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000
FXUS65 KPUB 301023
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
423 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERN END OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
PLENTIFUL THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO STAY
FAIRLY ISOLATED DESPITE THE WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.
STEERING CURRENTS SILL FAVORABLE TO PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO
THE PLAINS...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SUSPECT STORMS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS TODAY A DEGF OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE QUICKLY
AS ANY UPPER FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD. AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS AHEAD OF NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH...SUSPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS....AND NUDGED MIN T GRID
UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SUNDAY...TROUGH PASSES MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE
INTO KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AND HAS A NARROW
RIBBON OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER KIOWA COUNTY. SUSPECT THE
NAM IS POOLING TOO MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.

.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH PASSED
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER MONDAY
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. FOLLOWED
LEAD OF SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. NAM SUGGESTS MODEST CAPES IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB. FURTHER
WEST...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS A GOOD IDEA OF INCREASING POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MODESTLY WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...BUT STILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE AVERAGE. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...MAIN IMPACT OF ANY TSRA WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TSRA IS AT KCOS...BUT
WON`T CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301023
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
423 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERN END OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
PLENTIFUL THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO STAY
FAIRLY ISOLATED DESPITE THE WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.
STEERING CURRENTS SILL FAVORABLE TO PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO
THE PLAINS...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SUSPECT STORMS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS TODAY A DEGF OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE QUICKLY
AS ANY UPPER FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD. AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS AHEAD OF NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH...SUSPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS....AND NUDGED MIN T GRID
UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SUNDAY...TROUGH PASSES MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE
INTO KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AND HAS A NARROW
RIBBON OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER KIOWA COUNTY. SUSPECT THE
NAM IS POOLING TOO MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.

.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH PASSED
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER MONDAY
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. FOLLOWED
LEAD OF SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. NAM SUGGESTS MODEST CAPES IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB. FURTHER
WEST...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS A GOOD IDEA OF INCREASING POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MODESTLY WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...BUT STILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE AVERAGE. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...MAIN IMPACT OF ANY TSRA WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TSRA IS AT KCOS...BUT
WON`T CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 300528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENTLY...

AT 1 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE UP IN NE CO AND THEY WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WERE WARM...WITH MID
80S OVER THE PLAINS...U70S OVER EL PASO COUNTY...AND GENERALLY 60S
AND 70S IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NNW AT
5 TO 15 MPH.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT....

A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE GREATER PIKES
PEAK REGION. A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST
OF THE MTNS WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS MOVING SE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. AFTER SUNSET...ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. WITH DWPTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING
ALOFT...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS VERY LOW...SO I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY BURN SCAR ISSUES ATTM.

SATURDAY...

BASED ON GUIDANCE...IT WILL LIKELY BE DRYER TOMORROW THAN TODAY AS
MID LVL RIDGE MOVE OVERHEAD AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED. IT WILL BE HOT ON THIS
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90-94F RANGE
MOST OF PLAINS WITH 70S AND 80S VALLEYS..50S AND 60S MTNS.

SUNDAY...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER REGION AND THIS WILL USHER A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO COME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND/OR
AFTERNOON. ATMOS APPEARS DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT I WOULD EXPECT
WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO SAT. TEMPS MAY
ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER ON THIS DAY...DEPENDING ON THE FROPA. FOR
NOW...I HAVE TEMPS IN THE M90S MOST OF PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY
TSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY...

DRY WX EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD WITH TEMPS COOLING
BACK DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE.

BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT FRIDAY.
ALSO...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM NEXT THURSDAY
INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

FINALLY...GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL 08Z. THESE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF KCOS AND KPUB AND NOT AFFECT THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...AIRMASS LOOKS DRIER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BE MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE VCTS
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENTLY...

AT 1 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE UP IN NE CO AND THEY WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WERE WARM...WITH MID
80S OVER THE PLAINS...U70S OVER EL PASO COUNTY...AND GENERALLY 60S
AND 70S IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NNW AT
5 TO 15 MPH.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT....

A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE GREATER PIKES
PEAK REGION. A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST
OF THE MTNS WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS MOVING SE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. AFTER SUNSET...ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. WITH DWPTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING
ALOFT...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS VERY LOW...SO I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY BURN SCAR ISSUES ATTM.

SATURDAY...

BASED ON GUIDANCE...IT WILL LIKELY BE DRYER TOMORROW THAN TODAY AS
MID LVL RIDGE MOVE OVERHEAD AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED. IT WILL BE HOT ON THIS
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90-94F RANGE
MOST OF PLAINS WITH 70S AND 80S VALLEYS..50S AND 60S MTNS.

SUNDAY...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER REGION AND THIS WILL USHER A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO COME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND/OR
AFTERNOON. ATMOS APPEARS DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT I WOULD EXPECT
WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO SAT. TEMPS MAY
ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER ON THIS DAY...DEPENDING ON THE FROPA. FOR
NOW...I HAVE TEMPS IN THE M90S MOST OF PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY
TSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY...

DRY WX EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD WITH TEMPS COOLING
BACK DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE.

BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT FRIDAY.
ALSO...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM NEXT THURSDAY
INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

FINALLY...GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL 08Z. THESE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF KCOS AND KPUB AND NOT AFFECT THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...AIRMASS LOOKS DRIER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BE MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE VCTS
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 292101
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENTLY...

AT 1 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE UP IN NE CO AND THEY WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WERE WARM...WITH MID
80S OVER THE PLAINS...U70S OVER EL PASO COUNTY...AND GENERALLY 60S
AND 70S IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NNW AT
5 TO 15 MPH.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT....

A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE GREATER PIKES
PEAK REGION. A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST
OF THE MTNS WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS MOVING SE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. AFTER SUNSET...ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. WITH DWPTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING
ALOFT...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS VERY LOW...SO I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY BURN SCAR ISSUES ATTM.

SATURDAY...

BASED ON GUIDANCE...IT WILL LIKELY BE DRYER TOMORROW THAN TODAY AS
MID LVL RIDGE MOVE OVERHEAD AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED. IT WILL BE HOT ON THIS
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90-94F RANGE
MOST OF PLAINS WITH 70S AND 80S VALLEYS..50S AND 60S MTNS.

SUNDAY...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER REGION AND THIS WILL USHER A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO COME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND/OR
AFTERNOON. ATMOS APPEARS DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT I WOULD EXPECT
WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO SAT. TEMPS MAY
ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER ON THIS DAY...DEPENDING ON THE FROPA. FOR
NOW...I HAVE TEMPS IN THE M90S MOST OF PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY
TSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY...

