000
FXUS65 KPSR 192115
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
215 PM MST WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A RATHER LARGE AND ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. FAR REMOVED
AT OUR LATITUDE...DRY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO WILL CREEP NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
AZ BORDER. SOME MINOR MOISTURE INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST
AZ...HOWEVER ANY TSTM POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. OVERALL LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BREEZES AOB 15KTS ACROSS KPHX...KSDL...KIWA. DIURNAL
WIND DIRECTIONS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH BRIEF TRANSITION BETWEEN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST DIRECTIONS FOR KPHX BEFORE 03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONLY
LOCATIONS IN FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WOULD BE AFFECTED
BY THIS MOISTURE. THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH FAIR TO POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...DEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
000
FXUS65 KPSR 191454
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
750 AM MST WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER LARGE AND ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. FAR REMOVED
AT OUR LATITUDE...DRY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE WITH A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHARP BUT
DRY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEVADA...TRAILING SOUTHWEST
TO NEAR VANDENBERG AFB ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. OBSERVED 700 MB
WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE SAN DIEGO AND FLAGSTAFF
SOUNDINGS...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WERE AT LEAST 10 KNOTS STRONGER
THAN THE MODELS HAD FORECAST FOR 12Z WED. A BREEZY AFTERNOON IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE...STRONGER WINDS IN NORTHERN
AZ.
OTHERWISE OUR CURRENT DRY FORECASTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL
APPLIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A
LARGE UPPER LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MEANWHILE
THE 592DM H5 RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER WESTERN MEXICO. TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED OFF QUICKLY SINCE MIDNIGHT AND ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE DESERTS AS OF 09Z.
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ONE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WAS EVIDENT ON TUESDAY WHEN THERE WAS LITTLE
TO NO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF AZ...SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...OR SOUTHERN UTAH. I AM EXPECTING MUCH OF THE SAME TODAY
AS WEAK RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY
MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL SLIGHTLY TODAY AND CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPS SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT NORMAL HIGHS
AROUND 105-107 ACROSS THE DESERTS. PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AND A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND
GFS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT WEEK WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A SLIGHT SUGGESTION OF A MONSOON-TYPE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. EUROPEAN PLACES THE HIGH OVER COLORADO AND BRINGS IN VERY DRY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. HARD TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN EITHER SOLUTION THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND NAEFS MEAN AGREE WITH
THE IDEA OF WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF MEXICO. I INSERTED
CLIMO-LIKE POPS MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE LAST DAY OF
THE FORECAST FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. MOISTURE WAS INITIALLY SUGGESTED
FOR SUNDAY...THEN MONDAY...THEN TUESDAY...ETC. WILL WAIT TO SEE
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INSERTING ANYTHING ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT METRO PHOENIX SITES
THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH FAIR TO POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MO/MEYERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 191135
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A
LARGE UPPER LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MEANWHILE
THE 592DM H5 RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER WESTERN MEXICO. TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED OFF QUICKLY SINCE MIDNIGHT AND ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE DESERTS AS OF 09Z.
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ONE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WAS EVIDENT ON TUESDAY WHEN THERE WAS LITTLE
TO NO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF AZ...SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...OR SOUTHERN UTAH. I AM EXPECTING MUCH OF THE SAME TODAY
AS WEAK RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY
MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL SLIGHTLY TODAY AND CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPS SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT NORMAL HIGHS
AROUND 105-107 ACROSS THE DESERTS. PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AND A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND
GFS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT WEEK WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A SLIGHT SUGGESTION OF A MONSOON-TYPE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. EUROPEAN PLACES THE HIGH OVER COLORADO AND BRINGS IN VERY DRY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. HARD TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN EITHER SOLUTION THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND NAEFS MEAN AGREE WITH
THE IDEA OF WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF MEXICO. I INSERTED
CLIMO-LIKE POPS MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE LAST DAY OF
THE FORECAST FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. MOISTURE WAS INITIALLY SUGGESTED
FOR SUNDAY...THEN MONDAY...THEN TUESDAY...ETC. WILL WAIT TO SEE
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INSERTING ANYTHING ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT METRO PHOENIX SITES
THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH FAIR TO POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MO/MEYERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 190924
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 AM MST WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A
LARGE UPPER LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MEANWHILE
THE 592DM H5 RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER WESTERN MEXICO. TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED OFF QUICKLY SINCE MIDNIGHT AND ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE DESERTS AS OF 09Z.
