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000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND TIMING WITH THE
ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE ENERGY ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND FASTEST DIGGING IT
ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND CANADIAN RUNS IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 020537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT
KCPW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON
NIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY
EARLY TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A
REINFORCING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER FLIGHT AREA. SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS...WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
AT TIMES...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL BE GUSTY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE...CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE
BRIEFLY TO LOWER LEVELS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT
KCPW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON
NIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY
EARLY TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A
REINFORCING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER FLIGHT AREA. SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS...WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
AT TIMES...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL BE GUSTY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE...CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE
BRIEFLY TO LOWER LEVELS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 020537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT
KCPW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON
NIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY
EARLY TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A
REINFORCING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER FLIGHT AREA. SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS...WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
AT TIMES...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL BE GUSTY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE...CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE
BRIEFLY TO LOWER LEVELS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 020537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT
KCPW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON
NIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY
EARLY TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A
REINFORCING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER FLIGHT AREA. SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS...WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
AT TIMES...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL BE GUSTY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE...CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE
BRIEFLY TO LOWER LEVELS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020137
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
637 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMS. HEADLINES LOOK
ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT CPW...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON NIGHT.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SLV
AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY EARLY
TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A REINFORCING
SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NITE/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...MVFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUD
DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK IN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020137
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
637 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMS. HEADLINES LOOK
ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT CPW...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON NIGHT.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SLV
AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY EARLY
TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A REINFORCING
SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NITE/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...MVFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUD
DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK IN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 012229
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SLV
AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY EARLY
TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A REINFORCING
SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NITE/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...MVFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUD
DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK IN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 012229
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SLV
AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY EARLY
TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A REINFORCING
SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NITE/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...MVFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUD
DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK IN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 011758
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1058 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHOES OVR PORTIONS OF THE SANGRES THIS
MORNING...WITH WEB CAMS SHOWING SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SW MTNS.
THERE MAY BE OCNL SNOW SHOWERS IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS WELL.  HYR CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED OVR THE SERN PLAINS...BUT
THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLURRIES.

AN UPR LOW WL REMAIN ALONG THE SRN CA COAST THRU THE DAY.  THE UPR
LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...WITH THE UPR TROF BEGINNING TO
MOVE EASTWARD. W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE ACRS CO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW THE CONTINUED STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE
CONTDVD.  ALTHOUGH THE MTNS OF THE CONTDVD WL GET SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL
STILL BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA.  WINDS THIS MORNING ARE NOT REACHING
BLIZZARD CRITERIA OVER ZONE 68...BUT LATER TODAY THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN AND GUSTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
STRONG...AND WITH THE HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING THE BLSN AND NEAR ZERO
VSBYS WL BE QUITE DANGEROUS. WL LEAVE THE BLIZZARD WARNING AS IS.

THE NAM THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...SO WL REMOVE POPS IN
THESE AREAS.  PROBABLY WL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN OVR MOST
OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EITHER...BUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PCPN RAMPING UP OVR THE ERN MTNS
AROUND MIDAFTERNOON AND SPILLING OUT OVR PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR THRU THE EVENING HOURS.  THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN MAINLY FROM THE WET MTNS AND NRN
SANGRES AND LOCATIONS NORTH...NOT REALLY SHOWING ALL THAT MUCH FOR
THE SRN SANGRES...AND THE NAM AND HRRR STILL HAVE THAT TREND. THIS
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS MORE ACTIVITY OVR THE SRN SANGRES THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THE HRRR AND NAM. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE OVR
EL PASO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES
AND WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE
FOR PCPN OVR MOST OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT WL PUT SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST.  BY LATE NIGHT...PCPN
OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR EL PASO COUNTY SHOULD KEEP
SNOW GOING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.  ALSO...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR THE NRN SANGRES...
THE WET MTNS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY THRU THE NIGHT.  ONE CONCERN
IS THAT IF LIGHT PCPN DOES OCCUR OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...THE
SOUNDING PROFILE STILL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER THEREAFTER...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AS
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE DESERT SW MERGES WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR WITHIN A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SNOWFALL
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE ON THE WANE EARLY MONDAY
MONDAY MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE CONTDVD...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...UVV AND OROGRAPHICS AHEAD OF THE COMBINING SYSTEMS.
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVD. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER EAST...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS HELPING TO BOOST HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGHS MOST LIKELY BEING REACHED
BY MID MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO GRADUALLY END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WITHIN
THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES...DROPPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...VFR TO INTERMITTENT MVFR DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG
THROUGH 20-21Z...THEN TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR UNTIL 21-23Z THEN IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011758
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1058 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHOES OVR PORTIONS OF THE SANGRES THIS
MORNING...WITH WEB CAMS SHOWING SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SW MTNS.
THERE MAY BE OCNL SNOW SHOWERS IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS WELL.  HYR CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED OVR THE SERN PLAINS...BUT
THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLURRIES.

AN UPR LOW WL REMAIN ALONG THE SRN CA COAST THRU THE DAY.  THE UPR
LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...WITH THE UPR TROF BEGINNING TO
MOVE EASTWARD. W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE ACRS CO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW THE CONTINUED STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE
CONTDVD.  ALTHOUGH THE MTNS OF THE CONTDVD WL GET SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL
STILL BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA.  WINDS THIS MORNING ARE NOT REACHING
BLIZZARD CRITERIA OVER ZONE 68...BUT LATER TODAY THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN AND GUSTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
STRONG...AND WITH THE HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING THE BLSN AND NEAR ZERO
VSBYS WL BE QUITE DANGEROUS. WL LEAVE THE BLIZZARD WARNING AS IS.

THE NAM THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...SO WL REMOVE POPS IN
THESE AREAS.  PROBABLY WL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN OVR MOST
OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EITHER...BUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PCPN RAMPING UP OVR THE ERN MTNS
AROUND MIDAFTERNOON AND SPILLING OUT OVR PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR THRU THE EVENING HOURS.  THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN MAINLY FROM THE WET MTNS AND NRN
SANGRES AND LOCATIONS NORTH...NOT REALLY SHOWING ALL THAT MUCH FOR
THE SRN SANGRES...AND THE NAM AND HRRR STILL HAVE THAT TREND. THIS
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS MORE ACTIVITY OVR THE SRN SANGRES THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THE HRRR AND NAM. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE OVR
EL PASO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES
AND WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE
FOR PCPN OVR MOST OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT WL PUT SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST.  BY LATE NIGHT...PCPN
OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR EL PASO COUNTY SHOULD KEEP
SNOW GOING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.  ALSO...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR THE NRN SANGRES...
THE WET MTNS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY THRU THE NIGHT.  ONE CONCERN
IS THAT IF LIGHT PCPN DOES OCCUR OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...THE
SOUNDING PROFILE STILL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER THEREAFTER...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AS
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE DESERT SW MERGES WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR WITHIN A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SNOWFALL
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE ON THE WANE EARLY MONDAY
MONDAY MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE CONTDVD...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...UVV AND OROGRAPHICS AHEAD OF THE COMBINING SYSTEMS.
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVD. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER EAST...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS HELPING TO BOOST HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGHS MOST LIKELY BEING REACHED
BY MID MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO GRADUALLY END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WITHIN
THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES...DROPPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...VFR TO INTERMITTENT MVFR DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG
THROUGH 20-21Z...THEN TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR UNTIL 21-23Z THEN IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 011114
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHOES OVR PORTIONS OF THE SANGRES THIS
MORNING...WITH WEB CAMS SHOWING SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SW MTNS.
THERE MAY BE OCNL SNOW SHOWERS IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS WELL.  HYR CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED OVR THE SERN PLAINS...BUT
THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLURRIES.

AN UPR LOW WL REMAIN ALONG THE SRN CA COAST THRU THE DAY.  THE UPR
LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...WITH THE UPR TROF BEGINNING TO
MOVE EASTWARD. W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE ACRS CO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW THE CONTINUED STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE
CONTDVD.  ALTHOUGH THE MTNS OF THE CONTDVD WL GET SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL
STILL BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA.  WINDS THIS MORNING ARE NOT REACHING
BLIZZARD CRITERIA OVER ZONE 68...BUT LATER TODAY THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN AND GUSTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
STRONG...AND WITH THE HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING THE BLSN AND NEAR ZERO
VSBYS WL BE QUITE DANGEROUS. WL LEAVE THE BLIZZARD WARNING AS IS.

THE NAM THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...SO WL REMOVE POPS IN
THESE AREAS.  PROBABLY WL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN OVR MOST
OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EITHER...BUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PCPN RAMPING UP OVR THE ERN MTNS
AROUND MIDAFTERNOON AND SPILLING OUT OVR PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR THRU THE EVENING HOURS.  THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN MAINLY FROM THE WET MTNS AND NRN
SANGRES AND LOCATIONS NORTH...NOT REALLY SHOWING ALL THAT MUCH FOR
THE SRN SANGRES...AND THE NAM AND HRRR STILL HAVE THAT TREND. THIS
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS MORE ACTIVITY OVR THE SRN SANGRES THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THE HRRR AND NAM. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE OVR
EL PASO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES
AND WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE
FOR PCPN OVR MOST OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT WL PUT SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST.  BY LATE NIGHT...PCPN
OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR EL PASO COUNTY SHOULD KEEP
SNOW GOING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.  ALSO...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR THE NRN SANGRES...
THE WET MTNS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY THRU THE NIGHT.  ONE CONCERN
IS THAT IF LIGHT PCPN DOES OCCUR OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...THE
SOUNDING PROFILE STILL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER THEREAFTER...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AS
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE DESERT SW MERGES WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR WITHIN A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SNOWFALL
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE ON THE WANE EARLY MONDAY
MONDAY MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE CONTDVD...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...UVV AND OROGRAPHICS AHEAD OF THE COMBINING SYSTEMS.
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVD. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER EAST...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS HELPING TO BOOST HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGHS MOST LIKELY BEING REACHED
BY MID MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO GRADUALLY END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WITHIN
THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES...DROPPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS WL HAVE IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THRU ABOUT 16Z WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG REMAINING IN THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THRU ABOUT MID AFTERNOON.  IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH WL CONTINUE THRU 12Z MON AND
CONDITIONS WL AGAIN BECOME MVFR OR IFR.  KPUB SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY THRU THE NIGHT.
KALS WL GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER SOME FOG IN THE AREA
THIS MORNING WL BRING IFR CONDITIONS THRU ABOUT 16Z AND THERE WL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 011114
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHOES OVR PORTIONS OF THE SANGRES THIS
MORNING...WITH WEB CAMS SHOWING SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SW MTNS.
THERE MAY BE OCNL SNOW SHOWERS IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS WELL.  HYR CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED OVR THE SERN PLAINS...BUT
THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLURRIES.

