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000
FXUS65 KPUB 182336
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
536 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE SW MTS. ALSO PULLED
BACK POPS FROM THE RATON MESA LATER TONIGHT...AS MOST PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN IN NM. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

CURRENTLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WY AND CO
TODAY...WHILE THE REMNANT OF ODILE WAS GRADUALLY TRACKING EAST INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NM. PLENTY OF SUN AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 F FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS OF 245 PM...A FEW CU HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REPORTED YET.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING ON
KEEPING ODILE AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH JUST A HINT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CREEPING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH
TOMORROW. THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE TAP MEANS THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER IS
PROBABLY THE BEST BET...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTN TOMORROW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THIS SOLUTION ALSO MEANS THAT MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO READINGS RECORDED TODAY. LOOK FOR
MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 F FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 70S OVER THE
HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW
SETS UP OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. COULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTING
TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY.

NEXT TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH NORTHERN STREAM BEING FAIRLY
ACTIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH ANY OF THESE
SYSTEMS SO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
THE PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 182336
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
536 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE SW MTS. ALSO PULLED
BACK POPS FROM THE RATON MESA LATER TONIGHT...AS MOST PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN IN NM. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

CURRENTLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WY AND CO
TODAY...WHILE THE REMNANT OF ODILE WAS GRADUALLY TRACKING EAST INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NM. PLENTY OF SUN AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 F FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS OF 245 PM...A FEW CU HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REPORTED YET.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING ON
KEEPING ODILE AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH JUST A HINT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CREEPING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH
TOMORROW. THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE TAP MEANS THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER IS
PROBABLY THE BEST BET...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTN TOMORROW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THIS SOLUTION ALSO MEANS THAT MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO READINGS RECORDED TODAY. LOOK FOR
MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 F FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 70S OVER THE
HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW
SETS UP OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. COULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTING
TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY.

NEXT TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH NORTHERN STREAM BEING FAIRLY
ACTIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH ANY OF THESE
SYSTEMS SO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
THE PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 182329
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
529 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

CURRENTLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WY AND CO
TODAY...WHILE THE REMNANT OF ODILE WAS GRADUALLY TRACKING EAST INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NM. PLENTY OF SUN AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 F FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS OF 245 PM...A FEW CU HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REPORTED YET.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING ON
KEEPING ODILE AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH JUST A HINT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CREEPING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH
TOMORROW. THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE TAP MEANS THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER IS
PROBABLY THE BEST BET...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTN TOMORROW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THIS SOLUTION ALSO MEANS THAT MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO READINGS RECORDED TODAY. LOOK FOR
MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 F FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 70S OVER THE
HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW
SETS UP OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. COULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTING
TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY.

NEXT TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH NORTHERN STREAM BEING FAIRLY
ACTIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH ANY OF THESE
SYSTEMS SO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
THE PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 182329
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
529 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

CURRENTLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WY AND CO
TODAY...WHILE THE REMNANT OF ODILE WAS GRADUALLY TRACKING EAST INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NM. PLENTY OF SUN AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 F FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS OF 245 PM...A FEW CU HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REPORTED YET.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING ON
KEEPING ODILE AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH JUST A HINT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CREEPING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH
TOMORROW. THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE TAP MEANS THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER IS
PROBABLY THE BEST BET...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTN TOMORROW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THIS SOLUTION ALSO MEANS THAT MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO READINGS RECORDED TODAY. LOOK FOR
MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 F FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 70S OVER THE
HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW
SETS UP OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. COULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTING
TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY.

NEXT TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH NORTHERN STREAM BEING FAIRLY
ACTIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH ANY OF THESE
SYSTEMS SO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
THE PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 182110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
310 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

CURRENTLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WY AND CO
TODAY...WHILE THE REMNANT OF ODILE WAS GRADUALLY TRACKING EAST INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NM. PLENTY OF SUN AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 F FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS OF 245 PM...A FEW CU HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REPORTED YET.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING ON
KEEPING ODILE AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH JUST A HINT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CREEPING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH
TOMORROW. THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE TAP MEANS THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER IS
PROBABLY THE BEST BET...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTN TOMORROW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THIS SOLUTION ALSO MEANS THAT MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO READINGS RECORDED TODAY. LOOK FOR
MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 F FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 70S OVER THE
HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW
SETS UP OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. COULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTING
TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY.

