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000
FXUS66 KPQR 270343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
742 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. A
VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...
BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND IN THE NORTH TUESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IS PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY. DO NOT THINK THE FOG WILL BE LAST AS LONG AS
LONG INTO THE DAY AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEMMOVING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN...OR MORE LIKELY
DRIZZLE FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN COAST THIS EVENING AND PROVIDED
ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MIXING TO HINDER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SUSPECT THAT FOG WILL EVENTUALLY
WORSEN IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK THE ANY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
OR PORTLAND METRO AREA WILL BE WIDESPREAD. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOG HAS MOSTLY
CLEARED IN CLARK AND MULTNOMAH COUNTIES AND TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL. THE LOW CLOUDS AND REMAINING
PATCHY FOG ARE HANGING TOUGH IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NORTH INTO THE
TUALATIN VALLEY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE EROSION OF THE
CENTRAL MASS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BUT IT WILL PROBABLY NOT CLEAR
BEFORE AGAIN EXPANDING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING OR FLATTENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT...WEAKENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
ALOFT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MIX THE FOG VERTICALLY. THUS EXPECT MORE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND REDEVELOP TONIGHT.

THERE IS A FRONTAL ZONE OUT NEAR 130W THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND CLOSE TO THE COAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT APPROACHES. IT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE NEAR THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY THE BANK OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST THAT
HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO GRAYS HARBOR. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO REACH ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL SLOWLY EASE INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TUESDAY...THEN HANG UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY DRYING OUT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME
DRIZZLY PERIODS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...BUT EXPECT
IT TO PROBABLY STAY DRY IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY LIFT THE FOG A BIT AND MAKE IT A BIT
PATCHIER IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
SOUTH VALLEY WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE FOG THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE IS STILL A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THAT MAY KEEP THE INVERSION FROM GETTING
TOO STRONG YET AND AFFECTING THE AMOUNT OF FOG A BIT. THIS ALSO
RESTRICTS HOW STRONGLY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INITIALLY REBUILD. BUT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
LITTLE WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT IF
THIS DEVELOPS...MIGHT GIVE US SOME SUN BREAKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FCST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NE PAC WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW STARTING THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE FRI AND SAT.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
THE RIDGE WILL ALSO CREATE ANOTHER LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE AGAIN COOL AND MOSTLY SOCKED IN
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COAST HAVE MORE
SUN AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE ONE SEEN THIS PAST WEEKEND...SO A REPEAT OF
THE RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES THAT MANY LOCATIONS SAW OVER THE
WEEKEND IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME
AS THE FCST MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
A WARM FRONT ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAVE
HELD OFF WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR DENSE FOG OVER THE KPDX-
KVUO METRO AREAS...WHILE LIFR FOG HAS RETURNED ELSEWHERE IN THE
VALLEY. AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS MAY MIX A BIT ALLOWING THE FOG LIFT IN AND OUT OF LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL LIKELY KEEP
AREAS WEST OF THE GORGE MORE MIXED AS WELL...WITH MVFR/IFR SHALLOW
STRATUS/FOG MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MVFR
STRATUS AROUND 1200-1500 FT...LOWERING TO 500 FT AFTER 10Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PERSISTENT EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IFR AND POSSIBLY OCCASIONAL LIFR FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE WINDS DROP OFF...ESPECIALLY BTWN 09Z-14Z TONIGHT.
A WEAK FRONT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER MIXED OVERNIGHT...THEN
EXPECT INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFTER 12Z TUE. EXPECT HIGH MVFR TO
VFR CIGS AFT 19Z TUE. /27

&&

.MARINE...S WINDS HAVE EASED THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15
KT. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOLD AROUND 9 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN AT THIS LEVEL TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE WATERS AND STALL OUT AS IT
WEAKENS ON TUE INTO WED BRINGING A WIND SHIFT BUT WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS FOR THU AND FRI...AND PERHAPS
INTO SAT. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11
     PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
742 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. A
VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...
BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND IN THE NORTH TUESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IS PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY. DO NOT THINK THE FOG WILL BE LAST AS LONG AS
LONG INTO THE DAY AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEMMOVING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN...OR MORE LIKELY
DRIZZLE FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN COAST THIS EVENING AND PROVIDED
ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MIXING TO HINDER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SUSPECT THAT FOG WILL EVENTUALLY
WORSEN IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK THE ANY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
OR PORTLAND METRO AREA WILL BE WIDESPREAD. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOG HAS MOSTLY
CLEARED IN CLARK AND MULTNOMAH COUNTIES AND TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL. THE LOW CLOUDS AND REMAINING
PATCHY FOG ARE HANGING TOUGH IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NORTH INTO THE
TUALATIN VALLEY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE EROSION OF THE
CENTRAL MASS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BUT IT WILL PROBABLY NOT CLEAR
BEFORE AGAIN EXPANDING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING OR FLATTENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT...WEAKENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
ALOFT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MIX THE FOG VERTICALLY. THUS EXPECT MORE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND REDEVELOP TONIGHT.

THERE IS A FRONTAL ZONE OUT NEAR 130W THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND CLOSE TO THE COAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT APPROACHES. IT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE NEAR THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY THE BANK OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST THAT
HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO GRAYS HARBOR. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO REACH ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL SLOWLY EASE INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TUESDAY...THEN HANG UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY DRYING OUT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME
DRIZZLY PERIODS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...BUT EXPECT
IT TO PROBABLY STAY DRY IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY LIFT THE FOG A BIT AND MAKE IT A BIT
PATCHIER IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
SOUTH VALLEY WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE FOG THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE IS STILL A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THAT MAY KEEP THE INVERSION FROM GETTING
TOO STRONG YET AND AFFECTING THE AMOUNT OF FOG A BIT. THIS ALSO
RESTRICTS HOW STRONGLY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INITIALLY REBUILD. BUT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
LITTLE WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT IF
THIS DEVELOPS...MIGHT GIVE US SOME SUN BREAKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FCST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NE PAC WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW STARTING THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE FRI AND SAT.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
THE RIDGE WILL ALSO CREATE ANOTHER LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE AGAIN COOL AND MOSTLY SOCKED IN
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COAST HAVE MORE
SUN AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE ONE SEEN THIS PAST WEEKEND...SO A REPEAT OF
THE RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES THAT MANY LOCATIONS SAW OVER THE
WEEKEND IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME
AS THE FCST MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
A WARM FRONT ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAVE
HELD OFF WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR DENSE FOG OVER THE KPDX-
KVUO METRO AREAS...WHILE LIFR FOG HAS RETURNED ELSEWHERE IN THE
VALLEY. AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS MAY MIX A BIT ALLOWING THE FOG LIFT IN AND OUT OF LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL LIKELY KEEP
AREAS WEST OF THE GORGE MORE MIXED AS WELL...WITH MVFR/IFR SHALLOW
STRATUS/FOG MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MVFR
STRATUS AROUND 1200-1500 FT...LOWERING TO 500 FT AFTER 10Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PERSISTENT EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IFR AND POSSIBLY OCCASIONAL LIFR FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE WINDS DROP OFF...ESPECIALLY BTWN 09Z-14Z TONIGHT.
A WEAK FRONT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER MIXED OVERNIGHT...THEN
EXPECT INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFTER 12Z TUE. EXPECT HIGH MVFR TO
VFR CIGS AFT 19Z TUE. /27

&&

.MARINE...S WINDS HAVE EASED THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15
KT. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOLD AROUND 9 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN AT THIS LEVEL TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE WATERS AND STALL OUT AS IT
WEAKENS ON TUE INTO WED BRINGING A WIND SHIFT BUT WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS FOR THU AND FRI...AND PERHAPS
INTO SAT. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11
     PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
742 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. A
VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...
BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND IN THE NORTH TUESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IS PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY. DO NOT THINK THE FOG WILL BE LAST AS LONG AS
LONG INTO THE DAY AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEMMOVING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN...OR MORE LIKELY
DRIZZLE FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN COAST THIS EVENING AND PROVIDED
ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MIXING TO HINDER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SUSPECT THAT FOG WILL EVENTUALLY
WORSEN IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK THE ANY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
OR PORTLAND METRO AREA WILL BE WIDESPREAD. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOG HAS MOSTLY
CLEARED IN CLARK AND MULTNOMAH COUNTIES AND TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL. THE LOW CLOUDS AND REMAINING
PATCHY FOG ARE HANGING TOUGH IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NORTH INTO THE
TUALATIN VALLEY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE EROSION OF THE
CENTRAL MASS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BUT IT WILL PROBABLY NOT CLEAR
BEFORE AGAIN EXPANDING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING OR FLATTENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT...WEAKENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
ALOFT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MIX THE FOG VERTICALLY. THUS EXPECT MORE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND REDEVELOP TONIGHT.

