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000
FXUS66 KPQR 311604
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
903 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE
ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD
PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES THIS MORNING SHOWED UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING SLOWLY N
OFF THE N CA COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN AREA OF
INSTABILITY THIS MORNING OVER SW OREGON...EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE
OREGON CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST SOME ACCAS OR OTHER CLOUDS INDICATING INSTABILITY OVER
EXTREME SW OREGON EXTENDING OUT TO NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...SO
HARBOR SOME CONCERN ABOUT ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY W OF THE
CASCADES...BUT FOR NOW SINCE THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN SOLID
AGREEMENT INDICATING THE MAIN THREAT MORE CONFINED TO THE
CASCADES...WITH STICK WITH SHOWING THE ONLY CHANCES TODAY IN THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MARINE CLOUDS THIS
MORNING COAST OR INLAND. WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND A PERSISTENCE TYPE
PATTERN...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS
HIGHS.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAKES SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING QUITE A WHILE
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO HELP SPREAD THE CONVECTION FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THE MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE COAST BETTER
TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...HOWEVER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KELSO ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY... AND
EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER THE CASCADES...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY EAST OF THE VALLEYS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE EITHER
LINGERS OVER THE AREA OR A PIECE OF TRAILING ENERGY MOVES IN AND
SLOWS ITS PROGRESS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME LEFT OVER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE MORE
SOLID AT THE COAST...AND EXPECT A BIT BETTER PENETRATION INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER SATURDAY MORNING...THAT MAY SHAVE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH VALLEY AREAS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER WESTERLY AND
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS BY A FEW
DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD SATURATE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THESE CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO ALL
COASTAL LOCATIONS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREEP UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA BY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE HIGH END
IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z
FRIDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD SHOULD LIMIT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25
KT ACROSS THE WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EVEN THOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES DOMINATING THE SEAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND....LEADING TO STEEP CONDITIONS BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE
HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 6 FT. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
      TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310958
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE
ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE
WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE CASCADES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF
ENHANCED CASCADE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE PATTERN OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CASCADES AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES INLAND ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MARINE CLOUDS THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE COAST THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS CLEARED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE NORTHERLY UPWELLING FLOW. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY INLAND EITHER TODAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST...AND INLAND SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
SAME AS ON WEDNESDAY OR EVEN UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AS EVIDENT ESPECIALLY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
THE UPPER FLOW TENDS TO STAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...ALLOWING THIS
FEATURE TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...WHILE FARTHER WEST LOOKS MORE STABLE
WITH AN INVERSION. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE BRUSHING THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES THIS MORNING SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THERE
EARLY BUT THE GFS MODEL LOOKS TOO BULLISH TAKING THIS TOO FAR
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT UPPER WIND FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAKES SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING QUITE A WHILE
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO HELP SPREAD THE CONVECTION FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THE MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE COAST BETTER
TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...HOWEVER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KELSO ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY... AND
EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER THE CASCADES...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY EAST OF THE VALLEYS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE EITHER
LINGERS OVER THE AREA OR A PIECE OF TRAILING ENERGY MOVES IN AND
SLOWS ITS PROGRESS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME LEFT OVER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE MORE
SOLID AT THE COAST...AND EXPECT A BIT BETTER PENETRATION INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER SATURDAY MORNING...THAT MAY SHAVE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH VALLEY AREAS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER WESTERLY AND
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS BY A FEW
DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW PATCHES OF LOCAL IFR MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST FROM KTMK SOUTH AFTER 11Z...BUT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
NOT EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR BY
16Z...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...VFR PREVAILING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER NE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF N WINDS...
GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS S OF CASCADE
HEAD...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TODAY TO BE
LARGELY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...WHILE OBS FROM BUOY 46050
WERE RUNNING A BIT BELOW CRITERIA YESTERDAY EVENING...AN ASCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES DOMINATING THE SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND....LEADING TO STEEP
CONDITIONS BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 6 FT. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 310958
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE
ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE
WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE CASCADES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF
ENHANCED CASCADE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE PATTERN OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CASCADES AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES INLAND ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MARINE CLOUDS THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE COAST THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS CLEARED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE NORTHERLY UPWELLING FLOW. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY INLAND EITHER TODAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST...AND INLAND SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
SAME AS ON WEDNESDAY OR EVEN UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AS EVIDENT ESPECIALLY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
THE UPPER FLOW TENDS TO STAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...ALLOWING THIS
FEATURE TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...WHILE FARTHER WEST LOOKS MORE STABLE
WITH AN INVERSION. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE BRUSHING THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES THIS MORNING SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THERE
EARLY BUT THE GFS MODEL LOOKS TOO BULLISH TAKING THIS TOO FAR
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT UPPER WIND FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAKES SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING QUITE A WHILE
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO HELP SPREAD THE CONVECTION FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THE MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE COAST BETTER
TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...HOWEVER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KELSO ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY... AND
EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER THE CASCADES...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY EAST OF THE VALLEYS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE EITHER
LINGERS OVER THE AREA OR A PIECE OF TRAILING ENERGY MOVES IN AND
SLOWS ITS PROGRESS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME LEFT OVER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE MORE
SOLID AT THE COAST...AND EXPECT A BIT BETTER PENETRATION INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER SATURDAY MORNING...THAT MAY SHAVE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH VALLEY AREAS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER WESTERLY AND
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS BY A FEW
DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW PATCHES OF LOCAL IFR MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST FROM KTMK SOUTH AFTER 11Z...BUT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
NOT EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR BY
16Z...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...VFR PREVAILING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER NE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF N WINDS...
GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS S OF CASCADE
HEAD...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TODAY TO BE
LARGELY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...WHILE OBS FROM BUOY 46050
WERE RUNNING A BIT BELOW CRITERIA YESTERDAY EVENING...AN ASCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES DOMINATING THE SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND....LEADING TO STEEP
CONDITIONS BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 6 FT. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...A FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OCCURRED THIS EVENING
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON HIGHWAY 58 BEARING THE BRUNT ONCE AGAIN.
ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR MOVED OFF THE CREST WITH RADAR INDICATED HAIL
EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE WERE UNABLE TO VERIFY A WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
STORM NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE PASS WEBCAM DID SHOW A COUPLE
FRAMES OF HAIL ACCUMULATION. SO AM VERY CONFIDENT THERE WAS AT LEAST
SOME TREACHEROUS DRIVING FOR SOME TIME ALONG THE HIGHWAY AS THE CORE
OF THE STORM WAS A FEW MILES DOWNHILL FROM THERE. THE REST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CREST WITH THE
REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT.

