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000
FXUS66 KPQR 281819
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1018 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS PRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS COLD FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER CASCADE
PASSES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH...WITH PERHAPS A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN THE
HIGHER HILLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
GORGE AND ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR ON
MON...BUT FCST DETAILS DURING THIS TIME REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE...AS IT LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE DESPITE A FAIRLY COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE CLOUDS OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS
MORNING...AND INDEED THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
PRODUCED BY THESE CLOUDS. THIS DUE TO WEAK/MOIST INSTABILITY SEEING
ITS POTENTIAL DUE TO INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT.

MEANWHILE AN UNUSUALLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT BY WEST COAST
STANDARDS IS PRESSING SE THROUGH WASHINGTON. THE FRONT BROUGHT A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO HOQUIAM...WITH OVER ONE HALF INCH IN AN HOUR
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST REACHING A
PORTLAND-NEWPORT LINE BY AROUND 3-4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH
EUGENE AROUND 10-11 PM THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER VERY
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 4000-5000 FT DOWN TO 1500 FT OR LOWER
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE JUST BARELY TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO STICK BELOW 500-1000
FEET IN ELEVATION. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MORE
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND CASCADE/COAST
RANGE FOOTHILLS SURROUNDING THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COULD SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES
DUE TO OUR RECENT WARM SPELL. ABOVE 1000-1500 FT IS WHERE SNOW MAY
START TO STICK ON THE ROADS AND PRESENT TRAVEL ISSUES...THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME SUN BREAKS BETWEEN THE SHOWERS TO MITIGATE THIS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT ONWARD YET...THOUGH MODELS ARE
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD BRINGING MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE AN INTERESTING FORECAST
CHALLENGE MONDAY MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS COLD FROM OUR WEEKEND
COLD SNAP. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.  WEAGLE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON IS BEING REACTIVATED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE PAC. AS A RESULT...RAIN IS FILLING BACK
IN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MILD AND
WET DAY AHEAD...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE STEADY RAIN FALLING FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE 6000 FT.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE DRIVEN INTO WA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT BY A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE SHARP BY PAC NW STANDARDS...WITH THE FCST
MODELS SHOWING ABOUT AN 8 DEG CELSIUS DROP OVER A 6 HR PERIOD AT 850
MB WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL RAIN
BELOW 6000 FT...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT.X1AEXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATION SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER CASCADE PASSES WITH THE FRONT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES
TREACHEROUS FOR A TIME TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE -6C TO -8 RANGE...WHICH WILL OFTEN SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR. QPF AMOUNTS ON SAT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THERE
WILL BE ANY MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR...OR ALONG THE S WA OR N
OR COAST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANT SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WE WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
DRY...COLD...AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH
RESOLUTION FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE GORGE...AND 40-45
MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS
TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED LOW PRES
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR SW ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW WOULD PUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONSHORE BEGINNING MON MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN TENDING TO KEEP THE LOW FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER THE PAC
NW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
00Z NAM AS WELL NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MON. AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH THE GORGE...SO ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL COULD BRING FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE GORGE...AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
FCST MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER MON NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BRING THE
TRANSITION TO A MILDER AIR MASS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ARE VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ACROSS REGION
THIS AM. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TODAY AS COLD FRONT OVER W WASHINGTON
PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED IN
RAIN AND CLOUDS. ONCE FRONT PUSHES S...AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND LOW VFR THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIKELY TO SEE MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT.
BUT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO REGION...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
QUICKLY...AND WILL BE 500 TO 1000 FT BY 15Z SAT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TODAY...WITH RAIN AND
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THIS AM ALOFT WILL
EASE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND MVFR WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF LOW
VFR AND MVFR TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP HARD
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SNOW IN THE SHOWERS AFTER 12Z. BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS GROUND WILL BE TOO WARM.     ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY S WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT 8 AM
FRI...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS JUST N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN NW AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SAT AM.

SEAS RUNNING 11 TO 13 FT TODAY...AND WILL DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LIKELY TO HOLD CLOSE TO 10 FT ON THE WATERS THROUGH SAT.

WINDS EASE LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH GRADIENTS BECOMING
OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER PAC NW. LIKELY
SEE GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT IN THE COASTAL GAPS ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SAT AM.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS
  THROUGH SAT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
  UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281819
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1018 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS PRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS COLD FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER CASCADE
PASSES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH...WITH PERHAPS A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN THE
HIGHER HILLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
GORGE AND ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR ON
MON...BUT FCST DETAILS DURING THIS TIME REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE...AS IT LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE DESPITE A FAIRLY COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE CLOUDS OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS
MORNING...AND INDEED THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
PRODUCED BY THESE CLOUDS. THIS DUE TO WEAK/MOIST INSTABILITY SEEING
ITS POTENTIAL DUE TO INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT.

MEANWHILE AN UNUSUALLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT BY WEST COAST
STANDARDS IS PRESSING SE THROUGH WASHINGTON. THE FRONT BROUGHT A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO HOQUIAM...WITH OVER ONE HALF INCH IN AN HOUR
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST REACHING A
PORTLAND-NEWPORT LINE BY AROUND 3-4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH
EUGENE AROUND 10-11 PM THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER VERY
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 4000-5000 FT DOWN TO 1500 FT OR LOWER
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE JUST BARELY TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO STICK BELOW 500-1000
FEET IN ELEVATION. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MORE
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND CASCADE/COAST
RANGE FOOTHILLS SURROUNDING THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COULD SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES
DUE TO OUR RECENT WARM SPELL. ABOVE 1000-1500 FT IS WHERE SNOW MAY
START TO STICK ON THE ROADS AND PRESENT TRAVEL ISSUES...THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME SUN BREAKS BETWEEN THE SHOWERS TO MITIGATE THIS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT ONWARD YET...THOUGH MODELS ARE
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD BRINGING MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE AN INTERESTING FORECAST
CHALLENGE MONDAY MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS COLD FROM OUR WEEKEND
COLD SNAP. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.  WEAGLE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON IS BEING REACTIVATED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE PAC. AS A RESULT...RAIN IS FILLING BACK
IN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MILD AND
WET DAY AHEAD...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE STEADY RAIN FALLING FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE 6000 FT.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE DRIVEN INTO WA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT BY A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE SHARP BY PAC NW STANDARDS...WITH THE FCST
MODELS SHOWING ABOUT AN 8 DEG CELSIUS DROP OVER A 6 HR PERIOD AT 850
MB WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL RAIN
BELOW 6000 FT...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT.X1AEXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATION SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER CASCADE PASSES WITH THE FRONT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES
TREACHEROUS FOR A TIME TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE -6C TO -8 RANGE...WHICH WILL OFTEN SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR. QPF AMOUNTS ON SAT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THERE
WILL BE ANY MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR...OR ALONG THE S WA OR N
OR COAST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANT SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WE WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
DRY...COLD...AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH
RESOLUTION FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE GORGE...AND 40-45
MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS
TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED LOW PRES
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR SW ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW WOULD PUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONSHORE BEGINNING MON MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN TENDING TO KEEP THE LOW FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER THE PAC
NW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
00Z NAM AS WELL NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MON. AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH THE GORGE...SO ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL COULD BRING FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE GORGE...AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
FCST MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER MON NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BRING THE
TRANSITION TO A MILDER AIR MASS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ARE VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ACROSS REGION
THIS AM. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TODAY AS COLD FRONT OVER W WASHINGTON
PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED IN
RAIN AND CLOUDS. ONCE FRONT PUSHES S...AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND LOW VFR THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIKELY TO SEE MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT.
BUT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO REGION...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
QUICKLY...AND WILL BE 500 TO 1000 FT BY 15Z SAT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TODAY...WITH RAIN AND
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THIS AM ALOFT WILL
EASE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND MVFR WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF LOW
VFR AND MVFR TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP HARD
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SNOW IN THE SHOWERS AFTER 12Z. BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS GROUND WILL BE TOO WARM.     ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY S WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT 8 AM
FRI...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS JUST N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN NW AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SAT AM.

