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ANA
NEAR HAWAII...BUT THE FEED IS FAIRLY WEAK. NONETHELESS...THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE PW VALUES OF 1.25 INCH AS IT MOVES ONSHORE...SO THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS IT SLOWLY MARCHES
THROUGH SW WA/NW OREGON TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNSETTLED COLD POOL BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WITH SOME DEFORMATION DUE TO THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...MONDAY COULD BE A FAIRLY WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EVEN FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

EVENTUALLY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT OF THE PAC NW MON
NIGHT/TUE BY A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY JET OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...BUT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK ONSHORE
LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER STRONG...
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY
REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS STRONGER FRONT. MOST MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS FRONT...
WHICH DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION...COULD EITHER HANG UP THE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...PRODUCE A BEACHES/HEADLANDS HIGH WIND
EVENT...OR BOTH...SOMETIME TUE NIGHT OR WED.   WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW MIDWEEK. WITH A WELL-
PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PLENTY OF JET ENERGY...MODELS SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE PAC NW TUE NIGHT. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS...AND THE MOST LIKELY ANSWER IS
WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE MAIN COASTAL WIND THREAT TO BE ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS OF OUR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. THIS LOW WOULD
LIKELY CURL UP TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS THE
00Z ECMWF AND UW WRF-GFS SHOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY HANG UP THE MAIN
FRONTAL ZONE SOMEWHAT...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTH WED/WED NIGHT.

BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE. GIVEN CURRENT GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RAIN TO
CAUSE A BIT OF A FLOOD THREAT ON THE MORE SENSITIVE COAST RANGE
DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY THE GRAYS RIVER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A SLOW MOVING AND WAVY FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT SYSTEM. FOR NOW
WE JUST KEPT POPS A BIT ABOVE CLIMO FRI/SAT.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR NEXT 6 HRS. AREAS OF FOG
CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS REGION...BUT VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH SOLID
LOW STRATUS. SO...WILL KEEP VFR...BUT OCCASIONALLY VIS DROPPING
UNDER 1 MILE WITH FOG UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE
OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS...WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ARE LESS EXTENSIVE THIS AM. VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN INCREASING
MVFR WITH RAIN ON COAST BY 00Z AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THIS RAIN AND
MVFR WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER 03Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AREAS OF IFR FOG AND STRATUS HAVE FORMED ALONG
AND OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THIS WILL WILL AFFECT KPDX WITH VIS
UNDER 1/2 MI AT TIMES THROUGH 16Z...THEN LIFT TO LOW STRATUS. LOCAL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BREAKUP OF STRATUS TO BE AROUND 17Z. THEN WILL HAVE
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WITH CIGS 5000 FT AFT 00Z.  ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT OUT NEAR LONG 130 W WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY SOUTHERLY GALES ON
THE OUTER WATERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE COAST...WILL HAVE BRIEF PERIOD WHEN GUSTS WILL RUN 30 TO 35
KT. VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...SO
WILL PUT UP GALE WARNING FOR THAT TIME FRAME. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE...WINDS WILL EASE BACK TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD...AND WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT WOULD EXPECT TO RUN
BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL PUSH PEAKS UP AT 14 TO 16 ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 14 FT ON THE INNER WATERS
THIS EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANCE THIS WEEK...AS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES REMAINS OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL SEND SERIES OF FRONT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH NEXT ARRIVING LATER TUE. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...AND BUILDING SEAS.ROCKEY

 &&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON OUTER COASTAL
 WATERS...FROM 10 TO 60 MI OFFSHORE.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON INNER
 COASTAL WATERS...FROM 0 TO 10 MI OFFSHORE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 UNTIL 4 AM TODAY...THEN FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 190336
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
836 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE ARE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER IDAHO AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. STABLE
CALM CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A COLD FRONT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WET SYSTEMS
FOR THIS COMING WEEK...WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...MOVE
ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON MONDAY FOR MORE RAIN. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATER
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WETTER AND POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER IDAHO AND THE NEXT
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS
LED TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAD BEEN
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR EARLIER TODAY... BUT ONLY A
FEW REMAIN NEAR THE WILLAPA HILLS THIS EVENING. CALM AND STABLE
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
DECREASED...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WE ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR SCAPPOOSE.
EXPECT THE FOG TO INCREASE AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY NOT BREAK OUT MUCH UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TRICKY...BUT IF SUNSHINE DOES BREAK OUT...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE AT A 70 DEGREE DAY.

