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000
FXUS66 KPQR 021009
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP  2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS BREAKUP...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN WEDNESDAY...AND
RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOG PRODUCT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE FOG IS SKIRTING THE CENTRAL
OREGON COASTLINE. IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS NEAR TROUTDALE AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
RAPIDLY EXPANDING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING CLOUD
FORECAST SO WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE FORECAST DEPENDING ON CLOUD
TRENDS. WHAT CLOUDS DEVELOP INLAND THIS MORNING SHOULD TEMPORARILY
BREAK UP TOWARDS MIDDAY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON TODAY. A TRAILING FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH
OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. POPS WERE BUMPED UPWARDS...BUT QPF
STILL LOOKS MEAGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL PUSH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTHWARD...AND INTO A POSITION THAT SHOULD ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL
TURN MID LEVEL WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
BUILD UP THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...POOR
NIGHT TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND MODEST EAST WINDS ACROSS
THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE WILL ENHANCE FIRE WX CONCERNS. THE
MENTION OF SMOKE WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF LANE
COUNTY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DECEPTION FIRE COMPLEX. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS MOISTURE LIMITED FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS
WEEKEND THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE THIS
UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT THE MARINE LAYER
THAT HAD BEEN PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
THE GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. THIS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW IN THE FORMATION OF A
LOW MVFR CLOUD DECK NEAR KTTD. SUSPECT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL EXPAND
OVER THE COMING HOURS AND CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WILL BE COMMON IN THE
NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY SUNRISE...INCLUDING THE PDX METRO
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS KSLE. WITH DECENT ONSHORE FLOW IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE PDX METRO...
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 20Z...AND EVEN THEN IT MAY JUST TURN INTO A
SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS LAYER AROUND 3000 FT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL...WITH
IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN SOME -RA
POSSIBLE NEAR KAST AROUND 00Z AS THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WASHINGTON.  WEAGLE

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z. THIS
LIKELY LIFTS INTO A SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 3500 FT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER 01Z WITH MVFR
CIGS RE-FORMING DURING THE EVENING.  WEAGLE/SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL N-NW WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT. WINDS LIKELY EASE AND BACK LATER TODAY AS
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT DOES SO. FRONT MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME S-SW
GUSTS 15-20 KT ALONG THE S WA COAST AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. WINDS
SHIFT TO N-NW AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT BUT
AGAIN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE WED/THU
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. GUSTS 20-25 KT APPEAR
LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS WED
AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGHOUT OUR WATERS THURSDAY. SEAS MAY APPROACH
10 FT IN THE S WA COASTAL WATERS WED DUE TO SOME NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM COMBINING WITH WIND WAVES.
SEAS SHOULD EASILY REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY BE CHOPPY WED/THU AS N-NW WINDS INCREASE WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH. LIGHTER WINDS/SEAS APPEAR LIKELY FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OFFSHORE.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021009
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP  2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS BREAKUP...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN WEDNESDAY...AND
RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOG PRODUCT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE FOG IS SKIRTING THE CENTRAL
OREGON COASTLINE. IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS NEAR TROUTDALE AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
RAPIDLY EXPANDING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING CLOUD
FORECAST SO WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE FORECAST DEPENDING ON CLOUD
TRENDS. WHAT CLOUDS DEVELOP INLAND THIS MORNING SHOULD TEMPORARILY
BREAK UP TOWARDS MIDDAY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON TODAY. A TRAILING FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH
OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. POPS WERE BUMPED UPWARDS...BUT QPF
STILL LOOKS MEAGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL PUSH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTHWARD...AND INTO A POSITION THAT SHOULD ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL
TURN MID LEVEL WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
BUILD UP THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...POOR
NIGHT TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND MODEST EAST WINDS ACROSS
THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE WILL ENHANCE FIRE WX CONCERNS. THE
MENTION OF SMOKE WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF LANE
COUNTY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DECEPTION FIRE COMPLEX. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS MOISTURE LIMITED FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS
WEEKEND THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE THIS
UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT THE MARINE LAYER
THAT HAD BEEN PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
THE GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. THIS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW IN THE FORMATION OF A
LOW MVFR CLOUD DECK NEAR KTTD. SUSPECT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL EXPAND
OVER THE COMING HOURS AND CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WILL BE COMMON IN THE
NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY SUNRISE...INCLUDING THE PDX METRO
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS KSLE. WITH DECENT ONSHORE FLOW IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE PDX METRO...
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 20Z...AND EVEN THEN IT MAY JUST TURN INTO A
SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS LAYER AROUND 3000 FT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL...WITH
IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN SOME -RA
POSSIBLE NEAR KAST AROUND 00Z AS THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WASHINGTON.  WEAGLE