DRY WX EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD WITH TEMPS COOLING
BACK DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S PLAINS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE.

BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT FRIDAY.
ALSO...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM NEXT THURSDAY
INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

FINALLY...GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCES
OF STORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS WILL BE AT COS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 292101
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENTLY...

AT 1 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE UP IN NE CO AND THEY WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WERE WARM...WITH MID
80S OVER THE PLAINS...U70S OVER EL PASO COUNTY...AND GENERALLY 60S
AND 70S IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NNW AT
5 TO 15 MPH.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT....

A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE GREATER PIKES
PEAK REGION. A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST
OF THE MTNS WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS MOVING SE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. AFTER SUNSET...ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. WITH DWPTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING
ALOFT...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS VERY LOW...SO I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY BURN SCAR ISSUES ATTM.

SATURDAY...

BASED ON GUIDANCE...IT WILL LIKELY BE DRYER TOMORROW THAN TODAY AS
MID LVL RIDGE MOVE OVERHEAD AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED. IT WILL BE HOT ON THIS
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90-94F RANGE
MOST OF PLAINS WITH 70S AND 80S VALLEYS..50S AND 60S MTNS.

SUNDAY...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER REGION AND THIS WILL USHER A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO COME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND/OR
AFTERNOON. ATMOS APPEARS DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT I WOULD EXPECT
WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO SAT. TEMPS MAY
ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER ON THIS DAY...DEPENDING ON THE FROPA. FOR
NOW...I HAVE TEMPS IN THE M90S MOST OF PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY
TSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY...

DRY WX EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD WITH TEMPS COOLING
BACK DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S PLAINS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE.

BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT FRIDAY.
ALSO...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM NEXT THURSDAY
INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

FINALLY...GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCES
OF STORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS WILL BE AT COS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291711
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS STATE WITH YESTERDAYS PASSING
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS EXITING THE
FAR SE PLAINS AND SOME CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO. THE DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES HAS LEAD TO A CRISP MORNING WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY AS NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUES INTO
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE..ALONG WITH SOME UVV AHEAD
OF SAID WAVE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW
STORMS TO PUSH OUT ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING GENERALLY
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AOA H6 AND CONTINUED
DRYING IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
BEING THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY. SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRYING
TO DEVELOP SOME WAA SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS A TAD OVERDONE ALTHOUGH I DID KEEP SILENT
POPS ACROSS SE COLORADO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES C TODAY OWNING TO A 3-7F BUMP IN HIGHS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THEN TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY. THERE
MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SAT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PUSHING STORMS ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. WITH LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ON SUN...TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY
SPARSE...AS BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE APPROACHING UPPER JET. MAX TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN
SHOULD RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND READINGS COULD REACH THE
MID 90S OVER THE LOWER ARK VALLEY SUN AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN EVENING AS SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH CO. GIVEN STRONGEST UPPER FORCING
IS WELL NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO...EXPECT ANY TSRA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STAY WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT MON/TUE...BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS
TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY MON AS AIR MASS WILL
STAY FAIRLY STABLE. ECMWF HAS A SECONDARY WAVE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS LITTLE SIGN
OF THIS FEATURE AND INSTEAD LIFTS THE UPPER JET FAIRLY QUICKLY
BACK NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN EITHER CASE KEEP
MOST OF THE REGION DRY MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH TSRA CHANCES
LIMITED TO AREA ALONG THE KS BORDER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST. MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE NEW WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUE. WED/THU LOOK HOT
AND FAIRLY DRY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY WORK FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO SPARK A FEW TSRA ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THU
AFTERNOON. EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE WEEK STILL
RATHER UNCLEAR...THOUGH IT APPEARS A RESURGENCE OF THE MONSOON MAY
BE POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS DURING THE NEXT 24. ISOLATED TSRA WILL OCCUR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION
EXPLICITLY IN TAF PRODUCT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291711
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS STATE WITH YESTERDAYS PASSING
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS EXITING THE
FAR SE PLAINS AND SOME CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO. THE DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES HAS LEAD TO A CRISP MORNING WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY AS NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUES INTO
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE..ALONG WITH SOME UVV AHEAD
OF SAID WAVE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW
STORMS TO PUSH OUT ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING GENERALLY
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AOA H6 AND CONTINUED
DRYING IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
BEING THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY. SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRYING
TO DEVELOP SOME WAA SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS A TAD OVERDONE ALTHOUGH I DID KEEP SILENT
POPS ACROSS SE COLORADO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES C TODAY OWNING TO A 3-7F BUMP IN HIGHS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THEN TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY. THERE
MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SAT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PUSHING STORMS ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. WITH LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ON SUN...TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY
SPARSE...AS BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE APPROACHING UPPER JET. MAX TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN
SHOULD RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND READINGS COULD REACH THE
MID 90S OVER THE LOWER ARK VALLEY SUN AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN EVENING AS SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH CO. GIVEN STRONGEST UPPER FORCING
IS WELL NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO...EXPECT ANY TSRA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STAY WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT MON/TUE...BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS
TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY MON AS AIR MASS WILL
STAY FAIRLY STABLE. ECMWF HAS A SECONDARY WAVE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS LITTLE SIGN
OF THIS FEATURE AND INSTEAD LIFTS THE UPPER JET FAIRLY QUICKLY
BACK NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN EITHER CASE KEEP
MOST OF THE REGION DRY MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH TSRA CHANCES
LIMITED TO AREA ALONG THE KS BORDER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST. MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE NEW WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUE. WED/THU LOOK HOT
AND FAIRLY DRY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY WORK FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO SPARK A FEW TSRA ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THU
AFTERNOON. EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE WEEK STILL
RATHER UNCLEAR...THOUGH IT APPEARS A RESURGENCE OF THE MONSOON MAY
BE POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS DURING THE NEXT 24. ISOLATED TSRA WILL OCCUR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION
EXPLICITLY IN TAF PRODUCT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291031
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
431 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS STATE WITH YESTERDAYS PASSING
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS EXITING THE
FAR SE PLAINS AND SOME CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO. THE DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES HAS LEAD TO A CRISP MORNING WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY AS NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUES INTO
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE..ALONG WITH SOME UVV AHEAD
OF SAID WAVE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW
STORMS TO PUSH OUT ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING GENERALLY
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AOA H6 AND CONTINUED
DRYING IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
BEING THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY. SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRYING
TO DEVELOP SOME WAA SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS A TAD OVERDONE ALTHOUGH I DID KEEP SILENT
POPS ACROSS SE COLORADO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES C TODAY OWNING TO A 3-7F BUMP IN HIGHS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THEN TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY. THERE
MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SAT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PUSHING STORMS ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. WITH LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ON SUN...TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY
SPARSE...AS BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE APPROACHING UPPER JET. MAX TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN
SHOULD RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND READINGS COULD REACH THE
MID 90S OVER THE LOWER ARK VALLEY SUN AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN EVENING AS SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH CO. GIVEN STRONGEST UPPER FORCING
IS WELL NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO...EXPECT ANY TSRA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STAY WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT MON/TUE...BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS
TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY MON AS AIR MASS WILL
STAY FAIRLY STABLE. ECMWF HAS A SECONDARY WAVE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS LITTLE SIGN
OF THIS FEATURE AND INSTEAD LIFTS THE UPPER JET FAIRLY QUICKLY
BACK NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN EITHER CASE KEEP
MOST OF THE REGION DRY MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH TSRA CHANCES
LIMITED TO AREA ALONG THE KS BORDER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST. MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE NEW WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUE. WED/THU LOOK HOT
AND FAIRLY DRY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY WORK FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO SPARK A FEW TSRA ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THU
AFTERNOON. EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE WEEK STILL
RATHER UNCLEAR...THOUGH IT APPEARS A RESURGENCE OF THE MONSOON MAY
BE POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCES
OF STORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS WILL BE AT COS...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN
VCTS ATTM. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291031
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
431 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS STATE WITH YESTERDAYS PASSING
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS EXITING THE
FAR SE PLAINS AND SOME CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO. THE DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES HAS LEAD TO A CRISP MORNING WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY AS NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUES INTO
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE..ALONG WITH SOME UVV AHEAD
OF SAID WAVE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW
STORMS TO PUSH OUT ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING GENERALLY
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AOA H6 AND CONTINUED
DRYING IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
BEING THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY. SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRYING
TO DEVELOP SOME WAA SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS A TAD OVERDONE ALTHOUGH I DID KEEP SILENT
POPS ACROSS SE COLORADO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES C TODAY OWNING TO A 3-7F BUMP IN HIGHS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THEN TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY. THERE
MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SAT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PUSHING STORMS ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. WITH LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ON SUN...TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY
SPARSE...AS BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE APPROACHING UPPER JET. MAX TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN
SHOULD RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND READINGS COULD REACH THE
MID 90S OVER THE LOWER ARK VALLEY SUN AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN EVENING AS SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH CO. GIVEN STRONGEST UPPER FORCING
IS WELL NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO...EXPECT ANY TSRA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STAY WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT MON/TUE...BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS
TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY MON AS AIR MASS WILL
STAY FAIRLY STABLE. ECMWF HAS A SECONDARY WAVE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS LITTLE SIGN
OF THIS FEATURE AND INSTEAD LIFTS THE UPPER JET FAIRLY QUICKLY
BACK NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN EITHER CASE KEEP
MOST OF THE REGION DRY MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH TSRA CHANCES
LIMITED TO AREA ALONG THE KS BORDER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST. MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE NEW WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUE. WED/THU LOOK HOT
AND FAIRLY DRY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY WORK FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO SPARK A FEW TSRA ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THU
AFTERNOON. EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE WEEK STILL
RATHER UNCLEAR...THOUGH IT APPEARS A RESURGENCE OF THE MONSOON MAY
BE POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCES
OF STORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS WILL BE AT COS...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN
VCTS ATTM. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290525
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1125 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING EARLIER THAN GRIDS PORTRAYED FOR
NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GRIDS WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT EARLIER END TO PRECIPITATION. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENTLY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MAINLY OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND
C MTNS...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WERE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH READING MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WAT VAP IMGY SHOWS THE TROUGH ALOFT WAS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF CO AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS HEATING
DECREASES...PRECIP WILL DECREASE WITH ONLY SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR E PLAINS BY LATE EVENING. WITH LIMITED CAPE...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG STORM ACTIVITY OR HEAVY RAIN...AND ANY
STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AT A STEADY CLIP.

