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000
FXUS66 KPQR 190305
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
803 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. BUT EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW
OREGON COAST ON FRI WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS A DYING
FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON. THEN DRY AND WARM WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FOR
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES. BUT MAY STILL HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND...SO WILL LEAVE 20 PCT PROBABILITY FOR TONIGHT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CLEAR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MIDDAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
PRIMARILY THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. AS A RESULT... AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PAST 06Z. KONP AND AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST HOWEVER
MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z... AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z FRI. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE REST OF NW OREGON AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...MOST LIKELY AT THE N AND W TAF SITES. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY FRI MORNING EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE
SHORT LIVED WITH MOST AREAS GOING TO VFR BY 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN
10Z AND 13Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z FRI.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
MIX OF A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT SAT IN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 190305
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
803 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. BUT EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW
OREGON COAST ON FRI WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS A DYING
FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON. THEN DRY AND WARM WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FOR
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES. BUT MAY STILL HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND...SO WILL LEAVE 20 PCT PROBABILITY FOR TONIGHT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CLEAR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MIDDAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
PRIMARILY THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. AS A RESULT... AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PAST 06Z. KONP AND AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST HOWEVER
MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z... AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z FRI. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE REST OF NW OREGON AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...MOST LIKELY AT THE N AND W TAF SITES. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY FRI MORNING EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE
SHORT LIVED WITH MOST AREAS GOING TO VFR BY 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN
10Z AND 13Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z FRI.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
MIX OF A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT SAT IN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 190305
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
803 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. BUT EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW
OREGON COAST ON FRI WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS A DYING
FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON. THEN DRY AND WARM WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FOR
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES. BUT MAY STILL HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND...SO WILL LEAVE 20 PCT PROBABILITY FOR TONIGHT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CLEAR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MIDDAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
PRIMARILY THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. AS A RESULT... AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PAST 06Z. KONP AND AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST HOWEVER
MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z... AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z FRI. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE REST OF NW OREGON AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...MOST LIKELY AT THE N AND W TAF SITES. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY FRI MORNING EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE
SHORT LIVED WITH MOST AREAS GOING TO VFR BY 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN
10Z AND 13Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z FRI.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
MIX OF A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT SAT IN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 182203
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NORTH OREGON
COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
RETURN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS THE REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN A HUNDREDTH AND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS NOT EVEN MEASURING. FORTUNATELY...A FEW
AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN OUT
OF THIS STORM...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WILLAPA HILLS...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES...BUT ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE MINIMAL.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MIDDAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
PRIMARILY THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...ALBEIT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. AS A
RESULT...AT LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES IF THEY
ARE NOT CONTAINED. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER NW OREGON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL TREND OF RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. TRENDS EXPECTED TO REVERSE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...AND MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING THROUGH 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z FRI.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A MIX
OF A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT SAT IN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 182203
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NORTH OREGON
COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
RETURN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS THE REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN A HUNDREDTH AND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS NOT EVEN MEASURING. FORTUNATELY...A FEW
AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN OUT
OF THIS STORM...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WILLAPA HILLS...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES...BUT ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE MINIMAL.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MIDDAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
PRIMARILY THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...ALBEIT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. AS A
RESULT...AT LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES IF THEY
ARE NOT CONTAINED. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER NW OREGON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL TREND OF RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. TRENDS EXPECTED TO REVERSE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...AND MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING THROUGH 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z FRI.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A MIX
OF A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT SAT IN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 182203
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NORTH OREGON
COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
RETURN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS THE REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN A HUNDREDTH AND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS NOT EVEN MEASURING. FORTUNATELY...A FEW
AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN OUT
OF THIS STORM...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WILLAPA HILLS...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES...BUT ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE MINIMAL.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MIDDAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
PRIMARILY THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...ALBEIT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. AS A
RESULT...AT LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES IF THEY
ARE NOT CONTAINED. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER NW OREGON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL TREND OF RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. TRENDS EXPECTED TO REVERSE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...AND MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING THROUGH 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z FRI.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A MIX
OF A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT SAT IN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 181639
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN
COOL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER OVER NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SLICK ROADS
HAVE CAUSED NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AROUND THE PORTLAND METRO
AREA THIS MORNING. ANYWAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE THAT MODELS SUGGEST
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THAT AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE
AND CASCADES. WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH PRESURE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...MAY ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH...AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF RAIN STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST
DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY. IT HAS PRODUCED
ANYWHERE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THIS BAND WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY
FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WETTING RAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THIS BAND OF RAINS
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED...AND IT IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...QPF AMOUNTS WERE KEPT
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN LANE COUNTY.

BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.  A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FRIDAY...BUT ANY RAIN THAT
FALLS FROM IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WARM WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR
THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NO. CALIF COAST STREAMS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY INTO THE EVENING. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE AND CIGS WILL LIFT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST TODAY WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND FRI MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
OCCASIONALMVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AFTER 11Z- 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MIGHT
GUST TO 15 OR EVEN 20 KT.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FT TODAY AND 5 FT FRIDAY WITH A
MIXTURE OF 16 TO 18 SECOND SOUTHWEST SWELL AND AROUND 10 SECOND
NORTHWEST SWELL. SEAS THEN BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT SATURDAY IN THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT
SUNDAY. TW/PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 181639
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN
COOL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER OVER NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SLICK ROADS
HAVE CAUSED NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AROUND THE PORTLAND METRO
AREA THIS MORNING. ANYWAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE THAT MODELS SUGGEST
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THAT AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE
AND CASCADES. WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH PRESURE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...MAY ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH...AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF RAIN STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST
DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY. IT HAS PRODUCED
ANYWHERE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THIS BAND WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY
FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WETTING RAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THIS BAND OF RAINS
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED...AND IT IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...QPF AMOUNTS WERE KEPT
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN LANE COUNTY.

BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.  A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FRIDAY...BUT ANY RAIN THAT
FALLS FROM IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WARM WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR
THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NO. CALIF COAST STREAMS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY INTO THE EVENING. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE AND CIGS WILL LIFT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST TODAY WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND FRI MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
OCCASIONALMVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AFTER 11Z- 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MIGHT
GUST TO 15 OR EVEN 20 KT.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FT TODAY AND 5 FT FRIDAY WITH A
MIXTURE OF 16 TO 18 SECOND SOUTHWEST SWELL AND AROUND 10 SECOND
NORTHWEST SWELL. SEAS THEN BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT SATURDAY IN THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT
SUNDAY. TW/PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 181003
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OFF THE N CALIF COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IS IT
MOVES INTO N CALIF THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS...WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH SAGGING OFF THE WEST COAST
IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITHIN THE
TROUGH LAY OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHED A MILD AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH 2 AM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCARCE. THE SOUTH WA COAST AND NORTH
OREGON COAST RECEIVED AROUND 0.10 INCH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE FROM A WEAK LOW OFF
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH SO PCPN
SHOULD TAPER OFF SOON. THE LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS KICKING A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHEAST...RADAR SHOWING A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BAND
OF SHOWERS OVER SW OREGON. THIS MAY AFFECT LANE COUNTY FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. OVERALL THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS THE TROUGH TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN CA WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDING AND INSTABILITY INDICIES DO NOT
SUPPORT CONVECTION...AS WELL A WESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE DRYING.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUROCKMAN /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY
LOWER A BIT AS THIS HAPPENS...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY
VFR. THE COAST MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST TONIGHT...SPREADING
INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
AS WELL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS TODAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND.
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 10Z TO 12Z...CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MIGHT
GUST TO 15 OR EVEN 20 KT.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FT TODAY AND 5 FT FRIDAY WITH A
MIXTURE OF 16 TO 18 SECOND SOUTHWEST SWELL AND AROUND 10 SECOND
NORTHWEST SWELL. SEAS THEN BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT SATURDAY IN THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT
SUNDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 181003
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OFF THE N CALIF COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IS IT
MOVES INTO N CALIF THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS...WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH SAGGING OFF THE WEST COAST
IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITHIN THE
TROUGH LAY OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHED A MILD AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH 2 AM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCARCE. THE SOUTH WA COAST AND NORTH
OREGON COAST RECEIVED AROUND 0.10 INCH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE FROM A WEAK LOW OFF
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH SO PCPN
SHOULD TAPER OFF SOON. THE LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS KICKING A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHEAST...RADAR SHOWING A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BAND
OF SHOWERS OVER SW OREGON. THIS MAY AFFECT LANE COUNTY FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. OVERALL THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS THE TROUGH TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN CA WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDING AND INSTABILITY INDICIES DO NOT
SUPPORT CONVECTION...AS WELL A WESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE DRYING.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUROCKMAN /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY
LOWER A BIT AS THIS HAPPENS...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY
VFR. THE COAST MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST TONIGHT...SPREADING
INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
AS WELL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS TODAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND.
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 10Z TO 12Z...CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MIGHT
GUST TO 15 OR EVEN 20 KT.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FT TODAY AND 5 FT FRIDAY WITH A
MIXTURE OF 16 TO 18 SECOND SOUTHWEST SWELL AND AROUND 10 SECOND
NORTHWEST SWELL. SEAS THEN BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT SATURDAY IN THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT
SUNDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 180335
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
834 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OFF THE N CALIF COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IS IT
MOVES INTO N CALIF THROUGH THU EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS...WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES IN OVERALL FORECASTS AND TRENDS. MOST
SHOWERS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO BE OVER SW OREGON AND ALONG THE
COAST. DECENT RAINFALL OVER SW WASHINGTON AND WILLAPA HILLS WHERE
0.25 INCH FELL AT HUCKLEBERRY RAWS IN HILLS ABOVE LONGVIEW...AND
ABOUT 0.15 INCH NEAR HOQUIAM. NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND TRACE AMOUNTS OVER THE INLAND
VALLEYS. OVERALL...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN BEST THREAT OF ACTUAL RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER
COASTAL AREAS DOWN INTO SW OREGON.