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z. THIS
LIKELY LIFTS INTO A SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 3500 FT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER 01Z WITH MVFR
CIGS RE-FORMING DURING THE EVENING.  WEAGLE/SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL N-NW WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT. WINDS LIKELY EASE AND BACK LATER TODAY AS
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT DOES SO. FRONT MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME S-SW
GUSTS 15-20 KT ALONG THE S WA COAST AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. WINDS
SHIFT TO N-NW AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT BUT
AGAIN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE WED/THU
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. GUSTS 20-25 KT APPEAR
LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS WED
AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGHOUT OUR WATERS THURSDAY. SEAS MAY APPROACH
10 FT IN THE S WA COASTAL WATERS WED DUE TO SOME NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM COMBINING WITH WIND WAVES.
SEAS SHOULD EASILY REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY BE CHOPPY WED/THU AS N-NW WINDS INCREASE WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH. LIGHTER WINDS/SEAS APPEAR LIKELY FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OFFSHORE.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 020421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 PM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MARINE STRATUS IS FORMING IN NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING SHOULD SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH PARTIALLY
INLAND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE
FAR NORTHERN PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUDS CLEARED FOR MOST
EVERYONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT ARE
SHOWING MARINE STRATUS BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST IN NW
FLOW. EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN PUSH AT LEAST PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS BETTER ONSHORE GRADIENT AT CURRENT THAN WE
SAW 24 HRS AGO...SO THINK THE CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST FILL IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN UP TO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. LESS CLEAR IS
WHETHER CLOUDS WILL FILL THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL GET ENOUGH EXTRA PUSH FROM AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH
COAST/COAST RANGE AND PART OF THE INLAND AREA. BEST CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST WA...BUT THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND NORTH CASCADES WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT AND COULD GET A LITTLE RAIN AS WELL.THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. PYLE/TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS
MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE
RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS WEEKEND THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF HOW FAR
OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE
THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE
MARINE INVERSION TO LOWER SOME ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS CLEARED ALL
BUT THE NORTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS BUT THIS DECK COULD LOWER TO IFR 11Z-16Z.
FROM FLORENCE TO KONP EXPECT MORE IFR LOW CIGS AND VIS TO DEVELOP
AFT 06Z...CAN ALREADY SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP INTO KSPB-KTTD AFTER 10Z OR SO
AND PROBABLY TO KSLE 13-19Z. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEEK FRONT
WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INLAND TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z.
. SOME VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER ARE 01-06Z WEDNESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...MARINE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED AND HAVE LOWERED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BUT A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN WATERS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WESTERLY WINDS
BRIEFLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY GIVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
ESPECIALLY
IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILDS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...3 TO 5FT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... BUT SEAS
MAY GET CLOSE TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLIES DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD BUILDING THERMAL TROUGH. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 PM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MARINE STRATUS IS FORMING IN NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING SHOULD SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH PARTIALLY
INLAND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE
FAR NORTHERN PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUDS CLEARED FOR MOST
EVERYONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT ARE
SHOWING MARINE STRATUS BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST IN NW
FLOW. EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN PUSH AT LEAST PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS BETTER ONSHORE GRADIENT AT CURRENT THAN WE
SAW 24 HRS AGO...SO THINK THE CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST FILL IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN UP TO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. LESS CLEAR IS
WHETHER CLOUDS WILL FILL THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL GET ENOUGH EXTRA PUSH FROM AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH
COAST/COAST RANGE AND PART OF THE INLAND AREA. BEST CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST WA...BUT THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND NORTH CASCADES WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT AND COULD GET A LITTLE RAIN AS WELL.THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. PYLE/TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS
MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE
RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS WEEKEND THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF HOW FAR
OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE
THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE
MARINE INVERSION TO LOWER SOME ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS CLEARED ALL
BUT THE NORTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS BUT THIS DECK COULD LOWER TO IFR 11Z-16Z.
FROM FLORENCE TO KONP EXPECT MORE IFR LOW CIGS AND VIS TO DEVELOP
AFT 06Z...CAN ALREADY SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP INTO KSPB-KTTD AFTER 10Z OR SO
AND PROBABLY TO KSLE 13-19Z. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEEK FRONT
WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INLAND TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z.
. SOME VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER ARE 01-06Z WEDNESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...MARINE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED AND HAVE LOWERED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BUT A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN WATERS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WESTERLY WINDS
BRIEFLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY GIVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
ESPECIALLY
IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILDS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...3 TO 5FT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... BUT SEAS
MAY GET CLOSE TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLIES DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD BUILDING THERMAL TROUGH. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 020421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 PM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MARINE STRATUS IS FORMING IN NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING SHOULD SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH PARTIALLY
INLAND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE
FAR NORTHERN PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUDS CLEARED FOR MOST
EVERYONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT ARE
SHOWING MARINE STRATUS BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST IN NW
FLOW. EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN PUSH AT LEAST PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS BETTER ONSHORE GRADIENT AT CURRENT THAN WE
SAW 24 HRS AGO...SO THINK THE CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST FILL IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN UP TO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. LESS CLEAR IS
WHETHER CLOUDS WILL FILL THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL GET ENOUGH EXTRA PUSH FROM AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH
COAST/COAST RANGE AND PART OF THE INLAND AREA. BEST CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST WA...BUT THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND NORTH CASCADES WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT AND COULD GET A LITTLE RAIN AS WELL.THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. PYLE/TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS
MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE
RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS WEEKEND THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF HOW FAR
OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE
THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE
MARINE INVERSION TO LOWER SOME ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS CLEARED ALL
BUT THE NORTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS BUT THIS DECK COULD LOWER TO IFR 11Z-16Z.
FROM FLORENCE TO KONP EXPECT MORE IFR LOW CIGS AND VIS TO DEVELOP
AFT 06Z...CAN ALREADY SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP INTO KSPB-KTTD AFTER 10Z OR SO
AND PROBABLY TO KSLE 13-19Z. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEEK FRONT
WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INLAND TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z.
. SOME VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER ARE 01-06Z WEDNESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...MARINE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED AND HAVE LOWERED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BUT A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN WATERS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WESTERLY WINDS
BRIEFLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY GIVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
ESPECIALLY
IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILDS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...3 TO 5FT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... BUT SEAS
MAY GET CLOSE TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLIES DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD BUILDING THERMAL TROUGH. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 012126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 PM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.  AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY BRINING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAKENING FRONT JUST OFF
THE WA/OR COAST THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING A PERSISTENT AREA OF CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH COASTAL AREA...MAINLY FROM ABOUT TILLAMOOK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON. WEBCAM IMAGERY AT ASTORIA THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SHOWED
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME. ELSEWHERE...
LOTS OF SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO A SPLENDID LABOR DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL DROP SOUTH
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW LATER TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN
TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. THUS...EXPECT
MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY MORNING.  A WEAK FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST/COAST RANGE AND PART
OF THE INLAND AREA. BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHWEST WA...BUT THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS AND NORTH CASCADES WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT AND COULD GET ALITTLE RAIN TUES EVE/NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS
MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE
RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS WEEKEND THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF HOW FAR
OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE
THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BY THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND BRUSH EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY FOR SOME FOR
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS
AND INLAND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KKLS OR SO. THE LOWEST CIGS
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS. FARTHER INLAND THERE MAY BE
A FEW CIGS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT LESS CHANCE IN THE VALLEYS. THE
SURFACE PATTERN SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL TEND TO STAY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NE PACIFIC...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INLAND TO KPDX AND POSSIBLY A BIT SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS OR PERHAPS HIGH IFR AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON THE COAST...APPROACHING KPDX BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...
WHICH IS 5 PM TUESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME VFR CIGS
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND 5000 OR 6000
FT. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY. SOME VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH BRIEFLY
TURNED THE WINDS IN OUR NORTHERN WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...BUT
THEN WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST...WHICH
MAY GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD GUSTS TO OUR CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS MAINLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL
BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY AND
ONSHORE TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME
MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY GIVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE
20 KT AS WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH
BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILDS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

