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000
FXUS65 KPSR 310323
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WHICH SAW THE
HIGH AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACH 96...ONLY ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE...WE ARE SEEING A RATHER WARM EVENING AS
WELL...WITH SHY HARBOR STILL AT 90 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR...AS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DID
DEVELOP FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PUSHES
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SECOND...MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA...KEPT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS...FROM
EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO OUR CWA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND IMPORTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 310323
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WHICH SAW THE
HIGH AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACH 96...ONLY ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE...WE ARE SEEING A RATHER WARM EVENING AS
WELL...WITH SHY HARBOR STILL AT 90 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR...AS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DID
DEVELOP FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PUSHES
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SECOND...MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA...KEPT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS...FROM
EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO OUR CWA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND IMPORTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 310323
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WHICH SAW THE
HIGH AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACH 96...ONLY ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE...WE ARE SEEING A RATHER WARM EVENING AS
WELL...WITH SHY HARBOR STILL AT 90 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR...AS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DID
DEVELOP FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PUSHES
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SECOND...MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA...KEPT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS...FROM
EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO OUR CWA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND IMPORTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 310323
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WHICH SAW THE
HIGH AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACH 96...ONLY ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE...WE ARE SEEING A RATHER WARM EVENING AS
WELL...WITH SHY HARBOR STILL AT 90 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR...AS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DID
DEVELOP FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PUSHES
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SECOND...MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA...KEPT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS...FROM
EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO OUR CWA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND IMPORTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 302336 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 302336 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 302106
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
206 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS AOA 15KFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 301653
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
953 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH AN ELONGATED PLUME OF
MOISTURE STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND INTO
TEXAS. ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA...QUITE A BIT OF ALTO-CU HAS DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING BUT VIS SATELLITE SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO THIN OUT. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AS OF 1630Z.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA...AND PWATS AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SUBTLE MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LARGELY
UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...THERE IS AT LEAST A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP WELL EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH REGIONAL
WRF MODELS SUGGEST LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT EAST OF PHOENIX BUT IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...ANY SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS VS PRECIP
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL MAINTAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE DESERTS.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL VALUES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AROUND PHOENIX
AND INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP ACROSS
SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER INTO
THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z TUE...A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 20 THSD FT MSL.
LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF
AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING
TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 301653
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
953 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH AN ELONGATED PLUME OF
MOISTURE STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND INTO
TEXAS. ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA...QUITE A BIT OF ALTO-CU HAS DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING BUT VIS SATELLITE SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO THIN OUT. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AS OF 1630Z.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA...AND PWATS AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SUBTLE MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LARGELY
UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...THERE IS AT LEAST A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP WELL EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH REGIONAL
WRF MODELS SUGGEST LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT EAST OF PHOENIX BUT IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...ANY SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS VS PRECIP
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL MAINTAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE DESERTS.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL VALUES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AROUND PHOENIX
AND INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP ACROSS
SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER INTO
THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z TUE...A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 20 THSD FT MSL.
LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF
AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING
TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301653
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
953 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH AN ELONGATED PLUME OF
MOISTURE STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND INTO
TEXAS. ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA...QUITE A BIT OF ALTO-CU HAS DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING BUT VIS SATELLITE SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO THIN OUT. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AS OF 1630Z.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA...AND PWATS AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SUBTLE MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LARGELY
UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...THERE IS AT LEAST A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP WELL EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH REGIONAL
WRF MODELS SUGGEST LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT EAST OF PHOENIX BUT IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...ANY SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS VS PRECIP
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL MAINTAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE DESERTS.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL VALUES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AROUND PHOENIX
AND INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP ACROSS
SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER INTO
THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z TUE...A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 20 THSD FT MSL.
LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF
AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING
TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 301653
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
953 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH AN ELONGATED PLUME OF
MOISTURE STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND INTO
TEXAS. ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA...QUITE A BIT OF ALTO-CU HAS DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING BUT VIS SATELLITE SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO THIN OUT. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AS OF 1630Z.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA...AND PWATS AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SUBTLE MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LARGELY
UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...THERE IS AT LEAST A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP WELL EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH REGIONAL
WRF MODELS SUGGEST LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT EAST OF PHOENIX BUT IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...ANY SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS VS PRECIP
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL MAINTAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE DESERTS.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL VALUES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AROUND PHOENIX
AND INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP ACROSS
SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER INTO
THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z TUE...A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 20 THSD FT MSL.
LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF
AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING
TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301133
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE/LOW
FEATURES MOVING ACROSS/NEAR THE SOUTHWEST. COMPACT SHORTWAVE
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NV WILL TRANSITION TODAY INTO AN
AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ASSOCIATION WITH A CUT-OFF LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM
THE BAJA CUT-OFF...SENDING THICK OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
SONORA AND SE AZ THIS EARLY MORNING WITH MORE SCT TO BKN COVERAGE
ACROSS SE CA AND THE REST OF AZ. FAIRLY TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT NOTED ON
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY...WITH JUST OVER HALF INCH READINGS ALONG THE SE
AZ INTL BORDER AND NORTHERN SONORA AND MUCH DRIER READINGS MOSTLY
UNDER 0.20" ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT
MORNING LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH MOST LOCALES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY AM.

THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE GENERAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE BAJA CUT-OFF CONTINUES TO A SLOW
EASTWARD TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. EVEN WITH THE SLOW LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS...A
WARM START TODAY COURTESY OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SUBTLE WAA WILL
KEEP MANY ACROSS THE REGION ON RECORD WATCH AGAIN TODAY. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FURTHER DOWN IN THIS DISCUSSION FOR
THE SPECIFICS FORECAST/RECORD VALUES FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA.

GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP
ACROSS SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z TUE...A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 20 THSD FT MSL.
LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF
AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING
TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 301133
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE/LOW
FEATURES MOVING ACROSS/NEAR THE SOUTHWEST. COMPACT SHORTWAVE
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NV WILL TRANSITION TODAY INTO AN
AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ASSOCIATION WITH A CUT-OFF LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM
THE BAJA CUT-OFF...SENDING THICK OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
SONORA AND SE AZ THIS EARLY MORNING WITH MORE SCT TO BKN COVERAGE
ACROSS SE CA AND THE REST OF AZ. FAIRLY TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT NOTED ON
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY...WITH JUST OVER HALF INCH READINGS ALONG THE SE
AZ INTL BORDER AND NORTHERN SONORA AND MUCH DRIER READINGS MOSTLY
UNDER 0.20" ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT
MORNING LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH MOST LOCALES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY AM.

THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE GENERAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE BAJA CUT-OFF CONTINUES TO A SLOW
EASTWARD TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. EVEN WITH THE SLOW LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS...A
WARM START TODAY COURTESY OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SUBTLE WAA WILL
KEEP MANY ACROSS THE REGION ON RECORD WATCH AGAIN TODAY. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FURTHER DOWN IN THIS DISCUSSION FOR
THE SPECIFICS FORECAST/RECORD VALUES FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA.

GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP
ACROSS SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z TUE...A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 20 THSD FT MSL.
LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF
AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING
TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301133
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE/LOW
FEATURES MOVING ACROSS/NEAR THE SOUTHWEST. COMPACT SHORTWAVE
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NV WILL TRANSITION TODAY INTO AN
AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ASSOCIATION WITH A CUT-OFF LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM
THE BAJA CUT-OFF...SENDING THICK OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
SONORA AND SE AZ THIS EARLY MORNING WITH MORE SCT TO BKN COVERAGE
ACROSS SE CA AND THE REST OF AZ. FAIRLY TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT NOTED ON
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY...WITH JUST OVER HALF INCH READINGS ALONG THE SE
AZ INTL BORDER AND NORTHERN SONORA AND MUCH DRIER READINGS MOSTLY
UNDER 0.20" ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT
MORNING LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH MOST LOCALES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY AM.

THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE GENERAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE BAJA CUT-OFF CONTINUES TO A SLOW
EASTWARD TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. EVEN WITH THE SLOW LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS...A
WARM START TODAY COURTESY OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SUBTLE WAA WILL
KEEP MANY ACROSS THE REGION ON RECORD WATCH AGAIN TODAY. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FURTHER DOWN IN THIS DISCUSSION FOR
THE SPECIFICS FORECAST/RECORD VALUES FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA.

GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP
ACROSS SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z TUE...A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 20 THSD FT MSL.
LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF
AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING
TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 301133
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE/LOW
FEATURES MOVING ACROSS/NEAR THE SOUTHWEST. COMPACT SHORTWAVE
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NV WILL TRANSITION TODAY INTO AN
AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ASSOCIATION WITH A CUT-OFF LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM
THE BAJA CUT-OFF...SENDING THICK OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
SONORA AND SE AZ THIS EARLY MORNING WITH MORE SCT TO BKN COVERAGE
ACROSS SE CA AND THE REST OF AZ. FAIRLY TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT NOTED ON
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY...WITH JUST OVER HALF INCH READINGS ALONG THE SE
AZ INTL BORDER AND NORTHERN SONORA AND MUCH DRIER READINGS MOSTLY
UNDER 0.20" ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT
MORNING LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH MOST LOCALES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY AM.

THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE GENERAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE BAJA CUT-OFF CONTINUES TO A SLOW
EASTWARD TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. EVEN WITH THE SLOW LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS...A
WARM START TODAY COURTESY OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SUBTLE WAA WILL
KEEP MANY ACROSS THE REGION ON RECORD WATCH AGAIN TODAY. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FURTHER DOWN IN THIS DISCUSSION FOR
THE SPECIFICS FORECAST/RECORD VALUES FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA.

GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP
ACROSS SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z TUE...A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 20 THSD FT MSL.
LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF
AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING
TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301014
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
314 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE/LOW
FEATURES MOVING ACROSS/NEAR THE SOUTHWEST. COMPACT SHORTWAVE
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NV WILL TRANSITION TODAY INTO AN
AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ASSOCIATION WITH A CUT-OFF LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM
THE BAJA CUT-OFF...SENDING THICK OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
SONORA AND SE AZ THIS EARLY MORNING WITH MORE SCT TO BKN COVERAGE
ACROSS SE CA AND THE REST OF AZ. FAIRLY TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT NOTED ON
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY...WITH JUST OVER HALF INCH READINGS ALONG THE SE
AZ INTL BORDER AND NORTHERN SONORA AND MUCH DRIER READINGS MOSTLY
UNDER 0.20" ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT
MORNING LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH MOST LOCALES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY AM.

THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE GENERAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE BAJA CUT-OFF CONTINUES TO A SLOW
EASTWARD TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. EVEN WITH THE SLOW LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS...A
WARM START TODAY COURTESY OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SUBTLE WAA WILL
KEEP MANY ACROSS THE REGION ON RECORD WATCH AGAIN TODAY. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FURTHER DOWN IN THIS DISCUSSION FOR
THE SPECIFICS FORECAST/RECORD VALUES FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA.

GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP
ACROSS SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS AZ AND SE CA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD....KEEPING SCT TO BKN CIRRUS DECKS IN PLACE OVER ALL
OF THE TAF SITES...WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 20K FT. WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR THE MOST PART...FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S WILL DIP SOME LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING
BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...
THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 301014
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
314 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE/LOW
FEATURES MOVING ACROSS/NEAR THE SOUTHWEST. COMPACT SHORTWAVE
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NV WILL TRANSITION TODAY INTO AN
AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ASSOCIATION WITH A CUT-OFF LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM
THE BAJA CUT-OFF...SENDING THICK OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
SONORA AND SE AZ THIS EARLY MORNING WITH MORE SCT TO BKN COVERAGE
ACROSS SE CA AND THE REST OF AZ. FAIRLY TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT NOTED ON
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY...WITH JUST OVER HALF INCH READINGS ALONG THE SE
AZ INTL BORDER AND NORTHERN SONORA AND MUCH DRIER READINGS MOSTLY
UNDER 0.20" ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT
MORNING LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH MOST LOCALES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY AM.

THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE GENERAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE BAJA CUT-OFF CONTINUES TO A SLOW
EASTWARD TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. EVEN WITH THE SLOW LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS...A
WARM START TODAY COURTESY OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SUBTLE WAA WILL
KEEP MANY ACROSS THE REGION ON RECORD WATCH AGAIN TODAY. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FURTHER DOWN IN THIS DISCUSSION FOR
THE SPECIFICS FORECAST/RECORD VALUES FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA.

GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP
ACROSS SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS AZ AND SE CA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD....KEEPING SCT TO BKN CIRRUS DECKS IN PLACE OVER ALL
OF THE TAF SITES...WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 20K FT. WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR THE MOST PART...FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S WILL DIP SOME LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING
BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...
THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301014
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
314 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE/LOW
FEATURES MOVING ACROSS/NEAR THE SOUTHWEST. COMPACT SHORTWAVE
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NV WILL TRANSITION TODAY INTO AN
AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ASSOCIATION WITH A CUT-OFF LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM
THE BAJA CUT-OFF...SENDING THICK OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
SONORA AND SE AZ THIS EARLY MORNING WITH MORE SCT TO BKN COVERAGE
ACROSS SE CA AND THE REST OF AZ. FAIRLY TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT NOTED ON
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY...WITH JUST OVER HALF INCH READINGS ALONG THE SE
AZ INTL BORDER AND NORTHERN SONORA AND MUCH DRIER READINGS MOSTLY
UNDER 0.20" ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT
MORNING LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH MOST LOCALES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY AM.

THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE GENERAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE BAJA CUT-OFF CONTINUES TO A SLOW
EASTWARD TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. EVEN WITH THE SLOW LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS...A
WARM START TODAY COURTESY OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SUBTLE WAA WILL
KEEP MANY ACROSS THE REGION ON RECORD WATCH AGAIN TODAY. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FURTHER DOWN IN THIS DISCUSSION FOR
THE SPECIFICS FORECAST/RECORD VALUES FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA.

GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP
ACROSS SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS AZ AND SE CA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD....KEEPING SCT TO BKN CIRRUS DECKS IN PLACE OVER ALL
OF THE TAF SITES...WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 20K FT. WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR THE MOST PART...FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S WILL DIP SOME LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING
BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...
THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 300407
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
907 PM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS. YESTERDAY SKY HARBOR TIED THE RECORD HIGH WHILE
TODAY WE BROKE A NEW DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD...97 DEGREES
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD FROM 1971 OF 95 DEGREES. YUMA TOPPED OUT
AT 98...THOUGH NOT SETTING ANY NEW RECORD. WITH TODAY`S HIGH IN
PHOENIX...THIS MAKES 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 95 DEGREES OR MORE IN
PHOENIX...WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE EARLIEST THIS HAS HAPPENED
SINCE 1895. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS IT IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 158 PM MST 29 MAR 2015/...
UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY INTO
THE LOW-MID 90S AT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS. SO FAR... PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR HAS HIT A --HOT-- 97 DEGREES...AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
A DEGREE OR TWO MORE OF WARMING AS SUNSHINE CONTINUES TO MAKE IT
THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON THE WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. MODELS PORTRAY THE LOW TO REMAIN CUTOFF IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW...UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WELL
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER AND INTO NEW MEXICO
ON MONDAY...LEAVING MOST OF ARIZONA WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COULD DRIFT INTO FAR EAST PORTIONS OF GILA
COUNTY/OUR ZONE 24 MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT...AND
THAT WOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY STORMS THAT FORM. TEMPS
WILL BE SLOW TO COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
ALOFT REMAINING MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE
FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT THE
IMPACTS WILL BE WIND...AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...WITH A DISTINCT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOL
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30
----         --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004
YUMA         99 IN 1934

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS AZ AND SE CA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD....KEEPING SCT TO BKN CIRRUS DECKS IN PLACE OVER ALL
OF THE TAF SITES...WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 20K FT. WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR THE MOST PART...FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S WILL DIP SOME LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING
BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...
THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY/MEYERS
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 300407
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
907 PM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS. YESTERDAY SKY HARBOR TIED THE RECORD HIGH WHILE
TODAY WE BROKE A NEW DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD...97 DEGREES
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD FROM 1971 OF 95 DEGREES. YUMA TOPPED OUT
AT 98...THOUGH NOT SETTING ANY NEW RECORD. WITH TODAY`S HIGH IN
PHOENIX...THIS MAKES 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 95 DEGREES OR MORE IN
PHOENIX...WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE EARLIEST THIS HAS HAPPENED
SINCE 1895. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS IT IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 158 PM MST 29 MAR 2015/...
UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY INTO
THE LOW-MID 90S AT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS. SO FAR... PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR HAS HIT A --HOT-- 97 DEGREES...AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
A DEGREE OR TWO MORE OF WARMING AS SUNSHINE CONTINUES TO MAKE IT
THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON THE WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. MODELS PORTRAY THE LOW TO REMAIN CUTOFF IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW...UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WELL
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER AND INTO NEW MEXICO
ON MONDAY...LEAVING MOST OF ARIZONA WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COULD DRIFT INTO FAR EAST PORTIONS OF GILA
COUNTY/OUR ZONE 24 MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT...AND
THAT WOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY STORMS THAT FORM. TEMPS
WILL BE SLOW TO COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
ALOFT REMAINING MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE
FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT THE
IMPACTS WILL BE WIND...AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...WITH A DISTINCT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOL
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30
----         --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004
YUMA         99 IN 1934

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS AZ AND SE CA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD....KEEPING SCT TO BKN CIRRUS DECKS IN PLACE OVER ALL
OF THE TAF SITES...WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 20K FT. WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR THE MOST PART...FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S WILL DIP SOME LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING
BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...
THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY/MEYERS
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 292100
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
158 PM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
QUICKLY INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS. SO FAR...
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR HAS HIT A --HOT-- 97 DEGREES...AND THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR A DEGREE OR TWO MORE OF WARMING AS SUNSHINE CONTINUES
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON THE WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. MODELS PORTRAY THE LOW TO REMAIN CUTOFF IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW...UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WELL
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER AND INTO NEW MEXICO
ON MONDAY...LEAVING MOST OF ARIZONA WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COULD DRIFT INTO FAR EAST PORTIONS OF GILA
COUNTY/OUR ZONE 24 MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT...AND
THAT WOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY STORMS THAT FORM. TEMPS
WILL BE SLOW TO COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
ALOFT REMAINING MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE
FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT THE
IMPACTS WILL BE WIND...AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...WITH A DISTINCT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOL
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 29
----         --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1971
YUMA        100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS AZ AND SE CA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD....KEEPING SCT TO BKN CIRRUS DECKS IN PLACE OVER ALL
OF THE TAF SITES...WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 20K FT. WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR THE MOST PART...FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S WILL DIP SOME LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING
BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...
THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 292100
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
158 PM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
QUICKLY INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS. SO FAR...
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR HAS HIT A --HOT-- 97 DEGREES...AND THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR A DEGREE OR TWO MORE OF WARMING AS SUNSHINE CONTINUES
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON THE WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. MODELS PORTRAY THE LOW TO REMAIN CUTOFF IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW...UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WELL
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER AND INTO NEW MEXICO
ON MONDAY...LEAVING MOST OF ARIZONA WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COULD DRIFT INTO FAR EAST PORTIONS OF GILA
COUNTY/OUR ZONE 24 MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT...AND
THAT WOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY STORMS THAT FORM. TEMPS
WILL BE SLOW TO COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
ALOFT REMAINING MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE
FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT THE
IMPACTS WILL BE WIND...AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...WITH A DISTINCT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOL
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 29
----         --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1971
YUMA        100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS AZ AND SE CA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD....KEEPING SCT TO BKN CIRRUS DECKS IN PLACE OVER ALL
OF THE TAF SITES...WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 20K FT. WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR THE MOST PART...FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S WILL DIP SOME LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING
BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...
THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 291633
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
932 AM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES. SO...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC...WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA...IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON THE WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING. THE CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND MODELS PORTRAY THE LOW TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK
OF THE LOW IS SUCH THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND ASCENT FOR ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE KEPT WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA...EVENTUALLY IMPORTED INTO NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS
OF TEXAS.