FOR TOMORROW...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST AND HEIGHTS BEING TO
RISE...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AREAS DRYING OUT AND TEMPS WARMING UP INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE RELEGATED TO THE MTNS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

...HOT AND DRY END OF AUGUST AND BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER...

EXTENDED FORECAST NOT LOOKING TOO ACTIVE AT THIS POINT. AFTER THIS
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER
STRENGTHENING W-SW FLOW...WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE PLAINS ON THE
WARM SIDE AND MAINLY DRY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME ISOLD STORMS OVER THE MTS...BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. SHOULD GET
INTO THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN...WITH POPS
NEGLIGIBLE. MT AREAS WILL SEE COMFORTABLE 70S THIS WEEKEND.

AS THE JET STAYS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
COOLING OFF FOR MONDAY. WE THEN STAY UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC TO ZONAL
FLOW AS THE JET REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SET OFF SOME CONVECTION OVER KS
AND NE CO...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO NE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART WE REMAIN ON THE DRY AND WARM SIDE.

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY REAL RETURN OF THE MONSOON UNTIL POSSIBLY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN OF SRLY FLOW ALOFT. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED NORTHERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS AT TIMES AT KCOS OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY THERE
WILL BE POCKETS OF WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE LEE OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT KCOS AND KPUB WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  KALS WILL SEE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AFTER 18Z THEN DRIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. KCOS HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING -TSRA AFFECT THE TERMINAL SO HAVE INTRODUCED A VCTS
GROUP AFTER 21Z. ISOLATED -TSRA COULD AFFECT KALS AND KPUB...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 290525
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1125 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING EARLIER THAN GRIDS PORTRAYED FOR
NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GRIDS WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT EARLIER END TO PRECIPITATION. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENTLY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MAINLY OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND
C MTNS...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WERE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH READING MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WAT VAP IMGY SHOWS THE TROUGH ALOFT WAS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF CO AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS HEATING
DECREASES...PRECIP WILL DECREASE WITH ONLY SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR E PLAINS BY LATE EVENING. WITH LIMITED CAPE...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG STORM ACTIVITY OR HEAVY RAIN...AND ANY
STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AT A STEADY CLIP.

