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000
FXUS65 KPSR 021553
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
853 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A STARK CONTRAST COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN
THOUGH YESTERDAY ENDED BEING SOMEWHAT QUIET OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...TODAY WILL BE EVEN MORE QUIET. LITTLE MOISTURE IS LEFT FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EVEN DRIER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPORADIC AFTERNOON CU ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT
DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN WILL QUICKLY DROP SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE
CURRENT MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...BUT AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACTIVITY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN TOP OUT
NEAR 110 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE HIGHS SHOULD PEAK OUT IN A
104-108 RANGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR TO
THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS THAN 24
HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL
THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE HRRR FOR TODAY`S
ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 021553
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
853 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A STARK CONTRAST COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN
THOUGH YESTERDAY ENDED BEING SOMEWHAT QUIET OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...TODAY WILL BE EVEN MORE QUIET. LITTLE MOISTURE IS LEFT FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EVEN DRIER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPORADIC AFTERNOON CU ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT
DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN WILL QUICKLY DROP SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE
CURRENT MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...BUT AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACTIVITY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN TOP OUT
NEAR 110 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE HIGHS SHOULD PEAK OUT IN A
104-108 RANGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR TO
THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS THAN 24
HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL
THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE HRRR FOR TODAY`S
ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 021203
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
502 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS
THAN 24 HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM...AND AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE
STORM ACTIVITY TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT
MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE
HRRR FOR TODAY`S ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 021203
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
502 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS
THAN 24 HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM...AND AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE
STORM ACTIVITY TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT
MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE
HRRR FOR TODAY`S ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 021203
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
502 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS
THAN 24 HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM...AND AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE
STORM ACTIVITY TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT
MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE
HRRR FOR TODAY`S ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 021203
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
502 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS
THAN 24 HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM...AND AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE
STORM ACTIVITY TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT
MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE
HRRR FOR TODAY`S ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 020944
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
244 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. FAIRLY
WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB LAYER
OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR TO
THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS THAN 24
HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL
THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE HRRR FOR TODAY`S
ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVERAGE
INTO THE CLR-FEW RANGE AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY SUN MORNING...WITH
BASES REMAINING MAINLY AOA 10K FEET...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE GREATER PHX AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 020944
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
244 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. FAIRLY
WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB LAYER
OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR TO
THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS THAN 24
HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL
THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE HRRR FOR TODAY`S
ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVERAGE
INTO THE CLR-FEW RANGE AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY SUN MORNING...WITH
BASES REMAINING MAINLY AOA 10K FEET...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE GREATER PHX AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 020530 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY THAN WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. DRY AIR THAT IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF THAT IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST HAS NOW MOVED INTO SE CA AND
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF ARIZONA. THIS DRY AIR HAS PRETTY MUCH SHUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOWN AND PUSHED SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 3/4 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THIS DRY SURGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHER GILA COUNTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL WELL UP IN THE 60S UNDER THE MAIN MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND
CONTINUED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS TS ACTIVITY IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN INDICATING THAT ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF VERY QUIET DAYS AS DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS ALL OF AZ. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVERAGE
INTO THE CLR-FEW RANGE AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY SUN MORNING...WITH
BASES REMAINING MAINLY AOA 10K FEET...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE GREATER PHX AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 020530 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY THAN WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. DRY AIR THAT IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF THAT IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST HAS NOW MOVED INTO SE CA AND
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF ARIZONA. THIS DRY AIR HAS PRETTY MUCH SHUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOWN AND PUSHED SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 3/4 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THIS DRY SURGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHER GILA COUNTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL WELL UP IN THE 60S UNDER THE MAIN MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND
CONTINUED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS TS ACTIVITY IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN INDICATING THAT ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF VERY QUIET DAYS AS DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS ALL OF AZ. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVERAGE
INTO THE CLR-FEW RANGE AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY SUN MORNING...WITH
BASES REMAINING MAINLY AOA 10K FEET...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE GREATER PHX AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 020342
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY THAN WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. DRY AIR THAT IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF THAT IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST HAS NOW MOVED INTO SE CA AND
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF ARIZONA. THIS DRY AIR HAS PRETTY MUCH SHUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOWN AND PUSHED SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 3/4 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THIS DRY SURGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHER GILA COUNTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL WELL UP IN THE 60S UNDER THE MAIN MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND
CONTINUED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS TS ACTIVITY IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN INDICATING THAT ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF VERY QUIET DAYS AS DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS ALL OF AZ. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 020342
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY THAN WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. DRY AIR THAT IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF THAT IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST HAS NOW MOVED INTO SE CA AND
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF ARIZONA. THIS DRY AIR HAS PRETTY MUCH SHUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOWN AND PUSHED SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 3/4 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THIS DRY SURGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHER GILA COUNTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL WELL UP IN THE 60S UNDER THE MAIN MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND
CONTINUED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS TS ACTIVITY IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN INDICATING THAT ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF VERY QUIET DAYS AS DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS ALL OF AZ. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 012149
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 012149
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 012116
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
215 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 012116
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
215 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 012110
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
210 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 012110
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
210 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS OVERALL TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS OVERALL TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS OVERALL TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS OVERALL TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 010356
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STORM CHANCES WILL TREND
DOWN SATURDAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK WITH STORM
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES
WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH WAS A HUGE CHANGE FROM JUST YESTERDAY WHEN
LITERALLY NO STORMS FORMED ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS.