SURFACE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...ON
AVERAGE RUNNING ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
AND DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER...WHILE THE CIRRUS COVER MAY BE QUITE THICK AND OPAQUE
TO LIMIT FULL INSOLATION...MIXING LAYER THERMAL PROFILES ARE STILL
QUITE WARM...SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN FACILITATE VERY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...IN THE LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE DESERTS AND APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS AT SOME SITES.
INHERITED FORECAST GRID ELEMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM CAPTURE THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. JET ENERGY AND ALL MEASURES OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE ONLY
PALTRY MIXING RATIOS AND TOTAL COLUMN PWATS REMAIN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CNTRL AND NRN ARIZONA. SREF PROBABILITIES DEPICT THE
BEST PICTURE WITH ONLY REAL NOTABLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PART OF THE
STATES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLOW TO COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ALOFT REMAINING MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...HOWEVER ONE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN LATER IN THE WEEK INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBER TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A MORE
DEFINED/SHARPER WAVE PROPAGATING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING
A MORE DISTINCT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POST FRONTAL PRESSURE
RISES. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALBEIT STILL IN THE ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY. THERE IS STILL NO INDICATION OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WITH THIS FRONT OR ANY OTHER WEATHER SYSTEM HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...SO DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 29
----         --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1971
YUMA        100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE THE
REGION TODAY...LASTING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AGAIN WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL DIP SOME BY LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MORE AROUND THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM
VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR
MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS
WINDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 291633
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
932 AM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES. SO...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC...WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA...IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON THE WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING. THE CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND MODELS PORTRAY THE LOW TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK
OF THE LOW IS SUCH THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND ASCENT FOR ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE KEPT WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA...EVENTUALLY IMPORTED INTO NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS
OF TEXAS.

