Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KPSR 021120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL RETURN INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY...SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ. BY
FRIDAY...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASED HUMIDITIES...CLOUDINESS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET EVENING CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMPARING DEWPOINT READINGS FROM THOSE 24 HRS AGO IT IS HARD TO
DISCERN ANY SORT OF TREND...WITH VALUES HIGHER OR LOWER BY ONLY A FEW
TO UP TO 20 DEGREES OF DIFFERENCE AT VARYING SURFACE SITES. LOOKING
HIGHER THROUGH THE WHOLE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...MEASURED/OBSERVED PWATS
LAST EVENING WERE HOLDING BELOW NORMAL VALUES - AT 67 PERCENT NORMAL
IN FLAGSTAFF WITH 0.45 INCHES AND FAIRING A BIT BETTER DOWN TUCSON-
WAY AT 85 PERCENT WITH 0.82 INCHES. WATER VAPOR AND 02/00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR SOUTH WITH CONTINUED
DRY WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC. FAIRLY STEADY STATE
FORECAST IN STORE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE BROADER MEAN WIND FLOW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
COLUMN OVER WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

UPPER RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/RELOCATE TO OUR EAST BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS TO MORE FAVORABLE
MONSOON HEADINGS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE NAM...STILL TRIES BRINGING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. WHILE THE GFS HAS HAD SOME RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...STILL NOT SOLD WE`LL SEE WETTING
PRECIP ON THE DESERT FLOORS THAT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA SHAFTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BELOW 500MB. WHEN EVALUATING
THE COLUMN AS A WHOLE...1 INCH AND ABOVE PWATS RETURN TO AREA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT TRICKIER...AS WE SEE A DECENT RETURN OF
MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH BY WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR ENERGY TO SEE
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A DEEPER MOISTURE SURFACE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 10-12C READINGS HEADING INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. FELT INTRODUCING AT LEAST 10
PERCENT POP/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONING DOWN THROUGH MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE PHX METRO...WAS WARRANTED. WHILE ORGANIZED
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...TRAVELING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED PULSE STORM ACTIVITY. DURING THIS SAME PERIOD...TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP DOWN FROM THE PAC NW OFF THE NORTHERN CA
COAST...MAINTAINING DRIER FLOW OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST CA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE
RETURN OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDS WILL HELP REIGN IN OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS FOR THE LATE WEEK.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TROPICAL INFLUENCE IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CURRENT AREA OF
INTEREST OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 2 TO 5 DAYS INTO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING CLOSER
TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. WITH CONTINUED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TROPICAL STORM TRACK ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH AND RESIDENCE TIME OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH...FELT A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND WAS WARRANTED. PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED GIVEN DECENT
EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOISTURE AND CAPE/OMEGA FIELDS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES HOLDING EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN IN
MOISTURE PLACEMENT AND INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE TROUGH
TO OUR NW...WITH THE LATEST EURO SOLUTION IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOISTURE EXPANSION ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA. BOTTOM LINE...POTENTIAL IS
THERE AND CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING FOR A RETURN OF
SEVERAL STORMY DAYS AND EVENINGS THAT MAY LAST INTO IN THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE PROBABILITIES CALL FOR AN EXTENDED
WINDOW OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION. WITH THE
UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY TO CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDY SKIES...A COOL DOWN OF WELCOME PROPORTIONS WILL RESULT FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL BEST PERFORMING AND CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS COOLING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW 100F BY MONDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z WED...VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HUMIDITIES
WILL TREND HIGHER WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TREND IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20
PERCENT THURSDAY...TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT BY MONDAY. DIURNAL AFTERNOON
WINDS EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. RECOVERY AT NIGHT WILL
BE A FUNCTION OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 021120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL RETURN INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY...SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ. BY
FRIDAY...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASED HUMIDITIES...CLOUDINESS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET EVENING CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMPARING DEWPOINT READINGS FROM THOSE 24 HRS AGO IT IS HARD TO
DISCERN ANY SORT OF TREND...WITH VALUES HIGHER OR LOWER BY ONLY A FEW
TO UP TO 20 DEGREES OF DIFFERENCE AT VARYING SURFACE SITES. LOOKING
HIGHER THROUGH THE WHOLE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...MEASURED/OBSERVED PWATS
LAST EVENING WERE HOLDING BELOW NORMAL VALUES - AT 67 PERCENT NORMAL
IN FLAGSTAFF WITH 0.45 INCHES AND FAIRING A BIT BETTER DOWN TUCSON-
WAY AT 85 PERCENT WITH 0.82 INCHES. WATER VAPOR AND 02/00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR SOUTH WITH CONTINUED
DRY WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC. FAIRLY STEADY STATE
FORECAST IN STORE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE BROADER MEAN WIND FLOW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
COLUMN OVER WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

UPPER RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/RELOCATE TO OUR EAST BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS TO MORE FAVORABLE
MONSOON HEADINGS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE NAM...STILL TRIES BRINGING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. WHILE THE GFS HAS HAD SOME RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...STILL NOT SOLD WE`LL SEE WETTING
PRECIP ON THE DESERT FLOORS THAT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA SHAFTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BELOW 500MB. WHEN EVALUATING
THE COLUMN AS A WHOLE...1 INCH AND ABOVE PWATS RETURN TO AREA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT TRICKIER...AS WE SEE A DECENT RETURN OF
MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH BY WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR ENERGY TO SEE
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A DEEPER MOISTURE SURFACE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 10-12C READINGS HEADING INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. FELT INTRODUCING AT LEAST 10
PERCENT POP/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONING DOWN THROUGH MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE PHX METRO...WAS WARRANTED. WHILE ORGANIZED
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...TRAVELING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED PULSE STORM ACTIVITY. DURING THIS SAME PERIOD...TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP DOWN FROM THE PAC NW OFF THE NORTHERN CA
COAST...MAINTAINING DRIER FLOW OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST CA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE
RETURN OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDS WILL HELP REIGN IN OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS FOR THE LATE WEEK.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TROPICAL INFLUENCE IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CURRENT AREA OF
INTEREST OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 2 TO 5 DAYS INTO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING CLOSER
TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. WITH CONTINUED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TROPICAL STORM TRACK ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH AND RESIDENCE TIME OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH...FELT A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND WAS WARRANTED. PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED GIVEN DECENT
EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOISTURE AND CAPE/OMEGA FIELDS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES HOLDING EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN IN
MOISTURE PLACEMENT AND INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE TROUGH
TO OUR NW...WITH THE LATEST EURO SOLUTION IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOISTURE EXPANSION ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA. BOTTOM LINE...POTENTIAL IS
THERE AND CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING FOR A RETURN OF
SEVERAL STORMY DAYS AND EVENINGS THAT MAY LAST INTO IN THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE PROBABILITIES CALL FOR AN EXTENDED
WINDOW OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION. WITH THE
UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY TO CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDY SKIES...A COOL DOWN OF WELCOME PROPORTIONS WILL RESULT FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL BEST PERFORMING AND CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS COOLING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW 100F BY MONDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z WED...VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HUMIDITIES
WILL TREND HIGHER WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TREND IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20
PERCENT THURSDAY...TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT BY MONDAY. DIURNAL AFTERNOON
WINDS EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. RECOVERY AT NIGHT WILL
BE A FUNCTION OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 021031 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
331 AM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL RETURN INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY...SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ. BY
FRIDAY...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASED HUMIDITIES...CLOUDINESS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET EVENING CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMPARING DEWPOINT READINGS FROM THOSE 24 HRS AGO IT IS HARD TO
DISCERN ANY SORT OF TREND...WITH VALUES HIGHER OR LOWER BY ONLY A FEW
TO UP TO 20 DEGREES OF DIFFERENCE AT VARYING SURFACE SITES. LOOKING
HIGHER THROUGH THE WHOLE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...MEASURED/OBSERVED PWATS
LAST EVENING WERE HOLDING BELOW NORMAL VALUES - AT 67 PERCENT NORMAL
IN FLAGSTAFF WITH 0.45 INCHES AND FAIRING A BIT BETTER DOWN TUCSON-
WAY AT 85 PERCENT WITH 0.82 INCHES. WATER VAPOR AND 02/00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR SOUTH WITH CONTINUED
DRY WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC. FAIRLY STEADY STATE
FORECAST IN STORE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE BROADER MEAN WIND FLOW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
COLUMN OVER WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

