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000
FXUS65 KPUB 251114
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
514 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH HIGHS REACHING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RECORDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT
WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.  MODELS GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ON WEST FACING PEAKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
40S TO 50S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...WEAK FALL SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK FALL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM STILL LOOKS QUICK MOVING AND
MAINLY TO IMPACT THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 50 AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION.

THERE IS A NEW AREA THAT IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN AT LEAST THE PAST 2 NAM12 MODEL RUNS. THE PRECIP SWATH RUNS IN
A BAND FROM THE LA GARITAS...EASTWARD ACROSS FREMONT...SOUTHERN
TELLER AND NORTHERN CUSTER COUNTIES...OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
PUEBLO...SOUTHERN EL PASO...CROWLEY AND KIOWA COUNTIES.

THE BAND SEEMS TO BE GENERATED BY THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. THE BAND...AS DEPICTED IN THE MODELS...IS ORIENTED
WITH THE JET AND FLARES UP AS THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHOW A BRIEF RESPONSE TO
THE DISTURBANCE...TURNING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. THIS IS A FAVORABLE WIND FOR PRECIP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SO...WILL BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE UNDER THIS BAND
BRIEFLY TO SCATTERED MONDAY EVENING AS THIS QUICK MOVING FEATURE
MOVES ACROSS. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE GREAT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP BY ANY
MEANS BUT A FEW HUNDRETHS TO MAYBE A 0.10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS.

SNOW LEVELS COME DOWN PRETTY GOOD BY MONDAY EVENING. BELIEVE THIS
IS A RESPONSE TO THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WITH THE MODEL
GENERATING PRECIP...IT IS ALSO COOLING THE AIR MASS IN RESPONSE TO
DIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIP GENERATION. THE NAM12
TAKES H7 TEMPS DOWN TO -2C TO -3C IN THE AREA IMPACTED BY THE
BAND. AT THESE TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER DOWN TO ABOUT 6000
FEET UNDER THE BAND MONDAY EVENING. COULD EVEN BE SOME WET SNOW
FLAKES MIXING IN BELOW THAT. CONSIDERING THE TEMPERATURES AND THE
LIGHT PRECIP INTENSITIES...NO BIG ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...BUT
COULD BE SOME LOCAL LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET ON
GRASSY AREAS. ALSO...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AROUND PIKES PEAK COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO MAYBE 4 INCHES FOR
THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...ENDING TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAYBE
A SPOTTY...BRIEF SHOWER HERE AND THERE...BUT GENERALLY DRY.

TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY MID
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MILDER BUT WITH
STILL A MARGINAL FROST/FREEZE THREAT. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
BLOW OUT SPRINKLERS AND DISCONNECT GARDEN HOSES PRIOR TO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...PLANTS WOULD NEED TO BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INDOORS
TO EXTEND THEIR GROWING SEASON.

AFTER THE BRIEF FALL CHILL WRAPS UP WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER COLORADO TO BRING A RETURN TO DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 250528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES...

SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...PUB HAS HIT 84 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF 83 IN 2011...COS AND ALS HAVE BOTH TIED THEIR RECORDS OF
78 AND 70 RESPECTIVELY...ALSO SET IN 2011. BUT WITH AN HOUR MORE OF
HEATING TO GO THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THESE LOCATIONS TO BUMP UP
ANOTHER DEGREE. TIME WILL TELL.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE UPPER HIGH TO THE
SOUTH.  H7 TEMPERATURES TOMORROW LOOK LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE OF
TODAY. IN FACT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALOFT AND THIS COULD AID MIXING A BIT.  THUS ANOTHER
DAY OF RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED.  RECORD HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE A LITTLE WARMER (PUB...87 IN 1959. COS...79 IN 1959.
ALS...75 IN 1959)...BUT SEEMS THAT PUB AND COS COULD COME CLOSE OR
BREAK RECORDS TOMORROW.  OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.  WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD GET
BREEZY IN SPOTS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW...BUT
WINDS DON`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...DRY AND WARM WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NOVEMBER...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY UNEVENTFUL. THE WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS MID 80S...SINCE TEMPS ALOFT DO NOT LOOK
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE WARMER MOS VALUES...EVEN WITH
MODERATE WRLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME MARGINALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON
AS RH VALUES NR 15 PERCENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO THE CENTRAL MTS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MON AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES
ERN CO. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WOULD BRING MORE QPF...ESPECIALLY TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE NCEP
MODELS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SYSTEM...SO WILL LEAVE BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE
POPS...AROUND 10 PERCENT...FOR THE LOWLANDS. BUT THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP
FOR THIS AREA. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO BRING US CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN WE
COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. THE
MTS COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS...GENERALLY AN INCH OR
TWO... FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET.

