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000
FXUS66 KPQR 212132
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
231 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW SITTING OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. STILL SOMEUNCERTAINTY IN DRIZZLE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH NAM SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE SO
DECIDED TO KEEP DRIZZLETO MARINE...COASTAL...AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND CASCADES WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST ACROSS THE MODELS.

LATER FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE CENTER OF THE LOW JUST A BIT
SOUTH...OVER THE OREGON IDAHO BOREDER BY 00Z SATURDAY. BEST
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON SO THUNDER CHANCES IN OUR AREA SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MT
ADAMS AREA. KEPT FORECAST CONSISTENT FROM THIS MORNING`S UPDATE WITH
A SLIGHT CHACE OF THUNDER JUST OVER EASTERN SKAMANIA COUNTY FOR THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OREGON CASCADSE. PRECIP
CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND MINIMAL AFTERNOON SKY
COVER...TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE AREA. BOWEN

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AND
BECOME MORE ZONAL WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE COAST
MAY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AFTER 08Z...BUT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE
MUCH DRIZZLE INLAND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON CEILING HEIGHT IS
LOW...BUT CURRENTLY THINK MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THE COAST AND
ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING KTTD. VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 15Z...AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE AS REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FRIDAY AND NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE NE PACIFIC
INTO NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...AND S OF CASCADE HEAD.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 212132
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
231 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW SITTING OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. STILL SOMEUNCERTAINTY IN DRIZZLE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH NAM SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE SO
DECIDED TO KEEP DRIZZLETO MARINE...COASTAL...AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND CASCADES WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST ACROSS THE MODELS.

LATER FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE CENTER OF THE LOW JUST A BIT
SOUTH...OVER THE OREGON IDAHO BOREDER BY 00Z SATURDAY. BEST
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON SO THUNDER CHANCES IN OUR AREA SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MT
ADAMS AREA. KEPT FORECAST CONSISTENT FROM THIS MORNING`S UPDATE WITH
A SLIGHT CHACE OF THUNDER JUST OVER EASTERN SKAMANIA COUNTY FOR THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OREGON CASCADSE. PRECIP
CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND MINIMAL AFTERNOON SKY
COVER...TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE AREA. BOWEN

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AND
BECOME MORE ZONAL WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE COAST
MAY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AFTER 08Z...BUT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE
MUCH DRIZZLE INLAND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON CEILING HEIGHT IS
LOW...BUT CURRENTLY THINK MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THE COAST AND
ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING KTTD. VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 15Z...AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE AS REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FRIDAY AND NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE NE PACIFIC
INTO NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...AND S OF CASCADE HEAD.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211653
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
952 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MAINLY
RELEGATED TO THE COAST THIS MORNING BUT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED OVER INLAND AREAS.  NOT MUCH UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING BUT TO
BRING SKY GRIDS IN LINE WITH OBS. MORNING LOWS TODAY WERE THE LOWEST
THEY`VE BEEN IN WEEKS AND TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY A COOL DAY ACROSS
THE VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COAST THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY MOVE
DOWN THE BC COAST AND INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN DRIZZLE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING SO WILL
STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

LATER FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW AND
HAVE REASONABLE AGREEMENT...PLACING THE LOW CENTER NEAR THE
WASHINGTON/OREGON/IDAHO BORDER 00Z SATURDAY. BEST THUNDER CHANCES
LOOK LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN NEAR THE MT ADAMS AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING LIKELIHOOD HEADING SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FROM AREAS AWAY
FROM MT ADAMS...EASTERN SKAMANIA COUNTY...BUT COULD CERTAINLY STILL
SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF THE OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON CASCADES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY
TO MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE MARINE
INFLUENCED LOWER LEVELS. JBONK/BOWEN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS
WILL ONLY BRING AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM
NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...EXCEPT SATELLITE AND
NEARBY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS PATCHY MVFR CIGS NORTH
OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA TODAY ARE DUE TO
THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DECAYING SURFACE
FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 15Z...AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE AS REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FRIDAY
AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
NE PACIFIC INTO NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...AND S
OF CASCADE HEAD. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211653
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
952 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MAINLY
RELEGATED TO THE COAST THIS MORNING BUT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED OVER INLAND AREAS.  NOT MUCH UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING BUT TO
BRING SKY GRIDS IN LINE WITH OBS. MORNING LOWS TODAY WERE THE LOWEST
THEY`VE BEEN IN WEEKS AND TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY A COOL DAY ACROSS
THE VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COAST THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY MOVE
DOWN THE BC COAST AND INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN DRIZZLE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING SO WILL
STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

LATER FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW AND
HAVE REASONABLE AGREEMENT...PLACING THE LOW CENTER NEAR THE
WASHINGTON/OREGON/IDAHO BORDER 00Z SATURDAY. BEST THUNDER CHANCES
LOOK LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN NEAR THE MT ADAMS AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING LIKELIHOOD HEADING SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FROM AREAS AWAY
FROM MT ADAMS...EASTERN SKAMANIA COUNTY...BUT COULD CERTAINLY STILL
SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF THE OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON CASCADES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY
TO MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE MARINE
INFLUENCED LOWER LEVELS. JBONK/BOWEN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS
WILL ONLY BRING AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM
NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...EXCEPT SATELLITE AND
NEARBY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS PATCHY MVFR CIGS NORTH
OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA TODAY ARE DUE TO
THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DECAYING SURFACE
FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 15Z...AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE AS REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FRIDAY
AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
NE PACIFIC INTO NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...AND S
OF CASCADE HEAD. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211013
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
312 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SKIES HAVE REMAINED LARGELY
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THUS FAR. FEEL LIKE WE ARE WALKING A
FINE LINE BETWEEN RADIATIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND CLEAR SKIES.
ONLY SEEING STRATUS FROM ABOUT SEASIDE AND NORTH ALONG THE COAST
PLUS SOME SPOTTY ACTION NEARER THE WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME PATCHY FOG  FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST WITH
TILLAMOOK AIRPORT REPORTING IT WITH OTHER COASTAL VALLEY LOCATIONS
LIKELY SATURATING AS WELL. DO EXPECT SOME OTHER AREAS WILL FILL IN
BEFORE MID MORNING BUT DO NOT HAVE SOLID CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE.
THUS EXPECT SOME UPDATING WILL BE NECESSARY AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.

NEXT TURNED ATTENTION TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND CLOSING LOW
SLIDING DOWN THE BC COAST. AM VERY TORN WITH HOW TO HANDLE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE EC AND NAM CONTINUE TO
SHOW VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA WHILE THE GFS AND THE GEM DO NOT. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS
IS A DISTINCT LACK OF WIDESPREAD SATURATED LAYERS FROM JUST ABOUT
ALL BUT THE NAM. FOR NOW...RELUCTANTLY LEANED ON THE NIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM AND BROUGHT A DRIZZLE MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE OTHER MODELS ARE AT LEAST GIVING
MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST FEW AREAS.

