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000
FXUS65 KPUB 192204
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
304 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER COLORADO TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FLOW
FLATTENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. NONE OF THESE WAVES APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH OR MOIST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP OVER COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD MOST LOCATIONS...AND
AS HIGH MOUNTAINS VALLEYS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE NEAR ALAMOSA. ON SATURDAY...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP MIXING LIMITED...WITH HIGH  TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING JUST A FEW DEGF FROM FRIDAY`S READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WORKS
TO AMPLIFY THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN INCH OR TWO
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF
THE WEST COAST WHILE THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE
SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH THE
FRONT...THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
FIELDS. IT FAVORS THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT WARM ON MONDAY...SO MOST AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE TURNING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION
WITH A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
AND DEVELOPS A DECENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AND POPS
ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE IN THE PLAINS FORECAST GROWS.

A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THIS SECONDARY DISTURBANCE. LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SNOWFALL TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS...THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE 1 TO 2
FEET ARE POSSIBLE...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE LA
GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES...AROUND 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE
THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z GFS HAS DECIDED TO CHANGE. GIVEN THE
CONSISTENT ECMWF...FOLLOWED ITS GUIDANCE FOR NOW WHICH ALSO HAS
SUPPORT FROM MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES.

EXPECT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH ON THURSDAY...SNOW WILL LIKELY PICK UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS MUCH LESS
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.
A LOTS DEPENDS ON STORM TRACK AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE CURRENT
ECMWF SOLUTION HITS THE TYPICAL NORTH WIND AREAS OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. IF THE
TRACK TRENDS SOUTH...IT WOULD MEAN A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY FOR SNOW FOR THE PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WITH A GLANCING BLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TIME
WILL TELL HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK...AND WHERE/HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPUB AND KCOS THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
LIGHT WINDS. AT KALS...STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VIS 12Z-16Z THEN CLEARING 16Z-18Z. OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS NORTH OF MONARCH PASS OBSCURED AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 192204
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
304 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER COLORADO TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FLOW
FLATTENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. NONE OF THESE WAVES APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH OR MOIST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP OVER COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD MOST LOCATIONS...AND
AS HIGH MOUNTAINS VALLEYS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE NEAR ALAMOSA. ON SATURDAY...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP MIXING LIMITED...WITH HIGH  TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING JUST A FEW DEGF FROM FRIDAY`S READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WORKS
TO AMPLIFY THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN INCH OR TWO
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF
THE WEST COAST WHILE THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE
SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH THE
FRONT...THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
FIELDS. IT FAVORS THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT WARM ON MONDAY...SO MOST AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE TURNING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION
WITH A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
AND DEVELOPS A DECENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AND POPS
ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE IN THE PLAINS FORECAST GROWS.

A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THIS SECONDARY DISTURBANCE. LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SNOWFALL TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS...THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE 1 TO 2
FEET ARE POSSIBLE...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE LA
GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES...AROUND 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE
THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z GFS HAS DECIDED TO CHANGE. GIVEN THE
CONSISTENT ECMWF...FOLLOWED ITS GUIDANCE FOR NOW WHICH ALSO HAS
SUPPORT FROM MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES.

EXPECT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH ON THURSDAY...SNOW WILL LIKELY PICK UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS MUCH LESS
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.
A LOTS DEPENDS ON STORM TRACK AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE CURRENT
ECMWF SOLUTION HITS THE TYPICAL NORTH WIND AREAS OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. IF THE
TRACK TRENDS SOUTH...IT WOULD MEAN A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY FOR SNOW FOR THE PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WITH A GLANCING BLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TIME
WILL TELL HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK...AND WHERE/HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPUB AND KCOS THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
LIGHT WINDS. AT KALS...STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VIS 12Z-16Z THEN CLEARING 16Z-18Z. OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS NORTH OF MONARCH PASS OBSCURED AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 191733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1033 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

THIS MORNING LOW STRATUS IS BEING REPORTED AND CAN BE SEEN IN SOME
AREAS ON SATELLITE ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
WL MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
IN THESE AREAS.