IN OTHER NEWS...HAVE OPTED TO PULL THE STRATUS MENTION ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO NOT
SUPPORT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING OFFSHORE...THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE
MENTIONED BELOW THAT HAS MOVED TO ABOUT 40N 133W AS OF THIS WRITING.
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROPOPAUSE FOLD
LIFT AND ACT ON PARCELS AROUND 600 MB. IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER
JUST RIGHT WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM NOT TERRIBLY LONG
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF EUGENE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING TRIGGER UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE SKY IS NOT
ALREADY COVERED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /JBONK


&&

./PREV DISC ISSUED 250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP
INLAND CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN A LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
09Z TO 12Z...AND RETURN BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
13Z AND 16Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTH WINDS...GENERALLY STRONGEST EACH
DAY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STEEP LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE SEAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BUT TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...A FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OCCURRED THIS EVENING
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON HIGHWAY 58 BEARING THE BRUNT ONCE AGAIN.
ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR MOVED OFF THE CREST WITH RADAR INDICATED HAIL
EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE WERE UNABLE TO VERIFY A WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
STORM NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE PASS WEBCAM DID SHOW A COUPLE
FRAMES OF HAIL ACCUMULATION. SO AM VERY CONFIDENT THERE WAS AT LEAST
SOME TREACHEROUS DRIVING FOR SOME TIME ALONG THE HIGHWAY AS THE CORE
OF THE STORM WAS A FEW MILES DOWNHILL FROM THERE. THE REST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CREST WITH THE
REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT.

