000
FXUS65 KPUB 190947
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
347 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FAR EASTERN PLAINS...FIRE WEATHER OVER
MTNS/VALLEYS...
CURRENTLY...
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HAS BEEN TRACKING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. STORM HAS TRACKED IN REMOTE
AREAS SO NO REPORTS...BUT ALGORITHMS HAVE BEEN INDICATING 2" HAIL
WITH IT AT TIMES...AND MODEST ROTATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ON AND OFF
WITH THE CELL.
OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS...LLVL MSTR HAS REMAINED IN PLACE WITH
SFC SE WINDS OVER THE REGION. SKIES HAVE CLOUDED UP OVER A GOOD PART
OF THE PLAINS WITH CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS...THE DRY AIR IS NOTED AS DWPTS ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS.
TODAY...
SIMULATIONS SHOW THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE COLORADO SIDE OF THE
CO/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
ALOFT...CONVG ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO STORMS TO
FORM. LATEST HRRR WAS HINTING AT THIS. SPC ALSO HAS FAR E PLAINS IN
SLIGHT RISK. CAPE IS FCST TO BE SIGNIFICANT...3000 J/KG...AND SHEAR
WILL BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...SO IF ANY STORM GOES UP IT WILL
ROTATE AND IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME BIG HAIL. LCLS
WILL BE HIGH SO TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW.
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR GIVEN THE LOW DWPTS AND GUSTY SW
WINDS. QUITE A FEW AREAS ON THE PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED SOME BENEFICIAL
RAIN SO THE THREAT IS LESS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER IT WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY TODAY AND ANY AREAS WHICH HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
SIGNIF RAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER TODAY THAN THE YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 OVER THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY. EXPECT 70S MTNS WITH
80S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPS AROUND 90F WILL OCCUR IN MOST OF EL PASO
COUNTY.
TONIGHT...
EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SUPERCELL OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY. RH RECOVERY WILL BE VERY POOR
OVER THE MTNS...VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
...HIGH FIRE DANGER...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG DRY PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-25. ALREADY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OUT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE
ONE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WIDESPREAD
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT. IN ADDITION
THE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF I-25 AS WELL...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE HOWEVER FUEL STATUS AND RECENT HEAVY RAINS PRECLUDE ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. FINE FUELS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AND MAY CURE QUICKLY WITH PERSISTENT DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS LEADING TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EJECTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MANAGE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE WARMING BACK UP FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN AND HELP REDUCE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN A BIT STRONGER BEFORE WEAKENING ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATING
THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY TO
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
MORNING LOW CIGS WILL AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. KALS WILL BE VFR
NEXT 24H.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 190525
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1125 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325 AND TO
REFLECT CURRENT AND FORECAST SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
UPDATED TO REMOVE A PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325 AND
TO REFLECT CURRENT PCPN TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO FIRE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT STILL LOOKS HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY FIRING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
(SOUTHERN SANGRES) AS SOUTHERN JET STREAM APPROACHES THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN/CEN CO
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SFC BASED HEATING...EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...INTERACTING WITH HIGH SFC DEW POINTS (GENERALLY IN THE
50S)...AND DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF AROUND 40-50 KTS. CAPE VALUES WILL
PROBABLY RANGE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG...PRODUCING A HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LCLS ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WHERE
SFC WINDS PULL MORE EASTERLY UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
HRRR (11Z DUE TO SYSTEM UPGRADES AND LACK OF UPDATES) AND 4KM NSSL
WRF...ALL PEG NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH THEN DROPS SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON THE BLACK FOREST BURN SCAR...AS WELL AS THE
WALDO...THOUGH MODELS SEEM TO PEG BLACK FOREST WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY. BEST THREAT FOR THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM THE 3 PM TO
5 PM TIME FRAME.
CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING
WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WINDING DOWN AFTER 9 PM...AND THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
CONCERNS SHIFT TOWARDS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS ON TARGET.
QUICK CALL AROUND TO LOCAL LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES INDICATES THAT
FUELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...PUEBLO...HUERFANO...AND
WESTERN LAS ANIMAS WILL CARRY FIRE...SO HAVE INCLUDED THOSE ZONES
INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
MEANWHILE...NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED THE DRY LINE WESTWARD AND
KEEPS IT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE
A BIT OF CAPE OUT THAT WAY WITH AROUND 2000+J/KG AND NAM12
INDICATING 0-6KM SHEARS AROUND 40-50 KTS...SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD A
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP. THREAT LOOKS PRETTY ISOLATED AT THIS POINT
AS TRIGGER MAY BE MISSING...BUT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO LOSE THE CAP
TOWARDS AFTERNOON...SO CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO POP A THUNDERSTORM. -KT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A BROAD...DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CONSEQUENT DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A RIBBON OF HIGH CAPE
VALUES ACROSS OUR KANSAS BORDER COUNTIES EARLY EVENING...SO
REINTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST US WILL DRIFT
EAST. SWIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...PRODUCING DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST AND FUELS CRITICAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES
TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND EL PASO
COUNTY FOR THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY NEED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
DURING FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER 100S EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR WILL PREVENT
AND MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND MOVE THEM NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. WE HAVE LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ220>230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28
000
FXUS65 KPUB 190305
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
905 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325 AND TO
REFLECT CURRENT AND FORECAST SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
UPDATED TO REMOVE A PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325 AND
TO REFLECT CURRENT PCPN TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO FIRE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT STILL LOOKS HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY FIRING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
(SOUTHERN SANGRES) AS SOUTHERN JET STREAM APPROACHES THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN/CEN CO
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SFC BASED HEATING...EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...INTERACTING WITH HIGH SFC DEW POINTS (GENERALLY IN THE
50S)...AND DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF AROUND 40-50 KTS. CAPE VALUES WILL
PROBABLY RANGE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG...PRODUCING A HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LCLS ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WHERE
SFC WINDS PULL MORE EASTERLY UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
HRRR (11Z DUE TO SYSTEM UPGRADES AND LACK OF UPDATES) AND 4KM NSSL
WRF...ALL PEG NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH THEN DROPS SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON THE BLACK FOREST BURN SCAR...AS WELL AS THE
WALDO...THOUGH MODELS SEEM TO PEG BLACK FOREST WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY. BEST THREAT FOR THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM THE 3 PM TO
5 PM TIME FRAME.
CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING
WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WINDING DOWN AFTER 9 PM...AND THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
CONCERNS SHIFT TOWARDS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS ON TARGET.