AN UPR SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING...LEAVING NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA.  SOME MSTR IN THIS NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE CENTRAL MTNS TODAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
MORNING.  THE REST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY.  MET GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR MAXIMUMS HAS MET AND MAV LATELY HAVE BEEN
TOO WARM. SOME CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WINDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
WARMING ON THE PLAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER AND WETTER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
COLORADO. MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
COTTONWOOD PASS. INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT ON THE WR SAT TABLE
EXCEEDS 2 STANDARD ANOMALIES...INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO OVER 50 KNOTS AT 500 MB WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER THE PASSES AND HIGHER
MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS APPROACHING WARNING
CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS STILL THE FIFTH TO
SIXTH PERIODS...AND TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A WATCH. SUSPECT THAT
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ON MONDAY...TRAILING DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND
EC TRY TO TURN THE 700MB NORTHEAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE GAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS TO MUCH OF
THESE LOCATIONS...WHICH IS OK FOR THIS FAR OUT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS...STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE ARE TIMING...STRENGTH
AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. LATEST EC
AND GFS SUGGEST A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY. LATEST SIMULATIONS HAVE SNOW WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHWARD. MUCH TOO EARLY
TO GET SPECIFIC ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LATEST SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WITH
GUSTY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY OR FRIDAY OVER OR NEAR OUR CWA.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED AT KPUB AND KCOS THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AT KALS...STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS 12Z-16Z THEN CLEARING 16Z-18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 191733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1033 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

THIS MORNING LOW STRATUS IS BEING REPORTED AND CAN BE SEEN IN SOME
AREAS ON SATELLITE ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
WL MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
IN THESE AREAS.

AN UPR SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING...LEAVING NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA.  SOME MSTR IN THIS NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE CENTRAL MTNS TODAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
MORNING.  THE REST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY.  MET GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR MAXIMUMS HAS MET AND MAV LATELY HAVE BEEN
TOO WARM. SOME CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WINDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
WARMING ON THE PLAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER AND WETTER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
COLORADO. MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
COTTONWOOD PASS. INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT ON THE WR SAT TABLE
EXCEEDS 2 STANDARD ANOMALIES...INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO OVER 50 KNOTS AT 500 MB WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER THE PASSES AND HIGHER
MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS APPROACHING WARNING
CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS STILL THE FIFTH TO
SIXTH PERIODS...AND TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A WATCH. SUSPECT THAT
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ON MONDAY...TRAILING DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND
EC TRY TO TURN THE 700MB NORTHEAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE GAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS TO MUCH OF
THESE LOCATIONS...WHICH IS OK FOR THIS FAR OUT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS...STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE ARE TIMING...STRENGTH
AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. LATEST EC
AND GFS SUGGEST A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY. LATEST SIMULATIONS HAVE SNOW WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHWARD. MUCH TOO EARLY
TO GET SPECIFIC ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LATEST SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WITH
GUSTY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY OR FRIDAY OVER OR NEAR OUR CWA.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED AT KPUB AND KCOS THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AT KALS...STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS 12Z-16Z THEN CLEARING 16Z-18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 191149
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
449 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

THIS MORNING LOW STRATUS IS BEING REPORTED AND CAN BE SEEN IN SOME
AREAS ON SATELLITE ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
WL MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
IN THESE AREAS.

AN UPR SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING...LEAVING NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA.  SOME MSTR IN THIS NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE CENTRAL MTNS TODAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
MORNING.  THE REST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY.  MET GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR MAXIMUMS HAS MET AND MAV LATELY HAVE BEEN
TOO WARM. SOME CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WINDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
WARMING ON THE PLAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER AND WETTER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
COLORADO. MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
COTTONWOOD PASS. INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT ON THE WR SAT TABLE
EXCEEDS 2 STANDARD ANOMALIES...INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO OVER 50 KNOTS AT 500 MB WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER THE PASSES AND HIGHER
MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS APPROACHING WARNING
CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS STILL THE FIFTH TO
SIXTH PERIODS...AND TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A WATCH. SUSPECT THAT
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ON MONDAY...TRAILING DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND
EC TRY TO TURN THE 700MB NORTHEAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE GAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS TO MUCH OF
THESE LOCATIONS...WHICH IS OK FOR THIS FAR OUT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS...STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE ARE TIMING...STRENGTH
AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. LATEST EC
AND GFS SUGGEST A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY. LATEST SIMULATIONS HAVE SNOW WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHWARD. MUCH TOO EARLY
TO GET SPECIFIC ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LATEST SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WITH
GUSTY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY OR FRIDAY OVER OR NEAR OUR CWA.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AT
KALS...WITH CONDITIONS THEN BECOMING VFR BY LATE MORNING.  THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING LOW AT THIS POINT...WL NOT INCLUDE IN TERMINAL
FORECAST YET.

