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000
FXUS65 KPSR 200349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
848 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME...AND ALLOW A SLOW
WARMING TREND TO PROGRESS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET WX DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
BANDS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURES JUST A DEGREE ABOVE /OR BELOW/
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE PHX AREA. BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE WEST COAST OFF THE PACIFIC...WITH
SEVERAL N-S ORIENTATED BANDS OF CLOUDS NOTED ON EVENING IR/WV
IMAGERY. LATEST BAND INTO OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY AT THE CO
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THIS BAND WERE MORE WIDESPREAD OR SLOWER IN IT`S
MOVEMENT...IT COULD PLAY A ROLE ON IN ADDING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMTH
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEEM ON THE COOL SIDE
/COMPARED TO MORE MILD READINGS FROM EARLIER IN THE MONTH/ THEY ARE
ON TRACK FOR NEAR NORMAL READINGS...LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FOOTHILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS.

ONLY MINOR UPDATES NEEDED IN THE FORM OF ALIGNING SKY FORECASTS WITH
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PINAL AND YUMA COUNTIES IN AZ AND IMPERIAL COUNTY IN CA.
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM READINGS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND SINCE FOG HAS MADE REPEAT PERFORMANCES OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...FELT ADDING MENTION WOULD NOT HURT. REST
OF THE DRY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...WHICH IS OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 130 PM MST/1230 PM PST/...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO OUR CWA TODAY
AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT IS NOW JUST BEGINNING TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS NOW PUSHED
LIGHT...AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
RISING FROM THEIR PRESENT LEVEL NEAR 570DM UP INTO THE 576-582DM BY
MONDAY...THEN HOLD AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
AIRMASS WARMING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOWER DESERT HIGHS TO WARM FROM
TODAY/S LOW TO MID 60S UP INTO THE 70-75F RANGE BY MONDAY...THEN
HOLD AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES A
BIT OF HIGH-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE REGION. A 2ND
SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT TO OUR CWA FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TO INCREASE WINDS A BIT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO
PUSH EVEN DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC INTO OUR CWA.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH A CHANGE TOWARD COOLER WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY DURING
THIS PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT HAS NOW CROPPED BACK
UP ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS EXPECTED COOLDOWN...WITH THE EURO AND
GEM GOING BACK TO THE IDEA OF A MUCH DEEPER...AND COLDER TROF MOVING
INTO OUR REGION...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS KEEPS THE TROF MUCH FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT
COOLING OVER OUR CWA. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN ALL OF THIS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...WITH LEAVE THE EXTENDED FORECAST ALONE PENDING FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT PERIODS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING BKN TO OVC SKIES AND REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE
20KFT. COULD STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF LIMITED GROUND FOG BY THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR ANY OF
THE TERMINALS TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN EVENING TAF PACKAGES. SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GNLY 8KTS OR LESS...AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 200349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
848 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME...AND ALLOW A SLOW
WARMING TREND TO PROGRESS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET WX DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
BANDS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURES JUST A DEGREE ABOVE /OR BELOW/
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE PHX AREA. BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE WEST COAST OFF THE PACIFIC...WITH
SEVERAL N-S ORIENTATED BANDS OF CLOUDS NOTED ON EVENING IR/WV
IMAGERY. LATEST BAND INTO OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY AT THE CO
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THIS BAND WERE MORE WIDESPREAD OR SLOWER IN IT`S
MOVEMENT...IT COULD PLAY A ROLE ON IN ADDING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMTH
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEEM ON THE COOL SIDE
/COMPARED TO MORE MILD READINGS FROM EARLIER IN THE MONTH/ THEY ARE
ON TRACK FOR NEAR NORMAL READINGS...LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FOOTHILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS.

ONLY MINOR UPDATES NEEDED IN THE FORM OF ALIGNING SKY FORECASTS WITH
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PINAL AND YUMA COUNTIES IN AZ AND IMPERIAL COUNTY IN CA.
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM READINGS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND SINCE FOG HAS MADE REPEAT PERFORMANCES OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...FELT ADDING MENTION WOULD NOT HURT. REST
OF THE DRY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...WHICH IS OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 130 PM MST/1230 PM PST/...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO OUR CWA TODAY
AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT IS NOW JUST BEGINNING TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS NOW PUSHED
LIGHT...AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
RISING FROM THEIR PRESENT LEVEL NEAR 570DM UP INTO THE 576-582DM BY
MONDAY...THEN HOLD AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
AIRMASS WARMING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOWER DESERT HIGHS TO WARM FROM
TODAY/S LOW TO MID 60S UP INTO THE 70-75F RANGE BY MONDAY...THEN
HOLD AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES A
BIT OF HIGH-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE REGION. A 2ND
SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT TO OUR CWA FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TO INCREASE WINDS A BIT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO
PUSH EVEN DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC INTO OUR CWA.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH A CHANGE TOWARD COOLER WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY DURING
THIS PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT HAS NOW CROPPED BACK
UP ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS EXPECTED COOLDOWN...WITH THE EURO AND
GEM GOING BACK TO THE IDEA OF A MUCH DEEPER...AND COLDER TROF MOVING
INTO OUR REGION...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS KEEPS THE TROF MUCH FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT
COOLING OVER OUR CWA. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN ALL OF THIS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...WITH LEAVE THE EXTENDED FORECAST ALONE PENDING FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT PERIODS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING BKN TO OVC SKIES AND REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE
20KFT. COULD STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF LIMITED GROUND FOG BY THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR ANY OF
THE TERMINALS TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN EVENING TAF PACKAGES. SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GNLY 8KTS OR LESS...AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 200349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
848 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME...AND ALLOW A SLOW
WARMING TREND TO PROGRESS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET WX DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
BANDS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURES JUST A DEGREE ABOVE /OR BELOW/
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE PHX AREA. BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE WEST COAST OFF THE PACIFIC...WITH
SEVERAL N-S ORIENTATED BANDS OF CLOUDS NOTED ON EVENING IR/WV
IMAGERY. LATEST BAND INTO OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY AT THE CO
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THIS BAND WERE MORE WIDESPREAD OR SLOWER IN IT`S
MOVEMENT...IT COULD PLAY A ROLE ON IN ADDING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMTH
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEEM ON THE COOL SIDE
/COMPARED TO MORE MILD READINGS FROM EARLIER IN THE MONTH/ THEY ARE
ON TRACK FOR NEAR NORMAL READINGS...LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FOOTHILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS.

ONLY MINOR UPDATES NEEDED IN THE FORM OF ALIGNING SKY FORECASTS WITH
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PINAL AND YUMA COUNTIES IN AZ AND IMPERIAL COUNTY IN CA.
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM READINGS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND SINCE FOG HAS MADE REPEAT PERFORMANCES OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...FELT ADDING MENTION WOULD NOT HURT. REST
OF THE DRY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...WHICH IS OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 130 PM MST/1230 PM PST/...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO OUR CWA TODAY
AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT IS NOW JUST BEGINNING TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS NOW PUSHED
LIGHT...AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
RISING FROM THEIR PRESENT LEVEL NEAR 570DM UP INTO THE 576-582DM BY
MONDAY...THEN HOLD AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
AIRMASS WARMING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOWER DESERT HIGHS TO WARM FROM
TODAY/S LOW TO MID 60S UP INTO THE 70-75F RANGE BY MONDAY...THEN
HOLD AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES A
BIT OF HIGH-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE REGION. A 2ND
SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT TO OUR CWA FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TO INCREASE WINDS A BIT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO
PUSH EVEN DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC INTO OUR CWA.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH A CHANGE TOWARD COOLER WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY DURING
THIS PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT HAS NOW CROPPED BACK
UP ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS EXPECTED COOLDOWN...WITH THE EURO AND
GEM GOING BACK TO THE IDEA OF A MUCH DEEPER...AND COLDER TROF MOVING
INTO OUR REGION...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS KEEPS THE TROF MUCH FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT
COOLING OVER OUR CWA. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN ALL OF THIS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...WITH LEAVE THE EXTENDED FORECAST ALONE PENDING FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT PERIODS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING BKN TO OVC SKIES AND REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE
20KFT. COULD STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF LIMITED GROUND FOG BY THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR ANY OF
THE TERMINALS TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN EVENING TAF PACKAGES. SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GNLY 8KTS OR LESS...AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 200349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
848 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME...AND ALLOW A SLOW
WARMING TREND TO PROGRESS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET WX DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
BANDS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURES JUST A DEGREE ABOVE /OR BELOW/
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE PHX AREA. BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE WEST COAST OFF THE PACIFIC...WITH
SEVERAL N-S ORIENTATED BANDS OF CLOUDS NOTED ON EVENING IR/WV
IMAGERY. LATEST BAND INTO OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY AT THE CO
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THIS BAND WERE MORE WIDESPREAD OR SLOWER IN IT`S
MOVEMENT...IT COULD PLAY A ROLE ON IN ADDING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMTH
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEEM ON THE COOL SIDE
/COMPARED TO MORE MILD READINGS FROM EARLIER IN THE MONTH/ THEY ARE
ON TRACK FOR NEAR NORMAL READINGS...LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FOOTHILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS.

