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000
FXUS66 KPQR 050935
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 AM PDT SAT SEP  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES
TODAY WITH SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES GRADUALLY ENDING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN INLAND AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
AREAS NORTH OF THE OREGON/WASHINGTON BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA
AND EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
NW OREGON GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES LATER THIS MORNING
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR LOW
LANDS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS PEAKING
IN THE MID 60S FOR THE COAST. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD REDUCE RADIATION COOLING AND THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE COASTAL
VALLEYS AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT BE
AS COOL AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE ALASKAN COAST TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH IS PAIRED WITH A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW
COAST SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY DOWN TO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DROP MOST OF ITS
RAIN NEAR THE COAST...WITH HARDLY ANY RAIN EXPECTED EAST OF THE COAST
RANGE.

 PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE OVER AN INCH WITH THIS FRONT AND A 90KT
500MB JET SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THAT THE FRONT WILL RELEASE MOST
OF ITS MOISTURE OFFSHORE...AND WEAKEN QUITE A BIT BEFORE IT REACHES
THE COAST...AND ONLY EXPECT LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.10 INCH FOR THE
COAST AND COAST RANGE. THE FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ONLY EXPECT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
FOR THE INTERIOR LOW LANDS NORTH OF SALEM.

CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS FROM REACHING MUCH ABOVE 70 DEGREES
NORTH OF SALEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF SALEM
COULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 75.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN A DRY LABOR DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE INTERIOR LOW LANDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NORTH OF
SALEM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT APPROACHES NW WASHINGTON. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THINK LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST
NORTH OF THE OR/WA BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF OREGON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S...AND COASTAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OREGON HAS LEFT MOST
LOWLAND LOCATIONS CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS HUGGING
THE CASCADES. PATCHY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY MAKE IFR
CONDITIONS HARDER TO COME BY THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY. IN
ADDITION...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS OVER THE CASCADES THAT
ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 4KFT AND 8KFT ARE TRYING TO BACK BUILD INTO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHICH MAY KEEP MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS
VFR THIS MORNING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
IS LOW THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...BUT SUSPECT MORE LOCATIONS MAY
REMAIN VFR THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. KEUG AND KHIO WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT AT KAST WHERE AN
INCOMING FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO AT
LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AS CIGS BETWEEN
4KFT AND 8KFT BUILD WESTWARD OFF THE CASCADES AND OVER THE TERMINAL
EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE CONDITIONS
COULD DETERIORATE INTO IFR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY BRING A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 20 KT. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE THEN
LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BRINGING A RETURN TO
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY FLIRT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THE STRONGER AND MORE SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT FRI SEP  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS AN COOL UPPER TROUGH LINGERED OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WAS OVER THE COAST RANGE BUT SOME MADE IT INTO THE VALLEY.
RADAR INDICATED HAIL WITH A STORM OVER YAMHILL COUNTY BUT NO
VERIFICATION SO FAR. IT DID EVENTUALLY REACH THE MCMINNVILLE AREA AND
DUMPED ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT KMMV.  NO THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.  IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOLLOWED BY A DRY MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING AROUND. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. BOWEN/64

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE SITTING WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS EVENING WITH BUOY 50 SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING
A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS. BOWEN/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT FRI SEP  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS AN COOL UPPER TROUGH LINGERED OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WAS OVER THE COAST RANGE BUT SOME MADE IT INTO THE VALLEY.
RADAR INDICATED HAIL WITH A STORM OVER YAMHILL COUNTY BUT NO
VERIFICATION SO FAR. IT DID EVENTUALLY REACH THE MCMINNVILLE AREA AND
DUMPED ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT KMMV.  NO THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.  IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOLLOWED BY A DRY MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING AROUND. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. BOWEN/64

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE SITTING WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS EVENING WITH BUOY 50 SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING
A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS. BOWEN/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT FRI SEP  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS AN COOL UPPER TROUGH LINGERED OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WAS OVER THE COAST RANGE BUT SOME MADE IT INTO THE VALLEY.
RADAR INDICATED HAIL WITH A STORM OVER YAMHILL COUNTY BUT NO
VERIFICATION SO FAR. IT DID EVENTUALLY REACH THE MCMINNVILLE AREA AND
DUMPED ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT KMMV.  NO THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.  IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOLLOWED BY A DRY MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING AROUND. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. BOWEN/64