SURFACE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...ON
AVERAGE RUNNING ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
AND DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER...WHILE THE CIRRUS COVER MAY BE QUITE THICK AND OPAQUE
TO LIMIT FULL INSOLATION...MIXING LAYER THERMAL PROFILES ARE STILL
QUITE WARM...SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN FACILITATE VERY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...IN THE LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE DESERTS AND APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS AT SOME SITES.
INHERITED FORECAST GRID ELEMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM CAPTURE THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. JET ENERGY AND ALL MEASURES OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE ONLY
PALTRY MIXING RATIOS AND TOTAL COLUMN PWATS REMAIN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CNTRL AND NRN ARIZONA. SREF PROBABILITIES DEPICT THE
BEST PICTURE WITH ONLY REAL NOTABLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PART OF THE
STATES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLOW TO COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ALOFT REMAINING MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...HOWEVER ONE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN LATER IN THE WEEK INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBER TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A MORE
DEFINED/SHARPER WAVE PROPAGATING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING
A MORE DISTINCT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POST FRONTAL PRESSURE
RISES. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALBEIT STILL IN THE ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY. THERE IS STILL NO INDICATION OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WITH THIS FRONT OR ANY OTHER WEATHER SYSTEM HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...SO DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 29
----         --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1971
YUMA        100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE THE
REGION TODAY...LASTING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AGAIN WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL DIP SOME BY LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MORE AROUND THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM
VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR
MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS
WINDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 291200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. A SERIES
OF STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN
THE WEEK...FINALLY ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO FILTER SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT YET WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALY SPINNING NEAR 27N 127W WAS
EFFECTIVELY ENTRAINING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO INCREASING
CYCLONIC FLOW DIRECTED TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM HAS PARTIALLY DAMPENED RIDGING ALOFT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH 00Z SOUNDING DATA INDICATING SUBTLE MID
TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS. THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY HAS SHOWN A DEFINITIVE
EQUATORWARD BIAS SUCH THAT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE
FLUX...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH INTO FAR SERN
ARIZONA AND SONORA. THUS...WHILE CIRRUS COVER MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT
ON FULL INSOLATION AND NEAR SFC LAPSE RATES...MIXING LAYER THERMAL
PROFILES APPEAR SIMILAR TO SATURDAY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN LOCALLY APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. JET ENERGY AND ALL MEASURES OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE ONLY
PALTRY MIXING RATIOS AND TOTAL COLUMN PWATS REMAIN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CNTRL AND NRN ARIZONA. SREF PROBABILITIES DEPICT THE
BEST PICTURE WITH ONLY REAL NOTABLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PART OF THE
STATES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLOW TO COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ALOFT REMAINING MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...HOWEVER ONE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN LATER IN THE WEEK INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBER TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A MORE
DEFINED/SHARPER WAVE PROPAGATING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING
A MORE DISTINCT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POST FRONTAL PRESSURE
RISES. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALBEIT STILL IN THE ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY. THERE IS STILL NO INDICATION OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WITH THIS FRONT OR ANY OTHER WEATHER SYSTEM HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...SO DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 29
----         --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1971
YUMA        100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE THE
REGION TODAY...LASTING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AGAIN WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL DIP SOME BY LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MORE AROUND THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM
VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR
MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS
WINDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 291200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. A SERIES
OF STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN
THE WEEK...FINALLY ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO FILTER SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT YET WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALY SPINNING NEAR 27N 127W WAS
EFFECTIVELY ENTRAINING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO INCREASING
CYCLONIC FLOW DIRECTED TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM HAS PARTIALLY DAMPENED RIDGING ALOFT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH 00Z SOUNDING DATA INDICATING SUBTLE MID
TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS. THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY HAS SHOWN A DEFINITIVE
EQUATORWARD BIAS SUCH THAT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE
FLUX...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH INTO FAR SERN
ARIZONA AND SONORA. THUS...WHILE CIRRUS COVER MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT
ON FULL INSOLATION AND NEAR SFC LAPSE RATES...MIXING LAYER THERMAL
PROFILES APPEAR SIMILAR TO SATURDAY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN LOCALLY APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. JET ENERGY AND ALL MEASURES OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE ONLY
PALTRY MIXING RATIOS AND TOTAL COLUMN PWATS REMAIN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CNTRL AND NRN ARIZONA. SREF PROBABILITIES DEPICT THE
BEST PICTURE WITH ONLY REAL NOTABLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PART OF THE
STATES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLOW TO COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ALOFT REMAINING MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...HOWEVER ONE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN LATER IN THE WEEK INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBER TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A MORE
DEFINED/SHARPER WAVE PROPAGATING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING
A MORE DISTINCT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POST FRONTAL PRESSURE
RISES. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALBEIT STILL IN THE ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY. THERE IS STILL NO INDICATION OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WITH THIS FRONT OR ANY OTHER WEATHER SYSTEM HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...SO DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 29
----         --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1971
YUMA        100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE THE
REGION TODAY...LASTING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AGAIN WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL DIP SOME BY LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MORE AROUND THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM
VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR
MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS
WINDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 291200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. A SERIES
OF STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN
THE WEEK...FINALLY ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO FILTER SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT YET WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALY SPINNING NEAR 27N 127W WAS
EFFECTIVELY ENTRAINING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO INCREASING
CYCLONIC FLOW DIRECTED TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM HAS PARTIALLY DAMPENED RIDGING ALOFT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH 00Z SOUNDING DATA INDICATING SUBTLE MID
TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS. THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY HAS SHOWN A DEFINITIVE
EQUATORWARD BIAS SUCH THAT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE
FLUX...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH INTO FAR SERN
ARIZONA AND SONORA. THUS...WHILE CIRRUS COVER MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT
ON FULL INSOLATION AND NEAR SFC LAPSE RATES...MIXING LAYER THERMAL
PROFILES APPEAR SIMILAR TO SATURDAY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN LOCALLY APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. JET ENERGY AND ALL MEASURES OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE ONLY
PALTRY MIXING RATIOS AND TOTAL COLUMN PWATS REMAIN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CNTRL AND NRN ARIZONA. SREF PROBABILITIES DEPICT THE
BEST PICTURE WITH ONLY REAL NOTABLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PART OF THE
STATES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLOW TO COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ALOFT REMAINING MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...HOWEVER ONE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN LATER IN THE WEEK INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBER TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A MORE
DEFINED/SHARPER WAVE PROPAGATING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING
A MORE DISTINCT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POST FRONTAL PRESSURE
RISES. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALBEIT STILL IN THE ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY. THERE IS STILL NO INDICATION OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WITH THIS FRONT OR ANY OTHER WEATHER SYSTEM HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...SO DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 29
----         --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1971
YUMA        100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE THE
REGION TODAY...LASTING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AGAIN WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL DIP SOME BY LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MORE AROUND THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM
VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR
MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS
WINDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 291200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. A SERIES
OF STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN
THE WEEK...FINALLY ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO FILTER SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT YET WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALY SPINNING NEAR 27N 127W WAS
EFFECTIVELY ENTRAINING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO INCREASING
CYCLONIC FLOW DIRECTED TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM HAS PARTIALLY DAMPENED RIDGING ALOFT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH 00Z SOUNDING DATA INDICATING SUBTLE MID
TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS. THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY HAS SHOWN A DEFINITIVE
EQUATORWARD BIAS SUCH THAT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE
FLUX...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH INTO FAR SERN
ARIZONA AND SONORA. THUS...WHILE CIRRUS COVER MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT
ON FULL INSOLATION AND NEAR SFC LAPSE RATES...MIXING LAYER THERMAL
PROFILES APPEAR SIMILAR TO SATURDAY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN LOCALLY APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. JET ENERGY AND ALL MEASURES OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE ONLY
PALTRY MIXING RATIOS AND TOTAL COLUMN PWATS REMAIN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CNTRL AND NRN ARIZONA. SREF PROBABILITIES DEPICT THE
BEST PICTURE WITH ONLY REAL NOTABLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PART OF THE
STATES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLOW TO COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ALOFT REMAINING MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...HOWEVER ONE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN LATER IN THE WEEK INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBER TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A MORE
DEFINED/SHARPER WAVE PROPAGATING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING
A MORE DISTINCT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POST FRONTAL PRESSURE
RISES. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALBEIT STILL IN THE ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY. THERE IS STILL NO INDICATION OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WITH THIS FRONT OR ANY OTHER WEATHER SYSTEM HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...SO DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 29
----         --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1971
YUMA        100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE THE
REGION TODAY...LASTING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AGAIN WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL DIP SOME BY LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MORE AROUND THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM
VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR
MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS
WINDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 290901
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 AM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. A SERIES
OF STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN
THE WEEK...FINALLY ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO FILTER SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT YET WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALY SPINNING NEAR 27N 127W WAS
EFFECTIVELY ENTRAINING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO INCREASING
CYCLONIC FLOW DIRECTED TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM HAS PARTIALLY DAMPENED RIDGING ALOFT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH 00Z SOUNDING DATA INDICATING SUBTLE MID
TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS. THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY HAS SHOWN A DEFINITIVE
EQUATORWARD BIAS SUCH THAT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE
FLUX...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH INTO FAR SERN
ARIZONA AND SONORA. THUS...WHILE CIRRUS COVER MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT
ON FULL INSOLATION AND NEAR SFC LAPSE RATES...MIXING LAYER THERMAL
PROFILES APPEAR SIMILAR TO SATURDAY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN LOCALLY APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. JET ENERGY AND ALL MEASURES OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE ONLY
PALTRY MIXING RATIOS AND TOTAL COLUMN PWATS REMAIN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CNTRL AND NRN ARIZONA. SREF PROBABILITIES DEPICT THE
BEST PICTURE WITH ONLY REAL NOTABLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PART OF THE
STATES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLOW TO COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ALOFT REMAINING MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...HOWEVER ONE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN LATER IN THE WEEK INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBER TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A MORE
DEFINED/SHARPER WAVE PROPAGATING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING
A MORE DISTINCT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POST FRONTAL PRESSURE
RISES. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALBEIT STILL IN THE ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY. THERE IS STILL NO INDICATION OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WITH THIS FRONT OR ANY OTHER WEATHER SYSTEM HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...SO DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 29
----         --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1971
YUMA        100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FEW-SCT CIRRUS LAYERS...MAINLY AOA 25K FT ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR
THE MOST PART...CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 290408
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
910 PM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED TODAY IN PHOENIX AT 95 DEGREES
AND BROKEN IN YUMA AT 98 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 97 DEGREES
IN YUMA DATED ALL THE WAY BACK TO 1893. WARM RETURN FLOW IS
PREVALENT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING BETWEEN A RIDGE
ACROSS MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE REGION WHICH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SKY
COVER...HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST PRODUCING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH. AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA GENERALLY RUNNING 1-3 DEG WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO A FEW SPOTS
RUNNING A BIT HIGHER. THIS PUTS US AT OR NEAR RECORD FOR THE DATE AT
VARIOUS SPOTS INCLUDING PHOENIX AND YUMA. THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND SOUTH TRY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE A LITTLE BIT. THE
FEATURE THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED WELL WEST OF ENSENADA MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES. IT WILL HELP SEND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL PUT ONLY A
SLIGHT DENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. CONVERSELY...SUNDAY MORNING
LOW TEMPS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO REDUCED RADIATIVE COOLING.
MIDTROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LAG BEHIND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS MORE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE
MOISTURE THAN THE GFS AND THIS IS DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO DEPICTING
A STRONGER LOW THAN THE GFS. HELD ON TO VERY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
EASTERNMOST GILA COUNTY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY ELSEWHERE. ON
TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. ANTICIPATE MORE NOTICEABLE AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE TREND WILL BE VERY
SLOWLY DOWNWARD BUT STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM TO TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BRUNT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES...BRUSHING ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
BREEZINESS ALONG WITH MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING DRY FOR OUR
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FEW-SCT CIRRUS LAYERS...MAINLY AOA 25K FT ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR
THE MOST PART...CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 282151
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST PRODUCING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH. AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA GENERALLY RUNNING 1-3 DEG WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO A FEW SPOTS
RUNNING A BIT HIGHER. THIS PUTS US AT OR NEAR RECORD FOR THE DATE AT
VARIOUS SPOTS INCLUDING PHOENIX AND YUMA. THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND SOUTH TRY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE A LITTLE BIT. THE
FEATURE THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED WELL WEST OF ENSENADA MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES. IT WILL HELP SEND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL PUT ONLY A
SLIGHT DENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. CONVERSELY...SUNDAY MORNING
LOW TEMPS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO REDUCED RADIATIVE COOLING.
MIDTROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LAG BEHIND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS MORE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE
MOISTURE THAN THE GFS AND THIS IS DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO DEPICTING
A STRONGER LOW THAN THE GFS. HELD ON TO VERY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER EASTERNMOST GILA COUNTY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY ELSEWHERE.
ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. ANTICIPATE MORE
NOTICEABLE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE
TREND WILL BE VERY SLOWLY DOWNWARD BUT STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM TO TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BRUNT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES...BRUSHING ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
BREEZINESS ALONG WITH MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING DRY FOR OUR
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FEW-SCT CIRRUS LAYERS...MAINLY AOA 25K FT ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR
THE MOST PART...CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 282151
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST PRODUCING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH. AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA GENERALLY RUNNING 1-3 DEG WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO A FEW SPOTS
RUNNING A BIT HIGHER. THIS PUTS US AT OR NEAR RECORD FOR THE DATE AT
VARIOUS SPOTS INCLUDING PHOENIX AND YUMA. THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND SOUTH TRY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE A LITTLE BIT. THE
FEATURE THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED WELL WEST OF ENSENADA MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES. IT WILL HELP SEND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL PUT ONLY A
SLIGHT DENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. CONVERSELY...SUNDAY MORNING
LOW TEMPS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO REDUCED RADIATIVE COOLING.
MIDTROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LAG BEHIND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS MORE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE
MOISTURE THAN THE GFS AND THIS IS DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO DEPICTING
A STRONGER LOW THAN THE GFS. HELD ON TO VERY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER EASTERNMOST GILA COUNTY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY ELSEWHERE.
ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. ANTICIPATE MORE
NOTICEABLE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE
TREND WILL BE VERY SLOWLY DOWNWARD BUT STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM TO TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BRUNT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES...BRUSHING ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
BREEZINESS ALONG WITH MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING DRY FOR OUR
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FEW-SCT CIRRUS LAYERS...MAINLY AOA 25K FT ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR
THE MOST PART...CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 282151
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST PRODUCING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH. AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA GENERALLY RUNNING 1-3 DEG WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO A FEW SPOTS
RUNNING A BIT HIGHER. THIS PUTS US AT OR NEAR RECORD FOR THE DATE AT
VARIOUS SPOTS INCLUDING PHOENIX AND YUMA. THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND SOUTH TRY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE A LITTLE BIT. THE
FEATURE THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED WELL WEST OF ENSENADA MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES. IT WILL HELP SEND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL PUT ONLY A
SLIGHT DENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. CONVERSELY...SUNDAY MORNING
LOW TEMPS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO REDUCED RADIATIVE COOLING.
MIDTROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LAG BEHIND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS MORE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE
MOISTURE THAN THE GFS AND THIS IS DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO DEPICTING
A STRONGER LOW THAN THE GFS. HELD ON TO VERY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER EASTERNMOST GILA COUNTY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY ELSEWHERE.
ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. ANTICIPATE MORE
NOTICEABLE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE
TREND WILL BE VERY SLOWLY DOWNWARD BUT STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM TO TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BRUNT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES...BRUSHING ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
BREEZINESS ALONG WITH MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING DRY FOR OUR
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FEW-SCT CIRRUS LAYERS...MAINLY AOA 25K FT ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR
THE MOST PART...CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 282151
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST PRODUCING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH. AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA GENERALLY RUNNING 1-3 DEG WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO A FEW SPOTS
RUNNING A BIT HIGHER. THIS PUTS US AT OR NEAR RECORD FOR THE DATE AT
VARIOUS SPOTS INCLUDING PHOENIX AND YUMA. THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND SOUTH TRY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE A LITTLE BIT. THE
FEATURE THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED WELL WEST OF ENSENADA MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES. IT WILL HELP SEND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL PUT ONLY A
SLIGHT DENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. CONVERSELY...SUNDAY MORNING
LOW TEMPS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO REDUCED RADIATIVE COOLING.
MIDTROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LAG BEHIND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS MORE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE
MOISTURE THAN THE GFS AND THIS IS DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO DEPICTING
A STRONGER LOW THAN THE GFS. HELD ON TO VERY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER EASTERNMOST GILA COUNTY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY ELSEWHERE.
ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. ANTICIPATE MORE
NOTICEABLE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE
TREND WILL BE VERY SLOWLY DOWNWARD BUT STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM TO TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BRUNT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES...BRUSHING ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
BREEZINESS ALONG WITH MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING DRY FOR OUR
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FEW-SCT CIRRUS LAYERS...MAINLY AOA 25K FT ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR
THE MOST PART...CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 281700
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR
FORECAST AREA LOOK QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ONES FROM 24 HOURS EARLIER.
MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE
GENERALLY AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN A WARMER START
AT MOST PLACES...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO WARMING TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO FORECAST HIGHS TO REFLECT
THAT. THUS ANTICIPATE NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE AT SKY HARBOR.
CONVERSELY...NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SOME SPOTS IN
OUR WESTERN AREAS INCLUDING YUMA...STILL AT OR VERY CLOSE TO RECORD.
ANTICIPATE TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS WEAKENED AND THERE WILL BE MORE CIRRUS AROUND.
HOWEVER...COOLING TREND WILL BE QUITE GRADUAL WITH ONLY SUBTLE DAY
TO DAY CHANGES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 200 AM MST/PDT...