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ONE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WAS EVIDENT ON TUESDAY WHEN THERE WAS LITTLE
TO NO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF AZ...SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...OR SOUTHERN UTAH. I AM EXPECTING MUCH OF THE SAME TODAY
AS WEAK RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY
MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL SLIGHTLY TODAY AND CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPS SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT NORMAL HIGHS
AROUND 105-107 ACROSS THE DESERTS. PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AND A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND
GFS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT WEEK WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A SLIGHT SUGGESTION OF A MONSOON-TYPE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. EUROPEAN PLACES THE HIGH OVER COLORADO AND BRINGS IN VERY DRY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. HARD TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN EITHER SOLUTION THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND NAEFS MEAN AGREE WITH
THE IDEA OF WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF MEXICO. I INSERTED
CLIMO-LIKE POPS MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE LAST DAY OF
THE FORECAST FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. MOISTURE WAS INITIALLY SUGGESTED
FOR SUNDAY...THEN MONDAY...THEN TUESDAY...ETC. WILL WAIT TO SEE
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INSERTING ANYTHING ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20-25KT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY AT KIPL....OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 17Z WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH FAIR TO POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MO/MEYERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 190400
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND PERSISTENT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. IN
THE SHORT-TERM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A RATHER LARGE AND ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. FAR REMOVED
AT OUR LATITUDE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OF WARM SUBSIDENT AIR WILL
DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST THIS WEEK
WITH READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...I.E. 104 TO 108 DEG F
ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP NORTH INTO
PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST AZ LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....HOWEVER STILL
REMAIN AT BAY ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...NAMELY PHOENIX
/ZONE 23/ EAST TO GLOBE/MIAMI /ZONE 24/.
HOWEVER BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH INTO PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20-25KT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY AT KIPL....OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 17Z WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH FAIR TO POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/PERCHA
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MO/MEYERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 182257 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
355 PM MST TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND PERSISTENT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A RATHER LARGE AND ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. FAR REMOVED
AT OUR LATITUDE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OF WARM SUBSIDENT AIR WILL
DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST THIS WEEK
WITH READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...I.E. 104 TO 108 DEG F
ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP NORTH INTO
PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST AZ LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....HOWEVER STILL
REMAIN AT BAY ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...NAMELY PHOENIX
/ZONE 23/ EAST TO GLOBE/MIAMI /ZONE 24/.
HOWEVER BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH INTO PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20-25KT DURING THE
EVENING AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY AT KIPL....OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 17Z WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH FAIR TO POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/PERCHA
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MO/MEYERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 182146
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND PERSISTENT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A RATHER LARGE AND ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. FAR REMOVED
AT OUR LATITUDE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OF WARM SUBSIDENT AIR WILL
DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST THIS WEEK
WITH READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...I.E. 104 TO 108 DEG F
ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP NORTH INTO
PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST AZ LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....HOWEVER STILL
REMAIN AT BAY ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...NAMELY PHOENIX
/ZONE 23/ EAST TO GLOBE/MIAMI /ZONE 24/.
HOWEVER BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH INTO PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL WHERE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH
FAIR TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
OTHERWISE...THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/PERCHA
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 181455
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
758 AM MST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND PERSISTENT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER LARGE AND ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FAR
REMOVED AT OUR LATITUDE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OF WARM SUBSIDENT AIR
WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANALYSIS OF WEATHER BALLOON
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 800/700 MB MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 7.1 G/KG ARE
NEEDED FOR HIGH ELEVATION CONVECTION. UNFORTUNATELY THE DRY WESTERLY
FLOW HAS PUSHED THESE VALUES INTO WEST TEXAS...AND SOUTH BEYOND
GUAYMAS AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...NOTHING VERY ENHANCED. CURRENT DRY AND HOT FORECASTS
STILL LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW STILL APPLIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND INTO THE
PAC NW EARLY WED IS KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A VERY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH CURRENT PWATS IN THE 0.25-0.40 INCH RANGE
AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. OPERATIONAL MODEL
OUTPUT REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEY KEEP THE REGION UNDER THIS VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS REMAINING IN THE 2-4
G/KG RANGE ACROSS OUT ENTIRE CWA...AND 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE
582-588DM RANGE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...I
HAVE REDUCED POPS FURTHER...TO WELL-BELOW CLIMO VALUES THROUGH
SUNDAY.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN AS THE LONG-WAVE 500MB RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THE
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH BOTH MODELS
INCREASING THE 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS INTO THE 4-6 G/KG RANGE OVER