LATER FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW AND
HAVE REASONABLE AGREEMENT BY PLACING THE LOW CENTER NEAR THE
WASHINGTON/OREGON/IDAHO TRIPLE POINT BY 00Z SATURDAY. HAVE NOT SEEN
MUCH VARIATION FROM YESTERDAYS RUNS ASIDE FROM A BIT MORE STRENGTH
TO THE LOW CIRCULATION. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST THUNDER THREAT TO
REMAIN NEAR THE MT ADAMS AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING CHANCES HEADING SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE MARINE INFLUENCED LOWER
LEVELS. FEEL WE REALLY NEED THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF SOLAR HEATING
TO DRIVE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY SO DECIDED
TO REMOVE THE SHOWER THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS
WILL ONLY BRING AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM
NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH TWO PRIMARY EXCEPTIONS. FIRST...AN MVFR DECK OF
MARINE STRATUS AT AROUND 2000 FT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE S
WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST. EXPECT THIS TO BUILD A BIT FURTHER
S AND ALSO PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA...BUT WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADIENTS THIS MAY NOT GET MUCH PAST KKLS. MEANWHILE...CLOUD DECK
DEVELOPING NEAR THE S WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AT AROUND 3500
FT. THIS DECK SHOULD EXPAND S AND BUILD W TOWARDS THE N WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. EXPECT VARIABLE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK PRIMARILY N OF
COLUMBIA RIVER BUT MAY DRIFT AS FAR S AS KPDX/KTTD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRIMARILY CLEAR DAY THU ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKELY VFR WITH ONLY A SCATTERED
DECK FROM 19Z ONWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES TODAY. MAY SEE A CLOUD DECK
AROUND 3500 FT BUILD S AND E FROM CASCADE FOOTHILLS...PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER ERN APPROACHES. LESS CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
DEVELOPING AT TERMINAL. AFT 17Z EXPECT VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z FRI.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FT RANGE...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT
STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS REMAINING AROUND 8 SECONDS. LIGHT WNW
WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRES MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF S WINDS..BUT SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT AT 15 KT OR LESS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRES OVER NE PAC AND A THERMAL LOW BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...AND PRIMARILY S OF CASCADE
HEAD. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH THAT
MAY PUSH N INTO OREGON BY MIDWEEK...INCREASING SURFACE PRES
GRADIENTS AND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.   CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211013
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
312 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SKIES HAVE REMAINED LARGELY
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THUS FAR. FEEL LIKE WE ARE WALKING A
FINE LINE BETWEEN RADIATIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND CLEAR SKIES.
ONLY SEEING STRATUS FROM ABOUT SEASIDE AND NORTH ALONG THE COAST
PLUS SOME SPOTTY ACTION NEARER THE WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME PATCHY FOG  FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST WITH
TILLAMOOK AIRPORT REPORTING IT WITH OTHER COASTAL VALLEY LOCATIONS
LIKELY SATURATING AS WELL. DO EXPECT SOME OTHER AREAS WILL FILL IN
BEFORE MID MORNING BUT DO NOT HAVE SOLID CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE.
THUS EXPECT SOME UPDATING WILL BE NECESSARY AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.

NEXT TURNED ATTENTION TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND CLOSING LOW
SLIDING DOWN THE BC COAST. AM VERY TORN WITH HOW TO HANDLE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE EC AND NAM CONTINUE TO
SHOW VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA WHILE THE GFS AND THE GEM DO NOT. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS
IS A DISTINCT LACK OF WIDESPREAD SATURATED LAYERS FROM JUST ABOUT
ALL BUT THE NAM. FOR NOW...RELUCTANTLY LEANED ON THE NIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM AND BROUGHT A DRIZZLE MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE OTHER MODELS ARE AT LEAST GIVING
MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST FEW AREAS.

LATER FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW AND
HAVE REASONABLE AGREEMENT BY PLACING THE LOW CENTER NEAR THE
WASHINGTON/OREGON/IDAHO TRIPLE POINT BY 00Z SATURDAY. HAVE NOT SEEN
MUCH VARIATION FROM YESTERDAYS RUNS ASIDE FROM A BIT MORE STRENGTH
TO THE LOW CIRCULATION. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST THUNDER THREAT TO
REMAIN NEAR THE MT ADAMS AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING CHANCES HEADING SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE MARINE INFLUENCED LOWER
LEVELS. FEEL WE REALLY NEED THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF SOLAR HEATING
TO DRIVE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY SO DECIDED
TO REMOVE THE SHOWER THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS
WILL ONLY BRING AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM
NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH TWO PRIMARY EXCEPTIONS. FIRST...AN MVFR DECK OF
MARINE STRATUS AT AROUND 2000 FT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE S
WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST. EXPECT THIS TO BUILD A BIT FURTHER
S AND ALSO PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA...BUT WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADIENTS THIS MAY NOT GET MUCH PAST KKLS. MEANWHILE...CLOUD DECK
DEVELOPING NEAR THE S WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AT AROUND 3500
FT. THIS DECK SHOULD EXPAND S AND BUILD W TOWARDS THE N WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. EXPECT VARIABLE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK PRIMARILY N OF
COLUMBIA RIVER BUT MAY DRIFT AS FAR S AS KPDX/KTTD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRIMARILY CLEAR DAY THU ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKELY VFR WITH ONLY A SCATTERED
DECK FROM 19Z ONWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES TODAY. MAY SEE A CLOUD DECK
AROUND 3500 FT BUILD S AND E FROM CASCADE FOOTHILLS...PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER ERN APPROACHES. LESS CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
DEVELOPING AT TERMINAL. AFT 17Z EXPECT VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z FRI.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FT RANGE...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT
STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS REMAINING AROUND 8 SECONDS. LIGHT WNW
WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRES MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF S WINDS..BUT SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT AT 15 KT OR LESS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRES OVER NE PAC AND A THERMAL LOW BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...AND PRIMARILY S OF CASCADE
HEAD. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH THAT
MAY PUSH N INTO OREGON BY MIDWEEK...INCREASING SURFACE PRES
GRADIENTS AND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.   CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 210351 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
851 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
COVERING MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON EARLIER
TODAY HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE CLEAR SKIES AT CURRENT. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE STRATUS WILL EXPAND ALONG MOST OF
THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS STRATUS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND BACK BUILD TO THE WEST. THESE TWO CLOUD DECKS
WILL LIKELY END UP FILLING MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE CONTINUING...EXPECT
SIMILAR DRIZZLE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE SW WA LOWLANDS... OREGON COAST...AND WEST
SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED DRIZZLE AREAS.

