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000
FXUS65 KPSR 100357 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... ANOTHER VERY MILD EVENING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE REGION...AS VERY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWED HIGHS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO RISE WELL UP INTO THE 80S. PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR REACHED 86...WHICH BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD BY 2 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING 1-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN WHAT WE SAW AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. GIVEN THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THE LOWS WE SAW LAST NIGHT...DECIDED TO RAISE OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT A BIT. OUTSIDE OF THESE WARMER
LOWS...INHERITED FORECASTS/TRENDS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO OTHER
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... QUASI-BLOCKED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN HEMISPHERE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE DEEP TROUGHING ENVELOPES ERN
CONUS. UNUSUALLY HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT (H5 HEIGHTS 2-3 NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE) AND 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SAMPLED H8
AND H7 TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (APPROACHING OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS) HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR TO ABOVE
RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL MORE ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS...AND NEGATIVE ERN CONUS HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS WITH A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST MOST APPLICABLE. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES REGULARLY
TOUCHING 140DM AND OTHER HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO
FALL IN THE 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH RECORD TERRITORY WILL BE
TYPICAL. (PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST
AND RECORD DETAILS). MODEL SPREAD ON ALL ACCOUNTS IS QUITE SMALL
YIELDING EXCELLENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND POINTING TOWARDS FRIDAY
AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THE SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY PAC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER ONE
POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST...A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH
MAY FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES...THIS AREA OFFSHORE COULD PRESENT
ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX BLOCK WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED...THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS...TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND BEYOND.
WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS FOR THE MOST PART ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...8 KTS OR LESS...AND ALLOW THEM TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EASTERLY BREEZES AT KPHX DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S
WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK
WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...


AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED
SKIES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
SCATTERED...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL SWINGS. HOWEVER...AT KBLH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 100336
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... ANOTHER VERY MILD EVENING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE REGION...AS VERY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWED HIGHS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO RISE WELL UP INTO THE 80S. PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR REACHED 86...WHICH BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD BY 2 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING 1-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN WHAT WE SAW AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. GIVEN THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THE LOWS WE SAW LAST NIGHT...DECIDED TO RAISE OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT A BIT. OUTSIDE OF THESE WARMER
LOWS...INHERITED FORECASTS/TRENDS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO OTHER
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... QUASI-BLOCKED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN HEMISPHERE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE DEEP TROUGHING ENVELOPES ERN
CONUS. UNUSUALLY HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT (H5 HEIGHTS 2-3 NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE) AND 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SAMPLED H8
AND H7 TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (APPROACHING OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS) HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR TO ABOVE
RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL MORE ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS...AND NEGATIVE ERN CONUS HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS WITH A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST MOST APPLICABLE. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES REGULARLY
TOUCHING 140DM AND OTHER HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO
FALL IN THE 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH RECORD TERRITORY WILL BE
TYPICAL. (PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST
AND RECORD DETAILS). MODEL SPREAD ON ALL ACCOUNTS IS QUITE SMALL
YIELDING EXCELLENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND POINTING TOWARDS FRIDAY
AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THE SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY PAC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER ONE
POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST...A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH
MAY FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES...THIS AREA OFFSHORE COULD PRESENT
ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX BLOCK WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED...THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED
SKIES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
SCATTERED...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL SWINGS. HOWEVER...AT KBLH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S
WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK
WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...JS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 092148
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUASI-BLOCKED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WHILE DEEP TROUGHING ENVELOPES ERN CONUS. UNUSUALLY HIGH
HEIGHTS ALOFT (H5 HEIGHTS 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
AVERAGE) AND 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SAMPLED H8 AND H7 TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE (APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING DAILY
RECORDS) HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR TO ABOVE RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL MORE ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS...AND NEGATIVE ERN CONUS HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS WITH A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST MOST APPLICABLE. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES REGULARLY
TOUCHING 140DM AND OTHER HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO
FALL IN THE 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH RECORD TERRITORY WILL BE
TYPICAL. (PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST
AND RECORD DETAILS). MODEL SPREAD ON ALL ACCOUNTS IS QUITE SMALL
YIELDING EXCELLENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND POINTING TOWARDS FRIDAY
AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THE SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY PAC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER ONE
POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST...A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH
MAY FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES...THIS AREA OFFSHORE COULD PRESENT
ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX BLOCK WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED...THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED
SKIES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
SCATTERED...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL SWINGS. HOWEVER...AT KBLH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S
WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK
WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...JS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 092148
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUASI-BLOCKED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WHILE DEEP TROUGHING ENVELOPES ERN CONUS. UNUSUALLY HIGH
HEIGHTS ALOFT (H5 HEIGHTS 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
AVERAGE) AND 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SAMPLED H8 AND H7 TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE (APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING DAILY
RECORDS) HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR TO ABOVE RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL MORE ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS...AND NEGATIVE ERN CONUS HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS WITH A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST MOST APPLICABLE. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES REGULARLY
TOUCHING 140DM AND OTHER HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO
FALL IN THE 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH RECORD TERRITORY WILL BE
TYPICAL. (PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST
AND RECORD DETAILS). MODEL SPREAD ON ALL ACCOUNTS IS QUITE SMALL
YIELDING EXCELLENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND POINTING TOWARDS FRIDAY
AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THE SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY PAC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER ONE
POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST...A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH
MAY FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES...THIS AREA OFFSHORE COULD PRESENT
ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX BLOCK WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED...THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED
SKIES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
SCATTERED...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL SWINGS. HOWEVER...AT KBLH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S
WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK
WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...JS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 092148
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUASI-BLOCKED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WHILE DEEP TROUGHING ENVELOPES ERN CONUS. UNUSUALLY HIGH
HEIGHTS ALOFT (H5 HEIGHTS 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
AVERAGE) AND 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SAMPLED H8 AND H7 TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE (APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING DAILY
RECORDS) HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR TO ABOVE RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL MORE ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS...AND NEGATIVE ERN CONUS HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS WITH A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST MOST APPLICABLE. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES REGULARLY
TOUCHING 140DM AND OTHER HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO
FALL IN THE 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH RECORD TERRITORY WILL BE
TYPICAL. (PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST
AND RECORD DETAILS). MODEL SPREAD ON ALL ACCOUNTS IS QUITE SMALL
YIELDING EXCELLENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND POINTING TOWARDS FRIDAY
AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THE SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY PAC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER ONE
POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST...A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH
MAY FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES...THIS AREA OFFSHORE COULD PRESENT
ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX BLOCK WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED...THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED
SKIES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
SCATTERED...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL SWINGS. HOWEVER...AT KBLH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S
WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK
WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...JS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 091533
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BLOCKED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. GIVEN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN HAVE FORCED A STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH CNTRL ARIZONA
ALLOWING MIXING WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
SUCH...LOWS THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DESPITE THE WARMER START TO THE DAY...12Z KTWC SOUNDING
DATA WITH H8 TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE SUGGEST EVENTUAL
HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED MONDAY (NEAR RECORD HIGHS -SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). THUS...HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO
BLEND INTO READINGS PEAKING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/510 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016/
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CLEARS TO OUR EAST AND SOME MODEST WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MANY LOWER
DESERT SITES...WITH SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE FOR
BOTH PHOENIX AND YUMA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION
FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD DETAILS. SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DRY /FOR US/ PAC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER...OF CONTINUED INTEREST IS...A SHEARED
PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH FORMING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. THIS AREA
OFFSHORE PRESENTS ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX
BLOCK...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTED THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA WILL
ACT TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB
8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE
SFC INCREASES SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-14KT RANGE AT KPHX.
NOTE: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF ELEVATED EAST WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO MODEST LLWS
AND AS SUCH THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS INCLUDING THE KPHX
TAF. SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME PATCHY
CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S
WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK
WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 091210 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 80F-PLUS IN PHOENIX DID NOT DISAPPOINT
YESTERDAY...WARMING ALL THE WAY UP TO 85F AND ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. OTHER SITES AROUND THE AREA WERE
EQUIVALENTLY WARM...YUMA...EL CENTRO AND PARKER AT 83F AND LOWER 80S
FOR NEARLY ALL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SURPRISE THAT GIVEN THE
WARM AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BREEZES TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
ON THE WARM SIDE AND 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MONDAY AM.
CONUS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A SLOW EXITING
UL LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER BAJA SUR/SONORA/SINALOA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
STILL SET-UP TO PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
AND NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CLEARS TO OUR EAST AND SOME MODEST WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MANY LOWER
DESERT SITES...WITH SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE FOR
BOTH PHOENIX AND YUMA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION
FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD DETAILS. SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DRY /FOR US/ PAC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER...OF CONTINUED INTEREST IS...A SHEARED
PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH FORMING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. THIS AREA
OFFSHORE PRESENTS ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX
BLOCK...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTED THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA WILL
ACT TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB
8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE
SFC INCREASES SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-14KT RANGE AT KPHX.
NOTE: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF ELEVATED EAST WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO MODEST LLWS
AND AS SUCH THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS INCLUDING THE KPHX
TAF. SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME PATCHY
CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL
ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT
SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW
NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 091210 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 80F-PLUS IN PHOENIX DID NOT DISAPPOINT
YESTERDAY...WARMING ALL THE WAY UP TO 85F AND ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. OTHER SITES AROUND THE AREA WERE
EQUIVALENTLY WARM...YUMA...EL CENTRO AND PARKER AT 83F AND LOWER 80S
FOR NEARLY ALL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SURPRISE THAT GIVEN THE
WARM AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BREEZES TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
ON THE WARM SIDE AND 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MONDAY AM.
CONUS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A SLOW EXITING
UL LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER BAJA SUR/SONORA/SINALOA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
STILL SET-UP TO PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
AND NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CLEARS TO OUR EAST AND SOME MODEST WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MANY LOWER
DESERT SITES...WITH SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE FOR
BOTH PHOENIX AND YUMA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION
FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD DETAILS. SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DRY /FOR US/ PAC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER...OF CONTINUED INTEREST IS...A SHEARED
PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH FORMING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. THIS AREA
OFFSHORE PRESENTS ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX
BLOCK...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTED THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA WILL
ACT TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB
8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE
SFC INCREASES SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-14KT RANGE AT KPHX.
NOTE: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF ELEVATED EAST WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO MODEST LLWS
AND AS SUCH THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS INCLUDING THE KPHX
TAF. SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME PATCHY
CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL
ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT
SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW
NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 091210 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 80F-PLUS IN PHOENIX DID NOT DISAPPOINT
YESTERDAY...WARMING ALL THE WAY UP TO 85F AND ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. OTHER SITES AROUND THE AREA WERE
EQUIVALENTLY WARM...YUMA...EL CENTRO AND PARKER AT 83F AND LOWER 80S
FOR NEARLY ALL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SURPRISE THAT GIVEN THE
WARM AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BREEZES TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
ON THE WARM SIDE AND 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MONDAY AM.
CONUS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A SLOW EXITING
UL LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER BAJA SUR/SONORA/SINALOA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
STILL SET-UP TO PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
AND NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CLEARS TO OUR EAST AND SOME MODEST WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MANY LOWER
DESERT SITES...WITH SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE FOR
BOTH PHOENIX AND YUMA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION
FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD DETAILS. SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DRY /FOR US/ PAC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER...OF CONTINUED INTEREST IS...A SHEARED
PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH FORMING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. THIS AREA
OFFSHORE PRESENTS ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX
BLOCK...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTED THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA WILL
ACT TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB
8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE
SFC INCREASES SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-14KT RANGE AT KPHX.
NOTE: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF ELEVATED EAST WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO MODEST LLWS
AND AS SUCH THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS INCLUDING THE KPHX
TAF. SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME PATCHY
CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL
ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT
SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW
NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 091024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
324 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 80F-PLUS IN PHOENIX DID NOT DISAPPOINT
YESTERDAY...WARMING ALL THE WAY UP TO 85F AND ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. OTHER SITES AROUND THE AREA WERE
EQUIVALENTLY WARM...YUMA...EL CENTRO AND PARKER AT 83F AND LOWER 80S
FOR NEARLY ALL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SURPRISE THAT GIVEN THE
WARM AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BREEZES TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
ON THE WARM SIDE AND 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MONDAY AM.
CONUS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A SLOW EXITING
UL LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER BAJA SUR/SONORA/SINALOA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
STILL SET-UP TO PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
AND NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CLEARS TO OUR EAST AND SOME MODEST WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MANY LOWER
DESERT SITES...WITH SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE FOR
BOTH PHOENIX AND YUMA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION
FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD DETAILS. SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DRY /FOR US/ PAC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER...OF CONTINUED INTEREST IS...A SHEARED
PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH FORMING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. THIS AREA
OFFSHORE PRESENTS ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX
BLOCK...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTED THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INCREASES
SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE AT KPHX. SKIES TO REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8
KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER
THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD
OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT
SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW
NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 091024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
324 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 80F-PLUS IN PHOENIX DID NOT DISAPPOINT
YESTERDAY...WARMING ALL THE WAY UP TO 85F AND ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. OTHER SITES AROUND THE AREA WERE
EQUIVALENTLY WARM...YUMA...EL CENTRO AND PARKER AT 83F AND LOWER 80S
FOR NEARLY ALL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SURPRISE THAT GIVEN THE
WARM AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BREEZES TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
ON THE WARM SIDE AND 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MONDAY AM.
CONUS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A SLOW EXITING
UL LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER BAJA SUR/SONORA/SINALOA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
STILL SET-UP TO PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
AND NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CLEARS TO OUR EAST AND SOME MODEST WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MANY LOWER
DESERT SITES...WITH SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE FOR
BOTH PHOENIX AND YUMA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION
FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD DETAILS. SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DRY /FOR US/ PAC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER...OF CONTINUED INTEREST IS...A SHEARED
PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH FORMING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. THIS AREA
OFFSHORE PRESENTS ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX
BLOCK...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTED THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INCREASES
SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE AT KPHX. SKIES TO REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8
KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER
THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD
OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT
SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW
NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 090533 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A VERY MILD EVENING (FOR EARLY FEB) IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MANY OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
STILL IN THE 70S AT THIS HOUR. VERY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...WITH
500MB HEIGHTS AOA 584DM...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WELL
UP INTO THE 80S AT MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACHING 85F...JUST A DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD
FOR THE DATE. THE LATEST NAM AND 18Z GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THIS VERY WARM WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...OTHER
THAN SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE LOOKING QUITE GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION
LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S.  HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF AZ...MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA TODAY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTH OF EL PASO ON TUE.  A RESULTING NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS
THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.