FOR TOMORROW...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST AND HEIGHTS BEING TO
RISE...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AREAS DRYING OUT AND TEMPS WARMING UP INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE RELEGATED TO THE MTNS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

...HOT AND DRY END OF AUGUST AND BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER...

EXTENDED FORECAST NOT LOOKING TOO ACTIVE AT THIS POINT. AFTER THIS
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER
STRENGTHENING W-SW FLOW...WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE PLAINS ON THE
WARM SIDE AND MAINLY DRY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME ISOLD STORMS OVER THE MTS...BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. SHOULD GET
INTO THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN...WITH POPS
NEGLIGIBLE. MT AREAS WILL SEE COMFORTABLE 70S THIS WEEKEND.

AS THE JET STAYS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
COOLING OFF FOR MONDAY. WE THEN STAY UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC TO ZONAL
FLOW AS THE JET REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SET OFF SOME CONVECTION OVER KS
AND NE CO...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO NE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART WE REMAIN ON THE DRY AND WARM SIDE.

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY REAL RETURN OF THE MONSOON UNTIL POSSIBLY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN OF SRLY FLOW ALOFT. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED NORTHERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS AT TIMES AT KCOS OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY THERE
WILL BE POCKETS OF WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE LEE OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT KCOS AND KPUB WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  KALS WILL SEE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AFTER 18Z THEN DRIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. KCOS HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING -TSRA AFFECT THE TERMINAL SO HAVE INTRODUCED A VCTS
GROUP AFTER 21Z. ISOLATED -TSRA COULD AFFECT KALS AND KPUB...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290014
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING EARLIER THAN GRIDS PROTRAYED FOR
NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GRIDS WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT EARLIER END TO PRECIPITATION. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENTLY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MAINLY OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND
C MTNS...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WERE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH READING MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WAT VAP IMGY SHOWS THE TROUGH ALOFT WAS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF CO AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS HEATING
DECREASES...PRECIP WILL DECREASE WITH ONLY SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR E PLAINS BY LATE EVENING. WITH LIMITED CAPE...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG STORM ACTIVITY OR HEAVY RAIN...AND ANY
STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AT A STEADY CLIP.

FOR TOMORROW...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST AND HEIGHTS BEING TO
RISE...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AREAS DRYING OUT AND TEMPS WARMING UP INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE RELEGATED TO THE MTNS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

...HOT AND DRY END OF AUGUST AND BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER...

EXTENDED FORECAST NOT LOOKING TOO ACTIVE AT THIS POINT. AFTER THIS
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER
STRENGTHENING W-SW FLOW...WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE PLAINS ON THE
WARM SIDE AND MAINLY DRY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME ISOLD STORMS OVER THE MTS...BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. SHOULD GET
INTO THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN...WITH POPS
NEGLIGIBLE. MT AREAS WILL SEE COMFORTABLE 70S THIS WEEKEND.

AS THE JET STAYS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
COOLING OFF FOR MONDAY. WE THEN STAY UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC TO ZONAL
FLOW AS THE JET REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SET OFF SOME CONVECTION OVER KS
AND NE CO...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO NE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART WE REMAIN ON THE DRY AND WARM SIDE.

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY REAL RETURN OF THE MONSOON UNTIL POSSIBLY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN OF SRLY FLOW ALOFT. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KCOS...KALS AND KPUB. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT EACH SITE...BUT PRECIP WILL BE
BRIEF AS STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 290014
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING EARLIER THAN GRIDS PROTRAYED FOR
NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GRIDS WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT EARLIER END TO PRECIPITATION. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENTLY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MAINLY OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND
C MTNS...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WERE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH READING MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WAT VAP IMGY SHOWS THE TROUGH ALOFT WAS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF CO AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS HEATING
DECREASES...PRECIP WILL DECREASE WITH ONLY SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR E PLAINS BY LATE EVENING. WITH LIMITED CAPE...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG STORM ACTIVITY OR HEAVY RAIN...AND ANY
STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AT A STEADY CLIP.

FOR TOMORROW...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST AND HEIGHTS BEING TO
RISE...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AREAS DRYING OUT AND TEMPS WARMING UP INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE RELEGATED TO THE MTNS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

...HOT AND DRY END OF AUGUST AND BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER...

EXTENDED FORECAST NOT LOOKING TOO ACTIVE AT THIS POINT. AFTER THIS
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER
STRENGTHENING W-SW FLOW...WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE PLAINS ON THE
WARM SIDE AND MAINLY DRY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME ISOLD STORMS OVER THE MTS...BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. SHOULD GET
INTO THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN...WITH POPS
NEGLIGIBLE. MT AREAS WILL SEE COMFORTABLE 70S THIS WEEKEND.

AS THE JET STAYS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
COOLING OFF FOR MONDAY. WE THEN STAY UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC TO ZONAL
FLOW AS THE JET REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SET OFF SOME CONVECTION OVER KS
AND NE CO...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO NE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART WE REMAIN ON THE DRY AND WARM SIDE.

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY REAL RETURN OF THE MONSOON UNTIL POSSIBLY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN OF SRLY FLOW ALOFT. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KCOS...KALS AND KPUB. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT EACH SITE...BUT PRECIP WILL BE
BRIEF AS STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 282040
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
240 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENTLY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MAINLY OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND
C MTNS...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WERE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH READING MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WAT VAP IMGY SHOWS THE TROUGH ALOFT WAS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF CO AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS HEATING
DECREASES...PRECIP WILL DECREASE WITH ONLY SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR E PLAINS BY LATE EVENING. WITH LIMITED CAPE...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG STORM ACTIVITY OR HEAVY RAIN...AND ANY
STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AT A STEADY CLIP.

FOR TOMORROW...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST AND HEIGHTS BEING TO
RISE...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AREAS DRYING OUT AND TEMPS WARMING UP INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE RELEGATED TO THE MTNS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING DRY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

...HOT AND DRY END OF AUGUST AND BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER...

EXTENDED FORECAST NOT LOOKING TOO ACTIVE AT THIS POINT. AFTER THIS
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER
STRENGTHENING W-SW FLOW...WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE PLAINS ON THE
WARM SIDE AND MAINLY DRY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME ISOLD STORMS OVER THE MTS...BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. SHOULD GET
INTO THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN...WITH POPS
NEGLIGIBLE. MT AREAS WILL SEE COMFORTABLE 70S THIS WEEKEND.