WILL MAINTAIN MINOR THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS EVENING
OVER LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS WEAK ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET WILL BRUSH THAT AREA TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL OR MORE THAN
0.01 INCH LOOKS LIKELY ON THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES.
WETTING RAINS WHICH ARE RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH STILL DO NOT
APPEAR ALL THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUROCKEMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM N OVER
WESTERN OREGON THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WERE PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS
THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SOME SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG ALONG THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH 18Z...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRI MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING N UP THE
COAST LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN N WINDS...POTENTIALLY
UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. A RETURN
TO QUIETER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING
SAT COULD DRIVE SEAS UP CLOSE TO 10 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 172208
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD THAN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. WHILE HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND
POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING
THE REGION IN DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. WHILE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN OF RAIN OR LESS
HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS REGION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTINCT PV ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET THAT WILL BRUSH OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER...AND MAINLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TO FALL ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES THURSDAY. WETTING RAINS STILL DO NOT APPEAR ALL
THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...INCREASING MID LEVELS CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING
COASTAL SITES. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...BUT IT IS NOT AS BAD AS
YESTERDAY. SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT. SCATTERED CIGS LIKELY FORMING IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. /27


&&


.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE FRIDAY...AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WAVE TRAINS AS NW SWELL WILL
MOSTLY DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE VARYING AND
SHIFTING FROM SW TO W BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS RUNNING 6
TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE...WITH PERIODS AROUND 13
SECONDS.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT.


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 172208
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD THAN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. WHILE HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND
POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING
THE REGION IN DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. WHILE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN OF RAIN OR LESS
HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS REGION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTINCT PV ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET THAT WILL BRUSH OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER...AND MAINLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TO FALL ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES THURSDAY. WETTING RAINS STILL DO NOT APPEAR ALL
THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...INCREASING MID LEVELS CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING
COASTAL SITES. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...BUT IT IS NOT AS BAD AS
YESTERDAY. SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT. SCATTERED CIGS LIKELY FORMING IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. /27


&&


.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE FRIDAY...AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WAVE TRAINS AS NW SWELL WILL
MOSTLY DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE VARYING AND
SHIFTING FROM SW TO W BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS RUNNING 6
TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE...WITH PERIODS AROUND 13
SECONDS.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT.