EXPECT TOMORROW TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SIMILARLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SHORT-WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE TROUGH BASE...AIDED BY A 80-100 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AREAS OF LIGHT QPF FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. WOULD
EXPECT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT
LEAST AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWLANDS AND POSSIBLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD
TO THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK BUT MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON FOR A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE INFLUENCED LOW
LEVELS. CYCLONIC JET FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
CASCADE CREST TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SAT...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING. PYLE/WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. MVFR
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE SW WA/NW OR COAST WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND ALONG
THE COLUMBIA RIVER AFTER 06Z THU...GRADUALLY COMBINING WITH
STRATUS THAT WILL FORM AGAINST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND FILL IN
MOST OF CLARK COUNTY AND THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER 12Z
THU. CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND 2000 FT. FURTHER SOUTH...
MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE STRATUS OUT SO MAY SEE SOME FOG/LOW
STRATUS FORM FROM 06-10Z THU...PARTICULARLY AT KONP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000 FT FROM 13Z-17Z THU SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT KPDX AND
EASTERN APPROACHES. BOWEN/27

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AT 10 SECONDS BUT THERE`S
ALSO ENERGY AT 8 SECONDS SO SEAS WILL BE A BIT STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NW WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NW
WIND AND SWELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210351 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
851 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
COVERING MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON EARLIER
TODAY HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE CLEAR SKIES AT CURRENT. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE STRATUS WILL EXPAND ALONG MOST OF
THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS STRATUS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND BACK BUILD TO THE WEST. THESE TWO CLOUD DECKS
WILL LIKELY END UP FILLING MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE CONTINUING...EXPECT
SIMILAR DRIZZLE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE SW WA LOWLANDS... OREGON COAST...AND WEST
SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED DRIZZLE AREAS.

EXPECT TOMORROW TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SIMILARLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SHORT-WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE TROUGH BASE...AIDED BY A 80-100 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AREAS OF LIGHT QPF FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. WOULD
EXPECT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT
LEAST AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWLANDS AND POSSIBLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD
TO THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK BUT MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON FOR A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE INFLUENCED LOW
LEVELS. CYCLONIC JET FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
CASCADE CREST TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SAT...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING. PYLE/WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. MVFR
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE SW WA/NW OR COAST WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND ALONG
THE COLUMBIA RIVER AFTER 06Z THU...GRADUALLY COMBINING WITH
STRATUS THAT WILL FORM AGAINST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND FILL IN
MOST OF CLARK COUNTY AND THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER 12Z
THU. CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND 2000 FT. FURTHER SOUTH...
MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE STRATUS OUT SO MAY SEE SOME FOG/LOW
STRATUS FORM FROM 06-10Z THU...PARTICULARLY AT KONP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000 FT FROM 13Z-17Z THU SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT KPDX AND
EASTERN APPROACHES. BOWEN/27

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AT 10 SECONDS BUT THERE`S
ALSO ENERGY AT 8 SECONDS SO SEAS WILL BE A BIT STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NW WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NW
WIND AND SWELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 202122
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORNING STRATUS LAYER HAS
TRANSFORMED INTO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH CIGS GENERALLY 035
TO 045. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT SIMILAR DRIZZLE COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY. SW WA LOWLANDS... OREGON
COAST...AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED
DRIZZLE AREAS. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT UP TO 4.0 MB AS OF 20Z...WHICH
NORMALLY RESULTS IN AT LEAST 25-30 MPH GUSTS NEAR HOOD RIVER.
AUGSPURGER...AN ELEVATED BPA SITE ON THE WASHINGTON SIDE OF THE
GORGE...GUSTING TO 35 MPH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHANGES CENTER ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE AREAS OF LIGHT QPF
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING AS A REINFORCING SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
TROUGH BASE...AIDED BY A 80-100 KT 300 MB JET STREAK. NAM SHOWS
FAIRLY ROBUST 700 MB OMEGA FOCUSED OVER SW WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON
12Z FRI. WOULD EXPECT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWLANDS AND POSSIBLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ANY
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD
TO THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK BUT MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON FOR A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE INFLUENCED LOW
LEVELS. CYCLONIC JET FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
CASCADE CREST TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SAT...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING. WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT CLOUDS
AND SOME CIGS 3000 TO 4000 FT. CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INLAND WHILE ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MVFR CIGS
BACK TO COAST AFT 02Z. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 2500 FT BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST
LIKELIHOOD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIVER. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE VALLEY BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH OF PDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT THURSDAY MORNING AFTER
13Z BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AT 10 SECONDS BUT THERE`S
ALSO ENERGY AT 8 SECONDS SO SEAS WILL BE A BIT STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NW WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NW
WIND AND SWELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 202122
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORNING STRATUS LAYER HAS
TRANSFORMED INTO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH CIGS GENERALLY 035
TO 045. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT SIMILAR DRIZZLE COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY. SW WA LOWLANDS... OREGON
COAST...AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED
DRIZZLE AREAS. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT UP TO 4.0 MB AS OF 20Z...WHICH
NORMALLY RESULTS IN AT LEAST 25-30 MPH GUSTS NEAR HOOD RIVER.
AUGSPURGER...AN ELEVATED BPA SITE ON THE WASHINGTON SIDE OF THE
GORGE...GUSTING TO 35 MPH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHANGES CENTER ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE AREAS OF LIGHT QPF
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING AS A REINFORCING SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
TROUGH BASE...AIDED BY A 80-100 KT 300 MB JET STREAK. NAM SHOWS
FAIRLY ROBUST 700 MB OMEGA FOCUSED OVER SW WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON
12Z FRI. WOULD EXPECT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWLANDS AND POSSIBLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ANY
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD
TO THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK BUT MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON FOR A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE INFLUENCED LOW
LEVELS. CYCLONIC JET FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
CASCADE CREST TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SAT...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING. WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT CLOUDS
AND SOME CIGS 3000 TO 4000 FT. CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INLAND WHILE ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MVFR CIGS
BACK TO COAST AFT 02Z. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 2500 FT BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST
LIKELIHOOD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIVER. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE VALLEY BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH OF PDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT THURSDAY MORNING AFTER
13Z BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AT 10 SECONDS BUT THERE`S
ALSO ENERGY AT 8 SECONDS SO SEAS WILL BE A BIT STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NW WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NW
WIND AND SWELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 201450
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
746 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES
ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND
MAINTAINING ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOLID STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...REACHING THE CASCADE CREST. ESTIMATE THE
LAYER IS 1000 TO 1500 FEET THICK AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE TO
BURN OFF THIS MORNING. AS THEY DO...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND 20 MPH AND EVEN THEN ONLY FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS THE EXPOSED HIGHER GAP TERRAIN
NEAR THE GORGE...SUCH AS BPA SITE AUGSPURGER...WHICH IS ALREADY
GUSTING TO 40 MPH AS OF 14Z.

AFTERNOON ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING. WILL ALSO SEE THE MIDLEVEL FLOW
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP DRY THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS RESULTING IN FEWER MORNING CLOUDS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AND
SHOULD ALSO LOWER DEW POINTS AS WELL.

THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
SLIDE DOWN THE B.C. COAST AND ACROSS THE PACNW BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE
TREND OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS OF RUNS HAS BEEN TO PUSH A BRIEFLY
CLOSED LOW CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE CASCADES. THERE IS STILL SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE ACTUAL LOW
TRACK BUT IN GENERAL FEEL GOOD ABOUT WHERE THE EVENING SHIFT ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES. LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL WEAKENED
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVELS. AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE THREAT
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDER THREAT WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... NO FURTHER CHANGES.
REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS (GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX) ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. CLOUD DECK WITH BASES 4500 TO
5000 FT AGAINST CASCADES HAVE BACKBUILT WESTWARD THIS
AM...REACHING BACK AS FAR AS COAST RANGE. ANOTHER DECK AROUND 2000
TO 3000 FT ALONG COAST HAS PUSHED INLAND THIS AM AND WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT INLAND AREAS FROM COWLITZ LOWLANDS TO N WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. AFTER 19Z...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...BECOMING
SCATTERED BY 22Z OR 23Z. ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MVFR CIGS BACK TO
COAST AFT 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MAIN DECK NEAR 5000 FT THROUGH
21Z AND SECONDARY DECK FROM THE GORGE AROUND 3500 FT. CLOUDS
BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ONLY BY 22Z.
ROCKEY/BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THIS MORNING. WINDS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM OFFSHORE ARE PRETTY LIGHT...SO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO UPDATE
THE FIRST PERIOD. BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 5 FT SEAS AT AROUND 11
SECONDS WITH OCCASIONAL OBS AT 7 SECONDS BUT LONGER PERIOD SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. NW WINDS CONTINUE...REMAINING AROUND 15
KT OR LESS WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KT. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 201450
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
746 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES
ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND
MAINTAINING ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOLID STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...REACHING THE CASCADE CREST. ESTIMATE THE
LAYER IS 1000 TO 1500 FEET THICK AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE TO
BURN OFF THIS MORNING. AS THEY DO...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND 20 MPH AND EVEN THEN ONLY FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS THE EXPOSED HIGHER GAP TERRAIN
NEAR THE GORGE...SUCH AS BPA SITE AUGSPURGER...WHICH IS ALREADY
GUSTING TO 40 MPH AS OF 14Z.

AFTERNOON ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING. WILL ALSO SEE THE MIDLEVEL FLOW
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP DRY THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS RESULTING IN FEWER MORNING CLOUDS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AND
SHOULD ALSO LOWER DEW POINTS AS WELL.

THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
SLIDE DOWN THE B.C. COAST AND ACROSS THE PACNW BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE
TREND OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS OF RUNS HAS BEEN TO PUSH A BRIEFLY
CLOSED LOW CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE CASCADES. THERE IS STILL SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE ACTUAL LOW
TRACK BUT IN GENERAL FEEL GOOD ABOUT WHERE THE EVENING SHIFT ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES. LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL WEAKENED
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVELS. AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE THREAT
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDER THREAT WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... NO FURTHER CHANGES.
REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS (GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX) ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. CLOUD DECK WITH BASES 4500 TO
5000 FT AGAINST CASCADES HAVE BACKBUILT WESTWARD THIS
AM...REACHING BACK AS FAR AS COAST RANGE. ANOTHER DECK AROUND 2000
TO 3000 FT ALONG COAST HAS PUSHED INLAND THIS AM AND WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT INLAND AREAS FROM COWLITZ LOWLANDS TO N WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. AFTER 19Z...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...BECOMING
SCATTERED BY 22Z OR 23Z. ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MVFR CIGS BACK TO
COAST AFT 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MAIN DECK NEAR 5000 FT THROUGH
21Z AND SECONDARY DECK FROM THE GORGE AROUND 3500 FT. CLOUDS
BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ONLY BY 22Z.
ROCKEY/BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THIS MORNING. WINDS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM OFFSHORE ARE PRETTY LIGHT...SO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO UPDATE
THE FIRST PERIOD. BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 5 FT SEAS AT AROUND 11
SECONDS WITH OCCASIONAL OBS AT 7 SECONDS BUT LONGER PERIOD SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. NW WINDS CONTINUE...REMAINING AROUND 15
KT OR LESS WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KT. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 201011
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
310 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AND PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH
OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATELY STRONG MARINE PUSH
HAS PEAKED AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. STRATUS ALONG THE CASCADES IS
BACK BUILDING ACROSS THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE TOPS PUSHING UP TOWARD
THE CASCADE CREST THIS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED LAYER IS 1000 TO 1500 FEET
THICK AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING. AS
THEY DO...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND 20 MPH AND
EVEN THEN ONLY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE MARINE FRONT PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE COAST RANGE GAPS. AS SUCH...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR CLOSER TO THE 3 TO 4 PM TIME FRAME WITH SEA BREEZE LIMITING
FURTHER GAINS THEREAFTER. THE CENTRAL GORGE WILL AGAIN RECEIVE THE
BULK OF THE WINDS TODAY AS THE COLUMBIA BASIN HEATS UP AND DRAWS MORE
AIR THROUGH THE MT HOOD/MT ADAMS GORGE GAP. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW SPOTS AGAIN REACH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
SPEEDS ACROSS THE EXPOSED HIGHER GAP TERRAIN NEAR THE GORGE.

AFTERNOON ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING. WILL ALSO SEE THE MIDLEVEL FLOW
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP DRY THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS RESULTING IN FEWER MORNING CLOUDS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
SLIDE DOWN THE B.C. COAST AND ACROSS THE PACNW BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE
TREND OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS OF RUNS HAS BEEN TO PUSH A BRIEFLY
CLOSED LOW CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE CASCADES. THERE IS STILL SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE ACTUAL LOW
TRACK BUT IN GENERAL FEEL GOOD ABOUT WHERE THE EVENING SHIFT ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES. LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL WEAKENED
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVELS. AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE THREAT
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDER THREAT WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... NO FURTHER CHANGES.
REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS (GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX) ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. WORST CONDITIONS ARE ON OREGON
COAST WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR STRATUS. CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
4500 TO 5000 FT AGAINST CASCADES BACK BUILDING WESTWARD THIS AM...
REACHING BACK AS FAR AS COAST RANGE BY DAYBREAK. ANOTHER DECK
AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT ALONG COAST WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AM AND
AFFECT INLAND AREAS FROM COWLITZ LOWLANDS TO N WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
AFTER 19Z...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...BECOMING SCATTERED BY
22Z OR 23Z. ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MVFR CIGS BACK TO COAST AFT 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MAIN DECK NEAR 5000 FT THROUGH
21Z. MVFR STRATUS PUSHING UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER WILL ARRIVE
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. SO WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS OF 2500 FT AND DECK
NEAR 5000 FT THIS AM. CLOUDS BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS ONLY BY 22Z.                       ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS MAINTAINS N TO NW WINDS ON
THE COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT STRONG...SO WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. NW SWELL OF 4 TO 6 FT CONTINUES...THOUGH
MAY SEE BRIEF BOOSTS TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER AND FAR S WATERS IN
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WHEN WINDS PEAK.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 201011
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
310 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AND PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH
OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATELY STRONG MARINE PUSH
HAS PEAKED AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. STRATUS ALONG THE CASCADES IS
BACK BUILDING ACROSS THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE TOPS PUSHING UP TOWARD
THE CASCADE CREST THIS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED LAYER IS 1000 TO 1500 FEET
THICK AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING. AS
THEY DO...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND 20 MPH AND
EVEN THEN ONLY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE MARINE FRONT PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE COAST RANGE GAPS. AS SUCH...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR CLOSER TO THE 3 TO 4 PM TIME FRAME WITH SEA BREEZE LIMITING
FURTHER GAINS THEREAFTER. THE CENTRAL GORGE WILL AGAIN RECEIVE THE
BULK OF THE WINDS TODAY AS THE COLUMBIA BASIN HEATS UP AND DRAWS MORE
AIR THROUGH THE MT HOOD/MT ADAMS GORGE GAP. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW SPOTS AGAIN REACH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
SPEEDS ACROSS THE EXPOSED HIGHER GAP TERRAIN NEAR THE GORGE.