THE COAST THIS EVENING HAS MORE SOLID CLOUDS WITH PATCHIER FOG...AND
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING
TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS OVERNIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THIS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...SLOWLY MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS FRONT ARE
1.25 INCH OR A BIT HIGHER. THE MODELS HAVE DECENT QPF WITH IT AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A LOT OF COOLER AIR OFFSHORE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...AND SOME OF THAT MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF LIFTS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

THE MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER FRONT STARTING TO SPREAD IN LATER
TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN THAT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
PERSISTENT CYCLONE OVER GULF OF ALASKA KEEPS SPINNING SHORTWAVES OUR
WAY FROM THE WEST. WARM FRONT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO CROSS
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WARM SECTOR DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE OROGRAPHIC LIFT...
WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN MODEL QPF FORECASTS...GENERATING THE MOST
RAINFALL ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS GENERATED MAY MOVE  INLAND...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN
THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IN
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO STALL ALONG THE COAST RANGE AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS DISSIPATED FROM S TO N ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CLEARING SKIES..AND CALMING WINDS...EXPECT
AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT IF IS
LOCALLY DENSE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY FOR CIGS TO
CLEAR. THINGS ARE LESS CERTAIN FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...WHERE
STRATUS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR KONP WHERE THE FOG/STRATUS MAY LINGER ALL DAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROVIDE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 06Z GIVEN THE SMALL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD. FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND 20Z. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...A FRONT NEAR 130W TONIGHT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS SUN
EVENING. STILL EXPECT STRONGEST S WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN
OVER THE OUTER WATERS...BEYOND ABOUT 20 NM OF SHORE...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT WITHIN THE INNER WATERS. CURRENT
HEADLINES...HANDLING THIS FRONT WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER
FORECAST ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE
INNER WATERS...LOOK ON TRACK. SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE LARGELY WIND
DRIVEN AT FIRST...BUT A LARGER WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATER SUN
THROUGH MON OR TUE....WHERE WIND WAVES...FRESH SWELL..AND LONGER
PERIOD SWELL WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A TIME OF CONFUSED AND STEEP
SEAS. EXPECT THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS TO EXTEND THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
THROUGH TUE...WITH THE W SWELL KEEPING SEAS BIGGER AFTER WIND WAVES
DROP OFF. THE UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT WILL
SPIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS CIRCULATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE FETCH THAT WILL GENERATE A SERIES OF
LONGER PERIOD W-SW SWELLS PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS...LIKELY KEEPING
SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FT MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
ALSO SEND ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE OR
WED...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD GALES AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF LARGE SEAS. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM
     TO 4 AM PDT SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 11 AM
     TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 190336
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
836 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE ARE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER IDAHO AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. STABLE
CALM CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A COLD FRONT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WET SYSTEMS
FOR THIS COMING WEEK...WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...MOVE
ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON MONDAY FOR MORE RAIN. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATER
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WETTER AND POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER IDAHO AND THE NEXT
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS
LED TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAD BEEN
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR EARLIER TODAY... BUT ONLY A
FEW REMAIN NEAR THE WILLAPA HILLS THIS EVENING. CALM AND STABLE
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
DECREASED...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WE ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR SCAPPOOSE.
EXPECT THE FOG TO INCREASE AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY NOT BREAK OUT MUCH UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TRICKY...BUT IF SUNSHINE DOES BREAK OUT...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE AT A 70 DEGREE DAY.

THE COAST THIS EVENING HAS MORE SOLID CLOUDS WITH PATCHIER FOG...AND
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING
TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS OVERNIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THIS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...SLOWLY MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS FRONT ARE
1.25 INCH OR A BIT HIGHER. THE MODELS HAVE DECENT QPF WITH IT AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A LOT OF COOLER AIR OFFSHORE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...AND SOME OF THAT MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF LIFTS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