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE SITTING WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS EVENING WITH BUOY 50 SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING
A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS. BOWEN/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 042139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICTAE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER
SCATTERED CU. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SKIES
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO
STABILIZE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP
TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INCREASING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS TO THE WATERS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING A
FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OREGON NEXT
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND WILL BECOME WIND DRIVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARDS 7 FT LATE NEXT WEEK.
/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 042139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICTAE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER
SCATTERED CU. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SKIES
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO
STABILIZE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP
TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INCREASING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS TO THE WATERS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING A
FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OREGON NEXT
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND WILL BECOME WIND DRIVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARDS 7 FT LATE NEXT WEEK.
/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 042139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICTAE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER
SCATTERED CU. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SKIES
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO
STABILIZE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP
TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INCREASING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS TO THE WATERS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING A
FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OREGON NEXT
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND WILL BECOME WIND DRIVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARDS 7 FT LATE NEXT WEEK.
/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 042139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICTAE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER
SCATTERED CU. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SKIES
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO
STABILIZE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP
TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INCREASING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS TO THE WATERS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING A
FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OREGON NEXT
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND WILL BECOME WIND DRIVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARDS 7 FT LATE NEXT WEEK.
/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 041615
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS
MORNING JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OVER WA AND OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING WAS MAINLY RELEGATED TO AREAS OFF THE COAST. AS DAYIME
WARMING KICKS IN THOUGH...EXPECT SHOWERS TO POP UP INLAND AS WELL.
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVERHEAD FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON MOST ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH WILL
RETAIN BEST POPS OVER MOUNTAINS. COOL POOL WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER
DAY OF TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE LOW LINGERS SOME
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND A GOOD PART OF SATURDAY NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS UNDER
ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY BEFORE WARMING UP CLOSE TO 70 OR THE
LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING SUNSHINE.

THE IMPROVING WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CATCHING MOST OF THE COAST BUT MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND AREAS FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTHWARD. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING  NEAR THE AREA...
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS OVER
THE NORTH COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT
MOST RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE BY 18Z WITH VFR AND SCATTERED CU
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-03Z. SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STATUS TO
REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 18Z. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 09Z SATURDAY. /64/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS TODAY. INCREASING LOW
PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALSO ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT. A WEAK
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BRING FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO A
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO THE WATERS. THIS WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME A
BIT MORE WIND DOMINATED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 041615
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS
MORNING JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OVER WA AND OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING WAS MAINLY RELEGATED TO AREAS OFF THE COAST. AS DAYIME
WARMING KICKS IN THOUGH...EXPECT SHOWERS TO POP UP INLAND AS WELL.
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVERHEAD FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON MOST ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH WILL
RETAIN BEST POPS OVER MOUNTAINS. COOL POOL WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER
DAY OF TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE LOW LINGERS SOME
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND A GOOD PART OF SATURDAY NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS UNDER
ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY BEFORE WARMING UP CLOSE TO 70 OR THE
LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING SUNSHINE.

THE IMPROVING WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CATCHING MOST OF THE COAST BUT MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND AREAS FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTHWARD. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING  NEAR THE AREA...
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS OVER
THE NORTH COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT
MOST RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE BY 18Z WITH VFR AND SCATTERED CU
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-03Z. SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STATUS TO
REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 18Z. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 09Z SATURDAY. /64/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS TODAY. INCREASING LOW
PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALSO ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT. A WEAK
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BRING FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO A
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO THE WATERS. THIS WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME A
BIT MORE WIND DOMINATED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 040956
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
255 AM PDT FRI SEP  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. SOME
ENERGY IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW...AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME
DECENT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH
THESE THIS MORNING. INLAND IS LOOKING DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT IS LEADING TO SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCAL FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO COOLING OVERNIGHT FROM DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS THIS MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.
SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY IS TRYING TO SWING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER
OR TWO TRY TO FORM DOWN SOUTH THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON...AND BE PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS INCREASING WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS IN CONCERT
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT FROM THE LOW. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SOME OF THESE SHOULD DRIFT OUT OVER
THE VALLEYS AS WELL.

THE LOW LINGERS SOME TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND A GOOD PART
OF SATURDAY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS UNDER ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY BEFORE WARMING UP
CLOSE TO 70 OR THE LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING
SUNSHINE.