IN OTHER NEWS...HAVE OPTED TO PULL THE STRATUS MENTION ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO NOT
SUPPORT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING OFFSHORE...THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE
MENTIONED BELOW THAT HAS MOVED TO ABOUT 40N 133W AS OF THIS WRITING.
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROPOPAUSE FOLD
LIFT AND ACT ON PARCELS AROUND 600 MB. IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER
JUST RIGHT WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM NOT TERRIBLY LONG
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF EUGENE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING TRIGGER UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE SKY IS NOT
ALREADY COVERED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /JBONK


&&

./PREV DISC ISSUED 250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP
INLAND CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN A LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
09Z TO 12Z...AND RETURN BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
13Z AND 16Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTH WINDS...GENERALLY STRONGEST EACH
DAY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STEEP LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE SEAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BUT TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 302150
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP UP AND DOWN THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES. THE GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD...AND
PERHAPS KEEPS SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL OF
OUR WATERS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE.

CONTINUED THE COMBINED SEAS WORDING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
DUE TO THE WAVES BEING PRIMARILY A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND FRESH
SWELL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SEAS TO BE CHOPPY WITH HEIGHTS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 302150
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP UP AND DOWN THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES. THE GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD...AND
PERHAPS KEEPS SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL OF
OUR WATERS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE.

CONTINUED THE COMBINED SEAS WORDING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
DUE TO THE WAVES BEING PRIMARILY A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND FRESH
SWELL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SEAS TO BE CHOPPY WITH HEIGHTS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 301658
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OFF THE WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THIS MORNING. TODAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY DOWN DAY IN
TERMS OF CASCADE CONVECTION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND WHAT
IS EXPECTED FOR THU/THU NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BATCH OF
MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR OFF THE OREGON COAST IS MAINLY
ABOVE 400 MB...SO EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS FROM THAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
TODAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS APPEAR TO BE THE UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 140W AND THE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN BEGINNING TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THESE TWO PLAYERS WILL LIKELY TEAM UP FOR
GREATER COVERAGE OF CASCADE TSTMS THU...AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER FLOW ALOFT NEVER REALLY TURNS EAST OF
SOUTH...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THIS CONVECTION WOULD
AFFECT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TEMPS REMAIN 5-10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL
INLAND WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. COAST WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CREST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON.  WEAGLE/MH

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR STRATUS AROUND
THE PORTLAND METRO AREA THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS 09Z TO 12Z THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
PANNING OUT IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES. THE GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH...AND
PERHAPS KEEPS SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL OF
OUR WATERS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

CONTINUED THE COMBINED SEAS WORDING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
DUE TO THE WAVES BEING PRIMARILY A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND FRESH
SWELL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SEAS TO BE FAIRLY CHOPPY WITH HEIGHTS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301658
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OFF THE WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THIS MORNING. TODAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY DOWN DAY IN
TERMS OF CASCADE CONVECTION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND WHAT
IS EXPECTED FOR THU/THU NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BATCH OF
MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR OFF THE OREGON COAST IS MAINLY
ABOVE 400 MB...SO EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS FROM THAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
TODAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS APPEAR TO BE THE UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 140W AND THE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN BEGINNING TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THESE TWO PLAYERS WILL LIKELY TEAM UP FOR
GREATER COVERAGE OF CASCADE TSTMS THU...AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER FLOW ALOFT NEVER REALLY TURNS EAST OF
SOUTH...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THIS CONVECTION WOULD
AFFECT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TEMPS REMAIN 5-10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL
INLAND WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. COAST WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CREST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON.  WEAGLE/MH

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR STRATUS AROUND
THE PORTLAND METRO AREA THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS 09Z TO 12Z THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
PANNING OUT IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES. THE GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH...AND
PERHAPS KEEPS SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL OF
OUR WATERS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

CONTINUED THE COMBINED SEAS WORDING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
DUE TO THE WAVES BEING PRIMARILY A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND FRESH
SWELL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SEAS TO BE FAIRLY CHOPPY WITH HEIGHTS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 300356
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BRINGS VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DRIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST AS THE AXIS FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DESCRIBED BELOW
HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE CREST. ADD IN THE PREDOMINANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERN FOR OUR SIDE HAS ENDED. STILL
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS A FINAL ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD CLIP THE WILLAMETTE PASS AREA UNDER A STRONG STORM LEFT MOVER
SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...AM SEEING A
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AT KELSO AND
CORVALLIS AIRPORTS LOWERING NEAR TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ALREADY. THUS
HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME STRATUS PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA LIKELY REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL.
IN ALL...THE GRID PACKAGE IS IN VERY REASONABLE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED
MORNING. WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO KSPB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CLOUDS WILL
REACH AS FAR AS KPDX AND KTTD. THE OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY INLAND STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY
ABOUT 16Z TOMORROW. EXPECT THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST AFTER
12Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. PYLE

