000
FXUS66 KPQR 212137
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC NW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING A COOL SHOWERY WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...EARLY TUE AFTERNOON SATELLITE SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING ONTO THE COAST. WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED THE UPPER
LOW WITH TWO MAIN VORTICTY MAXIMA...ONE ROTATING INLAND OVER SW
OREGON AND THE SECOND DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW NEAR 46N
131W. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LOW IS TO REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
CAUSING A DUMBELL EFFECT. INITIALLY THIS SHOULD FAVOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THU AS THE LARGE AREAS OF SHOWERS SEEN
OFFSHORE MOVE INLAND WITH WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. PROBABLY DUE TO A
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER...BUFR SOUNDINGS TENDING TO NOT LOOK UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO CARRY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MENTION SMALL
HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
WILL TREND TOWARDS LOWER POPS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS MODELS
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIER AIR WORKING IN UNDER THE LOW AS THE
MAIN LOW CENTER ROTATES UP THROUGH NORTHERN WA. WHILE THE DETAILS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT...WILL SHOW A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AGAIN FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BACK AROUND THROUGH
OREGON. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT THEIR COOLEST WED WITH A DEEP
CLOUD LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND WEST COAST. THE UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...KEEPING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
MIXED WITH SPORADIC SUN BREAKS IN THE FORECAST.
SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE CASCADE PASS LEVEL AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP
CLOSER TO NORMAL TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KWELSON
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF STEADY RAIN
SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD TURN MORE SHOWERY THIS
EVENING AND BECOME GENERALLY VFR WITH ONLY AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF DIP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
DOWN THE COAST SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STEADIER BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVES INTO
THE AREA. CONDITIONS LOOK TO TREND MORE TOWARDS MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT...MAINLY TIED TO SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY SOME
DISTINCT LULLS IN THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN SHOWERS AND NORTH
OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT TIMING THESE DETAILS REMAINS UNCERTAIN
ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH THE HEADLINES.
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MORE BENIGN WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY HOVER IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT WED
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 211527
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
827 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NW OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LOWERING SNOW LEVELS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT FURTHER INLAND FRIDAY...AND THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WITH COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FILTER IN TODAY.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
INLAND TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS TOWARDS NW OREGON...
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER
AND AIR MASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE...EXPECT TO SEE SMALL HAIL
DEVELOP WITH THE SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO WED.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AND DOWN TO AROUND
3000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS DUE TO PRECEDING WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES BUT MELTING SNOW MAY
STILL RESULT IN SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS AND THOSE TRAVELING OVER THE
CASCADES SHOULD PREPARE FOR WINTER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE LATE SEASON SNOW WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
HIKERS...CLIMBERS...AND CAMPERS. TH
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE AROUND A PROMINENT CLOSED LOW THAT WILL
STUBBORNLY LINGER ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS MIXED WITH SPORADIC SUN BREAKS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM...SNOW
LEVELS RISE ABOVE CASCADE PASS LEVEL AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER
TO NORMAL. WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /27
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND TOWARD VFR THIS MORNING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL HAIL IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW
CLAPS OF THUNDER...PRIMARILY TOWARDS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE UNDERNEATH A PASSING SHOWER.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO TREND
TOWARDS VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF MVFR CIG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...BRINGING INCREASING
NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MORE BENIGN WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND HIGHER
SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS.