CENTRAL AZ. HOWEVER...WARMING ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR CWA...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
FACT THAT BOTH MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE INSTABILITY/MU CAPE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL WHERE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH
FAIR TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
OTHERWISE...THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/PERCHA
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 181138
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
438 AM MST TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND PERSISTENT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND INTO THE
PAC NW EARLY WED IS KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A VERY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH CURRENT PWATS IN THE 0.25-0.40 INCH RANGE
AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. OPERATIONAL MODEL
OUTPUT REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEY KEEP THE REGION UNDER THIS VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS REMAINING IN THE 2-4
G/KG RANGE ACROSS OUT ENTIRE CWA...AND 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE
582-588DM RANGE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...I
HAVE REDUCED POPS FURTHER...TO WELL-BELOW CLIMO VALUES THROUGH
SUNDAY.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN AS THE LONG-WAVE 500MB RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THE
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH BOTH MODELS
INCREASING THE 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS INTO THE 4-6 G/KG RANGE OVER
CENTRAL AZ. HOWEVER...WARMING ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR CWA...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
FACT THAT BOTH MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE INSTABILITY/MU CAPE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL WHERE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH
FAIR TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
OTHERWISE...THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 180853
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
155 AM MST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND PERSISTENT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND INTO THE
PAC NW EARLY WED IS KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A VERY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH CURRENT PWATS IN THE 0.25-0.40 INCH RANGE
AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. OPERATIONAL MODEL
OUTPUT REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEY KEEP THE REGION UNDER THIS VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS REMAINING IN THE 2-4
G/KG RANGE ACROSS OUT ENTIRE CWA...AND 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE
582-588DM RANGE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...I
HAVE REDUCED POPS FURTHER...TO WELL-BELOW CLIMO VALUES THROUGH
SUNDAY.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN AS THE LONG-WAVE 500MB RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THE
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH BOTH MODELS
INCREASING THE 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS INTO THE 4-6 G/KG RANGE OVER
CENTRAL AZ. HOWEVER...WARMING ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR CWA...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
FACT THAT BOTH MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE INSTABILITY/MU CAPE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS...WITH SPEEDS AOB 12KT
YIELDING NO AVIATION PROBLEMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH
FAIR TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
OTHERWISE...THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 180339
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALSO ENSURE DRY WEATHER AND PERSISTENT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...COURTESY OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE THAT WAS IN
PLACE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA HAS NOW SHIFTED WELL TO
THE EAST /NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS/ AND VERY DRY AIR HAS TAKEN ITS PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT NOTHING OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE AND NOTHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORNING LOWS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. TEMPS AS OF 03Z
APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND INCOMING 00Z MODEL DATA ALSO CONFIRMS THE
INHERITED SHORT-TERM FORECAST. BOTTOM-LINE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES NECESSARY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
YIELDING A MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A FLATTENED 592DM
H5 SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE NOTABLE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN
SEMI-STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
FORECAST AREA IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH H5 HEIGHTS
STEADILY IN A 585DM-588DM RANGE. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE
ASSIGNED A NEAR PERSISTENCE TREND OF ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES IN A 2F TO
5F RANGE...ONLY OSCILLATING DUE TO MINOR CHANGES IN THE H9-H7
THERMAL PROFILE. DRY AIR WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MIXING RATIOS FALLING TO AROUND 2
G/KG...DICTATING ZERO POPS MUCH LESS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD
COVER (SANS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THIN CIRRUS ON OCCASION LATER IN
THE WEEK).
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PACIFIC NW UPPER
LOW WEAKENS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION BECOMES A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE LIMITED...WITH 850MB MIXING RATIOS RISING TO...AT MOST...4-5
G/KG ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AZ. THESE MOISTURE VALUES
WOULD LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS...WITH PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. BASED ON THESE LATEST
FORECASTS...POPS WERE PRETTY MUCH KEPT AT SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
VALUES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS...WITH SPEEDS AOB 12KT
YIELDING NO AVIATION PROBLEMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH
FAIR TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
OTHERWISE...THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 172046
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
145 PM MST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALSO ENSURE DRY WEATHER AND PERSISTENT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
YIELDING A MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A FLATTENED 592DM
H5 SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE NOTABLE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN
SEMI-STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
FORECAST AREA IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH H5 HEIGHTS
STEADILY IN A 585DM-588DM RANGE. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE
ASSIGNED A NEAR PERSISTENCE TREND OF ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES IN A 2F TO
5F RANGE...ONLY OSCILLATING DUE TO MINOR CHANGES IN THE H9-H7
THERMAL PROFILE. DRY AIR WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MIXING RATIOS FALLING TO AROUND 2
G/KG...DICTATING ZERO POPS MUCH LESS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD
COVER (SANS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THIN CIRRUS ON OCCASION LATER IN
THE WEEK).
