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000
FXUS65 KPUB 261715
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ISOLATED POPS FROM THE CENTRAL MTS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DRY...WARMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST AND MODERATING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.

BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.  HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS WITH THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOUGH
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS THE SE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND SHOULD YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT OVR CO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW...LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVR SOME
OF THE MTN AREAS. OTHERWISE...WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI WITH
HIGHS BEING 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE. ON SAT THE UPR RIDGE
MOVES OVR CO AND PUSHES EVEN WARMER AIR OVR THE AREA. THIS WL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MTN...THRU THE DAKOTA
AND INTO MN.  THIS WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING.  DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH THE FRONT AT
THIS TIME IF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CORRECT.  HOWEVER IF YOU BELIEVE
THE ECMWF...THE UPR TROF IS DEEPER AND MOVES ACRS CO SAT NIGHT WITH
PCPN ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE SPREADING INTO SOME OF THE ERN
MTNS. THE ECMWF IS THEN DRY ACRS THE AREA ON SUN AS THE UPR TROF
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.  HOWEVER THE GFS HAS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SAT.

ON MON A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PCPN..MAINLY  TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON MON.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE FLOW OVR
MT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WX OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BRINGING MSTR
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD OVR THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE MTN AREAS.  MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WED AS THE GFS MOVES A FRONT THRU THE SERN
PLAINS EARLY WED BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN TO THE SERN
PLAINS AND ERN MTNS ON WED....WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY WESTERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB
AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 261715
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ISOLATED POPS FROM THE CENTRAL MTS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DRY...WARMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST AND MODERATING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.

BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.  HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS WITH THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOUGH
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS THE SE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND SHOULD YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT OVR CO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW...LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVR SOME
OF THE MTN AREAS. OTHERWISE...WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI WITH
HIGHS BEING 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE. ON SAT THE UPR RIDGE
MOVES OVR CO AND PUSHES EVEN WARMER AIR OVR THE AREA. THIS WL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MTN...THRU THE DAKOTA
AND INTO MN.  THIS WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING.  DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH THE FRONT AT
THIS TIME IF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CORRECT.  HOWEVER IF YOU BELIEVE
THE ECMWF...THE UPR TROF IS DEEPER AND MOVES ACRS CO SAT NIGHT WITH
PCPN ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE SPREADING INTO SOME OF THE ERN
MTNS. THE ECMWF IS THEN DRY ACRS THE AREA ON SUN AS THE UPR TROF
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.  HOWEVER THE GFS HAS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SAT.

ON MON A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PCPN..MAINLY  TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON MON.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE FLOW OVR
MT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WX OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BRINGING MSTR
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD OVR THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE MTN AREAS.  MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WED AS THE GFS MOVES A FRONT THRU THE SERN
PLAINS EARLY WED BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN TO THE SERN
PLAINS AND ERN MTNS ON WED....WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY WESTERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB
AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261540
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
940 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ISOLATED POPS FROM THE CENTRAL MTS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DRY...WARMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST AND MODERATING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.

BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.  HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS WITH THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOUGH
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS THE SE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND SHOULD YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT OVR CO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW...LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVR SOME
OF THE MTN AREAS. OTHERWISE...WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI WITH
HIGHS BEING 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE. ON SAT THE UPR RIDGE
MOVES OVR CO AND PUSHES EVEN WARMER AIR OVR THE AREA. THIS WL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MTN...THRU THE DAKOTA
AND INTO MN.  THIS WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING.  DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH THE FRONT AT
THIS TIME IF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CORRECT.  HOWEVER IF YOU BELIEVE
THE ECMWF...THE UPR TROF IS DEEPER AND MOVES ACRS CO SAT NIGHT WITH
PCPN ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE SPREADING INTO SOME OF THE ERN
MTNS. THE ECMWF IS THEN DRY ACRS THE AREA ON SUN AS THE UPR TROF
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.  HOWEVER THE GFS HAS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SAT.

ON MON A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PCPN..MAINLY  TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON MON.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE FLOW OVR
MT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WX OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BRINGING MSTR
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD OVR THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE MTN AREAS.  MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WED AS THE GFS MOVES A FRONT THRU THE SERN
PLAINS EARLY WED BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN TO THE SERN
PLAINS AND ERN MTNS ON WED....WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY WESTERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261540
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
940 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ISOLATED POPS FROM THE CENTRAL MTS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DRY...WARMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST AND MODERATING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.

BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.  HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS WITH THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOUGH
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS THE SE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND SHOULD YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT OVR CO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW...LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVR SOME
OF THE MTN AREAS. OTHERWISE...WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI WITH
HIGHS BEING 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE. ON SAT THE UPR RIDGE
MOVES OVR CO AND PUSHES EVEN WARMER AIR OVR THE AREA. THIS WL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MTN...THRU THE DAKOTA
AND INTO MN.  THIS WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING.  DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH THE FRONT AT
THIS TIME IF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CORRECT.  HOWEVER IF YOU BELIEVE
THE ECMWF...THE UPR TROF IS DEEPER AND MOVES ACRS CO SAT NIGHT WITH
PCPN ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE SPREADING INTO SOME OF THE ERN
MTNS. THE ECMWF IS THEN DRY ACRS THE AREA ON SUN AS THE UPR TROF
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.  HOWEVER THE GFS HAS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SAT.

ON MON A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PCPN..MAINLY  TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON MON.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE FLOW OVR
MT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WX OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BRINGING MSTR
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD OVR THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE MTN AREAS.  MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WED AS THE GFS MOVES A FRONT THRU THE SERN
PLAINS EARLY WED BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN TO THE SERN
PLAINS AND ERN MTNS ON WED....WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY WESTERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 261108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
508 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST AND MODERATING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.

BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.  HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS WITH THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOUGH
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS THE SE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND SHOULD YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT OVR CO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW...LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVR SOME
OF THE MTN AREAS. OTHERWISE...WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI WITH
HIGHS BEING 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE. ON SAT THE UPR RIDGE
MOVES OVR CO AND PUSHES EVEN WARMER AIR OVR THE AREA. THIS WL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MTN...THRU THE DAKOTA
AND INTO MN.  THIS WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING.  DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH THE FRONT AT
THIS TIME IF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CORRECT.  HOWEVER IF YOU BELIEVE
THE ECMWF...THE UPR TROF IS DEEPER AND MOVES ACRS CO SAT NIGHT WITH
PCPN ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE SPREADING INTO SOME OF THE ERN
MTNS. THE ECMWF IS THEN DRY ACRS THE AREA ON SUN AS THE UPR TROF
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.  HOWEVER THE GFS HAS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SAT.

ON MON A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PCPN..MAINLY  TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON MON.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE FLOW OVR
MT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WX OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BRINGING MSTR
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD OVR THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE MTN AREAS.  MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WED AS THE GFS MOVES A FRONT THRU THE SERN
PLAINS EARLY WED BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN TO THE SERN
PLAINS AND ERN MTNS ON WED....WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY WESTERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 261108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
508 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST AND MODERATING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.

BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.  HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS WITH THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOUGH
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS THE SE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND SHOULD YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT OVR CO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW...LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVR SOME
OF THE MTN AREAS. OTHERWISE...WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI WITH
HIGHS BEING 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE. ON SAT THE UPR RIDGE
MOVES OVR CO AND PUSHES EVEN WARMER AIR OVR THE AREA. THIS WL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MTN...THRU THE DAKOTA
AND INTO MN.  THIS WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING.  DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH THE FRONT AT
THIS TIME IF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CORRECT.  HOWEVER IF YOU BELIEVE
THE ECMWF...THE UPR TROF IS DEEPER AND MOVES ACRS CO SAT NIGHT WITH
PCPN ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE SPREADING INTO SOME OF THE ERN
MTNS. THE ECMWF IS THEN DRY ACRS THE AREA ON SUN AS THE UPR TROF
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.  HOWEVER THE GFS HAS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SAT.

