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000
FXUS66 KPQR 231626
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING VERY STRONG WIND TO THE COAST AND WINDY CONDITIONS
INLAND...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL IN DOUBT. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TODAY THRU SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. A LARGE SWATH OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OFFSHORE WITHIN THIS CUMULUS
FIELD SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SW-W 850 MB FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL PROVIDE GOOD
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE...SW
WA WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE CASCADE ZONES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
ALL THE MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE
LONG WAVE TROUGH...THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
WHILE SOME DETAILS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR SOME MORE RAIN. MODELS THEN SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MORE WIND
AND RAIN. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGHT OF THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
THE LATEST NAM LOOKS TO BE THE QUICKEST MOVING THE LOW INTO THE S
WASHINGTON WATERS SAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS SLIGHLY SLOWER AND HAS
THE LOW CENTER INTO WRN WA BY 00Z SUN. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST BUT
ALSO HAS THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE WA COASTLINE AS WELL. THERE IS
REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THE COASTAL AREAS COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT
OF HIGH WIND. THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK IS HOW MUCH WIND THE INLAND
AREAS RECEIVE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE SAT AFTEROON. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED
AS A HEADS UP TO THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FT SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO CASCADE PASSES MAY
SEE SOME SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH MUCH LESS AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS. IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH
THE 00Z EURO IN THE UPPER LEVELS STARTING MIDWEEK. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY AS
SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN SPREADS OVER THE REGION. THE VFR TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY
DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
STORY. THE VFR TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING
ON BREAKS IN THE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...AFTER SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LESS WIND TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP BELOW 10 FT FOR FRIDAY.

HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK EITHER NORTHWARD
OR NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE
SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL WILL OCCUR
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT
SEEMS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY. A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
REGARDLESS OF THE TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS MODELS...GALE FORCE
WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT IF THE
STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT. SEAS WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BECOME STEEP AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING
UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL RELAX
IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 231006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS
OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST AND
POSSIBLY INLAND. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS WITH A BIT OF CONSISTENT
LIGHTNING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE TODAY FOR
MORE SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO A THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE MODELS SHOW A NEW
LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THEN
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE SOME DETAILS VARY
AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MORE RAIN
WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN THE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOWEN/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. A WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SO CASCADE PASSES MAY SEE SOME SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH MUCH
LESS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS ALMOST
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z EURO IN THE UPPER LEVELS
STARTING MIDWEEK. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.AVIATION...WITH THE COLD FRONT DOWN INTO SW OREGON THIS MORNING
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE SHOWERS ESP
BEFORE 03Z THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
FRI WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO
JUST UNDER 10 FT BY FRI.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHE BOTH THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...A DEEP LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE SW FRI NIGHT...AND MOVE NE UP OFF THE OREGON COAST
SAT...AND INLAND OVER NW WA SAT NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN STORM FORCE
GUSTS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS BUILDING
AS HIGH AS 20 FT. A COASTAL JET WOULD LIKELY ENHANCE NEARSHORE
WINDS SAT EVENING.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 230355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET STRONG COLD FRONT WAS FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
POSSIBLY WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WAS A
DECENT SURFACE WAVE THAT MOVED ALONG OUR SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT
PRODUCED SOME MODERATELY STRONG NORTH COASTAL WINDS. THE WAVE HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND HELPED PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AND INLAND INTO THE
CASCADES...AND WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. AS
A RESULT...AREAS THAT HAD PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN TODAY HAS SEEN THE
RAINFALL BREAK UP AND EASE. SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE EVEN IN THE
NORTH VALLEY. AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND
BELIEVE THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING IS OVER. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
SPREAD ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND SOME DECENT BRIEF RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO THERE IS A THREAT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH...THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE
SOME DETAILS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR SOME MORE RAIN WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY MOVES ON SATURDAY FOR MORE RAIN.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND INLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES WITH THE
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT
WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS STORM...BUT ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...THE STEADY RAINS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
WITH SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH SPLIT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ON THE COAST. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED IFR CIGS AND VIS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT THERE
SHOULD BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS MAY BRING INCREASED MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON. /26
&&

