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000
FXUS65 KPUB 010529
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1029 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS OVER EASTERN PLAINS
AN PRECIP DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. ALSO
EXPIRING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. /HODANISH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FINE-TUNED FORECAST FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FCST. FIRST
BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ANOTHER BAND COMING ACROSS MAINLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. FIRST BAND ALREADY CLEARED C MTNS AND WILL
REMOVE SNOW ADVISORY FROM THIS REGION WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 5 PM. /HODANISH

/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 21Z...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY EVENING AS
IT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER. WARMER TEMPS HAVE HELD ON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND EXPECT
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST..SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST
VALLEYS...THOUGH BACK EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW WAS ALREADY MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 21Z.

TONIGHT...LEFT CURRENT ROUND OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...THOUGH
WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH OF I-70 ALREADY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY WITH NEXT UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH FOCUS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY UPSLOPE. HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES/WETS/PIKES PEAK WILL SEE SOME MODEST (2-5 INCH)
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...WHILE VALLEYS SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO.
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AS COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADS SOUTH. LATE CHANGEOVER AND WARM GROUND
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A
INCH OR TWO ONCE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PAST 04Z-
06Z...LIFT DECREASES OVER MOUNTAINS/WRN VALLEYS AS TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...WITH SNOW FADING AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO SNOW LONGER AS WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT KEEPS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO SUN
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS AS
DRIER/COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG/WEST OF I-25 IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY FADING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FADES AND UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE SOME SUN
MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND CONTINUOUS LIGHT
SNOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MIXING OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 50S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...AND 60S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DROPS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS
BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS. IT TAKES
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF MONTANA...AND BARELY CLIPS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT ALSO
HAS A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS...BUT DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. IT
HAS SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE PALMER
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING WITH
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND WITH 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

KCOS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS BETWEEN 07-11Z TONIGHT WITH SNOW AND
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 02/06Z

KPUB...VFR NEXT 24H. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT BR THROUGH 08Z.

KALS...GUIDANCE SHOWS IT DRYING OUT TONIGHT BUT KALS CAN BE
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE VALLEY. FOR NOW WENT WITH TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE BUT DELAYED LOW CLOUDS GETTING OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER ON TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 010529
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1029 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS OVER EASTERN PLAINS
AN PRECIP DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. ALSO
EXPIRING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. /HODANISH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FINE-TUNED FORECAST FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FCST. FIRST
BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ANOTHER BAND COMING ACROSS MAINLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. FIRST BAND ALREADY CLEARED C MTNS AND WILL
REMOVE SNOW ADVISORY FROM THIS REGION WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 5 PM. /HODANISH

/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 21Z...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY EVENING AS
IT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER. WARMER TEMPS HAVE HELD ON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND EXPECT
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST..SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST
VALLEYS...THOUGH BACK EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW WAS ALREADY MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 21Z.

TONIGHT...LEFT CURRENT ROUND OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...THOUGH
WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH OF I-70 ALREADY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY WITH NEXT UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH FOCUS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY UPSLOPE. HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES/WETS/PIKES PEAK WILL SEE SOME MODEST (2-5 INCH)
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...WHILE VALLEYS SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO.
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AS COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADS SOUTH. LATE CHANGEOVER AND WARM GROUND
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A
INCH OR TWO ONCE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PAST 04Z-
06Z...LIFT DECREASES OVER MOUNTAINS/WRN VALLEYS AS TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...WITH SNOW FADING AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO SNOW LONGER AS WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT KEEPS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO SUN
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS AS
DRIER/COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG/WEST OF I-25 IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY FADING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FADES AND UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE SOME SUN
MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND CONTINUOUS LIGHT
SNOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MIXING OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 50S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...AND 60S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DROPS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS
BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS. IT TAKES
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF MONTANA...AND BARELY CLIPS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT ALSO
HAS A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS...BUT DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. IT
HAS SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE PALMER
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING WITH
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND WITH 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

KCOS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS BETWEEN 07-11Z TONIGHT WITH SNOW AND
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 02/06Z

KPUB...VFR NEXT 24H. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT BR THROUGH 08Z.