CHANGES WERE DUE LARGELY TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...A WEAK INVERTED TROF/VORT MAX MOVING NORTH AND ACROSS THE
AREA AND A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS. PHOENIX REACHED A HIGH OF 110
DEGREES TODAY...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN THE MIX...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH CONSIDERING
PWAT VALUES WERE OVER 1.6 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
FIRED UP STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE STRONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY THE STORMS INTERACTED AND FORCED DEVELOPMENT
OF NEW STORMS. THE PROCESS CONTINUED UNTIL THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
BECAME STABILIZED BY ALL THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND AS OF 8 PM WE WERE
LEFT WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND VIRTUALLY NO
STORMS. BY 8 PM THE TEMPERATURE AT PHOENIX FELL FROM 110 DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT THERE WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OUT WEST. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY AFFECTING FRINGES OF PHOENIX
METRO AS OF THIS WRITING. STORMS PRODUCING BOTH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR...GUST FRONTS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNABLE TO
PRODUCE NEW STORMS. WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH
EXISTING STORMS...LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS.  OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...STORMS
HAVE ALSO BEEN AIDED BY AN MCV FROM SONORA. AS THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEBRIS SHOWERS FROM SONORA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
THUS KEPT SOME LOW END POPS GOING. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL
BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF TODAY/S SHORT WAVE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY. ONE CAVEAT THOUGH IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM
BAJA WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS HELD ON TO SOME
POPS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
BETTER. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY IT WEAKENS. IT WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE DESERTS. SO POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DOES
NOT SETUP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME MOIST ADVECTION BEGINNING THEN. AS
USUAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. THIS IS A
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH KEPT THINGS DRY. WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS MORE SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 010356
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STORM CHANCES WILL TREND
DOWN SATURDAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK WITH STORM
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES
WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH WAS A HUGE CHANGE FROM JUST YESTERDAY WHEN
LITERALLY NO STORMS FORMED ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS.