THERE IS A FRONTAL ZONE OUT NEAR 130W THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND CLOSE TO THE COAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT APPROACHES. IT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE NEAR THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY THE BANK OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST THAT
HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO GRAYS HARBOR. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO REACH ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL SLOWLY EASE INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TUESDAY...THEN HANG UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY DRYING OUT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME
DRIZZLY PERIODS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...BUT EXPECT
IT TO PROBABLY STAY DRY IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY LIFT THE FOG A BIT AND MAKE IT A BIT
PATCHIER IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
SOUTH VALLEY WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE FOG THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE IS STILL A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THAT MAY KEEP THE INVERSION FROM GETTING
TOO STRONG YET AND AFFECTING THE AMOUNT OF FOG A BIT. THIS ALSO
RESTRICTS HOW STRONGLY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INITIALLY REBUILD. BUT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
LITTLE WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT IF
THIS DEVELOPS...MIGHT GIVE US SOME SUN BREAKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FCST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NE PAC WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW STARTING THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE FRI AND SAT.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
THE RIDGE WILL ALSO CREATE ANOTHER LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE AGAIN COOL AND MOSTLY SOCKED IN
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COAST HAVE MORE
SUN AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE ONE SEEN THIS PAST WEEKEND...SO A REPEAT OF
THE RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES THAT MANY LOCATIONS SAW OVER THE
WEEKEND IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME
AS THE FCST MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
A WARM FRONT ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAVE
HELD OFF WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR DENSE FOG OVER THE KPDX-
KVUO METRO AREAS...WHILE LIFR FOG HAS RETURNED ELSEWHERE IN THE
VALLEY. AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS MAY MIX A BIT ALLOWING THE FOG LIFT IN AND OUT OF LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL LIKELY KEEP
AREAS WEST OF THE GORGE MORE MIXED AS WELL...WITH MVFR/IFR SHALLOW
STRATUS/FOG MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MVFR
STRATUS AROUND 1200-1500 FT...LOWERING TO 500 FT AFTER 10Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PERSISTENT EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IFR AND POSSIBLY OCCASIONAL LIFR FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE WINDS DROP OFF...ESPECIALLY BTWN 09Z-14Z TONIGHT.
A WEAK FRONT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER MIXED OVERNIGHT...THEN
EXPECT INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFTER 12Z TUE. EXPECT HIGH MVFR TO
VFR CIGS AFT 19Z TUE. /27

&&

.MARINE...S WINDS HAVE EASED THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15
KT. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOLD AROUND 9 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN AT THIS LEVEL TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE WATERS AND STALL OUT AS IT
WEAKENS ON TUE INTO WED BRINGING A WIND SHIFT BUT WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS FOR THU AND FRI...AND PERHAPS
INTO SAT. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11
     PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 262209
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
209 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. A
VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...
BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND IN THE NORTH TUESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IS PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOG HAS MOSTLY CLEARED
IN CLARK AND MULTNOMAH COUNTIES AND TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL. THE LOW CLOUDS AND REMAINING PATCHY FOG
ARE HANGING TOUGH IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NORTH INTO THE TUALATIN
VALLEY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE EROSION OF THE CENTRAL
MASS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BUT IT WILL PROBABLY NOT CLEAR BEFORE
AGAIN EXPANDING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING OR FLATTENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT...WEAKENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
ALOFT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MIX THE FOG VERTICALLY. THUS EXPECT MORE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND REDEVELOP TONIGHT.

THERE IS A FRONTAL ZONE OUT NEAR 130W THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND CLOSE TO THE COAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT APPROACHES. IT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE NEAR THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY THE BANK OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST THAT
HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO GRAYS HARBOR. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO REACH ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL SLOWLY EASE INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TUESDAY...THEN HANG UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY DRYING OUT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME
DRIZZLY PERIODS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...BUT EXPECT
IT TO PROBABLY STAY DRY IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY LIFT THE FOG A BIT AND MAKE IT A BIT
PATCHIER IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
SOUTH VALLEY WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE FOG THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE IS STILL A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THAT MAY KEEP THE INVERSION FROM GETTING
TOO STRONG YET AND AFFECTING THE AMOUNT OF FOG A BIT. THIS ALSO
RESTRICTS HOW STRONGLY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INITIALLY REBUILD. BUT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
LITTLE WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT IF
THIS DEVELOPS...MIGHT GIVE US SOME SUN BREAKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FCST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NE PAC WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW STARTING THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE FRI AND SAT.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
THE RIDGE WILL ALSO CREATE ANOTHER LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE AGAIN COOL AND MOSTLY SOCKED IN
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COAST HAVE MORE
SUN AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE ONE SEEN THIS PAST WEEKEND...SO A REPEAT OF
THE RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES THAT MANY LOCATIONS SAW OVER THE
WEEKEND IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUN/MON TIMEFRAME
AS THE FCST MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
A WARM FRONT ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT THROUGH THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SOME AREAS OF FOG TO ERODE AND CLEAR.
HOWEVER...POCKETS OF FOG REMAIN AT KHIO AND IN PORTIONS OF THE S AND
CENTRAL VALLEY. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO AGAIN SETTLE
INTO THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING AROUND 02-03Z FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH VALLEY AND ANY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT KHIO WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH FOG DEVELOPING THERE AS WELL. E WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AT KTTD...THOUGH THIS WIND SHOULD EASE A BIT
LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY PERMIT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A LOWER
STRATUS DECK AROUND 2000 FT WILL PUSH ONSHORE FOR KAST AND KONP
AROUND 03Z AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FRONTAL ZONE PUSHES
ONSHORE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HEIGHT OF THIS DECK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT E WIND MAY MAINTAIN MORE CLEARING A BIT INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-12Z TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS EASE A BIT. SOMEWHAT LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO BOTH ONSET AND
DISSIPATION OF FOG. INCREASING MID CLOUDS ON TUE AS WEAKENING FRONTAL
BAND APPROACHES BUT EXPECT HIGH MVFR TO VFR CIGS AFT 19Z TUE. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...GUSTY S WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE BEEN A BIT STRONGER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PUSHING
ABOVE 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. WINDS WILL EASE
THIS EVENING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT N OF CANNON
BEACH THROUGH AROUND 8 OR 9 PM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... SEAS CONTINUE TO
HOLD AROUND 9 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT THIS LEVEL
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE WATERS AND STALL OUT AS IT
WEAKENS ON TUE INTO WED BRINGING A WIND SHIFT BUT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS FOR THU AND FRI...AND PERHAPS INTO SAT. A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THROUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 262209
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
209 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. A
VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...
BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND IN THE NORTH TUESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IS PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOG HAS MOSTLY CLEARED
IN CLARK AND MULTNOMAH COUNTIES AND TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL. THE LOW CLOUDS AND REMAINING PATCHY FOG
ARE HANGING TOUGH IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NORTH INTO THE TUALATIN
VALLEY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE EROSION OF THE CENTRAL
MASS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BUT IT WILL PROBABLY NOT CLEAR BEFORE
AGAIN EXPANDING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING OR FLATTENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT...WEAKENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
ALOFT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MIX THE FOG VERTICALLY. THUS EXPECT MORE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND REDEVELOP TONIGHT.

