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000
FXUS66 KPQR 231041
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 3
HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND
IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN WASHINGTON...WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231041
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 3
HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND
IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN WASHINGTON...WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 230531
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
930 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND LATE
TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON
PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO
CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER. VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN...BUT OVERALL THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING MORE STABLE.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES HAS ALSO DECREASED...SO WE
CANCELLED TONIGHTS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR TWO ABOVE 3500-4000 FT.

THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING THIS EVENING...
ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE WE COOLED LOW TEMPS
BY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS...AND ADDED A LITTLE MORE FOG
TO THE FORECAST.

LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...A WELL-DEFINED AND COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PUSHING INTO HAIDA GWAII...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING
OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL BE THE ONE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE WA COAST BY SUNRISE AND
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND
4000 FEET MUCH OF THE DAY. COMBINE THIS WITH DECENT OROGRAPHICS AND
STRONG JET DYNAMICS...AND IT APPEARS OUR SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH
WA CASCADES LOOKS GOOD. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE JET OVER WASHINGTON. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHARP QPF GRADIENT SOUTH OF
THE COLUMBIA. THEREFORE THE OREGON CASCADES REMAIN OUT OF THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY...BUT MOUNT HOOD MAY RECEIVE CLOSE TO THE
NECESSARY 6 INCHES FOR AN ADVISORY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE MUCH
LESS.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 256 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FEW UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THIS EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 4500 FEET. WEB CAMS SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
WILLAMETTE...SANTIAM...AND TOMBSTONE PASSES WHICH ARE AT AROUND
5100...4800...AND 4200 FEET RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 4000 AND 4000 FEET. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
CHANGE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS ARE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MORE SHOWERS OFFSHORE APPROACHING THE AREA. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED WITH THESE OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 7PM. SINCE THESE SHOWERS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO THE CASCADES UNTIL AROUND 9 PM AM HESITANT TO END THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT MIDNIGHT END
TIME...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A CONSIDERATE BREAK IN SHOWERS
BETWEEN 4 AND 9 PM.

THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. CLOUD BREAKS MAY LEAD TO
RADIATION COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM. THE
NORTH IS LESS LIKELY TO HAVE FOG DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
POSSIBLY CLOUDIER SKIES. THE CLOUDIER SKIES WILL BE DUE TO THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

DESPITE THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WILL SNEAK
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK WELL DEFINED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY YET...BUT THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN RAIN AT THE SW WASHINGTON SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

THE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHERE
THE SW WASHINGTON COAST AND THE WILLAPA HILLS CAN EXPECT AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES WILL SEE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS...AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET...AND POSSIBLY 4 TO 9 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ADDITIONAL SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
4000 FEET.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS FOR NW OREGON AND EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH TOTALS FROM 0.40
INCH JUST NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO 0.10 INCHES ACROSS LANE COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND EXPECT
MORE VALLEY FOG MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT NW
OREGON WILL BE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE TO THE SW AND ONE TO
THE NW. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARDS KEEPING THESE STORMS OFFSHORE
MONDAY AND HAVE REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF
THESE TWO STORMS WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE COAST AND
CASCADES.

THE TWO WEAK STORMS MAY MERGE OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING AND PUSH
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON THIS BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION AND RAISE SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OUT ON TUESDAY.
THEY TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH WHICH JUSTIFIED
LOWERING THE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT KEEPING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE VALLEY PARTICULARLY. THINK IT WILL STAY
WELL MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP VFR IN CONTROL AT THE COAST. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL WORK IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUN MORNING...BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERNMOST TAF SITES
STARTING BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR
LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUN MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z IF SKIES CLEAR OUT. A FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS IN BY
AROUND 18Z SUN. BOWEN/PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A GENERAL LULL IN W/NW WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT....BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT
BRINGS MORE SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON MON.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 12 TO 14 FT AND SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...SEAS MAY
INCREASE INTO THE MID TEENS. WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON MON AND
SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT UNTIL MIDWEEK. THE LATEST
ENP WAVE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THEY FALL BELOW 10 FT TUE OR WED.
BOWEN/PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 222256
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
256 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND LATE
TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SW
WASHINGTON SUNDAY MORNING. .MOVING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN RAIN MONDAY BEFORE A WARMER SYSTEM BRINGS
ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.THE NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FEW UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THIS EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 4500 FEET. WEB CAMS SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
WILLAMETTE...SANTIAM...AND TOMBSTONE PASSES WHICH ARE AT AROUND
5100...4800...AND 4200 FEET RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 4000 AND 4000 FEET. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
CHANGE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS ARE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MORE SHOWERS OFFSHORE APPROACHING THE AREA. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED WITH THESE OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 7PM. SINCE THESE SHOWERS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO THE CASCADES UNTIL AROUND 9 PM AM HESITANT TO END THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT MIDNIGHT END
TIME...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A CONSIDERATE BREAK IN SHOWERS
BETWEEN 4 AND 9 PM.

THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. CLOUD BREAKS MAY LEAD TO
RADIATION COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM. THE
NORTH IS LESS LIKELY TO HAVE FOG DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
POSSIBLY CLOUDIER SKIES. THE CLOUDIER SKIES WILL BE DUE TO THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

DESPITE THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WILL SNEAK
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK WELL DEFINED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY YET...BUT THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN RAIN AT THE SW WASHINGTON SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

THE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHERE
THE SW WASHINGTON COAST AND THE WILLAPA HILLS CAN EXPECT AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES WILL SEE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS...AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET...AND POSSIBLY 4 TO 9 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ADDITIONAL SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
4000 FEET.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS FOR NW OREGON AND EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH TOTALS FROM 0.40
INCH JUST NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO 0.10 INCHES ACROSS LANE COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND EXPECT
MORE VALLEY FOG MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT NW
OREGON WILL BE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE TO THE SW AND ONE TO
THE NW. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARDS KEEPING THESE STORMS OFFSHORE
MONDAY AND HAVE REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF
THESE TWO STORMS WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE COAST AND
CASCADES.

THE TWO WEAK STORMS MAY MERGE OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING AND PUSH
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON THIS BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION AND RAISE SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OUT ON TUESDAY.
THEY TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH WHICH JUSTIFIED
LOWERING THE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT KEEPING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON IN
A SHOWERY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH INCLUDING KEUG AND KSLE.
THINK IT WILL STAY WELL MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP VFR IN CONTROL AT THE
COAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SITES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
WORK IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUN MORNING...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN
AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERNMOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z. THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUN MORNING. A FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS IN
BY AROUND 18Z SUN. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLIER TODAY HAVE EASED SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE NOW AROUND 15 KT. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THAT WAS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LULL IN THE WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE YET
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON MON.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 12 TO 13 FT AND SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE A BIT MORE INTO THE MID
TEENS ON SUN. THE NEXT FRONT ON MON AND SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE
10 FT UNTIL MIDWEEK. THE LATEST ENP WAVE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THEY FALL BELOW 10 FT TUE OR WED.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221729
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS JUST BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED ONSHORE THIS MORNING
PROVIDING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS
BAND HAS NOW PUSHED INLAND AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT CONTINUED AS THE BAND MOVED INLAND
AS THE WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ADDED TO THE
INSTABILITY AND HELPED TRIGGER THE COASTAL STORMS. THE INSTABILITY
MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST THROUGH
THE EAST EDGE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
WEB CAMS SUGGESTING THE SNOW LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4500 FEET. WEB
CAMS SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES.
THE RAIN BAND THAT IS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY NOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE CASCADES LATER THIS MORNING...AND HELP SNOW TOTALS FOR THE
CASCADES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR 5-10 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 3500-4000 FT AND POSSIBLY A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT
BY TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES...AROUND 4500 FEET. THERE WILL
NOT BE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER PRODUCT. HOWEVER...WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT THE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.
TJ

