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000
FXUS66 KPQR 281109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
309 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WITH DRYING AND
CLEARING SKIES SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHEAST WIND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BE ANCHORED WITH ITS
AXIS ALONG 140W FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF SOME
RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE CASCADES. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SYSTEM THAT COULD LAST MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...ECHOES ON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAVE
DECREASED DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WAS MOVING SOUTH OF THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE OREGON CASCADES
BEFORE THE CLOUDS COMPLETELY CLEAR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR INCREASING
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OFFSHORE ALONG 140W THROUGH
AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN START TO TURN ONSHORE
LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY LATER MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER
TRAJECTORY TO GIVE OUR AREA SOME PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE PATH OF
THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS FOCUS THE BEST QPF OVER THE COAST WATERS
AND ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND AS
WELL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH IN PUSHING PRECIPITATION
INLAND...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST BULLISH. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND
RIGHT NOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE
CASCADES TO NEAR OR A BIT BELOW PASS ELEVATIONS. AMOUNTS WILL BE
QUITE MODEST HOWEVER...MUCH LESS THAN WHAT FELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS
TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE
PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK... CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRES OVER THE S OREGON COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO N CALIF TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FLOW TO BECOME N TO
NE THIS AM. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN AND CLEAR OVER WASHINGTON THIS
AM...WITH CLEARING WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON TODAY.
WITH COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...WILL SEE PATCHY FOG UNTIL
18Z...MAINLY IN S WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY IN THE COWLITZ
LOWLANDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MID CLOUDS CLEARING BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z TODAY. WILL SEE EAST WINDS PICK UP A BIT AFTER 18Z...BUT
GENERALLY IN 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. NO CHANGE TONIGHT WITH VFR AND DRY
EAST WINDS.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES OVER THE S OREGON WATERS WILL PUSH INTO N CALIF
TODAY. GRADIENT TURNING MORE N TO NE ACROSS THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES ON THE WATERS
BEYOND 10 MILES. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAID
WINDS. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS IN COASTAL GAPS TODAY... BUT SUSPECT WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT MANY WITH OVERALL WINDS REMAINING 10 TO 20 KT. WILL
LEAVE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS CLEAR OF ANY ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
WINDS GUSTS WILL EASE BACK TONIGHT AS TIGHTEST GRADIENT SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE S OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PAC MON AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING A
MOSTLY N TO NW WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
PATTERN THIS WEEK...WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TODAY ON OUTER COASTAL
       WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
       TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM TODAY FOR WATERS
       FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR WATERS
       FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
309 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WITH DRYING AND
CLEARING SKIES SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHEAST WIND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BE ANCHORED WITH ITS
AXIS ALONG 140W FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF SOME
RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE CASCADES. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SYSTEM THAT COULD LAST MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...ECHOES ON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAVE
DECREASED DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WAS MOVING SOUTH OF THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE OREGON CASCADES
BEFORE THE CLOUDS COMPLETELY CLEAR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR INCREASING
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OFFSHORE ALONG 140W THROUGH
AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN START TO TURN ONSHORE
LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY LATER MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER
TRAJECTORY TO GIVE OUR AREA SOME PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE PATH OF
THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS FOCUS THE BEST QPF OVER THE COAST WATERS
AND ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND AS
WELL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH IN PUSHING PRECIPITATION
INLAND...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST BULLISH. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND
RIGHT NOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE
CASCADES TO NEAR OR A BIT BELOW PASS ELEVATIONS. AMOUNTS WILL BE
QUITE MODEST HOWEVER...MUCH LESS THAN WHAT FELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS
TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE
PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK... CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRES OVER THE S OREGON COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO N CALIF TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FLOW TO BECOME N TO
NE THIS AM. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN AND CLEAR OVER WASHINGTON THIS
AM...WITH CLEARING WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON TODAY.
WITH COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...WILL SEE PATCHY FOG UNTIL
18Z...MAINLY IN S WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY IN THE COWLITZ
LOWLANDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MID CLOUDS CLEARING BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z TODAY. WILL SEE EAST WINDS PICK UP A BIT AFTER 18Z...BUT
GENERALLY IN 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. NO CHANGE TONIGHT WITH VFR AND DRY
EAST WINDS.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES OVER THE S OREGON WATERS WILL PUSH INTO N CALIF
TODAY. GRADIENT TURNING MORE N TO NE ACROSS THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES ON THE WATERS
BEYOND 10 MILES. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAID
WINDS. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS IN COASTAL GAPS TODAY... BUT SUSPECT WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT MANY WITH OVERALL WINDS REMAINING 10 TO 20 KT. WILL
LEAVE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS CLEAR OF ANY ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
WINDS GUSTS WILL EASE BACK TONIGHT AS TIGHTEST GRADIENT SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE S OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PAC MON AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING A
MOSTLY N TO NW WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
PATTERN THIS WEEK...WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TODAY ON OUTER COASTAL
       WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
       TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM TODAY FOR WATERS
       FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR WATERS
       FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 281109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
309 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WITH DRYING AND
CLEARING SKIES SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHEAST WIND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BE ANCHORED WITH ITS
AXIS ALONG 140W FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF SOME
RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE CASCADES. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SYSTEM THAT COULD LAST MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...ECHOES ON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAVE
DECREASED DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WAS MOVING SOUTH OF THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE OREGON CASCADES
BEFORE THE CLOUDS COMPLETELY CLEAR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR INCREASING
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OFFSHORE ALONG 140W THROUGH
AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN START TO TURN ONSHORE
LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY LATER MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER
TRAJECTORY TO GIVE OUR AREA SOME PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE PATH OF
THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS FOCUS THE BEST QPF OVER THE COAST WATERS
AND ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND AS
WELL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH IN PUSHING PRECIPITATION
INLAND...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST BULLISH. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND
RIGHT NOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE
CASCADES TO NEAR OR A BIT BELOW PASS ELEVATIONS. AMOUNTS WILL BE
QUITE MODEST HOWEVER...MUCH LESS THAN WHAT FELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS
TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE
PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK... CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRES OVER THE S OREGON COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO N CALIF TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FLOW TO BECOME N TO
NE THIS AM. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN AND CLEAR OVER WASHINGTON THIS
AM...WITH CLEARING WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON TODAY.
WITH COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...WILL SEE PATCHY FOG UNTIL
18Z...MAINLY IN S WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY IN THE COWLITZ
LOWLANDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MID CLOUDS CLEARING BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z TODAY. WILL SEE EAST WINDS PICK UP A BIT AFTER 18Z...BUT
GENERALLY IN 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. NO CHANGE TONIGHT WITH VFR AND DRY
EAST WINDS.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES OVER THE S OREGON WATERS WILL PUSH INTO N CALIF
TODAY. GRADIENT TURNING MORE N TO NE ACROSS THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES ON THE WATERS
BEYOND 10 MILES. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAID
WINDS. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS IN COASTAL GAPS TODAY... BUT SUSPECT WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT MANY WITH OVERALL WINDS REMAINING 10 TO 20 KT. WILL
LEAVE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS CLEAR OF ANY ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
WINDS GUSTS WILL EASE BACK TONIGHT AS TIGHTEST GRADIENT SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE S OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PAC MON AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING A
MOSTLY N TO NW WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
PATTERN THIS WEEK...WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TODAY ON OUTER COASTAL
       WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
       TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM TODAY FOR WATERS
       FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR WATERS
       FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
309 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WITH DRYING AND
CLEARING SKIES SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHEAST WIND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BE ANCHORED WITH ITS
AXIS ALONG 140W FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF SOME
RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE CASCADES. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SYSTEM THAT COULD LAST MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...ECHOES ON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAVE
DECREASED DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WAS MOVING SOUTH OF THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE OREGON CASCADES
BEFORE THE CLOUDS COMPLETELY CLEAR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR INCREASING
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OFFSHORE ALONG 140W THROUGH
AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN START TO TURN ONSHORE
LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY LATER MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER
TRAJECTORY TO GIVE OUR AREA SOME PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE PATH OF
THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS FOCUS THE BEST QPF OVER THE COAST WATERS
AND ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND AS
WELL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH IN PUSHING PRECIPITATION
INLAND...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST BULLISH. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND
RIGHT NOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE
CASCADES TO NEAR OR A BIT BELOW PASS ELEVATIONS. AMOUNTS WILL BE
QUITE MODEST HOWEVER...MUCH LESS THAN WHAT FELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS
TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE
PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK... CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRES OVER THE S OREGON COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO N CALIF TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FLOW TO BECOME N TO
NE THIS AM. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN AND CLEAR OVER WASHINGTON THIS
AM...WITH CLEARING WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON TODAY.
WITH COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...WILL SEE PATCHY FOG UNTIL
18Z...MAINLY IN S WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY IN THE COWLITZ
LOWLANDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MID CLOUDS CLEARING BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z TODAY. WILL SEE EAST WINDS PICK UP A BIT AFTER 18Z...BUT
GENERALLY IN 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. NO CHANGE TONIGHT WITH VFR AND DRY
EAST WINDS.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES OVER THE S OREGON WATERS WILL PUSH INTO N CALIF
TODAY. GRADIENT TURNING MORE N TO NE ACROSS THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES ON THE WATERS
BEYOND 10 MILES. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAID
WINDS. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS IN COASTAL GAPS TODAY... BUT SUSPECT WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT MANY WITH OVERALL WINDS REMAINING 10 TO 20 KT. WILL
LEAVE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS CLEAR OF ANY ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
WINDS GUSTS WILL EASE BACK TONIGHT AS TIGHTEST GRADIENT SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE S OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PAC MON AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING A
MOSTLY N TO NW WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
PATTERN THIS WEEK...WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TODAY ON OUTER COASTAL
       WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
       TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM TODAY FOR WATERS
       FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR WATERS
       FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 280443 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SUGGESTED THE UPPER LOW WAS
SLOWLY MOVING S OVER WESTERN OREGON...PROBABLY IN THE VICINITY OF
LINN COUNTY. RADAR ECHOES...WHILE STILL SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF
OREOGN AND WESTERN WA...HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NW OREGON AND WESTERN WA. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S OVERNIGHT AND WITH DRYING KICKING IN WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S. SNOWFALL RATES AT THE SNOWTEL SITES
IN THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE BEEN RATHER
MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HOURS...AND GENERALLY
LIMITED TO 5K FT AND ABOVE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH ACROSS THE
S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN LANE COUNTY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS TO WHERE IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE
WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TRENDING TOWARDS PREDOMINANTLY VFR TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGEST AT
KONP...KEUG AND KSLE SO MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TEMPORARILY IN THE SHORT TERM AND POSSIBLY
LAST THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 15Z SATURDAY. 10 TO 20 KT NORTH TO EAST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENSURE ALL LOCATIONS TURN VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE INNER WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE THESE HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED...PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST INNER WATERS.

EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TEMPORARILY INCREASE AGAIN. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS MAY BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 280443 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SUGGESTED THE UPPER LOW WAS
SLOWLY MOVING S OVER WESTERN OREGON...PROBABLY IN THE VICINITY OF
LINN COUNTY. RADAR ECHOES...WHILE STILL SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF
OREOGN AND WESTERN WA...HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NW OREGON AND WESTERN WA. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S OVERNIGHT AND WITH DRYING KICKING IN WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S. SNOWFALL RATES AT THE SNOWTEL SITES
IN THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE BEEN RATHER
MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HOURS...AND GENERALLY
LIMITED TO 5K FT AND ABOVE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH ACROSS THE
S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN LANE COUNTY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS TO WHERE IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE
WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TRENDING TOWARDS PREDOMINANTLY VFR TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGEST AT
KONP...KEUG AND KSLE SO MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TEMPORARILY IN THE SHORT TERM AND POSSIBLY
LAST THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 15Z SATURDAY. 10 TO 20 KT NORTH TO EAST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENSURE ALL LOCATIONS TURN VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE INNER WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE THESE HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED...PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST INNER WATERS.

EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TEMPORARILY INCREASE AGAIN. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS MAY BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280439
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SUGGESTED THE UPPER LOW WAS
SLOWLY MOVING S OVER WESTERN OREGON...PROBABLY IN THE VICINITY OF
LINN COUNTY. RADAR ECHOES...WHILE STILL SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF
OREOGN AND WESTERN WA...HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NW OREGON AND WESTERN WA. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S OVERNIGHT AND WITH DRYING KICKING IN WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S. SNOWFALL RATES AT THE SNOWTEL SITES
IN THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE BEEN RATHER
MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HOURS...AND GENERALLY
LIMITED TO 5K FT AND ABOVE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH ACROSS THE
S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN LANE COUNTY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS TO WHERE IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE
WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TRENDING TOWARDS PREDOMINANTLY VFR TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST
THROGUH 06Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGEST AT KONP...KEUG
AND KSLE SO MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SHORT TERM AND PERIST THROUGH 15Z SATRUDAY. EXPECT
A LOT OF 10 TO 20 KT NORTH TO EAST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE INNER WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE THESE HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT
OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED...PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST INNER WATERS.

EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINLY DOMINANT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND
SEAS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 280439
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SUGGESTED THE UPPER LOW WAS
SLOWLY MOVING S OVER WESTERN OREGON...PROBABLY IN THE VICINITY OF
LINN COUNTY. RADAR ECHOES...WHILE STILL SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF
OREOGN AND WESTERN WA...HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NW OREGON AND WESTERN WA. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S OVERNIGHT AND WITH DRYING KICKING IN WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S. SNOWFALL RATES AT THE SNOWTEL SITES
IN THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE BEEN RATHER
MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HOURS...AND GENERALLY
LIMITED TO 5K FT AND ABOVE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH ACROSS THE
S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN LANE COUNTY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS TO WHERE IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE
WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TRENDING TOWARDS PREDOMINANTLY VFR TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST
THROGUH 06Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGEST AT KONP...KEUG
AND KSLE SO MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SHORT TERM AND PERIST THROUGH 15Z SATRUDAY. EXPECT
A LOT OF 10 TO 20 KT NORTH TO EAST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE INNER WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE THESE HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT
OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED...PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST INNER WATERS.

EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINLY DOMINANT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND
SEAS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280439
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SUGGESTED THE UPPER LOW WAS
SLOWLY MOVING S OVER WESTERN OREGON...PROBABLY IN THE VICINITY OF
LINN COUNTY. RADAR ECHOES...WHILE STILL SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF
OREOGN AND WESTERN WA...HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NW OREGON AND WESTERN WA. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S OVERNIGHT AND WITH DRYING KICKING IN WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S. SNOWFALL RATES AT THE SNOWTEL SITES
IN THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE BEEN RATHER
MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HOURS...AND GENERALLY
LIMITED TO 5K FT AND ABOVE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH ACROSS THE
S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN LANE COUNTY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS TO WHERE IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE
WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TRENDING TOWARDS PREDOMINANTLY VFR TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST
THROGUH 06Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGEST AT KONP...KEUG
AND KSLE SO MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SHORT TERM AND PERIST THROUGH 15Z SATRUDAY. EXPECT
A LOT OF 10 TO 20 KT NORTH TO EAST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE INNER WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE THESE HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT
OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED...PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST INNER WATERS.

EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINLY DOMINANT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND
SEAS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 272224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SUNBREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL...AND MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS IN THE 5000 FT RANGE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL.

AREA WEBCAMS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS ARE LINGERING IN THE 4000-5000 FT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS ONLY BRIEFLY STICKING TO THE ROADS OVER
THE CASCADE PASSES WHEN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. SNOW
SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME STICKING AS TEMPERATURES START TO FALL
AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING BY THEN FOR THE S WA/N OR CASCADES...SO WE WILL LET THE
SNOW ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3 PM FOR THOSE ZONES. LANE COUNTY CASCADES
WILL REMAIN IN BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW A LITTLE LONGER...AND AS A
RESULT THE LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS HAVE ABOUT 0.25 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
QPF IN THE 00-06Z PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET...SO WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SNOW ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
RETURNS TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE
NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TO THE NORTH...AND INTO THE
LATE EVENING FOR AREAS IN LANE COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF THE LOW...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE...ALL BE IT LIGHT SO FAR...AND
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND INHIBIT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM MAY HOLD ON TO SOME MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE
COAST AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING THERE TOO.
GUSTY N-E WINDS EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE AIRPORTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLEARING TONIGHT. EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN BELOW 12 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST
WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING.  TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE A LOW IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS UNDER THE LOW WILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CALM WIND...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN. STILL EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
BEYOND 10 NM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM.

THE SEAS SHOULD BECOME LESS STEEP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WAVE PERIODS REMAIN AROUND 9 SECONDS AND THE SWELL
DECREASES TO 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE SEAS ARE STILL RATHER STEEP...BUT
THE STEEPNESS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE W-NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON OUT 10 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 272224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SUNBREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL...AND MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS IN THE 5000 FT RANGE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL.

AREA WEBCAMS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS ARE LINGERING IN THE 4000-5000 FT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS ONLY BRIEFLY STICKING TO THE ROADS OVER
THE CASCADE PASSES WHEN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. SNOW
SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME STICKING AS TEMPERATURES START TO FALL
AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING BY THEN FOR THE S WA/N OR CASCADES...SO WE WILL LET THE
SNOW ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3 PM FOR THOSE ZONES. LANE COUNTY CASCADES
WILL REMAIN IN BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW A LITTLE LONGER...AND AS A
RESULT THE LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS HAVE ABOUT 0.25 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
QPF IN THE 00-06Z PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET...SO WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SNOW ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
RETURNS TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE
NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TO THE NORTH...AND INTO THE
LATE EVENING FOR AREAS IN LANE COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF THE LOW...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE...ALL BE IT LIGHT SO FAR...AND
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND INHIBIT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM MAY HOLD ON TO SOME MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE
COAST AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING THERE TOO.
GUSTY N-E WINDS EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE AIRPORTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLEARING TONIGHT. EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN BELOW 12 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST
WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING.  TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE A LOW IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS UNDER THE LOW WILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CALM WIND...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN. STILL EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
BEYOND 10 NM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM.

THE SEAS SHOULD BECOME LESS STEEP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WAVE PERIODS REMAIN AROUND 9 SECONDS AND THE SWELL
DECREASES TO 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE SEAS ARE STILL RATHER STEEP...BUT
THE STEEPNESS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE W-NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON OUT 10 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 272224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SUNBREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL...AND MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS IN THE 5000 FT RANGE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL.

AREA WEBCAMS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS ARE LINGERING IN THE 4000-5000 FT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS ONLY BRIEFLY STICKING TO THE ROADS OVER
THE CASCADE PASSES WHEN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. SNOW
SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME STICKING AS TEMPERATURES START TO FALL
AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING BY THEN FOR THE S WA/N OR CASCADES...SO WE WILL LET THE
SNOW ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3 PM FOR THOSE ZONES. LANE COUNTY CASCADES
WILL REMAIN IN BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW A LITTLE LONGER...AND AS A
RESULT THE LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS HAVE ABOUT 0.25 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
QPF IN THE 00-06Z PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET...SO WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SNOW ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
RETURNS TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE
NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TO THE NORTH...AND INTO THE
LATE EVENING FOR AREAS IN LANE COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF THE LOW...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE...ALL BE IT LIGHT SO FAR...AND
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND INHIBIT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM MAY HOLD ON TO SOME MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE
COAST AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING THERE TOO.
GUSTY N-E WINDS EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE AIRPORTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLEARING TONIGHT. EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN BELOW 12 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST
WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING.  TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE A LOW IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS UNDER THE LOW WILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CALM WIND...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN. STILL EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
BEYOND 10 NM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM.

THE SEAS SHOULD BECOME LESS STEEP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WAVE PERIODS REMAIN AROUND 9 SECONDS AND THE SWELL
DECREASES TO 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE SEAS ARE STILL RATHER STEEP...BUT
THE STEEPNESS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE W-NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON OUT 10 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 272224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SUNBREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL...AND MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS IN THE 5000 FT RANGE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL.

