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000
FXUS66 KPQR 062353 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
452 PM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.UPDATE...SW WINDS PUSHED COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. THIS COOLER AIR COMBINED
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE LANE COUNTY RESULTED
IN MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS OF
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS
WERE ALSO COOLER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE FURTHER DISTANCE OF THE
THERMAL INDUCED TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER
BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN...AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY UNDER 90 DEG F FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
AREAS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE STRETCH OF HOT
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +18 TO 20 DEG C THROUGH WED FOR CONTINUED
WARM WEATHER WITH INLAND TEMPS NEAR 90F. THE LONGEST CONTINUED
STRETCH OF 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PORTLAND AREA IS 10
DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED JUL 25-AUG 3 2009. THIS RECORD LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE TIED AND POSSIBLY BROKEN THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 90 PLUS DEGREES IN PORTLAND WITH 2 OR 3 MORE 90
DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2PM SHOWS CUMULUS BUILDING ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE INSTABILITY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST EACH DAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEING THE
MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK. TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO THIS HISTORIC HEAT
WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US UNDER ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT
THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF ITS COOLING
INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP MIDWEEK
AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE INTERIOR
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOL DOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST. AREAS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST 05Z-15Z. STRATUS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND TO KKLS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND KPDX 12-15Z. INSTABILITY
OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 04Z OVER CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW 21Z-04Z UNDER INFLUENCE OF LOW TO OFF
OF CALIFORNIA AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.  SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY TUESDAY.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR KKLS AFT 11Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY STRATUS AROUND KPDX 13-15Z TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO STRONG SO WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
MIXING WHICH IS ALLOWING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT UNTIL SUNSET. AS THE
OFFSHORE HIGH BUILDS IN  TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVE SWELL
OF AROUND 2 FT IS COMBINED WITH A 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER
THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH SWELL WEAKENS AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DOMINANT SWELL WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST SWELL ON
TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 062353 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
452 PM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.UPDATE...SW WINDS PUSHED COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. THIS COOLER AIR COMBINED
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE LANE COUNTY RESULTED
IN MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS OF
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS
WERE ALSO COOLER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE FURTHER DISTANCE OF THE
THERMAL INDUCED TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER
BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN...AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY UNDER 90 DEG F FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
AREAS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE STRETCH OF HOT
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +18 TO 20 DEG C THROUGH WED FOR CONTINUED
WARM WEATHER WITH INLAND TEMPS NEAR 90F. THE LONGEST CONTINUED
STRETCH OF 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PORTLAND AREA IS 10
DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED JUL 25-AUG 3 2009. THIS RECORD LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE TIED AND POSSIBLY BROKEN THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 90 PLUS DEGREES IN PORTLAND WITH 2 OR 3 MORE 90
DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2PM SHOWS CUMULUS BUILDING ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE INSTABILITY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST EACH DAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEING THE
MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK. TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO THIS HISTORIC HEAT
WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US UNDER ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT
THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF ITS COOLING
INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP MIDWEEK
AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE INTERIOR
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOL DOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST. AREAS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST 05Z-15Z. STRATUS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND TO KKLS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND KPDX 12-15Z. INSTABILITY
OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 04Z OVER CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW 21Z-04Z UNDER INFLUENCE OF LOW TO OFF
OF CALIFORNIA AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.  SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY TUESDAY.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR KKLS AFT 11Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY STRATUS AROUND KPDX 13-15Z TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO STRONG SO WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
MIXING WHICH IS ALLOWING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT UNTIL SUNSET. AS THE
OFFSHORE HIGH BUILDS IN  TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVE SWELL
OF AROUND 2 FT IS COMBINED WITH A 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER
THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH SWELL WEAKENS AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DOMINANT SWELL WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST SWELL ON
TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 062207
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 PM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +18 TO 20 DEG C THROUGH WED FOR CONTINUED
WARM WEATHER WITH INLAND TEMPS NEAR 90F. THE LONGEST CONTINUED
STRETCH OF 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PORTLAND AREA IS 10
DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED JUL 25-AUG 3 2009. THIS RECORD LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE TIED AND POSSIBLY BROKEN THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 90 PLUS DEGREES IN PORTLAND WITH 2 OR 3 MORE 90
DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2PM SHOWS CUMULUS BUILDING ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE INSTABILITY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST EACH DAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEING THE
MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK. TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO THIS HISTORIC HEAT
WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US UNDER ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT
THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF ITS COOLING
INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP MIDWEEK
AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE INTERIOR
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOL DOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST. AREAS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST 05Z-15Z. STRATUS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND TO KKLS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND KPDX 12-15Z. INSTABILITY
OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 04Z OVER CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW 21Z-04Z UNDER INFLUENCE OF LOW TO OFF
OF CALIFORNIA AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.  SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY TUESDAY.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR KKLS AFT 11Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY STRATUS AROUND KPDX 13-15Z TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO STRONG SO WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
MIXING WHICH IS ALLOWING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT UNTIL SUNSET. AS THE
OFFSHORE HIGH BUILDS IN  TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVE SWELL
OF AROUND 2 FT IS COMBINED WITH A 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER
THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH SWELL WEAKENS AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DOMINANT SWELL WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST SWELL ON
TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 061700
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO ABOUT KELSO. HOT WEATHER CONTINUES EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
AT 9AM RUNNING ABOUT 4-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. EXPECT INLAND
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL HOT.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH WED FOR CONTINUED 90 PLUS
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LONGEST CONTINUED STRETCH OF 90 PLUS
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PORTLAND AREA IS 10 DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED JUL 25-
AUG 3 2009. THIS RECORD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TIED AND POSSIBLY
BROKEN THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 90 PLUS
DEGREES IN PORTLAND WITH 2 OR 3 MORE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUES AFTERNOON.  THERE IS NO
OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...SO ANY
CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CURRENT FCST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS
REASONABLE.TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO THIS HISTORIC HEAT
WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US UNDER ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT
THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF ITS COOLING
INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP MIDWEEK
AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE INTERIOR
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND TODAY. IFR
STRATUS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP
AND THE NEHALEM RIVER GAP THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAS BROKEN UP SOME UNDER INFLUENCE OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH
COAST TO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH IFR AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS OVER THE
NORTH OREGON COAST WILL SLOWLY BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE WITH
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z....THEN RETURNING AROUND 02Z.
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
STEERING FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CASCADES. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR KKLS AFT 09Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
STRATUS AROUND KPDX 13-15Z TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 AM
PDT THIS MORNING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 061700
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO ABOUT KELSO. HOT WEATHER CONTINUES EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
AT 9AM RUNNING ABOUT 4-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. EXPECT INLAND
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL HOT.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH WED FOR CONTINUED 90 PLUS
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LONGEST CONTINUED STRETCH OF 90 PLUS
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PORTLAND AREA IS 10 DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED JUL 25-
AUG 3 2009. THIS RECORD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TIED AND POSSIBLY
BROKEN THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 90 PLUS
DEGREES IN PORTLAND WITH 2 OR 3 MORE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUES AFTERNOON.  THERE IS NO
OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...SO ANY
CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CURRENT FCST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS
REASONABLE.TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO THIS HISTORIC HEAT
WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US UNDER ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT
THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF ITS COOLING
INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP MIDWEEK
AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE INTERIOR
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND TODAY. IFR
STRATUS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP
AND THE NEHALEM RIVER GAP THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAS BROKEN UP SOME UNDER INFLUENCE OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH
COAST TO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH IFR AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS OVER THE
NORTH OREGON COAST WILL SLOWLY BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE WITH
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z....THEN RETURNING AROUND 02Z.
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
STEERING FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CASCADES. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR KKLS AFT 09Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
STRATUS AROUND KPDX 13-15Z TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 AM
PDT THIS MORNING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 061700
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO ABOUT KELSO. HOT WEATHER CONTINUES EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
AT 9AM RUNNING ABOUT 4-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. EXPECT INLAND
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL HOT.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH WED FOR CONTINUED 90 PLUS
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LONGEST CONTINUED STRETCH OF 90 PLUS
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PORTLAND AREA IS 10 DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED JUL 25-
AUG 3 2009. THIS RECORD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TIED AND POSSIBLY
BROKEN THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 90 PLUS
DEGREES IN PORTLAND WITH 2 OR 3 MORE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUES AFTERNOON.  THERE IS NO
OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...SO ANY
CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CURRENT FCST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS
REASONABLE.TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO THIS HISTORIC HEAT
WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US UNDER ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT
THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF ITS COOLING
INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP MIDWEEK
AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE INTERIOR
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND TODAY. IFR
STRATUS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP
AND THE NEHALEM RIVER GAP THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAS BROKEN UP SOME UNDER INFLUENCE OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH
COAST TO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH IFR AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS OVER THE
NORTH OREGON COAST WILL SLOWLY BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE WITH
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z....THEN RETURNING AROUND 02Z.
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
STEERING FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CASCADES. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR KKLS AFT 09Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
STRATUS AROUND KPDX 13-15Z TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 AM
PDT THIS MORNING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061050
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING
LOOK AWFULLY SIMILAR TO HOW THEY HAVE LOOKED THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON REMAINING LOCKED IN A HOT AND
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. A COL PATTERN ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE
REGION LATE LAST WEEK...WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CA COAST...UPPER
TROUGHS CLIPPING WESTERN CANADA...AND UPPER LEVEL HIGHS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND NE PACIFIC. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TENDS TO LOCK ITSELF
IN FOR A WHILE AND THIS HAS BEEN NO EXCEPTION. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER SRN BC/NE WA.

