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000
FXUS65 KPUB 250514
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED EARLY EVENING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH
RES MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250514
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED EARLY EVENING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH
RES MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 250514
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED EARLY EVENING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH
RES MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250514
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED EARLY EVENING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH
RES MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 242347
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED EARLY EVENING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH
RES MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF
SITES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON MON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES MONDAY...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 242347
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED EARLY EVENING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH
RES MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF
SITES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON MON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES MONDAY...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 242347
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED EARLY EVENING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH
RES MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF
SITES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON MON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES MONDAY...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 242215
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
415 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF
SITES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON MON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES MONDAY...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 242215
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
415 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF
SITES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON MON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES MONDAY...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 242047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF
SITES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON MON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES MONDAY...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 242047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF
SITES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON MON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES MONDAY...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 242047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF
SITES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON MON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES MONDAY...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 241727
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING INCLUDING FOG REFERENCES.
MADE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR TODAY AND UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER
GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.  PLUS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE.  SO...THERE WILL BE A TRIGGER...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS LESS SHEAR.  0-6 KILOMETER BULK VALUES OVER MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY ARE GENERALLY ONLY ABOUT 15-30 KNOTS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 25-35 KNOTS AT 00Z...AND ANYWHERE FROM 40-50 KNOTS
FROM 00Z TO 03Z. SO...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY.  SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THESE AREAS WOULD INCLUDE
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT ELSEWHERE TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR VALUES.  HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND FUNNELS...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.

A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ALL OF IT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...MAKING ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...SOME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
CONTINUE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET.  OUR OBSERVER IN
LEADVILLE AT 10000 FEET CALLED IN WITH 3.3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TO MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING.  ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NE QUAD OF THE STATE
EARLY MON MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TUE AND WED WILL EQUAL WARMER TEMPS...WITH READINGS PUSHING 80F
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THE AREA WILL BE SLIPPING
INTO A MORE DIURNAL MT CONVECTION PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS...AND
ISOLATED AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS. ON THU ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT
TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE UP INTO THE
STATE...AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THU AFTN
AND EVE. TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO
EJECT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH OF COLORADO.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU
NIGHT OR VERY EARLY FRI MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE
DIRECTION...AND LLVL SUPPORT WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE E
PLAINS AND MTS GREATLY FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOOK FOR ABOUT A 10
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PROBABLE SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY ON FRI FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SAT. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. OVERNIGHT THE CHANCE FOR PCPN WL END AND
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER THERE WL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME LOW CIGS AT KALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241727
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING INCLUDING FOG REFERENCES.
MADE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR TODAY AND UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER
GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.  PLUS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE.  SO...THERE WILL BE A TRIGGER...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS LESS SHEAR.  0-6 KILOMETER BULK VALUES OVER MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY ARE GENERALLY ONLY ABOUT 15-30 KNOTS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 25-35 KNOTS AT 00Z...AND ANYWHERE FROM 40-50 KNOTS
FROM 00Z TO 03Z. SO...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY.  SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THESE AREAS WOULD INCLUDE
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT ELSEWHERE TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR VALUES.  HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND FUNNELS...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.

A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ALL OF IT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...MAKING ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...SOME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
CONTINUE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET.  OUR OBSERVER IN
LEADVILLE AT 10000 FEET CALLED IN WITH 3.3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TO MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING.  ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NE QUAD OF THE STATE
EARLY MON MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TUE AND WED WILL EQUAL WARMER TEMPS...WITH READINGS PUSHING 80F
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THE AREA WILL BE SLIPPING
INTO A MORE DIURNAL MT CONVECTION PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS...AND
ISOLATED AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS. ON THU ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT
TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE UP INTO THE
STATE...AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THU AFTN
AND EVE. TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO
EJECT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH OF COLORADO.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU
NIGHT OR VERY EARLY FRI MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE
DIRECTION...AND LLVL SUPPORT WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE E
PLAINS AND MTS GREATLY FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOOK FOR ABOUT A 10
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PROBABLE SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY ON FRI FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SAT. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. OVERNIGHT THE CHANCE FOR PCPN WL END AND
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER THERE WL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME LOW CIGS AT KALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 241545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
945 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING INCLUDING FOG REFERENCES.
MADE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR TODAY AND UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER
GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.  PLUS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE.  SO...THERE WILL BE A TRIGGER...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS LESS SHEAR.  0-6 KILOMETER BULK VALUES OVER MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY ARE GENERALLY ONLY ABOUT 15-30 KNOTS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 25-35 KNOTS AT 00Z...AND ANYWHERE FROM 40-50 KNOTS
FROM 00Z TO 03Z. SO...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY.  SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THESE AREAS WOULD INCLUDE
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT ELSEWHERE TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR VALUES.  HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND FUNNELS...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.

