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000
FXUS65 KPUB 180510
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

...WARM DAY TOMORROW...

SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE DELAYED CLEARING OF LOW CLOUD
DECK EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ITS LOOKING PRETTY CLEAR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SOME MELTING AS TEMPS TOP OFF IN THE 50S TO
NR 60 DEGREES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP
OFFSET SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT...AND SHOULD ALLOW US TO COOL INTO
THE 30S BY FRI MORNING.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO WRN CO ON FRI. RIDGING AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP H7 TEMPS TO 8 OR 9 DEG C BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE PLAINS WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS MAKING A RUN AT 80 DEGREES. HAVE CUT
BACK HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR MORE FROM AREAS THAT WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...FOR EXAMPLE TELLER COUNTY AND WRN
PUEBLO COUNTY...THE WET MT VALLEY ETC. SNOW WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN
IN THESE AREAS BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR OVER
THE SW MTS IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE ERN RANGES BY EVE.
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF OR EVEN COVERAGE...AS THE BULK
OF UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD OVER THE MTS...SO WILL MENTION ISOLD TS POSSIBLE FOR THE
MT AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A STORM OR TWO WILL BE OVER THE SW MTS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE A SPECTACULAR SPRING DAY FOR MOST OF US. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

...UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING FIRE WEATHER AND DRYLINE
CONCERNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEW TROUGH COMES THROUGH THURSDAY...

SATELLITE SHOWS NEXT DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN COLORADO
CURRENTLY OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS.  THIS
DISTURBANCE IS A MOIST...WARM CORE SYSTEM...CONTAINING AT LEAST SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.  IT IS QUITE A BIT WARMER AND MORE SUBTROPICAL
THAN THE LAST 2 SYSTEMS.  THUS...IT`S IMPACT WILL BE MORE LIKE A
LATE SPRING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAN AN EARLY SPRING SNOWSTORM.

STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND TOWARD COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH IMPACTS STARTING TO REACH COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FARTHER EAST.  SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG MUCH OF THE
DIVIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET.  ALSO...LIFTED INDICES INDICATE A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE BUNCH WITH THE
BULK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
SO...POPS WILL GO UP TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION...
HIGHEST OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
AND THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE.  SO...ONCE AGAIN...ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET...AND THE THREAT OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...
SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER DOWN TO NEAR 7000 FEET.  AT THAT TIME...WE
COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO PLACES LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE A RYE
AREAS.  STILL...WITH THE AIRMASS AND GROUND BEING SO WARM...NO
APPRECIABLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MEANDERS ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD...LEAVING PLENTY OF LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  MORE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED
TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

DUE TO THE SHOWERY/MILD NATURE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT ANY ADVISORY AND/OR WARNING PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED
WITH THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO DRIER/WARMER WITH FIRE WEATHER AND
DRYLINE CONCERNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...PUSHING
THE WEEKEND MOISTURE EAST AND DRYING/WARMING THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE FUELS STATUS.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER FOR SOME EARLY SEASON SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS.  MEANWHILE...BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME HIGH BASED CELLS.  IT`S GETTING TO
BE THAT TIME OF YEAR AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.

ON THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS
COLORADO...BRINGING SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND MAINLY JUST DRY AND
WINDY WEATHER TO THE REST OF THE AREA.  BUT...EARLIER RUNS HAVE HAD
A DEEPER TROUGH COMING THROUGH.  REALLY...TOO EARLY TO TELL AT
THIS POINT. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AT KALS AND KCOS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD IMPACT KALS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT SHOWERS COULD
MOVE EAST OFF THE RAMPART AND WET MOUNTAIN RANGES FRIDAY EVENING
AN IMPACT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 172112
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

...WARM DAY TOMORROW...

SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE DELAYED CLEARING OF LOW CLOUD
DECK EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ITS LOOKING PRETTY CLEAR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SOME MELTING AS TEMPS TOP OFF IN THE 50S TO
NR 60 DEGREES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP
OFFSET SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT...AND SHOULD ALLOW US TO COOL INTO
THE 30S BY FRI MORNING.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO WRN CO ON FRI. RIDGING AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP H7 TEMPS TO 8 OR 9 DEG C BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE PLAINS WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS MAKING A RUN AT 80 DEGREES. HAVE CUT
BACK HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR MORE FROM AREAS THAT WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...FOR EXAMPLE TELLER COUNTY AND WRN
PUEBLO COUNTY...THE WET MT VALLEY ETC. SNOW WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN
IN THESE AREAS BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR OVER
THE SW MTS IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE ERN RANGES BY EVE.
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF OR EVEN COVERAGE...AS THE BULK
OF UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD OVER THE MTS...SO WILL MENTION ISOLD TS POSSIBLE FOR THE
MT AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A STORM OR TWO WILL BE OVER THE SW MTS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE A SPECTACULAR SPRING DAY FOR MOST OF US. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

...UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING FIRE WEATHER AND DRYLINE
CONCERNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEW TROUGH COMES THROUGH THURSDAY...

SATELLITE SHOWS NEXT DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN COLORADO
CURRENTLY OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS.  THIS
DISTURBANCE IS A MOIST...WARM CORE SYSTEM...CONTAINING AT LEAST SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.  IT IS QUITE A BIT WARMER AND MORE SUBTROPICAL
THAN THE LAST 2 SYSTEMS.  THUS...IT`S IMPACT WILL BE MORE LIKE A
LATE SPRING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAN AN EARLY SPRING SNOWSTORM.

STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND TOWARD COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH IMPACTS STARTING TO REACH COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FARTHER EAST.  SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG MUCH OF THE
DIVIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET.  ALSO...LIFTED INDICES INDICATE A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE BUNCH WITH THE
BULK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
SO...POPS WILL GO UP TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION...
HIGHEST OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
AND THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE.  SO...ONCE AGAIN...ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET...AND THE THREAT OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...
SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER DOWN TO NEAR 7000 FEET.  AT THAT TIME...WE
COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO PLACES LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE A RYE
AREAS.  STILL...WITH THE AIRMASS AND GROUND BEING SO WARM...NO
APPRECIABLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MEANDERS ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD...LEAVING PLENTY OF LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  MORE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED
TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

DUE TO THE SHOWERY/MILD NATURE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT ANY ADVISORY AND/OR WARNING PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED
WITH THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO DRIER/WARMER WITH FIRE WEATHER AND
DRYLINE CONCERNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...PUSHING
THE WEEKEND MOISTURE EAST AND DRYING/WARMING THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE FUELS STATUS.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER FOR SOME EARLY SEASON SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS.  MEANWHILE...BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME HIGH BASED CELLS.  IT`S GETTING TO
BE THAT TIME OF YEAR AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.

ON THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS
COLORADO...BRINGING SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND MAINLY JUST DRY AND
WINDY WEATHER TO THE REST OF THE AREA.  BUT...EARLIER RUNS HAVE HAD
A DEEPER TROUGH COMING THROUGH.  REALLY...TOO EARLY TO TELL AT
THIS POINT. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVE...AND VFR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI. WILL SEE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TS
OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE SW MTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD
BY LATE AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 171701
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1101 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY...

SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM FOWLER TO TRINIDAD. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE SW MTNS SEEING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS.
FOG WAS NOTED IN THE WEB CAMS AND SFC OBS ACROSS MAINLY N EL PASO
COUNTY.

TODAY...

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. FOG OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL LINGER INTO MID
MORNING AS MOIST LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. TEMPS WILL RECOVER
TODAY INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVIER SNOW FALL...I.E. S MTNS...WILL REMAIN COOL.

TONIGHT...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S PLAINS AND
20S ELSEWHERE. MAY SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVER FAR E CO
LATE TONIGHT WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW T/TD SPREADS.
/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND EC REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION AND TIMING OF A CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND EVENTUALLY COLORADO...IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM12...00Z RUN IN THIS CASE...
REMAINS THE OUTLIER FOR THIS EVENT...AS IT REMAINS THE FARTHEST
SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT...IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/EC
SOLUTIONS...AND BRINGS DEWPOINTS IN THE FORTIES...6 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THE 00Z GFS...INTO KPUB. WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC
AS THEY HAVE SHOWN THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL VERY LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW LEVELS AOA 10KFT...WHICH MEANS BURN SCARS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MODEL/BUFKIT SEVERE PARAMETERS AROUND THE
CWA ARE ALMOST NON EXISTENT...SO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND VERY ISOLATED.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN ITS WAKE. THE GFS AND EC INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL FIRE UP BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY IN
THESE AREAS AND LEFT POPS AS IS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL I-25 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
COMPLIMENTS OF A 500MB RIDGE AND FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
AND LIKELY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON FUEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. -PJC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

REMAINING LOW CIGS E OF THE MTS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 19Z...BUT
A SCT-BKN DECK COULD PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRI...ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT...SOME PC FG CAN NOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT KALS OR KCOS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
PROBABILITY IS LOW AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PJC
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 171021
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY...

SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM FOWLER TO TRINIDAD. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE SW MTNS SEEING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS.
FOG WAS NOTED IN THE WEB CAMS AND SFC OBS ACROSS MAINLY N EL PASO
COUNTY.

TODAY...

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. FOG OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL LINGER INTO MID
MORNING AS MOIST LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. TEMPS WILL RECOVER
TODAY INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVIER SNOW FALL...I.E. S MTNS...WILL REMAIN COOL.

TONIGHT...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S PLAINS AND
20S ELSEWHERE. MAY SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVER FAR E CO
LATE TONIGHT WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW T/TD SPREADS.
/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND EC REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION AND TIMING OF A CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND EVENTUALLY COLORADO...IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM12...00Z RUN IN THIS CASE...
REMAINS THE OUTLIER FOR THIS EVENT...AS IT REMAINS THE FARTHEST
SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT...IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/EC
SOLUTIONS...AND BRINGS DEWPOINTS IN THE FORTIES...6 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THE 00Z GFS...INTO KPUB. WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC
AS THEY HAVE SHOWN THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL VERY LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW LEVELS AOA 10KFT...WHICH MEANS BURN SCARS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MODEL/BUFKIT SEVERE PARAMETERS AROUND THE
CWA ARE ALMOST NON EXISTENT...SO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND VERY ISOLATED.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN ITS WAKE. THE GFS AND EC INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL FIRE UP BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY IN
THESE AREAS AND LEFT POPS AS IS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL I-25 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
COMPLIMENTS OF A 500MB RIDGE AND FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
AND LIKELY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON FUEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. -PJC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK WINDS IN LLVLS IS ALLOWING FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO REMAIN AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS MORNING. KCOS IS MOST
PROBLEMATIC AS WEAK S FLOW IS ALLOWING FOG FORMATION. BELIEVE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT ALL REGION BY MID MORNING WITH KCOS
LAST TO CLEAR. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE VFR REST OF FORECAST WITH
LIGHT SFC WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PJC
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 170511
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATED LATEST TEMPS AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

RAPIDLY EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM NOW IS MOVING INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY AM SEEING SOME BANDED PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF
SHRA...DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY. DEWPOINTS STILL PRETTY LOW OVER
THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP COOL THINGS OFF THIS EVE AS WET BULB
IS REACHED IN HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING ITS PEAK FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.