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TJ/27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A FEW
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS MANAGED TO FORM EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
OVER THE PAST HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST THREAT ALONG THE COAST. BASED ON THE PATCHY FOG THAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR
EARLY SUN MORNING. WILL ADD A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW
STRATUS FOR WITH THE 18Z SET OF TAFS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN OCCASIONAL
BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS MAY AFFECT THE
TERMINAL EARLY SUN MORNING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT
THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS ON SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS ON
MON...LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
AND KEEPING SEAS ABOVE 10 FT. SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FT
BY TUE OR WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A
SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS LATE IN
THE WEEK. PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 221729
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS JUST BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED ONSHORE THIS MORNING
PROVIDING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS
BAND HAS NOW PUSHED INLAND AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT CONTINUED AS THE BAND MOVED INLAND
AS THE WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ADDED TO THE
INSTABILITY AND HELPED TRIGGER THE COASTAL STORMS. THE INSTABILITY
MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST THROUGH
THE EAST EDGE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
WEB CAMS SUGGESTING THE SNOW LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4500 FEET. WEB
CAMS SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES.
THE RAIN BAND THAT IS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY NOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE CASCADES LATER THIS MORNING...AND HELP SNOW TOTALS FOR THE
CASCADES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR 5-10 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 3500-4000 FT AND POSSIBLY A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT
BY TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES...AROUND 4500 FEET. THERE WILL
NOT BE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER PRODUCT. HOWEVER...WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT THE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.
TJ

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TJ/27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A FEW
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS MANAGED TO FORM EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
OVER THE PAST HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST THREAT ALONG THE COAST. BASED ON THE PATCHY FOG THAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR
EARLY SUN MORNING. WILL ADD A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW
STRATUS FOR WITH THE 18Z SET OF TAFS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN OCCASIONAL
BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS MAY AFFECT THE
TERMINAL EARLY SUN MORNING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT
THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS ON SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS ON
MON...LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
AND KEEPING SEAS ABOVE 10 FT. SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FT
BY TUE OR WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A
SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS LATE IN
THE WEEK. PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES THIS MORNING...ALLOWING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DROPPED ANYWHERE
FROM 0.02-0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND NEARLY 0.50
INCHES OVER THE CASCADES EARLY TODAY. THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS ALREADY NUDGING IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPING
UP ON THE KLGX RADAR OVER THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TIME ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS WITH THE EMBEDDED LIGHTNING REACHING THE COAST IS
LOOKING AROUND 6-7AM PST IF THEY STAY ON THE SAME TRACK. SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY UNDER THIS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
BELOW CASCADE PASSES LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES TODAY...WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOW
SHOWERS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE PASSES. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...EXTENDING IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS LINGER.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. /27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED. KONP...KSLE...AND KHIO WILL
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT A TAF SITE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE IS LOW. WITH THAT SAID A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INSIDE 130W
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY CONTINUE ON THEIR PATH
TOWARDS THE NORTH OREGON COAST. ASSUMING THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE LINEARLY...BOTH PRETTY BIG ASSUMPTIONS...THEY
SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KAST AROUND 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. IN CONTRAST...SEAS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TODAY...BEFORE
DROPPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND
GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON WATERS ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. REGARDLESS...
SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ON
SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 10 FT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE
FURTHER. A SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
    CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
   60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
    PST SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES THIS MORNING...ALLOWING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DROPPED ANYWHERE
FROM 0.02-0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND NEARLY 0.50
INCHES OVER THE CASCADES EARLY TODAY. THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS ALREADY NUDGING IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPING
UP ON THE KLGX RADAR OVER THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TIME ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS WITH THE EMBEDDED LIGHTNING REACHING THE COAST IS
LOOKING AROUND 6-7AM PST IF THEY STAY ON THE SAME TRACK. SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY UNDER THIS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
BELOW CASCADE PASSES LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES TODAY...WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOW
SHOWERS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE PASSES. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...EXTENDING IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS LINGER.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. /27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED. KONP...KSLE...AND KHIO WILL
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT A TAF SITE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE IS LOW. WITH THAT SAID A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INSIDE 130W
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY CONTINUE ON THEIR PATH
TOWARDS THE NORTH OREGON COAST. ASSUMING THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE LINEARLY...BOTH PRETTY BIG ASSUMPTIONS...THEY
SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KAST AROUND 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. IN CONTRAST...SEAS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TODAY...BEFORE
DROPPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND
GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON WATERS ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. REGARDLESS...
SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ON
SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 10 FT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE
FURTHER. A SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
    CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
   60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
    PST SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 221026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES THIS MORNING...ALLOWING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DROPPED ANYWHERE
FROM 0.02-0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND NEARLY 0.50
INCHES OVER THE CASCADES EARLY TODAY. THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS ALREADY NUDGING IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPING
UP ON THE KLGX RADAR OVER THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TIME ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS WITH THE EMBEDDED LIGHTNING REACHING THE COAST IS
LOOKING AROUND 6-7AM PST IF THEY STAY ON THE SAME TRACK. SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY UNDER THIS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
BELOW CASCADE PASSES LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES TODAY...WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOW
SHOWERS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE PASSES. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...EXTENDING IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS LINGER.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. /27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED. KONP...KSLE...AND KHIO WILL
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT A TAF SITE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE IS LOW. WITH THAT SAID A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INSIDE 130W
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY CONTINUE ON THEIR PATH
TOWARDS THE NORTH OREGON COAST. ASSUMING THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE LINEARLY...BOTH PRETTY BIG ASSUMPTIONS...THEY
SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KAST AROUND 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. IN CONTRAST...SEAS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TODAY...BEFORE
DROPPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND
GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON WATERS ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. REGARDLESS...
SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ON
SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 10 FT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE
FURTHER. A SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
    CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
   60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
    PST SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES THIS MORNING...ALLOWING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DROPPED ANYWHERE
FROM 0.02-0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND NEARLY 0.50
INCHES OVER THE CASCADES EARLY TODAY. THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS ALREADY NUDGING IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPING
UP ON THE KLGX RADAR OVER THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TIME ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS WITH THE EMBEDDED LIGHTNING REACHING THE COAST IS
LOOKING AROUND 6-7AM PST IF THEY STAY ON THE SAME TRACK. SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY UNDER THIS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
BELOW CASCADE PASSES LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES TODAY...WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOW
SHOWERS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE PASSES. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...EXTENDING IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS LINGER.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. /27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED. KONP...KSLE...AND KHIO WILL
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT A TAF SITE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE IS LOW. WITH THAT SAID A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INSIDE 130W
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY CONTINUE ON THEIR PATH
TOWARDS THE NORTH OREGON COAST. ASSUMING THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE LINEARLY...BOTH PRETTY BIG ASSUMPTIONS...THEY
SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KAST AROUND 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. IN CONTRAST...SEAS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TODAY...BEFORE
DROPPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND
GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON WATERS ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. REGARDLESS...
SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ON
SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 10 FT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE
FURTHER. A SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
    CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
   60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
    PST SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 220524
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE TODAY...BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. AS OF 9 PM THIS
EVENING THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT HOOD RIVER TO CORVALLIS...WITH
GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OREGON OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AIR
MASS WHICH WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO
MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM...A POTENT COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
ABOUT HOOD RIVER TO CORVALLIS...MOVING E-SE AT ABOUT 30 MPH. GUSTY
S-SW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 0.50-1.00 INCH FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A COUPLE SPOTS
EXCEEDING 2.50 INCHES IN THE S WA CASCADES AND N OR COAST RANGE.

COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO DROP
BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR CASCADES ZONES...THIS
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE
3500-4000 FT ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE COAST
SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS WHICH COULD PUSH TEMPS UP
ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...WHICH IS GENERALLY AROUND 50 DEG F
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. LOOKING OFFSHORE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A BIT OF A TRIGGER...IN THE FORM OF A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH NEAR 134W. THEREFORE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
INLAND FROM THE COAST/COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS SAT
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 347 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG AND MOIST LOW PRES SYSTEM IS BRINGING A RETURN
TO SEASONAL PAC NW LATE FALL WEATHER TODAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING WARM
FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM AS SEEN ON AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OFFSHORE. SO FAR MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN...WHILE SOME SITES IN THE NORTHERN COAST RANGE ARE CLOSING IN ON
AN INCH. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
IS NOW SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON THE VELOCITY DATA OF THE LOWEST
ELEVATION SCAN OF THE KLGX RADAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL
START PUSHING ONTO THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG SW WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL SWITCH TO
WESTERLY AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...BUT EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE OVER BEFORE THEN.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TO WELL ABOVE 6000 FEET
TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP SHARPLY TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SAT IN GOOD
WEST/NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N OREGON...AND LANE COUNTY CASCADE
ZONES FROM EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING. EXPECT 5 TO 10
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE PASSES THROUGH SAT EVENING...WITH WELL
OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUN...POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE...AS NEAR SHORE OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S IN
MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE FCST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO
THE FCST AT THIS TIME. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC LATE SUN
INTO MON AND REMAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY. THE LATEST FCST
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH SPREADING RAIN INTO
SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD.
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SOME OVERNIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN...OSCILLATING SOME BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. WINDS TURN WEST
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST EARLY
SATURDAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SO ISOLATED THAT HAVE NOT MENTIONED.
INLAND...EXPECT VFR CIGS BY 18-20Z IF NOT ALREADY...WITH MVFR
STILL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS
THE BOARD IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL LOW MVFR WITH RAIN.
WINDS DECREASING AND TURNING MORE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BOWEN


&&

.MARINE...THE COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE. AS
SUCH...HAVE CANCELLED GALE WARNING AND REPLACED WITH SCA FOR BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS. WITH BUOYS 29 AND 89 ALREADY SHOWING MARGINAL SCA
WINDS...MAY NOT NEED IT FOR THE FULL TIME BUT HAVE ERRED ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION FOR NOW. SEAS HAVE DECREASED SOME AND WILL RELAX
TO AROUND 13 FT BY VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...STAYING AROUND
THAT LEVEL THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT SWELL MOVES IN. SEAS LOOK
LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOWEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 220524
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE TODAY...BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. AS OF 9 PM THIS
EVENING THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT HOOD RIVER TO CORVALLIS...WITH
GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OREGON OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AIR
MASS WHICH WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO
MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM...A POTENT COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
ABOUT HOOD RIVER TO CORVALLIS...MOVING E-SE AT ABOUT 30 MPH. GUSTY
S-SW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 0.50-1.00 INCH FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A COUPLE SPOTS
EXCEEDING 2.50 INCHES IN THE S WA CASCADES AND N OR COAST RANGE.

COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO DROP
BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR CASCADES ZONES...THIS
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE
3500-4000 FT ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE COAST
SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS WHICH COULD PUSH TEMPS UP
ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...WHICH IS GENERALLY AROUND 50 DEG F
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. LOOKING OFFSHORE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A BIT OF A TRIGGER...IN THE FORM OF A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH NEAR 134W. THEREFORE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
INLAND FROM THE COAST/COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS SAT
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 347 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG AND MOIST LOW PRES SYSTEM IS BRINGING A RETURN
TO SEASONAL PAC NW LATE FALL WEATHER TODAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING WARM
FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM AS SEEN ON AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OFFSHORE. SO FAR MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN...WHILE SOME SITES IN THE NORTHERN COAST RANGE ARE CLOSING IN ON
AN INCH. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
IS NOW SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON THE VELOCITY DATA OF THE LOWEST
ELEVATION SCAN OF THE KLGX RADAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL
START PUSHING ONTO THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG SW WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL SWITCH TO
WESTERLY AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...BUT EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE OVER BEFORE THEN.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TO WELL ABOVE 6000 FEET
TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP SHARPLY TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SAT IN GOOD
WEST/NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N OREGON...AND LANE COUNTY CASCADE
ZONES FROM EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING. EXPECT 5 TO 10
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE PASSES THROUGH SAT EVENING...WITH WELL
OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUN...POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE...AS NEAR SHORE OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S IN
MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE FCST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO
THE FCST AT THIS TIME. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC LATE SUN
INTO MON AND REMAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY. THE LATEST FCST
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH SPREADING RAIN INTO
SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD.
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SOME OVERNIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN...OSCILLATING SOME BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. WINDS TURN WEST
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST EARLY
SATURDAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SO ISOLATED THAT HAVE NOT MENTIONED.
INLAND...EXPECT VFR CIGS BY 18-20Z IF NOT ALREADY...WITH MVFR
STILL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS
THE BOARD IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL LOW MVFR WITH RAIN.
WINDS DECREASING AND TURNING MORE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BOWEN


&&

.MARINE...THE COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE. AS
SUCH...HAVE CANCELLED GALE WARNING AND REPLACED WITH SCA FOR BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS. WITH BUOYS 29 AND 89 ALREADY SHOWING MARGINAL SCA
WINDS...MAY NOT NEED IT FOR THE FULL TIME BUT HAVE ERRED ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION FOR NOW. SEAS HAVE DECREASED SOME AND WILL RELAX
TO AROUND 13 FT BY VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...STAYING AROUND
THAT LEVEL THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT SWELL MOVES IN. SEAS LOOK
LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOWEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 212348
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
347 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE
TODAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
AND VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SHARPLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...REACHING DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASSES
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG AND MOIST LOW PRES SYSTEM IS BRINGING A RETURN
TO SEASONAL PAC NW LATE FALL WEATHER TODAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING WARM
FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM AS SEEN ON AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OFFSHORE. SO FAR MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN...WHILE SOME SITES IN THE NORTHERN COAST RANGE ARE CLOSING IN ON
AN INCH. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
IS NOW SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON THE VELOCITY DATA OF THE LOWEST
ELEVATION SCAN OF THE KLGX RADAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL
START PUSHING ONTO THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG SW WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL SWITCH TO
WESTERLY AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...BUT EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE OVER BEFORE THEN.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TO WELL ABOVE 6000 FEET
TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP SHARPLY TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SAT IN GOOD
WEST/NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N OREGON...AND LANE COUNTY CASCADE
ZONES FROM EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING. EXPECT 5 TO 10
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE PASSES THROUGH SAT EVENING...WITH WELL
OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUN...POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE...AS NEAR SHORE OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S IN
MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE FCST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO
THE FCST AT THIS TIME. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC LATE SUN
INTO MON AND REMAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY. THE LATEST FCST
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH SPREADING RAIN INTO
SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD.
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
VALLEY...WHILE HIGH WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. LLWS LIKELY AT
KTTD AS SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TO 30-50 KTS ABOVE THE LOW- LEVEL
EASTERLIES...BELOW FL030. THIS SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
EASTERLIES WEAKEN.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING
CIGS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST EARLY TOMORROW. INLAND...EXPECT CIGS TO BEGIN LIFTING AROUND
16Z. INLAND SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 18-20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR OCCASIONALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AROUND
03Z...AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT AROUND 16Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z.