WE HEAD INTO A PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT AFTER THE TROUGH QUICKLY
DEPARTS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA WED NIGHT BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY...AND THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO KEEP COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL AVGS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD STRONGLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND WE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STUCK IN A DRY AND WARM PATTERN...AND IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN ANY TIME SOON. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO THE NEXT 24 HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT DIURNAL
WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 242108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES...

SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...PUB HAS HIT 84 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF 83 IN 2011...COS AND ALS HAVE BOTH TIED THEIR RECORDS OF
78 AND 70 RESPECTIVELY...ALSO SET IN 2011. BUT WITH AN HOUR MORE OF
HEATING TO GO THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THESE LOCATIONS TO BUMP UP
ANOTHER DEGREE. TIME WILL TELL.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE UPPER HIGH TO THE
SOUTH.  H7 TEMPERATURES TOMORROW LOOK LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE OF
TODAY. IN FACT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALOFT AND THIS COULD AID MIXING A BIT.  THUS ANOTHER
DAY OF RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED.  RECORD HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE A LITTLE WARMER (PUB...87 IN 1959. COS...79 IN 1959.
ALS...75 IN 1959)...BUT SEEMS THAT PUB AND COS COULD COME CLOSE OR
BREAK RECORDS TOMORROW.  OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.  WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD GET
BREEZY IN SPOTS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW...BUT
WINDS DON`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...DRY AND WARM WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NOVEMBER...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY UNEVENTFUL. THE WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS MID 80S...SINCE TEMPS ALOFT DO NOT LOOK
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE WARMER MOS VALUES...EVEN WITH
MODERATE WRLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME MARGINALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON
AS RH VALUES NR 15 PERCENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO THE CENTRAL MTS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MON AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES
ERN CO. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WOULD BRING MORE QPF...ESPECIALLY TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE NCEP
MODELS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SYSTEM...SO WILL LEAVE BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE
POPS...AROUND 10 PERCENT...FOR THE LOWLANDS. BUT THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP
FOR THIS AREA. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO BRING US CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN WE
COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. THE
MTS COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS...GENERALLY AN INCH OR
TWO... FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET.

WE HEAD INTO A PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT AFTER THE TROUGH QUICKLY
DEPARTS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA WED NIGHT BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY...AND THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO KEEP COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL AVGS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD STRONGLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND WE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STUCK IN A DRY AND WARM PATTERN...AND IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN ANY TIME SOON. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 15 KTS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 241652
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS LED TO WAVE CLOUD ACTIVITY OVER TELLER
AND EL PASO COUNTIES...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
REMAINS CLEAR.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF COOLING
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH AT
ALAMOSA OF 70 WOULD TIE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE...WHILE FORECAST
HIGHS AT PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WOULD BREAK THE CURRENT RECORDS BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.  DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ON SUNDAY...DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS IT DOES SO...DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK BREEZES PICK UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER DAY THAN WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE.
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. GRASSES HAVE CURED SO
FUELS ARE CRITICAL. COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS DAY AND LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ENERGY TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO RUN ABOUT 8500 FEET.
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD RUN ANYWHERE
FROM ABOUT 2 INCHES AROUND WOLF CREEK PASS...UP TO MAYBE 6 OR 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK. THERE COULD BE
A SPOTTY...BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES ACROSS...WITH THE BEST ODDS RIGHT ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT...ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED...IF AT ALL.

AFTER THE DISTURBANCE GOES BY...THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS WILL
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SEEING FROST OR EVENING A KILLING FREEZE
TUESDAY MORNING.  EARLY GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE INDICATING ANYWHERE
FROM MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
BLOW OUT SPRINKLER SYSTEMS...DISCONNECT HOSES AND DECIDE WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE PROTECTING PLANTS PRIOR TO MONDAY NIGHT.