A COUPLE OF RECENT TRENDS ARE MAKING FOR A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST
FOR THE SHORT TERM. RECENT GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN IT
HAD BEEN A COUPLE DAYS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO MINUS
5 OR 6 AS OPPOSED TO THE MINUS 10 OR LOWER FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
THIS IS POINTING AT THE SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT. BUT DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND
TIMING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW FALLING AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW 6K
FEET...EXCEPT MAYBE ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE A PARTICULAR CHALLENGE SINCE
ELEVATIONS FROM WALSENBURG TO TRINIDAD ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6000-
6500 FOOT RANGE. SO...EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES THIS EVE COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WET PAVEMENT
AND A FEW INCHES OF SLUSH. HAVE GENERALLY PLAYED THE MIDDLE ROAD OF
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE THAT ELEVATION
FOR THE EARLY EVE. BUT...HIGHER TRRN TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO
SPANISH PEAKS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT WET SNOW...MORE THAN SIX INCHES
FOR SOME AREAS.

OTHER ISSUE IS THE RECENT TREND TOWARDS THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS FALLING
OVER THE SRN ZONES...THE WETS AND SRN SANGRES GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF...FOR EXAMPLE...KEEP
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP SOUTH OF THE PIKES PK REGION. THE NAM
AND RUC..LOWER RES...KEEP HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS SO FAR...AM
INCLINED TO KEEP WITH AT LEAST MODERATE ACCUMS FOR PIKES
PEAK...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT SRN AND ERN SIDES WILL GET
A BIT MORE THIS EVE. MODELS ARE HITTING THE SRN SANGRES AND HIGHER
WETS PRETTY HARD THROUGH 06-08Z TONIGHT. HAVE CONSIDERED UPGRADING
FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT SINCE THE LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER
GIVEN THE WARMER LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS TO BE PRETTY HIGH UP AND SPOTTY. SO...ADVISORIES
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW THE SHORT TERM TRENDS
PRETTY CAREFULLY.

WILL SEE THE SYSTEM CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY FROM N TO S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. BALANCE OF
THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY NICE...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S
OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.  CLOSED LOW MOVES IN
FROM THE PACIFIC...ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE INCREASES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS AN OPEN
TROF. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH COOLING ALOFT...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND
A COLD FRONT...THOUGH IT IS NOT ALL THAT COOL BEHIND IT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  NAM12 IS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT SAT AFTERNOON SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND
50 NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 00Z.  GFS IS A TAD SLOWER...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DROPPING THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ECMWF
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THOUGH A JUST A TAD MOISTER.  EITHER
WAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AGAIN...PROBABLY AROUND
9.5-10KFT...SO BELOW THIS ELEVATION WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BURN
SCARS CLOSELY FOR RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE WALDO.  FOR NOW
THOUGH...THINK THAT GFS PROBABLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE...AND ANY
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AS MODEL CAPE
VALUES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT
AS HIGHER CAPE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST.

THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS EASTERN CO ON SUNDAY...SO AFTER
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOOK A LITTLE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH DROPS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...THEN EVENTUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WED. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE CONDITIONS OF FUELS...MAY NEED SOME FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS DAY.  OTHERWISE...DRY LINE WILL BE LURKING NEAR
THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TRENDS IN THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...SEEM TO SUGGEST
A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND LESS OF A PERSISTENT MERIDIONAL FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO THESE LATEST RUNS KEEP THE DRYLINE JUST TO
OUR EAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR WED AS GFS SHOWS MORE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHICH
EC DOES NOT HAVE...SO JURY IS STILL OUT. EITHER WAY...SHOULD BE AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

KALS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08-10Z TONIGHT WITH REDUCED VIS
AND CIGS TO MVFR TO IFR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
AREA RUNWAYS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

KCOS...A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10-12Z TONIGHT
WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

KPUB...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE...AND PERHAPS MIX WITH SNOW
THROUGH AROUND 12Z WITH REDUCED CIGS TO NEAR MVFR. EXPECT RAIN AND
SNOW TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-
079>082-087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 170256
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
856 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATED LATEST TEMPS AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

RAPIDLY EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM NOW IS MOVING INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY AM SEEING SOME BANDED PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF
SHRA...DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY. DEWPOINTS STILL PRETTY LOW OVER
THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP COOL THINGS OFF THIS EVE AS WET BULB
IS REACHED IN HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING ITS PEAK FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.

A COUPLE OF RECENT TRENDS ARE MAKING FOR A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST
FOR THE SHORT TERM. RECENT GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN IT
HAD BEEN A COUPLE DAYS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO MINUS
5 OR 6 AS OPPOSED TO THE MINUS 10 OR LOWER FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
THIS IS POINTING AT THE SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT. BUT DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND
TIMING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW FALLING AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW 6K
FEET...EXCEPT MAYBE ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE A PARTICULAR CHALLENGE SINCE
ELEVATIONS FROM WALSENBURG TO TRINIDAD ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6000-
6500 FOOT RANGE. SO...EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES THIS EVE COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WET PAVEMENT
AND A FEW INCHES OF SLUSH. HAVE GENERALLY PLAYED THE MIDDLE ROAD OF
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE THAT ELEVATION
FOR THE EARLY EVE. BUT...HIGHER TRRN TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO
SPANISH PEAKS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT WET SNOW...MORE THAN SIX INCHES
FOR SOME AREAS.