THIS WEEKEND...

AGAIN...STEADY STATE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS...IN THE 80S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A MUCH WEAKENED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. OF MUCH
GREATER INTEREST...IS A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS.  IN COMPARISON...WE REMEMBER DURING THE 1991-
1992 EL NINO EVENT...CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION SPUN UP
INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS
RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS. PERHAPS
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE
BEYOND THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY...WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INCREASES
SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE AT KPHX. SKIES TO REMAIN
BASICALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8
KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER
THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      |   81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      |   83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      |   83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      |   84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE......NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 090533 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A VERY MILD EVENING (FOR EARLY FEB) IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MANY OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
STILL IN THE 70S AT THIS HOUR. VERY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...WITH
500MB HEIGHTS AOA 584DM...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WELL
UP INTO THE 80S AT MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACHING 85F...JUST A DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD
FOR THE DATE. THE LATEST NAM AND 18Z GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THIS VERY WARM WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...OTHER
THAN SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE LOOKING QUITE GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION
LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S.  HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF AZ...MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA TODAY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTH OF EL PASO ON TUE.  A RESULTING NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS
THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.


THIS WEEKEND...

AGAIN...STEADY STATE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS...IN THE 80S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A MUCH WEAKENED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. OF MUCH
GREATER INTEREST...IS A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS.  IN COMPARISON...WE REMEMBER DURING THE 1991-
1992 EL NINO EVENT...CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION SPUN UP
INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS
RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS. PERHAPS
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE
BEYOND THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY...WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INCREASES
SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE AT KPHX. SKIES TO REMAIN
BASICALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8
KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER
THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      |   81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      |   83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      |   83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      |   84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE......NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 090337
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A VERY MILD EVENING (FOR EARLY FEB) IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MANY OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
STILL IN THE 70S AT THIS HOUR. VERY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...WITH
500MB HEIGHTS AOA 584DM...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WELL
UP INTO THE 80S AT MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACHING 85F...JUST A DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD
FOR THE DATE. THE LATEST NAM AND 18Z GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THIS VERY WARM WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...OTHER
THAN SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE LOOKING QUITE GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION
LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S.  HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF AZ...MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA TODAY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MEX SOUTH OF EL PASO ON TUE.  A RESULTING NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS
THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.


THIS WEEKEND...

AGAIN...STEADY STATE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS...IN THE 80S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A MUCH WEAKENED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. OF MUCH
GREATER INTEREST...IS A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS.  IN COMPARISON...WE REMEMBER DURING THE 1991-
1992 EL NINO EVENT...CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION SPUN UP
INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS
RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS. PERHAPS
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE
BEYOND THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

EXPECT EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEING AT THEIR STRONGEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS
15-20 KTS OCCASIONALLY...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOLIDLY FROM THE EAST- NORTHEAST.
ALSO IN THAT LAYER...BUT WITHIN 1-2 KFT AGL...SPEEDS WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 20 KTS. EXPECT THIS SITUATION TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA FOR MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY BEING AT
THEIR STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCATIONS TO HAVE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FAVORING TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      |   81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      |   83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      |   83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      |   84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE......NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 082118
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION
LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S.  HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF AZ...MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA TODAY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MEX SOUTH OF EL PASO ON TUE.  A RESULTING NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS
THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.


THIS WEEKEND...

AGAIN...STEADY STATE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS...IN THE 80S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A MUCH WEAKENED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. OF MUCH
GREATER INTEREST...IS A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS.  IN COMPARISON...WE REMEMBER DURING THE 1991-
1992 EL NINO EVENT...CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION SPUN UP
INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS
RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS. PERHAPS
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE
BEYOND THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

EXPECT EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEING AT THEIR STRONGEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS
15-20 KTS OCCASIONALLY...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOLIDLY FROM THE EAST- NORTHEAST.
ALSO IN THAT LAYER...BUT WITHIN 1-2 KFT AGL...SPEEDS WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 20 KTS. EXPECT THIS SITUATION TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA FOR MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY BEING AT
THEIR STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCATIONS TO HAVE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FAVORING TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      |   81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      |   83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      |   83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      |   84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE......NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 082118
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION
LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S.  HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF AZ...MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA TODAY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MEX SOUTH OF EL PASO ON TUE.  A RESULTING NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS
THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.


THIS WEEKEND...

AGAIN...STEADY STATE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS...IN THE 80S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A MUCH WEAKENED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. OF MUCH
GREATER INTEREST...IS A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS.  IN COMPARISON...WE REMEMBER DURING THE 1991-
1992 EL NINO EVENT...CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION SPUN UP
INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS
RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS. PERHAPS
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE
BEYOND THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

EXPECT EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEING AT THEIR STRONGEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS
15-20 KTS OCCASIONALLY...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOLIDLY FROM THE EAST- NORTHEAST.
ALSO IN THAT LAYER...BUT WITHIN 1-2 KFT AGL...SPEEDS WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 20 KTS. EXPECT THIS SITUATION TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA FOR MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY BEING AT
THEIR STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCATIONS TO HAVE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FAVORING TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      |   81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      |   83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      |   83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      |   84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE......NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 082118
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION
LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S.  HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF AZ...MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA TODAY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MEX SOUTH OF EL PASO ON TUE.  A RESULTING NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS
THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.


THIS WEEKEND...

AGAIN...STEADY STATE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS...IN THE 80S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A MUCH WEAKENED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. OF MUCH
GREATER INTEREST...IS A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS.  IN COMPARISON...WE REMEMBER DURING THE 1991-
1992 EL NINO EVENT...CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION SPUN UP
INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS
RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS. PERHAPS
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE
BEYOND THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

EXPECT EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEING AT THEIR STRONGEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS
15-20 KTS OCCASIONALLY...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOLIDLY FROM THE EAST- NORTHEAST.
ALSO IN THAT LAYER...BUT WITHIN 1-2 KFT AGL...SPEEDS WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 20 KTS. EXPECT THIS SITUATION TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA FOR MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY BEING AT
THEIR STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCATIONS TO HAVE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FAVORING TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      |   81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      |   83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      |   83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      |   84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE......NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 081751
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1051 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION
LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...TODAY A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF
AZ...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL MEX SOUTH OF EL PASO ON TUE. A RESULTING NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AZ FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE CURRENT DRY
FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...435 AM MST...

UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN MAJORITY OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT...SPANNING FAR TO THE NORTH INTO YUKON AND NW
TERRITORIES AS WELL AS AK. MEANWHILE...GENERAL AREA OF WEAK/LOWER
HEIGHTS CONTINUES TO PERSIST WEST OF AND OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN UL CIRC CENTER BEST OBSERVED VIA 400MB AND ABOVE
STREAMLINES. CLOUD COVER REMAINS CONFINED TO LOCATIONS JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA.