SEAS MAY GET CLOSE TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLIES DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD BUILDING THERMAL TROUGH. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 012126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 PM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.  AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY BRINING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAKENING FRONT JUST OFF
THE WA/OR COAST THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING A PERSISTENT AREA OF CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH COASTAL AREA...MAINLY FROM ABOUT TILLAMOOK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON. WEBCAM IMAGERY AT ASTORIA THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SHOWED
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME. ELSEWHERE...
LOTS OF SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO A SPLENDID LABOR DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL DROP SOUTH
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW LATER TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN
TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. THUS...EXPECT
MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY MORNING.  A WEAK FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST/COAST RANGE AND PART
OF THE INLAND AREA. BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHWEST WA...BUT THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS AND NORTH CASCADES WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT AND COULD GET ALITTLE RAIN TUES EVE/NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS
MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE
RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS WEEKEND THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF HOW FAR
OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE
THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BY THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND BRUSH EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY FOR SOME FOR
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS
AND INLAND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KKLS OR SO. THE LOWEST CIGS
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS. FARTHER INLAND THERE MAY BE
A FEW CIGS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT LESS CHANCE IN THE VALLEYS. THE
SURFACE PATTERN SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL TEND TO STAY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NE PACIFIC...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INLAND TO KPDX AND POSSIBLY A BIT SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS OR PERHAPS HIGH IFR AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON THE COAST...APPROACHING KPDX BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...
WHICH IS 5 PM TUESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME VFR CIGS
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND 5000 OR 6000
FT. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY. SOME VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH BRIEFLY
TURNED THE WINDS IN OUR NORTHERN WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...BUT
THEN WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST...WHICH
MAY GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD GUSTS TO OUR CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS MAINLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL
BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY AND
ONSHORE TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME
MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY GIVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE
20 KT AS WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH
BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILDS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

SEAS MAY GET CLOSE TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLIES DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD BUILDING THERMAL TROUGH. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 011623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 AM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE NORTH
COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. CLOUDY
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND.  A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH
TODAY AND MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE TO THE NORTH COASTAL AREA
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND
EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS OFFSHORE TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN AND EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUDY NORTH OF SALEM. THE FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THURSDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
DEVELOPING A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TW/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE OFFSHORE WINDS FOR DRY...SUNNY...AND SEASONALLY WARM
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BY THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND BRUSH EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY FOR SOME FOR
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST AND INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS INLAND WERE ALREADY
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CASCADES. THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT THOSE TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CIGS INLAND POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH OF KSLE. THE CENTRAL COAST NEAR KONP WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS FOR AWHILE...BUT MAY ALSO SEE SOME CIGS LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NE
PACIFIC...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INLAND TO KPDX AND POSSIBLY A BIT SOUTH BY TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME CIGS FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND 5000 OR 6000 FT. THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL TOWARDS
12Z TUESDAY. PT

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR N WAS BRIEFLY
TURNING THE WINDS IN OUR N WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...BUT THEN
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOR NLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST...WHICH MAY GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLD GUSTS TO OUR CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MAINLY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL BAND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY AND ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN N CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD N INTO SOUTHERN WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THU AND FRI AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS N ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...WITH A FEW
GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE VALUES.

