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000
FXUS65 KPSR 012159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
258 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION GETTING A FAIRLY SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT OF A
WORKED-OVER AND BRIEFLY STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER THROUGH THE 2 PM MST HOUR THE MOGOLLON RIM WAS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE FIRST ACTIVITY OF THE AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF
TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ON PAR WITH READINGS FROM
YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE THIN CIRRUS LAYER HOLDING OVER MANY AZ
DESERT ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFTING RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER...WHICH WILL DRIVE ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS...OUTFLOWS AND
EVENTUAL STORM BLOW-OFF TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING. WV/IR
LOOPS STILL SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH CIRCULATION PERSISTING SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL A RATHER MOISTURE-RICH POOL
RUNNING FROM CENTRAL AZ WESTWARD...WITH GPS IPW VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER FROM PHOENIX THROUGH YUMA AND
INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

BOTH HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS AM AND MIDDAY INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL ON THE AM RADAR ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...AND REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. STORM
INITIATION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL SE AZ CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER START ACROSS NORTHERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM. WITH
LINGERING MODEST INSTABILITY AND STILL ELEVATED STEERING FLOW IN THE
PROFILE...STORMS AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY OF OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE EVENING. SAVE FOR AN
ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER DEBRIS CLOUDS...STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF
PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTIES LOOKS RATHER MUTED FOR THIS EVENING. NOT
MUTED ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUB-WEATHER GENERATING POPS...BUT POPS NOT
MUCH ABOVE 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHT CHANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AZ DESERTS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOWER STORM MOTION INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
SOMEWHAT. GIVING STORMS ARE ORIENTATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO
PICK-UP DUST...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BLOWING DUST ALONG I8 AND I10
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT GIVEN RECENT STORM ACTIVITY AND
RAINFALL THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DUST WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LOFT IF OUTFLOWS PRESENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY THINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL RESPOND IN KIND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND NEAR 110F DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY IN NATURE...THE CHANCE FOR DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAYTIME REDUCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A BIT LESS FAVORABLE TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REDUCE INSTABILITY A BIT.
STILL...THERE IS AROUND A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE DESERTS TONIGHT. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE...THUNDER
CURRENTLY NOT MENTIONED IN THE AREA TAFS. GUSTY WIND SHIFTS AND TSRA
WILL NEED TO BE ADDED AS AMENDMENTS SHOULD STORMS THREATEN. LIKELY
WILL NOT SEE CONVECTION REACH THE DESERTS TIL AT LEAST 03Z AND IT
MAY PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT. CIGS TO STAY AOA 8K FEET OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...UNLESS VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER OVER SERN CA HAS
DISSIPATED BUT DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AGAIN WEST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ISOLD COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER OR SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
UNTIL CONVECTION STARTS TO THREATEN ONE OF THE AIRFIELDS. OVERALL
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID/UPPER LEVEL DECKS THIS EVENING WITH A CLEARING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT ERRATIC TODAY...BUT
SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART AT KBLH NEXT 24
HOURS...MAYBE SWINGING TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A PORTION OF THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS MAY BE ELEVATED AT TIMES TONIGHT...OVER 14KT. EXPECT
WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL MOSTLY AOB 12KT...BUT MAY SWING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL FOR A FEW HOURS AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 012159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
258 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION GETTING A FAIRLY SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT OF A
WORKED-OVER AND BRIEFLY STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER THROUGH THE 2 PM MST HOUR THE MOGOLLON RIM WAS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE FIRST ACTIVITY OF THE AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF
TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ON PAR WITH READINGS FROM
YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE THIN CIRRUS LAYER HOLDING OVER MANY AZ
DESERT ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFTING RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER...WHICH WILL DRIVE ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS...OUTFLOWS AND
EVENTUAL STORM BLOW-OFF TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING. WV/IR
LOOPS STILL SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH CIRCULATION PERSISTING SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL A RATHER MOISTURE-RICH POOL
RUNNING FROM CENTRAL AZ WESTWARD...WITH GPS IPW VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER FROM PHOENIX THROUGH YUMA AND
INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

BOTH HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS AM AND MIDDAY INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL ON THE AM RADAR ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...AND REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. STORM
INITIATION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL SE AZ CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER START ACROSS NORTHERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM. WITH
LINGERING MODEST INSTABILITY AND STILL ELEVATED STEERING FLOW IN THE
PROFILE...STORMS AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY OF OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE EVENING. SAVE FOR AN
ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER DEBRIS CLOUDS...STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF
PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTIES LOOKS RATHER MUTED FOR THIS EVENING. NOT
MUTED ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUB-WEATHER GENERATING POPS...BUT POPS NOT
MUCH ABOVE 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHT CHANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AZ DESERTS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOWER STORM MOTION INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
SOMEWHAT. GIVING STORMS ARE ORIENTATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO
PICK-UP DUST...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BLOWING DUST ALONG I8 AND I10
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT GIVEN RECENT STORM ACTIVITY AND
RAINFALL THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DUST WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LOFT IF OUTFLOWS PRESENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY THINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL RESPOND IN KIND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND NEAR 110F DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY IN NATURE...THE CHANCE FOR DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAYTIME REDUCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A BIT LESS FAVORABLE TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REDUCE INSTABILITY A BIT.
STILL...THERE IS AROUND A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE DESERTS TONIGHT. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE...THUNDER
CURRENTLY NOT MENTIONED IN THE AREA TAFS. GUSTY WIND SHIFTS AND TSRA
WILL NEED TO BE ADDED AS AMENDMENTS SHOULD STORMS THREATEN. LIKELY
WILL NOT SEE CONVECTION REACH THE DESERTS TIL AT LEAST 03Z AND IT
MAY PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT. CIGS TO STAY AOA 8K FEET OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...UNLESS VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER OVER SERN CA HAS
DISSIPATED BUT DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AGAIN WEST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ISOLD COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER OR SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
UNTIL CONVECTION STARTS TO THREATEN ONE OF THE AIRFIELDS. OVERALL
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID/UPPER LEVEL DECKS THIS EVENING WITH A CLEARING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT ERRATIC TODAY...BUT
SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART AT KBLH NEXT 24
HOURS...MAYBE SWINGING TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A PORTION OF THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS MAY BE ELEVATED AT TIMES TONIGHT...OVER 14KT. EXPECT
WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL MOSTLY AOB 12KT...BUT MAY SWING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL FOR A FEW HOURS AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011622
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ALONG AND PARALLEL TO I-10
FROM ABOUT QUARTZSITE ALL THE WAY TO THE CWA BORDER AT JTNP AND NEAR
THERMAL/PALM SPRINGS THIS MORNING. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AM SHOWS THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS AND STORM CLOUDS OVER FAR WESTERN AZ
AND NEARLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CA...WITH SOME THINNING DEBRIS
FIELDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AZ. ML/UL UPPER RIDGE
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MIGRATE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH THE
300/250MB HIGH CENTERS NOW PLOTTED OVER NORTHERN NM...TRANSITION
FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH ITS REPOSITIONING.

MORNING MODEL STREAMLINE FCSTS SHOW REMNANT MCV/300 MB INVERTED
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AZ...WITH FAIRLY CONFLUENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE 1.93 INCH READINGS ON THIS
MORNING`S KPSR BALLOON IS AT NEAR-RECORD LEVELS...BUT LIKELY
CONTAMINATED/WATER WEIGHTED AS PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND A
EVEN ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO REMAINED OVER THE AREA. 500-300MB WINDS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE...WITH 35-40KTS...BUT ARE FCST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS WE GET THROUGH THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DROP
CAPES AT OR BELOW 800 J/KG READINGS BY THE AFTERNOON AND THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WARM WE`LL GET TODAY TO HELP SUPPORT AND
EVEN FIRE CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HI-RES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY OF INTEREST GNLY ON
THE FCST AREA PERIPHERY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE AND ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 310 AM MST/PDT/...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A RATHER STRONG INVERTED
TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A RATHER STRONG
JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN THE 200-300MB
LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES AOA
1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUIETER. THE
LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL DROP INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-600 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A SUBSTANTIAL
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN COMPARED TO
TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE METRO THIS MORNING...THOUGH BE AS CLOSE AS LUKE AFB/WHITE TANKS.
REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER..WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A ROGUE STORM IMPACTING ONE OF THE CNTRL
ARIZONA AERODROMES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K FT...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND VERY LOCALIZED
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL AWAY
FROM TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND VERY LITTLE TO NO MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011622
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ALONG AND PARALLEL TO I-10
FROM ABOUT QUARTZSITE ALL THE WAY TO THE CWA BORDER AT JTNP AND NEAR
THERMAL/PALM SPRINGS THIS MORNING. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AM SHOWS THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS AND STORM CLOUDS OVER FAR WESTERN AZ
AND NEARLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CA...WITH SOME THINNING DEBRIS
FIELDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AZ. ML/UL UPPER RIDGE
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MIGRATE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH THE
300/250MB HIGH CENTERS NOW PLOTTED OVER NORTHERN NM...TRANSITION
FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH ITS REPOSITIONING.