AN UPR LOW WL REMAIN ALONG THE SRN CA COAST THRU THE DAY.  THE UPR
LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...WITH THE UPR TROF BEGINNING TO
MOVE EASTWARD. W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE ACRS CO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW THE CONTINUED STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE
CONTDVD.  ALTHOUGH THE MTNS OF THE CONTDVD WL GET SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL
STILL BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA.  WINDS THIS MORNING ARE NOT REACHING
BLIZZARD CRITERIA OVER ZONE 68...BUT LATER TODAY THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN AND GUSTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
STRONG...AND WITH THE HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING THE BLSN AND NEAR ZERO
VSBYS WL BE QUITE DANGEROUS. WL LEAVE THE BLIZZARD WARNING AS IS.

THE NAM THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...SO WL REMOVE POPS IN
THESE AREAS.  PROBABLY WL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN OVR MOST
OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EITHER...BUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PCPN RAMPING UP OVR THE ERN MTNS
AROUND MIDAFTERNOON AND SPILLING OUT OVR PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR THRU THE EVENING HOURS.  THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN MAINLY FROM THE WET MTNS AND NRN
SANGRES AND LOCATIONS NORTH...NOT REALLY SHOWING ALL THAT MUCH FOR
THE SRN SANGRES...AND THE NAM AND HRRR STILL HAVE THAT TREND. THIS
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS MORE ACTIVITY OVR THE SRN SANGRES THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THE HRRR AND NAM. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE OVR
EL PASO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES
AND WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE
FOR PCPN OVR MOST OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT WL PUT SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST.  BY LATE NIGHT...PCPN
OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR EL PASO COUNTY SHOULD KEEP
SNOW GOING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.  ALSO...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR THE NRN SANGRES...
THE WET MTNS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY THRU THE NIGHT.  ONE CONCERN
IS THAT IF LIGHT PCPN DOES OCCUR OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...THE
SOUNDING PROFILE STILL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER THEREAFTER...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AS
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE DESERT SW MERGES WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR WITHIN A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SNOWFALL
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE ON THE WANE EARLY MONDAY
MONDAY MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE CONTDVD...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...UVV AND OROGRAPHICS AHEAD OF THE COMBINING SYSTEMS.
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVD. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER EAST...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS HELPING TO BOOST HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGHS MOST LIKELY BEING REACHED
BY MID MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO GRADUALLY END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WITHIN
THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES...DROPPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS WL HAVE IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THRU ABOUT 16Z WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG REMAINING IN THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THRU ABOUT MID AFTERNOON.  IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH WL CONTINUE THRU 12Z MON AND
CONDITIONS WL AGAIN BECOME MVFR OR IFR.  KPUB SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY THRU THE NIGHT.
KALS WL GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER SOME FOG IN THE AREA
THIS MORNING WL BRING IFR CONDITIONS THRU ABOUT 16Z AND THERE WL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010557
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1057 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE SAN JUANS...

HAVE UPGRADED THE SAN JUANS TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. KCPW HAS SHOWN
THREE HOURS OF 50 PLUS MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW. HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOWER WIND
SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THEN THE JET DESCENDS AND EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONAL EVENT EVEN BY SAN JUANS
STANDARDS...AND WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. ROAD CLOSURES WILL BE
LIKELY AND ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AREA WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR PERIODS
OF THE WORST SNOW AND WIND. THIS IS A LONG DURATION EVENT AND EVEN
AFTER SNOW LETS UP LATE MONDAY...WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AND
SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING AND SNOW LOAD WILL CONTINUE...LEADING TO
EXTREME AVALANCHE DANGER. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER I-25 AND THE PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY
QPF TONIGHT FOR THE ERN ZONES. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN...AS THERE
IS SOME UPPER FORCING AND POSSIBILITY OF MINOR JET INDUCED BANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVER EL PASO. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN
PLAINS...SHORT RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY
RAMPING UP FOR 6-9 HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE
AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE FEED
REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE
TRACKED VIA THE VORTICITY FIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL
THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY
MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP 10 POPS DURING WHAT
IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS WILL
PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FORECASTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT
SEE MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 40F FOR
MAXES OVER THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FLOW
WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND PLAINS TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH.

FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY
BE MVFR TO VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT
OR NEAR THE SITES AT TIMES...BUT PRODUCING LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THE MAIN AREA OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE MOISTURE LADEN PACIFIC AIR IS BEING
STRONGLY LIFTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010557
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1057 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE SAN JUANS...

HAVE UPGRADED THE SAN JUANS TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. KCPW HAS SHOWN
THREE HOURS OF 50 PLUS MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW. HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOWER WIND
SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THEN THE JET DESCENDS AND EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONAL EVENT EVEN BY SAN JUANS
STANDARDS...AND WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. ROAD CLOSURES WILL BE
LIKELY AND ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AREA WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR PERIODS
OF THE WORST SNOW AND WIND. THIS IS A LONG DURATION EVENT AND EVEN
AFTER SNOW LETS UP LATE MONDAY...WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AND
SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING AND SNOW LOAD WILL CONTINUE...LEADING TO
EXTREME AVALANCHE DANGER. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER I-25 AND THE PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY
QPF TONIGHT FOR THE ERN ZONES. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN...AS THERE
IS SOME UPPER FORCING AND POSSIBILITY OF MINOR JET INDUCED BANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVER EL PASO. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN
PLAINS...SHORT RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY
RAMPING UP FOR 6-9 HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE
AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE FEED
REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE
TRACKED VIA THE VORTICITY FIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL
THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY
MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP 10 POPS DURING WHAT
IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS WILL
PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FORECASTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT
SEE MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 40F FOR
MAXES OVER THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FLOW
WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND PLAINS TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH.

FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY
BE MVFR TO VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT
OR NEAR THE SITES AT TIMES...BUT PRODUCING LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THE MAIN AREA OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE MOISTURE LADEN PACIFIC AIR IS BEING
STRONGLY LIFTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 010557
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1057 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE SAN JUANS...

HAVE UPGRADED THE SAN JUANS TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. KCPW HAS SHOWN
THREE HOURS OF 50 PLUS MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW. HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOWER WIND
SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THEN THE JET DESCENDS AND EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONAL EVENT EVEN BY SAN JUANS
STANDARDS...AND WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. ROAD CLOSURES WILL BE
LIKELY AND ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AREA WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR PERIODS
OF THE WORST SNOW AND WIND. THIS IS A LONG DURATION EVENT AND EVEN
AFTER SNOW LETS UP LATE MONDAY...WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AND
SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING AND SNOW LOAD WILL CONTINUE...LEADING TO
EXTREME AVALANCHE DANGER. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER I-25 AND THE PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY
QPF TONIGHT FOR THE ERN ZONES. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN...AS THERE
IS SOME UPPER FORCING AND POSSIBILITY OF MINOR JET INDUCED BANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVER EL PASO. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN
PLAINS...SHORT RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY
RAMPING UP FOR 6-9 HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE
AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE FEED
REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE
TRACKED VIA THE VORTICITY FIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL
THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY
MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP 10 POPS DURING WHAT
IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS WILL
PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FORECASTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT
SEE MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 40F FOR
MAXES OVER THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FLOW
WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND PLAINS TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH.

FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY
BE MVFR TO VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT
OR NEAR THE SITES AT TIMES...BUT PRODUCING LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THE MAIN AREA OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE MOISTURE LADEN PACIFIC AIR IS BEING
STRONGLY LIFTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010254
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
754 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE SAN JUANS...

HAVE UPGRADED THE SAN JUANS TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. CPW HAS SHOWN
THREE HOURS OF 50 PLUS MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW. HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOWER WIND
SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THEN THE JET DESCENDS AND EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONAL EVENT EVEN BY SAN JUANS
STANDARDS...AND WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. ROAD CLOSURES WILL BE
LIKELY AND ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AREA WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR PERIODS
OF THE WORST SNOW AND WIND. THIS IS A LONG DURATION EVENT AND EVEN
AFTER SNOW LETS UP LATE MONDAY...WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AND
SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING AND SNOW LOAD WILL CONTINUE...LEADING TO
EXTREME AVALANCHE DANGER. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER I-25 AND THE PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY
QPF TONIGHT FOR THE ERN ZONES. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN...AS THERE
IS SOME UPPER FORCING AND POSSIBILITY OF MINOR JET INDUCED BANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVER EL PASO. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SLV AND EASTERN PLAINS...SHORT
RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY RAMPING UP FOR 6-9
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z
SUNDAY AFTN. THE MOISTURE FEED REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER
SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE TRACKED VIA THE VORT FIELDS.
HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A
VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
10 POPS DURING WHAT IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SLV AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS
WILL PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FCSTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY WARMER
THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FCST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AOA 40F FOR MAXES OVER
THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE THIS EVE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE
CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z
THIS AFTN...AND TO PERSIST AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW
MORN. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF...THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY
AFTN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010254
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
754 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE SAN JUANS...