ONLY MINOR UPDATES NEEDED IN THE FORM OF ALIGNING SKY FORECASTS WITH
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PINAL AND YUMA COUNTIES IN AZ AND IMPERIAL COUNTY IN CA.
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM READINGS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND SINCE FOG HAS MADE REPEAT PERFORMANCES OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...FELT ADDING MENTION WOULD NOT HURT. REST
OF THE DRY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...WHICH IS OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 130 PM MST/1230 PM PST/...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO OUR CWA TODAY
AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT IS NOW JUST BEGINNING TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS NOW PUSHED
LIGHT...AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
RISING FROM THEIR PRESENT LEVEL NEAR 570DM UP INTO THE 576-582DM BY
MONDAY...THEN HOLD AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
AIRMASS WARMING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOWER DESERT HIGHS TO WARM FROM
TODAY/S LOW TO MID 60S UP INTO THE 70-75F RANGE BY MONDAY...THEN
HOLD AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES A
BIT OF HIGH-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE REGION. A 2ND
SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT TO OUR CWA FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TO INCREASE WINDS A BIT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO
PUSH EVEN DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC INTO OUR CWA.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH A CHANGE TOWARD COOLER WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY DURING
THIS PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT HAS NOW CROPPED BACK
UP ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS EXPECTED COOLDOWN...WITH THE EURO AND
GEM GOING BACK TO THE IDEA OF A MUCH DEEPER...AND COLDER TROF MOVING
INTO OUR REGION...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS KEEPS THE TROF MUCH FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT
COOLING OVER OUR CWA. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN ALL OF THIS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...WITH LEAVE THE EXTENDED FORECAST ALONE PENDING FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT PERIODS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING BKN TO OVC SKIES AND REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE
20KFT. COULD STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF LIMITED GROUND FOG BY THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR ANY OF
THE TERMINALS TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN EVENING TAF PACKAGES. SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GNLY 8KTS OR LESS...AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 192031
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
130 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME...AND ALLOW A SLOW
WARMING TREND TO PROGRESS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO OUR CWA TODAY
AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT IS NOW JUST BEGINNING TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS NOW PUSHED
LIGHT...AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
RISING FROM THEIR PRESENT LEVEL NEAR 570DM UP INTO THE 576-582DM BY
MONDAY...THEN HOLD AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
AIRMASS WARMING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOWER DESERT HIGHS TO WARM FROM
TODAY/S LOW TO MID 60S UP INTO THE 70-75F RANGE BY MONDAY...THEN
HOLD AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES A
BIT OF HIGH-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE REGION. A 2ND
SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT TO OUR CWA FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TO INCREASE WINDS A BIT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO
PUSH EVEN DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC INTO OUR CWA.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH A CHANGE TOWARD COOLER WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY DURING
THIS PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT HAS NOW CROPPED BACK
UP ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS EXPECTED COOLDOWN...WITH THE EURO AND
GEM GOING BACK TO THE IDEA OF A MUCH DEEPER...AND COLDER TROF MOVING
INTO OUR REGION...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS KEEPS THE TROF MUCH FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT
COOLING OVER OUR CWA. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN ALL OF THIS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...WITH LEAVE THE EXTENDED FORECAST ALONE PENDING FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY PERIODIC
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT. FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVER ERN ARIZONA
WILL BE FAR LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT (AOB 8KT) FOLLOWING THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 191543
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING TO FALL TO SOMEWHAT LOWER LEVELS THEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT MOST
URBAN LOCATIONS...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE RURAL/MORE
REMOTE LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. A PLEASANT DAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM
TIME-TO-TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE VERY SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE
GRIDS...CURRENT GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE STILL LOOKING
GOOD...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THURSDAYS WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH WERE ALREADY SPILLING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
NEVADA AS OF 08Z BUT SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S...NO REPORTS OF FOG QUITE YET. IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM...I WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOW LYING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WILL LIKELY BE A RACE
AGAINST TIME AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN FROM THE NORTH. AT THE
SAME TIME THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP
THE LOWER AZ DESERTS MIXED.

ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGING /AT LEAST 2-3 STDEV ABOVE
CLIMO/ WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINED A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. LOOKING AT TODAYS 00Z RUNS...BOTH OF THESE
MODELS NOW AGREE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD STILL COOL
TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER 60S. WILL MAINTAIN
SINGLE DIGIT CLIMO-LIKE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT THIS POINT
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SLIM.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE YET TO
YIELD MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT BESIDES VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS ON THE
FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. NOT EXPECTING FOG TO AFFECT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FOLLOW
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL...KBLH...

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BECOMING BROKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...BUT IN GENERAL FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR KIPL AND NORTHERLY FOR KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 191543
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING TO FALL TO SOMEWHAT LOWER LEVELS THEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT MOST
URBAN LOCATIONS...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE RURAL/MORE
REMOTE LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. A PLEASANT DAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM
TIME-TO-TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE VERY SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE
GRIDS...CURRENT GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE STILL LOOKING
GOOD...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THURSDAYS WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH WERE ALREADY SPILLING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
NEVADA AS OF 08Z BUT SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S...NO REPORTS OF FOG QUITE YET. IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM...I WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOW LYING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WILL LIKELY BE A RACE
AGAINST TIME AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN FROM THE NORTH. AT THE
SAME TIME THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP
THE LOWER AZ DESERTS MIXED.

ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGING /AT LEAST 2-3 STDEV ABOVE
CLIMO/ WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINED A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. LOOKING AT TODAYS 00Z RUNS...BOTH OF THESE
MODELS NOW AGREE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD STILL COOL
TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER 60S. WILL MAINTAIN
SINGLE DIGIT CLIMO-LIKE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT THIS POINT
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SLIM.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE YET TO
YIELD MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT BESIDES VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS ON THE
FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. NOT EXPECTING FOG TO AFFECT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FOLLOW
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL...KBLH...

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BECOMING BROKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...BUT IN GENERAL FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR KIPL AND NORTHERLY FOR KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 191200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THURSDAYS WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH WERE ALREADY SPILLING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
NEVADA AS OF 08Z BUT SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S...NO REPORTS OF FOG QUITE YET. IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM...I WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOW LYING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WILL LIKELY BE A RACE
AGAINST TIME AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN FROM THE NORTH. AT THE
SAME TIME THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP
THE LOWER AZ DESERTS MIXED.

ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGING /AT LEAST 2-3 STDEV ABOVE
CLIMO/ WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINED A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. LOOKING AT TODAYS 00Z RUNS...BOTH OF THESE
MODELS NOW AGREE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD STILL COOL
TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER 60S. WILL MAINTAIN
SINGLE DIGIT CLIMO-LIKE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT THIS POINT
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SLIM.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE YET TO
YIELD MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT BESIDES VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS ON THE
FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. NOT EXPECTING FOG TO AFFECT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FOLLOW
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL...KBLH...

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BECOMING BROKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...BUT IN GENERAL FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR KIPL AND NORTHERLY FOR KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 191200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THURSDAYS WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH WERE ALREADY SPILLING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
NEVADA AS OF 08Z BUT SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S...NO REPORTS OF FOG QUITE YET. IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM...I WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOW LYING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WILL LIKELY BE A RACE
AGAINST TIME AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN FROM THE NORTH. AT THE
SAME TIME THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP
THE LOWER AZ DESERTS MIXED.

ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGING /AT LEAST 2-3 STDEV ABOVE
CLIMO/ WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINED A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. LOOKING AT TODAYS 00Z RUNS...BOTH OF THESE
MODELS NOW AGREE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD STILL COOL
TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER 60S. WILL MAINTAIN
SINGLE DIGIT CLIMO-LIKE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT THIS POINT
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SLIM.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE YET TO
YIELD MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT BESIDES VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS ON THE
FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. NOT EXPECTING FOG TO AFFECT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FOLLOW
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL...KBLH...

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BECOMING BROKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...BUT IN GENERAL FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR KIPL AND NORTHERLY FOR KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 190829
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
128 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THURSDAYS WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH WERE ALREADY SPILLING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
NEVADA AS OF 08Z BUT SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S...NO REPORTS OF FOG QUITE YET. IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM...I WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOW LYING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WILL LIKELY BE A RACE
AGAINST TIME AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN FROM THE NORTH. AT THE
SAME TIME THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP
THE LOWER AZ DESERTS MIXED.

ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGING /AT LEAST 2-3 STDEV ABOVE
CLIMO/ WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINED A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. LOOKING AT TODAYS 00Z RUNS...BOTH OF THESE
MODELS NOW AGREE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD STILL COOL
TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER 60S. WILL MAINTAIN
SINGLE DIGIT CLIMO-LIKE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT THIS POINT
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SLIM.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND ARE ALREADY
NOTED ON AREA OBS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG NEARBY TERRAIN SLOPES...THAT EVENING IR
COULD BE MISSING. AREA DEWPOINTS REMAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT COULD PROMOTE SOME MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF. OVERNIGHT WINDS TO
FOLLOW TYPICAL SESTRLY HEADINGS...GNLY 8KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHES OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF KIPL. AREA DEWPOINTS
REMAIN HIGH AND THOSE COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD
PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. OVERNIGHT WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR KIPL AND NORTHERLY FOR KBLH...WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT SPEEDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 190829
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
128 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THURSDAYS WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH WERE ALREADY SPILLING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
NEVADA AS OF 08Z BUT SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S...NO REPORTS OF FOG QUITE YET. IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM...I WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOW LYING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WILL LIKELY BE A RACE
AGAINST TIME AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN FROM THE NORTH. AT THE
SAME TIME THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP
THE LOWER AZ DESERTS MIXED.

ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGING /AT LEAST 2-3 STDEV ABOVE
CLIMO/ WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINED A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. LOOKING AT TODAYS 00Z RUNS...BOTH OF THESE
MODELS NOW AGREE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD STILL COOL
TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER 60S. WILL MAINTAIN
SINGLE DIGIT CLIMO-LIKE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT THIS POINT
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SLIM.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND ARE ALREADY
NOTED ON AREA OBS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG NEARBY TERRAIN SLOPES...THAT EVENING IR
COULD BE MISSING. AREA DEWPOINTS REMAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT COULD PROMOTE SOME MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF. OVERNIGHT WINDS TO
FOLLOW TYPICAL SESTRLY HEADINGS...GNLY 8KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHES OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF KIPL. AREA DEWPOINTS
REMAIN HIGH AND THOSE COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD
PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. OVERNIGHT WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR KIPL AND NORTHERLY FOR KBLH...WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT SPEEDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 190414
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
914 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD/SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY CLEARED
TO OUR EAST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOURS OF
INSTABILITY CU TO TRY AND POP OVER THE WARMING DESERT FLOORS. THE
TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS EVIDENT ON AFTERNOON RADAR
LOOPS...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SKIRTING THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO OUR EAST. ALL ACTIVITY...BOTH CU AND RADAR
RETURNS...QUICKLY DIMINISHED AFTER SUNSET. ONLY SOME LIMITED AMOUNTS
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE PENINSULA RANGES OF BAJA AND
FAR SOUTHERN CA AND OVER THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAIN.

MINOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT SKY FORECASTS TO
CURRENT TRENDS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA DEWPOINTS WHEN
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID TO UPPER 40 DEGREE READINGS
STILL HOLDING OVER THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. EXPECT A MUCH COOLER
NIGHT WITHOUT THE INSULATING CLOUD COVER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME AREAS SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF AM FOG...PARTICULARLY DOWN ALONG
THE LOWER GILA RIVER DRAINAGE TOWARDS YUMA AND OVER THE DUNES IN
IMPERIAL COUNTY. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS LOOK SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM 24
HOURS AGO WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS AND A SMALL TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
HOLDING THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN. REST OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ON TRACK...FURTHER DETAILS AVAILABLE IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 125 PM MST/1225 PST/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK...BUT DRY SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION. AFTER HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY...70S ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SE
CA...AND TO THE REST OF OUR LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST
COAST. RELATIVELY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS (AOA 570DM) AND A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW LOWER DESERT HIGHS TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST EURO...GEM...AND OPERATIONAL GFS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A STRONG...AND COLD
LONG-WAVE TROF THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
US...A COOLING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY NEXT
FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 13KM PARALLEL GFS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON
TO A MUCH COLDER SOLN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND ARE ALREADY
NOTED ON AREA OBS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG NEARBY TERRAIN SLOPES...THAT EVENING IR
COULD BE MISSING. AREA DEWPOINTS REMAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT COULD PROMOTE SOME MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF. OVERNIGHT WINDS TO
FOLLOW TYPICAL SESTRLY HEADINGS...GNLY 8KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHES OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF KIPL. AREA DEWPOINTS
REMAIN HIGH AND THOSE COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD
PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. OVERNIGHT WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR KIPL AND NORTHERLY FOR KBLH...WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT SPEEDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN











000
FXUS65 KPSR 182039
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
140 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL...AND MOIST CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
BRING DRY CONDITIONS...AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG...AND COLD
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN US.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE EXPECTED CHANGE TO A DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER REGIME CAN ALREADY
BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGINS
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO EASTERN AZ AND NM. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW
SHOWING A DISTINCT CLEARING TREND ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ...AND INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WHICH IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CLEARING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...WITH THE LAST FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK...BUT DRY SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION. AFTER HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY...70S ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SE
CA...AND TO THE REST OF OUR LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST
COAST. RELATIVELY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS (AOA 570DM) AND A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW LOWER DESERT HIGHS TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST EURO...GEM...AND OPERATIONAL GFS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A STRONG...AND COLD
LONG-WAVE TROF THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
US...A COOLING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY NEXT
FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 13KM PARALLEL GFS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON
TO A MUCH COLDER SOLN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

BREAKS IN CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO SHOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
DEPARTING TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...SCT TO BKN DECKS AT KSDL AND
KPHX 4500FT WILL IMPROVE EVEN MORE BY 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND MOSTLY DIURNAL...AROUND 7-8 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOW IN PLACE AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH TODAY AND SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. MOSTLY DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A FAVOR
FROM THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...DEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 182039
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
140 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL...AND MOIST CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
BRING DRY CONDITIONS...AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG...AND COLD
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN US.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE EXPECTED CHANGE TO A DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER REGIME CAN ALREADY
BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGINS
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO EASTERN AZ AND NM. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW
SHOWING A DISTINCT CLEARING TREND ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ...AND INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WHICH IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CLEARING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...WITH THE LAST FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK...BUT DRY SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION. AFTER HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY...70S ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SE
CA...AND TO THE REST OF OUR LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST
COAST. RELATIVELY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS (AOA 570DM) AND A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW LOWER DESERT HIGHS TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST EURO...GEM...AND OPERATIONAL GFS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A STRONG...AND COLD
LONG-WAVE TROF THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
US...A COOLING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY NEXT
FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 13KM PARALLEL GFS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON
TO A MUCH COLDER SOLN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