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PACIFIC NW UPPER
LOW WEAKENS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION BECOMES A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE LIMITED...WITH 850MB MIXING RATIOS RISING TO...AT MOST...4-5
G/KG ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AZ. THESE MOISTURE VALUES
WOULD LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS...WITH PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. BASED ON THESE LATEST
FORECASTS...POPS WERE PRETTY MUCH KEPT AT SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
VALUES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS...WITH SPEEDS AOB 12KT
YIELDING NO AVIATION PROBLEMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH
FAIR TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
OTHERWISE...THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 171633
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
930 AM MST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COMBINED WITH A
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND
ENSURE DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATER PART
OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KPSR AND KTWC SHOWED A MARKED DECREASE IN THE
MOISTURE PROFILE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MEAN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
MIXING RATIOS FALLING FROM NEAR 5-6 G/KG TO 3-4 G/KG.
OTHERWISE...THERMAL PROFILES ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL AND SFC
TEMPERATURES ALMOST EXACTLY TRENDING AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS ALREADY ADVERTISED...AND LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN GRIDDED FORECAST FIELDS WERE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/439 AM MST MON JUN 17 2013/
A VERY STABLE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THIS WEEK. THE MAIN COMPUTER MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH ALL OF THIS
WEEK...AND BEYOND. A RATHER LARGE UPPER LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY INLAND INTO THE PAC NW ON WED...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
OVER THAT REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THAT LOW CENTER OVER OUR CWA WILL BE TO KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW GOING OVER THE REGION...AND BRING SOME VERY DRY AIR INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. CURRENT 850MB MIXING RATIOS THAT ARE IN THE 3-5
G/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR
2 G/KG BY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN NEAR THESE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST THU NIGHT. THIS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES VIRTUALLY
CLOUD-FREE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND ALLOW DAYTIME RH`S TO FALL
WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT RANGE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MAINLY RANGING FROM THE TEENS INTO THE LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN REMARKABLY STEADY THROUGH THIS WEEK...WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS IN THE 585-588DM RANGE SUPPORTING LOWER DESERT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 103-110 RANGE EACH DAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED...WITH 850MB MIXING RATIOS RISING
TO...AT MOST...4-5 G/KG ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AZ.
THESE MOISTURE VALUES WOULD LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...WITH PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. BASED ON THESE
LATEST FORECASTS...POPS WERE PRETTY MUCH KEPT AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO VALUES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
OVERALL LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TROUGHING THAT WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY INLAND INTO THE PAC NW
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 105 TO 110
RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES VARYING FROM
POOR TO FAIR. WINDS TO FOLLOW THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH SOME
GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WINDIER SPOTS.
ENHANCED BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER
ACROSS THE NWS PHOENIX FORECAST FIRE DISTRICTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POTENTIAL RETURN OF
ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
ARIZONA.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA
000
FXUS65 KPSR 171139
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
439 AM MST MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COMBINED WITH A
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND
ENSURE DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATER PART
OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY STABLE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THIS WEEK. THE MAIN COMPUTER MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH ALL OF THIS
WEEK...AND BEYOND. A RATHER LARGE UPPER LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY INLAND INTO THE PAC NW ON WED...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
OVER THAT REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THAT LOW CENTER OVER OUR CWA WILL BE TO KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW GOING OVER THE REGION...AND BRING SOME VERY DRY AIR INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. CURRENT 850MB MIXING RATIOS THAT ARE IN THE 3-5
G/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR
2 G/KG BY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN NEAR THESE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST THU NIGHT. THIS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES VIRTUALLY
CLOUD-FREE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND ALLOW DAYTIME RH`S TO FALL
WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT RANGE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MAINLY RANGING FROM THE TEENS INTO THE LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN REMARKABLY STEADY THROUGH THIS WEEK...WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS IN THE 585-588DM RANGE SUPPORTING LOWER DESERT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 103-110 RANGE EACH DAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED...WITH 850MB MIXING RATIOS RISING
TO...AT MOST...4-5 G/KG ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AZ.
THESE MOISTURE VALUES WOULD LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...WITH PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. BASED ON THESE
LATEST FORECASTS...POPS WERE PRETTY MUCH KEPT AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO VALUES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
OVERALL LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TROUGHING THAT WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY INLAND INTO THE PAC NW
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 105 TO 110
RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES VARYING FROM
POOR TO FAIR. WINDS TO FOLLOW THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH SOME
GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WINDIER SPOTS.