THE IMPROVING WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CATCHING MOST OF THE COAST BUT MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND AREAS FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTHWARD. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING  NEAR THE AREA...
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE DELAYING
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION...BUT DETERIORATIONS STILL SEEM
PROBABLE...JUST MORE TOWARDS 12Z TO 15Z FRIDAY. EXPECT MOST
RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE BY 18Z FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP BETWEEN 18Z
FRIDAY AND 03Z SATURDAY BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ONCE AGAIN. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DETERIORATIONS AT MANY TAF SITES AS WE APPROACH
12Z SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL GIVE
WAY TO CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 09Z SATURDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS TODAY. INCREASING LOW
PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALSO ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT. A WEAK
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO A SUMMER-LIKE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE WIND
DOMINATED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 040956
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
255 AM PDT FRI SEP  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. SOME
ENERGY IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW...AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME
DECENT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH
THESE THIS MORNING. INLAND IS LOOKING DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT IS LEADING TO SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCAL FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO COOLING OVERNIGHT FROM DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS THIS MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.
SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY IS TRYING TO SWING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER
OR TWO TRY TO FORM DOWN SOUTH THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON...AND BE PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS INCREASING WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS IN CONCERT
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT FROM THE LOW. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SOME OF THESE SHOULD DRIFT OUT OVER
THE VALLEYS AS WELL.

THE LOW LINGERS SOME TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND A GOOD PART
OF SATURDAY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS UNDER ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY BEFORE WARMING UP
CLOSE TO 70 OR THE LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING
SUNSHINE.

THE IMPROVING WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CATCHING MOST OF THE COAST BUT MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND AREAS FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTHWARD. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING  NEAR THE AREA...
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE DELAYING
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION...BUT DETERIORATIONS STILL SEEM
PROBABLE...JUST MORE TOWARDS 12Z TO 15Z FRIDAY. EXPECT MOST
RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE BY 18Z FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP BETWEEN 18Z
FRIDAY AND 03Z SATURDAY BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ONCE AGAIN. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DETERIORATIONS AT MANY TAF SITES AS WE APPROACH
12Z SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL GIVE
WAY TO CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 09Z SATURDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS TODAY. INCREASING LOW
PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALSO ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT. A WEAK
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO A SUMMER-LIKE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE WIND
DOMINATED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 040400
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 PM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...BRINGING
MORE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PAC NW.

&&

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INLAND BUT ARE BECOMING
LESS INTENSE AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THERE IS A DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS...SEEN AS COLD TOP CELLS ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP.
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WITH
THE CENTER OF COLD POOL ALOFT NEAR THE COAST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM. BUT
NEW MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRIER VERTICAL PROFILE FRI AFTERNOON SO
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMITED BY MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND THEN OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE SO FAR...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...A BATCH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WERE A CONSIDERABLE
NUMBER OF STRIKES RECORDED IN NW WASHINGTON EARLIER WHERE THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT RESIDES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...POTENTIALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NW OREGON ON FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE SUN AND
HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE CASCADES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING DOWN IN
EUGENE WITH IFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS PARTICULARLY LOW IN
THAT SCENARIO. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BOWEN/64

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SEAS ARE AROUND
6 FT AND DROPPING SLOWLY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
LOOK AS MARGINAL AS POSSIBLE IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON COULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON
SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
REBUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MILD WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE PERIOD OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 040400
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 PM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...BRINGING
MORE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PAC NW.

&&

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INLAND BUT ARE BECOMING
LESS INTENSE AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THERE IS A DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS...SEEN AS COLD TOP CELLS ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP.
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WITH
THE CENTER OF COLD POOL ALOFT NEAR THE COAST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM. BUT
NEW MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRIER VERTICAL PROFILE FRI AFTERNOON SO
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMITED BY MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND THEN OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE SO FAR...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...A BATCH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WERE A CONSIDERABLE
NUMBER OF STRIKES RECORDED IN NW WASHINGTON EARLIER WHERE THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT RESIDES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...POTENTIALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NW OREGON ON FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE SUN AND
HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE CASCADES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING DOWN IN
EUGENE WITH IFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS PARTICULARLY LOW IN
THAT SCENARIO. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BOWEN/64

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SEAS ARE AROUND
6 FT AND DROPPING SLOWLY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
LOOK AS MARGINAL AS POSSIBLE IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON COULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON
SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
REBUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MILD WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE PERIOD OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 032127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
227 PM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLOW SAG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...BRINGING
MORE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PAC NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND THEN OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE SO FAR...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...A BATCH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WERE A CONSIDERABLE
NUMBER OF STRIKES RECORDED IN NW WASHINGTON EARLIER WHERE THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT RESIDES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...POTENTIALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NW OREGON ON FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE SUN AND
HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK
BUILDS OFF THE CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY. /64