EXPECT SEAS TO RISE ABOVE 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THEY WILL
LIKELY HOVER AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 211008
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
308 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT IS SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN LOWERING SNOW LEVELS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW
REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT FURTHER
INLAND FRIDAY...AND THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...COOL AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE UPPER LOW IS
NEAR 52N 132W EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...AROUND 200 MILES OFFSHORE OF NEW PORT OREGON. A FRONT IS
QUICKLY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING SPREADING RAIN ACROSS
WA AND OR.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER NW OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING WITH IT A POCKET OF VERY COLD AIR...-22F AT
500 MB. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...AND THE RAIN WILL TURN TO CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL.. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPROUT UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS NO CAP TO
RESTRICT VERTICAL LIFT. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD SENSE OF WHERE THE LIKELIEST LOCATION
FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE BUT THINK THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MAY BE A
MORE LIKELY TARGET THAN THE COAST...BUT ADDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AND DOWN TO AROUND
3000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS DUE TO PRECEDING WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES BUT MELTING SNOW MAY
STILL RESULT IN SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS AND THOSE TRAVELING OVER THE
CASCADES SHOULD PREPARE FOR WINTER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE LATE SEASON SNOW WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
HIKERS...CLIMBERS...AND CAMPERS. TH
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE AROUND A PROMINENT CLOSED LOW THAT WILL
STUBBORNLY LINGER ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS MIXED WITH SPORADIC SUN BREAKS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM...SNOW
LEVELS RISE ABOVE CASCADE PASS LEVEL AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER
TO NORMAL. WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /27
&&
.AVIATION...AN ELEVATED FRONT IS SPREADING LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ALONG WITH
CONTINUED PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE CASCADES BY
DAYBREAK AND DISSIPATE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE REGION...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TODAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND TOWARD VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
FLOW TURNS NWLY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
PYLE
&&
.MARINE...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...BRINGING
INCREASING NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM JUST AFTER DAYBREAK
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SMALL
HAIL AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED
OVER THE PAC NW. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MORE BENIGN WEATHER LATE
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
AND HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY
INCREASING QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
THE GUSTY NW WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY
BE NECESSARY LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WED AS FRESH CHOPPY SWELL
PUSHES SEAS INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 4 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 210412
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
904 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BIG CHANGE TO COOL AND WET WEATHER IS COMING IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DOWN FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE LOW
WILL SET UP CAMP OVER THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
LOW WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK BUT REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...KLGX RADAR SHOWS THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
CROSSING THE COASTLINE AND PUSHING INLAND...BUT THIS PRECIPITATION IS
ALOFT AS IT OVERRIDES DRYER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. HEAVIER RAIN IS
SEEN OFFSHORE APPROACHING THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
FRONT. EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN ON THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
COAST AROUND 1000PM. MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY AND ON THE IR IMAGERY.
THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE WELL AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING OCCLUSION
APPROACHING OUR COASTLINE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH. RAIN FROM THE OCCLUDED
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 5 AM JUST IN TIME
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH THE OCCLUDED UPPER FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 9AM IN THE NORTH AND
AROUND NOON IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS KEEPING MOST OF THE SUN OUT
AND THAT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO MOSTLY THE SMALL HAIL
PRODUCING TYPE...RATHER THAN A SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DAY. COULD
BE MORE SURFACE HEATING ON WEDNESDAY AND WE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER
ADDING SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY DURING THE DAY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND DROP IN THE MOUNTAINS AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER
LOW. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE DROPPING BELOW PASS
LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING AS LOW AS 2800 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARM WHICH WILL LIMIT
STICKING SNOW ON ROADS TO THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND HIGHER PASSES.
HOWEVER...THIS LATE SEASON SNOW IS A THREAT TO CAMPERS...HIKERS AND
CLIMBERS AND PEOPLE TRAVELING TO THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
WINTER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE AROUND A PROMINENT CLOSED LOW THAT WILL
STUBBORNLY LINGER ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS MIXED WITH SPORADIC SUN BREAKS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM...SNOW
LEVELS RISE ABOVE CASCADE PASS LEVEL AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER
TO NORMAL. WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /27
&&
.AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW
TUESDAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN REACHING
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND INLAND TAF SITES 10Z-13Z TUE.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY START BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BUT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NWLY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY ARRIVING WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS 15Z TUESDAY
THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR AFTER 21Z TUE.
&&
.MARINE...EARLIER UPDATE TO END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THIS
EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS GRADIENT WAS NOT QUITE
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ADVISORY WINDS. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING NORTHERLY
WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE
INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AS WE
ENTER A SHOWERY UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN AND
CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW.
HOWEVER IN THE SHORT TERM IT APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ON TUE AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN
WINDS WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND SO
EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY.