THAT SAID...A DECENT SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL PUSHED UP THE COAST
SUNDAY...DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER WITH STRATUS TOPS 1500-2000 FT
THIS MORNING. IF MEMORY SERVES ME CORRECT...THIS IS DEEPER THAN THE
MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS. THE STRATUS IS PUSHING WELL
INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH A CEILING ALREADY IN
KELSO. THIS IS PROBABLY AN INDICATION THAT ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP KELSO BELOW 90 DEGREES.
THEREFORE WE WILL BE CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA...I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...AND S WA CASCADE
FOOTHILLS.

WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING IN THE MID-580S...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO SHALLOW TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS FURTHER
INLAND TODAY/TUE...AND A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY WEAKEN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WED. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH
WED. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
AS VALLEY HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S THROUGH WED. IF
THIS OCCURS AT PDX...IT WOULD TIE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYS ON RECORD...JUL 25-AUG 3 2009.

ONE CAVEAT IS THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY
LOOKS BORDERLINE DUE TO A PROLIFIC W-SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR...
CONTINUING THIS MORNING WITH 10-20 MPH WINDS AT CVO AND EUG. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH TEMPS STICK NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 90
TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY UP AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS
WARM ENOUGH FOR LOW-MID 90S SHOULD THE ONSHORE FLOW SHUT OFF.

THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY UP THE
OREGON CASCADES TO NEAR MT HOOD. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS THE
AIR MASS ALOFT REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE
EXAGGERATING SFC-BASED CAPE AS USUAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS THAT ARE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH. ALSO THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON
LATEST GFS/EC GUIDANCE. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH
TSTM COVERAGE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO HOLDING WITH THE CURRENT FCST
OF SLIGHT CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO
THIS HISTORIC HEAT WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US
UNDER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF
ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST
IMPORTANT CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS
UP MIDWEEK AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE
INTERIOR GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO
KKLS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK TO THE BEACHES TODAY...THEN
RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS KONP MAY
REMAIN UNDER THE STRATUS OR ONLY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.  INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER LANE COUNTY THROUGH TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS
AROUND 1300 FT AT KKLS AS OF 09Z MON MAY EXTEND TO NEAR KSPB
BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO REACH TAF SITES. /MH

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY- WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     6 AM TO 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061050
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING
LOOK AWFULLY SIMILAR TO HOW THEY HAVE LOOKED THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON REMAINING LOCKED IN A HOT AND
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. A COL PATTERN ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE
REGION LATE LAST WEEK...WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CA COAST...UPPER
TROUGHS CLIPPING WESTERN CANADA...AND UPPER LEVEL HIGHS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND NE PACIFIC. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TENDS TO LOCK ITSELF
IN FOR A WHILE AND THIS HAS BEEN NO EXCEPTION. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER SRN BC/NE WA.

THAT SAID...A DECENT SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL PUSHED UP THE COAST
SUNDAY...DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER WITH STRATUS TOPS 1500-2000 FT
THIS MORNING. IF MEMORY SERVES ME CORRECT...THIS IS DEEPER THAN THE
MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS. THE STRATUS IS PUSHING WELL
INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH A CEILING ALREADY IN
KELSO. THIS IS PROBABLY AN INDICATION THAT ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP KELSO BELOW 90 DEGREES.
THEREFORE WE WILL BE CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA...I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...AND S WA CASCADE
FOOTHILLS.

WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING IN THE MID-580S...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO SHALLOW TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS FURTHER
INLAND TODAY/TUE...AND A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY WEAKEN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WED. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH
WED. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
AS VALLEY HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S THROUGH WED. IF
THIS OCCURS AT PDX...IT WOULD TIE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYS ON RECORD...JUL 25-AUG 3 2009.

ONE CAVEAT IS THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY
LOOKS BORDERLINE DUE TO A PROLIFIC W-SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR...
CONTINUING THIS MORNING WITH 10-20 MPH WINDS AT CVO AND EUG. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH TEMPS STICK NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 90
TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY UP AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS
WARM ENOUGH FOR LOW-MID 90S SHOULD THE ONSHORE FLOW SHUT OFF.

THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY UP THE
OREGON CASCADES TO NEAR MT HOOD. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS THE
AIR MASS ALOFT REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE
EXAGGERATING SFC-BASED CAPE AS USUAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS THAT ARE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH. ALSO THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON
LATEST GFS/EC GUIDANCE. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH
TSTM COVERAGE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO HOLDING WITH THE CURRENT FCST
OF SLIGHT CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO
THIS HISTORIC HEAT WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US
UNDER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF
ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST
IMPORTANT CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS
UP MIDWEEK AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE
INTERIOR GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO
KKLS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK TO THE BEACHES TODAY...THEN
RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS KONP MAY
REMAIN UNDER THE STRATUS OR ONLY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.  INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER LANE COUNTY THROUGH TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS
AROUND 1300 FT AT KKLS AS OF 09Z MON MAY EXTEND TO NEAR KSPB
BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO REACH TAF SITES. /MH

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY- WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     6 AM TO 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 061050
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING
LOOK AWFULLY SIMILAR TO HOW THEY HAVE LOOKED THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON REMAINING LOCKED IN A HOT AND
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. A COL PATTERN ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE
REGION LATE LAST WEEK...WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CA COAST...UPPER
TROUGHS CLIPPING WESTERN CANADA...AND UPPER LEVEL HIGHS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND NE PACIFIC. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TENDS TO LOCK ITSELF
IN FOR A WHILE AND THIS HAS BEEN NO EXCEPTION. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER SRN BC/NE WA.

THAT SAID...A DECENT SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL PUSHED UP THE COAST
SUNDAY...DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER WITH STRATUS TOPS 1500-2000 FT
THIS MORNING. IF MEMORY SERVES ME CORRECT...THIS IS DEEPER THAN THE
MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS. THE STRATUS IS PUSHING WELL
INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH A CEILING ALREADY IN
KELSO. THIS IS PROBABLY AN INDICATION THAT ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP KELSO BELOW 90 DEGREES.
THEREFORE WE WILL BE CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA...I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...AND S WA CASCADE
FOOTHILLS.

WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING IN THE MID-580S...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO SHALLOW TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS FURTHER
INLAND TODAY/TUE...AND A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY WEAKEN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WED. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH
WED. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
AS VALLEY HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S THROUGH WED. IF
THIS OCCURS AT PDX...IT WOULD TIE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYS ON RECORD...JUL 25-AUG 3 2009.

ONE CAVEAT IS THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY
LOOKS BORDERLINE DUE TO A PROLIFIC W-SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR...
CONTINUING THIS MORNING WITH 10-20 MPH WINDS AT CVO AND EUG. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH TEMPS STICK NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 90
TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY UP AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS
WARM ENOUGH FOR LOW-MID 90S SHOULD THE ONSHORE FLOW SHUT OFF.

THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY UP THE
OREGON CASCADES TO NEAR MT HOOD. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS THE
AIR MASS ALOFT REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE
EXAGGERATING SFC-BASED CAPE AS USUAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS THAT ARE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH. ALSO THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON
LATEST GFS/EC GUIDANCE. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH
TSTM COVERAGE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO HOLDING WITH THE CURRENT FCST
OF SLIGHT CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO
THIS HISTORIC HEAT WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US
UNDER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF
ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST
IMPORTANT CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS
UP MIDWEEK AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE
INTERIOR GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO
KKLS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK TO THE BEACHES TODAY...THEN
RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS KONP MAY
REMAIN UNDER THE STRATUS OR ONLY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.  INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER LANE COUNTY THROUGH TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS
AROUND 1300 FT AT KKLS AS OF 09Z MON MAY EXTEND TO NEAR KSPB
BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO REACH TAF SITES. /MH

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY- WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     6 AM TO 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061050
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING
LOOK AWFULLY SIMILAR TO HOW THEY HAVE LOOKED THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON REMAINING LOCKED IN A HOT AND
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. A COL PATTERN ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE
REGION LATE LAST WEEK...WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CA COAST...UPPER
TROUGHS CLIPPING WESTERN CANADA...AND UPPER LEVEL HIGHS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND NE PACIFIC. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TENDS TO LOCK ITSELF
IN FOR A WHILE AND THIS HAS BEEN NO EXCEPTION. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER SRN BC/NE WA.

THAT SAID...A DECENT SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL PUSHED UP THE COAST
SUNDAY...DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER WITH STRATUS TOPS 1500-2000 FT
THIS MORNING. IF MEMORY SERVES ME CORRECT...THIS IS DEEPER THAN THE
MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS. THE STRATUS IS PUSHING WELL
INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH A CEILING ALREADY IN
KELSO. THIS IS PROBABLY AN INDICATION THAT ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP KELSO BELOW 90 DEGREES.
THEREFORE WE WILL BE CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA...I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...AND S WA CASCADE
FOOTHILLS.

WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING IN THE MID-580S...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO SHALLOW TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS FURTHER
INLAND TODAY/TUE...AND A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY WEAKEN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WED. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH
WED. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
AS VALLEY HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S THROUGH WED. IF
THIS OCCURS AT PDX...IT WOULD TIE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYS ON RECORD...JUL 25-AUG 3 2009.

ONE CAVEAT IS THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY
LOOKS BORDERLINE DUE TO A PROLIFIC W-SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR...
CONTINUING THIS MORNING WITH 10-20 MPH WINDS AT CVO AND EUG. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH TEMPS STICK NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 90
TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY UP AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS
WARM ENOUGH FOR LOW-MID 90S SHOULD THE ONSHORE FLOW SHUT OFF.

THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY UP THE
OREGON CASCADES TO NEAR MT HOOD. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS THE
AIR MASS ALOFT REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE
EXAGGERATING SFC-BASED CAPE AS USUAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS THAT ARE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH. ALSO THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON
LATEST GFS/EC GUIDANCE. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH
TSTM COVERAGE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO HOLDING WITH THE CURRENT FCST
OF SLIGHT CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO
THIS HISTORIC HEAT WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US
UNDER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF
ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST
IMPORTANT CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS
UP MIDWEEK AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE
INTERIOR GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO
KKLS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK TO THE BEACHES TODAY...THEN
RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS KONP MAY
REMAIN UNDER THE STRATUS OR ONLY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.  INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER LANE COUNTY THROUGH TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS
AROUND 1300 FT AT KKLS AS OF 09Z MON MAY EXTEND TO NEAR KSPB
BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO REACH TAF SITES. /MH

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY- WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     6 AM TO 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 060402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES NOT FAR
FROM THOSE SATURDAY...AND RECORDS AT PORTLAND AIRPORT...VANCOUVER AND
TROUTDALE. EUGENE HAD EASED A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND WERE SIMILAR
TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND LOW STRATUS SURGE OCCURRED
ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND DROPPED TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES. CLOUDS
BACKED A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT ARE ALREADY FILLING IN. THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN FILL IN RAPIDLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA...
SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND WEAK
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. EXPECT A FAIRLY STATUS
QUO DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...THOUGH WE MAY SEE A FEW MORE
LOW CLOUDS INTO KELSO ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER MONDAY MORNING...AND
PERHAPS A FEW LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO GET CLOSE TO EUGENE. EXPECT
INLAND TEMPS SIMILAR ON MONDAY TO THOSE TODAY...AT OR AT MOST DOWN
ONE OR TWO DEGREES. ALSO...THE SOUTH VALLEY WILL TEND TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN NEAR PORTLAND. THIS PATTERN OF TEMPS AND CLOUDS
WILL TEND TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP CHANGE
YET.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...
THE MODELS HAVE TENDED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THEIR THUNDERSTORMS
COVERAGE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO THAT IS NOT CERTAIN.

THE LOW OFF CALIFORNIA IS TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY CONTINUE THE TREND OF A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW...AND MIGHT EASE INLAND TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF MORE
DEGREES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RELIEF UNTIL POSSIBLY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STILL...THE UPPER RIDGE DOES WEAKEN A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MAY PULL THE THUNDERSTORM MOISTURE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LET THE CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES RIDE.

NO CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THAT REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
INLAND. COOLER MARINE AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORNING CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH MARINE AIR
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS STRATUS MAY MOVE UP THE
LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER REACHING KKLS EARLY MONDAY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
SEEP INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...BUT DO
NOT THINK THEY WILL MAKE IT TO KEUG. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SW-W WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE STRATUS BACK TO THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
IN THE EVENING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER LANE COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WATERS IS
RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN MONDAY
NIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE WATERS... RETURNING
SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LOWER FOR MUCH NEXT WEEK. TJ/PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     6 AM TO 10 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 060402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES NOT FAR
FROM THOSE SATURDAY...AND RECORDS AT PORTLAND AIRPORT...VANCOUVER AND
TROUTDALE. EUGENE HAD EASED A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND WERE SIMILAR
TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND LOW STRATUS SURGE OCCURRED
ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND DROPPED TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES. CLOUDS
BACKED A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT ARE ALREADY FILLING IN. THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN FILL IN RAPIDLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA...
SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND WEAK
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. EXPECT A FAIRLY STATUS
QUO DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...THOUGH WE MAY SEE A FEW MORE
LOW CLOUDS INTO KELSO ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER MONDAY MORNING...AND
PERHAPS A FEW LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO GET CLOSE TO EUGENE. EXPECT
INLAND TEMPS SIMILAR ON MONDAY TO THOSE TODAY...AT OR AT MOST DOWN
ONE OR TWO DEGREES. ALSO...THE SOUTH VALLEY WILL TEND TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN NEAR PORTLAND. THIS PATTERN OF TEMPS AND CLOUDS
WILL TEND TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP CHANGE
YET.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...
THE MODELS HAVE TENDED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THEIR THUNDERSTORMS
COVERAGE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO THAT IS NOT CERTAIN.