UPPER RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/RELOCATE TO OUR EAST BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS TO MORE FAVORABLE
MONSOON HEADINGS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE NAM...STILL TRIES BRINGING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. WHILE THE GFS HAS HAD SOME RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...STILL NOT SOLD WE`LL SEE WETTING
PRECIP ON THE DESERT FLOORS THAT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA SHAFTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BELOW 500MB. WHEN EVALUATING
THE COLUMN AS A WHOLE...1 INCH AND ABOVE PWATS RETURN TO AREA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT TRICKIER...AS WE SEE A DECENT RETURN OF
MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH BY WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR ENERGY TO SEE
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A DEEPER MOISTURE SURFACE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 10-12C READINGS HEADING INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. FELT INTRODUCING AT LEAST 10
PERCENT POP/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONING DOWN THROUGH MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE PHX METRO...WAS WARRANTED. WHILE ORGANIZED
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...TRAVELING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED PULSE STORM ACTIVITY. DURING THIS SAME PERIOD...TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP DOWN FROM THE PAC NW OFF THE NORTHERN CA
COAST...MAINTAINING DRIER FLOW OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST CA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE
RETURN OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDS WILL HELP REIGN IN OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS FOR THE LATE WEEK.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TROPICAL INFLUENCE IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CURRENT AREA OF
INTEREST OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 2 TO 5 DAYS INTO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING CLOSER
TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. WITH CONTINUED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TROPICAL STORM TRACK ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH AND RESIDENCE TIME OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH...FELT A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND WAS WARRANTED. PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED GIVEN DECENT
EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOISTURE AND CAPE/OMEGA FIELDS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES HOLDING EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN IN
MOISTURE PLACEMENT AND INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE TROUGH
TO OUR NW...WITH THE LATEST EURO SOLUTION IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOISTURE EXPANSION ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA. BOTTOM LINE...POTENTIAL IS
THERE AND CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING FOR A RETURN OF
SEVERAL STORMY DAYS AND EVENINGS THAT MAY LAST INTO IN THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE PROBABILITIES CALL FOR AN EXTENDED
WINDOW OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION. WITH THE
UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY TO CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDY SKIES...A COOL DOWN OF WELCOME PROPORTIONS WILL RESULT FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL BEST PERFORMING AND CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS COOLING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW 100F BY MONDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...WILL KEEPS SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIODS...WITH WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
AN UPTREND IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ACCORDINGLY
HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD. OVER
THE WEEKEND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES CLIMB WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM DISTANT
STORMS ALSO RETURNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 021030
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 AM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL RETURN INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY...SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ. BY
FRIDAY...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASED HUMIDITIES...CLOUDINESS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET EVENING CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMPARING DEWPOINT READINGS FROM THOSE 24 HRS AGO IT IS HARD TO
DISCERN ANY SORT OF TREND...WITH VALUES HIGHER OR LOWER BY ONLY A FEW
TO UP TO 20 DEGREES OF DIFFERENCE AT VARYING SURFACE SITES. LOOKING
HIGHER THROUGH THE WHOLE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...MEASURED/OBSERVED PWATS
LAST EVENING WERE HOLDING BELOW NORMAL VALUES - AT 67 PERCENT NORMAL
IN FLAGSTAFF WITH 0.45 INCHES AND FAIRING A BIT BETTER DOWN TUCSON-
WAY AT 85 PERCENT WITH 0.82 INCHES. WATER VAPOR AND 02/00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR SOUTH WITH CONTINUED
DRY WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC. FAIRLY
STEADY STATE FORECAST IN STORE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY..WITH .LITTLE
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE BROADER MEAN WIND FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

UPPER RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/RELOCATE TO OUR EAST BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS TO MORE FAVORABLE
MONSOON HEADINGS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE NAM...STILL TRIES BRINGING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. WHILE THE GFS HAS HAD SOME RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...STILL NOT SOLD WE`LL SEE WETTING
PRECIP ON THE DESERT FLOORS THAT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA SHAFTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BELOW 500MB. WHEN EVALUATING
THE COLUMN AS A WHOLE...1 INCH AND ABOVE PWATS RETURN TO AREA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT TRICKIER...AS WE SEE A DECENT RETURN OF
MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH BY WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR ENERGY TO SEE
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A DEEPER MOISTURE SURFACE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 10-12C READINGS HEADING INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. FELT INTRODUCING AT LEAST 10
PERCENT POP/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONING DOWN THROUGH MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE PHX METRO...WAS WARRANTED. WHILE ORGANIZED
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...TRAVELING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED PULSE STORM ACTIVITY. DURING THIS SAME PERIOD...TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP DOWN FROM THE PAC NW OFF THE NORTHERN CA
COAST...MAINTAINING DRIER FLOW OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST CA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE
RETURN OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDS WILL HELP REIGN IN OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS FOR THE LATE WEEK.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TROPICAL INFLUENCE IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CURRENT AREA OF
INTEREST OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 2 TO 5 DAYS INTO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING CLOSER
TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. WITH CONTINUED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TROPICAL STORM TRACK ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH AND RESIDENCE TIME OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH...FELT A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND WAS WARRANTED. PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED GIVEN DECENT
EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOISTURE AND CAPE/OMEGA FIELDS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES HOLDING EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN IN
MOISTURE PLACEMENT AND INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE TROUGH
TO OUR NW...WITH THE LATEST EURO SOLUTION IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOISTURE EXPANSION ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA. BOTTOM LINE...POTENTIAL IS
THERE AND CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING FOR A RETURN OF
SEVERAL STORMY DAYS AND EVENINGS THAT MAY LAST INTO IN THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE PROBABILITIES CALL FOR AN EXTENDED
WINDOW OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION. WITH THE
UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY TO CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDY SKIES...A COOL DOWN OF WELCOME PROPORTIONS WILL RESULT FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL BEST PERFORMING AND CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS COOLING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW 100F BY MONDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...WILL KEEPS SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIODS...WITH WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
AN UPTREND IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ACCORDINGLY
HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD. OVER
THE WEEKEND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES CLIMB WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM DISTANT
STORMS ALSO RETURNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 021030
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 AM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL RETURN INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY...SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ. BY
FRIDAY...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASED HUMIDITIES...CLOUDINESS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET EVENING CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMPARING DEWPOINT READINGS FROM THOSE 24 HRS AGO IT IS HARD TO
DISCERN ANY SORT OF TREND...WITH VALUES HIGHER OR LOWER BY ONLY A FEW
TO UP TO 20 DEGREES OF DIFFERENCE AT VARYING SURFACE SITES. LOOKING
HIGHER THROUGH THE WHOLE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...MEASURED/OBSERVED PWATS
LAST EVENING WERE HOLDING BELOW NORMAL VALUES - AT 67 PERCENT NORMAL
IN FLAGSTAFF WITH 0.45 INCHES AND FAIRING A BIT BETTER DOWN TUCSON-
WAY AT 85 PERCENT WITH 0.82 INCHES. WATER VAPOR AND 02/00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR SOUTH WITH CONTINUED
DRY WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC. FAIRLY
STEADY STATE FORECAST IN STORE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY..WITH .LITTLE
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE BROADER MEAN WIND FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