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN OREGON COULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MILD WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE PERIOD OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 032127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
227 PM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLOW SAG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...BRINGING
MORE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PAC NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND THEN OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE SO FAR...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...A BATCH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WERE A CONSIDERABLE
NUMBER OF STRIKES RECORDED IN NW WASHINGTON EARLIER WHERE THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT RESIDES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...POTENTIALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NW OREGON ON FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE SUN AND
HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK
BUILDS OFF THE CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY. /64

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN OREGON COULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MILD WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE PERIOD OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 032127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
227 PM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLOW SAG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...BRINGING
MORE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PAC NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND THEN OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE SO FAR...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...A BATCH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WERE A CONSIDERABLE
NUMBER OF STRIKES RECORDED IN NW WASHINGTON EARLIER WHERE THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT RESIDES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...POTENTIALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NW OREGON ON FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE SUN AND
HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK
BUILDS OFF THE CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY. /64

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN OREGON COULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MILD WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE PERIOD OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS SPINNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS LOCATED. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OVER OUR FCST
AREA TODAY...WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED THREAT BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. PYLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE
CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 031622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS SPINNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS LOCATED. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OVER OUR FCST
AREA TODAY...WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED THREAT BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. PYLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE
CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS SPINNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS LOCATED. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OVER OUR FCST
AREA TODAY...WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED THREAT BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. PYLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE
CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS SPINNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS LOCATED. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OVER OUR FCST
AREA TODAY...WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED THREAT BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. PYLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE
CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 030948
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY...
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CASCADES AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THAT MIGHT DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A
WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE DOMINATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BY AN
UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C. THIS MORNING. THE LOW
WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO DIRECT A FEW SHOWERS
ONSHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA... FROM
ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE WEST TODAY. WITH SOME OF THE COOLER AIR ALOFT FROM
THE LOW EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA...WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A COOL SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WILL BE AT KONP BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z
THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BACK BUILD FROM THE
CASCADES AND IMPACT WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT THINK ANY DETERIORATIONS WILL LAST MORE THAN AN
COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING AN INTERIOR TAF SITE BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 03Z FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A COOL UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z THURSDAY
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT ODDS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH
TO BRING FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND DOMINATED...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 030948
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY...
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CASCADES AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THAT MIGHT DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A
WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE DOMINATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BY AN
UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C. THIS MORNING. THE LOW
WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO DIRECT A FEW SHOWERS
ONSHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA... FROM
ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE WEST TODAY. WITH SOME OF THE COOLER AIR ALOFT FROM
THE LOW EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA...WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A COOL SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WILL BE AT KONP BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z
THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BACK BUILD FROM THE
CASCADES AND IMPACT WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT THINK ANY DETERIORATIONS WILL LAST MORE THAN AN
COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING AN INTERIOR TAF SITE BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 03Z FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A COOL UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z THURSDAY
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT ODDS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH
TO BRING FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND DOMINATED...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 030409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
905 PM PDT WED SEP  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW AND ONSHORE. TEMPS COOL ALOFT A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER BATCH OF ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND SOME SUNSHINE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS AT TIMES ON FRIDAY...THIS WILL
GIVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THIS WEEKEND FOR IMPROVING WEATHER...THOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...NOT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
WERE SOME HEAVY SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND
SKAMANIA COUNTY THAT TRIGGERED SOME THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR SHOWS THERE
ARE STILL SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATER. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS NEXT
AREA OFF COLDER AIR THAT MODELS BRING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING AS WELL AS A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDER OVER
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.FOR THU...INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY BUT STILL WARRANTS MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND FAR
NORTHWEST OREGON ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE ENERGY FROM ONE OF THE
SHORTWAVES IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDING
JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE SHOWER NEAR
ROOSTER ROCK JUST PRODUCED THE FIRST LIGHTNING STRIKE OF THE DAY
AROUND 125 PM. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM ABOUT TILLAMOOK...MCMINNVILLE...AND EASTERN
MULTNOMAH COUNTY NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. LGX RADAR SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE
THE NORTHERN COAST WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE. RAISED POPS FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TERM FOR ALL EXCEPT THE CENTRAL COAST...WHICH SHOULD NOT
SEE MUCH SHOWER ACTION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TOMORROW...THE AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL...AND MODEL LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT WE
COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER AS
SIMILAR AREA AS TODAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TOMORROW
THOUGH...LIKELY FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS AND LEAVING THE CENTRAL
COAST...SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE CASCADES DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE COAST ALONG
THE WEST OR BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND MOVING
ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE A MINIMUM OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS DRAGS THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT... WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AGAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE LEFT SOME LINGERING POPS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS ENERGY FROM THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THROUGH
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY TO MID OCTOBER THAN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. INLAND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS WELL BELOW 60 DEGREES. WILL LIKELY SEE A
NUMBER OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SO GO
AHEAD AND FIND A SWEATER IF YOU DON`T ALREADY HAVE ONE OUT.
BOWEN/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE EXHIBITING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR
MONDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER
DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT
DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTH OF KSLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS USUAL...BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT WITH MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE NORTH
COAST AND NORTH VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AS IT BACKS WEST FROM THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. ANY MVFR CIGS WOULD LIKELY NOT AFFECT THE
TERMINAL UNTIL AROUND 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS
AND VSBY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. BOWEN/64