STRATUS WILL BE AT OR IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB EARLY THIS
MORNING. AROUND MIDMORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 190652
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

STRETCHED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR EXPANSE OF SHOWERS ON RADAR. ALSO...REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  WEBCAMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.  THE
PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TONIGHT.  THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.  HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS MOVING THE SNOW EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE A FEELING COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LOW SNOWFALL RATES AND SHORT DURATION...BUT
SPOTTY HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  MODEL OUTPUT AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK ROADS BY MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS
RATHER DRY AND MAIN UPPER JET DIVING WELL SOUTH OF
COLORADO...SUSPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM COTTONWOOD PASS
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES MANY
AREAS...THOUGH LACK OF SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED MIXING WILL TEND
TO KEEP WARM-UP RATHER MODEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS STRONG UPPER JET AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CREST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SNOW STARTING SUN NIGHT FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD AS NW
MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND WARMER SUN AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MON INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE
MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MON/MON
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS JET AND MOISTURE MOVE EAST.
MAY NEED SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUN
THROUGH MON...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE TODAY.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL STAY BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILD
ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER DAY MON...THOUGH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF HEAVY QPF (0.50 INCHES OR
GREATER) OVER THE PLAINS MON EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z ECMWF/18Z
GFS...AS UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL WORK
TO COUNTERACT DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER JET...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE...WITH
HIGHEST POPS MON EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS ANY
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS MON WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN WITH A
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MON EVENING. JET SHIFTS EAST TUE TAKING
MOST PRECIP WITH IT...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NOTE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP GOING ON THE PLAINS MUCH OF THE DAY TUE...WHICH LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

AREA WILL STAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WED...WITH NEXT TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH TOWARD COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON ITS SOLUTION OF A DEEP GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT APPEARS IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/POST CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.

KCOS...THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER YET THIS EVENING WHICH
MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AND CIGS.
FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER YET THIS EVENING. MODELS AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IN AND AROUND
THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 190652
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

STRETCHED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR EXPANSE OF SHOWERS ON RADAR. ALSO...REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  WEBCAMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.  THE
PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TONIGHT.  THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.  HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS MOVING THE SNOW EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE A FEELING COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LOW SNOWFALL RATES AND SHORT DURATION...BUT
SPOTTY HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  MODEL OUTPUT AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK ROADS BY MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS
RATHER DRY AND MAIN UPPER JET DIVING WELL SOUTH OF
COLORADO...SUSPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM COTTONWOOD PASS
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES MANY
AREAS...THOUGH LACK OF SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED MIXING WILL TEND
TO KEEP WARM-UP RATHER MODEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS STRONG UPPER JET AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CREST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SNOW STARTING SUN NIGHT FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD AS NW
MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND WARMER SUN AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MON INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE
MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MON/MON
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS JET AND MOISTURE MOVE EAST.
MAY NEED SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUN
THROUGH MON...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE TODAY.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL STAY BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILD
ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER DAY MON...THOUGH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF HEAVY QPF (0.50 INCHES OR
GREATER) OVER THE PLAINS MON EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z ECMWF/18Z
GFS...AS UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL WORK
TO COUNTERACT DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER JET...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE...WITH
HIGHEST POPS MON EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS ANY
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS MON WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN WITH A
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MON EVENING. JET SHIFTS EAST TUE TAKING
MOST PRECIP WITH IT...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NOTE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP GOING ON THE PLAINS MUCH OF THE DAY TUE...WHICH LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

AREA WILL STAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WED...WITH NEXT TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH TOWARD COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON ITS SOLUTION OF A DEEP GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT APPEARS IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/POST CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.

KCOS...THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER YET THIS EVENING WHICH
MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AND CIGS.
FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER YET THIS EVENING. MODELS AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IN AND AROUND
THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 190519
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1019 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

