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000
FXUS65 KPUB 300008
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
608 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE UPPER SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIXING FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

BASED ON RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS...WILL ADJUST EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING INSTEAD OF
MIDNIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AT
21Z THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 03Z SATURDAY
AND THEN INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z SUNDAY.  IF SYSTEM DEPARTS FASTER THEN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE ADJUSTED TO
END EVEN EARLIER.

OVERALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY
RUN AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN/MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...HAVE DEPICTED AREAS OF FOG OVER MANY LOCATIONS FROM
THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND COOL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION
THEN DEVELOPING OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WESTERN LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY 00Z SUNDAY.  AT THIS TIME...HAVE DEPICTED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS GENERALLY UNDER 3 INCHES
DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TIME-FRAME.

FINALLY...WELL BELOW SEASONAL LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD RUN AROUND
10F HIGHER THAN MAXIMUM VALUES NOTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER MANY
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY,
PASSING OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE
SUNDAY AS IT PASSES OVER COLORADO. QG FORCING WEAKENS WITH THIS
STORM AND THE BEST QG LIST STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC
AND SUPERBLEND QPF WHICH HAVE AROUND ONE THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ON THE PLAINS. SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER THAN THE ONE WHICH
HIT THE REGION TODAY, BUT WITH LIGHTER QPF NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL STICK TO THE ROADS GIVEN THE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION RATES.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST, AND ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT, RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND STRONG EARLY MAY SUNSHINE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH DAYS. CONVECTION WILL NOT BE EVERY ORGANIZED AND ANTICIPATE
LIGHT QPF. EC CONTINUES TO HAVE A COMPACT UPPER LOW MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
SOLUTION IS UNUSUAL AND STILL DISCOUNTING THIS SOLUTION. CURRENT
EC SOLUTION KEEPS MOST OF THE EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA.
ANTICIPATE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHT QPF.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW MAY BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO START BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, AND GRIDS HAVE AN INCREASES IN POPS,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS...INITIALLY DUE TO SNOW AND THEN FOG...ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY
03Z SATURDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z SUNDAY.  SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NOTED OVER
THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS
COLORADO.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>063-
072>082-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ066-
068-083-086>088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 300008
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
608 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE UPPER SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIXING FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

BASED ON RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS...WILL ADJUST EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING INSTEAD OF
MIDNIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AT
21Z THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 03Z SATURDAY
AND THEN INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z SUNDAY.  IF SYSTEM DEPARTS FASTER THEN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE ADJUSTED TO
END EVEN EARLIER.

OVERALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY
RUN AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN/MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...HAVE DEPICTED AREAS OF FOG OVER MANY LOCATIONS FROM
THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND COOL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION
THEN DEVELOPING OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WESTERN LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY 00Z SUNDAY.  AT THIS TIME...HAVE DEPICTED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS GENERALLY UNDER 3 INCHES
DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TIME-FRAME.

FINALLY...WELL BELOW SEASONAL LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD RUN AROUND
10F HIGHER THAN MAXIMUM VALUES NOTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER MANY
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY,
PASSING OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE
SUNDAY AS IT PASSES OVER COLORADO. QG FORCING WEAKENS WITH THIS
STORM AND THE BEST QG LIST STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC
AND SUPERBLEND QPF WHICH HAVE AROUND ONE THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ON THE PLAINS. SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER THAN THE ONE WHICH
HIT THE REGION TODAY, BUT WITH LIGHTER QPF NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL STICK TO THE ROADS GIVEN THE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION RATES.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST, AND ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT, RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND STRONG EARLY MAY SUNSHINE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH DAYS. CONVECTION WILL NOT BE EVERY ORGANIZED AND ANTICIPATE
LIGHT QPF. EC CONTINUES TO HAVE A COMPACT UPPER LOW MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
SOLUTION IS UNUSUAL AND STILL DISCOUNTING THIS SOLUTION. CURRENT
EC SOLUTION KEEPS MOST OF THE EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA.
ANTICIPATE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHT QPF.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW MAY BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO START BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, AND GRIDS HAVE AN INCREASES IN POPS,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS...INITIALLY DUE TO SNOW AND THEN FOG...ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY
03Z SATURDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z SUNDAY.  SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NOTED OVER
THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS
COLORADO.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>063-
072>082-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ066-
068-083-086>088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 292136
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
336 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

BASED ON RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS...WILL ADJUST EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING INSTEAD OF
MIDNIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AT
21Z THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 03Z SATURDAY
AND THEN INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z SUNDAY.  IF SYSTEM DEPARTS FASTER THEN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE ADJUSTED TO
END EVEN EARLIER.

OVERALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY
RUN AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN/MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...HAVE DEPICTED AREAS OF FOG OVER MANY LOCATIONS FROM
THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND COOL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION
THEN DEVELOPING OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WESTERN LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY 00Z SUNDAY.  AT THIS TIME...HAVE DEPICTED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS GENERALLY UNDER 3 INCHES
DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TIME-FRAME.

FINALLY...WELL BELOW SEASONAL LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD RUN AROUND
10F HIGHER THAN MAXIMUM VALUES NOTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER MANY
LOCATIONS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY,
PASSING OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE
SUNDAY AS IT PASSES OVER COLORADO. QG FORCING WEAKENS WITH THIS
STORM AND THE BEST QG LIST STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC
AND SUPERBLEND QPF WHICH HAVE AROUND ONE THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ON THE PLAINS. SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER THAN THE ONE WHICH
HIT THE REGION TODAY, BUT WITH LIGHTER QPF NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL STICK TO THE ROADS GIVEN THE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION RATES.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST, AND ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT, RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND STRONG EARLY MAY SUNSHINE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH DAYS. CONVECTION WILL NOT BE EVERY ORGANIZED AND ANTICIPATE
LIGHT QPF. EC CONTINUES TO HAVE A COMPACT UPPER LOW MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
SOLUTION IS UNUSUAL AND STILL DISCOUNTING THIS SOLUTION. CURRENT
EC SOLUTION KEEPS MOST OF THE EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA.
ANTICIPATE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHT QPF.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW MAY BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO START BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, AND GRIDS HAVE AN INCREASES IN POPS,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS...INITIALLY DUE TO SNOW AND THEN FOG...ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY
03Z SATURDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z SUNDAY.  SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NOTED OVER
THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS
COLORADO.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>063-
072>082-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ066-
068-083-086>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291715
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

...STRONG SPRING STORM MOVES THROUGH COLORADO TODAY...

UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND NOSING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AS OF 09Z. HAVE SEEN INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN AND SNOW LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA CURRENTLY IN A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIP...AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIP
NOW FORMING OVER ERN NM. SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN A
LITTLE LIGHTER AND PATCHIER THAN EXPECTED...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF 6-8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WETS/FREMONT COUNTY
ALREADY...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME HEAVIER REPORTS FROM THE WETS/SRN
SANGRES ONCE DATA BEGINS TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING. EL
PASO/TELLER COUNTY HAVE IN GENERAL UNDERPERFORMED WITH SNOW...AS
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW HAS BEEN VERY SLOW BELOW ABOUT 6500 FEET AS
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS LACKING.

FOR TODAY...SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS AND MESOSCALE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVER ERN NM WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH STEADY RAIN AND SNOW REDEVELOPING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY DRIFT DOWN
BELOW 6000 FEET FOR A TIME AROUND SUNRISE WITH ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER
PRECIP...THEN PUSH BACK TO BETWEEN 6-7K FEET BY AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SET OF HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE
FOR NOW...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SRN EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY COME UP SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. ADVISORY
FOR PUEBLO AREA LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS WELL...THOUGH SRN PORTION
OF THE ZONE AROUND COLORADO CITY COULD SEE ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT
CONTINUANCE AT THIS POINT. AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER
SNOW THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WOULD BE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND LOWER SLOPES OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS...AS EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE VALLEY MAY PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW IN A
FEW SPOTS. OVERALL...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A FEW
SPOTS WHERE CHANGE-OVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO WRN KS...WITH NW
WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS DURING THE
EVENING AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP FADE FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER 00Z AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE. MIN TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK...THOUGH WON`T DO ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT
AS PLENTY OF OTHER WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

...MORE SNOW AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN KS. NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
OVER MUCH OF SE CO...BUT ESPECIALLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND ERN
MTS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SAT NIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN FALL FROM AROUND 7K FEET SAT TO NR 6K FEET
BY SUN MORNING.

SUNDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE UPSWING AS A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BROAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC
LIFT AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE ERN PLAINS. KCOS AND
VICINITY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SNOW
LEVELS REMAINING 6000-6500 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS AND SRN SANGRES...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SRN FRONT RANGE AND PIKES PK REGION. WILL
LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLITES FOR THE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
SRN MTNS.

THIS SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ON MONDAY...AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
WANE OVER THE AREA. A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ON TUESDAY...BUT A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING OVER THE MTS. THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. A STRONGER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WED AND THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA. ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND COULD
AFFECT OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 06Z SATURDAY. SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS
COLORADO.

 &&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>063-
072>082-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ066-
068-083-086>088.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291715
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

...STRONG SPRING STORM MOVES THROUGH COLORADO TODAY...

UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND NOSING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AS OF 09Z. HAVE SEEN INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN AND SNOW LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA CURRENTLY IN A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIP...AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIP
NOW FORMING OVER ERN NM. SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN A
LITTLE LIGHTER AND PATCHIER THAN EXPECTED...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF 6-8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WETS/FREMONT COUNTY
ALREADY...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME HEAVIER REPORTS FROM THE WETS/SRN
SANGRES ONCE DATA BEGINS TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING. EL
PASO/TELLER COUNTY HAVE IN GENERAL UNDERPERFORMED WITH SNOW...AS
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW HAS BEEN VERY SLOW BELOW ABOUT 6500 FEET AS
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS LACKING.