A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ALL OF IT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...MAKING ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...SOME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
CONTINUE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET.  OUR OBSERVER IN
LEADVILLE AT 10000 FEET CALLED IN WITH 3.3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TO MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING.  ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NE QUAD OF THE STATE
EARLY MON MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TUE AND WED WILL EQUAL WARMER TEMPS...WITH READINGS PUSHING 80F
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THE AREA WILL BE SLIPPING
INTO A MORE DIURNAL MT CONVECTION PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS...AND
ISOLATED AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS. ON THU ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT
TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE UP INTO THE
STATE...AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THU AFTN
AND EVE. TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO
EJECT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH OF COLORADO.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU
NIGHT OR VERY EARLY FRI MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE
DIRECTION...AND LLVL SUPPORT WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE E
PLAINS AND MTS GREATLY FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOOK FOR ABOUT A 10
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PROBABLE SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY ON FRI FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SAT. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...FUNNELS...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS MAY ALSO YIELD ISOLATED TORNADOES.  PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
PRIMARILY AS SNOW OR GRAUPEL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 FEET.
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS EAST
OF I-25 THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.  THIS IS LARGELY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 14-16Z...AT WHICH TIME
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LARGELY VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  HOWEVER...
ONCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS GOING AGAIN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR 15-18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...18-21Z OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND 21Z-00Z FARTHER EAST. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...AND THEN BECOME ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES WILL ALL SEE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY.  FOR NOW...HAVE VCTS STARTING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS
GENERALLY 19-20Z.  HOWEVER...UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS SPECIFIC STORM CELLS DEVELOP AND APPROACH.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
945 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING INCLUDING FOG REFERENCES.
MADE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR TODAY AND UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER
GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.  PLUS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE.  SO...THERE WILL BE A TRIGGER...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS LESS SHEAR.  0-6 KILOMETER BULK VALUES OVER MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY ARE GENERALLY ONLY ABOUT 15-30 KNOTS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 25-35 KNOTS AT 00Z...AND ANYWHERE FROM 40-50 KNOTS
FROM 00Z TO 03Z. SO...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY.  SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THESE AREAS WOULD INCLUDE
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT ELSEWHERE TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR VALUES.  HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND FUNNELS...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.

A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ALL OF IT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...MAKING ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...SOME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
CONTINUE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET.  OUR OBSERVER IN
LEADVILLE AT 10000 FEET CALLED IN WITH 3.3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TO MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING.  ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NE QUAD OF THE STATE
EARLY MON MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TUE AND WED WILL EQUAL WARMER TEMPS...WITH READINGS PUSHING 80F
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THE AREA WILL BE SLIPPING
INTO A MORE DIURNAL MT CONVECTION PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS...AND
ISOLATED AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS. ON THU ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT
TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE UP INTO THE
STATE...AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THU AFTN
AND EVE. TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO
EJECT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH OF COLORADO.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU
NIGHT OR VERY EARLY FRI MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE
DIRECTION...AND LLVL SUPPORT WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE E
PLAINS AND MTS GREATLY FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOOK FOR ABOUT A 10
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PROBABLE SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY ON FRI FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SAT. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...FUNNELS...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS MAY ALSO YIELD ISOLATED TORNADOES.  PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
PRIMARILY AS SNOW OR GRAUPEL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 FEET.
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS EAST
OF I-25 THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.  THIS IS LARGELY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 14-16Z...AT WHICH TIME
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LARGELY VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  HOWEVER...
ONCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS GOING AGAIN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR 15-18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...18-21Z OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND 21Z-00Z FARTHER EAST. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...AND THEN BECOME ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES WILL ALL SEE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY.  FOR NOW...HAVE VCTS STARTING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS
GENERALLY 19-20Z.  HOWEVER...UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS SPECIFIC STORM CELLS DEVELOP AND APPROACH.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 241337
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
737 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.  PLUS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE.  SO...THERE WILL BE A TRIGGER...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS LESS SHEAR.  0-6 KILOMETER BULK VALUES OVER MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY ARE GENERALLY ONLY ABOUT 15-30 KNOTS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 25-35 KNOTS AT 00Z...AND ANYWHERE FROM 40-50 KNOTS
FROM 00Z TO 03Z. SO...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY.  SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THESE AREAS WOULD INCLUDE
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT ELSEWHERE TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR VALUES.  HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND FUNNELS...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.