-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY GALES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. SEAS
NEAR 15 FT ALONG THE NORTH COAST...18FT BEING OBSERVED AT BUOY 50
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING...PEAKING AROUND 22 FT
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND AROUND 20 FT ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND...WITH WINDS REACHING 40 TO 45 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
ABOVE 50 KTS MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS NEAR THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...DROPPING TO 15 TO 20
KTS OVERNIGHT.

SEAS TOMORROW LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 13 TO 14 FT TOMORROW. ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WEAKER...BUT SEAS IN THE LOW TEENS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SEAS BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS ON SUNDAY.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
    OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
    SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 212348
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
347 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE
TODAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
AND VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SHARPLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...REACHING DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASSES
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG AND MOIST LOW PRES SYSTEM IS BRINGING A RETURN
TO SEASONAL PAC NW LATE FALL WEATHER TODAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING WARM
FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM AS SEEN ON AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OFFSHORE. SO FAR MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN...WHILE SOME SITES IN THE NORTHERN COAST RANGE ARE CLOSING IN ON
AN INCH. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
IS NOW SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON THE VELOCITY DATA OF THE LOWEST
ELEVATION SCAN OF THE KLGX RADAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL
START PUSHING ONTO THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG SW WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL SWITCH TO
WESTERLY AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...BUT EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE OVER BEFORE THEN.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TO WELL ABOVE 6000 FEET
TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP SHARPLY TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SAT IN GOOD
WEST/NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N OREGON...AND LANE COUNTY CASCADE
ZONES FROM EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING. EXPECT 5 TO 10
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE PASSES THROUGH SAT EVENING...WITH WELL
OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUN...POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE...AS NEAR SHORE OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S IN
MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE FCST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO
THE FCST AT THIS TIME. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC LATE SUN
INTO MON AND REMAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY. THE LATEST FCST
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH SPREADING RAIN INTO
SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD.
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
VALLEY...WHILE HIGH WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. LLWS LIKELY AT
KTTD AS SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TO 30-50 KTS ABOVE THE LOW- LEVEL
EASTERLIES...BELOW FL030. THIS SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
EASTERLIES WEAKEN.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING
CIGS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST EARLY TOMORROW. INLAND...EXPECT CIGS TO BEGIN LIFTING AROUND
16Z. INLAND SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 18-20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR OCCASIONALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AROUND
03Z...AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT AROUND 16Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z.

-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY GALES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. SEAS
NEAR 15 FT ALONG THE NORTH COAST...18FT BEING OBSERVED AT BUOY 50
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING...PEAKING AROUND 22 FT
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND AROUND 20 FT ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND...WITH WINDS REACHING 40 TO 45 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
ABOVE 50 KTS MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS NEAR THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...DROPPING TO 15 TO 20
KTS OVERNIGHT.

SEAS TOMORROW LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 13 TO 14 FT TOMORROW. ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WEAKER...BUT SEAS IN THE LOW TEENS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SEAS BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS ON SUNDAY.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
    OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
    SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211741
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY COASTAL WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY SATURDAY
WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT
SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE NW COAST TODAY...RIDING A ROBUST 160+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET. A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING WARM FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST SO FAR...BUT WILL
PROCEED INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME TEMPS AROUND FREEZING IN
THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY...SO
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY ICING CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MIDDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO INCLUDE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AS
WELL. IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE LOW MIGHT BE TRACKING A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR AREAS
LIKE CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT TO PICK UP A FEW HIGH WIND CRITERIA GUSTS.
OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MARGINAL WIND EVENT. SOME
BEACH AND EXPOSED HEADLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH...BUT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 4 TO 6 PM...AFTER WHICH THE COASTAL WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
RAPIDLY. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON SATURDAY. LIFTED
INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK VORT MAX THAT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE INSTABILITY. SO HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND TO
THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS
WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. PYLE/26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...LIFTING MOST THE AREA TO VFR CIGS. MAY
BE SOME SPEED SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND...AS SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030. EXPECT MIX OF VFR
AND MVFR TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MAY KEEP CIGS MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
06Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN THIS
EVENING...BRINGING CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR AND SOME IFR TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING...THOUGH
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 KTS AT THE SURFACE TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DECREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT AROUND 06Z TO
09Z THIS EVENING.

-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 CURRENTLY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOLID GALES
WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS
WITH A COASTAL JET. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

SEAS 10 TO 12 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
NEAR 20 FT BY 4-6PM THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT...DROPPING TO 12 TO 14 FT BY MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS ABOVE 10 FT LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
    OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211741
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY COASTAL WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY SATURDAY
WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT
SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE NW COAST TODAY...RIDING A ROBUST 160+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET. A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING WARM FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST SO FAR...BUT WILL
PROCEED INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME TEMPS AROUND FREEZING IN
THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY...SO
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY ICING CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MIDDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO INCLUDE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AS
WELL. IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE LOW MIGHT BE TRACKING A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR AREAS
LIKE CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT TO PICK UP A FEW HIGH WIND CRITERIA GUSTS.
OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MARGINAL WIND EVENT. SOME
BEACH AND EXPOSED HEADLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH...BUT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 4 TO 6 PM...AFTER WHICH THE COASTAL WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
RAPIDLY. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON SATURDAY. LIFTED
INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK VORT MAX THAT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE INSTABILITY. SO HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND TO
THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS
WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. PYLE/26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...LIFTING MOST THE AREA TO VFR CIGS. MAY
BE SOME SPEED SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND...AS SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030. EXPECT MIX OF VFR
AND MVFR TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MAY KEEP CIGS MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
06Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN THIS
EVENING...BRINGING CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR AND SOME IFR TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING...THOUGH
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 KTS AT THE SURFACE TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DECREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT AROUND 06Z TO
09Z THIS EVENING.

-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 CURRENTLY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOLID GALES
WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS
WITH A COASTAL JET. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

SEAS 10 TO 12 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
NEAR 20 FT BY 4-6PM THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT...DROPPING TO 12 TO 14 FT BY MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS ABOVE 10 FT LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
    OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
323 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE MILD FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY. THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ARRIVES TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE
NORTH PACIFIC 150 KT JETSTREAM. THE WARM FRONT PORTION WILL REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
WIND...COASTAL WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR HIGH WINDS BUT BELIEVE THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60
MPH AT THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.  PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 950 MB WINDS ALIGN ALONG THE COAST
JUST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE...A SHORT
WINDOW.   THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW ON THE FRONT MORE THAN NAM AND
GFS...BUT PLACES IT CLOSER THE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.INLAND
VALLEYS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS HAS NOT COOLED VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT.  MOST TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. TIMING OF THE PCPN AND
EXPECTED WARMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS AND
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