AREA WEBCAMS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS ARE LINGERING IN THE 4000-5000 FT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS ONLY BRIEFLY STICKING TO THE ROADS OVER
THE CASCADE PASSES WHEN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. SNOW
SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME STICKING AS TEMPERATURES START TO FALL
AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING BY THEN FOR THE S WA/N OR CASCADES...SO WE WILL LET THE
SNOW ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3 PM FOR THOSE ZONES. LANE COUNTY CASCADES
WILL REMAIN IN BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW A LITTLE LONGER...AND AS A
RESULT THE LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS HAVE ABOUT 0.25 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
QPF IN THE 00-06Z PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET...SO WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SNOW ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
RETURNS TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE
NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TO THE NORTH...AND INTO THE
LATE EVENING FOR AREAS IN LANE COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF THE LOW...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE...ALL BE IT LIGHT SO FAR...AND
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND INHIBIT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM MAY HOLD ON TO SOME MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE
COAST AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING THERE TOO.
GUSTY N-E WINDS EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE AIRPORTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLEARING TONIGHT. EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN BELOW 12 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST
WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING.  TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE A LOW IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS UNDER THE LOW WILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CALM WIND...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN. STILL EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
BEYOND 10 NM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM.

THE SEAS SHOULD BECOME LESS STEEP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WAVE PERIODS REMAIN AROUND 9 SECONDS AND THE SWELL
DECREASES TO 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE SEAS ARE STILL RATHER STEEP...BUT
THE STEEPNESS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE W-NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON OUT 10 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271959 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1159 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...BUT THE MAIN PASSES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY WET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
HEAVIER THAN OTHERS. ODOT WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS GOING OVER THE
PASSES...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE ROADSIDES. LOOKING AT
AREA SNOW REPORTS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FT HAVE
RECEIVED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT
TILLAMOOK AND FLORENCE...THEREFORE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD SEE
A BIT MORE ADDITIONAL SNOW THAN OUR MORE NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED QPF/SNOW TOTALS A BIT TO MATCH THINKING
MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL INTENSIFY
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY LIMIT RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
WITH FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STRAY LIGHTNING...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING THERE WILL
BE LATER THIS MORNING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE US COAST GUARD BAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THAT THE SEAS
ARE LARGER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT EBB...AND HAVE ISSUED A
SHORT-LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAR. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE
EXPECTED WITH BREAKERS UP TO 14 FEET UNTIL AROUND 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BACK TO 5 O 7 FEET UNTIL THE
NEXT EBB AROUND 1245 AM SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

PREVIOUS MARINE...A LOW MOVING ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
COAST TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF NW GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 25
KT...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM...THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE NE BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD
WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BEYOND 10 NM.

THE BUOYS SUGGEST SQUARE SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO INCLUDE THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WEST SWELL DECREASES IN HEIGHT. A W-NW 5 TO 7 FT SWELL SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 271959 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1159 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...BUT THE MAIN PASSES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY WET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
HEAVIER THAN OTHERS. ODOT WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS GOING OVER THE
PASSES...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE ROADSIDES. LOOKING AT
AREA SNOW REPORTS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FT HAVE
RECEIVED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT
TILLAMOOK AND FLORENCE...THEREFORE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD SEE
A BIT MORE ADDITIONAL SNOW THAN OUR MORE NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED QPF/SNOW TOTALS A BIT TO MATCH THINKING
MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL INTENSIFY
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY LIMIT RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
WITH FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STRAY LIGHTNING...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING THERE WILL
BE LATER THIS MORNING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE US COAST GUARD BAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THAT THE SEAS
ARE LARGER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT EBB...AND HAVE ISSUED A
SHORT-LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAR. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE
EXPECTED WITH BREAKERS UP TO 14 FEET UNTIL AROUND 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BACK TO 5 O 7 FEET UNTIL THE
NEXT EBB AROUND 1245 AM SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

PREVIOUS MARINE...A LOW MOVING ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
COAST TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF NW GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 25
KT...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM...THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE NE BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD
WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BEYOND 10 NM.

THE BUOYS SUGGEST SQUARE SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO INCLUDE THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WEST SWELL DECREASES IN HEIGHT. A W-NW 5 TO 7 FT SWELL SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271757
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...BUT THE MAIN PASSES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY WET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
HEAVIER THAN OTHERS. ODOT WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS GOING OVER THE
PASSES...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE ROADSIDES. LOOKING AT
AREA SNOW REPORTS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FT HAVE
RECEIVED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT
TILLAMOOK AND FLORENCE...THEREFORE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD SEE
A BIT MORE ADDITIONAL SNOW THAN OUR MORE NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED QPF/SNOW TOTALS A BIT TO MATCH THINKING
MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL INTENSIFY
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY LIMIT RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
WITH FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STRAY LIGHTNING...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING THERE WILL
BE LATER THIS MORNING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A LOW MOVING ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN COAST
TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF NW GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 25 KT...MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM...THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER
PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BEYOND 10 NM.

THE BUOYS SUGGEST SQUARE SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO INCLUDE THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WEST SWELL DECREASES IN HEIGHT. A W-NW 5 TO 7 FT SWELL SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271757
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...BUT THE MAIN PASSES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY WET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
HEAVIER THAN OTHERS. ODOT WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS GOING OVER THE
PASSES...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE ROADSIDES. LOOKING AT
AREA SNOW REPORTS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FT HAVE
RECEIVED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT
TILLAMOOK AND FLORENCE...THEREFORE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD SEE
A BIT MORE ADDITIONAL SNOW THAN OUR MORE NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED QPF/SNOW TOTALS A BIT TO MATCH THINKING
MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL INTENSIFY
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY LIMIT RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
WITH FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STRAY LIGHTNING...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING THERE WILL
BE LATER THIS MORNING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A LOW MOVING ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN COAST
TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF NW GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 25 KT...MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM...THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER
PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BEYOND 10 NM.

THE BUOYS SUGGEST SQUARE SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO INCLUDE THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WEST SWELL DECREASES IN HEIGHT. A W-NW 5 TO 7 FT SWELL SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 271757
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...BUT THE MAIN PASSES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY WET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
HEAVIER THAN OTHERS. ODOT WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS GOING OVER THE
PASSES...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE ROADSIDES. LOOKING AT
AREA SNOW REPORTS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FT HAVE
RECEIVED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT
TILLAMOOK AND FLORENCE...THEREFORE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD SEE
A BIT MORE ADDITIONAL SNOW THAN OUR MORE NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED QPF/SNOW TOTALS A BIT TO MATCH THINKING
MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL INTENSIFY
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY LIMIT RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
WITH FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STRAY LIGHTNING...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING THERE WILL
BE LATER THIS MORNING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A LOW MOVING ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN COAST
TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF NW GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 25 KT...MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM...THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER
PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BEYOND 10 NM.