UPPER RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/RELOCATE TO OUR EAST BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS TO MORE FAVORABLE
MONSOON HEADINGS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE NAM...STILL TRIES BRINGING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. WHILE THE GFS HAS HAD SOME RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...STILL NOT SOLD WE`LL SEE WETTING
PRECIP ON THE DESERT FLOORS THAT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA SHAFTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BELOW 500MB. WHEN EVALUATING
THE COLUMN AS A WHOLE...1 INCH AND ABOVE PWATS RETURN TO AREA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT TRICKIER...AS WE SEE A DECENT RETURN OF
MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH BY WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR ENERGY TO SEE
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A DEEPER MOISTURE SURFACE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 10-12C READINGS HEADING INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. FELT INTRODUCING AT LEAST 10
PERCENT POP/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONING DOWN THROUGH MARICOPA
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE PHX METRO...WAS WARRANTED. WHILE ORGANIZED
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...TRAVELING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED PULSE STORM ACTIVITY. DURING THIS SAME PERIOD...TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP DOWN FROM THE PAC NW OFF THE NORTHERN CA
COAST...MAINTAINING DRIER FLOW OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST CA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE
RETURN OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDS WILL HELP REIGN IN OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS FOR THE LATE WEEK.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TROPICAL INFLUENCE IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CURRENT AREA OF
INTEREST OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 2 TO 5 DAYS INTO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING CLOSER
TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. WITH CONTINUED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TROPICAL STORM TRACK ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH AND RESIDENCE TIME OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH...FELT A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND WAS WARRANTED. PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED GIVEN DECENT
EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOISTURE AND CAPE/OMEGA FIELDS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES HOLDING EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN IN
MOISTURE PLACEMENT AND INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE TROUGH
TO OUR NW...WITH THE LATEST EURO SOLUTION IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOISTURE EXPANSION ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA. BOTTOM LINE...POTENTIAL IS
THERE AND CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING FOR A RETURN OF
SEVERAL STORMY DAYS AND EVENINGS THAT MAY LAST INTO IN THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE PROBABILITIES CALL FOR AN EXTENDED
WINDOW OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION. WITH THE
UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY TO CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDY SKIES...A COOL DOWN OF WELCOME PROPORTIONS WILL RESULT FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL BEST PERFORMING AND CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS COOLING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW 100F BY MONDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...WILL KEEPS SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIODS...WITH WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
AN UPTREND IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ACCORDINGLY
HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD. OVER
THE WEEKEND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES CLIMB WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM DISTANT
STORMS ALSO RETURNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 020524 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1025 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT...AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WITH PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REPORTING A
HIGH OF 108 TODAY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FAR AS
THE VERY SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN SOME VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS...INHERITED
GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP QUITE WELL...AND
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM THE PAC NW TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PWATS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM APPROX 0.4
TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. NOT SURPRISINGLY THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP ONCE AGAIN...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS /LOWER 100S/
ALREADY EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR 1 SEPTEMBER.

THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK WILL REMAIN ONE OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE. H5 HEIGHTS WILL VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY AND A BLEND OF
THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 105-110 RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TODAYS 12Z GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE DESERTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT BUYING INTO THIS
SOLUTION AS POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DESERTS DEPICT A VERY
UNFAVORABLE DRY LAYER BELOW 500MB. MORE FAVORABLE BL DO NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHEN CLIMO-LIKE POPS
WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN
TROUGH FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF. WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR
SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND
ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND
BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO
HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...WILL KEEPS SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIODS...WITH WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
AN UPTREND IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ACCORDINGLY
HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD. OVER
THE WEEKEND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES CLIMB WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM DISTANT
STORMS ALSO RETURNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 020524 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1025 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT...AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WITH PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REPORTING A
HIGH OF 108 TODAY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FAR AS
THE VERY SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN SOME VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS...INHERITED
GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP QUITE WELL...AND
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM THE PAC NW TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PWATS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM APPROX 0.4
TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. NOT SURPRISINGLY THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP ONCE AGAIN...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS /LOWER 100S/
ALREADY EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR 1 SEPTEMBER.

THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK WILL REMAIN ONE OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE. H5 HEIGHTS WILL VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY AND A BLEND OF
THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 105-110 RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TODAYS 12Z GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE DESERTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT BUYING INTO THIS
SOLUTION AS POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DESERTS DEPICT A VERY
UNFAVORABLE DRY LAYER BELOW 500MB. MORE FAVORABLE BL DO NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHEN CLIMO-LIKE POPS
WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN
TROUGH FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF. WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR
SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND
ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND
BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO
HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...WILL KEEPS SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIODS...WITH WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
AN UPTREND IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ACCORDINGLY
HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD. OVER
THE WEEKEND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES CLIMB WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM DISTANT
STORMS ALSO RETURNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 020305
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT...AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WITH PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REPORTING A
HIGH OF 108 TODAY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FAR AS
THE VERY SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN SOME VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS...INHERITED
GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP QUITE WELL...AND
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM THE PAC NW TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PWATS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM APPROX 0.4
TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. NOT SURPRISINGLY THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP ONCE AGAIN...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS /LOWER 100S/
ALREADY EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR 1 SEPTEMBER.

THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK WILL REMAIN ONE OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE. H5 HEIGHTS WILL VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY AND A BLEND OF
THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 105-110 RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TODAYS 12Z GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE DESERTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT BUYING INTO THIS
SOLUTION AS POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DESERTS DEPICT A VERY
UNFAVORABLE DRY LAYER BELOW 500MB. MORE FAVORABLE BL DO NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHEN CLIMO-LIKE POPS
WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN
TROUGH FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF. WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR
SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND
ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND
BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO
HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
AN UPTREND IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ACCORDINGLY
HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD. OVER
THE WEEKEND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES CLIMB WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM DISTANT
STORMS ALSO RETURNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 020305
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT...AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WITH PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REPORTING A
HIGH OF 108 TODAY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FAR AS
THE VERY SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN SOME VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS...INHERITED
GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP QUITE WELL...AND
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM THE PAC NW TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PWATS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM APPROX 0.4
TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. NOT SURPRISINGLY THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP ONCE AGAIN...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS /LOWER 100S/
ALREADY EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR 1 SEPTEMBER.

THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK WILL REMAIN ONE OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE. H5 HEIGHTS WILL VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY AND A BLEND OF
THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 105-110 RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TODAYS 12Z GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE DESERTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT BUYING INTO THIS
SOLUTION AS POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DESERTS DEPICT A VERY
UNFAVORABLE DRY LAYER BELOW 500MB. MORE FAVORABLE BL DO NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHEN CLIMO-LIKE POPS
WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN
TROUGH FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF. WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR
SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND
ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND
BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO
HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
AN UPTREND IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ACCORDINGLY
HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD. OVER
THE WEEKEND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES CLIMB WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM DISTANT
STORMS ALSO RETURNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 012211 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM THE PAC NW TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PWATS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM APPROX 0.4
TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. NOT SURPRISINGLY THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP ONCE AGAIN...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS /LOWER 100S/
ALREADY EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR 1 SEPTEMBER.

THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK WILL REMAIN ONE OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE. H5 HEIGHTS WILL VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY AND A BLEND OF
THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 105-110 RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TODAYS 12Z GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE DESERTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT BUYING INTO THIS
SOLUTION AS POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DESERTS DEPICT A VERY
UNFAVORABLE DRY LAYER BELOW 500MB. MORE FAVORABLE BL DO NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHEN CLIMO-LIKE POPS
WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN
TROUGH FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF. WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR
SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND
ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND
BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO
HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
AN UPTREND IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ACCORDINGLY
HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD. OVER
THE WEEKEND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES CLIMB WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM DISTANT
STORMS ALSO RETURNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 012211 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM THE PAC NW TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PWATS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM APPROX 0.4
TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. NOT SURPRISINGLY THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP ONCE AGAIN...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS /LOWER 100S/
ALREADY EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR 1 SEPTEMBER.

THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK WILL REMAIN ONE OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE. H5 HEIGHTS WILL VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY AND A BLEND OF
THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 105-110 RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TODAYS 12Z GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE DESERTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT BUYING INTO THIS
SOLUTION AS POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DESERTS DEPICT A VERY
UNFAVORABLE DRY LAYER BELOW 500MB. MORE FAVORABLE BL DO NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHEN CLIMO-LIKE POPS
WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN
TROUGH FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF. WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR
SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND
ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND
BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO
HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
AN UPTREND IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ACCORDINGLY
HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD. OVER
THE WEEKEND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES CLIMB WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM DISTANT
STORMS ALSO RETURNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 012051
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
151 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM THE PAC NW TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PWATS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM APPROX 0.4
TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. NOT SURPRISINGLY THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP ONCE AGAIN...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS /LOWER 100S/
ALREADY EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR 1 SEPTEMBER.

THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK WILL REMAIN ONE OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE. H5 HEIGHTS WILL VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY AND A BLEND OF
THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 105-110 RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TODAYS 12Z GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE DESERTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT BUYING INTO THIS
SOLUTION AS POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DESERTS DEPICT A VERY
UNFAVORABLE DRY LAYER BELOW 500MB. MORE FAVORABLE BL DO NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHEN CLIMO-LIKE POPS
WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN
TROUGH FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF. WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR
SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND
ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND
BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO
HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND AT ALL TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDER-
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 12 TO 16 PERCENT...INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY SUNDAY INTO THE
30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY AT NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
INCREASING HUMIDITY...CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 012051
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
151 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM THE PAC NW TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PWATS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM APPROX 0.4
TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN
EARLY SEPTEMBER. NOT SURPRISINGLY THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP ONCE AGAIN...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS /LOWER 100S/
ALREADY EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR 1 SEPTEMBER.

THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK WILL REMAIN ONE OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE. H5 HEIGHTS WILL VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY AND A BLEND OF
THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 105-110 RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TODAYS 12Z GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE DESERTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT BUYING INTO THIS
SOLUTION AS POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DESERTS DEPICT A VERY
UNFAVORABLE DRY LAYER BELOW 500MB. MORE FAVORABLE BL DO NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHEN CLIMO-LIKE POPS
WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN
TROUGH FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF. WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR
SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND
ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND
BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO
HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND AT ALL TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDER-
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 12 TO 16 PERCENT...INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY SUNDAY INTO THE
30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY AT NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
INCREASING HUMIDITY...CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 011634
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
934 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO ADVECT WELL BELOW NORMAL PWATS INTO THE REGION...WITH REGIONAL
12Z RAOBS INDICATING 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS
THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME LOW LEVEL BL MOISTURE THAT HAD MADE ITS
WAY INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT /COURTESY OF LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS/...DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS A RESULT
OF THE DRIER AIRMASS...TEMPS AS OF 16Z WERE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
925-850MB TEMPS ARE VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE SEEN ON SUNDAY.
INHERITED FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS OBSERVED HIGHS FROM SUNDAY AND THIS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON TODAYS INCOMING 12Z DATA. BOTTOM LINE...DESERT HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE ARE A SAFE BET TODAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH PWATS
BELOW NORMAL...PRECIP CHANCES ARE NIL. ASIDE FROM MINOR CHANGES TO
HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON OBSERVED VALUES...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
500MB HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 590DM
MARK...SUPPORTING CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 28/29C EACH
AFTERNOON TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF THE 110F MARK
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS...AND JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER OUT
WEST FOR EL CENTRO/YUMA/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WHERE UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL WORK TO KEEP OUR WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES GOING...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
TRANSITION LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS BACK TO MORE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS.
INVERTED WAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WITH 8C OR
GREATER 850MB DEWPOINTS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND FAR
EASTERN AZ BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A
MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE
PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN
TROUGH FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF. WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR
SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND
ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND
BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO
HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND AT ALL TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDER-
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 12 TO 16 PERCENT...INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY SUNDAY INTO THE
30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY AT NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
INCREASING HUMIDITY...CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 011634
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
934 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO ADVECT WELL BELOW NORMAL PWATS INTO THE REGION...WITH REGIONAL
12Z RAOBS INDICATING 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS
THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME LOW LEVEL BL MOISTURE THAT HAD MADE ITS
WAY INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT /COURTESY OF LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS/...DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS A RESULT
OF THE DRIER AIRMASS...TEMPS AS OF 16Z WERE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
925-850MB TEMPS ARE VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE SEEN ON SUNDAY.
INHERITED FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS OBSERVED HIGHS FROM SUNDAY AND THIS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON TODAYS INCOMING 12Z DATA. BOTTOM LINE...DESERT HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE ARE A SAFE BET TODAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH PWATS
BELOW NORMAL...PRECIP CHANCES ARE NIL. ASIDE FROM MINOR CHANGES TO
HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON OBSERVED VALUES...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
500MB HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 590DM
MARK...SUPPORTING CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 28/29C EACH
AFTERNOON TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF THE 110F MARK
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS...AND JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER OUT
WEST FOR EL CENTRO/YUMA/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WHERE UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL WORK TO KEEP OUR WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES GOING...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
TRANSITION LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS BACK TO MORE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS.
INVERTED WAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WITH 8C OR
GREATER 850MB DEWPOINTS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND FAR
EASTERN AZ BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A
MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE
PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN
TROUGH FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF. WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR
SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND
ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND
BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO
HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND AT ALL TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDER-
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 12 TO 16 PERCENT...INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY SUNDAY INTO THE
30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY AT NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
INCREASING HUMIDITY...CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 011107
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
406 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY AS
BROAD TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CONUS KEEPING EARLY AM SKIES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND MEXICO AS A RESULT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/SE TX COAST AND OVER
NORTHERN SONORA/GULF OF CA. MORE RECOGNIZABLE AMPLIFIED RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...STARTING JUST OFF THE BAJA COAST
EXTENDING TOWARDS 140W/41N. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EARLY WEEK...LIFTING NORTHWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO
REORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY.

500MB HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 590DM
MARK...SUPPORTING CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 28/29C EACH
AFTERNOON TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF THE 110F MARK
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS...AND JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER OUT
WEST FOR EL CENTRO/YUMA/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WHERE UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL WORK TO KEEP OUR WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES GOING...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
TRANSITION LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS BACK TO MORE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS.
INVERTED WAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WITH 8C OR
GREATER 850MB DEWPOINTS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND FAR
EASTERN AZ BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A
MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE
PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN
TROUGH FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF. WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR
SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND
ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND
BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO
HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND AT ALL TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDER-
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 12 TO 16 PERCENT...INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY SUNDAY INTO THE
30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY AT NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
INCREASING HUMIDITY...CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 011107
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
406 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY AS
BROAD TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CONUS KEEPING EARLY AM SKIES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND MEXICO AS A RESULT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/SE TX COAST AND OVER
NORTHERN SONORA/GULF OF CA. MORE RECOGNIZABLE AMPLIFIED RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...STARTING JUST OFF THE BAJA COAST
EXTENDING TOWARDS 140W/41N. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EARLY WEEK...LIFTING NORTHWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO
REORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY.

500MB HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 590DM
MARK...SUPPORTING CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 28/29C EACH
AFTERNOON TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF THE 110F MARK
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS...AND JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER OUT
WEST FOR EL CENTRO/YUMA/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WHERE UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL WORK TO KEEP OUR WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES GOING...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
TRANSITION LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS BACK TO MORE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS.
INVERTED WAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WITH 8C OR
GREATER 850MB DEWPOINTS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND FAR
EASTERN AZ BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A
MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE
PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN
TROUGH FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF. WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR
SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND
ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND
BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO
HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND AT ALL TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDER-
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 12 TO 16 PERCENT...INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY SUNDAY INTO THE
30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY AT NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
INCREASING HUMIDITY...CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ










000
FXUS65 KPSR 011004
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
304 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY AS
BROAD TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CONUS KEEPING EARLY AM SKIES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND MEXICO AS A RESULT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/SE TX COAST AND OVER
NORTHERN SONORA/GULF OF CA. MORE RECOGNIZABLE AMPLIFIED RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...STARTING JUST OFF THE BAJA COAST
EXTENDING TOWARDS 140W/41N. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EARLY WEEK...LIFTING NORTHWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO
REORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY.

500MB HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 590DM
MARK...SUPPORTING CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 28/29C EACH
AFTERNOON TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF THE 110F MARK
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS...AND JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER OUT
WEST FOR EL CENTRO/YUMA/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WHERE UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL WORK TO KEEP OUR WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES GOING...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
TRANSITION LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS BACK TO MORE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS.
INVERTED WAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WITH 8C OR
GREATER 850MB DEWPOINTS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND FAR
EASTERN AZ BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A
MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE
PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN TROUGH FLOW
OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN BEFORE
ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS STRONGER
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF.
WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE COVERAGE TOWARDS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS
ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM
CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WE CAN EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS AT THE TAF SITES. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT
24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 011004
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
304 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
RETURN INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. BY THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT STORM CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY AS
BROAD TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CONUS KEEPING EARLY AM SKIES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND MEXICO AS A RESULT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/SE TX COAST AND OVER
NORTHERN SONORA/GULF OF CA. MORE RECOGNIZABLE AMPLIFIED RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...STARTING JUST OFF THE BAJA COAST
EXTENDING TOWARDS 140W/41N. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EARLY WEEK...LIFTING NORTHWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO
REORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY.