HAVE UPGRADED THE SAN JUANS TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. CPW HAS SHOWN
THREE HOURS OF 50 PLUS MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW. HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOWER WIND
SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THEN THE JET DESCENDS AND EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONAL EVENT EVEN BY SAN JUANS
STANDARDS...AND WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. ROAD CLOSURES WILL BE
LIKELY AND ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AREA WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR PERIODS
OF THE WORST SNOW AND WIND. THIS IS A LONG DURATION EVENT AND EVEN
AFTER SNOW LETS UP LATE MONDAY...WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AND
SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING AND SNOW LOAD WILL CONTINUE...LEADING TO
EXTREME AVALANCHE DANGER. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER I-25 AND THE PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY
QPF TONIGHT FOR THE ERN ZONES. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN...AS THERE
IS SOME UPPER FORCING AND POSSIBILITY OF MINOR JET INDUCED BANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVER EL PASO. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SLV AND EASTERN PLAINS...SHORT
RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY RAMPING UP FOR 6-9
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z
SUNDAY AFTN. THE MOISTURE FEED REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER
SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE TRACKED VIA THE VORT FIELDS.
HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A
VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
10 POPS DURING WHAT IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SLV AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS
WILL PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FCSTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY WARMER
THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FCST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AOA 40F FOR MAXES OVER
THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE THIS EVE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE
CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z
THIS AFTN...AND TO PERSIST AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW
MORN. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF...THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY
AFTN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 010254
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
754 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE SAN JUANS...

HAVE UPGRADED THE SAN JUANS TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. CPW HAS SHOWN
THREE HOURS OF 50 PLUS MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW. HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOWER WIND
SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THEN THE JET DESCENDS AND EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONAL EVENT EVEN BY SAN JUANS
STANDARDS...AND WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. ROAD CLOSURES WILL BE
LIKELY AND ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AREA WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR PERIODS
OF THE WORST SNOW AND WIND. THIS IS A LONG DURATION EVENT AND EVEN
AFTER SNOW LETS UP LATE MONDAY...WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AND
SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING AND SNOW LOAD WILL CONTINUE...LEADING TO
EXTREME AVALANCHE DANGER. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER I-25 AND THE PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY
QPF TONIGHT FOR THE ERN ZONES. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN...AS THERE
IS SOME UPPER FORCING AND POSSIBILITY OF MINOR JET INDUCED BANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVER EL PASO. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SLV AND EASTERN PLAINS...SHORT
RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY RAMPING UP FOR 6-9
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z
SUNDAY AFTN. THE MOISTURE FEED REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER
SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE TRACKED VIA THE VORT FIELDS.
HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A
VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
10 POPS DURING WHAT IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SLV AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS
WILL PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FCSTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY WARMER
THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FCST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AOA 40F FOR MAXES OVER
THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE THIS EVE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE
CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z
THIS AFTN...AND TO PERSIST AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW
MORN. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF...THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY
AFTN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 010254
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
754 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE SAN JUANS...

HAVE UPGRADED THE SAN JUANS TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. CPW HAS SHOWN
THREE HOURS OF 50 PLUS MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW. HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOWER WIND
SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THEN THE JET DESCENDS AND EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONAL EVENT EVEN BY SAN JUANS
STANDARDS...AND WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. ROAD CLOSURES WILL BE
LIKELY AND ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AREA WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR PERIODS
OF THE WORST SNOW AND WIND. THIS IS A LONG DURATION EVENT AND EVEN
AFTER SNOW LETS UP LATE MONDAY...WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AND
SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING AND SNOW LOAD WILL CONTINUE...LEADING TO
EXTREME AVALANCHE DANGER. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER I-25 AND THE PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY
QPF TONIGHT FOR THE ERN ZONES. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN...AS THERE
IS SOME UPPER FORCING AND POSSIBILITY OF MINOR JET INDUCED BANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVER EL PASO. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SLV AND EASTERN PLAINS...SHORT
RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY RAMPING UP FOR 6-9
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z
SUNDAY AFTN. THE MOISTURE FEED REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER
SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE TRACKED VIA THE VORT FIELDS.
HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A
VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
10 POPS DURING WHAT IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SLV AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS
WILL PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FCSTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY WARMER
THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FCST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AOA 40F FOR MAXES OVER
THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE THIS EVE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE
CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z
THIS AFTN...AND TO PERSIST AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW
MORN. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF...THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY
AFTN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
616 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE REDUCED POPS
SLIGHLY OVER I-25 AND THE PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY
QPF TONIGHT FOR THE ERN ZONES. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN...AS THERE
IS SOME UPPER FORCING AND POSSIBILITY OF MINOR JET INDUCED BANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVER EL PASO. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SLV AND EASTERN PLAINS...SHORT
RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY RAMPING UP FOR 6-9
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z
SUNDAY AFTN. THE MOISTURE FEED REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER
SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE TRACKED VIA THE VORT FIELDS.
HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A
VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
10 POPS DURING WHAT IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SLV AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS
WILL PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FCSTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY WARMER
THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FCST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AOA 40F FOR MAXES OVER
THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE THIS EVE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE
CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z
THIS AFTN...AND TO PERSIST AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW
MORN. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF...THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY
AFTN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066>068-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 010116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
616 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE REDUCED POPS
SLIGHLY OVER I-25 AND THE PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY
QPF TONIGHT FOR THE ERN ZONES. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN...AS THERE
IS SOME UPPER FORCING AND POSSIBILITY OF MINOR JET INDUCED BANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVER EL PASO. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SLV AND EASTERN PLAINS...SHORT
RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY RAMPING UP FOR 6-9
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z
SUNDAY AFTN. THE MOISTURE FEED REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER
SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE TRACKED VIA THE VORT FIELDS.
HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A
VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
10 POPS DURING WHAT IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SLV AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS
WILL PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FCSTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY WARMER
THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FCST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AOA 40F FOR MAXES OVER
THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE THIS EVE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE
CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z
THIS AFTN...AND TO PERSIST AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW
MORN. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF...THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY
AFTN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066>068-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 282227
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SLV AND EASTERN PLAINS...SHORT
RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY RAMPING UP FOR 6-9
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z
SUNDAY AFTN. THE MOISTURE FEED REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER
SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE TRACKED VIA THE VORT FIELDS.
HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A
VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
10 POPS DURING WHAT IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SLV AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS
WILL PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FCSTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY WARMER
THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FCST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AOA 40F FOR MAXES OVER
THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE THIS EVE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE
CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z
THIS AFTN...AND TO PERSIST AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW
MORN. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF...THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY
AFTN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066>068-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 282227
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SLV AND EASTERN PLAINS...SHORT
RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY RAMPING UP FOR 6-9
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z
SUNDAY AFTN. THE MOISTURE FEED REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER
SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE TRACKED VIA THE VORT FIELDS.
HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A
VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
10 POPS DURING WHAT IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SLV AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS
WILL PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FCSTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY WARMER
THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FCST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AOA 40F FOR MAXES OVER
THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE THIS EVE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE
CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z
THIS AFTN...AND TO PERSIST AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW
MORN. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF...THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY
AFTN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066>068-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 282227
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SLV AND EASTERN PLAINS...SHORT
RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY RAMPING UP FOR 6-9
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z
SUNDAY AFTN. THE MOISTURE FEED REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER
SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE TRACKED VIA THE VORT FIELDS.
HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A
VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
10 POPS DURING WHAT IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SLV AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS
WILL PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FCSTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY WARMER
THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FCST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AOA 40F FOR MAXES OVER
THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE THIS EVE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE
CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z
THIS AFTN...AND TO PERSIST AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW
MORN. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF...THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY
AFTN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066>068-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 282227
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS
WAS STREAMING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO
COLORADO. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING PROVIDED FOR A
PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPS REMAINED COOL AND HAVE
ONLY WARMED INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW...AND INTERMITTENT SNOW
IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...AND THE PLENTIFUL STREAM OF MOISTURE REMAINS CONSTANT. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL IS A
NEAR CERTAINTY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO ALL HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS TO SW FACING
SLOPES...AND AREAS SUCH AS WOLF CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MEASURED IN FEET. AS FOR THE SLV AND EASTERN PLAINS...SHORT
RANGE AND HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TO ACTIVITY RAMPING UP FOR 6-9
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN REALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z
SUNDAY AFTN. THE MOISTURE FEED REMAINS CONSTANT...BUT THE TRIGGER
SEEMS TO BE DYNAMICS AND CAN BE TRACKED VIA THE VORT FIELDS.
HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO BE A
VERY EFFICIENT SNOW/FLURRY MAKER...SO AM VERY HESITANT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
10 POPS DURING WHAT IS SUSPECTED TO BE LULL PERIODS. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE SLV AND E
PLAINS SHOULD SEE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS FOR TEMPS...NO CHANGE THERE AS COLD READINGS
WILL PERSIST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN...

IT IS GOING TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH
PASSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS GOING TO BE COLD WITH ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A MODERATE JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION
00Z MONDAY (6 PM SUNDAY). THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO OVERALL POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT THE INTENSITY WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY.

IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER REGIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A LEAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS....SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
WETS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. PIKES
PEAK WILL ALSO GET GUSTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ON THE PLAINS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
TRINIDAD TO LAMAR...AND POSSIBLY THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WIND WILL
ALLOW THINGS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT AND TEMPS MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
WARM TO AROUND 40 MOST OF THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH MID 40S OVER
THE FAR SE PLAINS. AREAS WHICH REMAIN COOL WILL LIKELY BE THE PUEBLO
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE REVISED IN LATER FCSTS...WITH THE WINDIER AREAS LIKELY WARMER
THAN WHAT THE CURRENT GRIDS SHOW...WHILE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
MUCH WIND MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS SHOW.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS OVER THE
FCST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY/WINDY OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REALLY TIGHTENS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT RELATIVELY MILD ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF THE MTNS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL
OF THE MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-50. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SAN JUANS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW OVER THE
MTNS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE SFC WINDS...AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
IT TO REMAIN DRY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR THE PUEBLO AND COLO SPRINGS AREA...WITH TEMPS
CRASHING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WILL OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE BACA COUNTY.

AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FOR SW TO NW ALOFT DURING TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

IT GETS QUITE COLD AND SNOWY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY WED MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PLAINS. LOW AT 700 WILL BE WESTERLY SO THE UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE C MTNS WITH
SNOW FINALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW MTNS. SNOW SHOULD END OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WED. IF THE EC MODEL IS CORRECT...THE SNOW
MAY END EARLIER.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AOA 40F FOR MAXES OVER
THE PLAINS THU...AND 50S FRI AND SAT. THIS DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE THIS EVE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE
CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z
THIS AFTN...AND TO PERSIST AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW
MORN. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF...THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY
AFTN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066>068-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1033 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

INCORPORATED LATEST OBS DATA AND SATELLITE TRENDS. PLENTY OF SUN
IN AREAS THIS MORNING SO HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT...BUT CLOUD COVER
IS INCREASING FROM THE SW. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

REFRESHED GRIDS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS(WOLF CREEK PASS) AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
NOTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND EVEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY EARLY MORNING CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS COMMONPLACE.

RECENT PV ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRIMARY FOCUS OF HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS(EASTERN SAN JUANS)...WITH SNOW
CONTINUING(HEAVY AT TIMES) OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

PROJECTED ADDITIONAL 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TODAY TO 12Z SUNDAY OF 12 TO 24 INCHES
ANTICIPATED...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 12 INCHES
ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW(PER HRRR...WRF...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.

FINALLY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY
AND EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 20S OVER EASTERN
LOCATIONS TODAY...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN PROJECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ON SUN AND UPR TROF WL LIE FROM NV...SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE SRN CA
COAST.  THIS WL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ABUNDANT MSTR CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE CONTDVD...ALLOWING HEAVY
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR
TELLER COUNTY...AND JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS.  SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SPREAD ACRS TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES
PEAK.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WL HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ERN
MTNS.  THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD JUST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS...WITH THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTNS
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES.  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS WL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

BY MON MORNING THE PCPN OVR THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY
WITH ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE. SNOW OVR THE ERN MTNS SHOULD BE LETTING
UP AS WELL...BUT SNOW OVR THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE.  BY
MON AFTERNOON PCPN WL MOSTLY HAVE ENDED OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND ERN
MTNS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE HYR MTN
AREAS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY MON AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WL LIMIT THE
WARMING TO SOME DEGREE.

MON NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVING S FROM CANADA MOVES INTO WRN CO AND
THEN AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVR THE STATE THRU
WED...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.  MON NIGHT...W TO SW FLOW ACRS
THE SERN PLAINS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES OVR THE
MTNS.  TUE MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SERN PLAINS.  THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND
OVR NRN TELLER COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO THOSE
AREAS BEFORE NOON TUE.  THEN IN THE AFTERNOON PCPN ALSO SPREADS
SOUTH OVR ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  SOME OF
THE PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...BUT COLD AIR WL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN SHOULD THEN SWITCH OVR TO
SNOW.  THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS WL ALSO SEE SNOW ON TUE...BUT
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT. ON WED IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WL JUST BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
TEMPS WL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.   THERE ARE ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE UPR TROF...AND IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING...WITH PCPN THEN ENDING.  DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 40S ON THU AND MAYBE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS MORNING FOR THE TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB
AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFRR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND LOWERING CLOUDS TO RETURN TO KALS AFTER
20Z THIS AFTN...AND TO KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 23Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1033 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

INCORPORATED LATEST OBS DATA AND SATELLITE TRENDS. PLENTY OF SUN
IN AREAS THIS MORNING SO HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT...BUT CLOUD COVER
IS INCREASING FROM THE SW. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

REFRESHED GRIDS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS(WOLF CREEK PASS) AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
NOTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND EVEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY EARLY MORNING CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS COMMONPLACE.

RECENT PV ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRIMARY FOCUS OF HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS(EASTERN SAN JUANS)...WITH SNOW
CONTINUING(HEAVY AT TIMES) OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

PROJECTED ADDITIONAL 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TODAY TO 12Z SUNDAY OF 12 TO 24 INCHES
ANTICIPATED...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 12 INCHES
ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW(PER HRRR...WRF...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.

FINALLY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY
AND EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 20S OVER EASTERN
LOCATIONS TODAY...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN PROJECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ON SUN AND UPR TROF WL LIE FROM NV...SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE SRN CA
COAST.  THIS WL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ABUNDANT MSTR CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE CONTDVD...ALLOWING HEAVY
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR
TELLER COUNTY...AND JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS.  SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SPREAD ACRS TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES
PEAK.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WL HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ERN
MTNS.  THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD JUST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS...WITH THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTNS
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES.  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS WL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

BY MON MORNING THE PCPN OVR THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY
WITH ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE. SNOW OVR THE ERN MTNS SHOULD BE LETTING
UP AS WELL...BUT SNOW OVR THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE.  BY
MON AFTERNOON PCPN WL MOSTLY HAVE ENDED OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND ERN
MTNS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE HYR MTN
AREAS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY MON AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WL LIMIT THE
WARMING TO SOME DEGREE.

MON NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVING S FROM CANADA MOVES INTO WRN CO AND
THEN AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVR THE STATE THRU
WED...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.  MON NIGHT...W TO SW FLOW ACRS
THE SERN PLAINS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES OVR THE
MTNS.  TUE MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SERN PLAINS.  THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND
OVR NRN TELLER COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO THOSE
AREAS BEFORE NOON TUE.  THEN IN THE AFTERNOON PCPN ALSO SPREADS
SOUTH OVR ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  SOME OF
THE PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...BUT COLD AIR WL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN SHOULD THEN SWITCH OVR TO
SNOW.  THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS WL ALSO SEE SNOW ON TUE...BUT
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT. ON WED IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WL JUST BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
TEMPS WL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.   THERE ARE ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE UPR TROF...AND IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING...WITH PCPN THEN ENDING.  DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 40S ON THU AND MAYBE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS MORNING FOR THE TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB
AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFRR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND LOWERING CLOUDS TO RETURN TO KALS AFTER
20Z THIS AFTN...AND TO KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 23Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1033 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

INCORPORATED LATEST OBS DATA AND SATELLITE TRENDS. PLENTY OF SUN
IN AREAS THIS MORNING SO HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT...BUT CLOUD COVER
IS INCREASING FROM THE SW. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

REFRESHED GRIDS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS(WOLF CREEK PASS) AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
NOTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND EVEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY EARLY MORNING CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS COMMONPLACE.

RECENT PV ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRIMARY FOCUS OF HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS(EASTERN SAN JUANS)...WITH SNOW
CONTINUING(HEAVY AT TIMES) OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

PROJECTED ADDITIONAL 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TODAY TO 12Z SUNDAY OF 12 TO 24 INCHES
ANTICIPATED...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 12 INCHES
ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW(PER HRRR...WRF...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.

FINALLY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY
AND EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 20S OVER EASTERN
LOCATIONS TODAY...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN PROJECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ON SUN AND UPR TROF WL LIE FROM NV...SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE SRN CA
COAST.  THIS WL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ABUNDANT MSTR CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE CONTDVD...ALLOWING HEAVY
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR
TELLER COUNTY...AND JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS.  SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SPREAD ACRS TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES
PEAK.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WL HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ERN
MTNS.  THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD JUST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS...WITH THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTNS
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES.  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS WL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

BY MON MORNING THE PCPN OVR THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY
WITH ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE. SNOW OVR THE ERN MTNS SHOULD BE LETTING
UP AS WELL...BUT SNOW OVR THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE.  BY
MON AFTERNOON PCPN WL MOSTLY HAVE ENDED OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND ERN
MTNS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE HYR MTN
AREAS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY MON AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WL LIMIT THE
WARMING TO SOME DEGREE.

MON NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVING S FROM CANADA MOVES INTO WRN CO AND
THEN AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVR THE STATE THRU
WED...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.  MON NIGHT...W TO SW FLOW ACRS
THE SERN PLAINS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES OVR THE
MTNS.  TUE MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SERN PLAINS.  THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND
OVR NRN TELLER COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO THOSE
AREAS BEFORE NOON TUE.  THEN IN THE AFTERNOON PCPN ALSO SPREADS
SOUTH OVR ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  SOME OF
THE PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...BUT COLD AIR WL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN SHOULD THEN SWITCH OVR TO
SNOW.  THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS WL ALSO SEE SNOW ON TUE...BUT
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT. ON WED IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WL JUST BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
TEMPS WL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.   THERE ARE ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE UPR TROF...AND IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING...WITH PCPN THEN ENDING.  DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 40S ON THU AND MAYBE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS MORNING FOR THE TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB
AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFRR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND LOWERING CLOUDS TO RETURN TO KALS AFTER
20Z THIS AFTN...AND TO KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 23Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1033 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

INCORPORATED LATEST OBS DATA AND SATELLITE TRENDS. PLENTY OF SUN
IN AREAS THIS MORNING SO HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT...BUT CLOUD COVER
IS INCREASING FROM THE SW. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

REFRESHED GRIDS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS(WOLF CREEK PASS) AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
NOTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND EVEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY EARLY MORNING CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS COMMONPLACE.

