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000
FXUS66 KPQR 201548
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
848 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...QUIET CONDITIONS ON AN SPEGG-TACULAR SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. COOL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ABOUT. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
AND READINGS INTO THE MID 60S SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE WITH A DRY
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD. MINIMAL COSMETIC CHANGES TO
GRIDS THIS MORNING FOR SKY COVER/TEMP TRENDS.

LARGEST IMPACT TODAY IS THE HIGH SURF STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE WATERS WITH LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 18-20 FT . EXPECT HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO EASE
LATE IN THE DAY. EXERCISE CAUTION IF HEADED TO THE BEACHES TODAY. KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING IT LOOKED LIKE THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH WERE COMING TO AN END
OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP TO THE WA COAST APPEARS TO
LACK MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING SO WILL DROP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THE S WA COAST.

NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...SO INITIALLY
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO REACH THE COAST WITH MUCH OF THE
BEST DYNAMICS HEADED S. FLOW HOWEVER BACKS TO THE SSW ALOFT MON
BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS MON AND MON
NIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT BAND FINALLY PUSHES INLAND AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY REACHES THE COAST. AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AS H8 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
SCT-BKN LAYER BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT DEVELOPED NORTH OF KPDX-KTMK
LINE WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. KEUG THE ONLY TAF SITE WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 17Z- 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECAST IS RUNNING ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE
OBSERVATIONS SO HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR
TODAY AND ADDED A FEW MORE HOURS TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT
TONIGHT...AND TO 10 FT TUE MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WIND OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.   CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..





000
FXUS66 KPQR 201548
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
848 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...QUIET CONDITIONS ON AN SPEGG-TACULAR SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. COOL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ABOUT. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
AND READINGS INTO THE MID 60S SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE WITH A DRY
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD. MINIMAL COSMETIC CHANGES TO
GRIDS THIS MORNING FOR SKY COVER/TEMP TRENDS.

LARGEST IMPACT TODAY IS THE HIGH SURF STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE WATERS WITH LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 18-20 FT . EXPECT HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO EASE
LATE IN THE DAY. EXERCISE CAUTION IF HEADED TO THE BEACHES TODAY. KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING IT LOOKED LIKE THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH WERE COMING TO AN END
OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP TO THE WA COAST APPEARS TO
LACK MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING SO WILL DROP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THE S WA COAST.

NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...SO INITIALLY
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO REACH THE COAST WITH MUCH OF THE
BEST DYNAMICS HEADED S. FLOW HOWEVER BACKS TO THE SSW ALOFT MON
BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS MON AND MON
NIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT BAND FINALLY PUSHES INLAND AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY REACHES THE COAST. AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AS H8 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
SCT-BKN LAYER BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT DEVELOPED NORTH OF KPDX-KTMK
LINE WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. KEUG THE ONLY TAF SITE WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 17Z- 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECAST IS RUNNING ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE
OBSERVATIONS SO HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR
TODAY AND ADDED A FEW MORE HOURS TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT
TONIGHT...AND TO 10 FT TUE MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WIND OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.   CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
233 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING IT LOOKED LIKE THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH WERE COMING TO AN END
OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP TO THE WA COAST APPEARS TO
LACK MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING SO WILL DROP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THE S WA COAST.

NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...SO INITIALLY
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO REACH THE COAST WITH MUCH OF THE
BEST DYNAMICS HEADED S. FLOW HOWEVER BACKS TO THE SSW ALOFT MON
BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS MON AND MON
NIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT BAND FINALLY PUSHES INLAND AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY REACHES THE COAST. AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AS H8 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALONG THE COAST...PERSISTENT SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
2000-3000 FT HAVE OCCASIONALLY FORMED A BROKEN DECK. EXPECT PERIODIC
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVER
THE INTERIOR...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW STRATUS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AND DISSIPATE
AROUND 18Z GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. SOME PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...WITH CHANCE FOR MVFR THROUGH
17Z-18Z. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...THE LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN REACHED THE OUTER WATERS
AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT AS EXPECTED...BRINGING RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. BUOY 46089 PEAKED 24 FT AT 16 SECONDS
AND REMAINS NEAR 22 FT. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS...AS BUOY 46029 HAS REACHED 20 FT AND 46050 HAS REACHED 22
FT AT THIS HOUR. STILL EXPECT THE PEAK BETWEEN NOW AND 6 AM THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT TONIGHT...AND TO 10 FT TUE
MORNING. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N
OREGON...AND CENTRAL OREGON COASTS CONTINUES THROUGH 10 AM TODAY.
NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR THE SURF ZONE TODAY.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WIND OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.   CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 AM
     PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..





000
FXUS66 KPQR 200933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
233 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING IT LOOKED LIKE THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH WERE COMING TO AN END
OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP TO THE WA COAST APPEARS TO
LACK MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING SO WILL DROP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THE S WA COAST.

NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...SO INITIALLY
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO REACH THE COAST WITH MUCH OF THE
BEST DYNAMICS HEADED S. FLOW HOWEVER BACKS TO THE SSW ALOFT MON
BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS MON AND MON
NIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT BAND FINALLY PUSHES INLAND AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY REACHES THE COAST. AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AS H8 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALONG THE COAST...PERSISTENT SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
2000-3000 FT HAVE OCCASIONALLY FORMED A BROKEN DECK. EXPECT PERIODIC
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVER
THE INTERIOR...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW STRATUS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AND DISSIPATE
AROUND 18Z GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. SOME PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...WITH CHANCE FOR MVFR THROUGH
17Z-18Z. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...THE LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN REACHED THE OUTER WATERS
AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT AS EXPECTED...BRINGING RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. BUOY 46089 PEAKED 24 FT AT 16 SECONDS
AND REMAINS NEAR 22 FT. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS...AS BUOY 46029 HAS REACHED 20 FT AND 46050 HAS REACHED 22
FT AT THIS HOUR. STILL EXPECT THE PEAK BETWEEN NOW AND 6 AM THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT TONIGHT...AND TO 10 FT TUE
MORNING. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N
OREGON...AND CENTRAL OREGON COASTS CONTINUES THROUGH 10 AM TODAY.
NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR THE SURF ZONE TODAY.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WIND OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.   CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 AM
     PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
846 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT.
EAST . WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY DIGS
TOWARD CALIFORNIA...THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE
RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED
AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING AS EXPECTED...AND CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN COLD FRONT HAS
CLEARED AND NOW ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY STREAM OF POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS. SATELLITE DEPICTS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS
OFFSHORE WORKING ITS WAY THIS DIRECTION AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS
THE MOIST FLOW HITS LAND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODESTLY
STEEP. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS ALREADY NOSING INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR FLORENCE AND
NEWPORT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...BUT THE LOWEST
LEVELS STABILIZE ENOUGH TO MENTION PATCHY FOG...FAVORED MOST FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS AND THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU
HEAD INTO THE VALLEY.

FLAT RIDGING TONIGHT AMPLIFIES SOME ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITHWARMER TEMPS AFTER
THE COOL START. MID TO UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH IN AHEAD OF A COMPACT
CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 46N/145W AT THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
LOW. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HEAD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SA THIS IS HAPPENING
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN A PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA...BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES TO SOME DEGREE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AIR MASS AT BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS
DIGGING THE TROUGH S PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON
TO CHANCE CATEGORY INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.

SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS
COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
MOST ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND THE
PASSESMID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. NORMALLY -28C TO POSSIBLY COOLER AT 500 TEMPS BRINGS
CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN FORCING PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A THUNDER MENTION YET...BUT CAN SEE IT BEING
ADDED A FUTURE TIME. /KMD

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. INCREASING STABLE CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EARLY SUN
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. AFTER 12Z SUN MODEL RH
FIELDS AND SOUNDING SUGGEST A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FT COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AREA. IF IT DOES FORM THE LAYER WOULD DISSIPATE BY
18Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING. A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK SYSTEM NEARING THE WATERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING SMALL
CRAFT WINDS.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUN. ENP WAVE
MODEL IS DOING WELL BASED ON COMPARISON WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS.
BUOY 46089 WAS 16 FT AT 15 SECONDS AS OF 03Z THIS EVENING...ON
TRACK TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN THE
SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT...AND PEAKING AROUND MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT
EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
COASTS. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 6 PM AND
10 PM AND LIKELY PEAK NEAR 20 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR
THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT PDT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
846 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT.
EAST . WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY DIGS
TOWARD CALIFORNIA...THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE
RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED
AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING AS EXPECTED...AND CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN COLD FRONT HAS
CLEARED AND NOW ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY STREAM OF POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS. SATELLITE DEPICTS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS
OFFSHORE WORKING ITS WAY THIS DIRECTION AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS
THE MOIST FLOW HITS LAND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODESTLY
STEEP. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS ALREADY NOSING INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR FLORENCE AND
NEWPORT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...BUT THE LOWEST
LEVELS STABILIZE ENOUGH TO MENTION PATCHY FOG...FAVORED MOST FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS AND THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU
HEAD INTO THE VALLEY.

FLAT RIDGING TONIGHT AMPLIFIES SOME ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITHWARMER TEMPS AFTER
THE COOL START. MID TO UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH IN AHEAD OF A COMPACT
CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 46N/145W AT THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
LOW. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HEAD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SA THIS IS HAPPENING
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN A PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA...BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES TO SOME DEGREE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AIR MASS AT BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS
DIGGING THE TROUGH S PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON
TO CHANCE CATEGORY INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.

SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS
COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
MOST ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND THE
PASSESMID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. NORMALLY -28C TO POSSIBLY COOLER AT 500 TEMPS BRINGS
CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN FORCING PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A THUNDER MENTION YET...BUT CAN SEE IT BEING
ADDED A FUTURE TIME. /KMD

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. INCREASING STABLE CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EARLY SUN
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. AFTER 12Z SUN MODEL RH
FIELDS AND SOUNDING SUGGEST A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FT COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AREA. IF IT DOES FORM THE LAYER WOULD DISSIPATE BY
18Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING. A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK SYSTEM NEARING THE WATERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING SMALL
CRAFT WINDS.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUN. ENP WAVE
MODEL IS DOING WELL BASED ON COMPARISON WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS.
BUOY 46089 WAS 16 FT AT 15 SECONDS AS OF 03Z THIS EVENING...ON
TRACK TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN THE
SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT...AND PEAKING AROUND MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT
EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
COASTS. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 6 PM AND
10 PM AND LIKELY PEAK NEAR 20 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR
THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT PDT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
846 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT.
EAST . WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY DIGS
TOWARD CALIFORNIA...THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE
RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED
AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING AS EXPECTED...AND CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN COLD FRONT HAS
CLEARED AND NOW ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY STREAM OF POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS. SATELLITE DEPICTS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS
OFFSHORE WORKING ITS WAY THIS DIRECTION AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS
THE MOIST FLOW HITS LAND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODESTLY
STEEP. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS ALREADY NOSING INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR FLORENCE AND
NEWPORT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...BUT THE LOWEST
LEVELS STABILIZE ENOUGH TO MENTION PATCHY FOG...FAVORED MOST FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS AND THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU
HEAD INTO THE VALLEY.

FLAT RIDGING TONIGHT AMPLIFIES SOME ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITHWARMER TEMPS AFTER
THE COOL START. MID TO UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH IN AHEAD OF A COMPACT
CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 46N/145W AT THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
LOW. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HEAD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SA THIS IS HAPPENING
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN A PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA...BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES TO SOME DEGREE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AIR MASS AT BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS
DIGGING THE TROUGH S PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON
TO CHANCE CATEGORY INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.

SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS
COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
MOST ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND THE
PASSESMID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. NORMALLY -28C TO POSSIBLY COOLER AT 500 TEMPS BRINGS
CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN FORCING PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A THUNDER MENTION YET...BUT CAN SEE IT BEING
ADDED A FUTURE TIME. /KMD

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. INCREASING STABLE CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EARLY SUN
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. AFTER 12Z SUN MODEL RH
FIELDS AND SOUNDING SUGGEST A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FT COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AREA. IF IT DOES FORM THE LAYER WOULD DISSIPATE BY
18Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING. A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK SYSTEM NEARING THE WATERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING SMALL
CRAFT WINDS.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUN. ENP WAVE
MODEL IS DOING WELL BASED ON COMPARISON WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS.
BUOY 46089 WAS 16 FT AT 15 SECONDS AS OF 03Z THIS EVENING...ON
TRACK TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN THE
SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT...AND PEAKING AROUND MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT
EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
COASTS. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 6 PM AND
10 PM AND LIKELY PEAK NEAR 20 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR
THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT PDT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..





000
FXUS66 KPQR 192200
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
259 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS.... SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST . WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH
COAST ZONES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR
MORE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR MORE RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED
AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
AND NOW ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY STREAM OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS. SATELLITE DEPICTS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS OFFSHORE
WORKING ITS WAY THIS DIRECTION AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS THE MOIST
FLOW HITS LAND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODESTLY STEEP. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY
NOSING INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR FLORENCE AND NEWPORT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...BUT THE LOWEST
LEVELS STABILIZE ENOUGH TO MENTION PATCHY FOG...FAVORED MOST FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS AND THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU
HEAD INTO THE VALLEY.

FLAT RIDGING TONIGHT AMPLIFIES SOME ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITHWARMER TEMPS AFTER
THE COOL START. MID TO UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH IN AHEAD OF A COMPACT
CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 46N/145W AT THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
LOW. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HEAD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SA THIS IS HAPPENING
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN A PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA...BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES TO SOME DEGREE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AIR MASS AT BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS
DIGGING THE TROUGH S PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON
TO CHANCE CATEGORY INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.

SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS
COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
MOST ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND THE
PASSESMID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. NORMALLY -28C TO POSSIBLY COOLER AT 500 TEMPS BRINGS
CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN FORCING PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A THUNDER MENTION YET...BUT CAN SEE IT BEING
ADDED A FUTURE TIME. /KMD

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WE START OUT FAIRLY QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE
RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL
LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING WITH A MIX OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
2000 TO 3000 FT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
DECREASE ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BRINGS STABLE CONDITIONS WHICH MAY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS SUN MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2500-3000 FT THROUGH 00Z OR SO. AFTER 12Z SUN MODEL RH
FIELDS AND SOUNDING SUGGEST A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FT COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AREA. IF IT DOES FORM THE LAYER WOULD DISSIPATE BY
18Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KT CONTINUE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRENDS IS FOR THE WINDS TO DECREASE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND THAT APPEARS TO BE
HAPPENING. WILL KEEP CURRENT ADVISORIES UNCHANGED. A RELATIVELY
QUIET PERIOD STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK SYSTEM NEARING THE
WATERS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED OR
THU...LIKELY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT WINDS.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUN. ENP WAVE
MODEL IS DOING WELL BASED ON COMPARISON WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS.
BUOY 46036 WHICH ABOUT 500 NM OFF THE WA COAST WAS 31 FT WITH A
16 SECOND PERIOD AT 18Z. THIS WAS WITHIN 1 FT OF THE ENP OUTPUT.
THE ENP ALSO COMPARED WELL WITH BUOY 46002 - ABOUT 300 NM OFF THE
SOUTH OREGON COAST - MEASURING 15 FT AT 18Z.