ON MON A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PCPN..MAINLY  TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON MON.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE FLOW OVR
MT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WX OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BRINGING MSTR
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD OVR THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE MTN AREAS.  MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WED AS THE GFS MOVES A FRONT THRU THE SERN
PLAINS EARLY WED BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN TO THE SERN
PLAINS AND ERN MTNS ON WED....WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY WESTERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
508 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST AND MODERATING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.

BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.  HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS WITH THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOUGH
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS THE SE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND SHOULD YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT OVR CO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW...LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVR SOME
OF THE MTN AREAS. OTHERWISE...WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI WITH
HIGHS BEING 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE. ON SAT THE UPR RIDGE
MOVES OVR CO AND PUSHES EVEN WARMER AIR OVR THE AREA. THIS WL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MTN...THRU THE DAKOTA
AND INTO MN.  THIS WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING.  DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH THE FRONT AT
THIS TIME IF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CORRECT.  HOWEVER IF YOU BELIEVE
THE ECMWF...THE UPR TROF IS DEEPER AND MOVES ACRS CO SAT NIGHT WITH
PCPN ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE SPREADING INTO SOME OF THE ERN
MTNS. THE ECMWF IS THEN DRY ACRS THE AREA ON SUN AS THE UPR TROF
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.  HOWEVER THE GFS HAS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SAT.

ON MON A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PCPN..MAINLY  TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON MON.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE FLOW OVR
MT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WX OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BRINGING MSTR
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD OVR THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE MTN AREAS.  MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WED AS THE GFS MOVES A FRONT THRU THE SERN
PLAINS EARLY WED BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN TO THE SERN
PLAINS AND ERN MTNS ON WED....WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY WESTERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 261108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
508 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST AND MODERATING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.

BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.  HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS WITH THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOUGH
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS THE SE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND SHOULD YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT OVR CO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW...LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVR SOME
OF THE MTN AREAS. OTHERWISE...WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI WITH
HIGHS BEING 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE. ON SAT THE UPR RIDGE
MOVES OVR CO AND PUSHES EVEN WARMER AIR OVR THE AREA. THIS WL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MTN...THRU THE DAKOTA
AND INTO MN.  THIS WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING.  DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH THE FRONT AT
THIS TIME IF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CORRECT.  HOWEVER IF YOU BELIEVE
THE ECMWF...THE UPR TROF IS DEEPER AND MOVES ACRS CO SAT NIGHT WITH
PCPN ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE SPREADING INTO SOME OF THE ERN
MTNS. THE ECMWF IS THEN DRY ACRS THE AREA ON SUN AS THE UPR TROF
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.  HOWEVER THE GFS HAS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SAT.

ON MON A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PCPN..MAINLY  TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON MON.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE FLOW OVR
MT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WX OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BRINGING MSTR
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD OVR THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE MTN AREAS.  MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WED AS THE GFS MOVES A FRONT THRU THE SERN
PLAINS EARLY WED BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN TO THE SERN
PLAINS AND ERN MTNS ON WED....WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY WESTERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 260514
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND HIGH-RES MODEL
TRENDS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP CONTINUE TO WRAP UP FROM N TO S AND BE
LARGELY DONE BU ABOUT 03Z. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENTLY...THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 3 PM...AND VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WERE EDGING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW LEVEL DIPS TO RIGHT AROUND 4600 FEET
UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 3
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
MORNING RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH THE SFC
FRONT...BUT AS OF 3 PM WERE CLIMBING BACK UP TO AROUND
40F...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE 4 CORNERS
AREA TONIGHT...AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT
SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMING CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW RIGHT
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS
AND TERRAIN. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
VERY MINIMAL POPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
THEN DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE STATE. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE
PLAINS.

LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH COLORADO SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS MOST
OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS PRINTING OUT SOME QPF OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON THE PLAINS.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A TREND TOWARD DIURNAL QPF DUE TO CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER THROUGH THIS SAME
PERIOD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES.
CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH WIND FORECAST ON THURSDAY. NAM12/MET
GUIDANCE IS THE LONE HOLD OUT FORECASTING SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR KCOS
AND KPUB DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH RES MODELS AND GFS/MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING.
GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS STILL PRETTY STRONG ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE SIDED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR KCOS AND KPUB THURS MORNING. AS GRADIENT ALOFT
RELAXES...THINK A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL WINDS KICK IN AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AT KALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
ON THURSDAY. WILL SEE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 260514
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND HIGH-RES MODEL
TRENDS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP CONTINUE TO WRAP UP FROM N TO S AND BE
LARGELY DONE BU ABOUT 03Z. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENTLY...THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 3 PM...AND VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WERE EDGING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW LEVEL DIPS TO RIGHT AROUND 4600 FEET
UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 3
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
MORNING RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH THE SFC
FRONT...BUT AS OF 3 PM WERE CLIMBING BACK UP TO AROUND
40F...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE 4 CORNERS
AREA TONIGHT...AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT
SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMING CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW RIGHT
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS
AND TERRAIN. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
VERY MINIMAL POPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
THEN DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE STATE. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE
PLAINS.

LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH COLORADO SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS MOST
OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS PRINTING OUT SOME QPF OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON THE PLAINS.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A TREND TOWARD DIURNAL QPF DUE TO CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER THROUGH THIS SAME
PERIOD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES.
CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH WIND FORECAST ON THURSDAY. NAM12/MET
GUIDANCE IS THE LONE HOLD OUT FORECASTING SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR KCOS
AND KPUB DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH RES MODELS AND GFS/MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING.
GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS STILL PRETTY STRONG ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE SIDED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR KCOS AND KPUB THURS MORNING. AS GRADIENT ALOFT
RELAXES...THINK A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL WINDS KICK IN AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AT KALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
ON THURSDAY. WILL SEE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 252308
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
508 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND HIGH-RES MODEL
TRENDS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP CONTINUE TO WRAP UP FROM N TO S AND BE
LARGELY DONE BU ABOUT 03Z. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENTLY...THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 3 PM...AND VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WERE EDGING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW LEVEL DIPS TO RIGHT AROUND 4600 FEET
UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 3
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
MORNING RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH THE SFC
FRONT...BUT AS OF 3 PM WERE CLIMBING BACK UP TO AROUND
40F...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE 4 CORNERS
AREA TONIGHT...AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT
SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMING CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW RIGHT
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS
AND TERRAIN. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
VERY MINIMAL POPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
THEN DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE STATE. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE
PLAINS.

LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH COLORADO SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS MOST
OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS PRINTING OUT SOME QPF OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON THE PLAINS.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A TREND TOWARD DIURNAL QPF DUE TO CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER THROUGH THIS SAME
PERIOD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT QUICKLY DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...PRODUCING A 2-3 HR WINDOW OF VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND WILL CONTINUE SAGGING TO THE
S-SE THOUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK
NW FLOW ALOFT THEN SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. SAVE FOR THE
WETS...SANGRES AND RATON MESA OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 252308
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
508 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND HIGH-RES MODEL
TRENDS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP CONTINUE TO WRAP UP FROM N TO S AND BE
LARGELY DONE BU ABOUT 03Z. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENTLY...THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 3 PM...AND VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WERE EDGING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW LEVEL DIPS TO RIGHT AROUND 4600 FEET
UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 3
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
MORNING RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH THE SFC
FRONT...BUT AS OF 3 PM WERE CLIMBING BACK UP TO AROUND
40F...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE 4 CORNERS
AREA TONIGHT...AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT
SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMING CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW RIGHT
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS
AND TERRAIN. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
VERY MINIMAL POPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
THEN DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE STATE. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE
PLAINS.

LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH COLORADO SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS MOST
OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS PRINTING OUT SOME QPF OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON THE PLAINS.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A TREND TOWARD DIURNAL QPF DUE TO CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER THROUGH THIS SAME
PERIOD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT QUICKLY DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...PRODUCING A 2-3 HR WINDOW OF VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND WILL CONTINUE SAGGING TO THE
S-SE THOUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK
NW FLOW ALOFT THEN SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. SAVE FOR THE
WETS...SANGRES AND RATON MESA OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 252308
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
508 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND HIGH-RES MODEL
TRENDS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP CONTINUE TO WRAP UP FROM N TO S AND BE
LARGELY DONE BU ABOUT 03Z. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENTLY...THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 3 PM...AND VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WERE EDGING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW LEVEL DIPS TO RIGHT AROUND 4600 FEET
UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 3
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
MORNING RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH THE SFC
FRONT...BUT AS OF 3 PM WERE CLIMBING BACK UP TO AROUND
40F...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE 4 CORNERS
AREA TONIGHT...AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT
SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMING CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW RIGHT
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS
AND TERRAIN. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
VERY MINIMAL POPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
THEN DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE STATE. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE
PLAINS.

LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH COLORADO SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS MOST
OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS PRINTING OUT SOME QPF OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON THE PLAINS.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A TREND TOWARD DIURNAL QPF DUE TO CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER THROUGH THIS SAME
PERIOD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT QUICKLY DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...PRODUCING A 2-3 HR WINDOW OF VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND WILL CONTINUE SAGGING TO THE
S-SE THOUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK
NW FLOW ALOFT THEN SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. SAVE FOR THE
WETS...SANGRES AND RATON MESA OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 252115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENTLY...THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 3 PM...AND VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WERE EDGING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW LEVEL DIPS TO RIGHT AROUND 4600 FEET
UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 3
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
MORNING RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH THE SFC
FRONT...BUT AS OF 3 PM WERE CLIMBING BACK UP TO AROUND
40F...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE 4 CORNERS
AREA TONIGHT...AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT
SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMING CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW RIGHT
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS
AND TERRAIN. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
VERY MINIMAL POPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
THEN DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE STATE. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE
PLAINS.

LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH COLORADO SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS MOST
OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS PRINTING OUT SOME QPF OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON THE PLAINS.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A TREND TOWARD DIURNAL QPF DUE TO CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER THROUGH THIS SAME
PERIOD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT QUICKLY DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...PRODUCING A 2-3 HR WINDOW OF VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND WILL CONTINUE SAGGING TO THE
S-SE THOUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK
NW FLOW ALOFT THEN SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. SAVE FOR THE
WETS...SANGRES AND RATON MESA OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 252115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENTLY...THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 3 PM...AND VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WERE EDGING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW LEVEL DIPS TO RIGHT AROUND 4600 FEET
UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 3
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
MORNING RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH THE SFC
FRONT...BUT AS OF 3 PM WERE CLIMBING BACK UP TO AROUND
40F...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE 4 CORNERS
AREA TONIGHT...AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT
SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMING CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW RIGHT
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS
AND TERRAIN. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
VERY MINIMAL POPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
THEN DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE STATE. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE
PLAINS.

LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH COLORADO SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS MOST
OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS PRINTING OUT SOME QPF OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON THE PLAINS.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A TREND TOWARD DIURNAL QPF DUE TO CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER THROUGH THIS SAME
PERIOD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT QUICKLY DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...PRODUCING A 2-3 HR WINDOW OF VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND WILL CONTINUE SAGGING TO THE
S-SE THOUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK
NW FLOW ALOFT THEN SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. SAVE FOR THE
WETS...SANGRES AND RATON MESA OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 252115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENTLY...THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 3 PM...AND VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WERE EDGING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW LEVEL DIPS TO RIGHT AROUND 4600 FEET
UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 3
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
MORNING RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH THE SFC
FRONT...BUT AS OF 3 PM WERE CLIMBING BACK UP TO AROUND
40F...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE 4 CORNERS
AREA TONIGHT...AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT
SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMING CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW RIGHT
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS
AND TERRAIN. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
VERY MINIMAL POPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
THEN DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE STATE. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE
PLAINS.

LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH COLORADO SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS MOST
OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS PRINTING OUT SOME QPF OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON THE PLAINS.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A TREND TOWARD DIURNAL QPF DUE TO CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER THROUGH THIS SAME
PERIOD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT QUICKLY DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...PRODUCING A 2-3 HR WINDOW OF VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND WILL CONTINUE SAGGING TO THE
S-SE THOUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK
NW FLOW ALOFT THEN SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. SAVE FOR THE
WETS...SANGRES AND RATON MESA OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 251753
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1153 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING FROM THE FORECAST...AND BUMPED UP
SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SPOTTER REPORTS. QUICK MOVING
FRONT AND WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF RATHER QUICKLY
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WY INTO CO THIS
MORNING WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU SOUTHEAST
CO.  IN THE EARLY EVENING THE UPR TROF AXIS WL MOVE INTO SW KS AND
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITH DRY N TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...AND THIS
WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.  WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROF INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONT...PCPN WL SPREAD TO THE ERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. WL KEEP THE HIGH PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...FIRST OVR
THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA. IN THE MORNING
HOURS...NE TO E LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS BECOME MORNING
NORTHERLY ACRS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS.  THIS FLOW WL
FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AT LEAST THRU MIDAFTERNOON...AND THE SERN
FOOTHILLS AND SRN BORDER AREA FOR ENHANCED PCPN.  WITH LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON BEING STEEP...7.5C/KM TO AROUND 9C/KM ALONG THE MTNS
WL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. H7 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO COOL TO ABOUT -7C THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PCPN MAKES THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST CHALLENGING...BUT
OVER AND NR THE MTNS THERE COULD BE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE PCPN WL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND
MODERATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND ARE NO
LONGER PRINTING OUT ANY QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG WITH H7 WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...IS FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER
LOCATION OF SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE A DEVELOPING SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS POPS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. AT
ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING GUSTY N-NE WINDS AT 25-30 KTS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS THROUGH 22-24Z...AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KPUB THROUGH 24Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. KALS SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
VALLEY EDGES THIS AFTN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 251753
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1153 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING FROM THE FORECAST...AND BUMPED UP
SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SPOTTER REPORTS. QUICK MOVING
FRONT AND WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF RATHER QUICKLY
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WY INTO CO THIS
MORNING WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU SOUTHEAST
CO.  IN THE EARLY EVENING THE UPR TROF AXIS WL MOVE INTO SW KS AND
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITH DRY N TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...AND THIS
WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.  WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROF INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONT...PCPN WL SPREAD TO THE ERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. WL KEEP THE HIGH PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...FIRST OVR
THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA. IN THE MORNING
HOURS...NE TO E LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS BECOME MORNING
NORTHERLY ACRS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS.  THIS FLOW WL
FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AT LEAST THRU MIDAFTERNOON...AND THE SERN
FOOTHILLS AND SRN BORDER AREA FOR ENHANCED PCPN.  WITH LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON BEING STEEP...7.5C/KM TO AROUND 9C/KM ALONG THE MTNS
WL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. H7 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO COOL TO ABOUT -7C THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PCPN MAKES THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST CHALLENGING...BUT
OVER AND NR THE MTNS THERE COULD BE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE PCPN WL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND
MODERATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND ARE NO
LONGER PRINTING OUT ANY QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG WITH H7 WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...IS FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER
LOCATION OF SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE A DEVELOPING SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS POPS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. AT
ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING GUSTY N-NE WINDS AT 25-30 KTS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS THROUGH 22-24Z...AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KPUB THROUGH 24Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. KALS SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
VALLEY EDGES THIS AFTN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 251753
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1153 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING FROM THE FORECAST...AND BUMPED UP
SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SPOTTER REPORTS. QUICK MOVING
FRONT AND WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF RATHER QUICKLY
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WY INTO CO THIS
MORNING WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU SOUTHEAST
CO.  IN THE EARLY EVENING THE UPR TROF AXIS WL MOVE INTO SW KS AND
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITH DRY N TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...AND THIS
WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.  WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROF INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONT...PCPN WL SPREAD TO THE ERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. WL KEEP THE HIGH PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...FIRST OVR
THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA. IN THE MORNING
HOURS...NE TO E LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS BECOME MORNING
NORTHERLY ACRS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS.  THIS FLOW WL
FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AT LEAST THRU MIDAFTERNOON...AND THE SERN
FOOTHILLS AND SRN BORDER AREA FOR ENHANCED PCPN.  WITH LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON BEING STEEP...7.5C/KM TO AROUND 9C/KM ALONG THE MTNS
WL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. H7 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO COOL TO ABOUT -7C THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PCPN MAKES THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST CHALLENGING...BUT
OVER AND NR THE MTNS THERE COULD BE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE PCPN WL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND
MODERATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND ARE NO
LONGER PRINTING OUT ANY QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG WITH H7 WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...IS FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER
LOCATION OF SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE A DEVELOPING SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS POPS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. AT
ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING GUSTY N-NE WINDS AT 25-30 KTS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS THROUGH 22-24Z...AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KPUB THROUGH 24Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. KALS SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
VALLEY EDGES THIS AFTN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 251753
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1153 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING FROM THE FORECAST...AND BUMPED UP
SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SPOTTER REPORTS. QUICK MOVING
FRONT AND WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF RATHER QUICKLY
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WY INTO CO THIS
MORNING WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU SOUTHEAST
CO.  IN THE EARLY EVENING THE UPR TROF AXIS WL MOVE INTO SW KS AND
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITH DRY N TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...AND THIS
WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.  WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROF INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONT...PCPN WL SPREAD TO THE ERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. WL KEEP THE HIGH PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...FIRST OVR
THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA. IN THE MORNING
HOURS...NE TO E LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS BECOME MORNING
NORTHERLY ACRS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS.  THIS FLOW WL
FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AT LEAST THRU MIDAFTERNOON...AND THE SERN
FOOTHILLS AND SRN BORDER AREA FOR ENHANCED PCPN.  WITH LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON BEING STEEP...7.5C/KM TO AROUND 9C/KM ALONG THE MTNS
WL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. H7 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO COOL TO ABOUT -7C THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PCPN MAKES THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST CHALLENGING...BUT
OVER AND NR THE MTNS THERE COULD BE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE PCPN WL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND
MODERATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND ARE NO
LONGER PRINTING OUT ANY QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG WITH H7 WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...IS FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER
LOCATION OF SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE A DEVELOPING SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS POPS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. AT
ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING GUSTY N-NE WINDS AT 25-30 KTS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS THROUGH 22-24Z...AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KPUB THROUGH 24Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. KALS SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
VALLEY EDGES THIS AFTN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 251723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WY INTO CO THIS
MORNING WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU SOUTHEAST
CO.  IN THE EARLY EVENING THE UPR TROF AXIS WL MOVE INTO SW KS AND
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITH DRY N TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...AND THIS
WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.  WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROF INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONT...PCPN WL SPREAD TO THE ERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. WL KEEP THE HIGH PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...FIRST OVR
THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA. IN THE MORNING
HOURS...NE TO E LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS BECOME MORNING
NORTHERLY ACRS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS.  THIS FLOW WL
FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AT LEAST THRU MIDAFTERNOON...AND THE SERN
FOOTHILLS AND SRN BORDER AREA FOR ENHANCED PCPN.  WITH LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON BEING STEEP...7.5C/KM TO AROUND 9C/KM ALONG THE MTNS
WL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. H7 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO COOL TO ABOUT -7C THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PCPN MAKES THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST CHALLENGING...BUT
OVER AND NR THE MTNS THERE COULD BE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE PCPN WL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND
MODERATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND ARE NO
LONGER PRINTING OUT ANY QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG WITH H7 WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...IS FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER
LOCATION OF SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE A DEVELOPING SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS POPS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. AT
ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING GUSTY N-NE WINDS AT 25-30 KTS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS THROUGH 22-24Z...AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KPUB THROUGH 24Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. KALS SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
VALLEY EDGES THIS AFTN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 251723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WY INTO CO THIS
MORNING WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU SOUTHEAST
CO.  IN THE EARLY EVENING THE UPR TROF AXIS WL MOVE INTO SW KS AND
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITH DRY N TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...AND THIS
WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.  WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROF INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONT...PCPN WL SPREAD TO THE ERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. WL KEEP THE HIGH PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...FIRST OVR
THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA. IN THE MORNING
HOURS...NE TO E LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS BECOME MORNING
NORTHERLY ACRS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS.  THIS FLOW WL
FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AT LEAST THRU MIDAFTERNOON...AND THE SERN
FOOTHILLS AND SRN BORDER AREA FOR ENHANCED PCPN.  WITH LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON BEING STEEP...7.5C/KM TO AROUND 9C/KM ALONG THE MTNS
WL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. H7 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO COOL TO ABOUT -7C THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PCPN MAKES THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST CHALLENGING...BUT
OVER AND NR THE MTNS THERE COULD BE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE PCPN WL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND
MODERATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND ARE NO
LONGER PRINTING OUT ANY QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG WITH H7 WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...IS FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER
LOCATION OF SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE A DEVELOPING SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS POPS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. AT
ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING GUSTY N-NE WINDS AT 25-30 KTS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS THROUGH 22-24Z...AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KPUB THROUGH 24Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. KALS SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
VALLEY EDGES THIS AFTN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 251723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WY INTO CO THIS
MORNING WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU SOUTHEAST
CO.  IN THE EARLY EVENING THE UPR TROF AXIS WL MOVE INTO SW KS AND
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITH DRY N TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...AND THIS
WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.  WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROF INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONT...PCPN WL SPREAD TO THE ERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. WL KEEP THE HIGH PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...FIRST OVR
THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA. IN THE MORNING
HOURS...NE TO E LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS BECOME MORNING
NORTHERLY ACRS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS.  THIS FLOW WL
FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AT LEAST THRU MIDAFTERNOON...AND THE SERN
FOOTHILLS AND SRN BORDER AREA FOR ENHANCED PCPN.  WITH LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON BEING STEEP...7.5C/KM TO AROUND 9C/KM ALONG THE MTNS
WL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. H7 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO COOL TO ABOUT -7C THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PCPN MAKES THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST CHALLENGING...BUT
OVER AND NR THE MTNS THERE COULD BE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE PCPN WL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND
MODERATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND ARE NO
LONGER PRINTING OUT ANY QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG WITH H7 WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...IS FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER
LOCATION OF SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE A DEVELOPING SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS POPS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. AT
ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING GUSTY N-NE WINDS AT 25-30 KTS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS THROUGH 22-24Z...AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KPUB THROUGH 24Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. KALS SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
VALLEY EDGES THIS AFTN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 251723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WY INTO CO THIS
MORNING WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU SOUTHEAST
CO.  IN THE EARLY EVENING THE UPR TROF AXIS WL MOVE INTO SW KS AND
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITH DRY N TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...AND THIS
WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.  WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROF INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONT...PCPN WL SPREAD TO THE ERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. WL KEEP THE HIGH PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...FIRST OVR
THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA. IN THE MORNING
HOURS...NE TO E LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS BECOME MORNING
NORTHERLY ACRS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS.  THIS FLOW WL
FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AT LEAST THRU MIDAFTERNOON...AND THE SERN
FOOTHILLS AND SRN BORDER AREA FOR ENHANCED PCPN.  WITH LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON BEING STEEP...7.5C/KM TO AROUND 9C/KM ALONG THE MTNS
WL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. H7 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO COOL TO ABOUT -7C THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PCPN MAKES THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST CHALLENGING...BUT
OVER AND NR THE MTNS THERE COULD BE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE PCPN WL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND
MODERATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND ARE NO
LONGER PRINTING OUT ANY QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG WITH H7 WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...IS FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER
LOCATION OF SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE A DEVELOPING SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS POPS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. AT
ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING GUSTY N-NE WINDS AT 25-30 KTS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS THROUGH 22-24Z...AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KPUB THROUGH 24Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. KALS SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
VALLEY EDGES THIS AFTN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250950
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WY INTO CO THIS
MORNING WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU SOUTHEAST
CO.  IN THE EARLY EVENING THE UPR TROF AXIS WL MOVE INTO SW KS AND
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITH DRY N TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...AND THIS
WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.  WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROF INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONT...PCPN WL SPREAD TO THE ERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. WL KEEP THE HIGH PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...FIRST OVR
THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA. IN THE MORNING
HOURS...NE TO E LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS BECOME MORNING
NORTHERLY ACRS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS.  THIS FLOW WL
FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AT LEAST THRU MIDAFTERNOON...AND THE SERN
FOOTHILLS AND SRN BORDER AREA FOR ENHANCED PCPN.  WITH LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON BEING STEEP...7.5C/KM TO AROUND 9C/KM ALONG THE MTNS
WL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. H7 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO COOL TO ABOUT -7C THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PCPN MAKES THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST CHALLENGING...BUT
OVER AND NR THE MTNS THERE COULD BE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE PCPN WL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND
MODERATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND ARE NO
LONGER PRINTING OUT ANY QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG WITH H7 WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...IS FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER
LOCATION OF SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE A DEVELOPING SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS POPS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. AT
ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WL BE MOVING THRU SERN CO THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS OR HIGHER AT KCOS AND KPUB.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPUB TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON COULD BRING CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR A TIME.
AT KCOS MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  KALS SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
IN THE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 250950
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WY INTO CO THIS
MORNING WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU SOUTHEAST
CO.  IN THE EARLY EVENING THE UPR TROF AXIS WL MOVE INTO SW KS AND
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITH DRY N TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...AND THIS
WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.  WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROF INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONT...PCPN WL SPREAD TO THE ERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. WL KEEP THE HIGH PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...FIRST OVR
THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA. IN THE MORNING
HOURS...NE TO E LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS BECOME MORNING
NORTHERLY ACRS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS.  THIS FLOW WL
FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AT LEAST THRU MIDAFTERNOON...AND THE SERN
FOOTHILLS AND SRN BORDER AREA FOR ENHANCED PCPN.  WITH LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON BEING STEEP...7.5C/KM TO AROUND 9C/KM ALONG THE MTNS
WL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. H7 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO COOL TO ABOUT -7C THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PCPN MAKES THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST CHALLENGING...BUT
OVER AND NR THE MTNS THERE COULD BE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE PCPN WL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND
MODERATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND ARE NO
LONGER PRINTING OUT ANY QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG WITH H7 WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...IS FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER
LOCATION OF SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE A DEVELOPING SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS POPS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. AT
ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WL BE MOVING THRU SERN CO THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS OR HIGHER AT KCOS AND KPUB.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPUB TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON COULD BRING CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR A TIME.
AT KCOS MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  KALS SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
IN THE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1134 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LOADED IN SOME FRESH MODEL DATA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OR BETTER
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE THE AREA BEING TARGETED BY THE EVENING
MODEL RUNS. H7 TEMPS COMING DOWN TO -5 TO -7C BEHIND
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND
5000 FEET OR SO AFTER AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX. INTRODUCED
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO ABOUT THIS LEVEL
TOMORROW. AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING
OF WET SNOW AT SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO 4
INCHES OR SO IN THE MOUNTAINS. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES LOOK
STEEP...7.5 C/KM TO 9.5 C/KM ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
SUPPOSE SOME AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES...AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES ON SHORT ORDER. LOOKING LIKE A TYPICAL MARCH
CONVECTIVE SPRING SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE. SHOULD BE INTERESTING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS NO LONGER BEING MET OVER EL PASO COUNTY
ALTHOUGH MEADOW LAKE AND SCHRIEVER ARE STILL HITTING 23 MPH.
CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. BUT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
SO RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
CO WED MORNING...REACHING KCOS BETWEEN 10-12Z AND KPUB 12-13Z.
THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY N-NE WINDS GUSTING 30 KTS OR
HIGHER. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE ERN MTS AND W OF
I-25...HOWEVER SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT OR NR KCOS IN THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A MIX OF RA...SN AND
POSSIBLY GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS. SHOWERS LESS LIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
VICINITY KPUB AND KALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW MVFR FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. SHOULD SEE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT FROM N TO S AFTER 21-22Z...WITH VFR ALL SITES BY 03Z
OR SO IN THE EVENING. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 250534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1134 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LOADED IN SOME FRESH MODEL DATA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OR BETTER
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE THE AREA BEING TARGETED BY THE EVENING
MODEL RUNS. H7 TEMPS COMING DOWN TO -5 TO -7C BEHIND
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND
5000 FEET OR SO AFTER AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX. INTRODUCED
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO ABOUT THIS LEVEL
TOMORROW. AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING
OF WET SNOW AT SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO 4
INCHES OR SO IN THE MOUNTAINS. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES LOOK
STEEP...7.5 C/KM TO 9.5 C/KM ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
SUPPOSE SOME AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES...AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES ON SHORT ORDER. LOOKING LIKE A TYPICAL MARCH
CONVECTIVE SPRING SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE. SHOULD BE INTERESTING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS NO LONGER BEING MET OVER EL PASO COUNTY
ALTHOUGH MEADOW LAKE AND SCHRIEVER ARE STILL HITTING 23 MPH.
CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. BUT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
SO RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
CO WED MORNING...REACHING KCOS BETWEEN 10-12Z AND KPUB 12-13Z.
THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY N-NE WINDS GUSTING 30 KTS OR
HIGHER. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE ERN MTS AND W OF
I-25...HOWEVER SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT OR NR KCOS IN THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A MIX OF RA...SN AND
POSSIBLY GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS. SHOWERS LESS LIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
VICINITY KPUB AND KALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW MVFR FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. SHOULD SEE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT FROM N TO S AFTER 21-22Z...WITH VFR ALL SITES BY 03Z
OR SO IN THE EVENING. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250457
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1057 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS NO LONGER BEING MET OVER EL PASO COUNTY
ALTHOUGH MEADOW LAKE AND SCHRIEVER ARE STILL HITTING 23 MPH.
CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. BUT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
SO RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
CO WED MORNING...REACHING KCOS BTWN 10-12Z AND KPUB 12-13Z. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY N-NE WINDS GUSTING 30 KTS OR HIGHER.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE ERN MTS AND W OF
I-25...HOWEVER SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT OR NR KCOS IN THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A MIX OF RA...SN AND
POSSIBLY GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS. SHOWERS LESS LIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
VC KPUB AND KALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW MVFR FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. SHOULD SEE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT FROM N TO S AFTER 21-22Z...WITH VFR ALL SITES BY 03Z
OR SO IN THE EVENING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 250457
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1057 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS NO LONGER BEING MET OVER EL PASO COUNTY
ALTHOUGH MEADOW LAKE AND SCHRIEVER ARE STILL HITTING 23 MPH.
CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. BUT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
SO RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
CO WED MORNING...REACHING KCOS BTWN 10-12Z AND KPUB 12-13Z. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY N-NE WINDS GUSTING 30 KTS OR HIGHER.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE ERN MTS AND W OF
I-25...HOWEVER SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT OR NR KCOS IN THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A MIX OF RA...SN AND
POSSIBLY GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS. SHOWERS LESS LIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
VC KPUB AND KALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW MVFR FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. SHOULD SEE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT FROM N TO S AFTER 21-22Z...WITH VFR ALL SITES BY 03Z
OR SO IN THE EVENING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250457
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1057 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS NO LONGER BEING MET OVER EL PASO COUNTY
ALTHOUGH MEADOW LAKE AND SCHRIEVER ARE STILL HITTING 23 MPH.
CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. BUT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
SO RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
CO WED MORNING...REACHING KCOS BTWN 10-12Z AND KPUB 12-13Z. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY N-NE WINDS GUSTING 30 KTS OR HIGHER.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE ERN MTS AND W OF
I-25...HOWEVER SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT OR NR KCOS IN THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A MIX OF RA...SN AND
POSSIBLY GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS. SHOWERS LESS LIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
VC KPUB AND KALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW MVFR FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. SHOULD SEE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT FROM N TO S AFTER 21-22Z...WITH VFR ALL SITES BY 03Z
OR SO IN THE EVENING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 250457
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1057 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS NO LONGER BEING MET OVER EL PASO COUNTY
ALTHOUGH MEADOW LAKE AND SCHRIEVER ARE STILL HITTING 23 MPH.
CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. BUT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
SO RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
CO WED MORNING...REACHING KCOS BTWN 10-12Z AND KPUB 12-13Z. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY N-NE WINDS GUSTING 30 KTS OR HIGHER.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE ERN MTS AND W OF
I-25...HOWEVER SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT OR NR KCOS IN THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A MIX OF RA...SN AND
POSSIBLY GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS. SHOWERS LESS LIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
VC KPUB AND KALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW MVFR FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. SHOULD SEE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT FROM N TO S AFTER 21-22Z...WITH VFR ALL SITES BY 03Z
OR SO IN THE EVENING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
710 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS NO LONGER BEING MET OVER EL PASO COUNTY
ALTHOUGH MEADOW LAKE AND SCHRIEVER ARE STILL HITTING 23 MPH.
CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. BUT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
SO RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 13-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE RAMPART RANGE...WET MTS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AFTER 18Z AND LAST THROUGH APPROX 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 250110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
710 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS NO LONGER BEING MET OVER EL PASO COUNTY
ALTHOUGH MEADOW LAKE AND SCHRIEVER ARE STILL HITTING 23 MPH.
CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. BUT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
SO RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 13-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE RAMPART RANGE...WET MTS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AFTER 18Z AND LAST THROUGH APPROX 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
710 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS NO LONGER BEING MET OVER EL PASO COUNTY
ALTHOUGH MEADOW LAKE AND SCHRIEVER ARE STILL HITTING 23 MPH.
CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. BUT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
SO RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 13-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE RAMPART RANGE...WET MTS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AFTER 18Z AND LAST THROUGH APPROX 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
710 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS NO LONGER BEING MET OVER EL PASO COUNTY
ALTHOUGH MEADOW LAKE AND SCHRIEVER ARE STILL HITTING 23 MPH.
CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. BUT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
SO RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 13-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE RAMPART RANGE...WET MTS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AFTER 18Z AND LAST THROUGH APPROX 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 250019
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
619 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 13-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE RAMPART RANGE...WET MTS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AFTER 18Z AND LAST THROUGH APPROX 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226-227.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250019
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
619 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 13-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE RAMPART RANGE...WET MTS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AFTER 18Z AND LAST THROUGH APPROX 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226-227.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 250019
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
619 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 13-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE RAMPART RANGE...WET MTS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AFTER 18Z AND LAST THROUGH APPROX 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226-227.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 242111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RFW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED TIME. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE W-NW AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN. ADJUSTED THE POP
GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK MAY SEE
1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTN DUE TO THIS QUICK MOVING
WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10-
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 13-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
RAMPART RANGE...WET MTS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AFTER 18Z AND LAST
THROUGH APPROX 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 242111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RFW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED TIME. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE W-NW AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN. ADJUSTED THE POP
GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK MAY SEE
1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTN DUE TO THIS QUICK MOVING
WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10-
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 13-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
RAMPART RANGE...WET MTS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AFTER 18Z AND LAST
THROUGH APPROX 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241715
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
INTO NRN SAGUACHE COUNTY...WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND INTO PORTIONS OF
TELLER COUNTY.  THEY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS THE AREA.  BY MIDDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ALL SHOWERS WILL END AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY HAD
PREVIOUSLY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE OVR BACA COUNTY...ERN LAS
ANIMAS AND OVR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE HRRR
IS SHOWING THE GUST POTENTIAL TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET THE
RED FLAG CRITERIA.  AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND AROUND
WALSENBURG STILL LOOKING QUITE BREEZY.  ALSO THE RH VALUES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACRS ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND
I25 CORRIDOR.  GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY END SOONER
THAN 8 PM AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT BY 6 PM.
HOWEVER WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE END TIME AT THIS POINT. THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY IS ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH ACRS THE VALLEY AND IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE MIN RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACRS THE VALLEY FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...WL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TODAY.