OTHER THAN THE SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MORE MILD AND DRY FALL WEATHER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS UNDER 15 KTS AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 241052
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
452 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS LED TO WAVE CLOUD ACTIVITY OVER TELLER
AND EL PASO COUNTIES...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
REMAINS CLEAR.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF COOLING
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH AT
ALAMOSA OF 70 WOULD TIE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE...WHILE FORECAST
HIGHS AT PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WOULD BREAK THE CURRENT RECORDS BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.  DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ON SUNDAY...DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS IT DOES SO...DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK BREEZES PICK UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER DAY THAN WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE.
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. GRASSES HAVE CURED SO
FUELS ARE CRITICAL. COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS DAY AND LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ENERGY TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO RUN ABOUT 8500 FEET.
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD RUN ANYWHERE
FROM ABOUT 2 INCHES AROUND WOLF CREEK PASS...UP TO MAYBE 6 OR 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK. THERE COULD BE
A SPOTTY...BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES ACROSS...WITH THE BEST ODDS RIGHT ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT...ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED...IF AT ALL.

AFTER THE DISTURBANCE GOES BY...THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS WILL
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SEEING FROST OR EVENING A KILLING FREEZE
TUESDAY MORNING.  EARLY GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE INDICATING ANYWHERE
FROM MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
BLOW OUT SPRINKLER SYSTEMS...DISCONNECT HOSES AND DECIDE WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE PROTECTING PLANTS PRIOR TO MONDAY NIGHT.

OTHER THAN THE SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MORE MILD AND DRY FALL WEATHER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE STATE. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 241052
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
452 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS LED TO WAVE CLOUD ACTIVITY OVER TELLER
AND EL PASO COUNTIES...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
REMAINS CLEAR.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF COOLING
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH AT
ALAMOSA OF 70 WOULD TIE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE...WHILE FORECAST
HIGHS AT PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WOULD BREAK THE CURRENT RECORDS BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.  DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ON SUNDAY...DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS IT DOES SO...DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK BREEZES PICK UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER DAY THAN WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE.
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. GRASSES HAVE CURED SO
FUELS ARE CRITICAL. COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS DAY AND LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ENERGY TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO RUN ABOUT 8500 FEET.
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD RUN ANYWHERE
FROM ABOUT 2 INCHES AROUND WOLF CREEK PASS...UP TO MAYBE 6 OR 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK. THERE COULD BE
A SPOTTY...BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES ACROSS...WITH THE BEST ODDS RIGHT ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT...ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED...IF AT ALL.

AFTER THE DISTURBANCE GOES BY...THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS WILL
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SEEING FROST OR EVENING A KILLING FREEZE
TUESDAY MORNING.  EARLY GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE INDICATING ANYWHERE
FROM MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
BLOW OUT SPRINKLER SYSTEMS...DISCONNECT HOSES AND DECIDE WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE PROTECTING PLANTS PRIOR TO MONDAY NIGHT.

OTHER THAN THE SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MORE MILD AND DRY FALL WEATHER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE STATE. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 240502
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1102 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR TOMORROW...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND
EAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SOME HIGH LEVEL
WAVE CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IN THE OFFING...AS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WARM AIR ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10C
AND 14C CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT OR ABOVE RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S AT THE PEAKS.
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 24TH ARE 78F AT COS...83F AT PUB AND 70F
AT ALS...ALL SET IN 2011 AND LOOKS LIKE WILL TIE OR BREAK
THEM...EVEN WITH AN EXPECTED GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WIND REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY BUT STILL
WARM MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR
MONDAY...

UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR
THE DAY WHICH INCLUDE (PUB...87 IN 1959. COS...79 IN 1959.
ALS...75 IN 1959.) THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTS ACROSS CO AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN U.S. ROCKIES.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY...AND QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LEE TROF
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT SOME OVER
THOSE ON SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
AVERAGE AND RH VALUES MAY COME CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT
THRESHOLD.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION ON MONDAY. SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND MOST OF THE ENERGY PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.

MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT...AND WINDS DECOUPLE. KNOCKED OFF A FEW DEGREES
OFF LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FROST
OR FREEZE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 240502
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1102 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR TOMORROW...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND
EAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SOME HIGH LEVEL
WAVE CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IN THE OFFING...AS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WARM AIR ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10C
AND 14C CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT OR ABOVE RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S AT THE PEAKS.
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 24TH ARE 78F AT COS...83F AT PUB AND 70F
AT ALS...ALL SET IN 2011 AND LOOKS LIKE WILL TIE OR BREAK
THEM...EVEN WITH AN EXPECTED GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WIND REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY BUT STILL
WARM MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR
MONDAY...

UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR
THE DAY WHICH INCLUDE (PUB...87 IN 1959. COS...79 IN 1959.
ALS...75 IN 1959.) THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTS ACROSS CO AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN U.S. ROCKIES.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY...AND QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LEE TROF
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT SOME OVER
THOSE ON SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
AVERAGE AND RH VALUES MAY COME CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT
THRESHOLD.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION ON MONDAY. SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND MOST OF THE ENERGY PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.

MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT...AND WINDS DECOUPLE. KNOCKED OFF A FEW DEGREES
OFF LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FROST
OR FREEZE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 232130
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR TOMORROW...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND
EAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SOME HIGH LEVEL
WAVE CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IN THE OFFING...AS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WARM AIR ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10C
AND 14C CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT OR ABOVE RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S AT THE PEAKS.
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 24TH ARE 78F AT COS...83F AT PUB AND 70F
AT ALS...ALL SET IN 2011 AND LOOKS LIKE WILL TIE OR BREAK
THEM...EVEN WITH AN EXPECTED GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WIND REGIME.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY BUT STILL
WARM MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR
MONDAY...

UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR
THE DAY WHICH INCLUDE (PUB...87 IN 1959. COS...79 IN 1959.
ALS...75 IN 1959.) THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTS ACROSS CO AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN U.S. ROCKIES.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY...AND QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LEE TROF
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT SOME OVER
THOSE ON SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
AVERAGE AND RH VALUES MAY COME CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT
THRESHOLD.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION ON MONDAY. SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND MOST OF THE ENERGY PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.

MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT...AND WINDS DECOUPLE. KNOCKED OFF A FEW DEGREES
OFF LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FROST
OR FREEZE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
WIND REGIME EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231727
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OBS
INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
THROUGH SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
MOVE EAST OVER COLORADO.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

...HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MORE SEASONABLE (AND POSSIBLY
WETTER) NEXT WEEK...

UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES MOVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE L/M80S THESE THREE
DAYS...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A BIT COOLER WX SUNDAY. A FEW RECORD
HIGH TEMPS MAY BE BROKEN DURING THIS 3 DAY PERIOD. THESE VALUES
WILL GENERALLY RUN AOA 15F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AS FOR FIRE WX...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AT OR AROUND CRITICAL
VALUES ON THESE 3 DAYS BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FRI AND
SAT...BUT MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN ALONG
THE RATON MESA.

FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BOTH GFS AND EC HAVE A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THE GFS IS A MUCH QUICKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER. FOR NOW I
LEANED THE NDFD A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE EC GUIDANCE AND HAVE MORE
CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. IF THE EC SHOULD VERIFY...ALL AREAS COULD SEE PRECIP WITH
THE SOUTHERN MTNS MAKING OUT PRETTY WELL. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS
SHOULD VERIFY...THEN ONLY THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP.

TEMPS TUE AND WED MORNING MAY BE AROUND FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS.

AS FOR THE FCST INTO MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE COULD NOT
BE MORE DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSITE. THE EC HAS A LARGE TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE THE PAC WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS HAS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMTN WEST. BOTH PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN...BUT THE SPEED OF THE TROUGHS/RIDGES TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE CONUS VARY...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE
DISCREPANCIES. FOR NOW I HAVE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATER TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WIND REGIME EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 230858
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
258 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OBS
INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
THROUGH SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
MOVE EAST OVER COLORADO.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

...HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MORE SEASONABLE (AND POSSIBLY
WETTER) NEXT WEEK...

UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES MOVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE L/M80S THESE THREE
DAYS...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A BIT COOLER WX SUNDAY. A FEW RECORD
HIGH TEMPS MAY BE BROKEN DURING THIS 3 DAY PERIOD. THESE VALUES
WILL GENERALLY RUN AOA 15F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AS FOR FIRE WX...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AT OR AROUND CRITICAL
VALUES ON THESE 3 DAYS BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FRI AND
SAT...BUT MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN ALONG
THE RATON MESA.

FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BOTH GFS AND EC HAVE A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THE GFS IS A MUCH QUICKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER. FOR NOW I
LEANED THE NDFD A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE EC GUIDANCE AND HAVE MORE
CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. IF THE EC SHOULD VERIFY...ALL AREAS COULD SEE PRECIP WITH
THE SOUTHERN MTNS MAKING OUT PRETTY WELL. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS
SHOULD VERIFY...THEN ONLY THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP.