THERE IS A FRONTAL ZONE OUT NEAR 130W THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND CLOSE TO THE COAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT APPROACHES. IT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE NEAR THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY THE BANK OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST THAT
HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO GRAYS HARBOR. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO REACH ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL SLOWLY EASE INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TUESDAY...THEN HANG UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY DRYING OUT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME
DRIZZLY PERIODS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...BUT EXPECT
IT TO PROBABLY STAY DRY IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY LIFT THE FOG A BIT AND MAKE IT A BIT
PATCHIER IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
SOUTH VALLEY WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE FOG THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE IS STILL A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THAT MAY KEEP THE INVERSION FROM GETTING
TOO STRONG YET AND AFFECTING THE AMOUNT OF FOG A BIT. THIS ALSO
RESTRICTS HOW STRONGLY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INITIALLY REBUILD. BUT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
LITTLE WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT IF
THIS DEVELOPS...MIGHT GIVE US SOME SUN BREAKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FCST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NE PAC WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW STARTING THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE FRI AND SAT.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
THE RIDGE WILL ALSO CREATE ANOTHER LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE AGAIN COOL AND MOSTLY SOCKED IN
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COAST HAVE MORE
SUN AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE ONE SEEN THIS PAST WEEKEND...SO A REPEAT OF
THE RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES THAT MANY LOCATIONS SAW OVER THE
WEEKEND IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUN/MON TIMEFRAME
AS THE FCST MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
A WARM FRONT ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT THROUGH THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SOME AREAS OF FOG TO ERODE AND CLEAR.
HOWEVER...POCKETS OF FOG REMAIN AT KHIO AND IN PORTIONS OF THE S AND
CENTRAL VALLEY. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO AGAIN SETTLE
INTO THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING AROUND 02-03Z FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH VALLEY AND ANY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT KHIO WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH FOG DEVELOPING THERE AS WELL. E WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AT KTTD...THOUGH THIS WIND SHOULD EASE A BIT
LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY PERMIT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A LOWER
STRATUS DECK AROUND 2000 FT WILL PUSH ONSHORE FOR KAST AND KONP
AROUND 03Z AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FRONTAL ZONE PUSHES
ONSHORE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HEIGHT OF THIS DECK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT E WIND MAY MAINTAIN MORE CLEARING A BIT INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-12Z TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS EASE A BIT. SOMEWHAT LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO BOTH ONSET AND
DISSIPATION OF FOG. INCREASING MID CLOUDS ON TUE AS WEAKENING FRONTAL
BAND APPROACHES BUT EXPECT HIGH MVFR TO VFR CIGS AFT 19Z TUE. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...GUSTY S WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE BEEN A BIT STRONGER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PUSHING
ABOVE 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. WINDS WILL EASE
THIS EVENING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT N OF CANNON
BEACH THROUGH AROUND 8 OR 9 PM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... SEAS CONTINUE TO
HOLD AROUND 9 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT THIS LEVEL
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE WATERS AND STALL OUT AS IT
WEAKENS ON TUE INTO WED BRINGING A WIND SHIFT BUT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS FOR THU AND FRI...AND PERHAPS INTO SAT. A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THROUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261754
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
953 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT...BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND IN THE NORTH TUESDAY...THEN LINGER
OVER NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN IS PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FOG IS HOLDING TOUGH IN MOST INLAND AREAS EXCEPT
NEAR TROUTDALE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
MORNING. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO CLEAR
ANYWHERE...AND PROBABLY PERSIST IN MOST INLAND AREAS EXCEPT NEAR THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN TODAY AS LIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
AGAIN THE RULE. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING OR
FLATTENING WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ALOFT BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MIX THE FOG VERTICALLY. EXPECT MORE TO THICKEN AND
REDEVELOP TONIGHT.

THERE IS A FRONTAL ZONE OUT NEAR 130W THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND CLOSE TO THE COAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT APPROACHES. IT WILL TURN
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY THE BANK
OF LOW CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
TO REACH ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
FRONTAL BAND WILL SLOWLY EASE INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TUESDAY...THEN HANG UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY DRYING OUT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME
DRIZZLY PERIODS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...BUT EXPECT
IT TO PROBABLY STAY DRY IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE WED NIGHT
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON THU AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS.     CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND A STRONG INVERSION CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
LIFR/IFR FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE AT KEUG...KSLE...AND PERHAPS KHIO...THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. IF A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING DO DEVELOP AFT 21Z TODAY...EXPECT
IT TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH A RETURN TO FOG SHORTLY AFT 01Z TUE. EAST
WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ARE HELPING TO KEEP
KTTD MOSTLY CLEAR...AND MAY AID IN MIXING AT KPDX. THE EAST WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TODAY...AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN TO
KPDX TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS LATER AND HIGHER AT KTTD. CONDITIONS
REMAIN VFR AND GENERALLY CLEAR ALONG THE COAST. A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL WORK ITS WAY UP THE COAST BRINGING IFR ONSHORE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THIS REMAINS LOW GIVEN
LARGE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIFR FOG CONTINUES AT THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING. LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE CONTINUE
MAY AID IN MIXING A BIT LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS...BUT SUSPECT THIS MAY OCCUR AROUND 20-21Z. A RETURN TO LIFR
FOG APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN AFT 01Z TUE. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY SURGE HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OVER THE WATERS AND
COASTLINE. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WITH A FEW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO BE FREQUENT OR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 8 OR 9 FT TODAY...BUT
MAY TOUCH 10 FT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WIND WAVE COMPONENT
INCREASES WITH ANY STRONGER GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TUE BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SPEED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REBUILDS BY WED OR THU AND WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...REMAINING WELL BELOW 10 FT. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING SEAS AND
WINDS...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THESE SYSTEMS. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL NOON
     PST TODAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261754
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
953 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT...BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND IN THE NORTH TUESDAY...THEN LINGER
OVER NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN IS PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FOG IS HOLDING TOUGH IN MOST INLAND AREAS EXCEPT
NEAR TROUTDALE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
MORNING. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO CLEAR
ANYWHERE...AND PROBABLY PERSIST IN MOST INLAND AREAS EXCEPT NEAR THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN TODAY AS LIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
AGAIN THE RULE. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING OR
FLATTENING WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ALOFT BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MIX THE FOG VERTICALLY. EXPECT MORE TO THICKEN AND
REDEVELOP TONIGHT.