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 171634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
930 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE HAZY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION
COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO
EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING THE REGION IN DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON THIS MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
CONSIST OF VIRGA. HOWEVER...EVERY NOW AND AGAIN...A STRONGER BAND OF
SHOWERS IS PRODUCES SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE. THESE HIGH BASED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE PERSISTENT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE
AN OCCASIONAL HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH HAS BEEN MEASURED SO FAR.
OVERALL...EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WX GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

THIS MORNINGS KSLE SOUNDING INDICATES A LAYER OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.
THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS OBSERVED SO
FAR. WHILE IT HAS NOT BEEN DEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SO WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INHERITED.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RIDE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE WX MENTION WAS SWITCHED OVER
FROM BRIEF SPRINKLES TO A MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN IT APPEARS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL STAND A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHEST TOWARD THE COAST...AND LIKELY LOWEST TOWARDS
THE CASCADES. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL FRONT
WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SO POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE EC PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH
IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. THIS REMAINS THE MAIN REASON WE DO NOT HAVE HIGHER POPS IN
THE FORECAST THAN PERHAPS IT WOULD APPEAR WE SHOULD GIVEN NAM AND
GFS QPF FIELDS. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT HAS SPREAD SOME
LIGHT MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE LIGHT
MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 75 TO
80 RANGE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A STRONGER AREA
OF VORTICITY AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD IN MAINLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME WITH CHANCE IN MANY AREAS AND SOME
SMALL AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE MAIN LOW CENTER THEN TENDS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
SCATTERED ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT LIKELY IN
THE OREGON CASCADES.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR DRYING AND
SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER. THERE IS ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THAT MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH...FINALLY CLEARING IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
START TO RISE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES WILL TEND TO SPREAD
OUT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. EAST WINDS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING THE
SMOKE BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A
RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR PERSISTS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME LIGHT RAIN PUSHED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE.
WILL SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING IN
VALLEYS TO E AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES
EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING IN THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND LESS
THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING
PERIODS...FROM THE NW...W AND SW. EXPECT NW SWELL TO DOMINATE
TODAY AT AROUND 15 SECONDS. OVERALL SEAS RUNNING 6 TO 8 FT...WITH
HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 171634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
930 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE HAZY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION
COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO
EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING THE REGION IN DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON THIS MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
CONSIST OF VIRGA. HOWEVER...EVERY NOW AND AGAIN...A STRONGER BAND OF
SHOWERS IS PRODUCES SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE. THESE HIGH BASED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE PERSISTENT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE
AN OCCASIONAL HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH HAS BEEN MEASURED SO FAR.
OVERALL...EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WX GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