THE LOW OFF CALIFORNIA IS TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY CONTINUE THE TREND OF A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW...AND MIGHT EASE INLAND TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF MORE
DEGREES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RELIEF UNTIL POSSIBLY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STILL...THE UPPER RIDGE DOES WEAKEN A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MAY PULL THE THUNDERSTORM MOISTURE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LET THE CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES RIDE.

NO CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THAT REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
INLAND. COOLER MARINE AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORNING CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH MARINE AIR
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS STRATUS MAY MOVE UP THE
LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER REACHING KKLS EARLY MONDAY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
SEEP INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...BUT DO
NOT THINK THEY WILL MAKE IT TO KEUG. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SW-W WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE STRATUS BACK TO THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
IN THE EVENING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER LANE COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WATERS IS
RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN MONDAY
NIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE WATERS... RETURNING
SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LOWER FOR MUCH NEXT WEEK. TJ/PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     6 AM TO 10 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 052139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
UP THE CASCADE CREST TO LANE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES AT 2PM THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING 2 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON READINGS...SO WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO
REACH MID 90S AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY.  SOME RECORD HIGHS
WILL LIKELY BE SET TODAY IN NORTHWEST OREGON WITH EXISTING DAILY
RECORDS OF 94...93 AND 95 AT PORTLAND...VANCOUVER AND TROUTDALE...
RESPECTIVELY.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER NE PACIFIC AND STRETCHES SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE PROLONGED PERIOD
OF HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE INLAND AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE COAST WILL REMAIN
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S AS COOLER MARINE AIR
HUGS THE COASTLINE. EXPECT TO SEE A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR
PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS
PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN GET...IT MAY SQUEEZE A LITTLE MARINE AIR INTO
THE COASTAL RANGE GAPS AND PROVIDE A LITTLE TEMPERATURE RELIEF TO
COMMUNITIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE COAST RANGE.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THATS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS
THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD BY MID WEEK...IT MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES ON TUES/WED.
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES TUES AND WED. TW

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE THAT REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY COOLING
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY INLAND. COOLER MARINE AIR MOVES IN
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORNING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.
PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH MARINE AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH MON. IFR MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG MOST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PUSH THE STRATUS BACK NORTH
ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN INTO MON AM. VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH MON FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH STARTING
MON AM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME MARINE STRATUS MAY BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KEUG TERMINAL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
TODAY. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND OBSERVED WINDS ARE 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE
WEAK GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WED...WITH WINDS
MOSTLY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE
TUE NIGHT AND WED...BRINGING A RETURN TO THE SEASONAL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND PATTERN AS HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS.

SEAS CURRENTLY SIT AT 7 TO 8 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS.
EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
  COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
  VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON
  CASCADE FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
  GORGE.


WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM TO
10 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 052139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
UP THE CASCADE CREST TO LANE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES AT 2PM THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING 2 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON READINGS...SO WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO
REACH MID 90S AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY.  SOME RECORD HIGHS
WILL LIKELY BE SET TODAY IN NORTHWEST OREGON WITH EXISTING DAILY
RECORDS OF 94...93 AND 95 AT PORTLAND...VANCOUVER AND TROUTDALE...
RESPECTIVELY.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER NE PACIFIC AND STRETCHES SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE PROLONGED PERIOD
OF HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE INLAND AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE COAST WILL REMAIN
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S AS COOLER MARINE AIR
HUGS THE COASTLINE. EXPECT TO SEE A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR
PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS
PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN GET...IT MAY SQUEEZE A LITTLE MARINE AIR INTO
THE COASTAL RANGE GAPS AND PROVIDE A LITTLE TEMPERATURE RELIEF TO
COMMUNITIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE COAST RANGE.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THATS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS
THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD BY MID WEEK...IT MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES ON TUES/WED.
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES TUES AND WED. TW

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE THAT REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY COOLING
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY INLAND. COOLER MARINE AIR MOVES IN
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORNING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.
PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH MARINE AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH MON. IFR MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG MOST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PUSH THE STRATUS BACK NORTH
ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN INTO MON AM. VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH MON FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH STARTING
MON AM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME MARINE STRATUS MAY BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KEUG TERMINAL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
TODAY. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND OBSERVED WINDS ARE 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE
WEAK GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WED...WITH WINDS
MOSTLY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE
TUE NIGHT AND WED...BRINGING A RETURN TO THE SEASONAL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND PATTERN AS HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS.

SEAS CURRENTLY SIT AT 7 TO 8 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS.
EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
  COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
  VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON
  CASCADE FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
  GORGE.


WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM TO
10 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 051702
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
EUGENE AREA AS A SOUTHWEST SURGE OF MARINE AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
ADJACENT COAST RANGE.  AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO
LANE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TEMPS AT 9AM THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE SAT AM READING...SO WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER
INLAND TODAY. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER NE PACIFIC AND STRETCHES SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE INLAND
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE COAST
WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.

THE THERMAL LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS
BEHIND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN ID
AND MT THIS MORNING.  WITH THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE WA
COAST AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT...IT PROVIDES A GOOD SETUP FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO DEVELOP AND PUSH UP
THE COAST TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN
GET...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE AND PERHAPS INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR THE EUGENE
METRO AREA. AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS IT IS
DOUBTFUL THE MARINE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREAS SALEM
NORTHWARD. THUS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE DAYS.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THATS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS
THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...IT MAY
BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES ON
TUES/WED.  THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES MIDWEEK.
 TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CIGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 800 FT WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FOG
WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z SUNDAY.  A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. /26

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TODAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN
15 KT. THE THERMAL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS
RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
BAR CONDITIONS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
     UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 051702
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
EUGENE AREA AS A SOUTHWEST SURGE OF MARINE AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
ADJACENT COAST RANGE.  AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO
LANE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TEMPS AT 9AM THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE SAT AM READING...SO WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER
INLAND TODAY. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER NE PACIFIC AND STRETCHES SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE INLAND
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE COAST
WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.

THE THERMAL LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS
BEHIND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN ID
AND MT THIS MORNING.  WITH THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE WA
COAST AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT...IT PROVIDES A GOOD SETUP FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO DEVELOP AND PUSH UP
THE COAST TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN
GET...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE AND PERHAPS INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR THE EUGENE
METRO AREA. AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS IT IS
DOUBTFUL THE MARINE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREAS SALEM
NORTHWARD. THUS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE DAYS.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THATS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS
THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...IT MAY
BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES ON
TUES/WED.  THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES MIDWEEK.
 TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CIGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 800 FT WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FOG
WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z SUNDAY.  A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. /26

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TODAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN
15 KT. THE THERMAL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS
RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
BAR CONDITIONS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
     UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 051702
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
EUGENE AREA AS A SOUTHWEST SURGE OF MARINE AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
ADJACENT COAST RANGE.  AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO
LANE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TEMPS AT 9AM THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE SAT AM READING...SO WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER
INLAND TODAY. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER NE PACIFIC AND STRETCHES SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE INLAND
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE COAST
WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.

