000
FXUS65 KPUB 192044
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
244 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
CURRENTLY...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK INSTABILITY HAVE LED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS...THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA. LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THERE HAVE BEEN A
COUPLE OF CELLS MOVE OUT EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN PLEASANT
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY GOES AWAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE COLDEST AREA WILL BE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
WHERE A FEW UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANTS IN
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
MONDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THAT WE SAW ON
SUNDAY. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT SHOWER TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY BY THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE.
AREAS OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SPOTTY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLEASANT WITH LOWER TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
COOL WX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TIME PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO A
MORE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...00Z TUESDAY...A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
MAY BE OVER THE REGION...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
SUNSET. LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
PLAINS WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. COULD SEE
QUITE A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SPINS TO OUR NORTHEAST.
TUESDAY...
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS WITH 50S AND 60S VALLEYS/MTNS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST MOVES ONLY SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE
PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER THE REGION....ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING.
WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON THIS DAY. SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOWERS THIS DAY...IF ANY...SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAYBE ALONG THE CONTDVD.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S PLAINS...60S AND 70S MTNS/VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...
THINGS MAY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE ON THIS DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ON THE PLAINS AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO FORM OVER
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RATON MESA. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO FOR OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. CURRENT MODELS
ARE SHOWING ABOUT 1000 JOULES OF CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE.
FRIDAY...
MTNS SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY AND A BIT BREEZY ON THIS DAY. PLAINS MAY
SEE SOME ISOLD THUNDER AS QUITE A BIT CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT
FORCING LOOKS MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE 80S THIS DAY
WITH 60S AND 70S MTNS/VALLEYS. WE MAY START TO SEE SOME FIRE WX
CONCERNS OVER THE HIGHER TRRN THIS DAY.
INTO THE WEEKEND...
DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE ALOFT. MTNS WILL BE DRY
AND WARM AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY AT TIMES. PLAINS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE
HOT AND DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THE FAR
SE PLAINS. FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW MAY DRIFT EAST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
TO NEAR KALS THROUGH 02Z. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A CELL HITTING THE TERMINAL IS LOW.
SEVERAL CELLS HAVE DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY BUT HAVE NOT
IMPACTED THE TERMINAL. ONE OR TWO CELLS COULD MOVE OVER KCOS
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS 02Z. THERE IS STILL A LOW THREAT FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KPUB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
OCCURRENCE. EXPECT ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY
000
FXUS65 KPUB 191714
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPDATED TO REDUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED THE FORECAST OFF THE
NSSL WRF AND CAIC WRF RUNS...WHICH ONLY HAVE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THEREFORE REDUCED OUR POPS TO MATCH. GIVEN
THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...IT MAY BE HARD FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TO REACH THE GROUND...AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
ELSEWHERE THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING
ABOVE 9 KFT THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...COOLING TREND CONTINUES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH HANGING BACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS HELPING TO FUEL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AT
THIS TIME.
TODAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALONG WITH LATE SPRING
SUNSHINE...WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PASSING WAVE SENDS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHICH ALSO HELPS TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS WITH
CONTINUED INVERTED V PROFILES. MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER...ARE A
LITTLE DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LCLS BETWEEN H65 AND H6...WHICH
SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COOLING ALOFT AS
WELL AS AT THE SFC WITH PASSING COLD FRONT...HIGHS TODAY WILL FOLLOW
THE TREND WITH MAINLY 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ONLY 30S AT MT TOPS. WITH THAT
SAID...COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE OF INCHES ON THE
HIGHER PEAKS.
TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND UPPER MIDWEST LOW ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND INTO
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA THE EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH POPS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
INCREASING UVV AHEAD WESTERN WYOMING WAVE. WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...COULD
SEE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MT VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ON MONDAY AN UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED OVR SD WITH AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO ERN CO. NW FLOW AND GOOD MSTR INTO THE
CENTRAL MTS AND OVR THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA...SHOULD LEAD
TO GOOD CHANCES FOR PCPN IN THOSE LOCATIONS THRU THE DAY. IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS A SHRTWV TROF IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD OVR THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE TROF AXIS...AND
IS EXPECTED TO AID IN KICKING OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS ON MON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL. BY LATE MON NIGHT MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD END BUT
MOIST NW FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL
MTS...AND POSSIBLY TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. TEMPS WL BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OVER PIKES PEAK.
THE UPR LOW WL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND ON TUE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVR ERN SD...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVR UT AND
PUSHES INTO WRN CO. SOME LINGERING MSTR AND INSTABILITY...ALONG
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WRN CO...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCT PCPN MAINLY OVR THE MTN
AREAS. TEMPS TUE SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AND SHOULD BE AROUND
AVERAGE. THE UPR DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACRS CO THU NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME ISOLD PCPN TO
THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL.
ON WED THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACRS CO...BUT IN THE AFTERNOON A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE OVR THE AREA AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MSTR FOR A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY OVR THE HYR TRRN.
THU AND FRI AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVR THE PAC
NW...CAUSING INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. OVR
THE SERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL BRING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MSTR. THE GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES AND A SFC BOUNDARY ACRS THE SERN
PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POSSIBLY SOME STRONG TSTMS.
ON SAT AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE WRN STATES AND
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL MSTR
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW MAY DRIFT EAST OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY TO NEAR KALS BETWEEN 19-02Z THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS
WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A CELL HITTING
THE TERMINAL IS LOW. MODELS DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR KCOS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
THROUGH 02Z. LESS CERTAINTY AT KPUB...FOR NOW WILL THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ANY THREATS BEING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY
000
FXUS65 KPUB 191011
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
411 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...COOLING TREND CONTINUES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH HANGING BACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS HELPING TO FUEL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AT
THIS TIME.
TODAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALONG WITH LATE SPRING
SUNSHINE...WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PASSING WAVE SENDS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHICH ALSO HELPS TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS WITH
CONTINUED INVERTED V PROFILES. MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER...ARE A
LITTLE DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LCLS BETWEEN H65 AND H6...WHICH
SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COOLING ALOFT AS
WELL AS AT THE SFC WITH PASSING COLD FRONT...HIGHS TODAY WILL FOLLOW
THE TREND WITH MAINLY 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ONLY 30S AT MT TOPS. WITH THAT
SAID...COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE OF INCHES ON THE
HIGHER PEAKS.
TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND UPPER MIDWEST LOW ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND INTO
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA THE EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH POPS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
INCREASING UVV AHEAD WESTERN WYOMING WAVE. WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...COULD
SEE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MT VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ON MONDAY AN UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED OVR SD WITH AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO ERN CO. NW FLOW AND GOOD MSTR INTO THE
CENTRAL MTS AND OVR THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA...SHOULD LEAD
TO GOOD CHANCES FOR PCPN IN THOSE LOCATIONS THRU THE DAY. IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS A SHRTWV TROF IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD OVR THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE TROF AXIS...AND
IS EXPECTED TO AID IN KICKING OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS ON MON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL. BY LATE MON NIGHT MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD END BUT
MOIST NW FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL
MTS...AND POSSIBLY TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. TEMPS WL BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OVER PIKES PEAK.