SEAS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRI...PEAKING NEAR 8 OR EVEN
9 FT THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 011623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 AM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE NORTH
COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. CLOUDY
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND.  A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH
TODAY AND MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE TO THE NORTH COASTAL AREA
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND
EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS OFFSHORE TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN AND EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUDY NORTH OF SALEM. THE FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THURSDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
DEVELOPING A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TW/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE OFFSHORE WINDS FOR DRY...SUNNY...AND SEASONALLY WARM
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BY THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND BRUSH EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY FOR SOME FOR
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST AND INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS INLAND WERE ALREADY
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CASCADES. THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT THOSE TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CIGS INLAND POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH OF KSLE. THE CENTRAL COAST NEAR KONP WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS FOR AWHILE...BUT MAY ALSO SEE SOME CIGS LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NE
PACIFIC...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INLAND TO KPDX AND POSSIBLY A BIT SOUTH BY TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME CIGS FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND 5000 OR 6000 FT. THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL TOWARDS
12Z TUESDAY. PT

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR N WAS BRIEFLY
TURNING THE WINDS IN OUR N WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...BUT THEN
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOR NLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST...WHICH MAY GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLD GUSTS TO OUR CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MAINLY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL BAND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY AND ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN N CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD N INTO SOUTHERN WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THU AND FRI AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS N ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...WITH A FEW
GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE VALUES.

SEAS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRI...PEAKING NEAR 8 OR EVEN
9 FT THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011017
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
317 AM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA TODAY...KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE NORTH
COAST AND AREAS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES INLAND AND TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO SW WASHINGTON TUESDAY EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR NW OREGON
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIVER OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON. WEAK
OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST IS KEEPING THE MARINE CLOUDS JUST
OFFSHORE.

A WEAKENING FRONT IS APPROACHING SW WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NW OREGON
AND SHOULD BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF TILLAMOOK
AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MEASURABLE RAIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND TODAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND
EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS OFFSHORE TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN AND EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUDY NORTH OF SALEM. THE FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND INLAND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THURSDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
FORMING A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEARER SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE WINDS FOR DRY...SUNNY...AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A MODESTLY DRY LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALL THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARDS THE PORTLAND
METRO TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS AT KONP WILL PROBABLY
GIVE WAY TO LIFR/IFR FOG THIS MORNING. AFTER TRANSITIONING TO VFR
LATE THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON...HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS EVENING AT KONP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL TOWARDS 12Z
TUESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WINDS WILL PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STEEP DUE 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011017
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
317 AM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA TODAY...KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE NORTH
COAST AND AREAS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES INLAND AND TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO SW WASHINGTON TUESDAY EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR NW OREGON
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIVER OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON. WEAK
OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST IS KEEPING THE MARINE CLOUDS JUST
OFFSHORE.

A WEAKENING FRONT IS APPROACHING SW WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NW OREGON
AND SHOULD BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF TILLAMOOK
AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MEASURABLE RAIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND TODAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND
EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS OFFSHORE TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN AND EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUDY NORTH OF SALEM. THE FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND INLAND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THURSDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
FORMING A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEARER SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE WINDS FOR DRY...SUNNY...AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A MODESTLY DRY LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALL THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARDS THE PORTLAND
METRO TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS AT KONP WILL PROBABLY
GIVE WAY TO LIFR/IFR FOG THIS MORNING. AFTER TRANSITIONING TO VFR
LATE THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON...HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS EVENING AT KONP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL TOWARDS 12Z
TUESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WINDS WILL PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STEEP DUE 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 010433
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MON...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. THEN WARMER AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR REST OF THE
WEEK UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS SCATTERING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING NOW AND DOPPLER
RADAR IS SHOWING NOTHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. SO DECIDED TO
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND THE ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG...SO DO NOT
EXPECT A VERY IMPRESSIVE INLAND PUSH. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT MUCH BEYOND KELSO. ANOTHER CLOUD DECK MAY FORM ALONG THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND BACK BUILD TOWARD THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE NW FLOW REMAINS OVER PAC N TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STORM TRACK WILL KEEP THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO THE N
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. TOMORROW LOOKS DRY AS THREAT
OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS.


THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION.
WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE AND
KEEP IT DRY TO THE S. LIKE MON...BULK OF PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.

THEN WILL CHANGE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD FOR WED...AFTER SOME MORNING
CLOUDS. PYLE/ROCKEY

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT
IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT SUNDAY.
WITH THIS SYSTEM WE WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TJ/64
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT AFTER 02Z-04Z. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED INLAND
MON MORNING MAINLY AFTER 12Z...BUT INLAND SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
MON AND EVEN COASTAL SITES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MON. A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS 13Z-17Z MON MORNING. BOWEN/TW

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE WATERS IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN THAT HAS OCCURRED
SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS....ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST MODELS
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY FURTHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY
NIGHT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE. ALSO UPPED WIND WAVES AND THUS COMBINED SEAS FOR
THE SAME TIME FRAME. EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4
AND 7 FT...PEAKING LATE THURSDAY AT 8 FT...WITH THE PREDOMINANT
SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
BOWEN/TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010433
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MON...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. THEN WARMER AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR REST OF THE
WEEK UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS SCATTERING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING NOW AND DOPPLER
RADAR IS SHOWING NOTHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. SO DECIDED TO
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND THE ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG...SO DO NOT
EXPECT A VERY IMPRESSIVE INLAND PUSH. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT MUCH BEYOND KELSO. ANOTHER CLOUD DECK MAY FORM ALONG THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND BACK BUILD TOWARD THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE NW FLOW REMAINS OVER PAC N TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STORM TRACK WILL KEEP THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO THE N
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. TOMORROW LOOKS DRY AS THREAT
OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS.


THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION.
WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE AND
KEEP IT DRY TO THE S. LIKE MON...BULK OF PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.

THEN WILL CHANGE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD FOR WED...AFTER SOME MORNING
CLOUDS. PYLE/ROCKEY

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT
IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT SUNDAY.
WITH THIS SYSTEM WE WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TJ/64
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT AFTER 02Z-04Z. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED INLAND
MON MORNING MAINLY AFTER 12Z...BUT INLAND SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
MON AND EVEN COASTAL SITES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MON. A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS 13Z-17Z MON MORNING. BOWEN/TW

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE WATERS IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN THAT HAS OCCURRED
SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS....ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST MODELS
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY FURTHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY
NIGHT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE. ALSO UPPED WIND WAVES AND THUS COMBINED SEAS FOR
THE SAME TIME FRAME. EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4
AND 7 FT...PEAKING LATE THURSDAY AT 8 FT...WITH THE PREDOMINANT
SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
BOWEN/TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 312135
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS AND FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR
OFF LATER THIS EVENING. WILL SEE CLOUDS RETURN LATE TONIGHT. NICE DAY
FOR MON...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER FOR REST OF THE WEEK UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A VERY MINOR THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE S WASH CASCADES TO MT HOOD THIS EVENING. WITH CLOUD BUILD
UPS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES ACROSS N COAST RANGE
AND WILLAPA HILLS...ACROSS THE COWLITZ...LOWER COLUMBIA AND N
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND INTO NEARBY CASCADES. BY SUNSET...CLOUDS WILL
BREAKUP AND SHOWERS END AS AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE A BIT.

THE NW FLOW REMAINS OVER PAC N TO START THIS WEEK. STORM TRACK WILL
KEEP THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO THE N ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON. MON LOOKS DRY AS THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE RANGE...OR NEAR 80 INLAND.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION.
WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE AND
KEEP IT DRY TO THE S. LIKE MON...BULK OF PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRIT COLUMBIA.

THEN WILL CHANGE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD FOR WED...AFTER SOME MORNING
CLOUDS ON WED.                     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT
IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT SUNDAY.
WITH THIS SYSTEM WE WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TJ64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST AND INLAND THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AFTER 02Z-04Z. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
INLAND MON MORNING MAINLY AFTER 12Z...BUT INLAND SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR MON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MON. A 15 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z MON.
&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY WITH
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PLACE THE WATERS IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN THAT
HAS OCCURRED SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS....ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FT WITH THE
PREDOMINANT SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. TW
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312135
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS AND FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR
OFF LATER THIS EVENING. WILL SEE CLOUDS RETURN LATE TONIGHT. NICE DAY
FOR MON...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER FOR REST OF THE WEEK UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A VERY MINOR THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE S WASH CASCADES TO MT HOOD THIS EVENING. WITH CLOUD BUILD
UPS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES ACROSS N COAST RANGE
AND WILLAPA HILLS...ACROSS THE COWLITZ...LOWER COLUMBIA AND N
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND INTO NEARBY CASCADES. BY SUNSET...CLOUDS WILL
BREAKUP AND SHOWERS END AS AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE A BIT.

THE NW FLOW REMAINS OVER PAC N TO START THIS WEEK. STORM TRACK WILL
KEEP THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO THE N ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON. MON LOOKS DRY AS THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE RANGE...OR NEAR 80 INLAND.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION.
WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE AND
KEEP IT DRY TO THE S. LIKE MON...BULK OF PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRIT COLUMBIA.

THEN WILL CHANGE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD FOR WED...AFTER SOME MORNING
CLOUDS ON WED.                     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT
IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT SUNDAY.
WITH THIS SYSTEM WE WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TJ64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST AND INLAND THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AFTER 02Z-04Z. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
INLAND MON MORNING MAINLY AFTER 12Z...BUT INLAND SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR MON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MON. A 15 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z MON.
&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY WITH
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PLACE THE WATERS IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN THAT
HAS OCCURRED SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS....ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FT WITH THE
PREDOMINANT SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. TW
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 311547
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
842 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER FOR REST OF THE WEEK UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.OVERALL...NOT MUCH CHANGE
WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE FEW DAYS. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...WITH 70S INLAND AND 60S
ALONG THE COAST. STILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...BUT THAT WILL BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING. WITH
ONSHORE FLOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP MINOR THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE N COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS...AND INTO THE S WASH CASCADES S
TO MT HOOD. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A GOOD LOOKING DAY.

WITH THE NW FLOW STILL OVER PAC NW...STORM TRACK WILL KEEP THE
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO THE N ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON. WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA THAT AREA REMAIN DRY
ON MON...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CLIPPING SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME N OREGON COAST RANGE. WILL GO WITH MOS
TRENDS OF MON HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND...WARMEST TO S
OF SALEM. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST STAY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION.
WILL LOOK AT MODELS...BUT MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT SHIFT OR TWO
FOR MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS DEVELOP THAT WOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
PRECIP PROBABILITY FOR LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT
BEEN TOO GOOD...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.            ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
AND INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS INLAND TODAY...WITH PERIODS
OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THE EXCEPTION INLAND
IS SOME IFR AND MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY THROUGH 16Z-17Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BUT TIMING AND DURATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT...BUT INLAND PENETRATION SHOULD BE LIMITED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAKENING FRONT
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TUESDAY WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER
INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PLACE THE WATERS IN A
FAMILIAR THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT
SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FT WITH THE
PREDOMINANT SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. TW/NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311547
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
842 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER FOR REST OF THE WEEK UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.OVERALL...NOT MUCH CHANGE
WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE FEW DAYS. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...WITH 70S INLAND AND 60S
ALONG THE COAST. STILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...BUT THAT WILL BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING. WITH
ONSHORE FLOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP MINOR THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE N COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS...AND INTO THE S WASH CASCADES S
TO MT HOOD. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A GOOD LOOKING DAY.