OTHER ISSUE IS THE RECENT TREND TOWARDS THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS FALLING
OVER THE SRN ZONES...THE WETS AND SRN SANGRES GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF...FOR EXAMPLE...KEEP
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP SOUTH OF THE PIKES PK REGION. THE NAM
AND RUC..LOWER RES...KEEP HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS SO FAR...AM
INCLINED TO KEEP WITH AT LEAST MODERATE ACCUMS FOR PIKES
PEAK...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT SRN AND ERN SIDES WILL GET
A BIT MORE THIS EVE. MODELS ARE HITTING THE SRN SANGRES AND HIGHER
WETS PRETTY HARD THROUGH 06-08Z TONIGHT. HAVE CONSIDERED UPGRADING
FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT SINCE THE LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER
GIVEN THE WARMER LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS TO BE PRETTY HIGH UP AND SPOTTY. SO...ADVISORIES
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW THE SHORT TERM TRENDS
PRETTY CAREFULLY.

WILL SEE THE SYSTEM CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY FROM N TO S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. BALANCE OF
THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY NICE...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S
OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.  CLOSED LOW MOVES IN
FROM THE PACIFIC...ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE INCREASES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS AN OPEN
TROF. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH COOLING ALOFT...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND
A COLD FRONT...THOUGH IT IS NOT ALL THAT COOL BEHIND IT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  NAM12 IS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT SAT AFTERNOON SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND
50 NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 00Z.  GFS IS A TAD SLOWER...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DROPPING THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ECMWF
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THOUGH A JUST A TAD MOISTER.  EITHER
WAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AGAIN...PROBABLY AROUND
9.5-10KFT...SO BELOW THIS ELEVATION WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BURN
SCARS CLOSELY FOR RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE WALDO.  FOR NOW
THOUGH...THINK THAT GFS PROBABLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE...AND ANY
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AS MODEL CAPE
VALUES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT
AS HIGHER CAPE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST.

THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS EASTERN CO ON SUNDAY...SO AFTER
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOOK A LITTLE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH DROPS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...THEN EVENTUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WED. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE CONDITIONS OF FUELS...MAY NEED SOME FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS DAY.  OTHERWISE...DRY LINE WILL BE LURKING NEAR
THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TRENDS IN THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECWMF...SEEM TO SUGGEST A
MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND LESS OF A PERSISTENT MERIDIONAL FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO THESE LATEST RUNS KEEP THE DRYLINE JUST TO OUR
EAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR WED AS GFS SHOWS MORE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHICH
EC DOES NOT HAVE...SO JURY IS STILL OUT. EITHER WAY...SHOULD BE AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THIS EVE. KCOS WILL BE ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF
PRECIP...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL GO DOWN TO IFR CIGS
AND/OR VIS FOR THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. KPUB WILL FOLLOW SUIT...ABOUT
AN HOUR OR SO LATER AS PRECIP SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND 5500-6000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
KALS COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP TONIGHT...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT
WILL BE ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES...WETS...AND PIKES PEAK. CLEARING
CONDITIONS THU MORNING COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF FG OR BR FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE PRECIP EARLY ON. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-
079>082-087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 162125
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

RAPIDLY EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM NOW IS MOVING INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY AM SEEING SOME BANDED PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF
SHRA...DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY. DEWPOINTS STILL PRETTY LOW OVER
THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP COOL THINGS OFF THIS EVE AS WET BULB
IS REACHED IN HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING ITS PEAK FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.

A COUPLE OF RECENT TRENDS ARE MAKING FOR A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST
FOR THE SHORT TERM. RECENT GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN IT
HAD BEEN A COUPLE DAYS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO MINUS
5 OR 6 AS OPPOSED TO THE MINUS 10 OR LOWER FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
THIS IS POINTING AT THE SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT. BUT DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND
TIMING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW FALLING AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW 6K
FEET...EXCEPT MAYBE ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE A PARTICULAR CHALLENGE SINCE
ELEVATIONS FROM WALSENBURG TO TRINIDAD ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6000-
6500 FOOT RANGE. SO...EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES THIS EVE COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WET PAVEMENT
AND A FEW INCHES OF SLUSH. HAVE GENERALLY PLAYED THE MIDDLE ROAD OF
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE THAT ELEVATION
FOR THE EARLY EVE. BUT...HIGHER TRRN TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO
SPANISH PEAKS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT WET SNOW...MORE THAN SIX INCHES
FOR SOME AREAS.

OTHER ISSUE IS THE RECENT TREND TOWARDS THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS FALLING
OVER THE SRN ZONES...THE WETS AND SRN SANGRES GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF...FOR EXAMPLE...KEEP
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP SOUTH OF THE PIKES PK REGION. THE NAM
AND RUC..LOWER RES...KEEP HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS SO FAR...AM
INCLINED TO KEEP WITH AT LEAST MODERATE ACCUMS FOR PIKES
PEAK...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT SRN AND ERN SIDES WILL GET
A BIT MORE THIS EVE. MODELS ARE HITTING THE SRN SANGRES AND HIGHER
WETS PRETTY HARD THROUGH 06-08Z TONIGHT. HAVE CONSIDERED UPGRADING
FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT SINCE THE LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER
GIVEN THE WARMER LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS TO BE PRETTY HIGH UP AND SPOTTY. SO...ADVISORIES
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW THE SHORT TERM TRENDS
PRETTY CAREFULLY.