A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ALL OF IT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...MAKING ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...SOME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
CONTINUE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET.  OUR OBSERVER IN
LEADVILLE AT 10000 FEET CALLED IN WITH 3.3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TO MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING.  ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NE QUAD OF THE STATE
EARLY MON MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TUE AND WED WILL EQUAL WARMER TEMPS...WITH READINGS PUSHING 80F
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THE AREA WILL BE SLIPPING
INTO A MORE DIURNAL MT CONVECTION PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS...AND
ISOLATED AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS. ON THU ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT
TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE UP INTO THE
STATE...AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THU AFTN
AND EVE. TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO
EJECT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH OF COLORADO.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU
NIGHT OR VERY EARLY FRI MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE
DIRECTION...AND LLVL SUPPORT WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE E
PLAINS AND MTS GREATLY FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOOK FOR ABOUT A 10
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PROBABLE SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY ON FRI FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SAT. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...FUNNELS...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS MAY ALSO YIELD ISOLATED TORNADOES.  PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
PRIMARILY AS SNOW OR GRAUPEL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 FEET.
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS EAST
OF I-25 THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.  THIS IS LARGELY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 14-16Z...AT WHICH TIME
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LARGELY VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  HOWEVER...
ONCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS GOING AGAIN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR 15-18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...18-21Z OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND 21Z-00Z FARTHER EAST. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...AND THEN BECOME ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES WILL ALL SEE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY.  FOR NOW...HAVE VCTS STARTING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS
GENERALLY 19-20Z.  HOWEVER...UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS SPECIFIC STORM CELLS DEVELOP AND APPROACH.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241337
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
737 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.  PLUS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE.  SO...THERE WILL BE A TRIGGER...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS LESS SHEAR.  0-6 KILOMETER BULK VALUES OVER MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY ARE GENERALLY ONLY ABOUT 15-30 KNOTS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 25-35 KNOTS AT 00Z...AND ANYWHERE FROM 40-50 KNOTS
FROM 00Z TO 03Z. SO...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY.  SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THESE AREAS WOULD INCLUDE
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT ELSEWHERE TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR VALUES.  HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND FUNNELS...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.

A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ALL OF IT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...MAKING ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...SOME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
CONTINUE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET.  OUR OBSERVER IN
LEADVILLE AT 10000 FEET CALLED IN WITH 3.3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TO MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING.  ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NE QUAD OF THE STATE
EARLY MON MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TUE AND WED WILL EQUAL WARMER TEMPS...WITH READINGS PUSHING 80F
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THE AREA WILL BE SLIPPING
INTO A MORE DIURNAL MT CONVECTION PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS...AND
ISOLATED AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS. ON THU ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT
TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE UP INTO THE
STATE...AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THU AFTN
AND EVE. TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO
EJECT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH OF COLORADO.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU
NIGHT OR VERY EARLY FRI MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE
DIRECTION...AND LLVL SUPPORT WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE E
PLAINS AND MTS GREATLY FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOOK FOR ABOUT A 10
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PROBABLE SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY ON FRI FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SAT. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...FUNNELS...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS MAY ALSO YIELD ISOLATED TORNADOES.  PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
PRIMARILY AS SNOW OR GRAUPEL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 FEET.
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS EAST
OF I-25 THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.  THIS IS LARGELY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 14-16Z...AT WHICH TIME
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LARGELY VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  HOWEVER...
ONCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS GOING AGAIN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR 15-18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...18-21Z OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND 21Z-00Z FARTHER EAST. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...AND THEN BECOME ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES WILL ALL SEE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY.  FOR NOW...HAVE VCTS STARTING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS
GENERALLY 19-20Z.  HOWEVER...UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS SPECIFIC STORM CELLS DEVELOP AND APPROACH.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 241046
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.  PLUS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE.  SO...THERE WILL BE A TRIGGER...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS LESS SHEAR.  0-6 KILOMETER BULK VALUES OVER MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY ARE GENERALLY ONLY ABOUT 15-30 KNOTS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 25-35 KNOTS AT 00Z...AND ANYWHERE FROM 40-50 KNOTS
FROM 00Z TO 03Z. SO...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY.  SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THESE AREAS WOULD INCLUDE
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT ELSEWHERE TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR VALUES.  HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND FUNNELS...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.