THE UPR LOW WL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND ON TUE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVR ERN SD...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVR UT AND
PUSHES INTO WRN CO. SOME LINGERING MSTR AND INSTABILITY...ALONG
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WRN CO...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCT PCPN MAINLY OVR THE MTN
AREAS. TEMPS TUE SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AND SHOULD BE AROUND
AVERAGE. THE UPR DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACRS CO THU NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME ISOLD PCPN TO
THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL.
ON WED THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACRS CO...BUT IN THE AFTERNOON A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE OVR THE AREA AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MSTR FOR A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY OVR THE HYR TRRN.
THU AND FRI AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVR THE PAC
NW...CAUSING INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. OVR
THE SERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL BRING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MSTR. THE GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES AND A SFC BOUNDARY ACRS THE SERN
PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POSSIBLY SOME STRONG TSTMS.
ON SAT AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE WRN STATES AND
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL MSTR
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20KTS TO
KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SCATTERED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT MAINLY
VIRGA ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW
000
FXUS65 KPUB 190455
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1055 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPDATED GRIDS TO TAKE DOWN THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING.
FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST CO AND IS TIMED BY RUC13 AND
NAM12 TO CROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE BETWEEN 03-05Z. THIS WILL BRING
SOME HIGHER DEW POINT AIR INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/ISO TSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN EL
PASO AND POSSIBLY KIOWA COUNTY. HOWEVER 00Z NAM IS KEEPING IT DRY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
NOTE: THIS IS A CORRECTED AFD. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR TOMORROW. THE ORIGINAL AFD ISSUED AT 247 PM MENTIONED IN THE
HEADLINE "...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW..."
CURRENTLY
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR KAKO TO EXTREME NE KIOWA COUNTY AND THEN
TOWARDS LIBERAL. OVER NEARLY ALL OF OUR PLAINS DWPTS ARE IN THE
TEENS OR LOWER. A STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF KIOWA
COUNTY AND IS MOVING NNE INTO NW KS. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WERE OCCURRING OVER S EL PASO COUNTY AS KCOS WAS GUSTING TO 24 KTS
WITH AN RH OF 13%.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE PLAINS THE REST OF
TODAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. WE WILL SEE ISOLD TO SCTD
THUNDER OVER THE MTNS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY GET A BIT
GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH THE FROPA...MAINLY OVER EL PASO COUNTY.
OVER THE MTNS FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE CONTDVD.
TOMORROW...
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT
EXPECT WE WILL CLOUD UP PRETTY QUICKLY GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. LOTS OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA WILL OCCUR TOMORROW BUT PRECIP
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WILL OCCUR NEARLY ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE MTNS
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO OCCUR. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 65-75 RANGE...WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE WARMEST TEMPS IN BACA
COUNTY. 50S AND 60S WILL OCCUR IN THE MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TRENDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PARK ITSELF OVER NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ONE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY
SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES. AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 9-10 KFT AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ON PEAKS. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS
CERTAINTY ON THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE A FEELING AREAS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE AREAS IN THE ARKANSAS VALLEY REMAINED
SHADOWED OUT. FOR NOW THERE ARE SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
STATIONARY LOW SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WARM WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A STATIONARY LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE MIXING OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PRODUCE A DRYLINE BOUNDARY EACH AFTERNOON FROM NEAR
COLORADO SPRINGS...SOUTHEAST TO SPRINGFIELD. THE GFS IS INDICATING
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE MAIN
ISSUE MAY BE A FORCING MECHANISM. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BOTH DAYS DESERVE
WATCHING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH 80S ACROSS THE REGION. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE WIDELY SCATTERED AFT 18Z SUNDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STARK
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...STARK
000
FXUS65 KPUB 190211
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
811 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPDATED GRIDS TO TAKE DOWN THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING.
FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST CO AND IS TIMED BY RUC13 AND
NAM12 TO CROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE BETWEEN 03-05Z. THIS WILL BRING
SOME HIGHER DEW POINT AIR INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/ISO TSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN EL
PASO AND POSSIBLY KIOWA COUNTY. HOWEVER 00Z NAM IS KEEPING IT DRY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
NOTE: THIS IS A CORRECTED AFD. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR TOMORROW. THE ORIGINAL AFD ISSUED AT 247 PM MENTIONED IN THE
HEADLINE "...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW..."
CURRENTLY
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR KAKO TO EXTREME NE KIOWA COUNTY AND THEN
TOWARDS LIBERAL. OVER NEARLY ALL OF OUR PLAINS DWPTS ARE IN THE
TEENS OR LOWER. A STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF KIOWA
COUNTY AND IS MOVING NNE INTO NW KS. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WERE OCCURRING OVER S EL PASO COUNTY AS KCOS WAS GUSTING TO 24 KTS
WITH AN RH OF 13%.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE PLAINS THE REST OF
TODAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. WE WILL SEE ISOLD TO SCTD
THUNDER OVER THE MTNS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY GET A BIT
GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH THE FROPA...MAINLY OVER EL PASO COUNTY.
OVER THE MTNS FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE CONTDVD.
TOMORROW...
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT
EXPECT WE WILL CLOUD UP PRETTY QUICKLY GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. LOTS OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA WILL OCCUR TOMORROW BUT PRECIP
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WILL OCCUR NEARLY ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE MTNS
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO OCCUR. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 65-75 RANGE...WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE WARMEST TEMPS IN BACA
COUNTY. 50S AND 60S WILL OCCUR IN THE MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TRENDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PARK ITSELF OVER NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ONE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY
SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES. AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 9-10 KFT AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ON PEAKS. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS
CERTAINTY ON THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE A FEELING AREAS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE AREAS IN THE ARKANSAS VALLEY REMAINED
SHADOWED OUT. FOR NOW THERE ARE SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
STATIONARY LOW SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WARM WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A STATIONARY LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE MIXING OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PRODUCE A DRYLINE BOUNDARY EACH AFTERNOON FROM NEAR
COLORADO SPRINGS...SOUTHEAST TO SPRINGFIELD. THE GFS IS INDICATING
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE MAIN
ISSUE MAY BE A FORCING MECHANISM. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BOTH DAYS DESERVE
WATCHING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH 80S ACROSS THE REGION. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THRU 03Z OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN KS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED
AFT 15Z. DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STARK
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...STARK
000
FXUS65 KPUB 182306
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
506 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
NOTE: THIS IS A CORRECTED AFD. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR TOMORROW. THE ORIGINAL AFD ISSUED AT 247 PM MENTIONED IN THE
HEADLINE "...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW..."
CURRENTLY
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR KAKO TO EXTREME NE KIOWA COUNTY AND THEN
TOWARDS LIBERAL. OVER NEARLY ALL OF OUR PLAINS DWPTS ARE IN THE
TEENS OR LOWER. A STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF KIOWA
COUNTY AND IS MOVING NNE INTO NW KS. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WERE OCCURRING OVER S EL PASO COUNTY AS KCOS WAS GUSTING TO 24 KTS
WITH AN RH OF 13%.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE PLAINS THE REST OF
TODAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. WE WILL SEE ISOLD TO SCTD
THUNDER OVER THE MTNS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY GET A BIT
GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH THE FROPA...MAINLY OVER EL PASO COUNTY.