AS THE JET STAYS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
COOLING OFF FOR MONDAY. WE THEN STAY UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC TO ZONAL
FLOW AS THE JET REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SET OFF SOME CONVECTION OVER KS
AND NE CO...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO NE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART WE REMAIN ON THE DRY AND WARM SIDE.

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY REAL RETURN OF THE MONSOON UNTIL POSSIBLY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN OF SRLY FLOW ALOFT. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
LIKE THE NEXT POTENTIAL THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. ROSE
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KCOS...KALS AND KPUB. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT EACH SITE...BUT PRECIP WILL BE
BRIEF AS STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 282040
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
240 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENTLY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MAINLY OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND
C MTNS...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WERE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH READING MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WAT VAP IMGY SHOWS THE TROUGH ALOFT WAS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF CO AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS HEATING
DECREASES...PRECIP WILL DECREASE WITH ONLY SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR E PLAINS BY LATE EVENING. WITH LIMITED CAPE...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG STORM ACTIVITY OR HEAVY RAIN...AND ANY
STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AT A STEADY CLIP.

FOR TOMORROW...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST AND HEIGHTS BEING TO
RISE...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AREAS DRYING OUT AND TEMPS WARMING UP INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE RELEGATED TO THE MTNS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING DRY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

...HOT AND DRY END OF AUGUST AND BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER...

EXTENDED FORECAST NOT LOOKING TOO ACTIVE AT THIS POINT. AFTER THIS
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER
STRENGTHENING W-SW FLOW...WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE PLAINS ON THE
WARM SIDE AND MAINLY DRY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME ISOLD STORMS OVER THE MTS...BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. SHOULD GET
INTO THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN...WITH POPS
NEGLIGIBLE. MT AREAS WILL SEE COMFORTABLE 70S THIS WEEKEND.

AS THE JET STAYS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
COOLING OFF FOR MONDAY. WE THEN STAY UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC TO ZONAL
FLOW AS THE JET REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SET OFF SOME CONVECTION OVER KS
AND NE CO...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO NE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART WE REMAIN ON THE DRY AND WARM SIDE.

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY REAL RETURN OF THE MONSOON UNTIL POSSIBLY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN OF SRLY FLOW ALOFT. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
LIKE THE NEXT POTENTIAL THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. ROSE
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KCOS...KALS AND KPUB. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT EACH SITE...BUT PRECIP WILL BE
BRIEF AS STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281726
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH CURRENT DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SE PLAINS DECREASING AS
EMBEDDED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST.

TODAY...WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN VORT MAX CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NSSL WRF...HRRR AND RAP WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE PICKED UP ON FURTHER NORTH MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE
KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTS WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE
MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS TODAY BEING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. WITH COOLING ALOFT...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
30S AT THE PEAKS...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AOA 12K FT TODAY.

TONIGHT...SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE AND SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND STORMS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH AT OR BELOW NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

FRIDAY THE UPR TROF WL BE EAST OF THE STATE AND AN UPR RIDGE WL BE
BUILDING OVR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MSTR AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY OVR THE HYR
TRRN. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.  SAT AN UPR TROF OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BRING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVR THE STATE. MSTR OVR THE AREA INCREASES A LITTLE...ALTHOUGH
THE NAM SHOWS MORE MSTR AND BETTER PCPN CHANCES THAN THE GFS.  FOR
NOW WL STICK WITH JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS OVR THE HYR TRRN...BUT
IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THERE COULD BE BETTER PCPN COVERAGE
WHICH ALSO SPREADS OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD BE
AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.  SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVES ACRS
CO AND THE NAM HAS SOME PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIER.  SUN...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SERN CO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST UPR
FORCING SUN IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME ISOLD
PCPN MAY DEVELOP OVR THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SOME MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY...WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE MON OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS. THE AIR MASS
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY ON MON SO WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.  LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE CONTINUES ON TUE AND SOME ISOLD CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVR
THE HYR TRRN.  ON WED THE UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY AS AN UPR TROF
MOVES INTO THE PACNW AND THE UPR TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE
CA COAST.  MSTR STILL LOOKS LIMITED OVR THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY
JUST SEE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. OVERALL PRECIP...IF IT
OCCURS...WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND BRIEF WITH ONLY BRIEF PDS OF
MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT SHOULD PICK UP
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 12 KNTS BY LATER AFTERNOON.

VFR EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND
KCOS. VFR WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281726
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH CURRENT DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SE PLAINS DECREASING AS
EMBEDDED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST.

TODAY...WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN VORT MAX CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NSSL WRF...HRRR AND RAP WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE PICKED UP ON FURTHER NORTH MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE
KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTS WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE
MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS TODAY BEING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. WITH COOLING ALOFT...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
30S AT THE PEAKS...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AOA 12K FT TODAY.

TONIGHT...SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE AND SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND STORMS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH AT OR BELOW NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

FRIDAY THE UPR TROF WL BE EAST OF THE STATE AND AN UPR RIDGE WL BE
BUILDING OVR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MSTR AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY OVR THE HYR
TRRN. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.  SAT AN UPR TROF OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BRING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVR THE STATE. MSTR OVR THE AREA INCREASES A LITTLE...ALTHOUGH
THE NAM SHOWS MORE MSTR AND BETTER PCPN CHANCES THAN THE GFS.  FOR
NOW WL STICK WITH JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS OVR THE HYR TRRN...BUT
IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THERE COULD BE BETTER PCPN COVERAGE
WHICH ALSO SPREADS OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD BE
AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.  SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVES ACRS
CO AND THE NAM HAS SOME PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIER.  SUN...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SERN CO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST UPR
FORCING SUN IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME ISOLD
PCPN MAY DEVELOP OVR THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SOME MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY...WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE MON OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS. THE AIR MASS
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY ON MON SO WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.  LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE CONTINUES ON TUE AND SOME ISOLD CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVR
THE HYR TRRN.  ON WED THE UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY AS AN UPR TROF
MOVES INTO THE PACNW AND THE UPR TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE
CA COAST.  MSTR STILL LOOKS LIMITED OVR THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY
JUST SEE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. OVERALL PRECIP...IF IT
OCCURS...WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND BRIEF WITH ONLY BRIEF PDS OF
MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT SHOULD PICK UP
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 12 KNTS BY LATER AFTERNOON.