WILL SEE THE SYSTEM CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY FROM N TO S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. BALANCE OF
THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY NICE...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S
OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.  CLOSED LOW MOVES IN
FROM THE PACIFIC...ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE INCREASES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS AN OPEN
TROF. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH COOLING ALOFT...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND
A COLD FRONT...THOUGH IT IS NOT ALL THAT COOL BEHIND IT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  NAM12 IS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT SAT AFTERNOON SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND
50 NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 00Z.  GFS IS A TAD SLOWER...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DROPPING THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ECMWF
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THOUGH A JUST A TAD MOISTER.  EITHER
WAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AGAIN...PROBABLY AROUND
9.5-10KFT...SO BELOW THIS ELEVATION WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BURN
SCARS CLOSELY FOR RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE WALDO.  FOR NOW
THOUGH...THINK THAT GFS PROBABLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE...AND ANY
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AS MODEL CAPE
VALUES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT
AS HIGHER CAPE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST.

THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS EASTERN CO ON SUNDAY...SO AFTER
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOOK A LITTLE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH DROPS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...THEN EVENTUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WED. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE CONDITIONS OF FUELS...MAY NEED SOME FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS DAY.  OTHERWISE...DRY LINE WILL BE LURKING NEAR
THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TRENDS IN THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECWMF...SEEM TO SUGGEST A
MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND LESS OF A PERSISTENT MERIDIONAL FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO THESE LATEST RUNS KEEP THE DRYLINE JUST TO OUR
EAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR WED AS GFS SHOWS MORE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHICH
EC DOES NOT HAVE...SO JURY IS STILL OUT. EITHER WAY...SHOULD BE AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THIS EVE. KCOS WILL BE ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF
PRECIP...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL GO DOWN TO IFR CIGS
AND/OR VIS FOR THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. KPUB WILL FOLLOW SUIT...ABOUT
AN HOUR OR SO LATER AS PRECIP SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND 5500-6000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
KALS COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP TONIGHT...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT
WILL BE ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES...WETS...AND PIKES PEAK. CLEARING
CONDITIONS THU MORNING COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF FG OR BR FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE PRECIP EARLY ON. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-087-088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 161757
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1157 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TONIGHT TO
THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...SPANISH PEAKS AND SRN I-25 CORRIDOR.
HAVE EXPANDED OUR WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE WRN LAS
ANIMAS AND HUERFANO COUNTIES. SNOW ACCUMS IN THESE ZONES WILL
BE VERY VARIABLE AND ELEVATION DEPENDENT...WITH HIGH SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LIKELY BELOW
6500 FEET. OF COURSE...A SMALL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS COULD MAKE
A BIG DIFFERENCE IN EXACT ACCUMS FOR THIS AREA. BELIEVE A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA OF THE ZONES WILL BE INVOLVED TO JUSTIFY
AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
TEMPS MAY END UP A BIT HIGHER TODAY THANKS TO THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH TO FALL BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z TONIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR THE S
MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

COLD FRONT/TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER NE CO AT 3AM...WITH A LEE TROUGH
NOTED OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. 3H PRESSURE PRESSURE CHART WAS SHOWING
4 4 MB RISE OVER WYOMING. REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE CO/WY BORDER...WITH VIRGA LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE
MTNS OVER W CO.

TODAY...

COOL FRONT OVER THE CO/WY BORDER REGION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSCEND
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GO AROUND TO NW-N-
NE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. BETTER LLVL MOISTURE OVER NE CO WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE C MTN AREAS LATER TODAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
BY LATER AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PLAINS/S MTNS...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY INCREASING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S PLAINS
AND VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO SHOW THAT PRECIP IS GOING TO
BE MORE LOCALIZED...AND TIED MAINLY TOWARDS THE TERRAIN OF THE S
MTNS....ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND THE S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND
ADJACENT RATON MESA REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ITS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT ~6 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE
HEAVIEST OCCURRING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. I HAVE CHANGED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND S MTN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL GET 4-8"...BUT SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE E SLOPES OF THE WET
MTNS AND S SANGRES MAY SEE LOCALLY A FOOT OR MORE. A BAND OF PRECIP
WILL EVENTUALLY WORK OUT OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURRING S OF US-50. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS (AREAS GENERALLY ABOVE
~6000 FT)...BUT ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN 2" ON GRASSY
AREAS.

NOTE THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE C MTN
AREA NOR THE SW MTNS TONITE. STD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS EVENING. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ON TAP DURING THE MAJORITY
OF THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY ISSUES BEING POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. ALSO...FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT LONG-TERM METEOROLOGICAL WINDOW.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT GENERALLY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS(IN THE FORM OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD THEN
RETURN TO PRIMARILY WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM
LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER(I.E. PRIMARILY IN KANSAS) ON SATURDAY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE DRY-LINE NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AS WELL AS INCREASING WINDS FROM MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OFF
THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE AT 00Z TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE MID TO LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014.

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVE. EXPECT SCT SHRASN TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z AT THE TAF
SITES...AND WILL BECOME STEADY AT KCOS AFTER 00Z...AND KPUB AFTER
01Z. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS IN THE 01-06Z TIME FRAME.
DEPENDING ON PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...SOME PC FG OR BR CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE 15Z THU MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5500-6000 FEET...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AT KPUB LATE TONIGHT. ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 161545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
945 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TONIGHT TO
THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...SPANISH PEAKS AND SRN I-25 CORRIDOR.
HAVE EXPANDED OUR WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE WRN LAS
ANIMAS AND HUERFANO COUNTIES. SNOW ACCUMS IN THESE ZONES WILL
BE VERY VARIABLE AND ELEVATION DEPENDENT...WITH HIGH SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LIKELY BELOW
6500 FEET. OF COURSE...A SMALL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS COULD MAKE
A BIG DIFFERENCE IN EXACT ACCUMS FOR THIS AREA. BELIEVE A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA OF THE ZONES WILL BE INVOLVED TO JUSTIFY
AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
TEMPS MAY END UP A BIT HIGHER TODAY THANKS TO THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH TO FALL BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z TONIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR THE S
MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

COLD FRONT/TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER NE CO AT 3AM...WITH A LEE TROUGH
NOTED OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. 3H PRESSURE PRESSURE CHART WAS SHOWING
4 4 MB RISE OVER WYOMING. REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE CO/WY BORDER...WITH VIRGA LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE
MTNS OVER W CO.

TODAY...

COOL FRONT OVER THE CO/WY BORDER REGION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSCEND
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GO AROUND TO NW-N-
NE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. BETTER LLVL MOISTURE OVER NE CO WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE C MTN AREAS LATER TODAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
BY LATER AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PLAINS/S MTNS...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY INCREASING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S PLAINS
AND VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO SHOW THAT PRECIP IS GOING TO
BE MORE LOCALIZED...AND TIED MAINLY TOWARDS THE TERRAIN OF THE S
MTNS....ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND THE S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND
ADJACENT RATON MESA REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ITS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT ~6 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE
HEAVIEST OCCURRING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. I HAVE CHANGED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND S MTN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL GET 4-8"...BUT SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE E SLOPES OF THE WET
MTNS AND S SANGRES MAY SEE LOCALLY A FOOT OR MORE. A BAND OF PRECIP
WILL EVENTUALLY WORK OUT OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURRING S OF US-50. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS (AREAS GENERALLY ABOVE
~6000 FT)...BUT ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN 2" ON GRASSY
AREAS.

NOTE THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE C MTN
AREA NOR THE SW MTNS TONITE. STD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS EVENING. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ON TAP DURING THE MAJORITY
OF THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY ISSUES BEING POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. ALSO...FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT LONG-TERM METEOROLOGICAL WINDOW.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT GENERALLY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS(IN THE FORM OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD THEN
RETURN TO PRIMARILY WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM
LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER(I.E. PRIMARILY IN KANSAS) ON SATURDAY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE DRY-LINE NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AS WELL AS INCREASING WINDS FROM MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OFF
THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE AT 00Z TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE MID TO LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THU AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NW-N-NE AND...THEN AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z WE WILL SEE PRECIP
DEVELOP OVER KCOS AND KPUB...WITH RAIN/SNOW AT KCOS AND MAINLY RAIN
AT KPUB. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...WITH SOME IFR AT KCOS IN THE
WET SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KALS THIS EVENING WITH PDS
OF MVFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 161115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR THE S
MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

COLD FRONT/TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER NE CO AT 3AM...WITH A LEE TROUGH
NOTED OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. 3H PRESSURE PRESSURE CHART WAS SHOWING
4 4 MB RISE OVER WYOMING. REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE CO/WY BORDER...WITH VIRGA LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE
MTNS OVER W CO.

TODAY...

COOL FRONT OVER THE CO/WY BORDER REGION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSCEND
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GO AROUND TO NW-N-
NE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. BETTER LLVL MOISTURE OVER NE CO WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE C MTN AREAS LATER TODAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
BY LATER AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PLAINS/S MTNS...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY INCREASING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S PLAINS
AND VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO SHOW THAT PRECIP IS GOING TO
BE MORE LOCALIZED...AND TIED MAINLY TOWARDS THE TERRAIN OF THE S
MTNS....ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND THE S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND
ADJACENT RATON MESA REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ITS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT ~6 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE
HEAVIEST OCCURRING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. I HAVE CHANGED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND S MTN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL GET 4-8"...BUT SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE E SLOPES OF THE WET
MTNS AND S SANGRES MAY SEE LOCALLY A FOOT OR MORE. A BAND OF PRECIP
WILL EVENTUALLY WORK OUT OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURRING S OF US-50. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS (AREAS GENERALLY ABOVE
~6000 FT)...BUT ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN 2" ON GRASSY
AREAS.

NOTE THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE C MTN
AREA NOR THE SW MTNS TONITE. STD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS EVENING. /HODANISH