AFTERNOON ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING. WILL ALSO SEE THE MIDLEVEL FLOW
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP DRY THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS RESULTING IN FEWER MORNING CLOUDS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
SLIDE DOWN THE B.C. COAST AND ACROSS THE PACNW BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE
TREND OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS OF RUNS HAS BEEN TO PUSH A BRIEFLY
CLOSED LOW CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE CASCADES. THERE IS STILL SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE ACTUAL LOW
TRACK BUT IN GENERAL FEEL GOOD ABOUT WHERE THE EVENING SHIFT ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES. LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL WEAKENED
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVELS. AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE THREAT
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDER THREAT WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... NO FURTHER CHANGES.
REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS (GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX) ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. WORST CONDITIONS ARE ON OREGON
COAST WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR STRATUS. CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
4500 TO 5000 FT AGAINST CASCADES BACK BUILDING WESTWARD THIS AM...
REACHING BACK AS FAR AS COAST RANGE BY DAYBREAK. ANOTHER DECK
AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT ALONG COAST WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AM AND
AFFECT INLAND AREAS FROM COWLITZ LOWLANDS TO N WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
AFTER 19Z...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...BECOMING SCATTERED BY
22Z OR 23Z. ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MVFR CIGS BACK TO COAST AFT 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MAIN DECK NEAR 5000 FT THROUGH
21Z. MVFR STRATUS PUSHING UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER WILL ARRIVE
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. SO WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS OF 2500 FT AND DECK
NEAR 5000 FT THIS AM. CLOUDS BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS ONLY BY 22Z.                       ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS MAINTAINS N TO NW WINDS ON
THE COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT STRONG...SO WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. NW SWELL OF 4 TO 6 FT CONTINUES...THOUGH
MAY SEE BRIEF BOOSTS TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER AND FAR S WATERS IN
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WHEN WINDS PEAK.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200407
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AND PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH
OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOG PRODUCT THIS EVENING SHOWS MARINE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO PUSH UP INTO THE COAST RANGE GAPS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
INITIALLY...BUT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FURTHER
INLAND...SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IS BEGINNING TO
FLATTEN INTO A STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 5-7KFT. THE NAM...WRFGFS AND GEM
MODELS ALL INDICATE THESE CLOUDS WILL FILL IN AND EXPAND WESTWARD
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE SKY COVER
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS IDEA. OFTEN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN HILLSBORO AND CORVALLIS CAN REMAIN CLOUD
FREE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SO SKY COVER WAS TRENDED DOWN IN THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEVERTHELESS...A 10MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLIER THIS EVENING BETWEEN ASTORIA AND PENDLETON
AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLOUDIER SOLUTIONS ARE
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

MODELS LOOSELY AGREE A CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST FRIDAY. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY OF SOUTH
WASHINGTON...ON FRIDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PORTLAND METRO AREA WILL REMAIN
CAPPED...GIVEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BRIEFLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES COULD DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SUBURBS OF PORTLAND FRIDAY EVENING IN A PATTERN SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO LATE MAY 2012. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT DIGEST THE FULL
SUITE OF 00Z MODELS BEFORE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ARE
MADE.

OTHERWISE...LARGE SCALE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...BRINGING
PERIODS OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
DGEX ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BETWEEN
1000-500 MB AS WELL AS 1000-700 MB WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES IN OUR AREA. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY


&&

.AVIATION...A BREAK IN THE MARINE STRATUS OCCURRED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MUCH OF THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST REMAINS VFR AT CURRENT. HOWEVER IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS HAVE
NOW PUSHED BACK INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
STRATUS
TO SURGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS ALSO CURRENTLY VFR IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KPDX AND KTTD BY AROUND 12Z. AT
THE SAME TIME...A CLOUD DECK WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND BACK BUILDING TO THE WEST OVER THE VALLEY TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS DECK TO BE VFR AT AROUND 5000 FT. ANY
INTERIOR MVFR STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 18Z. EXPECT THE
COASTAL SITES TO ALSO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT SOME POINT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS PUSHING UP THE COLUMBIA WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 17Z OR 18Z. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS TODAY HAVE CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING. SEAS
CURRENTLY SIT AT 5 TO 6 FT AND THE PRIMARILY SWELL PERIOD HAS
INCREASED TO ABOUT 11 SEC...UP FROM THE 7 TO 8 SEC EARLIER. WINDS
ALSO FAIRLY LIGHT...AT NW 5 TO 10 KT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE
PAC...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS W-NW SWELL DECREASES
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200407
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AND PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH
OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOG PRODUCT THIS EVENING SHOWS MARINE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO PUSH UP INTO THE COAST RANGE GAPS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
INITIALLY...BUT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FURTHER
INLAND...SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IS BEGINNING TO
FLATTEN INTO A STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 5-7KFT. THE NAM...WRFGFS AND GEM
MODELS ALL INDICATE THESE CLOUDS WILL FILL IN AND EXPAND WESTWARD
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE SKY COVER
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS IDEA. OFTEN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN HILLSBORO AND CORVALLIS CAN REMAIN CLOUD
FREE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SO SKY COVER WAS TRENDED DOWN IN THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEVERTHELESS...A 10MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLIER THIS EVENING BETWEEN ASTORIA AND PENDLETON
AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLOUDIER SOLUTIONS ARE
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

MODELS LOOSELY AGREE A CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST FRIDAY. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY OF SOUTH
WASHINGTON...ON FRIDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PORTLAND METRO AREA WILL REMAIN
CAPPED...GIVEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BRIEFLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES COULD DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SUBURBS OF PORTLAND FRIDAY EVENING IN A PATTERN SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO LATE MAY 2012. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT DIGEST THE FULL
SUITE OF 00Z MODELS BEFORE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ARE
MADE.