THE WELL ADVERTISED MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTI-CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR SRN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA
MEASURING CENTRAL H5 HEIGHTS AT 585DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
+24C. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND UNUSUALLY HIGH MIXING DEPTHS...THICKNESS
MEASURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND (1000-850MB
VALUES EXCEEDING 143DM) YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
(SOME LOCATIONS AROUND YUMA LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 100 DEGREE
THRESHOLD). OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DAILY RECORDS
WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME SUBTLE
COOLING NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY NEAR 28N 132W IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LARGER WAVE BREAKING INTO THE APEX OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS WILL
DAMPEN/DISPLACE THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. MODEL
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THROUGH SONORA MONDAY...AND ONLY MODEST FLUX OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS
MORE MEAGER MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT SUCH THAT FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS
NOW ONLY SUGGEST BARELY OVER 3 G/KG OF WELL MIXED MOISTURE
PROFILES...AND SATURATION ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO HEIGHTS
ABOVE 15K FT.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEST TYPIFIED BY A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE PATTERN MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 572DM AND 578DM THROUGH THE PERIOD ONLY MODULATED
BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. THE PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE MAY FOSTER AN INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT YIELDING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL (THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
REMAINING THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION WITH WELL ORGANIZED FROPA THE END
OF NEXT WEEK). REGARDLESS...DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CLOSE TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE
MOST PART FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IS LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 281700
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR
FORECAST AREA LOOK QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ONES FROM 24 HOURS EARLIER.
MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE
GENERALLY AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN A WARMER START
AT MOST PLACES...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO WARMING TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO FORECAST HIGHS TO REFLECT
THAT. THUS ANTICIPATE NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE AT SKY HARBOR.
CONVERSELY...NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SOME SPOTS IN
OUR WESTERN AREAS INCLUDING YUMA...STILL AT OR VERY CLOSE TO RECORD.
ANTICIPATE TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS WEAKENED AND THERE WILL BE MORE CIRRUS AROUND.
HOWEVER...COOLING TREND WILL BE QUITE GRADUAL WITH ONLY SUBTLE DAY
TO DAY CHANGES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 200 AM MST/PDT...

