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000
FXUS65 KPSR 260348
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
847 PM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE A RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING DESPITE A VERY WEAK
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LATE DAY CLOUD COVER HAS LONG SINCE
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AS OF 0345Z.

INHERITED FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK AND ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS BASED ON OBS THROUGH 03Z...NO CHANGES
FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW FEATURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN STATES
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY WILL INCREASE THE USUAL AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES A BIT ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ. HOWEVER SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10 KTS. A SLOW
DRYING/CLEARING TREND WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GREATEST AMOUNT OF COOLING OCCURS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE 850MB TEMPERATURES STABILIZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 4-5C FROM TODAY/S
READINGS...WITH EVEN LESS COOLING INDICATED AT 700 AND 500MB.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST OF THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO
ON THE IDEA OF A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT IT IS STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE EURO IS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPCOMING WARMING TREND. WHILE THE
EURO CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS STILL
HOLDS HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S DUE TO ITS FORECAST OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS. AT THIS POINT STILL GIVING THE NOD TO
THE BETTER-PERFORMING EURO WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING AT
LEAST 90F ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
WEEK...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90 BY THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 252132
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
232 PM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE DAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE A RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS TRANSITIONED FURTHER TO OUR EAST TODAY AS
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. TROUGHING
STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...KEEPING SOME AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EARLIER CU FIELDS HAVE THINNED AND
DISSIPATED OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS WHILE PICKING UP
CONSIDERABLY IN THE COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...CLOSER TO THE
WEAK NORTHERLY JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH BODY. EVEN WITH
DECREASING RIDGE HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO READINGS ON
PAR WITH THOSE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SOME FORECAST LOCATIONS COULD
PUSH NEAR THEIR RECORDS FOR THE DAY...PHOENIX`S RECORD AT 96F AND
YUMA`S RECORD AT 100F. GIVEN THE QUICK DISSIPATION AND VERY LOW
TOPPED NATURE OF CU TODAY...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF VIRGA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION OF INTEREST SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AZ.

UPPER LOW FEATURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN STATES
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY WILL INCREASE THE USUAL AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES A BIT ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ. HOWEVER SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10 KTS. A SLOW
DRYING/CLEARING TREND WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GREATEST AMOUNT OF COOLING OCCURS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE 850MB TEMPERATURES STABILIZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 4-5C FROM TODAY/S
READINGS...WITH EVEN LESS COOLING INDICATED AT 700 AND 500MB.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST OF THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO
ON THE IDEA OF A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT IT IS STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE EURO IS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPCOMING WARMING TREND. WHILE THE
EURO CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS STILL
HOLDS HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S DUE TO ITS FORECAST OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS. AT THIS POINT STILL GIVING THE NOD TO
THE BETTER-PERFORMING EURO WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING AT
LEAST 90F ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED WELL OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRING SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS FROM 9-12K FEET.
MID LAYER CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LIKELY MOVING IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
WEEK...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90 BY THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
CLIMATE...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 251710
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT
NOT BEFORE SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE CU FIELDS ALREADY NOTED ON AREA WEBCAMS AND THE FIRST
FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AM. NEIGHBOR AM RAOBS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE MOSTLY THROUGHOUT THE MID
LEVELS AROUND 700MB...WITH DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS/INVERTED V SOUNDING
TRACES BELOW. THIS SOMEWHAT NARROW MOISTURE LAYER...ALTHOUGH MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT 3-4 STANDARD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ON NAEFS ANOMALIES
TABLES TODAY...WILL PERSIST LAYERS OF CU THROUGHOUT THE DAY AREAWIDE
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED TO NEAR THE 1
INCH MARK...CANNOT RULE OUT VIRGA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE TO
TWO OUT OF THE SOME OF THE THICKER CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT ANY WEATHER-GENERATING
POPS IN FOR THE GRIDS TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST STRETCH OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION EASTWARD AS PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WA/OR COAST. PROGRESSION OF
LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH ARE ALREADY AHEAD
12Z GFS/NAM FORECASTS AND COOLING IN THE MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO
SEEM TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER/BEHIND THAN 12Z RAOBS. THOSE
FACTORS...COUPLED WITH THE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING AT THE SURFACE TODAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
MOSTLY SHY OF RECORDS TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

MINOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO ALIGN THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS WHILE SOLIDLY PLACING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO PARTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CU FIELDS SHOULD
TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS MAY STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PERSISTING SOME AREAS OF CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. NO
OTHER UPDATES NEEDED...REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 300 AM MST/PDT...
THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT THAT BROUGHT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA YESTERDAY IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST AS A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROF BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND
INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA. IT APPEARS THAT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR-RECORD
HIGHS IS IN THE CARDS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. HOWEVER...A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...A DEGREE OR SO OF COOLING IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND A SLIGHT LOWERING OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD
KEEP PHOENIX SKY HARBOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHORT OF TODAY/S RECORD
HIGH OF 96F.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS...A RESULT OF A
MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF...ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH PWATS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH/EXCEED 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...A DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE...WITH ONLY A REMOTE CHANCE THAT ANY LOCATION WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
USUAL AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES A BIT ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ...BUT
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10 KTS. A
SLOW DRYING/CLEARING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SINCE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 4-5C FROM TODAY/S READINGS...WITH EVEN LESS
COOLING INDICATED AT 700 AND 500MB. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS PWATS FALL INTO THE 0.40-0.60 INCH
RANGE.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST OF THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EURO ON THE IDEA OF A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT IT IS STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE EURO IS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPCOMING WARMING TREND. WHILE
THE EURO CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS
STILL HOLDS HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S DUE TO ITS FORECAST OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS. IT THIS POINT...STILL GIVING THE NOD
TO THE BETTER-PERFORMING EURO...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
SEEING AT LEAST 90F ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED WELL OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRING SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS FROM 9-12K FEET.
MID LAYER CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LIKELY MOVING IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS NEAR 90F BY
FRIDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA










000
FXUS65 KPSR 251542
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
842 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT
NOT BEFORE SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE CU FIELDS ALREADY NOTED ON AREA WEBCAMS AND THE FIRST
FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AM. NEIGHBOR AM RAOBS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE MOSTLY THROUGHOUT THE MID
LEVELS AROUND 700MB...WITH DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS/INVERTED V SOUNDING
TRACES BELOW. THIS SOMEWHAT NARROW MOISTURE LAYER...ALTHOUGH MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT 3-4 STANDARD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ON NAEFS ANOMALIES
TABLES TODAY...WILL PERSIST LAYERS OF CU THROUGHOUT THE DAY AREAWIDE
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED TO NEAR THE 1
INCH MARK...CANNOT RULE OUT VIRGA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE TO
TWO OUT OF THE SOME OF THE THICKER CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT ANY WEATHER-GENERATING
POPS IN FOR THE GRIDS TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST STRETCH OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION EASTWARD AS PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WA/OR COAST. PROGRESSION OF
LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH ARE ALREADY AHEAD
12Z GFS/NAM FORECASTS AND COOLING IN THE MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO
SEEM TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER/BEHIND THAN 12Z RAOBS. THOSE
FACTORS...COUPLED WITH THE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING AT THE SURFACE TODAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
MOSTLY SHY OF RECORDS TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

MINOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO ALIGN THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS WHILE SOLIDLY PLACING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO PARTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CU FIELDS SHOULD
TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS MAY STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PERSISTING SOME AREAS OF CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. NO
OTHER UPDATES NEEDED...REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 300 AM MST/PDT...
THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT THAT BROUGHT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA YESTERDAY IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST AS A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROF BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND
INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA. IT APPEARS THAT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR-RECORD
HIGHS IS IN THE CARDS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. HOWEVER...A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...A DEGREE OR SO OF COOLING IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND A SLIGHT LOWERING OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD
KEEP PHOENIX SKY HARBOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHORT OF TODAY/S RECORD
HIGH OF 96F.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS...A RESULT OF A
MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF...ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH PWATS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH/EXCEED 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...A DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE...WITH ONLY A REMOTE CHANCE THAT ANY LOCATION WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
USUAL AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES A BIT ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ...BUT
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10 KTS. A
SLOW DRYING/CLEARING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SINCE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 4-5C FROM TODAY/S READINGS...WITH EVEN LESS
COOLING INDICATED AT 700 AND 500MB. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS PWATS FALL INTO THE 0.40-0.60 INCH
RANGE.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST OF THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EURO ON THE IDEA OF A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT IT IS STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE EURO IS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPCOMING WARMING TREND. WHILE
THE EURO CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS
STILL HOLDS HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S DUE TO ITS FORECAST OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS. IT THIS POINT...STILL GIVING THE NOD
TO THE BETTER-PERFORMING EURO...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
SEEING AT LEAST 90F ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A UPPER LOW CENTER THAT WILL
BE MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED-BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUD LAYERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE
LOWEST CIGS/GREATEST CLOUD COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AT ONE...OR
MORE OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CENTER
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENHANCE TYPICAL AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS
TODAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10
KTS...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS RETURNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS NEAR 90F BY
FRIDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 250959
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING
TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT THAT BROUGHT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA YESTERDAY IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST AS A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROF BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND
INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA. IT APPEARS THAT ONE MORE DAY OF
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS IS IN THE CARDS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY.
HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...A DEGREE OR SO OF
COOLING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND A SLIGHT LOWERING OF 500MB
HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP PHOENIX SKY HARBOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHORT OF
TODAY/S RECORD HIGH OF 96F.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS...A RESULT OF A
MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF...ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH PWATS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH/EXCEED 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...A DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE...WITH ONLY A REMOTE CHANCE THAT ANY LOCATION WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
USUAL AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES A BIT ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ...BUT
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10 KTS. A
SLOW DRYING/CLEARING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SINCE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 4-5C FROM TODAY/S READINGS...WITH EVEN LESS
COOLING INDICATED AT 700 AND 500MB. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS PWATS FALL INTO THE 0.40-0.60 INCH
RANGE.


AS FAR AS THE FORECAST OF THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EURO ON THE IDEA OF A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT IT IS STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE EURO IS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPCOMING WARMING TREND. WHILE
THE EURO CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS
STILL HOLDS HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S DUE TO ITS FORECAST OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS. IT THIS POINT...STILL GIVING THE NOD
TO THE BETTER-PERFORMING EURO...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
SEEING AT LEAST 90F ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A UPPER LOW CENTER THAT WILL
BE MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED-BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUD LAYERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE
LOWEST CIGS/GREATEST CLOUD COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AT ONE...OR
MORE OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CENTER
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENHANCE TYPICAL AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS
TODAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10
KTS...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS RETURNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS NEAR 90F BY
FRIDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...PERCHA
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 250301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
800 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND H5 HEIGHTS WERE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER SRN AZ PER THE 00Z PLOT DATA. IR
IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT/HIGH HEIGHTS...HIGH TEMPS TODAY
CLIMBED ANOTHER FEW DEGREES AND INTO RECORD TERRITORY OVER THE
WARMER LOWER DESERTS. PHOENIX TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES
TODAY...A MARK THAT WAS 9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW OFF
NRN BAJA STARTS TO MOVE INLAND INTO FAR SERN CA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS AZ AS A WEAK OPEN WAVE ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD TO THE SRN DESERTS AND LEADING TO
PARTLY OR EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE PHOENIX AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED SATURDAY PARTLY DUE TO
EXPECTED VERY DRY AIR THAT WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 590DM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
AZ/NM BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS...850MB
TEMPS AROUND 22-23C...AND SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S AS OF 20Z. WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF WARMING...NEAR RECORD TEMPS LOOK LIKE A LOCK BEFORE THE DAY
IS OVER IN THE PHOENIX AREA. TODAY`S RECORD IS IN JEOPARDY IN
PHOENIX WHEREAS YUMA`S RECORD OF 105 WILL REMAIN UNTOUCHED.

NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON THIS
SHIFT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW JUST WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS...EURO...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE
INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 310-320K SURFACES ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
TOMORROW STILL REVEAL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH NEAR SATURATION BETWEEN 700-500MB TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW AZ. WHILE IT DOESN`T LOOK
IMPRESSIVE IN THE LEAST ON SATELLITE AT THE MOMENT...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD FILL IN AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. I BUMPED UP CLOUD
COVER AND ALSO NUDGED POPS CLOSER TO 10 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO UTAH ON SUNDAY. THIS
SECONDARY TROUGH COULD ALSO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA BUT OUR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERTS LOOK SLIM
TO NIL. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER SINGLE DIGIT POPS EAST OF PHOENIX FOR
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BEGIN A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A FLAT RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THE SUBJECT OF TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER. HARD TO CALL IT A COOL-DOWN BUT DESERT TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES COOLER. STILL IN THE LOW/MID 90S.
DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER STARTING IN THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING SATURDAY AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED THROUGH
ARIZONA...COULD EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN SOME SPOTS BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL
AS CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MOST BASES
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS SATURDAY WILL BE AOA 8K FEET. AS
FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD AS ANY TROUGHS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB/LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS










000
FXUS65 KPSR 242033
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
133 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 590DM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
AZ/NM BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS...850MB
TEMPS AROUND 22-23C...AND SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S AS OF 20Z. WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF WARMING...NEAR RECORD TEMPS LOOK LIKE A LOCK BEFORE THE DAY
IS OVER IN THE PHOENIX AREA. TODAY`S RECORD IS IN JEOPARDY IN
PHOENIX WHEREAS YUMA`S RECORD OF 105 WILL REMAIN UNTOUCHED.

NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON THIS
SHIFT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW JUST WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS...EURO...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE
INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 310-320K SURFACES ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
TOMORROW STILL REVEAL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH NEAR SATURATION BETWEEN 700-500MB TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW AZ. WHILE IT DOESN`T LOOK
IMPRESSIVE IN THE LEAST ON SATELLITE AT THE MOMENT...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD FILL IN AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. I BUMPED UP CLOUD
COVER AND ALSO NUDGED POPS CLOSER TO 10 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO UTAH ON SUNDAY. THIS
SECONDARY TROUGH COULD ALSO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA BUT OUR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERTS LOOK SLIM
TO NIL. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER SINGLE DIGIT POPS EAST OF PHOENIX FOR
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BEGIN A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A FLAT RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THE SUBJECT OF TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER. HARD TO CALL IT A COOL-DOWN BUT DESERT TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES COOLER. STILL IN THE LOW/MID 90S.
DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED THROUGH ARIZONA...COULD EVEN BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN SOME SPOTS BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL AS CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AS FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD AS ANY TROUGHS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
942 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER WITH APPROX 590DM H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE AREA PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
ON THE WAY AND ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 80S AS OF 1630Z.

NOT GOING TO BE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS
THINGS APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. A CONSENSUS BLEND OF BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTS SQUARELY AT 96 FOR A HIGH AT PHOENIX TODAY
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES AROUND YUMA/EL CENTRO. RECORDS ARE
CERTAINLY WITHIN REACH THIS AFTERNOON AT PHOENIX BUT YUMA`S RECORD
OF 105 WILL REMAIN INTACT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING AN INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO AZ. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IVT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. NET
DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXCEPT BELOW 900 MB
WHERE THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LATEST
FORECAST OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
REACH THE RECORD OF 96 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.

DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS PLACES THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR
PHOENIX WITH HIGH CLOUDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EASTWARD. PHOENIX RECORD
HIGH OF 96 DEGREES IS IN JEOPARDY TODAY...THOUGH THE DAILY RECORD OF
105 DEGREES IN YUMA IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING AN INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO AZ. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IVT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. NET
DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXCEPT BELOW 900 MB
WHERE THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LATEST
FORECAST OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
REACH THE RECORD OF 96 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.

DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS PLACES THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR
PHOENIX WITH HIGH CLOUDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EASTWARD. PHOENIX RECORD
HIGH OF 96 DEGREES IS IN JEOPARDY TODAY...THOUGH THE DAILY RECORD OF
105 DEGREES IN YUMA IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING AN INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO AZ. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IVT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. NET
DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXCEPT BELOW 900 MB
WHERE THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LATEST
FORECAST OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
REACH THE RECORD OF 96 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.

DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 240315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 589DM ACROSS ARIZONA PER THE 00Z
PLOT DATA. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND VERY HIGH
HEIGHTS RESULTED IN VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 94 DEGREES...8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND MILD
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF MID 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF ARIZONA. MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOHAVE AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SO FAR...WE HAVE ONLY
HAD 4 DAYS BELOW 90 DEGREES. OUR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
RAPIDLY DROPPING EACH DAY OR SO AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S BY THE
END OF THE MONTH.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WHAT WILL
BE A WEAK TROUGH IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO US IN ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE EARLY START OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 576DM EARLY MONDAY. BECAUSE
OF THIS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE NEXT
STRETCH...HOWEVER COOL MEANING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320AM MST/PDT OCT 23/...
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TAF SITES. VERY WEAK SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
GRADIENTS SO WIND AT THE TERMINALS WILL FAVOR LIGHT VARIABLE LESS
THAN 5KT FOR THE MOST PART...OCCASIONALLY TENDING TOWARDS NORMAL
DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES
AND UPPER SLOPES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS












000
FXUS65 KPSR 240315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 589DM ACROSS ARIZONA PER THE 00Z
PLOT DATA. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND VERY HIGH
HEIGHTS RESULTED IN VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 94 DEGREES...8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND MILD
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF MID 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF ARIZONA. MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOHAVE AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SO FAR...WE HAVE ONLY
HAD 4 DAYS BELOW 90 DEGREES. OUR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
RAPIDLY DROPPING EACH DAY OR SO AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S BY THE
END OF THE MONTH.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WHAT WILL
BE A WEAK TROUGH IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO US IN ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE EARLY START OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 576DM EARLY MONDAY. BECAUSE
OF THIS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE NEXT
STRETCH...HOWEVER COOL MEANING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320AM MST/PDT OCT 23/...
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TAF SITES. VERY WEAK SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
GRADIENTS SO WIND AT THE TERMINALS WILL FAVOR LIGHT VARIABLE LESS
THAN 5KT FOR THE MOST PART...OCCASIONALLY TENDING TOWARDS NORMAL
DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES
AND UPPER SLOPES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS












000
FXUS65 KPSR 232208
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF MID 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF ARIZONA. MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOHAVE AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SO FAR...WE HAVE ONLY
HAD 4 DAYS BELOW 90 DEGREES. OUR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
RAPIDLY DROPPING EACH DAY OR SO AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S BY THE
END OF THE MONTH.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WHAT WILL
BE A WEAK TROUGH IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO US IN ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE EARLY START OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 576DM EARLY MONDAY. BECAUSE
OF THIS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE NEXT
STRETCH...HOWEVER COOL MEANING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320AM MST/PDT OCT 23/...
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY 8KT OR LESS AND GENERALLY FOLLOWING ESTABLISHED
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES
AND UPPER SLOPES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 231550
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 AM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MILD AND CALM MORNING ACROSS THE DESERTS. TEMPERATURES BOTTOMED OUT
IN THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE GREATER METRO PHOENIX AREA...WITH A
FEW UPPER 50S NOTED IN CHANDLER...MESA...GLENDALE...AND BUCKEYE.
CLEAR SKIES AS OF CURRENT WRITING THIS MORNING ACROSS PHOENIX WITH
SOME SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE UNDER BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY AND A
WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND
NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320AM MST/PDT OCT 23/...
TODAY MARKS THE LATEST 100 DEGREE READING ON RECORD IN
PHOENIX...WHICH OCCURRED IN 2003. REACHING 100 DEGREES AGAIN THIS
YEAR IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE
TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FOR TODAY...WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN
STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES. MEANWHILE...LATEST NAM SIMULATED
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD...YIELDING A PROMINENT
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.

COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM
TIME-TO-TIME AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH
HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA










000
FXUS65 KPSR 231019
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY MARKS THE LATEST 100 DEGREE READING ON RECORD IN
PHOENIX...WHICH OCCURRED IN 2003. REACHING 100 DEGREES AGAIN THIS
YEAR IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE
TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FOR TODAY...WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN
STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES. MEANWHILE...LATEST NAM SIMULATED
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD...YIELDING A PROMINENT
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.

COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM
TIME-TO-TIME AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH
HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 231019
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY MARKS THE LATEST 100 DEGREE READING ON RECORD IN
PHOENIX...WHICH OCCURRED IN 2003. REACHING 100 DEGREES AGAIN THIS
YEAR IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE
TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FOR TODAY...WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN
STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES. MEANWHILE...LATEST NAM SIMULATED
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD...YIELDING A PROMINENT
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.

COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM
TIME-TO-TIME AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH
HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







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