OTHERWISE...LARGE SCALE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...BRINGING
PERIODS OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
DGEX ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BETWEEN
1000-500 MB AS WELL AS 1000-700 MB WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES IN OUR AREA. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY


&&

.AVIATION...A BREAK IN THE MARINE STRATUS OCCURRED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MUCH OF THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST REMAINS VFR AT CURRENT. HOWEVER IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS HAVE
NOW PUSHED BACK INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
STRATUS
TO SURGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS ALSO CURRENTLY VFR IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KPDX AND KTTD BY AROUND 12Z. AT
THE SAME TIME...A CLOUD DECK WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND BACK BUILDING TO THE WEST OVER THE VALLEY TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS DECK TO BE VFR AT AROUND 5000 FT. ANY
INTERIOR MVFR STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 18Z. EXPECT THE
COASTAL SITES TO ALSO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT SOME POINT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS PUSHING UP THE COLUMBIA WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 17Z OR 18Z. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS TODAY HAVE CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING. SEAS
CURRENTLY SIT AT 5 TO 6 FT AND THE PRIMARILY SWELL PERIOD HAS
INCREASED TO ABOUT 11 SEC...UP FROM THE 7 TO 8 SEC EARLIER. WINDS
ALSO FAIRLY LIGHT...AT NW 5 TO 10 KT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE
PAC...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS W-NW SWELL DECREASES
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 192134
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AND PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATION NETWORK THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A STUBBORN LAYER OF STRATUS
REMAINING OVER THE NORTH COAST AREA. THE STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST HAS MOVED A FEW MILES OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE COASTAL STRIP THIS EVENING AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO AND NEAR THE PORTLAND AREA WED MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE GORGE THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A PATTERN OF COASTAL MARINE
STRATUS AND PERIODS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS OVER THE INLAND AREAS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AFTER
THURSDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE PACNW AND IT WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  I ADDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WA AND OREGON CASCADES FOR FRIDAY IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM.  TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
DGEX ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BETWEEN
1000-500 MB AS WELL AS 1000-700 MB WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES IN OUR AREA. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH
CENTRAL OREGON BREAKING OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN EARLY DROP TO IFR VIS BEFORE SUNSET. INLAND AREAS
REMAIN VFR WITH EVEN HIGH CLOUDS HAVING CLEARED OUT. MARINE
STRATUS PUSH LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THIS MORNING BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF SPB/PDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW MVFR CIGS
PUSHING UP COLUMBIA RIVER WILL SPREAD INTO CLARK COUNTY BY 12Z
THEN POSSIBLY SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS SHOWING A WEAKER PUSH THAN
THEY DID EARLIER TODAY...SO NOT CERTAIN THAT CIGS WILL REACH PDX
TERMINAL BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SCT AT AROUND 2000 FT AFTER 13Z.
BOWEN/ROCKEY

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN STEEP BUT BUOYS SHOW PERIODS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED TO 8 SECONDS...SO 00Z END TIME LOOKS GOOD FOR SCA. WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN NW 10 TO 15 KT TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...BUT
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS W-NW SWELL DECREASES LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 192134
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AND PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATION NETWORK THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A STUBBORN LAYER OF STRATUS
REMAINING OVER THE NORTH COAST AREA. THE STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST HAS MOVED A FEW MILES OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE COASTAL STRIP THIS EVENING AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO AND NEAR THE PORTLAND AREA WED MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE GORGE THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A PATTERN OF COASTAL MARINE
STRATUS AND PERIODS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS OVER THE INLAND AREAS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AFTER
THURSDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE PACNW AND IT WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  I ADDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WA AND OREGON CASCADES FOR FRIDAY IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM.  TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
DGEX ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BETWEEN
1000-500 MB AS WELL AS 1000-700 MB WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES IN OUR AREA. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH
CENTRAL OREGON BREAKING OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN EARLY DROP TO IFR VIS BEFORE SUNSET. INLAND AREAS
REMAIN VFR WITH EVEN HIGH CLOUDS HAVING CLEARED OUT. MARINE
STRATUS PUSH LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THIS MORNING BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF SPB/PDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW MVFR CIGS
PUSHING UP COLUMBIA RIVER WILL SPREAD INTO CLARK COUNTY BY 12Z
THEN POSSIBLY SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS SHOWING A WEAKER PUSH THAN
THEY DID EARLIER TODAY...SO NOT CERTAIN THAT CIGS WILL REACH PDX
TERMINAL BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SCT AT AROUND 2000 FT AFTER 13Z.
BOWEN/ROCKEY