BREAKS IN CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO SHOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
DEPARTING TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...SCT TO BKN DECKS AT KSDL AND
KPHX 4500FT WILL IMPROVE EVEN MORE BY 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND MOSTLY DIURNAL...AROUND 7-8 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOW IN PLACE AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH TODAY AND SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. MOSTLY DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A FAVOR
FROM THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...DEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 182024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
125 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL...AND MOIST CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
BRING DRY CONDITIONS...AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG...AND COLD
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN US.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE EXPECTED CHANGE TO A DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER REGIME CAN ALREADY
BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGINS
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO EASTERN AZ AND NM. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW
SHOWING A DISTINCT CLEARING TREND ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ...AND INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WHICH IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CLEARING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...WITH THE LAST FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK...BUT DRY SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION. AFTER HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY...70S ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SE
CA...AND TO THE REST OF OUR LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST
COAST. RELATIVELY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS (AOA 570DM) AND A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW LOWER DESERT HIGHS TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST EURO...GEM...AND OPERATIONAL GFS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A STRONG...AND COLD
LONG-WAVE TROF THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
US...A COOLING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY NEXT
FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 13KM PARALLEL GFS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON
TO A MUCH COLDER SOLN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS CONFINED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF PHOENIX. CIGS
FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD. WILL BEGIN TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
LATE MORNING AND CLOUD DECKS SHOULD MAINLY BE SCATTERED STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 182024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
125 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL...AND MOIST CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
BRING DRY CONDITIONS...AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG...AND COLD
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN US.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE EXPECTED CHANGE TO A DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER REGIME CAN ALREADY
BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGINS
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO EASTERN AZ AND NM. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW
SHOWING A DISTINCT CLEARING TREND ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ...AND INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WHICH IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CLEARING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...WITH THE LAST FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK...BUT DRY SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION. AFTER HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY...70S ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SE
CA...AND TO THE REST OF OUR LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST
COAST. RELATIVELY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS (AOA 570DM) AND A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW LOWER DESERT HIGHS TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST EURO...GEM...AND OPERATIONAL GFS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A STRONG...AND COLD
LONG-WAVE TROF THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
US...A COOLING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY NEXT
FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 13KM PARALLEL GFS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON
TO A MUCH COLDER SOLN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS CONFINED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF PHOENIX. CIGS
FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD. WILL BEGIN TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
LATE MORNING AND CLOUD DECKS SHOULD MAINLY BE SCATTERED STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 181536
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
835 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA AS THE LAST
IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS NOW MOVING ACROSS
NW MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH THE MARICOPA FLOOD CONTROL GAGES SHOWING A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING FROM THESE SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT RADAR TREND ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND OF THESE
SHOWERS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED SPRINKLES
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AS THEY PASS OVER THE PHOENIX AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS...WILL
LEAVE THE CHANCE-LEVEL POPS ALONE IN THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST
PRODUCTS FOR NOW. OTHER THAN SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED PRODUCTS LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z...YET REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SUGGESTS ONLY INDICATES VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME MODEST CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MEANWHILE SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW LOWERING CEILINGS. NEARLY ALL SITES ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
HAVE SEEN CLOUDS THICKEN UP QUITE A BIT SINCE LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE MID 40S.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK...THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND
12Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP
WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF
SKIES CLEAR AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND
SPC SSEO SUGGEST AFTERNOON SHOWERS WOULD BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AND THIS MATCHES THE INHERITED
FORECAST CLOSELY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL COMMENCE ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
FLOW. SHOULD HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG 500MB RIDGING ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE REAL WARM-UP TO BEGIN. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH NIL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD TO NEXT FRIDAY...THERE ARE
SOME PRETTY NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS. WHILE BOTH MODELS INDICATE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN BRINGS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA WITH SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE MUCH HIGHER COURTESY OF
THE EUROPEAN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH...NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS
THE EUROPEAN. WILL SORT OUT THE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY WARRANT WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS CONFINED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF PHOENIX. CIGS
FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD. WILL BEGIN TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
LATE MORNING AND CLOUD DECKS SHOULD MAINLY BE SCATTERED STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 181238
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
538 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z...YET REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SUGGESTS ONLY INDICATES VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME MODEST CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MEANWHILE SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW LOWERING CEILINGS. NEARLY ALL SITES ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
HAVE SEEN CLOUDS THICKEN UP QUITE A BIT SINCE LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE MID 40S.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK...THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND
12Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP
WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF
SKIES CLEAR AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND
SPC SSEO SUGGEST AFTERNOON SHOWERS WOULD BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AND THIS MATCHES THE INHERITED
FORECAST CLOSELY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL COMMENCE ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
FLOW. SHOULD HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG 500MB RIDGING ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE REAL WARM-UP TO BEGIN. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH NIL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD TO NEXT FRIDAY...THERE ARE
SOME PRETTY NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS. WHILE BOTH MODELS INDICATE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN BRINGS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA WITH SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE MUCH HIGHER COURTESY OF
THE EUROPEAN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH...NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS
THE EUROPEAN. WILL SORT OUT THE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY WARRANT WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS CONFINED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF PHOENIX. CIGS
FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD. WILL BEGIN TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
LATE MORNING AND CLOUD DECKS SHOULD MAINLY BE SCATTERED STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 181238
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
538 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z...YET REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SUGGESTS ONLY INDICATES VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME MODEST CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MEANWHILE SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW LOWERING CEILINGS. NEARLY ALL SITES ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
HAVE SEEN CLOUDS THICKEN UP QUITE A BIT SINCE LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE MID 40S.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK...THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND
12Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP
WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF
SKIES CLEAR AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND
SPC SSEO SUGGEST AFTERNOON SHOWERS WOULD BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AND THIS MATCHES THE INHERITED
FORECAST CLOSELY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL COMMENCE ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
FLOW. SHOULD HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG 500MB RIDGING ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE REAL WARM-UP TO BEGIN. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH NIL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD TO NEXT FRIDAY...THERE ARE
SOME PRETTY NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS. WHILE BOTH MODELS INDICATE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN BRINGS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA WITH SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE MUCH HIGHER COURTESY OF
THE EUROPEAN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH...NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS
THE EUROPEAN. WILL SORT OUT THE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY WARRANT WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS CONFINED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF PHOENIX. CIGS
FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD. WILL BEGIN TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
LATE MORNING AND CLOUD DECKS SHOULD MAINLY BE SCATTERED STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 181238
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
538 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z...YET REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SUGGESTS ONLY INDICATES VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME MODEST CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MEANWHILE SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW LOWERING CEILINGS. NEARLY ALL SITES ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
HAVE SEEN CLOUDS THICKEN UP QUITE A BIT SINCE LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE MID 40S.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK...THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND
12Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP
WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF
SKIES CLEAR AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND
SPC SSEO SUGGEST AFTERNOON SHOWERS WOULD BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AND THIS MATCHES THE INHERITED
FORECAST CLOSELY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL COMMENCE ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
FLOW. SHOULD HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG 500MB RIDGING ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE REAL WARM-UP TO BEGIN. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH NIL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD TO NEXT FRIDAY...THERE ARE
SOME PRETTY NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS. WHILE BOTH MODELS INDICATE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN BRINGS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA WITH SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE MUCH HIGHER COURTESY OF
THE EUROPEAN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH...NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS
THE EUROPEAN. WILL SORT OUT THE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY WARRANT WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS CONFINED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF PHOENIX. CIGS
FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD. WILL BEGIN TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
LATE MORNING AND CLOUD DECKS SHOULD MAINLY BE SCATTERED STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 181238
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
538 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z...YET REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SUGGESTS ONLY INDICATES VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME MODEST CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MEANWHILE SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW LOWERING CEILINGS. NEARLY ALL SITES ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
HAVE SEEN CLOUDS THICKEN UP QUITE A BIT SINCE LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE MID 40S.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK...THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND
12Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP
WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF
SKIES CLEAR AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND
SPC SSEO SUGGEST AFTERNOON SHOWERS WOULD BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AND THIS MATCHES THE INHERITED
FORECAST CLOSELY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL COMMENCE ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
FLOW. SHOULD HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG 500MB RIDGING ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE REAL WARM-UP TO BEGIN. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH NIL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD TO NEXT FRIDAY...THERE ARE
SOME PRETTY NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS. WHILE BOTH MODELS INDICATE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN BRINGS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA WITH SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE MUCH HIGHER COURTESY OF
THE EUROPEAN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH...NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS
THE EUROPEAN. WILL SORT OUT THE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY WARRANT WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS CONFINED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF PHOENIX. CIGS
FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD. WILL BEGIN TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
LATE MORNING AND CLOUD DECKS SHOULD MAINLY BE SCATTERED STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 180852
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
151 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z...YET REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SUGGESTS ONLY INDICATES VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME MODEST CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MEANWHILE SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW LOWERING CEILINGS. NEARLY ALL SITES ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
HAVE SEEN CLOUDS THICKEN UP QUITE A BIT SINCE LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE MID 40S.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK...THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND
12Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP
WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF
SKIES CLEAR AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND
SPC SSEO SUGGEST AFTERNOON SHOWERS WOULD BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AND THIS MATCHES THE INHERITED
FORECAST CLOSELY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL COMMENCE ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
FLOW. SHOULD HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG 500MB RIDGING ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE REAL WARM-UP TO BEGIN. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH NIL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD TO NEXT FRIDAY...THERE ARE
SOME PRETTY NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS. WHILE BOTH MODELS INDICATE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN BRINGS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA WITH SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE MUCH HIGHER COURTESY OF
THE EUROPEAN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH...NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS
THE EUROPEAN. WILL SORT OUT THE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY WARRANT WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
PHOENIX METRO LEAVING POCKETS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CIGS GNLY AOA
5KFT. A STRAY SHOWER COULD SKIRT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE
NEXT ROUND OF ORGANIZED...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MID-MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONCERN PERTAINS TO
AIRFIELD VSBYS DUE TO ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AIR POLLUTION
GENERATING HAZE AND SLANT VSBY ISSUES. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLE VICINITY...FOR KSDL AND KIWA TOWARDS
THE MORNING. INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MIGHT PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OTHER THAN VCFG IN THE KIWA TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT UNDER 6KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
ADDITIONAL LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST...BUT BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT AREAS
OF HAZE/MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IMPACTING AIRFIELD VSBYS AND
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR KIPL THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECTING CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY LATE MORNING...AS THE LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ENDS. NO WIND ISSUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL CHANGE TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO GRADUALLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WARMING STARTING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DAY TO
DAY AS BOTH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
DESPITE THE DRYING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 180852
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
151 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z...YET REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SUGGESTS ONLY INDICATES VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME MODEST CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MEANWHILE SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW LOWERING CEILINGS. NEARLY ALL SITES ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
HAVE SEEN CLOUDS THICKEN UP QUITE A BIT SINCE LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE MID 40S.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK...THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND
12Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP
WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF
SKIES CLEAR AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND
SPC SSEO SUGGEST AFTERNOON SHOWERS WOULD BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AND THIS MATCHES THE INHERITED
FORECAST CLOSELY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL COMMENCE ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
FLOW. SHOULD HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG 500MB RIDGING ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE REAL WARM-UP TO BEGIN. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH NIL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD TO NEXT FRIDAY...THERE ARE
SOME PRETTY NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS. WHILE BOTH MODELS INDICATE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN BRINGS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA WITH SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE MUCH HIGHER COURTESY OF
THE EUROPEAN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH...NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS
THE EUROPEAN. WILL SORT OUT THE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY WARRANT WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
PHOENIX METRO LEAVING POCKETS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CIGS GNLY AOA
5KFT. A STRAY SHOWER COULD SKIRT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE
NEXT ROUND OF ORGANIZED...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MID-MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONCERN PERTAINS TO
AIRFIELD VSBYS DUE TO ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AIR POLLUTION
GENERATING HAZE AND SLANT VSBY ISSUES. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLE VICINITY...FOR KSDL AND KIWA TOWARDS
THE MORNING. INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MIGHT PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OTHER THAN VCFG IN THE KIWA TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT UNDER 6KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
ADDITIONAL LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST...BUT BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT AREAS
OF HAZE/MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IMPACTING AIRFIELD VSBYS AND
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR KIPL THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECTING CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY LATE MORNING...AS THE LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ENDS. NO WIND ISSUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL CHANGE TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO GRADUALLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WARMING STARTING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DAY TO
DAY AS BOTH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
DESPITE THE DRYING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 180852
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
151 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z...YET REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SUGGESTS ONLY INDICATES VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME MODEST CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MEANWHILE SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW LOWERING CEILINGS. NEARLY ALL SITES ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
HAVE SEEN CLOUDS THICKEN UP QUITE A BIT SINCE LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE MID 40S.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK...THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND
12Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP
WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF
SKIES CLEAR AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND
SPC SSEO SUGGEST AFTERNOON SHOWERS WOULD BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AND THIS MATCHES THE INHERITED
FORECAST CLOSELY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL COMMENCE ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
FLOW. SHOULD HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG 500MB RIDGING ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE REAL WARM-UP TO BEGIN. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH NIL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD TO NEXT FRIDAY...THERE ARE
SOME PRETTY NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS. WHILE BOTH MODELS INDICATE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN BRINGS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA WITH SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE MUCH HIGHER COURTESY OF
THE EUROPEAN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH...NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS
THE EUROPEAN. WILL SORT OUT THE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY WARRANT WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
PHOENIX METRO LEAVING POCKETS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CIGS GNLY AOA
5KFT. A STRAY SHOWER COULD SKIRT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE
NEXT ROUND OF ORGANIZED...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MID-MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONCERN PERTAINS TO
AIRFIELD VSBYS DUE TO ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AIR POLLUTION
GENERATING HAZE AND SLANT VSBY ISSUES. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLE VICINITY...FOR KSDL AND KIWA TOWARDS
THE MORNING. INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MIGHT PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OTHER THAN VCFG IN THE KIWA TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT UNDER 6KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
ADDITIONAL LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST...BUT BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT AREAS
OF HAZE/MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IMPACTING AIRFIELD VSBYS AND
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR KIPL THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECTING CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY LATE MORNING...AS THE LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ENDS. NO WIND ISSUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL CHANGE TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO GRADUALLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WARMING STARTING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DAY TO
DAY AS BOTH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
DESPITE THE DRYING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 180852
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
151 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z...YET REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SUGGESTS ONLY INDICATES VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME MODEST CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MEANWHILE SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW LOWERING CEILINGS. NEARLY ALL SITES ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
HAVE SEEN CLOUDS THICKEN UP QUITE A BIT SINCE LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE MID 40S.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK...THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND
12Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP
WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF
SKIES CLEAR AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND
SPC SSEO SUGGEST AFTERNOON SHOWERS WOULD BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AND THIS MATCHES THE INHERITED
FORECAST CLOSELY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL COMMENCE ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
FLOW. SHOULD HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG 500MB RIDGING ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE REAL WARM-UP TO BEGIN. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH NIL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD TO NEXT FRIDAY...THERE ARE
SOME PRETTY NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS. WHILE BOTH MODELS INDICATE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN BRINGS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA WITH SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE MUCH HIGHER COURTESY OF
THE EUROPEAN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH...NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS
THE EUROPEAN. WILL SORT OUT THE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY WARRANT WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
PHOENIX METRO LEAVING POCKETS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CIGS GNLY AOA
5KFT. A STRAY SHOWER COULD SKIRT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE
NEXT ROUND OF ORGANIZED...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MID-MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONCERN PERTAINS TO
AIRFIELD VSBYS DUE TO ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AIR POLLUTION
GENERATING HAZE AND SLANT VSBY ISSUES. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLE VICINITY...FOR KSDL AND KIWA TOWARDS
THE MORNING. INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MIGHT PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OTHER THAN VCFG IN THE KIWA TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT UNDER 6KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
ADDITIONAL LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST...BUT BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT AREAS
OF HAZE/MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IMPACTING AIRFIELD VSBYS AND
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR KIPL THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECTING CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY LATE MORNING...AS THE LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ENDS. NO WIND ISSUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL CHANGE TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO GRADUALLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WARMING STARTING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DAY TO
DAY AS BOTH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
DESPITE THE DRYING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 180510
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST TWO IN A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELEVATED
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
ANTICIPATED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY
AND SOUTHEAST AZ THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER KEPT
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES.
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ONLY PEAKED AT 61F. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA WERE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE PASSING SHOWERS...SAVE FOR ONE
STRONGER THUNDERSHOWER THAT TREKKED ALONG INTERSTATE 10 FROM BLYTHE
TOWARDS QUARTZSITE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES WERE QUICK TO CLEAR
OUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY...WITH INSTABILITY CU AND
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY DROPPING A QUICK THREE TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT THE BLYTHE AIRPORT.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM...LATEST HI-RES AND 00Z
GFS/NAM GUIDANCE TIME OUR NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
QUICKLY WRAPPING AROUND 19/00Z AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CLEARS TO OUR
EAST. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AREA DEWPOINTS REMAIN
ELEVATED AND TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD ACROSS SOME AREAS ARE SEPARATED BY
ONLY A FEW DEGREES. WITH A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME AREAS
WITH PONDED WATER LINGERING FROM TODAY`S RAIN...COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPMENT COULD BE
LIMITED. LEFT MENTION IN THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER GRIDS...WITH AREAS OF
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-8 CORRIDOR NEAR EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL AND
TOWARDS YUMA AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONING BACK INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ DESERTS. OTHER GRID UPDATES INCLUDED HOURLY GRID UPDATES FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AS THEY WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
FORECAST MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 115 PM MST/1215 PM PST/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE ONE LAST SHOT OF LIGHT RAINFALL AS THE
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES...WHICH EARLIER HAD BEEN EXPECTED TO
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO...MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUITE LIGHT...RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA UP TO AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BRING
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEY CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COMPLETELY DRY...WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
ARE CONCERNED...AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FROM FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT
STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH IT IS STILL WELL OUT IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS IS BUILDING TOWARD THE IDEA OF A
CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER...AS THE EURO AND GFS NOW BOTH DIG A
VERY DEEP...AND COLD LOW-WAVE TROF SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
PHOENIX METRO LEAVING POCKETS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CIGS GNLY AOA
5KFT. A STRAY SHOWER COULD SKIRT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE
NEXT ROUND OF ORGANIZED...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MID-MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONCERN PERTAINS TO
AIRFIELD VSBYS DUE TO ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AIR POLLUTION
GENERATING HAZE AND SLANT VSBY ISSUES. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLE VICINITY...FOR KSDL AND KIWA TOWARDS
THE MORNING. INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MIGHT PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OTHER THAN VCFG IN THE KIWA TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT UNDER 6KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
ADDITIONAL LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST...BUT BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT AREAS
OF HAZE/MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IMPACTING AIRFIELD VSBYS AND
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR KIPL THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECTING CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY LATE MORNING...AS THE LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ENDS. NO WIND ISSUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL CHANGE TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO GRADUALLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WARMING STARTING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DAY TO
DAY AS BOTH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
DESPITE THE DRYING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB










000
FXUS65 KPSR 180510
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST TWO IN A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELEVATED
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
ANTICIPATED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY
AND SOUTHEAST AZ THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER KEPT
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES.
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ONLY PEAKED AT 61F. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA WERE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE PASSING SHOWERS...SAVE FOR ONE
STRONGER THUNDERSHOWER THAT TREKKED ALONG INTERSTATE 10 FROM BLYTHE
TOWARDS QUARTZSITE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES WERE QUICK TO CLEAR
OUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY...WITH INSTABILITY CU AND
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY DROPPING A QUICK THREE TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT THE BLYTHE AIRPORT.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM...LATEST HI-RES AND 00Z
GFS/NAM GUIDANCE TIME OUR NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
QUICKLY WRAPPING AROUND 19/00Z AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CLEARS TO OUR
EAST. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AREA DEWPOINTS REMAIN
ELEVATED AND TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD ACROSS SOME AREAS ARE SEPARATED BY
ONLY A FEW DEGREES. WITH A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME AREAS
WITH PONDED WATER LINGERING FROM TODAY`S RAIN...COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPMENT COULD BE
LIMITED. LEFT MENTION IN THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER GRIDS...WITH AREAS OF
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-8 CORRIDOR NEAR EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL AND
TOWARDS YUMA AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONING BACK INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ DESERTS. OTHER GRID UPDATES INCLUDED HOURLY GRID UPDATES FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AS THEY WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
FORECAST MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 115 PM MST/1215 PM PST/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE ONE LAST SHOT OF LIGHT RAINFALL AS THE
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES...WHICH EARLIER HAD BEEN EXPECTED TO
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO...MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUITE LIGHT...RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA UP TO AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BRING
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEY CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COMPLETELY DRY...WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
ARE CONCERNED...AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FROM FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT
STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH IT IS STILL WELL OUT IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS IS BUILDING TOWARD THE IDEA OF A
CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER...AS THE EURO AND GFS NOW BOTH DIG A
VERY DEEP...AND COLD LOW-WAVE TROF SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
PHOENIX METRO LEAVING POCKETS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CIGS GNLY AOA
5KFT. A STRAY SHOWER COULD SKIRT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE
NEXT ROUND OF ORGANIZED...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MID-MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONCERN PERTAINS TO
AIRFIELD VSBYS DUE TO ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AIR POLLUTION
GENERATING HAZE AND SLANT VSBY ISSUES. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLE VICINITY...FOR KSDL AND KIWA TOWARDS
THE MORNING. INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MIGHT PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OTHER THAN VCFG IN THE KIWA TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT UNDER 6KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
ADDITIONAL LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST...BUT BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT AREAS
OF HAZE/MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IMPACTING AIRFIELD VSBYS AND
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR KIPL THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECTING CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY LATE MORNING...AS THE LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ENDS. NO WIND ISSUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL CHANGE TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO GRADUALLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WARMING STARTING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DAY TO
DAY AS BOTH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
DESPITE THE DRYING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB









000
FXUS65 KPSR 172012
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
115 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST TWO IN A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELEVATED
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
ANTICIPATED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTER A WET EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH SAW
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 0.05 INCH TO AS MUCH AS 0.25
INCH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD AT THIS
TIME ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF WEAK...BUT RATHER MOIST SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE SHOWERS...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
AND THE LACK OF ANY GOOD FORCING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...RANGING FROM AROUND 0.10 OF A INCH ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA UP TO 0.25 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN...SNOWFALL...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000FT...WITH MAYBE A
DUSTING AT MOST ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...LIGHT WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME CLEARING LATER
TONIGHT COULD ALSO ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM AS WELL.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE ONE LAST SHOT OF LIGHT RAINFALL AS THE
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES...WHICH EARLIER HAD BEEN EXPECTED TO
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO...MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUITE LIGHT...RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA UP TO AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BRING
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEY CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COMPLETELY DRY...WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
ARE CONCERNED...AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FROM FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT
STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH IT IS STILL WELL OUT IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS IS BUILDING TOWARD THE IDEA OF A
CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER...AS THE EURO AND GFS NOW BOTH DIG A
VERY DEEP...AND COLD LOW-WAVE TROF SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE PHOENIX AREA TAF SITES
SHOULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A
HAZARD...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS...HOWEVER
CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN. EXPECTING MOSTLY 5K FEET
CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN/MIST TO STAY 6 TO 8 MILES DURING THE
EVENING RUSH HOURS AT THE TAF SITES...NOT TO RULE OUT 2K CIGS AT
KSDL AND KIWA ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX 6K TO 10K FEET CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED ON APPROACH TO KPHX.
EXPECT CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE GREATLY AFTER 05Z THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PHOENIX AIR FIELDS 15Z THROUGH 21Z.

ONE LAST NOTE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER AT SOME POINT TODAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOST
LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL/KBLH...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS
TONIGHT. CIGS MAY DROP NEAR OR BELOW 4K FEET AT TIMES AT BOTH TAF
SITES AND MAYBE DOWN NEAR 3K FEET AT DUE TO FOG/MIST. COULD SEE
BRIEF DROP IN VSBYS BELOW 5SM IN FOG/MIST THIS EVENING OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING CLEARING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...AS THE LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ENDS. NO WIND ISSUES NEXT
24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL CHANGE TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO GRADUALLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WARMING STARTING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DAY TO
DAY AS BOTH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
DESPITE THE DRYING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...DEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 172012
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
115 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST TWO IN A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELEVATED
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
ANTICIPATED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTER A WET EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH SAW
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 0.05 INCH TO AS MUCH AS 0.25
INCH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD AT THIS
TIME ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF WEAK...BUT RATHER MOIST SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE SHOWERS...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
AND THE LACK OF ANY GOOD FORCING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...RANGING FROM AROUND 0.10 OF A INCH ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA UP TO 0.25 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN...SNOWFALL...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000FT...WITH MAYBE A
DUSTING AT MOST ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...LIGHT WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME CLEARING LATER
TONIGHT COULD ALSO ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM AS WELL.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE ONE LAST SHOT OF LIGHT RAINFALL AS THE
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES...WHICH EARLIER HAD BEEN EXPECTED TO
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO...MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUITE LIGHT...RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA UP TO AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BRING
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEY CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COMPLETELY DRY...WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
ARE CONCERNED...AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FROM FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT
STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH IT IS STILL WELL OUT IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS IS BUILDING TOWARD THE IDEA OF A
CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER...AS THE EURO AND GFS NOW BOTH DIG A
VERY DEEP...AND COLD LOW-WAVE TROF SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE PHOENIX AREA TAF SITES
SHOULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A
HAZARD...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS...HOWEVER
CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN. EXPECTING MOSTLY 5K FEET
CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN/MIST TO STAY 6 TO 8 MILES DURING THE
EVENING RUSH HOURS AT THE TAF SITES...NOT TO RULE OUT 2K CIGS AT
KSDL AND KIWA ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX 6K TO 10K FEET CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED ON APPROACH TO KPHX.
EXPECT CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE GREATLY AFTER 05Z THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PHOENIX AIR FIELDS 15Z THROUGH 21Z.

ONE LAST NOTE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER AT SOME POINT TODAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOST
LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL/KBLH...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS
TONIGHT. CIGS MAY DROP NEAR OR BELOW 4K FEET AT TIMES AT BOTH TAF
SITES AND MAYBE DOWN NEAR 3K FEET AT DUE TO FOG/MIST. COULD SEE
BRIEF DROP IN VSBYS BELOW 5SM IN FOG/MIST THIS EVENING OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING CLEARING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...AS THE LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ENDS. NO WIND ISSUES NEXT
24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL CHANGE TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO GRADUALLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WARMING STARTING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DAY TO
DAY AS BOTH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
DESPITE THE DRYING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...DEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 171539
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY CONFINED
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A WET EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH SAW
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 0.05 INCH TO AS MUCH AS 0.25
INCH...A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL IS TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME AS THE
SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT RAINFALL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
THIS DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF SE
CA...APPROACHES THE GREATER PHX AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE REGION...A STRAY SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER OVER SE CA IS
CONCERNED...ALONG WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...THE COMBINATION OF A
LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ALLOWING AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
MIDDAY AS SFC TEMPS WARM. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHER THAN
ADDING SOME FOG TO THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING OVER SE CA...INHERITED FORECASTS ARE STILL LOOKING
GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE THE MAIN RAIN EVENT FOR
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH ARIZONA
WITH ONE PV ANOMALY SITUATED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER AND
ANOTHER COMING IN BEHIND FROM CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL LAST EVENING
SWEPT THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BRINGING UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO
INTO PIMA COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS PUSHING EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER
SUNRISE. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE
AVAILABLE CAPE WHERE THE STORMS ARE NOW ISN/T EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRIMMED SOMEWHAT IN MOST
AREAS...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SHOULD STILL PICK UP A THIRD TO A
HALF AN INCH.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY LATE
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
DESERTS AND CHANCES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS
WILL BARELY CREEP PAST 60 DEGREES.