VFR EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND
KCOS. VFR WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281009
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
409 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH CURRENT DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SE PLAINS DECREASING AS
EMBEDDED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST.

TODAY...WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN VORT MAX CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NSSL WRF...HRRR AND RAP WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE PICKED UP ON FURTHER NORTH MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE
KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTS WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE
MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS TODAY BEING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. WITH COOLING ALOFT...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
30S AT THE PEAKS...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AOA 12K FT TODAY.

TONIGHT...SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE AND SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND STORMS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH AT OR BELOW NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

FRIDAY THE UPR TROF WL BE EAST OF THE STATE AND AN UPR RIDGE WL BE
BUILDING OVR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MSTR AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY OVR THE HYR
TRRN. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.  SAT AN UPR TROF OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BRING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVR THE STATE. MSTR OVR THE AREA INCREASES A LITTLE...ALTHOUGH
THE NAM SHOWS MORE MSTR AND BETTER PCPN CHANCES THAN THE GFS.  FOR
NOW WL STICK WITH JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS OVR THE HYR TRRN...BUT
IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THERE COULD BE BETTER PCPN COVERAGE
WHICH ALSO SPREADS OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD BE
AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.  SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVES ACRS
CO AND THE NAM HAS SOME PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIER.  SUN...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SERN CO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST UPR
FORCING SUN IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME ISOLD
PCPN MAY DEVELOP OVR THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SOME MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY...WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE MON OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS. THE AIR MASS
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY ON MON SO WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.  LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE CONTINUES ON TUE AND SOME ISOLD CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVR
THE HYR TRRN.  ON WED THE UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY AS AN UPR TROF
MOVES INTO THE PACNW AND THE UPR TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE
CA COAST.  MSTR STILL LOOKS LIMITED OVR THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY
JUST SEE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RESULT IN AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY MORNING  WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF ALS AND COS BY 16Z. STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...THOUGH WITH MAIN PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH...WITH KEEP VCTS AT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME
WITH BEST CHANCES OF A STORM AFFECTING THE TERMINAL AT COS. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281009
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
409 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH CURRENT DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SE PLAINS DECREASING AS
EMBEDDED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST.

TODAY...WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN VORT MAX CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NSSL WRF...HRRR AND RAP WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE PICKED UP ON FURTHER NORTH MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE
KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTS WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE
MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS TODAY BEING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. WITH COOLING ALOFT...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
30S AT THE PEAKS...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AOA 12K FT TODAY.

TONIGHT...SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE AND SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND STORMS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH AT OR BELOW NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

FRIDAY THE UPR TROF WL BE EAST OF THE STATE AND AN UPR RIDGE WL BE
BUILDING OVR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MSTR AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY OVR THE HYR
TRRN. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.  SAT AN UPR TROF OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BRING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVR THE STATE. MSTR OVR THE AREA INCREASES A LITTLE...ALTHOUGH
THE NAM SHOWS MORE MSTR AND BETTER PCPN CHANCES THAN THE GFS.  FOR
NOW WL STICK WITH JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS OVR THE HYR TRRN...BUT
IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THERE COULD BE BETTER PCPN COVERAGE
WHICH ALSO SPREADS OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD BE
AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.  SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVES ACRS
CO AND THE NAM HAS SOME PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIER.  SUN...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SERN CO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST UPR
FORCING SUN IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME ISOLD
PCPN MAY DEVELOP OVR THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SOME MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY...WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE MON OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS. THE AIR MASS
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY ON MON SO WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.  LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE CONTINUES ON TUE AND SOME ISOLD CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVR
THE HYR TRRN.  ON WED THE UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY AS AN UPR TROF
MOVES INTO THE PACNW AND THE UPR TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE
CA COAST.  MSTR STILL LOOKS LIMITED OVR THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY
JUST SEE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RESULT IN AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY MORNING  WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF ALS AND COS BY 16Z. STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...THOUGH WITH MAIN PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH...WITH KEEP VCTS AT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME
WITH BEST CHANCES OF A STORM AFFECTING THE TERMINAL AT COS. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1145 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

...FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SOME
SNOW AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS...

CURRENTLY...

VERY WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW AS SEEN BY WATER VAPOR IMGY WAS SPINNING
OVER NE UTAH. A VORT LOBE FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS OVER WESTERN COLORADO
AS A LINE OF TSRA WAS ADVANCING EAST OVER THIS REGION. OVER THE NWS
PUB CWA...A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LVL LOW WAS OVER THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE PLAINS...AS SKIES WERE GENERALLY SUNNY. TEMPS
OVER THE PLAINS HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE 80S GENERALLY BELOW 5500
FEET...WITH 60S AND 70S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT THE
THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS...CAPE VALUES FROM THE SPC WERE IN THE 1000
RANGE WHILE FARTHER EAST VALUES WERE 2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR
WAS 30-35 KNTS.

AT THE SFC ACROSS THE REGION...A WEEK COOL FRONT WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN
THE VIS SAT PIX IMGY ALONG THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS/ELBERT COUNTY LINE
AND IT WAS PROGRESSING SLOWLY SWD.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

VORT LOBE OVER W CO WILL LIKELY START AFFECTING THE GREATER PIKES
PEAK REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. HRRR REALLY
DOES NOT GET THINGS GOING UNTIL AFTER 9 PM...AND I BELIEVE THIS IS
TOO LATE AS THINGS WILL LIKELY GET GOING BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHEAR AND CAPE ARE INCREASING
AND I DO EXPECT WE WILL SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO. SPC RECENTLY ISSUED AN MCD DISCUSSING THIS THREAT.

WALDO WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL MOVE AT A
GOOD CLIP TODAY...ATMOSPHERE HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ANY HEAVY
RAIN OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL CAUSE ISSUES OVER THE BURN
SCARS.

OVERALL...I BELIEVE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW HEADING OUR WAY.

TONIGHT...

UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT AS MENTIONED...BELIEVE THEY WILL
BE ISOLATED. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
LIKELY.

TOMORROW...