THE THERMAL LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS
BEHIND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN ID
AND MT THIS MORNING.  WITH THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE WA
COAST AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT...IT PROVIDES A GOOD SETUP FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO DEVELOP AND PUSH UP
THE COAST TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN
GET...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE AND PERHAPS INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR THE EUGENE
METRO AREA. AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS IT IS
DOUBTFUL THE MARINE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREAS SALEM
NORTHWARD. THUS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE DAYS.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THATS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS
THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...IT MAY
BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES ON
TUES/WED.  THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES MIDWEEK.
 TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CIGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 800 FT WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FOG
WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z SUNDAY.  A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. /26

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TODAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN
15 KT. THE THERMAL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS
RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
BAR CONDITIONS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
     UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 051022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
321 AM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE HEAT IS ON ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON...AND WILL REMAIN ON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STAGNANT
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINING DOMINANT. A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR EUGENE AS A SOUTHWEST SURGE OF MARINE AIR
PUSHES THROUGH THE ADJACENT COAST RANGE. OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE WEAK AND INEFFECTIVE AT BRINGING MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO LANE
COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE OF 2015
CONTINUES ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WHICH HAS RENDERED ONSHORE FLOW WEAK AND
INEFFECTIVE FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS STRETCHED FROM TEXAS/FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH OREGON AND
INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO COMPRESS THE MARINE
LAYER SUCH THAT ONSHORE FLOW IS ROBBED OF ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MORE THAN A FEW MILES INLAND.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA TURNS THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS WA/N OR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
TODAY...FURTHER LIMITING ONSHORE FLOW OR EVEN TURNING IT A LITTLE
OFFSHORE ACROSS WRN WA. WITH ANY VESTIGE OF A MARINE INVERSION
ELIMINATED...TEMPS WILL LIKELY HEAT UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY VERSUS
SATURDAY DESPITE SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20 TO +21 DEG C RANGE.
THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 100 TODAY FOR MANY INLAND VALLEY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE PDX METRO AND SALEM.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFF THE WA COAST AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...AN IDEAL SETUP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO DEVELOP AND PUSH UP THE COAST
TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN GET...IT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME DECENT COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE AND EVEN THE EUGENE METRO. DECIDED TO END THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THESE ZONES THIS EVENING...AS 4 KM WRF-ARW AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST
COOLING SW WINDS PUSHING INTO THE S WILLAMETTE VLY TONIGHT. SOME
MODELS ARE SO BULLISH WITH THIS MARINE PUSH THAT THEY EVEN BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EUGENE AREA MON MORNING...SUSPECT THIS IS A
LITTLE OVERDONE.

AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS IT IS DOUBTFUL THE
MARINE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREAS SALEM NORTHWARD.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND ONSHORE FLOW MITIGATED DUE TO
LOW PRES/WEAKENED HIGH PRES OFFSHORE...EXPECT A FEW MORE HOT DAYS
WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S THROUGH WED. A WEAK FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP NIGHTS WARM. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY THROUGH WED...SO WE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WED EVENING. HOPEFULLY
THIS WILL BE AS FAR AS WE NEED TO GO WITH IT...AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON OUR UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST BY LATE
WEEK.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO
SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO INDUCE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE LANE CO CASCADES. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT IT
APPEARS TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST TUE/WED UNLESS THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CIGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 800 FT WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FOG
WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z SUNDAY.  A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. /26

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TODAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN
15 KT. THE THERMAL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS
RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
BAR CONDITIONS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
     UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 051022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
321 AM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE HEAT IS ON ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON...AND WILL REMAIN ON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STAGNANT
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINING DOMINANT. A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR EUGENE AS A SOUTHWEST SURGE OF MARINE AIR
PUSHES THROUGH THE ADJACENT COAST RANGE. OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE WEAK AND INEFFECTIVE AT BRINGING MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO LANE
COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE OF 2015
CONTINUES ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WHICH HAS RENDERED ONSHORE FLOW WEAK AND
INEFFECTIVE FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS STRETCHED FROM TEXAS/FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH OREGON AND
INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO COMPRESS THE MARINE
LAYER SUCH THAT ONSHORE FLOW IS ROBBED OF ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MORE THAN A FEW MILES INLAND.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA TURNS THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS WA/N OR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
TODAY...FURTHER LIMITING ONSHORE FLOW OR EVEN TURNING IT A LITTLE
OFFSHORE ACROSS WRN WA. WITH ANY VESTIGE OF A MARINE INVERSION
ELIMINATED...TEMPS WILL LIKELY HEAT UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY VERSUS
SATURDAY DESPITE SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20 TO +21 DEG C RANGE.
THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 100 TODAY FOR MANY INLAND VALLEY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE PDX METRO AND SALEM.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFF THE WA COAST AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...AN IDEAL SETUP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO DEVELOP AND PUSH UP THE COAST
TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN GET...IT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME DECENT COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE AND EVEN THE EUGENE METRO. DECIDED TO END THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THESE ZONES THIS EVENING...AS 4 KM WRF-ARW AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST
COOLING SW WINDS PUSHING INTO THE S WILLAMETTE VLY TONIGHT. SOME
MODELS ARE SO BULLISH WITH THIS MARINE PUSH THAT THEY EVEN BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EUGENE AREA MON MORNING...SUSPECT THIS IS A
LITTLE OVERDONE.

AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS IT IS DOUBTFUL THE
MARINE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREAS SALEM NORTHWARD.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND ONSHORE FLOW MITIGATED DUE TO
LOW PRES/WEAKENED HIGH PRES OFFSHORE...EXPECT A FEW MORE HOT DAYS
WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S THROUGH WED. A WEAK FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP NIGHTS WARM. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY THROUGH WED...SO WE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WED EVENING. HOPEFULLY
THIS WILL BE AS FAR AS WE NEED TO GO WITH IT...AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON OUR UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST BY LATE
WEEK.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO
SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO INDUCE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE LANE CO CASCADES. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT IT
APPEARS TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST TUE/WED UNLESS THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CIGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 800 FT WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FOG
WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z SUNDAY.  A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. /26

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TODAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN
15 KT. THE THERMAL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS
RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
BAR CONDITIONS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
     UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY
SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO WEAK LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT AND A BIT
MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL H8 TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY. A BIT OF SEEPAGE OF MARINE AIR
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY EASED TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS INLAND TODAY WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LESS THAN THE SCORCHING NUMBERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE ARE REALLY NO LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OR THE COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT NEAR FLORENCE THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. BUT A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL PERHAPS GIVE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE BY MORNING AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME MARINE SEEPAGE INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY TONIGHT AS WELL.

THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY...CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE THE COAST
A BIT SLOWER TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK OUT ON SUNDAY...THEN HAVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TO CONTINUE AND SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SUPPRESS TEMPS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE EASED BACK ON THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR EUGENE ON SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE VALLEY
WILL STILL BE PRETTY HOT THOUGH ON SUNDAY.

OTHER THAN A BIT MORE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST GOING INTO
MONDAY...DO NOT SEE A LOT OF CHANGE MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY GET CLOSER...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN IT WILL
REACH OUR LANE COUNTY CASCADES YET. TEMPS INLAND WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...BUT PERHAPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE SUNDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A THIN BAND OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE THERMAL LOW WILL
EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY
SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO WEAK LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT AND A BIT
MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL H8 TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY. A BIT OF SEEPAGE OF MARINE AIR
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY EASED TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS INLAND TODAY WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LESS THAN THE SCORCHING NUMBERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE ARE REALLY NO LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OR THE COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT NEAR FLORENCE THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. BUT A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL PERHAPS GIVE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE BY MORNING AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME MARINE SEEPAGE INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY TONIGHT AS WELL.

THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY...CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE THE COAST
A BIT SLOWER TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK OUT ON SUNDAY...THEN HAVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TO CONTINUE AND SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SUPPRESS TEMPS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE EASED BACK ON THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR EUGENE ON SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE VALLEY
WILL STILL BE PRETTY HOT THOUGH ON SUNDAY.