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN STEEP BUT BUOYS SHOW PERIODS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED TO 8 SECONDS...SO 00Z END TIME LOOKS GOOD FOR SCA. WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN NW 10 TO 15 KT TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...BUT
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS W-NW SWELL DECREASES LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 191601
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO NEAR KELSO. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ONLY
PRECIPITATION RECEIVED FROM THE FRONT WAS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST OVERNIGHT.  WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY
AND ALSO IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS GRADIENTS INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE PACIFIC
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING BECOMING
APPARENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER
BROAD NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS PATTERN GENERALLY
BRINGS COASTAL STRATUS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. INLAND AREAS WILL
START OUT HAVING MORNING CLOUDS THEN CLEARING BUT EVEN THE INLAND
MOISTURE BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME AND FEEL INLAND AREAS MAY
STAY OUT OF THE MORNING CLOUDS COME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. NEXT THREAT FOR ANY WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE IS FRIDAY WITH
MODELS ADVERTISING A STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION OVER THE INTERIOR
PACNW. SO FAR...ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LOOK TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE
AREA BUT SUBTLE WESTERLY SHIFTS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA. TW/JBONK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING STATUS QUO
FOR THE UPPER PATTERN. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW FROM FRIDAY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVES SLIDING SOUTH
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TRIED TO DIG
OVER THE INTERIOR PACNW MONDAY BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST OF
THE CWA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY ALONG THE COAST WITH
SUNDAY ON TRACK FOR INLAND AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON TAP
UNLESS THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOWS END UP PUSHING FURTHER WEST AS A
RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER AND PUSHING
EVEN FURTHER NORTH. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY BEHIND WEAK
FRONT. STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG COAST...BUT LIFT FROM IFR THIS
AM TO LOW MVFR BY 19Z. INLAND REMAINS MOSTLY VFR UNDER VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR VIS WILL MAKE AN EARLY
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LOW
MVFR CIGS PUSHING UP COLUMBIA RIVER WILL SPREAD INTO CLARK COUNTY
BY 13Z...THEN SPREADING S AND E AS FAR S AS KUAO. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 18Z. ROCKEY/BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. SEAS VERY
STEEP WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 FT AT 7 TO 8
SECONDS. SEAS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS
INCREASING TO AROUND 9 SECONDS. WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 TO 15
KT TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT. WILL KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR POSSIBILITY OF MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AS BUOYS 29 AND 89 ARE
ALREADY RATHER GUSTY THIS MORNING AND CALM WINDS AT BUOY 50 ARE
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK AS
HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...BUT SEAS WILL FLATTEN AS SWELL
DECREASES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 191601
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO NEAR KELSO. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ONLY
PRECIPITATION RECEIVED FROM THE FRONT WAS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST OVERNIGHT.  WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY
AND ALSO IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS GRADIENTS INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE PACIFIC
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING BECOMING
APPARENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER
BROAD NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS PATTERN GENERALLY
BRINGS COASTAL STRATUS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. INLAND AREAS WILL
START OUT HAVING MORNING CLOUDS THEN CLEARING BUT EVEN THE INLAND
MOISTURE BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME AND FEEL INLAND AREAS MAY
STAY OUT OF THE MORNING CLOUDS COME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. NEXT THREAT FOR ANY WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE IS FRIDAY WITH
MODELS ADVERTISING A STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION OVER THE INTERIOR
PACNW. SO FAR...ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LOOK TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE
AREA BUT SUBTLE WESTERLY SHIFTS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA. TW/JBONK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING STATUS QUO
FOR THE UPPER PATTERN. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW FROM FRIDAY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVES SLIDING SOUTH
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TRIED TO DIG
OVER THE INTERIOR PACNW MONDAY BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST OF
THE CWA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY ALONG THE COAST WITH
SUNDAY ON TRACK FOR INLAND AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON TAP
UNLESS THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOWS END UP PUSHING FURTHER WEST AS A
RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER AND PUSHING
EVEN FURTHER NORTH. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY BEHIND WEAK
FRONT. STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG COAST...BUT LIFT FROM IFR THIS
AM TO LOW MVFR BY 19Z. INLAND REMAINS MOSTLY VFR UNDER VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR VIS WILL MAKE AN EARLY
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LOW
MVFR CIGS PUSHING UP COLUMBIA RIVER WILL SPREAD INTO CLARK COUNTY
BY 13Z...THEN SPREADING S AND E AS FAR S AS KUAO. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 18Z. ROCKEY/BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. SEAS VERY
STEEP WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 FT AT 7 TO 8
SECONDS. SEAS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS
INCREASING TO AROUND 9 SECONDS. WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 TO 15
KT TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT. WILL KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR POSSIBILITY OF MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AS BUOYS 29 AND 89 ARE
ALREADY RATHER GUSTY THIS MORNING AND CALM WINDS AT BUOY 50 ARE
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK AS
HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...BUT SEAS WILL FLATTEN AS SWELL
DECREASES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 190903
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
203 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MORNING CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT AFFECTED THE
REGION THE LAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALREADY NEARLY ACROSS THE CASCADES AS INDICATED
BY SURFACE PRESSURES BOTTOMING OUT AND NOW RISING. IT HAS INDEED
PROVEN TO BE DRY ASIDE FROM A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST A FEW HOURS AGO. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ALONG THE COAST FOR
THE TIME BEING WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINING AND NOT MUCH FOG TO
SPEAK OF NOW THAT THE FRONT HAS PASSED. WILL KEEP THE FOG AND
DRIZZLE MENTION IN FOR NOW, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONTAL EFFECTS SHOULD
SETTLE DOWN BY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASED STABILITY RETURNING AND THUS
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND OROGRAPHIC DRIZZLE. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT
YET MAKING IT PAST THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES PER GROUND OBS BUT
LINGERING FRONTAL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE VIEW FROM ABOVE.
WILL LET THE HIGHER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THEN WAIT UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE BEFORE POTENTIALLY REMOVING THE CLOUDS FURTHER INLAND. WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MORE SO FOR THE CENTRAL
COLUMBIA GORGE AS GRADIENTS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS SHOULD MAKE KITE FLYERS AND WINDSURFERS HAPPY.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PACIFIC
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING BECOMING
APPARENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN GENERALLY
BRINGS COASTAL STRATUS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. INLAND AREAS WILL
START OUT HAVING MORNING CLOUDS THEN CLEARING BUT EVEN THE INLAND
MOISTURE BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME AND FEEL INLAND AREAS MAY
STAY OUT OF THE MORNING CLOUDS COME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH TIME. CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY LOCATIONS FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE COULD EVEN FLIRT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. NEXT THREAT FOR ANY WEATHER OF
SIGNIFICANCE IS FOR FRIDAY WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A STRENGTHENING
CIRCULATION OVER THE INTERIOR PACNW. SO FAR...ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
LOOK TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA BUT SUBTLE WESTERLY SHIFTS MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING STATUS QUO FOR THE UPPER PATTERN. THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW FROM FRIDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH WEAK
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TRIED TO DIG OVER THE INTERIOR PACNW
MONDAY BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY ALONG THE COAST WITH SUNDAY ON TRACK FOR
INLAND AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON TAP UNLESS THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOWS END UP PUSHING FURTHER WEST AS A RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER AND PUSHING EVEN FURTHER NORTH. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY BEHIND WEAK
FRONT. STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG COAST...BUT LIFT FROM IFR THIS
AM TO LOW MVFR BY 19Z. INLAND REMAINS MOSTLY VFR UNDER VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF LOW MVFR CIGS THAT
WILL SPREAD INTO SW WASH AND ALONG COLUMBIA RIVER TO KPDX/KTTD
BETWEEN 12Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LOW
MVFR CIGS PUSHING UP COLUMBIA RIVER WILL SPREAD INTO CLARK COUNTY
BY 13Z...THEN SPREADING S AND E AS FAR S AS KUAO. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 TO 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT AT TIMES. NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS WEEK AS OVERALL PATTERN OF
HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL PERSISTS.