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING NORTHWEST BUT NOT AT
SIGNIFICANT SPEEDS. SEAS ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN SLOWLY WITH BUOY
50 UNDER 9 FT RIGHT NOW AND EVEN BUOY 89 HAS FALLEN JUST BELOW 10
FT. BOWEN

RELEVANT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND...WITH THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING SATURDAY. SEAS FALL TO
AROUND 5 TO 7 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS STARTING SATURDAY. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 030409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
905 PM PDT WED SEP  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW AND ONSHORE. TEMPS COOL ALOFT A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER BATCH OF ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND SOME SUNSHINE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS AT TIMES ON FRIDAY...THIS WILL
GIVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THIS WEEKEND FOR IMPROVING WEATHER...THOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...NOT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
WERE SOME HEAVY SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND
SKAMANIA COUNTY THAT TRIGGERED SOME THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR SHOWS THERE
ARE STILL SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATER. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS NEXT
AREA OFF COLDER AIR THAT MODELS BRING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING AS WELL AS A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDER OVER
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.FOR THU...INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY BUT STILL WARRANTS MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND FAR
NORTHWEST OREGON ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE ENERGY FROM ONE OF THE
SHORTWAVES IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDING
JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE SHOWER NEAR
ROOSTER ROCK JUST PRODUCED THE FIRST LIGHTNING STRIKE OF THE DAY
AROUND 125 PM. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM ABOUT TILLAMOOK...MCMINNVILLE...AND EASTERN
MULTNOMAH COUNTY NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. LGX RADAR SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE
THE NORTHERN COAST WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE. RAISED POPS FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TERM FOR ALL EXCEPT THE CENTRAL COAST...WHICH SHOULD NOT
SEE MUCH SHOWER ACTION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TOMORROW...THE AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL...AND MODEL LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT WE
COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER AS
SIMILAR AREA AS TODAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TOMORROW
THOUGH...LIKELY FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS AND LEAVING THE CENTRAL
COAST...SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE CASCADES DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE COAST ALONG
THE WEST OR BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND MOVING
ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE A MINIMUM OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS DRAGS THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT... WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AGAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE LEFT SOME LINGERING POPS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS ENERGY FROM THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THROUGH
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY TO MID OCTOBER THAN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. INLAND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS WELL BELOW 60 DEGREES. WILL LIKELY SEE A
NUMBER OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SO GO
AHEAD AND FIND A SWEATER IF YOU DON`T ALREADY HAVE ONE OUT.
BOWEN/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE EXHIBITING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR
MONDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER
DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT
DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTH OF KSLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS USUAL...BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT WITH MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE NORTH
COAST AND NORTH VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AS IT BACKS WEST FROM THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. ANY MVFR CIGS WOULD LIKELY NOT AFFECT THE
TERMINAL UNTIL AROUND 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS
AND VSBY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. BOWEN/64

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING NORTHWEST BUT NOT AT
SIGNIFICANT SPEEDS. SEAS ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN SLOWLY WITH BUOY
50 UNDER 9 FT RIGHT NOW AND EVEN BUOY 89 HAS FALLEN JUST BELOW 10
FT. BOWEN