COOL NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION. WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD...ANTICIPATE SKIES WILL CLOUD UP RELATIVELY EARLY. ALTHOUGH
QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW...OVERALL HEAVY
RAIN THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS AOA 80F OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. 60S AND
70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL BE COOL ABOVE TREELINE
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. SNOWSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS THE STATE EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH WEAK
CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THU EVENING.
FLAT UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI LEADING TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...ALTHOUGH SOME
ISOLATED WEAK TSRA MAY FORM OVER THE MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. NEW WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING W-SW
FLOW ACROSS COLORADO SAT INTO SUN. STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
SOME ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON...THOUGH
AGAIN STORMS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED AND WEAK AS MOIST LAYER IS
FAIRLY SHALLOW. UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SUN...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NOSE OF THE UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO...STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS
BOTH SAT AND SUN WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH WARMEST
READINGS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUN.

WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MON...THOUGH AIR MASS STAYS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
SUBSIDENT UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...SUSPECT ANY CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT LATE MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. ON TUE/WED...SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THOUGH WITH FORCING STAYING RATHER
WEAK...SUSPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED BOTH
DAYS. AFTER SOME MODEST COOLING ON MON...TEMPS BEGIN TO SLOWLY
CREEP BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WERE A FEW 90S WILL REAPPEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PULLED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE KCOS AND
KPUB TERMINALS AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AT KALS OVERNIGHT...WHILE KCOS AND KPUB CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THROUGH 08-09Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EARLY
START TO -SHRA/-TSRA ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
VCNTY OF KCOS BY 16Z. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 18Z. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KCOS AND KPUB
WITH ISOLATED INSTABILITY -TSRA MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. KALS WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR
VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1145 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

...FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SOME
SNOW AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS...

CURRENTLY...

VERY WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW AS SEEN BY WATER VAPOR IMGY WAS SPINNING
OVER NE UTAH. A VORT LOBE FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS OVER WESTERN COLORADO
AS A LINE OF TSRA WAS ADVANCING EAST OVER THIS REGION. OVER THE NWS
PUB CWA...A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LVL LOW WAS OVER THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE PLAINS...AS SKIES WERE GENERALLY SUNNY. TEMPS
OVER THE PLAINS HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE 80S GENERALLY BELOW 5500
FEET...WITH 60S AND 70S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT THE
THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS...CAPE VALUES FROM THE SPC WERE IN THE 1000
RANGE WHILE FARTHER EAST VALUES WERE 2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR
WAS 30-35 KNTS.

AT THE SFC ACROSS THE REGION...A WEEK COOL FRONT WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN
THE VIS SAT PIX IMGY ALONG THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS/ELBERT COUNTY LINE
AND IT WAS PROGRESSING SLOWLY SWD.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

VORT LOBE OVER W CO WILL LIKELY START AFFECTING THE GREATER PIKES
PEAK REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. HRRR REALLY
DOES NOT GET THINGS GOING UNTIL AFTER 9 PM...AND I BELIEVE THIS IS
TOO LATE AS THINGS WILL LIKELY GET GOING BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHEAR AND CAPE ARE INCREASING
AND I DO EXPECT WE WILL SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO. SPC RECENTLY ISSUED AN MCD DISCUSSING THIS THREAT.

WALDO WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL MOVE AT A
GOOD CLIP TODAY...ATMOSPHERE HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ANY HEAVY
RAIN OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL CAUSE ISSUES OVER THE BURN
SCARS.

OVERALL...I BELIEVE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW HEADING OUR WAY.

TONIGHT...

UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT AS MENTIONED...BELIEVE THEY WILL
BE ISOLATED. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
LIKELY.

TOMORROW...

COOL NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION. WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD...ANTICIPATE SKIES WILL CLOUD UP RELATIVELY EARLY. ALTHOUGH
QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW...OVERALL HEAVY
RAIN THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS AOA 80F OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. 60S AND
70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL BE COOL ABOVE TREELINE
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. SNOWSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS THE STATE EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH WEAK
CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THU EVENING.
FLAT UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI LEADING TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...ALTHOUGH SOME
ISOLATED WEAK TSRA MAY FORM OVER THE MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. NEW WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING W-SW
FLOW ACROSS COLORADO SAT INTO SUN. STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
SOME ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON...THOUGH
AGAIN STORMS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED AND WEAK AS MOIST LAYER IS
FAIRLY SHALLOW. UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SUN...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NOSE OF THE UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO...STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS
BOTH SAT AND SUN WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH WARMEST
READINGS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUN.

WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MON...THOUGH AIR MASS STAYS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
SUBSIDENT UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...SUSPECT ANY CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT LATE MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. ON TUE/WED...SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THOUGH WITH FORCING STAYING RATHER
WEAK...SUSPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED BOTH
DAYS. AFTER SOME MODEST COOLING ON MON...TEMPS BEGIN TO SLOWLY
CREEP BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WERE A FEW 90S WILL REAPPEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PULLED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE KCOS AND
KPUB TERMINALS AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AT KALS OVERNIGHT...WHILE KCOS AND KPUB CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THROUGH 08-09Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EARLY
START TO -SHRA/-TSRA ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
VCNTY OF KCOS BY 16Z. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 18Z. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KCOS AND KPUB
WITH ISOLATED INSTABILITY -TSRA MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. KALS WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR
VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 272111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

...FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SOME
SNOW AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS...

CURRENTLY...

VERY WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW AS SEEN BY WATER VAPOR IMGY WAS SPINNING
OVER NE UTAH. A VORT LOBE FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS OVER WESTERN COLORADO
AS A LINE OF TSRA WAS ADVANCING EAST OVER THIS REGION. OVER THE NWS
PUB CWA...A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LVL LOW WAS OVER THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE PLAINS...AS SKIES WERE GENERALLY SUNNY. TEMPS
OVER THE PLAINS HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE 80S GENERALLY BELOW 5500
FEET...WITH 60S AND 70S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT THE
THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS...CAPE VALUES FROM THE SPC WERE IN THE 1000
RANGE WHILE FARTHER EAST VALUES WERE 2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR
WAS 30-35 KNTS.

AT THE SFC ACROSS THE REGION...A WEEK COOL FRONT WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN
THE VIS SAT PIX IMGY ALONG THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS/ELBERT COUNTY LINE
AND IT WAS PROGRESSING SLOWLY SWD.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

VORT LOBE OVER W CO WILL LIKELY START AFFECTING THE GREATER PIKES
PEAK REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. HRRR REALLY
DOES NOT GET THINGS GOING UNTIL AFTER 9 PM...AND I BELIEVE THIS IS
TOO LATE AS THINGS WILL LIKELY GET GOING BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHEAR AND CAPE ARE INCREASING
AND I DO EXPECT WE WILL SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO. SPC RECENTLY ISSUED AN MCD DISCUSSING THIS THREAT.