ENHANCED BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER
ACROSS THE NWS PHOENIX FORECAST FIRE DISTRICTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POTENTIAL RETURN OF
ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
ARIZONA.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA
000
FXUS65 KPSR 170900
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 AM MST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COMBINED WITH A
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND
ENSURE DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATER PART
OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY STABLE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THIS WEEK. THE MAIN COMPUTER MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH ALL OF THIS
WEEK...AND BEYOND. A RATHER LARGE UPPER LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY INLAND INTO THE PAC NW ON WED...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
OVER THAT REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THAT LOW CENTER OVER OUR CWA WILL BE TO KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW GOING OVER THE REGION...AND BRING SOME VERY DRY AIR INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. CURRENT 850MB MIXING RATIOS THAT ARE IN THE 3-5
G/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR
2 G/KG BY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN NEAR THESE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST THU NIGHT. THIS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES VIRTUALLY
CLOUD-FREE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND ALLOW DAYTIME RH`S TO FALL
WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT RANGE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MAINLY RANGING FROM THE TEENS INTO THE LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN REMARKABLY STEADY THROUGH THIS WEEK...WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS IN THE 585-588DM RANGE SUPPORTING LOWER DESERT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 103-110 RANGE EACH DAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED...WITH 850MB MIXING RATIOS RISING
TO...AT MOST...4-5 G/KG ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AZ.
THESE MOISTURE VALUES WOULD LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...WITH PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. BASED ON THESE
LATEST FORECASTS...POPS WERE PRETTY MUCH KEPT AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO VALUES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE STATE...LEADING TO
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE A FEW
HIGH BASED AFTN CU TOMORROW...BUT THEY SHOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAR EAST FROM ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS. WINDS TO FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS...AND WE MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY
WEST WINDS BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z AT KIPL. OVERALL NO AVIATION CONCERNS
NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TROUGHING THAT WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY INLAND INTO THE PAC NW
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 105 TO 110
RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES VARYING FROM
POOR TO FAIR. WINDS TO FOLLOW THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH SOME
GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WINDIER SPOTS.
ENHANCED BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER
ACROSS THE NWS PHOENIX FORECAST FIRE DISTRICTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POTENTIAL RETURN OF
ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
ARIZONA.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA
000
FXUS65 KPSR 170336
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
835 PM MST SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...ENSURING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE PAC NW COAST
CONTINUES TO SPREAD DRIER AIR EASTWARD AND ACROSS ARIZONA...PUSHING
THE FIRST SHOT OF MONSOON MOISTURE OUT OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
BACK INTO NEW MEXICO. AT 8 PM SKIES WERE VIRTUALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA...AND STORMS HAD ENDED IN ARIZONA. PWAT VALUES DROPPED TO 0.84
INCHES AT TUCSON...AND 850MB DEWPOINTS FELL TO 2C COMPARED TO ABOUT
8C A DAY AGO. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
DIURNAL WINDS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RATHER FLAT ANTI-CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AS NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL CREATE A VERY PERSISTENT DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY H5 HEIGHTS IN A 585-590DM RANGE AND H8 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +25C AND +28C. WITH VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN BEST PERFORMING
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH OF A FORECAST
REFLECTING TEMPERATURES SOME 2F TO 5F ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK (HIGHS 103F TO 110F FOR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS).
GFS/ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK BUT
DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED EAST
OF THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY ENTRAIN DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM MEXICO...RESULTING IN INCREASING PWATS ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. ECMWF IS MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MIXING RATIOS AT OR BELOW 5 G/KG SUGGEST ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX. NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRIER AIR CONTS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE STATE...LEADING TO CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE A FEW HIGH
BASED AFTN CU TOMORROW...BUT THEY SHOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
FAR EAST FROM ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS. WINDS TO FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS...AND WE MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY
WEST WINDS BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z AT KIPL. OVERALL NO AVIATION CONCERNS
NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TROUGHING THAT WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY INLAND INTO THE PAC NW
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 105 TO 110
RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES VARYING FROM
POOR TO FAIR. WINDS TO FOLLOW THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH SOME
GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WINDIER SPOTS.
ENHANCED BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER
ACROSS THE NWS PHOENIX FORECAST FIRE DISTRICTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POTENTIAL RETURN OF
ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
ARIZONA.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA
| 