RELEVANT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND...WITH THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING SATURDAY. SEAS FALL TO
AROUND 5 TO 7 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS STARTING SATURDAY. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 022139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
238 PM PDT WED SEP  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTH AND THE COOLING ALOFT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS A COUPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ONSHORE. TEMPS COOL ALOFT A BIT MORE
ON THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER BATCH OF ENERGY
DROPS SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND SOME
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS AT TIMES ON FRIDAY...
THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THIS WEEKEND FOR IMPROVING WEATHER...THOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE ENERGY FROM ONE OF THE
SHORTWAVES IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDING
JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE SHOWER NEAR
ROOSTER ROCK JUST PRODUCED THE FIRST LIGHTNING STRIKE OF THE DAY
AROUND 125 PM. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM ABOUT TILLAMOOK...MCMINNVILLE...AND EASTERN
MULTNOMAH COUNTY NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. LGX RADAR SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE
THE NORTHERN COAST WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE. RAISED POPS FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TERM FOR ALL EXCEPT THE CENTRAL COAST...WHICH SHOULD NOT
SEE MUCH SHOWER ACTION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TOMORROW...THE AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL...AND MODEL LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT WE
COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER AS
SIMILAR AREA AS TODAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TOMORROW
THOUGH...LIKELY FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS AND LEAVING THE CENTRAL
COAST...SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE CASCADES DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE COAST ALONG
THE WEST OR BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND MOVING
ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE A MINIMUM OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS DRAGS THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT... WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AGAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE LEFT SOME LINGERING POPS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS ENERGY FROM THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THROUGH
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY TO MID OCTOBER THAN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. INLAND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS WELL BELOW 60 DEGREES. WILL LIKELY SEE A
NUMBER OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SO GO
AHEAD AND FIND A SWEATER IF YOU DON`T ALREADY HAVE ONE OUT.
BOWEN/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE EXHIBITING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR
MONDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER
DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT
DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH COAST
AND VALLEY THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHIFTS NORTH OF KSLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS USUAL...BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IS WILL DEVELOP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. /64

&&

.MARINE...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. WIND CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 15 KT...WITH
SEAS AROUND 9 FT. SEAS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES ONSHORE...SO DECIDED TO CANCEL
THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR SEAS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING
SATURDAY. SEAS FALL TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE PERIODS
OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 022139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
238 PM PDT WED SEP  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTH AND THE COOLING ALOFT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS A COUPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ONSHORE. TEMPS COOL ALOFT A BIT MORE
ON THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER BATCH OF ENERGY
DROPS SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND SOME
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS AT TIMES ON FRIDAY...
THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THIS WEEKEND FOR IMPROVING WEATHER...THOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE ENERGY FROM ONE OF THE
SHORTWAVES IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDING
JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE SHOWER NEAR
ROOSTER ROCK JUST PRODUCED THE FIRST LIGHTNING STRIKE OF THE DAY
AROUND 125 PM. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM ABOUT TILLAMOOK...MCMINNVILLE...AND EASTERN
MULTNOMAH COUNTY NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. LGX RADAR SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE
THE NORTHERN COAST WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE. RAISED POPS FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TERM FOR ALL EXCEPT THE CENTRAL COAST...WHICH SHOULD NOT
SEE MUCH SHOWER ACTION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TOMORROW...THE AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL...AND MODEL LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT WE
COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER AS
SIMILAR AREA AS TODAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TOMORROW
THOUGH...LIKELY FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS AND LEAVING THE CENTRAL
COAST...SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE CASCADES DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE COAST ALONG
THE WEST OR BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND MOVING
ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE A MINIMUM OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS DRAGS THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT... WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AGAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE LEFT SOME LINGERING POPS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS ENERGY FROM THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THROUGH
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY TO MID OCTOBER THAN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. INLAND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS WELL BELOW 60 DEGREES. WILL LIKELY SEE A
NUMBER OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SO GO
AHEAD AND FIND A SWEATER IF YOU DON`T ALREADY HAVE ONE OUT.
BOWEN/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE EXHIBITING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR
MONDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER
DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT
DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH COAST
AND VALLEY THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHIFTS NORTH OF KSLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS USUAL...BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IS WILL DEVELOP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. /64