SEAS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY
INCREASING QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FLIRT WITH THE 10 FT MARK. /NEUMAN/26
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BIG CHANGE TO COOL AND WET WEATHER IS COMING IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING DOWN FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUE. THE LOW
WILL SET UP CAMP OVER THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE WEEKEND...BUT AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MODELS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AND IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE IMPENDING BIG CHANGES TO THE WEATHER. AXIS OF THE
STILL DIGGING TROUGH IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES NEAR 135W.
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO CLEARLY VISIBLE IN VISIBLE PICTURES NEAR 45N
134W...NEAR MODEL ESTIMATED POSITIONS. THE TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED
TO GET A PUSH E TONIGHT AS A VORT MAX DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW TODAY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...RAIN
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST THIS EVENING...THEN SHOULD SPREAD
INLAND LATE TONIGHT. WITH MOISTURE FROM A PLUME SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM NEAR THE HAWIIAN ISLANDS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM...MOISTURE APPEARS IN GOOD SUPPLY FOR THE LOW AS IT MOVES IN
AND LINGERS OVER THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL POPS
WILL BE HIGH NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH BY THU THERE IS A LITTLE LESS
CERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER...SO WILL LIMIT POPS THEN TO
LIKELY CATEGORY.
TEMPS AND SNOW LEVELS WILL TAKE A DIVE WITH THIS UPPER LOW AS IT
ORIGINATES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW CASCADE PASSES BY TUE NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS TEMPS ALL
SUGGEST DAYTIME HIGHS COULD APPROACH RECORD COOLEST HIGHS FOR TUE
AND WED. THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FORCES CONSIDERATION OF THUNDER...BUT BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVELS LIKELY TOO COOL TO SUPPORT DEEP ENOUGH CONVECTION. WILL
HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE AROUND A PROMINENT CLOSED LOW THAT WILL
STUBBORNLY LINGER ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS MIXED WITH SPORADIC SUN BREAKS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM...SNOW
LEVELS RISE ABOVE CASCADE PASS LEVEL AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER
TO NORMAL. WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /27
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL LIKELY START
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z TUESDAY. HEDGED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A SLOWER
ARRIVAL BASED ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET PATTERN.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY ARRIVING WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TOWARDS 15Z TUESDAY. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE A
FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BUT OVERALL THIS APPEARS
TO BE VERY MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT EVENT.
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT POSSIBLE AS WE ENTER A SHOWERY UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON THE
POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE WIND FORECAST. EITHER WAY...THERE MAY BE AN
UPTICK IN WINDS WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
LOW. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND SO EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY.
SEAS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY
INCREASING QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FLIRT WITH THE 10 FT MARK. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 201547
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...MILD LATE SPRING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY EFORE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS A DRASTIC CHANGE IN WEATHER. THIS LOW WILL
BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...SMALL HAIL AND SNOW BELOW THE CASCADE PASS. SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY
MOVES INLAND. ANOTHER LOW...THIS ONE WEAKER AND DRIER...IS EXPECTED
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED THE REGION UNDER A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE...WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH OFFSHORE NEARING 135W.
VISIBLE PICTURES SHOWED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MARINE LAYER STILL
EXPANDING IN THE WILLIAMETTE VALLEY. KSLE SOUNDING AND OBSERVED
BASES SUGGEST CLOUD LAYER LESS THAN 1K FT THICK...SO STILL EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BY LATE MORNING. WITH A CLOUDY START EXPECTED
INMUCH OF THE VALLEY...WILL BACK OFF ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM. CYCLOGENESIS IS OBSERVABLE
WELL OFFSHORE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAROCLINIC LEAF AROUND
500 MILES OFFSHORE AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR 46N 137W. THIS STORM WILL BRING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN WEATHER
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.
MODELS ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH SATELLITE DATA AND HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING OF WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE AREA. THE MODELS NOW SHOW
RAIN REACHING THE COASTAL REGIONS LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 10 PM.
SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW A LAYER OF DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME BEFORE ACCUMULATING RAIN WILL BE
OBSERVED AND EXPECT THE RAIN TO TO ACTUALLY REACH THE COAST CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR 8000 FEET AHEAD OF THE LOW TUE
MORNING...THEN DROP STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME
LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY THAN WHAT THEY WILL BE TODAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER DOWNTO NEAR 3000 FEET BY LATE TUE EVENING. THE
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN WEDNESDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK.