THE MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER FRONT STARTING TO SPREAD IN LATER
TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN THAT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
PERSISTENT CYCLONE OVER GULF OF ALASKA KEEPS SPINNING SHORTWAVES OUR
WAY FROM THE WEST. WARM FRONT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO CROSS
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WARM SECTOR DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE OROGRAPHIC LIFT...
WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN MODEL QPF FORECASTS...GENERATING THE MOST
RAINFALL ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS GENERATED MAY MOVE  INLAND...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN
THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IN
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO STALL ALONG THE COAST RANGE AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS DISSIPATED FROM S TO N ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CLEARING SKIES..AND CALMING WINDS...EXPECT
AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT IF IS
LOCALLY DENSE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY FOR CIGS TO
CLEAR. THINGS ARE LESS CERTAIN FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...WHERE
STRATUS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR KONP WHERE THE FOG/STRATUS MAY LINGER ALL DAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROVIDE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 06Z GIVEN THE SMALL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD. FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND 20Z. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...A FRONT NEAR 130W TONIGHT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS SUN
EVENING. STILL EXPECT STRONGEST S WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN
OVER THE OUTER WATERS...BEYOND ABOUT 20 NM OF SHORE...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT WITHIN THE INNER WATERS. CURRENT
HEADLINES...HANDLING THIS FRONT WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER
FORECAST ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE
INNER WATERS...LOOK ON TRACK. SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE LARGELY WIND
DRIVEN AT FIRST...BUT A LARGER WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATER SUN
THROUGH MON OR TUE....WHERE WIND WAVES...FRESH SWELL..AND LONGER
PERIOD SWELL WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A TIME OF CONFUSED AND STEEP
SEAS. EXPECT THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS TO EXTEND THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
THROUGH TUE...WITH THE W SWELL KEEPING SEAS BIGGER AFTER WIND WAVES
DROP OFF. THE UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT WILL
SPIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS CIRCULATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE FETCH THAT WILL GENERATE A SERIES OF
LONGER PERIOD W-SW SWELLS PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS...LIKELY KEEPING
SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FT MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
ALSO SEND ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE OR
WED...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD GALES AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF LARGE SEAS. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM
     TO 4 AM PDT SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 11 AM
     TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 190336
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
836 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE ARE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER IDAHO AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. STABLE
CALM CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A COLD FRONT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WET SYSTEMS
FOR THIS COMING WEEK...WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...MOVE
ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON MONDAY FOR MORE RAIN. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATER
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WETTER AND POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER IDAHO AND THE NEXT
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS
LED TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAD BEEN
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR EARLIER TODAY... BUT ONLY A
FEW REMAIN NEAR THE WILLAPA HILLS THIS EVENING. CALM AND STABLE
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
DECREASED...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WE ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR SCAPPOOSE.
EXPECT THE FOG TO INCREASE AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY NOT BREAK OUT MUCH UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TRICKY...BUT IF SUNSHINE DOES BREAK OUT...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE AT A 70 DEGREE DAY.

THE COAST THIS EVENING HAS MORE SOLID CLOUDS WITH PATCHIER FOG...AND
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING
TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS OVERNIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THIS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...SLOWLY MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS FRONT ARE
1.25 INCH OR A BIT HIGHER. THE MODELS HAVE DECENT QPF WITH IT AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A LOT OF COOLER AIR OFFSHORE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...AND SOME OF THAT MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF LIFTS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