THE WELL ADVERTISED MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTI-CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR SRN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA
MEASURING CENTRAL H5 HEIGHTS AT 585DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
+24C. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND UNUSUALLY HIGH MIXING DEPTHS...THICKNESS
MEASURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND (1000-850MB
VALUES EXCEEDING 143DM) YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
(SOME LOCATIONS AROUND YUMA LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 100 DEGREE
THRESHOLD). OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DAILY RECORDS
WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME SUBTLE
COOLING NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY NEAR 28N 132W IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LARGER WAVE BREAKING INTO THE APEX OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS WILL
DAMPEN/DISPLACE THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. MODEL
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THROUGH SONORA MONDAY...AND ONLY MODEST FLUX OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS
MORE MEAGER MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT SUCH THAT FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS
NOW ONLY SUGGEST BARELY OVER 3 G/KG OF WELL MIXED MOISTURE
PROFILES...AND SATURATION ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO HEIGHTS
ABOVE 15K FT.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEST TYPIFIED BY A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE PATTERN MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 572DM AND 578DM THROUGH THE PERIOD ONLY MODULATED
BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. THE PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE MAY FOSTER AN INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT YIELDING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL (THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
REMAINING THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION WITH WELL ORGANIZED FROPA THE END
OF NEXT WEEK). REGARDLESS...DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CLOSE TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE
MOST PART FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IS LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 281700
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR
FORECAST AREA LOOK QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ONES FROM 24 HOURS EARLIER.
MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE
GENERALLY AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN A WARMER START
AT MOST PLACES...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO WARMING TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO FORECAST HIGHS TO REFLECT
THAT. THUS ANTICIPATE NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE AT SKY HARBOR.
CONVERSELY...NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SOME SPOTS IN
OUR WESTERN AREAS INCLUDING YUMA...STILL AT OR VERY CLOSE TO RECORD.
ANTICIPATE TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS WEAKENED AND THERE WILL BE MORE CIRRUS AROUND.
HOWEVER...COOLING TREND WILL BE QUITE GRADUAL WITH ONLY SUBTLE DAY
TO DAY CHANGES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 200 AM MST/PDT...

THE WELL ADVERTISED MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTI-CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR SRN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA
MEASURING CENTRAL H5 HEIGHTS AT 585DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
+24C. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND UNUSUALLY HIGH MIXING DEPTHS...THICKNESS
MEASURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND (1000-850MB
VALUES EXCEEDING 143DM) YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
(SOME LOCATIONS AROUND YUMA LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 100 DEGREE
THRESHOLD). OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DAILY RECORDS
WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME SUBTLE
COOLING NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY NEAR 28N 132W IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LARGER WAVE BREAKING INTO THE APEX OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS WILL
DAMPEN/DISPLACE THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. MODEL
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THROUGH SONORA MONDAY...AND ONLY MODEST FLUX OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS
MORE MEAGER MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT SUCH THAT FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS
NOW ONLY SUGGEST BARELY OVER 3 G/KG OF WELL MIXED MOISTURE
PROFILES...AND SATURATION ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO HEIGHTS
ABOVE 15K FT.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEST TYPIFIED BY A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE PATTERN MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 572DM AND 578DM THROUGH THE PERIOD ONLY MODULATED
BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. THE PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE MAY FOSTER AN INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT YIELDING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL (THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
REMAINING THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION WITH WELL ORGANIZED FROPA THE END
OF NEXT WEEK). REGARDLESS...DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CLOSE TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE
MOST PART FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IS LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 281700
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR
FORECAST AREA LOOK QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ONES FROM 24 HOURS EARLIER.
MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE
GENERALLY AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN A WARMER START
AT MOST PLACES...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO WARMING TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO FORECAST HIGHS TO REFLECT
THAT. THUS ANTICIPATE NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE AT SKY HARBOR.
CONVERSELY...NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SOME SPOTS IN
OUR WESTERN AREAS INCLUDING YUMA...STILL AT OR VERY CLOSE TO RECORD.
ANTICIPATE TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS WEAKENED AND THERE WILL BE MORE CIRRUS AROUND.
HOWEVER...COOLING TREND WILL BE QUITE GRADUAL WITH ONLY SUBTLE DAY
TO DAY CHANGES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 200 AM MST/PDT...