THIS MORNINGS KSLE SOUNDING INDICATES A LAYER OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.
THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS OBSERVED SO
FAR. WHILE IT HAS NOT BEEN DEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SO WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INHERITED.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RIDE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE WX MENTION WAS SWITCHED OVER
FROM BRIEF SPRINKLES TO A MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN IT APPEARS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL STAND A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHEST TOWARD THE COAST...AND LIKELY LOWEST TOWARDS
THE CASCADES. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL FRONT
WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SO POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE EC PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH
IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. THIS REMAINS THE MAIN REASON WE DO NOT HAVE HIGHER POPS IN
THE FORECAST THAN PERHAPS IT WOULD APPEAR WE SHOULD GIVEN NAM AND
GFS QPF FIELDS. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT HAS SPREAD SOME
LIGHT MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE LIGHT
MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 75 TO
80 RANGE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A STRONGER AREA
OF VORTICITY AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD IN MAINLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME WITH CHANCE IN MANY AREAS AND SOME
SMALL AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE MAIN LOW CENTER THEN TENDS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
SCATTERED ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT LIKELY IN
THE OREGON CASCADES.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR DRYING AND
SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER. THERE IS ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THAT MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH...FINALLY CLEARING IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
START TO RISE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES WILL TEND TO SPREAD
OUT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. EAST WINDS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING THE
SMOKE BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A
RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR PERSISTS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME LIGHT RAIN PUSHED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE.
WILL SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING IN
VALLEYS TO E AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES
EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING IN THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND LESS
THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING
PERIODS...FROM THE NW...W AND SW. EXPECT NW SWELL TO DOMINATE
TODAY AT AROUND 15 SECONDS. OVERALL SEAS RUNNING 6 TO 8 FT...WITH
HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 170957
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND A FEW SURGES OF LIGHT MOISTURE INTO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY. THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AID THE FORMATION OF MORE SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN PART OF THE LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE LOW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST THIS
WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP THE COAST AGAIN...FOR A RETURN
OF DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS BY MID
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND
DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES
AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT HAS SPREAD SOME
LIGHT MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE LIGHT
MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 75 TO
80 RANGE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A STRONGER AREA
OF VORTICITY AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD IN MAINLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME WITH CHANCE IN MANY AREAS AND SOME
SMALL AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE MAIN LOW CENTER THEN TENDS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
SCATTERED ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT LIKELY IN
THE OREGON CASCADES.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR DRYING AND
SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER. THERE IS ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THAT MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH...FINALLY CLEARING IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
START TO RISE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES WILL TEND TO SPREAD
OUT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. EAST WINDS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING THE
SMOKE BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A
RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PROVIDING FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH QUITE WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT...THOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY
ELIMINATE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG IN BAYS AND COAST RANGE VALLEYS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE. WILL
SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY
AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING IN VALLEYS TO E
AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT FEW DAYS...SMOKE FROM
FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT N TO NE...AFFECTING
SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH CIGS LIKELY FORMING
IN THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND LESS THAN
15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...
FROM THE NW...W AND SW. EXPECT NW SWELL TO DOMINATE TODAY AT AROUND
15 SECONDS. OVERALL SEAS RUNNING 6 TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER
OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL LOW
PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 170957
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND A FEW SURGES OF LIGHT MOISTURE INTO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY. THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AID THE FORMATION OF MORE SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN PART OF THE LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE LOW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST THIS
WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP THE COAST AGAIN...FOR A RETURN
OF DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS BY MID
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND
DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES
AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT HAS SPREAD SOME
LIGHT MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE LIGHT
MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 75 TO
80 RANGE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A STRONGER AREA
OF VORTICITY AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD IN MAINLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME WITH CHANCE IN MANY AREAS AND SOME
SMALL AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE MAIN LOW CENTER THEN TENDS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
SCATTERED ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT LIKELY IN
THE OREGON CASCADES.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR DRYING AND
SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER. THERE IS ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THAT MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH...FINALLY CLEARING IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
START TO RISE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES WILL TEND TO SPREAD
OUT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. EAST WINDS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING THE
SMOKE BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A
RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PROVIDING FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH QUITE WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT...THOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY
ELIMINATE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG IN BAYS AND COAST RANGE VALLEYS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE. WILL
SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY
AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING IN VALLEYS TO E
AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT FEW DAYS...SMOKE FROM
FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT N TO NE...AFFECTING
SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH CIGS LIKELY FORMING
IN THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND LESS THAN
15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...
FROM THE NW...W AND SW. EXPECT NW SWELL TO DOMINATE TODAY AT AROUND
15 SECONDS. OVERALL SEAS RUNNING 6 TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER
OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL LOW
PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 170333
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
832 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT...ALREADY SEEING SOME
ECHOES ON RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING BUT ITS STILL MOST LIKELY VIRGA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION HITTING THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY REACH THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
SEE PATCHY LOW STRATUS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST NEAR NEWPORT. OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW SPREADS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. /27

THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
SMOKE. CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH YOUR STATE AIR QUALITY AGENCY FOR THE
LATEST AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT VALLEY LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY
DOWN RIVER OF THESE FIRES LIKE ESTACADA AND OAKRIDGE TO EXPERIENCE
PROBLEMS WITH SMOKE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIS WEEK.
FORTUNATELY...WEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DISPERSE
SMOKE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FIRES ARE GENERALLY MOST ACTIVE....TO THE
EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON STATE LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPLITTING AND NOSE DIVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RATHER MESSY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME...SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE PERHAPS
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS VERY LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAY SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND RESULT IN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN WRINGING OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD INTO THE LOW
END LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE TOPOGRAPHY...AND
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE AMPLE ON THURSDAY...BUT IF WE DO GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT...CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY SOLID THURSDAY SO LEFT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OVERALL...CONTINUE TO REMAIN NERVOUS THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM TO TRY AND
BREAK DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT BODE WELL.