CHANGES WERE DUE LARGELY TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...A WEAK INVERTED TROF/VORT MAX MOVING NORTH AND ACROSS THE
AREA AND A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS. PHOENIX REACHED A HIGH OF 110
DEGREES TODAY...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN THE MIX...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH CONSIDERING
PWAT VALUES WERE OVER 1.6 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
FIRED UP STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE STRONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY THE STORMS INTERACTED AND FORCED DEVELOPMENT
OF NEW STORMS. THE PROCESS CONTINUED UNTIL THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
BECAME STABILIZED BY ALL THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND AS OF 8 PM WE WERE
LEFT WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND VIRTUALLY NO
STORMS. BY 8 PM THE TEMPERATURE AT PHOENIX FELL FROM 110 DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT THERE WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OUT WEST. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY AFFECTING FRINGES OF PHOENIX
METRO AS OF THIS WRITING. STORMS PRODUCING BOTH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR...GUST FRONTS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNABLE TO
PRODUCE NEW STORMS. WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH
EXISTING STORMS...LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS.  OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...STORMS
HAVE ALSO BEEN AIDED BY AN MCV FROM SONORA. AS THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEBRIS SHOWERS FROM SONORA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
THUS KEPT SOME LOW END POPS GOING. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL
BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF TODAY/S SHORT WAVE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY. ONE CAVEAT THOUGH IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM
BAJA WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS HELD ON TO SOME
POPS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
BETTER. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY IT WEAKENS. IT WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE DESERTS. SO POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DOES
NOT SETUP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME MOIST ADVECTION BEGINNING THEN. AS
USUAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. THIS IS A
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH KEPT THINGS DRY. WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS MORE SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 312129
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
229 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LESS SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STORM
CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN SATURDAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY AFFECTING FRINGES OF PHOENIX
METRO AS OF THIS WRITING. STORMS PRODUCING BOTH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR...GUST FRONTS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNABLE TO
PRODUCE NEW STORMS. WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH
EXISTING STORMS...LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS.  OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...STORMS
HAVE ALSO BEEN AIDED BY AN MCV FROM SONORA. AS THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEBRIS SHOWERS FROM SONORA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
THUS KEPT SOME LOW END POPS GOING. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL
BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF TODAY/S SHORT WAVE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY. ONE CAVEAT THOUGH IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM
BAJA WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS HELD ON TO SOME
POPS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
BETTER. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY IT WEAKENS. IT WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE DESERTS. SO POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DOES
NOT SETUP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME MOIST ADVECTION BEGINNING THEN. AS
USUAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. THIS IS A
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH KEPT THINGS DRY. WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS MORE SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AN ACTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON WITH QUITE A BIT OF STORM ACTIVITY
ALREADY FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING SOME STORM OUTFLOWS TO ALLOW FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR STORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
WE MAY SEE SOME OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX TERMINALS AS SOON AS 22-
00Z AND THEN A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY DUE TO THE STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECTING THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE OUTFLOWS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN DUST OR RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 312129
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
229 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LESS SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STORM
CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN SATURDAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY AFFECTING FRINGES OF PHOENIX
METRO AS OF THIS WRITING. STORMS PRODUCING BOTH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR...GUST FRONTS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNABLE TO
PRODUCE NEW STORMS. WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH
EXISTING STORMS...LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS.  OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...STORMS
HAVE ALSO BEEN AIDED BY AN MCV FROM SONORA. AS THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEBRIS SHOWERS FROM SONORA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
THUS KEPT SOME LOW END POPS GOING. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL
BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF TODAY/S SHORT WAVE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY. ONE CAVEAT THOUGH IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM
BAJA WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS HELD ON TO SOME
POPS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
BETTER. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY IT WEAKENS. IT WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE DESERTS. SO POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DOES
NOT SETUP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME MOIST ADVECTION BEGINNING THEN. AS
USUAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. THIS IS A
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH KEPT THINGS DRY. WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS MORE SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AN ACTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON WITH QUITE A BIT OF STORM ACTIVITY
ALREADY FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING SOME STORM OUTFLOWS TO ALLOW FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR STORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
WE MAY SEE SOME OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX TERMINALS AS SOON AS 22-
00Z AND THEN A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY DUE TO THE STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECTING THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE OUTFLOWS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN DUST OR RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 311934
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1234 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING THIS MORNING ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY WITH TWC CWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS/S.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MCV/S AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THAT. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY
VERY WELL...EVEN THE ONES THAT DID HANDLE THE EARLIER MCS/S FAIRLY
WELL. THE HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS...EARLIER
IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE SIMILARITY
IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 334 AM MST/PDT...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AN ACTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON WITH QUITE A BIT OF STORM ACTIVITY
ALREADY FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING SOME STORM OUTFLOWS TO ALLOW FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR STORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