STRETCHED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR EXPANSE OF SHOWERS ON RADAR. ALSO...REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  WEBCAMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.  THE
PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TONIGHT.  THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.  HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS MOVING THE SNOW EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE A FEELING COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LOW SNOWFALL RATES AND SHORT DURATION...BUT
SPOTTY HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  MODEL OUTPUT AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK ROADS BY MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS
RATHER DRY AND MAIN UPPER JET DIVING WELL SOUTH OF
COLORADO...SUSPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM COTTONWOOD PASS
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES MANY
AREAS...THOUGH LACK OF SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED MIXING WILL TEND
TO KEEP WARM-UP RATHER MODEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS STRONG UPPER JET AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CREST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SNOW STARTING SUN NIGHT FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD AS NW
MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND WARMER SUN AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MON INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE
MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MON/MON
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS JET AND MOISTURE MOVE EAST.
MAY NEED SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUN
THROUGH MON...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE TODAY.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL STAY BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILD
ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER DAY MON...THOUGH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF HEAVY QPF (0.50 INCHES OR
GREATER) OVER THE PLAINS MON EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z ECMWF/18Z
GFS...AS UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL WORK
TO COUNTERACT DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER JET...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE...WITH
HIGHEST POPS MON EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS ANY
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS MON WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN WITH A
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MON EVENING. JET SHIFTS EAST TUE TAKING
MOST PRECIP WITH IT...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NOTE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP GOING ON THE PLAINS MUCH OF THE DAY TUE...WHICH LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

AREA WILL STAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WED...WITH NEXT TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH TOWARD COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON ITS SOLUTION OF A DEEP GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT APPEARS IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/POST CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.

KCOS...THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER YET THIS EVENING WHICH
MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AND CIGS.
FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER YET THIS EVENING. MODELS AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IN AND AROUND
THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 190519
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1019 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

STRETCHED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR EXPANSE OF SHOWERS ON RADAR. ALSO...REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  WEBCAMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.  THE
PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TONIGHT.  THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.  HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS MOVING THE SNOW EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE A FEELING COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LOW SNOWFALL RATES AND SHORT DURATION...BUT
SPOTTY HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  MODEL OUTPUT AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK ROADS BY MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS
RATHER DRY AND MAIN UPPER JET DIVING WELL SOUTH OF
COLORADO...SUSPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM COTTONWOOD PASS
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES MANY
AREAS...THOUGH LACK OF SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED MIXING WILL TEND
TO KEEP WARM-UP RATHER MODEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS STRONG UPPER JET AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CREST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SNOW STARTING SUN NIGHT FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD AS NW
MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND WARMER SUN AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MON INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE
MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MON/MON
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS JET AND MOISTURE MOVE EAST.
MAY NEED SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUN
THROUGH MON...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE TODAY.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL STAY BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILD
ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER DAY MON...THOUGH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF HEAVY QPF (0.50 INCHES OR
GREATER) OVER THE PLAINS MON EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z ECMWF/18Z
GFS...AS UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL WORK
TO COUNTERACT DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER JET...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE...WITH
HIGHEST POPS MON EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS ANY
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS MON WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN WITH A
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MON EVENING. JET SHIFTS EAST TUE TAKING
MOST PRECIP WITH IT...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NOTE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP GOING ON THE PLAINS MUCH OF THE DAY TUE...WHICH LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

AREA WILL STAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WED...WITH NEXT TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH TOWARD COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON ITS SOLUTION OF A DEEP GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT APPEARS IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/POST CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.

KCOS...THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER YET THIS EVENING WHICH
MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AND CIGS.
FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER YET THIS EVENING. MODELS AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IN AND AROUND
THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 190442
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
942 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

STRETCHED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR EXPANSE OF SHOWERS ON RADAR. ALSO...REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  WEBCAMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.  THE
PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TONIGHT.  THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.  HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS MOVING THE SNOW EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE A FEELING COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LOW SNOWFALL RATES AND SHORT DURATION...BUT
SPOTTY HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  MODEL OUTPUT AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK ROADS BY MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS
RATHER DRY AND MAIN UPPER JET DIVING WELL SOUTH OF
COLORADO...SUSPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM COTTONWOOD PASS
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES MANY
AREAS...THOUGH LACK OF SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED MIXING WILL TEND
TO KEEP WARM-UP RATHER MODEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS STRONG UPPER JET AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CREST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SNOW STARTING SUN NIGHT FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD AS NW
MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND WARMER SUN AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MON INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE
MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MON/MON
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS JET AND MOISTURE MOVE EAST.
MAY NEED SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUN
THROUGH MON...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE TODAY.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL STAY BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILD
ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER DAY MON...THOUGH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF HEAVY QPF (0.50 INCHES OR
GREATER) OVER THE PLAINS MON EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z ECMWF/18Z
GFS...AS UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL WORK
TO COUNTERACT DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER JET...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE...WITH
HIGHEST POPS MON EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS ANY
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS MON WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN WITH A
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MON EVENING. JET SHIFTS EAST TUE TAKING
MOST PRECIP WITH IT...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NOTE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP GOING ON THE PLAINS MUCH OF THE DAY TUE...WHICH LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

AREA WILL STAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WED...WITH NEXT TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH TOWARD COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON ITS SOLUTION OF A DEEP GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT APPEARS IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/POST CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 THOUSAND FEET AGL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.