.MARINE...THE LAST LOW THAT MODELS HANDLED SOMEWHAT POORLY MOVED
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BRINGING
DECENT GALES THERE. WINDS ARE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
ARE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AS THERE IS STILL THE STRONG ZONAL JET IN ABOUT THE SAME
POSITION AND CONCERN IS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN WHAT MODELS ARE
DEPICTING RIGHT NOW. SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT LATER THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 10
FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130 W
AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE
NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS TO 20 FT SEEM MORE THAN
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. /NEUMAN /26
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 230355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET STRONG COLD FRONT WAS FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
POSSIBLY WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WAS A
DECENT SURFACE WAVE THAT MOVED ALONG OUR SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT
PRODUCED SOME MODERATELY STRONG NORTH COASTAL WINDS. THE WAVE HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND HELPED PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AND INLAND INTO THE
CASCADES...AND WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. AS
A RESULT...AREAS THAT HAD PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN TODAY HAS SEEN THE
RAINFALL BREAK UP AND EASE. SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE EVEN IN THE
NORTH VALLEY. AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND
BELIEVE THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING IS OVER. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
SPREAD ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND SOME DECENT BRIEF RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO THERE IS A THREAT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH...THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE
SOME DETAILS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR SOME MORE RAIN WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY MOVES ON SATURDAY FOR MORE RAIN.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND INLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES WITH THE
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT
WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS STORM...BUT ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...THE STEADY RAINS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
WITH SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH SPLIT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ON THE COAST. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED IFR CIGS AND VIS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT THERE
SHOULD BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS MAY BRING INCREASED MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON. /26
&&

.MARINE...THE LAST LOW THAT MODELS HANDLED SOMEWHAT POORLY MOVED
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BRINGING
DECENT GALES THERE. WINDS ARE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
ARE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AS THERE IS STILL THE STRONG ZONAL JET IN ABOUT THE SAME
POSITION AND CONCERN IS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN WHAT MODELS ARE
DEPICTING RIGHT NOW. SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT LATER THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 10
FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130 W
AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE
NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS TO 20 FT SEEM MORE THAN
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. /NEUMAN /26
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 222225 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 1.25 INCHES FEEDING INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN BAND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LED TO
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH EFFECTIVELY STALLED THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR
43N 130W AT CURRENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR
ARE IN THE S WA AND N OR COAST RANGE AND THE S WA CASCADES...WHERE
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR COAST
RANGE AND N WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL
RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE ARE SHOWING SHARP RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO PLENTY OF LEAVES AROUND...SO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD BE A CONCERN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES INTO
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A BROAD CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM OF RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING MODELED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE WA COAST LATE SAT. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OREGON
COAST...LIKE THE GFS 12Z IS INDICATING...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR FCST AREA.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WET
AND WINDY PERIOD IS LIKELY SAT...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
WITH THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS
STORM...BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS INTO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING
INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND BASED ON WEATHER STATIONS AT NEWPORT AND
FLORENCE...IT APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE WATERS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INNER CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
APPEARS ABOUT OVER DESPITE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE CANCELING
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