FORECAST FOR THIS WORK WEEK WILL BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOWER DESERT SITES AND
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE...WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES PEAKING INTO THE MID 560DM RANGE AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING 14 TO 16C EACH AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY GOOD MIXING. THIS
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO PROLONGED PERIODS OF
EASTERLY RIDGETOP/GAP WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX AND NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY. FCST ML/UL WIND
STREAMLINES INDICATE THE RIDGE CIRC CENTER...CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER
CA/OR...TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND OVER SOCAL
DURING THE WEEK. THIS MOTION WILL SHUNT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
ML/UL LOW ANCHORED SLIGHTLY OVER BAJA CA AND ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM OFF TO OUR SE. WESTERN RIDGE HEIGHTS RANK IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE TO MAX RANGE ON NAEFS PERCENTILE TABLES AND FORECAST HIGHS
REFLECT THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH AS WELL. A FEW RECORDS COULD BE AT
STAKE...MOSTLY IN PHOENIX...DURING THE WORK WEEK. PLEASE REFERENCE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE FCST VALUES AND RECORD DATA.

EXTENDED PERIOD...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST SOLNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND...CONTINUING OUR WARM AND DRY FORECAST UNDER
A WEST COAST RIDGE. RIDGE HEIGHTS DO BECOME MODIFIED DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDES UP INTO THE PAC NW.
PHASING AND SOLN DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP BEGINNING MON
15/00Z /SUNDAY NIGHT/. DIFFERENCES LIE BETWEEN THE RESOLUTION AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS
CONVECTION OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC/EL NINO REGION. GFS/GEFS
SOLNS MAINTAIN TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESS WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUCH THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CUT OFF AND INTERACT
WITH ANOTHER EAST PAC/BAJA LOW AND BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...EC/GEM/NAEFS SOLNS ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSIASTIC...MAINTAINING RIDGE HEIGHTS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. THE ONE UPSIDE AMONG THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF UL HEIGHTS...WITH A SUBTLE SCALING BACK THE WARMTH FROM
THE WORK WEEK FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

EXPECT EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEING AT THEIR STRONGEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS
15-20 KTS OCCASIONALLY...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOLIDLY FROM THE EAST- NORTHEAST.
ALSO IN THAT LAYER...BUT WITHIN 1-2 KFT AGL...SPEEDS WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 20 KTS. EXPECT THIS SITUATION TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA FOR MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY BEING AT
THEIR STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCATIONS TO HAVE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FAVORING TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      |   81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      |   83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      |   83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      |   84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 081531
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
835 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION
LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...TODAY A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF
AZ...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL MEX SOUTH OF EL PASO ON TUE. A RESULTING NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AZ FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE CURRENT DRY
FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...435 AM MST...

UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN MAJORITY OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT...SPANNING FAR TO THE NORTH INTO YUKON AND NW
TERRITORIES AS WELL AS AK. MEANWHILE...GENERAL AREA OF WEAK/LOWER
HEIGHTS CONTINUES TO PERSIST WEST OF AND OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN UL CIRC CENTER BEST OBSERVED VIA 400MB AND ABOVE
STREAMLINES. CLOUD COVER REMAINS CONFINED TO LOCATIONS JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA.

FORECAST FOR THIS WORK WEEK WILL BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOWER DESERT SITES AND
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE...WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES PEAKING INTO THE MID 560DM RANGE AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING 14 TO 16C EACH AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY GOOD MIXING. THIS
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO PROLONGED PERIODS OF
EASTERLY RIDGETOP/GAP WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX AND NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY. FCST ML/UL WIND
STREAMLINES INDICATE THE RIDGE CIRC CENTER...CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER
CA/OR...TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND OVER SOCAL
DURING THE WEEK. THIS MOTION WILL SHUNT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
ML/UL LOW ANCHORED SLIGHTLY OVER BAJA CA AND ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM OFF TO OUR SE. WESTERN RIDGE HEIGHTS RANK IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE TO MAX RANGE ON NAEFS PERCENTILE TABLES AND FORECAST HIGHS
REFLECT THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH AS WELL. A FEW RECORDS COULD BE AT
STAKE...MOSTLY IN PHOENIX...DURING THE WORK WEEK. PLEASE REFERENCE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE FCST VALUES AND RECORD DATA.

EXTENDED PERIOD...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST SOLNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND...CONTINUING OUR WARM AND DRY FORECAST UNDER
A WEST COAST RIDGE. RIDGE HEIGHTS DO BECOME MODIFIED DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDES UP INTO THE PAC NW.
PHASING AND SOLN DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP BEGINNING MON
15/00Z /SUNDAY NIGHT/. DIFFERENCES LIE BETWEEN THE RESOLUTION AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS
CONVECTION OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC/EL NINO REGION. GFS/GEFS
SOLNS MAINTAIN TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESS WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUCH THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CUT OFF AND INTERACT
WITH ANOTHER EAST PAC/BAJA LOW AND BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...EC/GEM/NAEFS SOLNS ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSIASTIC...MAINTAINING RIDGE HEIGHTS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. THE ONE UPSIDE AMONG THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF UL HEIGHTS...WITH A SUBTLE SCALING BACK THE WARMTH FROM
THE WORK WEEK FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL

STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE PHX
AREA TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-MORNING TODAY. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT STRONGER...IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DROPPING BACK AOB
8 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL...IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS CRITERIA. CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...AT KPHX...WINDS MAY TEND TOWARDS LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
NELY WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE...TYPICALLY BY 16-17Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (AOB
6KTS) AT KIPL TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS (10-12 KTS) DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NV. CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      | 81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      | 83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      | 83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      | 84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 081137 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN MAJORITY OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT...SPANNING FAR TO THE NORTH INTO YUKON AND NW
TERRITORIES AS WELL AS AK. MEANWHILE...GENERAL AREA OF WEAK/LOWER
HEIGHTS CONTINUES TO PERSIST WEST OF AND OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN UL CIRC CENTER BEST OBSERVED VIA 400MB AND ABOVE
STREAMLINES. CLOUD COVER REMAINS CONFINED TO LOCATIONS JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA.

FORECAST FOR THIS WORK WEEK WILL BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOWER DESERT SITES AND
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE...WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES PEAKING INTO THE MID 560DM RANGE AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING 14 TO 16C EACH AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY GOOD MIXING. THIS
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO PROLONGED PERIODS OF
EASTERLY RIDGETOP/GAP WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX AND NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY. FCST ML/UL WIND
STREAMLINES INDICATE THE RIDGE CIRC CENTER...CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER
CA/OR...TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND OVER SOCAL
DURING THE WEEK. THIS MOTION WILL SHUNT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
ML/UL LOW ANCHORED SLIGHTLY OVER BAJA CA AND ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM OFF TO OUR SE. WESTERN RIDGE HEIGHTS RANK IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE TO MAX RANGE ON NAEFS PERCENTILE TABLES AND FORECAST HIGHS
REFLECT THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH AS WELL. A FEW RECORDS COULD BE AT
STAKE...MOSTLY IN PHOENIX...DURING THE WORK WEEK. PLEASE REFERENCE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE FCST VALUES AND RECORD DATA.