RECENT PV ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRIMARY FOCUS OF HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS(EASTERN SAN JUANS)...WITH SNOW
CONTINUING(HEAVY AT TIMES) OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

PROJECTED ADDITIONAL 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TODAY TO 12Z SUNDAY OF 12 TO 24 INCHES
ANTICIPATED...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 12 INCHES
ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW(PER HRRR...WRF...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.

FINALLY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY
AND EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 20S OVER EASTERN
LOCATIONS TODAY...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN PROJECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ON SUN AND UPR TROF WL LIE FROM NV...SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE SRN CA
COAST.  THIS WL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ABUNDANT MSTR CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE CONTDVD...ALLOWING HEAVY
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR
TELLER COUNTY...AND JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS.  SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SPREAD ACRS TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES
PEAK.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WL HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ERN
MTNS.  THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD JUST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS...WITH THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTNS
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES.  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS WL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

BY MON MORNING THE PCPN OVR THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY
WITH ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE. SNOW OVR THE ERN MTNS SHOULD BE LETTING
UP AS WELL...BUT SNOW OVR THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE.  BY
MON AFTERNOON PCPN WL MOSTLY HAVE ENDED OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND ERN
MTNS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE HYR MTN
AREAS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY MON AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WL LIMIT THE
WARMING TO SOME DEGREE.

MON NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVING S FROM CANADA MOVES INTO WRN CO AND
THEN AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVR THE STATE THRU
WED...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.  MON NIGHT...W TO SW FLOW ACRS
THE SERN PLAINS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES OVR THE
MTNS.  TUE MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SERN PLAINS.  THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND
OVR NRN TELLER COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO THOSE
AREAS BEFORE NOON TUE.  THEN IN THE AFTERNOON PCPN ALSO SPREADS
SOUTH OVR ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  SOME OF
THE PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...BUT COLD AIR WL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN SHOULD THEN SWITCH OVR TO
SNOW.  THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS WL ALSO SEE SNOW ON TUE...BUT
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT. ON WED IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WL JUST BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
TEMPS WL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.   THERE ARE ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE UPR TROF...AND IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING...WITH PCPN THEN ENDING.  DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 40S ON THU AND MAYBE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS MORNING FOR THE TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB
AND KALS...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MVFRR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO OCNL SN...FOG AND LOWERING CLOUDS TO RETURN TO KALS AFTER
20Z THIS AFTN...AND TO KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 23Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281419
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
719 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

REFRESHED GRIDS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS(WOLF CREEK PASS) AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
NOTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND EVEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY EARLY MORNING CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS COMMONPLACE.

RECENT PV ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRIMARY FOCUS OF HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS(EASTERN SAN JUANS)...WITH SNOW
CONTINUING(HEAVY AT TIMES) OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

PROJECTED ADDITIONAL 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TODAY TO 12Z SUNDAY OF 12 TO 24 INCHES
ANTICIPATED...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 12 INCHES
ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW(PER HRRR...WRF...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.

FINALLY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY
AND EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 20S OVER EASTERN
LOCATIONS TODAY...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN PROJECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ON SUN AND UPR TROF WL LIE FROM NV...SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE SRN CA
COAST.  THIS WL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ABUNDANT MSTR CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE CONTDVD...ALLOWING HEAVY
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR
TELLER COUNTY...AND JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS.  SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SPREAD ACRS TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES
PEAK.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WL HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ERN
MTNS.  THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD JUST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS...WITH THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTNS
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES.  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS WL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

BY MON MORNING THE PCPN OVR THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY
WITH ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE. SNOW OVR THE ERN MTNS SHOULD BE LETTING
UP AS WELL...BUT SNOW OVR THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE.  BY
MON AFTERNOON PCPN WL MOSTLY HAVE ENDED OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND ERN
MTNS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE HYR MTN
AREAS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY MON AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WL LIMIT THE
WARMING TO SOME DEGREE.

MON NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVING S FROM CANADA MOVES INTO WRN CO AND
THEN AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVR THE STATE THRU
WED...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.  MON NIGHT...W TO SW FLOW ACRS
THE SERN PLAINS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES OVR THE
MTNS.  TUE MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SERN PLAINS.  THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND
OVR NRN TELLER COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO THOSE
AREAS BEFORE NOON TUE.  THEN IN THE AFTERNOON PCPN ALSO SPREADS
SOUTH OVR ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  SOME OF
THE PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...BUT COLD AIR WL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN SHOULD THEN SWITCH OVR TO
SNOW.  THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS WL ALSO SEE SNOW ON TUE...BUT
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT. ON WED IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WL JUST BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
TEMPS WL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.   THERE ARE ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE UPR TROF...AND IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING...WITH PCPN THEN ENDING.  DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 40S ON THU AND MAYBE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG AND SNOW AT TIMES WILL ALLOW GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO BE NOTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW AT THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281419
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
719 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

REFRESHED GRIDS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS(WOLF CREEK PASS) AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
NOTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND EVEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY EARLY MORNING CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS COMMONPLACE.

RECENT PV ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRIMARY FOCUS OF HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS(EASTERN SAN JUANS)...WITH SNOW
CONTINUING(HEAVY AT TIMES) OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

PROJECTED ADDITIONAL 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TODAY TO 12Z SUNDAY OF 12 TO 24 INCHES
ANTICIPATED...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 12 INCHES
ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW(PER HRRR...WRF...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.

FINALLY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY
AND EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 20S OVER EASTERN
LOCATIONS TODAY...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN PROJECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ON SUN AND UPR TROF WL LIE FROM NV...SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE SRN CA
COAST.  THIS WL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ABUNDANT MSTR CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE CONTDVD...ALLOWING HEAVY
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR
TELLER COUNTY...AND JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS.  SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SPREAD ACRS TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES
PEAK.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WL HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ERN
MTNS.  THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD JUST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS...WITH THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTNS
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES.  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS WL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

BY MON MORNING THE PCPN OVR THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY
WITH ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE. SNOW OVR THE ERN MTNS SHOULD BE LETTING
UP AS WELL...BUT SNOW OVR THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE.  BY
MON AFTERNOON PCPN WL MOSTLY HAVE ENDED OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND ERN
MTNS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE HYR MTN
AREAS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY MON AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WL LIMIT THE
WARMING TO SOME DEGREE.

MON NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVING S FROM CANADA MOVES INTO WRN CO AND
THEN AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVR THE STATE THRU
WED...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.  MON NIGHT...W TO SW FLOW ACRS
THE SERN PLAINS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES OVR THE
MTNS.  TUE MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SERN PLAINS.  THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND
OVR NRN TELLER COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO THOSE
AREAS BEFORE NOON TUE.  THEN IN THE AFTERNOON PCPN ALSO SPREADS
SOUTH OVR ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  SOME OF
THE PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...BUT COLD AIR WL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN SHOULD THEN SWITCH OVR TO
SNOW.  THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS WL ALSO SEE SNOW ON TUE...BUT
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT. ON WED IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WL JUST BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
TEMPS WL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.   THERE ARE ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE UPR TROF...AND IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING...WITH PCPN THEN ENDING.  DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 40S ON THU AND MAYBE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG AND SNOW AT TIMES WILL ALLOW GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO BE NOTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW AT THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281419
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
719 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

REFRESHED GRIDS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS(WOLF CREEK PASS) AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
NOTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND EVEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY EARLY MORNING CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS COMMONPLACE.

RECENT PV ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRIMARY FOCUS OF HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS(EASTERN SAN JUANS)...WITH SNOW
CONTINUING(HEAVY AT TIMES) OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

PROJECTED ADDITIONAL 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TODAY TO 12Z SUNDAY OF 12 TO 24 INCHES
ANTICIPATED...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 12 INCHES
ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW(PER HRRR...WRF...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.

FINALLY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY
AND EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 20S OVER EASTERN
LOCATIONS TODAY...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN PROJECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ON SUN AND UPR TROF WL LIE FROM NV...SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE SRN CA
COAST.  THIS WL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ABUNDANT MSTR CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE CONTDVD...ALLOWING HEAVY
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR
TELLER COUNTY...AND JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS.  SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SPREAD ACRS TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES
PEAK.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WL HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ERN
MTNS.  THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD JUST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS...WITH THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTNS
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES.  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS WL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

BY MON MORNING THE PCPN OVR THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY
WITH ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE. SNOW OVR THE ERN MTNS SHOULD BE LETTING
UP AS WELL...BUT SNOW OVR THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE.  BY
MON AFTERNOON PCPN WL MOSTLY HAVE ENDED OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND ERN
MTNS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE HYR MTN
AREAS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY MON AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WL LIMIT THE
WARMING TO SOME DEGREE.

MON NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVING S FROM CANADA MOVES INTO WRN CO AND
THEN AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVR THE STATE THRU
WED...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.  MON NIGHT...W TO SW FLOW ACRS
THE SERN PLAINS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES OVR THE
MTNS.  TUE MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SERN PLAINS.  THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND
OVR NRN TELLER COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO THOSE
AREAS BEFORE NOON TUE.  THEN IN THE AFTERNOON PCPN ALSO SPREADS
SOUTH OVR ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  SOME OF
THE PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...BUT COLD AIR WL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN SHOULD THEN SWITCH OVR TO
SNOW.  THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS WL ALSO SEE SNOW ON TUE...BUT
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT. ON WED IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WL JUST BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
TEMPS WL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.   THERE ARE ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE UPR TROF...AND IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING...WITH PCPN THEN ENDING.  DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 40S ON THU AND MAYBE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG AND SNOW AT TIMES WILL ALLOW GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO BE NOTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW AT THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281419
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
719 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

REFRESHED GRIDS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS(WOLF CREEK PASS) AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
NOTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND EVEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY EARLY MORNING CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS COMMONPLACE.