FOR TODAY...SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS AND MESOSCALE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVER ERN NM WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH STEADY RAIN AND SNOW REDEVELOPING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY DRIFT DOWN
BELOW 6000 FEET FOR A TIME AROUND SUNRISE WITH ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER
PRECIP...THEN PUSH BACK TO BETWEEN 6-7K FEET BY AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SET OF HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE
FOR NOW...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SRN EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY COME UP SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. ADVISORY
FOR PUEBLO AREA LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS WELL...THOUGH SRN PORTION
OF THE ZONE AROUND COLORADO CITY COULD SEE ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT
CONTINUANCE AT THIS POINT. AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER
SNOW THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WOULD BE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND LOWER SLOPES OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS...AS EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE VALLEY MAY PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW IN A
FEW SPOTS. OVERALL...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A FEW
SPOTS WHERE CHANGE-OVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO WRN KS...WITH NW
WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS DURING THE
EVENING AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP FADE FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER 00Z AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE. MIN TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK...THOUGH WON`T DO ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT
AS PLENTY OF OTHER WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

...MORE SNOW AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN KS. NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
OVER MUCH OF SE CO...BUT ESPECIALLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND ERN
MTS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SAT NIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN FALL FROM AROUND 7K FEET SAT TO NR 6K FEET
BY SUN MORNING.

SUNDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE UPSWING AS A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BROAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC
LIFT AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE ERN PLAINS. KCOS AND
VICINITY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SNOW
LEVELS REMAINING 6000-6500 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS AND SRN SANGRES...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SRN FRONT RANGE AND PIKES PK REGION. WILL
LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLITES FOR THE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
SRN MTNS.

THIS SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ON MONDAY...AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
WANE OVER THE AREA. A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ON TUESDAY...BUT A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING OVER THE MTS. THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. A STRONGER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WED AND THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA. ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND COULD
AFFECT OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 06Z SATURDAY. SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS
COLORADO.

 &&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>063-
072>082-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ066-
068-083-086>088.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291008
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
408 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

...STRONG SPRING STORM MOVES THROUGH COLORADO TODAY...

UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND NOSING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AS OF 09Z. HAVE SEEN INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN AND SNOW LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA CURRENTLY IN A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIP...AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIP
NOW FORMING OVER ERN NM. SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN A
LITTLE LIGHTER AND PATCHIER THAN EXPECTED...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF 6-8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WETS/FREMONT COUNTY
ALREADY...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME HEAVIER REPORTS FROM THE WETS/SRN
SANGRES ONCE DATA BEGINS TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING. EL
PASO/TELLER COUNTY HAVE IN GENERAL UNDERPERFORMED WITH SNOW...AS
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW HAS BEEN VERY SLOW BELOW ABOUT 6500 FEET AS
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS LACKING.

FOR TODAY...SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS AND MESOSCALE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVER ERN NM WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH STEADY RAIN AND SNOW REDEVELOPING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY DRIFT DOWN
BELOW 6000 FEET FOR A TIME AROUND SUNRISE WITH ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER
PRECIP...THEN PUSH BACK TO BETWEEN 6-7K FEET BY AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SET OF HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE
FOR NOW...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SRN EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY COME UP SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. ADVISORY
FOR PUEBLO AREA LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS WELL...THOUGH SRN PORTION
OF THE ZONE AROUND COLORADO CITY COULD SEE ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT
CONTINUANCE AT THIS POINT. AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER
SNOW THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WOULD BE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND LOWER SLOPES OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS...AS EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE VALLEY MAY PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW IN A
FEW SPOTS. OVERALL...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A FEW
SPOTS WHERE CHANGE-OVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO WRN KS...WITH NW
WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS DURING THE
EVENING AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP FADE FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER 00Z AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE. MIN TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK...THOUGH WON`T DO ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT
AS PLENTY OF OTHER WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

...MORE SNOW AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN KS. NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
OVER MUCH OF SE CO...BUT ESPECIALLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND ERN
MTS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SAT NIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN FALL FROM AROUND 7K FEET SAT TO NR 6K FEET
BY SUN MORNING.

SUNDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE UPSWING AS A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BROAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC
LIFT AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE ERN PLAINS. KCOS AND
VICINITY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SNOW
LEVELS REMAINING 6000-6500 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS AND SRN SANGRES...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SRN FRONT RANGE AND PIKES PK REGION. WILL
LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLITES FOR THE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
SRN MTNS.

THIS SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ON MONDAY...AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
WANE OVER THE AREA. A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ON TUESDAY...BUT A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING OVER THE MTS. THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. A STRONGER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WED AND THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA. ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND COULD
AFFECT OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHOULD SEE GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS COLORADO AND BAND
OF HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES NORTH OUT OF NM. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH
CIGS/VIS AFTER 00Z AS PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AT KALS...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DROP BACK TO
MVFR/BRIEFLY IFR AFTER SUNRISE AS PRECIP MOVES BACK IN...WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES UNTIL MIDDAY. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. AT KCOS...MAINLY
IFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF LIFR UNDER HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A SLUSHY
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE TERMINAL BEFORE RAIN MIXES
BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON. AT KPUB...IFR WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY...IMPROVING THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A BRIEF
RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS MORNING...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS
HERE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>063-
072>082-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ066-
068-083-086>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 290544
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1144 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH 3 AM. RADAR INDICATES A FEW CELLS OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THAT WILL WORK NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL TO HALF AN INCH IN
DIAMETER AND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK COMPARED TO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE HOVERED
AROUND 6000 FEET...AND SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOW TOTALS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES THERE. REDUCED AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY BASED ON GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR SOME...HEAVY RAIN FOR OTHERS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

ONCE AGAIN...WE FIND OURSELVES IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A MAJOR SPRING
STORM SYSTEM.  UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NICELY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AT THIS HOUR...SLATED FOR A TREK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  SYSTEM IS MOISTURE LADEN...UNSTABLE...AND
DYNAMIC...ALL THE THINGS WE LIKE TO SEE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
SPRING TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SWATH OF GOOD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LIKELY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.

SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GEN UP PRECIPITATION AS WE SPEAK.  SATELLITE
SHOWS A LARGE...DIFFLUENT REGION SPREADING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS
OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AT THIS TIME IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.  AS
THE SYSTEM GETS A LITTLE CLOSER THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SOME OF THE STORMS...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING EASTERN
LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR
...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. INCIDENTALLY...LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL OR QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVE THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 6000
FEET...GIVE OR TAKE...WITH HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS LEVEL.  BECAUSE THE SNOW WILL BE SO HEAVY AND
WET...POWER DISRUPTIONS AND TREE DAMAGE WILL BE CONCERNS AS WELL AS
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WHERE THE SNOW MANAGES TO PILE UP ON THE ROADS.
SNOW MAY ALSO FALL DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE PUEBLO...PUEBLO WEST AND CANON CITY
AREAS.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN
THESE AREAS.  THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...1 TO LOCALLY 2 FEET OF
SNOW OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A FOOT OF SNOW.
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SHOULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AS A
GENERALIZATION. FOR EASTERN FREMONT...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
DEPENDING ON ELEVATION...RANGING FROM AROUND A COUPLE INCHES AT
THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL TO AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES NEARER THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR ELEVATIONS GENERALLY BELOW 5000 FEET...MAINLY JUST RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE DECENT.  AS A
GENERALIZATION...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS COMING IN AT 2 INCHES.  WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FARTHER WEST WON`T FARE QUITE AS WELL
...MOST AREAS CAN STILL EXPECT TO SEE A QUARTER TO 3 QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID BY FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACT SOUTHERN
COLORADO AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS/QPF AMOUNTS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT
TIMES.

LATEST LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
PROJECTED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION/SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA BY LATER SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...
DUE TO PROXIMITY/TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AT 06Z SUNDAY WHICH MOVES
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 18Z SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS UTAH INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER DURATION PRECIPITATION FROM
LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH 28.12Z GFS
INDICATING THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME...WHILE 28.12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
IDEA OF NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS FROM APPROXIMATELY 18Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DEPICT AREAS OF
ISOLATED POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND MONITOR LATER
DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONGER TERM EXPECTED SUNDAY...WHILE WARMEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCED BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

CONDITIONS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW AT KCOS
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND AFTER 08Z FOR KPUB. KALS WILL SEE -SHRASN
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO THE VFR CATEGORY FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ058>063-072>082-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ066-068-083-086>088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 290522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE HOVERED
AROUND 6000 FEET...AND SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOW TOTALS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES THERE. REDUCED AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY BASED ON GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR SOME...HEAVY RAIN FOR OTHERS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

ONCE AGAIN...WE FIND OURSELVES IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A MAJOR SPRING
STORM SYSTEM.  UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NICELY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AT THIS HOUR...SLATED FOR A TREK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  SYSTEM IS MOISTURE LADEN...UNSTABLE...AND
DYNAMIC...ALL THE THINGS WE LIKE TO SEE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
SPRING TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SWATH OF GOOD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LIKELY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.

SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GEN UP PRECIPITATION AS WE SPEAK.  SATELLITE
SHOWS A LARGE...DIFFLUENT REGION SPREADING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS
OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AT THIS TIME IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.  AS
THE SYSTEM GETS A LITTLE CLOSER THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SOME OF THE STORMS...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING EASTERN
LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR
...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. INCIDENTALLY...LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL OR QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVE THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 6000
FEET...GIVE OR TAKE...WITH HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS LEVEL.  BECAUSE THE SNOW WILL BE SO HEAVY AND
WET...POWER DISRUPTIONS AND TREE DAMAGE WILL BE CONCERNS AS WELL AS
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WHERE THE SNOW MANAGES TO PILE UP ON THE ROADS.
SNOW MAY ALSO FALL DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE PUEBLO...PUEBLO WEST AND CANON CITY
AREAS.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN
THESE AREAS.  THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...1 TO LOCALLY 2 FEET OF
SNOW OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A FOOT OF SNOW.
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SHOULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AS A
GENERALIZATION. FOR EASTERN FREMONT...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
DEPENDING ON ELEVATION...RANGING FROM AROUND A COUPLE INCHES AT
THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL TO AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES NEARER THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR ELEVATIONS GENERALLY BELOW 5000 FEET...MAINLY JUST RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE DECENT.  AS A
GENERALIZATION...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS COMING IN AT 2 INCHES.  WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FARTHER WEST WON`T FARE QUITE AS WELL
...MOST AREAS CAN STILL EXPECT TO SEE A QUARTER TO 3 QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID BY FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACT SOUTHERN
COLORADO AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS/QPF AMOUNTS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT
TIMES.