WITH THE NW FLOW STILL OVER PAC NW...STORM TRACK WILL KEEP THE
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO THE N ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON. WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA THAT AREA REMAIN DRY
ON MON...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CLIPPING SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME N OREGON COAST RANGE. WILL GO WITH MOS
TRENDS OF MON HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND...WARMEST TO S
OF SALEM. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST STAY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION.
WILL LOOK AT MODELS...BUT MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT SHIFT OR TWO
FOR MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS DEVELOP THAT WOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
PRECIP PROBABILITY FOR LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT
BEEN TOO GOOD...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.            ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
AND INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS INLAND TODAY...WITH PERIODS
OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THE EXCEPTION INLAND
IS SOME IFR AND MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY THROUGH 16Z-17Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BUT TIMING AND DURATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT...BUT INLAND PENETRATION SHOULD BE LIMITED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAKENING FRONT
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TUESDAY WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER
INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PLACE THE WATERS IN A
FAMILIAR THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT
SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FT WITH THE
PREDOMINANT SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. TW/NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 311547
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
842 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER FOR REST OF THE WEEK UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.OVERALL...NOT MUCH CHANGE
WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE FEW DAYS. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...WITH 70S INLAND AND 60S
ALONG THE COAST. STILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...BUT THAT WILL BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING. WITH
ONSHORE FLOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP MINOR THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE N COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS...AND INTO THE S WASH CASCADES S
TO MT HOOD. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A GOOD LOOKING DAY.

WITH THE NW FLOW STILL OVER PAC NW...STORM TRACK WILL KEEP THE
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO THE N ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON. WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA THAT AREA REMAIN DRY
ON MON...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CLIPPING SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME N OREGON COAST RANGE. WILL GO WITH MOS
TRENDS OF MON HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND...WARMEST TO S
OF SALEM. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST STAY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION.
WILL LOOK AT MODELS...BUT MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT SHIFT OR TWO
FOR MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS DEVELOP THAT WOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
PRECIP PROBABILITY FOR LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT
BEEN TOO GOOD...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.            ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
AND INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS INLAND TODAY...WITH PERIODS
OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THE EXCEPTION INLAND
IS SOME IFR AND MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY THROUGH 16Z-17Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BUT TIMING AND DURATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT...BUT INLAND PENETRATION SHOULD BE LIMITED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAKENING FRONT
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TUESDAY WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER
INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PLACE THE WATERS IN A
FAMILIAR THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT
SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FT WITH THE
PREDOMINANT SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. TW/NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311015
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
314 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMING MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
PACIFIC NW SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC
AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
WEAK ECHOS OFF SHORE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES EARLY THIS MORNING. INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OFFSHORE THAT WILL MOVE OVER NW
OREGON THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HELP MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
TODAY.

 THE UPPER JET THAT HELPED PRODUCE LIFT OVER NW OREGON ON SATURDAY
HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR THE REGION. THE STORM TRACK IS ALSO FURTHER NORTH...SUCH THAT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW...WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY TO THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA WILL MOST LIKELY NOT PRODUCE ANY
RAIN OVER NW OREGON. HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN MONDAY...AND THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS
WARMING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON...BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...A
DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING FAR
INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING.TJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
AND INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND A
MOIST...BUT RELATIVELY UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD GENERALLY
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR INLAND...WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING AND DURATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR
A FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT INLAND PENETRATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND 15Z MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAKENING FRONT
ON MONDAY. FEW MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PLACE
THE WATERS IN A FAMILIAR THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FT WITH
THE PREDOMINANT SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311015
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
314 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMING MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
PACIFIC NW SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC
AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
WEAK ECHOS OFF SHORE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES EARLY THIS MORNING. INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OFFSHORE THAT WILL MOVE OVER NW
OREGON THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HELP MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
TODAY.

 THE UPPER JET THAT HELPED PRODUCE LIFT OVER NW OREGON ON SATURDAY
HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR THE REGION. THE STORM TRACK IS ALSO FURTHER NORTH...SUCH THAT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW...WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY TO THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA WILL MOST LIKELY NOT PRODUCE ANY
RAIN OVER NW OREGON. HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN MONDAY...AND THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS
WARMING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON...BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...A
DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING FAR
INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING.TJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
AND INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND A
MOIST...BUT RELATIVELY UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD GENERALLY
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR INLAND...WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING AND DURATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR
A FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT INLAND PENETRATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND 15Z MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAKENING FRONT
ON MONDAY. FEW MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PLACE
THE WATERS IN A FAMILIAR THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FT WITH
THE PREDOMINANT SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 310414
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
914 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...AND THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES.
CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN FOR SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THEN A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE PACIFIC MONDAY...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE SAW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EVEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON TODAY. A LINE OF TRAINING SHOWERS OVER CLACKAMAS COUNTY
DROPPED A NEARLY 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER ABOUT A TWO HOUR PERIOD IN
PARTS OF THE CLACKAMAS RIVER BASIN BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES. THIS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT SEE TOTALS
NEARLY AS HIGH...BUT MOST EVERYONE SAW MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE
IMPRESSIVE LATE AUGUST PRECIPITATION WAS AIDED BY SEVERAL
FACTORS...INCLUDING A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND A SURFACE FRONT
MOVING ONSHORE.