EXPECT SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS
WHEN THE SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING...AND PEAKING
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN
NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
COASTS. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 6 PM AND
10 PM AND LIKELY PEAK NEAR 20 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR
THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM PDT
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..





000
FXUS66 KPQR 192200
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
259 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS.... SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST . WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH
COAST ZONES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR
MORE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR MORE RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED
AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
AND NOW ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY STREAM OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS. SATELLITE DEPICTS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS OFFSHORE
WORKING ITS WAY THIS DIRECTION AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS THE MOIST
FLOW HITS LAND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODESTLY STEEP. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY
NOSING INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR FLORENCE AND NEWPORT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...BUT THE LOWEST
LEVELS STABILIZE ENOUGH TO MENTION PATCHY FOG...FAVORED MOST FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS AND THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU
HEAD INTO THE VALLEY.

FLAT RIDGING TONIGHT AMPLIFIES SOME ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITHWARMER TEMPS AFTER
THE COOL START. MID TO UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH IN AHEAD OF A COMPACT
CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 46N/145W AT THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
LOW. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HEAD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SA THIS IS HAPPENING
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN A PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA...BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES TO SOME DEGREE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AIR MASS AT BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS
DIGGING THE TROUGH S PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON
TO CHANCE CATEGORY INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.

SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS
COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
MOST ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND THE
PASSESMID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. NORMALLY -28C TO POSSIBLY COOLER AT 500 TEMPS BRINGS
CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN FORCING PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A THUNDER MENTION YET...BUT CAN SEE IT BEING
ADDED A FUTURE TIME. /KMD

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WE START OUT FAIRLY QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE
RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL
LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING WITH A MIX OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
2000 TO 3000 FT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
DECREASE ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BRINGS STABLE CONDITIONS WHICH MAY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS SUN MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2500-3000 FT THROUGH 00Z OR SO. AFTER 12Z SUN MODEL RH
FIELDS AND SOUNDING SUGGEST A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FT COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AREA. IF IT DOES FORM THE LAYER WOULD DISSIPATE BY
18Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KT CONTINUE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRENDS IS FOR THE WINDS TO DECREASE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND THAT APPEARS TO BE
HAPPENING. WILL KEEP CURRENT ADVISORIES UNCHANGED. A RELATIVELY
QUIET PERIOD STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK SYSTEM NEARING THE
WATERS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED OR
THU...LIKELY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT WINDS.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUN. ENP WAVE
MODEL IS DOING WELL BASED ON COMPARISON WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS.
BUOY 46036 WHICH ABOUT 500 NM OFF THE WA COAST WAS 31 FT WITH A
16 SECOND PERIOD AT 18Z. THIS WAS WITHIN 1 FT OF THE ENP OUTPUT.
THE ENP ALSO COMPARED WELL WITH BUOY 46002 - ABOUT 300 NM OFF THE
SOUTH OREGON COAST - MEASURING 15 FT AT 18Z.

EXPECT SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS
WHEN THE SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING...AND PEAKING
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN
NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
COASTS. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 6 PM AND
10 PM AND LIKELY PEAK NEAR 20 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR
THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM PDT
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 191635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
932 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A  COLD FRONT AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY...CROSSING THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN
OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES. &&

.MORNING UPDATE...QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB (10K FT OR SO)
ON THE MORNING SALEM SOUNDING BUT LIFT FROM INCOMING MODEST
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND UPPER JET IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. LIKELY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WHICH IS NOW NEARING THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THE BEST DYNAMICS GRAZE THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE MORE
MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP IS NOT VERY LONG
LASTING AND DRY AIR INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP TOTALS...SO
LIKE THE OCCASIONAL RAIN WORDING TODAY WITH TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WILL NOT BE A HUGE SOAKER INALND.
SUBSIDENCE RETUNS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND
THIS FRONT AGAIN WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE NORTH
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE ABOUT 200 MI OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ON TRACK TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND LOW LEVEL
WITH THE FRONT...MATCHING THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING
MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. WHILE MOISTURE IS ON THE SHALLOW
SIDE...THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG AND IS SYNCHED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROVIDING WELL TIMED LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH TODAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
ONSHORE FAVORING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND AN INITIALLY
FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUN. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DIGS OFFSHORE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES BUILDS. AS THE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW BACKS TO THE SSW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS AT
BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS DIGGING THE TROUGH S
PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY
INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AS A FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. PCPN HAS REACHED THE COAST WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS IN
THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO INLAND TAF SITES
AROUND 18Z WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. NAM RH FIELDS AT 925 MB
IMPLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT SO COULD SEE
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG SUN MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. THEN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500-3000 FT THROUGH 00Z OR SO.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ASHORE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SUN. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN
THE SWELL ARRIVES AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...AND PEAKING THROUGH 5 AM
SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT
EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING
FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. IT APPEARS THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO MEET CRITERIA BASED ON POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...SO WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. ALL
INDIVIDUALS ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..





000
FXUS66 KPQR 191635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
932 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A  COLD FRONT AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY...CROSSING THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN
OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES. &&

.MORNING UPDATE...QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB (10K FT OR SO)
ON THE MORNING SALEM SOUNDING BUT LIFT FROM INCOMING MODEST
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND UPPER JET IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. LIKELY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WHICH IS NOW NEARING THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THE BEST DYNAMICS GRAZE THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE MORE
MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP IS NOT VERY LONG
LASTING AND DRY AIR INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP TOTALS...SO
LIKE THE OCCASIONAL RAIN WORDING TODAY WITH TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WILL NOT BE A HUGE SOAKER INALND.
SUBSIDENCE RETUNS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND
THIS FRONT AGAIN WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE NORTH
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE ABOUT 200 MI OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ON TRACK TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND LOW LEVEL
WITH THE FRONT...MATCHING THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING
MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. WHILE MOISTURE IS ON THE SHALLOW
SIDE...THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG AND IS SYNCHED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROVIDING WELL TIMED LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH TODAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
ONSHORE FAVORING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND AN INITIALLY
FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUN. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DIGS OFFSHORE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES BUILDS. AS THE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW BACKS TO THE SSW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS AT
BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS DIGGING THE TROUGH S
PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY
INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AS A FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. PCPN HAS REACHED THE COAST WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS IN
THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO INLAND TAF SITES
AROUND 18Z WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. NAM RH FIELDS AT 925 MB
IMPLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT SO COULD SEE
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG SUN MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. THEN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500-3000 FT THROUGH 00Z OR SO.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ASHORE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SUN. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN
THE SWELL ARRIVES AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...AND PEAKING THROUGH 5 AM
SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT
EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING
FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. IT APPEARS THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO MEET CRITERIA BASED ON POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...SO WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. ALL
INDIVIDUALS ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 190923
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A  COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY...CROSSING THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN
OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE ABOUT 200 MI OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ON TRACK TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND LOW LEVEL
WITH THE FRONT...MATCHING THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING
MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. WHILE MOISTURE IS ON THE SHALLOW
SIDE...THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG AND IS SYNCHED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROVIDING WELL TIMED LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH TODAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
ONSHORE FAVORING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND AN INITIALLY
FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUN. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DIGS OFFSHORE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES BUILDS. AS THE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW BACKS TO THE SSW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS AT
BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS DIGGING THE TROUGH S
PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY
INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AS A FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF 09Z. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT WITH RAIN TO
REACH THE COAST BY 14Z...AND PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AROUND
18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TOWARDS VFR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000 FT LIKELY AROUND 18Z WITH RAIN AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THEN BECOMING VFR AROUND 00Z SUN.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS STARTING
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ASHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUN. SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN THE SWELL
ARRIVES AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...AND PEAKING THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING
FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. IT APPEARS THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF CRITERIA...BUT ALL
INDIVIDUALS ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS WEEKEND.
CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.