RAIN AMOUNTS...A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

CONVECTION...500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
VORT MAX THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE
INSTABILITY. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS AND INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED AS WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALSO FOR THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AS SO WILL
END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE IFR AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR AFTER 21Z TODAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING RAIN DROPS CONDITIONS TO MVFR BY 18Z
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH E TO SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY 18Z TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM
21Z FRI-03Z SAT OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. 06Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE REPLACED THE STORM WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS 10 NM FROM THE SHORELINE. STILL
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COASTAL
JET SITUATION. WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS AT 10 FT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...BEFORE QUICKLY BUILDING
BY NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD
GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
WITH A LARGE WIND- WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN FROM NOON TODAY TO
     10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
323 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE MILD FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY. THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ARRIVES TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE
NORTH PACIFIC 150 KT JETSTREAM. THE WARM FRONT PORTION WILL REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
WIND...COASTAL WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR HIGH WINDS BUT BELIEVE THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60
MPH AT THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.  PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 950 MB WINDS ALIGN ALONG THE COAST
JUST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE...A SHORT
WINDOW.   THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW ON THE FRONT MORE THAN NAM AND
GFS...BUT PLACES IT CLOSER THE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.INLAND
VALLEYS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS HAS NOT COOLED VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT.  MOST TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. TIMING OF THE PCPN AND
EXPECTED WARMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS AND
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

RAIN AMOUNTS...A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

CONVECTION...500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
VORT MAX THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE
INSTABILITY. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS AND INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED AS WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALSO FOR THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AS SO WILL
END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE IFR AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR AFTER 21Z TODAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING RAIN DROPS CONDITIONS TO MVFR BY 18Z
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH E TO SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY 18Z TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM
21Z FRI-03Z SAT OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. 06Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE REPLACED THE STORM WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS 10 NM FROM THE SHORELINE. STILL
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COASTAL
JET SITUATION. WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS AT 10 FT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...BEFORE QUICKLY BUILDING
BY NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD
GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
WITH A LARGE WIND- WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN FROM NOON TODAY TO
     10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
323 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE MILD FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY. THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ARRIVES TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE
NORTH PACIFIC 150 KT JETSTREAM. THE WARM FRONT PORTION WILL REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
WIND...COASTAL WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR HIGH WINDS BUT BELIEVE THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60
MPH AT THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.  PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 950 MB WINDS ALIGN ALONG THE COAST
JUST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE...A SHORT
WINDOW.   THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW ON THE FRONT MORE THAN NAM AND
GFS...BUT PLACES IT CLOSER THE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.INLAND
VALLEYS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS HAS NOT COOLED VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT.  MOST TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. TIMING OF THE PCPN AND
EXPECTED WARMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS AND
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

RAIN AMOUNTS...A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

CONVECTION...500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
VORT MAX THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE
INSTABILITY. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS AND INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED AS WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALSO FOR THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AS SO WILL
END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE IFR AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR AFTER 21Z TODAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING RAIN DROPS CONDITIONS TO MVFR BY 18Z
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH E TO SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY 18Z TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM
21Z FRI-03Z SAT OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. 06Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE REPLACED THE STORM WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS 10 NM FROM THE SHORELINE. STILL
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COASTAL
JET SITUATION. WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS AT 10 FT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...BEFORE QUICKLY BUILDING
BY NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD
GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
WITH A LARGE WIND- WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN FROM NOON TODAY TO
     10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
303 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE MILD FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY. THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ARRIVES TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE
NORTH PACIFIC 150 KT JETSTREAM. THE WARM FRONT PORTION WILL REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
WIND...COASTAL WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR HIGH WINDS BUT BELIEVE THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60
MPH AT THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.  PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 950 MB WINDS ALIGN ALONG THE COAST
JUST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE...A SHORT
WINDOW.   THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW ON THE FRONT MORE THAN NAM AND
GFS...BUT PLACES IT CLOSER THE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.INLAND
VALLEYS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS HAS NOT COOLED VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT.  MOST TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. TIMING OF THE PCPN AND
EXPECTED WARMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS AND
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

RAIN AMOUNTS...A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

CONVECTION...500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
VORT MAX THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE
INSTABILITY. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS AND INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED AS WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALSO FOR THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AS SO WILL
END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE IFR AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR AFTER 21Z TODAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING RAIN DROPS CONDITIONS TO MVFR BY 18Z
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH E TO SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY 18Z TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM
21Z FRI-03Z SAT OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. 06Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE REPLACED THE STORM WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS 10 NM FROM THE SHORELINE. STILL
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COASTAL
JET SITUATION. WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS AT 10 FT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...BEFORE QUICKLY BUILDING
BY NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD
GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
WITH A LARGE WIND- WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN FROM NOON TODAY TO
     10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
303 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE MILD FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY. THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ARRIVES TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE
NORTH PACIFIC 150 KT JETSTREAM. THE WARM FRONT PORTION WILL REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
WIND...COASTAL WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR HIGH WINDS BUT BELIEVE THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60
MPH AT THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.  PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 950 MB WINDS ALIGN ALONG THE COAST
JUST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE...A SHORT
WINDOW.   THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW ON THE FRONT MORE THAN NAM AND
GFS...BUT PLACES IT CLOSER THE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.INLAND
VALLEYS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS HAS NOT COOLED VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT.  MOST TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. TIMING OF THE PCPN AND
EXPECTED WARMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS AND
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

RAIN AMOUNTS...A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

CONVECTION...500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
VORT MAX THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE
INSTABILITY. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS AND INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED AS WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALSO FOR THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AS SO WILL
END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE IFR AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR AFTER 21Z TODAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING RAIN DROPS CONDITIONS TO MVFR BY 18Z
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH E TO SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY 18Z TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM
21Z FRI-03Z SAT OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. 06Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE REPLACED THE STORM WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS 10 NM FROM THE SHORELINE. STILL
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COASTAL
JET SITUATION. WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS AT 10 FT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...BEFORE QUICKLY BUILDING
BY NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD
GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
WITH A LARGE WIND- WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN FROM NOON TODAY TO
     10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
303 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE MILD FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY. THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ARRIVES TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE
NORTH PACIFIC 150 KT JETSTREAM. THE WARM FRONT PORTION WILL REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
WIND...COASTAL WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR HIGH WINDS BUT BELIEVE THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60
MPH AT THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.  PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 950 MB WINDS ALIGN ALONG THE COAST
JUST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE...A SHORT
WINDOW.   THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW ON THE FRONT MORE THAN NAM AND
GFS...BUT PLACES IT CLOSER THE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.INLAND
VALLEYS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS HAS NOT COOLED VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT.  MOST TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. TIMING OF THE PCPN AND
EXPECTED WARMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS AND
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

RAIN AMOUNTS...A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

CONVECTION...500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
VORT MAX THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE
INSTABILITY. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS AND INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED AS WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALSO FOR THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AS SO WILL
END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE IFR AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR AFTER 21Z TODAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING RAIN DROPS CONDITIONS TO MVFR BY 18Z
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH E TO SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY 18Z TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM
21Z FRI-03Z SAT OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. 06Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE REPLACED THE STORM WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS 10 NM FROM THE SHORELINE. STILL
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COASTAL
JET SITUATION. WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS AT 10 FT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...BEFORE QUICKLY BUILDING
BY NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD
GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
WITH A LARGE WIND- WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN FROM NOON TODAY TO
     10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 210409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
808 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE OTHER OVER CALIFORNIA. IN
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY...SO SOME VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
STRONG AND MOIST FRONT WILL BRING HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG COASTAL
WINDS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVEL THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
TO MAKE IT MORE CONSISTENT WITH CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS EVENING.
FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS...WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1/4 MILE AT MCMINNVILLE AIRPORT WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. MILD
AND MOIST PACIFIC AIR IS RUNNING OVER GROUND THAT IS BOTH MOIST AND
COOL... LIKELY AIDING THE FORMATION OF FOG DESPITE HIGHER CLOUD
COVER. AWAY FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S...AND
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES AT MOST. THEREFORE
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG. DECIDED AGAINST WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER...BUT IF THESE CLOUDS CLEAR IT IS
LIKELY FOG WILL QUICKLY BECOME DENSE. LUCKILY MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND
NEARBY PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH FORCING...THUS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT. 00Z
NAM BUFR AND UW 4KM WRF-GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO SATURATION
IN THE COLUMN BELOW -5 DEG C...SO MOST PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN STILL CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL HASSLES...BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY FELT IN
THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY.

WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE...WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
HANDLES IT WELL. DECIDED TO PUSH THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO
UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO THE NEXT SHIFT...AS THERE IS STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW STRONG THE COASTAL WINDS
WILL BE. 00Z NAM DOES HAVE A 60-65 KT COASTAL JET DOWN TO 900 MB
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
BEACHES/HEADLANDS HIGH WIND EVENT. HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE
COMPLICATIONS...A SECONDARY SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME DOMINANT AS THE FIRST FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS
COULD ROB SOME OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE COAST AND THEREFORE PREVENT
WINDS FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG WITH THE PRELIMINARY FRONT.
ALSO...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SECONDARY LOW...IT COULD BECOME
A BIT WINDY INLAND AS WELL. WILL HOLD FOR FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE
BEFORE MAKING ANY LAND WARNING/ADVISORY DECISIONS.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 315 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE
MOVING ONSHORE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW
TO THE NORTH IS MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WHILE THE
OTHER SITS ALONG THE S OREGON AND N CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. IN BETWEEN...WE ARE SEEING ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON AS THE HIGHLY STRETCHED UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. ALSO...THE LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR
NOW. THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON THE CLEARING SKIES OFFSHORE APPARENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE...THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
TO FORM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG 150+ KT JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW TOMORROW. THIS
WILL DRIVE A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM ONSHORE LATER TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A REGION OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE THAT WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AS THE LEADING WARM FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. WE EXPECT A
BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO AROUND AN INCH. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A BURST OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CORE OF
60 KT WINDS AT 925 MB ARE BEING ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z NAM...GFS...
AND ECMWF RUNS. WILL CONFINE THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE BEACHES AND
COASTAL HEADLANDS...WHERE GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT WILL LIMIT WIND
GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH FOR NOW.

IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT FREEZING RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
BASED ON THE WARMING TEMPS SEEN TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND THE FCST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP TOMORROW. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF
FREEZING RAIN AROUND HOOD RIVER AND IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SOME PATCHY SPOTS OF ICE ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE EVENING...WHICH WILL WARM
THINGS UP CONSIDERABLY AND PUT AN END TO ANY ICE CONCERNS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS
TO REMAIN BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN DECENT OROGRAPHIC FLOW. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
PERIOD OF BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVERNIGHT SAT INTO EARLY
SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. PYLE


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AS OF 04Z WITH MUCH OF THE COAST
IN MVFR CONDITIONS. ALREADY STARTING TO GET IFR AND LIFR VIS IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT THIS GENERAL MIX TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING IFR AND LIFR IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.
AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA GORGE WILL STAY VFR WITH DUE TO EAST WIND.
RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST 12-15Z FRI AND THEN INTENSIFY
AFTER 20Z. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOW-END MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND. RAIN SPREADS
INLAND DURING THE DAY FRI...WITH MAINLY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI MORNING...
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN APPROACHES
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. INCREASING RAIN AFTER 18Z
FRI RESULTING IN MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES FRI AFTERNOON WITH E TO
SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020 BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HAVE EASED A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT STILL
HOVERING AT OR CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR WIND THROUGH 18Z FRI. STRONG
GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRI...WITH COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...LOCALIZED 40-45 KT SUSTAINED WIND WITH GUSTS 50-55 KT
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ABOUT 10 NM FROM SHORELINE. LATEST NAM
RUN NOT QUITE AS STRONG...KEEPING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT OVER THE
SRN OREGON WATERS. 00Z GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
SPEEDS FRI AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS MODEL DISCREPANCY WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WARNINGS AND THE STORM WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. WIND SPEEDS
SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SEAS AT 10 FT OR JUST UNDER AS OF 04Z. SEAS FORECAST TO BE
PRIMARILY 9 FT THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EDGE ABOVE 10 FT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS STARTING AT 08Z. SEAS QUICKLY BUILD FRI WITH THE STRONG GALE
OR NEAR STORM-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET
LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH A LARGE WIND-
WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF FAIRLY FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM MIDNIGHT
     TONIGHT TO 6 AM PST FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON TO
     10 PM PST FRIDAY.

     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 210409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
808 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE OTHER OVER CALIFORNIA. IN
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY...SO SOME VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
STRONG AND MOIST FRONT WILL BRING HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG COASTAL
WINDS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVEL THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
TO MAKE IT MORE CONSISTENT WITH CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS EVENING.
FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS...WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1/4 MILE AT MCMINNVILLE AIRPORT WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. MILD
AND MOIST PACIFIC AIR IS RUNNING OVER GROUND THAT IS BOTH MOIST AND
COOL... LIKELY AIDING THE FORMATION OF FOG DESPITE HIGHER CLOUD
COVER. AWAY FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S...AND
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES AT MOST. THEREFORE
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG. DECIDED AGAINST WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER...BUT IF THESE CLOUDS CLEAR IT IS
LIKELY FOG WILL QUICKLY BECOME DENSE. LUCKILY MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND
NEARBY PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH FORCING...THUS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT. 00Z
NAM BUFR AND UW 4KM WRF-GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO SATURATION
IN THE COLUMN BELOW -5 DEG C...SO MOST PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN STILL CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL HASSLES...BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY FELT IN
THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY.

WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE...WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
HANDLES IT WELL. DECIDED TO PUSH THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO
UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO THE NEXT SHIFT...AS THERE IS STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW STRONG THE COASTAL WINDS
WILL BE. 00Z NAM DOES HAVE A 60-65 KT COASTAL JET DOWN TO 900 MB
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
BEACHES/HEADLANDS HIGH WIND EVENT. HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE
COMPLICATIONS...A SECONDARY SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME DOMINANT AS THE FIRST FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS
COULD ROB SOME OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE COAST AND THEREFORE PREVENT
WINDS FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG WITH THE PRELIMINARY FRONT.
ALSO...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SECONDARY LOW...IT COULD BECOME
A BIT WINDY INLAND AS WELL. WILL HOLD FOR FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE
BEFORE MAKING ANY LAND WARNING/ADVISORY DECISIONS.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 315 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE
MOVING ONSHORE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW
TO THE NORTH IS MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WHILE THE
OTHER SITS ALONG THE S OREGON AND N CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. IN BETWEEN...WE ARE SEEING ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON AS THE HIGHLY STRETCHED UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. ALSO...THE LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR
NOW. THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON THE CLEARING SKIES OFFSHORE APPARENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE...THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
TO FORM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG 150+ KT JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW TOMORROW. THIS
WILL DRIVE A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM ONSHORE LATER TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A REGION OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE THAT WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AS THE LEADING WARM FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. WE EXPECT A
BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO AROUND AN INCH. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A BURST OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CORE OF
60 KT WINDS AT 925 MB ARE BEING ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z NAM...GFS...
AND ECMWF RUNS. WILL CONFINE THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE BEACHES AND
COASTAL HEADLANDS...WHERE GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT WILL LIMIT WIND
GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH FOR NOW.

IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT FREEZING RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
BASED ON THE WARMING TEMPS SEEN TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND THE FCST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP TOMORROW. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF
FREEZING RAIN AROUND HOOD RIVER AND IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SOME PATCHY SPOTS OF ICE ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE EVENING...WHICH WILL WARM
THINGS UP CONSIDERABLY AND PUT AN END TO ANY ICE CONCERNS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS
TO REMAIN BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN DECENT OROGRAPHIC FLOW. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
PERIOD OF BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVERNIGHT SAT INTO EARLY
SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. PYLE


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AS OF 04Z WITH MUCH OF THE COAST
IN MVFR CONDITIONS. ALREADY STARTING TO GET IFR AND LIFR VIS IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT THIS GENERAL MIX TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING IFR AND LIFR IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.
AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA GORGE WILL STAY VFR WITH DUE TO EAST WIND.
RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST 12-15Z FRI AND THEN INTENSIFY
AFTER 20Z. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOW-END MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND. RAIN SPREADS
INLAND DURING THE DAY FRI...WITH MAINLY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI MORNING...
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN APPROACHES
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. INCREASING RAIN AFTER 18Z
FRI RESULTING IN MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES FRI AFTERNOON WITH E TO
SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020 BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HAVE EASED A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT STILL
HOVERING AT OR CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR WIND THROUGH 18Z FRI. STRONG
GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRI...WITH COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...LOCALIZED 40-45 KT SUSTAINED WIND WITH GUSTS 50-55 KT
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ABOUT 10 NM FROM SHORELINE. LATEST NAM
RUN NOT QUITE AS STRONG...KEEPING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT OVER THE
SRN OREGON WATERS. 00Z GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
SPEEDS FRI AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS MODEL DISCREPANCY WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WARNINGS AND THE STORM WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. WIND SPEEDS
SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SEAS AT 10 FT OR JUST UNDER AS OF 04Z. SEAS FORECAST TO BE
PRIMARILY 9 FT THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EDGE ABOVE 10 FT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS STARTING AT 08Z. SEAS QUICKLY BUILD FRI WITH THE STRONG GALE
OR NEAR STORM-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET
LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH A LARGE WIND-
WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF FAIRLY FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM MIDNIGHT
     TONIGHT TO 6 AM PST FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON TO
     10 PM PST FRIDAY.

     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202314
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ARE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
TODAY. ONE IS PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...WHILE THE OTHER LOW IS ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA AND S OREGON
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG AND MOIST FRONT WILL BRING
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG WINDS LATER TOMORROW INTO EARLY SAT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LIKELY LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NE PAC EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS COMPLETELY DRY
OVER THE PAC NW. THE TREND IS THEN TOWARD DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE
MOVING ONSHORE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW
TO THE NORTH IS MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WHILE THE
OTHER SITS ALONG THE S OREGON AND N CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. IN BETWEEN...WE ARE SEEING ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON AS THE HIGHLY STRETCHED UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. ALSO...THE LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR
NOW. THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON THE CLEARING SKIES OFFSHORE APPARENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE...THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
TO FORM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG 150+ KT JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW TOMORROW. THIS
WILL DRIVE A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM ONSHORE LATER TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A REGION OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE THAT WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AS THE LEADING WARM FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. WE EXPECT A
BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO AROUND AN INCH. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A BURST OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CORE OF
60 KT WINDS AT 925 MB ARE BEING ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z NAM...GFS...AND
ECMWF RUNS. WILL CONFINE THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE
BEACHES AND COASTAL HEADLANDS...WHERE GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT WILL
LIMIT WIND GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH FOR NOW.

IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT FREEZING RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
BASED ON THE WARMING TEMPS SEEN TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND THE FCST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP TOMORROW. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF
FREEZING RAIN AROUND HOOD RIVER AND IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SOME PATCHY SPOTS OF ICE ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE EVENING...WHICH WILL WARM
THINGS UP CONSIDERABLY AND PUT AN END TO ANY ICE CONCERNS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS
TO REMAIN BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN DECENT OROGRAPHIC FLOW. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
PERIOD OF BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVERNIGHT SAT INTO EARLY
SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. PYLE


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR SALEM IN
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY IS LIKELY TO KEEP LOW MVFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MVFR AND IFR LIKELY TO RETURN TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
KTTD STILL GUSTING TO 25 KTS...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS OVER KTTD.
THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO 10 KT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT WEAK
AND DRY EASTERLIES MAY INHIBIT MVFR OR IFR.

SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 18Z FRIDAY FROM THE
SOUTH. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING...DROPPING TO MVFR
AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. MVFR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...BEFORE LIFTING AROUND 18Z AS
WIND INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS...MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS. WINDS SUBSIDE TO 20
TO 25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY.

SEAS ARE BETWEEN 8 TO 10 FT RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT
TO 10 TO 12 FT. SEAS CONTINUE TO RISE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...BUILDING TO AROUND 20 FT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SEA SEAS DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS WEAKEN...BUT SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
    COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
    FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 202314
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ARE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
TODAY. ONE IS PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...WHILE THE OTHER LOW IS ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA AND S OREGON
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG AND MOIST FRONT WILL BRING
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG WINDS LATER TOMORROW INTO EARLY SAT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LIKELY LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NE PAC EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS COMPLETELY DRY
OVER THE PAC NW. THE TREND IS THEN TOWARD DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE
MOVING ONSHORE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW
TO THE NORTH IS MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WHILE THE
OTHER SITS ALONG THE S OREGON AND N CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. IN BETWEEN...WE ARE SEEING ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON AS THE HIGHLY STRETCHED UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. ALSO...THE LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR
NOW. THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON THE CLEARING SKIES OFFSHORE APPARENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE...THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
TO FORM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG 150+ KT JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW TOMORROW. THIS
WILL DRIVE A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM ONSHORE LATER TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A REGION OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE THAT WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AS THE LEADING WARM FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. WE EXPECT A
BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO AROUND AN INCH. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A BURST OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CORE OF
60 KT WINDS AT 925 MB ARE BEING ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z NAM...GFS...AND
ECMWF RUNS. WILL CONFINE THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE
BEACHES AND COASTAL HEADLANDS...WHERE GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT WILL
LIMIT WIND GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH FOR NOW.

IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT FREEZING RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
BASED ON THE WARMING TEMPS SEEN TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND THE FCST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP TOMORROW. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF
FREEZING RAIN AROUND HOOD RIVER AND IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SOME PATCHY SPOTS OF ICE ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE EVENING...WHICH WILL WARM
THINGS UP CONSIDERABLY AND PUT AN END TO ANY ICE CONCERNS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS
TO REMAIN BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN DECENT OROGRAPHIC FLOW. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
PERIOD OF BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVERNIGHT SAT INTO EARLY
SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. PYLE


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR SALEM IN
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY IS LIKELY TO KEEP LOW MVFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MVFR AND IFR LIKELY TO RETURN TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
KTTD STILL GUSTING TO 25 KTS...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS OVER KTTD.
THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO 10 KT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT WEAK
AND DRY EASTERLIES MAY INHIBIT MVFR OR IFR.

SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 18Z FRIDAY FROM THE
SOUTH. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING...DROPPING TO MVFR
AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. MVFR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...BEFORE LIFTING AROUND 18Z AS
WIND INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS...MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS. WINDS SUBSIDE TO 20
TO 25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY.