EXTENDED PERIOD...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST SOLNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND...CONTINUING OUR WARM AND DRY FORECAST UNDER
A WEST COAST RIDGE. RIDGE HEIGHTS DO BECOME MODIFIED DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDES UP INTO THE PAC NW.
PHASING AND SOLN DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP BEGINNING MON
15/00Z /SUNDAY NIGHT/. DIFFERENCES LIE BETWEEN THE RESOLUTION AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS
CONVECTION OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC/EL NINO REGION. GFS/GEFS
SOLNS MAINTAIN TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESS WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUCH THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CUT OFF AND INTERACT
WITH ANOTHER EAST PAC/BAJA LOW AND BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...EC/GEM/NAEFS SOLNS ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSIASTIC...MAINTAINING RIDGE HEIGHTS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. THE ONE UPSIDE AMONG THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF UL HEIGHTS...WITH A SUBTLE SCALING BACK THE WARMTH FROM
THE WORK WEEK FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL

STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE PHX
AREA TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-MORNING TODAY. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT STRONGER...IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DROPPING BACK AOB
8 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL...IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS CRITERIA. CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...AT KPHX...WINDS MAY TEND TOWARDS LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
NELY WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE...TYPICALLY BY 16-17Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (AOB
6KTS) AT KIPL TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS (10-12 KTS) DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NV. CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH EMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      | 81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      | 83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      | 83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      | 84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 081137 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN MAJORITY OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT...SPANNING FAR TO THE NORTH INTO YUKON AND NW
TERRITORIES AS WELL AS AK. MEANWHILE...GENERAL AREA OF WEAK/LOWER
HEIGHTS CONTINUES TO PERSIST WEST OF AND OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN UL CIRC CENTER BEST OBSERVED VIA 400MB AND ABOVE
STREAMLINES. CLOUD COVER REMAINS CONFINED TO LOCATIONS JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA.

FORECAST FOR THIS WORK WEEK WILL BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOWER DESERT SITES AND
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE...WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES PEAKING INTO THE MID 560DM RANGE AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING 14 TO 16C EACH AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY GOOD MIXING. THIS
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO PROLONGED PERIODS OF
EASTERLY RIDGETOP/GAP WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX AND NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY. FCST ML/UL WIND
STREAMLINES INDICATE THE RIDGE CIRC CENTER...CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER
CA/OR...TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND OVER SOCAL
DURING THE WEEK. THIS MOTION WILL SHUNT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
ML/UL LOW ANCHORED SLIGHTLY OVER BAJA CA AND ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM OFF TO OUR SE. WESTERN RIDGE HEIGHTS RANK IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE TO MAX RANGE ON NAEFS PERCENTILE TABLES AND FORECAST HIGHS
REFLECT THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH AS WELL. A FEW RECORDS COULD BE AT
STAKE...MOSTLY IN PHOENIX...DURING THE WORK WEEK. PLEASE REFERENCE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE FCST VALUES AND RECORD DATA.

EXTENDED PERIOD...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST SOLNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND...CONTINUING OUR WARM AND DRY FORECAST UNDER
A WEST COAST RIDGE. RIDGE HEIGHTS DO BECOME MODIFIED DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDES UP INTO THE PAC NW.
PHASING AND SOLN DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP BEGINNING MON
15/00Z /SUNDAY NIGHT/. DIFFERENCES LIE BETWEEN THE RESOLUTION AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS
CONVECTION OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC/EL NINO REGION. GFS/GEFS
SOLNS MAINTAIN TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESS WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUCH THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CUT OFF AND INTERACT
WITH ANOTHER EAST PAC/BAJA LOW AND BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...EC/GEM/NAEFS SOLNS ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSIASTIC...MAINTAINING RIDGE HEIGHTS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. THE ONE UPSIDE AMONG THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF UL HEIGHTS...WITH A SUBTLE SCALING BACK THE WARMTH FROM
THE WORK WEEK FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL

STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE PHX
AREA TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-MORNING TODAY. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT STRONGER...IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DROPPING BACK AOB
8 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL...IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS CRITERIA. CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...AT KPHX...WINDS MAY TEND TOWARDS LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
NELY WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE...TYPICALLY BY 16-17Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (AOB
6KTS) AT KIPL TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS (10-12 KTS) DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NV. CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH EMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      | 81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      | 83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      | 83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      | 84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 081137 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN MAJORITY OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT...SPANNING FAR TO THE NORTH INTO YUKON AND NW
TERRITORIES AS WELL AS AK. MEANWHILE...GENERAL AREA OF WEAK/LOWER
HEIGHTS CONTINUES TO PERSIST WEST OF AND OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN UL CIRC CENTER BEST OBSERVED VIA 400MB AND ABOVE
STREAMLINES. CLOUD COVER REMAINS CONFINED TO LOCATIONS JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA.

FORECAST FOR THIS WORK WEEK WILL BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOWER DESERT SITES AND
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE...WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES PEAKING INTO THE MID 560DM RANGE AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING 14 TO 16C EACH AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY GOOD MIXING. THIS
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO PROLONGED PERIODS OF
EASTERLY RIDGETOP/GAP WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX AND NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY. FCST ML/UL WIND
STREAMLINES INDICATE THE RIDGE CIRC CENTER...CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER
CA/OR...TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND OVER SOCAL
DURING THE WEEK. THIS MOTION WILL SHUNT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
ML/UL LOW ANCHORED SLIGHTLY OVER BAJA CA AND ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM OFF TO OUR SE. WESTERN RIDGE HEIGHTS RANK IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE TO MAX RANGE ON NAEFS PERCENTILE TABLES AND FORECAST HIGHS
REFLECT THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH AS WELL. A FEW RECORDS COULD BE AT
STAKE...MOSTLY IN PHOENIX...DURING THE WORK WEEK. PLEASE REFERENCE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE FCST VALUES AND RECORD DATA.

EXTENDED PERIOD...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST SOLNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND...CONTINUING OUR WARM AND DRY FORECAST UNDER
A WEST COAST RIDGE. RIDGE HEIGHTS DO BECOME MODIFIED DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDES UP INTO THE PAC NW.
PHASING AND SOLN DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP BEGINNING MON
15/00Z /SUNDAY NIGHT/. DIFFERENCES LIE BETWEEN THE RESOLUTION AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS
CONVECTION OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC/EL NINO REGION. GFS/GEFS
SOLNS MAINTAIN TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESS WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUCH THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CUT OFF AND INTERACT
WITH ANOTHER EAST PAC/BAJA LOW AND BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...EC/GEM/NAEFS SOLNS ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSIASTIC...MAINTAINING RIDGE HEIGHTS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. THE ONE UPSIDE AMONG THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF UL HEIGHTS...WITH A SUBTLE SCALING BACK THE WARMTH FROM
THE WORK WEEK FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL

STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE PHX
AREA TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-MORNING TODAY. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT STRONGER...IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DROPPING BACK AOB
8 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL...IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS CRITERIA. CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...AT KPHX...WINDS MAY TEND TOWARDS LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
NELY WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE...TYPICALLY BY 16-17Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (AOB
6KTS) AT KIPL TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS (10-12 KTS) DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NV. CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH EMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      | 81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      | 83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      | 83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      | 84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 080934
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
234 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN MAJORITY OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT...SPANNING FAR TO THE NORTH INTO YUKON AND NW
TERRITORIES AS WELL AS AK. MEANWHILE...GENERAL AREA OF WEAK/LOWER
HEIGHTS CONTINUES TO PERSIST WEST OF AND OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN UL CIRC CENTER BEST OBSERVED VIA 400MB AND ABOVE
STREAMLINES. CLOUD COVER REMAINS CONFINED TO LOCATIONS JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA.