OTHER THAN A BIT MORE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST GOING INTO
MONDAY...DO NOT SEE A LOT OF CHANGE MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY GET CLOSER...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN IT WILL
REACH OUR LANE COUNTY CASCADES YET. TEMPS INLAND WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...BUT PERHAPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE SUNDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A THIN BAND OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE THERMAL LOW WILL
EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY
SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO WEAK LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT AND A BIT
MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL H8 TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY. A BIT OF SEEPAGE OF MARINE AIR
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY EASED TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS INLAND TODAY WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LESS THAN THE SCORCHING NUMBERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE ARE REALLY NO LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OR THE COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT NEAR FLORENCE THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. BUT A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL PERHAPS GIVE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE BY MORNING AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME MARINE SEEPAGE INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY TONIGHT AS WELL.

THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY...CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE THE COAST
A BIT SLOWER TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK OUT ON SUNDAY...THEN HAVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TO CONTINUE AND SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SUPPRESS TEMPS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE EASED BACK ON THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR EUGENE ON SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE VALLEY
WILL STILL BE PRETTY HOT THOUGH ON SUNDAY.

OTHER THAN A BIT MORE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST GOING INTO
MONDAY...DO NOT SEE A LOT OF CHANGE MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY GET CLOSER...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN IT WILL
REACH OUR LANE COUNTY CASCADES YET. TEMPS INLAND WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...BUT PERHAPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE SUNDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A THIN BAND OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE THERMAL LOW WILL
EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 050355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY
SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO WEAK LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT AND A BIT
MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL H8 TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY. A BIT OF SEEPAGE OF MARINE AIR
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY EASED TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS INLAND TODAY WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LESS THAN THE SCORCHING NUMBERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE ARE REALLY NO LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OR THE COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT NEAR FLORENCE THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. BUT A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL PERHAPS GIVE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE BY MORNING AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME MARINE SEEPAGE INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY TONIGHT AS WELL.

THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY...CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE THE COAST
A BIT SLOWER TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK OUT ON SUNDAY...THEN HAVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TO CONTINUE AND SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SUPPRESS TEMPS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE EASED BACK ON THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR EUGENE ON SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE VALLEY
WILL STILL BE PRETTY HOT THOUGH ON SUNDAY.

OTHER THAN A BIT MORE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST GOING INTO
MONDAY...DO NOT SEE A LOT OF CHANGE MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY GET CLOSER...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN IT WILL
REACH OUR LANE COUNTY CASCADES YET. TEMPS INLAND WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...BUT PERHAPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE SUNDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A THIN BAND OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE THERMAL LOW WILL
EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 042130 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SW...
ACROSS SW OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. MODEL H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22
DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUE AND UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...AND NE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO INHIBIT MARINE CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESP ON THE N PART OF THE COAST. GFS...NAM
AND ECWMF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWITCH TO A SSW WIND MOVING UP THE
COAST SUN AND SUN EVENING...SPREADING MARINE CLOUDS BACK UP THE
COAST. THIS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ON THE COAST A BIT
SUN BUT GIVEN THE HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT THE INLAND IMPACT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE SMALL. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TEMPS
THROUGH TUE...WITH INLAND HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
90S. WITH THE CONTINUED HOT DAYTIME TEMPS AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN TODAYS 12Z RUNS TENDS TO SHIFT N A
LITTLE MON AND TUE INTO NW OREGON. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E A BIT WHICH ALLOWS
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FAR S PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO OPEN UP TO THE S. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS IN THE S
CASCADES MON REMAIN STABLE LOOKING...BUT BY TUE AFTERNOON AIR MASS
IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEGINS TO LOOK POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE.
WILL DROP THE MENTION OF CONVECTION ON MON...BUT KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES TUE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT
ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP AT THE COAST BY AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
MID MORNING SUN. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN FOR INTERIOR TAF
SITES. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND LEAD TO A SLACKENING IN THE
WINDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KT TOMORROW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REVERSAL WILL ALSO OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT 15 KT OR LOWER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE
AND FRESH SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN
7 TO 9 FT WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 9 SEC. EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 5 FT SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE SLACKENING
WINDS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...  HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 042130 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SW...
ACROSS SW OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. MODEL H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22
DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUE AND UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...AND NE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO INHIBIT MARINE CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESP ON THE N PART OF THE COAST. GFS...NAM
AND ECWMF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWITCH TO A SSW WIND MOVING UP THE
COAST SUN AND SUN EVENING...SPREADING MARINE CLOUDS BACK UP THE
COAST. THIS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ON THE COAST A BIT
SUN BUT GIVEN THE HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT THE INLAND IMPACT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE SMALL. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TEMPS
THROUGH TUE...WITH INLAND HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
90S. WITH THE CONTINUED HOT DAYTIME TEMPS AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN TODAYS 12Z RUNS TENDS TO SHIFT N A
LITTLE MON AND TUE INTO NW OREGON. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E A BIT WHICH ALLOWS
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FAR S PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO OPEN UP TO THE S. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS IN THE S
CASCADES MON REMAIN STABLE LOOKING...BUT BY TUE AFTERNOON AIR MASS
IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEGINS TO LOOK POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE.
WILL DROP THE MENTION OF CONVECTION ON MON...BUT KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES TUE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT
ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP AT THE COAST BY AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
MID MORNING SUN. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN FOR INTERIOR TAF
SITES. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND LEAD TO A SLACKENING IN THE
WINDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KT TOMORROW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REVERSAL WILL ALSO OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT 15 KT OR LOWER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE
AND FRESH SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN
7 TO 9 FT WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 9 SEC. EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 5 FT SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE SLACKENING
WINDS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...  HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 042120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
221 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SW...
ACROSS SW OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. MODEL H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22
DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUE AND UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...AND NE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO INHIBIT MARINE CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESP ON THE N PART OF THE COAST. GFS...NAM
AND ECWMF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWITCH TO A SSW WIND MOVING UP THE
COAST SUN AND SUN EVENING...SPREADING MARINE CLOUDS BACK UP THE
COAST. THIS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ON THE COAST A BIT
SUN BUT GIVEN THE HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT THE INLAND IMPACT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE SMALL. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TEMPS
THROUGH TUE...WITH INLAND HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
90S. WITH THE CONTINUED HOT DAYTIME TEMPS AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN TODAYS 12Z RUNS TENDS TO SHIFT N A
LITTLE MON AND TUE INTO NW OREGON. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E A BIT WHICH ALLOWS
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FAR S PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO OPEN UP TO THE S. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS IN THE S
CASCADES MON REMAIN STABLE LOOKING...BUT BY TUE AFTERNOON AIR MASS
IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEGINS TO LOOK POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE.
WILL DROP THE MENTION OF CONVECTION ON MON...BUT KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES TUE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT
ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP AT THE COAST BY AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
MID MORNING SUN. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN FOR INTERIOR TAF
SITES. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND LEAD TO A SLACKENING IN THE
WINDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KT TOMORROW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REVERSAL WILL ALSO OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT 15 KT OR LOWER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE
AND FRESH SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN
7 TO 8 FT WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 9 SEC. ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT
CHOPPY...CONDITIONS NO LONGER MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLACKENING WINDS. PYLE