THERE IS A FRONTAL ZONE OUT NEAR 130W THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND CLOSE TO THE COAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT APPROACHES. IT WILL TURN
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY THE BANK
OF LOW CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
TO REACH ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
FRONTAL BAND WILL SLOWLY EASE INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TUESDAY...THEN HANG UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY DRYING OUT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME
DRIZZLY PERIODS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...BUT EXPECT
IT TO PROBABLY STAY DRY IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE WED NIGHT
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON THU AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS.     CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND A STRONG INVERSION CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
LIFR/IFR FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE AT KEUG...KSLE...AND PERHAPS KHIO...THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. IF A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING DO DEVELOP AFT 21Z TODAY...EXPECT
IT TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH A RETURN TO FOG SHORTLY AFT 01Z TUE. EAST
WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ARE HELPING TO KEEP
KTTD MOSTLY CLEAR...AND MAY AID IN MIXING AT KPDX. THE EAST WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TODAY...AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN TO
KPDX TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS LATER AND HIGHER AT KTTD. CONDITIONS
REMAIN VFR AND GENERALLY CLEAR ALONG THE COAST. A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL WORK ITS WAY UP THE COAST BRINGING IFR ONSHORE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THIS REMAINS LOW GIVEN
LARGE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIFR FOG CONTINUES AT THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING. LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE CONTINUE
MAY AID IN MIXING A BIT LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS...BUT SUSPECT THIS MAY OCCUR AROUND 20-21Z. A RETURN TO LIFR
FOG APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN AFT 01Z TUE. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY SURGE HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OVER THE WATERS AND
COASTLINE. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WITH A FEW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO BE FREQUENT OR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 8 OR 9 FT TODAY...BUT
MAY TOUCH 10 FT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WIND WAVE COMPONENT
INCREASES WITH ANY STRONGER GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TUE BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SPEED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REBUILDS BY WED OR THU AND WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...REMAINING WELL BELOW 10 FT. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING SEAS AND
WINDS...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THESE SYSTEMS. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL NOON
     PST TODAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 261040
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE E TODAY...WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION LATER
TODAY. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA THROUGH WED. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATE
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY
INDICATED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXTENDING FROM
THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WA S THROUGH THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND
WILLAMETTE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS WAS SEEN RATHER
DRASTICALLY IN THE 00Z SLE SOUNDING SUN AFTERNOON...A VERY STRONG
INVERSION WAS THE CAUSE OF THE FOG TRAPPED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
WHILE ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT CONDITIONS WERE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER. WATER
VAPOR PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE WAS STILL
IN PLACE OVER OREGON FOR CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS
ALL EXPECT THE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE RAPIDLY E TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A WEAKENING INVERSION. MANY AREAS WERE STILL REPORTING
VISIBILITES AT OR BELOW A QUARTER MILE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION WEAKENS
TODAY...IT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE INLAND STRATUS
EVERYWHERE SO ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH WARMER ALTOUGH NOT QUITE SO WARM TEMPS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE INLAND SURFACE HIGH TODAY...MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A SWITCH TO SSW ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPS ON THE COAST TODAY...AND WILL
ULTIMATELY PUSH SOME MARINE CLOUDS ONTO THE COAST AND SLOWLY SPREAD
THEM INLAND TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES...A RATHER FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DECAYING FRONT SAGGING
DOWN INTO THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGERING THROUGH WED. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THERE IS SOME
DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE OVER THE N COASTAL AREAS WITH THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHILE FURTHER TO THE S AND E MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED...AND TAPER OFF ANY CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FURTHER TO THE S AND E. THE RETURN TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE WED NIGHT MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON THU AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND A STRONG INVERSION HAVE LED TO MOST
TAF SITES DROPPING DOWN INTO LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT KEUG
AND KSLE TO EXPERIENCE THESE REDUCTIONS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KHIO MAY ALSO FALL INTO THIS CATEGORY.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ARE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AT KPDX AND KTTD. THESE EAST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY...AND IF THE LIFR/IFR FOG DOES NOT
RETURN TO THESE SITES LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS ALSO PUSHING
NORTHWARD OFFSHORE. STRATUS OFF THE COAST SHOULD PUSH ASHORE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KAST AND KONP.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF IT
RIGHT NOW SO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF WHEN THESE REDUCTIONS
WILL OCCUR IS HIGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIGHT EAST WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE CONTINUE TO BRING A MIX OF VFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE EAST WINDS TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES SHOULD ALLOW IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING
OF WHEN THE SWITCHES FROM VFR TO LIFR/IFR WILL OCCUR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AND MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT HAVE
LITTLE APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE DURING
THIS TIME...AND END UP WELL BELOW 10 FT. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
A MORE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 AM
     THIS MORNING TO NOON PST TODAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 261040
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE E TODAY...WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION LATER
TODAY. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA THROUGH WED. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATE
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY
INDICATED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXTENDING FROM
THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WA S THROUGH THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND
WILLAMETTE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS WAS SEEN RATHER
DRASTICALLY IN THE 00Z SLE SOUNDING SUN AFTERNOON...A VERY STRONG
INVERSION WAS THE CAUSE OF THE FOG TRAPPED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
WHILE ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT CONDITIONS WERE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER. WATER
VAPOR PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE WAS STILL
IN PLACE OVER OREGON FOR CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS
ALL EXPECT THE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE RAPIDLY E TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A WEAKENING INVERSION. MANY AREAS WERE STILL REPORTING
VISIBILITES AT OR BELOW A QUARTER MILE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION WEAKENS
TODAY...IT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE INLAND STRATUS
EVERYWHERE SO ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH WARMER ALTOUGH NOT QUITE SO WARM TEMPS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE INLAND SURFACE HIGH TODAY...MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A SWITCH TO SSW ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPS ON THE COAST TODAY...AND WILL
ULTIMATELY PUSH SOME MARINE CLOUDS ONTO THE COAST AND SLOWLY SPREAD
THEM INLAND TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES...A RATHER FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DECAYING FRONT SAGGING
DOWN INTO THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGERING THROUGH WED. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THERE IS SOME
DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE OVER THE N COASTAL AREAS WITH THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHILE FURTHER TO THE S AND E MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED...AND TAPER OFF ANY CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FURTHER TO THE S AND E. THE RETURN TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE WED NIGHT MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON THU AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND A STRONG INVERSION HAVE LED TO MOST
TAF SITES DROPPING DOWN INTO LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT KEUG
AND KSLE TO EXPERIENCE THESE REDUCTIONS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KHIO MAY ALSO FALL INTO THIS CATEGORY.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ARE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AT KPDX AND KTTD. THESE EAST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY...AND IF THE LIFR/IFR FOG DOES NOT
RETURN TO THESE SITES LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS ALSO PUSHING
NORTHWARD OFFSHORE. STRATUS OFF THE COAST SHOULD PUSH ASHORE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KAST AND KONP.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF IT
RIGHT NOW SO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF WHEN THESE REDUCTIONS
WILL OCCUR IS HIGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIGHT EAST WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE CONTINUE TO BRING A MIX OF VFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE EAST WINDS TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES SHOULD ALLOW IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING
OF WHEN THE SWITCHES FROM VFR TO LIFR/IFR WILL OCCUR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AND MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT HAVE
LITTLE APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE DURING
THIS TIME...AND END UP WELL BELOW 10 FT. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
A MORE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 AM
     THIS MORNING TO NOON PST TODAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260306
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
706 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT START TO
WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST
TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND
LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG IS FILLING IN QUICKLY FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
THIS EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE EASTERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM TROUTDALE TO THE DALLES HAS INCREASED
TO 4.5 MB...WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR WEAK EASTERLY WINDS TO KEEP THE COAST
MOSTLY FOG FREE TONIGHT. THE ONLY CHANGE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE WAS
TO ADD VISIBILITY WORDING WITH THE FOG FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TJ

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS ARE RESULTING IN PERSISTENT FOG THROUGHOUT THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY IN SW WA. HAD TO EXTEND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON...BUT AS OF 21Z AREAS OF DENSE FOG
CONTINUE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INVERSION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE WERE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S AT 21Z. MARYS PEAK...AT 4137 FT IN THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE...WAS 67 DEG AT 2025Z. EQUALLY AS IMPRESSIVE WAS THE 21Z 63 DEG
READING AT THE 6000-FOOT TIMBERLINE SENSOR WITH A HUMIDITY OF JUST 11
PERCENT. SEVERAL CASCADE RAWS SITES BETWEEN 2500 AND 4500 FEET WERE
IN THE 70S AS OF 22Z.

PRIMARY FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA AND A CLOSED LOW JUST
SOUTH OF BAJA. 12Z MODEL FORECASTS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
16C TO 18C RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WARMEST 850 MB
TEMP RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE
IN THE 1950S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE E TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GFS HAS 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE.
HIGHER PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON
FAIRLY EARLY. VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING  ONTO THE
COAST TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THIS DECAYING FRONT WILL BE RATHER
SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 800 MB LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. NOT LOOKING
AT MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS...WITH DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY THAN RAIN. THE
ECMWF HAS H5 RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD WED...BUT TIME-HEIGHT AND
MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.
THUS...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WED. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE
LATE WED NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON
THU AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...ASTORIA HAS CLEARED OUT...MEANING ALL COASTAL SITES
ARE NOW VFR. THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND. FOG IS STILL LOWERING CIGS
AND VIS AT SOUTH VALLEY SITES TO LIFR/VLIFR. FOG OVER THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY IS BURNING OFF AS EXPECTED...IMPROVING ALL BUT
KHIO TO VFR. KHIO SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 23Z...AND POSSIBLY TO
VFR AFTER 00Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS AROUND 02Z. KEUG MAY STILL
MAKE IT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 23Z AS FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF
IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AFTER 00Z
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND FOG STARTS TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP. CIGS
AND VIS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 02-04Z...WHILE THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR A BIT LATER AROUND 03-06Z. LIFR/VLIFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DENSE FOG
REDEVELOPS OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS. TIMING OF FOG BURN-OFF
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH NORTH VALLEY SITES IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 20-22Z AND SOUTH VALLEY SITES STRUGGLING TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR BY 00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START TO DROP AS FOG
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP AROUND 04Z. CIGS AND VIS DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
AROUND 05Z AND WILL REMAIN WITH 1/4SM VIS FOG OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH FOG RAPIDLY
CLEARING TO VFR AROUND 21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE BEFORE STABILIZING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WILL NOT PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
COULD COME BACK UP NEAR 10 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SOUTHERLY SURGE. MONDAY EVENING SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE...
FALLING TO AROUND 5 FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 260306
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
706 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT START TO
WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST
TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND
LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG IS FILLING IN QUICKLY FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
THIS EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE EASTERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM TROUTDALE TO THE DALLES HAS INCREASED
TO 4.5 MB...WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR WEAK EASTERLY WINDS TO KEEP THE COAST
MOSTLY FOG FREE TONIGHT. THE ONLY CHANGE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE WAS
TO ADD VISIBILITY WORDING WITH THE FOG FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TJ

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS ARE RESULTING IN PERSISTENT FOG THROUGHOUT THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY IN SW WA. HAD TO EXTEND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON...BUT AS OF 21Z AREAS OF DENSE FOG
CONTINUE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INVERSION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE WERE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S AT 21Z. MARYS PEAK...AT 4137 FT IN THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE...WAS 67 DEG AT 2025Z. EQUALLY AS IMPRESSIVE WAS THE 21Z 63 DEG
READING AT THE 6000-FOOT TIMBERLINE SENSOR WITH A HUMIDITY OF JUST 11
PERCENT. SEVERAL CASCADE RAWS SITES BETWEEN 2500 AND 4500 FEET WERE
IN THE 70S AS OF 22Z.