SEAS RUNNING 11 TO 13 FT TODAY...AND WILL DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LIKELY TO HOLD CLOSE TO 10 FT ON THE WATERS THROUGH SAT.

WINDS EASE LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH GRADIENTS BECOMING
OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER PAC NW. LIKELY
SEE GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT IN THE COASTAL GAPS ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SAT AM.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS
  THROUGH SAT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
  UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 281126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON
HAS BEEN REACTIVATED THIS MORNING BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CAUSING RAIN TO SLOWLY FILL BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGHER CASCADE PASSES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND
ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR ON MON...BUT FCST
DETAILS DURING THIS TIME REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON IS BEING REACTIVATED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE PAC. AS A RESULT...RAIN IS FILLING BACK
IN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MILD AND
WET DAY AHEAD...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE STEADY RAIN FALLING FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE 6000 FT.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE DRIVEN INTO WA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT BY A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE SHARP BY PAC NW STANDARDS...WITH THE FCST
MODELS SHOWING ABOUT AN 8 DEG CELSIUS DROP OVER A 6 HR PERIOD AT 850
MB WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL RAIN
BELOW 6000 FT...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT.X1AEXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATION SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER CASCADE PASSES WITH THE FRONT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES
TREACHEROUS FOR A TIME TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE -6C TO -8 RANGE...WHICH WILL OFTEN SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR. QPF AMOUNTS ON SAT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THERE
WILL BE ANY MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR...OR ALONG THE S WA OR N
OR COAST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANT SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WE WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
DRY...COLD...AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH
RESOLUTION FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE GORGE...AND 40-45
MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS
TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED LOW PRES
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR SW ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW WOULD PUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONSHORE BEGINNING MON MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN TENDING TO KEEP THE LOW FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER THE PAC
NW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
00Z NAM AS WELL NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MON. AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH THE GORGE...SO ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL COULD BRING FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE GORGE...AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
FCST MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER MON NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BRING THE
TRANSITION TO A MILDER AIR MASS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ARE VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER FROM THE SOUTH
OREGON COAST NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OREGON...IMPACTING THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NORTHWEST OREGON. TO THE NORTH OF A FRONT A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. ANOTHER MORE ROBUST COLD
FRONT WAS ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL STEADIER
RAIN...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NET RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED RATHER
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE COAST WILL SEE MOSTLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AS THE NORTHERN FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. INLAND WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND
LOW VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SHOWERY FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME VFR
CONDITIONS TRYING TO DEVELOP...AND DRAMATICALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW SOME MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH LOW
ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL AND APPROACHES WITH CIGS 2500 TO 3500 FT
RANGE. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MID DAY TODAY
CIGS MAY TREND MORE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MUCH OF TODAY...SHIFTING TO W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN
4 AND 7 PM THIS EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE SHORT PERIODS OF SUB ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE
RULE. ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS INLAND INTO NORTHEAST
OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST AND WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED
EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY
EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN.

SEAS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 12 FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING. SEAS FALL
BELOW 10 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WATERS TONIGHT...BUT NOT
IN THE NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING.
SEAS IN THE CENTRAL WATERS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 10 FT AGAIN FOR A
TIME ON SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 FT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL DECREASE WAVE HEIGHT...
BUT RESULT IN VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     4 AM PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 281126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON
HAS BEEN REACTIVATED THIS MORNING BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CAUSING RAIN TO SLOWLY FILL BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGHER CASCADE PASSES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND
ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR ON MON...BUT FCST
DETAILS DURING THIS TIME REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON IS BEING REACTIVATED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE PAC. AS A RESULT...RAIN IS FILLING BACK
IN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MILD AND
WET DAY AHEAD...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE STEADY RAIN FALLING FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE 6000 FT.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE DRIVEN INTO WA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT BY A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE SHARP BY PAC NW STANDARDS...WITH THE FCST
MODELS SHOWING ABOUT AN 8 DEG CELSIUS DROP OVER A 6 HR PERIOD AT 850
MB WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL RAIN
BELOW 6000 FT...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT.X1AEXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATION SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER CASCADE PASSES WITH THE FRONT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES
TREACHEROUS FOR A TIME TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE -6C TO -8 RANGE...WHICH WILL OFTEN SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR. QPF AMOUNTS ON SAT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THERE
WILL BE ANY MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR...OR ALONG THE S WA OR N
OR COAST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANT SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WE WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
DRY...COLD...AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH
RESOLUTION FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE GORGE...AND 40-45
MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS
TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED LOW PRES
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR SW ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW WOULD PUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONSHORE BEGINNING MON MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN TENDING TO KEEP THE LOW FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER THE PAC
NW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
00Z NAM AS WELL NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MON. AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH THE GORGE...SO ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL COULD BRING FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE GORGE...AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
FCST MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER MON NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BRING THE
TRANSITION TO A MILDER AIR MASS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ARE VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER FROM THE SOUTH
OREGON COAST NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OREGON...IMPACTING THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NORTHWEST OREGON. TO THE NORTH OF A FRONT A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. ANOTHER MORE ROBUST COLD
FRONT WAS ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL STEADIER
RAIN...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NET RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED RATHER
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE COAST WILL SEE MOSTLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AS THE NORTHERN FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. INLAND WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND
LOW VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SHOWERY FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME VFR
CONDITIONS TRYING TO DEVELOP...AND DRAMATICALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW SOME MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH LOW
ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL AND APPROACHES WITH CIGS 2500 TO 3500 FT
RANGE. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MID DAY TODAY
CIGS MAY TREND MORE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MUCH OF TODAY...SHIFTING TO W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN
4 AND 7 PM THIS EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE SHORT PERIODS OF SUB ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE
RULE. ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS INLAND INTO NORTHEAST
OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST AND WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED
EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY
EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN.

SEAS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 12 FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING. SEAS FALL
BELOW 10 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WATERS TONIGHT...BUT NOT
IN THE NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING.
SEAS IN THE CENTRAL WATERS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 10 FT AGAIN FOR A
TIME ON SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 FT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL DECREASE WAVE HEIGHT...
BUT RESULT IN VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     4 AM PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...LIKELY CAUSING
RAIN TO FILL IN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HILLS AND ABOVE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IT IS A MILD AND RAINY NIGHT.
THIS KIND OF WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY THEN MORE WINTER LIKE
WEATHER.

PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY WITH ONE STALLED FRONT OVER SW
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING STEADY RAIN ACROSS LANE AND
LINN COUNTIES.NORTH OF THAT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE BUT
WITH DECENT SW FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS THE OREGON CASCADE ZONES
ACCUMULATED AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE COAST
RANGE HAD ABOUT HALF THAT. FURTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN WA ANOTHER
FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH.  THIS FRONT BECOMES DOMINANT
OVERNIGHT AND FRI THEN SLIDES INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRI
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL USHER IN THE COLDER WEATHER.  MODELS
INDICATE THIS WILL BE A SHARP FRONT. 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWS TIGHT
THICKNESS/TEMPERATURE PACKING UP TO 700 MB. NAM FRONTOGENSIS IS
STRONG UP THROUGH 850 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE DECENT LIFT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS LOOKED TOO HIGH PREVIOUSLY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOOK MORE REASONABLE NOW.  SO HAVE UPDATED QPF
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND FRI.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
12Z/18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAK MOIST/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A COUPLE STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY MARGINAL SO WE
DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY AROUND 5-10 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SNOW LEVELS ARE PRESENTLY VERY HIGH...WITH TIMBERLINE WEBCAMS SHOWING
RAIN AS HIGH AS 6000-7000 FT ELEVATION. IT WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY FRI NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS 925 MB TEMPS CRASHING FROM +9 DEG C LATE FRI AFTERNOON TO
-1 DEG C SIX HOURS LATER. BY OUR STANDARDS...THAT IS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE DROP. AT THIS POINT...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUPPORT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES REACHING THE NORTH COAST AND VALLEY FLOOR BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW.
GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO -8 DEG C RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
STILL PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL DOWN TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING WITH
ELEVATION ABOVE THAT. THE HIGHER WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SUBURBS MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
CENTERED EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE
GORGE...AND 40-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG EAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT...THOUGH
SOME SORT OF EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LINGER INSIDE THE GORGE. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF SOMEWHERE WEST OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. THE 12Z/18Z GFS HAVE
BEEN OUTLIERS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL...IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OREGON SUN NIGHT/MONDAY THEN
HAVING IT LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP US GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER MODERATE SURGE OF EAST WIND TUE/WED. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THERE WAS A LARGE CONSENSUS THAT THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...WITH OUR FORECAST FOLLOWING
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS START
TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION...WE MAY NEED TO
CONTEND WITH SNOW OR ICE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE INTERIOR HAS REMAINED LARGELY
STATIONARY WITH MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING AS LOWER CLOUD DECKS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. MEANWHILE...MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT BOUNDARY WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...SO
EXPECT TRENDING TOWARD INCREASINGLY MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIP
INTENSITY THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND HEAVIER RAIN MAY BRING VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO THE 3-5 SM RANGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRI...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW WINDS TO NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 18Z FRI...REACHING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS BY 06Z SAT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE OREGON COAST
RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONTINUES AT THE TERMINAL
AND APPROACHES WITH CIGS 2500-3500 FT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. S WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO
W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z SAT. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH FRI MORNING. THERE MAY BE
SHORT PERIODS OF SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE RULE. FAVOR THE
NAM/GFS WIND FIELD THROUGH SAT. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING
FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL DECREASE WAVE HEIGHT...BUT RESULT IN
VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS. CULLEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 280505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...LIKELY CAUSING
RAIN TO FILL IN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HILLS AND ABOVE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IT IS A MILD AND RAINY NIGHT.
THIS KIND OF WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY THEN MORE WINTER LIKE
WEATHER.

PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY WITH ONE STALLED FRONT OVER SW
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING STEADY RAIN ACROSS LANE AND
LINN COUNTIES.NORTH OF THAT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE BUT
WITH DECENT SW FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS THE OREGON CASCADE ZONES
ACCUMULATED AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE COAST
RANGE HAD ABOUT HALF THAT. FURTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN WA ANOTHER
FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH.  THIS FRONT BECOMES DOMINANT
OVERNIGHT AND FRI THEN SLIDES INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRI
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL USHER IN THE COLDER WEATHER.  MODELS
INDICATE THIS WILL BE A SHARP FRONT. 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWS TIGHT
THICKNESS/TEMPERATURE PACKING UP TO 700 MB. NAM FRONTOGENSIS IS
STRONG UP THROUGH 850 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE DECENT LIFT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS LOOKED TOO HIGH PREVIOUSLY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOOK MORE REASONABLE NOW.  SO HAVE UPDATED QPF
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND FRI.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
12Z/18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAK MOIST/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A COUPLE STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY MARGINAL SO WE
DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY AROUND 5-10 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SNOW LEVELS ARE PRESENTLY VERY HIGH...WITH TIMBERLINE WEBCAMS SHOWING
RAIN AS HIGH AS 6000-7000 FT ELEVATION. IT WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY FRI NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS 925 MB TEMPS CRASHING FROM +9 DEG C LATE FRI AFTERNOON TO
-1 DEG C SIX HOURS LATER. BY OUR STANDARDS...THAT IS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE DROP. AT THIS POINT...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUPPORT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES REACHING THE NORTH COAST AND VALLEY FLOOR BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW.
GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO -8 DEG C RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
STILL PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL DOWN TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING WITH
ELEVATION ABOVE THAT. THE HIGHER WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SUBURBS MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
CENTERED EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE
GORGE...AND 40-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG EAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT...THOUGH
SOME SORT OF EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LINGER INSIDE THE GORGE. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF SOMEWHERE WEST OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. THE 12Z/18Z GFS HAVE
BEEN OUTLIERS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL...IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OREGON SUN NIGHT/MONDAY THEN
HAVING IT LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP US GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER MODERATE SURGE OF EAST WIND TUE/WED. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THERE WAS A LARGE CONSENSUS THAT THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...WITH OUR FORECAST FOLLOWING
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS START
TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION...WE MAY NEED TO
CONTEND WITH SNOW OR ICE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE INTERIOR HAS REMAINED LARGELY
STATIONARY WITH MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING AS LOWER CLOUD DECKS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. MEANWHILE...MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT BOUNDARY WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...SO
EXPECT TRENDING TOWARD INCREASINGLY MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIP
INTENSITY THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND HEAVIER RAIN MAY BRING VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO THE 3-5 SM RANGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRI...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW WINDS TO NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 18Z FRI...REACHING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS BY 06Z SAT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE OREGON COAST
RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONTINUES AT THE TERMINAL
AND APPROACHES WITH CIGS 2500-3500 FT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. S WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO
W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z SAT. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH FRI MORNING. THERE MAY BE
SHORT PERIODS OF SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE RULE. FAVOR THE
NAM/GFS WIND FIELD THROUGH SAT. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING
FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL DECREASE WAVE HEIGHT...BUT RESULT IN
VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS. CULLEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...LIKELY CAUSING
RAIN TO FILL IN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HILLS AND ABOVE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IT IS A MILD AND RAINY NIGHT.
THIS KIND OF WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY THEN MORE WINTER LIKE
WEATHER.

PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY WITH ONE STALLED FRONT OVER SW
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING STEADY RAIN ACROSS LANE AND
LINN COUNTIES.NORTH OF THAT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE BUT
WITH DECENT SW FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS THE OREGON CASCADE ZONES
ACCUMULATED AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE COAST
RANGE HAD ABOUT HALF THAT. FURTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN WA ANOTHER
FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH.  THIS FRONT BECOMES DOMINANT
OVERNIGHT AND FRI THEN SLIDES INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRI
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL USHER IN THE COLDER WEATHER.  MODELS
INDICATE THIS WILL BE A SHARP FRONT. 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWS TIGHT
THICKNESS/TEMPERATURE PACKING UP TO 700 MB. NAM FRONTOGENSIS IS
STRONG UP THROUGH 850 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE DECENT LIFT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS LOOKED TOO HIGH PREVIOUSLY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOOK MORE REASONABLE NOW.  SO HAVE UPDATED QPF
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND FRI.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
12Z/18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAK MOIST/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A COUPLE STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY MARGINAL SO WE
DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY AROUND 5-10 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SNOW LEVELS ARE PRESENTLY VERY HIGH...WITH TIMBERLINE WEBCAMS SHOWING
RAIN AS HIGH AS 6000-7000 FT ELEVATION. IT WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY FRI NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS 925 MB TEMPS CRASHING FROM +9 DEG C LATE FRI AFTERNOON TO
-1 DEG C SIX HOURS LATER. BY OUR STANDARDS...THAT IS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE DROP. AT THIS POINT...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUPPORT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES REACHING THE NORTH COAST AND VALLEY FLOOR BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW.
GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO -8 DEG C RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
STILL PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL DOWN TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING WITH
ELEVATION ABOVE THAT. THE HIGHER WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SUBURBS MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
CENTERED EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE
GORGE...AND 40-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG EAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT...THOUGH
SOME SORT OF EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LINGER INSIDE THE GORGE. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF SOMEWHERE WEST OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. THE 12Z/18Z GFS HAVE
BEEN OUTLIERS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL...IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OREGON SUN NIGHT/MONDAY THEN
HAVING IT LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP US GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER MODERATE SURGE OF EAST WIND TUE/WED. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THERE WAS A LARGE CONSENSUS THAT THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...WITH OUR FORECAST FOLLOWING
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS START
TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION...WE MAY NEED TO
CONTEND WITH SNOW OR ICE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE INTERIOR HAS REMAINED LARGELY
STATIONARY WITH MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING AS LOWER CLOUD DECKS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. MEANWHILE...MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT BOUNDARY WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...SO
EXPECT TRENDING TOWARD INCREASINGLY MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIP
INTENSITY THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND HEAVIER RAIN MAY BRING VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO THE 3-5 SM RANGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRI...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW WINDS TO NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 18Z FRI...REACHING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS BY 06Z SAT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE OREGON COAST
RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONTINUES AT THE TERMINAL
AND APPROACHES WITH CIGS 2500-3500 FT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. S WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO
W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z SAT. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH FRI MORNING. THERE MAY BE
SHORT PERIODS OF SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE RULE. FAVOR THE
NAM/GFS WIND FIELD THROUGH SAT. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING
FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL DECREASE WAVE HEIGHT...BUT RESULT IN
VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS. CULLEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 272322
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
321 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...LIKELY CAUSING
RAIN TO FILL IN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HILLS AND ABOVE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PLENTY OF WEATHER TO TALK
ABOUT...BUT BEFORE TALKING TURKEY WE WOULD LIKE TO SEND OUR BEST
WISHES TO EVERYONE ON THIS THANKSGIVING DAY.

A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS DRAPED OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FAIRLY STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES BUT MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TO AREAS NORTH AND
WEST. THIS FRONT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...
AS MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OUTRAN THE FRONT EARLIER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRI...LIKELY CAUSING RAIN TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN. DESPITE THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...SOUTH-NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS REPORTING GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...AS SOME LOCATIONS IN
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA HAVE SEEN THEIR TEMPS FALL FROM THE LOWER
30S THROUGH 20S AND INTO THE TEENS AS TODAY HAS PROGRESSED. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...MOVING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

12Z/18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAK MOIST/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A COUPLE STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY MARGINAL SO WE
DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY AROUND 5-10 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SNOW LEVELS ARE PRESENTLY VERY HIGH...WITH TIMBERLINE WEBCAMS SHOWING
RAIN AS HIGH AS 6000-7000 FT ELEVATION. IT WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY FRI NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS 925 MB TEMPS CRASHING FROM +9 DEG C LATE FRI AFTERNOON TO
-1 DEG C SIX HOURS LATER. BY OUR STANDARDS...THAT IS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE DROP. AT THIS POINT...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUPPORT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES REACHING THE NORTH COAST AND VALLEY FLOOR BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW.
GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO -8 DEG C RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
STILL PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL DOWN TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING WITH
ELEVATION ABOVE THAT. THE HIGHER WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SUBURBS MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
CENTERED EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE
GORGE...AND 40-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG EAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT...THOUGH
SOME SORT OF EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LINGER INSIDE THE GORGE. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF SOMEWHERE WEST OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. THE 12Z/18Z GFS HAVE
BEEN OUTLIERS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL...IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OREGON SUN NIGHT/MONDAY THEN
HAVING IT LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP US GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER MODERATE SURGE OF EAST WIND TUE/WED. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THERE WAS A LARGE CONSENSUS THAT THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...WITH OUR FORECAST FOLLOWING
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS START
TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION...WE MAY NEED TO
CONTEND WITH SNOW OR ICE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR IN THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE INTERIOR TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THUS...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE OREGON COAST
RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP INTENSITY TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR HAS SPREAD OVER THE TERMINAL AND
APPROACHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI MORNING. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS TO 25
KT AT TIMES THROUGH FRI MORNING. THERE MAY BE SHORT PERIODS OF
SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL
BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE RULE. FAVOR THE NAM AND GFS WIND
FIELD THROUGH SAT. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING FOR
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN. GFS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY MAJOR MODEL
THAT MOVES A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP IT NEARLY
STATIONARY.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS THEN CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO SATURDAY...
THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL KNOCK DOWN THE SEAS...BUT RESULT IN VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 272322
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
321 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...LIKELY CAUSING
RAIN TO FILL IN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HILLS AND ABOVE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PLENTY OF WEATHER TO TALK
ABOUT...BUT BEFORE TALKING TURKEY WE WOULD LIKE TO SEND OUR BEST
WISHES TO EVERYONE ON THIS THANKSGIVING DAY.

A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS DRAPED OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FAIRLY STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES BUT MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TO AREAS NORTH AND
WEST. THIS FRONT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...
AS MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OUTRAN THE FRONT EARLIER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRI...LIKELY CAUSING RAIN TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN. DESPITE THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...SOUTH-NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS REPORTING GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...AS SOME LOCATIONS IN
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA HAVE SEEN THEIR TEMPS FALL FROM THE LOWER
30S THROUGH 20S AND INTO THE TEENS AS TODAY HAS PROGRESSED. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...MOVING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

12Z/18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAK MOIST/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A COUPLE STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY MARGINAL SO WE
DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY AROUND 5-10 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SNOW LEVELS ARE PRESENTLY VERY HIGH...WITH TIMBERLINE WEBCAMS SHOWING
RAIN AS HIGH AS 6000-7000 FT ELEVATION. IT WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY FRI NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS 925 MB TEMPS CRASHING FROM +9 DEG C LATE FRI AFTERNOON TO
-1 DEG C SIX HOURS LATER. BY OUR STANDARDS...THAT IS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE DROP. AT THIS POINT...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUPPORT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES REACHING THE NORTH COAST AND VALLEY FLOOR BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW.
GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO -8 DEG C RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
STILL PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL DOWN TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING WITH
ELEVATION ABOVE THAT. THE HIGHER WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SUBURBS MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
CENTERED EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE
GORGE...AND 40-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG EAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT...THOUGH
SOME SORT OF EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LINGER INSIDE THE GORGE. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF SOMEWHERE WEST OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. THE 12Z/18Z GFS HAVE
BEEN OUTLIERS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL...IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OREGON SUN NIGHT/MONDAY THEN
HAVING IT LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP US GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER MODERATE SURGE OF EAST WIND TUE/WED. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THERE WAS A LARGE CONSENSUS THAT THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...WITH OUR FORECAST FOLLOWING
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS START
TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION...WE MAY NEED TO
CONTEND WITH SNOW OR ICE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR IN THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE INTERIOR TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THUS...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE OREGON COAST
RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP INTENSITY TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR HAS SPREAD OVER THE TERMINAL AND
APPROACHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI MORNING. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS TO 25
KT AT TIMES THROUGH FRI MORNING. THERE MAY BE SHORT PERIODS OF
SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL
BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE RULE. FAVOR THE NAM AND GFS WIND
FIELD THROUGH SAT. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING FOR
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN. GFS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY MAJOR MODEL
THAT MOVES A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP IT NEARLY
STATIONARY.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS THEN CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO SATURDAY...
THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL KNOCK DOWN THE SEAS...BUT RESULT IN VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 271752
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
950 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT AND FRI. THIS
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN EARLY FRI. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE
FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY AND COLD WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE S SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE TRACKING WELL.

THE 12Z SALEM SOUNDING WAS NOTABLE IN SHOWING A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...WITH ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE DUE THE MILD AND
MOIST AIR MASS BETWEEN 850-700 MB. SURE ENOUGH...THERE ARE SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING DETECTED NEAR THE SOUTH OREGON COAST. IT
APPEARS THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN THERE...THOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE A COMPLETE SURPRISE TO SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
SOUTH OF SALEM TODAY. 12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SKINNY
CAPE INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG/AHEAD AS THE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PROVIDES A BIT OF
EXTRA LIFT. THERE IS ALSO SOME FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR WITHIN THIS AREA
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST
YET...BUT WE MAY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FRIDAY WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS.

AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOW LATER FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT EVENING...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW CONTINUES TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 327 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE KEEPING EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT CURRENT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE
RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. HOWEVER...THE
PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE COMING TO AN END VERY SHORTLY.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS
APPARENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE FRONT CAN BE
MADE OUT ON SATELLITE JUST OFFSHORE AROUND BUOY 29. WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE REMAINING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE IS DEFINITELY ON THE
PATCHIER SIDE. THE RAIN HAS BECOME A BIT STEADIER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG THE N COAST AND COAST RANGE...BUT MOST SITES ARE ONLY
PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR. STILL...
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT STEADY RAIN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT WE ARE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS A
PERSISTENT STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A SHARP COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL OREGON IS
FCST TO PUSH NORTHWARD AGAIN FRI MORNING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...EXPECT RAINFALL TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FRI. AS THE SHARP COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH DIVES
THROUGH THE REGION LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SAT TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR POST FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BASED ON MODEL 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AT TIMES ON SAT. THE TEMP AND THICKNESS INDICATORS
ARE ONLY MARGINAL AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS
JUST HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLAKES. AT
ANY RATE...WITH THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ROAD SURFACES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL FAST ENOUGH FOR
THERE TO BE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. PYLE


LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...  WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY
GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS
AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST...AND VFR OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY...WITH PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH
AS THE OREGON COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES
WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP
INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 16Z...BUT STILL EXPECT
MVFR TO BE THE PREDOMINANT CATEGORY AFTER 18Z. LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. 12Z SALEM
UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KPDX INDICATED SE-S
WIND OF AROUND 10 KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT SW WIND 35-40 KT AT
FL020. THIS HAS PRODUCED LLWS NEAR THE AIR FIELD SO HAVE INCLUDED
IT IN THE TAF FOR THIS MORNING. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE WIND HAS DIMINISHED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SPEEDS. MODELS SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES MOST OF THE DAY.
THERE MAY BE SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. A
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT...WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING
FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
VARIETY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

SEAS ARE UP TO 10 TO 13 FT THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO
SATURDAY...THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. SEAS TODAY WILL BE
CHOPPY WITH AROUND 8 SECOND PERIODS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERIODS
WILL LENGTHEN TO AROUND 14 SECONDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
SHIFT AND BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH PERIODS AND 10 OR 11 SECONDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271752
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
950 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT AND FRI. THIS
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN EARLY FRI. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE
FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY AND COLD WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE S SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE TRACKING WELL.

THE 12Z SALEM SOUNDING WAS NOTABLE IN SHOWING A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...WITH ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE DUE THE MILD AND
MOIST AIR MASS BETWEEN 850-700 MB. SURE ENOUGH...THERE ARE SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING DETECTED NEAR THE SOUTH OREGON COAST. IT
APPEARS THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN THERE...THOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE A COMPLETE SURPRISE TO SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
SOUTH OF SALEM TODAY. 12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SKINNY
CAPE INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG/AHEAD AS THE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PROVIDES A BIT OF
EXTRA LIFT. THERE IS ALSO SOME FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR WITHIN THIS AREA
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST
YET...BUT WE MAY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FRIDAY WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS.

AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOW LATER FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT EVENING...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW CONTINUES TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 327 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE KEEPING EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT CURRENT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE
RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. HOWEVER...THE
PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE COMING TO AN END VERY SHORTLY.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS
APPARENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE FRONT CAN BE
MADE OUT ON SATELLITE JUST OFFSHORE AROUND BUOY 29. WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE REMAINING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE IS DEFINITELY ON THE
PATCHIER SIDE. THE RAIN HAS BECOME A BIT STEADIER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG THE N COAST AND COAST RANGE...BUT MOST SITES ARE ONLY
PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR. STILL...
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT STEADY RAIN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT WE ARE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS A
PERSISTENT STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A SHARP COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL OREGON IS
FCST TO PUSH NORTHWARD AGAIN FRI MORNING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...EXPECT RAINFALL TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FRI. AS THE SHARP COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH DIVES
THROUGH THE REGION LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SAT TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR POST FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BASED ON MODEL 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AT TIMES ON SAT. THE TEMP AND THICKNESS INDICATORS
ARE ONLY MARGINAL AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS
JUST HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLAKES. AT
ANY RATE...WITH THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ROAD SURFACES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL FAST ENOUGH FOR
THERE TO BE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. PYLE


LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...  WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY
GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS
AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST...AND VFR OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY...WITH PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH
AS THE OREGON COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES
WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP
INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 16Z...BUT STILL EXPECT
MVFR TO BE THE PREDOMINANT CATEGORY AFTER 18Z. LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. 12Z SALEM
UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KPDX INDICATED SE-S
WIND OF AROUND 10 KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT SW WIND 35-40 KT AT
FL020. THIS HAS PRODUCED LLWS NEAR THE AIR FIELD SO HAVE INCLUDED
IT IN THE TAF FOR THIS MORNING. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE WIND HAS DIMINISHED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SPEEDS. MODELS SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES MOST OF THE DAY.
THERE MAY BE SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. A
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT...WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING
FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
VARIETY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

SEAS ARE UP TO 10 TO 13 FT THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO
SATURDAY...THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. SEAS TODAY WILL BE
CHOPPY WITH AROUND 8 SECOND PERIODS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERIODS
WILL LENGTHEN TO AROUND 14 SECONDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
SHIFT AND BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH PERIODS AND 10 OR 11 SECONDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 271128
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT AND FRI. THIS
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN EARLY FRI. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY SAT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX A POSSIBILITY FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY AND COLD WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP
OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE KEEPING
EXCEPTIONALLY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT CURRENT ARE VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
HOWEVER...THE PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE COMING TO AN END VERY SHORTLY.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS
APPARENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE FRONT CAN BE
MADE OUT ON SATELLITE JUST OFFSHORE AROUND BUOY 29. WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE REMAINING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE IS DEFINITELY ON THE
PATCHIER SIDE. THE RAIN HAS BECOME A BIT STEADIER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG THE N COAST AND COAST RANGE...BUT MOST SITES ARE ONLY
PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR.
STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT STEADY RAIN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT WE ARE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS A
PERSISTENT STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A SHARP COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL OREGON IS
FCST TO PUSH NORTHWARD AGAIN FRI MORNING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...EXPECT RAINFALL TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FRI. AS THE SHARP COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH DIVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SAT TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR POST FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BASED ON MODEL 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AT TIMES ON SAT. THE TEMP AND THICKNESS INDICATORS
ARE ONLY MARGINAL AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS
JUST HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLAKES. AT
ANY RATE...WITH THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ROAD SURFACES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL FAST ENOUGH FOR
THERE TO BE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. PYLE


LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...  ITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY
GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS
AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF IFR AND LOW MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD
ONTO THE COAST WITH THE FIRST INCOMING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS AT THE COAST WILL THEN CONTINUE IN THAT RANGE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BUT STALLS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES AT TIMES. INLAND CONDITIONS ARE STILL VFR
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS OR LOW END VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CHANGE THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CIGS
HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW END VFR WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AT TIMES. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AS THE FRONT MOVED FARTHER INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND GALE WARNING LOOKS GOOD. BELIEVE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS WILL EXTEND AN HOUR OR TWO
PAST 4 AM SO HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE THERE. THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO EAST A
BIT...BUT THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THEN IT LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL EASE ON SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY VARIETY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 FEET RIGHT NOW BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO SATURDAY...THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY
SUNDAY. SEAS TODAY WILL BE CHOPPY WITH AROUND 8 SECOND PERIODS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERIODS WILL LENGTHEN TO AROUND 14 SECONDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT AND BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH PERIODS AND 10 OR 11 SECONDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 AM PST FRIDAY.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 271128
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT AND FRI. THIS
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN EARLY FRI. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY SAT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX A POSSIBILITY FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY AND COLD WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP
OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE KEEPING
EXCEPTIONALLY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT CURRENT ARE VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
HOWEVER...THE PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE COMING TO AN END VERY SHORTLY.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS
APPARENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE FRONT CAN BE
MADE OUT ON SATELLITE JUST OFFSHORE AROUND BUOY 29. WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE REMAINING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE IS DEFINITELY ON THE
PATCHIER SIDE. THE RAIN HAS BECOME A BIT STEADIER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG THE N COAST AND COAST RANGE...BUT MOST SITES ARE ONLY
PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR.
STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT STEADY RAIN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT WE ARE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS A
PERSISTENT STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A SHARP COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL OREGON IS
FCST TO PUSH NORTHWARD AGAIN FRI MORNING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...EXPECT RAINFALL TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FRI. AS THE SHARP COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH DIVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SAT TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR POST FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BASED ON MODEL 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AT TIMES ON SAT. THE TEMP AND THICKNESS INDICATORS
ARE ONLY MARGINAL AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS
JUST HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLAKES. AT
ANY RATE...WITH THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ROAD SURFACES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL FAST ENOUGH FOR
THERE TO BE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. PYLE


LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...  ITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY
GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS
AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF IFR AND LOW MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD
ONTO THE COAST WITH THE FIRST INCOMING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS AT THE COAST WILL THEN CONTINUE IN THAT RANGE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BUT STALLS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES AT TIMES. INLAND CONDITIONS ARE STILL VFR
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS OR LOW END VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CHANGE THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CIGS
HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW END VFR WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AT TIMES. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AS THE FRONT MOVED FARTHER INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND GALE WARNING LOOKS GOOD. BELIEVE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS WILL EXTEND AN HOUR OR TWO
PAST 4 AM SO HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE THERE. THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO EAST A
BIT...BUT THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THEN IT LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL EASE ON SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY VARIETY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 FEET RIGHT NOW BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO SATURDAY...THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY
SUNDAY. SEAS TODAY WILL BE CHOPPY WITH AROUND 8 SECOND PERIODS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERIODS WILL LENGTHEN TO AROUND 14 SECONDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT AND BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH PERIODS AND 10 OR 11 SECONDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 AM PST FRIDAY.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270512
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER WESTERN OREGON THU NIGHT
AND FRI...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES
OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...NWS DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION...THROUGH OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR...GENERALLY
ONLY A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. FORECAST REMAINS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED IN
APPEARANCE AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE INITIALLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY SPLIT N AND S...LEAVING
MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FROM MIDDAY
THU THROUGH THU EVENING. ALSO NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.
CULLEN
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR KAST WHERE PASSING
RAIN BANDS HAVE BRIEFLY LOWERED THE CIGS TO AROUND 029. EXPECT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. EVEN THEN
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR BACKS THIS
UP AS RETURNS ARE FAIRLY DISJOINTED IMPLYING A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES INTENT
OF SHOWING A LOWER AND WEAKLY CONVECTIVE DECK AFTER THE FRONT AND
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN IFR
CIGS AT THE COAST AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU WITH VISUAL APPROACHED BECOMING IMPACTED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS THE DECK LOWERS BEYOND 040. WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 020 CLOSER TO 18Z WITH LITTLE LIFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL CALENDAR DAY. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THUS FAR TONIGHT WITH
THE HRRR MODEL HAVING AS GOOD OF A HANDLE AS ANYTHING. DO EXPECT
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS TONIGHT BUT LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR ONLY INDICATE A VERY MARGINAL GALE GUST SCENARIO
FROM ABOUT 15 NM OUT TOWARDS SHORE. BEST WINDS WILL STAY WELL
ELEVATED OFF THE WATER SURFACE AS BROAD ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS NOT
SUPPORTING THE HIGHER SPEEDS GETTING MIXED TO THE SURFACE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING SINCE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. JBONK/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 270512
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER WESTERN OREGON THU NIGHT
AND FRI...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES
OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...NWS DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION...THROUGH OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR...GENERALLY
ONLY A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. FORECAST REMAINS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED IN
APPEARANCE AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE INITIALLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY SPLIT N AND S...LEAVING
MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FROM MIDDAY
THU THROUGH THU EVENING. ALSO NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.
CULLEN
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR KAST WHERE PASSING
RAIN BANDS HAVE BRIEFLY LOWERED THE CIGS TO AROUND 029. EXPECT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. EVEN THEN
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR BACKS THIS
UP AS RETURNS ARE FAIRLY DISJOINTED IMPLYING A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES INTENT
OF SHOWING A LOWER AND WEAKLY CONVECTIVE DECK AFTER THE FRONT AND
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN IFR
CIGS AT THE COAST AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU WITH VISUAL APPROACHED BECOMING IMPACTED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS THE DECK LOWERS BEYOND 040. WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 020 CLOSER TO 18Z WITH LITTLE LIFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL CALENDAR DAY. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THUS FAR TONIGHT WITH
THE HRRR MODEL HAVING AS GOOD OF A HANDLE AS ANYTHING. DO EXPECT
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS TONIGHT BUT LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR ONLY INDICATE A VERY MARGINAL GALE GUST SCENARIO
FROM ABOUT 15 NM OUT TOWARDS SHORE. BEST WINDS WILL STAY WELL
ELEVATED OFF THE WATER SURFACE AS BROAD ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS NOT
SUPPORTING THE HIGHER SPEEDS GETTING MIXED TO THE SURFACE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING SINCE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. JBONK/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 262159
AFDPQR

FXUS66 KPQR DDHHMM
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND THU. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN
OREGON THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE
COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE COAST FROM KAST TO KHQM. EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA THU WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.
INCREASING MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS THU MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STILL AT 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. EXPECT SPEEDS TO RAMP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC
CASE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40 KT IF THIS OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHOR FLOW DEVELOPS. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 262159
AFDPQR

FXUS66 KPQR DDHHMM
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND THU. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN
OREGON THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE
COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE COAST FROM KAST TO KHQM. EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA THU WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.
INCREASING MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS THU MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STILL AT 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. EXPECT SPEEDS TO RAMP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC
CASE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40 KT IF THIS OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHOR FLOW DEVELOPS. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 262159
AFDPQR