OVER THE MTNS FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE CONTDVD.
TOMORROW...
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT
EXPECT WE WILL CLOUD UP PRETTY QUICKLY GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. LOTS OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA WILL OCCUR TOMORROW BUT PRECIP
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WILL OCCUR NEARLY ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE MTNS
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO OCCUR. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 65-75 RANGE...WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE WARMEST TEMPS IN BACA
COUNTY. 50S AND 60S WILL OCCUR IN THE MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TRENDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PARK ITSELF OVER NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ONE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY
SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES. AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 9-10 KFT AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ON PEAKS. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS
CERTAINTY ON THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE A FEELING AREAS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE AREAS IN THE ARKANSAS VALLEY REMAINED
SHADOWED OUT. FOR NOW THERE ARE SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
STATIONARY LOW SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WARM WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A STATIONARY LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE MIXING OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PRODUCE A DRYLINE BOUNDARY EACH AFTERNOON FROM NEAR
COLORADO SPRINGS...SOUTHEAST TO SPRINGFIELD. THE GFS IS INDICATING
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE MAIN
ISSUE MAY BE A FORCING MECHANISM. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BOTH DAYS DESERVE
WATCHING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH 80S ACROSS THE REGION. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THRU 03Z OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN KS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED
AFT 15Z. DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STARK
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-227-233-
237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...STARK
000
FXUS65 KPUB 182134 CCA
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
331 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
NOTE: THIS IS A CORRECTED AFD. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR TOMORROW. THE ORIGINAL AFD ISSUED AT 247 PM MENTIONED IN THE
HEADLINE "...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW..."
CURRENTLY
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR KAKO TO EXTREME NE KIOWA COUNTY AND THEN
TOWARDS LIBERAL. OVER NEARLY ALL OF OUR PLAINS DWPTS ARE IN THE
TEENS OR LOWER. A STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF KIOWA
COUNTY AND IS MOVING NNE INTO NW KS. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WERE OCCURRING OVER S EL PASO COUNTY AS KCOS WAS GUSTING TO 24 KTS
WITH AN RH OF 13%.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE PLAINS THE REST OF
TODAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. WE WILL SEE ISOLD TO SCTD
THUNDER OVER THE MTNS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY GET A BIT
GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH THE FROPA...MAINLY OVER EL PASO COUNTY.
OVER THE MTNS FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE CONTDVD.
TOMORROW...
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT
EXPECT WE WILL CLOUD UP PRETTY QUICKLY GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. LOTS OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA WILL OCCUR TOMORROW BUT PRECIP
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WILL OCCUR NEARLY ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE MTNS
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO OCCUR. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 65-75 RANGE...WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE WARMEST TEMPS IN BACA
COUNTY. 50S AND 60S WILL OCCUR IN THE MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TRENDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PARK ITSELF OVER NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ONE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY
SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES. AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 9-10 KFT AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ON PEAKS. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS
CERTAINTY ON THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE A FEELING AREAS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE AREAS IN THE ARKANSAS VALLEY REMAINED
SHADOWED OUT. FOR NOW THERE ARE SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
STATIONARY LOW SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WARM WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A STATIONARY LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE MIXING OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PRODUCE A DRYLINE BOUNDARY EACH AFTERNOON FROM NEAR
COLORADO SPRINGS...SOUTHEAST TO SPRINGFIELD. THE GFS IS INDICATING
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE MAIN
ISSUE MAY BE A FORCING MECHANISM. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BOTH DAYS DESERVE
WATCHING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH 80S ACROSS THE REGION. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHRA/TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT. SINCE PROBABILITY IS PRETTY
LOW...WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP CHANCES EXPLICITLY IN TAF PRODUCTS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-227-233-
237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 182110
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
310 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR KAKO TO EXTREME NE KIOWA COUNTY AND THEN
TOWARDS LIBERAL. OVER NEARLY ALL OF OUR PLAINS DWPTS ARE IN THE
TEENS OR LOWER. A STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF KIOWA
COUNTY AND IS MOVING NNE INTO NW KS. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WERE OCCURRING OVER S EL PASO COUNTY AS KCOS WAS GUSTING TO 24 KTS
WITH AN RH OF 13%.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE PLAINS THE REST OF
TODAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. WE WILL SEE ISOLD TO SCTD
THUNDER OVER THE MTNS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY GET A BIT
GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH THE FROPA...MAINLY OVER EL PASO COUNTY.
OVER THE MTNS FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE CONTDVD.
TOMORROW...
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT
EXPECT WE WILL CLOUD UP PRETTY QUICKLY GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. LOTS OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA WILL OCCUR TOMORROW BUT PRECIP
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WILL OCCUR NEARLY ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE MTNS
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO OCCUR. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 65-75 RANGE...WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE WARMEST TEMPS IN BACA
COUNTY. 50S AND 60S WILL OCCUR IN THE MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TRENDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PARK ITSELF OVER NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ONE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY
SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES. AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 9-10 KFT AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ON PEAKS. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS
CERTAINTY ON THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE A FEELING AREAS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE AREAS IN THE ARKANSAS VALLEY REMAINED
SHADOWED OUT. FOR NOW THERE ARE SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
STATIONARY LOW SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WARM WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A STATIONARY LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE MIXING OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PRODUCE A DRYLINE BOUNDARY EACH AFTERNOON FROM NEAR
COLORADO SPRINGS...SOUTHEAST TO SPRINGFIELD. THE GFS IS INDICATING
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE MAIN
ISSUE MAY BE A FORCING MECHANISM. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BOTH DAYS DESERVE
WATCHING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH 80S ACROSS THE REGION. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHRA/TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT. SINCE PROBABILITY IS PRETTY
LOW...WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP CHANCES EXPLICITLY IN TAF PRODUCTS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-227-233-
237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 181733
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1133 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY. AN UPR TROF
WL BE OVR THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND WL MOVE INTO WRN CO BY EVENING
AND THEN WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPR
TROF...W TO SW WINDS SFC WINDS WL INCREASE TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
BEING BREEZY TO WINDY. DEW POINT FORECAST IS A BIT DIFFICULT...BUT
WL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR FORECAST WHICH IS DRIER THAN THE NAM12 AND
THE RAP13. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE ERN AREAS AND AROUND
NORMAL FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR BACA AND
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
MIN RH VALUES AND WINDS MAY MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR A LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND OVER SRN EL PASO
COUNTY WHERE THE FUELS ARE DRY...AND THUS WL ADD THESE AREAS TO THE
RED FLAG WARNING.