&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..





000
FXUS66 KPQR 190923
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A  COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY...CROSSING THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN
OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE ABOUT 200 MI OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ON TRACK TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND LOW LEVEL
WITH THE FRONT...MATCHING THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING
MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. WHILE MOISTURE IS ON THE SHALLOW
SIDE...THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG AND IS SYNCHED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROVIDING WELL TIMED LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH TODAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
ONSHORE FAVORING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND AN INITIALLY
FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUN. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DIGS OFFSHORE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES BUILDS. AS THE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW BACKS TO THE SSW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS AT
BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS DIGGING THE TROUGH S
PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY
INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AS A FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF 09Z. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT WITH RAIN TO
REACH THE COAST BY 14Z...AND PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AROUND
18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TOWARDS VFR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000 FT LIKELY AROUND 18Z WITH RAIN AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THEN BECOMING VFR AROUND 00Z SUN.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS STARTING
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ASHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUN. SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN THE SWELL
ARRIVES AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...AND PEAKING THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING
FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. IT APPEARS THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF CRITERIA...BUT ALL
INDIVIDUALS ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS WEEKEND.
CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.


&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 190417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS OFF THE COAST...AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE
FAR NORTH COAST ZONES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD
CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER A DRY DAY TODAY...
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS OFF THE COAST AND
WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT MUCH IF ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING LATER TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE FRONT AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS FAIRLY EARLY IN THE MORNING...SO
OVERALL SATURDAY WILL BE PRETTY WET MOST AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE
EAST OF THE CASCADES BY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MODEST SIDE...BUT ALL
AREAS SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN AREAS...SAY NORTH OF ABOUT SALEM
AND TILLAMOOK OR PERHAPS A BIT NORTH OF THAT WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS
THAN FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE SHOWERS SHOULD DRAMATICALLY DECREASE
ALL AREAS THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON EASTERN SUNDAY. SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY...BUT THIS IS NOT
CERTAIN.

THE NEXT FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED AS ENERGY FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM THEN BEGINS TO PUSH ONSHORE
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE
LOOKING CONVECTIVE IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IN
APRIL BEGINS TO LOOK MORE LIKE A THUNDERSTORM PATTERN. MODEL LIFTED
INDICES FALL BELOW ZERO OVER THE CASCADES AND IN CENTRAL OREGON LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...SO WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING
THUNDER TO OUR CASCADE ZONES FOR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST AROUND MID MORNING SAT...AND TO THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AROUND MIDDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 12Z-15Z SAT
AT THE COAST AND 18Z-20Z SAT AT INLAND TAF SITES. CONDITIONS TRENDING
TOWARD VFR LATER SAT AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING THEN
MVFR CIGS BECOMING LIKELY BY 18Z SAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.
&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH OVER
THE WATERS. THE HIGH PRES GIVES WAY TO A FRONT LATER TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS LATER TONIGHT
AND SAT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS 30-35 KT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOVING ASHORE AROUND SUNRISE SAT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SAT EVENING INTO SUN. SEAS
APPEAR ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS AROUND
11 PM SAT NIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN MORNING BUT REMAIN IN THE 13 TO 16 FT RANGE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT LATE MON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SWELL TRAIN.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6
     AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     10 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     11 PM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 190417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS OFF THE COAST...AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE
FAR NORTH COAST ZONES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD
CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER A DRY DAY TODAY...
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS OFF THE COAST AND
WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT MUCH IF ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING LATER TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE FRONT AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS FAIRLY EARLY IN THE MORNING...SO
OVERALL SATURDAY WILL BE PRETTY WET MOST AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE
EAST OF THE CASCADES BY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MODEST SIDE...BUT ALL
AREAS SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN AREAS...SAY NORTH OF ABOUT SALEM
AND TILLAMOOK OR PERHAPS A BIT NORTH OF THAT WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS
THAN FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE SHOWERS SHOULD DRAMATICALLY DECREASE
ALL AREAS THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON EASTERN SUNDAY. SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY...BUT THIS IS NOT
CERTAIN.

THE NEXT FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED AS ENERGY FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM THEN BEGINS TO PUSH ONSHORE
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE
LOOKING CONVECTIVE IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IN
APRIL BEGINS TO LOOK MORE LIKE A THUNDERSTORM PATTERN. MODEL LIFTED
INDICES FALL BELOW ZERO OVER THE CASCADES AND IN CENTRAL OREGON LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...SO WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING
THUNDER TO OUR CASCADE ZONES FOR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST AROUND MID MORNING SAT...AND TO THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AROUND MIDDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 12Z-15Z SAT
AT THE COAST AND 18Z-20Z SAT AT INLAND TAF SITES. CONDITIONS TRENDING
TOWARD VFR LATER SAT AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING THEN
MVFR CIGS BECOMING LIKELY BY 18Z SAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.
&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH OVER
THE WATERS. THE HIGH PRES GIVES WAY TO A FRONT LATER TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS LATER TONIGHT
AND SAT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS 30-35 KT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOVING ASHORE AROUND SUNRISE SAT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SAT EVENING INTO SUN. SEAS
APPEAR ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS AROUND
11 PM SAT NIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN MORNING BUT REMAIN IN THE 13 TO 16 FT RANGE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT LATE MON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SWELL TRAIN.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6
     AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     10 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     11 PM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..





000
FXUS66 KPQR 182130
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
224 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOR MORE RAIN. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS SUNDAY.
WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INLAND DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LONG AS MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT
FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
&&


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR A GENERALLY PLEASANT AND
CALM AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING OUT AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION IS ENCROACHING ON 140W WITH A NICE COMMA CLOUD PATTERN.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND THE INTERIOR
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
ON SATURDAY...BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AND LIKELY
REACHING MOST OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BEFORE THE MORNING IS OVER.
STEADIEST RAIN IS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ALONG THE WA/OR BORDER. EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST AND TO SOME DEGREE FOR THE INTERIOR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE LARGE
IMPACTS ON THE INTERIOR...IT WILL BE SENDING LARGE WAVES WITH LONG
PERIODS THAT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE ON
SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE S WA AND N OR COASTS.