QUICK CALL AROUND TO LOCAL LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES INDICATES THAT
FUELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...PUEBLO...HUERFANO...AND
WESTERN LAS ANIMAS WILL CARRY FIRE...SO HAVE INCLUDED THOSE ZONES
INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
MEANWHILE...NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED THE DRY LINE WESTWARD AND
KEEPS IT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE
A BIT OF CAPE OUT THAT WAY WITH AROUND 2000+J/KG AND NAM12
INDICATING 0-6KM SHEARS AROUND 40-50 KTS...SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD A
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP. THREAT LOOKS PRETTY ISOLATED AT THIS POINT
AS TRIGGER MAY BE MISSING...BUT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO LOSE THE CAP
TOWARDS AFTERNOON...SO CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO POP A THUNDERSTORM. -KT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A BROAD...DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CONSEQUENT DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A RIBBON OF HIGH CAPE
VALUES ACROSS OUR KANSAS BORDER COUNTIES EARLY EVENING...SO
REINTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST US WILL DRIFT
EAST. SWIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...PRODUCING DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST AND FUELS CRITICAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES
TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND EL PASO
COUNTY FOR THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY NEED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
DURING FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER 100S EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR WILL PREVENT
AND MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND MOVE THEM NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. WE HAVE LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS/VIS. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH 6Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE..KALS COULD SEE A -TSRA
THROUGH 23Z WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ220>230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT
000
FXUS65 KPUB 190140
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
740 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
UPDATED TO REMOVE A PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325 AND
TO REFLECT CURRENT PCPN TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO FIRE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT STILL LOOKS HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY FIRING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
(SOUTHERN SANGRES) AS SOUTHERN JET STREAM APPROACHES THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN/CEN CO
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SFC BASED HEATING...EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...INTERACTING WITH HIGH SFC DEW POINTS (GENERALLY IN THE
50S)...AND DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF AROUND 40-50 KTS. CAPE VALUES WILL
PROBABLY RANGE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG...PRODUCING A HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LCLS ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WHERE
SFC WINDS PULL MORE EASTERLY UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
HRRR (11Z DUE TO SYSTEM UPGRADES AND LACK OF UPDATES) AND 4KM NSSL
WRF...ALL PEG NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH THEN DROPS SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON THE BLACK FOREST BURN SCAR...AS WELL AS THE
WALDO...THOUGH MODELS SEEM TO PEG BLACK FOREST WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY. BEST THREAT FOR THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM THE 3 PM TO
5 PM TIME FRAME.
CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING
WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WINDING DOWN AFTER 9 PM...AND THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
CONCERNS SHIFT TOWARDS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS ON TARGET.
QUICK CALL AROUND TO LOCAL LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES INDICATES THAT
FUELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...PUEBLO...HUERFANO...AND
WESTERN LAS ANIMAS WILL CARRY FIRE...SO HAVE INCLUDED THOSE ZONES
INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
MEANWHILE...NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED THE DRY LINE WESTWARD AND
KEEPS IT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE
A BIT OF CAPE OUT THAT WAY WITH AROUND 2000+J/KG AND NAM12
INDICATING 0-6KM SHEARS AROUND 40-50 KTS...SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD A
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP. THREAT LOOKS PRETTY ISOLATED AT THIS POINT
AS TRIGGER MAY BE MISSING...BUT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO LOSE THE CAP
TOWARDS AFTERNOON...SO CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO POP A THUNDERSTORM. -KT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A BROAD...DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CONSEQUENT DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A RIBBON OF HIGH CAPE
VALUES ACROSS OUR KANSAS BORDER COUNTIES EARLY EVENING...SO
REINTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST US WILL DRIFT
EAST. SWIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...PRODUCING DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST AND FUELS CRITICAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES
TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND EL PASO
COUNTY FOR THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY NEED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
DURING FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER 100S EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR WILL PREVENT
AND MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND MOVE THEM NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. WE HAVE LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS/VIS. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH 6Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE..KALS COULD SEE A -TSRA
THROUGH 23Z WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ220>230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT
000
FXUS65 KPUB 182057
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
257 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO FIRE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT STILL LOOKS HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY FIRING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
(SOUTHERN SANGRES) AS SOUTHERN JET STREAM APPROACHES THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN/CEN CO
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SFC BASED HEATING...EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...INTERACTING WITH HIGH SFC DEW POINTS (GENERALLY IN THE
50S)...AND DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF AROUND 40-50 KTS. CAPE VALUES WILL
PROBABLY RANGE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG...PRODUCING A HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LCLS ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WHERE
SFC WINDS PULL MORE EASTERLY UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
HRRR (11Z DUE TO SYSTEM UPGRADES AND LACK OF UPDATES) AND 4KM NSSL
WRF...ALL PEG NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH THEN DROPS SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON THE BLACK FOREST BURN SCAR...AS WELL AS THE
WALDO...THOUGH MODELS SEEM TO PEG BLACK FOREST WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY. BEST THREAT FOR THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM THE 3 PM TO
5 PM TIME FRAME.
CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING
WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WINDING DOWN AFTER 9 PM...AND THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
CONCERNS SHIFT TOWARDS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS ON TARGET.