THE BUOYS SUGGEST SQUARE SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO INCLUDE THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WEST SWELL DECREASES IN HEIGHT. A W-NW 5 TO 7 FT SWELL SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271757
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...BUT THE MAIN PASSES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY WET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
HEAVIER THAN OTHERS. ODOT WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS GOING OVER THE
PASSES...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE ROADSIDES. LOOKING AT
AREA SNOW REPORTS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FT HAVE
RECEIVED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT
TILLAMOOK AND FLORENCE...THEREFORE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD SEE
A BIT MORE ADDITIONAL SNOW THAN OUR MORE NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED QPF/SNOW TOTALS A BIT TO MATCH THINKING
MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL INTENSIFY
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY LIMIT RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
WITH FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STRAY LIGHTNING...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING THERE WILL
BE LATER THIS MORNING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A LOW MOVING ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN COAST
TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF NW GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 25 KT...MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM...THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER
PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BEYOND 10 NM.

THE BUOYS SUGGEST SQUARE SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO INCLUDE THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WEST SWELL DECREASES IN HEIGHT. A W-NW 5 TO 7 FT SWELL SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 271053
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES TODAY.
COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY
SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AND A
DECENT WIND SHIFT. THUS EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP
MVFR OR LOW END VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...BUT ANY THUNDER COULD BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW SOLID THE CLOUDS STAY TODAY. THE LOW STARTS TO
MOVE SOUTH LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...LIKELY MOVING PAST THE
AIRPORT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...
THOUGH CONCERNED THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS A BIT TOO
SOLID...INHIBITING DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH SOME EAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE AIRPORT BY EARLY SATURDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE HAVE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...INCLUDING THE INNER WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE WINDS
IN THE INNER WATERS MAY EASE BUT THE OUTER WATERS MAY KEEP GOING
THROUGH TODAY. THUS WILL JUST KEEP THE INNER WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH PART OF THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND REACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY...AND
STILL BE BRISK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHEAST WINDS AND EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL GAPS ON
SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TO 9 OR
POSSIBLY 10 FEET. PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TODAY FROM 10 OR 11
SECONDS TO 8 OR 9 SECONDS...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WELL. SEAS DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SEAS COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT AGAIN FROM THE INCREASING
NORTHERLIES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271053
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES TODAY.
COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY
SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AND A
DECENT WIND SHIFT. THUS EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP
MVFR OR LOW END VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...BUT ANY THUNDER COULD BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW SOLID THE CLOUDS STAY TODAY. THE LOW STARTS TO
MOVE SOUTH LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...LIKELY MOVING PAST THE
AIRPORT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...
THOUGH CONCERNED THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS A BIT TOO
SOLID...INHIBITING DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH SOME EAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE AIRPORT BY EARLY SATURDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE HAVE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...INCLUDING THE INNER WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE WINDS
IN THE INNER WATERS MAY EASE BUT THE OUTER WATERS MAY KEEP GOING
THROUGH TODAY. THUS WILL JUST KEEP THE INNER WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH PART OF THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND REACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY...AND
STILL BE BRISK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHEAST WINDS AND EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL GAPS ON
SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TO 9 OR
POSSIBLY 10 FEET. PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TODAY FROM 10 OR 11
SECONDS TO 8 OR 9 SECONDS...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WELL. SEAS DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SEAS COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT AGAIN FROM THE INCREASING
NORTHERLIES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 271053
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES TODAY.
COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY
SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AND A
DECENT WIND SHIFT. THUS EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP
MVFR OR LOW END VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...BUT ANY THUNDER COULD BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW SOLID THE CLOUDS STAY TODAY. THE LOW STARTS TO
MOVE SOUTH LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...LIKELY MOVING PAST THE
AIRPORT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...
THOUGH CONCERNED THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS A BIT TOO
SOLID...INHIBITING DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH SOME EAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE AIRPORT BY EARLY SATURDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE HAVE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...INCLUDING THE INNER WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE WINDS
IN THE INNER WATERS MAY EASE BUT THE OUTER WATERS MAY KEEP GOING
THROUGH TODAY. THUS WILL JUST KEEP THE INNER WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH PART OF THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND REACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY...AND
STILL BE BRISK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHEAST WINDS AND EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL GAPS ON
SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TO 9 OR
POSSIBLY 10 FEET. PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TODAY FROM 10 OR 11
SECONDS TO 8 OR 9 SECONDS...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WELL. SEAS DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SEAS COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT AGAIN FROM THE INCREASING
NORTHERLIES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270526
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
924 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL END
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLOSED OR NEARLY CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN VANCOUVER ISLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE 04Z. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTH AND LOCATION FOR
06Z. EARLIER CHECK OF CASCADE WEB CAMS INDICATED A GENERAL SNOW LEVEL
HOVERING JUST UNDER 5000 FEET. HOODOO SKI PARKING LOT...AT 4700
FT...WAS WET AT 02Z...BUT THE CAMERA SHOWED SOME WET FLAKES FALLING.
THE STICKING SNOW LINE LOOKED TO BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET HIGHER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT...AND THEN DOWN THE OREGON COAST FRI. A NWLY
UPPER JET WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT AND DYNAMICS AS THE LOW SAGS
SOUTHWARD. LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS A RESULT.  SNOW
LEVELS WILL START AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET...AND LOWER LATE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON THE OVERALL QPF...BUT BOTH SEEM TO AGREE THAT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRI. TOTAL
QPF LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET. AREAS FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET ARE LIKELY TO
GET UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FRI FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR THUNDER.
BELIEVE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
VERSUS THUNDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT AND BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS TIME...BUT 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOSE PLANNING
TO HEAD TO THE MOUNTAINS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECREATIONAL
ASPECTS OF THIS NEW SNOW SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW
COVERED ROADS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREATAGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON TONIGHT...KEEPING CIGS AND VIS ALONG THE COAST PRIMARILY
MVFR AND INLAND SITES A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO
DROP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR ALONG THE COAST...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 18Z. CIGS OVER INLAND SITES SHOULD
STAY PRIMARILY MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS PROBABLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR BY MID-MORNING.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EARLY
FRIDAY...SPREADING INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA OR -DZ. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR AROUND 15Z FRIDAY...THEN
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BY 18Z. AFTER 18Z...EXPECT CIGS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN VFR/MVFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
HEAVY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AT BUOY 29 THIS
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS EVENING IS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS IS INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND PEAK AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AS
WELL BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE 20 KTS...THOUGH A COUPLE
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD START TO WEAKEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WITH SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

CURRENTLY SEAS ARE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT AND ARE INCREASING THIS
EVENING. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 8 TO 9 FT FRIDAY MORNING AND
STAY AROUND 8 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
SWELL MOVING IN WITH PERIODS OF AROUND 8 FT FRIDAY WHICH COULD
CREATE SQUARE SEAS MIDDAY FRIDAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
SCA FOR THIS YET. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO 4 TO 5 FT BY SUNDAY
BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS COULD AGAIN
BUILD TO NEAR 10 FT WITH THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
BACK DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN
     LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 262213
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLE SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE FIRST MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO NW WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST
IS JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF OPEN-CELLED CUMULUS OVER THE NE PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS INDICATE THAT THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