A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ALL OF IT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...MAKING ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...SOME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
CONTINUE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET.  OUR OBSERVER IN
LEADVILLE AT 10000 FEET CALLED IN WITH 3.3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TO MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING.  ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NE QUAD OF THE STATE
EARLY MON MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TUE AND WED WILL EQUAL WARMER TEMPS...WITH READINGS PUSHING 80F
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THE AREA WILL BE SLIPPING
INTO A MORE DIURNAL MT CONVECTION PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS...AND
ISOLATED AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS. ON THU ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT
TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE UP INTO THE
STATE...AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THU AFTN
AND EVE. TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO
EJECT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH OF COLORADO.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU
NIGHT OR VERY EARLY FRI MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE
DIRECTION...AND LLVL SUPPORT WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE E
PLAINS AND MTS GREATLY FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOOK FOR ABOUT A 10
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PROBABLE SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY ON FRI FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SAT. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...FUNNELS...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS MAY ALSO YIELD ISOLATED TORNADOES.  PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
PRIMARILY AS SNOW OR GRAUPEL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 FEET.
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS EAST
OF I-25 THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.  THIS IS LARGELY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 14-16Z...AT WHICH TIME
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LARGELY VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  HOWEVER...
ONCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS GOING AGAIN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR 15-18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...18-21Z OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND 21Z-00Z FARTHER EAST. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...AND THEN BECOME ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES WILL ALL SEE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY.  FOR NOW...HAVE VCTS STARTING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS
GENERALLY 19-20Z.  HOWEVER...UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS SPECIFIC STORM CELLS DEVELOP AND APPROACH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 241046
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.  PLUS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE.  SO...THERE WILL BE A TRIGGER...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS LESS SHEAR.  0-6 KILOMETER BULK VALUES OVER MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY ARE GENERALLY ONLY ABOUT 15-30 KNOTS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 25-35 KNOTS AT 00Z...AND ANYWHERE FROM 40-50 KNOTS
FROM 00Z TO 03Z. SO...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY.  SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THESE AREAS WOULD INCLUDE
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT ELSEWHERE TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR VALUES.  HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND FUNNELS...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.

