000
FXUS65 KPSR 230420
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANTICIPATE SOME MODEST COOLING THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MINOR COOLING IS
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK BUT OTHERWISE...HIGHS ON THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONGER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN BEYOND 8PM
MST/03Z WINDS AT KPHX WERE GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS. MSL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE EVENING DECREASING THE
ELEVATED WINDS AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA INCLUDING BLYTHE...EL CENTRO AND THE INTERSTATE 8
CORRIDOR WEST OF EL CENTRO OVERNIGHT. GUSTS AT TIME WILL PUSH
30KTS...BUT REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER LAST FEW IR SATELLITE FRAMES INDICATE SOME ISOLATED
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEEWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS IN CA...THE SKY ISLANDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND
EVEN CLOSER TOWARDS THE PHX METRO OVER THE ESTRELLA MTNS. THESE
CLOUD FEATURES COUPLED WITH THE RIPPLED APPEARANCE OVER THE AREA ON
A WATER VAPOR LOOP ARE INDICATIVE OF ELEVATED RIDGETOP AND MID LEVEL
WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE FORM OF SKY
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND MAY DISSIPATE AS QUICKLY AS THEY FORM.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO
TODAY/S 103F READINGS BOTH IN PHOENIX AND YUMA. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 345 PM MST/PDT/...
ANTICIPATE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...REMAINING CONSISTENTLY BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...RUNNING WARMER TODAY OVER THE ARIZONA
FORECAST ZONES WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHTLY COOLER IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXCEPT JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. EXPECT MORE NOTICEABLE
DROP IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LARGE UPPER
LOW MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT. THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE THOUGH
THE UPPER LOW IS NOT AS DEEP. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MODERATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BREEZINESS WILL CONTINUE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME MINOR COOLING IS POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ROTATE A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE
PARENT LOW EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA AND AZ...WITH UPDATED GRIDDED
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOWING A BLEND BETWEEN THE WARMER/SLOWER
ECMWF AND THE COOLER/FASTER GFS. BUT OVERALL...HIGHS ON THE LOWER
DESERTS REMAIN IN THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST...FAVORING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT
ALL AIRFIELDS. PEAK GUSTS AT KIPL/KBLH MAY EXCEED 30KT AT
TIMES...WITH GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL AZ OVER 22KT LIKELY. EXPECT WINDS
TO TAPER OFF AND RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SW OR WEST AT
KIPL AND KBLH ALL NIGHT. LESS WIND EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT THERE
WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT MOST AIRFIELDS AFTER ABOUT 20Z. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...SAVE FOR SOME ISOLATED CLOUDS JUST
DOWNWIND OF AREA RIDGETOPS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH POSSIBLE. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR
TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/PERCHA
AVIATION...CB/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB

000
FXUS65 KPSR 222246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 PM MST WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANTICIPATE SOME MODEST COOLING THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MINOR COOLING IS
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK BUT OTHERWISE...HIGHS ON THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WASHINGTON STATE HAS SHIFTED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WHERE GUSTS HAVE REACHED OR EXCEEDED 30 MPH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IN FAR WESTERN
IMPERIAL COUNTY. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT STILL GUSTING IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. ANTICIPATE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...REMAINING CONSISTENTLY BREEZY
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...RUNNING WARMER TODAY
OVER THE ARIZONA FORECAST ZONES WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...EXCEPT JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK
WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
EXPECT MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT. THEN LITTLE
CHANGE FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE THOUGH
THE UPPER LOW IS NOT AS DEEP. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MODERATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BREEZINESS WILL CONTINUE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME MINOR COOLING IS POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ROTATE A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE
PARENT LOW EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA AND AZ...WITH UPDATED GRIDDED
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOWING A BLEND BETWEEN THE WARMER/SLOWER
ECMWF AND THE COOLER/FASTER GFS. BUT OVERALL...HIGHS ON THE LOWER
DESERTS REMAIN IN THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST...FAVORING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT
ALL AIRFIELDS. PEAK GUSTS AT KIPL/KBLH MAY EXCEED 30KT AT
TIMES...WITH GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL AZ OVER 22KT LIKELY. EXPECT WINDS
TO TAPER OFF AND RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SW OR WEST AT
KIPL AND KBLH ALL NIGHT. LESS WIND EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT THERE
WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT MOST AIRFIELDS AFTER ABOUT 20Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH POSSIBLE. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR
TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...AJ/PERCHA
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB

000
FXUS65 KPSR 221710
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 AM MST WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR PORTLAND OREGON THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE
LAS VEGAS...VEF...SOUNDING....AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGHING
EXPANDS SOUTHWARD A BIT. THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES/VORT
LOBES MOVING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
BREEZINESS...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THERE IS LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
WARMING TO BE REALIZED TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...LEFT
BEHIND BY THE DEPARTING RIDGE. FURTHER WEST...SOMEWHAT LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE TROUGH...MORE NOTICEABLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. OTHER
THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DEW POINT GRIDS TODAY...CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 200 AM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW BRINGING RAINFALL...AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UNDER A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT WOBBLES AROUND...AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM WITH BE GUSTY AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS THE
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...REMAINING BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LIGHTER EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...WITH SOME LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME FURTHER COOLING IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ROTATE A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE PARENT
LOW EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA AND AZ...WITH UPDATED GRIDDED
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOWING A BLEND BETWEEN THE WARMER/SLOWER
ECMWF AND THE COOLER/FASTER GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 19Z WED...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND. FROM 19Z WED TO 03Z
THU...CLEAR SKIES. INCREASING AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS AREA-WIDE...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY...WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH POSSIBLE. SINGLE
DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/CB

000
FXUS65 KPSR 221100
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 AM MST WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW BRINGING RAINFALL...AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UNDER A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT WOBBLES AROUND...AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM WITH BE GUSTY AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS THE
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...REMAINING BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LIGHTER EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...WITH SOME LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME FURTHER COOLING IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ROTATE A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE PARENT
LOW EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA AND AZ...WITH UPDATED GRIDDED
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOWING A BLEND BETWEEN THE WARMER/SLOWER
ECMWF AND THE COOLER/FASTER GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 19Z WED...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND. FROM 19Z WED TO 03Z
THU...CLEAR SKIES. INCREASING AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS AREA-WIDE...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY...WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH POSSIBLE. SINGLE
DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/CB

000
FXUS65 KPSR 220901
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 AM MST WED MAY 2W 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW BRINGING RAINFALL...AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UNDER A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT WOBBLES AROUND...AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM WITH BE GUSTY AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS THE
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...REMAINING BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LIGHTER EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...WITH SOME LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME FURTHER COOLING IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ROTATE A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE PARENT
LOW EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA AND AZ...WITH UPDATED GRIDDED
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOWING A BLEND BETWEEN THE WARMER/SLOWER
ECMWF AND THE COOLER/FASTER GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS...WITH
ENHANCED OVERNIGHT BREEZINESS EXPECTED FOR KIPL AND KBLH. STREAM OF
HIGH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED NEAR SUNRISE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY OVER THE AREA WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH POSSIBLE. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR
TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB

000
FXUS65 KPSR 220901 RRA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 AM MST WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW BRINGING RAINFALL...AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UNDER A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT WOBBLES AROUND...AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM WITH BE GUSTY AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS THE
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...REMAINING BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LIGHTER EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...WITH SOME LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME FURTHER COOLING IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ROTATE A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE PARENT
LOW EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA AND AZ...WITH UPDATED GRIDDED
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOWING A BLEND BETWEEN THE WARMER/SLOWER
ECMWF AND THE COOLER/FASTER GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS...WITH
ENHANCED OVERNIGHT BREEZINESS EXPECTED FOR KIPL AND KBLH. STREAM OF
HIGH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED NEAR SUNRISE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY OVER THE AREA WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH POSSIBLE. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR
TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB

000
FXUS65 KPSR 220334
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
834 PM MST TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DYNAMIC PATTERN STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AMERICAN CONTINENT
WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND INTO
THE CANADIAN PROVINCES THIS EVENING. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT LESS DEFINED WITH RIDGING
STRETCHING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST. LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SINK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...QUICKLY USHERING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST. HEALTHY PLUME
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALSO DRIFTED SOUTH INTO THE AREA IN COORDINATION
WITH THE LOW LEADING TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA
OF MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAC NW LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST SITES ACROSS THE REGION AVOIDED
TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS TODAY...LOCALES SUCH AS GILA BEND AND YUMA
WERE A FEW OF THE EXCEPTIONS. WITH THE PAC NW LOW KEEPING GREATER
THICKNESS AND RIDGE HEIGHTS LOWERED...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS /MOSTLY
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS/ WILL PERSIST FOR THE WEEK.
NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 225 PM MST/PDT/...
AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE
FELT...AFTERNOON TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHILE SOME RESIDUAL WARMING OCCURS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALSO TRANSLATE TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL
HAVE VARIOUS VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES.  THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL KEEP A STRONG RIDGE FROM
DEVELOPING WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING EXCESSIVELY
WARM. OVERALL...LOOK FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH
VERY DRY AIR.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SOME DIFFERENCE OF OPINION BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF. THE LATTER
DEPICTS SOME NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE TROUGH WHILE THE FORMER SHOWS
SOME DIGGING. THE GEFS MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE GFS IS A BIT OVER
DONE. TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH...WEIGHTING TOWARD THE ECMWF BASED
GUIDANCE...TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DONT CHANGE
MUCH WITH PERHAPS A VERY SUBTLE COOLING TREND. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS...WITH
ENHANCED OVERNIGHT BREEZINESS EXPECTED FOR KIPL AND KBLH. STREAM OF
HIGH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED NEAR SUNRISE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY OVER THE AREA WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH POSSIBLE. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR
TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB

000
FXUS65 KPSR 212227 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 PM MST TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPS RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
24 HOURS AGO. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. CIRRUS IS
MOVING IN BUT IT ISNT THICK. LOOKING AT THE LARGER SCALE...A REX
PATTERN IS PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS MOVING INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT...AFTERNOON TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
WHILE SOME RESIDUAL WARMING OCCURS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO TRANSLATE TO STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL HAVE VARIOUS VORT LOBES
ROTATING THROUGH THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.  THE POSITION
OF THE LOW WILL KEEP A STRONG RIDGE FROM DEVELOPING WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING EXCESSIVELY WARM. OVERALL...LOOK FOR
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH VERY DRY AIR.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SOME DIFFERENCE OF OPINION BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF. THE LATTER
DEPICTS SOME NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE TROUGH WHILE THE FORMER SHOWS
SOME DIGGING. THE GEFS MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE GFS IS A BIT OVER
DONE. TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH...WEIGHTING TOWARD THE ECMWF BASED
GUIDANCE...TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DONT CHANGE
MUCH WITH PERHAPS A VERY SUBTLE COOLING TREND. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN NEXT 24 HOURS
KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...THO WE WILL SEE SOME AFTN/EVE
BREEZINESS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST AT KIPL/KBLH. OVERALL WINDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DESERTS WILL FAVOR NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES THRU MID
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AFTER 20Z PERSISTING
THRU MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING SELY AFTER 2 AM WED. MAY SEE A FEW
AFTN GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS INCLUDING KPHX. BAND OF BKN CIRRUS TO
MOVE THRU THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING
FEW-SCT250 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY OVER THE AREA WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH POSSIBLE. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR
TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB

000
FXUS65 KPSR 212123
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPS RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
24 HOURS AGO. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. CIRRUS IS
MOVING IN BUT IT ISNT THICK. LOOKING AT THE LARGER SCALE...A REX
PATTERN IS PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS MOVING INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT...AFTERNOON TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
WHILE SOME RESIDUAL WARMING OCCURS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO TRANSLATE TO STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL HAVE VARIOUS VORT LOBES
ROTATING THROUGH THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.  THE POSITION
OF THE LOW WILL KEEP A STRONG RIDGE FROM DEVELOPING WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING EXCESSIVELY WARM. OVERALL...LOOK FOR
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH VERY DRY AIR.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SOME DIFFERENCE OF OPINION BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF. THE LATTER
DEPICTS SOME NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE TROUGH WHILE THE FORMER SHOWS
SOME DIGGING. THE GEFS MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE GFS IS A BIT OVER
DONE. TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH...WEIGHTING TOWARD THE ECMWF BASED
GUIDANCE...TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DONT CHANGE
MUCH WITH PERHAPS A VERY SUBTLE COOLING TREND. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN NEXT 24 HOURS
KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...THO WE WILL SEE SOME AFTN/EVE
BREEZINESS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST AT KIPL/KBLH. OVERALL WINDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DESERTS WILL FAVOR NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES THRU MID
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AFTER 20Z PERSISTING
THRU MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING SELY AFTER 2 AM WED. MAY SEE A FEW
AFTN GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS INCLUDING KPHX. BAND OF BKN CIRRUS TO
MOVE THRU THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING
FEW-SCT250 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
STATES NORTH OF AZ. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...