FURTHER NORTH...A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED AND JUST STARTED PRODUCING LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OF 35 KT AT BUOY 29. IF WINDS HAVE NOT PEAKED ALREADY AT BUOY
29...SUSPECT THEY WILL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WAS
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE.
HOWEVER...ONE MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO TODAYS WINDS...THIS MAY SLOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 10 FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W AND MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE NORTH
OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW END
STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS WILL LIKELY RISE SHARPLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND APPROACH 20 FT LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 222210 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 1.25 INCHES FEEDING INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN BAND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LED TO
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH EFFECTIVELY STALLED THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR
43N 130W AT CURRENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR
ARE IN THE S WA AND N OR COAST RANGE AND THE S WA CASCADES...WHERE
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR COAST
RANGE AND N WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL
RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE ARE SHOWING SHARP RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO PLENTY OF LEAVES AROUND...SO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD BE A CONCERN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES INTO
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A BROAD CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM OF RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING MODELED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE WA COAST LATE SAT. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OREGON
COAST...LIKE THE GFS 12Z IS INDICATING...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR FCST AREA.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WET
AND WINDY PERIOD IS LIKELY SAT...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
WITH THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS
STORM...BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND BASED ON WEATHER STATIONS AT NEWPORT AND
FLORENCE...IT APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE WATERS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INNER CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
APPEARS ABOUT OVER DESPITE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE CANCELING
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED AND
JUST STARTED PRODUCING LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KT AT
BUOY 29. IF WINDS HAVE NOT PEAKED ALREADY AT BUOY 29...SUSPECT
THEY WILL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AS A
RESULT...A GALE WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WAS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE.
HOWEVER...ONE MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO TODAYS WINDS...THIS MAY SLOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 10 FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W AND MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE NORTH
OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW END
STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS WILL LIKELY RISE SHARPLY AND
APPROACH 20 FT LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 222207
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 1.25 INCHES FEEDING INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN BAND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LED TO
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH EFFECTIVELY STALLED THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR
43N 130W AT CURRENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR
ARE IN THE S WA AND N OR COAST RANGE AND THE S WA CASCADES...WHERE
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR COAST
RANGE AND N WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL
RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE ARE SHOWING SHARP RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO PLENTY OF LEAVES AROUND...SO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD BE A CONCERN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES INTO
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A BROAD CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM OF RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING MODELED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE WA COAST LATE SAT. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OREGON
COAST...LIKE THE GFS 12Z IS INDICATING...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR FCST AREA.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WET
AND WINDY PERIOD IS LIKELY SAT...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
WITH THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS
STORM...BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND BASED ON WEATHER STATIONS AT NEWPORT AND
FLORENCE...IT APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE WATERS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
APPEARS ABOUT OVER DESPITE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE
CANCELING THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED AND
JUST STARTED PRODUCING LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KT AT
BUOY 29. IF WINDS HAVE NOT PEAKED ALREADY AT BUOY 29...SUSPECT
THEY WILL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AS A
RESULT...A GALE WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WAS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE.
HOWEVER...ONE MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO TODAYS WINDS...THIS MAY SLOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 10 FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 985MB WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130 W
AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
THE NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW END STORM
FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT SATURDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD CERTAINLY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 20 FT SEAS.

AFTER A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 221638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
940 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ACCESS TO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC...MEANING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH MORNING...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WET AND
POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LASHED
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS FALLEN
OVER THE S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. FAST RESPONDING STREAMS IN THIS AREA SUCH AS THE GRAYS
RIVER AND THE NASELLE RIVER AS SHOWING SHARP RISES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR THE THE GRAYS HAS THE RIVER STAGE REACHING JUST
SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON COAST
RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO WATCHING OUR FAST
RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS DRAINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS THREAT COULD BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN
LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN GUSTY...BUT HAVE
FALLEN SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MOST BEACH AND
HEADLAND LOCATIONS HAVE TOPPED OUT AROUND 45-55 MPH...WITH A FEW
SPOTS GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE NORTH OREGON
COAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. DECIDED TO ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS OF 9 AM. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THAT A WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RE-ENERGIZE THE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT NOON MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WILL
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PYLE

.REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION REMAINS UNCHANGED...
THURSDAY THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL THURSDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG.WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT KAST.
CONDITIONS MAY HOLD IN IFR A BIT LONGER AT KONP. FURTHER
INLAND...WEAKENING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
STEADY RAIN MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
SCATTERED BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ALL INTERIOR TAF SITES TO GENERALLY
RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY RAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TOWARDS 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS...STRETCHING
FROM BUOY 50 NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY
DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT...AND MAY PUSH THE
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN IT THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS AND WILL DECIDE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND IT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY WAY OVERDONE ON THEIR WIND SPEEDS...MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN IF THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
OR IF IT IS EXTENDED.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE
17 TO 19 FT RANGE. GIVEN WINDS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WATERS...SEAS SHOULD RESPOND FAIRLY QUICK IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND DROP INTO THE 14 TO 16 FT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY HOLD STEADY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS
MATERIALIZE...BUT OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND
INTO THE 11 TO 13 FT RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT
IN A DEEPENING 985MB-ISH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR
GREATER SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 FT OR MORE SEAS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 221638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
940 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ACCESS TO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC...MEANING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH MORNING...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WET AND
POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LASHED
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS FALLEN
OVER THE S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. FAST RESPONDING STREAMS IN THIS AREA SUCH AS THE GRAYS
RIVER AND THE NASELLE RIVER AS SHOWING SHARP RISES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR THE THE GRAYS HAS THE RIVER STAGE REACHING JUST
SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON COAST
RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO WATCHING OUR FAST
RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS DRAINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS THREAT COULD BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN
LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN GUSTY...BUT HAVE
FALLEN SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MOST BEACH AND
HEADLAND LOCATIONS HAVE TOPPED OUT AROUND 45-55 MPH...WITH A FEW
SPOTS GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE NORTH OREGON
COAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. DECIDED TO ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS OF 9 AM. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THAT A WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RE-ENERGIZE THE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT NOON MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WILL
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PYLE

.REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION REMAINS UNCHANGED...
THURSDAY THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL THURSDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG.WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT KAST.
CONDITIONS MAY HOLD IN IFR A BIT LONGER AT KONP. FURTHER
INLAND...WEAKENING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
STEADY RAIN MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
SCATTERED BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ALL INTERIOR TAF SITES TO GENERALLY
RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY RAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TOWARDS 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS...STRETCHING
FROM BUOY 50 NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY
DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT...AND MAY PUSH THE
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN IT THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS AND WILL DECIDE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND IT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY WAY OVERDONE ON THEIR WIND SPEEDS...MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN IF THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
OR IF IT IS EXTENDED.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE
17 TO 19 FT RANGE. GIVEN WINDS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WATERS...SEAS SHOULD RESPOND FAIRLY QUICK IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND DROP INTO THE 14 TO 16 FT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY HOLD STEADY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS
MATERIALIZE...BUT OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND
INTO THE 11 TO 13 FT RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT
IN A DEEPENING 985MB-ISH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR
GREATER SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 FT OR MORE SEAS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 221039
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ACCESS TO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC...MEANING OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN VERY WINDY THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
INLAND. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE TUESDAY...MOVING ONSHORE INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AS
ROUGHLY A 993 MB LOW LATE TUE EVENING. THIS LOW BROUGHT A SURGE OF
WIND TO THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MOST HEADLAND
LOCATIONS RECEIVED GUSTS 45-55 MPH...BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. SOME
HIGHER AND MORE EXPOSED HEADLAND LOCATIONS LIKE CAPE MEARS HAVE
RECEIVED HIGHER GUSTS...CAPE MEARS TOPPED OUT AT 66 MPH AT 115 AM.
ALSO THE NOS SITE AT GARIBALDI RECENTLY RECORDED A GUST TO 60 MPH.
EXPECT A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF WIND ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. WILL
LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING UP FOR BEACHES AND HEADLANDS THIS
MORNING...BUT IT WILL BE A VERY MARGINAL ONE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE WAVES OF ENERGY TRAVELLING NE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS REDUCES
THE WIND THREAT INLAND SOMEWHAT...PERHAPS SOME 30-35 MPH GUSTS FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WINDS WILL DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY...BOTH ALONG THE COAST
AND INLAND.

WHILE WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...THIS
IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT NOT JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE INLAND VALLEYS AS
WELL. THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA TENDS
TO SEE THEIR MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THESE WAVY FRONT
SITUATIONS...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELLING
ALONG THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK BUT CARRY A LOT OF MOISTURE. THE
MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY THERE...THERE IS STILL A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER EXTENDING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TO THE DATELINE.
PRECIPIATABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.25 INCH ARE STILL EVIDENT
WITHIN THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.