TONIGHT ANOTHER UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING.  THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMING INTO
THE WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND ALSO AGREE ON SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
DESPITE BEST LIFT BEING NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS AND THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW PRONE AREAS OF THE  PIKES PEAK REGION...THE
PALMER DVD...THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND THE RATON MESA.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK RATHER HIGH INITIALLY THROUGH COULD LOWER TO
BETWEEN 8000-9000 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AGAIN...MODELS KEEPING BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH BEST THREAT OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS A WEAKER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE BY A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. COULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 15-16Z
TOMORROW MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241715
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
INTO NRN SAGUACHE COUNTY...WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND INTO PORTIONS OF
TELLER COUNTY.  THEY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS THE AREA.  BY MIDDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ALL SHOWERS WILL END AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY HAD
PREVIOUSLY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE OVR BACA COUNTY...ERN LAS
ANIMAS AND OVR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE HRRR
IS SHOWING THE GUST POTENTIAL TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET THE
RED FLAG CRITERIA.  AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND AROUND
WALSENBURG STILL LOOKING QUITE BREEZY.  ALSO THE RH VALUES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACRS ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND
I25 CORRIDOR.  GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY END SOONER
THAN 8 PM AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT BY 6 PM.
HOWEVER WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE END TIME AT THIS POINT. THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY IS ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH ACRS THE VALLEY AND IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE MIN RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACRS THE VALLEY FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...WL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TODAY.