HOWEVER GUSTY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR TO FAIR OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 211721 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 AM MST TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT
BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS STARTING LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A
NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AND
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO ARIZONA TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGING COUPLED WITH DRIER AIR WILL HELP WITH SOME
WARMING TODAY...MORE NOTICEABLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. CIRRUS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TODAYS DEW POINT/RH GRIDS...NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 301 AM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
SOME SLIGHT WARMING TAKING PLACE. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING WILL SOMEWHAT LAG BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
100 ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES TODAY AND THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO SEE A SLUG OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
300-400MB MOVE THROUGH TODAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF
BROKEN CIRRUS...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
AFTERNOON HIGHS. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL THEN BE SCARCE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TAKES HOLD STARTING WEDNESDAY
WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STALLING...WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS
STATES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT
ACROSS THE REGION...MORE SO ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE EFFECT
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
TEMPERATURES. THE COOLDOWN STARTING THURSDAY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...AND THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE SAME PERIOD. THE
REGION WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX UP TO 700MB.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN NEXT 24 HOURS
KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...THO WE WILL SEE SOME AFTN/EVE
BREEZINESS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST AT KIPL/KBLH. OVERALL WINDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DESERTS WILL FAVOR NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES THRU MID
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AFTER 20Z PERSISTING
THRU MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING SELY AFTER 2 AM WED. MAY SEE A FEW
AFTN GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS INCLUDING KPHX. BAND OF BKN CIRRUS TO
MOVE THRU THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING
FEW-SCT250 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
STATES NORTH OF AZ. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...
HOWEVER GUSTY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR TO FAIR OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 211704
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1005 AM MST TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT
BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS STARTING LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A
NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AND
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO ARIZONA TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGING COUPLED WITH DRIER AIR WILL HELP WITH SOME
WARMING TODAY...MORE NOTICEABLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. CIRRUS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TODAYS DEW POINT/RH GRIDS...NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 301 AM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
SOME SLIGHT WARMING TAKING PLACE. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING WILL SOMEWHAT LAG BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
100 ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES TODAY AND THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO SEE A SLUG OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
300-400MB MOVE THROUGH TODAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF
BROKEN CIRRUS...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
AFTERNOON HIGHS. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL THEN BE SCARCE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TAKES HOLD STARTING WEDNESDAY
WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STALLING...WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS
STATES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT
ACROSS THE REGION...MORE SO ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE EFFECT
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
TEMPERATURES. THE COOLDOWN STARTING THURSDAY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...AND THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE SAME PERIOD. THE
REGION WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX UP TO 700MB.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 19Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND. FROM 19Z TUE TO 02Z WED...
CLEAR SKIES. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KTS...OCCASIONAL 15 KTS LATE AFTN.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
STATES NORTH OF AZ. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...
HOWEVER GUSTY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR TO FAIR OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 211030
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 AM MST TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT
BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS STARTING LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
SOME SLIGHT WARMING TAKING PLACE. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING WILL SOMEWHAT LAG BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
100 ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES TODAY AND THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO SEE A SLUG OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
300-400MB MOVE THROUGH TODAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF
BROKEN CIRRUS...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
AFTERNOON HIGHS. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL THEN BE SCARCE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TAKES HOLD STARTING WEDNESDAY
WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STALLING...WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS
STATES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT
ACROSS THE REGION...MORE SO ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE EFFECT
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
TEMPERATURES. THE COOLDOWN STARTING THURSDAY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...AND THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE SAME PERIOD. THE
REGION WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX UP TO 700MB.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 19Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND. FROM 19Z TUE TO 02Z WED...
CLEAR SKIES. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KTS...OCCASIONAL 15 KTS LATE AFTN.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
STATES NORTH OF AZ. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...