THE WELL ADVERTISED MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTI-CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR SRN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA
MEASURING CENTRAL H5 HEIGHTS AT 585DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
+24C. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND UNUSUALLY HIGH MIXING DEPTHS...THICKNESS
MEASURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND (1000-850MB
VALUES EXCEEDING 143DM) YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
(SOME LOCATIONS AROUND YUMA LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 100 DEGREE
THRESHOLD). OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DAILY RECORDS
WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME SUBTLE
COOLING NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY NEAR 28N 132W IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LARGER WAVE BREAKING INTO THE APEX OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS WILL
DAMPEN/DISPLACE THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. MODEL
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THROUGH SONORA MONDAY...AND ONLY MODEST FLUX OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS
MORE MEAGER MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT SUCH THAT FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS
NOW ONLY SUGGEST BARELY OVER 3 G/KG OF WELL MIXED MOISTURE
PROFILES...AND SATURATION ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO HEIGHTS
ABOVE 15K FT.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEST TYPIFIED BY A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE PATTERN MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 572DM AND 578DM THROUGH THE PERIOD ONLY MODULATED
BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. THE PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE MAY FOSTER AN INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT YIELDING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL (THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
REMAINING THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION WITH WELL ORGANIZED FROPA THE END
OF NEXT WEEK). REGARDLESS...DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CLOSE TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE
MOST PART FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IS LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 281200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WELL ADVERTISED MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTI-CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR SRN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA
MEASURING CENTRAL H5 HEIGHTS AT 585DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
+24C. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND UNUSUALLY HIGH MIXING DEPTHS...THICKNESS
MEASURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND (1000-850MB
VALUES EXCEEDING 143DM) YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
(SOME LOCATIONS AROUND YUMA LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 100 DEGREE
THRESHOLD). OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DAILY RECORDS
WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME SUBTLE
COOLING NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY NEAR 28N 132W IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LARGER WAVE BREAKING INTO THE APEX OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS WILL
DAMPEN/DISPLACE THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. MODEL
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THROUGH SONORA MONDAY...AND ONLY MODEST FLUX OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS
MORE MEAGER MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT SUCH THAT FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS
NOW ONLY SUGGEST BARELY OVER 3 G/KG OF WELL MIXED MOISTURE
PROFILES...AND SATURATION ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO HEIGHTS
ABOVE 15K FT.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEST TYPIFIED BY A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE PATTERN MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 572DM AND 578DM THROUGH THE PERIOD ONLY MODULATED
BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. THE PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE MAY FOSTER AN INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT YIELDING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL (THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
REMAINING THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION WITH WELL ORGANIZED FROPA THE END
OF NEXT WEEK). REGARDLESS...DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CLOSE TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE
MOST PART FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IS LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 281200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WELL ADVERTISED MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTI-CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR SRN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA
MEASURING CENTRAL H5 HEIGHTS AT 585DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
+24C. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND UNUSUALLY HIGH MIXING DEPTHS...THICKNESS
MEASURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND (1000-850MB
VALUES EXCEEDING 143DM) YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
(SOME LOCATIONS AROUND YUMA LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 100 DEGREE
THRESHOLD). OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DAILY RECORDS
WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME SUBTLE
COOLING NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY NEAR 28N 132W IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LARGER WAVE BREAKING INTO THE APEX OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS WILL
DAMPEN/DISPLACE THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. MODEL
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THROUGH SONORA MONDAY...AND ONLY MODEST FLUX OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS
MORE MEAGER MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT SUCH THAT FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS
NOW ONLY SUGGEST BARELY OVER 3 G/KG OF WELL MIXED MOISTURE
PROFILES...AND SATURATION ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO HEIGHTS
ABOVE 15K FT.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEST TYPIFIED BY A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE PATTERN MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 572DM AND 578DM THROUGH THE PERIOD ONLY MODULATED
BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. THE PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE MAY FOSTER AN INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT YIELDING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL (THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
REMAINING THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION WITH WELL ORGANIZED FROPA THE END
OF NEXT WEEK). REGARDLESS...DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CLOSE TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE
MOST PART FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IS LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 281200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WELL ADVERTISED MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTI-CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR SRN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA
MEASURING CENTRAL H5 HEIGHTS AT 585DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
+24C. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND UNUSUALLY HIGH MIXING DEPTHS...THICKNESS
MEASURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND (1000-850MB
VALUES EXCEEDING 143DM) YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
(SOME LOCATIONS AROUND YUMA LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 100 DEGREE
THRESHOLD). OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DAILY RECORDS
WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME SUBTLE
COOLING NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY NEAR 28N 132W IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LARGER WAVE BREAKING INTO THE APEX OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS WILL
DAMPEN/DISPLACE THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. MODEL
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THROUGH SONORA MONDAY...AND ONLY MODEST FLUX OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS
MORE MEAGER MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT SUCH THAT FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS
NOW ONLY SUGGEST BARELY OVER 3 G/KG OF WELL MIXED MOISTURE
PROFILES...AND SATURATION ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO HEIGHTS
ABOVE 15K FT.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEST TYPIFIED BY A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE PATTERN MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 572DM AND 578DM THROUGH THE PERIOD ONLY MODULATED
BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. THE PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE MAY FOSTER AN INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT YIELDING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL (THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
REMAINING THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION WITH WELL ORGANIZED FROPA THE END
OF NEXT WEEK). REGARDLESS...DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CLOSE TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE
MOST PART FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IS LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 281200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WELL ADVERTISED MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTI-CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR SRN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA
MEASURING CENTRAL H5 HEIGHTS AT 585DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
+24C. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND UNUSUALLY HIGH MIXING DEPTHS...THICKNESS
MEASURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND (1000-850MB
VALUES EXCEEDING 143DM) YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
(SOME LOCATIONS AROUND YUMA LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 100 DEGREE
THRESHOLD). OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DAILY RECORDS
WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME SUBTLE
COOLING NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY NEAR 28N 132W IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LARGER WAVE BREAKING INTO THE APEX OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS WILL
DAMPEN/DISPLACE THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. MODEL
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THROUGH SONORA MONDAY...AND ONLY MODEST FLUX OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS
MORE MEAGER MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT SUCH THAT FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS
NOW ONLY SUGGEST BARELY OVER 3 G/KG OF WELL MIXED MOISTURE
PROFILES...AND SATURATION ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO HEIGHTS
ABOVE 15K FT.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEST TYPIFIED BY A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE PATTERN MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 572DM AND 578DM THROUGH THE PERIOD ONLY MODULATED
BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. THE PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE MAY FOSTER AN INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT YIELDING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL (THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
REMAINING THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION WITH WELL ORGANIZED FROPA THE END
OF NEXT WEEK). REGARDLESS...DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CLOSE TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE
MOST PART FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IS LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




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