WE MAY SEE SOME OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX TERMINALS AS SOON AS 22-
00Z AND THEN A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY DUE TO THE STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECTING THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE OUTFLOWS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN DUST OR RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 311934
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1234 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING THIS MORNING ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY WITH TWC CWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS/S.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MCV/S AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THAT. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY
VERY WELL...EVEN THE ONES THAT DID HANDLE THE EARLIER MCS/S FAIRLY
WELL. THE HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS...EARLIER
IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE SIMILARITY
IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 334 AM MST/PDT...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AN ACTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON WITH QUITE A BIT OF STORM ACTIVITY
ALREADY FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING SOME STORM OUTFLOWS TO ALLOW FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR STORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
WE MAY SEE SOME OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX TERMINALS AS SOON AS 22-
00Z AND THEN A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY DUE TO THE STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECTING THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE OUTFLOWS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN DUST OR RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311641
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
941 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING THIS MORNING ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY WITH TWC CWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS/S.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MCV/S AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THAT. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY
VERY WELL...EVEN THE ONES THAT DID HANDLE THE EARLIER MCS/S FAIRLY
WELL. THE HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS...EARLIER
IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE SIMILARITY
IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 334 AM MST/PDT...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311641
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
941 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING THIS MORNING ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY WITH TWC CWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS/S.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MCV/S AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THAT. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY
VERY WELL...EVEN THE ONES THAT DID HANDLE THE EARLIER MCS/S FAIRLY
WELL. THE HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS...EARLIER
IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE SIMILARITY
IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 334 AM MST/PDT...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 311641
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
941 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING THIS MORNING ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY WITH TWC CWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS/S.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MCV/S AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THAT. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY
VERY WELL...EVEN THE ONES THAT DID HANDLE THE EARLIER MCS/S FAIRLY
WELL. THE HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS...EARLIER
IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE SIMILARITY
IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 334 AM MST/PDT...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311641
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
941 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING THIS MORNING ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY WITH TWC CWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS/S.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MCV/S AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THAT. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY
VERY WELL...EVEN THE ONES THAT DID HANDLE THE EARLIER MCS/S FAIRLY
WELL. THE HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS...EARLIER
IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE SIMILARITY
IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 334 AM MST/PDT...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 311154
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
454 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311154
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
454 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 311034
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
334 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311034
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
334 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 310345
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IT WAS ANOTHER INTERESTING MONSOON EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...FROM YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES WESTWARD TO
JOSHUA TREE...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN STEADILY AND SLOWLY PROGRESSED
WESTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OVERALL...DYNAMICS WERE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL TODAY AS AN INVERTED
TROF/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND THE LOWER DESERTS
WERE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND UNDER A MORE SUBSIDENT
REGIME. AT LEAST...THIS WAS TRUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WHERE FEW IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CAPE AND PWAT APPEARED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS THIS EVENING AND THIS HELPED EXPLAIN THE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS
OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED. STILL...THE MOST LIKELY DRIVER FOR THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS BOUNDARY INTERACTION...TYPICAL DURING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR MONSOON. SEVERAL SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL LA PAZ AND MUCH OF
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THE AREAS AROUND DESERT CENTER AND
QUARTZSITE WERE THE HARDEST HIT BY RAINFALL BUT NO REPORTS OF
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO BE RECEIVED FOR THOSE AREAS.

AS OF 830 PM MOST OF THE STORMS HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...IN LOCALES SUCH AS SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY AND NEAR
THE MARICOPA/PIMA COUNTY LINE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE
WILL BE BEHIND THE EXITING INVERTED TROF UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE
MOISTURE AND CAPE REMAIN A BIT HIGHER. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 310345
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IT WAS ANOTHER INTERESTING MONSOON EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...FROM YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES WESTWARD TO
JOSHUA TREE...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN STEADILY AND SLOWLY PROGRESSED
WESTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OVERALL...DYNAMICS WERE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL TODAY AS AN INVERTED
TROF/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND THE LOWER DESERTS
WERE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND UNDER A MORE SUBSIDENT
REGIME. AT LEAST...THIS WAS TRUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WHERE FEW IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CAPE AND PWAT APPEARED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS THIS EVENING AND THIS HELPED EXPLAIN THE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS
OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED. STILL...THE MOST LIKELY DRIVER FOR THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS BOUNDARY INTERACTION...TYPICAL DURING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR MONSOON. SEVERAL SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL LA PAZ AND MUCH OF
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THE AREAS AROUND DESERT CENTER AND
QUARTZSITE WERE THE HARDEST HIT BY RAINFALL BUT NO REPORTS OF
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO BE RECEIVED FOR THOSE AREAS.

AS OF 830 PM MOST OF THE STORMS HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...IN LOCALES SUCH AS SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY AND NEAR
THE MARICOPA/PIMA COUNTY LINE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE
WILL BE BEHIND THE EXITING INVERTED TROF UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE
MOISTURE AND CAPE REMAIN A BIT HIGHER. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 310345
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IT WAS ANOTHER INTERESTING MONSOON EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...FROM YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES WESTWARD TO
JOSHUA TREE...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN STEADILY AND SLOWLY PROGRESSED
WESTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OVERALL...DYNAMICS WERE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL TODAY AS AN INVERTED
TROF/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND THE LOWER DESERTS
WERE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND UNDER A MORE SUBSIDENT
REGIME. AT LEAST...THIS WAS TRUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WHERE FEW IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CAPE AND PWAT APPEARED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS THIS EVENING AND THIS HELPED EXPLAIN THE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS
OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED. STILL...THE MOST LIKELY DRIVER FOR THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS BOUNDARY INTERACTION...TYPICAL DURING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR MONSOON. SEVERAL SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL LA PAZ AND MUCH OF
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THE AREAS AROUND DESERT CENTER AND
QUARTZSITE WERE THE HARDEST HIT BY RAINFALL BUT NO REPORTS OF
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO BE RECEIVED FOR THOSE AREAS.

AS OF 830 PM MOST OF THE STORMS HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...IN LOCALES SUCH AS SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY AND NEAR
THE MARICOPA/PIMA COUNTY LINE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE
WILL BE BEHIND THE EXITING INVERTED TROF UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE
MOISTURE AND CAPE REMAIN A BIT HIGHER. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 310345
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IT WAS ANOTHER INTERESTING MONSOON EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...FROM YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES WESTWARD TO
JOSHUA TREE...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN STEADILY AND SLOWLY PROGRESSED
WESTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OVERALL...DYNAMICS WERE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL TODAY AS AN INVERTED
TROF/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND THE LOWER DESERTS
WERE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND UNDER A MORE SUBSIDENT
REGIME. AT LEAST...THIS WAS TRUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WHERE FEW IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CAPE AND PWAT APPEARED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS THIS EVENING AND THIS HELPED EXPLAIN THE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS
OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED. STILL...THE MOST LIKELY DRIVER FOR THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS BOUNDARY INTERACTION...TYPICAL DURING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR MONSOON. SEVERAL SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL LA PAZ AND MUCH OF
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THE AREAS AROUND DESERT CENTER AND
QUARTZSITE WERE THE HARDEST HIT BY RAINFALL BUT NO REPORTS OF
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO BE RECEIVED FOR THOSE AREAS.

AS OF 830 PM MOST OF THE STORMS HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...IN LOCALES SUCH AS SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY AND NEAR
THE MARICOPA/PIMA COUNTY LINE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE
WILL BE BEHIND THE EXITING INVERTED TROF UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE
MOISTURE AND CAPE REMAIN A BIT HIGHER. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 302209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
309 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY FROM
THE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY TO ONCE AGAIN
HAVE SOME LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH
CARRY POTENTIAL FOR RAPID WIND SHIFTS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
THE TYPICAL SOURCE AREAS FOR TSTORMS ARE QUIET FOR NOW.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED BUT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TSTORMS EXISTS FOR LATER THIS AFTN FOR KBLH AS SHOWERS/TSTMS ALREADY
FORMING TO THE NORTHWEST THRU NORTHEAST.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...WATERS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE





000
FXUS65 KPSR 302209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
309 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY FROM
THE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY TO ONCE AGAIN
HAVE SOME LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH
CARRY POTENTIAL FOR RAPID WIND SHIFTS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
THE TYPICAL SOURCE AREAS FOR TSTORMS ARE QUIET FOR NOW.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED BUT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TSTORMS EXISTS FOR LATER THIS AFTN FOR KBLH AS SHOWERS/TSTMS ALREADY
FORMING TO THE NORTHWEST THRU NORTHEAST.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...WATERS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




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