PRIMARY FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA AND A CLOSED LOW JUST
SOUTH OF BAJA. 12Z MODEL FORECASTS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
16C TO 18C RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WARMEST 850 MB
TEMP RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE
IN THE 1950S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE E TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GFS HAS 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE.
HIGHER PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON
FAIRLY EARLY. VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING  ONTO THE
COAST TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THIS DECAYING FRONT WILL BE RATHER
SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 800 MB LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. NOT LOOKING
AT MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS...WITH DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY THAN RAIN. THE
ECMWF HAS H5 RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD WED...BUT TIME-HEIGHT AND
MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.
THUS...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WED. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE
LATE WED NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON
THU AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...ASTORIA HAS CLEARED OUT...MEANING ALL COASTAL SITES
ARE NOW VFR. THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND. FOG IS STILL LOWERING CIGS
AND VIS AT SOUTH VALLEY SITES TO LIFR/VLIFR. FOG OVER THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY IS BURNING OFF AS EXPECTED...IMPROVING ALL BUT
KHIO TO VFR. KHIO SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 23Z...AND POSSIBLY TO
VFR AFTER 00Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS AROUND 02Z. KEUG MAY STILL
MAKE IT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 23Z AS FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF
IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AFTER 00Z
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND FOG STARTS TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP. CIGS
AND VIS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 02-04Z...WHILE THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR A BIT LATER AROUND 03-06Z. LIFR/VLIFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DENSE FOG
REDEVELOPS OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS. TIMING OF FOG BURN-OFF
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH NORTH VALLEY SITES IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 20-22Z AND SOUTH VALLEY SITES STRUGGLING TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR BY 00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START TO DROP AS FOG
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP AROUND 04Z. CIGS AND VIS DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
AROUND 05Z AND WILL REMAIN WITH 1/4SM VIS FOG OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH FOG RAPIDLY
CLEARING TO VFR AROUND 21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE BEFORE STABILIZING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WILL NOT PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
COULD COME BACK UP NEAR 10 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SOUTHERLY SURGE. MONDAY EVENING SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE...
FALLING TO AROUND 5 FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252221
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT START TO
WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST
TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND
LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS ARE RESULTING IN PERSISTENT FOG THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY IN SW WA. HAD TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON...BUT AS OF 21Z AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INVERSION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2000 FT IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE WERE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AT
21Z. MARYS PEAK...AT 4137 FT IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE...WAS 67 DEG
AT 2025Z. EQUALLY AS IMPRESSIVE WAS THE 21Z 63 DEG READING AT THE
6000-FOOT TIMBERLINE SENSOR WITH A HUMIDITY OF JUST 11 PERCENT.
SEVERAL CASCADE RAWS SITES BETWEEN 2500 AND 4500 FEET WERE IN THE 70S
AS OF 22Z.

PRIMARY FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA AND A CLOSED LOW JUST
SOUTH OF BAJA. 12Z MODEL FORECASTS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
16C TO 18C RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WARMEST 850 MB
TEMP RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE
IN THE 1950S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE E TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GFS HAS 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE.
HIGHER PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON
FAIRLY EARLY. VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING  ONTO THE
COAST TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THIS DECAYING FRONT WILL BE RATHER
SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 800 MB LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. NOT LOOKING
AT MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS...WITH DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY THAN RAIN. THE
ECMWF HAS H5 RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD WED...BUT TIME-HEIGHT AND
MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.
THUS...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WED. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE
LATE WED NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON
THU AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...ASTORIA HAS CLEARED OUT...MEANING ALL COASTAL SITES
ARE NOW VFR. THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND. FOG IS STILL LOWERING CIGS
AND VIS AT SOUTH VALLEY SITES TO LIFR/VLIFR. FOG OVER THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY IS BURNING OFF AS EXPECTED...IMPROVING ALL BUT
KHIO TO VFR. KHIO SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 23Z...AND POSSIBLY TO
VFR AFTER 00Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS AROUND 02Z. KEUG MAY STILL
MAKE IT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 23Z AS FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF
IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AFTER 00Z
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND FOG STARTS TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP. CIGS
AND VIS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 02-04Z...WHILE THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR A BIT LATER AROUND 03-06Z. LIFR/VLIFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DENSE FOG
REDEVELOPS OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS. TIMING OF FOG BURN-OFF
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH NORTH VALLEY SITES IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 20-22Z AND SOUTH VALLEY SITES STRUGGLING TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR BY 00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START TO DROP AS FOG
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP AROUND 04Z. CIGS AND VIS DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
AROUND 05Z AND WILL REMAIN WITH 1/4SM VIS FOG OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH FOG RAPIDLY
CLEARING TO VFR AROUND 21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE BEFORE STABILIZING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WILL NOT PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
COULD COME BACK UP NEAR 10 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SOUTHERLY SURGE. MONDAY EVENING SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE...
FALLING TO AROUND 5 FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252221
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT START TO
WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST
TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND
LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS ARE RESULTING IN PERSISTENT FOG THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY IN SW WA. HAD TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON...BUT AS OF 21Z AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INVERSION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2000 FT IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE WERE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AT
21Z. MARYS PEAK...AT 4137 FT IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE...WAS 67 DEG
AT 2025Z. EQUALLY AS IMPRESSIVE WAS THE 21Z 63 DEG READING AT THE
6000-FOOT TIMBERLINE SENSOR WITH A HUMIDITY OF JUST 11 PERCENT.
SEVERAL CASCADE RAWS SITES BETWEEN 2500 AND 4500 FEET WERE IN THE 70S
AS OF 22Z.

PRIMARY FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA AND A CLOSED LOW JUST
SOUTH OF BAJA. 12Z MODEL FORECASTS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
16C TO 18C RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WARMEST 850 MB
TEMP RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE
IN THE 1950S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE E TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GFS HAS 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE.
HIGHER PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON
FAIRLY EARLY. VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING  ONTO THE
COAST TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THIS DECAYING FRONT WILL BE RATHER
SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 800 MB LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. NOT LOOKING
AT MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS...WITH DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY THAN RAIN. THE
ECMWF HAS H5 RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD WED...BUT TIME-HEIGHT AND
MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.
THUS...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WED. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE
LATE WED NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON
THU AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...ASTORIA HAS CLEARED OUT...MEANING ALL COASTAL SITES
ARE NOW VFR. THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND. FOG IS STILL LOWERING CIGS
AND VIS AT SOUTH VALLEY SITES TO LIFR/VLIFR. FOG OVER THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY IS BURNING OFF AS EXPECTED...IMPROVING ALL BUT
KHIO TO VFR. KHIO SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 23Z...AND POSSIBLY TO
VFR AFTER 00Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS AROUND 02Z. KEUG MAY STILL
MAKE IT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 23Z AS FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF
IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AFTER 00Z
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND FOG STARTS TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP. CIGS
AND VIS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 02-04Z...WHILE THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR A BIT LATER AROUND 03-06Z. LIFR/VLIFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DENSE FOG
REDEVELOPS OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS. TIMING OF FOG BURN-OFF
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH NORTH VALLEY SITES IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 20-22Z AND SOUTH VALLEY SITES STRUGGLING TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR BY 00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START TO DROP AS FOG
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP AROUND 04Z. CIGS AND VIS DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
AROUND 05Z AND WILL REMAIN WITH 1/4SM VIS FOG OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH FOG RAPIDLY
CLEARING TO VFR AROUND 21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE BEFORE STABILIZING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WILL NOT PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
COULD COME BACK UP NEAR 10 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SOUTHERLY SURGE. MONDAY EVENING SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE...
FALLING TO AROUND 5 FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 251708
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD FOG THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA OF SW WA. MANY SURFACE OBSERVING SITES
REPORTING ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY...THUS THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. PRIMARY FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS INCLUDE STRONG
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA WITH MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR
TO NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER. ANOTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A CLOSED LOW
JUST SOUTH OF BAJA.