QUICK CALL AROUND TO LOCAL LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES INDICATES THAT
FUELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...PUEBLO...HUERFANO...AND
WESTERN LAS ANIMAS WILL CARRY FIRE...SO HAVE INCLUDED THOSE ZONES
INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
MEANWHILE...NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED THE DRY LINE WESTWARD AND
KEEPS IT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE
A BIT OF CAPE OUT THAT WAY WITH AROUND 2000+J/KG AND NAM12
INDICATING 0-6KM SHEARS AROUND 40-50 KTS...SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD A
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP. THREAT LOOKS PRETTY ISOLATED AT THIS POINT
AS TRIGGER MAY BE MISSING...BUT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO LOSE THE CAP
TOWARDS AFTERNOON...SO CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO POP A THUNDERSTORM. -KT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A BROAD...DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CONSEQUENT DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A RIBBON OF HIGH CAPE
VALUES ACROSS OUR KANSAS BORDER COUNTIES EARLY EVENING...SO
REINTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST US WILL DRIFT
EAST. SWIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...PRODUCING DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST AND FUELS CRITICAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES
TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND EL PASO
COUNTY FOR THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY NEED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
DURING FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER 100S EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR WILL PREVENT
AND MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND MOVE THEM NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. WE HAVE LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS/VIS. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH 6Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE..KALS COULD SEE A -TSRA
THROUGH 23Z WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ220>230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT
000
FXUS65 KPUB 181744
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1144 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY...
CURRENTLY...
AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER WAS CLEARLY SEEN IS RADAR
IMAGERY SPINNING JUST NE OF THE FAR NE CO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
(3 AM). CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WITH THIS WAS DROPPING SWD ACROSS EC CO.
OTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WERE NOTED OVER NE NM. A FE LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE NOTED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SE PLAINS. DWPTS OVER THE
REGION WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.
TODAY...
I SEE PRETTY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE TODAY INDICATING THAT WE
MAY SEE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE ROTATING STORM FORM ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
IN THE GENERAL AREA OF DOUGLAS/ELBERT/EL PASO COUNTY AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE EL PASO COUNTY...INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND THEN
THE GREATER LA JUNTA REGION LATER IN THE EVENING. THE
NAM...GFS...AND RAP ALL SHOW THIS SAME GENERAL SIGNAL. ALTHOUGH
LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SIMULATIONS
SHOW LOCAL BACKING OF THE LLVL WINDS OVER THE PALMER DVD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOCAL BACKING OF THE WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE
LLVL SHEAR. RATHER STRONG SE SFC INFLOW IS PRGD (AND MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR DAYS) SO EXPECT STORM WILL BE INFLOW-DOMINANT
FOR A GOOD PART OF ITS LIFE. THE HODOGRAPH IS CURVED BUT THE OVERALL
MAGNITUDE IS NOT STRONG. CAPE IS PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 1000-1500
J/KG AND TEMPS AT 500 ARE AROUND -9 TO -10C.
WITH THAT SAID...THE HI-RES DATA (SPC SSEO...NSSL WRF...LOCAL
WRF...IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THEY DO SHOW A WEAK
ROTATING STORM THIS REGION BUT MOVE IT OFF QUICKLY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR...PAST HISTORY THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS DURING PRIME HEATING...THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER EC CO...AND THE FACT
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...I
DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER THE REGION. I HAVE
MENTIONED SEVERE IN THE GRIDDS AND SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR
TODAY. BASED ON WHAT I HAVE SEEN...THE MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE SHOULD
BE IN THE N EL PASO COUNTY REGION...AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW SUPERCELL TORNADO
THREAT THIS REGION. I BELIEVE THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE A WIND THREAT
AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREATER
LA JUNTA REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE WALDO...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THE DWPTS...AND
THE FACT THAT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL BE EXPOSED ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE BLACK FOREST FIRE MOP-UP
OPERATIONS. LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING...AND THE VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TORNADO...COULD AFFECT
THESE FOLKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL PUT THE ROCKIES UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
LEADING TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG MIXING WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH
DROPPING HUMIDITY VALUES TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ARE LIKELY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25
CORRIDOR. HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CRITERIA ARE
BEING MET ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT FUELS HAVE BEEN LISTED AS NOT
CRITICAL AND AREAS OUT EAST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THESE AREAS. ALSO REMOVED
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE DRYLINE MIXING
WELL OUT INTO KANSAS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS COLORADO.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO. CONTINUED VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST AND FUELS MOST
CRITICAL. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS...SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND EL PASO COUNTY FOR THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY NEED
TO DO THE SAME FOR FRIDAY IN THE FUTURE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS. NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW NORTHWARD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND LIFT THEM NORTHEAST
INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. HAVE LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO LATEST TAFS. KCOS HAS THE BIGGEST THREAT
OF BEING HIT BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SO ADDED GS TO THE TAF.
KPUB HAS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITY OF BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY TS...BUT HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING AFFECTED BY GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP INTO THE TAF TO
REFLECT THAT POTENTIAL. KALS WILL SEE MORE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO MISS THE TERMINAL.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL...THOUGH WITH
LESS OF A THREAT WILL MONITOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ220>227.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
000
FXUS65 KPUB 181017
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
417 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY...
CURRENTLY...
AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER WAS CLEARLY SEEN IS RADAR
IMAGERY SPINNING JUST NE OF THE FAR NE CO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
(3 AM). CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WITH THIS WAS DROPPING SWD ACROSS EC CO.
OTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WERE NOTED OVER NE NM. A FE LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE NOTED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SE PLAINS. DWPTS OVER THE
REGION WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.
TODAY...
I SEE PRETTY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE TODAY INDICATING THAT WE
MAY SEE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE ROTATING STORM FORM ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
IN THE GENERAL AREA OF DOUGLAS/ELBERT/EL PASO COUNTY AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE EL PASO COUNTY...INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND THEN
THE GREATER LA JUNTA REGION LATER IN THE EVENING. THE
NAM...GFS...AND RAP ALL SHOW THIS SAME GENERAL SIGNAL. ALTHOUGH
LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SIMULATIONS
SHOW LOCAL BACKING OF THE LLVL WINDS OVER THE PALMER DVD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOCAL BACKING OF THE WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE
LLVL SHEAR. RATHER STRONG SE SFC INFLOW IS PRGD (AND MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR DAYS) SO EXPECT STORM WILL BE INFLOW-DOMINANT
FOR A GOOD PART OF ITS LIFE. THE HODOGRAPH IS CURVED BUT THE OVERALL
MAGNITUDE IS NOT STRONG. CAPE IS PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 1000-1500
J/KG AND TEMPS AT 500 ARE AROUND -9 TO -10C.