HOWEVER GUSTY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR TO FAIR OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 211001 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
301 AM MST TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT
BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS STARTING LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
SOME SLIGHT WARMING TAKING PLACE. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING WILL SOMEWHAT LAG BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
100 ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES TODAY AND THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO SEE A SLUG OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
300-400MB MOVE THROUGH TODAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF
BROKEN CIRRUS...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
AFTERNOON HIGHS. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL THEN BE SCARCE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TAKES HOLD STARTING WEDNESDAY
WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STALLING...WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS
STATES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT
ACROSS THE REGION...MORE SO ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE EFFECT
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
TEMPERATURES. THE COOLDOWN STARTING THURSDAY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...AND THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE SAME PERIOD. THE
REGION WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX UP TO 700MB.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNRISE BEFORE BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE NATURE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS PATTERNS SETTING
UP FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 KTS
OR LESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS EMBEDDED DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS BY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
BE THE RULE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND POOR TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 210954
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
254 AM MST TUE MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT
BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS STARTING LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
SOME SLIGHT WARMING TAKING PLACE. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING WILL SOMEWHAT LAG BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
100 ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES TODAY AND THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO SEE A SLUG OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
300-400MB MOVE THROUGH TODAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF
BROKEN CIRRUS...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
AFTERNOON HIGHS. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL THEN BE SCARCE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TAKES HOLD STARTING WEDNESDAY
WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STALLING...WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS
STATES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT
ACROSS THE REGION...MORE SO ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE EFFECT
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
TEMPERATURES. THE COOLDOWN STARTING THURSDAY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...AND THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE SAME PERIOD. THE
REGION WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX UP TO 700MB.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNRISE BEFORE BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE NATURE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS PATTERNS SETTING
UP FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 KTS
OR LESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS EMBEDDED DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS BY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
BE THE RULE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND POOR TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 210415 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE
EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
STARTING LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. TRAILING END OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET
TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA KEPT EARLIER PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENED. WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH EVEN PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR OBSERVING 31KT /NEAR 36 MPH/ GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE
SINCE TAPERED BACK BUT MAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN MORE WESTERLY OR
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE POTENTIALLY TAKING UP THEIR TYPICAL
DRAINAGE HEADINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...MADE SOME MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO TREND
WITH CURRENTS OBS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS /ISSUED AT 153 PM MST/PDT/...
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUIET. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD TOMORROW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONING ITSELF OVER ARIZONA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A LAG IN TERMS OF WARMING...AS WE SHOULD ONLY GAIN ABOUT
1C OF BL WARMING TOMORROW BEFORE REACHING THE PEAK ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAY COME UP JUST SHORT OF THE 100 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT SHOULD CERTAINLY HIT 100-103 BY MID WEEK.
INHERITED FORECAST CLOSELY MATCHED BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
WELL BUT AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY RETREATS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT. HIGHS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR LATE THIS WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY HIGH
NOW THAT THE EXPANSIVENESS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AT LEAST PARTIALLY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL GET...WITH A MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERN SOLUTION IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDINESS. MOST DAYS
WILL ALSO SEE FAIRLY BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 30 MPH. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BEYOND THIS
COMING WEEKEND SUGGESTS A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNRISE BEFORE BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE NATURE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS PATTERNS SETTING
UP FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 KTS
OR LESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS EMBEDDED DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS BY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
BE THE RULE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND POOR TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 202243 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 PM MST MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE
EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
STARTING LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. ACROSS THE REGION...THIS HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY WINDS AND A
FEW MOUNTAIN CU...ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUIET. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD TOMORROW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONING ITSELF OVER ARIZONA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A LAG IN TERMS OF WARMING...AS WE SHOULD ONLY GAIN ABOUT
1C OF BL WARMING TOMORROW BEFORE REACHING THE PEAK ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAY COME UP JUST SHORT OF THE 100 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT SHOULD CERTAINLY HIT 100-103 BY MID WEEK.
INHERITED FORECAST CLOSELY MATCHED BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
WELL BUT AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY RETREATS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT. HIGHS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR LATE THIS WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY HIGH
NOW THAT THE EXPANSIVENESS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AT LEAST PARTIALLY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL GET...WITH A MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERN SOLUTION IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDINESS. MOST DAYS
WILL ALSO SEE FAIRLY BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 30 MPH. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BEYOND THIS
COMING WEEKEND SUGGESTS A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
WEST AND NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NORTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING. LINGERING NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
TRANSITIONING TO DOWNVALLEY ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING
NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING BEFORE FAVORING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS EMBEDDED DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS BY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
BE THE RULE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND POOR TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 202052
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
153 PM MST MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE
EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
STARTING LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. ACROSS THE REGION...THIS HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY WINDS AND A
FEW MOUNTAIN CU...ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUIET. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD TOMORROW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONING ITSELF OVER ARIZONA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A LAG IN TERMS OF WARMING...AS WE SHOULD ONLY GAIN ABOUT
1C OF BL WARMING TOMORROW BEFORE REACHING THE PEAK ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAY COME UP JUST SHORT OF THE 100 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT SHOULD CERTAINLY HIT 100-103 BY MID WEEK.