THE 12Z KSLE SOUNDING TELLS THE SHORT-TERM STORY. VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS EVIDENCED BY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUNDING INDICATES THE BASE OF THE INVERSION
AROUND 800 TO 1000 FT. THUS...THE VALLEY FOG LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW.
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED TEMPS NEAR 60F AT 4500 TO 5000 FT WITH RH OF 10%
OR LESS. THE 6000 FT TIMBERLINE LODGE SENSOR WAS AT 52F AS OF 15Z.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE INTERIOR VALLEY MAX TEMPS. WITH SUCH
WIDESPREAD FOG...IT WOULD SEEM A GOOD BET THAT SOME OF IT WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. AFTER A WARM DAY SAT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT. TERRAIN ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MODEL FORECASTS STILL HAVE H8 TEMPS AROUND 16 TO 18 DEG C
TODAY...WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO THE WARMEST H8 TEMP RECORDED IN
JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN THE 1950S. A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS REACHED
THE 60S SAT WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 12 C...SO 60S SHOULD BE EVEN MORE
COMMON THERE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING 70. THE
BEACHES WILL ALSO BE ON THE MILD SIDE TODAY AS ANY FOG THERE SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE E TONIGHT AND MON...RESULTING IN
MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS FORECASTS 850 TEMPS OF
15 TO 18C 06Z MON...BUT DOWN TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE. HIGHER PARTS OF
THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON FAIRLY EARLY.
VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
ONTO THE COAST BY TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY LATE MON NIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS OVER
THE N AND W PARTS OF THE AREA TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /27
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT KONP WHERE
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESTRICTED FOG TO THE YAQUINA BAY. EAST
WIND HAS DEVELOPED AT KAST...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOG OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...IMPROVING THIS SITE TO VFR BY 18Z. LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL NOT HELP MIX OUT THE FOG FROM BELOW...SO HAVE
TO WAIT FOR IT TO BURN OFF FROM ABOVE. SOUNDING TAKEN AT SALEM
THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE FOG WAS AROUND 2000 FT THICK AT
12Z. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IS LIKELY AT NORTHERN SITES BY 19Z...WITH
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR BY AROUND 21-22Z.
NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC FOR FULL CLEARING AT KHIO...THOUGH. SOUTH
VALLEY SITES WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE...WITH KEUG NOT RISING TO
IFR UNTIL 22Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 23-00Z. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
KEUG WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TODAY.

FOG TO RETURN TONIGHT LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO IFR BY AROUND
05-07Z AT NORTHERN VALLEY SITES...AND 02-04Z AT KSLE AND KEUG.
AS FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN...EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND VIS
TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 07-09Z AT NORTHERN SITES...AND 04-06Z IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OFFSHORE WINDS AT COASTAL SITES SHOULD
KEEP THEM VFR...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME FOG ADVECTED INTO THE
TERMINAL AT KAST FROM YOUNGS BAY AS WINDS LOOK TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT THIS SITE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LIFR CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO IFR
BY 18Z. TERMINAL WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO IFR CIGS AND VIS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY 21Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS POSSIBLE BY 22Z. CIGS AND VIS TO DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 06Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
AROUND 08Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
A SOUTHERLY SURGE MAY BRING WINDS UP BRIEFLY AT ONSET...WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS THEREAFTER WILL BE GUSTING TO
AROUND 20-22 KTS...MAKING FOR A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS EVENT.
WILL EVALUATE FURTHER WITH NEW MODEL RUNS LATER THIS MORNING.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8-9 FT. SWELL AT BUOY 005 EARLIER GAVE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE 9 TO 10 FT SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SEAS RISE TO 10 FT BY AROUND NOON TODAY. SEAS LOOK TO EASE BACK
BELOW 10 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SEAS
GETTING BACK UP TO 10 FT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS MIDDAY
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT MONDAY NIGHT AND SUBSIDE
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 AM
     PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 251708
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD FOG THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA OF SW WA. MANY SURFACE OBSERVING SITES
REPORTING ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY...THUS THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. PRIMARY FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS INCLUDE STRONG
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA WITH MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR
TO NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER. ANOTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A CLOSED LOW
JUST SOUTH OF BAJA.

THE 12Z KSLE SOUNDING TELLS THE SHORT-TERM STORY. VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS EVIDENCED BY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUNDING INDICATES THE BASE OF THE INVERSION
AROUND 800 TO 1000 FT. THUS...THE VALLEY FOG LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW.
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED TEMPS NEAR 60F AT 4500 TO 5000 FT WITH RH OF 10%
OR LESS. THE 6000 FT TIMBERLINE LODGE SENSOR WAS AT 52F AS OF 15Z.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE INTERIOR VALLEY MAX TEMPS. WITH SUCH
WIDESPREAD FOG...IT WOULD SEEM A GOOD BET THAT SOME OF IT WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. AFTER A WARM DAY SAT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT. TERRAIN ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MODEL FORECASTS STILL HAVE H8 TEMPS AROUND 16 TO 18 DEG C
TODAY...WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO THE WARMEST H8 TEMP RECORDED IN
JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN THE 1950S. A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS REACHED
THE 60S SAT WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 12 C...SO 60S SHOULD BE EVEN MORE
COMMON THERE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING 70. THE
BEACHES WILL ALSO BE ON THE MILD SIDE TODAY AS ANY FOG THERE SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE E TONIGHT AND MON...RESULTING IN
MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS FORECASTS 850 TEMPS OF
15 TO 18C 06Z MON...BUT DOWN TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE. HIGHER PARTS OF
THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON FAIRLY EARLY.
VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
ONTO THE COAST BY TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY LATE MON NIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS OVER
THE N AND W PARTS OF THE AREA TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /27
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT KONP WHERE
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESTRICTED FOG TO THE YAQUINA BAY. EAST
WIND HAS DEVELOPED AT KAST...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOG OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...IMPROVING THIS SITE TO VFR BY 18Z. LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL NOT HELP MIX OUT THE FOG FROM BELOW...SO HAVE
TO WAIT FOR IT TO BURN OFF FROM ABOVE. SOUNDING TAKEN AT SALEM
THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE FOG WAS AROUND 2000 FT THICK AT
12Z. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IS LIKELY AT NORTHERN SITES BY 19Z...WITH
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR BY AROUND 21-22Z.
NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC FOR FULL CLEARING AT KHIO...THOUGH. SOUTH
VALLEY SITES WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE...WITH KEUG NOT RISING TO
IFR UNTIL 22Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 23-00Z. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
KEUG WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TODAY.

FOG TO RETURN TONIGHT LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO IFR BY AROUND
05-07Z AT NORTHERN VALLEY SITES...AND 02-04Z AT KSLE AND KEUG.
AS FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN...EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND VIS
TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 07-09Z AT NORTHERN SITES...AND 04-06Z IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OFFSHORE WINDS AT COASTAL SITES SHOULD
KEEP THEM VFR...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME FOG ADVECTED INTO THE
TERMINAL AT KAST FROM YOUNGS BAY AS WINDS LOOK TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT THIS SITE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LIFR CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO IFR
BY 18Z. TERMINAL WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO IFR CIGS AND VIS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY 21Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS POSSIBLE BY 22Z. CIGS AND VIS TO DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 06Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
AROUND 08Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
A SOUTHERLY SURGE MAY BRING WINDS UP BRIEFLY AT ONSET...WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS THEREAFTER WILL BE GUSTING TO
AROUND 20-22 KTS...MAKING FOR A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS EVENT.
WILL EVALUATE FURTHER WITH NEW MODEL RUNS LATER THIS MORNING.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8-9 FT. SWELL AT BUOY 005 EARLIER GAVE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE 9 TO 10 FT SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SEAS RISE TO 10 FT BY AROUND NOON TODAY. SEAS LOOK TO EASE BACK
BELOW 10 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SEAS
GETTING BACK UP TO 10 FT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS MIDDAY
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT MONDAY NIGHT AND SUBSIDE
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 AM
     PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251105
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS FILLING IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FOG HAS DEVELOPED UNDER A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...AND CONSIDERING HOW WIDESPREAD IT IS...IT WOULD SEEM A
GOOD BET THAT SOME OF IT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY TODAY. SO...AFTER A WARM DAY SAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE WARM AIR ALOFT. ABOVE
THE VALLEYS THOUGH...ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT...AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM. MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS PEAK AROUND 16 TO 18
DEG C TODAY...WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO THE WARMEST H8 TEMP
RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN
THE 1950S. A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS REACHED THE 60S SAT WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 12 C...SO 60S
SHOULD BE EVEN MORE COMMON THERE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS
TOPPING 70. WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...BEACHES TOO WILL BE ON THE
MILD SIDE TODAY AS ANY FOG THERE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
E TONIGHT AND MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS. VALLEYS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
ONTO THE COAST BY TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...ESP INITIALLY LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. THERE IS STILL HOWEVER SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW
POPS OVER THE N AND W PARTS OF THE AREA TUE.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /27
&&

.AVIATION...VLIFR UNDER FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KONP WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESTRICTED FOG TO
YAQUINA BAY. LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL NOT HELP IMPROVE
CONDITIONS FROM BELOW SO WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT BURNING OFF THE
DECK FROM ABOVE. A COUPLE AMDAR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 09Z
HOUR INDICATE A ROUGH TOP OF THE DECK TO BE AROUND 1000 FEET MSL.
USING THAT AS INPUT FOR LOCAL GUIDANCE GIVES LIFTING TO IFR AROUND
19Z AND CLEARING TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND THE 21Z HOUR. AND
ABOUT 19Z FOR THE SOUTH VALLEY. VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PACK THE MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH KEUG NOT
RISING TO IFR UNTIL AS LATE AS 22Z BUT THEN CLEARING QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

EXPECT A VERY SHORT WINDOW FOR KEUG...HOWEVER...AS LIFR MAY RETURN
AS EARLY AS 26/02Z FRO THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER AREAS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST IFR UNTIL 05-07Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS HOVERING AROUND FIELD
MINIMUMS THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO
IFR FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD PER LAMP GUIDANCE. CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD SHOW ONLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR REMAINING AFTER
19Z BUT WE ARE ALSO UNDER AN UNUSUALLY STRONG INVERSION ALOFT.
WILL PROBABLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GIVE MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO VLIFR AROUND
06Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MODELS THEN
SHOW A SOUTHERLY SURGE ENTERING THE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT THE ONSET. SOUTHERLY WINDS
THEREAFTER APPEAR TO LOCALLY GUST AROUND 22 KT MAKING FOR A
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS EVENT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 30 NM
OR MORE OFFSHORE. GIVEN THAT IFFY AND SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED
NATURE...WILL NOT ISSUE FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME. WINDS EASE MONDAY
MIGHT AND REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT UNTIL PERHAPS A WEEK FROM NOW.