THEREFORE...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2
INCHES IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN BY
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THE GRAYS RIVER MAY BE SPARED FLOODING...DUE TO
STARTING OFF WITH FAIRLY LOW FLOW. CHPS MODEL SIMULATIONS...EVEN WITH
WORST-CASE SCENARIO RAINFALL OF 4-6 INCHES IN THE WILLAPA
HILLS...ONLY BRING THE RIVER UP TO AROUND 10-11 FT...FLOOD STAGE IS
12 FT. THEREFORE THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOOD THREAT...EXACERBATED BY FALLEN LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

THURSDAY THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL THURSDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG.WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS MOVED JUST ONSHORE WITH COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INLAND
THROUGH 15Z-20Z WED WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR AS HEAVIER
RAIN MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT. MVFR WILL PROBABLY BE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 00Z THU. FOR COASTAL AREAS...LOW MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO
TAKE HOLD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND MAY SEE SOME IFR CIGS BEFORE
SUNRISE . STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH
ASTORIA ALREADY GUSTING TO ALMOST 40 KT AND SIMILAR GUSTS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z WED AND PERHAPS
UNTIL 00Z THU. BUT AFTER 18Z WED GUIDANCE INDICATING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS
THEN MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR NOT A HIGH CONCERN AT THIS POINT BUT SHOULD THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND HOLD...AREAS TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE COULD EXPERIENCE LLWS WED MORNING. BOWEN/MH

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT HAS WORKED ITS WAY JUST ONSHORE WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT BUOYS 29 AND 89 INDICATING THE COLD FRONT ISN`T
TOO FAR BEHIND. BUOY 29 HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING TO GALE
FORCE WITH A COUPLE OF GUSTS TO STORM STRENGTH BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
QUALIFY AS A STORM EVENT. EXPECT WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS TO INCREASE SIMILARLY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 17 FT AND BUOY 29 HAS RECORDED AS HIGH
AS 20 FT WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS MAY APPROACH 20 FT WITH PEAK WINDS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT
EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WEAKER
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH WITH MODELS RUNNING A BIT SLOWER IN THE
RECENT RUNS. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST FOR
LATER FRI INTO SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EURO WITH A BIT OF
GFS BLENDED IN. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SOLID GALE WITH SEAS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY WITH THE SYSTEM.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 220406
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SPREADING INLAND
MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY...AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS SUCH AS
LANE COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WINDY
FRONT NOT ONLY FOR THE COAST BUT POSSIBLY INLAND IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS
INTENSIFYING OFF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS THIS EVENING...
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A DECENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THE OCCLUDED OR WARM FRONT IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE NORTH ALONG
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY LIGHTENED ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...BUT SHOULD PICK UP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND ONSHORE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. THE CURRENT HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE COAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE CONTINUED. LOOK FOR SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WELL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTHWARD.

THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN. THE
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON...BUT BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO OUR NORTH COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...
AND EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH LANE COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS PRECIPITATION RATES EAST IN THE NORTH. AT THIS
POINT WE THINK THE RIVERS WILL HAVE SHARP RISES BUT PROBABLY NOT
FLOOD...BUT IF THE FRONT STALLS A BIT OR RAINFALL RATES ARE A BIT
HEAVIER THAN FORECAST THAN WE MAY GET A COUPLE OF RIVER CLOSE TO
FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS SMALLER CREEKS HAVE TROUBLE
CONTAINING THE RUNOFF AND STORM DRAINS GET BLOCKED BY LEAVES AND
CAUSE SOME LOCAL FLOODING.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT WET UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT THE
MAIN FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION IS MORE
SHOWERY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INLAND WED. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH 15Z-20Z WED WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
MVFR AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT. MVFR WILL PROBABLY BE
WIDESPREAD AFTER 00Z THU. FOR COASTAL AREAS...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
TO START BUT AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
WITH MVFR AND IFR LIKELY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING SOUTH WIND 45 TO 50 KT AS LOW AS
1000 FT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z WED AND PERHAPS
UNTIL 00Z THU. BUT AFTER 18Z WED GUIDANCE INDICATING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THEN
MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR NOT A
HIGH CONCERN AT THIS POINT BUT SHOULD THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WIND HOLD...AREAS TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE COULD EXPERIENCE
LLWS WED MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WORKING ITS WAY TO THE COAST. WINDS HAVE
TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE SE THIS EVENING BUT WILL RETURN TO SOUTH
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT.