ONCE AGAIN SNOW LEVELS START HIGH AND THE DIP TO NEAR THE PASSES
BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO WANE...BUT SOME SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE CASCADES IN THE EVENING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE PASSES....ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE NEWPORT TO MT
JEFFERSON LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW TO SOMEWHAT
WEAK RIDING SATURDAY NIGHT. MAYBE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
INTO SUNDAY MORNING

ON SUNDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THE MASSIVE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AMPLIFIES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH AND KICKS A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
FEED TOWARD THE COAST...BUT IT GETS HUNG UP OFFSHORE DUE TO THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. THEREFORE MOST OF SUNDAY IS
LOOKING DRY AND FAIRLY NICE AND POTENTIALLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 5C IN THE FAR
N TO NEAR 10C IN THE FAR S. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH SUPPORTS MID 60S...EVEN WARMER
SOUTH...DESPITE A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE
OFFSHORE TROUGH. /KMD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE
UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE
FRONT...BUT WITH THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL
LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST AROUND MID MORNING SAT...AND TO THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AROUND MIDDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 12Z-15Z
SAT AT THE COAST AND 18Z-20Z SAT AT INLAND TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATER SAT AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING THEN
MVFR CIGS BECOMING LIKELY BY 18Z SAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH
OVER THE WATERS. THE HIGH PRES GIVES WAY TO A FRONT LATER TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS 30-35 KT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...MOVING ASHORE AROUND SUNRISE SAT. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SAT EVENING INTO SUN.
SEAS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS
AROUND 11 PM SAT NIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM SUN.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN MORNING BUT REMAIN IN THE 13 TO 16 FT
RANGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT LATE MON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SWELL TRAIN.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6
     AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 182130
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
224 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOR MORE RAIN. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS SUNDAY.
WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INLAND DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LONG AS MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT
FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
&&


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR A GENERALLY PLEASANT AND
CALM AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING OUT AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION IS ENCROACHING ON 140W WITH A NICE COMMA CLOUD PATTERN.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND THE INTERIOR
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
ON SATURDAY...BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AND LIKELY
REACHING MOST OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BEFORE THE MORNING IS OVER.
STEADIEST RAIN IS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ALONG THE WA/OR BORDER. EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST AND TO SOME DEGREE FOR THE INTERIOR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE LARGE
IMPACTS ON THE INTERIOR...IT WILL BE SENDING LARGE WAVES WITH LONG
PERIODS THAT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE ON
SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE S WA AND N OR COASTS.

ONCE AGAIN SNOW LEVELS START HIGH AND THE DIP TO NEAR THE PASSES
BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO WANE...BUT SOME SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE CASCADES IN THE EVENING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE PASSES....ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE NEWPORT TO MT
JEFFERSON LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW TO SOMEWHAT
WEAK RIDING SATURDAY NIGHT. MAYBE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
INTO SUNDAY MORNING

ON SUNDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THE MASSIVE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AMPLIFIES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH AND KICKS A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
FEED TOWARD THE COAST...BUT IT GETS HUNG UP OFFSHORE DUE TO THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. THEREFORE MOST OF SUNDAY IS
LOOKING DRY AND FAIRLY NICE AND POTENTIALLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 5C IN THE FAR
N TO NEAR 10C IN THE FAR S. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH SUPPORTS MID 60S...EVEN WARMER
SOUTH...DESPITE A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE
OFFSHORE TROUGH. /KMD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE
UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE
FRONT...BUT WITH THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL
LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST AROUND MID MORNING SAT...AND TO THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AROUND MIDDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 12Z-15Z
SAT AT THE COAST AND 18Z-20Z SAT AT INLAND TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATER SAT AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING THEN
MVFR CIGS BECOMING LIKELY BY 18Z SAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH
OVER THE WATERS. THE HIGH PRES GIVES WAY TO A FRONT LATER TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS 30-35 KT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...MOVING ASHORE AROUND SUNRISE SAT. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SAT EVENING INTO SUN.
SEAS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS
AROUND 11 PM SAT NIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM SUN.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN MORNING BUT REMAIN IN THE 13 TO 16 FT
RANGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT LATE MON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SWELL TRAIN.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6
     AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 181601
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
859 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS A BIT SUNDAY. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LONG AS MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...AS USUAL WHENEVER WE GET RAIN AND THEN CLEAR OUT
AND GET SOME WEAK SURFACE WINDS...WE GET SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WHICH HAS BEEN LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE WILLAMETTE IN THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL VALLEY...AND ALONG MANY OTHER RIVER VALLEYS.  WEAK SURFACE
FLOW WILL CAUSE THE FOG AND STRATUS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT MID
APRIL SUN WILL CONTINUE ITS WORK TO ERODE FOG AND VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD PLEASANT WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICKER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLUMBIA AS A DISTURBANCE SLIDES THROUGH IN NW FLOW AND EVEN
PRODUCES A SHOWER OR TWO. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WAS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES AS OF 09Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
OBVIOUS DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NWS DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND S WA CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRI MORNING AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT GRADUALLY MODERATES...WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEED TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE S WA CASCADES AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH 10-15 KT WLY 850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND NW ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF MT.
HOOD AT 18Z.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
500 MB RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE DAMPENS OUT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND EVEN SHORTER LIVED THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS INDICATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
DETAILS FOR THE SAT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS SHIFT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE COAST
IN THE 12Z-15Z SAT TIME FRAME AND THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. RAIN
MAY EVEN PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS
SHOW. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT A DECENT PACE AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LINGERING
PRECIP GENERALLY N OF A MT. JEFFERSON TO KONP LINE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COOL POOL ALOFT. ANY LEFT-OVER PRECIP 12Z SUN SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE SW WA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING NICER AS A TRANSITORY 500 MB
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PAC NW. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 5C IN THE FAR
N TO NEAR 10C IN THE FAR S. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. A DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUN NIGHT ALLOWING THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY. AS A RESULT...WENT DRY SUN NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR THE S WA COAST. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND TO 40N 133W WILL PIVOT INTO A MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTATION SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS MAY HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MON. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS FORCED INLAND MON
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGH DIVES TO THE SE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON FOR THE
CASCADES WITH INCREASING S-SWLY FLOW...POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. LARGER MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP WED AND THU FOR
DIMINISHED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME PATCHES OF FOG ON THE COAST AND INLAND FROM KCVO TO KEUG THAT
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 17Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. RAIN BEGINNING ON THE COAST ABOUT 12Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING AFTER 15Z. INLAND AREAS...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z SAT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING THEN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z SAT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH OVER THE
WATERS. THE HIGH PRES GIVES WAY TO A FRONT TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS EARLY SAT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUN MORNING.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SAT EVENING AND SUN.
SEAS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16
SECONDS FROM AROUND 11 PM SAT NIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN MORNING BUT REMAIN IN
THE 13 TO 16 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT LATE MON. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SWELL
TRAIN.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6
     AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.