TONIGHT ANOTHER UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING.  THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMING INTO
THE WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND ALSO AGREE ON SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
DESPITE BEST LIFT BEING NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS AND THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW PRONE AREAS OF THE  PIKES PEAK REGION...THE
PALMER DVD...THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND THE RATON MESA.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK RATHER HIGH INITIALLY THROUGH COULD LOWER TO
BETWEEN 8000-9000 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AGAIN...MODELS KEEPING BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH BEST THREAT OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS A WEAKER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE BY A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. COULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 15-16Z
TOMORROW MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 241715
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
INTO NRN SAGUACHE COUNTY...WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND INTO PORTIONS OF
TELLER COUNTY.  THEY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS THE AREA.  BY MIDDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ALL SHOWERS WILL END AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY HAD
PREVIOUSLY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE OVR BACA COUNTY...ERN LAS
ANIMAS AND OVR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE HRRR
IS SHOWING THE GUST POTENTIAL TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET THE
RED FLAG CRITERIA.  AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND AROUND
WALSENBURG STILL LOOKING QUITE BREEZY.  ALSO THE RH VALUES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACRS ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND
I25 CORRIDOR.  GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY END SOONER
THAN 8 PM AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT BY 6 PM.
HOWEVER WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE END TIME AT THIS POINT. THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY IS ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH ACRS THE VALLEY AND IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE MIN RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACRS THE VALLEY FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...WL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TODAY.

