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000
FXUS65 KPUB 270532
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MINOR CHANGES TO EARLY EVENING POPS...MAINLY ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
DISTINCT CIRCULATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF ABQ AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADARS INDICATING CLOUD TOP COOLING AND WIDESPREAD
ECHOES FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS
VALLEY AND CENTRAL MTS. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE
THIS MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH
A SPOTTER JUST NORTHWEST OF CANON CITY REPORTING 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN
THUS FAR. WALDO CANYON RAIN GAGE HAS REPORTED 1.2 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE THIS MORNING...THOUGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ATTM. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY HIGH AOB 10K FEET THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SFC OBS
AND WEBCAMS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET AND
STARTING TO STICK TO GRASSY AREAS...THOUGH ROADWAYS STILL LOOKING
WET.

LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING THE BEST UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE IS SOME CONCERN FOR MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH TRAINING STORMS AND ANOTHER
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH SNOW ALREADY
FALLING IN TELLER COUNTY...BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT FOR THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR WILL BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AROUND 6K FEET THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GENERALLY
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT WINTER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORY PRODUCTS STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRITSO AND WET MOUNTAINS AND
FOR PIKES PEAK...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 2 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 9 INCHES
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
FREMONT COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS....WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEYS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AN EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH ROADS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WET.

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
HEAVY AND WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WITH H7
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
FOR A PATCHY FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST WARM ENOUGH...AND
START OF THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON DOESN`T TECHNICALLY BEGIN
UNTIL MAY 1ST. BUT THOSE WITH TENDER VEGETATION OUTSIDE MAY WANT
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MON NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. NOSES OVER CO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY CUTS DOWN THE
RIDGE AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS SENDS A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH IT.  AGAIN...MAINLY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.  FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PUSH OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AT THIS
POINT. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB MON
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. KALS SHOULD
GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE VCNTY LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058>061-063-
066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ072>075-079-
080-082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076-078-081-
087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 270532
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MINOR CHANGES TO EARLY EVENING POPS...MAINLY ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
DISTINCT CIRCULATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF ABQ AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADARS INDICATING CLOUD TOP COOLING AND WIDESPREAD
ECHOES FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS
VALLEY AND CENTRAL MTS. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE
THIS MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH
A SPOTTER JUST NORTHWEST OF CANON CITY REPORTING 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN
THUS FAR. WALDO CANYON RAIN GAGE HAS REPORTED 1.2 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE THIS MORNING...THOUGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ATTM. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY HIGH AOB 10K FEET THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SFC OBS
AND WEBCAMS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET AND
STARTING TO STICK TO GRASSY AREAS...THOUGH ROADWAYS STILL LOOKING
WET.

LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING THE BEST UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE IS SOME CONCERN FOR MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH TRAINING STORMS AND ANOTHER
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH SNOW ALREADY
FALLING IN TELLER COUNTY...BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT FOR THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR WILL BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AROUND 6K FEET THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GENERALLY
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT WINTER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORY PRODUCTS STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRITSO AND WET MOUNTAINS AND
FOR PIKES PEAK...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 2 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 9 INCHES
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
FREMONT COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS....WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEYS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AN EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH ROADS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WET.

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
HEAVY AND WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WITH H7
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
FOR A PATCHY FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST WARM ENOUGH...AND
START OF THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON DOESN`T TECHNICALLY BEGIN
UNTIL MAY 1ST. BUT THOSE WITH TENDER VEGETATION OUTSIDE MAY WANT
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MON NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. NOSES OVER CO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY CUTS DOWN THE
RIDGE AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS SENDS A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH IT.  AGAIN...MAINLY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.  FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PUSH OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AT THIS
POINT. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB MON
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. KALS SHOULD
GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE VCNTY LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058>061-063-
066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ072>075-079-
080-082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076-078-081-
087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 270029
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
629 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MINOR CHANGES TO EARLY EVENING POPS...MAINLY ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
DISTINCT CIRCULATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF ABQ AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADARS INDICATING CLOUD TOP COOLING AND WIDESPREAD
ECHOES FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS
VALLEY AND CENTRAL MTS. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE
THIS MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH
A SPOTTER JUST NORTHWEST OF CANON CITY REPORTING 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN
THUS FAR. WALDO CANYON RAIN GAGE HAS REPORTED 1.2 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE THIS MORNING...THOUGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ATTM. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY HIGH AOB 10K FEET THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SFC OBS
AND WEBCAMS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET AND
STARTING TO STICK TO GRASSY AREAS...THOUGH ROADWAYS STILL LOOKING
WET.

LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING THE BEST UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE IS SOME CONCERN FOR MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH TRAINING STORMS AND ANOTHER
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH SNOW ALREADY
FALLING IN TELLER COUNTY...BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT FOR THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR WILL BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AROUND 6K FEET THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GENERALLY
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT WINTER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORY PRODUCTS STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRITSO AND WET MOUNTAINS AND
FOR PIKES PEAK...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 2 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 9 INCHES
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
FREMONT COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS....WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEYS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AN EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH ROADS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WET.

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
HEAVY AND WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WITH H7
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
FOR A PATCHY FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST WARM ENOUGH...AND
START OF THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON DOESN`T TECHNICALLY BEGIN
UNTIL MAY 1ST. BUT THOSE WITH TENDER VEGETATION OUTSIDE MAY WANT
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MON NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. NOSES OVER CO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY CUTS DOWN THE
RIDGE AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS SENDS A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH IT.  AGAIN...MAINLY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.  FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PUSH OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AT THIS
POINT. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE KPUB AND
KCOS TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SHOULD SEE AN
IMPROVING TREND TOWARDS MORNING.  EAST WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS.  PRECIPITATION WILL STAY ALL RAIN AT KCOS
AND KPUB. CHANCES FOR VCTS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR BOTH TERMINALS...BUT
IFR VIS UNDER THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR THEN VFR CATEGORIES MONDAY MORNING.

KALS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.  CIGS/VIS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES
UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW TOWARDS MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE COMING TO AN
END AROUND THAT TIME...SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MTN OBSCURATIONS IN HEAVY SNOW
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN IMPROVING TREND CAN BE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058>061-063-
066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ072>075-079-
080-082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076-078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 270029
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
629 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MINOR CHANGES TO EARLY EVENING POPS...MAINLY ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
DISTINCT CIRCULATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF ABQ AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADARS INDICATING CLOUD TOP COOLING AND WIDESPREAD
ECHOES FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS
VALLEY AND CENTRAL MTS. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE
THIS MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH
A SPOTTER JUST NORTHWEST OF CANON CITY REPORTING 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN
THUS FAR. WALDO CANYON RAIN GAGE HAS REPORTED 1.2 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE THIS MORNING...THOUGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ATTM. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY HIGH AOB 10K FEET THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SFC OBS
AND WEBCAMS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET AND
STARTING TO STICK TO GRASSY AREAS...THOUGH ROADWAYS STILL LOOKING
WET.

LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING THE BEST UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE IS SOME CONCERN FOR MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH TRAINING STORMS AND ANOTHER
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH SNOW ALREADY
FALLING IN TELLER COUNTY...BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT FOR THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR WILL BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AROUND 6K FEET THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GENERALLY
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT WINTER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORY PRODUCTS STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRITSO AND WET MOUNTAINS AND
FOR PIKES PEAK...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 2 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 9 INCHES
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
FREMONT COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS....WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEYS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AN EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH ROADS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WET.

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
HEAVY AND WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WITH H7
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
FOR A PATCHY FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST WARM ENOUGH...AND
START OF THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON DOESN`T TECHNICALLY BEGIN
UNTIL MAY 1ST. BUT THOSE WITH TENDER VEGETATION OUTSIDE MAY WANT
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MON NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. NOSES OVER CO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY CUTS DOWN THE
RIDGE AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS SENDS A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH IT.  AGAIN...MAINLY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.  FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PUSH OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AT THIS
POINT. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE KPUB AND
KCOS TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SHOULD SEE AN
IMPROVING TREND TOWARDS MORNING.  EAST WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS.  PRECIPITATION WILL STAY ALL RAIN AT KCOS
AND KPUB. CHANCES FOR VCTS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR BOTH TERMINALS...BUT
IFR VIS UNDER THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR THEN VFR CATEGORIES MONDAY MORNING.