LOW LAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
TROUGH AND UPPER JET...SLIDE SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET...AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+KT JET STREAK WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WILL POSITION NW OREGON UNDER THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LIFT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES WARRANTING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET WHERE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FT MAY MEASURE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SMALL HAIL
EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW AT AND BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW FALL RATES
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS TIME...BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOSE PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE
MOUNTAINS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECREATIONAL ASPECTS OF THIS NEW
SNOW SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW COVERED ROADS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE
CASCADES. TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST WILL BE MORE MODERATE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST
COAST. DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. TJ

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AND WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR INLAND AND IFR AT THE
COAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AND BRINGING
CIGS UP TO MVFR AT COASTAL SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT...THE THUNDER THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR VIS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA OR -DZ.
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT KEEP MVFR CIG WITH A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIG AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH WIND TO SPEAK OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH BUOY 29
REPORTING SW AT 4 KT. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY...BUT
THERE
IS ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONE MORE ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN/PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 262213
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLE SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE FIRST MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO NW WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST
IS JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF OPEN-CELLED CUMULUS OVER THE NE PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS INDICATE THAT THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

LOW LAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
TROUGH AND UPPER JET...SLIDE SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET...AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+KT JET STREAK WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WILL POSITION NW OREGON UNDER THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LIFT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES WARRANTING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET WHERE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FT MAY MEASURE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SMALL HAIL
EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW AT AND BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW FALL RATES
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS TIME...BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOSE PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE
MOUNTAINS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECREATIONAL ASPECTS OF THIS NEW
SNOW SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW COVERED ROADS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE
CASCADES. TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST WILL BE MORE MODERATE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST
COAST. DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. TJ

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AND WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR INLAND AND IFR AT THE
COAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AND BRINGING
CIGS UP TO MVFR AT COASTAL SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT...THE THUNDER THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR VIS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA OR -DZ.
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT KEEP MVFR CIG WITH A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIG AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH WIND TO SPEAK OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH BUOY 29
REPORTING SW AT 4 KT. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY...BUT
THERE
IS ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONE MORE ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN/PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 262213
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLE SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE FIRST MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO NW WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST
IS JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF OPEN-CELLED CUMULUS OVER THE NE PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS INDICATE THAT THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

LOW LAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
TROUGH AND UPPER JET...SLIDE SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET...AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+KT JET STREAK WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WILL POSITION NW OREGON UNDER THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LIFT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES WARRANTING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET WHERE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FT MAY MEASURE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SMALL HAIL
EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW AT AND BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW FALL RATES
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS TIME...BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOSE PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE
MOUNTAINS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECREATIONAL ASPECTS OF THIS NEW
SNOW SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW COVERED ROADS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE
CASCADES. TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST WILL BE MORE MODERATE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST
COAST. DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. TJ

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AND WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR INLAND AND IFR AT THE
COAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AND BRINGING
CIGS UP TO MVFR AT COASTAL SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT...THE THUNDER THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR VIS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA OR -DZ.
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT KEEP MVFR CIG WITH A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIG AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH WIND TO SPEAK OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH BUOY 29
REPORTING SW AT 4 KT. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY...BUT
THERE
IS ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONE MORE ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN/PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261701
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CASCADES GOT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
ODOT REPORTED AN INCH AT SANTIAM PASS...WHICH IS AROUND 4800 FEET.
WEB CAMERAS SHOW RAIN AT SANTIAM PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THE
SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 4800 FEET FOR THE NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WHICH IS LINE WITH THIS MORNING`S FORECAST.

LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A COOLER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND ADDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA
IN COOL NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03
INCHES PER 3 HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB
CAMS.  ODOT WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY THAT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH IFR/MVFR AT
THE COAST AND PATCHES OF IFR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE A MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES
OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY
EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL VIS WITH -RA OR DZ
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR THIS MORNING. BOWEN/PT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 261701
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CASCADES GOT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
ODOT REPORTED AN INCH AT SANTIAM PASS...WHICH IS AROUND 4800 FEET.
WEB CAMERAS SHOW RAIN AT SANTIAM PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THE
SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 4800 FEET FOR THE NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WHICH IS LINE WITH THIS MORNING`S FORECAST.

LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A COOLER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND ADDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA
IN COOL NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03
INCHES PER 3 HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB
CAMS.  ODOT WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY THAT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH IFR/MVFR AT
THE COAST AND PATCHES OF IFR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE A MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES
OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY
EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL VIS WITH -RA OR DZ
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR THIS MORNING. BOWEN/PT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA IN COOL
NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03 INCHES PER 3
HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB CAMS.  ODOT
WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON MUCH OF TODAY
THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW PATCHES OF IFR THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE THE MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD CROSSING 130W THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD IN DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MVFR THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR AS THE NEXT CLOUD
SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
     4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 261109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA IN COOL
NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03 INCHES PER 3
HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB CAMS.  ODOT
WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON MUCH OF TODAY
THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW PATCHES OF IFR THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE THE MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD CROSSING 130W THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD IN DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MVFR THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR AS THE NEXT CLOUD
SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
     4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA IN COOL
NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03 INCHES PER 3
HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB CAMS.  ODOT
WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON MUCH OF TODAY
THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW PATCHES OF IFR THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE THE MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD CROSSING 130W THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD IN DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MVFR THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR AS THE NEXT CLOUD
SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
     4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
800 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...INITAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RANDAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST A SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE S LATER TONIGHT. THIS FITS WITH THE FORECAST OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLIPPING A LITTLE FURTHER S...AS WELL AS THE DEPICTED MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K ISENTROPE. MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BOOST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POTENITIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
CASCADES.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS DECREASING RETURNS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS
THEN NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...THEN INCREASING MVFR INLAND
THEREAFTER. COAST LIKELY TO SEE AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THU MORNING. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND AFTER 16Z
THU...WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THU AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN
LOWERING TO MVFR. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR THU MORNING.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THU NIGHT. GENERAL SW-W WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT...BUT WILL
SHIFT TO NW THU MORNING. LATEST NAM MODEL RUN SHOWS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 54N 135W 12Z THU THEN SLIDING SWD THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND BACKING TO THE S OVER MUCH OF THE
WATERS...BUT MORE WLY IN THE FAR SRN WATERS. NWLY WIND SPREADS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THU NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...THEN INTO NEARLY ALL WATERS BY FRI MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF 25 KT GUSTS LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...BUT N TO NE WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE S WATERS SAT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON
MON AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. SEAS LOOK TO
STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
800 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...INITAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RANDAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST A SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE S LATER TONIGHT. THIS FITS WITH THE FORECAST OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLIPPING A LITTLE FURTHER S...AS WELL AS THE DEPICTED MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K ISENTROPE. MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BOOST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POTENITIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
CASCADES.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS DECREASING RETURNS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS
THEN NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...THEN INCREASING MVFR INLAND
THEREAFTER. COAST LIKELY TO SEE AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THU MORNING. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND AFTER 16Z
THU...WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THU AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN
LOWERING TO MVFR. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR THU MORNING.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THU NIGHT. GENERAL SW-W WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT...BUT WILL
SHIFT TO NW THU MORNING. LATEST NAM MODEL RUN SHOWS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 54N 135W 12Z THU THEN SLIDING SWD THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND BACKING TO THE S OVER MUCH OF THE
WATERS...BUT MORE WLY IN THE FAR SRN WATERS. NWLY WIND SPREADS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THU NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...THEN INTO NEARLY ALL WATERS BY FRI MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF 25 KT GUSTS LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...BUT N TO NE WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE S WATERS SAT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON
MON AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. SEAS LOOK TO
STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 260408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
800 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...INITAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RANDAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST A SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE S LATER TONIGHT. THIS FITS WITH THE FORECAST OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLIPPING A LITTLE FURTHER S...AS WELL AS THE DEPICTED MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K ISENTROPE. MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BOOST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POTENITIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
CASCADES.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS DECREASING RETURNS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS
THEN NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...THEN INCREASING MVFR INLAND
THEREAFTER. COAST LIKELY TO SEE AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THU MORNING. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND AFTER 16Z
THU...WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THU AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN
LOWERING TO MVFR. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR THU MORNING.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THU NIGHT. GENERAL SW-W WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT...BUT WILL
SHIFT TO NW THU MORNING. LATEST NAM MODEL RUN SHOWS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 54N 135W 12Z THU THEN SLIDING SWD THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND BACKING TO THE S OVER MUCH OF THE
WATERS...BUT MORE WLY IN THE FAR SRN WATERS. NWLY WIND SPREADS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THU NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...THEN INTO NEARLY ALL WATERS BY FRI MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF 25 KT GUSTS LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...BUT N TO NE WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE S WATERS SAT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON
MON AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. SEAS LOOK TO
STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
800 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...INITAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RANDAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST A SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE S LATER TONIGHT. THIS FITS WITH THE FORECAST OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLIPPING A LITTLE FURTHER S...AS WELL AS THE DEPICTED MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K ISENTROPE. MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BOOST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POTENITIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
CASCADES.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS DECREASING RETURNS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS
THEN NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...THEN INCREASING MVFR INLAND
THEREAFTER. COAST LIKELY TO SEE AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THU MORNING. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND AFTER 16Z
THU...WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THU AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN
LOWERING TO MVFR. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR THU MORNING.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THU NIGHT. GENERAL SW-W WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT...BUT WILL
SHIFT TO NW THU MORNING. LATEST NAM MODEL RUN SHOWS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 54N 135W 12Z THU THEN SLIDING SWD THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND BACKING TO THE S OVER MUCH OF THE
WATERS...BUT MORE WLY IN THE FAR SRN WATERS. NWLY WIND SPREADS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THU NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...THEN INTO NEARLY ALL WATERS BY FRI MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF 25 KT GUSTS LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...BUT N TO NE WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE S WATERS SAT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON
MON AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. SEAS LOOK TO
STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 252211
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
210 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FEET AND
EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES. OTHERWISE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOW LANDS AND
AROUND 0.25 FOR THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THE MORE
STEADY RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT...IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR
THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD
AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING
THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY
SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. A LARGER AREA
OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAY
DROP COASTAL CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY TO IFR AS WELL AS MOVE MVFR
CIGS INLAND THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH AROUND 04Z THU WHEN
CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NW WIND AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON PER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. RADAR SHOWS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS SW BEFORE THEY
RETURN TO NW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NE PAC THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL LOW ALONG THE N CAL AND
S OREGON COAST. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...NLY GUSTS TO 25 KT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL
QUITE LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. SEAS LOOK
TO STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252211
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
210 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FEET AND
EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES. OTHERWISE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOW LANDS AND
AROUND 0.25 FOR THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THE MORE
STEADY RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT...IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR
THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD
AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING
THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY
SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. A LARGER AREA
OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAY
DROP COASTAL CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY TO IFR AS WELL AS MOVE MVFR
CIGS INLAND THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH AROUND 04Z THU WHEN
CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NW WIND AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON PER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. RADAR SHOWS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS SW BEFORE THEY
RETURN TO NW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NE PAC THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL LOW ALONG THE N CAL AND
S OREGON COAST. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...NLY GUSTS TO 25 KT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL
QUITE LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. SEAS LOOK
TO STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 252211
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
210 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FEET AND
EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES. OTHERWISE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOW LANDS AND
AROUND 0.25 FOR THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THE MORE
STEADY RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT...IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR
THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD
AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING
THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY
SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. A LARGER AREA
OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAY
DROP COASTAL CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY TO IFR AS WELL AS MOVE MVFR
CIGS INLAND THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH AROUND 04Z THU WHEN
CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NW WIND AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON PER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. RADAR SHOWS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS SW BEFORE THEY
RETURN TO NW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NE PAC THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL LOW ALONG THE N CAL AND
S OREGON COAST. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...NLY GUSTS TO 25 KT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL
QUITE LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. SEAS LOOK
TO STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 251704
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
904 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS WITH AN
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...MAINLY TO THE NORTH TODAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. DRIER
WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER COOL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT DRY WEATHER IS SHIFTING EASTWARD.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM THIS MORNING AS THE TAIL END
OF A WEAK WARM FRONT BRUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...EUGENE AND SOUTHWARD MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 0.10 INCH NORTH OF MCMINNVILLE AND LESS THAN 0.05 INCH
SOUTH OF SALEM.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES...EUGENE AND SOUTHWARD. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW FOR THE LOW LANDS...BUT OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS...AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH...FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500
FEET AND EXPECT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES...FOR THE
CASCADES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF INTEREST DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING WITH EFFECTS LASTING IN
TO SATURDAY. ITS ACTUALLY A HYBRID OF A THIRD FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE
PHASING IN WITH A DEVELOPING LOW DIVING SOUTH FROM ALONG THE BC
COAST. THIS FURTHER COMPLICATES THE QPF AND THUS SNOW ACCUMULATION
DETAILS AS THE EXACT TIMING OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL LARGELY
DETERMINE JUST HOW FAST THE STRONGER WAVE FROM THE NORTH LANDS OVER
THE AREA PLUS JUST HOW MUCH OF AN OVER WATER TRAJECTORY IT TAKES.

THE DIFFERENCES IN QPF FROM THE EC AND THE GFS CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO
PLAY OUT THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. BOTH MODELS SHOW COMMONALITY IN
THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD WHERE RATES ARE HEAVIEST BUT
AGAIN AMOUNTS ARE STRIKINGLY DIFFERENT. FOR THE 6 HOURS ENDING 11 AM
FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS ABOUT A HALF INCH OF QPF OVER THE NORTH CASCADES
WHILE THE EC ONLY HAS ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH. THAT 6 HOUR PERIOD
COULD BE THE MAKE OR BREAK INFORMATION TO DETERMINE THE NEED FOR A
SNOW ADVISORY.