TONIGHT ANOTHER UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING.  THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMING INTO
THE WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND ALSO AGREE ON SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
DESPITE BEST LIFT BEING NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS AND THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW PRONE AREAS OF THE  PIKES PEAK REGION...THE
PALMER DVD...THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND THE RATON MESA.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK RATHER HIGH INITIALLY THROUGH COULD LOWER TO
BETWEEN 8000-9000 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AGAIN...MODELS KEEPING BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH BEST THREAT OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS A WEAKER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE BY A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. COULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 15-16Z
TOMORROW MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 241715
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
INTO NRN SAGUACHE COUNTY...WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND INTO PORTIONS OF
TELLER COUNTY.  THEY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS THE AREA.  BY MIDDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ALL SHOWERS WILL END AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY HAD
PREVIOUSLY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE OVR BACA COUNTY...ERN LAS
ANIMAS AND OVR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE HRRR
IS SHOWING THE GUST POTENTIAL TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET THE
RED FLAG CRITERIA.  AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND AROUND
WALSENBURG STILL LOOKING QUITE BREEZY.  ALSO THE RH VALUES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACRS ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND
I25 CORRIDOR.  GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY END SOONER
THAN 8 PM AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT BY 6 PM.
HOWEVER WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE END TIME AT THIS POINT. THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY IS ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH ACRS THE VALLEY AND IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE MIN RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACRS THE VALLEY FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...WL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TODAY.

TONIGHT ANOTHER UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING.  THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMING INTO
THE WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND ALSO AGREE ON SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
DESPITE BEST LIFT BEING NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS AND THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW PRONE AREAS OF THE  PIKES PEAK REGION...THE
PALMER DVD...THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND THE RATON MESA.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK RATHER HIGH INITIALLY THROUGH COULD LOWER TO
BETWEEN 8000-9000 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AGAIN...MODELS KEEPING BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH BEST THREAT OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS A WEAKER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE BY A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. COULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL MT PASSES. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SFC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 15-16Z
TOMORROW MORNING...PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 15G30KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 16-17Z. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241027
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
INTO NRN SAGUACHE COUNTY...WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND INTO PORTIONS OF
TELLER COUNTY.  THEY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS THE AREA.  BY MIDDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ALL SHOWERS WILL END AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY HAD
PREVIOUSLY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE OVR BACA COUNTY...ERN LAS
ANIMAS AND OVR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE HRRR
IS SHOWING THE GUST POTENTIAL TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET THE
RED FLAG CRITERIA.  AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND AROUND
WALSENBURG STILL LOOKING QUITE BREEZY.  ALSO THE RH VALUES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACRS ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND
I25 CORRIDOR.  GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY END SOONER
THAN 8 PM AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT BY 6 PM.
HOWEVER WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE END TIME AT THIS POINT. THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY IS ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH ACRS THE VALLEY AND IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE MIN RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACRS THE VALLEY FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...WL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TODAY.

TONIGHT ANOTHER UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING.  THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMING INTO
THE WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND ALSO AGREE ON SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
DESPITE BEST LIFT BEING NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS AND THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW PRONE AREAS OF THE  PIKES PEAK REGION...THE
PALMER DVD...THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND THE RATON MESA.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK RATHER HIGH INITIALLY THROUGH COULD LOWER TO
BETWEEN 8000-9000 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AGAIN...MODELS KEEPING BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH BEST THREAT OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS A WEAKER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE BY A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. COULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.  BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241027
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
INTO NRN SAGUACHE COUNTY...WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND INTO PORTIONS OF
TELLER COUNTY.  THEY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS THE AREA.  BY MIDDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ALL SHOWERS WILL END AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY HAD
PREVIOUSLY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE OVR BACA COUNTY...ERN LAS
ANIMAS AND OVR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE HRRR
IS SHOWING THE GUST POTENTIAL TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET THE
RED FLAG CRITERIA.  AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND AROUND
WALSENBURG STILL LOOKING QUITE BREEZY.  ALSO THE RH VALUES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACRS ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND
I25 CORRIDOR.  GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY END SOONER
THAN 8 PM AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT BY 6 PM.
HOWEVER WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE END TIME AT THIS POINT. THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY IS ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH ACRS THE VALLEY AND IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE MIN RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACRS THE VALLEY FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...WL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TODAY.

TONIGHT ANOTHER UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING.  THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMING INTO
THE WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND ALSO AGREE ON SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
DESPITE BEST LIFT BEING NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS AND THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW PRONE AREAS OF THE  PIKES PEAK REGION...THE
PALMER DVD...THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND THE RATON MESA.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK RATHER HIGH INITIALLY THROUGH COULD LOWER TO
BETWEEN 8000-9000 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AGAIN...MODELS KEEPING BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH BEST THREAT OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS A WEAKER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE BY A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. COULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.  BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 241027
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
INTO NRN SAGUACHE COUNTY...WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND INTO PORTIONS OF
TELLER COUNTY.  THEY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS THE AREA.  BY MIDDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ALL SHOWERS WILL END AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY HAD
PREVIOUSLY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE OVR BACA COUNTY...ERN LAS
ANIMAS AND OVR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE HRRR
IS SHOWING THE GUST POTENTIAL TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET THE
RED FLAG CRITERIA.  AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND AROUND
WALSENBURG STILL LOOKING QUITE BREEZY.  ALSO THE RH VALUES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACRS ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND
I25 CORRIDOR.  GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY END SOONER
THAN 8 PM AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT BY 6 PM.
HOWEVER WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE END TIME AT THIS POINT. THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY IS ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH ACRS THE VALLEY AND IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE MIN RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACRS THE VALLEY FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...WL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TODAY.