&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 181601
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
859 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS A BIT SUNDAY. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LONG AS MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...AS USUAL WHENEVER WE GET RAIN AND THEN CLEAR OUT
AND GET SOME WEAK SURFACE WINDS...WE GET SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WHICH HAS BEEN LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE WILLAMETTE IN THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL VALLEY...AND ALONG MANY OTHER RIVER VALLEYS.  WEAK SURFACE
FLOW WILL CAUSE THE FOG AND STRATUS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT MID
APRIL SUN WILL CONTINUE ITS WORK TO ERODE FOG AND VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD PLEASANT WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICKER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLUMBIA AS A DISTURBANCE SLIDES THROUGH IN NW FLOW AND EVEN
PRODUCES A SHOWER OR TWO. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WAS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES AS OF 09Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
OBVIOUS DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NWS DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND S WA CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRI MORNING AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT GRADUALLY MODERATES...WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEED TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE S WA CASCADES AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH 10-15 KT WLY 850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND NW ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF MT.
HOOD AT 18Z.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
500 MB RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE DAMPENS OUT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND EVEN SHORTER LIVED THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS INDICATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
DETAILS FOR THE SAT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS SHIFT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE COAST
IN THE 12Z-15Z SAT TIME FRAME AND THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. RAIN
MAY EVEN PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS
SHOW. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT A DECENT PACE AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LINGERING
PRECIP GENERALLY N OF A MT. JEFFERSON TO KONP LINE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COOL POOL ALOFT. ANY LEFT-OVER PRECIP 12Z SUN SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE SW WA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING NICER AS A TRANSITORY 500 MB
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PAC NW. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 5C IN THE FAR
N TO NEAR 10C IN THE FAR S. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. A DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUN NIGHT ALLOWING THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY. AS A RESULT...WENT DRY SUN NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR THE S WA COAST. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND TO 40N 133W WILL PIVOT INTO A MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTATION SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS MAY HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MON. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS FORCED INLAND MON
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGH DIVES TO THE SE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON FOR THE
CASCADES WITH INCREASING S-SWLY FLOW...POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. LARGER MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP WED AND THU FOR
DIMINISHED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME PATCHES OF FOG ON THE COAST AND INLAND FROM KCVO TO KEUG THAT
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 17Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. RAIN BEGINNING ON THE COAST ABOUT 12Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING AFTER 15Z. INLAND AREAS...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z SAT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING THEN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z SAT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH OVER THE
WATERS. THE HIGH PRES GIVES WAY TO A FRONT TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS EARLY SAT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUN MORNING.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SAT EVENING AND SUN.
SEAS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16
SECONDS FROM AROUND 11 PM SAT NIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN MORNING BUT REMAIN IN
THE 13 TO 16 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT LATE MON. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SWELL
TRAIN.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6
     AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.


&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..





000
FXUS66 KPQR 180914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS A BIT SUNDAY. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LONG AS MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WAS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES AS OF 09Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
OBVIOUS DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NWS DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND S WA CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRI MORNING AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT GRADUALLY MODERATES...WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEED TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE S WA CASCADES AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH 10-15 KT WLY 850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND NW ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF MT.
HOOD AT 18Z.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
500 MB RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE DAMPENS OUT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND EVEN SHORTER LIVED THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS INDICATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
DETAILS FOR THE SAT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS SHIFT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE COAST
IN THE 12Z-15Z SAT TIME FRAME AND THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. RAIN
MAY EVEN PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS
SHOW. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT A DECENT PACE AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LINGERING
PRECIP GENERALLY N OF A MT. JEFFERSON TO KONP LINE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COOL POOL ALOFT. ANY LEFT-OVER PRECIP 12Z SUN SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE SW WA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING NICER AS A TRANSITORY 500 MB
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PAC NW. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 5C IN THE FAR
N TO NEAR 10C IN THE FAR S. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. A DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUN NIGHT ALLOWING THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY. AS A RESULT...WENT DRY SUN NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR THE S WA COAST. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND TO 40N 133W WILL PIVOT INTO A MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTATION SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. THUS...DRY CONDITONS MAY HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MON. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS FORCED INLAND MON
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGH DIVES TO THE SE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON FOR THE
CASCADES WITH INCREASING S-SWLY FLOW...POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. LARGER MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP WED AND THU FOR
DIMINISHED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING A SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3000-4000 FT. JUST A FEW
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN...PRIMARILY N OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND ALSO IN THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DECREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 16Z TO 18Z AND REMAIN VFR FRI AS HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. LOW
STRATUS OR FOG LIKELY DEVELOPS AROUND 12Z. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 16Z TO 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF FRI.
INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE WATERS. A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND
20 KT POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
FAR N OREGON AND S WASHINGTON WATERS WHERE THE SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER. AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD ON TAP OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT UNDER HIGH
PRES.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WINDS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 5 AM
SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
LATE SAT AND SUN. WHILE THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 1 FT
LOWER... SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS FROM
AROUND 11 PM SAT NIGHT THROUGH AROUND TO 5 PM SUN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SUN. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SUN AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST WED. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..





000
FXUS66 KPQR 180914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS A BIT SUNDAY. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LONG AS MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WAS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES AS OF 09Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
OBVIOUS DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NWS DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND S WA CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRI MORNING AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT GRADUALLY MODERATES...WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEED TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE S WA CASCADES AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH 10-15 KT WLY 850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND NW ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF MT.
HOOD AT 18Z.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
500 MB RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE DAMPENS OUT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND EVEN SHORTER LIVED THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS INDICATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
DETAILS FOR THE SAT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS SHIFT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE COAST
IN THE 12Z-15Z SAT TIME FRAME AND THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. RAIN
MAY EVEN PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS
SHOW. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT A DECENT PACE AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LINGERING
PRECIP GENERALLY N OF A MT. JEFFERSON TO KONP LINE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COOL POOL ALOFT. ANY LEFT-OVER PRECIP 12Z SUN SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE SW WA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING NICER AS A TRANSITORY 500 MB
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PAC NW. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 5C IN THE FAR
N TO NEAR 10C IN THE FAR S. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. A DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUN NIGHT ALLOWING THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY. AS A RESULT...WENT DRY SUN NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR THE S WA COAST. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND TO 40N 133W WILL PIVOT INTO A MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTATION SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. THUS...DRY CONDITONS MAY HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MON. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS FORCED INLAND MON
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGH DIVES TO THE SE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON FOR THE
CASCADES WITH INCREASING S-SWLY FLOW...POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. LARGER MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP WED AND THU FOR
DIMINISHED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING A SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3000-4000 FT. JUST A FEW
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN...PRIMARILY N OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND ALSO IN THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DECREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 16Z TO 18Z AND REMAIN VFR FRI AS HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. LOW
STRATUS OR FOG LIKELY DEVELOPS AROUND 12Z. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 16Z TO 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF FRI.
INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE WATERS. A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND
20 KT POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
FAR N OREGON AND S WASHINGTON WATERS WHERE THE SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER. AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD ON TAP OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT UNDER HIGH
PRES.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WINDS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 5 AM
SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
LATE SAT AND SUN. WHILE THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 1 FT
LOWER... SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS FROM
AROUND 11 PM SAT NIGHT THROUGH AROUND TO 5 PM SUN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SUN. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SUN AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST WED. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 180433
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
933 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING AND WAS NOW EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS DECREASING. WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
WITH A DRY DAY MOST AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN
OUR NORTHERN CASCADE FORECAST ZONES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD
IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON EASTERN SUNDAY. A WAVE ALONG THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY...BUT THEN THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
AS A LARGE CHUNK OF ENERGY DIGS SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA...FINALLY
MOVING ONSHORE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING...AND
WAS NOW EAST OF THE CASCADES. THERE ARE SOME SHOWER OVER THE COAST
RANGE AND THE CASCADES...BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHWEST AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...THESE WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE NOT VERY SOLID OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT
SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...AND THOSE WILL BE THE BEST AREAS FOR SOME LOCAL FOG FORMING
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY...BUT SOME NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS FOR AWHILE MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE FRIDAY IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE ON FRIDAY THAT MAY GIVE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL...AND MAY ALSO AFFECT THE LINGERING SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ARE BRIEFLY IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...WITH SOME CLOUDS INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