500MB HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 590DM
MARK...SUPPORTING CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 28/29C EACH
AFTERNOON TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF THE 110F MARK
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS...AND JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER OUT
WEST FOR EL CENTRO/YUMA/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WHERE UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL WORK TO KEEP OUR WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES GOING...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
TRANSITION LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS BACK TO MORE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS.
INVERTED WAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WITH 8C OR
GREATER 850MB DEWPOINTS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND FAR
EASTERN AZ BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RETURN TO A
MORE MONSOON LIKE PROFILE WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH-EAST-SOUTH OF THE
PHOENIX AREA...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SEEING STORM OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS AND THE EVER-PRESENT THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND ANYWHERE FROM
300-500 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA TIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHERE EARLIER
NHC FORECASTS HAD A 50 PERCENT PROB FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THEIR LATEST FORECASTS ARE NOW IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AT 70
PERCENT. BY THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM COULD BE TRACKING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COAST.
ALSO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST...EVENTUALLY SLIDING DOWN THE CA COAST BY THE
LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CLOUDINESS
FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE 1) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND 2) THE STRENGTH...EVOLUTION AND
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE BROAD MEAN TROUGH FLOW
OVER THE REGION IN THE GFS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
SYSTEM COMPACT AND TRACKS IT WEST OUT INTO THE OCEAN BEFORE
ATTEMPTING TO TURN IT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS STRONGER
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STRONG FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF.
WHILE THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POP FORECAST...INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE COVERAGE TOWARDS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA FOR SUNDAY AND NUDGING POPS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD UPWARDS A BIT AS THERE IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS
ABOUT THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PROFILE AND ENERGY EXPANDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF CA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES TRICKY WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND STORM
CHANCES...BUT ALL THE CONSENSUS AND BEST PERFORMING EXTENDED
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT THE 100F MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WE CAN EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS AT THE TAF SITES. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT
24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 010330
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...CLEARLY SEEN IN 00Z PLOT AND RAOB DATA. H5
HEIGHTS WERE ELEVATED...NEAR 592DM ACROSS SRN AZ...AND THIS LED TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 110 ON THE LOWER
DESERTS. PHOENIX REACHED TO 109...YUMA 111. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM
SHOWED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RUNNING 1 TO 3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO THANKS TO A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS HAVING HIGHER DEW
POINTS THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CHANGES ARE NOT DRAMATIC.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS YUMA AND IMPERIAL HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED DOWN FROM
READINGS THIS MORNING WHICH WERE WELL INTO THE 60S.

MAIN FLOW FEATURES OF INTEREST OVER NORTH AMERICA INCLUDE TWO
ANTICYCLONIC REGIONS...ONE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
ANOTHER CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST MEXICO
ANTICYCLONE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND THEN DRIFT EASTWARD A BIT AS IT
STARTS TO MERGE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST. THAT RESULTS IN
LESS OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY
WEDNESDAY. IN TURN THAT ALLOWS FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD INCREASE OF
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE INTO ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL SYSTEM FORMS SOUTH OF BAJA PER MODELS BUT
ALSO THE NHC IS FORECASTING A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...
RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES. THE NET EFFECT
OF ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS LOWER VERY GRADUALLY BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTRODUCE POPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD OF TIME THERE IS CONTINUATION OF FLOW PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THEN
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD AND EXPANDS EASTWARD FOR A
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THE GFS HANGS ON
TO MORE RIDGING WHICH BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS KEEPS
TROUGHING AT BAY AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO IMPROVE FURTHER. A BIGGER
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS LIES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH IT AND TRACKS IT MUCH
CLOSER TO BAJA. THAT LEADS TO A BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION. DESPITE THE BETTER MOISTURE HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS NOT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO CAPE BEING OFFSET BY
CIN WITH AN 500 MB HIGH CENTER OVER OUR AREA IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS QPF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. IF THE ECMWF IS INCORRECT WITH THE HANDLING OF THAT
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN THERE WILL NOT BE AS
MUCH MUCH MOISTURE MOVING IN. BUT GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIP PROBABILITIES
DO TREND UPWARD DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THOUGH A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS STILL WARRANTED. MADE SOME SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO SOME OF THE
LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WE CAN EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS AT THE TAF SITES. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT
24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 010330
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...CLEARLY SEEN IN 00Z PLOT AND RAOB DATA. H5
HEIGHTS WERE ELEVATED...NEAR 592DM ACROSS SRN AZ...AND THIS LED TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 110 ON THE LOWER
DESERTS. PHOENIX REACHED TO 109...YUMA 111. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM
SHOWED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RUNNING 1 TO 3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO THANKS TO A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS HAVING HIGHER DEW
POINTS THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CHANGES ARE NOT DRAMATIC.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS YUMA AND IMPERIAL HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED DOWN FROM
READINGS THIS MORNING WHICH WERE WELL INTO THE 60S.

MAIN FLOW FEATURES OF INTEREST OVER NORTH AMERICA INCLUDE TWO
ANTICYCLONIC REGIONS...ONE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
ANOTHER CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST MEXICO
ANTICYCLONE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND THEN DRIFT EASTWARD A BIT AS IT
STARTS TO MERGE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST. THAT RESULTS IN
LESS OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY
WEDNESDAY. IN TURN THAT ALLOWS FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD INCREASE OF
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE INTO ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL SYSTEM FORMS SOUTH OF BAJA PER MODELS BUT
ALSO THE NHC IS FORECASTING A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...
RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES. THE NET EFFECT
OF ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS LOWER VERY GRADUALLY BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTRODUCE POPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD OF TIME THERE IS CONTINUATION OF FLOW PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THEN
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD AND EXPANDS EASTWARD FOR A
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THE GFS HANGS ON
TO MORE RIDGING WHICH BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS KEEPS
TROUGHING AT BAY AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO IMPROVE FURTHER. A BIGGER
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS LIES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH IT AND TRACKS IT MUCH
CLOSER TO BAJA. THAT LEADS TO A BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION. DESPITE THE BETTER MOISTURE HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS NOT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO CAPE BEING OFFSET BY
CIN WITH AN 500 MB HIGH CENTER OVER OUR AREA IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS QPF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. IF THE ECMWF IS INCORRECT WITH THE HANDLING OF THAT
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN THERE WILL NOT BE AS
MUCH MUCH MOISTURE MOVING IN. BUT GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIP PROBABILITIES
DO TREND UPWARD DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THOUGH A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS STILL WARRANTED. MADE SOME SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO SOME OF THE
LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WE CAN EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS AT THE TAF SITES. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT
24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/KUHLMAN











000
FXUS65 KPSR 312212
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RUNNING 1 TO 3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO THANKS TO A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS HAVING HIGHER DEW
POINTS THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CHANGES ARE NOT DRAMATIC.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS YUMA AND IMPERIAL HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED DOWN FROM
READINGS THIS MORNING WHICH WERE WELL INTO THE 60S.