SEAS HAVE STUBBORNLY REMAINED AROUND 9 TO 11 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SEAS ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
AND ALSO BROUGHT THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BACK IN. BUOY 005
CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT 12FT AT THIS HOUR AND WILL TAKE AT LEAST 12
HOURS AFTER IT DROPS TO SEE THE SWELL TRAIN FINALLY EASE BELOW 10
FT CLOSER TO SHORE. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM
     TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM
     TO 11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 251105
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS FILLING IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FOG HAS DEVELOPED UNDER A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...AND CONSIDERING HOW WIDESPREAD IT IS...IT WOULD SEEM A
GOOD BET THAT SOME OF IT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY TODAY. SO...AFTER A WARM DAY SAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE WARM AIR ALOFT. ABOVE
THE VALLEYS THOUGH...ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT...AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM. MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS PEAK AROUND 16 TO 18
DEG C TODAY...WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO THE WARMEST H8 TEMP
RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN
THE 1950S. A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS REACHED THE 60S SAT WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 12 C...SO 60S
SHOULD BE EVEN MORE COMMON THERE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS
TOPPING 70. WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...BEACHES TOO WILL BE ON THE
MILD SIDE TODAY AS ANY FOG THERE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
E TONIGHT AND MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS. VALLEYS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
ONTO THE COAST BY TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...ESP INITIALLY LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. THERE IS STILL HOWEVER SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW
POPS OVER THE N AND W PARTS OF THE AREA TUE.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /27
&&

.AVIATION...VLIFR UNDER FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KONP WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESTRICTED FOG TO
YAQUINA BAY. LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL NOT HELP IMPROVE
CONDITIONS FROM BELOW SO WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT BURNING OFF THE
DECK FROM ABOVE. A COUPLE AMDAR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 09Z
HOUR INDICATE A ROUGH TOP OF THE DECK TO BE AROUND 1000 FEET MSL.
USING THAT AS INPUT FOR LOCAL GUIDANCE GIVES LIFTING TO IFR AROUND
19Z AND CLEARING TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND THE 21Z HOUR. AND
ABOUT 19Z FOR THE SOUTH VALLEY. VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PACK THE MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH KEUG NOT
RISING TO IFR UNTIL AS LATE AS 22Z BUT THEN CLEARING QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

EXPECT A VERY SHORT WINDOW FOR KEUG...HOWEVER...AS LIFR MAY RETURN
AS EARLY AS 26/02Z FRO THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER AREAS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST IFR UNTIL 05-07Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS HOVERING AROUND FIELD
MINIMUMS THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO
IFR FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD PER LAMP GUIDANCE. CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD SHOW ONLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR REMAINING AFTER
19Z BUT WE ARE ALSO UNDER AN UNUSUALLY STRONG INVERSION ALOFT.
WILL PROBABLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GIVE MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO VLIFR AROUND
06Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MODELS THEN
SHOW A SOUTHERLY SURGE ENTERING THE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT THE ONSET. SOUTHERLY WINDS
THEREAFTER APPEAR TO LOCALLY GUST AROUND 22 KT MAKING FOR A
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS EVENT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 30 NM
OR MORE OFFSHORE. GIVEN THAT IFFY AND SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED
NATURE...WILL NOT ISSUE FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME. WINDS EASE MONDAY
MIGHT AND REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT UNTIL PERHAPS A WEEK FROM NOW.

SEAS HAVE STUBBORNLY REMAINED AROUND 9 TO 11 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SEAS ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
AND ALSO BROUGHT THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BACK IN. BUOY 005
CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT 12FT AT THIS HOUR AND WILL TAKE AT LEAST 12
HOURS AFTER IT DROPS TO SEE THE SWELL TRAIN FINALLY EASE BELOW 10
FT CLOSER TO SHORE. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM
     TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM
     TO 11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 242241
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...INLAND SITES HAVE CLEARED TO VFR...WHILE STRATUS OVER
THE COAST HAS KEPT MARINE FOG OVER KAST AND KONP. THIS HAS KEPT
CIGS AND VIS OVER THE COAST MVFR/IFR. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE NORTH COAST EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FOG/LOW STRATUS. WITH FOG
CLEARED THESE SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE AT KAST THAT A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COULD PUSH
SOME FOG INTO THE TERMINAL FROM YOUNGS BAY...WHICH COULD DROP CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR...BUT THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE. INLAND SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
FOG LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE DENSE ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL HELP TO MIX
OUT THIS FOG BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...BUT
KEUG AND POSSIBLY KSLE AS WELL MIGHT ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL START TO
DETERIORATE LATE EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO START TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...LOWERING VIS TO
MVFR BY 10Z WITH A GOOD CHANCE CIGS AND VIS COULD LOWER TO IFR BY
12Z. WITH FOG OVER THE AREA...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS START TO DEVELOP
HELPING TO LIFT CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR BY 18Z...AND IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20-21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE
WATERS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE WATERS. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO OUR
NORTH WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS OF NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET OVER THE WATERS. AFTER TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS AROUND 10 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT LATER
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN WATERS COULD HANG ON TO SEAS ABOVE 10 FT A
LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO 7 TO
9 FT LATER TONIGHT...BUT THIS BREAK MAY BE BRIEF AS MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER 10 FT SWELL MOVING IN MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING
SEAS RIGHT BACK UP TO 10 TO 11 FT. DID NOT ISSUE SMALL CRAFT JUST
YET...AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SEAS GET A BIT HIGHER AT BUOY 005 TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SWELL ACTUALLY WILL BE 10 FT WHEN
IT REACHES OUR WATERS. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 242241
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...INLAND SITES HAVE CLEARED TO VFR...WHILE STRATUS OVER
THE COAST HAS KEPT MARINE FOG OVER KAST AND KONP. THIS HAS KEPT
CIGS AND VIS OVER THE COAST MVFR/IFR. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE NORTH COAST EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FOG/LOW STRATUS. WITH FOG
CLEARED THESE SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE AT KAST THAT A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COULD PUSH
SOME FOG INTO THE TERMINAL FROM YOUNGS BAY...WHICH COULD DROP CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR...BUT THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE. INLAND SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
FOG LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE DENSE ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL HELP TO MIX
OUT THIS FOG BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...BUT
KEUG AND POSSIBLY KSLE AS WELL MIGHT ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL START TO
DETERIORATE LATE EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO START TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...LOWERING VIS TO
MVFR BY 10Z WITH A GOOD CHANCE CIGS AND VIS COULD LOWER TO IFR BY
12Z. WITH FOG OVER THE AREA...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS START TO DEVELOP
HELPING TO LIFT CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR BY 18Z...AND IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20-21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE
WATERS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE WATERS. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO OUR
NORTH WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS OF NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET OVER THE WATERS. AFTER TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS AROUND 10 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT LATER
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN WATERS COULD HANG ON TO SEAS ABOVE 10 FT A
LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO 7 TO
9 FT LATER TONIGHT...BUT THIS BREAK MAY BE BRIEF AS MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER 10 FT SWELL MOVING IN MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING
SEAS RIGHT BACK UP TO 10 TO 11 FT. DID NOT ISSUE SMALL CRAFT JUST
YET...AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SEAS GET A BIT HIGHER AT BUOY 005 TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SWELL ACTUALLY WILL BE 10 FT WHEN
IT REACHES OUR WATERS. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
835 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INLAND VALLEYS WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
APPEAR POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT DRY WEATHER
WILL LIKELY RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
RETURNS OVER THE SW WA AND EXTREME NWRN OREGON AS OF 1630Z. 12Z NAM
AND GFS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K
SURFACE IN THE ABOVE-MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 18Z...THEN ANY
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF SW
WA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND
SUN...PUSHING ANY WARM-FRONTAL REMNANTS FURTHERN N THROUGH WA.
BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS BEGIN TO FORM. NAM HINTS AT A LITTLE LIGHT
OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT... BUT LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

