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000
FXUS65 KPSR 310425
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
924 PM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND AND
HIGHS IN THE 110-115 RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE DESERTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WAS CONFINED IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN ROTATING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH. BIG STORY TODAY WAS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. A LOOK AT
READINGS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MESOWEST SHOWS NUMEROUS REPORTS AT OR
ABOVE 110 DEGREES. AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR WE HIT 111...WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF THE 115 DEGREE RECORD SET IN 1934. IT APPEARS THE 92
DEGREE LOW TEMP THIS MORNING WILL ECLIPSE THE HIGH MINIMUM RECORD OF
90...SET IN 1996.

TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN 24-HOURS
AGO...WHICH MEANS THE DAY WILL START OF ON A VERY WARM NOTE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...THOUGH MAYBE A TAD COOLER...WILL STILL END
UP AT OR ABOVE EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

FORECAST PACKAGE OVERALL IS ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST WED JUL 30 2014

MONSOON HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AZ/NM BORDER...WHICH IS
RESULTING IN A WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE HOT CONDITIONS AND AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. IN
THE PHOENIX AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE 100
DEGREE MARK AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 92 DEGREES. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD WARM MIN OF 90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN
1996. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN RUNNING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.

GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KNOCK ABOUT A
DEGREE OFF FORECAST TEMPERATURES...THOUGH HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
EXCESSIVE AND A WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.

REMAINDER FROM MORNING DISCUSSION...

MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LAG A BIT AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DESERTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT FOR FRIDAY /STILL GENERALLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT
CHANCES/ BUT HIGHER VALUES SEEM WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AT 700-500MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND
20KTS...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND
8-10 G/KG. IF THOSE VALUES ACTUALLY COME TO PASS IT COULD END UP
BEING QUITE ACTIVE SATURDAY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY HOWEVER ITS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO GET BACK TO BACK ACTIVE
DAYS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR SUNDAY.

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD TO NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...ADVECTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN DECREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ONLY FEW/SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS...AND
MUCH LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL CHANGES MAY BE
DELAYED OR ABSENT. EVEN PROLONGED PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KT. SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTN/EVE AS HUMIDITY VALUES START
TO CLIMB.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF MIDWEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE
CLASSICAL MONSOONAL SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE DESERTS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST EACH DAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. CORRESPONDINGLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
OFF...DROPPING FROM AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT WARMING WILL RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER SOMEWHAT. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD...AND THEY SHOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     THURSDAY AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT
     THURSDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MCLANE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSH/LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE/MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB














000
FXUS65 KPSR 310425
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
924 PM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND AND
HIGHS IN THE 110-115 RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE DESERTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WAS CONFINED IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN ROTATING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH. BIG STORY TODAY WAS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. A LOOK AT
READINGS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MESOWEST SHOWS NUMEROUS REPORTS AT OR
ABOVE 110 DEGREES. AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR WE HIT 111...WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF THE 115 DEGREE RECORD SET IN 1934. IT APPEARS THE 92
DEGREE LOW TEMP THIS MORNING WILL ECLIPSE THE HIGH MINIMUM RECORD OF
90...SET IN 1996.

TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN 24-HOURS
AGO...WHICH MEANS THE DAY WILL START OF ON A VERY WARM NOTE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...THOUGH MAYBE A TAD COOLER...WILL STILL END
UP AT OR ABOVE EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

FORECAST PACKAGE OVERALL IS ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST WED JUL 30 2014

MONSOON HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AZ/NM BORDER...WHICH IS
RESULTING IN A WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE HOT CONDITIONS AND AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. IN
THE PHOENIX AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE 100
DEGREE MARK AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 92 DEGREES. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD WARM MIN OF 90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN
1996. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN RUNNING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.

GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KNOCK ABOUT A
DEGREE OFF FORECAST TEMPERATURES...THOUGH HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
EXCESSIVE AND A WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.

REMAINDER FROM MORNING DISCUSSION...

MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LAG A BIT AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DESERTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT FOR FRIDAY /STILL GENERALLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT
CHANCES/ BUT HIGHER VALUES SEEM WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AT 700-500MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND
20KTS...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND
8-10 G/KG. IF THOSE VALUES ACTUALLY COME TO PASS IT COULD END UP
BEING QUITE ACTIVE SATURDAY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY HOWEVER ITS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO GET BACK TO BACK ACTIVE
DAYS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR SUNDAY.