LATEST LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
PROJECTED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION/SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA BY LATER SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...
DUE TO PROXIMITY/TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AT 06Z SUNDAY WHICH MOVES
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 18Z SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS UTAH INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER DURATION PRECIPITATION FROM
LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH 28.12Z GFS
INDICATING THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME...WHILE 28.12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
IDEA OF NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS FROM APPROXIMATELY 18Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DEPICT AREAS OF
ISOLATED POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND MONITOR LATER
DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONGER TERM EXPECTED SUNDAY...WHILE WARMEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCED BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

CONDITIONS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW AT KCOS
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND AFTER 08Z FOR KPUB. KALS WILL SEE -SHRASN
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO THE VFR CATEGORY FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ058>063-072>082-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ066-068-083-086>088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 290522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE HOVERED
AROUND 6000 FEET...AND SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOW TOTALS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES THERE. REDUCED AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY BASED ON GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR SOME...HEAVY RAIN FOR OTHERS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

ONCE AGAIN...WE FIND OURSELVES IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A MAJOR SPRING
STORM SYSTEM.  UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NICELY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AT THIS HOUR...SLATED FOR A TREK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  SYSTEM IS MOISTURE LADEN...UNSTABLE...AND
DYNAMIC...ALL THE THINGS WE LIKE TO SEE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
SPRING TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SWATH OF GOOD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LIKELY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.

SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GEN UP PRECIPITATION AS WE SPEAK.  SATELLITE
SHOWS A LARGE...DIFFLUENT REGION SPREADING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS
OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AT THIS TIME IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.  AS
THE SYSTEM GETS A LITTLE CLOSER THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SOME OF THE STORMS...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING EASTERN
LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR
...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. INCIDENTALLY...LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL OR QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVE THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 6000
FEET...GIVE OR TAKE...WITH HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS LEVEL.  BECAUSE THE SNOW WILL BE SO HEAVY AND
WET...POWER DISRUPTIONS AND TREE DAMAGE WILL BE CONCERNS AS WELL AS
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WHERE THE SNOW MANAGES TO PILE UP ON THE ROADS.
SNOW MAY ALSO FALL DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE PUEBLO...PUEBLO WEST AND CANON CITY
AREAS.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN
THESE AREAS.  THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...1 TO LOCALLY 2 FEET OF
SNOW OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A FOOT OF SNOW.
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SHOULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AS A
GENERALIZATION. FOR EASTERN FREMONT...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
DEPENDING ON ELEVATION...RANGING FROM AROUND A COUPLE INCHES AT
THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL TO AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES NEARER THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR ELEVATIONS GENERALLY BELOW 5000 FEET...MAINLY JUST RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE DECENT.  AS A
GENERALIZATION...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS COMING IN AT 2 INCHES.  WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FARTHER WEST WON`T FARE QUITE AS WELL
...MOST AREAS CAN STILL EXPECT TO SEE A QUARTER TO 3 QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID BY FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACT SOUTHERN
COLORADO AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS/QPF AMOUNTS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT
TIMES.

LATEST LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
PROJECTED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION/SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA BY LATER SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...
DUE TO PROXIMITY/TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AT 06Z SUNDAY WHICH MOVES
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 18Z SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS UTAH INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER DURATION PRECIPITATION FROM
LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH 28.12Z GFS
INDICATING THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME...WHILE 28.12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
IDEA OF NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS FROM APPROXIMATELY 18Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DEPICT AREAS OF
ISOLATED POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND MONITOR LATER
DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONGER TERM EXPECTED SUNDAY...WHILE WARMEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCED BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

CONDITIONS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW AT KCOS
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND AFTER 08Z FOR KPUB. KALS WILL SEE -SHRASN
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO THE VFR CATEGORY FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ058>063-072>082-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ066-068-083-086>088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 290019
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
619 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE HOVERED
AROUND 6000 FEET...AND SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOW TOTALS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES THERE. REDUCED AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY BASED ON GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR SOME...HEAVY RAIN FOR OTHERS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

ONCE AGAIN...WE FIND OURSELVES IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A MAJOR SPRING
STORM SYSTEM.  UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NICELY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AT THIS HOUR...SLATED FOR A TREK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  SYSTEM IS MOISTURE LADEN...UNSTABLE...AND
DYNAMIC...ALL THE THINGS WE LIKE TO SEE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
SPRING TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SWATH OF GOOD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LIKELY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.

SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GEN UP PRECIPITATION AS WE SPEAK.  SATELLITE
SHOWS A LARGE...DIFFLUENT REGION SPREADING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS
OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AT THIS TIME IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.  AS
THE SYSTEM GETS A LITTLE CLOSER THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SOME OF THE STORMS...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING EASTERN
LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR
...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. INCIDENTALLY...LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL OR QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVE THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 6000
FEET...GIVE OR TAKE...WITH HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS LEVEL.  BECAUSE THE SNOW WILL BE SO HEAVY AND
WET...POWER DISRUPTIONS AND TREE DAMAGE WILL BE CONCERNS AS WELL AS
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WHERE THE SNOW MANAGES TO PILE UP ON THE ROADS.
SNOW MAY ALSO FALL DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE PUEBLO...PUEBLO WEST AND CANON CITY
AREAS.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN
THESE AREAS.  THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...1 TO LOCALLY 2 FEET OF
SNOW OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A FOOT OF SNOW.
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SHOULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AS A
GENERALIZATION. FOR EASTERN FREMONT...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
DEPENDING ON ELEVATION...RANGING FROM AROUND A COUPLE INCHES AT
THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL TO AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES NEARER THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR ELEVATIONS GENERALLY BELOW 5000 FEET...MAINLY JUST RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE DECENT.  AS A
GENERALIZATION...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS COMING IN AT 2 INCHES.  WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FARTHER WEST WON`T FARE QUITE AS WELL
...MOST AREAS CAN STILL EXPECT TO SEE A QUARTER TO 3 QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID BY FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACT SOUTHERN
COLORADO AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS/QPF AMOUNTS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT
TIMES.

LATEST LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
PROJECTED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION/SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA BY LATER SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...
DUE TO PROXIMITY/TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AT 06Z SUNDAY WHICH MOVES
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 18Z SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS UTAH INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER DURATION PRECIPITATION FROM
LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH 28.12Z GFS
INDICATING THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME...WHILE 28.12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
IDEA OF NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS FROM APPROXIMATELY 18Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DEPICT AREAS OF
ISOLATED POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND MONITOR LATER
DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONGER TERM EXPECTED SUNDAY...WHILE WARMEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCED BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

MAJOR SPRING STORM WILL IMPACT FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
BOTH SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET AND MAINLY RAIN BELOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE MOST INTENSE AND
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PRIMARILY IMPACTING LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND
PROWERS COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...HEAVY SNOW AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. KALS CAN EXPECT TO BE IN AND
OUT OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH. KCOS...KPUB TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO BE IN AND
OUT OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS BECOMING DOMINANT AFTER 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ058>063-072>082-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ066-068-083-086>088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 282148
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR SOME...HEAVY RAIN FOR OTHERS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

ONCE AGAIN...WE FIND OURSELVES IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A MAJOR SPRING
STORM SYSTEM.  UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NICELY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AT THIS HOUR...SLATED FOR A TREK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  SYSTEM IS MOISTURE LADEN...UNSTABLE...AND
DYNAMIC...ALL THE THINGS WE LIKE TO SEE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
SPRING TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SWATH OF GOOD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LIKELY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.

SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GEN UP PRECIPITATION AS WE SPEAK.  SATELLITE
SHOWS A LARGE...DIFFLUENT REGION SPREADING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS
OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AT THIS TIME IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.  AS
THE SYSTEM GETS A LITTLE CLOSER THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SOME OF THE STORMS...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING EASTERN
LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR
...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. INCIDENTALLY...LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL OR QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVE THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 6000
FEET...GIVE OR TAKE...WITH HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS LEVEL.  BECAUSE THE SNOW WILL BE SO HEAVY AND
WET...POWER DISRUPTIONS AND TREE DAMAGE WILL BE CONCERNS AS WELL AS
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WHERE THE SNOW MANAGES TO PILE UP ON THE ROADS.
SNOW MAY ALSO FALL DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE PUEBLO...PUEBLO WEST AND CANON CITY
AREAS.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN
THESE AREAS.  THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...1 TO LOCALLY 2 FEET OF
SNOW OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A FOOT OF SNOW.
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SHOULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AS A
GENERALIZATION. FOR EASTERN FREMONT...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
DEPENDING ON ELEVATION...RANGING FROM AROUND A COUPLE INCHES AT
THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL TO AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES NEARER THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR ELEVATIONS GENERALLY BELOW 5000 FEET...MAINLY JUST RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE DECENT.  AS A
GENERALIZATION...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS COMING IN AT 2 INCHES.  WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FARTHER WEST WON`T FARE QUITE AS WELL
...MOST AREAS CAN STILL EXPECT TO SEE A QUARTER TO 3 QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID BY FRIDAY EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACT SOUTHERN
COLORADO AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS/QPF AMOUNTS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT
TIMES.

LATEST LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
PROJECTED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION/SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA BY LATER SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...
DUE TO PROXIMITY/TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AT 06Z SUNDAY WHICH MOVES
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 18Z SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS UTAH INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER DURATION PRECIPITATION FROM
LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH 28.12Z GFS
INDICATING THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME...WHILE 28.12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
IDEA OF NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS FROM APPROXIMATELY 18Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DEPICT AREAS OF
ISOLATED POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND MONITOR LATER
DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONGER TERM EXPECTED SUNDAY...WHILE WARMEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCED BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

MAJOR SPRING STORM WILL IMPACT FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
BOTH SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET AND MAINLY RAIN BELOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE MOST INTENSE AND
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PRIMARILY IMPACTING LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND
PROWERS COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...HEAVY SNOW AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. KALS CAN EXPECT TO BE IN AND
OUT OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH. KCOS...KPUB TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO BE IN AND
OUT OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS BECOMING DOMINANT AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ058>061-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ083-086>088.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ066-068.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 282148
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR SOME...HEAVY RAIN FOR OTHERS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

ONCE AGAIN...WE FIND OURSELVES IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A MAJOR SPRING
STORM SYSTEM.  UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NICELY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AT THIS HOUR...SLATED FOR A TREK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  SYSTEM IS MOISTURE LADEN...UNSTABLE...AND
DYNAMIC...ALL THE THINGS WE LIKE TO SEE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
SPRING TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SWATH OF GOOD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LIKELY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.

SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GEN UP PRECIPITATION AS WE SPEAK.  SATELLITE
SHOWS A LARGE...DIFFLUENT REGION SPREADING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS
OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AT THIS TIME IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.  AS
THE SYSTEM GETS A LITTLE CLOSER THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SOME OF THE STORMS...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING EASTERN
LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR
...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. INCIDENTALLY...LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL OR QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVE THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 6000
FEET...GIVE OR TAKE...WITH HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS LEVEL.  BECAUSE THE SNOW WILL BE SO HEAVY AND
WET...POWER DISRUPTIONS AND TREE DAMAGE WILL BE CONCERNS AS WELL AS
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WHERE THE SNOW MANAGES TO PILE UP ON THE ROADS.
SNOW MAY ALSO FALL DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE PUEBLO...PUEBLO WEST AND CANON CITY
AREAS.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN
THESE AREAS.  THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...1 TO LOCALLY 2 FEET OF
SNOW OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A FOOT OF SNOW.
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SHOULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AS A
GENERALIZATION. FOR EASTERN FREMONT...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
DEPENDING ON ELEVATION...RANGING FROM AROUND A COUPLE INCHES AT
THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL TO AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES NEARER THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR ELEVATIONS GENERALLY BELOW 5000 FEET...MAINLY JUST RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE DECENT.  AS A
GENERALIZATION...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS COMING IN AT 2 INCHES.  WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FARTHER WEST WON`T FARE QUITE AS WELL
...MOST AREAS CAN STILL EXPECT TO SEE A QUARTER TO 3 QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID BY FRIDAY EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACT SOUTHERN
COLORADO AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS/QPF AMOUNTS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT
TIMES.

LATEST LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
PROJECTED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION/SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA BY LATER SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...
DUE TO PROXIMITY/TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AT 06Z SUNDAY WHICH MOVES
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 18Z SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS UTAH INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER DURATION PRECIPITATION FROM
LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH 28.12Z GFS
INDICATING THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME...WHILE 28.12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
IDEA OF NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS FROM APPROXIMATELY 18Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DEPICT AREAS OF
ISOLATED POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND MONITOR LATER
DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONGER TERM EXPECTED SUNDAY...WHILE WARMEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCED BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

MAJOR SPRING STORM WILL IMPACT FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
BOTH SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET AND MAINLY RAIN BELOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE MOST INTENSE AND
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PRIMARILY IMPACTING LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND
PROWERS COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...HEAVY SNOW AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. KALS CAN EXPECT TO BE IN AND
OUT OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH. KCOS...KPUB TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO BE IN AND
OUT OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS BECOMING DOMINANT AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ058>061-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ083-086>088.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ066-068.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281659
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1059 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF STRONG
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL
SATELLITE AND RADARS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT WAA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WITH ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A
BETTER COVERAGE OF ECHOES SPREADING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS
TIME.

LATEST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DIG
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND EASTERN
MTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AT OR ABOVE 9000 FT...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO WARNINGS.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...1 TO
LOCALLY 2 FEET OF WET HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER MT AREAS...THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY...THE WET MT VALLEY AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE. WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 6000
FEET...WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA...WITH 1 TO 4
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CITY...MAKING FOR A MESSY FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING IN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THE LATEST NAM IS INDICATING CAPES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
BACA COUNTY. THIS...ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR...WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS THE THETA-E AXIS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES.  AT ANY RATE...THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY
FRI...THEN CRAWLS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR
THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON FRI...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTH...ALLOWING LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME INCREASING W-NW OVERNIGHT. RAIN/SNOW LINE AROUND 6000
FEET FRI MORNING WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARD TO ABOUT 7000 FEET DURING
THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND PRECIP INTENSITY
DECREASES...WITH A SLUSHY FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS
COLORADO SPRINGS BEFORE SWITCH BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OCCURS AROUND MIDDAY. UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM CANON CITY
WESTWARD THROUGH SALIDA AND UP TO BUENA VISTA COULD ALSO SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW FRI MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK TO RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL...WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
MOST MOUNTAINS/PALMER DIVIDE AND UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY LOOK ON
TRACK...WITH A SHARP DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 6-7K FEET. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST ZONES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL...WHICH SHOULD HOLD STORM
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DOWN. STILL APPEARS TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THU-FRI WILL EXCEED AN INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH POCKETS OF UP
TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOL FRI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 30S/40S ACROSS THE AREA.

STILL APPEARS WE`LL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS FIRST UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE
SECONDARY ENERGY CARVES OUT A NEW LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. TOUGH TO
RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE...SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MENTION IN MOST ZONES THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AS UPPER
LOW OVER AZ SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPWARD
MOTION STRENGTHENS AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TURNING EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
SHOULD THUS SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNING TO MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS
FROM OVERNIGHT SAT INTO AT LEAST MON MORNING. MAY NEED A NEW ROUND
OF HIGHLIGHTS FOR SNOW FOR HIGHER MOUNTAINS...THOUGH IN GENERAL
28/00Z MODELS HAVE LESS PRECIP AND A WEAKER LOW THAN SOLUTIONS
FROM 24 HRS AGO. WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH AND TEMPS COOL SUN
INTO MON...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF MON EVENING AS LOW WALLOWS
BACK NORTH AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS TUE AND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THOUGH WITH FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TO FIRE AT LEAST ISOLATED WEAK
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUE INTO THU.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES TUE...THEN PUSH
TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS WED/THU AS HEIGHT FINALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

MAJOR SPRING STORM WILL IMPACT FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
BOTH SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET AND MAINLY RAIN BELOW. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE MOST INTENSE AND
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PRIMARILY IMPACTING LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND
PROWERS COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...HEAVY SNOW AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. KALS CAN EXPECT TO BE IN
AND OUT OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH. KCOS...KPUB TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO BE IN
AND OUT OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS BECOMING DOMINANT AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ058>061-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281659
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1059 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF STRONG
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL
SATELLITE AND RADARS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT WAA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WITH ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A
BETTER COVERAGE OF ECHOES SPREADING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS
TIME.

LATEST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DIG
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND EASTERN
MTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AT OR ABOVE 9000 FT...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO WARNINGS.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...1 TO
LOCALLY 2 FEET OF WET HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER MT AREAS...THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY...THE WET MT VALLEY AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE. WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 6000
FEET...WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA...WITH 1 TO 4
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CITY...MAKING FOR A MESSY FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING IN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THE LATEST NAM IS INDICATING CAPES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
BACA COUNTY. THIS...ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR...WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS THE THETA-E AXIS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES.  AT ANY RATE...THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY
FRI...THEN CRAWLS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR
THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON FRI...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTH...ALLOWING LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME INCREASING W-NW OVERNIGHT. RAIN/SNOW LINE AROUND 6000
FEET FRI MORNING WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARD TO ABOUT 7000 FEET DURING
THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND PRECIP INTENSITY
DECREASES...WITH A SLUSHY FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS
COLORADO SPRINGS BEFORE SWITCH BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OCCURS AROUND MIDDAY. UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM CANON CITY
WESTWARD THROUGH SALIDA AND UP TO BUENA VISTA COULD ALSO SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW FRI MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK TO RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL...WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
MOST MOUNTAINS/PALMER DIVIDE AND UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY LOOK ON
TRACK...WITH A SHARP DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 6-7K FEET. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST ZONES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL...WHICH SHOULD HOLD STORM
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DOWN. STILL APPEARS TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THU-FRI WILL EXCEED AN INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH POCKETS OF UP
TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOL FRI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 30S/40S ACROSS THE AREA.

STILL APPEARS WE`LL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS FIRST UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE
SECONDARY ENERGY CARVES OUT A NEW LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. TOUGH TO
RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE...SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MENTION IN MOST ZONES THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AS UPPER
LOW OVER AZ SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPWARD
MOTION STRENGTHENS AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TURNING EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
SHOULD THUS SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNING TO MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS
FROM OVERNIGHT SAT INTO AT LEAST MON MORNING. MAY NEED A NEW ROUND
OF HIGHLIGHTS FOR SNOW FOR HIGHER MOUNTAINS...THOUGH IN GENERAL
28/00Z MODELS HAVE LESS PRECIP AND A WEAKER LOW THAN SOLUTIONS
FROM 24 HRS AGO. WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH AND TEMPS COOL SUN
INTO MON...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF MON EVENING AS LOW WALLOWS
BACK NORTH AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS TUE AND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THOUGH WITH FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TO FIRE AT LEAST ISOLATED WEAK
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUE INTO THU.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES TUE...THEN PUSH
TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS WED/THU AS HEIGHT FINALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

MAJOR SPRING STORM WILL IMPACT FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
BOTH SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET AND MAINLY RAIN BELOW. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE MOST INTENSE AND
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PRIMARILY IMPACTING LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND
PROWERS COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...HEAVY SNOW AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. KALS CAN EXPECT TO BE IN
AND OUT OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH. KCOS...KPUB TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO BE IN
AND OUT OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS BECOMING DOMINANT AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ058>061-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281142 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
542 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF STRONG
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL
SATELLITE AND RADARS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT WAA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WITH ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A
BETTER COVERAGE OF ECHOES SPREADING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS
TIME.

LATEST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DIG
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND EASTERN
MTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AOA 9000 FT...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO WARNINGS.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...1 TO LOCALLY 2
FEET OF WET HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MTS...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
FOR THE LOWER MT AREAS...THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...THE WET
MT VALLEY AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 6000 FEET...WILL LIKELY SEE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN
THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY...MAKING FOR A MESSY
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES LATER
TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING IN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THE LATEST NAM IS INDICATING CAPES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
BACA COUNTY. THIS...ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR...WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS THE THETA-E AXIS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES.  AT ANY RATE...THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY
FRI...THEN CRAWLS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR
THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON FRI...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTH...ALLOWING LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME INCREASING W-NW OVERNIGHT. RAIN/SNOW LINE AROUND 6000
FEET FRI MORNING WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARD TO ABOUT 7000 FEET DURING
THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND PRECIP INTENSITY
DECREASES...WITH A SLUSHY FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS
COLORADO SPRINGS BEFORE SWITCH BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OCCURS AROUND MIDDAY. UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM CANON CITY
WESTWARD THROUGH SALIDA AND UP TO BUENA VISTA COULD ALSO SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW FRI MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK TO RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL...WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
MOST MOUNTAINS/PALMER DIVIDE AND UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY LOOK ON
TRACK...WITH A SHARP DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 6-7K FEET. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST ZONES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL...WHICH SHOULD HOLD STORM
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DOWN. STILL APPEARS TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THU-FRI WILL EXCEED AN INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH POCKETS OF UP
TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOL FRI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 30S/40S ACROSS THE AREA.