FORECAST FOR THIS WORK WEEK WILL BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOWER DESERT SITES AND
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE...WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES PEAKING INTO THE MID 560DM RANGE AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING 14 TO 16C EACH AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY GOOD MIXING. THIS
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO PROLONGED PERIODS OF
EASTERLY RIDGETOP/GAP WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX AND NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY. FCST ML/UL WIND
STREAMLINES INDICATE THE RIDGE CIRC CENTER...CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER
CA/OR...TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND OVER SOCAL
DURING THE WEEK. THIS MOTION WILL SHUNT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
ML/UL LOW ANCHORED SLIGHTLY OVER BAJA CA AND ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM OFF TO OUR SE. WESTERN RIDGE HEIGHTS RANK IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE TO MAX RANGE ON NAEFS PERCENTILE TABLES AND FORECAST HIGHS
REFLECT THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH AS WELL. A FEW RECORDS COULD BE AT
STAKE...MOSTLY IN PHOENIX...DURING THE WORK WEEK. PLEASE REFERENCE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE FCST VALUES AND RECORD DATA.

EXTENDED PERIOD...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST SOLNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND...CONTINUING OUR WARM AND DRY FORECAST UNDER
A WEST COAST RIDGE. RIDGE HEIGHTS DO BECOME MODIFIED DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDES UP INTO THE PAC NW.
PHASING AND SOLN DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP BEGINNING MON
15/00Z /SUNDAY NIGHT/. DIFFERENCES LIE BETWEEN THE RESOLUTION AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS
CONVECTION OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC/EL NINO REGION. GFS/GEFS
SOLNS MAINTAIN TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESS WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUCH THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CUT OFF AND INTERACT
WITH ANOTHER EAST PAC/BAJA LOW AND BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...EC/GEM/NAEFS SOLNS ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSIASTIC...MAINTAINING RIDGE HEIGHTS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. THE ONE UPSIDE AMONG THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF UL HEIGHTS...WITH A SUBTLE SCALING BACK THE WARMTH FROM
THE WORK WEEK FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL

STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE PHX
AREA TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT STRONGER...IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK AOB
8 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL...IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS CRITERIA. CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (AOB
6KTS) AT KIPL TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY WITH SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS (10-12 KTS) DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NV. CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      | 81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      | 83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      | 83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      | 84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 080550 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1050 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MILD EVENING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF
THE CWA IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF
THE CWA SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS...THAT IS BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN AZ FROM A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW SITTING JUST
OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CA COAST. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING
THAT THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED BACK OFF TO THE SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE AFOMENTIONED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF THE THE SE. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS STILL LOOK GOOD...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS THIS WEEK. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN FACT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BELOW 5K FT
ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO WED...THU...AND FRI. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THIS ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD VALUES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON THE DESERTS VICINITY PHOENIX...
PARTICULARLY WED.

ON A SIDE NOTE...WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A
GROWING DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FLARED UP IN THIS REGION...FIRST TRIGGERED BY AN
EASTWARD MOVING GRAVITY WAVE...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY BY INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. UNFORTUNATELY THE INCREASING SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN BAJA WILL
STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AZ...BLOCKED BY THE ANOMALOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM/RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

NEXT WEEKEND...

THIS FAR OUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS WITH RESPECT
TO SOME COOLING...OR NOT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN
WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH. WE SORT OF AGREE WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS OF MORE ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
FALLS IN AZ THAN THE GFS MODEL.  A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS DUE TO A LARGE COLD BLOCKING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN U.S...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA...WHICH SHOULD DIG
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...ALBEIT STILL DRY. THE
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN OUR FORECASTS NEXT WEEKEND REFLECT THE
PREMISE ABOVE.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL

STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE PHX
AREA TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-MORNING ON MONDAY...THEN
BECOME A BIT STRONGER...IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK AOB 8 KTS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL...IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS CRITERIA. CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (AOB
6KTS) AT KIPL TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS (10-12 KTS) DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NV.  CLEAR SKIES...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 080550 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1050 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MILD EVENING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF
THE CWA IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF
THE CWA SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS...THAT IS BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN AZ FROM A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW SITTING JUST
OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CA COAST. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING
THAT THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED BACK OFF TO THE SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE AFOMENTIONED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF THE THE SE. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS STILL LOOK GOOD...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS THIS WEEK. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN FACT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BELOW 5K FT
ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO WED...THU...AND FRI. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THIS ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD VALUES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON THE DESERTS VICINITY PHOENIX...
PARTICULARLY WED.

ON A SIDE NOTE...WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A
GROWING DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FLARED UP IN THIS REGION...FIRST TRIGGERED BY AN
EASTWARD MOVING GRAVITY WAVE...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY BY INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. UNFORTUNATELY THE INCREASING SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN BAJA WILL
STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AZ...BLOCKED BY THE ANOMALOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM/RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

NEXT WEEKEND...

THIS FAR OUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS WITH RESPECT
TO SOME COOLING...OR NOT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN
WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH. WE SORT OF AGREE WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS OF MORE ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
FALLS IN AZ THAN THE GFS MODEL.  A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS DUE TO A LARGE COLD BLOCKING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN U.S...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA...WHICH SHOULD DIG
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...ALBEIT STILL DRY. THE
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN OUR FORECASTS NEXT WEEKEND REFLECT THE
PREMISE ABOVE.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL

STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE PHX
AREA TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-MORNING ON MONDAY...THEN
BECOME A BIT STRONGER...IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK AOB 8 KTS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL...IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS CRITERIA. CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (AOB
6KTS) AT KIPL TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS (10-12 KTS) DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NV.  CLEAR SKIES...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 080550 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1050 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MILD EVENING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF
THE CWA IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF
THE CWA SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS...THAT IS BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN AZ FROM A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW SITTING JUST
OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CA COAST. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING
THAT THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED BACK OFF TO THE SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE AFOMENTIONED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF THE THE SE. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS STILL LOOK GOOD...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS THIS WEEK. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN FACT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BELOW 5K FT
ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO WED...THU...AND FRI. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THIS ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD VALUES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON THE DESERTS VICINITY PHOENIX...
PARTICULARLY WED.

ON A SIDE NOTE...WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A
GROWING DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FLARED UP IN THIS REGION...FIRST TRIGGERED BY AN
EASTWARD MOVING GRAVITY WAVE...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY BY INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. UNFORTUNATELY THE INCREASING SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN BAJA WILL
STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AZ...BLOCKED BY THE ANOMALOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM/RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

NEXT WEEKEND...