FOR FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL
TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY...AND THE AREA WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING
TREND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A RETURN TO
EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT
BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE
DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AND
BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...RATHER TRANQUIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. ONSHORE GRADIENT IS QUITE LIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG IN BAYS AND COAST RANGE VALLEYS TONIGHT. WILL SEE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON WED...ALONG WITH A SHOWER OR TWO.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE.
WILL SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN FAR EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING
IN VALLEYS TO E AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT
FEW DAYS...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIF WILL DRIFT
N TO NE...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON WED.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING
PERIODS...PREDOMINATELY FROM THE W AT AROUND 15 SEC. OVERALL SEAS
RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 170333
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
832 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT...ALREADY SEEING SOME
ECHOES ON RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING BUT ITS STILL MOST LIKELY VIRGA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION HITTING THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY REACH THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
SEE PATCHY LOW STRATUS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST NEAR NEWPORT. OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW SPREADS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. /27

THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
SMOKE. CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH YOUR STATE AIR QUALITY AGENCY FOR THE
LATEST AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT VALLEY LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY
DOWN RIVER OF THESE FIRES LIKE ESTACADA AND OAKRIDGE TO EXPERIENCE
PROBLEMS WITH SMOKE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIS WEEK.
FORTUNATELY...WEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DISPERSE
SMOKE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FIRES ARE GENERALLY MOST ACTIVE....TO THE
EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON STATE LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPLITTING AND NOSE DIVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RATHER MESSY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME...SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE PERHAPS
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS VERY LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAY SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND RESULT IN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN WRINGING OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD INTO THE LOW
END LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE TOPOGRAPHY...AND
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE AMPLE ON THURSDAY...BUT IF WE DO GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT...CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY SOLID THURSDAY SO LEFT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OVERALL...CONTINUE TO REMAIN NERVOUS THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM TO TRY AND
BREAK DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT BODE WELL.

FOR FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL
TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY...AND THE AREA WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING
TREND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A RETURN TO
EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT
BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE
DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AND
BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...RATHER TRANQUIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. ONSHORE GRADIENT IS QUITE LIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG IN BAYS AND COAST RANGE VALLEYS TONIGHT. WILL SEE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON WED...ALONG WITH A SHOWER OR TWO.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE.
WILL SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN FAR EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING
IN VALLEYS TO E AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT
FEW DAYS...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIF WILL DRIFT
N TO NE...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON WED.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING
PERIODS...PREDOMINATELY FROM THE W AT AROUND 15 SEC. OVERALL SEAS
RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 162152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING THE CWA
UNDER DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST ROUND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING
NORTHWARD OFF THE OREGON COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FALLING OUT OF
THESE CLOUDS...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS ALMOST ENTIRELY VIRGA. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF VIRGA CURRENTLY OFF CAPE MENDOCINO SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE
OREGON COAST THIS EVENING.

THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
SMOKE. CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH YOUR STATE AIR QUALITY AGENCY FOR THE
LATEST AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT VALLEY LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY
DOWN RIVER OF THESE FIRES LIKE ESTACADA AND OAKRIDGE TO EXPERIENCE
PROBLEMS WITH SMOKE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIS WEEK.
FORTUNATELY...WEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DISPERSE
SMOKE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FIRES ARE GENERALLY MOST ACTIVE....TO THE
EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON STATE LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPLITTING AND NOSE DIVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RATHER MESSY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME...SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE PERHAPS
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS VERY LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAY SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND RESULT IN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN WRINGING OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD INTO THE LOW
END LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE TOPOGRAPHY...AND
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE AMPLE ON THURSDAY...BUT IF WE DO GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT...CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY SOLID THURSDAY SO LEFT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OVERALL...CONTINUE TO REMAIN NERVOUS THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM TO TRY AND
BREAK DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT BODE WELL.

FOR FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL
TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY...AND THE AREA WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING
TREND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL
SHOW A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SE WINDS HAVE HELPED CLEAR THE MARINE CLOUDS
SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR
CIGS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 0Z. ONSHORE
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH
THE COASTAL GAPS NEAR KONP EARLY THIS EVENING...AND UP THE LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARDS KSPB.. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PREVENT THE CLOUDS TO MOVE MUCH INLAND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MARINE CLOUDS ACTUALLY PUSH AWAY
FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG AROUND
09Z...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR KEUG CIGS.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL GENERATE MVFR CIGS IN VCNTY OF
THE FIRE. THIS SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MAY EXPAND ITS
COVERAGE WHEN THE WINDS CALM LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY WED
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS
WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW...AND SW WITH THE OVERALL WAVE
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING TONIGHT. SEA HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FT CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF N WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 162152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING THE CWA
UNDER DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST ROUND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING
NORTHWARD OFF THE OREGON COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FALLING OUT OF
THESE CLOUDS...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS ALMOST ENTIRELY VIRGA. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF VIRGA CURRENTLY OFF CAPE MENDOCINO SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE
OREGON COAST THIS EVENING.

THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
SMOKE. CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH YOUR STATE AIR QUALITY AGENCY FOR THE
LATEST AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT VALLEY LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY
DOWN RIVER OF THESE FIRES LIKE ESTACADA AND OAKRIDGE TO EXPERIENCE
PROBLEMS WITH SMOKE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIS WEEK.
FORTUNATELY...WEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DISPERSE
SMOKE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FIRES ARE GENERALLY MOST ACTIVE....TO THE
EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON STATE LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPLITTING AND NOSE DIVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RATHER MESSY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME...SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE PERHAPS
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS VERY LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAY SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND RESULT IN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN WRINGING OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD INTO THE LOW
END LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE TOPOGRAPHY...AND
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE AMPLE ON THURSDAY...BUT IF WE DO GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT...CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY SOLID THURSDAY SO LEFT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OVERALL...CONTINUE TO REMAIN NERVOUS THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM TO TRY AND
BREAK DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT BODE WELL.

FOR FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL
TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY...AND THE AREA WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING
TREND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL
SHOW A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SE WINDS HAVE HELPED CLEAR THE MARINE CLOUDS
SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR
CIGS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 0Z. ONSHORE
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH
THE COASTAL GAPS NEAR KONP EARLY THIS EVENING...AND UP THE LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARDS KSPB.. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PREVENT THE CLOUDS TO MOVE MUCH INLAND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MARINE CLOUDS ACTUALLY PUSH AWAY
FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG AROUND
09Z...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR KEUG CIGS.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL GENERATE MVFR CIGS IN VCNTY OF
THE FIRE. THIS SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MAY EXPAND ITS
COVERAGE WHEN THE WINDS CALM LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY WED
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS
WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW...AND SW WITH THE OVERALL WAVE
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING TONIGHT. SEA HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FT CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF N WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 161613
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT FIRE OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY APPROACH 90F AGAIN FOR
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PUGET SOUND. THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. UNDERNEATH
THESE CLOUDS...IT IS APPARENT THAT MARINE STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE
COASTAL GAPS...MAKING IT INTO KELSO/LONGVIEW AND SCAPPOOSE...WHERE
IT APPEARS THEY WILL STALL OUT. ALTHOUGH...A FEW CLOUDS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE PORTLAND METRO FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.

BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS RESULTED
IN MARINE CLOUDS ALREADY THINNING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
EVEN THOUGH MARINE STRATUS BRIEFLY MADE IT INTO EUGENE...CORVALLIS
AND SALEM EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THESE
CLOUDS HAS BEEN PINCHED OFF...AND ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY. THE NET RESULT IS
THAT SKY COVER WAS LOWERED CONSIDERABLY FOR MUCH OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADES TODAY.

AS THE EAST SIDE HEATS UP THIS AFTERNOON...MODEST SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD KICK UP. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOW MOST OF
THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE INTO THE CASCADES AND
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND POINTS EAST...AND PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

A SPLITTY TROUGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. CONTINUE TO
THINK THAT MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS OVERDONE...BUT WILL
EVALUATE FURTHER WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE IS SENDING HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
EVALUATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS MARINE STRATUS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST WITH MVFR CIGS KTMK AND NORTHWARD. THERE WERE MVFR
CIGS BRIEFLY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT THEY ARE
ALREADY CLEARING. BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOWS THAT STRATUS
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY HAS MADE IT KSPB...BUT IS STARTING
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST. MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 0Z. ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS NEAR
KONP...OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THE
CLOUDS TO MOVE MUCH INLAND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MARINE
CLOUDS ACTUALLY PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG AROUND 09Z...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR KEUG CIGS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT WEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 20Z...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 8Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO
SW WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE
WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW
W AND SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
N WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 161613
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT FIRE OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY APPROACH 90F AGAIN FOR
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PUGET SOUND. THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. UNDERNEATH
THESE CLOUDS...IT IS APPARENT THAT MARINE STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE
COASTAL GAPS...MAKING IT INTO KELSO/LONGVIEW AND SCAPPOOSE...WHERE
IT APPEARS THEY WILL STALL OUT. ALTHOUGH...A FEW CLOUDS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE PORTLAND METRO FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.

BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS RESULTED
IN MARINE CLOUDS ALREADY THINNING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
EVEN THOUGH MARINE STRATUS BRIEFLY MADE IT INTO EUGENE...CORVALLIS
AND SALEM EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THESE
CLOUDS HAS BEEN PINCHED OFF...AND ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY. THE NET RESULT IS
THAT SKY COVER WAS LOWERED CONSIDERABLY FOR MUCH OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADES TODAY.

AS THE EAST SIDE HEATS UP THIS AFTERNOON...MODEST SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD KICK UP. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOW MOST OF
THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE INTO THE CASCADES AND
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND POINTS EAST...AND PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

A SPLITTY TROUGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. CONTINUE TO
THINK THAT MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS OVERDONE...BUT WILL
EVALUATE FURTHER WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE IS SENDING HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
EVALUATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS MARINE STRATUS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST WITH MVFR CIGS KTMK AND NORTHWARD. THERE WERE MVFR
CIGS BRIEFLY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT THEY ARE
ALREADY CLEARING. BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOWS THAT STRATUS
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY HAS MADE IT KSPB...BUT IS STARTING
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST. MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 0Z. ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS NEAR
KONP...OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THE
CLOUDS TO MOVE MUCH INLAND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MARINE
CLOUDS ACTUALLY PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG AROUND 09Z...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR KEUG CIGS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT WEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 20Z...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 8Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO
SW WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE
WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW
W AND SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
N WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 161015 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING EAST AS A
CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS THAT
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW IS CENTERED
WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME
WEAK ENERGY MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE LOW THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW IS HEADING INLAND A
BIT TO OUR SOUTH...SO THAT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND QPF SOME. A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY BUT WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND
ITS AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE SO FAR NEAR CANNON BEACH.
THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF CELLS THAT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COWLITZ
AND SKAMANIA COUNTY BORDERS AS WELL. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...EXCEPT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH
OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS CIRCULATION HAS SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THAT
MIGHT PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP
TEMPS INLAND TODAY DOWN AROUND 80 OR SO.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL SPREAD NORTH BUT IS MOSTLY OFF THE COAST...AND IS LIKELY
REPRESENTED BY THE HIGHER CLOUD BAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LANE COUNTY
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
OFFSHORE...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF TODAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE LOW STARTS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OUR FORECAST RAMPS UP THE POPS MAINLY INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP
THE MARINE AIR ENDS UP BEING INLAND.

THE LOW SPLITS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPS BY THURSDAY MAY EASE DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
HOPEFULLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LOWER TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS HELP
FIRE FIGHTERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT S/SW ONSHORE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THE COASTAL
STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT...THAT SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
REFORM ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW
WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW W AND
SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TODAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF N
WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 161015 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING EAST AS A
CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS THAT
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW IS CENTERED
WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME
WEAK ENERGY MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE LOW THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW IS HEADING INLAND A
BIT TO OUR SOUTH...SO THAT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND QPF SOME. A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY BUT WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND
ITS AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE SO FAR NEAR CANNON BEACH.
THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF CELLS THAT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COWLITZ
AND SKAMANIA COUNTY BORDERS AS WELL. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...EXCEPT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH
OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS CIRCULATION HAS SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THAT
MIGHT PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP
TEMPS INLAND TODAY DOWN AROUND 80 OR SO.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL SPREAD NORTH BUT IS MOSTLY OFF THE COAST...AND IS LIKELY
REPRESENTED BY THE HIGHER CLOUD BAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LANE COUNTY
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
OFFSHORE...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF TODAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE LOW STARTS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OUR FORECAST RAMPS UP THE POPS MAINLY INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP
THE MARINE AIR ENDS UP BEING INLAND.

THE LOW SPLITS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPS BY THURSDAY MAY EASE DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
HOPEFULLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LOWER TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS HELP
FIRE FIGHTERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT S/SW ONSHORE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THE COASTAL
STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT...THAT SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
REFORM ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW
WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW W AND
SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TODAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF N
WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.





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