&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 042120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
221 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SW...
ACROSS SW OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. MODEL H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22
DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUE AND UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...AND NE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO INHIBIT MARINE CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESP ON THE N PART OF THE COAST. GFS...NAM
AND ECWMF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWITCH TO A SSW WIND MOVING UP THE
COAST SUN AND SUN EVENING...SPREADING MARINE CLOUDS BACK UP THE
COAST. THIS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ON THE COAST A BIT
SUN BUT GIVEN THE HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT THE INLAND IMPACT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE SMALL. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TEMPS
THROUGH TUE...WITH INLAND HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
90S. WITH THE CONTINUED HOT DAYTIME TEMPS AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN TODAYS 12Z RUNS TENDS TO SHIFT N A
LITTLE MON AND TUE INTO NW OREGON. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E A BIT WHICH ALLOWS
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FAR S PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO OPEN UP TO THE S. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS IN THE S
CASCADES MON REMAIN STABLE LOOKING...BUT BY TUE AFTERNOON AIR MASS
IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEGINS TO LOOK POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE.
WILL DROP THE MENTION OF CONVECTION ON MON...BUT KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES TUE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT
ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP AT THE COAST BY AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
MID MORNING SUN. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN FOR INTERIOR TAF
SITES. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND LEAD TO A SLACKENING IN THE
WINDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KT TOMORROW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REVERSAL WILL ALSO OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT 15 KT OR LOWER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE
AND FRESH SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN
7 TO 8 FT WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 9 SEC. ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT
CHOPPY...CONDITIONS NO LONGER MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLACKENING WINDS. PYLE



&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 041611
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
912 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW FRI EVENING LIKELY RESULTED IN A LITTLE COOLING TO THE AIR
MASS...AS REFLECTED IN 12Z SLE SOUNDING H8 TEMP DOWN TO 19 DEG C
THIS MORNING. THIS EXPECTED TO HELP TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON SPREAD SOME HIGH
CLOUDS UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH ALSO MAY HELP CUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS
IN THE SOUTH TODAY. MARINE CLOUDS WERE RATHER LIMITED THIS
MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS. WITH THE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP RELATIVELY QUICKLY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...TONIGHT SHOULD BE
WARMER AGAIN WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN SUN
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SHOVING THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WA/N OR COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY
HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING +20 TO +22 DEG C AND
LITTLE TO NO MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES
AGAIN FOR SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ODDS ARE GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM
AND 4KM WRF-ARW SHOW THIS. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL INTO
THE 580S IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR EVEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT/MON IS EUGENE...BUT IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. OVERALL AIR MASS ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE
MONDAY...SO BARRING A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY MARINE PUSH THAN
EXPECTED...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND. THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE IMPACT
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE INLAND.

MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST...BUT 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY TO
BRING THUNDER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
COL REMAINING OVER OREGON TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS
ALSO LEAVES THE S CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SNEAKING UP FROM THE S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS
AT THIS POINT ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
COMING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST
MOVES INLAND OVER CA POTENTIALLY BRINGING A DEEPER SW PUSH OF MARINE
AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC
FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU
AND FRI GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING SHOULD BE GONE BY NO
LATER THAN 18Z. THEN EXPECT VFR TO REMAIN AT THE COAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
REFORM BY AROUND 06Z. VFR WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INLAND FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL OCCUR SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE TODAY PRIMARILY WEST OF ABOUT
30 NM. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS
SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE/26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 041611
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
912 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW FRI EVENING LIKELY RESULTED IN A LITTLE COOLING TO THE AIR
MASS...AS REFLECTED IN 12Z SLE SOUNDING H8 TEMP DOWN TO 19 DEG C
THIS MORNING. THIS EXPECTED TO HELP TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON SPREAD SOME HIGH
CLOUDS UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH ALSO MAY HELP CUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS
IN THE SOUTH TODAY. MARINE CLOUDS WERE RATHER LIMITED THIS
MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS. WITH THE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP RELATIVELY QUICKLY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...TONIGHT SHOULD BE
WARMER AGAIN WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN SUN
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SHOVING THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WA/N OR COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY
HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING +20 TO +22 DEG C AND
LITTLE TO NO MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES
AGAIN FOR SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ODDS ARE GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM
AND 4KM WRF-ARW SHOW THIS. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL INTO
THE 580S IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR EVEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT/MON IS EUGENE...BUT IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. OVERALL AIR MASS ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE
MONDAY...SO BARRING A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY MARINE PUSH THAN
EXPECTED...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND. THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE IMPACT
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE INLAND.

MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST...BUT 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY TO
BRING THUNDER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
COL REMAINING OVER OREGON TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS
ALSO LEAVES THE S CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SNEAKING UP FROM THE S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS
AT THIS POINT ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
COMING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST
MOVES INLAND OVER CA POTENTIALLY BRINGING A DEEPER SW PUSH OF MARINE
AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC
FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU
AND FRI GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING SHOULD BE GONE BY NO
LATER THAN 18Z. THEN EXPECT VFR TO REMAIN AT THE COAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
REFORM BY AROUND 06Z. VFR WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INLAND FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL OCCUR SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE TODAY PRIMARILY WEST OF ABOUT
30 NM. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS
SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE/26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 041039
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND THIS MORNING...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A SURGE IN
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ALLOWED A BIT MORE
MARINE AIR TO PENETRATE INLAND THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. STRATUS
HAS BEEN SPOTTY ALONG THE COAST THUS FAR...BUT 11-3.9UM SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING UP THE COLUMBIA
TO NEAR KELSO. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS CLARK COUNTY
TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
PORTLAND METRO.

THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO RELAX SOME AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THIS IS LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS DOING LITTLE TO COOL OFF THE GENERAL AIR MASS
ACROSS OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON...850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES MAY SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF
HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT INLAND
WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. THE LOWER COLUMBIA/KELSO AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE A BIT WARMER TODAY DUE TO THE WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...BACK INTO THE 90S AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FRIDAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER AGAIN WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS
EXPECTED AGAIN SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...SHOVING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WA/N OR COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE
INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
+20 TO +22 DEG C AND LITTLE TO NO MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH 100 DEGREES AGAIN FOR SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ODDS ARE GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM
AND 4KM WRF-ARW SHOW THIS. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL INTO
THE 580S IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR EVEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT/MON IS EUGENE...BUT IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. OVERALL AIR MASS ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE
MONDAY...SO BARRING A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY MARINE PUSH THAN
EXPECTED...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND. THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE IMPACT
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE INLAND.

MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST...BUT 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY TO
BRING THUNDER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
COL REMAINING OVER OREGON TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS
ALSO LEAVES THE S CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SNEAKING UP FROM THE S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS
AT THIS POINT ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
COMING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST
MOVES INLAND OVER CA POTENTIALLY BRINGING A DEEPER SW PUSH OF MARINE
AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC
FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU
AND FRI GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT LOCAL LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
GAPS LEADING INLAND THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE STRATUS HAS NEARLY
FILLED IN KAST TO KHQM...BUT IS PATCHY FOR MUCH THE OREGON COAST.
DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND...MAYBE AS FAR A
KKLS. AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. THERE MAY BE
SOME STRATUS REACHING THE KPDX AREA BETWEEN 14Z-17Z AND EXPECT IT
WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT IF IT FORMS.  /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL OCCUR SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE TODAY PRIMARILY WEST OF ABOUT
30 NM. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS
SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE/26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 041039
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND THIS MORNING...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A SURGE IN
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ALLOWED A BIT MORE
MARINE AIR TO PENETRATE INLAND THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. STRATUS
HAS BEEN SPOTTY ALONG THE COAST THUS FAR...BUT 11-3.9UM SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING UP THE COLUMBIA
TO NEAR KELSO. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS CLARK COUNTY
TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
PORTLAND METRO.

THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO RELAX SOME AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THIS IS LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS DOING LITTLE TO COOL OFF THE GENERAL AIR MASS
ACROSS OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON...850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES MAY SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF
HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT INLAND
WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. THE LOWER COLUMBIA/KELSO AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE A BIT WARMER TODAY DUE TO THE WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...BACK INTO THE 90S AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FRIDAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER AGAIN WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS
EXPECTED AGAIN SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...SHOVING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WA/N OR COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE
INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
+20 TO +22 DEG C AND LITTLE TO NO MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH 100 DEGREES AGAIN FOR SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ODDS ARE GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM
AND 4KM WRF-ARW SHOW THIS. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL INTO
THE 580S IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR EVEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT/MON IS EUGENE...BUT IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. OVERALL AIR MASS ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE
MONDAY...SO BARRING A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY MARINE PUSH THAN
EXPECTED...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND. THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE IMPACT
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE INLAND.

MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST...BUT 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY TO
BRING THUNDER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
COL REMAINING OVER OREGON TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS
ALSO LEAVES THE S CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SNEAKING UP FROM THE S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS
AT THIS POINT ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
COMING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST
MOVES INLAND OVER CA POTENTIALLY BRINGING A DEEPER SW PUSH OF MARINE
AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC
FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU
AND FRI GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT LOCAL LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
GAPS LEADING INLAND THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE STRATUS HAS NEARLY
FILLED IN KAST TO KHQM...BUT IS PATCHY FOR MUCH THE OREGON COAST.
DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND...MAYBE AS FAR A
KKLS. AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. THERE MAY BE
SOME STRATUS REACHING THE KPDX AREA BETWEEN 14Z-17Z AND EXPECT IT
WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT IF IT FORMS.  /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL OCCUR SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE TODAY PRIMARILY WEST OF ABOUT
30 NM. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS
SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE/26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 041039
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND THIS MORNING...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A SURGE IN
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ALLOWED A BIT MORE
MARINE AIR TO PENETRATE INLAND THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. STRATUS
HAS BEEN SPOTTY ALONG THE COAST THUS FAR...BUT 11-3.9UM SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING UP THE COLUMBIA
TO NEAR KELSO. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS CLARK COUNTY
TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
PORTLAND METRO.

THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO RELAX SOME AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THIS IS LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS DOING LITTLE TO COOL OFF THE GENERAL AIR MASS
ACROSS OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON...850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES MAY SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF
HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT INLAND
WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. THE LOWER COLUMBIA/KELSO AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE A BIT WARMER TODAY DUE TO THE WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...BACK INTO THE 90S AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FRIDAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER AGAIN WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS
EXPECTED AGAIN SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...SHOVING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WA/N OR COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE
INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
+20 TO +22 DEG C AND LITTLE TO NO MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH 100 DEGREES AGAIN FOR SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ODDS ARE GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM
AND 4KM WRF-ARW SHOW THIS. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL INTO
THE 580S IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR EVEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT/MON IS EUGENE...BUT IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. OVERALL AIR MASS ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE
MONDAY...SO BARRING A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY MARINE PUSH THAN
EXPECTED...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND. THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE IMPACT
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE INLAND.

MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST...BUT 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY TO
BRING THUNDER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
COL REMAINING OVER OREGON TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS
ALSO LEAVES THE S CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SNEAKING UP FROM THE S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS
AT THIS POINT ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
COMING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST
MOVES INLAND OVER CA POTENTIALLY BRINGING A DEEPER SW PUSH OF MARINE
AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC
FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU
AND FRI GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT LOCAL LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
GAPS LEADING INLAND THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE STRATUS HAS NEARLY
FILLED IN KAST TO KHQM...BUT IS PATCHY FOR MUCH THE OREGON COAST.
DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND...MAYBE AS FAR A
KKLS. AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. THERE MAY BE
SOME STRATUS REACHING THE KPDX AREA BETWEEN 14Z-17Z AND EXPECT IT
WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT IF IT FORMS.  /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL OCCUR SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE TODAY PRIMARILY WEST OF ABOUT
30 NM. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS
SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE/26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 040343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS EVENING. AST-DLS AND AST-PDT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MEAN THAT
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING THAN LAST.
TYPICALLY IT WOULD ALSO MEAN MARINE STRATUS WOULD PUSH FARTHER
INLAND...BUT THERE IS NO MARINE STRATUS TO SPEAK OF YET...SO THE
EXTENT OF THE INLAND PUSH WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON WHEN IT ACTUALLY
FORMS. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT NEWPORT IS ONLY ABOUT 3.5
DEGREES...SO STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIKELY PUSH UP THE COAST AND THEN INLAND. ADDED
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER TO THE PORTLAND AREA FOR SUNDAY MORNING
BUT ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT FRI AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM
THE SW U.S. TO OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE...RUNNING
ACROSS SW OREGON...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COL OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS WEEKEND. UNDER THE
RIDGE NW ONSHORE PRES GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SOME...WHICH
COUPLED WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE
OFF DAYTIME TEMPS FOR SAT BY CUTTING THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES. MODELS
SHOW NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS AGAIN SUN...EXCEPT H8
TEMPS CREEP BACK UP TO AROUND 22 DEG C WHICH SHOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS
BACK CLOSE TO THU HIGHS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A LIMITED PUSH OF MARINE CLOUDS UP
THE LOWER COLUMBIA. A WIND FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST INDICATED
BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOULD HELP SOME CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE OREGON
COAST RANGE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON...BUT OVERALL AIR MASS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE SO WILL STILL SEE INLAND TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES MON AFTERNOON AS GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME INSTABILITY COMING
UP FROM THE S OUT OF THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER COL REMAINING OVER OREGON
TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS ALSO LEAVES THE S
CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT SNEAKING UP FROM THE
S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE COMING AROUND THU
AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST MOVES INLAND OVER CA GIVING
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE
THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU AND FRI GIVEN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME
RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT THE IFR STRATUS TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO OVERNIGHT. INLAND TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SAT. BREEZY NW WINDS RETURN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. NW WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AGAIN AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PYLE/27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO SAT. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THE THERMAL LOW
PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS TO DROP
BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FCST
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD
AROUND 8 SECONDS. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND
AS WINDS SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA- LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 040343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS EVENING. AST-DLS AND AST-PDT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MEAN THAT
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING THAN LAST.
TYPICALLY IT WOULD ALSO MEAN MARINE STRATUS WOULD PUSH FARTHER
INLAND...BUT THERE IS NO MARINE STRATUS TO SPEAK OF YET...SO THE
EXTENT OF THE INLAND PUSH WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON WHEN IT ACTUALLY
FORMS. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT NEWPORT IS ONLY ABOUT 3.5
DEGREES...SO STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIKELY PUSH UP THE COAST AND THEN INLAND. ADDED
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER TO THE PORTLAND AREA FOR SUNDAY MORNING
BUT ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT FRI AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM
THE SW U.S. TO OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE...RUNNING
ACROSS SW OREGON...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COL OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS WEEKEND. UNDER THE
RIDGE NW ONSHORE PRES GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SOME...WHICH
COUPLED WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE
OFF DAYTIME TEMPS FOR SAT BY CUTTING THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES. MODELS
SHOW NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS AGAIN SUN...EXCEPT H8
TEMPS CREEP BACK UP TO AROUND 22 DEG C WHICH SHOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS
BACK CLOSE TO THU HIGHS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A LIMITED PUSH OF MARINE CLOUDS UP
THE LOWER COLUMBIA. A WIND FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST INDICATED
BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOULD HELP SOME CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE OREGON
COAST RANGE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON...BUT OVERALL AIR MASS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE SO WILL STILL SEE INLAND TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES MON AFTERNOON AS GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME INSTABILITY COMING
UP FROM THE S OUT OF THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER COL REMAINING OVER OREGON
TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS ALSO LEAVES THE S
CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT SNEAKING UP FROM THE
S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE COMING AROUND THU
AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST MOVES INLAND OVER CA GIVING
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE
THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU AND FRI GIVEN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME
RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT THE IFR STRATUS TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO OVERNIGHT. INLAND TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SAT. BREEZY NW WINDS RETURN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. NW WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AGAIN AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PYLE/27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO SAT. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THE THERMAL LOW
PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS TO DROP
BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FCST
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD
AROUND 8 SECONDS. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND
AS WINDS SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA- LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





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