THE MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER FRONT STARTING TO SPREAD IN LATER
TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN THAT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
PERSISTENT CYCLONE OVER GULF OF ALASKA KEEPS SPINNING SHORTWAVES OUR
WAY FROM THE WEST. WARM FRONT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO CROSS
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WARM SECTOR DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE OROGRAPHIC LIFT...
WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN MODEL QPF FORECASTS...GENERATING THE MOST
RAINFALL ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS GENERATED MAY MOVE  INLAND...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN
THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IN
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO STALL ALONG THE COAST RANGE AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS DISSIPATED FROM S TO N ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CLEARING SKIES..AND CALMING WINDS...EXPECT
AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT IF IS
LOCALLY DENSE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY FOR CIGS TO
CLEAR. THINGS ARE LESS CERTAIN FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...WHERE
STRATUS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR KONP WHERE THE FOG/STRATUS MAY LINGER ALL DAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROVIDE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 06Z GIVEN THE SMALL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD. FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND 20Z. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...A FRONT NEAR 130W TONIGHT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS SUN
EVENING. STILL EXPECT STRONGEST S WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN
OVER THE OUTER WATERS...BEYOND ABOUT 20 NM OF SHORE...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT WITHIN THE INNER WATERS. CURRENT
HEADLINES...HANDLING THIS FRONT WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER
FORECAST ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE
INNER WATERS...LOOK ON TRACK. SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE LARGELY WIND
DRIVEN AT FIRST...BUT A LARGER WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATER SUN
THROUGH MON OR TUE....WHERE WIND WAVES...FRESH SWELL..AND LONGER
PERIOD SWELL WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A TIME OF CONFUSED AND STEEP
SEAS. EXPECT THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS TO EXTEND THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
THROUGH TUE...WITH THE W SWELL KEEPING SEAS BIGGER AFTER WIND WAVES
DROP OFF. THE UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT WILL
SPIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS CIRCULATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE FETCH THAT WILL GENERATE A SERIES OF
LONGER PERIOD W-SW SWELLS PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS...LIKELY KEEPING
SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FT MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
ALSO SEND ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE OR
WED...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD GALES AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF LARGE SEAS. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM
     TO 4 AM PDT SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 11 AM
     TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 190336
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
836 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE ARE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER IDAHO AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. STABLE
CALM CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A COLD FRONT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WET SYSTEMS
FOR THIS COMING WEEK...WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...MOVE
ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON MONDAY FOR MORE RAIN. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATER
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WETTER AND POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER IDAHO AND THE NEXT
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS
LED TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAD BEEN
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR EARLIER TODAY... BUT ONLY A
FEW REMAIN NEAR THE WILLAPA HILLS THIS EVENING. CALM AND STABLE
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
DECREASED...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WE ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR SCAPPOOSE.
EXPECT THE FOG TO INCREASE AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY NOT BREAK OUT MUCH UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TRICKY...BUT IF SUNSHINE DOES BREAK OUT...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE AT A 70 DEGREE DAY.

THE COAST THIS EVENING HAS MORE SOLID CLOUDS WITH PATCHIER FOG...AND
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING
TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS OVERNIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THIS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...SLOWLY MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS FRONT ARE
1.25 INCH OR A BIT HIGHER. THE MODELS HAVE DECENT QPF WITH IT AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A LOT OF COOLER AIR OFFSHORE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...AND SOME OF THAT MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF LIFTS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

THE MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER FRONT STARTING TO SPREAD IN LATER
TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN THAT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
PERSISTENT CYCLONE OVER GULF OF ALASKA KEEPS SPINNING SHORTWAVES OUR
WAY FROM THE WEST. WARM FRONT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO CROSS
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WARM SECTOR DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE OROGRAPHIC LIFT...
WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN MODEL QPF FORECASTS...GENERATING THE MOST
RAINFALL ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS GENERATED MAY MOVE  INLAND...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN
THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IN
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO STALL ALONG THE COAST RANGE AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS DISSIPATED FROM S TO N ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CLEARING SKIES..AND CALMING WINDS...EXPECT
AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT IF IS
LOCALLY DENSE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY FOR CIGS TO
CLEAR. THINGS ARE LESS CERTAIN FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...WHERE
STRATUS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR KONP WHERE THE FOG/STRATUS MAY LINGER ALL DAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROVIDE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 06Z GIVEN THE SMALL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD. FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND 20Z. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...A FRONT NEAR 130W TONIGHT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS SUN
EVENING. STILL EXPECT STRONGEST S WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN
OVER THE OUTER WATERS...BEYOND ABOUT 20 NM OF SHORE...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT WITHIN THE INNER WATERS. CURRENT
HEADLINES...HANDLING THIS FRONT WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER
FORECAST ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE
INNER WATERS...LOOK ON TRACK. SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE LARGELY WIND
DRIVEN AT FIRST...BUT A LARGER WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATER SUN
THROUGH MON OR TUE....WHERE WIND WAVES...FRESH SWELL..AND LONGER
PERIOD SWELL WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A TIME OF CONFUSED AND STEEP
SEAS. EXPECT THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS TO EXTEND THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
THROUGH TUE...WITH THE W SWELL KEEPING SEAS BIGGER AFTER WIND WAVES
DROP OFF. THE UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT WILL
SPIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS CIRCULATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE FETCH THAT WILL GENERATE A SERIES OF
LONGER PERIOD W-SW SWELLS PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS...LIKELY KEEPING
SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FT MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
ALSO SEND ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE OR
WED...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD GALES AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF LARGE SEAS. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM
     TO 4 AM PDT SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 11 AM
     TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 182145
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NW WILL RETURN DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUN. A
COLD FRONT...THEN NEXT IN A SERIES OF WET SYSTEMS...WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON SUN NIGHT AND MON. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL FOLLOW MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW FAIRLY QUICKLY TUE NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON ITS
HEELS REACHING THE AREA WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING OVER NW OREGON AND
SW WA EARLY SAT AFTERNOON IN AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF MOISTURE. SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW WILL STABILIZE THE AIR MASS FURTHER
OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO CLEARING THIS EVENING...WHICH IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO SOME RADIATIONAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS REFORMING IN THE VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT. THE PACIFIC NW WILL SEE THE SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
SYSTEMS CONTINUE INTO SUN. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SOME SUNSHINE ON SUN WITH WARMER TEMPS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE E PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH IS A
COLD FRONT THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH. ECWMF
CONTINUES TO BE JUST A TAD QUICKER TO SPREAD FIRST THREAT OF RAIN
ONTO THE COAST AT THE END OF THE DAY SUN...THEN SLOWLY PUSHING
INLAND SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO JACK THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO CLOSE
TO 1.25 INCHES JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO WITH A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM POPS WILL BE CLOSE TO 100
PERCENT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIN BUT
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CAPE AS THE RESULT OF COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING
THE TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE VALLEYS. WITH HIGH POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AGAIN...SIMILAR TO THIS
PAST FRI.