KALS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.  CIGS/VIS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES
UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW TOWARDS MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE COMING TO AN
END AROUND THAT TIME...SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MTN OBSCURATIONS IN HEAVY SNOW
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN IMPROVING TREND CAN BE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058>061-063-
066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ072>075-079-
080-082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076-078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 262143
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
343 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
DISTINCT CIRCULATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF ABQ AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADARS INDICATING CLOUD TOP COOLING AND WIDESPREAD
ECHOES FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS
VALLEY AND CENTRAL MTS. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE
THIS MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH
A SPOTTER JUST NORTHWEST OF CANON CITY REPORTING 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN
THUS FAR. WALDO CANYON RAIN GAGE HAS REPORTED 1.2 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE THIS MORNING...THOUGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ATTM. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY HIGH AOB 10K FEET THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SFC OBS
AND WEBCAMS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET AND
STARTING TO STICK TO GRASSY AREAS...THOUGH ROADWAYS STILL LOOKING
WET.

LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING THE BEST UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE IS SOME CONCERN FOR MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH TRAINING STORMS AND ANOTHER
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH SNOW ALREADY
FALLING IN TELLER COUNTY...BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT FOR THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR WILL BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AROUND 6K FEET THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GENERALLY
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT WINTER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORY PRODUCTS STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRITSO AND WET MOUNTAINS AND
FOR PIKES PEAK...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 2 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 9 INCHES
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
FREMONT COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS....WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEYS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AN EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH ROADS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WET.

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
HEAVY AND WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WITH H7
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
FOR A PATCHY FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST WARM ENOUGH...AND
START OF THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON DOESN`T TECHNICALLY BEGIN
UNTIL MAY 1ST. BUT THOSE WITH TENDER VEGETATION OUTSIDE MAY WANT
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MON NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. NOSES OVER CO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY CUTS DOWN THE
RIDGE AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS SENDS A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH IT.  AGAIN...MAINLY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.  FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PUSH OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AT THIS
POINT. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE KPUB AND
KCOS TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SHOULD SEE AN
IMPROVING TREND TOWARDS MORNING.  EAST WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS.  PRECIPITATION WILL STAY ALL RAIN AT KCOS
AND KPUB. CHANCES FOR VCTS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR BOTH TERMINALS...BUT
IFR VIS UNDER THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR THEN VFR CATEGORIES MONDAY MORNING.

KALS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.  CIGS/VIS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES
UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW TOWARDS MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE COMING TO AN
END AROUND THAT TIME...SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MTN OBSCURATIONS IN HEAVY SNOW
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN IMPROVING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. -KT
&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058>061-063-
066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ078-081.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 262143
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
343 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
DISTINCT CIRCULATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF ABQ AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADARS INDICATING CLOUD TOP COOLING AND WIDESPREAD
ECHOES FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS
VALLEY AND CENTRAL MTS. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE
THIS MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH
A SPOTTER JUST NORTHWEST OF CANON CITY REPORTING 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN
THUS FAR. WALDO CANYON RAIN GAGE HAS REPORTED 1.2 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE THIS MORNING...THOUGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ATTM. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY HIGH AOB 10K FEET THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SFC OBS
AND WEBCAMS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET AND
STARTING TO STICK TO GRASSY AREAS...THOUGH ROADWAYS STILL LOOKING
WET.

LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING THE BEST UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE IS SOME CONCERN FOR MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH TRAINING STORMS AND ANOTHER
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH SNOW ALREADY
FALLING IN TELLER COUNTY...BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT FOR THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR WILL BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AROUND 6K FEET THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GENERALLY
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT WINTER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORY PRODUCTS STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRITSO AND WET MOUNTAINS AND
FOR PIKES PEAK...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 2 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 9 INCHES
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
FREMONT COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS....WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEYS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AN EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH ROADS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WET.

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
HEAVY AND WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WITH H7
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
FOR A PATCHY FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST WARM ENOUGH...AND
START OF THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON DOESN`T TECHNICALLY BEGIN
UNTIL MAY 1ST. BUT THOSE WITH TENDER VEGETATION OUTSIDE MAY WANT
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MON NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. NOSES OVER CO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY CUTS DOWN THE
RIDGE AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS SENDS A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH IT.  AGAIN...MAINLY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.  FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PUSH OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AT THIS
POINT. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE KPUB AND
KCOS TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SHOULD SEE AN
IMPROVING TREND TOWARDS MORNING.  EAST WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS.  PRECIPITATION WILL STAY ALL RAIN AT KCOS
AND KPUB. CHANCES FOR VCTS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR BOTH TERMINALS...BUT
IFR VIS UNDER THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR THEN VFR CATEGORIES MONDAY MORNING.

KALS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.  CIGS/VIS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES
UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW TOWARDS MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE COMING TO AN
END AROUND THAT TIME...SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MTN OBSCURATIONS IN HEAVY SNOW
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN IMPROVING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. -KT
&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058>061-063-
066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ078-081.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 261737
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED TO START WWY FOR ZONE 76 NOW AND ADDED ZONE 63 TO THE
WWY AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS.
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD
TOWARDS THE MTNS.

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED.
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK.

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS.
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM.
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES.

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET.

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR KCOS AND KPUB...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE A FEW WINDOWS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH KALS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR VIS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD
OBSCURATIONS WITH HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. KALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
THIS EVENT...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF WINDOWS OF IFR UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT
OF THE NORTH AT ALL 3 TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH WILL BRING IMPROVING CIGS/VIS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
063-066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261737
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED TO START WWY FOR ZONE 76 NOW AND ADDED ZONE 63 TO THE
WWY AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS.
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD
TOWARDS THE MTNS.

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED.
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK.

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS.
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM.
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES.

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET.

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR KCOS AND KPUB...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE A FEW WINDOWS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH KALS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR VIS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD
OBSCURATIONS WITH HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. KALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
THIS EVENT...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF WINDOWS OF IFR UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT
OF THE NORTH AT ALL 3 TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH WILL BRING IMPROVING CIGS/VIS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
063-066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 261737
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED TO START WWY FOR ZONE 76 NOW AND ADDED ZONE 63 TO THE
WWY AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS.
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD
TOWARDS THE MTNS.

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED.
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK.

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS.
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM.
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES.

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET.

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR KCOS AND KPUB...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE A FEW WINDOWS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH KALS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR VIS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD
OBSCURATIONS WITH HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. KALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
THIS EVENT...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF WINDOWS OF IFR UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT
OF THE NORTH AT ALL 3 TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH WILL BRING IMPROVING CIGS/VIS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
063-066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261737
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED TO START WWY FOR ZONE 76 NOW AND ADDED ZONE 63 TO THE
WWY AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS.
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD
TOWARDS THE MTNS.

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED.
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK.

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS.
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM.
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES.

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET.

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR KCOS AND KPUB...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE A FEW WINDOWS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH KALS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR VIS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD
OBSCURATIONS WITH HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. KALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
THIS EVENT...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF WINDOWS OF IFR UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT
OF THE NORTH AT ALL 3 TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH WILL BRING IMPROVING CIGS/VIS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
063-066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 261701
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1101 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED TO START WWY FOR ZONE 76 NOW AND ADDED ZONE 63 TO THE
WWY AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS.
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD
TOWARDS THE MTNS.

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED.
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK.

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS.
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM.
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES.

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET.

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT
KCOS AND KPUB DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW CIGS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY RESTRICT
VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST FOR THE
NEXT 24H. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

WE MAY SEE RESTRICTED VIS/CIGS AT KALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD THROUGH MID EVENING
AS THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP IN THE VALLEY. MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
063-066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 261701
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1101 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED TO START WWY FOR ZONE 76 NOW AND ADDED ZONE 63 TO THE
WWY AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS.
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD
TOWARDS THE MTNS.

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED.
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK.

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS.
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM.
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES.

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET.

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT
KCOS AND KPUB DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW CIGS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY RESTRICT
VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST FOR THE
NEXT 24H. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

WE MAY SEE RESTRICTED VIS/CIGS AT KALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD THROUGH MID EVENING
AS THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP IN THE VALLEY. MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
063-066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261701
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1101 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED TO START WWY FOR ZONE 76 NOW AND ADDED ZONE 63 TO THE
WWY AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS.
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD
TOWARDS THE MTNS.

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED.
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK.

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS.
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM.
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES.

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET.

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT
KCOS AND KPUB DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW CIGS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY RESTRICT
VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST FOR THE
NEXT 24H. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

WE MAY SEE RESTRICTED VIS/CIGS AT KALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD THROUGH MID EVENING
AS THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP IN THE VALLEY. MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
063-066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261701
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1101 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED TO START WWY FOR ZONE 76 NOW AND ADDED ZONE 63 TO THE
WWY AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS.
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD
TOWARDS THE MTNS.

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED.
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK.

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS.
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM.
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES.

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET.

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT
KCOS AND KPUB DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW CIGS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY RESTRICT
VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST FOR THE
NEXT 24H. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

WE MAY SEE RESTRICTED VIS/CIGS AT KALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD THROUGH MID EVENING
AS THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP IN THE VALLEY. MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
063-066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 261555
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS.
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD
TOWARDS THE MTNS.

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED.
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK.

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS.
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM.
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES.

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET.

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT
KCOS AND KPUB DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW CIGS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY RESTRICT
VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST FOR THE
NEXT 24H. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

WE MAY SEE RESTRICTED VIS/CIGS AT KALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD THROUGH MID EVENING
AS THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP IN THE VALLEY. MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ076-078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 261555
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS.
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD
TOWARDS THE MTNS.

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED.
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK.

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS.
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM.
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES.

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET.

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT
KCOS AND KPUB DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW CIGS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY RESTRICT
VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST FOR THE
NEXT 24H. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

WE MAY SEE RESTRICTED VIS/CIGS AT KALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD THROUGH MID EVENING
AS THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP IN THE VALLEY. MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ076-078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS.
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD
TOWARDS THE MTNS.

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED.
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK.

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS.
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM.
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES.

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET.

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT
KCOS AND KPUB DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW CIGS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY RESTRICT
VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST FOR THE
NEXT 24H. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

WE MAY SEE RESTRICTED VIS/CIGS AT KALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD THROUGH MID EVENING
AS THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP IN THE VALLEY. MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ076-078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ073-075-080-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA REGION...

CURRENTLY...

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM N IDAHO...SWD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO OLD MEXICO. SYSTEM WAS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS
NE ARIZ BASED ON LATEST SHORT RUN HI RES PRGS. ACROSS THE
REGION...WAA WAS FIRING OFF CONVECTION FROM JUST N OF KCOS INTO
NORTHEAST COLO. LOW CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE COLO PLAINS.
MOISTURE WAS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 50 DWPTS WERE NOTED
OVER THE FAR SE COLO PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WWD
TOWARDS THE MTNS.

TODAY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST
QPF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 AND AREAS NORTH OF THE LAS ANIMAS/BACA COUNTY
BORDERS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP AS EARLIER PROJECTED.
HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WET
MTNS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE NEARBY VALLEYS. THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJ TO THESE MTNS WILL ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE QPF
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...THE CONTDVD REGION WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW...HOWEVER VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK.

THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER NOONTIME
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ONE TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL
BE VERY WET.

THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS.
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FOCUSES THE PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. SNOWFALL VALUES ACROSS
FAR W EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY VARY
CONSIDERABLY....WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST SLOPES AND (MUCH)
LESSER AMOUNTS WEST SLOPES.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
TODAY.

A QUICK REVIEW OF HILITES...ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTDVD. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TOPS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS AND PIKES PEAK AT NOON. WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS AT 4 PM. AN ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT 4 PM.
AN ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR HUERFANO AND LOWER WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GOING TO BE
VERY TRICKY AS THE W SXNS OF THESE ZONES MAY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
WHILE EASTERN SXNS OF THESE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN. WITHOUT
SAYING...IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR THESE AREAS. THE WET MTN
VALLEY ALSO HAS AN ADVISORY STARTING AFTER 8 PM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE
WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ALONG WITH THE RATON MESA REGION TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF FOR THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES.

THE LOWEST RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY REACH 6000 FEET SOUTH OF
PUEBLO...WITH THE "SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ELEVATION" LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND ~7500 FEET.

PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING. ONE TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT HAVE
SHOWN LOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH SPREADS
FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...7 KFT AND UP...AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS MONDAY OVER THE
WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING AREAS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING UP. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 6OS AND 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BEGIN TO RISE SHARPLY
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...CURRENTLY THINK THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING
OVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT
KCOS AND KPUB DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW CIGS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY RESTRICT
VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST FOR THE
NEXT 24H. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

WE MAY SEE RESTRICTED VIS/CIGS AT KALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD THROUGH MID EVENING
AS THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP IN THE VALLEY. MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ076-078-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ073-075-080-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 260534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1134 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM ON ITS WAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING A LEAD SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING OUT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AT THIS TIME. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGHING IS REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH SOME EASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS STARTING TO BRING BACK SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEW PTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND MAINLY TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

THE LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN DIGGING THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE PROJECTED MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO EASTERN COLORADO ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM. COULD STILL SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF KIOWA...BENT AND
PROWERS COUNTIES...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING TO
BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OWNING TO
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WESTERLY AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY. FURTHER WEST...COULD SEE SOME
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTS...WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE MORNING...GENERALLY AOA 10K FEET...WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO AROUND 8K FEET OR LOWER WITH DIABATIC COOLING IN
STRONGER STORMS. CURRENTLY HAVE WINTER STORM WATCHES STARTING AT 15Z
SUNDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD AND THE EASTERN
MTS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...WITH MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG A BOUNDARY SUPPORTING MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
SHEAR. OTHERWISE...INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA BURN SCARS...ESPECIALLY THE WALDO CANYON
AND EAST PEAK SCARS...WITH TRAINING STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS. PEOPLE LIVING NEAR THE BURN
SCARS SHOULD BE MINDFULL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...HIGH IMPACT HEAVY SNOW EVENT SHAPING UP FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NV AND UT.
MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION ON
SUNDAY THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT IT EASTWARD INTO OK/TX AND SOUTHERN KS BY
MONDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK BRINGS A HEALTHY SHOT OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG WITH DEEP EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL IMPACT THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS WHERE
1-2 FEET OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING UP TO 3 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
AREAS...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...CAN`T REALLY RULE
THIS POSSIBILITY OUT. REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES COOL AND HOW LOW SNOW LEVELS DROP SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. WITH WITH THE LIKLIHOOD FOR INTENSE PRECIPITATION RATES
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND SUNDAY EVENING...DIABATIC COOLING
COULD DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 6000 FEET...THOUGH THINK SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ABOVE 7000 FEET...AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY AND SOME MELTING OCCURS ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS MAY HELP MITIGATE THE IMPACT SOME FOR
THE ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6-7KFT.

HAVE UPDATED WINTER STORM WATCHES TO INCLUDE THE WET MOUNTAIN
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND WESTERN FREMONT COUNTY...AND THE SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR OF WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
TELLER...CHAFFEE COUNTY...AND THE WESTERN MOSQUITO AND EASTERN
SAWATCH RANGE...THOUGH HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE HEAVIER SNOW
WILL FALL IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...FEEL THERE IS
A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THESE AREAS WILL ATTAIN 8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12
HOURS FOR THE MTN LOCATIONS...AND 6 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE VALLEY
AREAS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES (2
INCHES PER HOUR)...AND QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED
TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE WATCH. SOME OF THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY END
UP UPGRADED TO ADVISORIES INSTEAD OF WARNINGS...BUT TOO SOON TO
SAY AT THIS POINT RIGHT NOW WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE
WARNINGS AND THE ADVISORIES WILL END UP. SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL TAIL OFF THERE
A BIT EARLIER THAN EVERYWHERE ELSE...AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OUT THAT
WAY MAY BE MORE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL...SO WILL INCLUDE THEM IN THE WATCH AS WELL. ONE
AREA WHICH ISN`T WELL CAPTURED BY THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCHES
IS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. WHILE THE VALLEY CENTER MAY ONLY PICK UP
AN INCH OR TWO DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AND MELT IT OFF
AGAIN...THE VALLEY EDGES COULD SEE SOME SHARP GRADIENTS OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. THINK THAT CRESTONE COULD BE ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS AS
EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDS UP TO H3...WELL ABOVE THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTN BARRIER. AND THESE EAST WINDS MAY ALSO IMPINGE ON THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS AS WELL. ALTHOUGH LATEST RUNS ARE
NOT HITTING THESE AREAS ALL THAT HARD...PAST EXPERIENCE WITH
WRAPPED UP LOWS LIKE THIS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THESE
AREAS COULD BE IMPACTED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ADVISORY
ISSUED FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL
IMPACT...BUT FOR NOW...SNOW AMOUNTS DON`T APPEAR HEAVY ENOUGH AND
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WATCH. BUT THOSE NEAR THE VALLEY
EDGES SHOULD KEEP ADVISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OF HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY WILL BE ANOTHER TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ZONE. THINK
THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF
I-25...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA VALUES TO THE EAST. AGAIN...GIVEN
THE SNOWFALL RATES HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THESE ZONES IN THE WATCH.
AND FINALLY...NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY MAY END UP NEEDING AN
ADVISORY AT SOME POINT...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY UP THAT WAY FOR
NOW. IN FACT...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY MAY END UP ON
EITHER THE HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOW END WARNING SIDE OF
THINGS...AND ALL WILL DEPEND ON THAT NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND. BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES...HAVE INCLUDED THEM WITH THE THOUGHT THAT 8 INCHES WITHIN
12 HOURS MAY BE DOABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FALLING NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THESE
AREAS...THIS WILL LIKELY BE WELCOME RAINFALL TO MOST. DON`T THINK
RATES WILL BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND THE LIKE AS THESE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME ENHANCED FLOWS.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW SUNDAY EVENING WHERE WE MAY BE WATCHING
THE BURN SCARS CLOSELY UNTIL THE SNOW LEVELS DROP SUFFICIENTLY.
MOST VULNERABLE MAY BE THE EAST PEAK BURN SCAR WHERE INSTABILITIES
MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY EVENING. BUT WALDO WILL ALSO NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. GIVEN THE PATTERN...ITS MORE LIKELY THAT
RATES WILL BE JUST UNDER FLASH FLOOD CRITERIA...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE DRAINAGES RUN WITH WATER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOULD SEE RAIN
AND SNOW TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS HANGS ON TO
PRECIPITATION THE LONGEST...BUT LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK. IT IS NOT FAVORED BY WPC...THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED GRIDS CLOSER TO THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF.

A DRY SPELL RETURNS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S
AND 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY MID-LATE WEEK AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROF
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S.  AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION LOOKS RATHER SPOTTY AT THIS POINT. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY COME NEXT
WEEKEND....BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM PASSING WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH...SO PRECIPITATION DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AT THIS POINT. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
EASTERLY LLVL FLOW WAS DRAWING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS AND FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT COS AND
PUB BETWEEN 12Z-16Z...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER 18Z.

THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS AND INCREASED
CONVECTION TO KALS AS WELL...THOUGH THE SLV IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE OROGRAPHICS AS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE E
MTS WILL. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z...THEN OCNL MVFR AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFT 19Z UNDER STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ061>063-076>078-081-087-088.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ058-060-065-066-068-072>075-079-080-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 260534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1134 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM ON ITS WAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING A LEAD SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING OUT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AT THIS TIME. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGHING IS REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH SOME EASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS STARTING TO BRING BACK SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEW PTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND MAINLY TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

THE LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN DIGGING THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE PROJECTED MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO EASTERN COLORADO ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM. COULD STILL SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF KIOWA...BENT AND
PROWERS COUNTIES...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING TO
BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OWNING TO
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WESTERLY AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY. FURTHER WEST...COULD SEE SOME
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTS...WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE MORNING...GENERALLY AOA 10K FEET...WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO AROUND 8K FEET OR LOWER WITH DIABATIC COOLING IN
STRONGER STORMS. CURRENTLY HAVE WINTER STORM WATCHES STARTING AT 15Z
SUNDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD AND THE EASTERN
MTS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...WITH MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG A BOUNDARY SUPPORTING MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
SHEAR. OTHERWISE...INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA BURN SCARS...ESPECIALLY THE WALDO CANYON
AND EAST PEAK SCARS...WITH TRAINING STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS. PEOPLE LIVING NEAR THE BURN
SCARS SHOULD BE MINDFULL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...HIGH IMPACT HEAVY SNOW EVENT SHAPING UP FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NV AND UT.
MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION ON
SUNDAY THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT IT EASTWARD INTO OK/TX AND SOUTHERN KS BY
MONDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK BRINGS A HEALTHY SHOT OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG WITH DEEP EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL IMPACT THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS WHERE
1-2 FEET OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING UP TO 3 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
AREAS...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...CAN`T REALLY RULE
THIS POSSIBILITY OUT. REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES COOL AND HOW LOW SNOW LEVELS DROP SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. WITH WITH THE LIKLIHOOD FOR INTENSE PRECIPITATION RATES
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND SUNDAY EVENING...DIABATIC COOLING
COULD DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 6000 FEET...THOUGH THINK SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ABOVE 7000 FEET...AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY AND SOME MELTING OCCURS ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS MAY HELP MITIGATE THE IMPACT SOME FOR
THE ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6-7KFT.

HAVE UPDATED WINTER STORM WATCHES TO INCLUDE THE WET MOUNTAIN
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND WESTERN FREMONT COUNTY...AND THE SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR OF WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
TELLER...CHAFFEE COUNTY...AND THE WESTERN MOSQUITO AND EASTERN
SAWATCH RANGE...THOUGH HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE HEAVIER SNOW
WILL FALL IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...FEEL THERE IS
A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THESE AREAS WILL ATTAIN 8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12
HOURS FOR THE MTN LOCATIONS...AND 6 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE VALLEY
AREAS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES (2
INCHES PER HOUR)...AND QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED
TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE WATCH. SOME OF THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY END
UP UPGRADED TO ADVISORIES INSTEAD OF WARNINGS...BUT TOO SOON TO
SAY AT THIS POINT RIGHT NOW WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE
WARNINGS AND THE ADVISORIES WILL END UP. SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL TAIL OFF THERE
A BIT EARLIER THAN EVERYWHERE ELSE...AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OUT THAT
WAY MAY BE MORE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL...SO WILL INCLUDE THEM IN THE WATCH AS WELL. ONE
AREA WHICH ISN`T WELL CAPTURED BY THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCHES
IS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. WHILE THE VALLEY CENTER MAY ONLY PICK UP
AN INCH OR TWO DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AND MELT IT OFF
AGAIN...THE VALLEY EDGES COULD SEE SOME SHARP GRADIENTS OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. THINK THAT CRESTONE COULD BE ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS AS
EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDS UP TO H3...WELL ABOVE THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTN BARRIER. AND THESE EAST WINDS MAY ALSO IMPINGE ON THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS AS WELL. ALTHOUGH LATEST RUNS ARE
NOT HITTING THESE AREAS ALL THAT HARD...PAST EXPERIENCE WITH
WRAPPED UP LOWS LIKE THIS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THESE
AREAS COULD BE IMPACTED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ADVISORY
ISSUED FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL
IMPACT...BUT FOR NOW...SNOW AMOUNTS DON`T APPEAR HEAVY ENOUGH AND
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WATCH. BUT THOSE NEAR THE VALLEY
EDGES SHOULD KEEP ADVISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OF HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY WILL BE ANOTHER TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ZONE. THINK
THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF
I-25...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA VALUES TO THE EAST. AGAIN...GIVEN
THE SNOWFALL RATES HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THESE ZONES IN THE WATCH.
AND FINALLY...NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY MAY END UP NEEDING AN
ADVISORY AT SOME POINT...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY UP THAT WAY FOR
NOW. IN FACT...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY MAY END UP ON
EITHER THE HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOW END WARNING SIDE OF
THINGS...AND ALL WILL DEPEND ON THAT NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND. BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES...HAVE INCLUDED THEM WITH THE THOUGHT THAT 8 INCHES WITHIN
12 HOURS MAY BE DOABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FALLING NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THESE
AREAS...THIS WILL LIKELY BE WELCOME RAINFALL TO MOST. DON`T THINK
RATES WILL BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND THE LIKE AS THESE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME ENHANCED FLOWS.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW SUNDAY EVENING WHERE WE MAY BE WATCHING
THE BURN SCARS CLOSELY UNTIL THE SNOW LEVELS DROP SUFFICIENTLY.
MOST VULNERABLE MAY BE THE EAST PEAK BURN SCAR WHERE INSTABILITIES
MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY EVENING. BUT WALDO WILL ALSO NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. GIVEN THE PATTERN...ITS MORE LIKELY THAT
RATES WILL BE JUST UNDER FLASH FLOOD CRITERIA...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE DRAINAGES RUN WITH WATER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOULD SEE RAIN
AND SNOW TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS HANGS ON TO
PRECIPITATION THE LONGEST...BUT LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK. IT IS NOT FAVORED BY WPC...THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED GRIDS CLOSER TO THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF.

A DRY SPELL RETURNS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S
AND 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY MID-LATE WEEK AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROF
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S.  AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION LOOKS RATHER SPOTTY AT THIS POINT. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY COME NEXT
WEEKEND....BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM PASSING WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH...SO PRECIPITATION DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AT THIS POINT. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
EASTERLY LLVL FLOW WAS DRAWING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS AND FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT COS AND
PUB BETWEEN 12Z-16Z...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER 18Z.

THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS AND INCREASED
CONVECTION TO KALS AS WELL...THOUGH THE SLV IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE OROGRAPHICS AS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE E
MTS WILL. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z...THEN OCNL MVFR AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFT 19Z UNDER STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ061>063-076>078-081-087-088.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ058-060-065-066-068-072>075-079-080-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 252137
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
337 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM ON ITS WAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING A LEAD SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING OUT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AT THIS TIME. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGHING IS REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH SOME EASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS STARTING TO BRING BACK SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEW PTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND MAINLY TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

THE LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN DIGGING THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE PROJECTED MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO EASTERN COLORADO ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM. COULD STILL SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF KIOWA...BENT AND
PROWERS COUNTIES...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING TO
BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OWNING TO
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WESTERLY AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY. FURTHER WEST...COULD SEE SOME
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTS...WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE MORNING...GENERALLY AOA 10K FEET...WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO AROUND 8K FEET OR LOWER WITH DIABATIC COOLING IN
STRONGER STORMS. CURRENTLY HAVE WINTER STORM WATCHES STARTING AT 15Z
SUNDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD AND THE EASTERN
MTS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...WITH MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG A BOUNDARY SUPPORTING MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
SHEAR. OTHERWISE...INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA BURN SCARS...ESPECIALLY THE WALDO CANYON
AND EAST PEAK SCARS...WITH TRAINING STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS. PEOPLE LIVING NEAR THE BURN
SCARS SHOULD BE MINDFULL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...HIGH IMPACT HEAVY SNOW EVENT SHAPING UP FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NV AND UT.
MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION ON
SUNDAY THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT IT EASTWARD INTO OK/TX AND SOUTHERN KS BY
MONDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK BRINGS A HEALTHY SHOT OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG WITH DEEP EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL IMPACT THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS WHERE
1-2 FEET OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING UP TO 3 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
AREAS...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...CAN`T REALLY RULE
THIS POSSIBILITY OUT. REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES COOL AND HOW LOW SNOW LEVELS DROP SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. WITH WITH THE LIKLIHOOD FOR INTENSE PRECIPITATION RATES
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND SUNDAY EVENING...DIABATIC COOLING
COULD DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 6000 FEET...THOUGH THINK SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ABOVE 7000 FEET...AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY AND SOME MELTING OCCURS ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS MAY HELP MITIGATE THE IMPACT SOME FOR
THE ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6-7KFT.

HAVE UPDATED WINTER STORM WATCHES TO INCLUDE THE WET MOUNTAIN
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND WESTERN FREMONT COUNTY...AND THE SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR OF WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
TELLER...CHAFFEE COUNTY...AND THE WESTERN MOSQUITO AND EASTERN
SAWATCH RANGE...THOUGH HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE HEAVIER SNOW
WILL FALL IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...FEEL THERE IS
A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THESE AREAS WILL ATTAIN 8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12
HOURS FOR THE MTN LOCATIONS...AND 6 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE VALLEY
AREAS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES (2
INCHES PER HOUR)...AND QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED
TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE WATCH. SOME OF THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY END
UP UPGRADED TO ADVISORIES INSTEAD OF WARNINGS...BUT TOO SOON TO
SAY AT THIS POINT RIGHT NOW WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE
WARNINGS AND THE ADVISORIES WILL END UP. SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL TAIL OFF THERE
A BIT EARLIER THAN EVERYWHERE ELSE...AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OUT THAT
WAY MAY BE MORE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL...SO WILL INCLUDE THEM IN THE WATCH AS WELL. ONE
AREA WHICH ISN`T WELL CAPTURED BY THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCHES
IS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. WHILE THE VALLEY CENTER MAY ONLY PICK UP
AN INCH OR TWO DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AND MELT IT OFF
AGAIN...THE VALLEY EDGES COULD SEE SOME SHARP GRADIENTS OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. THINK THAT CRESTONE COULD BE ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS AS
EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDS UP TO H3...WELL ABOVE THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTN BARRIER. AND THESE EAST WINDS MAY ALSO IMPINGE ON THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS AS WELL. ALTHOUGH LATEST RUNS ARE
NOT HITTING THESE AREAS ALL THAT HARD...PAST EXPERIENCE WITH
WRAPPED UP LOWS LIKE THIS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THESE
AREAS COULD BE IMPACTED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ADVISORY
ISSUED FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL
IMPACT...BUT FOR NOW...SNOW AMOUNTS DON`T APPEAR HEAVY ENOUGH AND
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WATCH. BUT THOSE NEAR THE VALLEY
EDGES SHOULD KEEP ADVISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OF HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY WILL BE ANOTHER TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ZONE. THINK
THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF
I-25...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA VALUES TO THE EAST. AGAIN...GIVEN
THE SNOWFALL RATES HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THESE ZONES IN THE WATCH.
AND FINALLY...NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY MAY END UP NEEDING AN
ADVISORY AT SOME POINT...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY UP THAT WAY FOR
NOW. IN FACT...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY MAY END UP ON
EITHER THE HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOW END WARNING SIDE OF
THINGS...AND ALL WILL DEPEND ON THAT NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND. BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES...HAVE INCLUDED THEM WITH THE THOUGHT THAT 8 INCHES WITHIN
12 HOURS MAY BE DOABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FALLING NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THESE
AREAS...THIS WILL LIKELY BE WELCOME RAINFALL TO MOST. DON`T THINK
RATES WILL BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND THE LIKE AS THESE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME ENHANCED FLOWS.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW SUNDAY EVENING WHERE WE MAY BE WATCHING
THE BURN SCARS CLOSELY UNTIL THE SNOW LEVELS DROP SUFFICIENTLY.
MOST VULNERABLE MAY BE THE EAST PEAK BURN SCAR WHERE INSTABILITIES
MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY EVENING. BUT WALDO WILL ALSO NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. GIVEN THE PATTERN...ITS MORE LIKELY THAT
RATES WILL BE JUST UNDER FLASH FLOOD CRITERIA...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE DRAINAGES RUN WITH WATER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOULD SEE RAIN
AND SNOW TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS HANGS ON TO
PRECIPITATION THE LONGEST...BUT LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK. IT IS NOT FAVORED BY WPC...THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED GRIDS CLOSER TO THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF.

A DRY SPELL RETURNS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S
AND 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY MID-LATE WEEK AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROF
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S.  AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION LOOKS RATHER SPOTTY AT THIS POINT. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY COME NEXT
WEEKEND....BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM PASSING WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH...SO PRECIPITATION DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AT THIS POINT. -KT


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE AT COS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WITH IFR CIGS AND FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT COS AND PUB
BETWEEN 12Z-16Z SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFT 18Z WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE VALLEY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ061>063-076>078-081-087-088.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ058-060-065-066-068-072>075-079-080-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 251806
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1206 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO START AFFECTING THE REGION STARTING LATER
TODAY...

CURRENTLY...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE AS
A LEAD SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. LOCALLY...SKIES PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR
OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S PLAINS AND 20S TO 40S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 24H. BY 00Z (6 PM THIS
EVENING)....TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER THE SE CO PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY THIS MORNING
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING
AND BECOME LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LEAD WAVE MOVES EAST. THIS
SCTD PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BURN SCARS
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND THESE AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...

AS WAVE INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST CO.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. SPC HAS
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A SVR
TSRA WATCH THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT KNOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE SVR
THREAT WILL EXIST. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ON THE FAR EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LOWER CIGS LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDINESS.

OVER THE MTNS...PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE A BIT AS WEAK
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVES IN IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

I EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CONTDVD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET. THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE MOST FAVORED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DROP AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STORM PATH IS
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL HAZARDS
ACROSS THE AREA...FROM HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PLAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW NEAR TRINIDAD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BOUNDARY SETTING
UP FROM NEAR PUEBLO...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SHEAR
AND DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...STORMS WILL ROTATE...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND NEAR SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS SMALL...BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
BE SNOW LEVELS. WHERE ITS COLD ENOUGH...ITS GOING TO SNOW. THIS
STORM SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY COLD. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 7-8 KFT. ABOVE THIS LEVEL...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL
FALL. THE STORM TRACK AND FLOW AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PIKES PEAK. THIS
SNOW WILL BE WET AND HEAVY...AND TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. SNOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE STORM PATH IS A
BIT LESS FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THERE...HOWEVER A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THE SAN JUAN RANGE MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION AN THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ELEVATED AVALANCHE
THREAT. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STORM TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHICH PROVIDES THE FOCUS
FOR DEEP AND STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE
ADVECTING RICH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES...IF NOT MORE...IS
LIKELY. LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL STILL SEE RAIN WITH
AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF RUNOFF FLOODING AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THIS STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.
PREPARE FOR THE SNOWFALL IF YOU LIVE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND BE READY FOR WET TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUILDING INTO COLORADO. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. STEERING
FLOWS WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
OFF THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
BY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A
COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS WILL BE AT COS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH
IFR CIGS AND FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT COS AND PUB BETWEEN 12Z-16Z
SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ072>075-079-080-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 251806
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1206 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO START AFFECTING THE REGION STARTING LATER
TODAY...

CURRENTLY...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE AS
A LEAD SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. LOCALLY...SKIES PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR
OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S PLAINS AND 20S TO 40S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 24H. BY 00Z (6 PM THIS
EVENING)....TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER THE SE CO PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY THIS MORNING
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING
AND BECOME LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LEAD WAVE MOVES EAST. THIS
SCTD PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BURN SCARS
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND THESE AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...

AS WAVE INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST CO.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. SPC HAS
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A SVR
TSRA WATCH THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT KNOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE SVR
THREAT WILL EXIST. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ON THE FAR EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LOWER CIGS LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDINESS.

OVER THE MTNS...PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE A BIT AS WEAK
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVES IN IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

I EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CONTDVD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET. THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE MOST FAVORED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DROP AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STORM PATH IS
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL HAZARDS
ACROSS THE AREA...FROM HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PLAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW NEAR TRINIDAD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BOUNDARY SETTING
UP FROM NEAR PUEBLO...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SHEAR
AND DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...STORMS WILL ROTATE...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND NEAR SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS SMALL...BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
BE SNOW LEVELS. WHERE ITS COLD ENOUGH...ITS GOING TO SNOW. THIS
STORM SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY COLD. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 7-8 KFT. ABOVE THIS LEVEL...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL
FALL. THE STORM TRACK AND FLOW AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PIKES PEAK. THIS
SNOW WILL BE WET AND HEAVY...AND TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. SNOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE STORM PATH IS A
BIT LESS FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THERE...HOWEVER A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THE SAN JUAN RANGE MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION AN THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ELEVATED AVALANCHE
THREAT. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STORM TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHICH PROVIDES THE FOCUS
FOR DEEP AND STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE
ADVECTING RICH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES...IF NOT MORE...IS
LIKELY. LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL STILL SEE RAIN WITH
AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF RUNOFF FLOODING AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THIS STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.
PREPARE FOR THE SNOWFALL IF YOU LIVE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND BE READY FOR WET TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUILDING INTO COLORADO. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. STEERING
FLOWS WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
OFF THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
BY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A
COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS WILL BE AT COS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH
IFR CIGS AND FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT COS AND PUB BETWEEN 12Z-16Z
SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ072>075-079-080-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 251027
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
427 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO START AFFECTING THE REGION STARTING LATER
TODAY...

CURRENTLY...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE AS
A LEAD SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. LOCALLY...SKIES PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR
OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S PLAINS AND 20S TO 40S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 24H. BY 00Z (6 PM THIS
EVENING)....TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER THE SE CO PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY THIS MORNING
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING
AND BECOME LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LEAD WAVE MOVES EAST. THIS
SCTD PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BURN SCARS
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND THESE AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...

AS WAVE INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST CO.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. SPC HAS
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A SVR
TSRA WATCH THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT KNOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE SVR
THREAT WILL EXIST. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ON THE FAR EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LOWER CIGS LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDINESS.

OVER THE MTNS...PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE A BIT AS WEAK
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVES IN IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

I EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CONTDVD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET. THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE MOST FAVORED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DROP AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STORM PATH IS
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL HAZARDS
ACROSS THE AREA...FROM HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PLAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW NEAR TRINIDAD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BOUNDARY SETTING
UP FROM NEAR PUEBLO...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SHEAR
AND DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...STORMS WILL ROTATE...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND NEAR SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS SMALL...BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
BE SNOW LEVELS. WHERE ITS COLD ENOUGH...ITS GOING TO SNOW. THIS
STORM SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY COLD. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 7-8 KFT. ABOVE THIS LEVEL...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL
FALL. THE STORM TRACK AND FLOW AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PIKES PEAK. THIS
SNOW WILL BE WET AND HEAVY...AND TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. SNOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE STORM PATH IS A
BIT LESS FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THERE...HOWEVER A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THE SAN JUAN RANGE MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION AN THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ELEVATED AVALANCHE
THREAT. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STORM TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHICH PROVIDES THE FOCUS
FOR DEEP AND STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE
ADVECTING RICH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES...IF NOT MORE...IS
LIKELY. LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL STILL SEE RAIN WITH
AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF RUNOFF FLOODING AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THIS STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.
PREPARE FOR THE SNOWFALL IF YOU LIVE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND BE READY FOR WET TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUILDING INTO COLORADO. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. STEERING
FLOWS WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
OFF THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
BY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A
COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT (06Z/26TH) AT ALL 3
TAF SITES (KCOS...KALS AND KPUB). WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLD TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ANY OF THE THREE SITES.

LATER TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES ON THE PLAINS AND WE MAY SEE
LOW CIGS/FOG AT KPUB AND KCOS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLD SHRA WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...A MAJOR SPRING STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HEAVY PRECIP IS LIKELY WITH LOW CIGS.
STILL NEEDS TO BE DETERMINED IF IT WILL BE SNOW AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY) BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ072>075-079-080-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 251027
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
427 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO START AFFECTING THE REGION STARTING LATER
TODAY...

CURRENTLY...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE AS
A LEAD SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. LOCALLY...SKIES PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR
OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S PLAINS AND 20S TO 40S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 24H. BY 00Z (6 PM THIS
EVENING)....TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER THE SE CO PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY THIS MORNING
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING
AND BECOME LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LEAD WAVE MOVES EAST. THIS
SCTD PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BURN SCARS
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND THESE AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...

AS WAVE INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST CO.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. SPC HAS
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A SVR
TSRA WATCH THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT KNOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE SVR
THREAT WILL EXIST. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ON THE FAR EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LOWER CIGS LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDINESS.

OVER THE MTNS...PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE A BIT AS WEAK
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVES IN IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

I EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CONTDVD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET. THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE MOST FAVORED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DROP AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STORM PATH IS
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL HAZARDS
ACROSS THE AREA...FROM HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PLAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW NEAR TRINIDAD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BOUNDARY SETTING
UP FROM NEAR PUEBLO...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SHEAR
AND DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...STORMS WILL ROTATE...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND NEAR SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS SMALL...BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
BE SNOW LEVELS. WHERE ITS COLD ENOUGH...ITS GOING TO SNOW. THIS
STORM SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY COLD. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 7-8 KFT. ABOVE THIS LEVEL...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL
FALL. THE STORM TRACK AND FLOW AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PIKES PEAK. THIS
SNOW WILL BE WET AND HEAVY...AND TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. SNOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE STORM PATH IS A
BIT LESS FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THERE...HOWEVER A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THE SAN JUAN RANGE MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION AN THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ELEVATED AVALANCHE
THREAT. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STORM TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHICH PROVIDES THE FOCUS
FOR DEEP AND STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE
ADVECTING RICH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES...IF NOT MORE...IS
LIKELY. LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL STILL SEE RAIN WITH
AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF RUNOFF FLOODING AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THIS STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.
PREPARE FOR THE SNOWFALL IF YOU LIVE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND BE READY FOR WET TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUILDING INTO COLORADO. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. STEERING
FLOWS WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
OFF THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
BY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A
COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT (06Z/26TH) AT ALL 3
TAF SITES (KCOS...KALS AND KPUB). WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLD TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ANY OF THE THREE SITES.

LATER TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES ON THE PLAINS AND WE MAY SEE
LOW CIGS/FOG AT KPUB AND KCOS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLD SHRA WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...A MAJOR SPRING STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HEAVY PRECIP IS LIKELY WITH LOW CIGS.
STILL NEEDS TO BE DETERMINED IF IT WILL BE SNOW AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY) BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ072>075-079-080-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.

AN UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTING TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO. THIS WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...THROUGH SAT MORN. THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE AFTN...CROSSING THE E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR
LATE AFTN AND EVE.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS AFTER 18Z WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MT PASSES
UNDER THUNDERSHOWERS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.

AN UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTING TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO. THIS WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...THROUGH SAT MORN. THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE AFTN...CROSSING THE E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR
LATE AFTN AND EVE.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS AFTER 18Z WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MT PASSES
UNDER THUNDERSHOWERS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 250536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.

AN UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTING TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO. THIS WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...THROUGH SAT MORN. THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE AFTN...CROSSING THE E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR
LATE AFTN AND EVE.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS AFTER 18Z WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MT PASSES
UNDER THUNDERSHOWERS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 250536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.

AN UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTING TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO. THIS WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...THROUGH SAT MORN. THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE AFTN...CROSSING THE E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR
LATE AFTN AND EVE.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS AFTER 18Z WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MT PASSES
UNDER THUNDERSHOWERS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 242133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND
50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. ALSO...STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND A BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY ABOVE 8500 FEET.

TOMORROW...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL ONTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 9000 FEET.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR ALL 3 SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES. WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.  SIMILAR STORY FOR THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW...WITH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LIKELY INCREASING
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 242133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND
50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. ALSO...STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND A BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY ABOVE 8500 FEET.

TOMORROW...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL ONTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 9000 FEET.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR ALL 3 SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES. WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.  SIMILAR STORY FOR THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW...WITH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LIKELY INCREASING
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 242133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND
50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. ALSO...STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND A BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY ABOVE 8500 FEET.

TOMORROW...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL ONTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 9000 FEET.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR ALL 3 SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES. WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.  SIMILAR STORY FOR THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW...WITH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LIKELY INCREASING
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 241712
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR TODAY AND LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...LOW END LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER FAR E PLAINS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD WEAK MID LVL TROUGH OVER ARIZ THIS MORNING. FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER SW CO ATTM (3 AM). OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE SE PLAINS...AND SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS WRAPPED UP ON THE N END OF THE LOW AS
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S TO L50S OVER THE NE SECTIONS OF THE SE
COLO PLAINS. SOME FOG WAS NOTED.

TODAY...

MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER SE COLO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A LOW-RISK LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER
KIOWA...PROWERS...N BACA AND FAR E LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FROM ABOUT
NOONTIME TO ABOUT 4 PM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET UP VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLAINS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO MOVE SLOWLY
SE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN
ARE VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN DRAWBACK FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION IS IT MAY
SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE
DEW POINTS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY
CAREFULLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC TROUGH AXIS.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...WITH MOSTLY A VIRGA WIND THREAT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AS
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. IN THE MTNS...BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW MTNS AS SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TEMP-WISE IT WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS IN AT OR
ABOVE 60 IN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME VERY ISOLD -TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY
OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS...20S AND 30S VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN TRACKING AN UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN ON THROUGH CENTRAL NM SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF OUR AREA AND ON THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH THE COVETED ABQ LOW
TRACK...AND WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUN INTO MON MORNING...WITH MDT TO HEAVY PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHEREAS YESTERDAY`S
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAD AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP OF LOW CENTER
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN AND SRN NM...TODAY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE IN NEARLY UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NM. THIS LENDS STRONG CONFIDENCE TO HIGH POPS OVER THE
AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. BARRING A MAJOR SHIFT IN MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT WINTER HEADLINES TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TRANSITIONING TO
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF SERN CO UNDER DRY SW FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS
SAT MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID
70S...TEMPERED ONLY BY HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP IN WAVES OVER THE CONTDVD. A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOULD
NOT BE SEVERE.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE IMPACT FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ERN MTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW FOR THE MTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT RATHER HIGH INITIALLY...AND
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE QPF SHOULD FALL SUN NIGHT...WHEN H7
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO MINUS 2 OR 3...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6500 FEET OR EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. SO...EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. HIGHER ELEVATION CITIES
SUCH AS LEADVILLE...WOODLAND PARK...AND WESTCLIFFE SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS STORM...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE OTHER NOTABLE THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HGWY 50. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG
CAPE...AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE RUNNING 40-50 KTS. LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WITH A GREAT DEAL OF LOW
LEVEL HELICITY A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE STILL PRETTY SKETCHY THIS
FAR OUT.

THIS STORM COULD ALSO THREATEN THE WALDO CANYON AREA AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FALLING TEMPS WILL HELP MITIGATE THAT
CONCERN BY SUN EVENING.

MONDAY...THE STORM PULLS AWAY IN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING SOME
WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER SE CO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE
AND OUT OF OUR CWA. A STRONG RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND LEAD TO DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE END OF APRIL.
HOPEFULLY THIS STORM WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A LATE BOOST IN SNOWPACK
TO MITIGATE THE DROUGHT AND LATER FIRE WX CONCERNS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE
MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY
ABOVE 8500 FEET. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT
ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCSH STARTING AT 20Z FOR
KCOS AND KALS...AND AT 21Z FOR KPUB. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES.
WILL BE MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241712
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR TODAY AND LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...LOW END LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER FAR E PLAINS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD WEAK MID LVL TROUGH OVER ARIZ THIS MORNING. FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER SW CO ATTM (3 AM). OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE SE PLAINS...AND SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS WRAPPED UP ON THE N END OF THE LOW AS
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S TO L50S OVER THE NE SECTIONS OF THE SE
COLO PLAINS. SOME FOG WAS NOTED.

TODAY...

MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER SE COLO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A LOW-RISK LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER
KIOWA...PROWERS...N BACA AND FAR E LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FROM ABOUT
NOONTIME TO ABOUT 4 PM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET UP VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLAINS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO MOVE SLOWLY
SE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN
ARE VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN DRAWBACK FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION IS IT MAY
SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE
DEW POINTS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY
CAREFULLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC TROUGH AXIS.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...WITH MOSTLY A VIRGA WIND THREAT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AS
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. IN THE MTNS...BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW MTNS AS SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TEMP-WISE IT WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS IN AT OR
ABOVE 60 IN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME VERY ISOLD -TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY
OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS...20S AND 30S VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN TRACKING AN UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN ON THROUGH CENTRAL NM SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF OUR AREA AND ON THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH THE COVETED ABQ LOW
TRACK...AND WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUN INTO MON MORNING...WITH MDT TO HEAVY PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHEREAS YESTERDAY`S
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAD AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP OF LOW CENTER
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN AND SRN NM...TODAY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE IN NEARLY UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NM. THIS LENDS STRONG CONFIDENCE TO HIGH POPS OVER THE
AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. BARRING A MAJOR SHIFT IN MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT WINTER HEADLINES TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TRANSITIONING TO
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF SERN CO UNDER DRY SW FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS
SAT MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID
70S...TEMPERED ONLY BY HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP IN WAVES OVER THE CONTDVD. A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOULD
NOT BE SEVERE.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE IMPACT FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ERN MTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW FOR THE MTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT RATHER HIGH INITIALLY...AND
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE QPF SHOULD FALL SUN NIGHT...WHEN H7
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO MINUS 2 OR 3...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6500 FEET OR EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. SO...EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. HIGHER ELEVATION CITIES
SUCH AS LEADVILLE...WOODLAND PARK...AND WESTCLIFFE SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS STORM...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE OTHER NOTABLE THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HGWY 50. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG
CAPE...AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE RUNNING 40-50 KTS. LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WITH A GREAT DEAL OF LOW
LEVEL HELICITY A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE STILL PRETTY SKETCHY THIS
FAR OUT.

THIS STORM COULD ALSO THREATEN THE WALDO CANYON AREA AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FALLING TEMPS WILL HELP MITIGATE THAT
CONCERN BY SUN EVENING.

MONDAY...THE STORM PULLS AWAY IN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING SOME
WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER SE CO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE
AND OUT OF OUR CWA. A STRONG RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND LEAD TO DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE END OF APRIL.
HOPEFULLY THIS STORM WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A LATE BOOST IN SNOWPACK
TO MITIGATE THE DROUGHT AND LATER FIRE WX CONCERNS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE
MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY
ABOVE 8500 FEET. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT
ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCSH STARTING AT 20Z FOR
KCOS AND KALS...AND AT 21Z FOR KPUB. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES.
WILL BE MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241712
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR TODAY AND LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...LOW END LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER FAR E PLAINS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD WEAK MID LVL TROUGH OVER ARIZ THIS MORNING. FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER SW CO ATTM (3 AM). OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE SE PLAINS...AND SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS WRAPPED UP ON THE N END OF THE LOW AS
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S TO L50S OVER THE NE SECTIONS OF THE SE
COLO PLAINS. SOME FOG WAS NOTED.

TODAY...

MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER SE COLO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A LOW-RISK LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER
KIOWA...PROWERS...N BACA AND FAR E LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FROM ABOUT
NOONTIME TO ABOUT 4 PM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET UP VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLAINS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO MOVE SLOWLY
SE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN
ARE VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN DRAWBACK FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION IS IT MAY
SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE
DEW POINTS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY
CAREFULLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC TROUGH AXIS.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...WITH MOSTLY A VIRGA WIND THREAT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AS
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. IN THE MTNS...BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW MTNS AS SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TEMP-WISE IT WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS IN AT OR
ABOVE 60 IN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME VERY ISOLD -TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY
OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS...20S AND 30S VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN TRACKING AN UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN ON THROUGH CENTRAL NM SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF OUR AREA AND ON THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH THE COVETED ABQ LOW
TRACK...AND WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUN INTO MON MORNING...WITH MDT TO HEAVY PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHEREAS YESTERDAY`S
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAD AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP OF LOW CENTER
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN AND SRN NM...TODAY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE IN NEARLY UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NM. THIS LENDS STRONG CONFIDENCE TO HIGH POPS OVER THE
AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. BARRING A MAJOR SHIFT IN MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT WINTER HEADLINES TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TRANSITIONING TO
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF SERN CO UNDER DRY SW FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS
SAT MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID
70S...TEMPERED ONLY BY HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP IN WAVES OVER THE CONTDVD. A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOULD
NOT BE SEVERE.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE IMPACT FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ERN MTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW FOR THE MTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT RATHER HIGH INITIALLY...AND
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE QPF SHOULD FALL SUN NIGHT...WHEN H7
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO MINUS 2 OR 3...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6500 FEET OR EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. SO...EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. HIGHER ELEVATION CITIES
SUCH AS LEADVILLE...WOODLAND PARK...AND WESTCLIFFE SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS STORM...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE OTHER NOTABLE THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HGWY 50. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG
CAPE...AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE RUNNING 40-50 KTS. LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WITH A GREAT DEAL OF LOW
LEVEL HELICITY A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE STILL PRETTY SKETCHY THIS
FAR OUT.

THIS STORM COULD ALSO THREATEN THE WALDO CANYON AREA AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FALLING TEMPS WILL HELP MITIGATE THAT
CONCERN BY SUN EVENING.

MONDAY...THE STORM PULLS AWAY IN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING SOME
WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER SE CO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE
AND OUT OF OUR CWA. A STRONG RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND LEAD TO DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE END OF APRIL.
HOPEFULLY THIS STORM WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A LATE BOOST IN SNOWPACK
TO MITIGATE THE DROUGHT AND LATER FIRE WX CONCERNS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE
MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY
ABOVE 8500 FEET. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT
ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCSH STARTING AT 20Z FOR
KCOS AND KALS...AND AT 21Z FOR KPUB. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES.
WILL BE MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 240949
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
349 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...LOW END LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER FAR E PLAINS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD WEAK MID LVL TROUGH OVER ARIZ THIS MORNING. FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER SW CO ATTM (3 AM). OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE SE PLAINS...AND SOME LLVL
MOISTURE WAS WRAPPED UP ON THE N END OF THE LOW AS DWPTS WERE IN THE
40S TO L50S OVER THE NE SXNS OF THE SE COLO PLAINS. SOME FOG WAS
NOTED.

TODAY...

MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER SE COLO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A LOW-RISK LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER
KIOWA...PROWERS...N BACA AND FAR E LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FROM ABOUT
NOONTIME TO ABOUT 4 PM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET UP VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLAINS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO MOVE SLOWLY
SE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN
ARE VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN DRAWBACK FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION IS IT MAY
SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE
DEWPTS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WIND SHIFT/SFC TROUGH
AXIS.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...WITH MOSTLY A VIRGA WIND THREAT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AS
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. IN THE MTNS...BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW MTNS AS SCTD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMP-WISE IT WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS IN AOA 60
IN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME VERY ISOLD -TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY
OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS...20S AND 30S VALLEYS. /HODANISH


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN TRACKING AN UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN ON THROUGH CENTRAL NM SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF OUR AREA AND ON THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH THE COVETED ABQ LOW
TRACK...AND WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUN INTO MON MORNING...WITH MDT TO HVY PRECIP EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHEREAS YESTERDAY`S 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE HAD AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP OF LOW CENTER TRACKS
THROUGH NORTHERN AND SRN NM...TODAY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
NEARLY UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL
NM. THIS LENDS STRONG CONFIDENCE TO HIGH POPS OVER THE AREA SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. BARRING A MAJOR SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT WINTER
HEADLINES TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TRANSITIONING TO
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GRT BASIN. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF SERN CO UNDER DRY SW FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SAT
MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID 70S...TEMPERED ONLY
BY HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
IN WAVES OVER THE CONTDVD. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOULD NOT BE SVR.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE IMPACT FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ERN MTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW FOR THE MTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT RATHER HIGH INITIALLY...AND
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE QPF SHOULD FALL SUN NIGHT...WHEN H7
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO MINUS 2 OR 3...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6500 FEET OR EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. SO...EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. HIGHER ELEVATION CITIES
SUCH AS LEADVILLE...WOODLAND PARK...AND WESTCLIFFE SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS STORM...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE OTHER NOTABLE THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HGWY
50. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...AND
BULK SHEAR WILL BE RUNNING 40-50 KTS. LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WITH A GREAT DEAL OF LLVL HELICITY A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL BE A POTENTIAL THREAT...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS
ARE STILL PRETTY SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT.

THIS STORM COULD ALSO THREATEN THE WALDO CANYON AREA AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FALLING TEMPS WILL HELP MITIGATE THAT
CONCERN BY SUN EVENING.

MONDAY...THE STORM PULLS AWAY IN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING SOME
WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER SE CO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE
AND OUT OF OUR CWA. A STRONG RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND LEAD TO DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE END OF APRIL.
HOPEFULLY THIS STORM WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A LATE BOOST IN SNOWPACK
TO MITIGATE THE DROUGHT AND LATER FIRE WX CONCERNS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
WINDS TODAY AT KCOS AND KPUB ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT...BUT
PREDICTING DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AS TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE A
WEAK NW GRADIENT OVER THE HIGH PLAIN WHILE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
FORCE AN UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE TWO WIND REGIMES WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY CAUSING WINDS LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AT KCOS AND
KPUB. A MORE SUSTAINED SFC WIND IS LIKELY AT KALS. ALL 3 TAF SITES
MAY SEE SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE AIRPORTS TODAY WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS. I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER
AT THE 3 SITES BUT PROBABILITY IS PRETTY LOW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 240949
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
349 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...LOW END LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER FAR E PLAINS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD WEAK MID LVL TROUGH OVER ARIZ THIS MORNING. FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER SW CO ATTM (3 AM). OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE SE PLAINS...AND SOME LLVL
MOISTURE WAS WRAPPED UP ON THE N END OF THE LOW AS DWPTS WERE IN THE
40S TO L50S OVER THE NE SXNS OF THE SE COLO PLAINS. SOME FOG WAS
NOTED.

TODAY...

MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER SE COLO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A LOW-RISK LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER
KIOWA...PROWERS...N BACA AND FAR E LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FROM ABOUT
NOONTIME TO ABOUT 4 PM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET UP VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLAINS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO MOVE SLOWLY
SE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN
ARE VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN DRAWBACK FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION IS IT MAY
SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE
DEWPTS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WIND SHIFT/SFC TROUGH
AXIS.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...WITH MOSTLY A VIRGA WIND THREAT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AS
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. IN THE MTNS...BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW MTNS AS SCTD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMP-WISE IT WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS IN AOA 60
IN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME VERY ISOLD -TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY
OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS...20S AND 30S VALLEYS. /HODANISH


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN TRACKING AN UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN ON THROUGH CENTRAL NM SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF OUR AREA AND ON THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH THE COVETED ABQ LOW
TRACK...AND WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUN INTO MON MORNING...WITH MDT TO HVY PRECIP EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHEREAS YESTERDAY`S 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE HAD AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP OF LOW CENTER TRACKS
THROUGH NORTHERN AND SRN NM...TODAY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
NEARLY UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL
NM. THIS LENDS STRONG CONFIDENCE TO HIGH POPS OVER THE AREA SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. BARRING A MAJOR SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT WINTER
HEADLINES TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TRANSITIONING TO
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GRT BASIN. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF SERN CO UNDER DRY SW FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SAT
MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID 70S...TEMPERED ONLY
BY HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
IN WAVES OVER THE CONTDVD. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOULD NOT BE SVR.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE IMPACT FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ERN MTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW FOR THE MTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT RATHER HIGH INITIALLY...AND
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE QPF SHOULD FALL SUN NIGHT...WHEN H7
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO MINUS 2 OR 3...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6500 FEET OR EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. SO...EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. HIGHER ELEVATION CITIES
SUCH AS LEADVILLE...WOODLAND PARK...AND WESTCLIFFE SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS STORM...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE OTHER NOTABLE THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HGWY
50. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...AND
BULK SHEAR WILL BE RUNNING 40-50 KTS. LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WITH A GREAT DEAL OF LLVL HELICITY A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL BE A POTENTIAL THREAT...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS
ARE STILL PRETTY SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT.

THIS STORM COULD ALSO THREATEN THE WALDO CANYON AREA AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FALLING TEMPS WILL HELP MITIGATE THAT
CONCERN BY SUN EVENING.

MONDAY...THE STORM PULLS AWAY IN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING SOME
WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER SE CO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE
AND OUT OF OUR CWA. A STRONG RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND LEAD TO DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE END OF APRIL.
HOPEFULLY THIS STORM WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A LATE BOOST IN SNOWPACK
TO MITIGATE THE DROUGHT AND LATER FIRE WX CONCERNS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
WINDS TODAY AT KCOS AND KPUB ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT...BUT
PREDICTING DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AS TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE A
WEAK NW GRADIENT OVER THE HIGH PLAIN WHILE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
FORCE AN UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE TWO WIND REGIMES WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY CAUSING WINDS LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AT KCOS AND
KPUB. A MORE SUSTAINED SFC WIND IS LIKELY AT KALS. ALL 3 TAF SITES
MAY SEE SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE AIRPORTS TODAY WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS. I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER
AT THE 3 SITES BUT PROBABILITY IS PRETTY LOW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




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