STRONG H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE MORE INTRIGUING AND DIFFICULT APSECT TO THE
FORECAST SUN AND MON...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT AREAS N
OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF
KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY
IF A LIGHT NLY SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW
JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN
UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND
MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE AXIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8
TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. BUMPED UP THE POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND IS THE MOST PROMISING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT SKETCHY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE
RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...AND BENIGN CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /64
&&


.AVIATION...PRIMARILY MVFR OR BETTER ACROSS THE TAF TERMINALS
EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING RAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
WITH KAST HOLDING ON TO THE THREAT LONGEST TODAY. SOME LIFR FOG IN
THE AREA OF KEUG...BUT WIND HAS KEPT IT AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING UNDER A LOW STRATUS/FOG DECK OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY
SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION WITH A TOP AROUND 800 TO 1000 FEET MSL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCE AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH 19Z WITH
A SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK FLOATING AROUND 017. EXPECT CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY LIFT ABOVE 4000 FEET BY 20Z. AFTER 25/06Z...GIVE ABOUT
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITHIN 20NM OF THE
FIELD AND PERHAPS LIMIT VISUAL APPROACHES THROUGH TERRAIN
OBSCURATION. -MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS CURRENTLY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITS THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE NORTH BUT WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT
OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NEXT
THREAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL PERHAPS A WEEK FROM NOW AS A
SUMMERTIME LIKE THERMAL TROUGH MAY SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHERLIES.

SEAS AROUND 11 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY AND GRADUALLY FALL
TODAY...DROPPING BELOW 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL WATERS AROUND SUNSET
AND THE NORTHERN WATERS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL SEE A BRIEF
BREAK WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT LATE TONIGHT UNTIL ANOTHER 10FT WESTERLY
SWELL MOVES IN...BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEAS DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT EARLY MONDAY ANS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
-MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 241637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
835 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INLAND VALLEYS WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
APPEAR POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT DRY WEATHER
WILL LIKELY RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
RETURNS OVER THE SW WA AND EXTREME NWRN OREGON AS OF 1630Z. 12Z NAM
AND GFS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K
SURFACE IN THE ABOVE-MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 18Z...THEN ANY
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF SW
WA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND
SUN...PUSHING ANY WARM-FRONTAL REMNANTS FURTHERN N THROUGH WA.
BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS BEGIN TO FORM. NAM HINTS AT A LITTLE LIGHT
OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT... BUT LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

STRONG H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE MORE INTRIGUING AND DIFFICULT APSECT TO THE
FORECAST SUN AND MON...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT AREAS N
OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF
KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY
IF A LIGHT NLY SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW
JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN
UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND
MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE AXIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8
TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. BUMPED UP THE POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND IS THE MOST PROMISING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT SKETCHY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE
RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...AND BENIGN CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /64
&&


.AVIATION...PRIMARILY MVFR OR BETTER ACROSS THE TAF TERMINALS
EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING RAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
WITH KAST HOLDING ON TO THE THREAT LONGEST TODAY. SOME LIFR FOG IN
THE AREA OF KEUG...BUT WIND HAS KEPT IT AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING UNDER A LOW STRATUS/FOG DECK OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY
SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION WITH A TOP AROUND 800 TO 1000 FEET MSL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCE AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH 19Z WITH
A SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK FLOATING AROUND 017. EXPECT CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY LIFT ABOVE 4000 FEET BY 20Z. AFTER 25/06Z...GIVE ABOUT
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITHIN 20NM OF THE
FIELD AND PERHAPS LIMIT VISUAL APPROACHES THROUGH TERRAIN
OBSCURATION. -MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS CURRENTLY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITS THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE NORTH BUT WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT
OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NEXT
THREAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL PERHAPS A WEEK FROM NOW AS A
SUMMERTIME LIKE THERMAL TROUGH MAY SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHERLIES.

SEAS AROUND 11 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY AND GRADUALLY FALL
TODAY...DROPPING BELOW 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL WATERS AROUND SUNSET
AND THE NORTHERN WATERS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL SEE A BRIEF
BREAK WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT LATE TONIGHT UNTIL ANOTHER 10FT WESTERLY
SWELL MOVES IN...BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEAS DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT EARLY MONDAY ANS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
-MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241031
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH WA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. INLAND VALLEYS WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG
INVERSIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUED TO RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR INDICATED MOST OF THE
RAIN HAD RETREATED UP INTO WA...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
CONTINUED DOWN INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND CASCADES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS BEST SEEN AROUND THE 290K ISENTROPE IN MODEL
DEPICTIONS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE REGION THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FURTHER N TODAY. MODELS SUGGESTED MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON N OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH A LIGHT SE OFFSHORE FLOW THOUGH AND LESS THAN IDEAL
CONDITIONS TO RADIATIVE FOG...EXPECT FOG TO NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD
AND LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. BETTER
CONDITIONS TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL COME SUN AND MON AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT STRENGTHENS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT OFFSHORE BUT LIKELY WITHOUT THE S COMPONENT
TO THE WIND. THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SUN AND MON...ALTHOUGH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO NOT NECESSARILY INFER THAT THE CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD
LAST ALL DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE THE MORE INTRIGUING AND DIFFICULT APSECT TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SUN
TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY. WITHOUT THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TODAY SHOULD POTENTIALLY BE A MILD DAY FOR MOST AREAS. SUN
HOWEVER...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD
SEE COOLER TEMPS...WHILE THE COAST AND NOT TOO MUCH HIGHER UP INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWNRIGHT TOASTY...AT
LEAST FOR JANUARY. EC NAM AND GFS ALL INDICATE H8 TEMPS PEAKING SUN
IN THE 15 TO 17 DEG C RANGE FOR NW OREGON...OF WHICH THERE HAVE ONLY
BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS SO WARM AT H8 SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR
RECORDS ARE FIRST AVAILABLE. SO...EXPECT 60S TO BE FAIRLY
COMMONPLACE FOR HIGH TEMPS SUN ALONG THE COAST AND UP IN THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING
EXPECTED TO BE MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON H8 TEMPS
WILL MODIFY DOWN SOME. BY MON AFTERNOON MODELS GENERALLY HAVE H8
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 10 C...MEANING AREAS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS WILL
STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...BUT NOT SO OUTRAGEOUSLY SO AS SUN.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. BUMPED UP THE POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND IS THE MOST PROMISING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT SKETCHY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE
RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...AND BENIGN CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /64
&&


.AVIATION...PRIMARILY MVFR OR BETTER ACROSS THE TAF TERMINALS
EXCEPT IFR VSBYS AND OCCASIONAL CIGS AT KHIO AND KAST.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING RAIN
THREAT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH KAST HOLDING ON TO THE THREAT
LONGEST TODAY. STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR PREVAILING IFR OR POSSIBLE
LIFR VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOPING AT KEUG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING UNDER A LOW
STRATUS/FOG DECK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR
A FAIRLY SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION WITH A TOP AROUND 800 TO 1000
FEET MSL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCE AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH 19Z PER
LAMP GUIDANCE AND WILL GO WITH THAT AS IT HAS PERFORMED
REASONABLY WELL OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEN EXPECT CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY LIFT ABOVE 4000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
REMAIN SO WELL OVERNIGHT. AFTER 25/06Z...GIVE ABOUT A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AN IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITHIN 20NM OF THE FIELD AND
PERHAPS LIMIT VISUAL APPROACHES THROUGH TERRAIN OBSCURATION.
/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED OFF PER SURFACE AND SATELLITE
DERIVED OBSERVATIONS AND HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE ADVISORY FOR
WINDS AT THIS TIME. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE NORTH BUT WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NEXT THREAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL PERHAPS A
WEEK FROM NOW AS A SUMMERTIME LIKE THERMAL TROUGH MAY SET UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHERLIES.

SEAS HAVE BRIEFLY PEAKED AROUND 13 FT BUT HAVE ALREADY DROPPED OFF
A FOOT OR TWO GIVEN THE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED WINDS. STILL EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11 FEET WITH THE CENTRAL
WATERS DROPPING BELOW AROUND SUNSET TODAY AND THE NORTHERN WATERS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CREEPING BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FT UNDER
ANOTHER WESTERLY SWELL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEAS THEN
REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT DO START TO
SEE A ROBUST MIXED SWELL FORT HE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM PST
     THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




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