STILL APPEARS WE`LL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS FIRST UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE
SECONDARY ENERGY CARVES OUT A NEW LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. TOUGH TO
RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE...SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MENTION IN MOST ZONES THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AS UPPER
LOW OVER AZ SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPWARD
MOTION STRENGTHENS AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TURNING EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
SHOULD THUS SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNING TO MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS
FROM OVERNIGHT SAT INTO AT LEAST MON MORNING. MAY NEED A NEW ROUND
OF HIGHLIGHTS FOR SNOW FOR HIGHER MOUNTAINS...THOUGH IN GENERAL
28/00Z MODELS HAVE LESS PRECIP AND A WEAKER LOW THAN SOLUTIONS
FROM 24 HRS AGO. WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH AND TEMPS COOL SUN
INTO MON...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF MON EVENING AS LOW WALLOWS
BACK NORTH AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS TUE AND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THOUGH WITH FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TO FIRE AT LEAST ISOLATED WEAK
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUE INTO THU.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES TUE...THEN PUSH
TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS WED/THU AS HEIGHT FINALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WAA WILL PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS AT ALS...COS AND PUB THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND COS AND PUB TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR COS INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY AS -RA MIXES WITH AND CHANGES OVER PUB

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ058>061-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281101
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
501 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF STRONG
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL
SATELLITE AND RADARS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT WAA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WITH ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A
BETTER COVERAGE OF ECHOES SPREADING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS
TIME.

LATEST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DIG
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND EASTERN
MTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AOA 9000 FT...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE
UPGRADED MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO WARNINGS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...1 TO LOCALLY 2 FEET OF WET
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MTS...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE
LOWER MT AREAS...THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...THE WET MT
VALLEY AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 6000 WINTER STORM WARNINGS GO INTO
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON...WITH WINTER STORM
WARNINGS GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO COUNTY) AT 6 PM. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SNOW ACCUMS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA...1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY...MAKING FOR A MESSY FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES LATER TONIGHT...WITH
THE GREATEST ACCUMS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING IN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THE LATEST NAM IS INDICATING CAPES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
BACA COUNTY. THIS...ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR...WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS THE THETA-E AXIS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES.  AT ANY RATE...THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY
FRI...THEN CRAWLS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR
THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON FRI...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTH...ALLOWING LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME INCREASING W-NW OVERNIGHT. RAIN/SNOW LINE AROUND 6000
FEET FRI MORNING WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARD TO ABOUT 7000 FEET DURING
THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND PRECIP INTENSITY
DECREASES...WITH A SLUSHY FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS
COLORADO SPRINGS BEFORE SWITCH BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OCCURS AROUND MIDDAY. UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM CANON CITY
WESTWARD THROUGH SALIDA AND UP TO BUENA VISTA COULD ALSO SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW FRI MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK TO RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL...WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
MOST MOUNTAINS/PALMER DIVIDE AND UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY LOOK ON
TRACK...WITH A SHARP DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 6-7K FEET. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST ZONES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL...WHICH SHOULD HOLD STORM
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DOWN. STILL APPEARS TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THU-FRI WILL EXCEED AN INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH POCKETS OF UP
TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOL FRI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 30S/40S ACROSS THE AREA.

STILL APPEARS WE`LL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS FIRST UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE
SECONDARY ENERGY CARVES OUT A NEW LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. TOUGH TO
RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE...SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MENTION IN MOST ZONES THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AS UPPER
LOW OVER AZ SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPWARD
MOTION STRENGTHENS AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TURNING EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
SHOULD THUS SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNING TO MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS
FROM OVERNIGHT SAT INTO AT LEAST MON MORNING. MAY NEED A NEW ROUND
OF HIGHLIGHTS FOR SNOW FOR HIGHER MOUNTAINS...THOUGH IN GENERAL
28/00Z MODELS HAVE LESS PRECIP AND A WEAKER LOW THAN SOLUTIONS
FROM 24 HRS AGO. WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH AND TEMPS COOL SUN
INTO MON...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF MON EVENING AS LOW WALLOWS
BACK NORTH AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS TUE AND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THOUGH WITH FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TO FIRE AT LEAST ISOLATED WEAK
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUE INTO THU.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES TUE...THEN PUSH
TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS WED/THU AS HEIGHT FINALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WAA WILL PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS AT ALS...COS AND PUB THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND COS AND PUB TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR COS INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY AS -RA MIXES WITH AND CHANGES OVER PUB

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ058>061-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280524
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

SEVERAL UPDATES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...TRENDED FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS. RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER THE CENTRAL...THROUGH
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. MOST
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN ELEVATED RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR HAIL TO
NEAR ONE INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ELSEWHERE...RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE OTHER FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO ADD
ZONE 62...THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY...TO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH. THIS AREA WILL SEE UPSLOPE FLOW UP THE ARKANSAS
RIVER/BIG HORN SHEEP CANYON WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT COOLER...SO DROPPED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES. GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH WARMING WITH
MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS.

SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE RAMPART RANGE...WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET WITH ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6000 AND
9000 FEET SEEING 6 TO 12 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

...SOME SNOW TONIGHT...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND RAIN) STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER S CALIF AND WAS MOVING IN A E-
SE DIRECTION. LOCALLY...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CO
WEST SLOPE AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE SHOWERS WERE DUE
PRIMARILY TO REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION ARE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE MODEST WITH READING IN THE
LOW 60S OVER FAR E CLO WHILE 50S WERE NOTED IN THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. 40S AND 50S WERE NOTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH 30S MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.

TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN IS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PARTS OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS IS
GOING TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. HRRR HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION
SINCE I WALKED IN THE DOOR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ITS QPF VALUES MAY
BE A BIT HIGH...BELIEVE THIS LOCATION IS REASONABLE AS LLVL UPSLOPE
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURES START TO FALL AND SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
WINDS (~700 MB INCREASE). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR IN TELLER COUNTY AND 1-3" COULD FALL ON GRASSY AREAS IN
N EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT THE ROADS BECOMING SLICK IN SOME
PLACES AS IT HAS BEEN COOL AND THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. LIKEWISE...WE MAY SEE A "NUISANCE " WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
CALIF STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND MOISTURE ALOFT
INCREASES. 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THURSDAY...

BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF LAS
VEGAS. MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND SNOW
AND VALLEY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE CENTER
OF THE MID LVL LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS AND
DEEP S- SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. PRECIP WILL START TO
BECOME HEAVIER ACROSS THE S MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A THETA-E AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE OKLA PANHANDLE. THIS THETA-E AXIS WILL
INCREASE THE CAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WINTER STORM WATCHES GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON
TOMORROW...WITH WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO
COUNTY) AT 6 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

ACTIVE LONGER PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT TIMES
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION/HIGHER TERRAIN TIGHT GRADIENT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

RECENT LONGER RANGE PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS
COLORADO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
WET CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

HAVE ISSUED/ADJUSTED/EXPANDED EARLIER WINTER STORM WATCH TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST PROJECTED TRACK/IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A VERY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT EXPECTED
AROUND 7000 FEET...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

ALSO...SOME STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FRIDAY.

THEN...NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT CLOSED
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 00Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 00Z MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES) ARE ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LOWER GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

INCOMING SYSTEM IS ALREADY SPREADING BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO WITH -SHRA OR VCSH POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AT KCOS INTO
THE MVFR THEN IFR CATEGORY BY 12Z. KPUB WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY 12Z.  THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN -SHRA FOR THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
KCOS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS -RA MIXES WITH AND CHANGES OVER THE
-SN AROUND 06Z FRI. KCOS COULD SEE SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. KPUB WILL STAY
AS RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT. KALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR WITH -TSRA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MVFR TO IFR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH -SHSN. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280524
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

SEVERAL UPDATES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...TRENDED FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS. RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER THE CENTRAL...THROUGH
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. MOST
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN ELEVATED RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR HAIL TO
NEAR ONE INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ELSEWHERE...RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE OTHER FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO ADD
ZONE 62...THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY...TO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH. THIS AREA WILL SEE UPSLOPE FLOW UP THE ARKANSAS
RIVER/BIG HORN SHEEP CANYON WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT COOLER...SO DROPPED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES. GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH WARMING WITH
MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS.

SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE RAMPART RANGE...WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET WITH ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6000 AND
9000 FEET SEEING 6 TO 12 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

...SOME SNOW TONIGHT...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND RAIN) STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER S CALIF AND WAS MOVING IN A E-
SE DIRECTION. LOCALLY...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CO
WEST SLOPE AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE SHOWERS WERE DUE
PRIMARILY TO REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION ARE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE MODEST WITH READING IN THE
LOW 60S OVER FAR E CLO WHILE 50S WERE NOTED IN THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. 40S AND 50S WERE NOTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH 30S MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.

TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN IS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PARTS OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS IS
GOING TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. HRRR HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION
SINCE I WALKED IN THE DOOR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ITS QPF VALUES MAY
BE A BIT HIGH...BELIEVE THIS LOCATION IS REASONABLE AS LLVL UPSLOPE
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURES START TO FALL AND SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
WINDS (~700 MB INCREASE). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR IN TELLER COUNTY AND 1-3" COULD FALL ON GRASSY AREAS IN
N EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT THE ROADS BECOMING SLICK IN SOME
PLACES AS IT HAS BEEN COOL AND THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. LIKEWISE...WE MAY SEE A "NUISANCE " WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
CALIF STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND MOISTURE ALOFT
INCREASES. 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THURSDAY...

BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF LAS
VEGAS. MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND SNOW
AND VALLEY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE CENTER
OF THE MID LVL LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS AND
DEEP S- SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. PRECIP WILL START TO
BECOME HEAVIER ACROSS THE S MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A THETA-E AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE OKLA PANHANDLE. THIS THETA-E AXIS WILL
INCREASE THE CAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WINTER STORM WATCHES GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON
TOMORROW...WITH WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO
COUNTY) AT 6 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

ACTIVE LONGER PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT TIMES
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION/HIGHER TERRAIN TIGHT GRADIENT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

RECENT LONGER RANGE PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS
COLORADO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
WET CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

HAVE ISSUED/ADJUSTED/EXPANDED EARLIER WINTER STORM WATCH TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST PROJECTED TRACK/IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A VERY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT EXPECTED
AROUND 7000 FEET...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

ALSO...SOME STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FRIDAY.