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD TO NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...ADVECTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN DECREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ONLY FEW/SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS...AND
MUCH LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL CHANGES MAY BE
DELAYED OR ABSENT. EVEN PROLONGED PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KT. SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTN/EVE AS HUMIDITY VALUES START
TO CLIMB.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF MIDWEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE
CLASSICAL MONSOONAL SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE DESERTS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST EACH DAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. CORRESPONDINGLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
OFF...DROPPING FROM AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT WARMING WILL RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER SOMEWHAT. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD...AND THEY SHOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     THURSDAY AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT
     THURSDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MCLANE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSH/LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE/MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB













000
FXUS65 KPSR 302031
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
130 PM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND AND
HIGHS IN THE 110-115 RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE DESERTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOON HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AZ/NM BORDER...WHICH IS
RESULTING IN A WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE HOT CONDITIONS AND AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. IN
THE PHOENIX AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE 100
DEGREE MARK AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 92 DEGREES. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD WARM MIN OF 90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN
1996. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN RUNNING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.

GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KNOCK ABOUT A
DEGREE OFF FORECAST TEMPERATURES...THOUGH HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
EXCESSIVE AND A WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LAG A BIT AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DESERTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT FOR FRIDAY /STILL GENERALLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT
CHANCES/ BUT HIGHER VALUES SEEM WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AT 700-500MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND
20KTS...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND
8-10 G/KG. IF THOSE VALUES ACTUALLY COME TO PASS IT COULD END UP
BEING QUITE ACTIVE SATURDAY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY HOWEVER ITS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO GET BACK TO BACK ACTIVE
DAYS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR SUNDAY.

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD TO NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...ADVECTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN DECREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ONLY FEW/SCT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN REMOVED FROM
TERMINAL SITES. LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS...AND MUCH LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL
CHANGES MAY BE DELAYED OR ABSENT. EVEN PROLONGED PERIODS OF VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KT.
SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTN/EVE AS HUMIDITY
VALUES START TO CLIMB.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF MIDWEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE
CLASSICAL MONSOONAL SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE DESERTS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST EACH DAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. CORRESPONDINGLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
OFF...DROPPING FROM AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT WARMING WILL RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER SOMEWHAT. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD...AND THEY SHOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     THURSDAY AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT
     THURSDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB










000
FXUS65 KPSR 301612
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
910 AM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND AND
HIGHS IN THE 110-115 RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE DESERTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOON HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AZ/NM BORDER...WHICH IS
RESULTING IN A WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE HOT CONDITIONS AND AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. IN
THE PHOENIX AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE 100
DEGREE MARK AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 92 DEGREES. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD WARM MIN OF 90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN
1996. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES REALLY OVERACHIEVED ON TUESDAY WITH MOST DESERT LOCALES
BREAKING THE 110 DEGREE MARK. LOOKING BACK AT THE 00Z SREF AND ECMWF
ANALYSIS AND COMPARING 850MB TEMPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD ACTUALLY MANAGE ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES
OF WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING AT
110 DEGREES...BUT BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY IM GOING TO LEAN
ON THE WARM SIDE AND BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. INEVITABLY
OUR LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SO WELL
ALREADY BE STARTING OFF WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA. WITH WINDS
ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THAT CIRRUS WILL BE DEFLECTED INTO NEW MEXICO WITH SUNNY
SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE DESERTS. AS SUCH...IM GOING TO GO WITH
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. EVEN WITH SOME
DEGREE OF COOLING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTH...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN DANGEROUSLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WILL RUN UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.

MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LAG A BIT AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DESERTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT FOR FRIDAY /STILL GENERALLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT
CHANCES/ BUT HIGHER VALUES SEEM WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AT 700-500MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND
20KTS...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND
8-10 G/KG. IF THOSE VALUES ACTUALLY COME TO PASS IT COULD END UP
BEING QUITE ACTIVE SATURDAY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY HOWEVER ITS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO GET BACK TO BACK ACTIVE
DAYS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR SUNDAY.

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD TO NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...ADVECTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN DECREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ONLY FEW/SCT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN REMOVED FROM
TERMINAL SITES. LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS...AND MUCH LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL
CHANGES MAY BE DELAYED OR ABSENT. EVEN PROLONGED PERIODS OF VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KT.
SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTN/EVE AS HUMIDITY
VALUES START TO CLIMB.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF MIDWEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE
CLASSICAL MONSOONAL SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE DESERTS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST EACH DAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. CORRESPONDINGLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
OFF...DROPPING FROM AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT WARMING WILL RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER SOMEWHAT. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD...AND THEY SHOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     THURSDAY AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT
     THURSDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 301612
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
910 AM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND AND
HIGHS IN THE 110-115 RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE DESERTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOON HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AZ/NM BORDER...WHICH IS
RESULTING IN A WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE HOT CONDITIONS AND AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. IN
THE PHOENIX AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE 100
DEGREE MARK AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 92 DEGREES. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD WARM MIN OF 90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN
1996. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES REALLY OVERACHIEVED ON TUESDAY WITH MOST DESERT LOCALES
BREAKING THE 110 DEGREE MARK. LOOKING BACK AT THE 00Z SREF AND ECMWF
ANALYSIS AND COMPARING 850MB TEMPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD ACTUALLY MANAGE ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES
OF WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING AT
110 DEGREES...BUT BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY IM GOING TO LEAN
ON THE WARM SIDE AND BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. INEVITABLY
OUR LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SO WELL
ALREADY BE STARTING OFF WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA. WITH WINDS
ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THAT CIRRUS WILL BE DEFLECTED INTO NEW MEXICO WITH SUNNY
SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE DESERTS. AS SUCH...IM GOING TO GO WITH
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. EVEN WITH SOME
DEGREE OF COOLING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTH...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN DANGEROUSLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WILL RUN UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.

MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LAG A BIT AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DESERTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT FOR FRIDAY /STILL GENERALLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT
CHANCES/ BUT HIGHER VALUES SEEM WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AT 700-500MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND
20KTS...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND
8-10 G/KG. IF THOSE VALUES ACTUALLY COME TO PASS IT COULD END UP
BEING QUITE ACTIVE SATURDAY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY HOWEVER ITS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO GET BACK TO BACK ACTIVE
DAYS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR SUNDAY.

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD TO NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...ADVECTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN DECREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ONLY FEW/SCT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN REMOVED FROM
TERMINAL SITES. LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS...AND MUCH LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL
CHANGES MAY BE DELAYED OR ABSENT. EVEN PROLONGED PERIODS OF VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KT.
SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTN/EVE AS HUMIDITY
VALUES START TO CLIMB.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF MIDWEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE
CLASSICAL MONSOONAL SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE DESERTS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST EACH DAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. CORRESPONDINGLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
OFF...DROPPING FROM AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT WARMING WILL RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER SOMEWHAT. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD...AND THEY SHOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     THURSDAY AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT
     THURSDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 301238 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
538 AM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND AND
HIGHS IN THE 110-115 RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE DESERTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY CONVECTIVELY ON TUESDAY AS THERE WERE ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. MEANWHILE TO THE
SOUTH...A WEAK COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z WERE VERY SIMILAR TO
VALUES SEEN ON TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 90S. SKY
HARBOR WAS STILL HOLDING TOUGH AT 99.

TEMPERATURES REALLY OVERACHIEVED ON TUESDAY WITH MOST DESERT LOCALES
BREAKING THE 110 DEGREE MARK. LOOKING BACK AT THE 00Z SREF AND ECMWF
ANALYSIS AND COMPARING 850MB TEMPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD ACTUALLY MANAGE ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES
OF WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING AT
110 DEGREES...BUT BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY IM GOING TO LEAN
ON THE WARM SIDE AND BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. INEVITABLY
OUR LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SO WELL
ALREADY BE STARTING OFF WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA. WITH WINDS
ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THAT CIRRUS WILL BE DEFLECTED INTO NEW MEXICO WITH SUNNY
SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE DESERTS. AS SUCH...IM GOING TO GO WITH
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. EVEN WITH SOME
DEGREE OF COOLING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTH...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN DANGEROUSLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WILL RUN UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.

MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LAG A BIT AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DESERTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT FOR FRIDAY /STILL GENERALLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT
CHANCES/ BUT HIGHER VALUES SEEM WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AT 700-500MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND
20KTS...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND
8-10 G/KG. IF THOSE VALUES ACTUALLY COME TO PASS IT COULD END UP
BEING QUITE ACTIVE SATURDAY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY HOWEVER ITS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO GET BACK TO BACK ACTIVE
DAYS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR SUNDAY.

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD TO NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...ADVECTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN DECREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ONLY FEW/SCT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN REMOVED FROM
TERMINAL SITES. LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS...AND MUCH LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL
CHANGES MAY BE DELAYED OR ABSENT. EVEN PROLONGED PERIODS OF VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KT.
SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTN/EVE AS HUMIDITY
VALUES START TO CLIMB.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF MIDWEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE
CLASSICAL MONSOONAL SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE DESERTS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST EACH DAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. CORRESPONDINGLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
OFF...DROPPING FROM AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT WARMING WILL RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER SOMEWHAT. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD...AND THEY SHOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     THURSDAY AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT
     THURSDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB










000
FXUS65 KPSR 301238 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
538 AM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND AND
HIGHS IN THE 110-115 RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE DESERTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY CONVECTIVELY ON TUESDAY AS THERE WERE ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. MEANWHILE TO THE
SOUTH...A WEAK COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z WERE VERY SIMILAR TO
VALUES SEEN ON TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 90S. SKY
HARBOR WAS STILL HOLDING TOUGH AT 99.