&&

.MARINE...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. WIND CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 15 KT...WITH
SEAS AROUND 9 FT. SEAS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES ONSHORE...SO DECIDED TO CANCEL
THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR SEAS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING
SATURDAY. SEAS FALL TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE PERIODS
OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 022139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
238 PM PDT WED SEP  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTH AND THE COOLING ALOFT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS A COUPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ONSHORE. TEMPS COOL ALOFT A BIT MORE
ON THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER BATCH OF ENERGY
DROPS SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND SOME
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS AT TIMES ON FRIDAY...
THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THIS WEEKEND FOR IMPROVING WEATHER...THOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE ENERGY FROM ONE OF THE
SHORTWAVES IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDING
JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE SHOWER NEAR
ROOSTER ROCK JUST PRODUCED THE FIRST LIGHTNING STRIKE OF THE DAY
AROUND 125 PM. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM ABOUT TILLAMOOK...MCMINNVILLE...AND EASTERN
MULTNOMAH COUNTY NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. LGX RADAR SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE
THE NORTHERN COAST WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE. RAISED POPS FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TERM FOR ALL EXCEPT THE CENTRAL COAST...WHICH SHOULD NOT
SEE MUCH SHOWER ACTION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TOMORROW...THE AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL...AND MODEL LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT WE
COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER AS
SIMILAR AREA AS TODAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TOMORROW
THOUGH...LIKELY FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS AND LEAVING THE CENTRAL
COAST...SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE CASCADES DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE COAST ALONG
THE WEST OR BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND MOVING
ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE A MINIMUM OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS DRAGS THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT... WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AGAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE LEFT SOME LINGERING POPS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS ENERGY FROM THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THROUGH
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY TO MID OCTOBER THAN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. INLAND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS WELL BELOW 60 DEGREES. WILL LIKELY SEE A
NUMBER OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SO GO
AHEAD AND FIND A SWEATER IF YOU DON`T ALREADY HAVE ONE OUT.
BOWEN/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE EXHIBITING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR
MONDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER
DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT
DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH COAST
AND VALLEY THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHIFTS NORTH OF KSLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS USUAL...BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IS WILL DEVELOP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. /64

&&

.MARINE...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. WIND CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 15 KT...WITH
SEAS AROUND 9 FT. SEAS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES ONSHORE...SO DECIDED TO CANCEL
THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR SEAS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING
SATURDAY. SEAS FALL TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE PERIODS
OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 022139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
238 PM PDT WED SEP  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTH AND THE COOLING ALOFT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS A COUPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ONSHORE. TEMPS COOL ALOFT A BIT MORE
ON THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER BATCH OF ENERGY
DROPS SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND SOME
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS AT TIMES ON FRIDAY...
THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THIS WEEKEND FOR IMPROVING WEATHER...THOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE ENERGY FROM ONE OF THE
SHORTWAVES IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDING
JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE SHOWER NEAR
ROOSTER ROCK JUST PRODUCED THE FIRST LIGHTNING STRIKE OF THE DAY
AROUND 125 PM. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM ABOUT TILLAMOOK...MCMINNVILLE...AND EASTERN
MULTNOMAH COUNTY NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. LGX RADAR SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE
THE NORTHERN COAST WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE. RAISED POPS FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TERM FOR ALL EXCEPT THE CENTRAL COAST...WHICH SHOULD NOT
SEE MUCH SHOWER ACTION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TOMORROW...THE AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL...AND MODEL LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT WE
COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER AS
SIMILAR AREA AS TODAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TOMORROW
THOUGH...LIKELY FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS AND LEAVING THE CENTRAL
COAST...SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE CASCADES DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE COAST ALONG
THE WEST OR BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND MOVING
ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE A MINIMUM OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS DRAGS THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT... WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AGAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE LEFT SOME LINGERING POPS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS ENERGY FROM THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THROUGH
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY TO MID OCTOBER THAN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. INLAND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS WELL BELOW 60 DEGREES. WILL LIKELY SEE A
NUMBER OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SO GO
AHEAD AND FIND A SWEATER IF YOU DON`T ALREADY HAVE ONE OUT.
BOWEN/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE EXHIBITING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR
MONDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER
DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT
DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH COAST
AND VALLEY THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHIFTS NORTH OF KSLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS USUAL...BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IS WILL DEVELOP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. /64

&&

.MARINE...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. WIND CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 15 KT...WITH
SEAS AROUND 9 FT. SEAS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES ONSHORE...SO DECIDED TO CANCEL
THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR SEAS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING
SATURDAY. SEAS FALL TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE PERIODS
OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




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