RECENT PV ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRIMARY FOCUS OF HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS(EASTERN SAN JUANS)...WITH SNOW
CONTINUING(HEAVY AT TIMES) OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

PROJECTED ADDITIONAL 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TODAY TO 12Z SUNDAY OF 12 TO 24 INCHES
ANTICIPATED...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 12 INCHES
ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW(PER HRRR...WRF...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.

FINALLY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY
AND EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 20S OVER EASTERN
LOCATIONS TODAY...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN PROJECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ON SUN AND UPR TROF WL LIE FROM NV...SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE SRN CA
COAST.  THIS WL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ABUNDANT MSTR CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE CONTDVD...ALLOWING HEAVY
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR
TELLER COUNTY...AND JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS.  SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SPREAD ACRS TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES
PEAK.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WL HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ERN
MTNS.  THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD JUST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS...WITH THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTNS
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES.  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS WL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

BY MON MORNING THE PCPN OVR THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY
WITH ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE. SNOW OVR THE ERN MTNS SHOULD BE LETTING
UP AS WELL...BUT SNOW OVR THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE.  BY
MON AFTERNOON PCPN WL MOSTLY HAVE ENDED OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND ERN
MTNS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE HYR MTN
AREAS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY MON AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WL LIMIT THE
WARMING TO SOME DEGREE.

MON NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVING S FROM CANADA MOVES INTO WRN CO AND
THEN AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVR THE STATE THRU
WED...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.  MON NIGHT...W TO SW FLOW ACRS
THE SERN PLAINS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES OVR THE
MTNS.  TUE MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SERN PLAINS.  THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND
OVR NRN TELLER COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO THOSE
AREAS BEFORE NOON TUE.  THEN IN THE AFTERNOON PCPN ALSO SPREADS
SOUTH OVR ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  SOME OF
THE PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...BUT COLD AIR WL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN SHOULD THEN SWITCH OVR TO
SNOW.  THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS WL ALSO SEE SNOW ON TUE...BUT
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT. ON WED IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WL JUST BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
TEMPS WL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.   THERE ARE ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE UPR TROF...AND IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING...WITH PCPN THEN ENDING.  DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 40S ON THU AND MAYBE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG AND SNOW AT TIMES WILL ALLOW GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO BE NOTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW AT THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
433 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS(WOLF CREEK PASS) AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
NOTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND EVEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY EARLY MORNING CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS COMMONPLACE.

RECENT PV ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRIMARY FOCUS OF HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS(EASTERN SAN JUANS)...WITH SNOW
CONTINUING(HEAVY AT TIMES) OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

PROJECTED ADDITIONAL 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TODAY TO 12Z SUNDAY OF 12 TO 24 INCHES
ANTICIPATED...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 12 INCHES
ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW(PER HRRR...WRF...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.

FINALLY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY
AND EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 20S OVER EASTERN
LOCATIONS TODAY...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN PROJECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ON SUN AND UPR TROF WL LIE FROM NV...SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE SRN CA
COAST.  THIS WL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ABUNDANT MSTR CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE CONTDVD...ALLOWING HEAVY
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR
TELLER COUNTY...AND JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS.  SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SPREAD ACRS TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES
PEAK.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WL HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ERN
MTNS.  THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD JUST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS...WITH THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTNS
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES.  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS WL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

BY MON MORNING THE PCPN OVR THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY
WITH ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE. SNOW OVR THE ERN MTNS SHOULD BE LETTING
UP AS WELL...BUT SNOW OVR THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE.  BY
MON AFTERNOON PCPN WL MOSTLY HAVE ENDED OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND ERN
MTNS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE HYR MTN
AREAS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY MON AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WL LIMIT THE
WARMING TO SOME DEGREE.

MON NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVING S FROM CANADA MOVES INTO WRN CO AND
THEN AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVR THE STATE THRU
WED...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.  MON NIGHT...W TO SW FLOW ACRS
THE SERN PLAINS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES OVR THE
MTNS.  TUE MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SERN PLAINS.  THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND
OVR NRN TELLER COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO THOSE
AREAS BEFORE NOON TUE.  THEN IN THE AFTERNOON PCPN ALSO SPREADS
SOUTH OVR ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  SOME OF
THE PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...BUT COLD AIR WL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN SHOULD THEN SWITCH OVR TO
SNOW.  THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS WL ALSO SEE SNOW ON TUE...BUT
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT. ON WED IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WL JUST BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
TEMPS WL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.   THERE ARE ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE UPR TROF...AND IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING...WITH PCPN THEN ENDING.  DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 40S ON THU AND MAYBE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG AND SNOW AT TIMES WILL ALLOW GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO BE NOTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW AT THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
433 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS(WOLF CREEK PASS) AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
NOTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND EVEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY EARLY MORNING CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS COMMONPLACE.

RECENT PV ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRIMARY FOCUS OF HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS(EASTERN SAN JUANS)...WITH SNOW
CONTINUING(HEAVY AT TIMES) OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

PROJECTED ADDITIONAL 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TODAY TO 12Z SUNDAY OF 12 TO 24 INCHES
ANTICIPATED...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 12 INCHES
ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW(PER HRRR...WRF...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.

FINALLY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY
AND EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 20S OVER EASTERN
LOCATIONS TODAY...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN PROJECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ON SUN AND UPR TROF WL LIE FROM NV...SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE SRN CA
COAST.  THIS WL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ABUNDANT MSTR CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE CONTDVD...ALLOWING HEAVY
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR
TELLER COUNTY...AND JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS.  SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SPREAD ACRS TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES
PEAK.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WL HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ERN
MTNS.  THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD JUST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS...WITH THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTNS
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES.  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS WL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

BY MON MORNING THE PCPN OVR THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY
WITH ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE. SNOW OVR THE ERN MTNS SHOULD BE LETTING
UP AS WELL...BUT SNOW OVR THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE.  BY
MON AFTERNOON PCPN WL MOSTLY HAVE ENDED OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND ERN
MTNS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE HYR MTN
AREAS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY MON AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WL LIMIT THE
WARMING TO SOME DEGREE.

MON NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVING S FROM CANADA MOVES INTO WRN CO AND
THEN AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVR THE STATE THRU
WED...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.  MON NIGHT...W TO SW FLOW ACRS
THE SERN PLAINS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES OVR THE
MTNS.  TUE MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SERN PLAINS.  THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND
OVR NRN TELLER COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO THOSE
AREAS BEFORE NOON TUE.  THEN IN THE AFTERNOON PCPN ALSO SPREADS
SOUTH OVR ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  SOME OF
THE PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...BUT COLD AIR WL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN SHOULD THEN SWITCH OVR TO
SNOW.  THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS WL ALSO SEE SNOW ON TUE...BUT
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT. ON WED IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WL JUST BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
TEMPS WL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.   THERE ARE ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE UPR TROF...AND IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING...WITH PCPN THEN ENDING.  DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 40S ON THU AND MAYBE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG AND SNOW AT TIMES WILL ALLOW GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO BE NOTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW AT THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280650
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MANY
LOCATIONS BY MON MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE
ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CORE OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
COLORADO LATER TODAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CALIFORNIA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUANS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISTURBANCES IN THE JET STREAM...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLD
AIR OVER THE PLAINS...WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS GOING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS
EVEN SEEING VFR IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS LATER IN THE
DAY DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AT KALS...PERIODS OF
SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z SAT. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 280650
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MANY
LOCATIONS BY MON MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE
ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CORE OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
COLORADO LATER TODAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CALIFORNIA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUANS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISTURBANCES IN THE JET STREAM...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLD
AIR OVER THE PLAINS...WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS GOING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS
EVEN SEEING VFR IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS LATER IN THE
DAY DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AT KALS...PERIODS OF
SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z SAT. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 280650
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MANY
LOCATIONS BY MON MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE
ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CORE OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
COLORADO LATER TODAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CALIFORNIA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUANS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISTURBANCES IN THE JET STREAM...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLD
AIR OVER THE PLAINS...WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS GOING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS
EVEN SEEING VFR IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS LATER IN THE
DAY DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AT KALS...PERIODS OF
SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z SAT. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280650
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MANY
LOCATIONS BY MON MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE
ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CORE OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
COLORADO LATER TODAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CALIFORNIA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUANS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISTURBANCES IN THE JET STREAM...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLD
AIR OVER THE PLAINS...WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS GOING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS
EVEN SEEING VFR IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS LATER IN THE
DAY DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AT KALS...PERIODS OF
SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z SAT. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280531
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MANY
LOCATIONS BY MON MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE
ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CORE OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
COLORADO LATER TODAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CALIFORNIA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUANS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISTURBANCES IN THE JET STREAM...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLD
AIR OVER THE PLAINS...WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS GOING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS
EVEN SEEING VFR IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS LATER IN THE
DAY DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AT KALS...PERIODS OF
SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z SAT. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 280531
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MANY
LOCATIONS BY MON MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE
ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CORE OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
COLORADO LATER TODAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CALIFORNIA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUANS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISTURBANCES IN THE JET STREAM...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLD
AIR OVER THE PLAINS...WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS GOING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS
EVEN SEEING VFR IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS LATER IN THE
DAY DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AT KALS...PERIODS OF
SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z SAT. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280450
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
950 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MANY
LOCATIONS BY MON MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE
ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.  LIGHT
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 THOUSAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PAUSE IN THE LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE MORE LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 280450
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
950 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MANY
LOCATIONS BY MON MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE
ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.  LIGHT
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 THOUSAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PAUSE IN THE LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE MORE LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280139
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
639 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MANY
LOCATIONS BY MON MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE
ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.  LIGHT
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 THOUSAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PAUSE IN THE LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE MORE LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 280139
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
639 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MANY
LOCATIONS BY MON MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE
ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.  LIGHT
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 THOUSAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PAUSE IN THE LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE MORE LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280139
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
639 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MANY
LOCATIONS BY MON MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE
ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.  LIGHT
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 THOUSAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PAUSE IN THE LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE MORE LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 272221
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS MANY LOCATIONS BY MON
MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW
LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A STEADIER SNOW FOR A
FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF
FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.  LIGHT
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PAUSE IN THE LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE MORE LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 272221
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS MANY LOCATIONS BY MON
MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW
LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A STEADIER SNOW FOR A
FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF
FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.  LIGHT
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PAUSE IN THE LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE MORE LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 272221
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS MANY LOCATIONS BY MON
MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW
LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A STEADIER SNOW FOR A
FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF
FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.  LIGHT
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PAUSE IN THE LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE MORE LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 271813
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1113 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BACA COUNTY.
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
LESS THAN AN INCH.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED FOR EXPIRATIONS OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVR THE ERN
MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS NWS PUEBLO
NOTING AN ADDITIONAL 2.8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT AS OF 4 AM
MST THIS MORNING.  ALSO...4 AM MST SURFACE TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
0F TO -15F AT TIMES.

OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...LESS PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AS PRECIPITATION FOCUS
SHIFTS TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS
APPEARANCE.

RECENT REAL-TIME AND SATELLITE DATA...PV ANALYSIS AND NEAR/SHORT-
TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT FORECAST DISTRICT WILL
EXPERIENCE DECREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL(ESPECIALLY MANY
EASTERN SECTION LOCATIONS TODAY) IN COMBINATION WITH WELL BELOW LATE
FEBRUARY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BACA COUNTY WHERE WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR LOWER
GRADE POPS IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED BELOW SEASONAL LATE
FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES.  OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE SHORT-TERM IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  ALSO...INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM MT...SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL CA ON
SAT...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE CONTDVD ALLOWING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SAN JUAN MTNS.  ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR ON SAT AFTERNOON...E TO SE SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THE SERN PLAINS LOOK MOSTLY DRY ON SAT AND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY WL PROBABLY JUST SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN.

SAT NIGHT THE MTNS WL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWFALL...WITHE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS BEING ALONG THE CONTDVD.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR WILL MAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PCPN...DECREASING OR ENDING LATE.  THE SOUNDING PROFILE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS SHOWS TEMPS ALOFT WARMING AND THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST YET.

ON SUN THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NR CENTRAL CA WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  IN THE AFTERNOON A
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE ERN PLAINS AS AN UPR TROF MOVES
FROM ERN MT INTO MN.  THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENERAL LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SW MTNS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE DAY. SUN NIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS HELPING ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG THE
ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVR THE ERN MTNS AND
FREMONT COUNTY...AND A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MAY END UP NEEDING HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NR THE
ERN MTNS.  HEAVY SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FALLING OVR THE SAN
JUAN MTNS SUN NIGHT...WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS. PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON MON THE UPR SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.  THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY ON
MON...BUT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTDVD AS THE MSTR STREAM
CONTINUES INTO THAT AREA.  MON NIGHT THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO
CO...WITH SNOW EXPECTED FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS. ON TUE THE UPR TROF WL
BE SLOWING PASSING OVR THE AREA WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU EARLY
IN THE DAY.  THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE
AREA AND IT HOLDS ONTO PCPN THRU THE DAY WED...WHILE THE GFS
DECREASES AND THEN ENDS PCPN BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THU THEN LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN AND
AROUND THE TERMINAL AREA. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED TO NEAR 1OOO FEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
BY 09-10Z TONIGHT WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271813
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1113 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BACA COUNTY.
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
LESS THAN AN INCH.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED FOR EXPIRATIONS OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVR THE ERN
MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS NWS PUEBLO
NOTING AN ADDITIONAL 2.8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT AS OF 4 AM
MST THIS MORNING.  ALSO...4 AM MST SURFACE TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
0F TO -15F AT TIMES.

OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...LESS PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AS PRECIPITATION FOCUS
SHIFTS TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS
APPEARANCE.

RECENT REAL-TIME AND SATELLITE DATA...PV ANALYSIS AND NEAR/SHORT-
TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT FORECAST DISTRICT WILL
EXPERIENCE DECREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL(ESPECIALLY MANY
EASTERN SECTION LOCATIONS TODAY) IN COMBINATION WITH WELL BELOW LATE
FEBRUARY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BACA COUNTY WHERE WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR LOWER
GRADE POPS IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED BELOW SEASONAL LATE
FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES.  OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE SHORT-TERM IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  ALSO...INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM MT...SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL CA ON
SAT...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE CONTDVD ALLOWING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SAN JUAN MTNS.  ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR ON SAT AFTERNOON...E TO SE SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THE SERN PLAINS LOOK MOSTLY DRY ON SAT AND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY WL PROBABLY JUST SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN.

SAT NIGHT THE MTNS WL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWFALL...WITHE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS BEING ALONG THE CONTDVD.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR WILL MAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PCPN...DECREASING OR ENDING LATE.  THE SOUNDING PROFILE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS SHOWS TEMPS ALOFT WARMING AND THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST YET.

ON SUN THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NR CENTRAL CA WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  IN THE AFTERNOON A
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE ERN PLAINS AS AN UPR TROF MOVES
FROM ERN MT INTO MN.  THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENERAL LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SW MTNS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE DAY. SUN NIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS HELPING ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG THE
ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVR THE ERN MTNS AND
FREMONT COUNTY...AND A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MAY END UP NEEDING HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NR THE
ERN MTNS.  HEAVY SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FALLING OVR THE SAN
JUAN MTNS SUN NIGHT...WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS. PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON MON THE UPR SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.  THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY ON
MON...BUT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTDVD AS THE MSTR STREAM
CONTINUES INTO THAT AREA.  MON NIGHT THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO
CO...WITH SNOW EXPECTED FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS. ON TUE THE UPR TROF WL
BE SLOWING PASSING OVR THE AREA WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU EARLY
IN THE DAY.  THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE
AREA AND IT HOLDS ONTO PCPN THRU THE DAY WED...WHILE THE GFS
DECREASES AND THEN ENDS PCPN BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THU THEN LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN AND
AROUND THE TERMINAL AREA. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED TO NEAR 1OOO FEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
BY 09-10Z TONIGHT WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 271813
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1113 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BACA COUNTY.
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
LESS THAN AN INCH.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED FOR EXPIRATIONS OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVR THE ERN
MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS NWS PUEBLO
NOTING AN ADDITIONAL 2.8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT AS OF 4 AM
MST THIS MORNING.  ALSO...4 AM MST SURFACE TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
0F TO -15F AT TIMES.

OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...LESS PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AS PRECIPITATION FOCUS
SHIFTS TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS
APPEARANCE.

RECENT REAL-TIME AND SATELLITE DATA...PV ANALYSIS AND NEAR/SHORT-
TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT FORECAST DISTRICT WILL
EXPERIENCE DECREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL(ESPECIALLY MANY
EASTERN SECTION LOCATIONS TODAY) IN COMBINATION WITH WELL BELOW LATE
FEBRUARY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BACA COUNTY WHERE WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR LOWER
GRADE POPS IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED BELOW SEASONAL LATE
FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES.  OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE SHORT-TERM IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  ALSO...INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM MT...SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL CA ON
SAT...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE CONTDVD ALLOWING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SAN JUAN MTNS.  ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR ON SAT AFTERNOON...E TO SE SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THE SERN PLAINS LOOK MOSTLY DRY ON SAT AND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY WL PROBABLY JUST SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN.

SAT NIGHT THE MTNS WL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWFALL...WITHE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS BEING ALONG THE CONTDVD.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR WILL MAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PCPN...DECREASING OR ENDING LATE.  THE SOUNDING PROFILE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS SHOWS TEMPS ALOFT WARMING AND THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST YET.

ON SUN THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NR CENTRAL CA WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  IN THE AFTERNOON A
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE ERN PLAINS AS AN UPR TROF MOVES
FROM ERN MT INTO MN.  THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENERAL LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SW MTNS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE DAY. SUN NIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS HELPING ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG THE
ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVR THE ERN MTNS AND
FREMONT COUNTY...AND A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MAY END UP NEEDING HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NR THE
ERN MTNS.  HEAVY SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FALLING OVR THE SAN
JUAN MTNS SUN NIGHT...WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS. PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON MON THE UPR SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.  THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY ON
MON...BUT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTDVD AS THE MSTR STREAM
CONTINUES INTO THAT AREA.  MON NIGHT THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO
CO...WITH SNOW EXPECTED FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS. ON TUE THE UPR TROF WL
BE SLOWING PASSING OVR THE AREA WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU EARLY
IN THE DAY.  THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE
AREA AND IT HOLDS ONTO PCPN THRU THE DAY WED...WHILE THE GFS
DECREASES AND THEN ENDS PCPN BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THU THEN LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN AND
AROUND THE TERMINAL AREA. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED TO NEAR 1OOO FEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
BY 09-10Z TONIGHT WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271713
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1013 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 507 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED FOR EXPIRATIONS OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVR THE ERN
MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS NWS PUEBLO
NOTING AN ADDITIONAL 2.8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT AS OF 4 AM
MST THIS MORNING.  ALSO...4 AM MST SURFACE TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
0F TO -15F AT TIMES.

OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...LESS PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AS PRECIPITATION FOCUS
SHIFTS TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS
APPEARANCE.

RECENT REAL-TIME AND SATELLITE DATA...PV ANALYSIS AND NEAR/SHORT-
TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT FORECAST DISTRICT WILL
EXPERIENCE DECREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL(ESPECIALLY MANY
EASTERN SECTION LOCATIONS TODAY) IN COMBINATION WITH WELL BELOW LATE
FEBRUARY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BACA COUNTY WHERE WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR LOWER
GRADE POPS IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED BELOW SEASONAL LATE
FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES.  OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE SHORT-TERM IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  ALSO...INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM MT...SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL CA ON
SAT...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE CONTDVD ALLOWING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SAN JUAN MTNS.  ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR ON SAT AFTERNOON...E TO SE SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THE SERN PLAINS LOOK MOSTLY DRY ON SAT AND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY WL PROBABLY JUST SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN.