MORNING MODEL STREAMLINE FCSTS SHOW REMNANT MCV/300 MB INVERTED
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AZ...WITH FAIRLY CONFLUENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE 1.93 INCH READINGS ON THIS
MORNING`S KPSR BALLOON IS AT NEAR-RECORD LEVELS...BUT LIKELY
CONTAMINATED/WATER WEIGHTED AS PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND A
EVEN ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO REMAINED OVER THE AREA. 500-300MB WINDS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE...WITH 35-40KTS...BUT ARE FCST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS WE GET THROUGH THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DROP
CAPES AT OR BELOW 800 J/KG READINGS BY THE AFTERNOON AND THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WARM WE`LL GET TODAY TO HELP SUPPORT AND
EVEN FIRE CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HI-RES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY OF INTEREST GNLY ON
THE FCST AREA PERIPHERY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE AND ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 310 AM MST/PDT/...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A RATHER STRONG INVERTED
TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A RATHER STRONG
JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN THE 200-300MB
LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES AOA
1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUIETER. THE
LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL DROP INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-600 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A SUBSTANTIAL
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN COMPARED TO
TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE METRO THIS MORNING...THOUGH BE AS CLOSE AS LUKE AFB/WHITE TANKS.
REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER..WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A ROGUE STORM IMPACTING ONE OF THE CNTRL
ARIZONA AERODROMES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K FT...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND VERY LOCALIZED
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL AWAY
FROM TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND VERY LITTLE TO NO MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011141
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND A
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A
RATHER STRONG INVERTED TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A RATHER STRONG JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUIETER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-
600 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW
AND NMM MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO
THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET
TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM
RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB
WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80
INCH RANGE. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS QUITE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
QUITE STRONG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SW-LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE METRO THIS MORNING...THOUGH BE AS CLOSE AS LUKE AFB/WHITE TANKS.
REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER..WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A ROGUE STORM IMPACTING ONE OF THE CNTRL
ARIZONA AERODROMES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K FT...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND VERY LOCALIZED
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL AWAY
FROM TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND VERY LITTLE TO NO MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011141
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND A
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A
RATHER STRONG INVERTED TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A RATHER STRONG JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUIETER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-
600 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW
AND NMM MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO
THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET
TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM
RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB
WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80
INCH RANGE. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS QUITE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
QUITE STRONG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SW-LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE METRO THIS MORNING...THOUGH BE AS CLOSE AS LUKE AFB/WHITE TANKS.
REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER..WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A ROGUE STORM IMPACTING ONE OF THE CNTRL
ARIZONA AERODROMES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K FT...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND VERY LOCALIZED
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL AWAY
FROM TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND VERY LITTLE TO NO MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011141
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND A
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A
RATHER STRONG INVERTED TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A RATHER STRONG JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUIETER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-
600 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW
AND NMM MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO
THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET
TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM
RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB
WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80
INCH RANGE. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS QUITE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
QUITE STRONG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SW-LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE METRO THIS MORNING...THOUGH BE AS CLOSE AS LUKE AFB/WHITE TANKS.
REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER..WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A ROGUE STORM IMPACTING ONE OF THE CNTRL
ARIZONA AERODROMES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K FT...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND VERY LOCALIZED
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL AWAY
FROM TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND VERY LITTLE TO NO MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011141
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND A
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A
RATHER STRONG INVERTED TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A RATHER STRONG JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUIETER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-
600 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW
AND NMM MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO
THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET
TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM
RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB
WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80
INCH RANGE. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS QUITE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
QUITE STRONG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SW-LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE METRO THIS MORNING...THOUGH BE AS CLOSE AS LUKE AFB/WHITE TANKS.
REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER..WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A ROGUE STORM IMPACTING ONE OF THE CNTRL
ARIZONA AERODROMES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K FT...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND VERY LOCALIZED
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL AWAY
FROM TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND VERY LITTLE TO NO MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011009
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 AM MST WED JUL 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE
STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND A
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A
RATHER STRONG INVERTED TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A RATHER STRONG JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUIETER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-
600 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW
AND NMM MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO
THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET
TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM
RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB
WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80
INCH RANGE. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS QUITE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
QUITE STRONG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SW-LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

STORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY NIBBLED AT METRO PHOENIX WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BEFORE 10Z BUT MAY
NEED TO REMOVE VCTS FROM TAFS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. IF ANY STORMS
MANAGE TO FORM THEY WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND
BE LONG LIVED. WHAT STARTS OFF AS A WEAK STORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VERY STRONG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST
STARTING AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z. WILL TAKE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY
COMPONENTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011009
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 AM MST WED JUL 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE
STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND A
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A
RATHER STRONG INVERTED TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A RATHER STRONG JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUIETER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-
600 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW
AND NMM MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO
THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET
TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM
RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB
WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80
INCH RANGE. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS QUITE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
QUITE STRONG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SW-LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

STORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY NIBBLED AT METRO PHOENIX WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BEFORE 10Z BUT MAY
NEED TO REMOVE VCTS FROM TAFS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. IF ANY STORMS
MANAGE TO FORM THEY WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND
BE LONG LIVED. WHAT STARTS OFF AS A WEAK STORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VERY STRONG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST
STARTING AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z. WILL TAKE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY
COMPONENTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 010453
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE
MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... WITH LARGE CAPE AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF ARIZONA...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WAS ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES INCLUDING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
00Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWED SOME CIN REQUIRING A GOOD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO OVERCOME IN ORDER FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 J/KG TO BE
REALIZED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
TRENDING DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE CIN. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...OVER TWC CWA...WITH PIMA COUNTY SEEING THE STRONGEST
AND MOST NUMEROUS STORMS. STORMS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AND NONE HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY STRONG THOUGH FAR NORTH
PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY HAVE HAVE SEEN SOME NOTABLE LIGHTNING.
LATE ARRIVING 03Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWS SIMILAR TEMP AND DEW POINT
PROFILES TO 00Z WITH VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO CONTINUING.
THIS KIND OF SITUATION IS ONE IN WHICH ANY ONE STORM COULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP INTO SOMETHING SEVERE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
BLOSSOMING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA AND CONTINUING INTO YUMA AND LA
PAZ...AND WESTWARD...WITH A SECOND ROUND DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA AFTER 10Z AND CONTINUING WESTWARD. THUS WILL NOT
DROP THE WATCH FOR OUR AREA JUST YET NOR DROP THE POPS JUST YET.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 PM MST/PDT... THE FORECAST AREA IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MCVS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LINGERING
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST CA... RAPIDLY COOLING
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE RIM AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
LOWER AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. AM CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE
POOL HAS ALLOWED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
SIDE...WITH AREA TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK FOR RADAR COVERAGE TO RAPIDLY FILL IN OVER THE
RIM THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DROP OUTFLOWS AND RESULTING STORM BUILD-
UPS INTO THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS WHILE STORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY
CLEARS TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA.

AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE OBSERVED WINDS AND A SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDING FROM KTWC TODAY ALL INDICATE STILL FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR
AND ENHANCED STEERING FLOW AFTN/EVENING PROFILE AVAILABLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ AND INTO EASTERN AZ. MODEL FCSTS CONTINUE FAVORABLE ML
SHEAR...BALLPARK 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SE/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLENDED TPW PWATS AND GPS IPW
INDICATE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH VALUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF AZ AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT MCV JUST OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL. FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION STILL PAINT FAIRLY HEALTH ML AND MU CAPES AMOUNTS ANYWHERE
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS
COMING TOGETHER TO SAY POTENTIAL IS HIGH...AND CONCERN AS WELL...FOR
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING
OVER THE PHOENIX METRO....STRONG STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY MAY SEND
SEVERAL STRONG OUTFLOWS INTO THE REGION TO HELP INITIAL ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING. EVEN THOUGH STORM MOTION MAY BE FASTER THAN WHAT
WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING THE MONSOON...CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS WELL GIVEN THE NEAR-RECORD AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA FOR THIS LATE IN JUNE. STRONG DOWNBURST/MICROBURST WINDS...LONG-
LIVED OUTFLOWS...ACCOMPANYING BLOWING DUST AND EVEN HAIL IN THE
SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

WITH THE ADDITIONAL BOOST OF ENERGY AND POTENTIAL FROM THE LONG-
TRAVELING TX MCV...STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST TOWARDS THE
CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA LATER OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL GREAT THE AREA BY THE
AM...KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE WARMSIDE BUT ALSO
INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND OPEN
TO JULY WITH AT LEAST NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.

500MB HIGH BEGINS TO REPOSITION BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO TO
ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN
AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY MODIFIES OVER
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

STORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY NIBBLED AT METRO PHOENIX WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BEFORE 10Z BUT MAY
NEED TO REMOVE VCTS FROM TAFS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. IF ANY STORMS
MANAGE TO FORM THEY WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND
BE LONG LIVED. WHAT STARTS OFF AS A WEAK STORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VERY STRONG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST
STARTING AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z. WILL TAKE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY
COMPONENTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MEYERS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 010453
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE
MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... WITH LARGE CAPE AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF ARIZONA...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WAS ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES INCLUDING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
00Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWED SOME CIN REQUIRING A GOOD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO OVERCOME IN ORDER FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 J/KG TO BE
REALIZED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
TRENDING DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE CIN. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...OVER TWC CWA...WITH PIMA COUNTY SEEING THE STRONGEST
AND MOST NUMEROUS STORMS. STORMS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AND NONE HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY STRONG THOUGH FAR NORTH
PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY HAVE HAVE SEEN SOME NOTABLE LIGHTNING.
LATE ARRIVING 03Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWS SIMILAR TEMP AND DEW POINT
PROFILES TO 00Z WITH VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO CONTINUING.
THIS KIND OF SITUATION IS ONE IN WHICH ANY ONE STORM COULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP INTO SOMETHING SEVERE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
BLOSSOMING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA AND CONTINUING INTO YUMA AND LA
PAZ...AND WESTWARD...WITH A SECOND ROUND DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA AFTER 10Z AND CONTINUING WESTWARD. THUS WILL NOT
DROP THE WATCH FOR OUR AREA JUST YET NOR DROP THE POPS JUST YET.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 PM MST/PDT... THE FORECAST AREA IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MCVS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LINGERING
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST CA... RAPIDLY COOLING
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE RIM AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
LOWER AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. AM CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE
POOL HAS ALLOWED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
SIDE...WITH AREA TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK FOR RADAR COVERAGE TO RAPIDLY FILL IN OVER THE
RIM THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DROP OUTFLOWS AND RESULTING STORM BUILD-
UPS INTO THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS WHILE STORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY
CLEARS TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA.

AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE OBSERVED WINDS AND A SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDING FROM KTWC TODAY ALL INDICATE STILL FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR
AND ENHANCED STEERING FLOW AFTN/EVENING PROFILE AVAILABLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ AND INTO EASTERN AZ. MODEL FCSTS CONTINUE FAVORABLE ML
SHEAR...BALLPARK 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SE/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLENDED TPW PWATS AND GPS IPW
INDICATE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH VALUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF AZ AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT MCV JUST OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL. FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION STILL PAINT FAIRLY HEALTH ML AND MU CAPES AMOUNTS ANYWHERE
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS
COMING TOGETHER TO SAY POTENTIAL IS HIGH...AND CONCERN AS WELL...FOR
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING
OVER THE PHOENIX METRO....STRONG STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY MAY SEND
SEVERAL STRONG OUTFLOWS INTO THE REGION TO HELP INITIAL ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING. EVEN THOUGH STORM MOTION MAY BE FASTER THAN WHAT
WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING THE MONSOON...CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS WELL GIVEN THE NEAR-RECORD AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA FOR THIS LATE IN JUNE. STRONG DOWNBURST/MICROBURST WINDS...LONG-
LIVED OUTFLOWS...ACCOMPANYING BLOWING DUST AND EVEN HAIL IN THE
SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

WITH THE ADDITIONAL BOOST OF ENERGY AND POTENTIAL FROM THE LONG-
TRAVELING TX MCV...STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST TOWARDS THE
CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA LATER OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL GREAT THE AREA BY THE
AM...KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE WARMSIDE BUT ALSO
INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND OPEN
TO JULY WITH AT LEAST NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.

500MB HIGH BEGINS TO REPOSITION BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO TO
ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN
AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY MODIFIES OVER
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

STORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY NIBBLED AT METRO PHOENIX WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BEFORE 10Z BUT MAY
NEED TO REMOVE VCTS FROM TAFS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. IF ANY STORMS
MANAGE TO FORM THEY WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND
BE LONG LIVED. WHAT STARTS OFF AS A WEAK STORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VERY STRONG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST
STARTING AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z. WILL TAKE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY
COMPONENTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MEYERS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 010453
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE
MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... WITH LARGE CAPE AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF ARIZONA...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WAS ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES INCLUDING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
00Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWED SOME CIN REQUIRING A GOOD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO OVERCOME IN ORDER FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 J/KG TO BE
REALIZED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
TRENDING DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE CIN. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...OVER TWC CWA...WITH PIMA COUNTY SEEING THE STRONGEST
AND MOST NUMEROUS STORMS. STORMS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AND NONE HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY STRONG THOUGH FAR NORTH
PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY HAVE HAVE SEEN SOME NOTABLE LIGHTNING.
LATE ARRIVING 03Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWS SIMILAR TEMP AND DEW POINT
PROFILES TO 00Z WITH VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO CONTINUING.
THIS KIND OF SITUATION IS ONE IN WHICH ANY ONE STORM COULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP INTO SOMETHING SEVERE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
BLOSSOMING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA AND CONTINUING INTO YUMA AND LA
PAZ...AND WESTWARD...WITH A SECOND ROUND DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA AFTER 10Z AND CONTINUING WESTWARD. THUS WILL NOT
DROP THE WATCH FOR OUR AREA JUST YET NOR DROP THE POPS JUST YET.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 PM MST/PDT... THE FORECAST AREA IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MCVS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LINGERING
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST CA... RAPIDLY COOLING
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE RIM AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
LOWER AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. AM CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE
POOL HAS ALLOWED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
SIDE...WITH AREA TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK FOR RADAR COVERAGE TO RAPIDLY FILL IN OVER THE
RIM THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DROP OUTFLOWS AND RESULTING STORM BUILD-
UPS INTO THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS WHILE STORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY
CLEARS TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA.

AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE OBSERVED WINDS AND A SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDING FROM KTWC TODAY ALL INDICATE STILL FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR
AND ENHANCED STEERING FLOW AFTN/EVENING PROFILE AVAILABLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ AND INTO EASTERN AZ. MODEL FCSTS CONTINUE FAVORABLE ML
SHEAR...BALLPARK 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SE/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLENDED TPW PWATS AND GPS IPW
INDICATE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH VALUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF AZ AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT MCV JUST OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL. FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION STILL PAINT FAIRLY HEALTH ML AND MU CAPES AMOUNTS ANYWHERE
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS
COMING TOGETHER TO SAY POTENTIAL IS HIGH...AND CONCERN AS WELL...FOR
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING
OVER THE PHOENIX METRO....STRONG STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY MAY SEND
SEVERAL STRONG OUTFLOWS INTO THE REGION TO HELP INITIAL ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING. EVEN THOUGH STORM MOTION MAY BE FASTER THAN WHAT
WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING THE MONSOON...CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS WELL GIVEN THE NEAR-RECORD AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA FOR THIS LATE IN JUNE. STRONG DOWNBURST/MICROBURST WINDS...LONG-
LIVED OUTFLOWS...ACCOMPANYING BLOWING DUST AND EVEN HAIL IN THE
SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

WITH THE ADDITIONAL BOOST OF ENERGY AND POTENTIAL FROM THE LONG-
TRAVELING TX MCV...STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST TOWARDS THE
CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA LATER OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL GREAT THE AREA BY THE
AM...KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE WARMSIDE BUT ALSO
INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND OPEN
TO JULY WITH AT LEAST NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.

500MB HIGH BEGINS TO REPOSITION BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO TO
ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN
AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY MODIFIES OVER
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

STORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY NIBBLED AT METRO PHOENIX WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BEFORE 10Z BUT MAY
NEED TO REMOVE VCTS FROM TAFS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. IF ANY STORMS
MANAGE TO FORM THEY WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND
BE LONG LIVED. WHAT STARTS OFF AS A WEAK STORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VERY STRONG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST
STARTING AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z. WILL TAKE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY
COMPONENTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MEYERS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 302157
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE
MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MCVS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST CA...
RAPIDLY COOLING CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE RIM AND FAIRLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE LOWER AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. AM CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASED MOISTURE POOL HAS ALLOWED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE ON
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE...WITH AREA TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK FOR RADAR COVERAGE TO
RAPIDLY FILL IN OVER THE RIM THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DROP OUTFLOWS
AND RESULTING STORM BUILD-UPS INTO THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS WHILE
STORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY CLEARS TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA.

AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE OBSERVED WINDS AND A SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDING FROM KTWC TODAY ALL INDICATE STILL FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR
AND ENHANCED STEERING FLOW AFTN/EVENING PROFILE AVAILABLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ AND INTO EASTERN AZ. MODEL FCSTS CONTINUE FAVORABLE ML
SHEAR...BALLPARK 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SE/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLENDED TPW PWATS AND GPS IPW
INDICATE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH VALUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF AZ AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT MCV JUST OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL. FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION STILL PAINT FAIRLY HEALTH ML AND MU CAPES AMOUNTS ANYWHERE
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS
COMING TOGETHER TO SAY POTENTIAL IS HIGH...AND CONCERN AS WELL...FOR
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING
OVER THE PHOENIX METRO....STRONG STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY MAY SEND
SEVERAL STRONG OUTFLOWS INTO THE REGION TO HELP INITIAL ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING. EVEN THOUGH STORM MOTION MAY BE FASTER THAN WHAT
WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING THE MONSOON...CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS WELL GIVEN THE NEAR-RECORD AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA FOR THIS LATE IN JUNE. STRONG DOWNBURST/MICROBURST WINDS...LONG-
LIVED OUTFLOWS...ACCOMPANYING BLOWING DUST AND EVEN HAIL IN THE
SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

WITH THE ADDITIONAL BOOST OF ENERGY AND POTENTIAL FROM THE LONG-
TRAVELING TX MCV...STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST TOWARDS THE
CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA LATER OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL GREAT THE AREA BY THE
AM...KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE WARMSIDE BUT ALSO
INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND OPEN
TO JULY WITH AT LEAST NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.

500MB HIGH BEGINS TO REPOSITION BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO TO
ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN
AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY MODIFIES OVER
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

ACTIVE NIGHT IS EXPECTED CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...AS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FIELD WILL ADVECT STORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING. DUE TO HIGH AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS STRONGER THEN NORMAL WINDS
ALOFT...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME WELL ORGANIZED AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AFFECTING ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. AT THE MOMENT...DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING...WILL
SIMPLY MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS AFTER ABOUT 03Z AND KEEP THIS IN
PAST MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE DOWNPLAYED BUT COULD BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY AT ANY TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM UPDATES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE TAFS TO ADDRESS GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AS WELL AS TSRA
AT THE AIRPORTS. CIGS LIKELY TO STAY AOA 8K FEET OVERNIGHT UNLESS
VERY HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS AT THE TERMINAL. BROKEN MID DECKS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST
BASES ABOVE 9K FEET.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF CLOUDS OR WEATHER AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY MENTION VCSH AT KBLH AND KIPL AFTER
09Z...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THUNDER MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. FOR
THE MOST PART CIGS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 8K FEET UNLESS HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...AND PERSISTS AT THE
TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
MAY GET GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING WITH SPEEDS ABOVE 15KT.
WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT KIPL MOSTLY LESS THAN 12KTS.

WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KBLH...AND
FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MEYERS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301713
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1012 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERN CONUS WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE BROAD RIDGE
CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CARVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH ML/HL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO SOUTHERN
CA/GREAT BASIN AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER PORTIONS OF TX/NM. BACK
CLOSER TO HOME...CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY AND NORTHERN SONORA THIS AM...ALONG A WEAK INVERTED WAVE
FEATURE AND AREA OF ENHANCED STEERING FLOW TRACKING ALONG THE INTL
BORDER. FLOW. THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT HAVE SPREAD A HEALTHY
LL MOISTURE INCREASE INTO THE YUMA AND IMPERIAL VALLEY AREAS WITH
DEWPOINTS PUSHING 70F THIS MORNING. FIRST UPDATE FOR THE GRIDS THIS
AM WAS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ
PUSHING INTO BEYOND THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE EXCESS LL/ML MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED STORM THREATS WITH THE
STRONGER...MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.