THE NEXT AND LIKELY LAST PV ANOMALY IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND
LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX
DUE TO WEAKER OMEGA COMPARED TO TODAY/S WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM TRACES TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE DESERTS TO UP A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN GILA COUNTY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST DRYING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...ONLY
EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...BACK
TOWARD OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. BEYOND SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER HIGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
JET STREAM AND ANY TROUGHS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS HEIGHTS RISE...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPTICK
IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AREAS OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE RUSH
HOUR...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 4K FEET AT TIMES...INCLUDING AT
KPHX. SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BETWEEN IMPULSES...WITH A FEW MORE
SHOWERS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING EXPECT ANOTHER
DECREASE IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS AS ANOTHER SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER
MOVES IN. ANOTHER FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FINAL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT WET AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER
CIGS AT TIMES...DOWN BELOW 4K FEET IN RAIN SHOWERS. MAY SEE ISOLD
INSTANCES OF VISIBILITY BELOW 5SM IN RAIN/MIST AT TIMES AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST PART.

ONE LAST NOTE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER AT SOME POINT TODAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOST
LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL/KBLH...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS 2 MORE WEATHER IMPULSES MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE
AREA. CIGS MAY DROP NEAR OR BELOW 6K FEET AT TIMES AT BOTH TAF SITES
AND MAYBE DOWN NEAR 3K FEET AT KBLH WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
GREATER. COULD SEE ISOLD VSBYS BELOW 5SM IN MIST AT KBLH THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE
LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ENDS. NO WIND ISSUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL CHANGE TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO GRADUALLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WARMING STARTING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DAY TO
DAY AS BOTH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
DESPITE THE DRYING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB














000
FXUS65 KPSR 171539
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY CONFINED
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A WET EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH SAW
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 0.05 INCH TO AS MUCH AS 0.25
INCH...A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL IS TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME AS THE
SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT RAINFALL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
THIS DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF SE
CA...APPROACHES THE GREATER PHX AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE REGION...A STRAY SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER OVER SE CA IS
CONCERNED...ALONG WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...THE COMBINATION OF A
LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ALLOWING AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
MIDDAY AS SFC TEMPS WARM. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHER THAN
ADDING SOME FOG TO THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING OVER SE CA...INHERITED FORECASTS ARE STILL LOOKING
GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE THE MAIN RAIN EVENT FOR
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH ARIZONA
WITH ONE PV ANOMALY SITUATED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER AND
ANOTHER COMING IN BEHIND FROM CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL LAST EVENING
SWEPT THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BRINGING UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO
INTO PIMA COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS PUSHING EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER
SUNRISE. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE
AVAILABLE CAPE WHERE THE STORMS ARE NOW ISN/T EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRIMMED SOMEWHAT IN MOST
AREAS...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SHOULD STILL PICK UP A THIRD TO A
HALF AN INCH.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY LATE
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
DESERTS AND CHANCES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS
WILL BARELY CREEP PAST 60 DEGREES.

THE NEXT AND LIKELY LAST PV ANOMALY IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND
LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX
DUE TO WEAKER OMEGA COMPARED TO TODAY/S WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM TRACES TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE DESERTS TO UP A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN GILA COUNTY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST DRYING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...ONLY
EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...BACK
TOWARD OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. BEYOND SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER HIGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
JET STREAM AND ANY TROUGHS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS HEIGHTS RISE...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPTICK
IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AREAS OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE RUSH
HOUR...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 4K FEET AT TIMES...INCLUDING AT
KPHX. SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BETWEEN IMPULSES...WITH A FEW MORE
SHOWERS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING EXPECT ANOTHER
DECREASE IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS AS ANOTHER SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER
MOVES IN. ANOTHER FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FINAL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT WET AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER
CIGS AT TIMES...DOWN BELOW 4K FEET IN RAIN SHOWERS. MAY SEE ISOLD
INSTANCES OF VISIBILITY BELOW 5SM IN RAIN/MIST AT TIMES AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST PART.

ONE LAST NOTE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER AT SOME POINT TODAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOST
LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL/KBLH...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS 2 MORE WEATHER IMPULSES MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE
AREA. CIGS MAY DROP NEAR OR BELOW 6K FEET AT TIMES AT BOTH TAF SITES
AND MAYBE DOWN NEAR 3K FEET AT KBLH WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
GREATER. COULD SEE ISOLD VSBYS BELOW 5SM IN MIST AT KBLH THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE
LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ENDS. NO WIND ISSUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL CHANGE TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO GRADUALLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WARMING STARTING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DAY TO
DAY AS BOTH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
DESPITE THE DRYING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB













000
FXUS65 KPSR 171145 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY CONFINED
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE THE MAIN RAIN EVENT FOR
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH ARIZONA
WITH ONE PV ANOMALY SITUATED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER AND
ANOTHER COMING IN BEHIND FROM CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL LAST EVENING
SWEPT THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BRINGING UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO
INTO PIMA COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS PUSHING EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER
SUNRISE. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE
AVAILABLE CAPE WHERE THE STORMS ARE NOW ISN/T EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRIMMED SOMEWHAT IN MOST
AREAS...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SHOULD STILL PICK UP A THIRD TO A
HALF AN INCH.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY LATE
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
DESERTS AND CHANCES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS
WILL BARELY CREEP PAST 60 DEGREES.

THE NEXT AND LIKELY LAST PV ANOMALY IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND
LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX
DUE TO WEAKER OMEGA COMPARED TO TODAY/S WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM TRACES TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE DESERTS TO UP A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN GILA COUNTY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST DRYING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...ONLY
EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...BACK
TOWARD OR JUST ABOVE NORMALS. BEYOND SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER HIGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
JET STREAM AND ANY TROUGHS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS HEIGHTS RISE...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPTICK
IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AREAS OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE RUSH
HOUR...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 4K FEET AT TIMES...INCLUDING AT
KPHX. SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BETWEEN IMPULSES...WITH A FEW MORE
SHOWERS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING EXPECT ANOTHER
DECREASE IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS AS ANOTHER SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER
MOVES IN. ANOTHER FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FINAL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT WET AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER
CIGS AT TIMES...DOWN BELOW 4K FEET IN RAIN SHOWERS. MAY SEE ISOLD
INSTANCES OF VISIBILITY BELOW 5SM IN RAIN/MIST AT TIMES AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST PART.

ONE LAST NOTE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER AT SOME POINT TODAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOST
LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL/KBLH...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS 2 MORE WEATHER IMPULSES MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE
AREA. CIGS MAY DROP NEAR OR BELOW 6K FEET AT TIMES AT BOTH TAF SITES
AND MAYBE DOWN NEAR 3K FEET AT KBLH WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
GREATER. COULD SEE ISOLD VSBYS BELOW 5SM IN MIST AT KBLH THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE
LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ENDS. NO WIND ISSUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL CHANGE TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO GRADUALLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WARMING STARTING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DAY TO
DAY AS BOTH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
DESPITE THE DRYING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB











000
FXUS65 KPSR 171145 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY CONFINED
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE THE MAIN RAIN EVENT FOR
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH ARIZONA
WITH ONE PV ANOMALY SITUATED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER AND
ANOTHER COMING IN BEHIND FROM CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL LAST EVENING
SWEPT THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BRINGING UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO
INTO PIMA COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS PUSHING EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER
SUNRISE. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE
AVAILABLE CAPE WHERE THE STORMS ARE NOW ISN/T EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRIMMED SOMEWHAT IN MOST
AREAS...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SHOULD STILL PICK UP A THIRD TO A
HALF AN INCH.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY LATE
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
DESERTS AND CHANCES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS
WILL BARELY CREEP PAST 60 DEGREES.