TEMPS TUE AND WED MORNING MAY BE AROUND FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS.

AS FOR THE FCST INTO MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE COULD NOT
BE MORE DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSITE. THE EC HAS A LARGE TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE THE PAC WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS HAS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMTN WEST. BOTH PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN...BUT THE SPEED OF THE TROUGHS/RIDGES TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE CONUS VARY...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE
DISCREPANCIES. FOR NOW I HAVE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATER TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT KCOS AND KPUB THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1O KTS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 230858 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
258 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OBS
INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
THROUGH SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
MOVE EAST OVER COLORADO.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

...HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MORE SEASONABLE (AND POSSIBLY
WETTER) NEXT WEEK...

UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES MOVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE L/M80S THESE THREE
DAYS...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A BIT COOLER WX SUNDAY. A FEW RECORD
HIGH TEMPS MAY BE BROKEN DURING THIS 3 DAY PERIOD. THESE VALUES
WILL GENERALLY RUN AOA 15F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AS FOR FIRE WX...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AT OR AROUND CRITICAL
VALUES ON THESE 3 DAYS BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FRI AND
SAT...BUT MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN ALONG
THE RATON MESA.

FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BOTH GFS AND EC HAVE A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THE GFS IS A MUCH QUICKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER. FOR NOW I
LEANED THE NDFD A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE EC GUIDANCE AND HAVE MORE
CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. IF THE EC SHOULD VERIFY...ALL AREAS COULD SEE PRECIP WITH
THE SOUTHERN MTNS MAKING OUT PRETTY WELL. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS
SHOULD VERIFY...THEN ONLY THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP.

TEMPS TUE AND WED MORNING MAY BE AROUND FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS.

AS FOR THE FCST INTO MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE COULD NOT
BE MORE DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSITE. THE EC HAS A LARGE TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE THE PAC WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS HAS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMTN WEST. BOTH PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN...BUT THE SPEED OF THE TROUGHS/RIDGES TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE CONUS VARY...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE
DISCREPANCIES. FOR NOW I HAVE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATER TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT KCOS AND KPUB THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1O KTS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 230523
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
EAST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING GENERALLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTS AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...GREAT BASIN WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH DECREASING AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH BEST UVV LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER AND IN NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...GENERALLY AOA 10K FT. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS
THE REGION...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WARM AIR ALOFT (7C TO 11C WARMEST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS)
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...AND WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT
THERMALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WIND REGIME...SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER AND
CONTINUED AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 60S AND 70S...MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND 30S AND 40S AT THE PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ALOFT. GRIDS HAVE TEMPERATURES TYING OR
EXCEEDING RECORD HIGHS AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB. MAIN CONCERN FOR
REACHING RECORD HIGHS IS THE AMOUNT OF MIXING WITH LIGHT WINDS.
RECORD HIGHS ON THE 24TH ARE LOW COMPARED TO SURROUNDING
DAYS...AND BELIEVE RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE DESPITE LIGHT WINDS. ON
SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE WINDS ALOFT TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS CAN INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MIXING FOR A
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE
HIGH PLAINS MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. IF COOLER AIR STAYS FURTHER EAST...THEN
SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
FRIDAY.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NEXT TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
THE 12Z EC AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A DEEPER TROUGH WHICH
COULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH. THE 12Z EC SEEMS TO BE THE
THE STRONGEST WITH A CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH DEEP
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. EC HAS BEEN
OCCASIONALLY SHOWING THIS STRONGER TROUGH AND IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY
DISCOUNTED. IF THE EC SOLUTION DID OCCUR...THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
COULD GET A BURST OF SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES. IN THE
GRIDS...INCREASED POPS MODESTLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF DEEP UPSLOPE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WHICH WOULD BE SOME SNOW TO THIS REGION.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IS TO KEEP ANY TROUGH MOSTLY TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION. EXTENDED PROCEDURE GAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS TO
MOSTLY THE HIGHER PEAKS...WHICH IS A REASONABLE FORECAST. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO THE NEXT 24 HRS AND
BEYOND...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
WINDS AT TERMINALS WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE THROUGH
THU NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 222135
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
335 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

URRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST. REGIONAL
RADARS INDICATING GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A FEW CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTS AT
THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...GREAT BASIN WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH DECREASING AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH BEST UVV LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER AND IN NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...GENERALLY AOA 10K FT. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS
THE REGION...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WARM AIR ALOFT (7C TO 11C WARMEST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS)
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...AND WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT
THERMALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WIND REGIME...SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER AND
CONTINUED AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 60S AND 70S...MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND 30S AND 40S AT THE PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ALOFT. GRIDS HAVE TEMPERATURES TYING OR
EXCEEDING RECORD HIGHS AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB. MAIN CONCERN FOR
REACHING RECORD HIGHS IS THE AMOUNT OF MIXING WITH LIGHT WINDS.
RECORD HIGHS ON THE 24TH ARE LOW COMPARED TO SURROUNDING
DAYS...AND BELIEVE RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE DESPITE LIGHT WINDS. ON
SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE WINDS ALOFT TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS CAN INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MIXING FOR A
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE
HIGH PLAINS MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. IF COOLER AIR STAYS FURTHER EAST...THEN
SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
FRIDAY.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NEXT TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
THE 12Z EC AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A DEEPER TROUGH WHICH
COULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH. THE 12Z EC SEEMS TO BE THE
THE STRONGEST WITH A CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH DEEP
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. EC HAS BEEN
OCCASIONALLY SHOWING THIS STRONGER TROUGH AND IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY
DISCOUNTED. IF THE EC SOLUTION DID OCCUR...THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
COULD GET A BURST OF SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES. IN THE
GRIDS...INCREASED POPS MODESTLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF DEEP UPSLOPE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WHICH WOULD BE SOME SNOW TO THIS REGION.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IS TO KEEP ANY TROUGH MOSTLY TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION. EXTENDED PROCEDURE GAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS TO
MOSTLY THE HIGHER PEAKS...WHICH IS A REASONABLE FORECAST. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM...OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST. SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH CLEARINGS SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221730
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1130 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED TO BACK OFF POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
POPS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS GREAT BASIN WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENTLY...

A 500 MB TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TWO BROKEN LINES OF PRECIP WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER NE
CO WHICH WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO WY...AND A 2ND LINE OF
PRECIP...INCLUDING THUNDER..WAS OVER THE CENTRAL WEST SLOPE AND WAS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. OVER OUR FCST AREA...RADAR WAS NOT INDICATING
MUCH ALTHOUGH THE WEBCAMS AT SEVERAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOWED WET
CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND EXTENDED
FROM ROUGHLY KLIC TO KPUB.

TODAY...

OVERALL...I EXPECT IT TO BE ABOUT 4 TO 8F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN TH L/M70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 60S UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY...60S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S
MOST MTN AREAS. THE SHOWERS OVER THE C PART OF THE STATE WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE C MTNS/PIKES PEAK REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFT
OUT LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/-
TSRA TO MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL I EXPECT THE PLAINS TO BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. WE MAY SEE SOME -TSRA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I DID NOTICE THAT THE
EURO GUIDANCE WAS A BIT HIGHER ON POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT IGNORED
THIS DATA FOR NOW GIVEN PAUCITY OF PRECIP BEING PREDICTED BY THE
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
REACH DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST OF PLAINS WITH SOME 30S IN N EL PASO
COUNTY. VALLEYS AND MTNS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 20S RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...AND WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A STORM MOVING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK WOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WOULD BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR THE
PLAINS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OVER COLORADO FOR
MONDAY. THE FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ABOVE 9 KFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK TO DEPART
MONDAY...WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM...OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST. SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH CLEARINGS SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221730
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1130 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED TO BACK OFF POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
POPS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS GREAT BASIN WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENTLY...

A 500 MB TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TWO BROKEN LINES OF PRECIP WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER NE
CO WHICH WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO WY...AND A 2ND LINE OF
PRECIP...INCLUDING THUNDER..WAS OVER THE CENTRAL WEST SLOPE AND WAS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. OVER OUR FCST AREA...RADAR WAS NOT INDICATING
MUCH ALTHOUGH THE WEBCAMS AT SEVERAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOWED WET
CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND EXTENDED
FROM ROUGHLY KLIC TO KPUB.

TODAY...