NEXT TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH NORTHERN STREAM BEING FAIRLY
ACTIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH ANY OF THESE
SYSTEMS SO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS EVE...AND
ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTS TO
40 KTS AND CG LTG.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 182110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
310 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

CURRENTLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WY AND CO
TODAY...WHILE THE REMNANT OF ODILE WAS GRADUALLY TRACKING EAST INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NM. PLENTY OF SUN AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 F FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS OF 245 PM...A FEW CU HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REPORTED YET.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING ON
KEEPING ODILE AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH JUST A HINT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CREEPING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH
TOMORROW. THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE TAP MEANS THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER IS
PROBABLY THE BEST BET...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTN TOMORROW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THIS SOLUTION ALSO MEANS THAT MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO READINGS RECORDED TODAY. LOOK FOR
MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 F FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 70S OVER THE
HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW
SETS UP OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. COULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTING
TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY.

NEXT TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH NORTHERN STREAM BEING FAIRLY
ACTIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH ANY OF THESE
SYSTEMS SO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS EVE...AND
ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTS TO
40 KTS AND CG LTG.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 181706
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

A UPR LEVEL RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVER CO TODAY.  WITH WARM AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER THE SERN PLAINS AND UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
AND 5+ DEGREES IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE AREA TODAY...WITH POSSIBLY JUST
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD.

TONIGHT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MSTR
AND PCPN CHANCES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...REACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN
BORDER AREAS...MAINLY SRN LAS ANIMAS AND COSTILLA COUNTIES.
THUS...WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD POPS IN THESE AREAS. WILL ALSO LEAVE SOME
ISOLD POPS OVR THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS...AS THE 4KM WRF IS SUGGESTING
THIS COULD OCCUR...AND TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED AND COOLER LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA HAVING THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF BEING IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION FROM ODILE DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...NEXT NORTHERNLY SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER MANY
LOCATIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

NEXT METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF IMPACT THAT CLOSED
UPPER LOW(INITIALLY CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH AT 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY) WILL
HAVE ON THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

LATEST FORECAST THINKING IS THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL BE
NOTED OVER MANY PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY...BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY(ESPECIALLY
EASTERN SECTIONS).

FINALLY...WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONGER TERM SLATED FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE CONTDVD LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE...AND ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND CG LTG.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 181706
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

A UPR LEVEL RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVER CO TODAY.  WITH WARM AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER THE SERN PLAINS AND UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
AND 5+ DEGREES IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE AREA TODAY...WITH POSSIBLY JUST
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD.

TONIGHT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MSTR
AND PCPN CHANCES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...REACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN
BORDER AREAS...MAINLY SRN LAS ANIMAS AND COSTILLA COUNTIES.
THUS...WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD POPS IN THESE AREAS. WILL ALSO LEAVE SOME
ISOLD POPS OVR THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS...AS THE 4KM WRF IS SUGGESTING
THIS COULD OCCUR...AND TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED AND COOLER LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA HAVING THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF BEING IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION FROM ODILE DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...NEXT NORTHERNLY SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER MANY
LOCATIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

NEXT METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF IMPACT THAT CLOSED
UPPER LOW(INITIALLY CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH AT 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY) WILL
HAVE ON THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

LATEST FORECAST THINKING IS THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL BE
NOTED OVER MANY PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY...BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY(ESPECIALLY
EASTERN SECTIONS).

FINALLY...WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONGER TERM SLATED FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE CONTDVD LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE...AND ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND CG LTG.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 181034
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
434 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

A UPR LEVEL RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVER CO TODAY.  WITH WARM AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER THE SERN PLAINS AND UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
AND 5+ DEGREES IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE AREA TODAY...WITH POSSIBLY JUST
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD.

TONIGHT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MSTR
AND PCPN CHANCES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...REACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN
BORDER AREAS...MAINLY SRN LAS ANIMAS AND COSTILLA COUNTIES.
THUS...WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD POPS IN THESE AREAS. WILL ALSO LEAVE SOME
ISOLD POPS OVR THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS...AS THE 4KM WRF IS SUGGESTING
THIS COULD OCCUR...AND TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED AND COOLER LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA HAVING THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF BEING IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION FROM ODILE DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...NEXT NORTHERNLY SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER MANY
LOCATIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

NEXT METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF IMPACT THAT CLOSED
UPPER LOW(INITIALLY CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH AT 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY) WILL
HAVE ON THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

LATEST FORECAST THINKING IS THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL BE
NOTED OVER MANY PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY...BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY(ESPECIALLY
EASTERN SECTIONS).

FINALLY...WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONGER TERM SLATED FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

WITH A RELATIVELY DRY UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVER THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 180556
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1156 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED TO TWEAK POPS A BIT...REMOVING MENTIONABLE POPS
FROM KCOS. SHOULD SEE ALL SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY DIE OFF IN A COUPLE
HOURS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK...LOOKS PRETTY QUIET NEXT 24
HOURS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FROM EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTY...NORTHEAST INTO EL PASO COUNTY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL
KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOVING TOO MUCH.  ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE
TERRAIN.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  CONVECTION THAT IS
CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN
SETS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL RAPIDLY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.  DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RATHER ISOLATED.  MOST MODELS HOLD OFF ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AROUND 21Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PORTION PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MOST MODEL SOLUTION MOVE THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NM INTO SW KS BY FRI EVENING...THOUGH
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER ERRATIC THE LAST FEW DAYS...KEEPS
THE CIRCULATION FARTHER SOUTH OVER ERN NM/W TX. STILL APPEARS
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS DURING THE DAY FRI
WILL BE ALONG THE NM BORDER IN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO INCH APPEAR
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MUCH LESS ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DON`T ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FRI SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGF
OFF OF MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BRIEFLY RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES
SAT/SUN...BEFORE WESTERN U.S. CUT OFF LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE E-SE OVER THE WEEKEND....AND WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER THE HIGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AREA-WIDE ON SUN AS SOUTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS. MAX
TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN LOOK SEASONABLY COOL...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LOW LIFTS E-NE OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA MOST LOCATIONS MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST FORCING THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUE...THOUGH SOME STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE KS BORDER. DRIER CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THEN DEVELOP WED AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGE REBUILDS. MAX TEMPS WILL
STAY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO AVN CONCERNS NEXT 24-30 HOURS...SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 180556
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1156 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED TO TWEAK POPS A BIT...REMOVING MENTIONABLE POPS
FROM KCOS. SHOULD SEE ALL SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY DIE OFF IN A COUPLE
HOURS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK...LOOKS PRETTY QUIET NEXT 24
HOURS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FROM EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTY...NORTHEAST INTO EL PASO COUNTY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL
KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOVING TOO MUCH.  ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE
TERRAIN.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  CONVECTION THAT IS
CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN
SETS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL RAPIDLY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.  DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RATHER ISOLATED.  MOST MODELS HOLD OFF ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AROUND 21Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PORTION PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MOST MODEL SOLUTION MOVE THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NM INTO SW KS BY FRI EVENING...THOUGH
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER ERRATIC THE LAST FEW DAYS...KEEPS
THE CIRCULATION FARTHER SOUTH OVER ERN NM/W TX. STILL APPEARS
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS DURING THE DAY FRI
WILL BE ALONG THE NM BORDER IN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO INCH APPEAR
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MUCH LESS ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DON`T ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FRI SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGF
OFF OF MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BRIEFLY RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES
SAT/SUN...BEFORE WESTERN U.S. CUT OFF LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE E-SE OVER THE WEEKEND....AND WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER THE HIGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AREA-WIDE ON SUN AS SOUTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS. MAX
TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN LOOK SEASONABLY COOL...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LOW LIFTS E-NE OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA MOST LOCATIONS MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST FORCING THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUE...THOUGH SOME STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE KS BORDER. DRIER CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THEN DEVELOP WED AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGE REBUILDS. MAX TEMPS WILL
STAY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO AVN CONCERNS NEXT 24-30 HOURS...SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 180010
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
610 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED TO TWEAK POPS A BIT...REMOVING MENTIONABLE POPS
FROM KCOS. SHOULD SEE ALL SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY DIE OFF IN A COUPLE
HOURS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK...LOOKS PRETTY QUIET NEXT 24
HOURS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FROM EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTY...NORTHEAST INTO EL PASO COUNTY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL
KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOVING TOO MUCH.  ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE
TERRAIN.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  CONVECTION THAT IS
CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN
SETS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL RAPIDLY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.  DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RATHER ISOLATED.  MOST MODELS HOLD OFF ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AROUND 21Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PORTION PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MOST MODEL SOLUTION MOVE THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NM INTO SW KS BY FRI EVENING...THOUGH
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER ERRATIC THE LAST FEW DAYS...KEEPS
THE CIRCULATION FARTHER SOUTH OVER ERN NM/W TX. STILL APPEARS
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS DURING THE DAY FRI
WILL BE ALONG THE NM BORDER IN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO INCH APPEAR
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MUCH LESS ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DON`T ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FRI SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGF
OFF OF MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BRIEFLY RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES
SAT/SUN...BEFORE WESTERN U.S. CUT OFF LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE E-SE OVER THE WEEKEND....AND WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER THE HIGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AREA-WIDE ON SUN AS SOUTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS. MAX
TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN LOOK SEASONABLY COOL...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LOW LIFTS E-NE OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA MOST LOCATIONS MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST FORCING THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUE...THOUGH SOME STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE KS BORDER. DRIER CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THEN DEVELOP WED AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGE REBUILDS. MAX TEMPS WILL
STAY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW FOR
ALL OF SE CO. ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS/TS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
HYR TRRN ON THU. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 180010
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
610 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED TO TWEAK POPS A BIT...REMOVING MENTIONABLE POPS
FROM KCOS. SHOULD SEE ALL SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY DIE OFF IN A COUPLE
HOURS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK...LOOKS PRETTY QUIET NEXT 24
HOURS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FROM EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTY...NORTHEAST INTO EL PASO COUNTY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL
KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOVING TOO MUCH.  ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE
TERRAIN.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  CONVECTION THAT IS
CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN
SETS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL RAPIDLY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.  DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RATHER ISOLATED.  MOST MODELS HOLD OFF ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AROUND 21Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PORTION PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MOST MODEL SOLUTION MOVE THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NM INTO SW KS BY FRI EVENING...THOUGH
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER ERRATIC THE LAST FEW DAYS...KEEPS
THE CIRCULATION FARTHER SOUTH OVER ERN NM/W TX. STILL APPEARS
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS DURING THE DAY FRI
WILL BE ALONG THE NM BORDER IN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO INCH APPEAR
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MUCH LESS ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DON`T ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FRI SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGF
OFF OF MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BRIEFLY RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES
SAT/SUN...BEFORE WESTERN U.S. CUT OFF LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE E-SE OVER THE WEEKEND....AND WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER THE HIGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AREA-WIDE ON SUN AS SOUTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS. MAX
TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN LOOK SEASONABLY COOL...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LOW LIFTS E-NE OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA MOST LOCATIONS MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST FORCING THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUE...THOUGH SOME STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE KS BORDER. DRIER CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THEN DEVELOP WED AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGE REBUILDS. MAX TEMPS WILL
STAY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW FOR
ALL OF SE CO. ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS/TS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
HYR TRRN ON THU. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 172341
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
541 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED TO TWEAK POPS A BIT...REMOVING MENTIONABLE POPS
FROM KCOS. SHOULD SEE ALL SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY DIE OFF IN A COUPLE
HOURS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK...LOOKS PRETTY QUIET NEXT 24
HOURS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FROM EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTY...NORTHEAST INTO EL PASO COUNTY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL
KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOVING TOO MUCH.  ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE
TERRAIN.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  CONVECTION THAT IS
CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN
SETS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL RAPIDLY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.  DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RATHER ISOLATED.  MOST MODELS HOLD OFF ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AROUND 21Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PORTION PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MOST MODEL SOLUTION MOVE THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NM INTO SW KS BY FRI EVENING...THOUGH
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER ERRATIC THE LAST FEW DAYS...KEEPS
THE CIRCULATION FARTHER SOUTH OVER ERN NM/W TX. STILL APPEARS
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS DURING THE DAY FRI
WILL BE ALONG THE NM BORDER IN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO INCH APPEAR
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MUCH LESS ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DON`T ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FRI SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGF
OFF OF MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BRIEFLY RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES
SAT/SUN...BEFORE WESTERN U.S. CUT OFF LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE E-SE OVER THE WEEKEND....AND WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER THE HIGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AREA-WIDE ON SUN AS SOUTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS. MAX
TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN LOOK SEASONABLY COOL...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LOW LIFTS E-NE OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA MOST LOCATIONS MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST FORCING THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUE...THOUGH SOME STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE KS BORDER. DRIER CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THEN DEVELOP WED AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGE REBUILDS. MAX TEMPS WILL
STAY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY
NEAR KCOS.  STORMS SHOULD NOT IMPACT KPUB OR KALS...HOWEVER ONE OR
TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF KCOS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON EVENING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 172124
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
324 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FROM EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTY...NORTHEAST INTO EL PASO COUNTY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL
KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOVING TOO MUCH.  ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE
TERRAIN.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  CONVECTION THAT IS
CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN
SETS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL RAPIDLY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.  DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RATHER ISOLATED.  MOST MODELS HOLD OFF ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AROUND 21Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PORTION PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MOST MODEL SOLUTION MOVE THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NM INTO SW KS BY FRI EVENING...THOUGH
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER ERRATIC THE LAST FEW DAYS...KEEPS
THE CIRCULATION FARTHER SOUTH OVER ERN NM/W TX. STILL APPEARS
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS DURING THE DAY FRI
WILL BE ALONG THE NM BORDER IN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO INCH APPEAR
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MUCH LESS ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DON`T ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FRI SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGF
OFF OF MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BRIEFLY RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES
SAT/SUN...BEFORE WESTERN U.S. CUT OFF LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE E-SE OVER THE WEEKEND....AND WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER THE HIGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AREA-WIDE ON SUN AS SOUTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS. MAX
TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN LOOK SEASONABLY COOL...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LOW LIFTS E-NE OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA MOST LOCATIONS MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST FORCING THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUE...THOUGH SOME STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE KS BORDER. DRIER CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THEN DEVELOP WED AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGE REBUILDS. MAX TEMPS WILL
STAY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY
NEAR KCOS.  STORMS SHOULD NOT IMPACT KPUB OR KALS...HOWEVER ONE OR
TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF KCOS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON EVENING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 172124
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
324 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FROM EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTY...NORTHEAST INTO EL PASO COUNTY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL
KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOVING TOO MUCH.  ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE
TERRAIN.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  CONVECTION THAT IS
CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN
SETS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL RAPIDLY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.  DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RATHER ISOLATED.  MOST MODELS HOLD OFF ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AROUND 21Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PORTION PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MOST MODEL SOLUTION MOVE THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NM INTO SW KS BY FRI EVENING...THOUGH
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER ERRATIC THE LAST FEW DAYS...KEEPS
THE CIRCULATION FARTHER SOUTH OVER ERN NM/W TX. STILL APPEARS
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS DURING THE DAY FRI
WILL BE ALONG THE NM BORDER IN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO INCH APPEAR
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MUCH LESS ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DON`T ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FRI SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGF
OFF OF MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BRIEFLY RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES
SAT/SUN...BEFORE WESTERN U.S. CUT OFF LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE E-SE OVER THE WEEKEND....AND WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER THE HIGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AREA-WIDE ON SUN AS SOUTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS. MAX
TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN LOOK SEASONABLY COOL...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LOW LIFTS E-NE OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA MOST LOCATIONS MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST FORCING THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUE...THOUGH SOME STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE KS BORDER. DRIER CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THEN DEVELOP WED AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGE REBUILDS. MAX TEMPS WILL
STAY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY
NEAR KCOS.  STORMS SHOULD NOT IMPACT KPUB OR KALS...HOWEVER ONE OR
TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF KCOS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON EVENING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 171944
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
144 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS SPARKED OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...FROM EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY...NORTHEAST
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO PERCOLATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING
WITH SUNSET. ELSEWHERE...THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
OTHER UPDATES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDING DURING THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK DATA INDICATES THAT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF FORMER HURRICANE ODILE
COVERING MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL MID-SEPTEMBER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GRACING
SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY
HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS PROJECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE TRACK OVR AZ AND NM.  THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTDVD IN THE AFTERNOON. MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR SRN AREAS OF CO THU NIGHT
AND FRI. SO WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SRN BORDER. ALSO ON FRI...AN UPR TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MSTR ALONG THE CONTDVD ALONG
WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI WL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
AN UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES
WHICH SENDS A FRONT INTO ERN CO EARLY SAT.  MSTR LOOKS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED FOR SAT...BUT WL STILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR
SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCT PCPN OVR MTN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS WL COOL TO AROUND AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS.

SUN AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVR NV...WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR CO.
BY MON MORNING THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TRACK INTO NRN UT...AND THEN
INTO WRN WY BY MON EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS UPR LOW...MSTR WL
INCREASE OVR CO BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  MON NIGHT THE WEAKENING UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVR CO...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL NOT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 171944
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
144 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS SPARKED OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...FROM EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY...NORTHEAST
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO PERCOLATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING
WITH SUNSET. ELSEWHERE...THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
OTHER UPDATES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDING DURING THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK DATA INDICATES THAT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF FORMER HURRICANE ODILE
COVERING MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL MID-SEPTEMBER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GRACING
SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY
HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS PROJECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE TRACK OVR AZ AND NM.  THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTDVD IN THE AFTERNOON. MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR SRN AREAS OF CO THU NIGHT
AND FRI. SO WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SRN BORDER. ALSO ON FRI...AN UPR TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MSTR ALONG THE CONTDVD ALONG
WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI WL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
AN UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES
WHICH SENDS A FRONT INTO ERN CO EARLY SAT.  MSTR LOOKS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED FOR SAT...BUT WL STILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR
SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCT PCPN OVR MTN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS WL COOL TO AROUND AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS.

SUN AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVR NV...WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR CO.
BY MON MORNING THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TRACK INTO NRN UT...AND THEN
INTO WRN WY BY MON EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS UPR LOW...MSTR WL
INCREASE OVR CO BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  MON NIGHT THE WEAKENING UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVR CO...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL NOT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 171721
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDING DURING THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK DATA INDICATES THAT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF FORMER HURRICANE ODILE
COVERING MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL MID-SEPTEMBER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GRACING
SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY
HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS PROJECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE TRACK OVR AZ AND NM.  THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTDVD IN THE AFTERNOON. MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR SRN AREAS OF CO THU NIGHT
AND FRI. SO WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SRN BORDER. ALSO ON FRI...AN UPR TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MSTR ALONG THE CONTDVD ALONG
WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI WL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
AN UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES
WHICH SENDS A FRONT INTO ERN CO EARLY SAT.  MSTR LOOKS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED FOR SAT...BUT WL STILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR
SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCT PCPN OVR MTN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS WL COOL TO AROUND AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS.

SUN AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVR NV...WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR CO.
BY MON MORNING THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TRACK INTO NRN UT...AND THEN
INTO WRN WY BY MON EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS UPR LOW...MSTR WL
INCREASE OVR CO BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  MON NIGHT THE WEAKENING UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVR CO...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL NOT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 171721
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDING DURING THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK DATA INDICATES THAT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF FORMER HURRICANE ODILE
COVERING MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL MID-SEPTEMBER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GRACING
SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY
HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS PROJECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE TRACK OVR AZ AND NM.  THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTDVD IN THE AFTERNOON. MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR SRN AREAS OF CO THU NIGHT
AND FRI. SO WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SRN BORDER. ALSO ON FRI...AN UPR TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MSTR ALONG THE CONTDVD ALONG
WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI WL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
AN UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES
WHICH SENDS A FRONT INTO ERN CO EARLY SAT.  MSTR LOOKS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED FOR SAT...BUT WL STILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR
SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCT PCPN OVR MTN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS WL COOL TO AROUND AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS.

SUN AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVR NV...WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR CO.
BY MON MORNING THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TRACK INTO NRN UT...AND THEN
INTO WRN WY BY MON EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS UPR LOW...MSTR WL
INCREASE OVR CO BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  MON NIGHT THE WEAKENING UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVR CO...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL NOT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 171017
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
417 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDING DURING THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK DATA INDICATES THAT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF FORMER HURRICANE ODILE
COVERING MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL MID-SEPTEMBER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GRACING
SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY
HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS PROJECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE TRACK OVR AZ AND NM.  THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTDVD IN THE AFTERNOON. MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR SRN AREAS OF CO THU NIGHT
AND FRI. SO WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SRN BORDER. ALSO ON FRI...AN UPR TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MSTR ALONG THE CONTDVD ALONG
WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI WL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
AN UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES
WHICH SENDS A FRONT INTO ERN CO EARLY SAT.  MSTR LOOKS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED FOR SAT...BUT WL STILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR
SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCT PCPN OVR MTN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS WL COOL TO AROUND AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS.

SUN AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVR NV...WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR CO.
BY MON MORNING THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TRACK INTO NRN UT...AND THEN
INTO WRN WY BY MON EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS UPR LOW...MSTR WL
INCREASE OVR CO BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  MON NIGHT THE WEAKENING UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVR CO...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 171017
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
417 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDING DURING THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK DATA INDICATES THAT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF FORMER HURRICANE ODILE
COVERING MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL MID-SEPTEMBER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GRACING
SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY
HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS PROJECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE TRACK OVR AZ AND NM.  THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTDVD IN THE AFTERNOON. MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR SRN AREAS OF CO THU NIGHT
AND FRI. SO WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SRN BORDER. ALSO ON FRI...AN UPR TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MSTR ALONG THE CONTDVD ALONG
WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI WL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
AN UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES
WHICH SENDS A FRONT INTO ERN CO EARLY SAT.  MSTR LOOKS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED FOR SAT...BUT WL STILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR
SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCT PCPN OVR MTN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS WL COOL TO AROUND AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS.

SUN AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVR NV...WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR CO.
BY MON MORNING THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TRACK INTO NRN UT...AND THEN
INTO WRN WY BY MON EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS UPR LOW...MSTR WL
INCREASE OVR CO BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  MON NIGHT THE WEAKENING UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVR CO...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 170529
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SKY COVER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170529
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SKY COVER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 170117
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
717 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES NORTH.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170117
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
717 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES NORTH.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 162124
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
324 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES NORTH.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 162124
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
324 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES NORTH.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 161706
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO DEPICT AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES
NORTH. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 161706
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO DEPICT AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES
NORTH. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 161120
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
520 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO DEPICT AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BE NOTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DISSIPATING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN
ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED AT THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.  FOR THE  KALS
TAF SITE...PROJECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 161120
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
520 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO DEPICT AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BE NOTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DISSIPATING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN
ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED AT THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.  FOR THE  KALS
TAF SITE...PROJECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 161020
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BE NOTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DISSIPATING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN
ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED AT THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.  FOR THE  KALS
TAF SITE...PROJECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 161020
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BE NOTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DISSIPATING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN
ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED AT THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.  FOR THE  KALS
TAF SITE...PROJECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 160549
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST
GRIDS.  ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER/FOG COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN STRATUS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  WEST
OF THE STRATUS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH MOST SUNNY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
OVER THE PLAINS...THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MODELS ARE
STILL WANTING TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE PLAINS.  IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ON THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ON AREA ROADWAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASED MOVING
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE ANY STRATUS AND FOG LEFT ON
THE PLAINS QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WHILE FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH...THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVER AZ
AND NM THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. ACROSS COLORADO...VERY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SHALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AS TROPICAL MOISTURE/REMNANT
CIRCULATION CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ/NM. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY...EXPECT
ANOTHER RATER PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SEPT AS 700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE.

ON FRI...ODILE REMNANTS/MOISTURE FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT CO AS
PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GFS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION...TRACKING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD FROM NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRI. ECMWF INITIALLY SLOWER BY 12 HRS OR SO WITH THE CIRCULATION
FRI MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO CATCH UP THE GFS BY FRI EVENING. EURO
SOLUTION KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NM
FRI...THEN SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING. NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...SO
WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHICH
KEEPS POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MAX TEMPS COOL
SLIGHTLY FRI AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WEST COAST TROUGH SPLITS WITH NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS-
OFF AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S./SRN CALIFORNIA
REGION. SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN PLAINS. ALREADY
PRESENT OVER KCOS WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET. PATCHY STRATUS OVER
KPUB SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING BELOW 1000 FEET.
ALSO INCREASING FOG AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE MOST AREAS BY 16Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAY EXTEND PAST 16Z
IN SOME AREAS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 160549
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST
GRIDS.  ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER/FOG COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN STRATUS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  WEST
OF THE STRATUS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH MOST SUNNY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
OVER THE PLAINS...THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MODELS ARE
STILL WANTING TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE PLAINS.  IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ON THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ON AREA ROADWAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASED MOVING
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE ANY STRATUS AND FOG LEFT ON
THE PLAINS QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WHILE FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH...THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVER AZ
AND NM THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. ACROSS COLORADO...VERY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SHALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AS TROPICAL MOISTURE/REMNANT
CIRCULATION CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ/NM. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY...EXPECT
ANOTHER RATER PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SEPT AS 700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE.

ON FRI...ODILE REMNANTS/MOISTURE FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT CO AS
PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GFS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION...TRACKING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD FROM NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRI. ECMWF INITIALLY SLOWER BY 12 HRS OR SO WITH THE CIRCULATION
FRI MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO CATCH UP THE GFS BY FRI EVENING. EURO
SOLUTION KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NM
FRI...THEN SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING. NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...SO
WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHICH
KEEPS POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MAX TEMPS COOL
SLIGHTLY FRI AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WEST COAST TROUGH SPLITS WITH NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS-
OFF AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S./SRN CALIFORNIA
REGION. SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN PLAINS. ALREADY
PRESENT OVER KCOS WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET. PATCHY STRATUS OVER
KPUB SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING BELOW 1000 FEET.
ALSO INCREASING FOG AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE MOST AREAS BY 16Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAY EXTEND PAST 16Z
IN SOME AREAS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 160535
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN STRATUS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  WEST
OF THE STRATUS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH MOST SUNNY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
OVER THE PLAINS...THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MODELS ARE
STILL WANTING TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE PLAINS.  IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ON THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ON AREA ROADWAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASED MOVING
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE ANY STRATUS AND FOG LEFT ON
THE PLAINS QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WHILE FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH...THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVER AZ
AND NM THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. ACROSS COLORADO...VERY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SHALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AS TROPICAL MOISTURE/REMNANT
CIRCULATION CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ/NM. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY...EXPECT
ANOTHER RATER PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SEPT AS 700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE.

ON FRI...ODILE REMNANTS/MOISTURE FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT CO AS
PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GFS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION...TRACKING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD FROM NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRI. ECMWF INITIALLY SLOWER BY 12 HRS OR SO WITH THE CIRCULATION
FRI MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO CATCH UP THE GFS BY FRI EVENING. EURO
SOLUTION KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NM
FRI...THEN SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING. NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...SO
WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHICH
KEEPS POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MAX TEMPS COOL
SLIGHTLY FRI AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WEST COAST TROUGH SPLITS WITH NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS-
OFF AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S./SRN CALIFORNIA
REGION. SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN PLAINS. ALREADY
PRESENT OVER KCOS WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET. PATCHY STRATUS OVER
KPUB SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING BELOW 1000 FEET.
ALSO INCREASING FOG AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE MOST AREAS BY 16Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAY EXTEND PAST 16Z
IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




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