12Z RAOBS PAINT AN INTERESTING LATE JUNE PICTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...AS 850MB DEWPOINTS ARE PUSHING 10C...KTWC HAS A 9C 700MB
DEWPOINT...AND WINDS THROUGH THE 700-500MB STEERING LEVELS VARY FROM
20 TO 40KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. MORNING SOUNDINGS
AROUND THE AREA TOUT ML CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
MUCAPES PUSHING 1500 J/KG...WHICH EVENTUALLY MAY MIX DOWN AROUND
1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WV
LOOPS FROM ACROSS WEST TX THIS MORNING INDICATE SOME SORT OF ML VORT
MAX/MCV QUICKLY HEADING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CHIHUAHUA THIS AM.
CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE HAS IT SINKING FURTHER INTO OLD
MEXICO TODAY...BUT WITH DECENT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW...IT COULD
CLIP PART OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND CERTAINLY STAND TO HELP
INITIATE AND PROLONG ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD/HIGHER TERRAIN PORTION OF THE STATE.

UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS INCLUDED FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ELEVATING CHANCES OVER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TO INCLUDE CHANCE MENTIONING FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...FOR THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE CONDITIONS MAY
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM LAST EVENING...WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS FROM PERIPHERAL STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS TO
HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY LATER INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 328 AM MST/PDT/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE 594-596DM
ANTICYCLONE OVER UTAH TODAY...THE CENTER ELONGATING AND THE AXIS
TAKING ON A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER NEVADA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS...A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...
RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY
MODIFIES OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR CNTRL AZ TERMINALS. IN THE NEAR
TERM...ONLY SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ELY WINDS SWITCHING TO WLY BY
MID/LATE MORNING WILL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. ENOUGH MODEL
EVIDENCE EXITS TO INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION LATE THIS EVENING. MUCH
LIKE LAST NIGHT...COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED TO NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT A SPECIFIC TERMINAL LOCATION...BUT POSSIBLY APPROACHES AND
DEPARTURE ROUTES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF SHRA
AND TSRA LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED MORNING) WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
FROM ARIZONA. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AND AND STORMS DECAYING SUCH
THAT ONLY A VCSH INTRODUCTION WAS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT S/SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
OFFER GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301713
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1012 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERN CONUS WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE BROAD RIDGE
CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CARVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH ML/HL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO SOUTHERN
CA/GREAT BASIN AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER PORTIONS OF TX/NM. BACK
CLOSER TO HOME...CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY AND NORTHERN SONORA THIS AM...ALONG A WEAK INVERTED WAVE
FEATURE AND AREA OF ENHANCED STEERING FLOW TRACKING ALONG THE INTL
BORDER. FLOW. THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT HAVE SPREAD A HEALTHY
LL MOISTURE INCREASE INTO THE YUMA AND IMPERIAL VALLEY AREAS WITH
DEWPOINTS PUSHING 70F THIS MORNING. FIRST UPDATE FOR THE GRIDS THIS
AM WAS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ
PUSHING INTO BEYOND THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE EXCESS LL/ML MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED STORM THREATS WITH THE
STRONGER...MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.

12Z RAOBS PAINT AN INTERESTING LATE JUNE PICTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...AS 850MB DEWPOINTS ARE PUSHING 10C...KTWC HAS A 9C 700MB
DEWPOINT...AND WINDS THROUGH THE 700-500MB STEERING LEVELS VARY FROM
20 TO 40KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. MORNING SOUNDINGS
AROUND THE AREA TOUT ML CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
MUCAPES PUSHING 1500 J/KG...WHICH EVENTUALLY MAY MIX DOWN AROUND
1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WV
LOOPS FROM ACROSS WEST TX THIS MORNING INDICATE SOME SORT OF ML VORT
MAX/MCV QUICKLY HEADING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CHIHUAHUA THIS AM.
CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE HAS IT SINKING FURTHER INTO OLD
MEXICO TODAY...BUT WITH DECENT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW...IT COULD
CLIP PART OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND CERTAINLY STAND TO HELP
INITIATE AND PROLONG ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD/HIGHER TERRAIN PORTION OF THE STATE.

UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS INCLUDED FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ELEVATING CHANCES OVER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TO INCLUDE CHANCE MENTIONING FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...FOR THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE CONDITIONS MAY
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM LAST EVENING...WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS FROM PERIPHERAL STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS TO
HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY LATER INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 328 AM MST/PDT/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE 594-596DM
ANTICYCLONE OVER UTAH TODAY...THE CENTER ELONGATING AND THE AXIS
TAKING ON A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER NEVADA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS...A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...
RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY
MODIFIES OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR CNTRL AZ TERMINALS. IN THE NEAR
TERM...ONLY SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ELY WINDS SWITCHING TO WLY BY
MID/LATE MORNING WILL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. ENOUGH MODEL
EVIDENCE EXITS TO INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION LATE THIS EVENING. MUCH
LIKE LAST NIGHT...COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED TO NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT A SPECIFIC TERMINAL LOCATION...BUT POSSIBLY APPROACHES AND
DEPARTURE ROUTES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF SHRA
AND TSRA LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED MORNING) WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
FROM ARIZONA. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AND AND STORMS DECAYING SUCH
THAT ONLY A VCSH INTRODUCTION WAS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT S/SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
OFFER GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301713
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1012 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERN CONUS WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE BROAD RIDGE
CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CARVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH ML/HL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO SOUTHERN
CA/GREAT BASIN AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER PORTIONS OF TX/NM. BACK
CLOSER TO HOME...CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY AND NORTHERN SONORA THIS AM...ALONG A WEAK INVERTED WAVE
FEATURE AND AREA OF ENHANCED STEERING FLOW TRACKING ALONG THE INTL
BORDER. FLOW. THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT HAVE SPREAD A HEALTHY
LL MOISTURE INCREASE INTO THE YUMA AND IMPERIAL VALLEY AREAS WITH
DEWPOINTS PUSHING 70F THIS MORNING. FIRST UPDATE FOR THE GRIDS THIS
AM WAS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ
PUSHING INTO BEYOND THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE EXCESS LL/ML MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED STORM THREATS WITH THE
STRONGER...MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.

12Z RAOBS PAINT AN INTERESTING LATE JUNE PICTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...AS 850MB DEWPOINTS ARE PUSHING 10C...KTWC HAS A 9C 700MB
DEWPOINT...AND WINDS THROUGH THE 700-500MB STEERING LEVELS VARY FROM
20 TO 40KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. MORNING SOUNDINGS
AROUND THE AREA TOUT ML CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
MUCAPES PUSHING 1500 J/KG...WHICH EVENTUALLY MAY MIX DOWN AROUND
1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WV
LOOPS FROM ACROSS WEST TX THIS MORNING INDICATE SOME SORT OF ML VORT
MAX/MCV QUICKLY HEADING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CHIHUAHUA THIS AM.
CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE HAS IT SINKING FURTHER INTO OLD
MEXICO TODAY...BUT WITH DECENT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW...IT COULD
CLIP PART OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND CERTAINLY STAND TO HELP
INITIATE AND PROLONG ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD/HIGHER TERRAIN PORTION OF THE STATE.

UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS INCLUDED FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ELEVATING CHANCES OVER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TO INCLUDE CHANCE MENTIONING FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...FOR THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE CONDITIONS MAY
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM LAST EVENING...WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS FROM PERIPHERAL STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS TO
HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY LATER INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 328 AM MST/PDT/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE 594-596DM
ANTICYCLONE OVER UTAH TODAY...THE CENTER ELONGATING AND THE AXIS
TAKING ON A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER NEVADA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS...A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...
RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY
MODIFIES OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR CNTRL AZ TERMINALS. IN THE NEAR
TERM...ONLY SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ELY WINDS SWITCHING TO WLY BY
MID/LATE MORNING WILL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. ENOUGH MODEL
EVIDENCE EXITS TO INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION LATE THIS EVENING. MUCH
LIKE LAST NIGHT...COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED TO NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT A SPECIFIC TERMINAL LOCATION...BUT POSSIBLY APPROACHES AND
DEPARTURE ROUTES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF SHRA
AND TSRA LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED MORNING) WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
FROM ARIZONA. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AND AND STORMS DECAYING SUCH
THAT ONLY A VCSH INTRODUCTION WAS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT S/SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
OFFER GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 301713
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1012 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERN CONUS WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE BROAD RIDGE
CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CARVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH ML/HL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO SOUTHERN
CA/GREAT BASIN AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER PORTIONS OF TX/NM. BACK
CLOSER TO HOME...CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY AND NORTHERN SONORA THIS AM...ALONG A WEAK INVERTED WAVE
FEATURE AND AREA OF ENHANCED STEERING FLOW TRACKING ALONG THE INTL
BORDER. FLOW. THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT HAVE SPREAD A HEALTHY
LL MOISTURE INCREASE INTO THE YUMA AND IMPERIAL VALLEY AREAS WITH
DEWPOINTS PUSHING 70F THIS MORNING. FIRST UPDATE FOR THE GRIDS THIS
AM WAS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ
PUSHING INTO BEYOND THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE EXCESS LL/ML MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED STORM THREATS WITH THE
STRONGER...MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.