TEMPERATURES REALLY OVERACHIEVED ON TUESDAY WITH MOST DESERT LOCALES
BREAKING THE 110 DEGREE MARK. LOOKING BACK AT THE 00Z SREF AND ECMWF
ANALYSIS AND COMPARING 850MB TEMPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD ACTUALLY MANAGE ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES
OF WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING AT
110 DEGREES...BUT BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY IM GOING TO LEAN
ON THE WARM SIDE AND BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. INEVITABLY
OUR LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SO WELL
ALREADY BE STARTING OFF WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA. WITH WINDS
ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THAT CIRRUS WILL BE DEFLECTED INTO NEW MEXICO WITH SUNNY
SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE DESERTS. AS SUCH...IM GOING TO GO WITH
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. EVEN WITH SOME
DEGREE OF COOLING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTH...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN DANGEROUSLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WILL RUN UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.

MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LAG A BIT AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DESERTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT FOR FRIDAY /STILL GENERALLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT
CHANCES/ BUT HIGHER VALUES SEEM WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AT 700-500MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND
20KTS...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND
8-10 G/KG. IF THOSE VALUES ACTUALLY COME TO PASS IT COULD END UP
BEING QUITE ACTIVE SATURDAY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY HOWEVER ITS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO GET BACK TO BACK ACTIVE
DAYS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR SUNDAY.

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD TO NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...ADVECTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN DECREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ONLY FEW/SCT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN REMOVED FROM
TERMINAL SITES. LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS...AND MUCH LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL
CHANGES MAY BE DELAYED OR ABSENT. EVEN PROLONGED PERIODS OF VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KT.
SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTN/EVE AS HUMIDITY
VALUES START TO CLIMB.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF MIDWEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE
CLASSICAL MONSOONAL SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE DESERTS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST EACH DAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. CORRESPONDINGLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
OFF...DROPPING FROM AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT WARMING WILL RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER SOMEWHAT. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD...AND THEY SHOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     THURSDAY AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT
     THURSDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB









000
FXUS65 KPSR 300907
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
206 AM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND AND
HIGHS IN THE 110-115 RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE DESERTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY CONVECTIVELY ON TUESDAY AS THERE WERE ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. MEANWHILE TO THE
SOUTH...A WEAK COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z WERE VERY SIMILAR TO
VALUES SEEN ON TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 90S. SKY
HARBOR WAS STILL HOLDING TOUGH AT 99.

TEMPERATURES REALLY OVERACHIEVED ON TUESDAY WITH MOST DESERT LOCALES
BREAKING THE 110 DEGREE MARK. LOOKING BACK AT THE 00Z SREF AND ECMWF
ANALYSIS AND COMPARING 850MB TEMPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD ACTUALLY MANAGE ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES
OF WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING AT
110 DEGREES...BUT BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY IM GOING TO LEAN
ON THE WARM SIDE AND BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. INEVITABLY
OUR LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SO WELL
ALREADY BE STARTING OFF WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA. WITH WINDS
ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THAT CIRRUS WILL BE DEFLECTED INTO NEW MEXICO WITH SUNNY
SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE DESERTS. AS SUCH...IM GOING TO GO WITH
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. EVEN WITH SOME
DEGREE OF COOLING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTH...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN DANGEROUSLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WILL RUN UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.

MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LAG A BIT AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DESERTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT FOR FRIDAY /STILL GENERALLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT
CHANCES/ BUT HIGHER VALUES SEEM WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AT 700-500MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND
20KTS...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND
8-10 G/KG. IF THOSE VALUES ACTUALLY COME TO PASS IT COULD END UP
BEING QUITE ACTIVE SATURDAY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY HOWEVER ITS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO GET BACK TO BACK ACTIVE
DAYS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR SUNDAY.