THEN...NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT CLOSED
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 00Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 00Z MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES) ARE ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LOWER GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

INCOMING SYSTEM IS ALREADY SPREADING BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO WITH -SHRA OR VCSH POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AT KCOS INTO
THE MVFR THEN IFR CATEGORY BY 12Z. KPUB WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY 12Z.  THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN -SHRA FOR THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
KCOS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS -RA MIXES WITH AND CHANGES OVER THE
-SN AROUND 06Z FRI. KCOS COULD SEE SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. KPUB WILL STAY
AS RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT. KALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR WITH -TSRA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MVFR TO IFR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH -SHSN. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280331
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
931 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

SEVERAL UPDATES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...TRENDED FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS. RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER THE CENTRAL...THROUGH
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. MOST
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN ELEVATED RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR HAIL TO
NEAR ONE INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ELSEWHERE...RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE OTHER FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO ADD
ZONE 62...THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY...TO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH. THIS AREA WILL SEE UPSLOPE FLOW UP THE ARKANSAS
RIVER/BIG HORN SHEEP CANYON WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT COOLER...SO DROPPED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES. GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH WARMING WITH
MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS.

SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE RAMPART RANGE...WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET WITH ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6000 AND
9000 FEET SEEING 6 TO 12 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

...SOME SNOW TONIGHT...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND RAIN) STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER S CALIF AND WAS MOVING IN A E-
SE DIRECTION. LOCALLY...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CO
WEST SLOPE AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE SHOWERS WERE DUE
PRIMARILY TO REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION ARE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE MODEST WITH READING IN THE
LOW 60S OVER FAR E CLO WHILE 50S WERE NOTED IN THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. 40S AND 50S WERE NOTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH 30S MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.

TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN IS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PARTS OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS IS
GOING TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. HRRR HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION
SINCE I WALKED IN THE DOOR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ITS QPF VALUES MAY
BE A BIT HIGH...BELIEVE THIS LOCATION IS REASONABLE AS LLVL UPSLOPE
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURES START TO FALL AND SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
WINDS (~700 MB INCREASE). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR IN TELLER COUNTY AND 1-3" COULD FALL ON GRASSY AREAS IN
N EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT THE ROADS BECOMING SLICK IN SOME
PLACES AS IT HAS BEEN COOL AND THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. LIKEWISE...WE MAY SEE A "NUISANCE " WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
CALIF STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND MOISTURE ALOFT
INCREASES. 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THURSDAY...

BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF LAS
VEGAS. MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND SNOW
AND VALLEY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE CENTER
OF THE MID LVL LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS AND
DEEP S- SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. PRECIP WILL START TO
BECOME HEAVIER ACROSS THE S MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A THETA-E AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE OKLA PANHANDLE. THIS THETA-E AXIS WILL
INCREASE THE CAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WINTER STORM WATCHES GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON
TOMORROW...WITH WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO
COUNTY) AT 6 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

ACTIVE LONGER PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT TIMES
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION/HIGHER TERRAIN TIGHT GRADIENT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

RECENT LONGER RANGE PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS
COLORADO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
WET CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

HAVE ISSUED/ADJUSTED/EXPANDED EARLIER WINTER STORM WATCH TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST PROJECTED TRACK/IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A VERY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT EXPECTED
AROUND 7000 FEET...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

ALSO...SOME STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FRIDAY.

THEN...NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT CLOSED
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 00Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 00Z MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES) ARE ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LOWER GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS PERIOD.

KCOS...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER KCOS LATER THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO OCCUR. HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SHOWERY PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS PRECIP MAY SLACKEN UP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED  TO REDEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BUT MAY TURN
OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MOST IF NOT ALL
ACCUMULATIONS  WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS...BUT SOME SLUSH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT...ESPECIALLY IF LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS
DEVELOP.

MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TOMORROW AS KCOS DUE TO THE MOIST GUSTY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP. PRECIP 9RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX) WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KPUB

SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW
EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LOWER AND PRECIP
CHANCES (RAIN) WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
IFR LIKELY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW. GUSTY SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KALS

SOME ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24H PERIOD...BUT
ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 272151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
351 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

...SOME SNOW TONIGHT...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND RAIN) STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER S CALIF AND WAS MOVING IN A E-
SE DIRECTION. LOCALLY...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CO
WEST SLOPE AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE SHOWERS WERE DUE
PRIMARILY TO REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION ARE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE MODEST WITH READING IN THE
LOW 60S OVER FAR E CLO WHILE 50S WERE NOTED IN THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. 40S AND 50S WERE NOTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH 30S MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.

TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN IS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PARTS OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS IS
GOING TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. HRRR HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION
SINCE I WALKED IN THE DOOR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ITS QPF VALUES MAY
BE A BIT HIGH...BELIEVE THIS LOCATION IS REASONABLE AS LLVL UPSLOPE
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURES START TO FALL AND SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
WINDS (~700 MB INCREASE). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR IN TELLER COUNTY AND 1-3" COULD FALL ON GRASSY AREAS IN
N EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT THE ROADS BECOMING SLICK IN SOME
PLACES AS IT HAS BEEN COOL AND THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. LIKEWISE...WE MAY SEE A "NUISANCE " WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
CALIF STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND MOISTURE ALOFT
INCREASES. 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THURSDAY...

BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF LAS
VEGAS. MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND SNOW
AND VALLEY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE CENTER
OF THE MID LVL LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS AND
DEEP S- SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. PRECIP WILL START TO
BECOME HEAVIER ACROSS THE S MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A THETA-E AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE OKLA PANHANDLE. THIS THETA-E AXIS WILL
INCREASE THE CAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WINTER STORM WATCHES GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON
TOMORROW...WITH WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO
COUNTY) AT 6 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

ACTIVE LONGER PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT TIMES
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION/HIGHER TERRAIN TIGHT GRADIENT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

RECENT LONGER RANGE PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS
COLORADO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
WET CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

HAVE ISSUED/ADJUSTED/EXPANDED EARLIER WINTER STORM WATCH TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST PROJECTED TRACK/IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A VERY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT EXPECTED
AROUND 7000 FEET...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

ALSO...SOME STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FRIDAY.

THEN...NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT CLOSED
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 00Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 00Z MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES) ARE ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LOWER GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS PERIOD.

KCOS...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER KCOS LATER THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO OCCUR. HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SHOWERY PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS PRECIP MAY SLACKEN UP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED  TO REDEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BUT MAY TURN
OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MOST IF NOT ALL
ACCUMULATIONS  WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS...BUT SOME SLUSH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT...ESPECIALLY IF LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS
DEVELOP.

MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TOMORROW AS KCOS DUE TO THE MOIST GUSTY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP. PRECIP 9RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX) WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KPUB

SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW
EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LOWER AND PRECIP
CHANCES (RAIN) WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
IFR LIKELY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW. GUSTY SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KALS

SOME ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24H PERIOD...BUT
ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ063-072-074-076>079-084.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 271742
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATED TO EXPIRE FROST ADVISORY WITH TEMPS WARNING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING A
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF
EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY DIGGING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST
COAST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTING LOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
WITH SOME LIGHT ECHOES ALSO DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO
AT THIS TIME.  SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING STRATUS ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHTS PASSING FRONT.

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH...AND WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S...COULD
STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF FROST...AND WILL LEAVE CURRENT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 8 AM.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS THE PAC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CONTDVD...AS
MOISTURE AND UVV SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM. COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TODAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LOW NEAR SRN NV EARLY THU MORNING WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS FRI MORNING...THEN TRACK INTO NERN CO OVERNIGHT
FRI INTO EARLY SAT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
TRACK...WITH PERHAPS ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD WOBBLE NOTED IN FCSTS
FROM THE PAST 36 HRS OR SO. AS SYSTEM APPROACHES...SHOULD SEE
PRECIP INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS THU...WITH
SNOW LEVELS STARING OUT FAIRLY HIGH (10K FEET) AS 700 MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM PLUS 2C OVER THE SW MTS TO AROUND MINUS 2C OVER TELLER
COUNTY/PIKES PEAK. SURFACE CAPES OF 2OO-400 J/KG PLUS STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW TSRA TO FORM THU
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY THU EVENING...VERY
STRONG UPWARD MOTION OVERSPREADS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH VIGOROUS MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DYNAMIC LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. 700 MB
TEMPS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COOL TO OC TO MINUS 2C THU
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD DRAG THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO 8-9K FEET BY THU
MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES.
FATHER EAST...STRONG WARM ADVECTION PUSHES 700 MB TEMPS SLOWLY
UPWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9K FEET...THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 7K FEET
(INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON PASS)...ESPECIALLY AS HEAVY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE ON
FRI AS LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NE ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS BY FRI EVENING AS HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE AN INCH OR MORE OF
PRECIP IN THE THU-FRI PERIOD...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMS OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE 10K FEET WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET...WITH PIKES PEAK
ESPECIALLY HARD HIT.

STILL APPEARS WE`LL HAVE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SAT EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW
ROUGHLY AGREE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN SUN...WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NRN AZ BY SUN EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS THEN HAD THE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NM...WHILE 00Z/27 RUNS NOW HAVE THE SYSTEM WALLOWING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN INTO TUE...WITH SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES ROTATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUE...AND WITH 700 MB TEMPS A FEW DEGC COOLER THAN
THU/FRI SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS COULD BE LOWER OVER MANY MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO WON`T HIT THIS SCENARIO TOO HARD YET...BUT
BEARS WATCHING. NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION ULTIMATELY
VERIFIES...BOTTOM LINE IS SUN-TUE PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL
AND LIKELY WET...BEFORE SLOW DRYING/WARMING TREND BEGINS WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITE. THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE AT KCOS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT KPUB AND KALS.
LATER THIS EVENING...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KCOS AS WINDS TAKE ON AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...AND I EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT KCOS INTO
TOMORROW AS DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PIKES PEAK(KCOS)
REGION. LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT KALS AND KPUB TOMORROW
LATE MORNING.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 271402
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
802 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATED TO EXPIRE FROST ADVISORY WITH TEMPS WARNING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING A
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF
EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY DIGGING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST
COAST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTING LOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
WITH SOME LIGHT ECHOES ALSO DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO
AT THIS TIME.  SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING STRATUS ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHTS PASSING FRONT.

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH...AND WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S...COULD
STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF FROST...AND WILL LEAVE CURRENT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 8 AM.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS THE PAC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CONTDVD...AS
MOISTURE AND UVV SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM. COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TODAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LOW NEAR SRN NV EARLY THU MORNING WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS FRI MORNING...THEN TRACK INTO NERN CO OVERNIGHT
FRI INTO EARLY SAT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
TRACK...WITH PERHAPS ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD WOBBLE NOTED IN FCSTS
FROM THE PAST 36 HRS OR SO. AS SYSTEM APPROACHES...SHOULD SEE
PRECIP INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS THU...WITH
SNOW LEVELS STARING OUT FAIRLY HIGH (10K FEET) AS 700 MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM PLUS 2C OVER THE SW MTS TO AROUND MINUS 2C OVER TELLER
COUNTY/PIKES PEAK. SURFACE CAPES OF 2OO-400 J/KG PLUS STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW TSRA TO FORM THU
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY THU EVENING...VERY
STRONG UPWARD MOTION OVERSPREADS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH VIGOROUS MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DYNAMIC LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. 700 MB
TEMPS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COOL TO OC TO MINUS 2C THU
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD DRAG THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO 8-9K FEET BY THU
MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES.
FATHER EAST...STRONG WARM ADVECTION PUSHES 700 MB TEMPS SLOWLY
UPWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9K FEET...THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 7K FEET
(INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON PASS)...ESPECIALLY AS HEAVY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE ON
FRI AS LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NE ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS BY FRI EVENING AS HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE AN INCH OR MORE OF
PRECIP IN THE THU-FRI PERIOD...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMS OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE 10K FEET WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET...WITH PIKES PEAK
ESPECIALLY HARD HIT.

STILL APPEARS WE`LL HAVE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SAT EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW
ROUGHLY AGREE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN SUN...WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NRN AZ BY SUN EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS THEN HAD THE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NM...WHILE 00Z/27 RUNS NOW HAVE THE SYSTEM WALLOWING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN INTO TUE...WITH SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES ROTATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUE...AND WITH 700 MB TEMPS A FEW DEGC COOLER THAN
THU/FRI SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS COULD BE LOWER OVER MANY MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO WON`T HIT THIS SCENARIO TOO HARD YET...BUT
BEARS WATCHING. NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION ULTIMATELY
VERIFIES...BOTTOM LINE IS SUN-TUE PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL
AND LIKELY WET...BEFORE SLOW DRYING/WARMING TREND BEGINS WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHTS PASSING FRONT HAS
HELPED TO DEVELOP MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. MVFR STRATUS AT COS AND
PUB EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 12Z-14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.  ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY COME INTO THE VC OF COS AND ALS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 271049
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
449 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING A
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF
EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY DIGGING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST
COAST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTING LOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
WITH SOME LIGHT ECHOES ALSO DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO
AT THIS TIME.  SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING STRATUS ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHTS PASSING FRONT.

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH...AND WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S...COULD
STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF FROST...AND WILL LEAVE CURRENT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 8 AM.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS THE PAC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CONTDVD...AS
MOISTURE AND UVV SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM. COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TODAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LOW NEAR SRN NV EARLY THU MORNING WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS FRI MORNING...THEN TRACK INTO NERN CO OVERNIGHT
FRI INTO EARLY SAT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
TRACK...WITH PERHAPS ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD WOBBLE NOTED IN FCSTS
FROM THE PAST 36 HRS OR SO. AS SYSTEM APPROACHES...SHOULD SEE
PRECIP INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS THU...WITH
SNOW LEVELS STARING OUT FAIRLY HIGH (10K FEET) AS 700 MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM PLUS 2C OVER THE SW MTS TO AROUND MINUS 2C OVER TELLER
COUNTY/PIKES PEAK. SURFACE CAPES OF 2OO-400 J/KG PLUS STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW TSRA TO FORM THU
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY THU EVENING...VERY
STRONG UPWARD MOTION OVERSPREADS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH VIGOROUS MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DYNAMIC LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. 700 MB
TEMPS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COOL TO OC TO MINUS 2C THU
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD DRAG THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO 8-9K FEET BY THU
MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES.
FATHER EAST...STRONG WARM ADVECTION PUSHES 700 MB TEMPS SLOWLY
UPWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9K FEET...THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 7K FEET
(INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON PASS)...ESPECIALLY AS HEAVY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE ON
FRI AS LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NE ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS BY FRI EVENING AS HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE AN INCH OR MORE OF
PRECIP IN THE THU-FRI PERIOD...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMS OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE 10K FEET WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET...WITH PIKES PEAK
ESPECIALLY HARD HIT.

STILL APPEARS WE`LL HAVE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SAT EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW
ROUGHLY AGREE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN SUN...WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NRN AZ BY SUN EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS THEN HAD THE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NM...WHILE 00Z/27 RUNS NOW HAVE THE SYSTEM WALLOWING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN INTO TUE...WITH SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES ROTATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUE...AND WITH 700 MB TEMPS A FEW DEGC COOLER THAN
THU/FRI SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS COULD BE LOWER OVER MANY MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO WON`T HIT THIS SCENARIO TOO HARD YET...BUT
BEARS WATCHING. NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION ULTIMATELY
VERIFIES...BOTTOM LINE IS SUN-TUE PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL
AND LIKELY WET...BEFORE SLOW DRYING/WARMING TREND BEGINS WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHTS PASSING FRONT HAS
HELPED TO DEVELOP MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. MVFR STRATUS AT COS AND
PUB EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 12Z-14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.  ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY COME INTO THE VC OF COS AND ALS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ084.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 270513
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1113 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

...HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK AREA. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK
TO BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SPRING TIME SNOW TO THE PEAKS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
FOR NOW THIS WATCH WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...ARE LIKELY OVERDOING CONVECTIVE
QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MTS...BUT TRACK AND OVERALL
QPF POTENTIAL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS...A
FOOT OR MORE...FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LESS CERTAIN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION SNOW. COLDER EVENT STILL APPEARS
TO BE THE SECOND SYSTEM...AND THAT WILL BE THE ONE MORE LIKELY
TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...WILL LIKELY NEED SOME WINTER HEADLINES FOR
SOME OF THE LOWER ZONES GENERALLY ABOVE 6500 FEET. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO SPARK ISOLATED MT CONVECTION. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WAS EDGING TO THE NORTH INTO WYOMING. STORMS WITH
SNOW WERE OCCURRING NORTH OF MONUMENT...WHILE 88D RADAR CLEARLY
SHOWED THE SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY...BEING
HELD IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING BY SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY AND THE PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...BUT COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO SEEP IN.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE AREA OF LOW PRESS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
EDGE TO THE NORTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PIVOTING TO THE EAST.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS WY AND NE
OVERNIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO THE EAST WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING THEN
MOVING IN THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH 03Z-
04Z. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS
EL PASO COUNTY...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE JUST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST. WITH THE EXPECTED COLDER AIR...HIGHER RH
AND POTENTIAL FOR DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAD TO GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY FROM 10 PM THROUGH 8 AM.
OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL EBB AND SHOULD SHUT OFF FOR ALL LOCATIONS
SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVER THE MTS...LOOK
FOR TOTAL NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS FORECAST TO KEEP PCPN RESTRICTED
TO THE MTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN BY MIDDAY A BIT MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD TO ALL OF THE MTS AS WELL AS THE
SLV AND I25 CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

...WEATHER TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD...WITH
SNOW...RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AND SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES REVOLVE AROUND IT. THIS WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS
(AND POSSIBLY LOWER ELEVATIONS)...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE CO/NM-OK BORDER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER CO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED OVER S CALIF AT THIS TIME
AND IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION WED NITE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS S 700
MB FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWER TO CONTINUE
OVER THE MTS WED NITE AND MOVE NORTH. TOWARDS SUNRISE...ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE S CALIF SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE CONTDVD AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER TRRN WED NITE.

THURSDAY...

S CALIF SHORT WAVE WILL CLOSE OFF AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALL AREAS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS/S MTN INTERFACE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
OVER THE PLAINS...AND MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN PLACES. IN
ADDITION...MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK MAY BE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIE ON THE RATON
MESA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE IN
PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE...SO THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
OF ONE OR TWO ROTATING STORMS DEVELOPING.

SNOW LEVELS ALONG THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL DROP DOWN TO ~6000
FEET BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE (LIKELY)
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. THIS SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT GIVEN THAT TREES ARE
STARTING TO LEAF-OUT...AND THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY CAUSE LIMBS TO
BREAK OFF. FOR NOW I HAVE 0.5-1.0" OF LIQUID QPF OVER NEARLY ALL
OF EL PASO COUNTY...AND QUITE A BIT OF THIS MAY BE
SNOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.

WITHOUT SAYING...HEAVY WET SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF "LIQUID CEMENT"
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SANGRES AND WET MTNS.

TRAVEL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE MTNS THU
NIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST WILL BE OVER THE S MTNS.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE SNOW THU NIGHT. RELATIVELY WARMER
AIR MAY GET INTO THE VALLEY AND THIS MAY LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE VALLEY FLOOR.

FRIDAY...

LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT ON
TRACK...WITH THE EC SHOWING A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WHILE THE GFS MOVES THINGS A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND
THIS WOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE S PART OF THE FCST
AREA.

IF A NORTHERN TRACK DOES EVOLVE...THEN THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...OVER THE RATON MESA REGION
FRI AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH.

WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK

WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL DROP
INTO  THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS
ALTHOUGH TRACKS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MTN AND
VALLEY SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN.

WE SHOULD START TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SUMMARY...

A LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AND N EL
PASO COUNTY THU NITE INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT
DUE TO THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW. IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE
FUTURE TO PREDICT EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE PROJECTED QPF
AND TEMPS...IT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY (BOTH IS DEPTH AND WEIGHT).

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY LATE FRI AFTERNOON ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.

WIDESPREAD RAIN COULD OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS THU NITE INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTAL QPF
PREDICTED BY HPC DURING THE NEXT ~7 DAYS OVER MOST OF THE REGION
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.5" TO 4.0". THE HEAVIEST WILL BE ALONG THE
MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE.

MORE STEADY RAIN AND SNOW COULD OCCUR SUN NITE INTO MONDAY.

LOTS OF CLOUDS AND VERY COOL WEATHER WILL BE WITH US DURING THIS
ENTIRE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. FREEZING TEMPS MAY OCCUR NEARLY
EVERY NIGHT ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTDVD OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TOWARDS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP IFR TO LIFR STRATUS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS UNTIL 10Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY COME INTO THE VC OF KCOS AND
KALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ084.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 270513
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1113 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

...HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK AREA. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK
TO BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SPRING TIME SNOW TO THE PEAKS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
FOR NOW THIS WATCH WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...ARE LIKELY OVERDOING CONVECTIVE
QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MTS...BUT TRACK AND OVERALL
QPF POTENTIAL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS...A
FOOT OR MORE...FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LESS CERTAIN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION SNOW. COLDER EVENT STILL APPEARS
TO BE THE SECOND SYSTEM...AND THAT WILL BE THE ONE MORE LIKELY
TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...WILL LIKELY NEED SOME WINTER HEADLINES FOR
SOME OF THE LOWER ZONES GENERALLY ABOVE 6500 FEET. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO SPARK ISOLATED MT CONVECTION. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WAS EDGING TO THE NORTH INTO WYOMING. STORMS WITH
SNOW WERE OCCURRING NORTH OF MONUMENT...WHILE 88D RADAR CLEARLY
SHOWED THE SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY...BEING
HELD IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING BY SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY AND THE PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...BUT COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO SEEP IN.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE AREA OF LOW PRESS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
EDGE TO THE NORTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PIVOTING TO THE EAST.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS WY AND NE
OVERNIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO THE EAST WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING THEN
MOVING IN THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH 03Z-
04Z. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS
EL PASO COUNTY...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE JUST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST. WITH THE EXPECTED COLDER AIR...HIGHER RH
AND POTENTIAL FOR DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAD TO GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY FROM 10 PM THROUGH 8 AM.
OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL EBB AND SHOULD SHUT OFF FOR ALL LOCATIONS
SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVER THE MTS...LOOK
FOR TOTAL NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS FORECAST TO KEEP PCPN RESTRICTED
TO THE MTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN BY MIDDAY A BIT MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD TO ALL OF THE MTS AS WELL AS THE
SLV AND I25 CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

...WEATHER TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD...WITH
SNOW...RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AND SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES REVOLVE AROUND IT. THIS WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS
(AND POSSIBLY LOWER ELEVATIONS)...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE CO/NM-OK BORDER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER CO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED OVER S CALIF AT THIS TIME
AND IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION WED NITE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS S 700
MB FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWER TO CONTINUE
OVER THE MTS WED NITE AND MOVE NORTH. TOWARDS SUNRISE...ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE S CALIF SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE CONTDVD AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER TRRN WED NITE.

THURSDAY...

S CALIF SHORT WAVE WILL CLOSE OFF AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALL AREAS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS/S MTN INTERFACE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
OVER THE PLAINS...AND MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN PLACES. IN
ADDITION...MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK MAY BE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIE ON THE RATON
MESA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE IN
PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE...SO THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
OF ONE OR TWO ROTATING STORMS DEVELOPING.

SNOW LEVELS ALONG THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL DROP DOWN TO ~6000
FEET BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE (LIKELY)
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. THIS SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT GIVEN THAT TREES ARE
STARTING TO LEAF-OUT...AND THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY CAUSE LIMBS TO
BREAK OFF. FOR NOW I HAVE 0.5-1.0" OF LIQUID QPF OVER NEARLY ALL
OF EL PASO COUNTY...AND QUITE A BIT OF THIS MAY BE
SNOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.

WITHOUT SAYING...HEAVY WET SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF "LIQUID CEMENT"
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SANGRES AND WET MTNS.

TRAVEL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE MTNS THU
NIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST WILL BE OVER THE S MTNS.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE SNOW THU NIGHT. RELATIVELY WARMER
AIR MAY GET INTO THE VALLEY AND THIS MAY LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE VALLEY FLOOR.

FRIDAY...

LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT ON
TRACK...WITH THE EC SHOWING A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WHILE THE GFS MOVES THINGS A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND
THIS WOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE S PART OF THE FCST
AREA.

IF A NORTHERN TRACK DOES EVOLVE...THEN THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...OVER THE RATON MESA REGION
FRI AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH.

WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK

WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL DROP
INTO  THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS
ALTHOUGH TRACKS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MTN AND
VALLEY SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN.

WE SHOULD START TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SUMMARY...

A LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AND N EL
PASO COUNTY THU NITE INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT
DUE TO THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW. IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE
FUTURE TO PREDICT EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE PROJECTED QPF
AND TEMPS...IT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY (BOTH IS DEPTH AND WEIGHT).

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY LATE FRI AFTERNOON ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.

WIDESPREAD RAIN COULD OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS THU NITE INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTAL QPF
PREDICTED BY HPC DURING THE NEXT ~7 DAYS OVER MOST OF THE REGION
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.5" TO 4.0". THE HEAVIEST WILL BE ALONG THE
MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE.

MORE STEADY RAIN AND SNOW COULD OCCUR SUN NITE INTO MONDAY.

LOTS OF CLOUDS AND VERY COOL WEATHER WILL BE WITH US DURING THIS
ENTIRE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. FREEZING TEMPS MAY OCCUR NEARLY
EVERY NIGHT ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTDVD OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TOWARDS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP IFR TO LIFR STRATUS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS UNTIL 10Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY COME INTO THE VC OF KCOS AND
KALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ084.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 270302
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
902 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

...HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK AREA. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK
TO BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SPRING TIME SNOW TO THE PEAKS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
FOR NOW THIS WATCH WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...ARE LIKELY OVERDOING CONVECTIVE
QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MTS...BUT TRACK AND OVERALL
QPF POTENTIAL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS...A
FOOT OR MORE...FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LESS CERTAIN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION SNOW. COLDER EVENT STILL APPEARS
TO BE THE SECOND SYSTEM...AND THAT WILL BE THE ONE MORE LIKELY
TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...WILL LIKELY NEED SOME WINTER HEADLINES FOR
SOME OF THE LOWER ZONES GENERALLY ABOVE 6500 FEET. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO SPARK ISOLATED MT CONVECTION. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WAS EDGING TO THE NORTH INTO WYOMING. STORMS WITH
SNOW WERE OCCURRING NORTH OF MONUMENT...WHILE 88D RADAR CLEARLY
SHOWED THE SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY...BEING
HELD IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING BY SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY AND THE PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...BUT COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO SEEP IN.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE AREA OF LOW PRESS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
EDGE TO THE NORTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PIVOTING TO THE EAST.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS WY AND NE
OVERNIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO THE EAST WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING THEN
MOVING IN THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH 03Z-
04Z. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS
EL PASO COUNTY...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE JUST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST. WITH THE EXPECTED COLDER AIR...HIGHER RH
AND POTENTIAL FOR DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAD TO GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY FROM 10 PM THROUGH 8 AM.
OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL EBB AND SHOULD SHUT OFF FOR ALL LOCATIONS
SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVER THE MTS...LOOK
FOR TOTAL NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS FORECAST TO KEEP PCPN RESTRICTED
TO THE MTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN BY MIDDAY A BIT MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD TO ALL OF THE MTS AS WELL AS THE
SLV AND I25 CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

...WEATHER TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD...WITH
SNOW...RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AND SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES REVOLVE AROUND IT. THIS WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS
(AND POSSIBLY LOWER ELEVATIONS)...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE CO/NM-OK BORDER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER CO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED OVER S CALIF AT THIS TIME
AND IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION WED NITE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS S 700
MB FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWER TO CONTINUE
OVER THE MTS WED NITE AND MOVE NORTH. TOWARDS SUNRISE...ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE S CALIF SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE CONTDVD AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER TRRN WED NITE.

THURSDAY...

S CALIF SHORT WAVE WILL CLOSE OFF AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALL AREAS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS/S MTN INTERFACE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
OVER THE PLAINS...AND MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN PLACES. IN
ADDITION...MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK MAY BE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIE ON THE RATON
MESA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE IN
PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE...SO THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
OF ONE OR TWO ROTATING STORMS DEVELOPING.

SNOW LEVELS ALONG THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL DROP DOWN TO ~6000
FEET BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE (LIKELY)
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. THIS SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT GIVEN THAT TREES ARE
STARTING TO LEAF-OUT...AND THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY CAUSE LIMBS TO
BREAK OFF. FOR NOW I HAVE 0.5-1.0" OF LIQUID QPF OVER NEARLY ALL
OF EL PASO COUNTY...AND QUITE A BIT OF THIS MAY BE
SNOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.

WITHOUT SAYING...HEAVY WET SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF "LIQUID CEMENT"
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SANGRES AND WET MTNS.

TRAVEL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE MTNS THU
NIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST WILL BE OVER THE S MTNS.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE SNOW THU NIGHT. RELATIVELY WARMER
AIR MAY GET INTO THE VALLEY AND THIS MAY LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE VALLEY FLOOR.

FRIDAY...

LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT ON
TRACK...WITH THE EC SHOWING A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WHILE THE GFS MOVES THINGS A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND
THIS WOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE S PART OF THE FCST
AREA.

IF A NORTHERN TRACK DOES EVOLVE...THEN THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...OVER THE RATON MESA REGION
FRI AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH.

WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK

WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL DROP
INTO  THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS
ALTHOUGH TRACKS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MTN AND
VALLEY SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN.

WE SHOULD START TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SUMMARY...

A LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AND N EL
PASO COUNTY THU NITE INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT
DUE TO THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW. IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE
FUTURE TO PREDICT EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE PROJECTED QPF
AND TEMPS...IT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY (BOTH IS DEPTH AND WEIGHT).

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY LATE FRI AFTERNOON ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.

WIDESPREAD RAIN COULD OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS THU NITE INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTAL QPF
PREDICTED BY HPC DURING THE NEXT ~7 DAYS OVER MOST OF THE REGION
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.5" TO 4.0". THE HEAVIEST WILL BE ALONG THE
MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE.

MORE STEADY RAIN AND SNOW COULD OCCUR SUN NITE INTO MONDAY.

LOTS OF CLOUDS AND VERY COOL WEATHER WILL BE WITH US DURING THIS
ENTIRE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. FREEZING TEMPS MAY OCCUR NEARLY
EVERY NIGHT ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE WILL SWING UP INTO
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW.  ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DRIFT OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT MAY
BRING INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. A
COLD FRONT LINGERING OVER NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 3 PM WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AT TIMES FOR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB
THROUGH 04Z WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ084.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE





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