SAT NIGHT THE MTNS WL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWFALL...WITHE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS BEING ALONG THE CONTDVD.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR WILL MAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PCPN...DECREASING OR ENDING LATE.  THE SOUNDING PROFILE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS SHOWS TEMPS ALOFT WARMING AND THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST YET.

ON SUN THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NR CENTRAL CA WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  IN THE AFTERNOON A
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE ERN PLAINS AS AN UPR TROF MOVES
FROM ERN MT INTO MN.  THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENERAL LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SW MTNS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE DAY. SUN NIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS HELPING ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG THE
ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVR THE ERN MTNS AND
FREMONT COUNTY...AND A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MAY END UP NEEDING HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NR THE
ERN MTNS.  HEAVY SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FALLING OVR THE SAN
JUAN MTNS SUN NIGHT...WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS. PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON MON THE UPR SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.  THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY ON
MON...BUT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTDVD AS THE MSTR STREAM
CONTINUES INTO THAT AREA.  MON NIGHT THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO
CO...WITH SNOW EXPECTED FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS. ON TUE THE UPR TROF WL
BE SLOWING PASSING OVR THE AREA WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU EARLY
IN THE DAY.  THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE
AREA AND IT HOLDS ONTO PCPN THRU THE DAY WED...WHILE THE GFS
DECREASES AND THEN ENDS PCPN BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THU THEN LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN AND
AROUND THE TERMINAL AREA. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED TO NEAR 1OOO FEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
BY 09-10Z TONIGHT WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271713
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1013 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 507 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED FOR EXPIRATIONS OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVR THE ERN
MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS NWS PUEBLO
NOTING AN ADDITIONAL 2.8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT AS OF 4 AM
MST THIS MORNING.  ALSO...4 AM MST SURFACE TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
0F TO -15F AT TIMES.

OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...LESS PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AS PRECIPITATION FOCUS
SHIFTS TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS
APPEARANCE.

RECENT REAL-TIME AND SATELLITE DATA...PV ANALYSIS AND NEAR/SHORT-
TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT FORECAST DISTRICT WILL
EXPERIENCE DECREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL(ESPECIALLY MANY
EASTERN SECTION LOCATIONS TODAY) IN COMBINATION WITH WELL BELOW LATE
FEBRUARY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BACA COUNTY WHERE WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR LOWER
GRADE POPS IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED BELOW SEASONAL LATE
FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES.  OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE SHORT-TERM IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  ALSO...INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM MT...SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL CA ON
SAT...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE CONTDVD ALLOWING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SAN JUAN MTNS.  ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR ON SAT AFTERNOON...E TO SE SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THE SERN PLAINS LOOK MOSTLY DRY ON SAT AND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY WL PROBABLY JUST SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN.

SAT NIGHT THE MTNS WL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWFALL...WITHE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS BEING ALONG THE CONTDVD.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR WILL MAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PCPN...DECREASING OR ENDING LATE.  THE SOUNDING PROFILE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS SHOWS TEMPS ALOFT WARMING AND THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST YET.

ON SUN THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NR CENTRAL CA WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  IN THE AFTERNOON A
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE ERN PLAINS AS AN UPR TROF MOVES
FROM ERN MT INTO MN.  THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENERAL LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SW MTNS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE DAY. SUN NIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS HELPING ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG THE
ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVR THE ERN MTNS AND
FREMONT COUNTY...AND A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MAY END UP NEEDING HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NR THE
ERN MTNS.  HEAVY SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FALLING OVR THE SAN
JUAN MTNS SUN NIGHT...WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS. PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON MON THE UPR SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.  THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY ON
MON...BUT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTDVD AS THE MSTR STREAM
CONTINUES INTO THAT AREA.  MON NIGHT THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO
CO...WITH SNOW EXPECTED FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS. ON TUE THE UPR TROF WL
BE SLOWING PASSING OVR THE AREA WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU EARLY
IN THE DAY.  THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE
AREA AND IT HOLDS ONTO PCPN THRU THE DAY WED...WHILE THE GFS
DECREASES AND THEN ENDS PCPN BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THU THEN LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN AND
AROUND THE TERMINAL AREA. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED TO NEAR 1OOO FEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
BY 09-10Z TONIGHT WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 271713
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1013 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 507 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED FOR EXPIRATIONS OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVR THE ERN
MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS NWS PUEBLO
NOTING AN ADDITIONAL 2.8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT AS OF 4 AM
MST THIS MORNING.  ALSO...4 AM MST SURFACE TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
0F TO -15F AT TIMES.

OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...LESS PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AS PRECIPITATION FOCUS
SHIFTS TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS
APPEARANCE.

RECENT REAL-TIME AND SATELLITE DATA...PV ANALYSIS AND NEAR/SHORT-
TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT FORECAST DISTRICT WILL
EXPERIENCE DECREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL(ESPECIALLY MANY
EASTERN SECTION LOCATIONS TODAY) IN COMBINATION WITH WELL BELOW LATE
FEBRUARY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BACA COUNTY WHERE WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR LOWER
GRADE POPS IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED BELOW SEASONAL LATE
FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES.  OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE SHORT-TERM IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  ALSO...INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM MT...SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL CA ON
SAT...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE CONTDVD ALLOWING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SAN JUAN MTNS.  ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR ON SAT AFTERNOON...E TO SE SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THE SERN PLAINS LOOK MOSTLY DRY ON SAT AND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY WL PROBABLY JUST SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN.

SAT NIGHT THE MTNS WL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWFALL...WITHE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS BEING ALONG THE CONTDVD.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR WILL MAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PCPN...DECREASING OR ENDING LATE.  THE SOUNDING PROFILE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS SHOWS TEMPS ALOFT WARMING AND THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST YET.

ON SUN THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NR CENTRAL CA WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  IN THE AFTERNOON A
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE ERN PLAINS AS AN UPR TROF MOVES
FROM ERN MT INTO MN.  THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENERAL LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SW MTNS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE DAY. SUN NIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS HELPING ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG THE
ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVR THE ERN MTNS AND
FREMONT COUNTY...AND A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MAY END UP NEEDING HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NR THE
ERN MTNS.  HEAVY SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FALLING OVR THE SAN
JUAN MTNS SUN NIGHT...WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS. PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON MON THE UPR SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.  THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY ON
MON...BUT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTDVD AS THE MSTR STREAM
CONTINUES INTO THAT AREA.  MON NIGHT THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO
CO...WITH SNOW EXPECTED FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS. ON TUE THE UPR TROF WL
BE SLOWING PASSING OVR THE AREA WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU EARLY
IN THE DAY.  THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE
AREA AND IT HOLDS ONTO PCPN THRU THE DAY WED...WHILE THE GFS
DECREASES AND THEN ENDS PCPN BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THU THEN LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN AND
AROUND THE TERMINAL AREA. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED TO NEAR 1OOO FEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
BY 09-10Z TONIGHT WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271713
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1013 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 507 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED FOR EXPIRATIONS OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVR THE ERN
MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS NWS PUEBLO
NOTING AN ADDITIONAL 2.8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT AS OF 4 AM
MST THIS MORNING.  ALSO...4 AM MST SURFACE TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
0F TO -15F AT TIMES.

OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...LESS PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AS PRECIPITATION FOCUS
SHIFTS TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS
APPEARANCE.

RECENT REAL-TIME AND SATELLITE DATA...PV ANALYSIS AND NEAR/SHORT-
TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT FORECAST DISTRICT WILL
EXPERIENCE DECREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL(ESPECIALLY MANY
EASTERN SECTION LOCATIONS TODAY) IN COMBINATION WITH WELL BELOW LATE
FEBRUARY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BACA COUNTY WHERE WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR LOWER
GRADE POPS IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED BELOW SEASONAL LATE
FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES.  OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE SHORT-TERM IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  ALSO...INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM MT...SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL CA ON
SAT...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE CONTDVD ALLOWING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SAN JUAN MTNS.  ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR ON SAT AFTERNOON...E TO SE SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THE SERN PLAINS LOOK MOSTLY DRY ON SAT AND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY WL PROBABLY JUST SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN.

SAT NIGHT THE MTNS WL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWFALL...WITHE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS BEING ALONG THE CONTDVD.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR WILL MAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PCPN...DECREASING OR ENDING LATE.  THE SOUNDING PROFILE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS SHOWS TEMPS ALOFT WARMING AND THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST YET.

ON SUN THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NR CENTRAL CA WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  IN THE AFTERNOON A
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE ERN PLAINS AS AN UPR TROF MOVES
FROM ERN MT INTO MN.  THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENERAL LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SW MTNS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE DAY. SUN NIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS HELPING ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG THE
ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVR THE ERN MTNS AND
FREMONT COUNTY...AND A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MAY END UP NEEDING HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NR THE
ERN MTNS.  HEAVY SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FALLING OVR THE SAN
JUAN MTNS SUN NIGHT...WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS. PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON MON THE UPR SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.  THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY ON
MON...BUT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTDVD AS THE MSTR STREAM
CONTINUES INTO THAT AREA.  MON NIGHT THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO
CO...WITH SNOW EXPECTED FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS. ON TUE THE UPR TROF WL
BE SLOWING PASSING OVR THE AREA WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU EARLY
IN THE DAY.  THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE
AREA AND IT HOLDS ONTO PCPN THRU THE DAY WED...WHILE THE GFS
DECREASES AND THEN ENDS PCPN BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THU THEN LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

KALS...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN AND
AROUND THE TERMINAL AREA. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 07Z.

KCOS AND KPUB...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWERED TO NEAR 1OOO FEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
BY 09-10Z TONIGHT WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY





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