WITH THAT SAID...THE HI-RES DATA (SPC SSEO...NSSL WRF...LOCAL
WRF...IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THEY DO SHOW A WEAK
ROTATING STORM THIS REGION BUT MOVE IT OFF QUICKLY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR...PAST HISTORY THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS DURING PRIME HEATING...THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER EC CO...AND THE FACT
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...I
DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER THE REGION. I HAVE
MENTIONED SEVERE IN THE GRIDDS AND SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR
TODAY. BASED ON WHAT I HAVE SEEN...THE MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE SHOULD
BE IN THE N EL PASO COUNTY REGION...AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW SUPERCELL TORNADO
THREAT THIS REGION. I BELIEVE THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE A WIND THREAT
AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREATER
LA JUNTA REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE WALDO...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THE DWPTS...AND
THE FACT THAT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL BE EXPOSED ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE BLACK FOREST FIRE MOP-UP
OPERATIONS. LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING...AND THE VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TORNADO...COULD AFFECT
THESE FOLKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL PUT THE ROCKIES UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
LEADING TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG MIXING WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH
DROPPING HUMIDITY VALUES TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ARE LIKELY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25
CORRIDOR. HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CRITERIA ARE
BEING MET ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT FUELS HAVE BEEN LISTED AS NOT
CRITICAL AND AREAS OUT EAST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THESE AREAS. ALSO REMOVED
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE DRYLINE MIXING
WELL OUT INTO KANSAS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS COLORADO.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO. CONTINUED VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST AND FUELS MOST
CRITICAL. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS...SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND EL PASO COUNTY FOR THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY NEED
TO DO THE SAME FOR FRIDAY IN THE FUTURE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS. NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW NORTHWARD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND LIFT THEM NORTHEAST
INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. HAVE LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
KCOS. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE A THREAT. STRONG OUTFLOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN AT SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
KCOS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORMS/OUTFLOW AFFECT THE TAF SITE.
VFR AT KCOS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KPUB WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO CERTAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD.
KALS SHOULD BE VFR ALL DAY. I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCAL HIGH BASED
CONVECTION CAUSING GUST WINDS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ220>227.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 180521
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
UPDATED TO CANCEL SVR WATCH 322 WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SE PLAINS ATTM. ALSO UPDATED POPS FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HELPING TO FIRE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ATTM. RADAR ALSO INDICATING LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE WALDO BURN SCAR BECOMING LESS INTENSE
OVER THE PAST FEW SCANS. GAGES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF OF THE SCAR
INDICATING BETWEEN 0.02 AND 0.14 INCHES OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH
12 HOUR TOTALS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SCAR BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.47
INCHES. FURTHER EAST...HAVE SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS WITH LAA
AND LHX ASOS REPORTING 1.83 AND 1.51 INCHES RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ARE
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS COULD BE
SUPPORTED BY A STRING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NRN CO. SFC
DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF INTO THE
30S...WITH EASTERLY WINDS KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH CAPES
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS SPC
MESO ANALYSIS IS SHOWING DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1400
J/KG...FAVORING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LCL`S LOOK A LITTLE HIGH
IN MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CO
OVERNIGHT...DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD. KIOWA COUNTY GETS CLIPPED
BY ONE ACCORDING TO NAM12...WHEREAS GFS KEEPS MAJORITY OF QPF ACROSS
SE CO THROUGH 06Z AS SE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP...THEN PUSHES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH 12Z WED. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ADVECT HIGHER
DEW POINTS BACK WESTWARD FOR TUESDAY LEADING TO GREATER CAPE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS.
PROBLEM IS MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A BIT OF A CAP...PARTICULARLY
FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT HIGH RES
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW IT BREAKING BY LATE MORNING. CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS OF AROUND 40-50 KTS SHOULD
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH LCLS A LITTLE LOWER THERE WILL BE A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL WINDS PULL AROUND MORE TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL ON THE
WALDO BURN SCAR. HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE GENERALLY UNDER
FLASH FLOOD CRITERIA (.50) SO THINK IT MIGHT BE ANOTHER HIT OR MISS
PROPOSITION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT HIGH RES MODELS
AND RE-EXAMINE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE GENERALLY
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MUCH LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
PROMINENT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROF DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN PLACE ONLY FOR KS/CO BORDER AREAS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...EL PASO COUNTY...AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. FUELS IN THE
MOUNTAINS REMAIN CRITICAL. ELSEWHERE...THE FINE FUELS ON THE PLAINS
MAY NOT BE CRITICAL DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE SPOTTY CONVECTION...THE
INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE FUELS INFORMATION
BEFORE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING. THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WITH CONTINUED HOT...DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE WINDS DON`T LOOK AS STRONG THURSDAY AS
WEDNESDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. STARK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. HOWEVER
AFTER 20Z ON TUESDAY TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL SITES
WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BEING POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>227.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...28
000
FXUS65 KPUB 180306 CCA
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
904 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
UPDATED TO CANCEL SVR WATCH 322 WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SE PLAINS ATTM. ALSO UPDATED POPS FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HELPING TO FIRE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ATTM. RADAR ALSO INDICATING LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE WALDO BURN SCAR BECOMING LESS INTENSE
OVER THE PAST FEW SCANS. GAGES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF OF THE SCAR
INDICATING BETWEEN 0.02 AND 0.14 INCHES OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH
12 HOUR TOTALS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SCAR BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.47
INCHES. FURTHER EAST...HAVE SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS WITH LAA
AND LHX ASOS REPORTING 1.83 AND 1.51 INCHES RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ARE
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS COULD BE
SUPPORTED BY A STRING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NRN CO. SFC
DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF INTO THE
30S...WITH EASTERLY WINDS KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH CAPES
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS SPC
MESO ANALYSIS IS SHOWING DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1400
J/KG...FAVORING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LCL`S LOOK A LITTLE HIGH
IN MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CO
OVERNIGHT...DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD. KIOWA COUNTY GETS CLIPPED
BY ONE ACCORDING TO NAM12...WHEREAS GFS KEEPS MAJORITY OF QPF ACROSS
SE CO THROUGH 06Z AS SE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP...THEN PUSHES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH 12Z WED. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ADVECT HIGHER
DEW POINTS BACK WESTWARD FOR TUESDAY LEADING TO GREATER CAPE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS.