SEAS ARE BETWEEN 8 TO 10 FT RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT
TO 10 TO 12 FT. SEAS CONTINUE TO RISE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...BUILDING TO AROUND 20 FT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SEA SEAS DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS WEAKEN...BUT SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
    COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
    FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 201736
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
932 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TWO LOW PRES SYSTEMS ARE MOVING ONTO THE PAC NW TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN LOW IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST...WHILE THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TODAY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. A BAND OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH
FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTO TONIGHT. A
WELL
ORGANIZED MOIST FRONT WILL BRING HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG WINDS LATER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND TWO ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOWS ARE AFFECTING THE PAC NW TODAY. THE NORTHERNMOST LOW IS PUSHING
ONSHORE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN LOW IS OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. A BAND OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION BEING DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN LOW IS APPARENT
ON RADAR OVER THE S WA CASCADES THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. WITH TEMPS STILL JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS ON TOP OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR MORE THAT SOME AREAS REPORTEDLY RECEIVED OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE GORGE WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING INTO TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH. THUS...THINK THE CURRENT
EXPIRATION TIME OF 21Z ON THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD.

ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM IS ON TAP FOR FRI INTO SAT. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT HIGH
WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ALL
SUGGEST A CORE OF 60+ KT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL COME THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS STRONGER AND ABOUT
6 HRS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
OVERALL TIMING...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE COASTAL BEACHES AND HEADLANDS BEGINNING MIDDAY FRI THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

THE MOST DIFFICULT FCST CHALLENGE WITH THE FRI SYSTEM IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FREEZING RAIN FOR THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE
GORGE ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
FCST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
INTO FRI AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW FREEZING
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CASCADES...AND THE SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE E FLOW INTO THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FRI.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES LATER FRI AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY SWITCH PRECIPITATION OVER TO
RAIN.

OTHER THAN THE COASTAL WINDS AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...THE MAIN
IMPACT FOR MOST OF THE REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RIVERS WILL LIKELY MAKE A QUICK UPTURN BUT QPF AMOUNTS AND
DURATION INDICATE ACTION LEVELS ARE NOT LIKELY.

WHILE THE LOWLANDS WILL REMAIN MILD DURING THE UPCOMING PERIOD OF
ACTIVE WEATHER...THE CASCADES WILL BE RECEIVING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
DOWN TO THE PASSES AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRI INTO
SAT. POST FRONTAL OROGRAPHICS LOOK PRETTY GOOD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT WE WILL NEED TO LOOK AT ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
SNOWFALL AS WE GET CLOSER. PYLE/26

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN AS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE MODELS VARY ON
HOW MUCH. THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL HAS FLATTER RIDGING
WITH MORE OF A DIRTY RIDGE TYPE PATTERN AND DOES BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT TIMES...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS MODEL SHOWS MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY SOME DRYING.
THE PARALLEL VERSION OF THE GFS MODEL IS A BIT MORE LIKE THE ECMWF.
HAVE KEPT OUR CURRENT TRENDS WHICH ARE MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND THE
PARALLEL GFS MODEL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS ARE NOT VERY
HIGH AT THIS POINT. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING CIGS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MVFR AND IFR
REMAINS IN MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS...BUT THESE SHOULD START TO
IMPROVE BY 21Z. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS DURING THESE
SHOWERS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

EASTERLY WIND STILL GUSTING OUT OF THE GORGE TO 25 KT AT KTTD...BUT
SHOULD WIND DOWN TO 10 KT BY 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR TODAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE
WHEN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS TODAY
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP FRI MORNING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM. GALES LOOKING VERY POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...AS A COASTAL JET DEVELOPS INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH OR
BUILDING NORTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SEAS TODAY WILL STAY AROUND 10 FT...AND WILL START TO BUILD AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. SEAS WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS FRIDAY MORNING...BUILDING TO AROUND 20 FT
MIDDAY FRIDAY. ONCE THE WINDS START TO WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS
SHOULD DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY...BACK TO 10 TO 12 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL

     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL

     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6
     PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 60 NM.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL

     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL

     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
     PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 201736
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
932 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TWO LOW PRES SYSTEMS ARE MOVING ONTO THE PAC NW TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN LOW IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST...WHILE THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TODAY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. A BAND OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH
FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTO TONIGHT. A
WELL
ORGANIZED MOIST FRONT WILL BRING HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG WINDS LATER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND TWO ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOWS ARE AFFECTING THE PAC NW TODAY. THE NORTHERNMOST LOW IS PUSHING
ONSHORE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN LOW IS OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. A BAND OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION BEING DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN LOW IS APPARENT
ON RADAR OVER THE S WA CASCADES THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. WITH TEMPS STILL JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS ON TOP OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR MORE THAT SOME AREAS REPORTEDLY RECEIVED OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE GORGE WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING INTO TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH. THUS...THINK THE CURRENT
EXPIRATION TIME OF 21Z ON THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD.

ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM IS ON TAP FOR FRI INTO SAT. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT HIGH
WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ALL
SUGGEST A CORE OF 60+ KT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL COME THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS STRONGER AND ABOUT
6 HRS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
OVERALL TIMING...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE COASTAL BEACHES AND HEADLANDS BEGINNING MIDDAY FRI THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

THE MOST DIFFICULT FCST CHALLENGE WITH THE FRI SYSTEM IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FREEZING RAIN FOR THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE
GORGE ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
FCST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
INTO FRI AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW FREEZING
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CASCADES...AND THE SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE E FLOW INTO THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FRI.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES LATER FRI AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY SWITCH PRECIPITATION OVER TO
RAIN.

OTHER THAN THE COASTAL WINDS AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...THE MAIN
IMPACT FOR MOST OF THE REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RIVERS WILL LIKELY MAKE A QUICK UPTURN BUT QPF AMOUNTS AND
DURATION INDICATE ACTION LEVELS ARE NOT LIKELY.

WHILE THE LOWLANDS WILL REMAIN MILD DURING THE UPCOMING PERIOD OF
ACTIVE WEATHER...THE CASCADES WILL BE RECEIVING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
DOWN TO THE PASSES AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRI INTO
SAT. POST FRONTAL OROGRAPHICS LOOK PRETTY GOOD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT WE WILL NEED TO LOOK AT ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
SNOWFALL AS WE GET CLOSER. PYLE/26

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN AS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE MODELS VARY ON
HOW MUCH. THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL HAS FLATTER RIDGING
WITH MORE OF A DIRTY RIDGE TYPE PATTERN AND DOES BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT TIMES...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS MODEL SHOWS MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY SOME DRYING.
THE PARALLEL VERSION OF THE GFS MODEL IS A BIT MORE LIKE THE ECMWF.
HAVE KEPT OUR CURRENT TRENDS WHICH ARE MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND THE
PARALLEL GFS MODEL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS ARE NOT VERY
HIGH AT THIS POINT. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING CIGS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MVFR AND IFR
REMAINS IN MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS...BUT THESE SHOULD START TO
IMPROVE BY 21Z. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS DURING THESE
SHOWERS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

EASTERLY WIND STILL GUSTING OUT OF THE GORGE TO 25 KT AT KTTD...BUT
SHOULD WIND DOWN TO 10 KT BY 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR TODAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE
WHEN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS TODAY
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP FRI MORNING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM. GALES LOOKING VERY POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...AS A COASTAL JET DEVELOPS INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH OR
BUILDING NORTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SEAS TODAY WILL STAY AROUND 10 FT...AND WILL START TO BUILD AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. SEAS WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS FRIDAY MORNING...BUILDING TO AROUND 20 FT
MIDDAY FRIDAY. ONCE THE WINDS START TO WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS
SHOULD DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY...BACK TO 10 TO 12 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL

     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL

     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6
     PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 60 NM.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL

     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL

     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
     PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





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