HOPEFULLY THE UPCOMING 12Z RUNS WILL MAKE THE DECISION EASIER BUT
EXPECT THEY WILL NOT GIVEN HOW VOLATILE MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH
HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 6 DAYS. REGARDLESS...DO
EXPECT THE PASSES WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS FAR MORE OFTEN THAN NOT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHIFT
TO THE CENT4RAL CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN
THE WAY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LOW AREA MAY OR MAY NOT CLOSE
OFF OVER US ON FRIDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS LEAVES DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND SNOW
LEVELS BRIEFLY BOTTOMING OUT TO 2500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING UNDER
LINGERING SHOWERS. TJ/JBONK

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...NO CHANGES MADE PAST
SATURDAY WITH THE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAINING FROM THE 00Z/06Z
RUNS WITH REGARD TO MONDAYS SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNDER
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SO MIGHT BE A GOOD
TIME TO GET OUT AND ENJOY WHATEVER SNOW THE SKI RESORTS RECEIVED. A
SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE ON
SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE CONCERNING THE
MONDAY SYSTEM. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE SYSTEM IN AND OUT OF OUR
AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT LINGERING JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST
BEFORE CUTTING IT OFF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. JBONK/27

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING
IN A NW ONSHORE MARINE PUSH. ON THE COAST CIGS GENERALLY AROUND
1500-2500 FT. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGING OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CAUSING IFR CIGS OR VISIBILITIES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTH COAST NEAR KAST. INLAND...MVFR
CIGS HAVE GENERALLY LIFTED TO VFR...HOWEVER CIGS SHOULD LOWER
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF
ONSHORE FLOW ARRIVES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z THU WHEN
CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER TO NEAR 2000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...FORECAST ON TRACK TODAY WITH W SWELL 3 TO 4 FT AND WIND
WAVE AROUND 3 FEET. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT TODAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CONDITIONS OVERALL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NO UPDATES NECESSARY. BOWEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WIND MOSTLY UNDER 10 KT PER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. ASCAT SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FROM 05Z INDICATE A
WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS FITS WELL WITH
GUIDANCE. A SERIES OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NE PAC THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL LOW
ALONG THE N CAL AND S OREGON COAST. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...NLY GUSTS
TO 25 KT WOULD BE POSSIBLE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS STILL QUITE LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.
SEAS LOOK TO STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. WEISHAAR/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 251704
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
904 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS WITH AN
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...MAINLY TO THE NORTH TODAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. DRIER
WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER COOL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT DRY WEATHER IS SHIFTING EASTWARD.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM THIS MORNING AS THE TAIL END
OF A WEAK WARM FRONT BRUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...EUGENE AND SOUTHWARD MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 0.10 INCH NORTH OF MCMINNVILLE AND LESS THAN 0.05 INCH
SOUTH OF SALEM.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES...EUGENE AND SOUTHWARD. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW FOR THE LOW LANDS...BUT OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS...AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH...FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500
FEET AND EXPECT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES...FOR THE
CASCADES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF INTEREST DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING WITH EFFECTS LASTING IN
TO SATURDAY. ITS ACTUALLY A HYBRID OF A THIRD FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE
PHASING IN WITH A DEVELOPING LOW DIVING SOUTH FROM ALONG THE BC
COAST. THIS FURTHER COMPLICATES THE QPF AND THUS SNOW ACCUMULATION
DETAILS AS THE EXACT TIMING OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL LARGELY
DETERMINE JUST HOW FAST THE STRONGER WAVE FROM THE NORTH LANDS OVER
THE AREA PLUS JUST HOW MUCH OF AN OVER WATER TRAJECTORY IT TAKES.

THE DIFFERENCES IN QPF FROM THE EC AND THE GFS CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO
PLAY OUT THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. BOTH MODELS SHOW COMMONALITY IN
THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD WHERE RATES ARE HEAVIEST BUT
AGAIN AMOUNTS ARE STRIKINGLY DIFFERENT. FOR THE 6 HOURS ENDING 11 AM
FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS ABOUT A HALF INCH OF QPF OVER THE NORTH CASCADES
WHILE THE EC ONLY HAS ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH. THAT 6 HOUR PERIOD
COULD BE THE MAKE OR BREAK INFORMATION TO DETERMINE THE NEED FOR A
SNOW ADVISORY.

HOPEFULLY THE UPCOMING 12Z RUNS WILL MAKE THE DECISION EASIER BUT
EXPECT THEY WILL NOT GIVEN HOW VOLATILE MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH
HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 6 DAYS. REGARDLESS...DO
EXPECT THE PASSES WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS FAR MORE OFTEN THAN NOT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHIFT
TO THE CENT4RAL CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN
THE WAY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LOW AREA MAY OR MAY NOT CLOSE
OFF OVER US ON FRIDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS LEAVES DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND SNOW
LEVELS BRIEFLY BOTTOMING OUT TO 2500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING UNDER
LINGERING SHOWERS. TJ/JBONK

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...NO CHANGES MADE PAST
SATURDAY WITH THE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAINING FROM THE 00Z/06Z
RUNS WITH REGARD TO MONDAYS SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNDER
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SO MIGHT BE A GOOD
TIME TO GET OUT AND ENJOY WHATEVER SNOW THE SKI RESORTS RECEIVED. A
SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE ON
SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE CONCERNING THE
MONDAY SYSTEM. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE SYSTEM IN AND OUT OF OUR
AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT LINGERING JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST
BEFORE CUTTING IT OFF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. JBONK/27

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING
IN A NW ONSHORE MARINE PUSH. ON THE COAST CIGS GENERALLY AROUND
1500-2500 FT. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGING OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CAUSING IFR CIGS OR VISIBILITIES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTH COAST NEAR KAST. INLAND...MVFR
CIGS HAVE GENERALLY LIFTED TO VFR...HOWEVER CIGS SHOULD LOWER
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF
ONSHORE FLOW ARRIVES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z THU WHEN
CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER TO NEAR 2000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...FORECAST ON TRACK TODAY WITH W SWELL 3 TO 4 FT AND WIND
WAVE AROUND 3 FEET. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT TODAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CONDITIONS OVERALL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NO UPDATES NECESSARY. BOWEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WIND MOSTLY UNDER 10 KT PER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. ASCAT SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FROM 05Z INDICATE A
WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS FITS WELL WITH
GUIDANCE. A SERIES OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NE PAC THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL LOW
ALONG THE N CAL AND S OREGON COAST. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...NLY GUSTS
TO 25 KT WOULD BE POSSIBLE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS STILL QUITE LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.
SEAS LOOK TO STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. WEISHAAR/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




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