PROBLEM IS MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A BIT OF A CAP...PARTICULARLY
FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT HIGH RES
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW IT BREAKING BY LATE MORNING. CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS OF AROUND 40-50 KTS SHOULD
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH LCLS A LITTLE LOWER THERE WILL BE A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL WINDS PULL AROUND MORE TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL ON THE
WALDO BURN SCAR. HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE GENERALLY UNDER
FLASH FLOOD CRITERIA (.50) SO THINK IT MIGHT BE ANOTHER HIT OR MISS
PROPOSITION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT HIGH RES MODELS
AND RE-EXAMINE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE GENERALLY
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MUCH LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
PROMINENT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROF DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN PLACE ONLY FOR KS/CO BORDER AREAS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...EL PASO COUNTY...AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. FUELS IN THE
MOUNTAINS REMAIN CRITICAL. ELSEWHERE...THE FINE FUELS ON THE PLAINS
MAY NOT BE CRITICAL DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE SPOTTY CONVECTION...THE
INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE FUELS INFORMATION
BEFORE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING. THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WITH CONTINUED HOT...DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE WINDS DON`T LOOK AS STRONG THURSDAY AS
WEDNESDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. STARK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
KCOS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR TSRA TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITE. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH CIGS IN THE VFR TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MVFR CATEGORY.
KPUB WILL ALSO SEE A THREAT FOR TSRA IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME.
AGAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH CIGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
MORE HIT OR MISS POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KALS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING...THUS WILL ONLY CARRY A VCTS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 09Z...AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES. THESE CIGS SHOULD BREAK TOWARDS LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>227.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...KT
000
FXUS65 KPUB 180305 CCA
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
904 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
UPDATED TO CANCEL SVR WATCH 322 WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SE PLAINS ATTM. ALSO UPDATED POPS FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HELPING TO FIRE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ATTM. RADAR ALSO INDICATING LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE WALDO BURN SCAR BECOMING LESS INTENSE
OVER THE PAST FEW SCANS. GAGES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF OF THE SCAR
INDICATING BETWEEN 0.02 AND 0.14 INCHES OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH
12 HOUR TOTALS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SCAR BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.47
INCHES. FURTHER EAST...HAVE SINCE SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS WITH LAA
AND LHX ASOS REPORTING 1.83 AND 1.51 INCHES RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ARE
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS COULD BE
SUPPORTED BY A STRING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NRN CO. SFC
DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF INTO THE
30S...WITH EASTERLY WINDS KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH CAPES
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS SPC
MESO ANALYSIS IS SHOWING DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1400
J/KG...FAVORING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LCL`S LOOK A LITTLE HIGH
IN MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CO
OVERNIGHT...DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD. KIOWA COUNTY GETS CLIPPED
BY ONE ACCORDING TO NAM12...WHEREAS GFS KEEPS MAJORITY OF QPF ACROSS
SE CO THROUGH 06Z AS SE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP...THEN PUSHES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH 12Z WED. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ADVECT HIGHER
DEW POINTS BACK WESTWARD FOR TUESDAY LEADING TO GREATER CAPE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS.
PROBLEM IS MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A BIT OF A CAP...PARTICULARLY
FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT HIGH RES
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW IT BREAKING BY LATE MORNING. CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS OF AROUND 40-50 KTS SHOULD
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH LCLS A LITTLE LOWER THERE WILL BE A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL WINDS PULL AROUND MORE TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL ON THE
WALDO BURN SCAR. HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE GENERALLY UNDER
FLASH FLOOD CRITERIA (.50) SO THINK IT MIGHT BE ANOTHER HIT OR MISS
PROPOSITION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT HIGH RES MODELS
AND RE-EXAMINE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE GENERALLY
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MUCH LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
PROMINENT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROF DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN PLACE ONLY FOR KS/CO BORDER AREAS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...EL PASO COUNTY...AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. FUELS IN THE
MOUNTAINS REMAIN CRITICAL. ELSEWHERE...THE FINE FUELS ON THE PLAINS
MAY NOT BE CRITICAL DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE SPOTTY CONVECTION...THE
INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE FUELS INFORMATION
BEFORE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING. THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WITH CONTINUED HOT...DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE WINDS DON`T LOOK AS STRONG THURSDAY AS
WEDNESDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. STARK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
KCOS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR TSRA TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITE. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH CIGS IN THE VFR TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MVFR CATEGORY.
KPUB WILL ALSO SEE A THREAT FOR TSRA IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME.
AGAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH CIGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
MORE HIT OR MISS POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KALS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING...THUS WILL ONLY CARRY A VCTS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 09Z...AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES. THESE CIGS SHOULD BREAK TOWARDS LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>227.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...KT
000
FXUS65 KPUB 180303
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
903 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
UPDATED TO CANCEL SVR WATCH 322 WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SE PLAINS ATTM. ALSO UPDATED POPS FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HELPING TO FIRE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ATTM. RADAR ALSO INDICATING LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE WALDO BURN SCAR BECOMING LESS INTENSE
OVER THE PAST FEW SCANS. GAGES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF OF THE SCAR
INDICATING BETWEEN 0.02 AND 0.14 INCHES OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH
12 HOUR TOTALS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SCAR BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.47
INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ARE
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS COULD BE
SUPPORTED BY A STRING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NRN CO. SFC
DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF INTO THE
30S...WITH EASTERLY WINDS KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH CAPES
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS SPC
MESO ANALYSIS IS SHOWING DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1400
J/KG...FAVORING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LCL`S LOOK A LITTLE HIGH
IN MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CO
OVERNIGHT...DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD. KIOWA COUNTY GETS CLIPPED
BY ONE ACCORDING TO NAM12...WHEREAS GFS KEEPS MAJORITY OF QPF ACROSS
SE CO THROUGH 06Z AS SE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP...THEN PUSHES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH 12Z WED. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ADVECT HIGHER
DEW POINTS BACK WESTWARD FOR TUESDAY LEADING TO GREATER CAPE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS.