WITH SUCH A COLD AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS...ALONG WITH LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE CASCADE CREST...AND HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IMPACTING IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN SURGES WITH SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND THERE
WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATE OUT AND SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY BE LESS FREQUENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THE
COLDEST AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE. THE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE
CASCADE PASS LEVEL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD PUSH NE OF THE
CASCADE CREST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER QUICKER MOVING UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HINT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND THAT THERE WILL
BE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUD BREAKS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. TH
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CIGS CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE AND COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEYS SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR
AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS
SPREAD INLAND AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN VFR
AROUND 18Z TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE LOW
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY. EITHER
WAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT STRONGER GUSTY
30 KT WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WATERS TRANSITION
INTO A SHOWERY AIRMASS.
SEAS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY BEFORE
SEAS INCREASE QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS LOOK TO
FLIRT WITH THE 10 FT MARK TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 200959
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
259 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...MILD LATE SPRING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS A DRASTIC CHANGE IN WEATHER. THIS
LOW WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS...SMALL HAIL AND SNOW BELOW THE CASCADE PASS.
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. ANOTHER LOW YET WEAKER AND DRIER IS EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF STRATUS OVER SW
WASHINGTON...EXTREME NW OREGON. THERE IS ALSO A PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES NEAR MOUNT HOOD. THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF
THE DAY AND THE INLAND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMAL. THE COASTAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL BUT
CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMS. EXPECT 70S FOR THE INTERIOR AND LOWER
60S FOR THE COAST.
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM. CYCLOGENESIS IS OBSERVABLE
WELL OFFSHORE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAROCLINIC LEAF AROUND
500 MILES OFFSHORE AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR 46N 137W. THIS STORM WILL BRING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN WEATHER
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.
MODELS ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH SATELLITE DATA AND HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING OF WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE AREA. THE MODELS NOW SHOW
RAIN REACHING THE COASTAL REGIONS LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 10 PM.
SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW A LAYER OF DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME BEFORE ACCUMULATING RAIN WILL BE
OBSERVED AND EXPECT THE RAIN TO TO ACTUALLY REACH THE COAST CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR 8000 FEET AHEAD OF THE LOW TUE
MORNING...THEN DROP STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME
LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY THAN WHAT THEY WILL BE TODAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER DOWNTO NEAR 3000 FEET BY LATE TUE EVENING. THE
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN WEDNESDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK.
WITH SUCH A COLD AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS...ALONG WITH LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE CASCADE CREST...AND HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IMPACTING IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN SURGES WITH SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND THERE
WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATE OUT AND SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY BE LESS FREQUENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THE
COLDEST AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE. THE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE CASCADE
PASS LEVEL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD PUSH NE OF THE CASCADE
CREST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER QUICKER MOVING UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS HINT THAT
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND THAT THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUD BREAKS AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TH
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY
ALLOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY FORM ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER NORTH OF
KPDX AND IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH 17Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY
WITH N TO NW WINDS. THE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HOLD THROUGH TODAY...ALLOWING GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM CAPE
FOULWEATHER SOUTH. A FEW GUSTS 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS...BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA.
SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH TUE...THOUGH MAY GET BIT CHOPPY
WITH BRISK NW WINDS AT TIMES...MAINLY S OF CASCADE HEAD.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A LARGE AREA OF 10 TO 13 FT SWELL
ARRIVING BY MID WEEK. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SOLUTION FOR A FEW RUNS NOW
SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 200338
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
837 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...MILD LATE SPRING WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MON. THEN BIG
CHANGES AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH
THEN END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...ONSHORE FLOW TURNING A BIT MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.
THIS ALLOWING FOR LARGE AREAS OF CLEARING. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT
AS WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
VERY PLEASANT DAY ON MON...AS HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION BUILDS. AIR
MASS WARMS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT
5 TO 8 DEG C ABOVE THOSE ON SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THIS
PUTS MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR INTERIOR...BUT
STAYING COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWER 60S.