THIS FAR OUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS WITH RESPECT
TO SOME COOLING...OR NOT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN
WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH. WE SORT OF AGREE WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS OF MORE ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
FALLS IN AZ THAN THE GFS MODEL.  A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS DUE TO A LARGE COLD BLOCKING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN U.S...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA...WHICH SHOULD DIG
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...ALBEIT STILL DRY. THE
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN OUR FORECASTS NEXT WEEKEND REFLECT THE
PREMISE ABOVE.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL

STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE PHX
AREA TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-MORNING ON MONDAY...THEN
BECOME A BIT STRONGER...IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK AOB 8 KTS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL...IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS CRITERIA. CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (AOB
6KTS) AT KIPL TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS (10-12 KTS) DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NV.  CLEAR SKIES...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 080349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

&&

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MILD EVENING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF
THE CWA IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF
THE CWA SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS...THAT IS BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN AZ FROM A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW SITTING JUST
OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CA COAST. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING
THAT THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED BACK OFF TO THE SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE AFOMENTIONED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF THE THE SE. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS STILL LOOK GOOD...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS THIS WEEK. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN FACT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BELOW 5K FT
ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO WED...THU...AND FRI. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THIS ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD VALUES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON THE DESERTS VICINITY PHOENIX...
PARTICULARLY WED.

ON A SIDE NOTE...WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A
GROWING DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FLARED UP IN THIS REGION...FIRST TRIGGERED BY AN
EASTWARD MOVING GRAVITY WAVE...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY BY INCREASING
DIFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. UNFORTUNATELY THE INCREASING SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN BAJA WILL
STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AZ...BLOCKED BY THE ANOMALOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM/RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

NEXT WEEKEND...

THIS FAR OUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS WITH RESPECT
TO SOME COOLING...OR NOT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN
WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH. WE SORT OF AGREE WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS OF MORE ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
FALLS IN AZ THAN THE GFS MODEL.  A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS DUE TO A LARGE COLD BLOCKING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN U.S...CENTERED OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA...WHICH SHOULD DIG
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...ALBEIT STILL DRY. THE
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN OUR FORECASTS NEXT WEEKEND REFLECT THE
PREMISE ABOVE.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS MORE DISTINCTLY
NORTHERLY OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY NORTHEAST. AS
THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITHIN 1-2 KFT AGL WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KTS...FLIRTING
WITH LLWS CRITERIA AT TIMES IN SOME SPOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. NO
CLOUDS OF NOTE JUST SOME MINOR CIRRUS PASSING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 072209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
309 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS THIS WEEK. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN FACT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BELOW 5K FT
ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO WED...THU...AND FRI. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THIS ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD VALUES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON THE DESERTS VICINITY PHOENIX...
PARTICULARLY WED.

ON A SIDE NOTE...WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A
GROWING DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FLARED UP IN THIS REGION...FIRST TRIGGERED BY AN
EASTWARD MOVING GRAVITY WAVE...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY BY INCREASING
DIFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. UNFORTUNATELY THE INCREASING SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN BAJA WILL
STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AZ...BLOCKED BY THE ANOMALOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM/RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

NEXT WEEKEND...

THIS FAR OUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS WITH RESPECT
TO SOME COOLING...OR NOT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN
WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH. WE SORT OF AGREE WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS OF MORE ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
FALLS IN AZ THAN THE GFS MODEL.  A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS DUE TO A LARGE COLD BLOCKING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN U.S...CENTERED OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA...WHICH SHOULD DIG
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...ALBEIT STILL DRY. THE
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN OUR FORECASTS NEXT WEEKEND REFLECT THE
PREMISE ABOVE.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS MORE DISTINCTLY
NORTHERLY OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY NORTHEAST. AS
THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITHIN 1-2 KFT AGL WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KTS...FLIRTING
WITH LLWS CRITERIA AT TIMES IN SOME SPOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. NO
CLOUDS OF NOTE JUST SOME MINOR CIRRUS PASSING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 072209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
309 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS THIS WEEK. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN FACT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BELOW 5K FT
ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO WED...THU...AND FRI. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THIS ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD VALUES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON THE DESERTS VICINITY PHOENIX...
PARTICULARLY WED.

ON A SIDE NOTE...WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A
GROWING DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FLARED UP IN THIS REGION...FIRST TRIGGERED BY AN
EASTWARD MOVING GRAVITY WAVE...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY BY INCREASING
DIFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. UNFORTUNATELY THE INCREASING SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN BAJA WILL
STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AZ...BLOCKED BY THE ANOMALOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM/RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

NEXT WEEKEND...

THIS FAR OUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS WITH RESPECT
TO SOME COOLING...OR NOT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN
WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH. WE SORT OF AGREE WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS OF MORE ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
FALLS IN AZ THAN THE GFS MODEL.  A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS DUE TO A LARGE COLD BLOCKING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN U.S...CENTERED OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA...WHICH SHOULD DIG
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...ALBEIT STILL DRY. THE
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN OUR FORECASTS NEXT WEEKEND REFLECT THE
PREMISE ABOVE.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS MORE DISTINCTLY
NORTHERLY OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY NORTHEAST. AS
THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITHIN 1-2 KFT AGL WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KTS...FLIRTING
WITH LLWS CRITERIA AT TIMES IN SOME SPOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. NO
CLOUDS OF NOTE JUST SOME MINOR CIRRUS PASSING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 072209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
309 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS THIS WEEK. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN FACT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BELOW 5K FT
ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO WED...THU...AND FRI. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THIS ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD VALUES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON THE DESERTS VICINITY PHOENIX...
PARTICULARLY WED.

ON A SIDE NOTE...WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A
GROWING DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FLARED UP IN THIS REGION...FIRST TRIGGERED BY AN
EASTWARD MOVING GRAVITY WAVE...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY BY INCREASING
DIFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. UNFORTUNATELY THE INCREASING SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN BAJA WILL
STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AZ...BLOCKED BY THE ANOMALOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM/RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

NEXT WEEKEND...

THIS FAR OUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS WITH RESPECT
TO SOME COOLING...OR NOT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN
WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH. WE SORT OF AGREE WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS OF MORE ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
FALLS IN AZ THAN THE GFS MODEL.  A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS DUE TO A LARGE COLD BLOCKING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN U.S...CENTERED OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA...WHICH SHOULD DIG
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...ALBEIT STILL DRY. THE
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN OUR FORECASTS NEXT WEEKEND REFLECT THE
PREMISE ABOVE.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS MORE DISTINCTLY
NORTHERLY OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY NORTHEAST. AS
THE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITHIN 1-2 KFT AGL WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KTS...FLIRTING
WITH LLWS CRITERIA AT TIMES IN SOME SPOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. NO
CLOUDS OF NOTE JUST SOME MINOR CIRRUS PASSING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 072138
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
240 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS THIS WEEK. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN FACT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BELOW 5K FT
ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO WED...THU...AND FRI. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THIS ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD VALUES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON THE DESERTS VICINITY PHOENIX...
PARTICULARLY WED.

ON A SIDE NOTE...WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A
GROWING DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FLARED UP IN THIS REGION...FIRST TRIGGERED BY AN
EASTWARD MOVING GRAVITY WAVE...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY BY INCREASING
DIFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. UNFORTUNATELY THE INCREASING SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN BAJA WILL
STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AZ...BLOCKED BY THE ANOMALOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM/RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.


NEXT WEEKEND...