A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ALL OF IT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...MAKING ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...SOME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
CONTINUE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET.  OUR OBSERVER IN
LEADVILLE AT 10000 FEET CALLED IN WITH 3.3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TO MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING.  ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NE QUAD OF THE STATE
EARLY MON MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TUE AND WED WILL EQUAL WARMER TEMPS...WITH READINGS PUSHING 80F
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THE AREA WILL BE SLIPPING
INTO A MORE DIURNAL MT CONVECTION PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS...AND
ISOLATED AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS. ON THU ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT
TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE UP INTO THE
STATE...AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THU AFTN
AND EVE. TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO
EJECT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH OF COLORADO.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU
NIGHT OR VERY EARLY FRI MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE
DIRECTION...AND LLVL SUPPORT WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE E
PLAINS AND MTS GREATLY FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOOK FOR ABOUT A 10
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PROBABLE SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY ON FRI FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SAT. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...FUNNELS...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS MAY ALSO YIELD ISOLATED TORNADOES.  PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
PRIMARILY AS SNOW OR GRAUPEL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 FEET.
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS EAST
OF I-25 THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.  THIS IS LARGELY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 14-16Z...AT WHICH TIME
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LARGELY VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  HOWEVER...
ONCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS GOING AGAIN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR 15-18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...18-21Z OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND 21Z-00Z FARTHER EAST. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...AND THEN BECOME ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES WILL ALL SEE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY.  FOR NOW...HAVE VCTS STARTING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS
GENERALLY 19-20Z.  HOWEVER...UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS SPECIFIC STORM CELLS DEVELOP AND APPROACH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 MILES OF KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 06Z TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE VCTS IN
THESE TAFS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE NEW TAF ISSUANCE . ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST.  DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT THE THREE TAF SITES.
IN TAFS ONLY HAVE VCTS AS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY LONG. LOWER LEVELS AT KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD BE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. STILL..ANTICIPATING SCATTERED CONVERGE OF CONVECTION AT
THE THREE TAF SITES. -PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PGW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 MILES OF KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 06Z TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE VCTS IN
THESE TAFS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE NEW TAF ISSUANCE . ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST.  DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT THE THREE TAF SITES.
IN TAFS ONLY HAVE VCTS AS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY LONG. LOWER LEVELS AT KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD BE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. STILL..ANTICIPATING SCATTERED CONVERGE OF CONVECTION AT
THE THREE TAF SITES. -PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PGW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 MILES OF KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 06Z TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE VCTS IN
THESE TAFS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE NEW TAF ISSUANCE . ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST.  DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT THE THREE TAF SITES.
IN TAFS ONLY HAVE VCTS AS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY LONG. LOWER LEVELS AT KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD BE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. STILL..ANTICIPATING SCATTERED CONVERGE OF CONVECTION AT
THE THREE TAF SITES. -PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PGW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 232133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS BEING A THREAT...THERE COULD
ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL AGAIN BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 232133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS BEING A THREAT...THERE COULD
ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL AGAIN BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS BEING A THREAT...THERE COULD
ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL AGAIN BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231911
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
111 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MVFR OR
LOW VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231911
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
111 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MVFR OR
LOW VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231731
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1131 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MVFR OR
LOW VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
526 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
526 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
526 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
526 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 230521
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE KALS TAF SITE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 230521
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE KALS TAF SITE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 230521
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE KALS TAF SITE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 222047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL HAVE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
CO PLAINS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 222047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL HAVE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
CO PLAINS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 222047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL HAVE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
CO PLAINS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 222047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL HAVE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
CO PLAINS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221739
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND
UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THERE MAY AGAIN BE MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH SHOULD
THEN DISSIPATE AROUND MIDMORNING SATURDAY. KPUB SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME...HOWEVER WITH TSTMS PROBABLY BEING IN
THE VCNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...IF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THE AREA THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KPUB WHICH COULD MEAN A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE PERIOD...BUT SHOWER/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221739
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND
UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THERE MAY AGAIN BE MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH SHOULD
THEN DISSIPATE AROUND MIDMORNING SATURDAY. KPUB SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME...HOWEVER WITH TSTMS PROBABLY BEING IN
THE VCNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...IF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THE AREA THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KPUB WHICH COULD MEAN A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE PERIOD...BUT SHOWER/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221739
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND
UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THERE MAY AGAIN BE MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH SHOULD
THEN DISSIPATE AROUND MIDMORNING SATURDAY. KPUB SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME...HOWEVER WITH TSTMS PROBABLY BEING IN
THE VCNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...IF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THE AREA THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KPUB WHICH COULD MEAN A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE PERIOD...BUT SHOWER/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221739
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND
UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THERE MAY AGAIN BE MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH SHOULD
THEN DISSIPATE AROUND MIDMORNING SATURDAY. KPUB SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME...HOWEVER WITH TSTMS PROBABLY BEING IN
THE VCNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...IF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THE AREA THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KPUB WHICH COULD MEAN A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE PERIOD...BUT SHOWER/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221526
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
926 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND
UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221214
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221214
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221214
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221214
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





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