&&

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED MOSTLY JUST SHORT-TERM WINDS FOR THE EVENING
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS. WITH BUOY 50 GUSTING TO
ONLY 10-15 KT...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS....BUT WILL LET NEAR SHORE SCA RIDE AS NOS STATIONS AT
TILLAMOOK BAY AND NEWPORT CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 20-30
KT. WILL LEAVE DECISIONS ABOUT SCA FOR WEDNESDAY UP TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS NEAR SHORE WINDS LOOK MARGINAL WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO SHORTEN PERIODS TO 5-6 SECONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBS FROM BUOYS 29 AND 50 AS
WELL AS LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS SEAS ARE QUITE STEEP WITH 4-5
FEET AT 5-6 SECONDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 300356
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BRINGS VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DRIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST AS THE AXIS FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DESCRIBED BELOW
HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE CREST. ADD IN THE PREDOMINANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERN FOR OUR SIDE HAS ENDED. STILL
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS A FINAL ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD CLIP THE WILLAMETTE PASS AREA UNDER A STRONG STORM LEFT MOVER
SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...AM SEEING A
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AT KELSO AND
CORVALLIS AIRPORTS LOWERING NEAR TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ALREADY. THUS
HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME STRATUS PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA LIKELY REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL.
IN ALL...THE GRID PACKAGE IS IN VERY REASONABLE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED
MORNING. WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO KSPB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CLOUDS WILL
REACH AS FAR AS KPDX AND KTTD. THE OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY INLAND STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY
ABOUT 16Z TOMORROW. EXPECT THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST AFTER
12Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. PYLE

&&

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED MOSTLY JUST SHORT-TERM WINDS FOR THE EVENING
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS. WITH BUOY 50 GUSTING TO
ONLY 10-15 KT...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS....BUT WILL LET NEAR SHORE SCA RIDE AS NOS STATIONS AT
TILLAMOOK BAY AND NEWPORT CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 20-30
KT. WILL LEAVE DECISIONS ABOUT SCA FOR WEDNESDAY UP TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS NEAR SHORE WINDS LOOK MARGINAL WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO SHORTEN PERIODS TO 5-6 SECONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBS FROM BUOYS 29 AND 50 AS
WELL AS LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS SEAS ARE QUITE STEEP WITH 4-5
FEET AT 5-6 SECONDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300356
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BRINGS VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DRIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST AS THE AXIS FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DESCRIBED BELOW
HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE CREST. ADD IN THE PREDOMINANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERN FOR OUR SIDE HAS ENDED. STILL
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS A FINAL ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD CLIP THE WILLAMETTE PASS AREA UNDER A STRONG STORM LEFT MOVER
SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...AM SEEING A
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AT KELSO AND
CORVALLIS AIRPORTS LOWERING NEAR TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ALREADY. THUS
HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME STRATUS PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA LIKELY REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL.
IN ALL...THE GRID PACKAGE IS IN VERY REASONABLE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED
MORNING. WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO KSPB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CLOUDS WILL
REACH AS FAR AS KPDX AND KTTD. THE OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY INLAND STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY
ABOUT 16Z TOMORROW. EXPECT THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST AFTER
12Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. PYLE