ALL EYES STARTING SHIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER MON AND MON NIGHT...AS
A DEVELOPING LOW THAT IS NOW NEAR 140W AND 47N WILL DRAW CLOSER.
PLENTY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
PAC NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN OREGON TUE
MORNING...WITH DRAMATICALLY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR 8000 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE
MORNING...BUT DROP STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DOWN TO
NEAR 3000 FEET BY LATE TUE EVENING.
WITH SUCH A COLD AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS...ALONG WITH LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL COME WITH SMALL HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. SOME MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WED MAY AID THE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT AGAIN THIS DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THESE EXACTLY THESE ELEMENTS WILL MIX.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...A LINGERING CLOSED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE AREA SHOWERY AND COOL THROUGH THE
WEEK. WITH THE COLD NATURE OF THE LOW...EXPECT SNOW DOWN TO PASS
LEVEL IN THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT....WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING
ABOVE THE PASSES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME SUNDAY LOOKS DRY BUT
CLOUDY...WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES EMERGING IN REGARD TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. BURGESS
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5 K WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW A PATCHY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. TODD
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT
WITH N TO NW WINDS. THE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HOLD THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM CAPE
FOULWEATHER SOUTH. A FEW GUSTS 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS...BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA. SEAS
HOLDING AT 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH TUE...THOUGH MAY GET BIT CHOPPY WITH
BRISK NW WINDS AT TIMES...MAINLY S OF CASCADE HEAD.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A LARGE AREA OF 10 TO 13 FT SWELL
ARRIVING BY MID WEEK. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SOLUTION FOR A FEW RUNS NOW
SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING. TODD
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 192222
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
321 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OREGON THIS EVENING...
CAUSING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE AREA MONDAY...LEADING TO A SUNNY
AND WARM DAY. HIGH CLOUDS FROM OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY LEADING TO SOME RAIN BY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL COME WITH A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
SNOW LEVELS...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
CLEAR FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS FLOW HAS REMAINED
RATHER LIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PERSISTENT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE REGION SO EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO EVENTUALLY
TAKE OVER FOR CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
DOMINANT. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE WARMING UP A BIT...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS UP FROM +4 DEG C TODAY TO AROUND +10 DEG C MON AFTERNOON PER
THE 12Z ECMWF. WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. FLOW WILL STILL BE ONSHORE
SO THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS NOT STRAYING TOO FAR FROM 60
DEGREES.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM ALASKA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER TUE/WED THAN
THEY DID MONDAY. WITH THE COLDER AIR MASS...SNOW LEVEL WILL DROP
BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN AS
LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT BY TUE NIGHT AND WED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPS TUE/WED MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SET NEW
RECORD LOW MAXES...FOR PDX THIS WOULD BE 52 ON TUE AND 55 WED. OUR
FORECAST OF 54 DEGREES AT PDX WED WOULD ACHIEVE A RECORD.
WITH SUCH A COLD AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...
ALONG WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...IT IS LIKELY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
COME WITH SMALL HAIL. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. SOME MODEST
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WEDNESDAY MAY AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT
AGAIN THIS DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
THESE EXACTLY THESE ELEMENTS WILL COME TOGETHER. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...A LINGERING CLOSED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE AREA SHOWERY AND COOL THROUGH THE
WEEK. WITH THE COLD NATURE OF THE LOW...EXPECT SNOW DOWN TO PASS
LEVEL IN THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT....WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING
ABOVE THE PASSES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME SUNDAY LOOKS DRY BUT
CLOUDY...WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES EMERGING IN REGARD TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. BURGESS
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. CEILINGS AROUND 5K FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING... GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG MAY ATTEMPT TO FILL BACK IN AT SITES THAT SAW
SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...SUCH AS KSLE IN PARTICULAR. /27
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BKN
CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...WITH
N TO NW WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
OREGON COASTAL WATERS IS STAYING STRONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN THROUGH MONDAY... ALLOWING GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM NEWPORT
SOUTH. A FEW GUSTS 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS...BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA. SEAS HOLDING
AT 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH TUE...THOUGH MAY GET BIT CHOPPY WITH BRISK NW
WINDS AT TIMES...MAINLY S OF CASCADE HEAD.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE FETCH OF 10 TO 15 FT SWELL ARRIVING
BY MID WEEK. SINCE SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING SOME HIGH SWELL BY WED AND THU...WENT AHEAD AND UPPED
SEAS CLOSER TO THE 10 TO 11 FT RANGE. WOULD LIKE A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS TO DECIDE ON FORECASTING ANY HIGHER SWELL THOUGH.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 191615
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
914 AM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MORE
SUNBREAKS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRONGEST OVER
THE AREA MONDAY...LEADING TO A SUNNY AND WARM DAY. HIGH CLOUDS FROM
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
EVENTUALLY LEADING TO SOME RAIN BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL COME
WITH A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS...WITH COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
IMAGERY STILL INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING THE FORECAST AREA...
MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME
CLEARING OVER THE TUALATIN VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE AS WELL. THIS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND
DOWNSLOPING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE COAST RANGE. THIS OVERALL PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN CLOUD
COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH THE WEST HALF OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY BEING THE SUNNIEST. WITH THE
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE TEMPS SHOULD COME CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE MORNING FCST WAS TO HANG ON TO THE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN A LITTLE LONGER...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. REMAINDER OF SHORT/LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS
FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND STILL VALID... WEAGLE
MONDAY WILL BE THE SUNNIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. MODELED 850MB TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS
LOW WILL RETURN RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
CASCADE PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL. QPF AND CORRESPONDINGLY SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST FOR THESE TYPE OF LOANS.
CURRENTLY MODELS SUGGEST THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TEND TO PRODUCE MORE THAN EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION. FORECASTING WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ADDS ANOTHER
CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR NON-ADVISORY
SNOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS CHANGES AS WE HAVE MORE
CONSISTENT MODEL DATA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. EXPECT A
MORE DIURNAL TREND OF THE SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LESS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SUN BREAKS IN THE MORNINGS WITH SHOWER
ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMAL. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING. DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF THIS LOW...GENERAL LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONTINUE SHOWERY AND
COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...MOIST AIR MASS MAINTAINS MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP CLOSER TO 19Z...WITH
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOLID VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
MON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTS THROUGH 19Z/20Z THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
/27
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH N TO NW WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS PRES GRADIENTS TIGHTEN THROUGH MON...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT S
OF NEWPORT IN AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS FOR SUCH WINDS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON EVENING. WINDS WEAKER TO THE N...BUT
COULD GET A BIT GUSTY ON MON.
SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH TUE...THOUGH MAY GET BIT CHOPPY
WITH BRISK NW WINDS AT TIMES...MAINLY S OF CASCADE HEAD.
QUESTIONABLE WEATHER FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
LARGE FETCH OF 10 TO 15 FT SWELL ARRIVING BY WED AND THU. THIS IS
DUE TO MODELS SPINNING UP ANOTHER RATHER TIGHT LOW PRES OFF THE
OREGON COAST ON TUE AND WED. NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL PAN OUT AS
MODELS SUGGEST...SO WILL TREND CLOSER TO 10 FT AND WAIT FOR FURTHER
CONSISTENCY IN MODEL DATA BEFORE BITING.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
MONDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 190947
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 AM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. MORE
SUNBREAKS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL
BE SUNNY AND WARM. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL
BRING A DRAMATIC CHANGE BACK TO CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NW OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUNRISE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES AFTER SUNRISE...THEN
DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
MORE SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S.
MONDAY WILL BE THE SUNNIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. MODELED 850MB TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS
LOW WILL RETURN RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
CASCADE PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL. QPF AND CORRESPONDINGLY SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST FOR THESE TYPE OF LOANS.