THIS FAR OUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS WITH RESPECT
TO SOME COOLING...OR NOT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN
WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH. WE SORT OF AGREE WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS OF MORE ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
FALLS IN AZ THAN THE GFS MODEL.  A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS DUE TO A LARGE COLD BLOCKING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN U.S...CENTERED OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA...WHICH SHOULD DIG
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...ALBEIT STILL DRY. THE
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN OUR FORECASTS NEXT WEEKEND REFLECT THE
PREMISE ABOVE.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY IN TERMS OF WINDS.
NORTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES ELEVATED IN SPEED...TO CONTINUE FOR KIPL
AND KBLH. ELEVATED JUST-OFF-SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS AND EVENTUALLY MIX OUT NEAR MIDDAY...PROMOTING SFC SPEEDS
10-14KTS POSSIBLE. SPEED DIFFERENCES OF NEAR-SFC WINDS FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS STAY SHORT OF LLWS CRITERIA...BUT STILL WORTH MENTIONING
THE POTENTIAL. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY TRANSITION IN FROM THE
SOUTH...BUT REMAIN THIN IN NATURE AND ABOVE 25KFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 071424
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
725 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
LATER TODAY AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WITH NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...
WITH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
CURRENT DRY FORECASTS WITH WARMER DAYS AHEAD LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES
PLANNED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...358 AM MST...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST
YESTERDAY PUTTING DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. PWAT AT TUS LAST NIGHT WAS DOWN TO JUST 0.11 INCHES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AT 1 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE
20S. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE SEEN LURKING TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA
AND OFF THE SRN BAJA COAST...THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA ANY TIME SOON IF AT ALL. H5 HEIGHTS HAVE CLIMBED IN
EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ AND SOME OF THIS WARM AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN
WORKING TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX YESTERDAY REACHED 74...5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING TO TAKE PLACE
TODAY WITH THE WARMER DESERTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST
THINKING...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING IN EXCESS OF 99 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST BY TUESDAY. THIS
IS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR OUR LOWER
DESERTS FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE WARMER DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 80S...THEN RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BELOW RECORD LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART WE CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
LOCATION HITTING A RECORD SOMETIME FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE AND FAIRLY HIGH UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THEY SHOULD NOT KEEP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN MORE THAN A DEGREE
OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY IN TERMS OF WINDS.
NORTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES ELEVATED IN SPEED...TO CONTINUE FOR KIPL
AND KBLH. ELEVATED JUST-OFF-SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS AND EVENTUALLY MIX OUT NEAR MIDDAY...PROMOTING SFC SPEEDS
10-14KTS POSSIBLE. SPEED DIFFERENCES OF NEAR-SFC WINDS FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS STAY SHORT OF LLWS CRITERIA...BUT STILL WORTH MENTIONING
THE POTENTIAL. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY TRANSITION IN FROM THE
SOUTH...BUT REMAIN THIN IN NATURE AND ABOVE 25KFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 071424
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
725 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
LATER TODAY AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WITH NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...
WITH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
CURRENT DRY FORECASTS WITH WARMER DAYS AHEAD LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES
PLANNED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...358 AM MST...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST
YESTERDAY PUTTING DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. PWAT AT TUS LAST NIGHT WAS DOWN TO JUST 0.11 INCHES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AT 1 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE
20S. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE SEEN LURKING TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA
AND OFF THE SRN BAJA COAST...THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA ANY TIME SOON IF AT ALL. H5 HEIGHTS HAVE CLIMBED IN
EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ AND SOME OF THIS WARM AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN
WORKING TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX YESTERDAY REACHED 74...5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING TO TAKE PLACE
TODAY WITH THE WARMER DESERTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST
THINKING...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING IN EXCESS OF 99 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST BY TUESDAY. THIS
IS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR OUR LOWER
DESERTS FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE WARMER DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 80S...THEN RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BELOW RECORD LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART WE CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
LOCATION HITTING A RECORD SOMETIME FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE AND FAIRLY HIGH UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THEY SHOULD NOT KEEP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN MORE THAN A DEGREE
OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY IN TERMS OF WINDS.
NORTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES ELEVATED IN SPEED...TO CONTINUE FOR KIPL
AND KBLH. ELEVATED JUST-OFF-SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS AND EVENTUALLY MIX OUT NEAR MIDDAY...PROMOTING SFC SPEEDS
10-14KTS POSSIBLE. SPEED DIFFERENCES OF NEAR-SFC WINDS FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS STAY SHORT OF LLWS CRITERIA...BUT STILL WORTH MENTIONING
THE POTENTIAL. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY TRANSITION IN FROM THE
SOUTH...BUT REMAIN THIN IN NATURE AND ABOVE 25KFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 071058
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
358 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST
YESTERDAY PUTTING DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. PWAT AT TUS LAST NIGHT WAS DOWN TO JUST 0.11 INCHES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AT 1 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE
20S. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE SEEN LURKING TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA
AND OFF THE SRN BAJA COAST...THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA ANY TIME SOON IF AT ALL. H5 HEIGHTS HAVE CLIMBED IN
EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ AND SOME OF THIS WARM AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN
WORKING TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX YESTERDAY REACHED 74...5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING TO TAKE PLACE
TODAY WITH THE WARMER DESERTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST
THINKING...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING IN EXCESS OF 99 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST BY TUESDAY. THIS
IS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR OUR LOWER
DESERTS FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE WARMER DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 80S...THEN RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BELOW RECORD LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART WE CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
LOCATION HITTING A RECORD SOMETIME FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE AND FAIRLY HIGH UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THEY SHOULD NOT KEEP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN MORE THAN A DEGREE
OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY IN TERMS OF WINDS.
NORTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES ELEVATED IN SPEED...TO CONTINUE FOR KIPL
AND KBLH. ELEVATED JUST-OFF-SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS AND EVENTUALLY MIX OUT NEAR MIDDAY...PROMOTING SFC SPEEDS
10-14KTS POSSIBLE. SPEED DIFFERENCES OF NEAR-SFC WINDS FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS STAY SHORT OF LLWS CRITERIA...BUT STILL WORTH MENTIONING
THE POTENTIAL. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY TRANSITION IN FROM THE
SOUTH...BUT REMAIN THIN IN NATURE AND ABOVE 25KFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 070900
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST
COAST YESTERDAY PUTTING DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO SERN
CA AND ARIZONA. PWAT AT TUS LAST NIGHT WAS DOWN TO JUST 0.11 INCHES
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AT 1 AM WERE MOSTLY IN
THE 20S. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE SEEN LURKING TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA
AND OFF THE SRN BAJA COAST...THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA ANY TIME SOON IF AT ALL. H5 HEIGHTS HAVE CLIMBED IN
EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ AND SOME OF THIS WARM AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN
WORKING TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX YESTERDAY REACHED
74...5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING TO
TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH THE WARMER DESERTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST
THINKING...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING IN EXCESS OF 99 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST BY TUESDAY. THIS
IS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR OUR LOWER
DESERTS FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE WARMER DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 80S...THEN RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BELOW RECORD LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART WE CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
LOCATION HITTING A RECORD SOMETIME FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE AND FAIRLY HIGH UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THEY SHOULD NOT KEEP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN MORE THAN A DEGREE
OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT /20-25KTS/ ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA BUT WELL
SHORT OF LLWS THRESHOLDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





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