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000
FXUS65 KPSR 010319
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES FAR TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL THEN LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OFF AND ON BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEAK FOR
A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THIS
EVENING...WITH AZ ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY AND UNDER DRY WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SERN CA AND
AZ. SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING WERE RATHER LOW AND GENLY RANGED
FROM THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. FORECASTS
IN FINE SHAPE AND NO UPDATES NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RAOB TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
WARMING FURTHER WEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REFLECT THIS PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR EASTERN
AREAS AND 5-10 DEG OF WARMING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND AROUND 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...THIS LEADS TO A NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
IN TURN THERE WILL OFF AND ON BREEZINESS...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AS WELL WHICH LEADS TO A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WILL FAVOR
NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES BUT OFTEN WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ













000
FXUS65 KPSR 010319
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES FAR TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL THEN LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OFF AND ON BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEAK FOR
A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THIS
EVENING...WITH AZ ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY AND UNDER DRY WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SERN CA AND
AZ. SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING WERE RATHER LOW AND GENLY RANGED
FROM THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. FORECASTS
IN FINE SHAPE AND NO UPDATES NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RAOB TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
WARMING FURTHER WEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REFLECT THIS PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR EASTERN
AREAS AND 5-10 DEG OF WARMING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND AROUND 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...THIS LEADS TO A NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
IN TURN THERE WILL OFF AND ON BREEZINESS...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AS WELL WHICH LEADS TO A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WILL FAVOR
NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES BUT OFTEN WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ














000
FXUS65 KPSR 302104
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES FAR TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL THEN LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OFF AND ON BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEAK FOR
A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RAOB TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
WARMING FURTHER WEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REFLECT THIS PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR EASTERN
AREAS AND 5-10 DEG OF WARMING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND AROUND 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...THIS LEADS TO A NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
IN TURN THERE WILL OFF AND ON BREEZINESS...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AS WELL WHICH LEADS TO A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ










000
FXUS65 KPSR 302104
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES FAR TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL THEN LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OFF AND ON BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEAK FOR
A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RAOB TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
WARMING FURTHER WEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REFLECT THIS PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR EASTERN
AREAS AND 5-10 DEG OF WARMING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND AROUND 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...THIS LEADS TO A NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
IN TURN THERE WILL OFF AND ON BREEZINESS...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AS WELL WHICH LEADS TO A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ











000
FXUS65 KPSR 301625
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEATHER SYSTEM WE HAD THIS PAST
WEEKEND NOW MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. WEST OF THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. FURTHER WEST...THERE IS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS LEAVES DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. RAOB TRENDS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS SHOW VERY LITTLE WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT TWC WITH
INCREASING WARMING FURTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT NKX. FORECAST HIGHS
FOR TODAY REFLECT THIS THOUGH SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE. THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 307 AM...
LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES NOW IS CIRCULATING INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND MUCH OF
AZ...SAVE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS DECKS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER NEAR PAGE. GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH LOW 60S TO LOW 70S OBSERVED AT
MOST SITES. WHILE THE BROADER DEWPOINT TREND HAS BEEN DRIER THROUGH
THIS EARLY WEEK...OBSERVED VALUES HAVE WIDELY VARIED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL
HOLD SOME MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T
BEEN TOO WARM TO HELP EVAPORATE THIS MOISTURE AWAY. WHERE THE
MORNINGS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES... AFTERNOON MIXING FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD DROP READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER SWIFT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN AZ...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FILTERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM. NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH LOWERED
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX...NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEING JUST OUT OF RANGE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

PACIFIC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN LOOK TO PEAK
ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS IN THE 100-105F RANGE AND
94-99F FOR THE LOWER AZ DESERTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRANSITION TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS BROAD
TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
TROUGHING/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES IN ALONG 30N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS AN AREA WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO PROGGED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT 90 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NEXT NAME ON
THE CYCLONE LIST IS SIMON...AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...STORM PATH OR STORM
EVOLUTION...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD TRANSPORT SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE FIELDS THAT
WORK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL SCALE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS AND POSSIBLY COOLER IF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
MAKE SOME SORT OF A COMEBACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO








000
FXUS65 KPSR 301625
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEATHER SYSTEM WE HAD THIS PAST
WEEKEND NOW MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. WEST OF THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. FURTHER WEST...THERE IS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS LEAVES DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. RAOB TRENDS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS SHOW VERY LITTLE WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT TWC WITH
INCREASING WARMING FURTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT NKX. FORECAST HIGHS
FOR TODAY REFLECT THIS THOUGH SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE. THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 307 AM...
LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES NOW IS CIRCULATING INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND MUCH OF
AZ...SAVE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS DECKS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER NEAR PAGE. GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH LOW 60S TO LOW 70S OBSERVED AT
MOST SITES. WHILE THE BROADER DEWPOINT TREND HAS BEEN DRIER THROUGH
THIS EARLY WEEK...OBSERVED VALUES HAVE WIDELY VARIED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL
HOLD SOME MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T
BEEN TOO WARM TO HELP EVAPORATE THIS MOISTURE AWAY. WHERE THE
MORNINGS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES... AFTERNOON MIXING FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD DROP READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER SWIFT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN AZ...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FILTERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM. NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH LOWERED
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX...NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEING JUST OUT OF RANGE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

PACIFIC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN LOOK TO PEAK
ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS IN THE 100-105F RANGE AND
94-99F FOR THE LOWER AZ DESERTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRANSITION TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS BROAD
TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
TROUGHING/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES IN ALONG 30N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS AN AREA WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO PROGGED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT 90 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NEXT NAME ON
THE CYCLONE LIST IS SIMON...AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...STORM PATH OR STORM
EVOLUTION...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD TRANSPORT SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE FIELDS THAT
WORK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL SCALE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS AND POSSIBLY COOLER IF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
MAKE SOME SORT OF A COMEBACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 301034
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
335 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES NOW IS CIRCULATING INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND MUCH OF
AZ...SAVE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS DECKS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER NEAR PAGE. GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH LOW 60S TO LOW 70S OBSERVED AT
MOST SITES. WHILE THE BROADER DEWPOINT TREND HAS BEEN DRIER THROUGH THIS
EARLY WEEK...OBSERVED VALUES HAVE WIDELY VARIED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL HOLD SOME
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T BEEN TOO WARM
TO HELP EVAPORATE THIS MOISTURE AWAY. WHERE THE MORNINGS WILL HAVE A
WIDE RANGE OF VALUES... AFTERNOON MIXING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD
DROP READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIER
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER SWIFT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN AZ...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FILTERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM. NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH LOWERED
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX...NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEING JUST OUT OF RANGE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

PACIFIC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN LOOK TO PEAK
ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS IN THE 100-105F RANGE AND
94-99F FOR THE LOWER AZ DESERTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRANSITION TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS BROAD
TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
TROUGHING/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES IN ALONG 30N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS AN AREA WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO PROGGED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT 90 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NEXT NAME ON
THE CYCLONE LIST IS SIMON...AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...STORM PATH OR STORM
EVOLUTION...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD TRANSPORT SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE FIELDS THAT
WORK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL SCALE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS AND POSSIBLY COOLER IF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
MAKE SOME SORT OF A COMEBACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 301007
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
307 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES NOW IS CIRCULATING INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND MUCH OF
AZ...SAVE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS DECKS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER NEAR PAGE. GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH LOW 60S TO LOW 70S OBSERVED AT
MOST SITES. WHILE THE BROADER DEWPOINT TREND HAS BEEN DRIER THROUGH THIS
EARLY WEEK...OBSERVED VALUES HAVE WIDELY VARIED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL HOLD SOME
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T BEEN TOO WARM
TO HELP EVAPORATE THIS MOISTURE AWAY. WHERE THE MORNINGS WILL HAVE A
WIDE RANGE OF VALUES... AFTERNOON MIXING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD
DROP READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIER
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER SWIFT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN AZ...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FILTERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM. NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH LOWERED
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX...NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEING JUST OUT OF RANGE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