CURRENTLY MODELS SUGGEST THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TEND TO PRODUCE MORE THAN EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION. FORECASTING WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ADDS ANOTHER
CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR NON-ADVISORY
SNOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS CHANGES AS WE HAVE MORE
CONSISTENT MODEL DATA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. EXPECT A
MORE DIURNAL TREND OF THE SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LESS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SUN BREAKS IN THE MORNINGS WITH SHOWER
ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMAL. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING. DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF THIS LOW...GENERAL LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONTINUE SHOWERY AND
COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...RATHER MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN GRADUALLY BREAKUP OF CLOUDS AFTER 18Z AS
FLOW TURNS MORE N TO NWLY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FORM BY 12Z...AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 19Z TO 20Z SUN. WILL MAINTAIN
THIS TREND IN THE 12Z TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND
SUN...WITH N TO NW WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS PRES
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN SUN AND MON...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT S OF
NEWPORT IN AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS FOR SUCH WINDS FROM SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON EVENING. WINDS WEAKER TO THE N...BUT COULD
GET A BIT GUSTY ON MON.
SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH TUE...THOUGH MAY GET BIT CHOPPY
WITH BRISK NW WINDS AT TIMES...MAINLY S OF CASCADE HEAD.
QUESTIONABLE WEATHER FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
LARGE FETCH OF 10 TO 15 FT SWELL ARRIVING BY WED AND THU. THIS IS
DUE TO MODELS SPINNING UP ANOTHER RATHER TIGHT LOW PRES OFF THE
OREGON COAST ON TUE AND WED. NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL PAN OUT AS
MODELS SUGGEST...SO WILL TREND CLOSER TO 10 FT AND WAIT FOR FURTHER
CONSISTENCY IN MODEL DATA BEFORE BITING.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
MONDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPQR 190319
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
819 PM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MORE
SUNBREAKS SUNDAY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY
WILL BE A PLEASANT...SUNNY AND WARM DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING A DRAMATIC CHANGE BACK TO CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH ASHORE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DECREASING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. ON
SUNDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
CASCADES AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WARM AIR
ALOFT MOVES AND STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SUNNIEST AND WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ON TUES THAT WILL
LAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW WILL
SINK SOUTHEAST INTO WA/OR SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO THE CASCADE PASSES TUE NIGHT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE CASCADES AS EARLY AS
TUE NIGHT. TW
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE COLD
NATURE OF THE LOW...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW DOWN TO PASS LEVEL LIKELY IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON WHERE THE LOW WILL
PROPAGATE...HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND WILL REMAIN...WITH SHOWERY AND
COOL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BURGESS
&&
.AVIATION...RATHER MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS. LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL END OVERNIGHT. IF GET ANY CLEARING...WINDS ARE LIGHT
SO MAY SEE PATCHY FOG S OF KSLE AND ALONG COAST...BUT AT MOMENT
FEEL ONSHORE FLOW JUST ENOUGH THAT CLOUDS WILL REFORM ACROSS THE
REGION. LIKELY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUN AM...THEN GRADUALLY BREAKUP OF CLOUDS AFTER 18Z AS FLOW TURNS
MORE N TO NWLY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SUSPECT WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
FORM AFTER 08Z...AND PERSIST INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CIGS WOULD BREAK UP WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 19Z TO 20Z SUN.
WILL MAINTAIN THIS TREND IN THE 06Z TAFS.ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...WEAKENING FRONT NOW JUST INLAND. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE
PAC WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH N TO NW WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON SUN AND MON...
WITH WINDS GUSTY TO 25 KT S OF NEWPORT IN AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. WILL
HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS FOR
SUCH WINDS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON EVENING. WINDS WEAKER TO
THE N...BUT COULD GET BIT GUSTY ON MON.
SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...THOUGH MAY GET BIT
CHOPPY WITH BRISK NW WINDS AT TIMES...MAINLY S OF CASCADE HEAD.
QUESTIONABLE WEATHER FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
LARGE FETCH OF 10 TO 15 FT SWELL ARRIVING BY WED AND THU. THIS IS
DUE TO MODELS SPINNING UP ANOTHER RATHER TIGHT LOW PRES OFF THE
OREGON COAST ON TUE AND WED. NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL PAN OUT AS
MODELS SUGGEST...SO WILL TREND CLOSER TO 10 AS WANT TO SEE FURTHER
CONSISTENCY IN MODEL DATA BEFORE BITING. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
MON EVENING ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS...OR FROM
CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE AND OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
| 