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ON TAP DURING THE MAJORITY
OF THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY ISSUES BEING POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. ALSO...FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT LONG-TERM METEOROLOGICAL WINDOW.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT GENERALLY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS(IN THE FORM OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD THEN
RETURN TO PRIMARILY WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM
LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER(I.E. PRIMARILY IN KANSAS) ON SATURDAY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE DRY-LINE NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AS WELL AS INCREASING WINDS FROM MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OFF
THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE AT 00Z TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE MID TO LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THU AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NW-N-NE AND...THEN AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z WE WILL SEE PRECIP
DEVELOP OVER KCOS AND KPUB...WITH RAIN/SNOW AT KCOS AND MAINLY RAIN
AT KPUB. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...WITH SOME IFR AT KCOS IN THE
WET SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KALS THIS EVENING WITH PDS
OF MVFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 160540
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPDATED TO CHANGE SOME SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE ERN MTS AND SOME OF
THE SERN PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AS EXPECTED...PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM. CLOUDS HAVE
NOT HAMPERED TEMPS...WHICH ARE PRESENTLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SAVE FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS...BUT WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD BE A MUCH MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS AT HT CLIMBING ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
LAST NIGHT...INCREASED WRLY FLOW...AND INCREASED CLOUDS. SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING MOST SPOTS E OF THE MTS. WILL SEE A FEW SHSN MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH ID...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK TO THE SE...REACHING OUR AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...WITH MODELS REMAINING
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. WILL SEE PRECIP SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL TO
ERN MTS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE ERN RANGES N OF KVTP...AND ALONG THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NR 6000 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME WET FLAKES POSSIBLE VC KCOS FOR THE LATE
COMMUTE. TEMPS LIKELY WILL HIGH THEIR MAX EARLY IN THE DAY...NOON
OR SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WITH THE LAST
SYSTEM BUT LIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
OVER OUR AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE STORM...REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A BULLS EYE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE 600MB SURFACE OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C...WHICH STARTS TO
BE IN THE REGION FOR FAVORABLE SNOWFLAKE GROWTH. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL RATE. WITH VERY
WARM GROUND...LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING.
TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE A PREDOMINATELY SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. CURRENTLY...LOOKS LIKE ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL HAVE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...SOME ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTHERN
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PASSING OVER THE PLAINS. COLD AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A MODEST WARM UP
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMED MAXIMUMS ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT
TO VALUES IN THE GUIDANCE.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST US.
SOME MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM EAST OF HAWAII INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY.
THIS SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE MILD AND HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO COLORADO.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE SOME POPS IN THE GRIDS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR MORE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A COOLER DAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT THAN EC WITH STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WEST. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE EC IS FURTHER NORTH.
CURRENTLY FORECAST IS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WHICH IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SERN PLAINS
BEGINNING AROUND 10Z AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SRN BORDER
AROUND MIDMORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WHICH WL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST OR NE ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL SITES...AND WL THEN BE
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 160401
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1001 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPDATED TO CHANGE SOME SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE ERN MTS AND SOME OF
THE SERN PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AS EXPECTED...PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM. CLOUDS HAVE
NOT HAMPERED TEMPS...WHICH ARE PRESENTLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SAVE FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS...BUT WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD BE A MUCH MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS AT HT CLIMBING ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
LAST NIGHT...INCREASED WRLY FLOW...AND INCREASED CLOUDS. SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING MOST SPOTS E OF THE MTS. WILL SEE A FEW SHSN MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH ID...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK TO THE SE...REACHING OUR AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...WITH MODELS REMAINING
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. WILL SEE PRECIP SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL TO
ERN MTS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE ERN RANGES N OF KVTP...AND ALONG THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NR 6000 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME WET FLAKES POSSIBLE VC KCOS FOR THE LATE
COMMUTE. TEMPS LIKELY WILL HIGH THEIR MAX EARLY IN THE DAY...NOON
OR SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WITH THE LAST
SYSTEM BUT LIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
OVER OUR AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE STORM...REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A BULLS EYE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE 600MB SURFACE OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C...WHICH STARTS TO
BE IN THE REGION FOR FAVORABLE SNOWFLAKE GROWTH. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL RATE. WITH VERY
WARM GROUND...LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING.
TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE A PREDOMINATELY SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. CURRENTLY...LOOKS LIKE ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL HAVE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...SOME ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTHERN
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PASSING OVER THE PLAINS. COLD AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A MODEST WARM UP
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMED MAXIMUMS ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT
TO VALUES IN THE GUIDANCE.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST US.
SOME MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM EAST OF HAWAII INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY.
THIS SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE MILD AND HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO COLORADO.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE SOME POPS IN THE GRIDS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR MORE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A COOLER DAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT THAN EC WITH STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WEST. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE EC IS FURTHER NORTH.
CURRENTLY FORECAST IS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WHICH IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS STAYING FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE FAR ERN
PLAINS. WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS FROM THE SW DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AFTER 20-21Z...COULD SEE SHOWERS OF RASN DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY VC KCOS. PALMER DVD COULD SEE SOME SN AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS BY THIS TIME...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
WED EVE. BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL 00-06Z THU. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 152148
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AS EXPECTED...PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM. CLOUDS HAVE
NOT HAMPERED TEMPS...WHICH ARE PRESENTLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SAVE FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS...BUT WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD BE A MUCH MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS AT HT CLIMBING ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
LAST NIGHT...INCREASED WRLY FLOW...AND INCREASED CLOUDS. SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING MOST SPOTS E OF THE MTS. WILL SEE A FEW SHSN MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH ID...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK TO THE SE...REACHING OUR AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...WITH MODELS REMAINING
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. WILL SEE PRECIP SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL TO
ERN MTS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE ERN RANGES N OF KVTP...AND ALONG THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NR 6000 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME WET FLAKES POSSIBLE VC KCOS FOR THE LATE
COMMUTE. TEMPS LIKELY WILL HIGH THEIR MAX EARLY IN THE DAY...NOON
OR SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WITH THE LAST
SYSTEM BUT LIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
OVER OUR AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE STORM...REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A BULLS EYE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE 600MB SURFACE OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C...WHICH STARTS TO
BE IN THE REGION FOR FAVORABLE SNOWFLAKE GROWTH. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL RATE. WITH VERY
WARM GROUND...LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING.
TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE A PREDOMINATELY SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. CURRENTLY...LOOKS LIKE ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL HAVE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...SOME ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTHERN
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PASSING OVER THE PLAINS. COLD AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A MODEST WARM UP
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMED MAXIMUMS ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT
TO VALUES IN THE GUIDANCE.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST US.
SOME MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM EAST OF HAWAII INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY.
THIS SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE MILD AND HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO COLORADO.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE SOME POPS IN THE GRIDS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR MORE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A COOLER DAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT THAN EC WITH STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WEST. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE EC IS FURTHER NORTH.
CURRENTLY FORECAST IS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WHICH IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS STAYING FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE FAR ERN
PLAINS. WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS FROM THE SW DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AFTER 20-21Z...COULD SEE SHOWERS OF RASN DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY VC KCOS. PALMER DVD COULD SEE SOME SN AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS BY THIS TIME...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
WED EVE. BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL 00-06Z THU. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079>082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 151840
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES IN COMBINATION WITH BELOW SEASONAL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SECTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION.  LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER BACA COUNTY...HOWEVER RECENT SNOW UP 4
INCHES DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF BACA COUNTY AS
WELL AS RECENT/LATEST LAND AGENCY INFORMATION THAT FUELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 232...233
AND 237(OTERO...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES RESPECTIVELY)
WILL PRECLUDE ANY NIGHT FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MID-APRIL AVERAGES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