MAIN FLOW FEATURES OF INTEREST OVER NORTH AMERICA INCLUDE TWO
ANTICYCLONIC REGIONS...ONE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
ANOTHER CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST MEXICO
ANTICYCLONE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND THEN DRIFT EASTWARD A BIT AS IT
STARTS TO MERGE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST. THAT RESULTS IN
LESS OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY
WEDNESDAY. IN TURN THAT ALLOWS FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD INCREASE OF
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE INTO ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL SYSTEM FORMS SOUTH OF BAJA PER MODELS BUT
ALSO THE NHC IS FORECASTING A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST...
RENEWED TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES. THE NET EFFECT
OF ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS LOWER VERY GRADUALLY BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTRODUCE POPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD OF TIME THERE IS CONTINUATION OF FLOW PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THEN
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD AND EXPANDS EASTWARD FOR A
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THE GFS HANGS ON
TO MORE RIDGING WHICH BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS KEEPS
TROUGHING AT BAY AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO IMPROVE FURTHER. A BIGGER
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS LIES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH IT AND TRACKS IT MUCH
CLOSER TO BAJA. THAT LEADS TO A BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION. DESPITE THE BETTER MOISTURE HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS NOT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO CAPE BEING OFFSET BY
CIN WITH AN 500 MB HIGH CENTER OVER OUR AREA IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS QPF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. IF THE ECMWF IS INCORRECT WITH THE HANDLING OF THAT
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN THERE WILL NOT BE AS
MUCH MUCH MOISTURE MOVING IN. BUT GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIP PROBABILITIES
DO TREND UPWARD DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THOUGH A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS STILL WARRANTED. MADE SOME SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO SOME OF THE
LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH PERIODIC GUSTINESS IN THE TEENS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. NO BIG
CHANGES SEEN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE RULE. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
THROUGH MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 312003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
102 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH
SLIGHT COOLING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA STARTING NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWED SOME MINOR COOLING AND MOISTENING BELOW 800
MB WITH MORE DISTINCT LOWER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS WELL. THIS
IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SEEP OF MOISTURE ADVERTISED BY THE
MODELS. THIS SEEP IS MORE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SURFACE DEW POINTS AT
NYL AND IPL WHICH ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. KYUX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES IT IS GETTING MORE
SHALLOW NOW...DOWN TO ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE
BIT OF A BITE OUT OF THE TEMPERATURES...MORE NOTICEABLY FOR
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUCH AS YUMA AND EL
CENTRO. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE SHORT LIVED NATURE OF THE
SEEP WITH DEW POINTS MIXING BACK DOWN BELOW 50 IN THE PLACES WHERE
THEY ARE HIGHER NOW. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTENING AND COOLING THE
FURTHER YOU GET FROM THE SOURCE OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. OVERALL
COOLING WILL BE SLIGHT...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS JUST BELOW
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX TEMP GRID
FOR TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND WHICH
WILL NUDGE MONDAY TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS THOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS MAY NEED TO BE MADE. MORE
LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 AM...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOWER
VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IN GENERAL...WE WILL KEEP THEM IN
THE 104-108 DEGREE F RANGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH PERIODIC GUSTINESS IN THE TEENS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. NO BIG
CHANGES SEEN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE RULE. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
THROUGH MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/KUHLMAN











000
FXUS65 KPSR 312003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
102 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH
SLIGHT COOLING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA STARTING NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWED SOME MINOR COOLING AND MOISTENING BELOW 800
MB WITH MORE DISTINCT LOWER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS WELL. THIS
IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SEEP OF MOISTURE ADVERTISED BY THE
MODELS. THIS SEEP IS MORE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SURFACE DEW POINTS AT
NYL AND IPL WHICH ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. KYUX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES IT IS GETTING MORE
SHALLOW NOW...DOWN TO ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE
BIT OF A BITE OUT OF THE TEMPERATURES...MORE NOTICEABLY FOR
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUCH AS YUMA AND EL
CENTRO. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE SHORT LIVED NATURE OF THE
SEEP WITH DEW POINTS MIXING BACK DOWN BELOW 50 IN THE PLACES WHERE
THEY ARE HIGHER NOW. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTENING AND COOLING THE
FURTHER YOU GET FROM THE SOURCE OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. OVERALL
COOLING WILL BE SLIGHT...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS JUST BELOW
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX TEMP GRID
FOR TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND WHICH
WILL NUDGE MONDAY TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS THOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS MAY NEED TO BE MADE. MORE
LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 AM...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOWER
VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IN GENERAL...WE WILL KEEP THEM IN
THE 104-108 DEGREE F RANGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH PERIODIC GUSTINESS IN THE TEENS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. NO BIG
CHANGES SEEN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE RULE. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
THROUGH MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 311647
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
945 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH
SLIGHT COOLING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA STARTING NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWED SOME MINOR COOLING AND MOISTENING BELOW 800
MB WITH MORE DISTINCT LOWER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS WELL. THIS
IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SEEP OF MOISTURE ADVERTISED BY THE
MODELS. THIS SEEP IS MORE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SURFACE DEW POINTS AT
NYL AND IPL WHICH ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. KYUX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES IT IS GETTING MORE
SHALLOW NOW...DOWN TO ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE
BIT OF A BITE OUT OF THE TEMPERATURES...MORE NOTICEABLY FOR
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUCH AS YUMA AND EL
CENTRO. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE SHORT LIVED NATURE OF THE
SEEP WITH DEW POINTS MIXING BACK DOWN BELOW 50 IN THE PLACES WHERE
THEY ARE HIGHER NOW. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTENING AND COOLING THE
FURTHER YOU GET FROM THE SOURCE OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. OVERALL
COOLING WILL BE SLIGHT...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS JUST BELOW
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX TEMP GRID
FOR TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND WHICH
WILL NUDGE MONDAY TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS THOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS MAY NEED TO BE MADE. MORE
LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 AM...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOWER
VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IN GENERAL...WE WILL KEEP THEM IN
THE 104-108 DEGREE F RANGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THIS AM
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH...SUPPORTING ATLEAST SCT MENTION IN
THE PHX AREA TAFS THIS AM. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT AM WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TYPICAL
AFTERNOON HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND SOME
VARIATION OF SOUTHERLY FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS AND
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON GUSTINESS 15-20KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS
TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK INCREASING CLOSER TO 20
PERCENT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR-GOOD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE
TO GOOD-EXCELLENT AT MOST PLACES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 311647
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
945 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH
SLIGHT COOLING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA STARTING NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWED SOME MINOR COOLING AND MOISTENING BELOW 800
MB WITH MORE DISTINCT LOWER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS WELL. THIS
IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SEEP OF MOISTURE ADVERTISED BY THE
MODELS. THIS SEEP IS MORE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SURFACE DEW POINTS AT
NYL AND IPL WHICH ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. KYUX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES IT IS GETTING MORE
SHALLOW NOW...DOWN TO ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE
BIT OF A BITE OUT OF THE TEMPERATURES...MORE NOTICEABLY FOR
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUCH AS YUMA AND EL
CENTRO. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE SHORT LIVED NATURE OF THE
SEEP WITH DEW POINTS MIXING BACK DOWN BELOW 50 IN THE PLACES WHERE
THEY ARE HIGHER NOW. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTENING AND COOLING THE
FURTHER YOU GET FROM THE SOURCE OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. OVERALL
COOLING WILL BE SLIGHT...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS JUST BELOW
EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX TEMP GRID
FOR TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND WHICH
WILL NUDGE MONDAY TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS THOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS MAY NEED TO BE MADE. MORE
LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 AM...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOWER
VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IN GENERAL...WE WILL KEEP THEM IN
THE 104-108 DEGREE F RANGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THIS AM
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH...SUPPORTING ATLEAST SCT MENTION IN
THE PHX AREA TAFS THIS AM. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT AM WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TYPICAL
AFTERNOON HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND SOME
VARIATION OF SOUTHERLY FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS AND
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON GUSTINESS 15-20KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS
TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK INCREASING CLOSER TO 20
PERCENT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR-GOOD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE
TO GOOD-EXCELLENT AT MOST PLACES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 311137 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
437 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH SLIGHT
COOLING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
STARTING NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOWER
VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IN GENERAL...WE WILL KEEP THEM IN
THE 104-108 DEGREE F RANGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THIS AM
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH...SUPPORTING ATLEAST SCT MENTION IN
THE PHX AREA TAFS THIS AM. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT AM WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TYPICAL
AFTERNOON HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND SOME
VARIATION OF SOUTHERLY FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS AND
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON GUSTINESS 15-20KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS
TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK INCREASING CLOSER TO 20
PERCENT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR-GOOD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE
TO GOOD-EXCELLENT AT MOST PLACES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ















000
FXUS65 KPSR 311137 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
437 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH SLIGHT
COOLING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
STARTING NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOWER
VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IN GENERAL...WE WILL KEEP THEM IN
THE 104-108 DEGREE F RANGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THIS AM
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH...SUPPORTING ATLEAST SCT MENTION IN
THE PHX AREA TAFS THIS AM. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT AM WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TYPICAL
AFTERNOON HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND SOME
VARIATION OF SOUTHERLY FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS AND
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON GUSTINESS 15-20KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS
TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK INCREASING CLOSER TO 20
PERCENT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR-GOOD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE
TO GOOD-EXCELLENT AT MOST PLACES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ














000
FXUS65 KPSR 311135
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH SLIGHT COOLING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOWER
VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IN GENERAL...WE WILL KEEP THEM IN
THE 104-108 DEGREE F RANGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THIS AM
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH...SUPPORTING ATLEAST SCT MENTION IN
THE PHX AREA TAFS THIS AM. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT AM WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TYPICAL
AFTERNOON HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND SOME
VARIATION OF SOUTHERLY FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS AND
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON GUSTINESS 15-20KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS
TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK INCREASING CLOSER TO 20
PERCENT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR-GOOD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE
TO GOOD-EXCELLENT AT MOST PLACES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ











000
FXUS65 KPSR 311135
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH SLIGHT COOLING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOWER
VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IN GENERAL...WE WILL KEEP THEM IN
THE 104-108 DEGREE F RANGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THIS AM
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH...SUPPORTING ATLEAST SCT MENTION IN
THE PHX AREA TAFS THIS AM. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT AM WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TYPICAL
AFTERNOON HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND SOME
VARIATION OF SOUTHERLY FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS AND
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON GUSTINESS 15-20KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP
DEWPOINT READINGS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. VERY
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS
TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK INCREASING CLOSER TO 20
PERCENT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR-GOOD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE
TO GOOD-EXCELLENT AT MOST PLACES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ












000
FXUS65 KPSR 311000
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH SLIGHT COOLING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOWER
VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IN GENERAL...WE WILL KEEP THEM IN
THE 104-108 DEGREE F RANGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP
AGAIN ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/NEAR KBLH AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS/03Z MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP DEWPOINT
READINGS WHILE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. VERY LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN
AZ HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE
FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR-GOOD THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE TO GOOD-EXCELLENT AT MOST PLACES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/NOLTE










000
FXUS65 KPSR 311000
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH SLIGHT COOLING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOWER
VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IN GENERAL...WE WILL KEEP THEM IN
THE 104-108 DEGREE F RANGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP
AGAIN ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/NEAR KBLH AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS/03Z MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP DEWPOINT
READINGS WHILE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. VERY LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN
AZ HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE
FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR-GOOD THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE TO GOOD-EXCELLENT AT MOST PLACES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/NOLTE









000
FXUS65 KPSR 310432 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
929 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHT COOLING IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING AROUND
NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS
THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGHING HAS
DRAPED SOME THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES...BUT OVERALL A
DRY AIRMASS IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL CWA-WIDE. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...MAX TEMPS EARLIER
TODAY WERE HOT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...TOPPING OUT AT 113 DEGREES
AT YUMA...AND 111 DEGREES AT PHOENIX. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
8 PM. BUT CURRENTLY...SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE STILL WARM AND DRY...
WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 40S AND AIR TEMPS SLOWLY COOLING OFF...
HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES AT MOST LOCALES. THE INHERITED DIGITAL
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM HAS CAPTURED THE OBSERVED TRENDS WELL
THIS EVENING...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE TO REPRESS THE RIDGE...AND GRADUALLY BRING DOWN UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. EXPECTING TO LOSE MAYBE ONE DEGREE ON OUR
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND PROBABLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON MONDAY. THEN
THE BROAD TROUGHING LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WHILE KEEPING
HEIGHTS FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SINCE MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT TOO COOL THE PAST
FEW DAYS...HAVE KEPT WITH OUR TREND OF GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
WHICH GIVES US HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST. THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD MAINLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A RETURN TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN ANY MEANINGFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
VENTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. GIVEN THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HANDLED THE
MOISTURE RETURN VERY WELL LATELY...LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER GFS
WHICH DOESN/T BRING ANY CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL DOWN EVEN FURTHER DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP
AGAIN ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/NEAR KBLH AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS/03Z MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP DEWPOINT
READINGS WHILE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. VERY LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN
AZ HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE
FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR-GOOD THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE TO GOOD-EXCELLENT AT MOST PLACES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/NOLTE






000
FXUS65 KPSR 310432 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
929 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHT COOLING IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING AROUND
NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS
THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGHING HAS
DRAPED SOME THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES...BUT OVERALL A
DRY AIRMASS IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL CWA-WIDE. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...MAX TEMPS EARLIER
TODAY WERE HOT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...TOPPING OUT AT 113 DEGREES
AT YUMA...AND 111 DEGREES AT PHOENIX. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
8 PM. BUT CURRENTLY...SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE STILL WARM AND DRY...
WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 40S AND AIR TEMPS SLOWLY COOLING OFF...
HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES AT MOST LOCALES. THE INHERITED DIGITAL
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM HAS CAPTURED THE OBSERVED TRENDS WELL
THIS EVENING...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE TO REPRESS THE RIDGE...AND GRADUALLY BRING DOWN UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. EXPECTING TO LOSE MAYBE ONE DEGREE ON OUR
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND PROBABLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON MONDAY. THEN
THE BROAD TROUGHING LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WHILE KEEPING
HEIGHTS FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SINCE MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT TOO COOL THE PAST
FEW DAYS...HAVE KEPT WITH OUR TREND OF GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
WHICH GIVES US HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST. THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD MAINLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A RETURN TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN ANY MEANINGFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
VENTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. GIVEN THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HANDLED THE
MOISTURE RETURN VERY WELL LATELY...LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER GFS
WHICH DOESN/T BRING ANY CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL DOWN EVEN FURTHER DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP
AGAIN ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/NEAR KBLH AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS/03Z MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP DEWPOINT
READINGS WHILE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. VERY LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN
AZ HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE
FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR-GOOD THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE TO GOOD-EXCELLENT AT MOST PLACES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/NOLTE







000
FXUS65 KPSR 302154 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHT COOLING IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING AROUND
NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG RIDGING ALOFT IS AGAIN ALLOWING FOR SOME HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BREAK 110
IN MANY DESERT SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND APPROACH 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA. WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL CREATE LARGER
THAN TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE FIRST SIGNS OF SOME FLATTENING IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW
HAPPENING AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE BEGUN TO CARVE OUT BROAD
SCALE TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA. THIS FLATTENING WILL GRADUALLY BRING DOWN UPPER HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO FOLLOW. EXPECTING TO LOSE MAYBE ONE DEGREE ON OUR HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON MONDAY. THEN THE BROAD
TROUGHING LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WHILE KEEPING HEIGHTS FAIRLY
STEADY ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SINCE MODEL
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT TOO COOL THE PAST FEW
DAYS...HAVE KEPT WITH OUR TREND OF GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
WHICH GIVES US HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST. THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD MAINLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A RETURN TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN ANY MEANINGFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL VENTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. GIVEN THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HANDLED
THE MOISTURE RETURN VERY WELL LATELY...LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER GFS
WHICH DOESN/T BRING ANY CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL DOWN EVEN FURTHER DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR VERY THIN CIRRUS THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST
AND WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOONS OF
15-20 KTS. SOUTH AND AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREDOMINATE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH SIMILAR GUSTS. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
WITH 20-25 KTS COMMON...FAVORING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP DEWPOINT
READINGS WHILE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. VERY LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN
AZ HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE
FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR-GOOD THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE TO GOOD-EXCELLENT AT MOST PLACES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AZZ020-021-025-026 UNTIL 8 PM MST TODAY.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CAZ031>033 UNTIL 8 PM PDT TODAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/NOLTE