THE MODELS ARE LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT FRONT FOR
SATURDAY. TIMING LOOKS CONSISTENT AS WELL. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP PRETTY EARLY SATURDAY ON THE COAST...AND REACH THE
INLAND VALLEYS IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AT A DECENT PACE ON SATURDAY...AND APPEARS TO BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER SHORT WAVE IS
ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE THEREFORE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONFIDENCE IN MORE DETAILED TIMING. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TOPSY-TURVY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN TAKES CONTROL. A DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL
VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE
TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE SHOULD BE AND TEMPS AGAIN WARM BACK
TO THE LOWER 60S. AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIED MORE MONDAY...WE COULD HAVE
ANOTHER DRY MORNING...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CASCADES...WITH A
BETTER THREAT INLAND ELSEWHERE IN THE EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PARKS ITSELF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND SENDS WAVES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD..WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE CASCADES AS SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE DOWN NEAR THE PASSES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW HAS
MOVED THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND IS NOW PUSHING
INTO THE CASCADES. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR FOR MANY INLAND
SITES BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE MAINLY MVFR IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE
COAST. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST
AND FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
WEAKENING WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
BY 16Z TO 18Z TOMORROW AND REMAIN VFR AS BRIEF HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE
PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TO 09Z. PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT
WILL LIKELY BRING LOW STRATUS OR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. EXPECT VFR
TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT PUSHED ONSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS OVER THE WATERS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO THE NW AND HAVE
BEGUN TO SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCALIZED
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE RUNNING JUST ABOUT AS FCST
AT 8 TO 10 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WILL
ALLOW THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO RUN
THROUGH THE EXPIRATION TIME OF 06Z. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

THEN EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD FRI INTO EARLY SAT WITH THE HIGH
PRES IN PLACE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY
SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS WITH THIS FRONT. A LARGE
WESTERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS SEAS BETWEEN 17 AND 20 FT BETWEEN
APPROXIMATELY 2 AM AND 2 PM SUNDAY...BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DECREASE. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK THOUGH. PYLE/NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..





000
FXUS66 KPQR 172137
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN RAIN TURNS TO A FEW
SHOWERS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
ANOTHER FRONT IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY...BUT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.... RAIN HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED UPTICKS IN PRECIPITATION RATES
OF LATE. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS ALONG THE COAST/COAST RANGE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. KLGX RADAR DEPICTS MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL OFF AND ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.   LATEST RAP/HRRR PUT THE COLD FRONT ON
THE COAST AROUND 0Z...A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER IN THE VALLEY....THOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SOME
UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING A REAL BIG KICK AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES DRAG BY TO OUR NORTH. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES
AROUND 06Z FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE
COLUMBIA GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.

FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS
GIVEN THE COLD AIR CUMULUS OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FALL TO NEAR THE PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS
TO WANE.

SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOME CONFINED TO CASCADES AND COAST RANGE
TONIGHT AS WE ARE IN WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THERE IS SOME
WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS NOSING IN TONIGHT
AND SLIDES NORTH ALONG THE COAST RANGE...SO MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FLOW THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATUS LATER TONIGHT AND LESS SO EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS DEPICT DECREASING MOISTURE WITH HEIGHT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE LARGELY STILL UNSTABLE.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT
+2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...HIGH SUN
ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

AFTER A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY BEING A WET AFTERNOON INLAND. LESS IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH
TOWARDS CALIFORNIA...BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS BUT THIS WILL
BRING A SHORTER PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN THAN TODAY AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. /KMD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TOPSY-TURVY WEATHER
CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE
PAC NW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN TAKES CONTROL. A DEEPENING
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT MORE SUN. SW
WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE
SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE SHOULD BE AND TEMPS AGAIN
WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 60S. AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIED MORE MONDAY...WE
COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY MORNING...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS
TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CASCADES...WITH A BETTER THREAT INLAND ELSEWHERE IN THE EVENING,.

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PARKS ITSELF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND SENDS WAVES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD..WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE CASCADES AS SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE DOWN NEAR THE PASSES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. /KMD

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONTAL RAIN IS REACHING THE COAT FOR A RETURN TO
MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  COLD FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS
AND WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 0Z...AND REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 3-
4Z AND THE CASCADES BY 5-6Z WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH THIS
TIME. VFR RETURNS WITH A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY UNSTABLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BEST
CHANCE FOR MVFR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
REACH OPS AREA AROUND 03Z....WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. HEADING BACK TO
VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY EARLY FRIDAY.  /KMD

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT. WINDS
SHOULD RELAX BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
COULD HANG ON A TOUCH LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD RISE A COUPLE FEET IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ALLOW SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY SATURDAY.
EXPECT MORE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS WITH THIS FRONT. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE BRINGS SEAS BETWEEN 17 AND 20 FT BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 2 AM
AND 2 PM SUNDAY...BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE. SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 172137
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN RAIN TURNS TO A FEW
SHOWERS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
ANOTHER FRONT IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY...BUT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.... RAIN HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED UPTICKS IN PRECIPITATION RATES
OF LATE. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS ALONG THE COAST/COAST RANGE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. KLGX RADAR DEPICTS MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL OFF AND ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.   LATEST RAP/HRRR PUT THE COLD FRONT ON
THE COAST AROUND 0Z...A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER IN THE VALLEY....THOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SOME
UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING A REAL BIG KICK AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES DRAG BY TO OUR NORTH. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES
AROUND 06Z FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE
COLUMBIA GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.

FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS
GIVEN THE COLD AIR CUMULUS OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FALL TO NEAR THE PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS
TO WANE.

SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOME CONFINED TO CASCADES AND COAST RANGE
TONIGHT AS WE ARE IN WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THERE IS SOME
WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS NOSING IN TONIGHT
AND SLIDES NORTH ALONG THE COAST RANGE...SO MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FLOW THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATUS LATER TONIGHT AND LESS SO EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS DEPICT DECREASING MOISTURE WITH HEIGHT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE LARGELY STILL UNSTABLE.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT
+2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...HIGH SUN
ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

AFTER A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY BEING A WET AFTERNOON INLAND. LESS IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH
TOWARDS CALIFORNIA...BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS BUT THIS WILL
BRING A SHORTER PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN THAN TODAY AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. /KMD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TOPSY-TURVY WEATHER
CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE
PAC NW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN TAKES CONTROL. A DEEPENING
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT MORE SUN. SW
WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE
SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE SHOULD BE AND TEMPS AGAIN
WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 60S. AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIED MORE MONDAY...WE
COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY MORNING...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS
TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CASCADES...WITH A BETTER THREAT INLAND ELSEWHERE IN THE EVENING,.

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PARKS ITSELF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND SENDS WAVES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD..WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE CASCADES AS SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE DOWN NEAR THE PASSES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. /KMD

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONTAL RAIN IS REACHING THE COAT FOR A RETURN TO
MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  COLD FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS
AND WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 0Z...AND REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 3-
4Z AND THE CASCADES BY 5-6Z WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH THIS
TIME. VFR RETURNS WITH A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY UNSTABLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BEST
CHANCE FOR MVFR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
REACH OPS AREA AROUND 03Z....WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. HEADING BACK TO
VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY EARLY FRIDAY.  /KMD

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT. WINDS
SHOULD RELAX BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
COULD HANG ON A TOUCH LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD RISE A COUPLE FEET IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ALLOW SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY SATURDAY.
EXPECT MORE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS WITH THIS FRONT. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE BRINGS SEAS BETWEEN 17 AND 20 FT BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 2 AM
AND 2 PM SUNDAY...BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE. SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..