...MORE BENEFICIAL PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...

A RATHER INNOCUOUS WEATHER SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING MORE BENEFICIAL
PRECIP TO THE REGION WED AND WED NITE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THE E FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS
AND ADJ I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WED NITE. THE C MTN REGION WILL ALSO SEE
PRECIP. AREAS WHICH MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP INCLUDE THE SW MTNS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT HEAVY WET SNOW WILL OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE S MTNS/PIKES PEAK REGION.

BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PD...12Z WED...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
CROSSING THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE CO/NM BORDER BY LATE
MORNING...WITH FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. IN THE MEANTIME...A DISTURBANCE WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE C MTN REGION DURING THE MORNING.

BY LATER WED AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST AND
DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY EVENING...THE PRECIP OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR/S MTN REGION WILL BE AT ITS HEAVIEST AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG WITH WELL DEFINED 700 MB CONVERGENCE AFFECTS THE REGION.
ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WELL DEFINED "QPF MAXIMUMS" ALONG THE I-25/S
MTN AREAS AND HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE WHY THIS WILL NOT VERIFY.
MODELS SHOW OVER 1/2" OF LIQUID AND THESE VALUES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE THAT JUST
WENT BY...SO WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW BELOW ~6500 FEET AS WE DID
THE OTHER DAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW GENERALLY
ABOVE 7500 FEET...WITH ANOTHER FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE PIKE
PEAK/WET MTN/SANGRE DE CRISTO MTN REGIONS. ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO
GO WITH HILITES...BUT WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY FOR THE S MTN AREAS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT NOT
MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH COMING IN FROM SOUTHERN
CALIF...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND..ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WX IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL SEE SFC WINDS AND WINDS ALOFT PICK UP A BIT FROM THE WEST
TO SW TODAY...THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE E OVER THE PLAINS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WED. INITIAL PRECIP WILL BE RAIN FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 7000 FT MSL...BUT WILL SEE PRECIP CHANGE TO SNOW
AT KCOS AND KPUB LATER WED EVE...AFTER 22-00Z FOR KCOS AND 01-03Z
FOR KPUB. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 151024
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
424 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES IN COMBINATION WITH BELOW SEASONAL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SECTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION.  LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER BACA COUNTY...HOWEVER RECENT SNOW UP 4
INCHES DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF BACA COUNTY AS
WELL AS RECENT/LATEST LAND AGENCY INFORMATION THAT FUELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 232...233
AND 237(OTERO...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES RESPECTIVELY)
WILL PRECLUDE ANY NIGHT FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MID-APRIL AVERAGES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

...MORE BENEFICIAL PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...

A RATHER INNOCUOUS WEATHER SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING MORE BENEFICIAL
PRECIP TO THE REGION WED AND WED NITE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THE E FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS
AND ADJ I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WED NITE. THE C MTN REGION WILL ALSO SEE
PRECIP. AREAS WHICH MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP INCLUDE THE SW MTNS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT HEAVY WET SNOW WILL OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE S MTNS/PIKES PEAK REGION.

BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PD...12Z WED...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
CROSSING THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE CO/NM BORDER BY LATE
MORNING...WITH FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. IN THE MEANTIME...A DISTURBANCE WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE C MTN REGION DURING THE MORNING.

BY LATER WED AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST AND
DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY EVENING...THE PRECIP OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR/S MTN REGION WILL BE AT ITS HEAVIEST AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG WITH WELL DEFINED 700 MB CONVERGENCE AFFECTS THE REGION.
ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WELL DEFINED "QPF MAXIMUMS" ALONG THE I-25/S
MTN AREAS AND HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE WHY THIS WILL NOT VERIFY.
MODELS SHOW OVER 1/2" OF LIQUID AND THESE VALUES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE THAT JUST
WENT BY...SO WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW BELOW ~6500 FEET AS WE DID
THE OTHER DAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW GENERALLY
ABOVE 7500 FEET...WITH ANOTHER FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE PIKE
PEAK/WET MTN/SANGRE DE CRISTO MTN REGIONS. ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO
GO WITH HILITES...BUT WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY FOR THE S MTN AREAS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT NOT
MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH COMING IN FROM SOUTHERN
CALIF...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND..ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WX IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO
BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77





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