KCOS...SCATTERED 2 THOUSAND FEET AGL DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING OVER
EL PASO COUNTY WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VIS AND CIGS. FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IN
AND AROUND THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 190442
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
942 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

STRETCHED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR EXPANSE OF SHOWERS ON RADAR. ALSO...REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  WEBCAMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.  THE
PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TONIGHT.  THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.  HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS MOVING THE SNOW EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE A FEELING COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LOW SNOWFALL RATES AND SHORT DURATION...BUT
SPOTTY HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  MODEL OUTPUT AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK ROADS BY MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS
RATHER DRY AND MAIN UPPER JET DIVING WELL SOUTH OF
COLORADO...SUSPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM COTTONWOOD PASS
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES MANY
AREAS...THOUGH LACK OF SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED MIXING WILL TEND
TO KEEP WARM-UP RATHER MODEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS STRONG UPPER JET AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CREST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SNOW STARTING SUN NIGHT FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD AS NW
MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND WARMER SUN AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MON INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE
MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MON/MON
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS JET AND MOISTURE MOVE EAST.
MAY NEED SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUN
THROUGH MON...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE TODAY.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL STAY BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILD
ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER DAY MON...THOUGH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF HEAVY QPF (0.50 INCHES OR
GREATER) OVER THE PLAINS MON EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z ECMWF/18Z
GFS...AS UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL WORK
TO COUNTERACT DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER JET...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE...WITH
HIGHEST POPS MON EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS ANY
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS MON WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN WITH A
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MON EVENING. JET SHIFTS EAST TUE TAKING
MOST PRECIP WITH IT...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NOTE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP GOING ON THE PLAINS MUCH OF THE DAY TUE...WHICH LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

AREA WILL STAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WED...WITH NEXT TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH TOWARD COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON ITS SOLUTION OF A DEEP GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT APPEARS IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/POST CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 THOUSAND FEET AGL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.

KCOS...SCATTERED 2 THOUSAND FEET AGL DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING OVER
EL PASO COUNTY WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VIS AND CIGS. FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IN
AND AROUND THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 190039
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
539 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  WEBCAMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.  THE
PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TONIGHT.  THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.  HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS MOVING THE SNOW EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE A FEELING COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LOW SNOWFALL RATES AND SHORT DURATION...BUT
SPOTTY HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  MODEL OUTPUT AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK ROADS BY MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS
RATHER DRY AND MAIN UPPER JET DIVING WELL SOUTH OF
COLORADO...SUSPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM COTTONWOOD PASS
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES MANY
AREAS...THOUGH LACK OF SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED MIXING WILL TEND
TO KEEP WARM-UP RATHER MODEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS STRONG UPPER JET AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CREST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SNOW STARTING SUN NIGHT FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD AS NW
MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND WARMER SUN AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MON INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE
MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MON/MON
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS JET AND MOISTURE MOVE EAST.
MAY NEED SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUN
THROUGH MON...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE TODAY.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL STAY BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILD
ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER DAY MON...THOUGH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF HEAVY QPF (0.50 INCHES OR
GREATER) OVER THE PLAINS MON EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z ECMWF/18Z
GFS...AS UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL WORK
TO COUNTERACT DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER JET...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE...WITH
HIGHEST POPS MON EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS ANY
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS MON WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN WITH A
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MON EVENING. JET SHIFTS EAST TUE TAKING
MOST PRECIP WITH IT...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NOTE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP GOING ON THE PLAINS MUCH OF THE DAY TUE...WHICH LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

AREA WILL STAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WED...WITH NEXT TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH TOWARD COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON ITS SOLUTION OF A DEEP GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT APPEARS IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/POST CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 THOUSAND FEET AGL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.