000
FXUS66 KPQR 171606
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER NEAR
THE CASCADE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING TO
ENCOMPASS EVERYWHERE BUT THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. MORNING SOUNDING
FROM SALEM INDICATED THAT SOME LOWER LEVEL SATURATION WAS STILL
NEEDED AND NOW THIS HAS OCCURRED. THERE IS A DECENT MOISTURE PLUME
THAT HAD ORIGINS IN THE SUBTROPICS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BUT SOME OF IT (0.90 PW ON KLSE 12Z SOUNDING) HAS BEEN ENTRAINED
THIS FAR NORTH. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP/HRRR PUT THE COLD
FRONT ON THE COAST AROUND 0Z...A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER IN THE
VALLEY....THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT SOME UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING A REAL
BIG KICK AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DRAG BY TO OUR NORTH. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS.

AFTER A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SATURDAY BEING A WET AFTERNOON INLAND...SO EXPECT POPS TO GO UP
DURING THIS TIME. LESS IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY
BETTER DYNAMICS BUT THIS WILL BRING A SHORTER PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN
THAN TODAY. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW EARLY
THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 46N 134W AS OF 09Z
WITH A MOISTURE FETCH ALONG 40N EXTENDING OUT BEYOND 160W. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE VALID 07Z INDICATED AROUND AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE FETCH. NWS
KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR HAS STEADILY FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A TENTH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING.
RAIN RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
INCREASING INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING 700 MB
AND 850 MB WLY WIND. GFS AND ECMWF IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 21Z
TO 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED A BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS GFS TIMING. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z
FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON THU NIGHT. 850 MB OROGRAPHIC WLY FLOW OF
10-20 KT INTO THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES IN THE 00Z-06Z
FRI TIME FRAME...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR THE
PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT +2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
LOOKED TO BE A DRY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE FASTEST ALL ALONG THE LATEST GFS HAS SEEMED TO CAUGHT UP
WITH IT. PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 18Z SAT...OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOONER...AND SPREAD INLAND THEREAFTER. BOOSTED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP DIMINISHES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW. A
DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE
SHOULD BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
OR MON MORNING. BEYOND MON...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NE
PAC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO COOL...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
CASCADES. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST WITH VIS AND
EVENTUALLY WITH CIGS. EXPECT IFR AT TIMES AS WELL.  THE COAST CAN
CONTINUE TO EXPECT OF MIX OF EVERYTHING TODAY BUT MVFR AND IFR WILL
BE PREDOMINANT...WITH PERSISTENT IFR CIGS INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD
FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS AND WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 0Z...AND
REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 2-3Z FRI. MTNS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURNING TO VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE CASCADES. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY UNSTABLE TO
SUPPORT VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT CIGS DOWN TO 1500 FT
OR LOWER AT TIMES AS RAIN INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY TODAY. HAVE POCKETS
OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE TERMINAL AS WELL. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH
OPS AREA AROUND 03Z FRI...WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. HEADING BACK TO VFR
BEHIND THE FRONT. /KMD

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TOWARDS MIDDAY BEFORE
TURNING W TO NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY AS THERE IS AN CHANCE WIND GUSTS COULD
PUSH 35 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
A GALE WARNING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. EITHER
WAY...SEAS SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE THIS EVENING SO
A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF TOPPING OUT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 10 FT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS. LIKELY THE BIGGEST STORY WITH THIS
FRONT IS THAT A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. 15 TO 20 FT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY...WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUN OR TWO TRENDING HIGHER. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM TO
     9 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..





000
FXUS66 KPQR 171606
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER NEAR
THE CASCADE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING TO
ENCOMPASS EVERYWHERE BUT THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. MORNING SOUNDING
FROM SALEM INDICATED THAT SOME LOWER LEVEL SATURATION WAS STILL
NEEDED AND NOW THIS HAS OCCURRED. THERE IS A DECENT MOISTURE PLUME
THAT HAD ORIGINS IN THE SUBTROPICS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BUT SOME OF IT (0.90 PW ON KLSE 12Z SOUNDING) HAS BEEN ENTRAINED
THIS FAR NORTH. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP/HRRR PUT THE COLD
FRONT ON THE COAST AROUND 0Z...A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER IN THE
VALLEY....THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT SOME UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING A REAL
BIG KICK AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DRAG BY TO OUR NORTH. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS.

AFTER A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SATURDAY BEING A WET AFTERNOON INLAND...SO EXPECT POPS TO GO UP
DURING THIS TIME. LESS IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY
BETTER DYNAMICS BUT THIS WILL BRING A SHORTER PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN
THAN TODAY. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW EARLY
THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 46N 134W AS OF 09Z
WITH A MOISTURE FETCH ALONG 40N EXTENDING OUT BEYOND 160W. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE VALID 07Z INDICATED AROUND AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE FETCH. NWS
KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR HAS STEADILY FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A TENTH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING.
RAIN RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
INCREASING INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING 700 MB
AND 850 MB WLY WIND. GFS AND ECMWF IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 21Z
TO 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED A BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS GFS TIMING. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z
FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON THU NIGHT. 850 MB OROGRAPHIC WLY FLOW OF
10-20 KT INTO THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES IN THE 00Z-06Z
FRI TIME FRAME...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR THE
PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT +2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
LOOKED TO BE A DRY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE FASTEST ALL ALONG THE LATEST GFS HAS SEEMED TO CAUGHT UP
WITH IT. PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 18Z SAT...OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOONER...AND SPREAD INLAND THEREAFTER. BOOSTED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP DIMINISHES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW. A
DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE
SHOULD BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
OR MON MORNING. BEYOND MON...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NE
PAC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO COOL...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
CASCADES. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST WITH VIS AND
EVENTUALLY WITH CIGS. EXPECT IFR AT TIMES AS WELL.  THE COAST CAN
CONTINUE TO EXPECT OF MIX OF EVERYTHING TODAY BUT MVFR AND IFR WILL
BE PREDOMINANT...WITH PERSISTENT IFR CIGS INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD
FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS AND WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 0Z...AND
REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 2-3Z FRI. MTNS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURNING TO VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE CASCADES. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY UNSTABLE TO
SUPPORT VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT CIGS DOWN TO 1500 FT
OR LOWER AT TIMES AS RAIN INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY TODAY. HAVE POCKETS
OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE TERMINAL AS WELL. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH
OPS AREA AROUND 03Z FRI...WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. HEADING BACK TO VFR
BEHIND THE FRONT. /KMD

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TOWARDS MIDDAY BEFORE
TURNING W TO NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY AS THERE IS AN CHANCE WIND GUSTS COULD
PUSH 35 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
A GALE WARNING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. EITHER
WAY...SEAS SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE THIS EVENING SO
A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF TOPPING OUT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 10 FT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS. LIKELY THE BIGGEST STORY WITH THIS
FRONT IS THAT A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. 15 TO 20 FT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY...WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUN OR TWO TRENDING HIGHER. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM TO
     9 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




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