HIGH END GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT...WITH STORM
FORCE GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TOMORROW AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. UPDATE WITH 00Z
MODEL RUN APPEARS PEAK WIND AT THE COAST SHOULD BE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM
WED.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE 13 TO 15 FT RANGE...BUT EXPECT THEM
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT OVERNIGHT DURING THE PERIOD
OF HIGHEST WINDS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK THU AND PART OF FRIDAY AS WEAKER
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. BUT ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONT IS BEING
MODELED FOR LATER FRI INTO SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME..SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IS AND
WAIT FOR REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL RUNS TO ARRIVE. BUT IT APPEARS THAT
ANOTHER SOLID GALE WITH SEAS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY. PYLE/MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 220406
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SPREADING INLAND
MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY...AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS SUCH AS
LANE COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WINDY
FRONT NOT ONLY FOR THE COAST BUT POSSIBLY INLAND IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS
INTENSIFYING OFF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS THIS EVENING...
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A DECENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THE OCCLUDED OR WARM FRONT IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE NORTH ALONG
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY LIGHTENED ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...BUT SHOULD PICK UP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND ONSHORE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. THE CURRENT HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE COAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE CONTINUED. LOOK FOR SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WELL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTHWARD.

THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN. THE
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON...BUT BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO OUR NORTH COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...
AND EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH LANE COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS PRECIPITATION RATES EAST IN THE NORTH. AT THIS
POINT WE THINK THE RIVERS WILL HAVE SHARP RISES BUT PROBABLY NOT
FLOOD...BUT IF THE FRONT STALLS A BIT OR RAINFALL RATES ARE A BIT
HEAVIER THAN FORECAST THAN WE MAY GET A COUPLE OF RIVER CLOSE TO
FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS SMALLER CREEKS HAVE TROUBLE
CONTAINING THE RUNOFF AND STORM DRAINS GET BLOCKED BY LEAVES AND
CAUSE SOME LOCAL FLOODING.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT WET UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT THE
MAIN FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION IS MORE
SHOWERY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INLAND WED. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH 15Z-20Z WED WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
MVFR AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT. MVFR WILL PROBABLY BE
WIDESPREAD AFTER 00Z THU. FOR COASTAL AREAS...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
TO START BUT AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
WITH MVFR AND IFR LIKELY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING SOUTH WIND 45 TO 50 KT AS LOW AS
1000 FT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z WED AND PERHAPS
UNTIL 00Z THU. BUT AFTER 18Z WED GUIDANCE INDICATING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THEN
MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR NOT A
HIGH CONCERN AT THIS POINT BUT SHOULD THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WIND HOLD...AREAS TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE COULD EXPERIENCE
LLWS WED MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WORKING ITS WAY TO THE COAST. WINDS HAVE
TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE SE THIS EVENING BUT WILL RETURN TO SOUTH
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT.

HIGH END GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT...WITH STORM
FORCE GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TOMORROW AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. UPDATE WITH 00Z
MODEL RUN APPEARS PEAK WIND AT THE COAST SHOULD BE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM
WED.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE 13 TO 15 FT RANGE...BUT EXPECT THEM
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT OVERNIGHT DURING THE PERIOD
OF HIGHEST WINDS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK THU AND PART OF FRIDAY AS WEAKER
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. BUT ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONT IS BEING
MODELED FOR LATER FRI INTO SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME..SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IS AND
WAIT FOR REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL RUNS TO ARRIVE. BUT IT APPEARS THAT
ANOTHER SOLID GALE WITH SEAS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY. PYLE/MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 212233
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
333 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOP ALONG IT AND PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG AND BROAD UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO APPROACH. SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE
AND SURFACE LOW GENERATING A BAROCLINIC LEAF CENTERED AROUND 130W
AND NEARLY DUE WEST. AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF POSITIVE LIGHTNING IS
BEING GENERATED THROUGH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LOW. THIS LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW...ALBEIT A LITTLE WEAKER AND A BIT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING WHILE THE GFS HAS KEPT IT MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE. HAVE DECIDED
TO MAINTAIN TONIGHTS FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS BUT FEEL ONLY THE ACTUAL
HIGHER HEADLANDS SUCH AS CAPE FOULWEATHER...CAPE LOOKOUT...AND CAPE
DISAPPOINTMENT WILL REALIZE GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH. THE BEACHES AND
INLAND COMMUNITIES COULD TOUCH GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW.

WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE SOUTH VALLEY AND CENTRAL CASCADES PERHAPS WAITING UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING. ONCE RAIN STARTS IT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH ALL AREAS SEEING POTENTIAL TO GET
AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN WITH PORTIONS OF THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES. REFER TO OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES BELOW OR THE WEATHER STORY
ON OUR WEB PAGE FOR A GRAPHIC SHOWING DETAILED AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL BE STAYING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE STORM TRACK WITH THIS EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY RISING
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 7 TO 8000 FOOT LEVEL. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS.

STILL HAVE RUNOFF CONCERNS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS. MAIN ONE WILL BE
FOR CLOGGED DRAINS AND CULVERTS BLOCKED BY FALLEN LEAVES. THIS YEARS
BURN SCARS ALSO PRESENT A BIG UNKNOWN WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE GROUND VERSUS IMMEDIATELY RUNNING OFF
AND CARRYING DEBRIS DOWN THE SLOPES. FINALLY...STILL WILL BE KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE COASTAL RIVERS WITH THE GRAYS RIVER SHOWING FORECASTED
RAPID RISES BUT STILL REMAINING A FOOT OR SO BELOW BANKFULL. OTHER
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES IN THE AREA WILL CERTAINLY RUN HIGH BAND MO
MAINSTEM RIVERS LOOK TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGES DESPITE THIS FIRST
HEAVY RAIN EVENT OF THE YEAR.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH EXPECT SEE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANOTHER
LOW WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BEGIN SENDING ANOTHER WARM FRONT
NORTH. THESE RAINS WILL DRIFT NORTH WITH INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF SALEM STAYING SOMEWHAT DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PAC NW. PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN CONTROL...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME IN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST AND 30 KT
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. STEADIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ONTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TO SPREAD STEADY RAIN IN AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT AFTER 15Z. PYLE


&&

.MARINE...S/SW WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WE STILL EXPECT HIGH END GALE FORCE
GUSTS NEAR 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT...WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50
TO 55 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING
TOMORROW AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE.

A FAIRLY CONSTANT WESTERLY SWELL NEAR 10 FT IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE 11 TO 13 FT
RANGE...BUT EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS MAY APPROACH
20 FT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DURING THE PERIOD OF
HIGHEST WINDS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONT IS BEING MODELED FOR LATER FRI
INTO SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES TO THE FCST
FOR THIS PERIOD. BUT IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SOLID GALE WITH SEAS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY. PYLE


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211644
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
944 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
CLAPS OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT
BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...SPREADING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS
AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND PASS BY. ANOTHER WET
AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THUS FAR WITH THE 12Z OUTPUT.
THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFFSHORE. THE OCCLUSION IS SITUATED
JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS SETUP PLACES
OUR REGION SQUARELY IN THE WARMING SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE TO SEE A COASTAL JET DEVELOP
WITH NAM12 AND RAP INDICATED PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 67 MPH CENTERED
AROUND 900 MB. THUS FEEL MOST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST WILL PEAK OUT
AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND WINDS AT THAT LEVEL VEERING MORE SW THAN THE SOUTH WINDS TRAPPED
ALONG THE TERRAIN. WILL STILL CARRY THE HIGHER SPEEDS TONIGHT IN THE
PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS THE EXPOSED HIGHER HEADLANDS SUCH AS CAPE
FOULWEATHER...CAPE LOOKOUT...AND CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT CERTAINLY COULD
FULLY REALIZE THOSE HIGHER SPEEDS. RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN ON TRACK AS
EXPECTED FROM OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR
THIS SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS FORMING FROM TIME TO TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
COASTAL SITES MAY SEE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD HEAVIER RAIN ONTO THE COAST
OVERNIGHT NIGHT AND INLAND TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF MVFR CIG MAY FORM THROUGH ABOUT 21Z IN SHOWERS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TO SPREAD STEADY RAIN IN AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...S/SW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
GALE FORCE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED. SOME COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT MAY
BRING A FEW 50 TO 55 KT GUSTS TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SEAS
MAY APPROACH 20 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...BUT THE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&





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