TONIGHT ANOTHER UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING.  THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMING INTO
THE WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND ALSO AGREE ON SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
DESPITE BEST LIFT BEING NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS AND THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW PRONE AREAS OF THE  PIKES PEAK REGION...THE
PALMER DVD...THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND THE RATON MESA.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK RATHER HIGH INITIALLY THROUGH COULD LOWER TO
BETWEEN 8000-9000 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AGAIN...MODELS KEEPING BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH BEST THREAT OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS A WEAKER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE BY A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. COULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.  BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 240548
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 KT
RANGE TUE MORNING...THEN W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS. WINDS COULD BE SPORADIC OVER THE PLAINS. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
MODERATE TB FROM 06Z THROUGH 18Z TUE OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS AS A 100 KT JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH NRN CO. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 240548
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 KT
RANGE TUE MORNING...THEN W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS. WINDS COULD BE SPORADIC OVER THE PLAINS. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
MODERATE TB FROM 06Z THROUGH 18Z TUE OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS AS A 100 KT JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH NRN CO. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240548
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 KT
RANGE TUE MORNING...THEN W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS. WINDS COULD BE SPORADIC OVER THE PLAINS. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
MODERATE TB FROM 06Z THROUGH 18Z TUE OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS AS A 100 KT JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH NRN CO. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 240548
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 KT
RANGE TUE MORNING...THEN W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS. WINDS COULD BE SPORADIC OVER THE PLAINS. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
MODERATE TB FROM 06Z THROUGH 18Z TUE OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS AS A 100 KT JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH NRN CO. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240452
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 KT
RANGE TUE MORNING...THEN W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS. WINDS COULD BE SPORADIC OVER THE PLAINS. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
MODERATE TB FROM 06Z THROUGH 18Z TUE OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS AS A 100 KT JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH NRN CO. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240452
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 KT
RANGE TUE MORNING...THEN W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS. WINDS COULD BE SPORADIC OVER THE PLAINS. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
MODERATE TB FROM 06Z THROUGH 18Z TUE OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS AS A 100 KT JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH NRN CO. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 240452
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 KT
RANGE TUE MORNING...THEN W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS. WINDS COULD BE SPORADIC OVER THE PLAINS. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
MODERATE TB FROM 06Z THROUGH 18Z TUE OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS AS A 100 KT JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH NRN CO. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240452
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 KT
RANGE TUE MORNING...THEN W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS. WINDS COULD BE SPORADIC OVER THE PLAINS. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
MODERATE TB FROM 06Z THROUGH 18Z TUE OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS AS A 100 KT JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH NRN CO. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 240354
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
954 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE MORNING...LEADING
TO SOME GUSTS AT KPUB AND KCOS FROM 20-30 KTS AFTER 09Z TUE. AFTER
A BRIEF LULL TUE MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
W-SW TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ALSO FROM 20-30 KTS THROUGH EARLY
TUE EVE. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE TB OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 03Z THIS EVE AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUE...AS W WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE MTS.
ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240354
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
954 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOADED IN FRESH OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE MORNING...LEADING
TO SOME GUSTS AT KPUB AND KCOS FROM 20-30 KTS AFTER 09Z TUE. AFTER
A BRIEF LULL TUE MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
W-SW TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ALSO FROM 20-30 KTS THROUGH EARLY
TUE EVE. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE TB OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 03Z THIS EVE AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUE...AS W WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE MTS.
ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 240057
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
657 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE MORNING...LEADING
TO SOME GUSTS AT KPUB AND KCOS FROM 20-30 KTS AFTER 09Z TUE. AFTER
A BRIEF LULL TUE MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
W-SW TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ALSO FROM 20-30 KTS THROUGH EARLY
TUE EVE. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE TB OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 03Z THIS EVE AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUE...AS W WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE MTS.
ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-229-230-
233.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 240057
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
657 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE MORNING...LEADING
TO SOME GUSTS AT KPUB AND KCOS FROM 20-30 KTS AFTER 09Z TUE. AFTER
A BRIEF LULL TUE MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
W-SW TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ALSO FROM 20-30 KTS THROUGH EARLY
TUE EVE. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE TB OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 03Z THIS EVE AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUE...AS W WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE MTS.
ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-229-230-
233.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240057
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
657 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAISED POPS FROM SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ALREADY SNOWING OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS PER
CDOT WEB IMAGES...AND RADAR CONCURS. ALSO...IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
SURFACE OBS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM LEADVILLE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
REINITIALIZE THE FRONT END OF THE FORECAST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM. RED FLAG FOR TOMORROW
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY
PRODUCING ISOLATED MT SHOWERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE MORNING...LEADING
TO SOME GUSTS AT KPUB AND KCOS FROM 20-30 KTS AFTER 09Z TUE. AFTER
A BRIEF LULL TUE MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
W-SW TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ALSO FROM 20-30 KTS THROUGH EARLY
TUE EVE. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE TB OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 03Z THIS EVE AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUE...AS W WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE MTS.
ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-229-230-
233.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232315
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
515 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTN...WHICH WILL
HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN AFTN
THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING
ISOLATED MT SHOWERS.  BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE MORNING...LEADING
TO SOME GUSTS AT KPUB AND KCOS FROM 20-30 KTS AFTER 09Z TUE. AFTER
A BRIEF LULL TUE MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRM THE
W-SW TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ALSO FROM 20-30 KTS THROUGH EARLY
TUE EVE. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE TB OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 03Z THIS EVE AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUE...AS W WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE MTS.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-229-230-
233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232315
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
515 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTN...WHICH WILL
HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN AFTN
THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING
ISOLATED MT SHOWERS.  BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE MORNING...LEADING
TO SOME GUSTS AT KPUB AND KCOS FROM 20-30 KTS AFTER 09Z TUE. AFTER
A BRIEF LULL TUE MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRM THE
W-SW TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ALSO FROM 20-30 KTS THROUGH EARLY
TUE EVE. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE TB OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 03Z THIS EVE AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUE...AS W WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE MTS.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-229-230-
233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 232315
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
515 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTN...WHICH WILL
HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN AFTN
THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING
ISOLATED MT SHOWERS.  BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE MORNING...LEADING
TO SOME GUSTS AT KPUB AND KCOS FROM 20-30 KTS AFTER 09Z TUE. AFTER
A BRIEF LULL TUE MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRM THE
W-SW TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ALSO FROM 20-30 KTS THROUGH EARLY
TUE EVE. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE TB OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 03Z THIS EVE AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUE...AS W WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE MTS.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-229-230-
233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232315
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
515 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTN...WHICH WILL
HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN AFTN
THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING
ISOLATED MT SHOWERS.  BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE MORNING...LEADING
TO SOME GUSTS AT KPUB AND KCOS FROM 20-30 KTS AFTER 09Z TUE. AFTER
A BRIEF LULL TUE MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRM THE
W-SW TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ALSO FROM 20-30 KTS THROUGH EARLY
TUE EVE. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE TB OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 03Z THIS EVE AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUE...AS W WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE MTS.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-229-230-
233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 232115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTN...WHICH WILL
HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN AFTN
THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING
ISOLATED MT SHOWERS.  BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE AT KALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS LIKELY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AT KCOS. KPUB WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER BRIEF GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS KPUB AND KCOS AFTER
09Z/TUES WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS POSSIBLE.  AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST MAY IMPACT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-229-230-
233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTN...WHICH WILL
HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN AFTN
THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING
ISOLATED MT SHOWERS.  BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE AT KALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS LIKELY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AT KCOS. KPUB WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER BRIEF GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS KPUB AND KCOS AFTER
09Z/TUES WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS POSSIBLE.  AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST MAY IMPACT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-229-230-
233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 232115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTN...WHICH WILL
HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN AFTN
THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING
ISOLATED MT SHOWERS.  BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE AT KALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS LIKELY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AT KCOS. KPUB WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER BRIEF GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS KPUB AND KCOS AFTER
09Z/TUES WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS POSSIBLE.  AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST MAY IMPACT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-229-230-
233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTN...WHICH WILL
HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN AFTN
THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING
ISOLATED MT SHOWERS.  BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE AT KALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS LIKELY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AT KCOS. KPUB WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER BRIEF GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS KPUB AND KCOS AFTER
09Z/TUES WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS POSSIBLE.  AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST MAY IMPACT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-229-230-
233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY





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