FXUS66 KPQR DDHHMM
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND THU. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN
OREGON THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE
COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE COAST FROM KAST TO KHQM. EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA THU WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.
INCREASING MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS THU MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STILL AT 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. EXPECT SPEEDS TO RAMP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC
CASE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40 KT IF THIS OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHOR FLOW DEVELOPS. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261758
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT
FURTHER N THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A MILD AIR
MASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
N WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT BRINGING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE SUN. SUN NIGHT AND MON A
SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WAS N OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL LEAVE JUST A LOW POP IN FOR TODAY N OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY
AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...EXPECT PERSISTENCE TYPE TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE BEST
BET...MEANING SOME MORE TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE COAST AND
BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND SOME BRISK COASTAL
WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING FOR MORE
RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 17Z...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HOLDING AT 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SPEEDS RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO IN THE 02Z
TO 08Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC CASE...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 KT IF THIS
OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST THU MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE N
WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT. WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR
GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT LATER TODAY THEN STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 261758
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT
FURTHER N THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A MILD AIR
MASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
N WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT BRINGING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE SUN. SUN NIGHT AND MON A
SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WAS N OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL LEAVE JUST A LOW POP IN FOR TODAY N OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY
AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...EXPECT PERSISTENCE TYPE TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE BEST
BET...MEANING SOME MORE TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE COAST AND
BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND SOME BRISK COASTAL
WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING FOR MORE
RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 17Z...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HOLDING AT 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SPEEDS RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO IN THE 02Z
TO 08Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC CASE...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 KT IF THIS
OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST THU MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE N
WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT. WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR
GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT LATER TODAY THEN STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOSTLY LIFTED NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BRUSHING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND MILD AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AND START TO MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. LOOK FOR
RAIN AND COASTAL WIND. A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR MORE RAIN ON
FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR IS RATHER QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THE
MAIN WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...LEAVING SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON IN THE VERY MILD WARM SECTOR. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY AND AGAIN QUITE MILD... AND A FEW RECORDS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN REACH AGAIN TODAY. WE MAY ALSO SEE
LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
REACH THE COAST AND BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND
SOME BRISK COASTAL WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
THANKSGIVING FOR MORE RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ON THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE LATER
THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE.
INCREASING WINDS AND A NOSE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW CONDITIONS
TO EVEN TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT...LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN
IMPACT THE COAST TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY. FURTHER INLAND...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRATUS DECK NEAR 5KFT IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LITTLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...ANY LOCATIONS THAT
CLEAR WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
KEUG AND KSLE...BUT THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD SNEAK INTO
THE PORTLAND METRO TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY GIVE WAY
TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DETERIORATING THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE.
REGARDLESS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY. EXPECT PRIMARILY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK COASTAL JET WILL LIKELY ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT TO SURFACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR THE 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SITUATIONS WILL KEEP THE TIMING OF THE
GALE WARNING AS IS.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL STORM
SYSTEM SO EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE WEAK LOW PRESSURES
TO OUR WEST MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT SEAS IN
THE LOWER TEENS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A FRONT
SLIDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO RELAX FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. NONETHELESS... WINDS
SHOULD TURN MORE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AND NEAR TILLAMOOK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING
     TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOSTLY LIFTED NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BRUSHING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND MILD AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AND START TO MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. LOOK FOR
RAIN AND COASTAL WIND. A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR MORE RAIN ON
FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR IS RATHER QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THE
MAIN WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...LEAVING SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON IN THE VERY MILD WARM SECTOR. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY AND AGAIN QUITE MILD... AND A FEW RECORDS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN REACH AGAIN TODAY. WE MAY ALSO SEE
LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
REACH THE COAST AND BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND
SOME BRISK COASTAL WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
THANKSGIVING FOR MORE RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ON THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE LATER
THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE.
INCREASING WINDS AND A NOSE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW CONDITIONS
TO EVEN TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT...LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN
IMPACT THE COAST TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY. FURTHER INLAND...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRATUS DECK NEAR 5KFT IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LITTLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...ANY LOCATIONS THAT
CLEAR WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
KEUG AND KSLE...BUT THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD SNEAK INTO
THE PORTLAND METRO TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY GIVE WAY
TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DETERIORATING THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE.
REGARDLESS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY. EXPECT PRIMARILY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK COASTAL JET WILL LIKELY ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT TO SURFACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR THE 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SITUATIONS WILL KEEP THE TIMING OF THE
GALE WARNING AS IS.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL STORM
SYSTEM SO EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE WEAK LOW PRESSURES
TO OUR WEST MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT SEAS IN
THE LOWER TEENS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A FRONT
SLIDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO RELAX FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. NONETHELESS... WINDS
SHOULD TURN MORE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AND NEAR TILLAMOOK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING
     TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 260511
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
909 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE
COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN...MOSTLY OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED...OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WITH RAIN RATES OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR. AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEARING
SKIES PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...SHOULD SEE SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
ANY VISIBILITY BELOW ABOUT 1/2 MILE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. FOR THE
FORECAST UPDATE...TOOK OUT POPS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TAPERED RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OFF SLIGHTLY
FASTER. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON TODAY`S OBSERVED HIGHS AND A PERSISTENT PATTERN.
FINALLY...HAVE INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT BASED
ON LATEST MODELS. EXPECT WINDY BUT SUB-WARNING CONDITIONS. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG 130W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE RIDING OVER
THE TOP. KLGX RADAR INDICATING RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SW WA.
HOWEVER...ECHO INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS. RAINFALL RATES AS OF 21Z IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS HAVE EASED TO AROUND ONE TENTH OR LESS. 24-HR
TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SOME SNOTELS COMING IN WITH 3.5
INCHES. 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 570 DM COMBINED WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 550S AND 850 MB TEMPS 8-10C HAVE
RESULTED IN NEAR-RECORD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE MILD AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCING TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS. FOG WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE
QPF FIELD VALID 06Z FRI QUITE DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS SHOWS AN OBVIOUS
BREAK IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEPARATE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER FAR
SW OREGON AND ALSO IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF SHOW
A MUCH LARGER SRN QPF AREA EXTENDING FURTHER N...TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. BY 12Z FRI THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD SWATH
OF QPF OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TWO
SEPARATE AND DISTANT CORES. IN ANY EVENT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FRI AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCHES PHASING TOGETHER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS SAGGING S THROUGH NRN WA
FRI. MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE GFS HAS IT ALONG A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO ALBANY WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS IT A BIT MORE NORTH BUT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE
S THROUGH WA AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN
AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8 TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE
DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL
OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
COLD AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE THE COAST HAS LARGELY
REMAINED IFR OR WORSE THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING
THE SITUATION WELL AT ALL AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
REMAINED. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT TRANSITS
THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS ON DECREASING. DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE 50S AT THIS HOUR BUT SHOULD LOWER SOME THIS EVENING. HAVE
DOUBTS DEW POINTS WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP AHEAD OF TEMPERATURES AND
EXPECT TO SEE FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...FOR SPECIFIC AREAS AND DECIDED AGAIN INCLUSION IN
THE TAF PACKAGES ASIDE FROM KSLE AND KEUG. REGARDLESS...HAVE
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WHERE FOG
DOESN`T. DONT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR UNTIL PERHAPS
AFTER 19-21Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP SOME WITH ENOUGH CLEARING ALLOWING FOR A LOWER STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A 015 TO 020 DECK WILL REMAIN
UNTIL AROUND 20Z BEFORE CLEARING OUT THROUGH 27/06Z JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS HAVE STAYED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH THE HRRR MODEL HAVING THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME. THAT MODEL DOES NOT BRING A THREAT
FOR CRITERIA LEVEL GUSTS BACK UP UNTIL AFTER 5 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TIME
BEING. SEAS ARE ALSO RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE
FORECAST SO HAVE ALSO LOWERED JUST A BIT.

THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
AS A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT HAVING ISSUED A GALE WARNING.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THE MODELS VARY ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH...AND ON THE TIMING. THEREFORE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. A LARGE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SETTLE SW OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED GUSTS NEAR THE COASTAL
GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. JBONK/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 9
     AM PST WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     10 PM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260511
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
909 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE
COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN...MOSTLY OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED...OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WITH RAIN RATES OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR. AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEARING
SKIES PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...SHOULD SEE SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
ANY VISIBILITY BELOW ABOUT 1/2 MILE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. FOR THE
FORECAST UPDATE...TOOK OUT POPS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TAPERED RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OFF SLIGHTLY
FASTER. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON TODAY`S OBSERVED HIGHS AND A PERSISTENT PATTERN.
FINALLY...HAVE INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT BASED
ON LATEST MODELS. EXPECT WINDY BUT SUB-WARNING CONDITIONS. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG 130W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE RIDING OVER
THE TOP. KLGX RADAR INDICATING RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SW WA.
HOWEVER...ECHO INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS. RAINFALL RATES AS OF 21Z IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS HAVE EASED TO AROUND ONE TENTH OR LESS. 24-HR
TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SOME SNOTELS COMING IN WITH 3.5
INCHES. 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 570 DM COMBINED WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 550S AND 850 MB TEMPS 8-10C HAVE
RESULTED IN NEAR-RECORD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE MILD AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCING TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS. FOG WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE
QPF FIELD VALID 06Z FRI QUITE DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS SHOWS AN OBVIOUS
BREAK IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEPARATE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER FAR
SW OREGON AND ALSO IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF SHOW
A MUCH LARGER SRN QPF AREA EXTENDING FURTHER N...TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. BY 12Z FRI THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD SWATH
OF QPF OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TWO
SEPARATE AND DISTANT CORES. IN ANY EVENT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FRI AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCHES PHASING TOGETHER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS SAGGING S THROUGH NRN WA
FRI. MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE GFS HAS IT ALONG A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO ALBANY WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS IT A BIT MORE NORTH BUT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE
S THROUGH WA AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN
AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8 TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE
DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL
OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
COLD AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE THE COAST HAS LARGELY
REMAINED IFR OR WORSE THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING
THE SITUATION WELL AT ALL AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
REMAINED. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT TRANSITS
THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS ON DECREASING. DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE 50S AT THIS HOUR BUT SHOULD LOWER SOME THIS EVENING. HAVE
DOUBTS DEW POINTS WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP AHEAD OF TEMPERATURES AND
EXPECT TO SEE FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...FOR SPECIFIC AREAS AND DECIDED AGAIN INCLUSION IN
THE TAF PACKAGES ASIDE FROM KSLE AND KEUG. REGARDLESS...HAVE
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WHERE FOG
DOESN`T. DONT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR UNTIL PERHAPS
AFTER 19-21Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP SOME WITH ENOUGH CLEARING ALLOWING FOR A LOWER STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A 015 TO 020 DECK WILL REMAIN
UNTIL AROUND 20Z BEFORE CLEARING OUT THROUGH 27/06Z JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS HAVE STAYED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH THE HRRR MODEL HAVING THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME. THAT MODEL DOES NOT BRING A THREAT
FOR CRITERIA LEVEL GUSTS BACK UP UNTIL AFTER 5 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TIME
BEING. SEAS ARE ALSO RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE
FORECAST SO HAVE ALSO LOWERED JUST A BIT.

THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
AS A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT HAVING ISSUED A GALE WARNING.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THE MODELS VARY ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH...AND ON THE TIMING. THEREFORE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. A LARGE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SETTLE SW OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED GUSTS NEAR THE COASTAL
GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. JBONK/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 9
     AM PST WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     10 PM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 252217
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
217 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS
WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
ALONG 130W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE RIDING OVER THE TOP. KLGX RADAR
INDICATING RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SW WA. HOWEVER...ECHO INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS.
RAINFALL RATES AS OF 21Z IN THE SW WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
EASED TO AROUND ONE TENTH OR LESS. 24-HR TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH SOME SNOTELS COMING IN WITH 3.5 INCHES. 500 MB HEIGHTS
NEAR 570 DM COMBINED WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 550S AND 850 MB TEMPS 8-10C HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR-RECORD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MILD AIR MASS WILL
BE CONDUCING TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS. FOG WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE
QPF FIELD VALID 06Z FRI QUITE DIFFERWENTLY. THE GFS SHOWS AN OBVIOUS
BREAK IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEPARATE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER FAR
SW OREGON AND ALSO IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF SHOW
A MUCH LARGER SRN QPF AREA EXTENDING FURTHER N...TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. BY 12Z FRI THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD SWATH
OF QPF OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TWO
SEPARATE AND DISTANT CORES. IN ANY EVENT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FRI AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCHES PHASING TOGETHER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS SAGGING S THROUGH NRN WA
FRI. MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE GFS HAS IT ALONG A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO ALBANY WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS IT A BIT MORE NORTH BUT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE
S THROUGH WA AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN
AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8 TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE
DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL
OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
COLD AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IS
RESULTING IN A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE COAST HAS IFR/MVFR
CIGS...AND INLAND AREAS ARE VFR/MVFR. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH COAST AND KAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COAST. KONP HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO WED MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING. THEN EXPECT CIGS TO CRASH
AND VISIBILITIES TO REDUCE AS FOG DEVELOPS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CLOUD
BREAKS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER THIS EVENING TO MVFR. IF CLEARING DOES
OCCUR THIS EVENING...THEN FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS WILL
HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THE MODELS VARY ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH...AND ON THE TIMING. THEREFORE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. A LARGE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SETTLE SW OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED GUSTS NEAR THE COASTAL
GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252217
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
217 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS
WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
ALONG 130W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE RIDING OVER THE TOP. KLGX RADAR
INDICATING RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SW WA. HOWEVER...ECHO INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS.
RAINFALL RATES AS OF 21Z IN THE SW WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
EASED TO AROUND ONE TENTH OR LESS. 24-HR TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH SOME SNOTELS COMING IN WITH 3.5 INCHES. 500 MB HEIGHTS
NEAR 570 DM COMBINED WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 550S AND 850 MB TEMPS 8-10C HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR-RECORD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MILD AIR MASS WILL
BE CONDUCING TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS. FOG WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE
QPF FIELD VALID 06Z FRI QUITE DIFFERWENTLY. THE GFS SHOWS AN OBVIOUS
BREAK IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEPARATE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER FAR
SW OREGON AND ALSO IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF SHOW
A MUCH LARGER SRN QPF AREA EXTENDING FURTHER N...TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. BY 12Z FRI THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD SWATH
OF QPF OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TWO
SEPARATE AND DISTANT CORES. IN ANY EVENT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FRI AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCHES PHASING TOGETHER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS SAGGING S THROUGH NRN WA
FRI. MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE GFS HAS IT ALONG A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO ALBANY WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS IT A BIT MORE NORTH BUT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE
S THROUGH WA AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN
AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8 TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE
DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL
OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
COLD AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IS
RESULTING IN A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE COAST HAS IFR/MVFR
CIGS...AND INLAND AREAS ARE VFR/MVFR. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH COAST AND KAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COAST. KONP HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO WED MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING. THEN EXPECT CIGS TO CRASH
AND VISIBILITIES TO REDUCE AS FOG DEVELOPS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CLOUD
BREAKS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER THIS EVENING TO MVFR. IF CLEARING DOES
OCCUR THIS EVENING...THEN FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS WILL
HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THE MODELS VARY ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH...AND ON THE TIMING. THEREFORE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. A LARGE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SETTLE SW OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED GUSTS NEAR THE COASTAL
GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





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