PROBLEM IS MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A BIT OF A CAP...PARTICULARLY
FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT HIGH RES
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW IT BREAKING BY LATE MORNING. CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS OF AROUND 40-50 KTS SHOULD
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH LCLS A LITTLE LOWER THERE WILL BE A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL WINDS PULL AROUND MORE TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL ON THE
WALDO BURN SCAR. HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE GENERALLY UNDER
FLASH FLOOD CRITERIA (.50) SO THINK IT MIGHT BE ANOTHER HIT OR MISS
PROPOSITION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT HIGH RES MODELS
AND RE-EXAMINE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE GENERALLY
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MUCH LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
PROMINENT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROF DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN PLACE ONLY FOR KS/CO BORDER AREAS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...EL PASO COUNTY...AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. FUELS IN THE
MOUNTAINS REMAIN CRITICAL. ELSEWHERE...THE FINE FUELS ON THE PLAINS
MAY NOT BE CRITICAL DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE SPOTTY CONVECTION...THE
INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE FUELS INFORMATION
BEFORE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING. THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WITH CONTINUED HOT...DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE WINDS DON`T LOOK AS STRONG THURSDAY AS
WEDNESDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. STARK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
KCOS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR TSRA TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITE. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH CIGS IN THE VFR TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MVFR CATEGORY.
KPUB WILL ALSO SEE A THREAT FOR TSRA IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME.
AGAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH CIGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
MORE HIT OR MISS POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KALS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING...THUS WILL ONLY CARRY A VCTS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 09Z...AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES. THESE CIGS SHOULD BREAK TOWARDS LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>227.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...KT
000
FXUS65 KPUB 172116
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
316 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ARE
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS COULD BE
SUPPORTED BY A STRING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NRN CO. SFC
DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF INTO THE
30S...WITH EASTERLY WINDS KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH CAPES
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS SPC
MESO ANALYSIS IS SHOWING DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1400
J/KG...FAVORING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LCL`S LOOK A LITTLE HIGH
IN MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CO
OVERNIGHT...DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD. KIOWA COUNTY GETS CLIPPED
BY ONE ACCORDING TO NAM12...WHEREAS GFS KEEPS MAJORITY OF QPF ACROSS
SE CO THROUGH 06Z AS SE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP...THEN PUSHES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH 12Z WED. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ADVECT HIGHER
DEW POINTS BACK WESTWARD FOR TUESDAY LEADING TO GREATER CAPE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS.
PROBLEM IS MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A BIT OF A CAP...PARTICULARLY
FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT HIGH RES
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW IT BREAKING BY LATE MORNING. CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS OF AROUND 40-50 KTS SHOULD
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH LCLS A LITTLE LOWER THERE WILL BE A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL WINDS PULL AROUND MORE TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL ON THE
WALDO BURN SCAR. HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE GENERALLY UNDER
FLASH FLOOD CRITERIA (.50) SO THINK IT MIGHT BE ANOTHER HIT OR MISS
PROPOSITION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT HIGH RES MODELS
AND RE-EXAMINE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE GENERALLY
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MUCH LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
PROMINENT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROF DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN PLACE ONLY FOR KS/CO BORDER AREAS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...EL PASO COUNTY...AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. FUELS IN THE
MOUNTAINS REMAIN CRITICAL. ELSEWHERE...THE FINE FUELS ON THE PLAINS
MAY NOT BE CRITICAL DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE SPOTTY CONVECTION...THE
INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE FUELS INFORMATION
BEFORE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING. THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WITH CONTINUED HOT...DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE WINDS DON`T LOOK AS STRONG THURSDAY AS
WEDNESDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. STARK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
KCOS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR TSRA TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITE. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH CIGS IN THE VFR TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MVFR CATEGORY.
KPUB WILL ALSO SEE A THREAT FOR TSRA IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME.
AGAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH CIGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
MORE HIT OR MISS POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KALS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING...THUS WILL ONLY CARRY A VCTS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 09Z...AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES. THESE CIGS SHOULD BREAK TOWARDS LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...KT
000
FXUS65 KPUB 171735
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
CURRENTLY...RADAR HAS HAD WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR FROM GUNNISON TO CANON CITY EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST
SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY ONLY PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT DO NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A QUICK SHOWER THROUGH SUNRISE OVER THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS. DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED TO
MID 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...TO NEAR 60 NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN KANSAS.
THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIG DISCREPANCY THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS AND THE COARSER SOLUTIONS. THE NAM AND GFS
ARE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING
AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE VARIOUS HIGH-RES WRF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION BUT ARE REALLY SPARSE ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KANSAS BORDER AREA. FOR NOW
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE TWO PROJECTIONS...WITH HIGHER MOUNTAIN
POPS...SCATTERED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND HIGHER POPS OUT EAST
NEAR WHERE THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE SHEAR WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OUT EAST ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION...THERE COULD VERY WELL BE AN
MCS DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING THAT WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY COME TO AN END FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. THINK THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH THE MCS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
UNDER THE MCS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY START OUT CLOUDY OVER THE PLAINS AS A (LIKELY)
MCS OVER WESTERN KS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY PUSH QUITE A BIT OF
LLVL MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE MTNS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE
MORNING WE SHOULD START TO BREAK UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE AND ABOUT 40 KNTS OF DEEP
SHEAR OVER THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL BEST
KINEMATICS APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF US-50 ON THIS DAY SO THE
STRONGEST ROTATING STORMS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE RATON MESA
REGION. WITH LCLS LIKELY QUITE LOW ON THIS DAY...THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THIS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY BACK TO THE MTNS...SO
SEVERE WEATHER ON THIS DAY WILL AFFECT BOTH THE FAR E PLAINS AND THE
I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THE SUBTROPICAL JET THAT WE DISCUSSED YDAY
ATTM IS STILL PRGD TO BE NOSING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A THREAT ON THIS DAY
(TUESDAY)...MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE
PLAINS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT WE COULD HAVE SOME RAIN ON
THE WALDO ...AND FLASH FLOODING CANT BE RULED OUT.
IN THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH LITTLE RAIN. CG STRIKES WILL POSE A THREAT OF NEW FIRE STARTS
IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY SW MTNS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE
WIND GRIDDS AND RH FIELDS...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVER
THE MTNS AND VALLEYS. OVER THE PLAINS...STOUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE OUT EAST
BUT IT WILL ALSO LIKELY BE STRONGLY CAPPED. IF A STORM SHOULD
DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY ROTATE...BUT WITH SUCH A STOUT CAP THE ODDS
OF INITIATION IS RATHER LOW ATTM.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY REGION-WIDE.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS (15-25
MPH)...BUT THE MTNS WILL LIKELY BE WINDIER. IT WILL BE HOT WITH 100S
ON THE LOWER PLAINS.
SATURDAY...A BIT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE A BIT LESS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTION OVER
FAR SE CO. RED FLAG CONDITIONS...IF THEY OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WILL
LIKELY BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY...WE MAY SEE A COOL FRONT COME DOWN THE PLAINS AND THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. THE MTNS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DRY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 18Z AND 21Z
RESPECTIVELY. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THREAT AT TERMINALS...ALONG WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL
AND LIGHTNING. KALS WILL SEE MUCH LESS THREAT FOR -TSRA AT THE
TERMINAL BUT ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE
MOUNTAINS COULD STILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
VCTS IN THE KALS TERMINAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD LOW CLOUDS INTO THE KCOS AND KPUB
TERMINAL BY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS TO EVEN IFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR
KCOS AFTER 11-12Z. KALS WILL REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
000
FXUS65 KPUB 171012
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
412 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
CURRENTLY...RADAR HAS HAD WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR FROM GUNNISON TO CANON CITY EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST
SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY ONLY PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT DO NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A QUICK SHOWER THROUGH SUNRISE OVER THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS. DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED TO
MID 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...TO NEAR 60 NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN KANSAS.
THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIG DISCREPANCY THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS AND THE COARSER SOLUTIONS. THE NAM AND GFS
ARE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING
AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE VARIOUS HIGH-RES WRF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION BUT ARE REALLY SPARSE ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KANSAS BORDER AREA. FOR NOW
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE TWO PROJECTIONS...WITH HIGHER MOUNTAIN
POPS...SCATTERED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND HIGHER POPS OUT EAST
NEAR WHERE THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE SHEAR WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OUT EAST ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION...THERE COULD VERY WELL BE AN
MCS DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING THAT WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY COME TO AN END FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. THINK THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH THE MCS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
UNDER THE MCS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY START OUT CLOUDY OVER THE PLAINS AS A (LIKELY)
MCS OVER WESTERN KS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY PUSH QUITE A BIT OF
LLVL MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE MTNS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE
MORNING WE SHOULD START TO BREAK UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE AND ABOUT 40 KNTS OF DEEP
SHEAR OVER THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL BEST
KINEMATICS APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF US-50 ON THIS DAY SO THE
STRONGEST ROTATING STORMS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE RATON MESA
REGION. WITH LCLS LIKELY QUITE LOW ON THIS DAY...THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THIS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY BACK TO THE MTNS...SO
SEVERE WEATHER ON THIS DAY WILL AFFECT BOTH THE FAR E PLAINS AND THE
I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THE SUBTROPICAL JET THAT WE DISCUSSED YDAY
ATTM IS STILL PRGD TO BE NOSING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A THREAT ON THIS DAY
(TUESDAY)...MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE
PLAINS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT WE COULD HAVE SOME RAIN ON
THE WALDO ...AND FLASH FLOODING CANT BE RULED OUT.
IN THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH LITTLE RAIN. CG STRIKES WILL POSE A THREAT OF NEW FIRE STARTS
IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY SW MTNS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE
WIND GRIDDS AND RH FIELDS...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVER
THE MTNS AND VALLEYS. OVER THE PLAINS...STOUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE OUT EAST
BUT IT WILL ALSO LIKELY BE STRONGLY CAPPED. IF A STORM SHOULD
DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY ROTATE...BUT WITH SUCH A STOUT CAP THE ODDS
OF INITIATION IS RATHER LOW ATTM.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY REGION-WIDE.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS (15-25
MPH)...BUT THE MTNS WILL LIKELY BE WINDIER. IT WILL BE HOT WITH 100S
ON THE LOWER PLAINS.
SATURDAY...A BIT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE A BIT LESS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTION OVER
FAR SE CO. RED FLAG CONDITIONS...IF THEY OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WILL
LIKELY BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY...WE MAY SEE A COOL FRONT COME DOWN THE PLAINS AND THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. THE MTNS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DRY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD.
KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE TERMINAL
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 19-03Z WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FROM
20-23Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STORMS
THAT MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. STRATUS LOOKS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR.
KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM 23-03Z. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THE TERMINAL AS STORMS PASS NEARBY. IF A
THUNDERSTORM HITS THE TERMINAL...BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH CIGS
REDUCED TO MVFR. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY
000
FXUS65 KPUB 170522
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TODAY ALLOWED FOR EARLY
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE STORMS MOVED ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND ARE SPREADING EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME. AS THE STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING
EAST...THEN WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 40 AT KLHX...MID 40S AT KLAA...AND AROUND 60 AT KSPD (LIKELY
DUE TO THE RAIN THAT FELL THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING)...BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING ON THE PLAINS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH MODELS INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS TO THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE AS EARLY
AS IT DID TODAY WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHOULD SEE A BIT
MORE SUN AND HAVE BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STARK
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MONDAY NIGHT...NAM FORECAST MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO KANSAS BORDER EARLY ON...THEN WANING ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY MID-EVENING. WILDCARD IS
THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WHICH
SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...A
GUSH OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS OUR PLAINS. OUR
FORECAST HAS SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT
LOWERING TO ISOLATED BY SUNRISE..BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
TUESDAY...WILL FEATURE FAIRLY HIGH DEW POINTS FOR OUR EASTERN CWA...UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR
WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000
J/KG...A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RETURN. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNING BEGIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE EACH DAY...AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH INTO
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LOWERING BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTER ABOUT 20Z ON MON THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB. IF ONE MOVES OVER THE
TERMINAL SITE...IT COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ISOLD TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
OF KALS...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING AT THIS TIME
AND WL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STARK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28
000
FXUS65 KPUB 162140
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
340 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TODAY ALLOWED FOR EARLY
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE STORMS MOVED ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND ARE SPREADING EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME. AS THE STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING
EAST...THEN WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 40 AT KLHX...MID 40S AT KLAA...AND AROUND 60 AT KSPD (LIKELY
DUE TO THE RAIN THAT FELL THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING)...BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING ON THE PLAINS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH MODELS INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS TO THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE AS EARLY
AS IT DID TODAY WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHOULD SEE A BIT
MORE SUN AND HAVE BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STARK
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MONDAY NIGHT...NAM FORECAST MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO KANSAS BORDER EARLY ON...THEN WANING ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY MID-EVENING. WILDCARD IS
THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WHICH
SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...A
GUSH OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS OUR PLAINS. OUR
FORECAST HAS SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT
LOWERING TO ISOLATED BY SUNRISE..BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
TUESDAY...WILL FEATURE FAIRLY HIGH DEW POINTS FOR OUR EASTERN CWA...UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR
WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000
J/KG...A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RETURN. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNING BEGIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE EACH DAY...AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH INTO
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LOWERING BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...