KCOS...SCATTERED 2 THOUSAND FEET AGL DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING OVER
EL PASO COUNTY WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VIS AND CIGS. FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IN
AND AROUND THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 190039
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
539 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  WEBCAMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.  THE
PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TONIGHT.  THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.  HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS MOVING THE SNOW EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE A FEELING COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LOW SNOWFALL RATES AND SHORT DURATION...BUT
SPOTTY HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  MODEL OUTPUT AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK ROADS BY MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS
RATHER DRY AND MAIN UPPER JET DIVING WELL SOUTH OF
COLORADO...SUSPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM COTTONWOOD PASS
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES MANY
AREAS...THOUGH LACK OF SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED MIXING WILL TEND
TO KEEP WARM-UP RATHER MODEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS STRONG UPPER JET AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CREST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SNOW STARTING SUN NIGHT FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD AS NW
MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND WARMER SUN AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MON INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE
MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MON/MON
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS JET AND MOISTURE MOVE EAST.
MAY NEED SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUN
THROUGH MON...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE TODAY.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL STAY BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILD
ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER DAY MON...THOUGH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF HEAVY QPF (0.50 INCHES OR
GREATER) OVER THE PLAINS MON EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z ECMWF/18Z
GFS...AS UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL WORK
TO COUNTERACT DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER JET...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE...WITH
HIGHEST POPS MON EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS ANY
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS MON WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN WITH A
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MON EVENING. JET SHIFTS EAST TUE TAKING
MOST PRECIP WITH IT...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NOTE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP GOING ON THE PLAINS MUCH OF THE DAY TUE...WHICH LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

AREA WILL STAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WED...WITH NEXT TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH TOWARD COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON ITS SOLUTION OF A DEEP GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT APPEARS IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/POST CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 THOUSAND FEET AGL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.

KCOS...SCATTERED 2 THOUSAND FEET AGL DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING OVER
EL PASO COUNTY WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VIS AND CIGS. FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IN
AND AROUND THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 182236
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
336 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  WEBCAMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.  THE
PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TONIGHT.  THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.  HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS MOVING THE SNOW EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE A FEELING COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LOW SNOWFALL RATES AND SHORT DURATION...BUT
SPOTTY HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  MODEL OUTPUT AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK ROADS BY MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS
RATHER DRY AND MAIN UPPER JET DIVING WELL SOUTH OF
COLORADO...SUSPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM COTTONWOOD PASS
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGF MANY
AREAS...THOUGH LACK OF SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED MIXING WILL TEND
TO KEEP WARM-UP RATHER MODEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS STRONG UPPER JET AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CREST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SNOW STARTING SUN NIGHT FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD AS NW
MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND WARMER SUN AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MON INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE
MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MON/MON
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS JET AND MOISTURE MOVE EAST.
MAY NEED SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUN
THROUGH MON...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE TODAY.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL STAY BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILD
ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER DAY MON...THOUGH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF HEAVY QPF (0.50 INCHES OR
GREATER) OVER THE PLAINS MON EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z ECMWF/18Z
GFS...AS UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL WORK
TO COUNTERACT DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER JET...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE...WITH
HIGHEST POPS MON EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS ANY
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS MON WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN WITH A
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MON EVENING. JET SHIFTS EAST TUE TAKING
MOST PRECIP WITH IT...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NOTE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP GOING ON THE PLAINS MUCH OF THE DAY TUE...WHICH LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGF MOST AREAS AS COLDER
AIR PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

AREA WILL STAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WED...WITH NEXT TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH TOWARD COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON ITS SOLUTION OF A DEEP GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT APPEARS IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/POST CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 KFT THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MODELS AND
SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCED CIGS
AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY THE
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...SCATTERED 2 KFT DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING OVER EL PASO COUNTY
WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIGS.
FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.  IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IN
AND AROUND THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 182236
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
336 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  WEBCAMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.  THE
PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TONIGHT.  THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.  HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS MOVING THE SNOW EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE A FEELING COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LOW SNOWFALL RATES AND SHORT DURATION...BUT
SPOTTY HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  MODEL OUTPUT AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK ROADS BY MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS
RATHER DRY AND MAIN UPPER JET DIVING WELL SOUTH OF
COLORADO...SUSPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM COTTONWOOD PASS
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGF MANY
AREAS...THOUGH LACK OF SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED MIXING WILL TEND
TO KEEP WARM-UP RATHER MODEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS STRONG UPPER JET AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CREST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SNOW STARTING SUN NIGHT FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD AS NW
MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND WARMER SUN AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MON INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE
MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MON/MON
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS JET AND MOISTURE MOVE EAST.
MAY NEED SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUN
THROUGH MON...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE TODAY.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL STAY BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILD
ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER DAY MON...THOUGH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF HEAVY QPF (0.50 INCHES OR
GREATER) OVER THE PLAINS MON EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z ECMWF/18Z
GFS...AS UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL WORK
TO COUNTERACT DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER JET...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE...WITH
HIGHEST POPS MON EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS ANY
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS MON WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN WITH A
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MON EVENING. JET SHIFTS EAST TUE TAKING
MOST PRECIP WITH IT...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NOTE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP GOING ON THE PLAINS MUCH OF THE DAY TUE...WHICH LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGF MOST AREAS AS COLDER
AIR PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