BEHIND THE TROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MODELS AGREE THAT A MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE E PACIFIC. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE MON NIGHT WITH A LOW AND MID LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. BY TUE
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A BORAD
AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...SO WILL SPREAD INCREASING POPS INLAND
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TUE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS PERSISTENT CYCLONE OVER GULF OF ALASKA KEEPS
SPINNING SHORTWAVES OUR WAY FROM THE WEST. WARM FRONT OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO CROSS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STRONGEST FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN MODEL QPF
FORECASTS...GENERATING THE MOST RAINFALL ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE COAST RANGE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS GENERATED MAY MOVE
INLAND...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA. THE
COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
STALL ALONG THE COAST RANGE AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
-MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS STILL IMPROVING THROUGH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF MVFR CIGS ARE LINGERING AROUND THE THE COAST RANGE WESTWARD
PLUS KHIO AT THIS HOUR. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND STILL STAND TO CLEAR ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
PATCHY RADIATION FOG AND AT LEAST A 025 CIG DECK FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL LIKELY
LINGER ALONG THE COAST PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR KONP
WHERE THE IFR FOG/STRATUS LOOKS TO HANG ON ALL DAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...FAIRLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY EAST OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...AM LEANING
HEAVILY ON THE NAM DEPICTION OF HAVING A CIG DECK AT 025 DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS CLEAR DURING THE LATE MORNING BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AS TO TIMING AROUND 16Z OR CLOSER TO 19Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NEXT UPPER LOW IS DIGGING OFFSHORE WITH A SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING BUT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT LARGELY ONLY SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND ABOUT 20 NM. GIVEN THE LOW CENTER
TRAJECTORY PUSHING FAR NORTH...SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL SUPPORT A
LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND WEAKER
WINDS INSIDE OF 20 NM. THIS SET UP IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE MOST
RECENT STORM OF A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HAVE STARTED OUT BY HOISTING A
PAIR OF WIND/SEAS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THEN UPGRADED THE GALE
WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WILL HANDLE THE INNER
WATERS WITH A PAIR OF WIND/SEAS ADVISORIES. THIS INITIAL SET OF
PRODUCTS IS PLANNED TO EXPIRE LATE SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ELEVATED SEAS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEAS FROM EARLY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY WHERE WIND WAVES...FRESH SWELL...LONGER PERIOD WEST SWELL..
AND SOUTHWEST SWELL FROM HURRICANE ANA COME TOGETHER IN THE
WATERS. FULLY EXPECT ANOTHER SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
ISSUED ONCE THIS INITIAL SET OF STATEMENTS IS CLOSER TO EXPIRING.

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT WILL SPIN OVER THE NE
PACIFIC THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL PRODUCE FETCH THAT WILL GENERATE A SERIES OF LONGER PERIOD
W-SW SWELLS THROUGH THE WATERS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO SEND ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS NEXT WEEK...TUE OR WED. THIS
NEXT FRONT LOOKS STRONGER AND WILL PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
GALES...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE SEAS. JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
     7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PDT
     THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     4 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





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