12Z RAOBS PAINT AN INTERESTING LATE JUNE PICTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...AS 850MB DEWPOINTS ARE PUSHING 10C...KTWC HAS A 9C 700MB
DEWPOINT...AND WINDS THROUGH THE 700-500MB STEERING LEVELS VARY FROM
20 TO 40KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. MORNING SOUNDINGS
AROUND THE AREA TOUT ML CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
MUCAPES PUSHING 1500 J/KG...WHICH EVENTUALLY MAY MIX DOWN AROUND
1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WV
LOOPS FROM ACROSS WEST TX THIS MORNING INDICATE SOME SORT OF ML VORT
MAX/MCV QUICKLY HEADING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CHIHUAHUA THIS AM.
CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE HAS IT SINKING FURTHER INTO OLD
MEXICO TODAY...BUT WITH DECENT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW...IT COULD
CLIP PART OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND CERTAINLY STAND TO HELP
INITIATE AND PROLONG ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD/HIGHER TERRAIN PORTION OF THE STATE.

UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS INCLUDED FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ELEVATING CHANCES OVER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TO INCLUDE CHANCE MENTIONING FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...FOR THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE CONDITIONS MAY
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM LAST EVENING...WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS FROM PERIPHERAL STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS TO
HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY LATER INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 328 AM MST/PDT/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE 594-596DM
ANTICYCLONE OVER UTAH TODAY...THE CENTER ELONGATING AND THE AXIS
TAKING ON A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER NEVADA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS...A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...
RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY
MODIFIES OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR CNTRL AZ TERMINALS. IN THE NEAR
TERM...ONLY SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ELY WINDS SWITCHING TO WLY BY
MID/LATE MORNING WILL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. ENOUGH MODEL
EVIDENCE EXITS TO INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION LATE THIS EVENING. MUCH
LIKE LAST NIGHT...COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED TO NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT A SPECIFIC TERMINAL LOCATION...BUT POSSIBLY APPROACHES AND
DEPARTURE ROUTES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF SHRA
AND TSRA LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED MORNING) WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
FROM ARIZONA. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AND AND STORMS DECAYING SUCH
THAT ONLY A VCSH INTRODUCTION WAS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT S/SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
OFFER GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 301141
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT
REMAIN OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A RESULT OF
SEVERAL SMALLER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT FORMED OVER ARIZONA
YESTERDAY EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CONTINUING TO BREW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE OVER SONORA MEXICO BY SUNRISE.
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS ARE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...ALL DUE TO
RAIN COOLED OUTFLOWS AND PRECIPITATION.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE 594-596DM
ANTICYCLONE OVER UTAH TODAY...THE CENTER ELONGATING AND THE AXIS
TAKING ON A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER NEVADA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS...A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...
RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY
MODIFIES OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR CNTRL AZ TERMINALS. IN THE NEAR
TERM...ONLY SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ELY WINDS SWITCHING TO WLY BY
MID/LATE MORNING WILL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. ENOUGH MODEL
EVIDENCE EXITS TO INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION LATE THIS EVENING. MUCH
LIKE LAST NIGHT...COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED TO NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT A SPECIFIC TERMINAL LOCATION...BUT POSSIBLY APPROACHES AND
DEPARTURE ROUTES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF SHRA
AND TSRA LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED MORNING) WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
FROM ARIZONA. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AND AND STORMS DECAYING SUCH
THAT ONLY A VCSH INTRODUCTION WAS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT S/SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
OFFER GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301141
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT
REMAIN OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A RESULT OF
SEVERAL SMALLER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT FORMED OVER ARIZONA
YESTERDAY EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CONTINUING TO BREW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE OVER SONORA MEXICO BY SUNRISE.
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS ARE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...ALL DUE TO
RAIN COOLED OUTFLOWS AND PRECIPITATION.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE 594-596DM
ANTICYCLONE OVER UTAH TODAY...THE CENTER ELONGATING AND THE AXIS
TAKING ON A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER NEVADA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS...A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...
RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY
MODIFIES OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR CNTRL AZ TERMINALS. IN THE NEAR
TERM...ONLY SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ELY WINDS SWITCHING TO WLY BY
MID/LATE MORNING WILL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. ENOUGH MODEL
EVIDENCE EXITS TO INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION LATE THIS EVENING. MUCH
LIKE LAST NIGHT...COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED TO NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT A SPECIFIC TERMINAL LOCATION...BUT POSSIBLY APPROACHES AND
DEPARTURE ROUTES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF SHRA
AND TSRA LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED MORNING) WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
FROM ARIZONA. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AND AND STORMS DECAYING SUCH
THAT ONLY A VCSH INTRODUCTION WAS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT S/SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
OFFER GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 301141
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT
REMAIN OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A RESULT OF
SEVERAL SMALLER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT FORMED OVER ARIZONA
YESTERDAY EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CONTINUING TO BREW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE OVER SONORA MEXICO BY SUNRISE.
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS ARE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...ALL DUE TO
RAIN COOLED OUTFLOWS AND PRECIPITATION.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE 594-596DM
ANTICYCLONE OVER UTAH TODAY...THE CENTER ELONGATING AND THE AXIS
TAKING ON A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER NEVADA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS...A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...
RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY
MODIFIES OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR CNTRL AZ TERMINALS. IN THE NEAR
TERM...ONLY SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ELY WINDS SWITCHING TO WLY BY
MID/LATE MORNING WILL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. ENOUGH MODEL
EVIDENCE EXITS TO INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION LATE THIS EVENING. MUCH
LIKE LAST NIGHT...COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED TO NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT A SPECIFIC TERMINAL LOCATION...BUT POSSIBLY APPROACHES AND
DEPARTURE ROUTES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF SHRA
AND TSRA LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED MORNING) WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
FROM ARIZONA. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AND AND STORMS DECAYING SUCH
THAT ONLY A VCSH INTRODUCTION WAS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT S/SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
OFFER GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301141
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT
REMAIN OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A RESULT OF
SEVERAL SMALLER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT FORMED OVER ARIZONA
YESTERDAY EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CONTINUING TO BREW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE OVER SONORA MEXICO BY SUNRISE.
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS ARE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...ALL DUE TO
RAIN COOLED OUTFLOWS AND PRECIPITATION.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE 594-596DM
ANTICYCLONE OVER UTAH TODAY...THE CENTER ELONGATING AND THE AXIS
TAKING ON A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER NEVADA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS...A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...
RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY
MODIFIES OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR CNTRL AZ TERMINALS. IN THE NEAR
TERM...ONLY SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ELY WINDS SWITCHING TO WLY BY
MID/LATE MORNING WILL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. ENOUGH MODEL
EVIDENCE EXITS TO INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION LATE THIS EVENING. MUCH
LIKE LAST NIGHT...COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED TO NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT A SPECIFIC TERMINAL LOCATION...BUT POSSIBLY APPROACHES AND
DEPARTURE ROUTES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF SHRA
AND TSRA LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED MORNING) WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
FROM ARIZONA. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AND AND STORMS DECAYING SUCH
THAT ONLY A VCSH INTRODUCTION WAS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT S/SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
OFFER GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 301031
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
328 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT
REMAIN OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A RESULT OF
SEVERAL SMALLER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT FORMED OVER ARIZONA
YESTERDAY EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CONTINUING TO BREW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE OVER SONORA MEXICO BY SUNRISE.
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS ARE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...ALL DUE TO
RAIN COOLED OUTFLOWS AND PRECIPITATION.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE 594-596DM
ANTICYCLONE OVER UTAH TODAY...THE CENTER ELONGATING AND THE AXIS
TAKING ON A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER NEVADA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS...A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...
RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY
MODIFIES OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STORMS FIRING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING THOSE STORMS INTO THE NRN/ERN FRINGES OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A MITIGATING FACTOR
IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOCATED OVER SERN/ECNTRL AZ WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AND AS SUCH WE WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE AREA TAFS. BLOWING
DUST FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IS ALSO A THREAT BUT THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM TAF UPDATES SHOULD THE DUST MATERIALIZE AND
THREATEN TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
LIMIT ANY CIGS TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...120K FEET AND UP.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AFTER 09Z OR SO. OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE
EXPECTED ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THEN MOVING WITH THE ELY STEERING FLOW AND INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR
STORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS NOT ZERO...BUT WAY TOO LOW
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KBLH...AND
FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301031
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
328 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT
REMAIN OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A RESULT OF
SEVERAL SMALLER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT FORMED OVER ARIZONA
YESTERDAY EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CONTINUING TO BREW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE OVER SONORA MEXICO BY SUNRISE.
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS ARE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...ALL DUE TO
RAIN COOLED OUTFLOWS AND PRECIPITATION.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE 594-596DM
ANTICYCLONE OVER UTAH TODAY...THE CENTER ELONGATING AND THE AXIS
TAKING ON A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER NEVADA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS...A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...
RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY
MODIFIES OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STORMS FIRING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING THOSE STORMS INTO THE NRN/ERN FRINGES OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A MITIGATING FACTOR
IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOCATED OVER SERN/ECNTRL AZ WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AND AS SUCH WE WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE AREA TAFS. BLOWING
DUST FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IS ALSO A THREAT BUT THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM TAF UPDATES SHOULD THE DUST MATERIALIZE AND
THREATEN TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
LIMIT ANY CIGS TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...120K FEET AND UP.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AFTER 09Z OR SO. OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE
EXPECTED ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THEN MOVING WITH THE ELY STEERING FLOW AND INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR
STORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS NOT ZERO...BUT WAY TOO LOW
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KBLH...AND
FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 300420
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY BLOWING DUST ACROSS PINAL
COUNTY AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR WICKENBURG. THE STORM NEAR
WICKENBURG PRODUCED WINDS ABOVE 65 MPH ALONG WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOW HAS INCREASED IN AREA WASHES
AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID NOT CAPTURE THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY THIS EVENING. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MARICOPA AND LA PAZ COUNTIES
TONIGHT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD MLCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG
WITH ONLY WEAK INHIBITION AND POPS WILL BE INCREASED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS).
CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE POPS GRADUALLY RAMPING UP THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH WEDNESDAY THE PEAK CHANCES...30 PERCENT OR LESS...AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO THE REGION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
TILT BACK TOWARDS THE PAC NW. MODEL LL/ML CAPES OF 700-1100 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE 200/300MB RIDGE
CENTERS BEGIN TO CO-LOCATE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE
ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD
OVERNIGHTS.

THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STORMS FIRING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING THOSE STORMS INTO THE NRN/ERN FRINGES OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A MITIGATING FACTOR
IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOCATED OVER SERN/ECNTRL AZ WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AND AS SUCH WE WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE AREA TAFS. BLOWING
DUST FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IS ALSO A THREAT BUT THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM TAF UPDATES SHOULD THE DUST MATERIALIZE AND
THREATEN TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
LIMIT ANY CIGS TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...120K FEET AND UP.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AFTER 09Z OR SO. OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE
EXPECTED ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THEN MOVING WITH THE ELY STEERING FLOW AND INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR
STORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS NOT ZERO...BUT WAY TOO LOW
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KBLH...AND
FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 300420
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY BLOWING DUST ACROSS PINAL
COUNTY AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR WICKENBURG. THE STORM NEAR
WICKENBURG PRODUCED WINDS ABOVE 65 MPH ALONG WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOW HAS INCREASED IN AREA WASHES
AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID NOT CAPTURE THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY THIS EVENING. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MARICOPA AND LA PAZ COUNTIES
TONIGHT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD MLCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG
WITH ONLY WEAK INHIBITION AND POPS WILL BE INCREASED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS).
CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE POPS GRADUALLY RAMPING UP THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH WEDNESDAY THE PEAK CHANCES...30 PERCENT OR LESS...AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO THE REGION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
TILT BACK TOWARDS THE PAC NW. MODEL LL/ML CAPES OF 700-1100 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE 200/300MB RIDGE
CENTERS BEGIN TO CO-LOCATE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE
ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD
OVERNIGHTS.

THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STORMS FIRING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING THOSE STORMS INTO THE NRN/ERN FRINGES OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A MITIGATING FACTOR
IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOCATED OVER SERN/ECNTRL AZ WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AND AS SUCH WE WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE AREA TAFS. BLOWING
DUST FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IS ALSO A THREAT BUT THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM TAF UPDATES SHOULD THE DUST MATERIALIZE AND
THREATEN TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
LIMIT ANY CIGS TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...120K FEET AND UP.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AFTER 09Z OR SO. OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE
EXPECTED ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THEN MOVING WITH THE ELY STEERING FLOW AND INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR
STORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS NOT ZERO...BUT WAY TOO LOW
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KBLH...AND
FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 292119
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
218 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH-TERRAIN CONVECTION BEGAN FIRING JUST AFTER NOON MST TODAY...AS
WITH THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE WEEKEND. LIGHTNING AND REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS INDICATE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE WHITES AND SOUTHERN RIM NOT
TERRIBLY ORGANIZED OR LONG LASTING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. DRIER
SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY INTO EASTERN AZ...WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR PORTION OF GILA COUNTY LOWERING INTO THE 40S
CURRENTLY. ML THRU UL FLOW RUNNING EASTERLY THROUGH THE
PROFILE...WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY HEADINGS AT 700MB. WITH THE SLIGHT
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING FACTOR...CHANCES
STILL LOOKING SLIM FOR STORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS PROG MIXING
RATIOS DROPPING BELOW 10 G/KG AND CAPES STRUGGLING AROUND 500 J/KG
OVER THE PHOENIX AREA DURING THE EVENING. HI-RES FCSTS POINT TO LONG
TRAVELING OUTFLOW PNTL...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE DEEP
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE...INITIATING SOMEWHERE ACROSS PIMA
COUNTY AND HEADING NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY EVENING. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST COVERAGE WAS ALREADY IN THE WEATHER GRIDS ACROSS SW
MARICOPA AND WESTERN PINAL COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING...FEEL FOR NOW
THAT COVERS THE THREAT UNTIL RADAR TRENDS CAN CONSOLIDATE INTO
SOMETHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL.

UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL INDICATES SOME BOUNDARY...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY DIFFUSED OR WEAKER ON THE AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A
N-S ORIENTATED 50KT 300MB JET ON THE EASTERN RIDGE PERIPHERY OVER NE
NM/E CO. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING...PERSISTING ATLEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CONCEPTUALLY...THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST EVENING...WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION SUCH AS A POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN DESERTS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS).
CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE POPS GRADUALLY RAMPING UP THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH WEDNESDAY THE PEAK CHANCES...30 PERCENT OR LESS...AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO THE REGION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO TILT BACK TOWARDS THE PAC NW. MODEL LL/ML CAPES OF 700-1100 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE 200/300MB RIDGE
CENTERS BEGIN TO CO-LOCATE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON
THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD
OVERNIGHTS.

THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STORMS FIRING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING THOSE STORMS INTO THE NRN/ERN FRINGES OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A MITIGATING FACTOR
IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOCATED OVER SERN/ECNTRL AZ WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AND AS SUCH WE WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE AREA TAFS. BLOWING
DUST FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IS ALSO A THREAT BUT THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM TAF UPDATES SHOULD THE DUST MATERIALIZE AND
THREATEN TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
LIMIT ANY CIGS TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...120K FEET AND UP.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AFTER 09Z OR SO. OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE
EXPECTED ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THEN MOVING WITH THE ELY STEERING FLOW AND INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR
STORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS NOT ZERO...BUT WAY TOO LOW
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KBLH...AND
FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 292119
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
218 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH-TERRAIN CONVECTION BEGAN FIRING JUST AFTER NOON MST TODAY...AS
WITH THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE WEEKEND. LIGHTNING AND REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS INDICATE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE WHITES AND SOUTHERN RIM NOT
TERRIBLY ORGANIZED OR LONG LASTING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. DRIER
SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY INTO EASTERN AZ...WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR PORTION OF GILA COUNTY LOWERING INTO THE 40S
CURRENTLY. ML THRU UL FLOW RUNNING EASTERLY THROUGH THE
PROFILE...WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY HEADINGS AT 700MB. WITH THE SLIGHT
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING FACTOR...CHANCES
STILL LOOKING SLIM FOR STORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS PROG MIXING
RATIOS DROPPING BELOW 10 G/KG AND CAPES STRUGGLING AROUND 500 J/KG
OVER THE PHOENIX AREA DURING THE EVENING. HI-RES FCSTS POINT TO LONG
TRAVELING OUTFLOW PNTL...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE DEEP
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE...INITIATING SOMEWHERE ACROSS PIMA
COUNTY AND HEADING NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY EVENING. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST COVERAGE WAS ALREADY IN THE WEATHER GRIDS ACROSS SW
MARICOPA AND WESTERN PINAL COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING...FEEL FOR NOW
THAT COVERS THE THREAT UNTIL RADAR TRENDS CAN CONSOLIDATE INTO
SOMETHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL.

UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL INDICATES SOME BOUNDARY...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY DIFFUSED OR WEAKER ON THE AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A
N-S ORIENTATED 50KT 300MB JET ON THE EASTERN RIDGE PERIPHERY OVER NE
NM/E CO. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING...PERSISTING ATLEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CONCEPTUALLY...THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST EVENING...WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION SUCH AS A POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN DESERTS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS).
CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE POPS GRADUALLY RAMPING UP THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH WEDNESDAY THE PEAK CHANCES...30 PERCENT OR LESS...AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO THE REGION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO TILT BACK TOWARDS THE PAC NW. MODEL LL/ML CAPES OF 700-1100 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE 200/300MB RIDGE
CENTERS BEGIN TO CO-LOCATE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON
THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD
OVERNIGHTS.

THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STORMS FIRING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING THOSE STORMS INTO THE NRN/ERN FRINGES OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A MITIGATING FACTOR
IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOCATED OVER SERN/ECNTRL AZ WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AND AS SUCH WE WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE AREA TAFS. BLOWING
DUST FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IS ALSO A THREAT BUT THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM TAF UPDATES SHOULD THE DUST MATERIALIZE AND
THREATEN TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
LIMIT ANY CIGS TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...120K FEET AND UP.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AFTER 09Z OR SO. OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE
EXPECTED ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THEN MOVING WITH THE ELY STEERING FLOW AND INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR
STORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS NOT ZERO...BUT WAY TOO LOW
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KBLH...AND
FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 291536
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
835 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER
ELEVATION DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN
TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG 595DM 500MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH...WITH LOW
590DM HEIGHTS SPANNING BACK THROUGH AZ AND NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS THIS AM INDICATE A DEEP ML/UL MOISTURE
FEED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH
SOME DRYING NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS...CHIHUAHUA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST AZ. SFC DEWPOINTS UNDERNEATH THAT OBS DRYING ON THE
SATELLITE ACTUALLY HAVE BEEN DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE
SE AZ/SW NM STATE LINE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S HOLDING OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING PHOENIX AND YUMA. WITH CONTINUED
DEFLECTION OF ANY ORGANIZED INVERTED TROUGHING AND SUBTLE DRYING OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED BY THE WAY OF
THE FORECAST RATIONALE THE MIDNIGHT CREW MENTIONED BELOW. HI-RES AND
SSEO MODEL FORECASTS STILL INDICATE THE TYPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
RIM AND SKY ISLANDS BY THE AFTERNOON WHILE PETERING OUT ANYTHING
BEFORE IT BECOMES ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS FOR THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY ACROSS PIMA COUNTY COULD
LAST INTO YUMA AND SW/FAR W MARICOPA...BUT POSSIBLY EVEN LESS
COVERAGE THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THAT PAST FEW AFTERNOONS.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BOUNDARY/WAVE INTRUSION OVERNIGHT COULD STILL
FIRE OFF SOME LIMITED CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A TREND
THE UA WRFS SHOW THIS AM. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
FEATURE COULD BE SPANNING SW CO JUST AT THE FOUR CORNERS. WILL SEE
WHAT 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO WITH THAT BOUNDARY. SHORT TERM
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO PLANS FOR UPDATES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 300 AM MST/PDT/...
A STAGNANT HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH MEAN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SET OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND A 595DM ANTI-CYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NRN UTAH. THIS PLACES MUCH OF ARIZONA WITHIN DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW STEERING DAILY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OF NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN ARIZONA TOWARDS LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST. WHILE
KTWC SOUNDING PWAT DATA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THE END OF JUNE...MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIOS
AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO OF ONLY 9-10 G/KG COMBINED WITH WARM
ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES HAVE LARGELY INHIBITED ANY OF THESE STORMS
FROM SURVIVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ONLY RESULTING IN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

WITH THIS PATTERN BASICALLY STUCK IN PLACE...ITS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE
FOR MUCH ENHANCED ACTIVITY VERSUS PERSISTENCE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THOUGH CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE LESS THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN A SOURCE REGION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HAS ACTUALLY BEEN LOWERING RECENTLY. AND
WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED EASTERLY WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...ITS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT VERY
BULLISH ON ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
TARGET CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM AND GILA COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF WRN PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING ANY ACTUAL ORGANIZED
SHOWERS INTO THE PHOENIX METRO TODAY LOOKS DOUBTFUL...WITH OUTFLOWS
AND ISOLD SHOWERS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SW MARICOPA COUNTY/ERN YUMA
COUNTY (I.E. ACTIVITY EVEN LESS THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS).

SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST A
QUASI-BACKDOOR FRONT OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE PROPAGATING FROM
NEW MEXICO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHT WHERE A ROGUE
STORM OR TWO MATERIALIZES WITHIN AN AREA OF LOCALIZED MIDLEVEL
SATURATION AND ELEVATED MUCAPE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME TARGETED
MODEST POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS)...THOUGH
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERWHELMING AND DOES NOT
YET JUSTIFY MAJOR INCREASES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DEBRIS CLOUDS AOA 12KFT WILL THIN OUT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS
REBUILDING AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FORMING EAST
OF PHOENIX. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS
...WHILE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOWS WILL BRING STORMS OFF MOUNTAINS
AND MOVE THEM WEST INTO THE LOWER DESERTS AFTER 23Z...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND BLOWING DUST TO IMPACT
KPHX/KIWA/KSDL THROUGH 05Z TUESDAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS NEAR KBLH AND KIPL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE FROM
EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY.
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20 PERCENT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS
EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 291536
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
835 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER
ELEVATION DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN
TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG 595DM 500MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH...WITH LOW
590DM HEIGHTS SPANNING BACK THROUGH AZ AND NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS THIS AM INDICATE A DEEP ML/UL MOISTURE
FEED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH
SOME DRYING NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS...CHIHUAHUA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST AZ. SFC DEWPOINTS UNDERNEATH THAT OBS DRYING ON THE
SATELLITE ACTUALLY HAVE BEEN DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE
SE AZ/SW NM STATE LINE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S HOLDING OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING PHOENIX AND YUMA. WITH CONTINUED
DEFLECTION OF ANY ORGANIZED INVERTED TROUGHING AND SUBTLE DRYING OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED BY THE WAY OF
THE FORECAST RATIONALE THE MIDNIGHT CREW MENTIONED BELOW. HI-RES AND
SSEO MODEL FORECASTS STILL INDICATE THE TYPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
RIM AND SKY ISLANDS BY THE AFTERNOON WHILE PETERING OUT ANYTHING
BEFORE IT BECOMES ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS FOR THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY ACROSS PIMA COUNTY COULD
LAST INTO YUMA AND SW/FAR W MARICOPA...BUT POSSIBLY EVEN LESS
COVERAGE THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THAT PAST FEW AFTERNOONS.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BOUNDARY/WAVE INTRUSION OVERNIGHT COULD STILL
FIRE OFF SOME LIMITED CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A TREND
THE UA WRFS SHOW THIS AM. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
FEATURE COULD BE SPANNING SW CO JUST AT THE FOUR CORNERS. WILL SEE
WHAT 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO WITH THAT BOUNDARY. SHORT TERM
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO PLANS FOR UPDATES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 300 AM MST/PDT/...
A STAGNANT HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH MEAN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SET OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND A 595DM ANTI-CYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NRN UTAH. THIS PLACES MUCH OF ARIZONA WITHIN DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW STEERING DAILY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OF NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN ARIZONA TOWARDS LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST. WHILE
KTWC SOUNDING PWAT DATA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THE END OF JUNE...MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIOS
AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO OF ONLY 9-10 G/KG COMBINED WITH WARM
ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES HAVE LARGELY INHIBITED ANY OF THESE STORMS
FROM SURVIVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ONLY RESULTING IN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

WITH THIS PATTERN BASICALLY STUCK IN PLACE...ITS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE
FOR MUCH ENHANCED ACTIVITY VERSUS PERSISTENCE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THOUGH CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE LESS THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN A SOURCE REGION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HAS ACTUALLY BEEN LOWERING RECENTLY. AND
WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED EASTERLY WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...ITS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT VERY
BULLISH ON ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
TARGET CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM AND GILA COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF WRN PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING ANY ACTUAL ORGANIZED
SHOWERS INTO THE PHOENIX METRO TODAY LOOKS DOUBTFUL...WITH OUTFLOWS
AND ISOLD SHOWERS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SW MARICOPA COUNTY/ERN YUMA
COUNTY (I.E. ACTIVITY EVEN LESS THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS).

SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST A
QUASI-BACKDOOR FRONT OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE PROPAGATING FROM
NEW MEXICO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHT WHERE A ROGUE
STORM OR TWO MATERIALIZES WITHIN AN AREA OF LOCALIZED MIDLEVEL
SATURATION AND ELEVATED MUCAPE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME TARGETED
MODEST POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS)...THOUGH
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERWHELMING AND DOES NOT
YET JUSTIFY MAJOR INCREASES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DEBRIS CLOUDS AOA 12KFT WILL THIN OUT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS
REBUILDING AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FORMING EAST
OF PHOENIX. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS
...WHILE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOWS WILL BRING STORMS OFF MOUNTAINS
AND MOVE THEM WEST INTO THE LOWER DESERTS AFTER 23Z...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND BLOWING DUST TO IMPACT
KPHX/KIWA/KSDL THROUGH 05Z TUESDAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS NEAR KBLH AND KIPL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE FROM
EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY.
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20 PERCENT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS
EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 291238 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
537 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER
ELEVATION DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN
TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STAGNANT HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH MEAN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SET OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND A 595DM ANTI-CYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NRN UTAH. THIS PLACES MUCH OF ARIZONA WITHIN DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW STEERING DAILY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OF NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN ARIZONA TOWARDS LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST. WHILE
KTWC SOUNDING PWAT DATA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THE END OF JUNE...MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIOS
AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO OF ONLY 9-10 G/KG COMBINED WITH WARM
ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES HAVE LARGELY INHIBITED ANY OF THESE STORMS
FROM SURVIVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ONLY RESULTING IN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

WITH THIS PATTERN BASICALLY STUCK IN PLACE...ITS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE
FOR MUCH ENHANCED ACTIVITY VERSUS PERSISTENCE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THOUGH CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE LESS THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN A SOURCE REGION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HAS ACTUALLY BEEN LOWERING RECENTLY. AND
WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED EASTERLY WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...ITS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT VERY
BULLISH ON ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
TARGET CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM AND GILA COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF WRN PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING ANY ACTUAL ORGANIZED
SHOWERS INTO THE PHOENIX METRO TODAY LOOKS DOUBTFUL...WITH OUTFLOWS
AND ISOLD SHOWERS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SW MARICOPA COUNTY/ERN YUMA
COUNTY (I.E. ACTIVITY EVEN LESS THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS).

SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST A
QUASI-BACKDOOR FRONT OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE PROPAGATING FROM
NEW MEXICO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHT WHERE A ROGUE
STORM OR TWO MATERIALIZES WITHIN AN AREA OF LOCALIZED MIDLEVEL
SATURATION AND ELEVATED MUCAPE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME TARGETED
MODEST POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS)...THOUGH
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERWHELMING AND DOES NOT
YET JUSTIFY MAJOR INCREASES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DEBRIS CLOUDS AOA 12KFT WILL THIN OUT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS
REBUILDING AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FORMING EAST
OF PHOENIX. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS
...WHILE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOWS WILL BRING STORMS OFF MOUNTAINS
AND MOVE THEM WEST INTO THE LOWER DESERTS AFTER 23Z...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND BLOWING DUST TO IMPACT
KPHX/KIWA/KSDL THROUGH 05Z TUESDAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS NEAR KBLH AND KIPL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE FROM
EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY.
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20 PERCENT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS
EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 291238 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
537 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER
ELEVATION DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN
TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STAGNANT HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH MEAN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SET OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND A 595DM ANTI-CYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NRN UTAH. THIS PLACES MUCH OF ARIZONA WITHIN DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW STEERING DAILY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OF NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN ARIZONA TOWARDS LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST. WHILE
KTWC SOUNDING PWAT DATA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THE END OF JUNE...MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIOS
AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO OF ONLY 9-10 G/KG COMBINED WITH WARM
ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES HAVE LARGELY INHIBITED ANY OF THESE STORMS
FROM SURVIVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ONLY RESULTING IN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

WITH THIS PATTERN BASICALLY STUCK IN PLACE...ITS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE
FOR MUCH ENHANCED ACTIVITY VERSUS PERSISTENCE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THOUGH CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE LESS THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN A SOURCE REGION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HAS ACTUALLY BEEN LOWERING RECENTLY. AND
WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED EASTERLY WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...ITS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT VERY
BULLISH ON ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
TARGET CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM AND GILA COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF WRN PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING ANY ACTUAL ORGANIZED
SHOWERS INTO THE PHOENIX METRO TODAY LOOKS DOUBTFUL...WITH OUTFLOWS
AND ISOLD SHOWERS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SW MARICOPA COUNTY/ERN YUMA
COUNTY (I.E. ACTIVITY EVEN LESS THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS).

SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST A
QUASI-BACKDOOR FRONT OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE PROPAGATING FROM
NEW MEXICO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHT WHERE A ROGUE
STORM OR TWO MATERIALIZES WITHIN AN AREA OF LOCALIZED MIDLEVEL
SATURATION AND ELEVATED MUCAPE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME TARGETED
MODEST POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS)...THOUGH
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERWHELMING AND DOES NOT
YET JUSTIFY MAJOR INCREASES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DEBRIS CLOUDS AOA 12KFT WILL THIN OUT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS
REBUILDING AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FORMING EAST
OF PHOENIX. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS
...WHILE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOWS WILL BRING STORMS OFF MOUNTAINS
AND MOVE THEM WEST INTO THE LOWER DESERTS AFTER 23Z...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND BLOWING DUST TO IMPACT
KPHX/KIWA/KSDL THROUGH 05Z TUESDAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS NEAR KBLH AND KIPL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE FROM
EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY.
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20 PERCENT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS
EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 291238 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
537 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER
ELEVATION DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN
TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STAGNANT HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH MEAN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SET OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND A 595DM ANTI-CYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NRN UTAH. THIS PLACES MUCH OF ARIZONA WITHIN DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW STEERING DAILY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OF NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN ARIZONA TOWARDS LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST. WHILE
KTWC SOUNDING PWAT DATA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THE END OF JUNE...MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIOS
AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO OF ONLY 9-10 G/KG COMBINED WITH WARM
ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES HAVE LARGELY INHIBITED ANY OF THESE STORMS
FROM SURVIVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ONLY RESULTING IN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

WITH THIS PATTERN BASICALLY STUCK IN PLACE...ITS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE
FOR MUCH ENHANCED ACTIVITY VERSUS PERSISTENCE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THOUGH CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE LESS THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN A SOURCE REGION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HAS ACTUALLY BEEN LOWERING RECENTLY. AND
WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED EASTERLY WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...ITS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT VERY
BULLISH ON ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
TARGET CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM AND GILA COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF WRN PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING ANY ACTUAL ORGANIZED
SHOWERS INTO THE PHOENIX METRO TODAY LOOKS DOUBTFUL...WITH OUTFLOWS
AND ISOLD SHOWERS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SW MARICOPA COUNTY/ERN YUMA
COUNTY (I.E. ACTIVITY EVEN LESS THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS).

SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST A
QUASI-BACKDOOR FRONT OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE PROPAGATING FROM
NEW MEXICO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHT WHERE A ROGUE
STORM OR TWO MATERIALIZES WITHIN AN AREA OF LOCALIZED MIDLEVEL
SATURATION AND ELEVATED MUCAPE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME TARGETED
MODEST POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS)...THOUGH
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERWHELMING AND DOES NOT
YET JUSTIFY MAJOR INCREASES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DEBRIS CLOUDS AOA 12KFT WILL THIN OUT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS
REBUILDING AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FORMING EAST
OF PHOENIX. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS
...WHILE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOWS WILL BRING STORMS OFF MOUNTAINS
AND MOVE THEM WEST INTO THE LOWER DESERTS AFTER 23Z...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND BLOWING DUST TO IMPACT
KPHX/KIWA/KSDL THROUGH 05Z TUESDAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS NEAR KBLH AND KIPL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE FROM
EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY.
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20 PERCENT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS
EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 291238 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
537 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER
ELEVATION DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN
TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STAGNANT HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH MEAN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SET OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND A 595DM ANTI-CYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NRN UTAH. THIS PLACES MUCH OF ARIZONA WITHIN DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW STEERING DAILY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OF NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN ARIZONA TOWARDS LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST. WHILE
KTWC SOUNDING PWAT DATA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THE END OF JUNE...MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIOS
AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO OF ONLY 9-10 G/KG COMBINED WITH WARM
ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES HAVE LARGELY INHIBITED ANY OF THESE STORMS
FROM SURVIVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ONLY RESULTING IN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

WITH THIS PATTERN BASICALLY STUCK IN PLACE...ITS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE
FOR MUCH ENHANCED ACTIVITY VERSUS PERSISTENCE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THOUGH CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE LESS THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN A SOURCE REGION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HAS ACTUALLY BEEN LOWERING RECENTLY. AND
WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED EASTERLY WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...ITS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT VERY
BULLISH ON ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
TARGET CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM AND GILA COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF WRN PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING ANY ACTUAL ORGANIZED
SHOWERS INTO THE PHOENIX METRO TODAY LOOKS DOUBTFUL...WITH OUTFLOWS
AND ISOLD SHOWERS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SW MARICOPA COUNTY/ERN YUMA
COUNTY (I.E. ACTIVITY EVEN LESS THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS).

SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST A
QUASI-BACKDOOR FRONT OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE PROPAGATING FROM
NEW MEXICO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHT WHERE A ROGUE
STORM OR TWO MATERIALIZES WITHIN AN AREA OF LOCALIZED MIDLEVEL
SATURATION AND ELEVATED MUCAPE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME TARGETED
MODEST POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS)...THOUGH
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERWHELMING AND DOES NOT
YET JUSTIFY MAJOR INCREASES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DEBRIS CLOUDS AOA 12KFT WILL THIN OUT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS
REBUILDING AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FORMING EAST
OF PHOENIX. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS
...WHILE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOWS WILL BRING STORMS OFF MOUNTAINS
AND MOVE THEM WEST INTO THE LOWER DESERTS AFTER 23Z...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND BLOWING DUST TO IMPACT
KPHX/KIWA/KSDL THROUGH 05Z TUESDAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS NEAR KBLH AND KIPL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE FROM
EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY.
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20 PERCENT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS
EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 291000
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER
ELEVATION DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN
TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STAGNANT HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH MEAN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SET OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND A 595DM ANTI-CYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NRN UTAH. THIS PLACES MUCH OF ARIZONA WITHIN DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW STEERING DAILY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OF NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN ARIZONA TOWARDS LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST. WHILE
KTWC SOUNDING PWAT DATA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THE END OF JUNE...MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIOS
AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO OF ONLY 9-10 G/KG COMBINED WITH WARM
ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES HAVE LARGELY INHIBITED ANY OF THESE STORMS
FROM SURVIVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ONLY RESULTING IN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

WITH THIS PATTERN BASICALLY STUCK IN PLACE...ITS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE
FOR MUCH ENHANCED ACTIVITY VERSUS PERSISTENCE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THOUGH CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE LESS THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN A SOURCE REGION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HAS ACTUALLY BEEN LOWERING RECENTLY. AND
WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED EASTERLY WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...ITS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT VERY
BULLISH ON ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
TARGET CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM AND GILA COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF WRN PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING ANY ACTUAL ORGANIZED
SHOWERS INTO THE PHOENIX METRO TODAY LOOKS DOUBTFUL...WITH OUTFLOWS
AND ISOLD SHOWERS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SW MARICOPA COUNTY/ERN YUMA
COUNTY (I.E. ACTIVITY EVEN LESS THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS).

SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST A
QUASI-BACKDOOR FRONT OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE PROPAGATING FROM
NEE MEXICO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHT WHERE A ROGUE
STORM OR TWO MATERIALIZES WITHIN AN AREA OF LOCALIZED MIDLEVEL
SATURATION AND ELEVATED MUCAPE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME TARGETED
MODEST POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS)...THOUGH
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERWHELMING AND DOES NOT
YET JUSTIFY MAJOR INCREASES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THROUGH 18Z MON...SCT TO BKN CLDS AOA 14 THSD MSL. EAST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 18Z MON...SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 14 THSD MSL. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
APPEARS WE ARE GOING TO BE IN A STAGNANT PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DAILY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...AND LOW DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...INIGUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 291000
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER
ELEVATION DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN
TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STAGNANT HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH MEAN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SET OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND A 595DM ANTI-CYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NRN UTAH. THIS PLACES MUCH OF ARIZONA WITHIN DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW STEERING DAILY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OF NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN ARIZONA TOWARDS LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST. WHILE
KTWC SOUNDING PWAT DATA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THE END OF JUNE...MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIOS
AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO OF ONLY 9-10 G/KG COMBINED WITH WARM
ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES HAVE LARGELY INHIBITED ANY OF THESE STORMS
FROM SURVIVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ONLY RESULTING IN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

WITH THIS PATTERN BASICALLY STUCK IN PLACE...ITS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE
FOR MUCH ENHANCED ACTIVITY VERSUS PERSISTENCE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THOUGH CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE LESS THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN A SOURCE REGION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HAS ACTUALLY BEEN LOWERING RECENTLY. AND
WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED EASTERLY WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...ITS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT VERY
BULLISH ON ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
TARGET CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM AND GILA COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF WRN PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING ANY ACTUAL ORGANIZED
SHOWERS INTO THE PHOENIX METRO TODAY LOOKS DOUBTFUL...WITH OUTFLOWS
AND ISOLD SHOWERS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SW MARICOPA COUNTY/ERN YUMA
COUNTY (I.E. ACTIVITY EVEN LESS THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS).

SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST A
QUASI-BACKDOOR FRONT OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE PROPAGATING FROM
NEE MEXICO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHT WHERE A ROGUE
STORM OR TWO MATERIALIZES WITHIN AN AREA OF LOCALIZED MIDLEVEL
SATURATION AND ELEVATED MUCAPE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME TARGETED
MODEST POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS)...THOUGH
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERWHELMING AND DOES NOT
YET JUSTIFY MAJOR INCREASES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THROUGH 18Z MON...SCT TO BKN CLDS AOA 14 THSD MSL. EAST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 18Z MON...SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 14 THSD MSL. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
APPEARS WE ARE GOING TO BE IN A STAGNANT PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DAILY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...AND LOW DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...INIGUEZ





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