AREA WILL STAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WED...WITH NEXT TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH TOWARD COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON ITS SOLUTION OF A DEEP GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT APPEARS IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/POST CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 KFT THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MODELS AND
SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCED CIGS
AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY THE
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...SCATTERED 2 KFT DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING OVER EL PASO COUNTY
WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIGS.
FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.  IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IN
AND AROUND THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 181714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1014 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY AND OUT NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REMAIN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ONCE THE STRATUS LIFTS...AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

KCOS...STRATUS IS CURRENTLY LIFTING AT KCOS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH 19Z WITH SCATTERED 2 KFT DECKS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING OVER EL
PASO COUNTY WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VIS AND CIGS. FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 181350
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY AND OUT NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REMAIN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 181350
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY AND OUT NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REMAIN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 181350
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY AND OUT NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REMAIN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 181350
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY AND OUT NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REMAIN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 180624
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS INTO ALIGNMENT WITH OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN AFT SUNSET ON THURSDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 180624
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS INTO ALIGNMENT WITH OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN AFT SUNSET ON THURSDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 180525
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1025 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN AFT SUNSET ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 180525
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1025 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN AFT SUNSET ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 180133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
633 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 180133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
633 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 172151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
251 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 172151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
251 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 172151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
251 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 172151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
251 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 171850
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT
MOST OF THE PLAINS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FORECAST WAS INDICATING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO WARM AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION...THE EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF OF THE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
TODAY...AND ANOTHER GLANCING BY SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING...WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.  SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES
BY MID MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD.  OVERALL FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.  BUT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY...WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.  H7
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
...BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK...UNDER 10 KTS.  THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT IN
THE MODELS TO FOCUS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND
UPSLOPE...AND NAM12 ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4-5 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GRIDS HAVE THIS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11KFT.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...H7 WINDS
REMAIN MORE WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE)...SO EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE CREST OF THE SANGRES ABOVE 11KFT MAY FAIR A LITTLE BETTER
WITH AROUND 2-6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE SPOTTIER ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS TROUGH...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS EXTENDING EASTWARD ONTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE CR
EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. SUSPECT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR
SOME PERIODS WHEN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGHS ARE
BETTER KNOWN. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AS PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
ANY SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS AND KPUB...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
BOTH LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KPUB. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT BOTH LOCATIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 171850
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT
MOST OF THE PLAINS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FORECAST WAS INDICATING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO WARM AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION...THE EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF OF THE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
TODAY...AND ANOTHER GLANCING BY SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING...WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.  SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES
BY MID MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD.  OVERALL FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.  BUT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY...WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.  H7
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
...BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK...UNDER 10 KTS.  THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT IN
THE MODELS TO FOCUS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND
UPSLOPE...AND NAM12 ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4-5 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GRIDS HAVE THIS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11KFT.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...H7 WINDS
REMAIN MORE WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE)...SO EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE CREST OF THE SANGRES ABOVE 11KFT MAY FAIR A LITTLE BETTER
WITH AROUND 2-6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE SPOTTIER ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS TROUGH...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS EXTENDING EASTWARD ONTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE CR
EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. SUSPECT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR
SOME PERIODS WHEN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGHS ARE
BETTER KNOWN. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AS PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
ANY SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS AND KPUB...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
BOTH LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KPUB. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT BOTH LOCATIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 171732
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1032 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF OF THE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
TODAY...AND ANOTHER GLANCING BY SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING...WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.  SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES
BY MID MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD.  OVERALL FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.  BUT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY...WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.  H7
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
...BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK...UNDER 10 KTS.  THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT IN
THE MODELS TO FOCUS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND
UPSLOPE...AND NAM12 ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4-5 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GRIDS HAVE THIS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11KFT.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...H7 WINDS
REMAIN MORE WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE)...SO EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE CREST OF THE SANGRES ABOVE 11KFT MAY FAIR A LITTLE BETTER
WITH AROUND 2-6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE SPOTTIER ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS TROUGH...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS EXTENDING EASTWARD ONTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE CR
EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. SUSPECT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR
SOME PERIODS WHEN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGHS ARE
BETTER KNOWN. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AS PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
ANY SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS AND KPUB...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
BOTH LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KPUB. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT BOTH LOCATIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 171732
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1032 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF OF THE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
TODAY...AND ANOTHER GLANCING BY SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING...WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.  SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES
BY MID MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD.  OVERALL FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.  BUT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY...WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.  H7
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
...BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK...UNDER 10 KTS.  THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT IN
THE MODELS TO FOCUS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND
UPSLOPE...AND NAM12 ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4-5 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GRIDS HAVE THIS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11KFT.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...H7 WINDS
REMAIN MORE WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE)...SO EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE CREST OF THE SANGRES ABOVE 11KFT MAY FAIR A LITTLE BETTER
WITH AROUND 2-6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE SPOTTIER ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS TROUGH...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS EXTENDING EASTWARD ONTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE CR
EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. SUSPECT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR
SOME PERIODS WHEN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGHS ARE
BETTER KNOWN. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AS PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
ANY SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS AND KPUB...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
BOTH LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KPUB. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT BOTH LOCATIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 171135
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
435 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF OF THE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
TODAY...AND ANOTHER GLANCING BY SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING...WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.  SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES
BY MID MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD.  OVERALL FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.  BUT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY...WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.  H7
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
...BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK...UNDER 10 KTS.  THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT IN
THE MODELS TO FOCUS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND
UPSLOPE...AND NAM12 ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4-5 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GRIDS HAVE THIS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11KFT.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...H7 WINDS
REMAIN MORE WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE)...SO EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE CREST OF THE SANGRES ABOVE 11KFT MAY FAIR A LITTLE BETTER
WITH AROUND 2-6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE SPOTTIER ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
-KT