KALS...EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU 18Z MONDAY
BEFORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
KCOS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 01Z...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THRU 18Z
MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY.
KPUB...EXPECTED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER 02Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STARK
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STARK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...STARK
000
FXUS65 KPUB 161712
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS BACA COUNTY
BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THERE
HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW ECHOES OVER PROWERS AND EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY
BUT ARE NOT AMOUNTING TO TOO MUCH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE
EAST CLEARING THE PLAINS BY SUNRISE. A WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE I-25
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED IN BEHIND THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TODAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL
DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MODELS ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY 18Z...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EAST THROUGH 20Z OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE MAY BE
THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE...BOTH NSSL AND LOCAL WRFS INDICATING SPARSE
COVERAGE COMPARED TO THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE A FEELING
CELLS BE AT LEAST BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THEY SHIFT EAST OFF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MAIN THREATS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH. EXPECT CONVECTION TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS BY 00Z. THE POTENTIAL EXIST
FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EAST AND
ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH HAIL TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES. THE NSSL WRF IS
INDICATING ONLY WEAK UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES WITH INDIVIDUAL STORM
CORES...WHICH MAY INDICATE ONLY WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH 06Z. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS WILL END AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND THE MAIN
WAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING
BY 06Z AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS PROGRESSION. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOL MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
...ROUNDS OF STORMS...SEVERAL SEVERE...ON THE PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN RETURN TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
PLAINS THIS PERIOD. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE CLASSIC CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS ON THE PLAINS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR. CAPE VALUES ARE FCST TO BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT...1500 J/KG...AND SHEAR WILL BE ABOUT 40 KNTS. AS
EXPECTED...BOTH DAYS ARE OUTLOOKED ON THE SPC WEBPAGE. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL PROBABLY MAKE AS FAR WEST AS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. OF THE
TWO DAYS...TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGINFICANT DAY
AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE TO
UPSLOPE ALONG WITH ENHANCING TH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS OVER
THE PLAINS.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRY
SIDE. ALTHOUGH I DO NOT SEE ABUNDANT DRY THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH CG ACTIVITY TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SAN JUANS WHERE IT HAS BEE ABNORMALLY DRY.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS VERY DRY...HOT AND BREEZY
OVER THE ENTIRE DISTRICT. AS I HAVE THE GRIDDS DRAWN UP...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AND SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. FOR KALS...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL FROM 19Z TO 02Z WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED. FOR KCOS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL FROM 19Z TO 00Z WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN RAIN...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. FOR KPUB...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL FROM 20Z TO
01Z WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
FARTHER TO THE EAST BY 02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THRU MONDAY MORNING. STARK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
DISTRICT. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN
JUANS TUESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
PRODUCT...DENFWFPUB...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...STARK
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 161021
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS BACA COUNTY
BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THERE
HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW ECHOES OVER PROWERS AND EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY
BUT ARE NOT AMOUNTING TO TOO MUCH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE
EAST CLEARING THE PLAINS BY SUNRISE. A WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE I-25
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED IN BEHIND THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TODAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL
DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MODELS ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY 18Z...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EAST THROUGH 20Z OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE MAY BE
THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE...BOTH NSSL AND LOCAL WRFS INDICATING SPARSE
COVERAGE COMPARED TO THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE A FEELING
CELLS BE AT LEAST BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THEY SHIFT EAST OFF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MAIN THREATS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH. EXPECT CONVECTION TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS BY 00Z. THE POTENTIAL EXIST
FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EAST AND
ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH HAIL TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES. THE NSSL WRF IS
INDICATING ONLY WEAK UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES WITH INDIVIDUAL STORM
CORES...WHICH MAY INDICATE ONLY WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH 06Z. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS WILL END AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND THE MAIN
WAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING
BY 06Z AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS PROGRESSION. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOL MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
...ROUNDS OF STORMS...SEVERAL SEVERE...ON THE PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN RETURN TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
PLAINS THIS PERIOD. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE CLASSIC CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS ON THE PLAINS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR. CAPE VALUES ARE FCST TO BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT...1500 J/KG...AND SHEAR WILL BE ABOUT 40 KNTS. AS
EXPECTED...BOTH DAYS ARE OUTLOOKED ON THE SPC WEBPAGE. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL PROBABLY MAKE AS FAR WEST AS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. OF THE
TWO DAYS...TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGINFICANT DAY
AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE TO
UPSLOPE ALONG WITH ENHANCING TH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS OVER
THE PLAINS.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRY
SIDE. ALTHOUGH I DO NOT SEE ABUNDANT DRY THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH CG ACTIVITY TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SAN JUANS WHERE IT HAS BEE ABNORMALLY DRY.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS VERY DRY...HOT AND BREEZY
OVER THE ENTIRE DISTRICT. AS I HAVE THE GRIDDS DRAWN UP...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL FROM 18-02Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY
NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.
KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...FROM 19-02Z. THE TERMINAL WILL
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER HEAD WITH REDUCED CIGS AND
LOWERED VIS AS CORES PASS CREATING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS IN THE VICINITY OF
KPUB BETWEEN 20-00Z. REDUCED VIS AND CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CORES THAT PASS OVER THE TERMINAL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MOZLEY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
DISTRICT. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN
JUANS TUESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
PRODUCT...DENFWFPUB...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH
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