THE NEXT AND LIKELY LAST PV ANOMALY IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND
LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX
DUE TO WEAKER OMEGA COMPARED TO TODAY/S WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM TRACES TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE DESERTS TO UP A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN GILA COUNTY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST DRYING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...ONLY
EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...BACK
TOWARD OR JUST ABOVE NORMALS. BEYOND SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER HIGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
JET STREAM AND ANY TROUGHS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS HEIGHTS RISE...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPTICK
IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AREAS OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE RUSH
HOUR...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 4K FEET AT TIMES...INCLUDING AT
KPHX. SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BETWEEN IMPULSES...WITH A FEW MORE
SHOWERS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING EXPECT ANOTHER
DECREASE IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS AS ANOTHER SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER
MOVES IN. ANOTHER FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FINAL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT WET AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER
CIGS AT TIMES...DOWN BELOW 4K FEET IN RAIN SHOWERS. MAY SEE ISOLD
INSTANCES OF VISIBILITY BELOW 5SM IN RAIN/MIST AT TIMES AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST PART.

ONE LAST NOTE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER AT SOME POINT TODAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOST
LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL/KBLH...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS 2 MORE WEATHER IMPULSES MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE
AREA. CIGS MAY DROP NEAR OR BELOW 6K FEET AT TIMES AT BOTH TAF SITES
AND MAYBE DOWN NEAR 3K FEET AT KBLH WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
GREATER. COULD SEE ISOLD VSBYS BELOW 5SM IN MIST AT KBLH THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE
LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ENDS. NO WIND ISSUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL CHANGE TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO GRADUALLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WARMING STARTING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DAY TO
DAY AS BOTH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
DESPITE THE DRYING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB










000
FXUS65 KPSR 170954
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
254 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY CONFINED
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE THE MAIN RAIN EVENT FOR
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH ARIZONA
WITH ONE PV ANOMALY SITUATED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER AND
ANOTHER COMING IN BEHIND FROM CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL LAST EVENING
SWEPT THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BRINGING UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO
INTO PIMA COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS PUSHING EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER
SUNRISE. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE
AVAILABLE CAPE WHERE THE STORMS ARE NOW ISN/T EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRIMMED SOMEWHAT IN MOST
AREAS...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SHOULD STILL PICK UP A THIRD TO A
HALF AN INCH.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY LATE
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
DESERTS AND CHANCES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS
WILL BARELY CREEP PAST 60 DEGREES.

THE NEXT AND LIKELY LAST PV ANOMALY IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND
LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX
DUE TO WEAKER OMEGA COMPARED TO TODAY/S WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM TRACES TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE DESERTS TO UP A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN GILA COUNTY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST DRYING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...ONLY
EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...BACK
TOWARD OR JUST ABOVE NORMALS. BEYOND SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER HIGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
JET STREAM AND ANY TROUGHS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS HEIGHTS RISE...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPTICK
IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 6-8KFT OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE DESERTS. WILL MENTION A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPORARY CLEARING AROUND MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED IN NATURE AND I WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS
POINT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT/VRB THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL/KBLH...
SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THERE
SHOULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AT BOTH TAF SITES.
COULD SEE SOME FOG/MIST AT BLH WHICH HAS SEEN MORE RAIN THAN IPL BUT
NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE PARTICULARLY DENSE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT LIKE PHOENIX...WILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WET PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 40
PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY AN INLAND
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS...MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE
DESERTS ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BREEZY NORTH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS ON SUNDAY...MOSTLY DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...CB








000
FXUS65 KPSR 170954
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
254 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY CONFINED
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE THE MAIN RAIN EVENT FOR
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH ARIZONA
WITH ONE PV ANOMALY SITUATED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER AND
ANOTHER COMING IN BEHIND FROM CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL LAST EVENING
SWEPT THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BRINGING UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO
INTO PIMA COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS PUSHING EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER
SUNRISE. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE
AVAILABLE CAPE WHERE THE STORMS ARE NOW ISN/T EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRIMMED SOMEWHAT IN MOST
AREAS...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SHOULD STILL PICK UP A THIRD TO A
HALF AN INCH.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY LATE
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
DESERTS AND CHANCES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS
WILL BARELY CREEP PAST 60 DEGREES.

THE NEXT AND LIKELY LAST PV ANOMALY IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND
LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX
DUE TO WEAKER OMEGA COMPARED TO TODAY/S WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM TRACES TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE DESERTS TO UP A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN GILA COUNTY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST DRYING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...ONLY
EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...BACK
TOWARD OR JUST ABOVE NORMALS. BEYOND SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER HIGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
JET STREAM AND ANY TROUGHS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS HEIGHTS RISE...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPTICK
IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 6-8KFT OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE DESERTS. WILL MENTION A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPORARY CLEARING AROUND MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED IN NATURE AND I WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS
POINT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT/VRB THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL/KBLH...
SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THERE
SHOULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AT BOTH TAF SITES.
COULD SEE SOME FOG/MIST AT BLH WHICH HAS SEEN MORE RAIN THAN IPL BUT
NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE PARTICULARLY DENSE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT LIKE PHOENIX...WILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WET PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 40
PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY AN INLAND
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS...MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE
DESERTS ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BREEZY NORTH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS ON SUNDAY...MOSTLY DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 170954
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
254 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY CONFINED
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE THE MAIN RAIN EVENT FOR
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH ARIZONA
WITH ONE PV ANOMALY SITUATED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER AND
ANOTHER COMING IN BEHIND FROM CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL LAST EVENING
SWEPT THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BRINGING UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO
INTO PIMA COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS PUSHING EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER
SUNRISE. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE
AVAILABLE CAPE WHERE THE STORMS ARE NOW ISN/T EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRIMMED SOMEWHAT IN MOST
AREAS...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SHOULD STILL PICK UP A THIRD TO A
HALF AN INCH.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY LATE
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
DESERTS AND CHANCES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS
WILL BARELY CREEP PAST 60 DEGREES.

THE NEXT AND LIKELY LAST PV ANOMALY IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND
LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX
DUE TO WEAKER OMEGA COMPARED TO TODAY/S WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM TRACES TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE DESERTS TO UP A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN GILA COUNTY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST DRYING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...ONLY
EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...BACK
TOWARD OR JUST ABOVE NORMALS. BEYOND SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER HIGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
JET STREAM AND ANY TROUGHS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS HEIGHTS RISE...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPTICK
IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 6-8KFT OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE DESERTS. WILL MENTION A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPORARY CLEARING AROUND MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED IN NATURE AND I WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS
POINT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT/VRB THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL/KBLH...
SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THERE
SHOULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AT BOTH TAF SITES.
COULD SEE SOME FOG/MIST AT BLH WHICH HAS SEEN MORE RAIN THAN IPL BUT
NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE PARTICULARLY DENSE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT LIKE PHOENIX...WILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WET PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 40
PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY AN INLAND
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS...MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE
DESERTS ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BREEZY NORTH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS ON SUNDAY...MOSTLY DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...CB








000
FXUS65 KPSR 170954
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
254 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY CONFINED
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE THE MAIN RAIN EVENT FOR
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH ARIZONA
WITH ONE PV ANOMALY SITUATED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER AND
ANOTHER COMING IN BEHIND FROM CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL LAST EVENING
SWEPT THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BRINGING UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO
INTO PIMA COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS PUSHING EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER
SUNRISE. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE
AVAILABLE CAPE WHERE THE STORMS ARE NOW ISN/T EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRIMMED SOMEWHAT IN MOST
AREAS...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SHOULD STILL PICK UP A THIRD TO A
HALF AN INCH.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY LATE
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
DESERTS AND CHANCES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS
WILL BARELY CREEP PAST 60 DEGREES.

THE NEXT AND LIKELY LAST PV ANOMALY IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND
LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX
DUE TO WEAKER OMEGA COMPARED TO TODAY/S WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM TRACES TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE DESERTS TO UP A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN GILA COUNTY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST DRYING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...ONLY
EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...BACK
TOWARD OR JUST ABOVE NORMALS. BEYOND SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER HIGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
JET STREAM AND ANY TROUGHS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS HEIGHTS RISE...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPTICK
IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 6-8KFT OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE DESERTS. WILL MENTION A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPORARY CLEARING AROUND MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED IN NATURE AND I WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS
POINT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT/VRB THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL/KBLH...
SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THERE
SHOULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AT BOTH TAF SITES.
COULD SEE SOME FOG/MIST AT BLH WHICH HAS SEEN MORE RAIN THAN IPL BUT
NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE PARTICULARLY DENSE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT LIKE PHOENIX...WILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WET PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 40
PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY AN INLAND
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS...MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE
DESERTS ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BREEZY NORTH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS ON SUNDAY...MOSTLY DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...CB







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