W TO NW SWELL WILL RUN AT 6 TO 7 FT WITH PERIODS NEAR 7 SEC TODAY
THIS WILL CREATE STEEP WAVES...MAINLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL PUT
UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP SEAS ON THE WATERS FROM 10 TO 6O
MILES OFFSHORE. SEAS RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY ON THE OUTER
     WATERS...OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FROM 10 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 190903
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
203 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MORNING CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT AFFECTED THE
REGION THE LAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALREADY NEARLY ACROSS THE CASCADES AS INDICATED
BY SURFACE PRESSURES BOTTOMING OUT AND NOW RISING. IT HAS INDEED
PROVEN TO BE DRY ASIDE FROM A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST A FEW HOURS AGO. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ALONG THE COAST FOR
THE TIME BEING WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINING AND NOT MUCH FOG TO
SPEAK OF NOW THAT THE FRONT HAS PASSED. WILL KEEP THE FOG AND
DRIZZLE MENTION IN FOR NOW, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONTAL EFFECTS SHOULD
SETTLE DOWN BY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASED STABILITY RETURNING AND THUS
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND OROGRAPHIC DRIZZLE. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT
YET MAKING IT PAST THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES PER GROUND OBS BUT
LINGERING FRONTAL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE VIEW FROM ABOVE.
WILL LET THE HIGHER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THEN WAIT UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE BEFORE POTENTIALLY REMOVING THE CLOUDS FURTHER INLAND. WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MORE SO FOR THE CENTRAL
COLUMBIA GORGE AS GRADIENTS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS SHOULD MAKE KITE FLYERS AND WINDSURFERS HAPPY.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PACIFIC
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING BECOMING
APPARENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN GENERALLY
BRINGS COASTAL STRATUS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. INLAND AREAS WILL
START OUT HAVING MORNING CLOUDS THEN CLEARING BUT EVEN THE INLAND
MOISTURE BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME AND FEEL INLAND AREAS MAY
STAY OUT OF THE MORNING CLOUDS COME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH TIME. CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY LOCATIONS FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE COULD EVEN FLIRT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. NEXT THREAT FOR ANY WEATHER OF
SIGNIFICANCE IS FOR FRIDAY WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A STRENGTHENING
CIRCULATION OVER THE INTERIOR PACNW. SO FAR...ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
LOOK TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA BUT SUBTLE WESTERLY SHIFTS MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING STATUS QUO FOR THE UPPER PATTERN. THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW FROM FRIDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH WEAK
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TRIED TO DIG OVER THE INTERIOR PACNW
MONDAY BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY ALONG THE COAST WITH SUNDAY ON TRACK FOR
INLAND AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON TAP UNLESS THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOWS END UP PUSHING FURTHER WEST AS A RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER AND PUSHING EVEN FURTHER NORTH. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY BEHIND WEAK
FRONT. STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG COAST...BUT LIFT FROM IFR THIS
AM TO LOW MVFR BY 19Z. INLAND REMAINS MOSTLY VFR UNDER VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF LOW MVFR CIGS THAT
WILL SPREAD INTO SW WASH AND ALONG COLUMBIA RIVER TO KPDX/KTTD
BETWEEN 12Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LOW
MVFR CIGS PUSHING UP COLUMBIA RIVER WILL SPREAD INTO CLARK COUNTY
BY 13Z...THEN SPREADING S AND E AS FAR S AS KUAO. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 TO 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT AT TIMES. NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS WEEK AS OVERALL PATTERN OF
HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL PERSISTS.

W TO NW SWELL WILL RUN AT 6 TO 7 FT WITH PERIODS NEAR 7 SEC TODAY
THIS WILL CREATE STEEP WAVES...MAINLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL PUT
UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP SEAS ON THE WATERS FROM 10 TO 6O
MILES OFFSHORE. SEAS RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY ON THE OUTER
     WATERS...OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FROM 10 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 190322
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
819 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MORNING
CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.UPDATE...A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. A COUPLE
DIFFERENT UPDRAFTS WENT UP HIGH ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE A
BRIEF SHOWER NEAR MT HOOD AND MT JEFFERSON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE THREE SISTERS WERE A LITTLE MORE LONG
LIVED...BUT EVEN THEN FADED FAIRLY QUICKLY. WITH THE MAIN MID LEVEL
THETAE AXIS CENTERED PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON...ANY NOCTURNAL
ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CLIPS OUR AREA TUESDAY...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE...BRINGING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A LARGE MASS OF MARINE CLOUDS CURRENTLY REMAINS
WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN ADDITIONAL RIBBON OF MARINE CLOUDS HANGING
ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CURRENT LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
THESE CLOUDS EXPANDING AND PUSHING INTO OUR COASTAL ZONES
OVERNIGHT....BRINGING A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE TO THE COAST BY MORNING.
THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER
VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA AROUND DAYBREAK AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...PLACING THE REGION IN BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PERIODICALLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA...GENERALLY FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED TO BRING FEW...IF ANY...NOTABLE IMPACTS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF MORNING CLOUDS...AFTERNOON SUN...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH SEVERAL WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING CLOUD COVER AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY LOWER LEVELS
DECREASE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND...SO
LOWERED POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES DUE TO GFS AND
ECMWF 1000-500-HPA (MB) RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOWING VALUES BELOW 60
PERCENT UNTIL SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR A
SLIVER OF MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RESULTING
IN IFR IN VCNTY OF KONP. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD PUSH FURTHER
INLAND...WITH MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER LIKELY REACHING
KPDX AND KTTD EARLY TUE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
COAST TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE FROM THE
COAST UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER LATE TONIGHT AND LIKELY REACH KPDX
AROUND 13Z TUESDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...BUOY #89 HAS BEEN REPORTING GUSTS AROUND 23 KT THIS
EVENING AND SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS BEYOND 40 NM FROM THE SHORE THIS EVENING. THESE GUSTS ARE
NOT WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY SO HAVE
LET IT EXPIRE AT 8 PM. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STEEP RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET WITH PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS WILL FLIRT WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DUE TO SQUARE SEAS. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 190322
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
819 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MORNING
CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.UPDATE...A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. A COUPLE
DIFFERENT UPDRAFTS WENT UP HIGH ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE A
BRIEF SHOWER NEAR MT HOOD AND MT JEFFERSON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE THREE SISTERS WERE A LITTLE MORE LONG
LIVED...BUT EVEN THEN FADED FAIRLY QUICKLY. WITH THE MAIN MID LEVEL
THETAE AXIS CENTERED PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON...ANY NOCTURNAL
ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CLIPS OUR AREA TUESDAY...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE...BRINGING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A LARGE MASS OF MARINE CLOUDS CURRENTLY REMAINS
WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN ADDITIONAL RIBBON OF MARINE CLOUDS HANGING
ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CURRENT LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
THESE CLOUDS EXPANDING AND PUSHING INTO OUR COASTAL ZONES
OVERNIGHT....BRINGING A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE TO THE COAST BY MORNING.
THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER
VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA AROUND DAYBREAK AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...PLACING THE REGION IN BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PERIODICALLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA...GENERALLY FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED TO BRING FEW...IF ANY...NOTABLE IMPACTS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF MORNING CLOUDS...AFTERNOON SUN...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH SEVERAL WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING CLOUD COVER AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY LOWER LEVELS
DECREASE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND...SO
LOWERED POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES DUE TO GFS AND
ECMWF 1000-500-HPA (MB) RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOWING VALUES BELOW 60
PERCENT UNTIL SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR A
SLIVER OF MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RESULTING
IN IFR IN VCNTY OF KONP. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD PUSH FURTHER
INLAND...WITH MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER LIKELY REACHING
KPDX AND KTTD EARLY TUE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
COAST TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE FROM THE
COAST UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER LATE TONIGHT AND LIKELY REACH KPDX
AROUND 13Z TUESDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...BUOY #89 HAS BEEN REPORTING GUSTS AROUND 23 KT THIS
EVENING AND SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS BEYOND 40 NM FROM THE SHORE THIS EVENING. THESE GUSTS ARE
NOT WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY SO HAVE
LET IT EXPIRE AT 8 PM. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STEEP RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET WITH PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS WILL FLIRT WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DUE TO SQUARE SEAS. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




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