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD TO NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...ADVECTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN DECREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONLY FEW/SCT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN REMOVED FROM
TERMINAL SITES. LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS...AND MUCH LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL
CHANGES MAY BE DELAYED OR ABSENT. EVEN PROLONGED PERIODS OF VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     THURSDAY AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT
     THURSDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 300343
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT RANGING FROM 112 TO 115 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS ON
WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THE CENTER OF
THE SUBTROPICAL 594DM ANTI-CYCLONE HAS SHIFTED INTO SERN ARIZONA
WITH VERTICAL MOTIONS SUPPORTIVE FOR DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE
PERIMETER OF THE CIRCULATION THROUGH NRN MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. 00Z SOUNDING DATA INDICATED PREVAILING LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT PWATS BELOW 1.25 INCHES WHILE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING RATIOS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 9 G/KG...ESSENTIALLY
PROHIBITING FREE CONVECTION. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO
FORECAST GRIDS...AS PREVAILING CONDITIONS WERE ALREADY WELL
CAPTURED. BIGGEST WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BEFORE MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/230 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014/
THERE IS A CHANGE TO SOME OF THE FORECAST THINKING THIS HOUR AS IT
PERTAINS TO TEMPERATURES. IN SHORT...WITH THE DRIER NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND SITTING ALMOST RIGHT UNDER A 594DM HIGH FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AGGRAVATING THE WARMTH WAS THE VERY WARM START
TO THE MORNING/DAY...WITH 92 DEGREES OBSERVED AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR
AIRPORT...WHICH WILL SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE DAY IF TEMPS
DONT COOL OFF BELOW THAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FOR WHAT IS SHOWN IN
THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE THE ECMWF...THE FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY IS NOW FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS
FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA AT 111 AND 113 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE
ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO DISCUSS THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES THIS SHIFT TO ALERT EVERYONE TO THIS HAZARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE STILL ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...BACK INTO THE 107-110 DEGREE RANGE FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES/LOWER AZ DESERTS... POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPING BACK INTO THE STATE. TEMPS OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...RANGING 110-113 DEGREES MOST SITES. OTHER THAN THIS IMPORTANT
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION CONCERNING
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL
APPLIES.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 700-300MB
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STORM TRIGGERS NOTED FROM ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR ENSEMBLES THROUGH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE NIL.
THE DESERTS WILL STAY DRY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/ZONE 24...WELL EAST
AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.

THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG
PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE FINER
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM
MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OR A
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONLY FEW/SCT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN REMOVED FROM
TERMINAL SITES. LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS...AND MUCH LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL
CHANGES MAY BE DELAYED OR ABSENT. EVEN PROLONGED PERIODS OF VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 300343
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT RANGING FROM 112 TO 115 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS ON
WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THE CENTER OF
THE SUBTROPICAL 594DM ANTI-CYCLONE HAS SHIFTED INTO SERN ARIZONA
WITH VERTICAL MOTIONS SUPPORTIVE FOR DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE
PERIMETER OF THE CIRCULATION THROUGH NRN MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. 00Z SOUNDING DATA INDICATED PREVAILING LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT PWATS BELOW 1.25 INCHES WHILE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING RATIOS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 9 G/KG...ESSENTIALLY
PROHIBITING FREE CONVECTION. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO
FORECAST GRIDS...AS PREVAILING CONDITIONS WERE ALREADY WELL
CAPTURED. BIGGEST WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BEFORE MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/230 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014/
THERE IS A CHANGE TO SOME OF THE FORECAST THINKING THIS HOUR AS IT
PERTAINS TO TEMPERATURES. IN SHORT...WITH THE DRIER NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND SITTING ALMOST RIGHT UNDER A 594DM HIGH FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AGGRAVATING THE WARMTH WAS THE VERY WARM START
TO THE MORNING/DAY...WITH 92 DEGREES OBSERVED AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR
AIRPORT...WHICH WILL SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE DAY IF TEMPS
DONT COOL OFF BELOW THAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FOR WHAT IS SHOWN IN
THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE THE ECMWF...THE FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY IS NOW FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS
FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA AT 111 AND 113 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE
ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO DISCUSS THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES THIS SHIFT TO ALERT EVERYONE TO THIS HAZARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE STILL ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...BACK INTO THE 107-110 DEGREE RANGE FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES/LOWER AZ DESERTS... POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPING BACK INTO THE STATE. TEMPS OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...RANGING 110-113 DEGREES MOST SITES. OTHER THAN THIS IMPORTANT
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION CONCERNING
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL
APPLIES.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 700-300MB
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STORM TRIGGERS NOTED FROM ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR ENSEMBLES THROUGH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE NIL.
THE DESERTS WILL STAY DRY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/ZONE 24...WELL EAST
AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.

THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG
PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE FINER
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM
MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OR A
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONLY FEW/SCT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN REMOVED FROM
TERMINAL SITES. LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS...AND MUCH LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL
CHANGES MAY BE DELAYED OR ABSENT. EVEN PROLONGED PERIODS OF VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 292126 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT RANGING FROM 112 TO 115 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS ON
WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A CHANGE TO SOME OF THE FORECAST THINKING THIS HOUR AS IT
PERTAINS TO TEMPERATURES. IN SHORT...WITH THE DRIER NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND SITTING ALMOST RIGHT UNDER A 594DM HIGH FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH 106 DEGREES AT
PHOENIX AND 107 AT YUMA. AGGRAVATING THE WARMTH WAS THE VERY WARM
START TO THE MORNING/DAY...WITH 92 DEGREES OBSERVED AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR AIRPORT...WHICH WILL SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE DAY IF
TEMPS DONT COOL OFF BELOW THAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FOR WHAT IS SHOWN IN
THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE THE ECMWF...THE FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY IS NOW FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS
FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA AT 111 AND 113 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE
ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO DISCUSS THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES THIS SHIFT TO ALERT EVERYONE TO THIS HAZARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE STILL ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...BACK INTO THE 107-110 DEGREE RANGE FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES/LOWER AZ DESERTS... POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPING BACK INTO THE STATE. TEMPS OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...RANGING 110-113 DEGREES MOST SITES. OTHER THAN THIS IMPORTANT
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION CONCERNING
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL
APPLIES.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 700-300MB
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STORM TRIGGERS NOTED FROM ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR ENSEMBLES THROUGH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE NIL.
THE DESERTS WILL STAY DRY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/ZONE 24...WELL EAST
AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.

THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG
PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE FINER
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM
MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OR A
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

WINDS FOR KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...HAVE TURNED A BIT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST 10 TO 15 KTS BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN AFTER 00Z.
ONLY MINIMAL SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...WATERS/AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 292126 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT RANGING FROM 112 TO 115 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS ON
WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A CHANGE TO SOME OF THE FORECAST THINKING THIS HOUR AS IT
PERTAINS TO TEMPERATURES. IN SHORT...WITH THE DRIER NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND SITTING ALMOST RIGHT UNDER A 594DM HIGH FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH 106 DEGREES AT
PHOENIX AND 107 AT YUMA. AGGRAVATING THE WARMTH WAS THE VERY WARM
START TO THE MORNING/DAY...WITH 92 DEGREES OBSERVED AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR AIRPORT...WHICH WILL SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE DAY IF
TEMPS DONT COOL OFF BELOW THAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FOR WHAT IS SHOWN IN
THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE THE ECMWF...THE FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY IS NOW FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS
FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA AT 111 AND 113 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE
ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO DISCUSS THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES THIS SHIFT TO ALERT EVERYONE TO THIS HAZARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE STILL ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...BACK INTO THE 107-110 DEGREE RANGE FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES/LOWER AZ DESERTS... POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPING BACK INTO THE STATE. TEMPS OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...RANGING 110-113 DEGREES MOST SITES. OTHER THAN THIS IMPORTANT
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION CONCERNING
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL
APPLIES.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 700-300MB
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STORM TRIGGERS NOTED FROM ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR ENSEMBLES THROUGH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE NIL.
THE DESERTS WILL STAY DRY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/ZONE 24...WELL EAST
AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.

THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG
PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE FINER
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM
MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OR A
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

WINDS FOR KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...HAVE TURNED A BIT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST 10 TO 15 KTS BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN AFTER 00Z.
ONLY MINIMAL SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...WATERS/AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ










000
FXUS65 KPSR 292055
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
153 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT RANGING FROM 112 TO 115 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS ON
WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A CHANGE TO SOME OF THE FORECAST THINKING THIS HOUR AS IT
PERTAINS TO TEMPERATURES. IN SHORT...WITH THE DRIER NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND SITTING ALMOST RIGHT UNDER A 594DM HIGH FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH 106 DEGREES AT
PHOENIX AND 107 AT YUMA. AGGRAVATING THE WARMTH WAS THE VERY WARM
START TO THE MORNING/DAY...WITH 92 DEGREES OBSERVED AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR AIRPORT...WHICH WILL SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE DAY IF
TEMPS DONT COOL OFF BELOW THAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FOR WHAT IS SHOWN IN
THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE THE ECMWF...THE FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY IS NOW FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS
FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA AT 111 AND 113 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE
ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO DISCUSS THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES THIS SHIFT TO ALERT EVERYONE TO THIS HAZARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE STILL ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...BACK INTO THE 107-110 DEGREE RANGE FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES/LOWER AZ DESERTS... POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPING BACK INTO THE STATE. TEMPS OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...RANGING 110-113 DEGREES MOST SITES. OTHER THAN THIS IMPORTANT
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION CONCERNING
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL
APPLIES.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 700-300MB
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STORM TRIGGERS NOTED FROM ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR ENSEMBLES THROUGH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE NIL.
THE DESERTS WILL STAY DRY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/ZONE 24...WELL EAST
AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.

THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG
PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE FINER
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM
MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OR A
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WELL AWAY FROM PHOENIX AREA TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 291651
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON
REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR MONSOON WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 700-300MB FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STORM TRIGGERS NOTED FROM ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR ENSEMBLES THROUGH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE NIL.
WILL KEEP THE DESERTS DRY...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS --AT BEST--
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL EAST AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.

THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THINGS GET
CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE DISTANT
STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL
CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WELL AWAY FROM PHOENIX AREA TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 291651
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON
REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR MONSOON WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 700-300MB FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STORM TRIGGERS NOTED FROM ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR ENSEMBLES THROUGH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE NIL.
WILL KEEP THE DESERTS DRY...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS --AT BEST--
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL EAST AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.

THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THINGS GET
CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE DISTANT
STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL
CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WELL AWAY FROM PHOENIX AREA TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 291143 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONVECTION WAS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA WAS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. THUS...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 0745Z.

THE FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AND DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS HAS COMMENCED. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE TRIGGERS SEEN IN THE
UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NONE FORECAST FROM ANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS OR ENSEMBLES...I WILL RETAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT KEEP THE DESERTS DRY TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND DISORGANIZED. MUCH OF THE SAME
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 700MB-300MB.

BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS TRY AND SUGGEST A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND NOT ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE
DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD.
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT
HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW
RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR
NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WELL AWAY FROM PHOENIX AREA TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 291143 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONVECTION WAS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA WAS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. THUS...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 0745Z.

THE FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AND DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS HAS COMMENCED. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE TRIGGERS SEEN IN THE
UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NONE FORECAST FROM ANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS OR ENSEMBLES...I WILL RETAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT KEEP THE DESERTS DRY TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND DISORGANIZED. MUCH OF THE SAME
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 700MB-300MB.

BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS TRY AND SUGGEST A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND NOT ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE
DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD.
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT
HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW
RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR
NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WELL AWAY FROM PHOENIX AREA TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 290755
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1255 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONVECTION WAS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA WAS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. THUS...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 0745Z.

THE FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AND DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS HAS COMMENCED. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE TRIGGERS SEEN IN THE
UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NONE FORECAST FROM ANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS OR ENSEMBLES...I WILL RETAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT KEEP THE DESERTS DRY TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND DISORGANIZED. MUCH OF THE SAME
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 700MB-300MB.

BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS TRY AND SUGGEST A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND NOT ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE
DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD.
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT
HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW
RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR
NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SURROUNDING CNTRL ARIZONA...DIRECT IMPACTS ON TERMINALS ARE
UNLIKELY. NO OTHER STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SRN OR ERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW/SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL BEYOND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 290755
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1255 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONVECTION WAS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA WAS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. THUS...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 0745Z.

THE FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AND DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS HAS COMMENCED. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE TRIGGERS SEEN IN THE
UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NONE FORECAST FROM ANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS OR ENSEMBLES...I WILL RETAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT KEEP THE DESERTS DRY TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND DISORGANIZED. MUCH OF THE SAME
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 700MB-300MB.

BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS TRY AND SUGGEST A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND NOT ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE
DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD.
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT
HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW
RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR
NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SURROUNDING CNTRL ARIZONA...DIRECT IMPACTS ON TERMINALS ARE
UNLIKELY. NO OTHER STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SRN OR ERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW/SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL BEYOND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 290301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED STORM CHANCES AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES. BETTER
STORM CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHRA/TS PERCOLATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN PINAL COUNTY...ACTIVITY IS VIRTUALLY ABSENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A LARGER CIRCULATION CENTER PROPAGATING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA HAS BROUGHT A COMBINATION OF DEEPER
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUARTER OF ARIZONA. 00Z KTWC AND KPSR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING RATIOS STILL LINGERING IN THE 9-11 G/KG RANGE WHILE
TOTAL COLUMN PWATS SIT BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES. HOWEVER...A
NOTABLE SHIFT IN H7-H5 WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND
INTRODUCTION OF LESS FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PORTEND LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MOSTLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY..WHILE ALSO MAKING SOME
MODIFICATIONS OF HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/225 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014/

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SURROUNDING CNTRL ARIZONA...DIRECT IMPACTS ON TERMINALS ARE
UNLIKELY. NO OTHER STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SRN OR ERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW/SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL BEYOND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 290301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED STORM CHANCES AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES. BETTER
STORM CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHRA/TS PERCOLATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN PINAL COUNTY...ACTIVITY IS VIRTUALLY ABSENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A LARGER CIRCULATION CENTER PROPAGATING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA HAS BROUGHT A COMBINATION OF DEEPER
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUARTER OF ARIZONA. 00Z KTWC AND KPSR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING RATIOS STILL LINGERING IN THE 9-11 G/KG RANGE WHILE
TOTAL COLUMN PWATS SIT BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES. HOWEVER...A
NOTABLE SHIFT IN H7-H5 WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND
INTRODUCTION OF LESS FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PORTEND LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MOSTLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY..WHILE ALSO MAKING SOME
MODIFICATIONS OF HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/225 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014/

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SURROUNDING CNTRL ARIZONA...DIRECT IMPACTS ON TERMINALS ARE
UNLIKELY. NO OTHER STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SRN OR ERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW/SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL BEYOND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 282125
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
DISTANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KIPL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAJA SPINE PROPAGATES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND DIURNAL AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ










000
FXUS65 KPSR 282125
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
DISTANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KIPL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAJA SPINE PROPAGATES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND DIURNAL AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 282124
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
DISTANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KIPL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAJA SPINE PROPAGATES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND DIURNAL AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 282124
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
DISTANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KIPL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAJA SPINE PROPAGATES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND DIURNAL AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 282012
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 282012
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 281708
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1005 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATE AN MCV
SPINNING OVER EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND A LARGER MORE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION PROGRESSIVELY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETWEEN THE TWO...A COL REGION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. 12Z KPSR
RAOB SHOWS THE LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COL
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AROUND 1.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER NOTED IN THE KTWC/KPSR SOUNDINGS...AND WITH BOTH CIRCULATIONS
PRESENT TO HELP WITH INITIATING CONVECTION...THERE ARE STILL GROUND
TO HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MANY AREAS OF OUR
CWA TODAY. MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM
POPS...ALBEIT REFLECTING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS AND
BETTER CHANCE POPS FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN OF JTNP AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE LIGHTER WIND FIELDS WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY TYPE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT ANY
STORM THAT FORMS STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH OUT STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS PROG THESE TWO CIRCULATIONS TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/PEAK HEATING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...NUDGED POPS
DOWNWARD FOR THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY...AND DRIER...LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 281708
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1005 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATE AN MCV
SPINNING OVER EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND A LARGER MORE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION PROGRESSIVELY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETWEEN THE TWO...A COL REGION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. 12Z KPSR
RAOB SHOWS THE LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COL
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AROUND 1.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER NOTED IN THE KTWC/KPSR SOUNDINGS...AND WITH BOTH CIRCULATIONS
PRESENT TO HELP WITH INITIATING CONVECTION...THERE ARE STILL GROUND
TO HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MANY AREAS OF OUR
CWA TODAY. MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM
POPS...ALBEIT REFLECTING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS AND
BETTER CHANCE POPS FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN OF JTNP AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE LIGHTER WIND FIELDS WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY TYPE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT ANY
STORM THAT FORMS STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH OUT STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS PROG THESE TWO CIRCULATIONS TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/PEAK HEATING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...NUDGED POPS
DOWNWARD FOR THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY...AND DRIER...LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 281225 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
525 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF AN MCV OVER GILA COUNTY WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO REVEAL A LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY STILL SOME ENERGY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM AND DISSIPATE
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS OF 08Z...HOWEVER GIVEN HOW SHORT LIVED
THESE STORMS ARE /INDICATING WEAK MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA/...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LIKE WE SAW EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON...ITS ANOTHER COMPLICATED SETUP FOR
TODAY AS THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TO SERVE AS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST MITIGATING FACTOR IS
THAT BOTH CIRCULATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY EARLY
IN THE DAY...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ALSO...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT /10KTS OR LESS/ FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD
WHICH IS CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM YUMA WESTWARD TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE OUR WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL BAJA CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD.
ONE FACTOR THAT COULD FAVOR STORMS ACROSS PHOENIX TODAY...THE
REMNANT CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY SPAWN
AN MCV LATER THIS MORNING WHICH COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CLIMO POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN 3 POSSIBLE TRIGGERS IN THE
AREA...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD IT BEING A DOWN DAY ACROSS THE PHOENIX
AREA GIVEN WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA AND RE-ORIENT MOST OF IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX. MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO
HIGH. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WONT BE
TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER UNTIL
WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR READINGS AS SUNDAY
GIVEN A CLOUDY START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA MID
WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS
THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL
ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID WEEK VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 281225 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
525 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF AN MCV OVER GILA COUNTY WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO REVEAL A LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY STILL SOME ENERGY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM AND DISSIPATE
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS OF 08Z...HOWEVER GIVEN HOW SHORT LIVED
THESE STORMS ARE /INDICATING WEAK MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA/...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LIKE WE SAW EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON...ITS ANOTHER COMPLICATED SETUP FOR
TODAY AS THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TO SERVE AS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST MITIGATING FACTOR IS
THAT BOTH CIRCULATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY EARLY
IN THE DAY...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ALSO...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT /10KTS OR LESS/ FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD
WHICH IS CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM YUMA WESTWARD TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE OUR WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL BAJA CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD.
ONE FACTOR THAT COULD FAVOR STORMS ACROSS PHOENIX TODAY...THE
REMNANT CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY SPAWN
AN MCV LATER THIS MORNING WHICH COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CLIMO POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN 3 POSSIBLE TRIGGERS IN THE
AREA...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD IT BEING A DOWN DAY ACROSS THE PHOENIX
AREA GIVEN WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA AND RE-ORIENT MOST OF IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX. MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO
HIGH. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WONT BE
TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER UNTIL
WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR READINGS AS SUNDAY
GIVEN A CLOUDY START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA MID
WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS
THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL
ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID WEEK VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ








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