OVERALL...I EXPECT IT TO BE ABOUT 4 TO 8F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN TH L/M70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 60S UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY...60S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S
MOST MTN AREAS. THE SHOWERS OVER THE C PART OF THE STATE WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE C MTNS/PIKES PEAK REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFT
OUT LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/-
TSRA TO MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL I EXPECT THE PLAINS TO BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. WE MAY SEE SOME -TSRA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I DID NOTICE THAT THE
EURO GUIDANCE WAS A BIT HIGHER ON POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT IGNORED
THIS DATA FOR NOW GIVEN PAUCITY OF PRECIP BEING PREDICTED BY THE
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
REACH DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST OF PLAINS WITH SOME 30S IN N EL PASO
COUNTY. VALLEYS AND MTNS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 20S RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...AND WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A STORM MOVING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK WOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WOULD BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR THE
PLAINS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OVER COLORADO FOR
MONDAY. THE FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ABOVE 9 KFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK TO DEPART
MONDAY...WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM...OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST. SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH CLEARINGS SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221601
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1001 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED TO BACK OFF POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
POPS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS GREAT BASIN WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENTLY...

A 500 MB TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TWO BROKEN LINES OF PRECIP WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER NE
CO WHICH WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO WY...AND A 2ND LINE OF
PRECIP...INCLUDING THUNDER..WAS OVER THE CENTRAL WEST SLOPE AND WAS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. OVER OUR FCST AREA...RADAR WAS NOT INDICATING
MUCH ALTHOUGH THE WEBCAMS AT SEVERAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOWED WET
CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND EXTENDED
FROM ROUGHLY KLIC TO KPUB.

TODAY...

OVERALL...I EXPECT IT TO BE ABOUT 4 TO 8F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN TH L/M70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 60S UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY...60S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S
MOST MTN AREAS. THE SHOWERS OVER THE C PART OF THE STATE WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE C MTNS/PIKES PEAK REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFT
OUT LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/-
TSRA TO MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL I EXPECT THE PLAINS TO BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. WE MAY SEE SOME -TSRA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I DID NOTICE THAT THE
EURO GUIDANCE WAS A BIT HIGHER ON POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT IGNORED
THIS DATA FOR NOW GIVEN PAUCITY OF PRECIP BEING PREDICTED BY THE
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
REACH DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST OF PLAINS WITH SOME 30S IN N EL PASO
COUNTY. VALLEYS AND MTNS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 20S RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...AND WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A STORM MOVING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK WOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WOULD BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR THE
PLAINS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OVER COLORADO FOR
MONDAY. THE FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ABOVE 9 KFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK TO DEPART
MONDAY...WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24. AN ISOLD SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOADY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES...BUT BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ACROSS KCOS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT N-NW WINDS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO
LIGHT UPSLOPE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT KCOS AND KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221601
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1001 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED TO BACK OFF POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
POPS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS GREAT BASIN WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENTLY...

A 500 MB TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TWO BROKEN LINES OF PRECIP WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER NE
CO WHICH WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO WY...AND A 2ND LINE OF
PRECIP...INCLUDING THUNDER..WAS OVER THE CENTRAL WEST SLOPE AND WAS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. OVER OUR FCST AREA...RADAR WAS NOT INDICATING
MUCH ALTHOUGH THE WEBCAMS AT SEVERAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOWED WET
CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND EXTENDED
FROM ROUGHLY KLIC TO KPUB.

TODAY...

OVERALL...I EXPECT IT TO BE ABOUT 4 TO 8F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN TH L/M70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 60S UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY...60S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S
MOST MTN AREAS. THE SHOWERS OVER THE C PART OF THE STATE WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE C MTNS/PIKES PEAK REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFT
OUT LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/-
TSRA TO MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL I EXPECT THE PLAINS TO BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. WE MAY SEE SOME -TSRA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I DID NOTICE THAT THE
EURO GUIDANCE WAS A BIT HIGHER ON POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT IGNORED
THIS DATA FOR NOW GIVEN PAUCITY OF PRECIP BEING PREDICTED BY THE
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
REACH DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST OF PLAINS WITH SOME 30S IN N EL PASO
COUNTY. VALLEYS AND MTNS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 20S RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...AND WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A STORM MOVING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK WOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WOULD BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR THE
PLAINS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OVER COLORADO FOR
MONDAY. THE FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ABOVE 9 KFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK TO DEPART
MONDAY...WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24. AN ISOLD SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOADY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES...BUT BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ACROSS KCOS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT N-NW WINDS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO
LIGHT UPSLOPE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT KCOS AND KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





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