WALDO WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL MOVE AT A
GOOD CLIP TODAY...ATMOSPHERE HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ANY HEAVY
RAIN OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL CAUSE ISSUES OVER THE BURN
SCARS.

OVERALL...I BELIEVE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW HEADING OUR WAY.

TONIGHT...

UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT AS MENTIONED...BELIEVE THEY WILL
BE ISOLATED. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
LIKELY.

TOMORROW...

COOL NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION. WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD...ANTICIPATE SKIES WILL CLOUD UP RELATIVELY EARLY. ALTHOUGH
QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW...OVERALL HEAVY
RAIN THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS AOA 80F OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. 60S AND
70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL BE COOL ABOVE TREELINE
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. SNOWSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS THE STATE EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH WEAK
CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THU EVENING.
FLAT UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI LEADING TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...ALTHOUGH SOME
ISOLATED WEAK TSRA MAY FORM OVER THE MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. NEW WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING W-SW
FLOW ACROSS COLORADO SAT INTO SUN. STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
SOME ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON...THOUGH
AGAIN STORMS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED AND WEAK AS MOIST LAYER IS
FAIRLY SHALLOW. UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SUN...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NOSE OF THE UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO...STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS
BOTH SAT AND SUN WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH WARMEST
READINGS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUN.

WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MON...THOUGH AIR MASS STAYS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
SUBSIDENT UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...SUSPECT ANY CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT LATE MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. ON TUE/WED...SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THOUGH WITH FORCING STAYING RATHER
WEAK...SUSPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED BOTH
DAYS. AFTER SOME MODEST COOLING ON MON...TEMPS BEGIN TO SLOWLY
CREEP BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WERE A FEW 90S WILL REAPPEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HINTING AT SOME LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK. CIGS WILL LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING
BUT CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND A GOOD PART OF TOMORROW WITH PATCHY
ON AND OFF SHOWERS.

KPUB AND KALS WILL HAVE SOME ISOLD TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271700
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPR LOW CIRCULATION OVR WEST CENTRAL
UT AT 09Z...WITH A BAND OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WRN CO.  A BAND OF
PCPN IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CHAFFEE COUNTY AND THE NRN
SANGRES.  THIS WL STILL AFFECT FREMONT AND TELLER COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVR
THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTM SLOWLY
WORKING NORTHEASTWARD OVR NORTH CENTRAL NM...WHICH WL AFFECT THE SRN
SANGRES AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.  WITH THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WRN
AREAS WL CUT BACK ON POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SW MTS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WL LEAVE ISOLD POPS OTHER AREAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH AROUND 0.5 OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS.  THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ENE TODAY...MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF CO BY 00Z THU.  WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND UPR FORCING MOVING INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON...THE CONTDVD SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN
TODAY...SPREADING TO THE TELLER COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY AREA BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW ISOLD PCPN CHANCE ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT THE UPR LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD OVR NORTHERN CO...WITH A
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SERN CO. THE WRF SHOW PCPN ENDING OVR
THE AREA BY 06Z...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP SOME PCPN CHANCE ACRS
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE NIGHT.  WL GO WITH SCT POPS OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND ISOLD POPS FARTHER
SOUTH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL AGAIN BE A THREAT...BUT NOT
A WIDESPREAD THREAT TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  COULD SEE ONE
OR TWO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AROUND 1 INCH DIAMETER
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM THE PALMER
DVD TO KLHX AND SOUTH THROUGH ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES REMAINING
ON LOCATION OF MAIN VORT MAX. THE LATEST NAM IS THE FURTHEREST SOUTH
ACROSS SE COLORADO...WHERE AS THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS NE COLORADO. AT ANY RATE...WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH WITH
THE COOL AIR ALOFT...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL. WELL BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE HIGHER MTN PEAKS STILL POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND STILL REMAINS ON TAP
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH BRISK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF MAIN STORM TRACK
WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH BRINGING EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THAT SAID...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
HIGHER BASED AND LESS EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING WETTING RAINS...AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THINS OUT. THE WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STORM TRACKS
WITH THE EC STILL SENDING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE AS THE GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM FURTHER
NORTH. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER KCOS. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 271700
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPR LOW CIRCULATION OVR WEST CENTRAL
UT AT 09Z...WITH A BAND OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WRN CO.  A BAND OF
PCPN IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CHAFFEE COUNTY AND THE NRN
SANGRES.  THIS WL STILL AFFECT FREMONT AND TELLER COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVR
THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTM SLOWLY
WORKING NORTHEASTWARD OVR NORTH CENTRAL NM...WHICH WL AFFECT THE SRN
SANGRES AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.  WITH THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WRN
AREAS WL CUT BACK ON POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SW MTS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WL LEAVE ISOLD POPS OTHER AREAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH AROUND 0.5 OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS.  THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ENE TODAY...MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF CO BY 00Z THU.  WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND UPR FORCING MOVING INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON...THE CONTDVD SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN
TODAY...SPREADING TO THE TELLER COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY AREA BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW ISOLD PCPN CHANCE ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT THE UPR LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD OVR NORTHERN CO...WITH A
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SERN CO. THE WRF SHOW PCPN ENDING OVR
THE AREA BY 06Z...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP SOME PCPN CHANCE ACRS
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE NIGHT.  WL GO WITH SCT POPS OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND ISOLD POPS FARTHER
SOUTH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL AGAIN BE A THREAT...BUT NOT
A WIDESPREAD THREAT TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  COULD SEE ONE
OR TWO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AROUND 1 INCH DIAMETER
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM THE PALMER
DVD TO KLHX AND SOUTH THROUGH ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES REMAINING
ON LOCATION OF MAIN VORT MAX. THE LATEST NAM IS THE FURTHEREST SOUTH
ACROSS SE COLORADO...WHERE AS THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS NE COLORADO. AT ANY RATE...WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH WITH
THE COOL AIR ALOFT...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL. WELL BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE HIGHER MTN PEAKS STILL POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND STILL REMAINS ON TAP
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH BRISK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF MAIN STORM TRACK
WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH BRINGING EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THAT SAID...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
HIGHER BASED AND LESS EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING WETTING RAINS...AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THINS OUT. THE WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STORM TRACKS
WITH THE EC STILL SENDING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE AS THE GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM FURTHER
NORTH. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER KCOS. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH




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