THE PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY STILL
SHOWS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS AND A
FEW WEAK ECHOES ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND COAST. AREAS THAT
HAVE SCATTERED OUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT ANOTHER COOL AND FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ANOTHER VERY WEAK FRONT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TOMORROW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE
INCREASED 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM
MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIVES DOWN FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TUESDAY...WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. LATE
NEXT WEEK THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF
LOW...HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS HAVE CREATED A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. STILL LEANING TOWARDS IT
BEING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED OFF TO THE EAST EARLIER THIS
EVENING ALLOWING SHOWERS TO END AND SKIES TO CLEAR TO VFR OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MVFR INLAND FROM THE COAST AFTER 31/10Z...CONTINUE THROUGH
MID MORNING SUNDAY...THEN LIFT TO VFR. AT THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CIGS/VIS IN STRATUS/FG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND 31/10Z...CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT TO VFR. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW LIGHT SW WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE BACKING TO THE NW BY MONDAY. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL OF 1 TO 2 FEET AT AROUND 15 SECONDS
AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 TO 10
SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL
BUILD TONIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 6 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310414
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
914 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...AND THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES.
CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN FOR SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THEN A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE PACIFIC MONDAY...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE SAW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EVEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON TODAY. A LINE OF TRAINING SHOWERS OVER CLACKAMAS COUNTY
DROPPED A NEARLY 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER ABOUT A TWO HOUR PERIOD IN
PARTS OF THE CLACKAMAS RIVER BASIN BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES. THIS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT SEE TOTALS
NEARLY AS HIGH...BUT MOST EVERYONE SAW MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE
IMPRESSIVE LATE AUGUST PRECIPITATION WAS AIDED BY SEVERAL
FACTORS...INCLUDING A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND A SURFACE FRONT
MOVING ONSHORE.

THE PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY STILL
SHOWS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS AND A
FEW WEAK ECHOES ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND COAST. AREAS THAT
HAVE SCATTERED OUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT ANOTHER COOL AND FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ANOTHER VERY WEAK FRONT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TOMORROW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE
INCREASED 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM
MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIVES DOWN FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TUESDAY...WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. LATE
NEXT WEEK THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF
LOW...HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS HAVE CREATED A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. STILL LEANING TOWARDS IT
BEING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED OFF TO THE EAST EARLIER THIS
EVENING ALLOWING SHOWERS TO END AND SKIES TO CLEAR TO VFR OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MVFR INLAND FROM THE COAST AFTER 31/10Z...CONTINUE THROUGH
MID MORNING SUNDAY...THEN LIFT TO VFR. AT THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CIGS/VIS IN STRATUS/FG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND 31/10Z...CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT TO VFR. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW LIGHT SW WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE BACKING TO THE NW BY MONDAY. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL OF 1 TO 2 FEET AT AROUND 15 SECONDS
AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 TO 10
SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL
BUILD TONIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 6 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 302200
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND..WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE FRONTS. THIS WILL BRING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PERIODIC
RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE PACIFIC
MONDAY...BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

A DISCONNECTED LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY. CURRENT ORIENTATION OF THE
JET STREAM PUTS US IN THE AREA OF FAVORABLE FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WHICH HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE STRONGER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVEN A LONE LIGHTNING STRIKE IN NORTHERN MARION COUNTY AROUND 145
PM. AS EXPECTED...RAIN HAS MOSTLY CLEARED OUT ON THE COAST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR NEWPORT
WHICH MAY BE A SIDE EFFECT OF COLOCATION WITH THE JET STREAK. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS
OVERNIGHT TO COOL DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE THAN LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN IS WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS
NORTHWARD...REDUCING ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHERNMOST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH
POPS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND EXPECT ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT TO CLIP THE NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RIDGING TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ON TUESDAY BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG INTO SE BRITISH COLUMBIA. ALTHOUGH WEAK...AN
ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE FOR SOME ENHANCED FORCING DUE TO A WEAK JET
STREAK MOVING INTO NW WASHINGTON SO OVERALL DECREASED POPS TUESDAY
BUT KEPT THEM MENTIONABLE ACROSS THE SW WASHINGTON PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. LATE
NEXT WEEK THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF
LOW...HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS HAVE CREATED A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. STILL LEANING TOWARDS IT
BEING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOSTLY A
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS INLAND...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN SHOWERS. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVERNIGHT...LIKELY
BRINGING SOME 2000-2500 FT CIGS NEAR SUNRISE EARLY SUNDAY AM ALONG
THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER. OTHERWISE...MOST INLAND SITES WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FT. COASTAL SITES WILL REMAIN
MVFR AND IFR THROUGH SUNDAY AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT. EXPECT LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THROUGH
04-06Z SUNDAY. A FEW 2000 FT CIGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FROM 14-17Z
SUNDAY. /27

&&

.MARINE...AFTER A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY...THE NEXT
STRONGER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW LIGHT SW WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE BACKING TO THE NW BY
MONDAY. THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL OF 1 TO 2
FEET AT AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 6
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 302200
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND..WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE FRONTS. THIS WILL BRING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PERIODIC
RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE PACIFIC
MONDAY...BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