INHERITED FORECAST CLOSELY MATCHED BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
WELL BUT AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY RETREATS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT. HIGHS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR LATE THIS WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY HIGH
NOW THAT THE EXPANSIVENESS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AT LEAST PARTIALLY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL GET...WITH A MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERN SOLUTION IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDINESS. MOST DAYS
WILL ALSO SEE FAIRLY BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 30 MPH. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BEYOND THIS
COMING WEEKEND SUGGESTS A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THROUGH 03Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES. INCREASING WEST WIND 15 TO 25 KNOTS
BTWN 19Z MON AND 03Z TUE. FROM 03Z TUE TO 12Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES.
WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
THROUGH 03Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES. INCREASING NORTH WIND 17 TO 27 KNOTS
FROM 19Z MON TO 03Z TUE. FROM 03Z TUE TO 12Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LARGE AND STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN STATES NORTH OF AZ. HOWEVER...GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH LOW
HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP EVERY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL
BECOME GOOD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...BUT REMAIN POOR ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 201627
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
926 AM MST MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE
EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
STARTING LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS ABUNDANT DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. MEANWHILE A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AS OF 16Z.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN THIS WEEKEND.
A FEW DISTANT CU TO THE EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY BUT MOST SPOTS SHOULD STAY
BELOW THE CENTURY MARK. SOME BREEZINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE
OF THE WEAK TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER DESERT READINGS AROUND 100F BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW THEREAFTER. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR
LATE THIS WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY HIGH NOW THAT THE
EXPANSIVENESS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AT
LEAST PARTIALLY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING THURSDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL GET...WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERN SOLUTION IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
EITHER WAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDINESS. MOST DAYS WILL ALSO SEE FAIRLY
BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 30 MPH. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BEYOND THIS COMING WEEKEND
SUGGESTS A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THROUGH 03Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES. INCREASING WEST WIND 15 TO 25 KNOTS
BTWN 19Z MON AND 03Z TUE. FROM 03Z TUE TO 12Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES.
WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
THROUGH 03Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES. INCREASING NORTH WIND 17 TO 27 KNOTS
FROM 19Z MON TO 03Z TUE. FROM 03Z TUE TO 12Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LARGE AND STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN STATES NORTH OF AZ. HOWEVER...GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH LOW
HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP EVERY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL
BECOME GOOD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...BUT REMAIN POOR ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 201205
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE
EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
STARTING LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY SEE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ERODE AS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE NUDGES ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD TODAY BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OUR AREA.
THE FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE
MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED STARTING LATE THIS MORNING DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER DESERT READINGS AROUND 100F BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW THEREAFTER. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR
LATE THIS WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY HIGH NOW THAT THE
EXPANSIVENESS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AT
LEAST PARTIALLY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING THURSDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL GET...WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERN SOLUTION IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
EITHER WAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDINESS. MOST DAYS WILL ALSO SEE FAIRLY
BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 30 MPH. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BEYOND THIS COMING WEEKEND
SUGGESTS A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THROUGH 03Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES. INCREASING WEST WIND 15 TO 25 KNOTS
BTWN 19Z MON AND 03Z TUE. FROM 03Z TUE TO 12Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES.
WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
THROUGH 03Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES. INCREASING NORTH WIND 17 TO 27 KNOTS
FROM 19Z MON TO 03Z TUE. FROM 03Z TUE TO 12Z TUE...CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LARGE AND STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN STATES NORTH OF AZ. HOWEVER...GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH LOW
HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP EVERY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL
BECOME GOOD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...BUT REMAIN POOR ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 200937
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
237 AM MST MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE
EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
STARTING LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY SEE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ERODE AS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE NUDGES ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD TODAY BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OUR AREA.
THE FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE
MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED STARTING LATE THIS MORNING DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER DESERT READINGS AROUND 100F BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW THEREAFTER. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR
LATE THIS WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY HIGH NOW THAT THE
EXPANSIVENESS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AT
LEAST PARTIALLY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING THURSDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL GET...WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERN SOLUTION IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
EITHER WAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDINESS. MOST DAYS WILL ALSO SEE FAIRLY
BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 30 MPH. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BEYOND THIS COMING WEEKEND
SUGGESTS A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRAINAGE FLOW
GIVING WAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD
REACH AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
01Z-03Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TREKS TOWARDS THE
FOUR CORNERS. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AT KBLH
WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 25-30 KT BETWEEN 15Z AND 22Z
MONDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THEREAFTER...LIKELY SUBSIDING BELOW 10
KT AS EARLY AS 02Z TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND BE DISPLACED BY A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES...CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BECOME GOOD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...REMAINING POOR ELSEWHERE. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