BY LATE MORNING THERE WL PROBABLY BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR
THE MTS...WITH BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE CONTDVD. PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD THEN INCREASE OVR THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO KS WITH THE SERN PLAINS
REMAINING DRY. THE NAM12 HAS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE FAR SERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE DEW POINTS IN THE NAM
ARE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVR ERN PORTIONS OF KIOWA COUNTY WHERE THE HIGHEST DEW
POINTS WL LIKELY BE...SO WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA. SPC
HAS THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF KIOWA COUNTY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
TODAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE OVR AND NR THE HIGH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS. SFC WINDS THIS EVENING WL BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY MOST AREAS
AND THEN WL BECOME MORE NWRLY BY LATE NIGHT. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY BY LATE NIGHT...BUT THE CENTRAL MTS WL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOL AND
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...ALONG WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRST WAVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON KEEPS THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAINLY HIGH BASED
STORMS WITH CONTINUED INVERTED V PROFILES...SAVE THE FAR SE PLAINS
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN
KANSAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF WETTING
RAINFALL ALONG WITH ANOTHER LATE SEASON SHOT OF HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOWFALL...AS H7 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0C AND 4C. WITH
THAT SAID...MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE HIGH
MT VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MODERATING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO WESTERN COLORADO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW. MORE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST. WARMING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST (15G25KT) WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-227-233-
237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 181019
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
419 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY. AN UPR TROF
WL BE OVR THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND WL MOVE INTO WRN CO BY EVENING
AND THEN WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPR
TROF...W TO SW WINDS SFC WINDS WL INCREASE TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
BEING BREEZY TO WINDY. DEW POINT FORECAST IS A BIT DIFFICULT...BUT
WL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR FORECAST WHICH IS DRIER THAN THE NAM12 AND
THE RAP13. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE ERN AREAS AND AROUND
NORMAL FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR BACA AND
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
MIN RH VALUES AND WINDS MAY MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR A LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND OVER SRN EL PASO
COUNTY WHERE THE FUELS ARE DRY...AND THUS WL ADD THESE AREAS TO THE
RED FLAG WARNING.
BY LATE MORNING THERE WL PROBABLY BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR
THE MTS...WITH BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE CONTDVD. PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD THEN INCREASE OVR THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO KS WITH THE SERN PLAINS
REMAINING DRY. THE NAM12 HAS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE FAR SERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE DEW POINTS IN THE NAM
ARE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVR ERN PORTIONS OF KIOWA COUNTY WHERE THE HIGHEST DEW
POINTS WL LIKELY BE...SO WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA. SPC
HAS THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF KIOWA COUNTY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
TODAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE OVR AND NR THE HIGH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS. SFC WINDS THIS EVENING WL BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY MOST AREAS
AND THEN WL BECOME MORE NWRLY BY LATE NIGHT. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY BY LATE NIGHT...BUT THE CENTRAL MTS WL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOL AND
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...ALONG WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRST WAVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON KEEPS THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAINLY HIGH BASED
STORMS WITH CONTINUED INVERTED V PROFILES...SAVE THE FAR SE PLAINS
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN
KANSAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF WETTING
RAINFALL ALONG WITH ANOTHER LATE SEASON SHOT OF HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOWFALL...AS H7 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0C AND 4C. WITH
THAT SAID...MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE HIGH
MT VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MODERATING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO WESTERN COLORADO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW. MORE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST. WARMING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS TAF SITES. SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY BY EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF
KALS AND POSSIBLY NR KCOS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ224-227-233-237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
000
FXUS65 KPUB 180517
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
UPDATED TO TAKE DOWN RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWING INCREASE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MAIN CHANGE IN UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT. LOTS
OF SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THINK REBOUND
WILL BE SLOW EXCEPT OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE SE WINDS WILL ADVECT
HIGHER DEW POINTS IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY
DRYLINE WAS MIXING EASTWARD. IT WAS LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF
KLHX TO KSPD. DWPTS OVER THE TRINIDAD REGION AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
HAVE TANKED...WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MARGINAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS AS WINDS WERE GUSTING IN THE
25 MPH RANGE AT QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS AT 2 PM.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH DRYLINE WILL NOT MIX OUT INTO
KS...THERE IS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WE WILL REMAINED CAPPED
AND LIKEWISE I DO NOT EXPECT ANY +TSRA NEAR THE BORDER.
WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...LOW CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE FAR E COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...
RED FLAG CONCERNS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN. I AM CERTAIN WE WILL SEE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS TOMORROW. ONLY E LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES ARE IN THE "YES" COLUMN ON THE FUELS PAGE
AND HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING THESE
AREAS.
OTHER AREAS MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN
S EL PASO COUNTY. HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL LIKELY COME DOWN DURING
MIDDAY AND COOLER...CLOUDIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. FOR
THIS REASON I DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WX HILITES FOR THIS
REGION.
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT AS COOLER...CLOUDIER AIR MOVES IN
DURING MIDDAY...RH VALUES WILL RISE AND TEMPS WILL DECREASE
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND VIRGA.
THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT OF A SVR STORM TOMORROW OVER FAR EASTERN
KIOWA COUNTY. SPC WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK WITH A 45% HATCHED AREA
JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TOUCHES KIOWA
COUNTY. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO KS AND ANY SVR
THREAT WILL BE INTO KS...BUT IF THINGS SLOW UP A BIT AND THE DRYLINE
STAYS TO THE WEST...THEN THE SVR THREAT WILL BE HIGHER. FOR NOW I
JUST HAVE A 10% POP FOR THE FAR NE PART OF KIOWA COUNTY.
BY NOON TOMORROW A SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF KLIC.
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BLAST EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THIS WILL BRING A BIT COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME VIRGA. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
THE RH VALUES A BIT AND COOL OFF THE AIR SLIGHTLY. OVER THE FAR SE
PLAINS STRONGER...DRIER SW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THIS IS THE
AREA THAT WILL SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WILL BE NEAR KGLD. PREFRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT BLASTING
SOUTH OF I-70. LOTS OF VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS.
MAX TEMPS TOMORROW OVER THE EL PASO COUNTY REGION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AROUND NOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE FAR E PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE NEXT 84 HOURS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED
VORT LOBES...WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
NAM12/GFS/EC INDICATE A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING...COOLING 700MB TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 12Z
NAM12 SEEMS OVERDONE WITH QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS. THE EC KEEPS THESE AREAS MAINLY DRY AND THE GFS
HINTS AT SOME SHOWERS OVER KIOWA COUNTY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
LATER MODEL RUNS...BUT FOR NOW 10-20 POPS SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE CWA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/EC SHOW 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 4C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPERATURES BEING 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH 06Z. THE 12Z
EC IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...BUT DOES WIND DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. INCREASED POPS TO THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER GOOD COORD WITH DDC AND GLD.
LITTLE RECOVERY OF 700MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS THE FINAL PIECE
OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. THE 12Z EC
LOOKS TO BE SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE
GFS. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION VERIFIES...MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NEED
TO BE TRIMMED BACK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMP TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. -PJC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM KANSAS. IFR...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIFR CIGS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 15-17Z.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY
ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING SPEEDS TO 20-25 MPH.
SOME VIRGA IS LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SW MTNS...S
MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...FREMONT COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW FOR EASTERN LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTY.
DRY WINDY WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGIONS ABOVE BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW...BRINGING THE THREAT OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR IF A FIRE
WERE TO START. WINDS ACROSS BACA COUNTY TOMORROW WILL GUSTS TO 40
MPH WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ233-237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH L
AVIATION...LW
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 180212
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
812 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
UPDATED TO TAKE DOWN RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWING INCREASE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MAIN CHANGE IN UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT. LOTS
OF SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THINK REBOUND
WILL BE SLOW EXCEPT OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE SE WINDS WILL ADVECT
HIGHER DEW POINTS IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY
DRYLINE WAS MIXING EASTWARD. IT WAS LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF
KLHX TO KSPD. DWPTS OVER THE TRINIDAD REGION AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
HAVE TANKED...WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MARGINAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS AS WINDS WERE GUSTING IN THE
25 MPH RANGE AT QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS AT 2 PM.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH DRYLINE WILL NOT MIX OUT INTO
KS...THERE IS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WE WILL REMAINED CAPPED
AND LIKEWISE I DO NOT EXPECT ANY +TSRA NEAR THE BORDER.
WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...LOW CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE FAR E COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...
RED FLAG CONCERNS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN. I AM CERTAIN WE WILL SEE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS TOMORROW. ONLY E LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES ARE IN THE "YES" COLUMN ON THE FUELS PAGE
AND HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING THESE
AREAS.
OTHER AREAS MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN
S EL PASO COUNTY. HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL LIKELY COME DOWN DURING
MIDDAY AND COOLER...CLOUDIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. FOR
THIS REASON I DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WX HILITES FOR THIS
REGION.
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT AS COOLER...CLOUDIER AIR MOVES IN
DURING MIDDAY...RH VALUES WILL RISE AND TEMPS WILL DECREASE
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND VIRGA.
THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT OF A SVR STORM TOMORROW OVER FAR EASTERN
KIOWA COUNTY. SPC WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK WITH A 45% HATCHED AREA
JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TOUCHES KIOWA
COUNTY. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO KS AND ANY SVR
THREAT WILL BE INTO KS...BUT IF THINGS SLOW UP A BIT AND THE DRYLINE
STAYS TO THE WEST...THEN THE SVR THREAT WILL BE HIGHER. FOR NOW I
JUST HAVE A 10% POP FOR THE FAR NE PART OF KIOWA COUNTY.
BY NOON TOMORROW A SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF KLIC.
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BLAST EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THIS WILL BRING A BIT COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME VIRGA. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
THE RH VALUES A BIT AND COOL OFF THE AIR SLIGHTLY. OVER THE FAR SE
PLAINS STRONGER...DRIER SW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THIS IS THE
AREA THAT WILL SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WILL BE NEAR KGLD. PREFRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT BLASTING
SOUTH OF I-70. LOTS OF VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS.
MAX TEMPS TOMORROW OVER THE EL PASO COUNTY REGION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AROUND NOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE FAR E PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE NEXT 84 HOURS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED
VORT LOBES...WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
NAM12/GFS/EC INDICATE A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING...COOLING 700MB TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 12Z
NAM12 SEEMS OVERDONE WITH QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS. THE EC KEEPS THESE AREAS MAINLY DRY AND THE GFS
HINTS AT SOME SHOWERS OVER KIOWA COUNTY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
LATER MODEL RUNS...BUT FOR NOW 10-20 POPS SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE CWA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/EC SHOW 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 4C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPERATURES BEING 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH 06Z. THE 12Z
EC IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...BUT DOES WIND DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. INCREASED POPS TO THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER GOOD COORD WITH DDC AND GLD.
LITTLE RECOVERY OF 700MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS THE FINAL PIECE
OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. THE 12Z EC
LOOKS TO BE SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE
GFS. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION VERIFIES...MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NEED
TO BE TRIMMED BACK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMP TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. -PJC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS INTO A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY...REACHING SPEEDS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.
SOME VIRGA IS LIKELY TOMORROW AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SW MTNS...S
MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...FREMONT COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW FOR EASTERN LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTY.
DRY WINDY WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGIONS ABOVE BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW...BRINGING THE THREAT OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR IF A FIRE
WERE TO START. WINDS ACROSS BACA COUNTY TOMORROW WILL GUSTS TO 40
MPH WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ233-237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH L
ONG TERM...PJC
AVIATION...HODANISH
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 180006
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
606 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MAIN CHANGE IN UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT. LOTS
OF SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THINK REBOUND
WILL BE SLOW EXCEPT OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE SE WINDS WILL ADVECT
HIGHER DEW POINTS IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY
DRYLINE WAS MIXING EASTWARD. IT WAS LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF
KLHX TO KSPD. DWPTS OVER THE TRINIDAD REGION AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
HAVE TANKED...WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MARGINAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS AS WINDS WERE GUSTING IN THE
25 MPH RANGE AT QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS AT 2 PM.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH DRYLINE WILL NOT MIX OUT INTO
KS...THERE IS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WE WILL REMAINED CAPPED
AND LIKEWISE I DO NOT EXPECT ANY +TSRA NEAR THE BORDER.
WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...LOW CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE FAR E COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...
RED FLAG CONCERNS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN. I AM CERTAIN WE WILL SEE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS TOMORROW. ONLY E LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES ARE IN THE "YES" COLUMN ON THE FUELS PAGE
AND HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING THESE
AREAS.
OTHER AREAS MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN
S EL PASO COUNTY. HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL LIKELY COME DOWN DURING
MIDDAY AND COOLER...CLOUDIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. FOR
THIS REASON I DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WX HILITES FOR THIS
REGION.
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT AS COOLER...CLOUDIER AIR MOVES IN
DURING MIDDAY...RH VALUES WILL RISE AND TEMPS WILL DECREASE
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND VIRGA.
THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT OF A SVR STORM TOMORROW OVER FAR EASTERN
KIOWA COUNTY. SPC WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK WITH A 45% HATCHED AREA
JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TOUCHES KIOWA
COUNTY. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO KS AND ANY SVR
THREAT WILL BE INTO KS...BUT IF THINGS SLOW UP A BIT AND THE DRYLINE
STAYS TO THE WEST...THEN THE SVR THREAT WILL BE HIGHER. FOR NOW I
JUST HAVE A 10% POP FOR THE FAR NE PART OF KIOWA COUNTY.
BY NOON TOMORROW A SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF KLIC.
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BLAST EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THIS WILL BRING A BIT COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME VIRGA. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
THE RH VALUES A BIT AND COOL OFF THE AIR SLIGHTLY. OVER THE FAR SE
PLAINS STRONGER...DRIER SW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THIS IS THE
AREA THAT WILL SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WILL BE NEAR KGLD. PREFRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT BLASTING
SOUTH OF I-70. LOTS OF VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS.
MAX TEMPS TOMORROW OVER THE EL PASO COUNTY REGION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AROUND NOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE FAR E PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE NEXT 84 HOURS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED
VORT LOBES...WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
NAM12/GFS/EC INDICATE A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING...COOLING 700MB TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 12Z
NAM12 SEEMS OVERDONE WITH QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS. THE EC KEEPS THESE AREAS MAINLY DRY AND THE GFS
HINTS AT SOME SHOWERS OVER KIOWA COUNTY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
LATER MODEL RUNS...BUT FOR NOW 10-20 POPS SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE CWA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/EC SHOW 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 4C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPERATURES BEING 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH 06Z. THE 12Z
EC IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...BUT DOES WIND DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. INCREASED POPS TO THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER GOOD COORD WITH DDC AND GLD.
LITTLE RECOVERY OF 700MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS THE FINAL PIECE
OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. THE 12Z EC
LOOKS TO BE SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE
GFS. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION VERIFIES...MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NEED
TO BE TRIMMED BACK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMP TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. -PJC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS INTO A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY...REACHING SPEEDS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.
SOME VIRGA IS LIKELY TOMORROW AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SW MTNS...S
MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...FREMONT COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW FOR EASTERN LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTY.
DRY WINDY WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGIONS ABOVE BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW...BRINGING THE THREAT OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR IF A FIRE
WERE TO START. WINDS ACROSS BACA COUNTY TOMORROW WILL GUSTS TO 40
MPH WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222>227.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ233-237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PJC
AVIATION...HODANISH
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 172106
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY
DRYLINE WAS MIXING EASTWARD. IT WAS LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF
KLHX TO KSPD. DWPTS OVER THE TRINIDAD REGION AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
HAVE TANKED...WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MARGINAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS AS WINDS WERE GUSTING IN THE
25 MPH RANGE AT QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS AT 2 PM.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH DRYLINE WILL NOT MIX OUT INTO
KS...THERE IS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WE WILL REMAINED CAPPED
AND LIKEWISE I DO NOT EXPECT ANY +TSRA NEAR THE BORDER.
WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...LOW CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE FAR E COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...
RED FLAG CONCERNS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN. I AM CERTAIN WE WILL SEE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS TOMORROW. ONLY E LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES ARE IN THE "YES" COLUMN ON THE FUELS PAGE
AND HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING THESE
AREAS.
OTHER AREAS MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN
S EL PASO COUNTY. HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL LIKELY COME DOWN DURING
MIDDAY AND COOLER...CLOUDIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. FOR
THIS REASON I DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WX HILITES FOR THIS
REGION.
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT AS COOLER...CLOUDIER AIR MOVES IN
DURING MIDDAY...RH VALUES WILL RISE AND TEMPS WILL DECREASE
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND VIRGA.
THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT OF A SVR STORM TOMORROW OVER FAR EASTERN
KIOWA COUNTY. SPC WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK WITH A 45% HATCHED AREA
JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TOUCHES KIOWA
COUNTY. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO KS AND ANY SVR
THREAT WILL BE INTO KS...BUT IF THINGS SLOW UP A BIT AND THE DRYLINE
STAYS TO THE WEST...THEN THE SVR THREAT WILL BE HIGHER. FOR NOW I
JUST HAVE A 10% POP FOR THE FAR NE PART OF KIOWA COUNTY.
BY NOON TOMORROW A SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF KLIC.
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BLAST EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THIS WILL BRING A BIT COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME VIRGA. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
THE RH VALUES A BIT AND COOL OFF THE AIR SLIGHTLY. OVER THE FAR SE
PLAINS STRONGER...DRIER SW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THIS IS THE
AREA THAT WILL SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WILL BE NEAR KGLD. PREFRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT BLASTING
SOUTH OF I-70. LOTS OF VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS.
MAX TEMPS TOMORROW OVER THE EL PASO COUNTY REGION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AROUND NOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE FAR E PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE NEXT 84 HOURS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED
VORT LOBES...WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
NAM12/GFS/EC INDICATE A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING...COOLING 700MB TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 12Z
NAM12 SEEMS OVERDONE WITH QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS. THE EC KEEPS THESE AREAS MAINLY DRY AND THE GFS
HINTS AT SOME SHOWERS OVER KIOWA COUNTY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
LATER MODEL RUNS...BUT FOR NOW 10-20 POPS SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE CWA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/EC SHOW 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 4C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPERATURES BEING 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH 06Z. THE 12Z
EC IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...BUT DOES WIND DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. INCREASED POPS TO THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER GOOD COORD WITH DDC AND GLD.
LITTLE RECOVERY OF 700MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS THE FINAL PIECE
OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. THE 12Z EC
LOOKS TO BE SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE
GFS. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION VERIFIES...MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NEED
TO BE TRIMMED BACK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMP TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. -PJC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS INTO A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY...REACHING SPEEDS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.
SOME VIRGA IS LIKELY TOMORROW AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SW MTNS...S
MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...FREMONT COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW FOR EASTERN LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTY.
DRY WINDY WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGIONS ABOVE BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW...BRINGING THE THREAT OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR IF A FIRE
WERE TO START. WINDS ACROSS BACA COUNTY TOMORROW WILL GUSTS TO 40
MPH WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222>227.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ233-237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PJC
AVIATION...HODANISH
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 171702
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1102 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED...OVR
THE FAR SERN PLAINS. HI RES FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD COVER KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT AND BACA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING FARTHER WEST THAN THAT BY
12Z...INTO CROWLEY...PORTIONS OF OTERO...AND ERN PUEBLO AND ERN EL PASO
COUNTIES. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM W TO E
THRU THE MORNING HOURS.
AN UPR TROF WL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY CAUSING
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC...S TO SW
WINDS WL INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH SFC DEW POINTS DECREASING AND MIN
RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO BELOW 15 PERCENT OVR ALL OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...GIVEN THIS AREA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE WIND GUSTS STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET THE CRITERIA
ALONG WITH THE RH VALUES BEING BELOW 15 PERCENT (EXCEPT AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS)...AND HAVE BEEN DESIGNATED AS LOCATIONS WHERE THE FUELS
ARE DRY AND CRITICAL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF BACA
COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG TOWARD EVENING...BUT THE TIME
PERIOD WOULD LIKELY BE TOO BRIEF TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT.
WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LEVELS
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...THERE WL BE A DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE ERN BORDER. THE NAM12 IS SHOWING DEW POINTS OVR
THE FAR SERN BORDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT THAT MAY BE A BIT
TOO HIGH. WITH THOSE HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE NAM...IT IS SHOWING
CAPE VALUES IN THAT AREA BEING 2000+ J/KG...HOWEVER WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CAP NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION.
TEMPS TODAY WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS THE AREA. HIGHS WL
APPROACH RECORD LEVELS FOR PUEBLO AND COLO SPGS TODAY. THE RECORD FOR
PUEBLO IS 94 SET IN 1964...AND FOR COLO SPGS IS 88 SET IN 1970
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. FUELS STATUS INDICATING GREEN UP UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SAVE EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...WITH CURRENT
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE TWO AREAS STILL LOOKING GOOD. COOLING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTS HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER WITH SECONDARY ENERGY NOW TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
COVERAGE REMAINING OVER THE NEAR THE CENTRAL MTS AND PIKES PEAK
REGION. BEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL AREA WIDE NOW LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY...WITH UVV ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY
AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMING ALOFT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WITH DRY LINE BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE A BIT GUSTY
(25 KNTS) FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT KALS AND KCOS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
THE ROCKY MTN AREA FIRE PREDICTION SERVICE UPDATED THE FUELS PAGE
VERY RECENTLY TO INCLUDE EL PASO COUNTY IN THE "YES" CATEGORY.
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME IT WAS "NO". FOR THIS REASON WE ARE
UPDATING THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE EL PASO COUNTY IN THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. WE WILL HAVE THE NEW FCST OUT WITHIN THE
HOUR.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222>225.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ233-237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 171014
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
414 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED...OVR
THE FAR SERN PLAINS. HI RES FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD COVER KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT AND BACA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING FARTHER WEST THAN THAT BY
12Z...INTO CROWLEY...PORTIONS OF OTERO...AND ERN PUEBLO AND ERN EL PASO
COUNTIES. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM W TO E
THRU THE MORNING HOURS.
AN UPR TROF WL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY CAUSING
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC...S TO SW
WINDS WL INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH SFC DEW POINTS DECREASING AND MIN
RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO BELOW 15 PERCENT OVR ALL OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...GIVEN THIS AREA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE WIND GUSTS STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET THE CRITERIA
ALONG WITH THE RH VALUES BEING BELOW 15 PERCENT (EXCEPT AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS)...AND HAVE BEEN DESIGNATED AS LOCATIONS WHERE THE FUELS
ARE DRY AND CRITICAL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF BACA
COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG TOWARD EVENING...BUT THE TIME
PERIOD WOULD LIKELY BE TOO BRIEF TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT.
WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LEVELS
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...THERE WL BE A DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE ERN BORDER. THE NAM12 IS SHOWING DEW POINTS OVR
THE FAR SERN BORDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT THAT MAY BE A BIT
TOO HIGH. WITH THOSE HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE NAM...IT IS SHOWING
CAPE VALUES IN THAT AREA BEING 2000+ J/KG...HOWEVER WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CAP NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION.
TEMPS TODAY WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS THE AREA. HIGHS WL
APPROACH RECORD LEVELS FOR PUEBLO AND COLO SPGS TODAY. THE RECORD FOR
PUEBLO IS 94 SET IN 1964...AND FOR COLO SPGS IS 88 SET IN 1970
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. FUELS STATUS INDICATING GREEN UP UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SAVE EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...WITH CURRENT
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE TWO AREAS STILL LOOKING GOOD. COOLING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTS HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER WITH SECONDARY ENERGY NOW TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
COVERAGE REMAINING OVER THE NEAR THE CENTRAL MTS AND PIKES PEAK
REGION. BEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL AREA WIDE NOW LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY...WITH UVV ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY
AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMING ALOFT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WITH DRY LINE BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
THIS MORNING SOME LOW STRATUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ERN PUEBLO
AND ERN EL PASO COUNTIES AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY COULD MOVE
INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB BRIEFLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACRS THE AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AT THE TAF
SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ222>225.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ233-237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
000
FXUS65 KPUB 170541
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1141 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
...FIRE WX CONCERNS INCREASING...
CURRENTLY
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM OVER NE CO. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED OVER THE C MTNS AND THE N SXNS OF THE PIKES
PEAK REGION. A WEAK DRY LINE WAS LOCATED GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM
EADS TO LA JUNTA TO SPRINGFIELD. A LINE OF Q WERE NOTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND A FEW WEAK ECHOES WERE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
AROUND 2 PM.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT IS THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS TO FORM ON THE DRYLINE OUT
EAST. SOME GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT THIS WHILE OTHERS WERE REMAINING
DRY. MARGINAL CAPE AND SHEAR WERE NOTED OVER THIS REGION AND TD/S
WERE IN THE MID 40S. IF ANYTHING DOES POP BELIEVE SVR THREAT WOULD
BE ON THE LOW END OF THE SCALE WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
AS FOR THE WALDO...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELIEVE ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE BELOW 0.10 INCHES.
LATER THIS EVENING DOWNWARD VV ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. THE DRYLINE IS
FCST TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...
MAIN CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD IS FIRE WX. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GO
WELL BELOW THE 15% CRITERIA BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE
(G30 MPH). BEST AREAS THAT WILL SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
SAN JUANS AND THE S MTNS. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY WILL
ALSO SEE A THREAT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. OVER THE C MTNS...TELLER
COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL ALSO OCCUR...BUT THE FUELS IN THESE AREAS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CARRYING FIRE...SO NO RED FLAG WARNING IS
BEING ISSUED FOR THESE REGIONS.
TOMORROW MORNING...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR E
COUNTIES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE PRONOUNCED OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED SO I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THREAT OF CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS.
IT WILL BE HOT TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS THAT WE WILL SEE TOMORROW WILL BE PASSING CIRRUS
CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR THE
EXTENDED SOLUTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON SWINGING THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH GENERAL TRFINESS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
FIRST OFF...FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY SHOULD BE
WARM OVERNIGHT AND HOT THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING 90 F
FOR THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SE CORNER OF
THE STATE SAT AFTN AND EVE. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE ONSET OF PCPN FOR THE CONTDVD WILL BE SAT
MORN...THOUGH SLOW AT FIRST. FEEL THAT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE CO/KS BORDER...SO INITIALLY CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN
INTO THE REGION SUN...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...LINGERING
CONVECTION CHANCES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN AND
MON. MAX TEMPS ON MON SHOULD BE AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON TUES AND WED AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE HI PRES RIDGE THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS
COLORADO ON THU. THIS WILL USHER IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR
TUE...THEN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WED AND THU. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
INDICATE A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ON
THU...SO INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGHEST PEAKS
THU AFTN AND EVE. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IFR
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF KLHX. STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY 15Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ222>225.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ233-237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
000
FXUS65 KPUB 170540
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
...FIRE WX CONCERNS INCREASING...
CURRENTLY
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM OVER NE CO. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED OVER THE C MTNS AND THE N SXNS OF THE PIKES
PEAK REGION. A WEAK DRY LINE WAS LOCATED GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM
EADS TO LA JUNTA TO SPRINGFIELD. A LINE OF Q WERE NOTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND A FEW WEAK ECHOES WERE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
AROUND 2 PM.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT IS THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS TO FORM ON THE DRYLINE OUT
EAST. SOME GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT THIS WHILE OTHERS WERE REMAINING
DRY. MARGINAL CAPE AND SHEAR WERE NOTED OVER THIS REGION AND TD/S
WERE IN THE MID 40S. IF ANYTHING DOES POP BELIEVE SVR THREAT WOULD
BE ON THE LOW END OF THE SCALE WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
AS FOR THE WALDO...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELIEVE ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE BELOW 0.10 INCHES.
LATER THIS EVENING DOWNWARD VV ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. THE DRYLINE IS
FCST TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...
MAIN CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD IS FIRE WX. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GO
WELL BELOW THE 15% CRITERIA BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE
(G30 MPH). BEST AREAS THAT WILL SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
SAN JUANS AND THE S MTNS. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY WILL
ALSO SEE A THREAT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. OVER THE C MTNS...TELLER
COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL ALSO OCCUR...BUT THE FUELS IN THESE AREAS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CARRYING FIRE...SO NO RED FLAG WARNING IS
BEING ISSUED FOR THESE REGIONS.
TOMORROW MORNING...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR E
COUNTIES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE PRONOUNCED OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED SO I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THREAT OF CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS.
IT WILL BE HOT TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS THAT WE WILL SEE TOMORROW WILL BE PASSING CIRRUS
CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR THE
EXTENDED SOLUTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON SWINGING THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH GENERAL TRFINESS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
FIRST OFF...FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY SHOULD BE
WARM OVERNIGHT AND HOT THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING 90 F
FOR THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SE CORNER OF
THE STATE SAT AFTN AND EVE. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE ONSET OF PCPN FOR THE CONTDVD WILL BE SAT
MORN...THOUGH SLOW AT FIRST. FEEL THAT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE CO/KS BORDER...SO INITIALLY CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN
INTO THE REGION SUN...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...LINGERING
CONVECTION CHANCES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN AND
MON. MAX TEMPS ON MON SHOULD BE AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON TUES AND WED AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE HI PRES RIDGE THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS
COLORADO ON THU. THIS WILL USHER IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR
TUE...THEN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WED AND THU. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
INDICATE A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ON
THU...SO INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGHEST PEAKS
THU AFTN AND EVE. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ISOLD THUNDER NORTH OF
KCOS MAY BRING SOME GUSTY NW WINDS TO KCOS.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTY SW SYNOPTIC WINDS...25
KNOTS...OCCUR AT KCOS AND KALS. LIGHTER SSW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KPUB.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ222>225.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ233-237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 170250
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
850 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
...FIRE WX CONCERNS INCREASING...
CURRENTLY
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM OVER NE CO. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED OVER THE C MTNS AND THE N SXNS OF THE PIKES
PEAK REGION. A WEAK DRY LINE WAS LOCATED GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM
EADS TO LA JUNTA TO SPRINGFIELD. A LINE OF Q WERE NOTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND A FEW WEAK ECHOES WERE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
AROUND 2 PM.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT IS THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS TO FORM ON THE DRYLINE OUT
EAST. SOME GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT THIS WHILE OTHERS WERE REMAINING
DRY. MARGINAL CAPE AND SHEAR WERE NOTED OVER THIS REGION AND TD/S
WERE IN THE MID 40S. IF ANYTHING DOES POP BELIEVE SVR THREAT WOULD
BE ON THE LOW END OF THE SCALE WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
AS FOR THE WALDO...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELIEVE ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE BELOW 0.10 INCHES.
LATER THIS EVENING DOWNWARD VV ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. THE DRYLINE IS
FCST TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...
MAIN CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD IS FIRE WX. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GO
WELL BELOW THE 15% CRITERIA BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE
(G30 MPH). BEST AREAS THAT WILL SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
SAN JUANS AND THE S MTNS. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY WILL
ALSO SEE A THREAT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. OVER THE C MTNS...TELLER
COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL ALSO OCCUR...BUT THE FUELS IN THESE AREAS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CARRYING FIRE...SO NO RED FLAG WARNING IS
BEING ISSUED FOR THESE REGIONS.
TOMORROW MORNING...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR E
COUNTIES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE PRONOUNCED OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED SO I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THREAT OF CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS.
IT WILL BE HOT TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS THAT WE WILL SEE TOMORROW WILL BE PASSING CIRRUS
CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR THE
EXTENDED SOLUTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON SWINGING THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH GENERAL TRFINESS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
FIRST OFF...FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY SHOULD BE
WARM OVERNIGHT AND HOT THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING 90 F
FOR THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SE CORNER OF
THE STATE SAT AFTN AND EVE. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE ONSET OF PCPN FOR THE CONTDVD WILL BE SAT
MORN...THOUGH SLOW AT FIRST. FEEL THAT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE CO/KS BORDER...SO INITIALLY CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN
INTO THE REGION SUN...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...LINGERING
CONVECTION CHANCES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN AND
MON. MAX TEMPS ON MON SHOULD BE AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON TUES AND WED AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE HI PRES RIDGE THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS
COLORADO ON THU. THIS WILL USHER IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR
TUE...THEN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WED AND THU. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
INDICATE A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ON
THU...SO INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGHEST PEAKS
THU AFTN AND EVE. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ISOLD THUNDER NORTH OF
KCOS MAY BRING SOME GUSTY NW WINDS TO KCOS.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTY SW SYNOPTIC WINDS...25
KNOTS...OCCUR AT KCOS AND KALS. LIGHTER SSW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KPUB.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ222>225.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ233-237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 162344
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
544 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
...FIRE WX CONCERNS INCREASING...
CURRENTLY
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM OVER NE CO. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED OVER THE C MTNS AND THE N SXNS OF THE PIKES
PEAK REGION. A WEAK DRY LINE WAS LOCATED GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM
EADS TO LA JUNTA TO SPRINGFIELD. A LINE OF Q WERE NOTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND A FEW WEAK ECHOES WERE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
AROUND 2 PM.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT IS THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS TO FORM ON THE DRYLINE OUT
EAST. SOME GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT THIS WHILE OTHERS WERE REMAINING
DRY. MARGINAL CAPE AND SHEAR WERE NOTED OVER THIS REGION AND TD/S
WERE IN THE MID 40S. IF ANYTHING DOES POP BELIEVE SVR THREAT WOULD
BE ON THE LOW END OF THE SCALE WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
AS FOR THE WALDO...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELIEVE ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE BELOW 0.10 INCHES.
LATER THIS EVENING DOWNWARD VV ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. THE DRYLINE IS
FCST TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...
MAIN CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD IS FIRE WX. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GO
WELL BELOW THE 15% CRITERIA BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE
(G30 MPH). BEST AREAS THAT WILL SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
SAN JUANS AND THE S MTNS. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY WILL
ALSO SEE A THREAT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. OVER THE C MTNS...TELLER
COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL ALSO OCCUR...BUT THE FUELS IN THESE AREAS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CARRYING FIRE...SO NO RED FLAG WARNING IS
BEING ISSUED FOR THESE REGIONS.
TOMORROW MORNING...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR E
COUNTIES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE PRONOUNCED OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED SO I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THREAT OF CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS.
IT WILL BE HOT TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS THAT WE WILL SEE TOMORROW WILL BE PASSING CIRRUS
CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR THE
EXTENDED SOLUTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON SWINGING THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH GENERAL TRFINESS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
FIRST OFF...FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY SHOULD BE
WARM OVERNIGHT AND HOT THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING 90 F
FOR THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SE CORNER OF
THE STATE SAT AFTN AND EVE. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE ONSET OF PCPN FOR THE CONTDVD WILL BE SAT
MORN...THOUGH SLOW AT FIRST. FEEL THAT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE CO/KS BORDER...SO INITIALLY CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN
INTO THE REGION SUN...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...LINGERING
CONVECTION CHANCES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN AND
MON. MAX TEMPS ON MON SHOULD BE AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON TUES AND WED AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE HI PRES RIDGE THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS
COLORADO ON THU. THIS WILL USHER IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR
TUE...THEN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WED AND THU. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
INDICATE A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ON
THU...SO INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGHEST PEAKS
THU AFTN AND EVE. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ISOLD THUNDER NORTH OF
KCOS MAY BRING SOME GUSTY NW WINDS TO KCOS.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTY SW SYNOPTIC WINDS...25
KNOTS...OCCUR AT KCOS AND KALS. LIGHTER SSW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KPUB.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ222>225.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ233-237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
| 