A DISCONNECTED LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY. CURRENT ORIENTATION OF THE
JET STREAM PUTS US IN THE AREA OF FAVORABLE FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WHICH HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE STRONGER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVEN A LONE LIGHTNING STRIKE IN NORTHERN MARION COUNTY AROUND 145
PM. AS EXPECTED...RAIN HAS MOSTLY CLEARED OUT ON THE COAST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR NEWPORT
WHICH MAY BE A SIDE EFFECT OF COLOCATION WITH THE JET STREAK. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS
OVERNIGHT TO COOL DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE THAN LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN IS WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS
NORTHWARD...REDUCING ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHERNMOST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH
POPS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND EXPECT ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT TO CLIP THE NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RIDGING TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ON TUESDAY BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG INTO SE BRITISH COLUMBIA. ALTHOUGH WEAK...AN
ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE FOR SOME ENHANCED FORCING DUE TO A WEAK JET
STREAK MOVING INTO NW WASHINGTON SO OVERALL DECREASED POPS TUESDAY
BUT KEPT THEM MENTIONABLE ACROSS THE SW WASHINGTON PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. LATE
NEXT WEEK THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF
LOW...HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS HAVE CREATED A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. STILL LEANING TOWARDS IT
BEING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOSTLY A
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS INLAND...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN SHOWERS. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVERNIGHT...LIKELY
BRINGING SOME 2000-2500 FT CIGS NEAR SUNRISE EARLY SUNDAY AM ALONG
THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER. OTHERWISE...MOST INLAND SITES WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FT. COASTAL SITES WILL REMAIN
MVFR AND IFR THROUGH SUNDAY AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT. EXPECT LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THROUGH
04-06Z SUNDAY. A FEW 2000 FT CIGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FROM 14-17Z
SUNDAY. /27

&&

.MARINE...AFTER A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY...THE NEXT
STRONGER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW LIGHT SW WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE BACKING TO THE NW BY
MONDAY. THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL OF 1 TO 2
FEET AT AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 6
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





000
FXUS66 KPQR 301630
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND..WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE FRONTS. THIS WILL BRING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PERIODIC
RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE PACIFIC
MONDAY...BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AT LEAST
NORTH OF LANE COUNTY WITH RAIN RATES OF GENERALLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR WITH CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN
MORE MODERATE SHOWERS. ALL OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY SITS JUST OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS SUCH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAISED NEAR-TERM POPS ACROSS
SW WASHINGTON AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH VALLEY TO REFLECT RECENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS A BIT IN THE VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DETECTED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY AROUND 50 MILES OFFSHORE...APPROACHES. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING LIGHT RAIN WITH IT. SATELLITE DERIVED TROPICAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS TPW GREATER THAN AN INCH. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A 122KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SW
OREGON...PROVIDES A GREAT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NW OREGON
AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS.

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE DAY AND
HANG UP OVER THE CASCADES IN THE EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND CALM
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.  THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN IS WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS
NORTHWARD...AND REDUCED ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT...POSSIBLY MORE DRIZZLE THAN RAIN AND BE
RESTRICTED TO AREAS NORTH OF SALEM.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING
OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND EXPECT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO
CLIP THE NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TJ

.LONG TERM...A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC
NW TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST....PUTTING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP
GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...THEN
DECREASE THIS EVENING. MOSTLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...
THEN TREND MORE TOWARDS MVFR THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY. INLAND
AREAS...MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AROUND
1500-2500 FT MAINLY AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR KPDX
THIS MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS IN THE 4000-6000
FT RANGE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW 2000 FT CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 17Z
THIS MORNING. /27

&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
A THIRD...POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL OF 1 TO 2 FEET AT
AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 6 FEET ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
MH/WRIGHT/SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301630
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND..WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE FRONTS. THIS WILL BRING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PERIODIC
RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE PACIFIC
MONDAY...BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AT LEAST
NORTH OF LANE COUNTY WITH RAIN RATES OF GENERALLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR WITH CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN
MORE MODERATE SHOWERS. ALL OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY SITS JUST OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS SUCH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAISED NEAR-TERM POPS ACROSS
SW WASHINGTON AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH VALLEY TO REFLECT RECENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS A BIT IN THE VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DETECTED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY AROUND 50 MILES OFFSHORE...APPROACHES. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING LIGHT RAIN WITH IT. SATELLITE DERIVED TROPICAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS TPW GREATER THAN AN INCH. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A 122KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SW
OREGON...PROVIDES A GREAT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NW OREGON
AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS.

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE DAY AND
HANG UP OVER THE CASCADES IN THE EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND CALM
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.  THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN IS WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS
NORTHWARD...AND REDUCED ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT...POSSIBLY MORE DRIZZLE THAN RAIN AND BE
RESTRICTED TO AREAS NORTH OF SALEM.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING
OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND EXPECT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO
CLIP THE NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TJ

.LONG TERM...A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC
NW TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST....PUTTING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP
GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...THEN
DECREASE THIS EVENING. MOSTLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...
THEN TREND MORE TOWARDS MVFR THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY. INLAND
AREAS...MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AROUND
1500-2500 FT MAINLY AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR KPDX
THIS MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS IN THE 4000-6000
FT RANGE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW 2000 FT CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 17Z
THIS MORNING. /27

&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
A THIRD...POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL OF 1 TO 2 FEET AT
AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 6 FEET ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
MH/WRIGHT/SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.





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