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS TROUGH...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS EXTENDING EASTWARD ONTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE CR
EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. SUSPECT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR
SOME PERIODS WHEN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGHS ARE
BETTER KNOWN. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AS PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.  MEANWHILE...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING...THEN INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 171135
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
435 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF OF THE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
TODAY...AND ANOTHER GLANCING BY SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING...WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.  SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES
BY MID MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD.  OVERALL FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.  BUT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY...WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.  H7
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
...BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK...UNDER 10 KTS.  THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT IN
THE MODELS TO FOCUS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND
UPSLOPE...AND NAM12 ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4-5 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GRIDS HAVE THIS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11KFT.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...H7 WINDS
REMAIN MORE WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE)...SO EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE CREST OF THE SANGRES ABOVE 11KFT MAY FAIR A LITTLE BETTER
WITH AROUND 2-6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE SPOTTIER ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
-KT


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS TROUGH...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS EXTENDING EASTWARD ONTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE CR
EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. SUSPECT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR
SOME PERIODS WHEN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGHS ARE
BETTER KNOWN. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AS PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.  MEANWHILE...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING...THEN INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170646
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCOS...KALS AND KPUB THROUGH ABOUT
NOONTIME TOMORROW. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND BRING PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS TO THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE
ALL SITES GOING AT LEAST MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND THIS FCST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BY LATER SHIFTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 170400
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON WED...A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
KALS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 21Z-00Z. AT
KCOS...ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z...BUT WON`T LIKELY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING AC/CI CIGS.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY 12Z...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT MOST
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/SNOW BY 18Z-19Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING PAST 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170400
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON WED...A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
KALS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 21Z-00Z. AT
KCOS...ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z...BUT WON`T LIKELY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING AC/CI CIGS.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY 12Z...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT MOST
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/SNOW BY 18Z-19Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING PAST 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 170400
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON WED...A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
KALS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 21Z-00Z. AT
KCOS...ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z...BUT WON`T LIKELY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING AC/CI CIGS.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY 12Z...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT MOST
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/SNOW BY 18Z-19Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING PAST 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170400
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON WED...A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
KALS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 21Z-00Z. AT
KCOS...ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z...BUT WON`T LIKELY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING AC/CI CIGS.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY 12Z...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT MOST
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/SNOW BY 18Z-19Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING PAST 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN





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