000
FXUS65 KPSR 302154 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHT COOLING IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING AROUND
NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG RIDGING ALOFT IS AGAIN ALLOWING FOR SOME HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BREAK 110
IN MANY DESERT SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND APPROACH 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA. WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL CREATE LARGER
THAN TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE FIRST SIGNS OF SOME FLATTENING IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW
HAPPENING AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE BEGUN TO CARVE OUT BROAD
SCALE TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA. THIS FLATTENING WILL GRADUALLY BRING DOWN UPPER HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO FOLLOW. EXPECTING TO LOSE MAYBE ONE DEGREE ON OUR HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON MONDAY. THEN THE BROAD
TROUGHING LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WHILE KEEPING HEIGHTS FAIRLY
STEADY ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SINCE MODEL
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT TOO COOL THE PAST FEW
DAYS...HAVE KEPT WITH OUR TREND OF GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
WHICH GIVES US HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST. THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD MAINLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A RETURN TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN ANY MEANINGFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL VENTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. GIVEN THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HANDLED
THE MOISTURE RETURN VERY WELL LATELY...LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER GFS
WHICH DOESN/T BRING ANY CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL DOWN EVEN FURTHER DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR VERY THIN CIRRUS THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST
AND WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOONS OF
15-20 KTS. SOUTH AND AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREDOMINATE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH SIMILAR GUSTS. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
WITH 20-25 KTS COMMON...FAVORING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP DEWPOINT
READINGS WHILE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. VERY LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN
AZ HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER THE
FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK INCREASING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR-GOOD THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE TO GOOD-EXCELLENT AT MOST PLACES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AZZ020-021-025-026 UNTIL 8 PM MST TODAY.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CAZ031>033 UNTIL 8 PM PDT TODAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/NOLTE








000
FXUS65 KPSR 302051
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
151 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHT COOLING IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING AROUND
NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG RIDGING ALOFT IS AGAIN ALLOWING FOR SOME HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BREAK 110
IN MANY DESERT SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND APPROACH 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA. WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL CREATE LARGER
THAN TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE FIRST SIGNS OF SOME FLATTENING IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW
HAPPENING AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE BEGUN TO CARVE OUT BROAD
SCALE TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA. THIS FLATTENING WILL GRADUALLY BRING DOWN UPPER HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO FOLLOW. EXPECTING TO LOSE MAYBE ONE DEGREE ON OUR HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON MONDAY. THEN THE BROAD
TROUGHING LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WHILE KEEPING HEIGHTS FAIRLY
STEADY ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SINCE MODEL
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT TOO COOL THE PAST FEW
DAYS...HAVE KEPT WITH OUR TREND OF GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
WHICH GIVES US HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST. THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD MAINLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A RETURN TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN ANY MEANINGFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL VENTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. GIVEN THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HANDLED
THE MOISTURE RETURN VERY WELL LATELY...LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER GFS
WHICH DOESN/T BRING ANY CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL DOWN EVEN FURTHER DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS TO
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KBLH...WHERE STRONG SOUTHERLY MIDDAY WINDS COULD
GUST TO 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP MORNING
DEWPOINT READINGS WHILE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. VERY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR
EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER
THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY STORM OUTFLOWS WIND MAY MOVE OFF
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
DOWN INTO THE TEENS OVER THE AFTERNOONS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY THE LATE WEEK...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AZZ020-021-025-026 UNTIL 8 PM MST TODAY.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CAZ031>033 UNTIL 8 PM PDT TODAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




















000
FXUS65 KPSR 302051
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
151 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHT COOLING IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING AROUND
NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG RIDGING ALOFT IS AGAIN ALLOWING FOR SOME HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BREAK 110
IN MANY DESERT SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND APPROACH 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA. WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL CREATE LARGER
THAN TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE FIRST SIGNS OF SOME FLATTENING IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW
HAPPENING AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE BEGUN TO CARVE OUT BROAD
SCALE TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA. THIS FLATTENING WILL GRADUALLY BRING DOWN UPPER HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO FOLLOW. EXPECTING TO LOSE MAYBE ONE DEGREE ON OUR HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON MONDAY. THEN THE BROAD
TROUGHING LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WHILE KEEPING HEIGHTS FAIRLY
STEADY ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SINCE MODEL
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT TOO COOL THE PAST FEW
DAYS...HAVE KEPT WITH OUR TREND OF GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
WHICH GIVES US HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST. THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD MAINLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A RETURN TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN ANY MEANINGFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL VENTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. GIVEN THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HANDLED
THE MOISTURE RETURN VERY WELL LATELY...LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER GFS
WHICH DOESN/T BRING ANY CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL DOWN EVEN FURTHER DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS TO
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KBLH...WHERE STRONG SOUTHERLY MIDDAY WINDS COULD
GUST TO 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP MORNING
DEWPOINT READINGS WHILE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. VERY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR
EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER
THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY STORM OUTFLOWS WIND MAY MOVE OFF
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
DOWN INTO THE TEENS OVER THE AFTERNOONS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY THE LATE WEEK...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AZZ020-021-025-026 UNTIL 8 PM MST TODAY.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CAZ031>033 UNTIL 8 PM PDT TODAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





















000
FXUS65 KPSR 301615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHT COOLING IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING AROUND
NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM AND QUIET CONDITIONS RULE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SHOWED A VERY DRY PROFILE AND
SOME SLIGHT WARMING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BELOW 700MB...SO WE
SHOULD EXPECT TO GET ABOVE YESTERDAY/S HIGH OF 108 IN PHOENIX. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF 109 SEEMS VERY REASONABLE...THOUGH 110 IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOWER DESERT SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ARE UNDER AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR TODAY
WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK OUT IN THE 110-113 RANGE. THE DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS WITH SOME
GRADUAL COOLING STARTING MONDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT IN RESPONSE TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING
BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAVE WANTED TO COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BY A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER WE THINK HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES FUNDAMENTALLY SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANGE. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SLIGHT CHANGES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS TO
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KBLH...WHERE STRONG SOUTHERLY MIDDAY WINDS COULD
GUST TO 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP MORNING
DEWPOINT READINGS WHILE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. VERY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR
EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER
THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY STORM OUTFLOWS WIND MAY MOVE OFF
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
DOWN INTO THE TEENS OVER THE AFTERNOONS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY THE LATE WEEK...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AZZ020-021-025-026 10 AM MST UNTIL 8 PM
     MST TODAY.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CAZ031>033 10 AM PDT UNTIL 8 PM PDT
     TODAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE

















000
FXUS65 KPSR 301615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHT COOLING IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING AROUND
NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM AND QUIET CONDITIONS RULE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SHOWED A VERY DRY PROFILE AND
SOME SLIGHT WARMING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BELOW 700MB...SO WE
SHOULD EXPECT TO GET ABOVE YESTERDAY/S HIGH OF 108 IN PHOENIX. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF 109 SEEMS VERY REASONABLE...THOUGH 110 IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOWER DESERT SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ARE UNDER AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR TODAY
WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK OUT IN THE 110-113 RANGE. THE DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS WITH SOME
GRADUAL COOLING STARTING MONDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT IN RESPONSE TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING
BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAVE WANTED TO COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BY A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER WE THINK HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES FUNDAMENTALLY SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANGE. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SLIGHT CHANGES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS TO
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KBLH...WHERE STRONG SOUTHERLY MIDDAY WINDS COULD
GUST TO 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP MORNING
DEWPOINT READINGS WHILE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. VERY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR
EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER
THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY STORM OUTFLOWS WIND MAY MOVE OFF
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
DOWN INTO THE TEENS OVER THE AFTERNOONS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY THE LATE WEEK...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AZZ020-021-025-026 10 AM MST UNTIL 8 PM
     MST TODAY.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CAZ031>033 10 AM PDT UNTIL 8 PM PDT
     TODAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE


















000
FXUS65 KPSR 301239
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
538 AM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHT COOLING IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA NEXT
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAVE WANTED TO COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BY A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER WE THINK HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES FUNDAMENTALLY SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANGE. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SLIGHT CHANGES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS TO
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KBLH...WHERE STRONG SOUTHERLY MIDDAY WINDS COULD
GUST TO 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP MORNING
DEWPOINT READINGS WHILE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. VERY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR
EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER
THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY STORM OUTFLOWS WIND MAY MOVE OFF
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
DOWN INTO THE TEENS OVER THE AFTERNOONS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY THE LATE WEEK...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AZZ020-021-025-026 10 AM MST UNTIL 8 PM
     MST TODAY.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CAZ031>033 10 AM PDT UNTIL 8 PM PDT
     TODAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE














    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities