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000
FXUS65 KPUB 041920
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
120 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A CLUSTER OF TSRA JUST EAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS IS
MOVING SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TSRA HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SANGRE...CENTRAL...AND SAN JUAN MTNS OVER THE LAST FEW
HRS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO REFLECT LASTEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE PLAINS CONTINUES TO REMAIN
SUPPRESSED...BUT CUMULUS SHOULD START FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS. LUKINBEAL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LASTEST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ANY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
22Z AS LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LUKINBEAL

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MORE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL AND SRN NM TODAY. NO BIG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...THROUGH AZ
AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO SRN CO. SO...EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED CAPE AND SHEAR. GREATEST THREAT
FOR SVR WILL BE OVER THE NERN ZONES...GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...CROWLEY...KIOWA...AND NRN BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
SOME BORDERLINE SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND ERN MTS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVE.

H7 TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WITH
SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE
MTN AREAS. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN MCS OVER WRN KS TONIGHT SHOULD SEND SOME
OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NERN ZONES BY EARLY
SUN MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE PRIMARY AREA BEING THE MOUNTAINS.

GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...A RATHER STRONG COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY...WITH DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON MONDAY...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIME FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE.

SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
OVER THE S MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE
FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS DURING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS. THESE VALUES MAY BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT IF CIRRUS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MTN CONVECTION...
MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENGULF THE PLAINS WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...

DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW WITH EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE PLAINS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT ALL OF THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. NAM...EC...GFS ALL SHOW THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE HPC QPF
GRAPHICS DURING THE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. AN INCH OR SO
OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF ALL THE
MTNS IN THE NWS PUB FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...BURN SCAR FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ON THIS DAY...ALONG WITH THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WEST OF BUENA VISTA.

IT WILL BE COOL THIS DAY OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-12F BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TUESDAY...

IT WILL STILL BE MOIST OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH LLVL FLOW WILL NOT BE
AS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE MTNS DUE TO ALL OF
THE REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. ONCE AGAIN...PLAINS MAY BE
TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L80S MOST OF THE PLAINS.

LATER NEXT WEEK...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIF CONTINUES TO ADVECT MSTR INTO
THE SW CONUS. I SHOULD NOTE HOWEVER THAT THERE IS NOT UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT ON THIS AS THE EC SHOWS MORE W-SW FLOW AND THIS SHUNTS THE
BRUNT OF THE MSTR S OF THE FCST AREA. GFS IS MORE PROMISING AS IT
BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. I KEPT SCTD POPS OVER
THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ISOLD TSRA OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAFS SITES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR KALS AS STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PROPAGRATE OFF MTN AREAS IMPACTING KALS STARTING AROUND 2000Z.
HAVE KEPT VCTS OUT OF KCOS AND KPUB TAFS AS CONVECTION IS HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIME STARTING TODAY DUE TO A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND
WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...BUT WILL MONITOR TS DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATE
THE FORECAST IF NECESSARY. STEERING WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE DIRUNAL WIND
CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES. LUKINBEAL


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041735
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LASTEST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ANY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
22Z AS LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LUKINBEAL

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MORE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL AND SRN NM TODAY. NO BIG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...THROUGH AZ
AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO SRN CO. SO...EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED CAPE AND SHEAR. GREATEST THREAT
FOR SVR WILL BE OVER THE NERN ZONES...GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...CROWLEY...KIOWA...AND NRN BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
SOME BORDERLINE SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND ERN MTS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVE.

H7 TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WITH
SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE
MTN AREAS. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN MCS OVER WRN KS TONIGHT SHOULD SEND SOME
OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NERN ZONES BY EARLY
SUN MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE PRIMARY AREA BEING THE MOUNTAINS.

GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...A RATHER STRONG COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY...WITH DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON MONDAY...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIME FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE.

SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
OVER THE S MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE
FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS DURING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS. THESE VALUES MAY BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT IF CIRRUS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MTN CONVECTION...
MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENGULF THE PLAINS WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...

DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW WITH EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE PLAINS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT ALL OF THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. NAM...EC...GFS ALL SHOW THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE HPC QPF
GRAPHICS DURING THE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. AN INCH OR SO
OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF ALL THE
MTNS IN THE NWS PUB FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...BURN SCAR FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ON THIS DAY...ALONG WITH THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WEST OF BUENA VISTA.

IT WILL BE COOL THIS DAY OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-12F BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TUESDAY...

IT WILL STILL BE MOIST OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH LLVL FLOW WILL NOT BE
AS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE MTNS DUE TO ALL OF
THE REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. ONCE AGAIN...PLAINS MAY BE
TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L80S MOST OF THE PLAINS.

LATER NEXT WEEK...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIF CONTINUES TO ADVECT MSTR INTO
THE SW CONUS. I SHOULD NOTE HOWEVER THAT THERE IS NOT UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT ON THIS AS THE EC SHOWS MORE W-SW FLOW AND THIS SHUNTS THE
BRUNT OF THE MSTR S OF THE FCST AREA. GFS IS MORE PROMISING AS IT
BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. I KEPT SCTD POPS OVER
THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ISOLD TSRA OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAFS SITES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR KALS AS STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PROPAGRATE OFF MTN AREAS IMPACTING KALS STARTING AROUND 2000Z.
HAVE KEPT VCTS OUT OF KCOS AND KPUB TAFS AS CONVECTION IS HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIME STARTING TODAY DUE TO A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND
WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...BUT WILL MONITOR TS DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATE
THE FORECAST IF NECESSARY. STEERING WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE DIRUNAL WIND
CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES. LUKINBEAL


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 041735
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LASTEST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ANY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
22Z AS LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LUKINBEAL

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MORE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL AND SRN NM TODAY. NO BIG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...THROUGH AZ
AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO SRN CO. SO...EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED CAPE AND SHEAR. GREATEST THREAT
FOR SVR WILL BE OVER THE NERN ZONES...GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...CROWLEY...KIOWA...AND NRN BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
SOME BORDERLINE SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND ERN MTS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVE.

H7 TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WITH
SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE
MTN AREAS. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN MCS OVER WRN KS TONIGHT SHOULD SEND SOME
OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NERN ZONES BY EARLY
SUN MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE PRIMARY AREA BEING THE MOUNTAINS.

GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...A RATHER STRONG COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY...WITH DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON MONDAY...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIME FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE.

SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
OVER THE S MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE
FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS DURING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS. THESE VALUES MAY BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT IF CIRRUS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MTN CONVECTION...
MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENGULF THE PLAINS WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...

DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW WITH EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE PLAINS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT ALL OF THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. NAM...EC...GFS ALL SHOW THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE HPC QPF
GRAPHICS DURING THE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. AN INCH OR SO
OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF ALL THE
MTNS IN THE NWS PUB FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...BURN SCAR FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ON THIS DAY...ALONG WITH THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WEST OF BUENA VISTA.

IT WILL BE COOL THIS DAY OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-12F BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TUESDAY...

IT WILL STILL BE MOIST OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH LLVL FLOW WILL NOT BE
AS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE MTNS DUE TO ALL OF
THE REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. ONCE AGAIN...PLAINS MAY BE
TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L80S MOST OF THE PLAINS.

LATER NEXT WEEK...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIF CONTINUES TO ADVECT MSTR INTO
THE SW CONUS. I SHOULD NOTE HOWEVER THAT THERE IS NOT UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT ON THIS AS THE EC SHOWS MORE W-SW FLOW AND THIS SHUNTS THE
BRUNT OF THE MSTR S OF THE FCST AREA. GFS IS MORE PROMISING AS IT
BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. I KEPT SCTD POPS OVER
THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ISOLD TSRA OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAFS SITES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR KALS AS STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PROPAGRATE OFF MTN AREAS IMPACTING KALS STARTING AROUND 2000Z.
HAVE KEPT VCTS OUT OF KCOS AND KPUB TAFS AS CONVECTION IS HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIME STARTING TODAY DUE TO A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND
WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...BUT WILL MONITOR TS DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATE
THE FORECAST IF NECESSARY. STEERING WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE DIRUNAL WIND
CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES. LUKINBEAL


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041735
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LASTEST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ANY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
22Z AS LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LUKINBEAL

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MORE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL AND SRN NM TODAY. NO BIG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...THROUGH AZ
AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO SRN CO. SO...EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED CAPE AND SHEAR. GREATEST THREAT
FOR SVR WILL BE OVER THE NERN ZONES...GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...CROWLEY...KIOWA...AND NRN BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
SOME BORDERLINE SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND ERN MTS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVE.

H7 TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WITH
SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE
MTN AREAS. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN MCS OVER WRN KS TONIGHT SHOULD SEND SOME
OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NERN ZONES BY EARLY
SUN MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE PRIMARY AREA BEING THE MOUNTAINS.

GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...A RATHER STRONG COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY...WITH DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON MONDAY...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIME FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE.

SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
OVER THE S MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE
FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS DURING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS. THESE VALUES MAY BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT IF CIRRUS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MTN CONVECTION...
MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENGULF THE PLAINS WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...

DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW WITH EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE PLAINS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT ALL OF THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. NAM...EC...GFS ALL SHOW THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE HPC QPF
GRAPHICS DURING THE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. AN INCH OR SO
OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF ALL THE
MTNS IN THE NWS PUB FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...BURN SCAR FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ON THIS DAY...ALONG WITH THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WEST OF BUENA VISTA.

IT WILL BE COOL THIS DAY OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-12F BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TUESDAY...

IT WILL STILL BE MOIST OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH LLVL FLOW WILL NOT BE
AS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE MTNS DUE TO ALL OF
THE REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. ONCE AGAIN...PLAINS MAY BE
TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L80S MOST OF THE PLAINS.

LATER NEXT WEEK...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIF CONTINUES TO ADVECT MSTR INTO
THE SW CONUS. I SHOULD NOTE HOWEVER THAT THERE IS NOT UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT ON THIS AS THE EC SHOWS MORE W-SW FLOW AND THIS SHUNTS THE
BRUNT OF THE MSTR S OF THE FCST AREA. GFS IS MORE PROMISING AS IT
BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. I KEPT SCTD POPS OVER
THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ISOLD TSRA OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAFS SITES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR KALS AS STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PROPAGRATE OFF MTN AREAS IMPACTING KALS STARTING AROUND 2000Z.
HAVE KEPT VCTS OUT OF KCOS AND KPUB TAFS AS CONVECTION IS HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIME STARTING TODAY DUE TO A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND
WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...BUT WILL MONITOR TS DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATE
THE FORECAST IF NECESSARY. STEERING WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE DIRUNAL WIND
CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES. LUKINBEAL


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 041612
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1012 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LASTEST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ANY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
22Z AS LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LUKINBEAL

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MORE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL AND SRN NM TODAY. NO BIG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...THROUGH AZ
AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO SRN CO. SO...EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED CAPE AND SHEAR. GREATEST THREAT
FOR SVR WILL BE OVER THE NERN ZONES...GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...CROWLEY...KIOWA...AND NRN BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
SOME BORDERLINE SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND ERN MTS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVE.

H7 TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WITH
SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE
MTN AREAS. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN MCS OVER WRN KS TONIGHT SHOULD SEND SOME
OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NERN ZONES BY EARLY
SUN MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE PRIMARY AREA BEING THE MOUNTAINS.

GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...A RATHER STRONG COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY...WITH DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON MONDAY...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIME FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE.

SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
OVER THE S MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE
FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS DURING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS. THESE VALUES MAY BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT IF CIRRUS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MTN CONVECTION...
MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENGULF THE PLAINS WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...

DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW WITH EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE PLAINS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT ALL OF THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. NAM...EC...GFS ALL SHOW THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE HPC QPF
GRAPHICS DURING THE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. AN INCH OR SO
OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF ALL THE
MTNS IN THE NWS PUB FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...BURN SCAR FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ON THIS DAY...ALONG WITH THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WEST OF BUENA VISTA.

IT WILL BE COOL THIS DAY OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-12F BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TUESDAY...

IT WILL STILL BE MOIST OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH LLVL FLOW WILL NOT BE
AS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE MTNS DUE TO ALL OF
THE REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. ONCE AGAIN...PLAINS MAY BE
TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L80S MOST OF THE PLAINS.

LATER NEXT WEEK...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIF CONTINUES TO ADVECT MSTR INTO
THE SW CONUS. I SHOULD NOTE HOWEVER THAT THERE IS NOT UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT ON THIS AS THE EC SHOWS MORE W-SW FLOW AND THIS SHUNTS THE
BRUNT OF THE MSTR S OF THE FCST AREA. GFS IS MORE PROMISING AS IT
BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. I KEPT SCTD POPS OVER
THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ISOLD TSRA OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE STORMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
EVENING...IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ISOLD OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE MTS. SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR VCTS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z. A
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER NW KS TONIGHT COULD SEND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SERN CO PLAINS....AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ARKANSAS
VALLEY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT IMPACTING KPUB OR KCOS IS LOW.
ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041612
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1012 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LASTEST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ANY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
22Z AS LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LUKINBEAL

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MORE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL AND SRN NM TODAY. NO BIG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...THROUGH AZ
AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO SRN CO. SO...EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED CAPE AND SHEAR. GREATEST THREAT
FOR SVR WILL BE OVER THE NERN ZONES...GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...CROWLEY...KIOWA...AND NRN BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
SOME BORDERLINE SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND ERN MTS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVE.

H7 TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WITH
SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE
MTN AREAS. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN MCS OVER WRN KS TONIGHT SHOULD SEND SOME
OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NERN ZONES BY EARLY
SUN MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE PRIMARY AREA BEING THE MOUNTAINS.

GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...A RATHER STRONG COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY...WITH DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON MONDAY...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIME FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE.

SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
OVER THE S MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE
FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS DURING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS. THESE VALUES MAY BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT IF CIRRUS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MTN CONVECTION...
MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENGULF THE PLAINS WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...

DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW WITH EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE PLAINS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT ALL OF THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. NAM...EC...GFS ALL SHOW THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE HPC QPF
GRAPHICS DURING THE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. AN INCH OR SO
OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF ALL THE
MTNS IN THE NWS PUB FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...BURN SCAR FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ON THIS DAY...ALONG WITH THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WEST OF BUENA VISTA.

IT WILL BE COOL THIS DAY OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-12F BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TUESDAY...

IT WILL STILL BE MOIST OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH LLVL FLOW WILL NOT BE
AS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE MTNS DUE TO ALL OF
THE REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. ONCE AGAIN...PLAINS MAY BE
TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L80S MOST OF THE PLAINS.

LATER NEXT WEEK...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIF CONTINUES TO ADVECT MSTR INTO
THE SW CONUS. I SHOULD NOTE HOWEVER THAT THERE IS NOT UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT ON THIS AS THE EC SHOWS MORE W-SW FLOW AND THIS SHUNTS THE
BRUNT OF THE MSTR S OF THE FCST AREA. GFS IS MORE PROMISING AS IT
BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. I KEPT SCTD POPS OVER
THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ISOLD TSRA OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE STORMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
EVENING...IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ISOLD OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE MTS. SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR VCTS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z. A
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER NW KS TONIGHT COULD SEND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SERN CO PLAINS....AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ARKANSAS
VALLEY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT IMPACTING KPUB OR KCOS IS LOW.
ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 040927
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MORE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL AND SRN NM TODAY. NO BIG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...THROUGH AZ
AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO SRN CO. SO...EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED CAPE AND SHEAR. GREATEST THREAT
FOR SVR WILL BE OVER THE NERN ZONES...GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...CROWLEY...KIOWA...AND NRN BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
SOME BORDERLINE SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND ERN MTS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVE.

H7 TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WITH
SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE
MTN AREAS. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN MCS OVER WRN KS TONIGHT SHOULD SEND SOME
OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NERN ZONES BY EARLY
SUN MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE PRIMARY AREA BEING THE MOUNTAINS.

GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...A RATHER STRONG COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY...WITH DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON MONDAY...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIME FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE.

SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
OVER THE S MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE
FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS DURING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS. THESE VALUES MAY BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT IF CIRRUS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MTN CONVECTION...
MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENGULF THE PLAINS WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...

DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW WITH EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE PLAINS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT ALL OF THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. NAM...EC...GFS ALL SHOW THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE HPC QPF
GRAPHICS DURING THE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. AN INCH OR SO
OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF ALL THE
MTNS IN THE NWS PUB FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...BURN SCAR FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ON THIS DAY...ALONG WITH THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WEST OF BUENA VISTA.

IT WILL BE COOL THIS DAY OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-12F BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TUESDAY...

IT WILL STILL BE MOIST OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH LLVL FLOW WILL NOT BE
AS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE MTNS DUE TO ALL OF
THE REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. ONCE AGAIN...PLAINS MAY BE
TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L80S MOST OF THE PLAINS.

LATER NEXT WEEK...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIF CONTINUES TO ADVECT MSTR INTO
THE SW CONUS. I SHOULD NOTE HOWEVER THAT THERE IS NOT UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT ON THIS AS THE EC SHOWS MORE W-SW FLOW AND THIS SHUNTS THE
BRUNT OF THE MSTR S OF THE FCST AREA. GFS IS MORE PROMISING AS IT
BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. I KEPT SCTD POPS OVER
THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ISOLD TSRA OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE STORMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
EVENING...IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ISOLD OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE MTS. SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR VCTS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z. A
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER NW KS TONIGHT COULD SEND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SERN CO PLAINS....AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ARKANSAS
VALLEY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT IMPACTING KPUB OR KCOS IS LOW.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 040927
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MORE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL AND SRN NM TODAY. NO BIG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...THROUGH AZ
AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO SRN CO. SO...EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED CAPE AND SHEAR. GREATEST THREAT
FOR SVR WILL BE OVER THE NERN ZONES...GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...CROWLEY...KIOWA...AND NRN BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
SOME BORDERLINE SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND ERN MTS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVE.

H7 TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WITH
SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE
MTN AREAS. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN MCS OVER WRN KS TONIGHT SHOULD SEND SOME
OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NERN ZONES BY EARLY
SUN MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE PRIMARY AREA BEING THE MOUNTAINS.

GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...A RATHER STRONG COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY...WITH DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON MONDAY...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIME FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE.

SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
OVER THE S MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE
FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS DURING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS. THESE VALUES MAY BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT IF CIRRUS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MTN CONVECTION...
MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENGULF THE PLAINS WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...

DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW WITH EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE PLAINS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT ALL OF THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. NAM...EC...GFS ALL SHOW THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE HPC QPF
GRAPHICS DURING THE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. AN INCH OR SO
OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF ALL THE
MTNS IN THE NWS PUB FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...BURN SCAR FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ON THIS DAY...ALONG WITH THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WEST OF BUENA VISTA.

IT WILL BE COOL THIS DAY OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-12F BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TUESDAY...

IT WILL STILL BE MOIST OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH LLVL FLOW WILL NOT BE
AS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE MTNS DUE TO ALL OF
THE REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. ONCE AGAIN...PLAINS MAY BE
TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L80S MOST OF THE PLAINS.

LATER NEXT WEEK...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIF CONTINUES TO ADVECT MSTR INTO
THE SW CONUS. I SHOULD NOTE HOWEVER THAT THERE IS NOT UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT ON THIS AS THE EC SHOWS MORE W-SW FLOW AND THIS SHUNTS THE
BRUNT OF THE MSTR S OF THE FCST AREA. GFS IS MORE PROMISING AS IT
BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. I KEPT SCTD POPS OVER
THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ISOLD TSRA OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE STORMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
EVENING...IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ISOLD OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE MTS. SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR VCTS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z. A
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER NW KS TONIGHT COULD SEND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SERN CO PLAINS....AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ARKANSAS
VALLEY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT IMPACTING KPUB OR KCOS IS LOW.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 040927
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MORE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL AND SRN NM TODAY. NO BIG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...THROUGH AZ
AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO SRN CO. SO...EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED CAPE AND SHEAR. GREATEST THREAT
FOR SVR WILL BE OVER THE NERN ZONES...GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...CROWLEY...KIOWA...AND NRN BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
SOME BORDERLINE SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND ERN MTS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVE.

H7 TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WITH
SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE
MTN AREAS. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN MCS OVER WRN KS TONIGHT SHOULD SEND SOME
OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NERN ZONES BY EARLY
SUN MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE PRIMARY AREA BEING THE MOUNTAINS.

GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...A RATHER STRONG COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY...WITH DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON MONDAY...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIME FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE.

SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
OVER THE S MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE
FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS DURING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS. THESE VALUES MAY BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT IF CIRRUS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MTN CONVECTION...
MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENGULF THE PLAINS WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...

DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW WITH EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE PLAINS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT ALL OF THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. NAM...EC...GFS ALL SHOW THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE HPC QPF
GRAPHICS DURING THE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. AN INCH OR SO
OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF ALL THE
MTNS IN THE NWS PUB FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...BURN SCAR FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ON THIS DAY...ALONG WITH THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WEST OF BUENA VISTA.

IT WILL BE COOL THIS DAY OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-12F BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TUESDAY...

IT WILL STILL BE MOIST OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH LLVL FLOW WILL NOT BE
AS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE MTNS DUE TO ALL OF
THE REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. ONCE AGAIN...PLAINS MAY BE
TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L80S MOST OF THE PLAINS.

LATER NEXT WEEK...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIF CONTINUES TO ADVECT MSTR INTO
THE SW CONUS. I SHOULD NOTE HOWEVER THAT THERE IS NOT UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT ON THIS AS THE EC SHOWS MORE W-SW FLOW AND THIS SHUNTS THE
BRUNT OF THE MSTR S OF THE FCST AREA. GFS IS MORE PROMISING AS IT
BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. I KEPT SCTD POPS OVER
THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ISOLD TSRA OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE STORMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
EVENING...IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ISOLD OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE MTS. SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR VCTS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z. A
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER NW KS TONIGHT COULD SEND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SERN CO PLAINS....AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ARKANSAS
VALLEY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT IMPACTING KPUB OR KCOS IS LOW.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 040527
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

NORTHWEST FLOW...COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ARE CREATING 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR...ENOUGH TO GET
STORMS ROTATING...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  SPC
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPES RUNNING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE PLAINS...1000 OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO PLENTY OF
CAPE OUT THERE.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS THE PLAINS INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR
MORE. WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING
AND LIGHTNING ARE OTHER CONCERNS.

PRIMARY THREATS FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL
INCLUDE LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING...HAIL UP TO A HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH.

WE WILL DO IT AGAIN FOR TOMORROW.  MORE HEATING...MORE CAPE AND
SIMILAR SHEAR WILL LIKELY OUTPUT SIMILAR RESULTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS ON SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCE OVER AZ
ROUNDS THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME THAT UPPER TROF IN
CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. SFC LEE TROFFING WILL HELP
DECREASE SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ALOFT AS MONSOON PLUME OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD.  WITH FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH...SUSPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS DAY.  WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL DECREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEARS TO AROUND 25 KTS
OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.  DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT CAPES...SO STORM STRENGTH SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WEAKER THIS DAY.  BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
A THREAT WHICH COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR BURN SCARS...URBAN
AREAS...AND THOSE WITH SATURATED SOILS.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.  STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS
DAY...WITH NAM12 A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...HENCE WETTER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO ON MONDAY...WHILE GFS BRINGS IN THE COLD FRONT A
LITTLE QUICKER STRONGER AND THUS KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MORE
CAPPED FOR MONDAY.  WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AS EASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD NET DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 40
KTS OR SO.  HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW...BUT IF
NAM12 IS CORRECT...THEN PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS COULD GET IN ON THE ACTION.

UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST TUES AND WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
THE SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM THE MONSOON OVER CO THROUGH THESE DAYS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY MAINTAIN SOME 50 DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR/LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. DEEP LAYERS SHEARS WILL
BE DECREASING AGAIN...BUT PROBABLY STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LESS SHEAR AND LOWER DEW
POINTS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH EVEN
FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THESE DAYS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS IN BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SO
SHOULD SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND RETURN. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DIMINISHING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22Z-00Z...THEN SPORADIC
MVFR CONDITIONS AS DIURNAL CONVECTION FORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 040527
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

NORTHWEST FLOW...COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ARE CREATING 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR...ENOUGH TO GET
STORMS ROTATING...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  SPC
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPES RUNNING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE PLAINS...1000 OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO PLENTY OF
CAPE OUT THERE.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS THE PLAINS INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR
MORE. WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING
AND LIGHTNING ARE OTHER CONCERNS.

PRIMARY THREATS FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL
INCLUDE LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING...HAIL UP TO A HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH.

WE WILL DO IT AGAIN FOR TOMORROW.  MORE HEATING...MORE CAPE AND
SIMILAR SHEAR WILL LIKELY OUTPUT SIMILAR RESULTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS ON SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCE OVER AZ
ROUNDS THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME THAT UPPER TROF IN
CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. SFC LEE TROFFING WILL HELP
DECREASE SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ALOFT AS MONSOON PLUME OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD.  WITH FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH...SUSPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS DAY.  WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL DECREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEARS TO AROUND 25 KTS
OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.  DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT CAPES...SO STORM STRENGTH SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WEAKER THIS DAY.  BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
A THREAT WHICH COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR BURN SCARS...URBAN
AREAS...AND THOSE WITH SATURATED SOILS.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.  STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS
DAY...WITH NAM12 A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...HENCE WETTER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO ON MONDAY...WHILE GFS BRINGS IN THE COLD FRONT A
LITTLE QUICKER STRONGER AND THUS KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MORE
CAPPED FOR MONDAY.  WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AS EASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD NET DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 40
KTS OR SO.  HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW...BUT IF
NAM12 IS CORRECT...THEN PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS COULD GET IN ON THE ACTION.

UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST TUES AND WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
THE SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM THE MONSOON OVER CO THROUGH THESE DAYS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY MAINTAIN SOME 50 DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR/LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. DEEP LAYERS SHEARS WILL
BE DECREASING AGAIN...BUT PROBABLY STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LESS SHEAR AND LOWER DEW
POINTS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH EVEN
FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THESE DAYS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS IN BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SO
SHOULD SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND RETURN. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DIMINISHING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22Z-00Z...THEN SPORADIC
MVFR CONDITIONS AS DIURNAL CONVECTION FORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 032058
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
258 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

NORTHWEST FLOW...COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ARE CREATING 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR...ENOUGH TO GET
STORMS ROTATING...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  SPC
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPES RUNNING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE PLAINS...1000 OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO PLENTY OF
CAPE OUT THERE.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS THE PLAINS INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR
MORE. WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING
AND LIGHTNING ARE OTHER CONCERNS.

PRIMARY THREATS FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL
INCLUDE LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING...HAIL UP TO A HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH.

WE WILL DO IT AGAIN FOR TOMORROW.  MORE HEATING...MORE CAPE AND
SIMILAR SHEAR WILL LIKELY OUTPUT SIMILAR RESULTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS ON SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCE OVER AZ
ROUNDS THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME THAT UPPER TROF IN
CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. SFC LEE TROFFING WILL HELP
DECREASE SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ALOFT AS MONSOON PLUME OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD.  WITH FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH...SUSPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS DAY.  WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL DECREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEARS TO AROUND 25 KTS
OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.  DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT CAPES...SO STORM STRENGTH SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WEAKER THIS DAY.  BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
A THREAT WHICH COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR BURN SCARS...URBAN
AREAS...AND THOSE WITH SATURATED SOILS.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.  STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS
DAY...WITH NAM12 A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...HENCE WETTER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO ON MONDAY...WHILE GFS BRINGS IN THE COLD FRONT A
LITTLE QUICKER STRONGER AND THUS KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MORE
CAPPED FOR MONDAY.  WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AS EASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD NET DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 40
KTS OR SO.  HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW...BUT IF
NAM12 IS CORRECT...THEN PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS COULD GET IN ON THE ACTION.

UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST TUES AND WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
THE SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM THE MONSOON OVER CO THROUGH THESE DAYS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY MAINTAIN SOME 50 DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR/LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. DEEP LAYERS SHEARS WILL
BE DECREASING AGAIN...BUT PROBABLY STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LESS SHEAR AND LOWER DEW
POINTS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH EVEN
FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THESE DAYS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS IN BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SO
SHOULD SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND RETURN. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH TSTMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL UP TO HALF
AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL AROUND 06Z
WHEN RADIATIVE PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT...DIMINISHING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN MTN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. AL/LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 032058
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
258 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

NORTHWEST FLOW...COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ARE CREATING 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR...ENOUGH TO GET
STORMS ROTATING...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  SPC
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPES RUNNING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE PLAINS...1000 OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO PLENTY OF
CAPE OUT THERE.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS THE PLAINS INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR
MORE. WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING
AND LIGHTNING ARE OTHER CONCERNS.

PRIMARY THREATS FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL
INCLUDE LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING...HAIL UP TO A HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH.

WE WILL DO IT AGAIN FOR TOMORROW.  MORE HEATING...MORE CAPE AND
SIMILAR SHEAR WILL LIKELY OUTPUT SIMILAR RESULTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS ON SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCE OVER AZ
ROUNDS THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME THAT UPPER TROF IN
CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. SFC LEE TROFFING WILL HELP
DECREASE SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ALOFT AS MONSOON PLUME OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD.  WITH FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH...SUSPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS DAY.  WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL DECREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEARS TO AROUND 25 KTS
OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.  DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT CAPES...SO STORM STRENGTH SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WEAKER THIS DAY.  BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
A THREAT WHICH COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR BURN SCARS...URBAN
AREAS...AND THOSE WITH SATURATED SOILS.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.  STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS
DAY...WITH NAM12 A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...HENCE WETTER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO ON MONDAY...WHILE GFS BRINGS IN THE COLD FRONT A
LITTLE QUICKER STRONGER AND THUS KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MORE
CAPPED FOR MONDAY.  WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AS EASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD NET DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 40
KTS OR SO.  HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW...BUT IF
NAM12 IS CORRECT...THEN PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS COULD GET IN ON THE ACTION.

UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST TUES AND WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
THE SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM THE MONSOON OVER CO THROUGH THESE DAYS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY MAINTAIN SOME 50 DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR/LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. DEEP LAYERS SHEARS WILL
BE DECREASING AGAIN...BUT PROBABLY STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LESS SHEAR AND LOWER DEW
POINTS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH EVEN
FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THESE DAYS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS IN BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SO
SHOULD SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND RETURN. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH TSTMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL UP TO HALF
AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL AROUND 06Z
WHEN RADIATIVE PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT...DIMINISHING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN MTN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. AL/LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 032058
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
258 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

NORTHWEST FLOW...COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ARE CREATING 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR...ENOUGH TO GET
STORMS ROTATING...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  SPC
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPES RUNNING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE PLAINS...1000 OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO PLENTY OF
CAPE OUT THERE.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS THE PLAINS INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR
MORE. WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING
AND LIGHTNING ARE OTHER CONCERNS.

PRIMARY THREATS FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL
INCLUDE LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING...HAIL UP TO A HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH.

WE WILL DO IT AGAIN FOR TOMORROW.  MORE HEATING...MORE CAPE AND
SIMILAR SHEAR WILL LIKELY OUTPUT SIMILAR RESULTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS ON SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCE OVER AZ
ROUNDS THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME THAT UPPER TROF IN
CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. SFC LEE TROFFING WILL HELP
DECREASE SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ALOFT AS MONSOON PLUME OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD.  WITH FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH...SUSPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS DAY.  WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL DECREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEARS TO AROUND 25 KTS
OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.  DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT CAPES...SO STORM STRENGTH SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WEAKER THIS DAY.  BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
A THREAT WHICH COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR BURN SCARS...URBAN
AREAS...AND THOSE WITH SATURATED SOILS.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.  STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS
DAY...WITH NAM12 A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...HENCE WETTER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO ON MONDAY...WHILE GFS BRINGS IN THE COLD FRONT A
LITTLE QUICKER STRONGER AND THUS KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MORE
CAPPED FOR MONDAY.  WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AS EASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD NET DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 40
KTS OR SO.  HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW...BUT IF
NAM12 IS CORRECT...THEN PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS COULD GET IN ON THE ACTION.

UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST TUES AND WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
THE SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM THE MONSOON OVER CO THROUGH THESE DAYS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY MAINTAIN SOME 50 DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR/LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. DEEP LAYERS SHEARS WILL
BE DECREASING AGAIN...BUT PROBABLY STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LESS SHEAR AND LOWER DEW
POINTS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH EVEN
FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THESE DAYS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS IN BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SO
SHOULD SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND RETURN. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH TSTMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL UP TO HALF
AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL AROUND 06Z
WHEN RADIATIVE PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT...DIMINISHING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN MTN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. AL/LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 032058
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
258 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

NORTHWEST FLOW...COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ARE CREATING 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR...ENOUGH TO GET
STORMS ROTATING...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  SPC
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPES RUNNING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE PLAINS...1000 OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO PLENTY OF
CAPE OUT THERE.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS THE PLAINS INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR
MORE. WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING
AND LIGHTNING ARE OTHER CONCERNS.

PRIMARY THREATS FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL
INCLUDE LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING...HAIL UP TO A HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH.

WE WILL DO IT AGAIN FOR TOMORROW.  MORE HEATING...MORE CAPE AND
SIMILAR SHEAR WILL LIKELY OUTPUT SIMILAR RESULTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS ON SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCE OVER AZ
ROUNDS THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME THAT UPPER TROF IN
CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. SFC LEE TROFFING WILL HELP
DECREASE SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ALOFT AS MONSOON PLUME OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD.  WITH FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH...SUSPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS DAY.  WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL DECREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEARS TO AROUND 25 KTS
OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.  DEW POINTS DROP OFF INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT CAPES...SO STORM STRENGTH SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WEAKER THIS DAY.  BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
A THREAT WHICH COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR BURN SCARS...URBAN
AREAS...AND THOSE WITH SATURATED SOILS.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.  STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS
DAY...WITH NAM12 A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...HENCE WETTER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO ON MONDAY...WHILE GFS BRINGS IN THE COLD FRONT A
LITTLE QUICKER STRONGER AND THUS KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MORE
CAPPED FOR MONDAY.  WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AS EASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD NET DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 40
KTS OR SO.  HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW...BUT IF
NAM12 IS CORRECT...THEN PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS COULD GET IN ON THE ACTION.

UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST TUES AND WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
THE SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM THE MONSOON OVER CO THROUGH THESE DAYS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY MAINTAIN SOME 50 DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR/LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. DEEP LAYERS SHEARS WILL
BE DECREASING AGAIN...BUT PROBABLY STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LESS SHEAR AND LOWER DEW
POINTS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH EVEN
FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THESE DAYS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS IN BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SO
SHOULD SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND RETURN. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH TSTMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL UP TO HALF
AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL AROUND 06Z
WHEN RADIATIVE PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT...DIMINISHING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN MTN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. AL/LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031914
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
114 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED POP GRIDS TO REFLECT LASTEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALSO LOADED IN LATEST OBS
DATA INTO THE GRIDS. AT THIS TIME A FEW -TSRA ARE MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS JUST TO THE WEST OF SALIDA...WITH A FEW TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE MTNS. THE SPC HAS
ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WEATHER FOR THE SE PLAINS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF TSRA MOVING SE THROUGH THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TOWARDS ALAMOSA. LOADED IN LATEST HIGH RES MODEL
DATA AND MOST RECENT OBS INTO THE GRIDS. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAFS SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. LUKINBEAL


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031914
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
114 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED POP GRIDS TO REFLECT LASTEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALSO LOADED IN LATEST OBS
DATA INTO THE GRIDS. AT THIS TIME A FEW -TSRA ARE MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS JUST TO THE WEST OF SALIDA...WITH A FEW TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE MTNS. THE SPC HAS
ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WEATHER FOR THE SE PLAINS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF TSRA MOVING SE THROUGH THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TOWARDS ALAMOSA. LOADED IN LATEST HIGH RES MODEL
DATA AND MOST RECENT OBS INTO THE GRIDS. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAFS SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. LUKINBEAL


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031914
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
114 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED POP GRIDS TO REFLECT LASTEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALSO LOADED IN LATEST OBS
DATA INTO THE GRIDS. AT THIS TIME A FEW -TSRA ARE MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS JUST TO THE WEST OF SALIDA...WITH A FEW TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE MTNS. THE SPC HAS
ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WEATHER FOR THE SE PLAINS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF TSRA MOVING SE THROUGH THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TOWARDS ALAMOSA. LOADED IN LATEST HIGH RES MODEL
DATA AND MOST RECENT OBS INTO THE GRIDS. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAFS SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. LUKINBEAL


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031739
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF TSRA MOVING SE THROUGH THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TOWARDS ALAMOSA. LOADED IN LATEST HIGH RES MODEL
DATA AND MOST RECENT OBS INTO THE GRIDS. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAFS SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. LUKINBEAL

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031739
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF TSRA MOVING SE THROUGH THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TOWARDS ALAMOSA. LOADED IN LATEST HIGH RES MODEL
DATA AND MOST RECENT OBS INTO THE GRIDS. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAFS SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. LUKINBEAL

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031623
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF TSRA MOVING SE THROUGH THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TOWARDS ALAMOSA. LOADED IN LATEST HIGH RES MODEL
DATA AND MOST RECENT OBS INTO THE GRIDS. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS  WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031623
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF TSRA MOVING SE THROUGH THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TOWARDS ALAMOSA. LOADED IN LATEST HIGH RES MODEL
DATA AND MOST RECENT OBS INTO THE GRIDS. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS  WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031623
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF TSRA MOVING SE THROUGH THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TOWARDS ALAMOSA. LOADED IN LATEST HIGH RES MODEL
DATA AND MOST RECENT OBS INTO THE GRIDS. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS  WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031310
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
710 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS  WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031310
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
710 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS  WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031310
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
710 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS  WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031310
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
710 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS  WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031024
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
424 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS  WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031024
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
424 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS  WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031024
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
424 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS  WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031024
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
424 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS  WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 030510
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST POP TRENDS AND LINE OF STORMS HEADING SOUTH
FROM THE DENVER AREA. UPDATED THE FIRE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY.  THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030510
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST POP TRENDS AND LINE OF STORMS HEADING SOUTH
FROM THE DENVER AREA. UPDATED THE FIRE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY.  THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 030510
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST POP TRENDS AND LINE OF STORMS HEADING SOUTH
FROM THE DENVER AREA. UPDATED THE FIRE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY.  THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030510
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST POP TRENDS AND LINE OF STORMS HEADING SOUTH
FROM THE DENVER AREA. UPDATED THE FIRE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY.  THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 030144
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
744 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST POP TRENDS AND LINE OF STORMS HEADING SOUTH
FROM THE DENVER AREA. UPDATED THE FIRE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY.  THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 030144
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
744 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST POP TRENDS AND LINE OF STORMS HEADING SOUTH
FROM THE DENVER AREA. UPDATED THE FIRE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY.  THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030144
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
744 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST POP TRENDS AND LINE OF STORMS HEADING SOUTH
FROM THE DENVER AREA. UPDATED THE FIRE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY.  THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 030144
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
744 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST POP TRENDS AND LINE OF STORMS HEADING SOUTH
FROM THE DENVER AREA. UPDATED THE FIRE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY.  THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 022126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY.  THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 022126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY.  THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1133 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...MAIN BAND OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SW MTS AND NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE
DROPPED POPS A BIT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL MID
AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL PUSH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO N BY MID DAY...AROUND 18Z FOR
OUR NRN ZONES...THEN VEERING TO THE E AND SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS EVE. THIS WILL YIELD CAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE. BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS. SO...SVR PARAMETERS WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EWD...BUT SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT HIGHS YESTERDAY EXCEEDED FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS...HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGH
TEMPS.

STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS OVER THE SE PLAINS
THIS EVE. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO WIND DOWN...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT
POPS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SE AND EXIT INTO THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY FRI
MORNING. IF THE EXPECTED MCS LINGERS NR THE ARKANSAS RIVER
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME RENEWED CONCERNS FOR AREAL
FLOODING. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO FIR
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...KEEPING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS PERSISTING AND A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR/SE PLAINS.
PLENTIFUL CAPE OF 1-2K J/KG AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...THOUGH LACK OF ANY
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LEE SURFACE
TROUGH RETURNING TO THE PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCT MTN/VALLEY CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH
COVERAGE MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUN AS HEIGHTS BUILD. CONVECTION
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS
CONCEPTUALLY...WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW WOULD EXPECT A
DOWNTURN IN TSRA CHANCES IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE KS BORDER.
STILL...WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY...TOUGH
TO ELIMINATE CONVECTION IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA...SO WILL KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUESSING SUN AFTERNOON WILL
SEE LOWEST CHANCE OF STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD FROM FRI
THROUGH SUN...WITH WARMEST READINGS MOST LOCATIONS OCCURRING SUN
AFTERNOON.

STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT...WITH RENEWED MOIST
UPSLOPE MON AND TUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL RAMP UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PLAINS AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SLOSH BACK WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. WESTERN MOUNTAINS/VALLEY WILL REMAIN MOIST AS WELL WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. AIR MASS DRIES
SOMEWHAT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED/THU AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY...THOUGH STILL NOT NEARLY ENOUGH DRYING TO
ELIMINATE DAILY TSRA FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER A
COUPLE RATHER COOL DAYS MON/TUE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TOWARD
SEASONAL AVERAGES MID- WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR
AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE STRONG AT TIMES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 021733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1133 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...MAIN BAND OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SW MTS AND NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE
DROPPED POPS A BIT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL MID
AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL PUSH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO N BY MID DAY...AROUND 18Z FOR
OUR NRN ZONES...THEN VEERING TO THE E AND SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS EVE. THIS WILL YIELD CAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE. BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS. SO...SVR PARAMETERS WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EWD...BUT SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT HIGHS YESTERDAY EXCEEDED FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS...HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGH
TEMPS.

STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS OVER THE SE PLAINS
THIS EVE. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO WIND DOWN...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT
POPS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SE AND EXIT INTO THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY FRI
MORNING. IF THE EXPECTED MCS LINGERS NR THE ARKANSAS RIVER
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME RENEWED CONCERNS FOR AREAL
FLOODING. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO FIR
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...KEEPING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS PERSISTING AND A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR/SE PLAINS.
PLENTIFUL CAPE OF 1-2K J/KG AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...THOUGH LACK OF ANY
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LEE SURFACE
TROUGH RETURNING TO THE PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCT MTN/VALLEY CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH
COVERAGE MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUN AS HEIGHTS BUILD. CONVECTION
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS
CONCEPTUALLY...WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW WOULD EXPECT A
DOWNTURN IN TSRA CHANCES IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE KS BORDER.
STILL...WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY...TOUGH
TO ELIMINATE CONVECTION IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA...SO WILL KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUESSING SUN AFTERNOON WILL
SEE LOWEST CHANCE OF STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD FROM FRI
THROUGH SUN...WITH WARMEST READINGS MOST LOCATIONS OCCURRING SUN
AFTERNOON.

STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT...WITH RENEWED MOIST
UPSLOPE MON AND TUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL RAMP UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PLAINS AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SLOSH BACK WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. WESTERN MOUNTAINS/VALLEY WILL REMAIN MOIST AS WELL WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. AIR MASS DRIES
SOMEWHAT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED/THU AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY...THOUGH STILL NOT NEARLY ENOUGH DRYING TO
ELIMINATE DAILY TSRA FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER A
COUPLE RATHER COOL DAYS MON/TUE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TOWARD
SEASONAL AVERAGES MID- WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR
AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE STRONG AT TIMES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1133 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...MAIN BAND OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SW MTS AND NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE
DROPPED POPS A BIT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL MID
AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL PUSH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO N BY MID DAY...AROUND 18Z FOR
OUR NRN ZONES...THEN VEERING TO THE E AND SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS EVE. THIS WILL YIELD CAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE. BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS. SO...SVR PARAMETERS WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EWD...BUT SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT HIGHS YESTERDAY EXCEEDED FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS...HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGH
TEMPS.

STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS OVER THE SE PLAINS
THIS EVE. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO WIND DOWN...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT
POPS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SE AND EXIT INTO THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY FRI
MORNING. IF THE EXPECTED MCS LINGERS NR THE ARKANSAS RIVER
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME RENEWED CONCERNS FOR AREAL
FLOODING. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO FIR
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...KEEPING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS PERSISTING AND A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR/SE PLAINS.
PLENTIFUL CAPE OF 1-2K J/KG AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...THOUGH LACK OF ANY
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LEE SURFACE
TROUGH RETURNING TO THE PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCT MTN/VALLEY CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH
COVERAGE MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUN AS HEIGHTS BUILD. CONVECTION
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS
CONCEPTUALLY...WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW WOULD EXPECT A
DOWNTURN IN TSRA CHANCES IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE KS BORDER.
STILL...WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY...TOUGH
TO ELIMINATE CONVECTION IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA...SO WILL KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUESSING SUN AFTERNOON WILL
SEE LOWEST CHANCE OF STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD FROM FRI
THROUGH SUN...WITH WARMEST READINGS MOST LOCATIONS OCCURRING SUN
AFTERNOON.

STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT...WITH RENEWED MOIST
UPSLOPE MON AND TUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL RAMP UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PLAINS AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SLOSH BACK WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. WESTERN MOUNTAINS/VALLEY WILL REMAIN MOIST AS WELL WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. AIR MASS DRIES
SOMEWHAT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED/THU AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY...THOUGH STILL NOT NEARLY ENOUGH DRYING TO
ELIMINATE DAILY TSRA FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER A
COUPLE RATHER COOL DAYS MON/TUE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TOWARD
SEASONAL AVERAGES MID- WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR
AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE STRONG AT TIMES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...MAIN BAND OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SW MTS AND NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE
DROPPED POPS A BIT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL MID
AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL PUSH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO N BY MID DAY...AROUND 18Z FOR
OUR NRN ZONES...THEN VEERING TO THE E AND SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS EVE. THIS WILL YIELD CAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE. BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS. SO...SVR PARAMETERS WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EWD...BUT SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT HIGHS YESTERDAY EXCEEDED FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS...HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGH
TEMPS.

STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS OVER THE SE PLAINS
THIS EVE. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO WIND DOWN...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT
POPS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SE AND EXIT INTO THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY FRI
MORNING. IF THE EXPECTED MCS LINGERS NR THE ARKANSAS RIVER
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME RENEWED CONCERNS FOR AREAL
FLOODING. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO FIR
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...KEEPING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS PERSISTING AND A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR/SE PLAINS.
PLENTIFUL CAPE OF 1-2K J/KG AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...THOUGH LACK OF ANY
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LEE SURFACE
TROUGH RETURNING TO THE PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCT MTN/VALLEY CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH
COVERAGE MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUN AS HEIGHTS BUILD. CONVECTION
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS
CONCEPTUALLY...WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW WOULD EXPECT A
DOWNTURN IN TSRA CHANCES IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE KS BORDER.
STILL...WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY...TOUGH
TO ELIMINATE CONVECTION IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA...SO WILL KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUESSING SUN AFTERNOON WILL
SEE LOWEST CHANCE OF STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD FROM FRI
THROUGH SUN...WITH WARMEST READINGS MOST LOCATIONS OCCURRING SUN
AFTERNOON.

STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT...WITH RENEWED MOIST
UPSLOPE MON AND TUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL RAMP UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PLAINS AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SLOSH BACK WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. WESTERN MOUNTAINS/VALLEY WILL REMAIN MOIST AS WELL WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. AIR MASS DRIES
SOMEWHAT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED/THU AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY...THOUGH STILL NOT NEARLY ENOUGH DRYING TO
ELIMINATE DAILY TSRA FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER A
COUPLE RATHER COOL DAYS MON/TUE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TOWARD
SEASONAL AVERAGES MID- WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD TS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z...AS STORMS DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER
THE MTS AND SPREAD E AND SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME PERIODS
OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO
TS. STORMS ALONG I-25 WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
HAIL...POSSIBLY ONE INCH OR GREATER FOR THE STRONGEST CELLS. STORMS
SHOULD MOVE S OF HGWY 50 FROM 03-06Z TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO NM
AND TX LATE TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER OVER THE
SE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 021004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...MAIN BAND OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SW MTS AND NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE
DROPPED POPS A BIT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL MID
AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL PUSH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO N BY MID DAY...AROUND 18Z FOR
OUR NRN ZONES...THEN VEERING TO THE E AND SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS EVE. THIS WILL YIELD CAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE. BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS. SO...SVR PARAMETERS WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EWD...BUT SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT HIGHS YESTERDAY EXCEEDED FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS...HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGH
TEMPS.

STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS OVER THE SE PLAINS
THIS EVE. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO WIND DOWN...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT
POPS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SE AND EXIT INTO THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY FRI
MORNING. IF THE EXPECTED MCS LINGERS NR THE ARKANSAS RIVER
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME RENEWED CONCERNS FOR AREAL
FLOODING. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO FIR
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...KEEPING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS PERSISTING AND A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR/SE PLAINS.
PLENTIFUL CAPE OF 1-2K J/KG AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...THOUGH LACK OF ANY
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LEE SURFACE
TROUGH RETURNING TO THE PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCT MTN/VALLEY CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH
COVERAGE MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUN AS HEIGHTS BUILD. CONVECTION
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS
CONCEPTUALLY...WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW WOULD EXPECT A
DOWNTURN IN TSRA CHANCES IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE KS BORDER.
STILL...WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY...TOUGH
TO ELIMINATE CONVECTION IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA...SO WILL KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUESSING SUN AFTERNOON WILL
SEE LOWEST CHANCE OF STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD FROM FRI
THROUGH SUN...WITH WARMEST READINGS MOST LOCATIONS OCCURRING SUN
AFTERNOON.

STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT...WITH RENEWED MOIST
UPSLOPE MON AND TUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL RAMP UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PLAINS AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SLOSH BACK WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. WESTERN MOUNTAINS/VALLEY WILL REMAIN MOIST AS WELL WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. AIR MASS DRIES
SOMEWHAT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED/THU AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY...THOUGH STILL NOT NEARLY ENOUGH DRYING TO
ELIMINATE DAILY TSRA FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER A
COUPLE RATHER COOL DAYS MON/TUE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TOWARD
SEASONAL AVERAGES MID- WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD TS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z...AS STORMS DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER
THE MTS AND SPREAD E AND SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME PERIODS
OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO
TS. STORMS ALONG I-25 WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
HAIL...POSSIBLY ONE INCH OR GREATER FOR THE STRONGEST CELLS. STORMS
SHOULD MOVE S OF HGWY 50 FROM 03-06Z TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO NM
AND TX LATE TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER OVER THE
SE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...MAIN BAND OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SW MTS AND NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE
DROPPED POPS A BIT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL MID
AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL PUSH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO N BY MID DAY...AROUND 18Z FOR
OUR NRN ZONES...THEN VEERING TO THE E AND SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS EVE. THIS WILL YIELD CAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE. BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS. SO...SVR PARAMETERS WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EWD...BUT SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT HIGHS YESTERDAY EXCEEDED FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS...HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGH
TEMPS.

STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS OVER THE SE PLAINS
THIS EVE. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO WIND DOWN...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT
POPS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SE AND EXIT INTO THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY FRI
MORNING. IF THE EXPECTED MCS LINGERS NR THE ARKANSAS RIVER
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME RENEWED CONCERNS FOR AREAL
FLOODING. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO FIR
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...KEEPING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS PERSISTING AND A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR/SE PLAINS.
PLENTIFUL CAPE OF 1-2K J/KG AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...THOUGH LACK OF ANY
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LEE SURFACE
TROUGH RETURNING TO THE PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCT MTN/VALLEY CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH
COVERAGE MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUN AS HEIGHTS BUILD. CONVECTION
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS
CONCEPTUALLY...WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW WOULD EXPECT A
DOWNTURN IN TSRA CHANCES IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE KS BORDER.
STILL...WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY...TOUGH
TO ELIMINATE CONVECTION IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA...SO WILL KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUESSING SUN AFTERNOON WILL
SEE LOWEST CHANCE OF STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD FROM FRI
THROUGH SUN...WITH WARMEST READINGS MOST LOCATIONS OCCURRING SUN
AFTERNOON.

STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT...WITH RENEWED MOIST
UPSLOPE MON AND TUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL RAMP UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PLAINS AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SLOSH BACK WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. WESTERN MOUNTAINS/VALLEY WILL REMAIN MOIST AS WELL WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. AIR MASS DRIES
SOMEWHAT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED/THU AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY...THOUGH STILL NOT NEARLY ENOUGH DRYING TO
ELIMINATE DAILY TSRA FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER A
COUPLE RATHER COOL DAYS MON/TUE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TOWARD
SEASONAL AVERAGES MID- WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD TS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z...AS STORMS DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER
THE MTS AND SPREAD E AND SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME PERIODS
OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO
TS. STORMS ALONG I-25 WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
HAIL...POSSIBLY ONE INCH OR GREATER FOR THE STRONGEST CELLS. STORMS
SHOULD MOVE S OF HGWY 50 FROM 03-06Z TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO NM
AND TX LATE TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER OVER THE
SE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...MAIN BAND OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SW MTS AND NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE
DROPPED POPS A BIT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL MID
AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL PUSH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO N BY MID DAY...AROUND 18Z FOR
OUR NRN ZONES...THEN VEERING TO THE E AND SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS EVE. THIS WILL YIELD CAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE. BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS. SO...SVR PARAMETERS WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EWD...BUT SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT HIGHS YESTERDAY EXCEEDED FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS...HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGH
TEMPS.

STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS OVER THE SE PLAINS
THIS EVE. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO WIND DOWN...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT
POPS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SE AND EXIT INTO THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY FRI
MORNING. IF THE EXPECTED MCS LINGERS NR THE ARKANSAS RIVER
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME RENEWED CONCERNS FOR AREAL
FLOODING. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO FIR
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...KEEPING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS PERSISTING AND A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR/SE PLAINS.
PLENTIFUL CAPE OF 1-2K J/KG AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...THOUGH LACK OF ANY
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LEE SURFACE
TROUGH RETURNING TO THE PLAINS SAT INTO SUN. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCT MTN/VALLEY CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...THOUGH
COVERAGE MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUN AS HEIGHTS BUILD. CONVECTION
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS
CONCEPTUALLY...WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW WOULD EXPECT A
DOWNTURN IN TSRA CHANCES IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE KS BORDER.
STILL...WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY...TOUGH
TO ELIMINATE CONVECTION IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA...SO WILL KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUESSING SUN AFTERNOON WILL
SEE LOWEST CHANCE OF STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD FROM FRI
THROUGH SUN...WITH WARMEST READINGS MOST LOCATIONS OCCURRING SUN
AFTERNOON.

STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT...WITH RENEWED MOIST
UPSLOPE MON AND TUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL RAMP UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PLAINS AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SLOSH BACK WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. WESTERN MOUNTAINS/VALLEY WILL REMAIN MOIST AS WELL WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. AIR MASS DRIES
SOMEWHAT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED/THU AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY...THOUGH STILL NOT NEARLY ENOUGH DRYING TO
ELIMINATE DAILY TSRA FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER A
COUPLE RATHER COOL DAYS MON/TUE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TOWARD
SEASONAL AVERAGES MID- WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD TS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z...AS STORMS DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER
THE MTS AND SPREAD E AND SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME PERIODS
OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO
TS. STORMS ALONG I-25 WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
HAIL...POSSIBLY ONE INCH OR GREATER FOR THE STRONGEST CELLS. STORMS
SHOULD MOVE S OF HGWY 50 FROM 03-06Z TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO NM
AND TX LATE TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER OVER THE
SE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 020525
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1125 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS THIS EVENING

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WHILE
INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT HAIL. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS PUSH TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH A VERY
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT
WILL PUSH IN MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESPONDS WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OVER THE PALMER DVD IN THE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS TO THE SE THEY WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE JUICIER AIR AND GREATER SHEAR...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH
PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND DETERMINING
WHERE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UTAH/NEVADA REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NEXT STRONGER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH THE DEEPEST
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTRUSIONS PROJECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE(STRONGER) SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...ELEVATED
SHEARS/CAPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER(OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE)...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL BE NOTED OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOCALLY RAIN WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHILE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM READINGS EXPECTED
DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE A CIG IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES WHICH COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 020525
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1125 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS THIS EVENING

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WHILE
INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT HAIL. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS PUSH TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH A VERY
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT
WILL PUSH IN MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESPONDS WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OVER THE PALMER DVD IN THE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS TO THE SE THEY WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE JUICIER AIR AND GREATER SHEAR...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH
PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND DETERMINING
WHERE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UTAH/NEVADA REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NEXT STRONGER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH THE DEEPEST
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTRUSIONS PROJECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE(STRONGER) SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...ELEVATED
SHEARS/CAPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER(OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE)...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL BE NOTED OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOCALLY RAIN WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHILE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM READINGS EXPECTED
DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE A CIG IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES WHICH COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020205
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
805 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS THIS EVENING

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WHILE
INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT HAIL. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS PUSH TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH A VERY
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT
WILL PUSH IN MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESPONDS WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OVER THE PALMER DVD IN THE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS TO THE SE THEY WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE JUICIER AIR AND GREATER SHEAR...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH
PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND DETERMINING
WHERE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UTAH/NEVADA REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NEXT STRONGER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH THE DEEPEST
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTRUSIONS PROJECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE(STRONGER) SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...ELEVATED
SHEARS/CAPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER(OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE)...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL BE NOTED OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOCALLY RAIN WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHILE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM READINGS EXPECTED
DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...EXPECT MVFR TO INTERMITTENT
IFR CONDITIONS FROM  UNTIL 06Z WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONGER STORMS. AFTER
06Z AND UNTIL 18Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 020205
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
805 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS THIS EVENING

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WHILE
INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT HAIL. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS PUSH TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH A VERY
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT
WILL PUSH IN MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESPONDS WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OVER THE PALMER DVD IN THE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS TO THE SE THEY WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE JUICIER AIR AND GREATER SHEAR...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH
PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND DETERMINING
WHERE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UTAH/NEVADA REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NEXT STRONGER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH THE DEEPEST
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTRUSIONS PROJECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE(STRONGER) SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...ELEVATED
SHEARS/CAPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER(OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE)...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL BE NOTED OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOCALLY RAIN WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHILE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM READINGS EXPECTED
DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...EXPECT MVFR TO INTERMITTENT
IFR CONDITIONS FROM  UNTIL 06Z WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONGER STORMS. AFTER
06Z AND UNTIL 18Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 012147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
347 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WHILE
INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT HAIL. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS PUSH TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH A VERY
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT
WILL PUSH IN MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESPONDS WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OVER THE PALMER DVD IN THE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS TO THE SE THEY WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE JUICIER AIR AND GREATER SHEAR...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH
PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND DETERMINING
WHERE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UTAH/NEVADA REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NEXT STRONGER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH THE DEEPEST
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTRUSIONS PROJECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE(STRONGER) SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...ELEVATED
SHEARS/CAPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER(OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE)...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL BE NOTED OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOCALLY RAIN WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHILE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM READINGS EXPECTED
DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...EXPECT MVFR TO INTERMITTENT
IFR CONDITIONS FROM  UNTIL 06Z WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONGER STORMS. AFTER
06Z AND UNTIL 18Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 012147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
347 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WHILE
INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT HAIL. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS PUSH TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH A VERY
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT
WILL PUSH IN MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESPONDS WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OVER THE PALMER DVD IN THE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS TO THE SE THEY WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE JUICIER AIR AND GREATER SHEAR...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH
PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND DETERMINING
WHERE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UTAH/NEVADA REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NEXT STRONGER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH THE DEEPEST
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTRUSIONS PROJECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE(STRONGER) SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...ELEVATED
SHEARS/CAPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER(OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE)...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL BE NOTED OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOCALLY RAIN WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHILE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM READINGS EXPECTED
DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...EXPECT MVFR TO INTERMITTENT
IFR CONDITIONS FROM  UNTIL 06Z WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONGER STORMS. AFTER
06Z AND UNTIL 18Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





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