PACIFIC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN LOOK TO PEAK
ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS IN THE 100-105F RANGE AND
94-99F FOR THE LOWER AZ DESERTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRANSITION TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS BROAD
TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
TROUGHING/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES IN ALONG 30N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS AN AREA WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO PROGGED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT 90 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NEXT NAME ON
THE CYCLONE LIST IS SIMON...AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...STORM PATH OR STORM
EVOLUTION...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD TRANSPORT SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE FIELDS THAT
WORK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL SCALE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS AND POSSIBLY COOLER IF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
MAKE SOME SORT OF A COMEBACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 301007
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
307 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES NOW IS CIRCULATING INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND MUCH OF
AZ...SAVE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS DECKS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER NEAR PAGE. GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH LOW 60S TO LOW 70S OBSERVED AT
MOST SITES. WHILE THE BROADER DEWPOINT TREND HAS BEEN DRIER THROUGH THIS
EARLY WEEK...OBSERVED VALUES HAVE WIDELY VARIED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL HOLD SOME
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T BEEN TOO WARM
TO HELP EVAPORATE THIS MOISTURE AWAY. WHERE THE MORNINGS WILL HAVE A
WIDE RANGE OF VALUES... AFTERNOON MIXING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD
DROP READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIER
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER SWIFT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN AZ...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FILTERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM. NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH LOWERED
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX...NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEING JUST OUT OF RANGE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

PACIFIC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN LOOK TO PEAK
ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS IN THE 100-105F RANGE AND
94-99F FOR THE LOWER AZ DESERTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRANSITION TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS BROAD
TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
TROUGHING/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES IN ALONG 30N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS AN AREA WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO PROGGED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT 90 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NEXT NAME ON
THE CYCLONE LIST IS SIMON...AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...STORM PATH OR STORM
EVOLUTION...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD TRANSPORT SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE FIELDS THAT
WORK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL SCALE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS AND POSSIBLY COOLER IF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
MAKE SOME SORT OF A COMEBACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 300354
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE EAST AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND USHER IN DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
LOWER DESERTS IN THE PROCESS. PWAT VALUES DOWN TO JUST 0.61 INCHES
AT TUS PER THE 00Z SOUNDING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUED TO FALL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AT 8 PM. IR IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. NO UPDATES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO
















000
FXUS65 KPSR 300354
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE EAST AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND USHER IN DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
LOWER DESERTS IN THE PROCESS. PWAT VALUES DOWN TO JUST 0.61 INCHES
AT TUS PER THE 00Z SOUNDING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUED TO FALL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AT 8 PM. IR IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. NO UPDATES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO

















000
FXUS65 KPSR 292346 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO














000
FXUS65 KPSR 292346 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO













000
FXUS65 KPSR 292134
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN
ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR...WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL
BE COMMON FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO










000
FXUS65 KPSR 292134
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN
ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR...WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL
BE COMMON FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO











000
FXUS65 KPSR 291720
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1015 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY PROPAGATING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LOCALLY...THE COMBINATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER (PER
12Z KTWC SOUNDING DATA) WERE FORCING AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATO-CU
THROUGH SERN ARIZONA. ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD
MATERIALIZE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE PREPONDERANCE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING...ONLY TRIMMING FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE
ALSO HOLDING SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN LONGER DUE TO WET
GROUND BEFORE DEEPER MIXING DRIES OUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/345 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA...A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CLIP SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CIGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6-7K FT. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 291720
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1015 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY PROPAGATING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LOCALLY...THE COMBINATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER (PER
12Z KTWC SOUNDING DATA) WERE FORCING AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATO-CU
THROUGH SERN ARIZONA. ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD
MATERIALIZE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE PREPONDERANCE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING...ONLY TRIMMING FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE
ALSO HOLDING SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN LONGER DUE TO WET
GROUND BEFORE DEEPER MIXING DRIES OUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/345 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA...A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CLIP SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CIGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6-7K FT. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 291044
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA...A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CLIP SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CIGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6-7K FT. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 291044
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA...A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CLIP SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CIGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6-7K FT. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 291002 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT GENLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 291002 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT GENLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ










000
FXUS65 KPSR 290956
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
256 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 27C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT GENLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 290956
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
256 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 27C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT GENLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 290315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ALL WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
CENTERED OVER SCNTRL NEVADA PER THE LATEST 00Z PLOT DATA.
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUED TO ADVECT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE SRN DESERTS...THE TUCSON
SOUNDING REPORTED A PWAT VALUE OF JUST 0.83 INCHES THIS EVENING
COMPARED TO 1.2 INCHES JUST 12 HOURS AGO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE
LOWER CENTRAL DESERTS RANGED MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AT 8
PM...DOWN 15-25 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SERN CA AND
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL AZ. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECASTS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA CLOSE TO THE UTAH BORDER...AND VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY OTHER THAN A FEW BUILDING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IN THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THAT HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S...A GOOD 15-20 DEGREE CHANGE FROM THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO GAIN A HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION IN ITS EXODUS. AS SUCH...OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK
WILL BE BASED OFF THIS DRIER PATTERN...WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN STORE. MONSOON 2014 IS NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WARM...AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HINT THAT THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE COULD SHIFT EAST AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ALONG
THE WEST COAST...500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 591-593DM OVER ARIZONA.
IF THIS PANS OUT...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAX OUT OVER THE
100 DEGREE MARK...AND BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GIVING US ONE
MORE LAST GASP AT SUMMER HEAT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS
STRONG WARM HAS A BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT
GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY
BE A FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU
MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 290315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ALL WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
CENTERED OVER SCNTRL NEVADA PER THE LATEST 00Z PLOT DATA.
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUED TO ADVECT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE SRN DESERTS...THE TUCSON
SOUNDING REPORTED A PWAT VALUE OF JUST 0.83 INCHES THIS EVENING
COMPARED TO 1.2 INCHES JUST 12 HOURS AGO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE
LOWER CENTRAL DESERTS RANGED MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AT 8
PM...DOWN 15-25 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SERN CA AND
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL AZ. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECASTS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA CLOSE TO THE UTAH BORDER...AND VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY OTHER THAN A FEW BUILDING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IN THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THAT HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S...A GOOD 15-20 DEGREE CHANGE FROM THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO GAIN A HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION IN ITS EXODUS. AS SUCH...OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK
WILL BE BASED OFF THIS DRIER PATTERN...WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN STORE. MONSOON 2014 IS NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WARM...AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HINT THAT THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE COULD SHIFT EAST AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ALONG
THE WEST COAST...500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 591-593DM OVER ARIZONA.
IF THIS PANS OUT...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAX OUT OVER THE
100 DEGREE MARK...AND BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GIVING US ONE
MORE LAST GASP AT SUMMER HEAT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS
STRONG WARM HAS A BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT
GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY
BE A FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU
MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ










000
FXUS65 KPSR 282222
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
318 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ALL WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA CLOSE TO THE UTAH BORDER...AND VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY OTHER THAN A FEW BUILDING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IN THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THAT HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S...A GOOD 15-20 DEGREE CHANGE FROM THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO GAIN A HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION IN ITS EXODUS. AS SUCH...OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK
WILL BE BASED OFF THIS DRIER PATTERN...WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN STORE. MONSOON 2014 IS NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WARM...AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HINT THAT THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE COULD SHIFT EAST AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ALONG
THE WEST COAST...500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 591-593DM OVER ARIZONA.
IF THIS PANS OUT...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAX OUT OVER THE
100 DEGREE MARK...AND BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GIVING US ONE
MORE LAST GASP AT SUMMER HEAT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS
STRONG WARM HAS A BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PUSHED A COOL FRONT THROUGH YESTERDAY REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...BASES AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL. SOME SPOTS CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS COULD OCCASIONALLY
HAVE BROKEN LAYERS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS GILA COUNTY
AND FAR NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...EXPECT MORE CEILINGS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY AND EVEN SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS...STRAY
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS BETWEEN 02Z-08Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...AJ/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 282222
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
318 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ALL WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA CLOSE TO THE UTAH BORDER...AND VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY OTHER THAN A FEW BUILDING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IN THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THAT HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S...A GOOD 15-20 DEGREE CHANGE FROM THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO GAIN A HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION IN ITS EXODUS. AS SUCH...OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK
WILL BE BASED OFF THIS DRIER PATTERN...WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN STORE. MONSOON 2014 IS NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WARM...AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HINT THAT THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE COULD SHIFT EAST AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ALONG
THE WEST COAST...500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 591-593DM OVER ARIZONA.
IF THIS PANS OUT...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAX OUT OVER THE
100 DEGREE MARK...AND BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GIVING US ONE
MORE LAST GASP AT SUMMER HEAT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS
STRONG WARM HAS A BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PUSHED A COOL FRONT THROUGH YESTERDAY REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...BASES AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL. SOME SPOTS CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS COULD OCCASIONALLY
HAVE BROKEN LAYERS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS GILA COUNTY
AND FAR NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...EXPECT MORE CEILINGS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY AND EVEN SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS...STRAY
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS BETWEEN 02Z-08Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...AJ/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 282125 AAB
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TODAY...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED AND SPINNING OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TO MOVE THE LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...AND A DRIER PATTERN AND NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA...THE LAST VESTIGES OF
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART ARE STILL QUITE COOL AND
MOIST...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MUCH DRIER -- GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT 750-400MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND THIS WILL
SUCCESSFULLY CAP THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS THAT WILL POP UP OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY STABLE WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY...RISING ABOVE
NORMAL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PUSHED A COOL FRONT THROUGH YESTERDAY REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...BASES AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL. SOME SPOTS CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS COULD OCCASIONALLY
HAVE BROKEN LAYERS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS GILA COUNTY
AND FAR NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...EXPECT MORE CEILINGS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY AND EVEN SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS...STRAY
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS BETWEEN 02Z-08Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 282125 AAB
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TODAY...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED AND SPINNING OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TO MOVE THE LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...AND A DRIER PATTERN AND NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA...THE LAST VESTIGES OF
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART ARE STILL QUITE COOL AND
MOIST...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MUCH DRIER -- GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT 750-400MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND THIS WILL
SUCCESSFULLY CAP THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS THAT WILL POP UP OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY STABLE WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY...RISING ABOVE
NORMAL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PUSHED A COOL FRONT THROUGH YESTERDAY REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...BASES AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL. SOME SPOTS CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS COULD OCCASIONALLY
HAVE BROKEN LAYERS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS GILA COUNTY
AND FAR NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...EXPECT MORE CEILINGS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY AND EVEN SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS...STRAY
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS BETWEEN 02Z-08Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 281757 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1055 AM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TODAY...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED AND SPINNING OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TO MOVE THE LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...AND A DRIER PATTERN AND NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA...THE LAST VESTIGES OF
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART ARE STILL QUITE COOL AND
MOIST...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MUCH DRIER -- GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT 750-400MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND THIS WILL
SUCCESSFULLY CAP THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS THAT WILL POP UP OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY STABLE WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY...RISING ABOVE
NORMAL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PUSHED A COOL FRONT THROUGH YESTERDAY REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...BASES AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL. SOME SPOTS CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS COULD OCCASIONALLY
HAVE BROKEN LAYERS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS GILA COUNTY
AND FAR NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...EXPECT MORE CEILINGS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY AND EVEN SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS...STRAY
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS BETWEEN 02Z-08Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 281757 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1055 AM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TODAY...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED AND SPINNING OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TO MOVE THE LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...AND A DRIER PATTERN AND NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA...THE LAST VESTIGES OF
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART ARE STILL QUITE COOL AND
MOIST...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MUCH DRIER -- GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT 750-400MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND THIS WILL
SUCCESSFULLY CAP THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS THAT WILL POP UP OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY STABLE WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY...RISING ABOVE
NORMAL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PUSHED A COOL FRONT THROUGH YESTERDAY REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...BASES AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL. SOME SPOTS CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS COULD OCCASIONALLY
HAVE BROKEN LAYERS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS GILA COUNTY
AND FAR NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...EXPECT MORE CEILINGS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY AND EVEN SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS...STRAY
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS BETWEEN 02Z-08Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 281723
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 AM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TODAY...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED AND SPINNING OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TO MOVE THE LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...AND A DRIER PATTERN AND NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA...THE LAST VESTIGES OF
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART ARE STILL QUITE COOL AND
MOIST...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MUCH DRIER -- GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT 750-400MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND THIS WILL
SUCCESSFULLY CAP THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS THAT WILL POP UP OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY STABLE WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY...RISING ABOVE
NORMAL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA BY DAYBREAK...BUT WILL STILL SEE POCKETS OF
FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 8K FEET LASTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL OVERALL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS AT THE PHOENIX
TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 281723
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 AM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TODAY...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED AND SPINNING OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TO MOVE THE LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...AND A DRIER PATTERN AND NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA...THE LAST VESTIGES OF
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART ARE STILL QUITE COOL AND
MOIST...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MUCH DRIER -- GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT 750-400MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND THIS WILL
SUCCESSFULLY CAP THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS THAT WILL POP UP OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY STABLE WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY...RISING ABOVE
NORMAL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA BY DAYBREAK...BUT WILL STILL SEE POCKETS OF
FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 8K FEET LASTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL OVERALL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS AT THE PHOENIX
TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 281136
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
436 AM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY.  DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK...
PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AZ THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AT 3 AM A
SPOTTER IN CAVE CREEK REPORTED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL.
A REFLECTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE WAS BEST SEEN AT 500 MB...WHICH
WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
DAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD CAP ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS LATER IN
THE DAY...AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY STABLE WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY...RISING ABOVE
NORMAL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA BY DAYBREAK...BUT WILL STILL SEE POCKETS OF
FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 8K FEET LASTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL OVERALL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS AT THE PHOENIX
TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN























000
FXUS65 KPSR 281136
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
436 AM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY.  DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK...
PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AZ THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AT 3 AM A
SPOTTER IN CAVE CREEK REPORTED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL.
A REFLECTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE WAS BEST SEEN AT 500 MB...WHICH
WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
DAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD CAP ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS LATER IN
THE DAY...AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY STABLE WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY...RISING ABOVE
NORMAL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA BY DAYBREAK...BUT WILL STILL SEE POCKETS OF
FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 8K FEET LASTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL OVERALL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS AT THE PHOENIX
TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






















000
FXUS65 KPSR 281029
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 AM MST SUN SEP 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY.  DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK...
PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AZ THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AT 3 AM A
SPOTTER IN CAVE CREEK REPORTED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL.
A REFLECTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE WAS BEST SEEN AT 500 MB...WHICH
WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
DAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD CAP ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS LATER IN
THE DAY...AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY STABLE WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY...RISING ABOVE
NORMAL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

FOR THE CENTRAL DESERTS OF ARIZONA...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THE INTENSITIES
ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 05Z...WITH MOST CIGS
AOA 5K FEET...THEN PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO INTO THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE A CLEARING TREND SETS IN. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN SWING BACK TO THE WEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED SUNSHINE/MIXING.

EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT KIPL/KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS TO
FAVOR THE WEST AT BOTH SITES. NO AVIATION IMPACTS OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS THRU SUNDAY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL TREND DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT
BY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRIER AIR...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/MCLANE




















000
FXUS65 KPSR 281029
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 AM MST SUN SEP 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY.  DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK...
PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AZ THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AT 3 AM A
SPOTTER IN CAVE CREEK REPORTED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL.
A REFLECTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE WAS BEST SEEN AT 500 MB...WHICH
WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
DAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD CAP ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS LATER IN
THE DAY...AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY STABLE WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY...RISING ABOVE
NORMAL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

FOR THE CENTRAL DESERTS OF ARIZONA...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THE INTENSITIES
ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 05Z...WITH MOST CIGS
AOA 5K FEET...THEN PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO INTO THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE A CLEARING TREND SETS IN. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN SWING BACK TO THE WEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED SUNSHINE/MIXING.

EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT KIPL/KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS TO
FAVOR THE WEST AT BOTH SITES. NO AVIATION IMPACTS OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS THRU SUNDAY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL TREND DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT
BY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRIER AIR...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/MCLANE



















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