Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KPSR 211554
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
902 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 AM MST ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
AREA WIDE...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ARIZONA WHERE IT
REMAINS A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO IDAHO/MONTANA/WYOMING/AND
PARTS OF UTAH. SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WAS MADE THIS MORNING...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 413 AM MST/PDT /...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ










000
FXUS65 KPSR 211554
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
902 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 AM MST ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
AREA WIDE...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ARIZONA WHERE IT
REMAINS A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO IDAHO/MONTANA/WYOMING/AND
PARTS OF UTAH. SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WAS MADE THIS MORNING...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 413 AM MST/PDT /...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ











000
FXUS65 KPSR 211554
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
902 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 AM MST ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
AREA WIDE...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ARIZONA WHERE IT
REMAINS A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO IDAHO/MONTANA/WYOMING/AND
PARTS OF UTAH. SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WAS MADE THIS MORNING...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 413 AM MST/PDT /...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ










000
FXUS65 KPSR 211554
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
902 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 AM MST ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
AREA WIDE...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ARIZONA WHERE IT
REMAINS A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO IDAHO/MONTANA/WYOMING/AND
PARTS OF UTAH. SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WAS MADE THIS MORNING...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 413 AM MST/PDT /...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ











000
FXUS65 KPSR 211114
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
413 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ















000
FXUS65 KPSR 211114
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
413 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
















000
FXUS65 KPSR 211114
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
413 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ















000
FXUS65 KPSR 211114
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
413 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
















000
FXUS65 KPSR 210938
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS













000
FXUS65 KPSR 210938
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS












000
FXUS65 KPSR 210457
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HELPED CAUSE THE STORMS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS BEING NUDGED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. CANADA. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A BRUSH-BY FOR ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
THUS...HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. OF
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BROADER AREA OF CAPE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING PINAL AND PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE NAM IS MORE GENEROUS IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. THE NAM HAS PEAK VALUES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OF 400-450 J/KG AND THE GFS PEAKS AT ABOUT 150 J/KG.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ALSO HAS LARGER CIN VALUES. THE LATEST SREF
ALSO HINTS AT SOME CAPE FOR TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 257 PM...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 210457
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HELPED CAUSE THE STORMS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS BEING NUDGED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. CANADA. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A BRUSH-BY FOR ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
THUS...HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. OF
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BROADER AREA OF CAPE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING PINAL AND PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE NAM IS MORE GENEROUS IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. THE NAM HAS PEAK VALUES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OF 400-450 J/KG AND THE GFS PEAKS AT ABOUT 150 J/KG.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ALSO HAS LARGER CIN VALUES. THE LATEST SREF
ALSO HINTS AT SOME CAPE FOR TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 257 PM...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS










000
FXUS65 KPSR 210457
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HELPED CAUSE THE STORMS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS BEING NUDGED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. CANADA. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A BRUSH-BY FOR ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
THUS...HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. OF
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BROADER AREA OF CAPE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING PINAL AND PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE NAM IS MORE GENEROUS IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. THE NAM HAS PEAK VALUES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OF 400-450 J/KG AND THE GFS PEAKS AT ABOUT 150 J/KG.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ALSO HAS LARGER CIN VALUES. THE LATEST SREF
ALSO HINTS AT SOME CAPE FOR TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 257 PM...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 210457
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HELPED CAUSE THE STORMS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS BEING NUDGED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. CANADA. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A BRUSH-BY FOR ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
THUS...HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. OF
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BROADER AREA OF CAPE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING PINAL AND PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE NAM IS MORE GENEROUS IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. THE NAM HAS PEAK VALUES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OF 400-450 J/KG AND THE GFS PEAKS AT ABOUT 150 J/KG.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ALSO HAS LARGER CIN VALUES. THE LATEST SREF
ALSO HINTS AT SOME CAPE FOR TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 257 PM...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS










000
FXUS65 KPSR 202157
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
257 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 202157
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
257 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 202157
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
257 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 202157
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
257 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 201643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA THIS MORNING. THE QG FORCING THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO NEW MEXICO...YIELDING SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WAS ONE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD GILA AND PINAL COUNTIES.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT ELEVATED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
PWATS GENERALLY AROUND 0.75 INCHES PER BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. WITH A
TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY HOWEVER...THE PARENT LOW WILL ACCELERATE AND MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALOFT. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE THAT CORRECTLY FORECAST
SUNDAY`S STORMS ARE MUCH DRIER TODAY SO I WILL HANG ON TO THE IDEA
OF A DRY DAY ACROSS THE DESERTS. OVERALL NOT MAKING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS THINGS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 201643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA THIS MORNING. THE QG FORCING THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO NEW MEXICO...YIELDING SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WAS ONE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD GILA AND PINAL COUNTIES.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT ELEVATED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
PWATS GENERALLY AROUND 0.75 INCHES PER BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. WITH A
TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY HOWEVER...THE PARENT LOW WILL ACCELERATE AND MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALOFT. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE THAT CORRECTLY FORECAST
SUNDAY`S STORMS ARE MUCH DRIER TODAY SO I WILL HANG ON TO THE IDEA
OF A DRY DAY ACROSS THE DESERTS. OVERALL NOT MAKING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS THINGS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 201105
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATED...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ












000
FXUS65 KPSR 201105
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATED...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ













000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS










000
FXUS65 KPSR 200543
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE MONSOON...THOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THE STORMS WAS
DEFINITIVELY FALL-LIKE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -15C.
CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PINAL AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
SE AZ THEN COLLIDED WITH A GUST FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. CONSEQUENTLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED THE NECESSARY ASCENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
INHIBITION. RAIN TOTALS WERE GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT IN SCOTTSDALE WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER A HALF OF
AN INCH.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON
IR SATELLITE ONLY REACHED -29C...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ROUGHLY 350 MB
OR 25-30K FEET ON THE FGZ/TWC SOUNDINGS AND RIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IT IS THIS INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT PREVENTED STORMS FROM
REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DISSIPATE AS WELL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT DOWNWARD TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 200543
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE MONSOON...THOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THE STORMS WAS
DEFINITIVELY FALL-LIKE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -15C.
CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PINAL AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
SE AZ THEN COLLIDED WITH A GUST FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. CONSEQUENTLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED THE NECESSARY ASCENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
INHIBITION. RAIN TOTALS WERE GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT IN SCOTTSDALE WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER A HALF OF
AN INCH.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON
IR SATELLITE ONLY REACHED -29C...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ROUGHLY 350 MB
OR 25-30K FEET ON THE FGZ/TWC SOUNDINGS AND RIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IT IS THIS INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT PREVENTED STORMS FROM
REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DISSIPATE AS WELL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT DOWNWARD TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 200417
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE MONSOON...THOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THE STORMS WAS
DEFINITIVELY FALL-LIKE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -15C.
CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PINAL AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
SE AZ THEN COLLIDED WITH A GUST FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. CONSEQUENTLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED THE NECESSARY ASCENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
INHIBITION. RAIN TOTALS WERE GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT IN SCOTTSDALE WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER A HALF OF
AN INCH.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON
IR SATELLITE ONLY REACHED -29C...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ROUGHLY 350 MB
OR 25-30K FEET ON THE FGZ/TWC SOUNDINGS AND RIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IT IS THIS INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT PREVENTED STORMS FROM
REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DISSIPATE AS WELL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT DOWNWARD TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AOA 9KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM
VICINITY STORMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH UNTIL 01Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KIWA...BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FAVORING
EAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS WILL THIN OUT LATER
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME DEBRIS REMAINING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 200417
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE MONSOON...THOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THE STORMS WAS
DEFINITIVELY FALL-LIKE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -15C.
CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PINAL AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
SE AZ THEN COLLIDED WITH A GUST FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. CONSEQUENTLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED THE NECESSARY ASCENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
INHIBITION. RAIN TOTALS WERE GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT IN SCOTTSDALE WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER A HALF OF
AN INCH.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON
IR SATELLITE ONLY REACHED -29C...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ROUGHLY 350 MB
OR 25-30K FEET ON THE FGZ/TWC SOUNDINGS AND RIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IT IS THIS INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT PREVENTED STORMS FROM
REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DISSIPATE AS WELL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT DOWNWARD TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AOA 9KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM
VICINITY STORMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH UNTIL 01Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KIWA...BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FAVORING
EAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS WILL THIN OUT LATER
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME DEBRIS REMAINING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS








000
FXUS65 KPSR 192214 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
313 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH QUITE A FEW STORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY INTO GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SERVING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE SOME
LIGHTNING OUT OF THESE STORMS. 12Z TWC AND FGZ SOUNDINGS INDICATED
NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND MORE RECENT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS REVEAL THIS INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATER /ALBEIT STILL MARGINAL/...YET THERE ARE A FEW
MEMBERS THAT INDICATE STORMS WILL TRY TO HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND EVEN OBSERVED AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
FOR THAT MATTER/ INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ALOFT AS RIDGING
IS ALREADY TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE 400MB...THUS ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A FEW
RADAR SCANS BEFORE COLLAPSING. WILL HANG ONTO ELEVATED POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY ACROSS THE DESERTS. ONE CONCERN THAT MAY WARRANT FURTHER
ATTENTION AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS ISOLATED DESERT STORMS DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS NW
PINAL COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE I THINK THE THREAT IS
MINIMAL.

WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AOA 9KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM
VICINITY STORMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH UNTIL 01Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KIWA...BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FAVORING
EAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS WILL THIN OUT LATER
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME DEBRIS REMAINING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 192214 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
313 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH QUITE A FEW STORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY INTO GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SERVING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE SOME
LIGHTNING OUT OF THESE STORMS. 12Z TWC AND FGZ SOUNDINGS INDICATED
NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND MORE RECENT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS REVEAL THIS INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATER /ALBEIT STILL MARGINAL/...YET THERE ARE A FEW
MEMBERS THAT INDICATE STORMS WILL TRY TO HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND EVEN OBSERVED AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
FOR THAT MATTER/ INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ALOFT AS RIDGING
IS ALREADY TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE 400MB...THUS ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A FEW
RADAR SCANS BEFORE COLLAPSING. WILL HANG ONTO ELEVATED POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY ACROSS THE DESERTS. ONE CONCERN THAT MAY WARRANT FURTHER
ATTENTION AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS ISOLATED DESERT STORMS DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS NW
PINAL COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE I THINK THE THREAT IS
MINIMAL.

WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AOA 9KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM
VICINITY STORMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH UNTIL 01Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KIWA...BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FAVORING
EAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS WILL THIN OUT LATER
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME DEBRIS REMAINING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 191941
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1241 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH QUITE A FEW STORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY INTO GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SERVING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE SOME
LIGHTNING OUT OF THESE STORMS. 12Z TWC AND FGZ SOUNDINGS INDICATED
NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND MORE RECENT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS REVEAL THIS INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATER /ALBEIT STILL MARGINAL/...YET THERE ARE A FEW
MEMBERS THAT INDICATE STORMS WILL TRY TO HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND EVEN OBSERVED AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
FOR THAT MATTER/ INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ALOFT AS RIDGING
IS ALREADY TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE 400MB...THUS ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A FEW
RADAR SCANS BEFORE COLLAPSING. WILL HANG ONTO ELEVATED POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY ACROSS THE DESERTS. ONE CONCERN THAT MAY WARRANT FURTHER
ATTENTION AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS ISOLATED DESERT STORMS DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS NW
PINAL COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE I THINK THE THREAT IS
MINIMAL.

WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 191941
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1241 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH QUITE A FEW STORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY INTO GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SERVING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE SOME
LIGHTNING OUT OF THESE STORMS. 12Z TWC AND FGZ SOUNDINGS INDICATED
NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND MORE RECENT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS REVEAL THIS INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATER /ALBEIT STILL MARGINAL/...YET THERE ARE A FEW
MEMBERS THAT INDICATE STORMS WILL TRY TO HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND EVEN OBSERVED AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
FOR THAT MATTER/ INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ALOFT AS RIDGING
IS ALREADY TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE 400MB...THUS ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A FEW
RADAR SCANS BEFORE COLLAPSING. WILL HANG ONTO ELEVATED POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY ACROSS THE DESERTS. ONE CONCERN THAT MAY WARRANT FURTHER
ATTENTION AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS ISOLATED DESERT STORMS DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS NW
PINAL COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE I THINK THE THREAT IS
MINIMAL.

WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 191622
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
922 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEARED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE 250-300MB LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHILE
THE 500-700MB LOW IS DISPLACED OVER THE AZ/MEX BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY
REVEALS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN SEEING A BIT OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NOT REALLY SURPRISING AS BOTH TWC AND FGZ 12Z
SOUNDINGS DEPICTED NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID
LEVELS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY MAY TRY
AND DRIFT INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG ACROSS THE DESERTS...CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE
FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD. THE HRRR IS CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
ALL THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND SUGGESTED THERE SHOULD HAVE
BEEN PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH VALLEY AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. THE
LOCAL WRFS...LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE...SSEO...AND SREF ALL HAVE A MORE
REALISTIC ADVERTISEMENT OF STORM CHANCES LATER AND THIS MATCHES WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. ONLY MAKING MINOR REVISIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS COULD LINGER
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS COMPLETELY LOST BUT
OTHERWISE THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD...ANOTHER DAY AROUND 90 LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET. NO
OTHER CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 191622
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
922 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEARED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE 250-300MB LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHILE
THE 500-700MB LOW IS DISPLACED OVER THE AZ/MEX BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY
REVEALS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN SEEING A BIT OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NOT REALLY SURPRISING AS BOTH TWC AND FGZ 12Z
SOUNDINGS DEPICTED NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID
LEVELS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY MAY TRY
AND DRIFT INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG ACROSS THE DESERTS...CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE
FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD. THE HRRR IS CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
ALL THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND SUGGESTED THERE SHOULD HAVE
BEEN PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH VALLEY AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. THE
LOCAL WRFS...LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE...SSEO...AND SREF ALL HAVE A MORE
REALISTIC ADVERTISEMENT OF STORM CHANCES LATER AND THIS MATCHES WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. ONLY MAKING MINOR REVISIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS COULD LINGER
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS COMPLETELY LOST BUT
OTHERWISE THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD...ANOTHER DAY AROUND 90 LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET. NO
OTHER CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 191131
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
431 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PRETTY COMPLEX LOOKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS NOW BECOME
VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...MEANING THE 250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS...THE 300 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
FLAGSTAFF...AND THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ
WERE MOSTLY HIGH BASED AND RELATED TO A STRONG 300 MB DIFLUENT FIELD
IN EASTERN AZ.

SINCE THE TROF OVER AZ WAS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...
AGEOSTROPHIC/SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AND OUR
QUESTION IS...WHY IS THE GFS MODEL PUMPING LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON AND CASA GRANDE FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AT MONSOON LEVELS...I.E 8 DEG C DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 800 AND
850 MB. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING DIDNT
SHOW ANY MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HIGH...AND...EVEN THOUGH CHIHUAHUA AND
GUAYMAS MEXICO SOUNDINGS WERE MISSING...GPS-IPW PRECIP WATER (PW)
PLOTS AT 08Z SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ CORNER. THEREFORE WE
THINK THE GFS MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE OVERDONE AND WE WILL ADJUST
THEM FOR OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TODAY IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH IN OUR MINDS EYE WE HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS...CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHWRS. CLEARING TONIGHT.

MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB












000
FXUS65 KPSR 191131
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
431 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PRETTY COMPLEX LOOKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS NOW BECOME
VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...MEANING THE 250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS...THE 300 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
FLAGSTAFF...AND THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ
WERE MOSTLY HIGH BASED AND RELATED TO A STRONG 300 MB DIFLUENT FIELD
IN EASTERN AZ.

SINCE THE TROF OVER AZ WAS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...
AGEOSTROPHIC/SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AND OUR
QUESTION IS...WHY IS THE GFS MODEL PUMPING LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON AND CASA GRANDE FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AT MONSOON LEVELS...I.E 8 DEG C DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 800 AND
850 MB. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING DIDNT
SHOW ANY MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HIGH...AND...EVEN THOUGH CHIHUAHUA AND
GUAYMAS MEXICO SOUNDINGS WERE MISSING...GPS-IPW PRECIP WATER (PW)
PLOTS AT 08Z SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ CORNER. THEREFORE WE
THINK THE GFS MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE OVERDONE AND WE WILL ADJUST
THEM FOR OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TODAY IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH IN OUR MINDS EYE WE HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS...CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHWRS. CLEARING TONIGHT.

MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB













000
FXUS65 KPSR 191003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PRETTY COMPLEX LOOKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS NOW BECOME
VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...MEANING THE 250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS...THE 300 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
FLAGSTAFF...AND THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ
WERE MOSTLY HIGH BASED AND RELATED TO A STRONG 300 MB DIFLUENT FIELD
IN EASTERN AZ.

SINCE THE TROF OVER AZ WAS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...
AGEOSTROPHIC/SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AND OUR
QUESTION IS...WHY IS THE GFS MODEL PUMPING LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON AND CASA GRANDE FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AT MONSOON LEVELS...I.E 8 DEG C DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 800 AND
850 MB. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING DIDNT
SHOW ANY MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HIGH...AND...EVEN THOUGH CHIHUAHUA AND
GUAYMAS MEXICO SOUNDINGS WERE MISSING...GPS-IPW PRECIP WATER (PW)
PLOTS AT 08Z SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ CORNER. THEREFORE WE
THINK THE GFS MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE OVERDONE AND WE WILL ADJUST
THEM FOR OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TODAY IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH IN OUR MINDS EYE WE HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS...CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHWRS. CLEARING TONIGHT.

MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB










000
FXUS65 KPSR 191003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PRETTY COMPLEX LOOKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS NOW BECOME
VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...MEANING THE 250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS...THE 300 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
FLAGSTAFF...AND THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ
WERE MOSTLY HIGH BASED AND RELATED TO A STRONG 300 MB DIFLUENT FIELD
IN EASTERN AZ.

SINCE THE TROF OVER AZ WAS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...
AGEOSTROPHIC/SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AND OUR
QUESTION IS...WHY IS THE GFS MODEL PUMPING LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON AND CASA GRANDE FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AT MONSOON LEVELS...I.E 8 DEG C DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 800 AND
850 MB. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING DIDNT
SHOW ANY MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HIGH...AND...EVEN THOUGH CHIHUAHUA AND
GUAYMAS MEXICO SOUNDINGS WERE MISSING...GPS-IPW PRECIP WATER (PW)
PLOTS AT 08Z SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ CORNER. THEREFORE WE
THINK THE GFS MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE OVERDONE AND WE WILL ADJUST
THEM FOR OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TODAY IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH IN OUR MINDS EYE WE HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS...CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHWRS. CLEARING TONIGHT.

MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB









000
FXUS65 KPSR 190533
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 190533
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 190416
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 190416
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 190416
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 190416
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 182024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
125 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE TROUGH IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRYING NOTED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SKIES WERE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S AS OF 20Z.

THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 182024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
125 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE TROUGH IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRYING NOTED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SKIES WERE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S AS OF 20Z.

THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities