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000
FXUS65 KPUB 052109
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
209 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...WARMING UP TOMORROW...

SHORT TERM LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER SERN
CO AS LAST NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FOR THE COLD SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER
ARKANSAS...AND NEGATIVE READINGS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE BIG RIDGE
OVER THE W COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN REGION...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT TOMORROW...WITH
H7 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NR OR ABOVE ZERO DEG C BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PLEASANT SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR
THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EL PASO COUNTY WILL
REMAIN COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO THE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK.
ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SAT NIGHT AND SUN NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS THE DAKOTAS AND NE WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN
CO ON SUNDAY.  THE WEATHER WL BE DRY THRU THIS PERIOD BUT THE FRONT
WL BRING COOLER TEMPS ACRS MOST OF THE SERN CO PLAINS ON SUN.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH VALLEYS WL LIKELY SEE TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ON SAT.

FOR MONDAY THRU THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE
OVER THE WRN STATES...WITH CO BEING ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  IT WL BE DRY THRU THE WEEK WITH
WARMER TEMPS.  HIGHS WL BE AROUND AVERAGE ON MON...BUT WL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS...RESIDUAL SNOW PACK...AND
WARMING ALOFT...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FG/BR EARLY
SAT. BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT EXPLICIT MENTION OF
FG IN THE TAFS ATTM. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 052109
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
209 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...WARMING UP TOMORROW...

SHORT TERM LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER SERN
CO AS LAST NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FOR THE COLD SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER
ARKANSAS...AND NEGATIVE READINGS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE BIG RIDGE
OVER THE W COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN REGION...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT TOMORROW...WITH
H7 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NR OR ABOVE ZERO DEG C BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PLEASANT SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR
THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EL PASO COUNTY WILL
REMAIN COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO THE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK.
ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SAT NIGHT AND SUN NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS THE DAKOTAS AND NE WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN
CO ON SUNDAY.  THE WEATHER WL BE DRY THRU THIS PERIOD BUT THE FRONT
WL BRING COOLER TEMPS ACRS MOST OF THE SERN CO PLAINS ON SUN.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH VALLEYS WL LIKELY SEE TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ON SAT.

FOR MONDAY THRU THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE
OVER THE WRN STATES...WITH CO BEING ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  IT WL BE DRY THRU THE WEEK WITH
WARMER TEMPS.  HIGHS WL BE AROUND AVERAGE ON MON...BUT WL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS...RESIDUAL SNOW PACK...AND
WARMING ALOFT...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FG/BR EARLY
SAT. BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT EXPLICIT MENTION OF
FG IN THE TAFS ATTM. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 052109
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
209 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...WARMING UP TOMORROW...

SHORT TERM LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER SERN
CO AS LAST NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FOR THE COLD SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER
ARKANSAS...AND NEGATIVE READINGS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE BIG RIDGE
OVER THE W COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN REGION...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT TOMORROW...WITH
H7 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NR OR ABOVE ZERO DEG C BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PLEASANT SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR
THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EL PASO COUNTY WILL
REMAIN COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO THE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK.
ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SAT NIGHT AND SUN NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS THE DAKOTAS AND NE WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN
CO ON SUNDAY.  THE WEATHER WL BE DRY THRU THIS PERIOD BUT THE FRONT
WL BRING COOLER TEMPS ACRS MOST OF THE SERN CO PLAINS ON SUN.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH VALLEYS WL LIKELY SEE TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ON SAT.

FOR MONDAY THRU THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE
OVER THE WRN STATES...WITH CO BEING ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  IT WL BE DRY THRU THE WEEK WITH
WARMER TEMPS.  HIGHS WL BE AROUND AVERAGE ON MON...BUT WL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS...RESIDUAL SNOW PACK...AND
WARMING ALOFT...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FG/BR EARLY
SAT. BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT EXPLICIT MENTION OF
FG IN THE TAFS ATTM. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 051701
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1001 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED TO TRIM BACK POPS THIS MORNING...AS LIGHT SHSN CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE SOUTH OF HGWY 50. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY
18Z. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS TRIGGERED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NOTHING TOO GREAT...BUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES REPORTED
IN PARTS OF COLORADO SPRINGS AS IT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
PUEBLO AIRPORT PICKED UP 0.4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ITS PASSAGE.  NOW
MOST OF THE SNOW IS CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF PUEBLO...FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH UP TO 2
INCHES ON A LOCAL BASIS...UNDER THE HEAVIER...MORE PERSISTENT AREAS
OF SNOWFALL.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY...IF NOT ENTIRELY...SOUTH
OF THE BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  NOT TOO MUCH COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE REGION.  HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS MEANS WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP ALONG
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MORNING LOWS MILDER IN
THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE ROCKIES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE STATE WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE
WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS PRODUCE SOME STRONGER SFC
WINDS FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS...SO REMOVED THE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL MTS. THIS GLANCING BLOW WILL ACTUALLY EASE A COLD FRONT DOWN
THE E PLAINS SUN MORNING...DROPPING TEMPS ON SUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TEMPS REALIZED ON SAT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY STARTING MON...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. RELAXING WINDS AS WELL AS A WARMING TREND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES
AND SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 051701
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1001 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED TO TRIM BACK POPS THIS MORNING...AS LIGHT SHSN CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE SOUTH OF HGWY 50. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY
18Z. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS TRIGGERED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NOTHING TOO GREAT...BUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES REPORTED
IN PARTS OF COLORADO SPRINGS AS IT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
PUEBLO AIRPORT PICKED UP 0.4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ITS PASSAGE.  NOW
MOST OF THE SNOW IS CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF PUEBLO...FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH UP TO 2
INCHES ON A LOCAL BASIS...UNDER THE HEAVIER...MORE PERSISTENT AREAS
OF SNOWFALL.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY...IF NOT ENTIRELY...SOUTH
OF THE BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  NOT TOO MUCH COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE REGION.  HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS MEANS WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP ALONG
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MORNING LOWS MILDER IN
THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE ROCKIES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE STATE WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE
WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS PRODUCE SOME STRONGER SFC
WINDS FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS...SO REMOVED THE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL MTS. THIS GLANCING BLOW WILL ACTUALLY EASE A COLD FRONT DOWN
THE E PLAINS SUN MORNING...DROPPING TEMPS ON SUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TEMPS REALIZED ON SAT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY STARTING MON...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. RELAXING WINDS AS WELL AS A WARMING TREND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES
AND SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 051701
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1001 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED TO TRIM BACK POPS THIS MORNING...AS LIGHT SHSN CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE SOUTH OF HGWY 50. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY
18Z. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS TRIGGERED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NOTHING TOO GREAT...BUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES REPORTED
IN PARTS OF COLORADO SPRINGS AS IT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
PUEBLO AIRPORT PICKED UP 0.4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ITS PASSAGE.  NOW
MOST OF THE SNOW IS CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF PUEBLO...FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH UP TO 2
INCHES ON A LOCAL BASIS...UNDER THE HEAVIER...MORE PERSISTENT AREAS
OF SNOWFALL.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY...IF NOT ENTIRELY...SOUTH
OF THE BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  NOT TOO MUCH COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE REGION.  HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS MEANS WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP ALONG
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MORNING LOWS MILDER IN
THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE ROCKIES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE STATE WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE
WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS PRODUCE SOME STRONGER SFC
WINDS FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS...SO REMOVED THE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL MTS. THIS GLANCING BLOW WILL ACTUALLY EASE A COLD FRONT DOWN
THE E PLAINS SUN MORNING...DROPPING TEMPS ON SUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TEMPS REALIZED ON SAT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY STARTING MON...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. RELAXING WINDS AS WELL AS A WARMING TREND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES
AND SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 051553
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
853 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED TO TRIM BACK POPS THIS MORNING...AS LIGHT SHSN CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE SOUTH OF HGWY 50. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY
18Z. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS TRIGGERED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NOTHING TOO GREAT...BUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES REPORTED
IN PARTS OF COLORADO SPRINGS AS IT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
PUEBLO AIRPORT PICKED UP 0.4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ITS PASSAGE.  NOW
MOST OF THE SNOW IS CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF PUEBLO...FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH UP TO 2
INCHES ON A LOCAL BASIS...UNDER THE HEAVIER...MORE PERSISTENT AREAS
OF SNOWFALL.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY...IF NOT ENTIRELY...SOUTH
OF THE BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  NOT TOO MUCH COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE REGION.  HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS MEANS WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP ALONG
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MORNING LOWS MILDER IN
THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE ROCKIES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE STATE WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE
WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS PRODUCE SOME STRONGER SFC
WINDS FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS...SO REMOVED THE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL MTS. THIS GLANCING BLOW WILL ACTUALLY EASE A COLD FRONT DOWN
THE E PLAINS SUN MORNING...DROPPING TEMPS ON SUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TEMPS REALIZED ON SAT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY STARTING MON...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. RELAXING WINDS AS WELL AS A WARMING TREND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH.  THERE ARE ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FARTHER
WEST...BUT NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.  DISTURBANCE AND ANY SNOWFALL
SHOULD CLEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND VFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS AFTER THAT.

DISTURBANCE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...SO
THE WORST IS OVER IN THESE AREAS WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD
STILL BE A FEW STRAGGLER SNOW SHOWERS AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL ABOUT
15Z...BUT DRY SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

FOR THE KALS TAF...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SO FAR BYPASSED THE TERMINAL
SITE.  BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE.  UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
REGION BY 18Z...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A
LOW PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS POINT...TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 051057
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS TRIGGERED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NOTHING TOO GREAT...BUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES REPORTED
IN PARTS OF COLORADO SPRINGS AS IT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
PUEBLO AIRPORT PICKED UP 0.4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ITS PASSAGE.  NOW
MOST OF THE SNOW IS CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF PUEBLO...FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH UP TO 2
INCHES ON A LOCAL BASIS...UNDER THE HEAVIER...MORE PERSISTENT AREAS
OF SNOWFALL.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY...IF NOT ENTIRELY...SOUTH
OF THE BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  NOT TOO MUCH COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE REGION.  HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS MEANS WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP ALONG
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MORNING LOWS MILDER IN
THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE ROCKIES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE STATE WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE
WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS PRODUCE SOME STRONGER SFC
WINDS FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS...SO REMOVED THE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL MTS. THIS GLANCING BLOW WILL ACTUALLY EASE A COLD FRONT DOWN
THE E PLAINS SUN MORNING...DROPPING TEMPS ON SUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TEMPS REALIZED ON SAT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY STARTING MON...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. RELAXING WINDS AS WELL AS A WARMING TREND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH.  THERE ARE ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FARTHER
WEST...BUT NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.  DISTURBANCE AND ANY SNOWFALL
SHOULD CLEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND VFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS AFTER THAT.

DISTURBANCE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...SO
THE WORST IS OVER IN THESE AREAS WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD
STILL BE A FEW STRAGGLER SNOW SHOWERS AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL ABOUT
15Z...BUT DRY SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

FOR THE KALS TAF...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SO FAR BYPASSED THE TERMINAL
SITE.  BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE.  UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
REGION BY 18Z...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A
LOW PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS POINT...TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 051057
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS TRIGGERED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NOTHING TOO GREAT...BUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES REPORTED
IN PARTS OF COLORADO SPRINGS AS IT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
PUEBLO AIRPORT PICKED UP 0.4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ITS PASSAGE.  NOW
MOST OF THE SNOW IS CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF PUEBLO...FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH UP TO 2
INCHES ON A LOCAL BASIS...UNDER THE HEAVIER...MORE PERSISTENT AREAS
OF SNOWFALL.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY...IF NOT ENTIRELY...SOUTH
OF THE BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  NOT TOO MUCH COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE REGION.  HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS MEANS WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP ALONG
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MORNING LOWS MILDER IN
THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE ROCKIES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE STATE WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE
WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS PRODUCE SOME STRONGER SFC
WINDS FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS...SO REMOVED THE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL MTS. THIS GLANCING BLOW WILL ACTUALLY EASE A COLD FRONT DOWN
THE E PLAINS SUN MORNING...DROPPING TEMPS ON SUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TEMPS REALIZED ON SAT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY STARTING MON...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. RELAXING WINDS AS WELL AS A WARMING TREND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH.  THERE ARE ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FARTHER
WEST...BUT NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.  DISTURBANCE AND ANY SNOWFALL
SHOULD CLEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND VFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS AFTER THAT.

DISTURBANCE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...SO
THE WORST IS OVER IN THESE AREAS WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD
STILL BE A FEW STRAGGLER SNOW SHOWERS AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL ABOUT
15Z...BUT DRY SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

FOR THE KALS TAF...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SO FAR BYPASSED THE TERMINAL
SITE.  BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE.  UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
REGION BY 18Z...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A
LOW PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS POINT...TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 051057
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS TRIGGERED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NOTHING TOO GREAT...BUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES REPORTED
IN PARTS OF COLORADO SPRINGS AS IT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
PUEBLO AIRPORT PICKED UP 0.4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ITS PASSAGE.  NOW
MOST OF THE SNOW IS CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF PUEBLO...FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH UP TO 2
INCHES ON A LOCAL BASIS...UNDER THE HEAVIER...MORE PERSISTENT AREAS
OF SNOWFALL.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY...IF NOT ENTIRELY...SOUTH
OF THE BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  NOT TOO MUCH COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE REGION.  HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS MEANS WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP ALONG
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MORNING LOWS MILDER IN
THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE ROCKIES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE STATE WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE
WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS PRODUCE SOME STRONGER SFC
WINDS FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS...SO REMOVED THE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL MTS. THIS GLANCING BLOW WILL ACTUALLY EASE A COLD FRONT DOWN
THE E PLAINS SUN MORNING...DROPPING TEMPS ON SUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TEMPS REALIZED ON SAT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY STARTING MON...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. RELAXING WINDS AS WELL AS A WARMING TREND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH.  THERE ARE ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FARTHER
WEST...BUT NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.  DISTURBANCE AND ANY SNOWFALL
SHOULD CLEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND VFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS AFTER THAT.

DISTURBANCE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...SO
THE WORST IS OVER IN THESE AREAS WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD
STILL BE A FEW STRAGGLER SNOW SHOWERS AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL ABOUT
15Z...BUT DRY SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

FOR THE KALS TAF...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SO FAR BYPASSED THE TERMINAL
SITE.  BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE.  UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
REGION BY 18Z...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A
LOW PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS POINT...TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 050534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...

MAIN WX FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH CO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN UT AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SN SHOWERS IN ERN UT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW AMTS OUT
WEST HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS IN
LIQUID...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOME LEE SIDE COLUMN STRETCHING OCCURS. PV
ANALYSIS AND MODEL FORECASTS SHOW BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
OCCURRING IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST...SN PROBABILITIES LOOK
CONSIDERABLY LESS. THE LATEST HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO THIS POTENTIAL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER WRN PUEBLO COUNTY AROUND 09Z. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVE...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE REGARDLESS...STILL LOOKING AT
AROUND 1-3 INCHES FOR THE ERN MTS AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR
THE PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATING MORE LIKE 2-3 INCHES...BUT
FOR NOW WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT... SO DESPITE CONTINUED COLD
AIR ALOFT...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THEY WERE FOR LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...WILL SEE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY MID DAY. CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT
AND NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF AVERAGE. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW BELOW GUIDANCE AS MOS
VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO WARM FOR KPUB AND ESPECIALLY KCOS...WHERE
RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN THE HIGHS. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY 30S TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND 20S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IT
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK DESPITE THE COOLER THAN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE.  ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE STATE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WL STILL
BE DRY.  TEMPS ALOFT WL WARM ON SAT AND MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE WARMER
HIGH TEMPS.  MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS THAT ARE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH AREAS WITH LINGER SNOW COVER
MAY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE.  THE HIGH VALLEYS WL ALSO LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES...SENDING A FRONT INTO SERN CO.  AT THIS TIME...THE
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS.  IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ON SUN
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER.

AS THE UPR TROF OVR THE PLAINS STATES MOVES EASTWARD...AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES BY
MONDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THRU THE
COMING WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE
THAT SNOW...SOME ACCUMULATING...IS ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY...WITH LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO THREE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PRIMARILY AT KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 050534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...

MAIN WX FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH CO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN UT AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SN SHOWERS IN ERN UT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW AMTS OUT
WEST HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS IN
LIQUID...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOME LEE SIDE COLUMN STRETCHING OCCURS. PV
ANALYSIS AND MODEL FORECASTS SHOW BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
OCCURRING IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST...SN PROBABILITIES LOOK
CONSIDERABLY LESS. THE LATEST HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO THIS POTENTIAL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER WRN PUEBLO COUNTY AROUND 09Z. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVE...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE REGARDLESS...STILL LOOKING AT
AROUND 1-3 INCHES FOR THE ERN MTS AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR
THE PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATING MORE LIKE 2-3 INCHES...BUT
FOR NOW WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT... SO DESPITE CONTINUED COLD
AIR ALOFT...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THEY WERE FOR LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...WILL SEE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY MID DAY. CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT
AND NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF AVERAGE. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW BELOW GUIDANCE AS MOS
VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO WARM FOR KPUB AND ESPECIALLY KCOS...WHERE
RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN THE HIGHS. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY 30S TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND 20S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IT
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK DESPITE THE COOLER THAN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE.  ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE STATE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WL STILL
BE DRY.  TEMPS ALOFT WL WARM ON SAT AND MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE WARMER
HIGH TEMPS.  MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS THAT ARE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH AREAS WITH LINGER SNOW COVER
MAY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE.  THE HIGH VALLEYS WL ALSO LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES...SENDING A FRONT INTO SERN CO.  AT THIS TIME...THE
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS.  IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ON SUN
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER.

AS THE UPR TROF OVR THE PLAINS STATES MOVES EASTWARD...AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES BY
MONDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THRU THE
COMING WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE
THAT SNOW...SOME ACCUMULATING...IS ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY...WITH LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO THREE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PRIMARILY AT KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 050534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...

MAIN WX FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH CO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN UT AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SN SHOWERS IN ERN UT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW AMTS OUT
WEST HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS IN
LIQUID...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOME LEE SIDE COLUMN STRETCHING OCCURS. PV
ANALYSIS AND MODEL FORECASTS SHOW BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
OCCURRING IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST...SN PROBABILITIES LOOK
CONSIDERABLY LESS. THE LATEST HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO THIS POTENTIAL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER WRN PUEBLO COUNTY AROUND 09Z. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVE...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE REGARDLESS...STILL LOOKING AT
AROUND 1-3 INCHES FOR THE ERN MTS AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR
THE PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATING MORE LIKE 2-3 INCHES...BUT
FOR NOW WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT... SO DESPITE CONTINUED COLD
AIR ALOFT...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THEY WERE FOR LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...WILL SEE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY MID DAY. CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT
AND NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF AVERAGE. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW BELOW GUIDANCE AS MOS
VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO WARM FOR KPUB AND ESPECIALLY KCOS...WHERE
RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN THE HIGHS. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY 30S TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND 20S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IT
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK DESPITE THE COOLER THAN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE.  ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE STATE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WL STILL
BE DRY.  TEMPS ALOFT WL WARM ON SAT AND MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE WARMER
HIGH TEMPS.  MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS THAT ARE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH AREAS WITH LINGER SNOW COVER
MAY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE.  THE HIGH VALLEYS WL ALSO LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES...SENDING A FRONT INTO SERN CO.  AT THIS TIME...THE
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS.  IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ON SUN
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER.

AS THE UPR TROF OVR THE PLAINS STATES MOVES EASTWARD...AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES BY
MONDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THRU THE
COMING WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE
THAT SNOW...SOME ACCUMULATING...IS ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY...WITH LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO THREE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PRIMARILY AT KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 042114
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
214 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...

MAIN WX FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH CO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN UT AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SN SHOWERS IN ERN UT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW AMTS OUT
WEST HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS IN
LIQUID...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOME LEE SIDE COLUMN STRETCHING OCCURS. PV
ANALYSIS AND MODEL FORECASTS SHOW BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
OCCURRING IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST...SN PROBABILITIES LOOK
CONSIDERABLY LESS. THE LATEST HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO THIS POTENTIAL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER WRN PUEBLO COUNTY AROUND 09Z. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVE...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE REGARDLESS...STILL LOOKING AT
AROUND 1-3 INCHES FOR THE ERN MTS AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR
THE PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATING MORE LIKE 2-3 INCHES...BUT
FOR NOW WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT... SO DESPITE CONTINUED COLD
AIR ALOFT...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THEY WERE FOR LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...WILL SEE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY MID DAY. CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT
AND NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF AVERAGE. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW BELOW GUIDANCE AS MOS
VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO WARM FOR KPUB AND ESPECIALLY KCOS...WHERE
RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN THE HIGHS. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY 30S TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND 20S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IT
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK DESPITE THE COOLER THAN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE.  ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE STATE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WL STILL
BE DRY.  TEMPS ALOFT WL WARM ON SAT AND MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE WARMER
HIGH TEMPS.  MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS THAT ARE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH AREAS WITH LINGER SNOW COVER
MAY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE.  THE HIGH VALLEYS WL ALSO LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES...SENDING A FRONT INTO SERN CO.  AT THIS TIME...THE
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS.  IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ON SUN
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER.

AS THE UPR TROF OVR THE PLAINS STATES MOVES EASTWARD...AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES BY
MONDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THRU THE
COMING WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

STILL ON TARGET TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS
AND KPUB LATER TONIGHT. TIMING LOOKS A BIT LATER AND SNOW MAY BE A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...SO MAY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS TO
REFLECT THIS. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF IFR ESPECIALLY AT KCOS DUE TO
SHSN. ACCUMS GENERALLY LOOK LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH BUT POSSIBLY
UP TO TWO INCHES IF A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP AS SOME
COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR BY 12Z AND SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY 15Z OR SO. WILL STAY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE BALANCE OF FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041743
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1043 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED FCST/GRIDS TO DELAY TIMING OF POPS OVER THE DVD THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST OBS AND MODELS SHOW PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER UT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AT OR JUST BEFORE 00Z. MAIN CHANGE IN
POPS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND ERN MTS. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SN
OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGION...BUT QPF AMTS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIGHT...SO EXPECT ACCUMS TO REMAIN IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR
THE MTS AND TRACE TO INCH FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AREAS
IN THE BANANA BELT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ARE
THE WARMEST AREAS.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TWO UPPER
DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE
FIRST...CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.  AS IT APPROACHES...EXPECT TO
SEE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING AT AN INCH OR
TWO FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO TONIGHT.  MODELS HAVING A HARDER
TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.  SEVERAL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND
DROP IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  DID NOT
GO OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH LOW POPS
INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...DROPPING SOUTH ALONG I-25...AND
THEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MORNING.  SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE AN INCH OR
TWO...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW PACK WILL BE
COLDEST AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN THESE
AREAS.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY FRIDAY IS LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS...BUT NOT BY MUCH.  DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.  MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILDER DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEAK.  AFTER WELL BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS MOST OF THE WEEK...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING TO THE EAST AGAIN AS STRONGLY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST FORCES COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS.  EASTERN COLORADO WILL NOT SEE THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR BUT INSTEAD WILL JUST GET CLIPPED BY THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
AIR MASS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL FALL BACK BELOW
AVERAGE AGAIN BUT NOT BY MUCH...AND THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ALREADY
BE SHIFTING EAST OF COLORADO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.  DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT NEAR
AVERAGE ON MONDAY...BUT WARMING TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHSN TO THE CONTDVD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME -SN TO THE ERN MTS AND I-25
CORRIDOR TONIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS
ABOUT 40 PERCENT...SO WILL INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION OF PRECIP IN
THE TAFS BUT KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORIES RELATIVELY HIGH. IF PRECIP
OCCURS IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 02-08Z PERIOD FOR
KALS...04-10Z FOR KCOS AND 06-12Z FOR KPUB. ANY ACCUMS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. CIGS AND/OR VIS COULD BRIEFLY GO
TO IFR WITH SN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR EARLY FRI MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT FG/BR IN THE VALLEY. FRI WILL BE VFR
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 041743
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1043 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED FCST/GRIDS TO DELAY TIMING OF POPS OVER THE DVD THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST OBS AND MODELS SHOW PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER UT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AT OR JUST BEFORE 00Z. MAIN CHANGE IN
POPS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND ERN MTS. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SN
OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGION...BUT QPF AMTS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIGHT...SO EXPECT ACCUMS TO REMAIN IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR
THE MTS AND TRACE TO INCH FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AREAS
IN THE BANANA BELT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ARE
THE WARMEST AREAS.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TWO UPPER
DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE
FIRST...CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.  AS IT APPROACHES...EXPECT TO
SEE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING AT AN INCH OR
TWO FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO TONIGHT.  MODELS HAVING A HARDER
TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.  SEVERAL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND
DROP IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  DID NOT
GO OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH LOW POPS
INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...DROPPING SOUTH ALONG I-25...AND
THEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MORNING.  SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE AN INCH OR
TWO...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW PACK WILL BE
COLDEST AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN THESE
AREAS.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY FRIDAY IS LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS...BUT NOT BY MUCH.  DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.  MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILDER DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEAK.  AFTER WELL BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS MOST OF THE WEEK...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING TO THE EAST AGAIN AS STRONGLY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST FORCES COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS.  EASTERN COLORADO WILL NOT SEE THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR BUT INSTEAD WILL JUST GET CLIPPED BY THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
AIR MASS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL FALL BACK BELOW
AVERAGE AGAIN BUT NOT BY MUCH...AND THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ALREADY
BE SHIFTING EAST OF COLORADO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.  DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT NEAR
AVERAGE ON MONDAY...BUT WARMING TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHSN TO THE CONTDVD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME -SN TO THE ERN MTS AND I-25
CORRIDOR TONIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS
ABOUT 40 PERCENT...SO WILL INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION OF PRECIP IN
THE TAFS BUT KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORIES RELATIVELY HIGH. IF PRECIP
OCCURS IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 02-08Z PERIOD FOR
KALS...04-10Z FOR KCOS AND 06-12Z FOR KPUB. ANY ACCUMS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. CIGS AND/OR VIS COULD BRIEFLY GO
TO IFR WITH SN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR EARLY FRI MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT FG/BR IN THE VALLEY. FRI WILL BE VFR
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041743
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1043 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED FCST/GRIDS TO DELAY TIMING OF POPS OVER THE DVD THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST OBS AND MODELS SHOW PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER UT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AT OR JUST BEFORE 00Z. MAIN CHANGE IN
POPS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND ERN MTS. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SN
OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGION...BUT QPF AMTS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIGHT...SO EXPECT ACCUMS TO REMAIN IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR
THE MTS AND TRACE TO INCH FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AREAS
IN THE BANANA BELT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ARE
THE WARMEST AREAS.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TWO UPPER
DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE
FIRST...CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.  AS IT APPROACHES...EXPECT TO
SEE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING AT AN INCH OR
TWO FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO TONIGHT.  MODELS HAVING A HARDER
TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.  SEVERAL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND
DROP IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  DID NOT
GO OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH LOW POPS
INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...DROPPING SOUTH ALONG I-25...AND
THEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MORNING.  SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE AN INCH OR
TWO...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW PACK WILL BE
COLDEST AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN THESE
AREAS.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY FRIDAY IS LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS...BUT NOT BY MUCH.  DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.  MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILDER DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEAK.  AFTER WELL BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS MOST OF THE WEEK...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING TO THE EAST AGAIN AS STRONGLY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST FORCES COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS.  EASTERN COLORADO WILL NOT SEE THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR BUT INSTEAD WILL JUST GET CLIPPED BY THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
AIR MASS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL FALL BACK BELOW
AVERAGE AGAIN BUT NOT BY MUCH...AND THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ALREADY
BE SHIFTING EAST OF COLORADO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.  DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT NEAR
AVERAGE ON MONDAY...BUT WARMING TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHSN TO THE CONTDVD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME -SN TO THE ERN MTS AND I-25
CORRIDOR TONIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS
ABOUT 40 PERCENT...SO WILL INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION OF PRECIP IN
THE TAFS BUT KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORIES RELATIVELY HIGH. IF PRECIP
OCCURS IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 02-08Z PERIOD FOR
KALS...04-10Z FOR KCOS AND 06-12Z FOR KPUB. ANY ACCUMS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. CIGS AND/OR VIS COULD BRIEFLY GO
TO IFR WITH SN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR EARLY FRI MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT FG/BR IN THE VALLEY. FRI WILL BE VFR
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041613
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
913 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED FCST/GRIDS TO DELAY TIMING OF POPS OVER THE DVD THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST OBS AND MODELS SHOW PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER UT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AT OR JUST BEFORE 00Z. MAIN CHANGE IN
POPS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND ERN MTS. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SN
OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGION...BUT QPF AMTS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIGHT...SO EXPECT ACCUMS TO REMAIN IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR
THE MTS AND TRACE TO INCH FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AREAS
IN THE BANANA BELT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ARE
THE WARMEST AREAS.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TWO UPPER
DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE
FIRST...CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.  AS IT APPROACHES...EXPECT TO
SEE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING AT AN INCH OR
TWO FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO TONIGHT.  MODELS HAVING A HARDER
TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.  SEVERAL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND
DROP IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  DID NOT
GO OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH LOW POPS
INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...DROPPING SOUTH ALONG I-25...AND
THEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MORNING.  SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE AN INCH OR
TWO...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW PACK WILL BE
COLDEST AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN THESE
AREAS.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY FRIDAY IS LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS...BUT NOT BY MUCH.  DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.  MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILDER DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEAK.  AFTER WELL BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS MOST OF THE WEEK...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING TO THE EAST AGAIN AS STRONGLY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST FORCES COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS.  EASTERN COLORADO WILL NOT SEE THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR BUT INSTEAD WILL JUST GET CLIPPED BY THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
AIR MASS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL FALL BACK BELOW
AVERAGE AGAIN BUT NOT BY MUCH...AND THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ALREADY
BE SHIFTING EAST OF COLORADO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.  DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT NEAR
AVERAGE ON MONDAY...BUT WARMING TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR AFTER
01Z/FRI.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  REDUCED CIGS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE BY 03Z/FRI.  SNOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041127
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
427 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AREAS
IN THE BANANA BELT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ARE
THE WARMEST AREAS.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TWO UPPER
DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE
FIRST...CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.  AS IT APPROACHES...EXPECT TO
SEE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING AT AN INCH OR
TWO FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO TONIGHT.  MODELS HAVING A HARDER
TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.  SEVERAL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND
DROP IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  DID NOT
GO OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH LOW POPS
INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...DROPPING SOUTH ALONG I-25...AND
THEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MORNING.  SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE AN INCH OR
TWO...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW PACK WILL BE
COLDEST AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN THESE
AREAS.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY FRIDAY IS LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS...BUT NOT BY MUCH.  DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.  MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILDER DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEAK.  AFTER WELL BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS MOST OF THE WEEK...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING TO THE EAST AGAIN AS STRONGLY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST FORCES COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS.  EASTERN COLORADO WILL NOT SEE THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR BUT INSTEAD WILL JUST GET CLIPPED BY THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
AIR MASS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL FALL BACK BELOW
AVERAGE AGAIN BUT NOT BY MUCH...AND THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ALREADY
BE SHIFTING EAST OF COLORADO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.  DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT NEAR
AVERAGE ON MONDAY...BUT WARMING TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR AFTER
01Z/FRI.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  REDUCED CIGS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE BY 03Z/FRI.  SNOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 040524
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1024 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
SET OFF SOME ISOLD SHSN OVER THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE RATON MESA
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF HGWY 160. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CO
AND STABLE CONDITIONS SET IN AFTER SUNSET.

WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH A BIT
OF SNOW COVER...WILL BE ALMOST PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. H7 TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND MINUS 15 AND CLIMB A BIT BY
THU MORNING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD PUT
MORNING LOWS AT OR A BIT BELOW THE MINS FROM THIS MORNING. KPUB
COULD SEE ITS FIRST NEGATIVE MORNING LOW OF THE 2015-2016 SEASON.
THE LAST TIME KPUB FAILED TO FALL BELOW ZERO FOR THE SEASON WAS IN
1999-2000 (LOW OF ZERO FOR THAT SEASON).
CURRENT FORECAST FOR PUEBLO TONIGHT IS FOR A LOW OF MINUS ONE...SO
IT WILL BE CLOSE. HIGH VALLEYS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM GOING WELL
BELOW ZERO...WITH DOUBLE DIGIT NEGATIVES LIKELY TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT HIGHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHSN TO THE MTNS BY THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH A BRIEF REBOUND FOR SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF NEXT
UPPER TROF WHICH DROPS THROUGH NW FLOW ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF STILL OFFERS THE STRONGEST SOLN...WITH
THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS FRIDAY MORNING.  ALL
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE EC IS THE OUTLIER...HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM AND GFS.  BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTDVD THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC NW FLOW. WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE PLAINS UNDER ISOLATED POPS FOR NOW...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THEY
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT AS SYSTEM IS PRETTY QUICK MOVING. THIS WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATES IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING A SHORT TERM
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.  WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.  BUT SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

WARMING IS SHORTLIVED...WITH ANOTHER TROF GLANCING BY NORTHERN CO ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
...THOUGH THIS ONE LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.  THIS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
NOW FARTHER EAST WITH THE CORE OF ARCTIC AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW.  BY WEDNESDAY...WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL
BE SHIFTING EASTWARD BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS POTENTIALLY REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

AT KALS...GUSTY NW WIND EARLIER TODAY BROUGHT SOME DRY AIR TOWARD
THE SURFACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION/EXTENT OF ANY FOG
NEAR THE TERMINAL. STILL A LOW THREAT FOR SOME BRIEF GROUND FOG TO
COME UP FROM THE RIO GRANDE AROUND SUNRISE GIVEN FCST MINUS 18F
LOW TEMP...AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VIS 11Z-14Z.
ONCE ANY FOG CLEARS..VFR THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

AT KCOS...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW -SHSN COME
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING AFTER 00Z...AND WILL INCLUDE A
VCSH MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LAST TAF PERIOD.

AT KPUB...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...INCOMING WAVE WILL SPREAD -SHSN TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER PEAKS
OBSCURED FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD BY THU EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 032159
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
259 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
SET OFF SOME ISOLD SHSN OVER THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE RATON MESA
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF HGWY 160. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CO
AND STABLE CONDITIONS SET IN AFTER SUNSET.

WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH A BIT
OF SNOW COVER...WILL BE ALMOST PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. H7 TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND MINUS 15 AND CLIMB A BIT BY
THU MORNING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD PUT
MORNING LOWS AT OR A BIT BELOW THE MINS FROM THIS MORNING. KPUB
COULD SEE ITS FIRST NEGATIVE MORNING LOW OF THE 2015-2016 SEASON.
THE LAST TIME KPUB FAILED TO FALL BELOW ZERO FOR THE SEASON WAS IN
1999-2000 (LOW OF ZERO FOR THAT SEASON).
CURRENT FORECAST FOR PUEBLO TONIGHT IS FOR A LOW OF MINUS ONE...SO
IT WILL BE CLOSE. HIGH VALLEYS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM GOING WELL
BELOW ZERO...WITH DOUBLE DIGIT NEGATIVES LIKELY TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT HIGHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHSN TO THE MTNS BY THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH A BRIEF REBOUND FOR SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF NEXT
UPPER TROF WHICH DROPS THROUGH NW FLOW ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF STILL OFFERS THE STRONGEST SOLN...WITH
THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS FRIDAY MORNING.  ALL
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE EC IS THE OUTLIER...HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM AND GFS.  BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTDVD THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC NW FLOW. WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE PLAINS UNDER ISOLATED POPS FOR NOW...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THEY
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT AS SYSTEM IS PRETTY QUICK MOVING. THIS WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATES IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING A SHORT TERM
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.  WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.  BUT SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

WARMING IS SHORTLIVED...WITH ANOTHER TROF GLANCING BY NORTHERN CO ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
...THOUGH THIS ONE LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.  THIS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
NOW FARTHER EAST WITH THE CORE OF ARCTIC AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW.  BY WEDNESDAY...WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL
BE SHIFTING EASTWARD BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS POTENTIALLY REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FG/BR AT KALS TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. IF FG DEVELOPS...SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15-16Z THU. AT KPUB AND KCOS...WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THU. SHSN WILL DEVELOP LATE THU OVER THE
CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 032159
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
259 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
SET OFF SOME ISOLD SHSN OVER THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE RATON MESA
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF HGWY 160. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CO
AND STABLE CONDITIONS SET IN AFTER SUNSET.

WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH A BIT
OF SNOW COVER...WILL BE ALMOST PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. H7 TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND MINUS 15 AND CLIMB A BIT BY
THU MORNING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD PUT
MORNING LOWS AT OR A BIT BELOW THE MINS FROM THIS MORNING. KPUB
COULD SEE ITS FIRST NEGATIVE MORNING LOW OF THE 2015-2016 SEASON.
THE LAST TIME KPUB FAILED TO FALL BELOW ZERO FOR THE SEASON WAS IN
1999-2000 (LOW OF ZERO FOR THAT SEASON).
CURRENT FORECAST FOR PUEBLO TONIGHT IS FOR A LOW OF MINUS ONE...SO
IT WILL BE CLOSE. HIGH VALLEYS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM GOING WELL
BELOW ZERO...WITH DOUBLE DIGIT NEGATIVES LIKELY TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT HIGHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHSN TO THE MTNS BY THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH A BRIEF REBOUND FOR SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF NEXT
UPPER TROF WHICH DROPS THROUGH NW FLOW ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF STILL OFFERS THE STRONGEST SOLN...WITH
THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS FRIDAY MORNING.  ALL
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE EC IS THE OUTLIER...HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM AND GFS.  BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTDVD THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC NW FLOW. WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE PLAINS UNDER ISOLATED POPS FOR NOW...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THEY
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT AS SYSTEM IS PRETTY QUICK MOVING. THIS WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATES IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING A SHORT TERM
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.  WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.  BUT SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

WARMING IS SHORTLIVED...WITH ANOTHER TROF GLANCING BY NORTHERN CO ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
...THOUGH THIS ONE LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.  THIS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
NOW FARTHER EAST WITH THE CORE OF ARCTIC AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW.  BY WEDNESDAY...WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL
BE SHIFTING EASTWARD BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS POTENTIALLY REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FG/BR AT KALS TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. IF FG DEVELOPS...SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15-16Z THU. AT KPUB AND KCOS...WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THU. SHSN WILL DEVELOP LATE THU OVER THE
CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 032159
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
259 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
SET OFF SOME ISOLD SHSN OVER THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE RATON MESA
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF HGWY 160. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CO
AND STABLE CONDITIONS SET IN AFTER SUNSET.

WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH A BIT
OF SNOW COVER...WILL BE ALMOST PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. H7 TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND MINUS 15 AND CLIMB A BIT BY
THU MORNING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD PUT
MORNING LOWS AT OR A BIT BELOW THE MINS FROM THIS MORNING. KPUB
COULD SEE ITS FIRST NEGATIVE MORNING LOW OF THE 2015-2016 SEASON.
THE LAST TIME KPUB FAILED TO FALL BELOW ZERO FOR THE SEASON WAS IN
1999-2000 (LOW OF ZERO FOR THAT SEASON).
CURRENT FORECAST FOR PUEBLO TONIGHT IS FOR A LOW OF MINUS ONE...SO
IT WILL BE CLOSE. HIGH VALLEYS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM GOING WELL
BELOW ZERO...WITH DOUBLE DIGIT NEGATIVES LIKELY TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT HIGHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHSN TO THE MTNS BY THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH A BRIEF REBOUND FOR SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF NEXT
UPPER TROF WHICH DROPS THROUGH NW FLOW ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF STILL OFFERS THE STRONGEST SOLN...WITH
THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS FRIDAY MORNING.  ALL
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE EC IS THE OUTLIER...HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM AND GFS.  BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTDVD THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC NW FLOW. WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE PLAINS UNDER ISOLATED POPS FOR NOW...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THEY
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT AS SYSTEM IS PRETTY QUICK MOVING. THIS WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATES IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING A SHORT TERM
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.  WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.  BUT SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

WARMING IS SHORTLIVED...WITH ANOTHER TROF GLANCING BY NORTHERN CO ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
...THOUGH THIS ONE LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.  THIS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
NOW FARTHER EAST WITH THE CORE OF ARCTIC AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW.  BY WEDNESDAY...WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL
BE SHIFTING EASTWARD BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS POTENTIALLY REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FG/BR AT KALS TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. IF FG DEVELOPS...SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15-16Z THU. AT KPUB AND KCOS...WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THU. SHSN WILL DEVELOP LATE THU OVER THE
CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031810
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

UPDATED FORECAST PRIMARILY TO ADJUST POPS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL HIGH
RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...4KM NAM...AND WRF...SHOW SOME
ISOLD SHSN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SE PLAINS. SO...HAVE
EXPANDED LOW POPS A BIT TO INCLUDE BACA COUNTY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS. WILL ALSO SEE ISOLD SHSN OVER THE HYR TRRN. ALL ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE OFF THIS EVENING. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

CURRENTLY...LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED OVER THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES ARE COLD WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
IMPACTED THE REGION ON MONDAY CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS DISTURBANCES DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA.  THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...SO SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR
TWO ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHWEST FACING PEAKS.  EXPECT SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.  LIGHT WINDS
AND SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL TO NEAR
ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.  WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT BUT WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL RUN IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...COLD TO CONTINUE...

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SCATTERED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND POSSIBLY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK.  AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
GET BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS THIS DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THAT RIDGE.  THIS WILL MAKE EASTERN COLORADO VULNERABLE TO
ANY COLD AIR MASSES BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS. RIGHT NOW...THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLD
AIR AND ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL THAT MAY ACCOMPANY IT EAST OF COLORADO.
HOWEVER...SOME RUNS HAVE DRIVEN THE AIR MORE DIRECTLY SOUTH INTO
COLORADO.  IT MAY TURN OUT THAT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GET CLIPPED
BY SOME SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE PLAINS FARTHER WEST...UP
AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS...SEE JUST A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING. JUST HAVE
TO KEEP WATCHING IT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

AT KPUB AND KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT KALS...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT
SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE FG/BR DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOSLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031619
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
919 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

UPDATED FORECAST PRIMARILY TO ADJUST POPS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL HIGH
RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...4KM NAM...AND WRF...SHOW SOME
ISOLD SHSN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SE PLAINS. SO...HAVE
EXPANDED LOW POPS A BIT TO INCLUDE BACA COUNTY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS. WILL ALSO SEE ISOLD SHSN OVER THE HYR TRRN. ALL ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE OFF THIS EVENING. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

CURRENTLY...LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED OVER THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES ARE COLD WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
IMPACTED THE REGION ON MONDAY CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS DISTURBANCES DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA.  THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...SO SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR
TWO ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHWEST FACING PEAKS.  EXPECT SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.  LIGHT WINDS
AND SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL TO NEAR
ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.  WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT BUT WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL RUN IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...COLD TO CONTINUE...

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SCATTERED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND POSSIBLY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK.  AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
GET BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS THIS DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THAT RIDGE.  THIS WILL MAKE EASTERN COLORADO VULNERABLE TO
ANY COLD AIR MASSES BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS. RIGHT NOW...THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLD
AIR AND ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL THAT MAY ACCOMPANY IT EAST OF COLORADO.
HOWEVER...SOME RUNS HAVE DRIVEN THE AIR MORE DIRECTLY SOUTH INTO
COLORADO.  IT MAY TURN OUT THAT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GET CLIPPED
BY SOME SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE PLAINS FARTHER WEST...UP
AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS...SEE JUST A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING. JUST HAVE
TO KEEP WATCHING IT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

KALS...LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH SUN UP.  SNOW AND FOG ARE PRODUCING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 15Z INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

KCOS AND KPUB...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THURSDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031102
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

CURRENTLY...LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED OVER THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES ARE COLD WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
IMPACTED THE REGION ON MONDAY CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS DISTURBANCES DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA.  THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...SO SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR
TWO ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHWEST FACING PEAKS.  EXPECT SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.  LIGHT WINDS
AND SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL TO NEAR
ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.  WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT BUT WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL RUN IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...COLD TO CONTINUE...

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SCATTERED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND POSSIBLY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK.  AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
GET BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS THIS DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THAT RIDGE.  THIS WILL MAKE EASTERN COLORADO VULNERABLE TO
ANY COLD AIR MASSES BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS. RIGHT NOW...THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLD
AIR AND ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL THAT MAY ACCOMPANY IT EAST OF COLORADO.
HOWEVER...SOME RUNS HAVE DRIVEN THE AIR MORE DIRECTLY SOUTH INTO
COLORADO.  IT MAY TURN OUT THAT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GET CLIPPED
BY SOME SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE PLAINS FARTHER WEST...UP
AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS...SEE JUST A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING. JUST HAVE
TO KEEP WATCHING IT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

KALS...LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH SUN UP.  SNOW AND FOG ARE PRODUCING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 15Z INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

KCOS AND KPUB...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THURSDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 030537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AS YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH REGION RADARS STILL INDICATING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...NORTH TO NORTHWEST INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AS A MINOR EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...SHOULD SEE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...DIMINISHING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WITH THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR AREAS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY AND BE GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PEAKS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD WITH THE INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER...WENT AT AND BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOW
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  NEXT SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY.  THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH EC AND CANADIAN
SUGGEST THIS...WHILE NAM AND GFS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. EVEN THE
STRONGER SOLUTIONS HOWEVER DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH
SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SO WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GRIDS FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
TRANSLATES ACROSS...THEN ANOTHER TROF GLANCES BY WELL TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT SENDING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS TO INTRUDE INTO EASTERN CO. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH GFS THE COLDER OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...SPREADING SOME SNOW INTO THE PLAINS AS WELL. EC KEEPS
BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR OFF TO THE EAST. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES...WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND FOR NOW..
-KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

VFR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AT KCOS AND
KPUB...WITH MID-LEVEL VFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL 18Z. AT KALS...PESKY
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD...THOUGH SATELLITE LOOP
SUGGESTS BACK EDGE OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS IS NEARLY EAST OF THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AS OF 0530Z. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHSN
AND MVFR CIGS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS...THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY WED MORNING WITH VFR CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AS YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH REGION RADARS STILL INDICATING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...NORTH TO NORTHWEST INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AS A MINOR EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...SHOULD SEE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...DIMINISHING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WITH THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR AREAS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY AND BE GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PEAKS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD WITH THE INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER...WENT AT AND BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOW
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  NEXT SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY.  THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH EC AND CANADIAN
SUGGEST THIS...WHILE NAM AND GFS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. EVEN THE
STRONGER SOLUTIONS HOWEVER DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH
SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SO WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GRIDS FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
TRANSLATES ACROSS...THEN ANOTHER TROF GLANCES BY WELL TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT SENDING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS TO INTRUDE INTO EASTERN CO. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH GFS THE COLDER OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...SPREADING SOME SNOW INTO THE PLAINS AS WELL. EC KEEPS
BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR OFF TO THE EAST. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES...WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND FOR NOW..
-KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

VFR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AT KCOS AND
KPUB...WITH MID-LEVEL VFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL 18Z. AT KALS...PESKY
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD...THOUGH SATELLITE LOOP
SUGGESTS BACK EDGE OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS IS NEARLY EAST OF THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AS OF 0530Z. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHSN
AND MVFR CIGS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS...THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY WED MORNING WITH VFR CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN





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