&&

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED MOSTLY JUST SHORT-TERM WINDS FOR THE EVENING
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS. WITH BUOY 50 GUSTING TO
ONLY 10-15 KT...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS....BUT WILL LET NEAR SHORE SCA RIDE AS NOS STATIONS AT
TILLAMOOK BAY AND NEWPORT CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 20-30
KT. WILL LEAVE DECISIONS ABOUT SCA FOR WEDNESDAY UP TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS NEAR SHORE WINDS LOOK MARGINAL WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO SHORTEN PERIODS TO 5-6 SECONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBS FROM BUOYS 29 AND 50 AS
WELL AS LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS SEAS ARE QUITE STEEP WITH 4-5
FEET AT 5-6 SECONDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292147
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MT JEFFERSON. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES DRIFTING NNE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WED WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AS A THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292147
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MT JEFFERSON. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES DRIFTING NNE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WED WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AS A THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292147
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MT JEFFERSON. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES DRIFTING NNE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WED WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AS A THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291009
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT
IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS
EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG THE S WA AND N AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THIS
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND 19-20Z. MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ALONG KONP...BUT DO EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR AT
LEAST BRIEFLY. COASTAL STRATUS RETURNS AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY
N WINDS ALONG THE COAST 19Z-03Z. DRY SW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES
SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TAF SITES NEXT
24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...FEW CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WATERS THIS
WEEK AS N TO NW FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL GIVEN HIGH PRES OVER THE
NE PAC AND A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROF OVER NW CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME SW OREGON. A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES IN SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT...BUT LOOKS LIKE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONGEST OVER THE
INNER WATERS. WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN SURFACE PATTERN FOR
TODAY...MAINTAINED A LARGELY PERSISTENCE BASED FCST FOR WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND EXPECT WIND GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO TOP OUT
AROUND 20 KT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
ONLY SMALL BACKGROUND SWELL. THUS SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND
DOMINATED THROUGH THE WEEK AND CONDITIONS MAY BE CHOPPY AT
TIMES...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS.   CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
   PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
   TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 290425
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE
SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.UPDATE...HAD ONE GOOD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LANE COUNTY AND LASTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF A COUPLE HOURS. PRECIP
ESTIMATES FROM THE MEDFORD RADAR PUT UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON
THE TUMBLEBUG COMPLEX BURN SCAR FROM 2009. GROUND TRUTH OF 0.54
INCHES AT A NEARBY RAWS AT LEAST GIVES CREDENCE TO THOSE ESTIMATES.
ISSUED A COUPLE NOWCASTS AND HIGHLIGHTED CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALIZED
DEBRIS FLOW COMING OUT OF TUMBLEBUG CREEK AND ECHO CREEK. IF ANY
FLOWS DID OCCUR...THEY ULTIMATELY COULD DRAIN INTO THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE WILLAMETTE MIDDLE FORK. IN OTHER AREAS...THE COASTAL STRATUS
HAS PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND BRINGING VERY PATCHY FOG WITH
NEWPORT AIRPORT MAINLY REPORTING IN THE 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE RANGE,
BUT BRIEFLY FALLING BELOW 1/4 MILE A COUPLE HOURS AGO. AS THE SEAS
BREEZE EASES UP THIS EVENING...EXPECT THERE TO BE ADDITIONAL PATCHY
FOG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE DOUBTS
THE STRATUS WILL PUSH VERY FAR INLAND PER SHORT TERM MODEL DATA BUT
WILL GIVE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT IN BRINGING
THE CLOUDS IN TO AROUND KELSO. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 204 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
THAT PRODUCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
500 MB HEIGHTS. A MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL
GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND MAY NOT CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE
TOO MUCH MORE. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON IN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY...INCLUDING
JUST EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT NOT SURE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY
LIGHTNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM INLAND WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK ONTO THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINING QUITE LOW AND SHALLOW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
NEAR 1 INCH. THUS EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING
SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND
TO BE A BIT DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL...AND
THE GFS MODEL EVEN DEVELOPS A QPF BULLSEYE...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST GRIDS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR STRATUS AND FOG PUSHED ONTO THE CENTRAL OR
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IFR/LIFR STRATUS SHOULD ALSO PUSH INTO
THE N OR AND S WA COAST...INCLUDING KAST...BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INLAND SITES TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS AS
HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...N/NW FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRES OVER
THE NE PAC AND A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROF OVER NW CALIF AND
FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. DECIDED TO
END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN...BUT ISSUED ANOTHER FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE INNER WATERS.

SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A BIT CHOPPY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 290425
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE
SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.UPDATE...HAD ONE GOOD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LANE COUNTY AND LASTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF A COUPLE HOURS. PRECIP
ESTIMATES FROM THE MEDFORD RADAR PUT UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON
THE TUMBLEBUG COMPLEX BURN SCAR FROM 2009. GROUND TRUTH OF 0.54
INCHES AT A NEARBY RAWS AT LEAST GIVES CREDENCE TO THOSE ESTIMATES.
ISSUED A COUPLE NOWCASTS AND HIGHLIGHTED CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALIZED
DEBRIS FLOW COMING OUT OF TUMBLEBUG CREEK AND ECHO CREEK. IF ANY
FLOWS DID OCCUR...THEY ULTIMATELY COULD DRAIN INTO THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE WILLAMETTE MIDDLE FORK. IN OTHER AREAS...THE COASTAL STRATUS
HAS PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND BRINGING VERY PATCHY FOG WITH
NEWPORT AIRPORT MAINLY REPORTING IN THE 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE RANGE,
BUT BRIEFLY FALLING BELOW 1/4 MILE A COUPLE HOURS AGO. AS THE SEAS
BREEZE EASES UP THIS EVENING...EXPECT THERE TO BE ADDITIONAL PATCHY
FOG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE DOUBTS
THE STRATUS WILL PUSH VERY FAR INLAND PER SHORT TERM MODEL DATA BUT
WILL GIVE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT IN BRINGING
THE CLOUDS IN TO AROUND KELSO. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 204 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
THAT PRODUCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
500 MB HEIGHTS. A MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL
GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND MAY NOT CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE
TOO MUCH MORE. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON IN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY...INCLUDING
JUST EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT NOT SURE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY
LIGHTNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM INLAND WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK ONTO THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINING QUITE LOW AND SHALLOW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
NEAR 1 INCH. THUS EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING
SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND
TO BE A BIT DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL...AND
THE GFS MODEL EVEN DEVELOPS A QPF BULLSEYE...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST GRIDS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR STRATUS AND FOG PUSHED ONTO THE CENTRAL OR
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IFR/LIFR STRATUS SHOULD ALSO PUSH INTO
THE N OR AND S WA COAST...INCLUDING KAST...BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INLAND SITES TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS AS
HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...N/NW FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRES OVER
THE NE PAC AND A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROF OVER NW CALIF AND
FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. DECIDED TO
END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN...BUT ISSUED ANOTHER FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE INNER WATERS.

SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A BIT CHOPPY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 282104
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE
SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES THAT
PRODUCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS. A MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL
GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND MAY NOT CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE
TOO MUCH MORE. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON IN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY...INCLUDING
JUST EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT NOT SURE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY
LIGHTNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM INLAND WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK ONTO THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINING QUITE LOW AND SHALLOW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
NEAR 1 INCH. THUS EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING
SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND
TO BE A BIT DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL...AND
THE GFS MODEL EVEN DEVELOPS A QPF BULLSEYE...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST GRIDS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS
MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE DECREASED POPS
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED CONFIDENCE OF
THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR AND OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AFTER 00Z TUE. HIGH PRES OVER REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CIRRUS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO ADVERSE WX IMPACTS...WITH VFR. /27
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF
AND FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER S OREGON COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS EASE A TAD ON TUE AND WED.

SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS S OF TILLAMOOK WHERE
DURATION OF NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE SEAS.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 282104
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE
SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES THAT
PRODUCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS. A MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL
GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND MAY NOT CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE
TOO MUCH MORE. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON IN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY...INCLUDING
JUST EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT NOT SURE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY
LIGHTNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM INLAND WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK ONTO THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINING QUITE LOW AND SHALLOW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
NEAR 1 INCH. THUS EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING
SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND
TO BE A BIT DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL...AND
THE GFS MODEL EVEN DEVELOPS A QPF BULLSEYE...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST GRIDS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS
MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE DECREASED POPS
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED CONFIDENCE OF
THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR AND OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AFTER 00Z TUE. HIGH PRES OVER REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CIRRUS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO ADVERSE WX IMPACTS...WITH VFR. /27
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF
AND FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER S OREGON COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS EASE A TAD ON TUE AND WED.

SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS S OF TILLAMOOK WHERE
DURATION OF NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE SEAS.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





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