KALS...GUIDANCE SHOWS IT DRYING OUT TONIGHT BUT KALS CAN BE
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE VALLEY. FOR NOW WENT WITH TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE BUT DELAYED LOW CLOUDS GETTING OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER ON TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010312
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
812 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS OVER EASTERN PLAINS
AN PRECIP DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. ALSO
EXPIRING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. /HODANISH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FINE-TUNED FORECAST FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FCST. FIRST
BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ANOTHER BAND COMING ACROSS MAINLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. FIRST BAND ALREADY CLEARED C MTNS AND WILL
REMOVE SNOW ADVISORY FROM THIS REGION WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 5 PM. /HODANISH

/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 21Z...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY EVENING AS
IT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER. WARMER TEMPS HAVE HELD ON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND EXPECT
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST..SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST
VALLEYS...THOUGH BACK EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW WAS ALREADY MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 21Z.

TONIGHT...LEFT CURRENT ROUND OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...THOUGH
WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH OF I-70 ALREADY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY WITH NEXT UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH FOCUS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY UPSLOPE. HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES/WETS/PIKES PEAK WILL SEE SOME MODEST (2-5 INCH)
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...WHILE VALLEYS SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO.
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AS COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADS SOUTH. LATE CHANGEOVER AND WARM GROUND
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A
INCH OR TWO ONCE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PAST 04Z-
06Z...LIFT DECREASES OVER MOUNTAINS/WRN VALLEYS AS TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...WITH SNOW FADING AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO SNOW LONGER AS WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT KEEPS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO SUN
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS AS
DRIER/COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG/WEST OF I-25 IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY FADING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FADES AND UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE SOME SUN
MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND CONTINUOUS LIGHT
SNOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MIXING OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 50S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...AND 60S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DROPS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS
BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS. IT TAKES
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF MONTANA...AND BARELY CLIPS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT ALSO
HAS A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS...BUT DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. IT
HAS SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE PALMER
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING WITH
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND WITH 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AT KALS...IFR STRATUS HAS LIFTED WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS GONE IFR UNDER SOME PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS AS OF 22Z. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z-
08Z. DRIER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH CIGS
LIFTING/DISSIPATING...THOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY MAKE A
BRIEF APPEARANCE AROUND SUNRISE. ON SUNDAY...VFR.

AT KCOS...EXPECT IFR/BRIEFLY LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND LOW CIGS INTO THE EVENING UNTIL 04Z-05Z...THEN VIS IMPROVES AND
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER ABOUT 06Z...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY. AFTER 16Z SUN...CIGS WILL BECOME
VFR.

AT KPUB...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS THIS EVENING AS COLD
FRONT PASSES AND -SHRA/-SHSN DEVELOP. SHOWERS END 06Z-08Z WITH
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS UNTIL MID-MORNING SUNDAY...THEN VFR.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOST HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED BY
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING
WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 010312
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
812 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS OVER EASTERN PLAINS
AN PRECIP DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. ALSO
EXPIRING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. /HODANISH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FINE-TUNED FORECAST FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FCST. FIRST
BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ANOTHER BAND COMING ACROSS MAINLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. FIRST BAND ALREADY CLEARED C MTNS AND WILL
REMOVE SNOW ADVISORY FROM THIS REGION WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 5 PM. /HODANISH

/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 21Z...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY EVENING AS
IT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER. WARMER TEMPS HAVE HELD ON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND EXPECT
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST..SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST
VALLEYS...THOUGH BACK EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW WAS ALREADY MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 21Z.

TONIGHT...LEFT CURRENT ROUND OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...THOUGH
WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH OF I-70 ALREADY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY WITH NEXT UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH FOCUS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY UPSLOPE. HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES/WETS/PIKES PEAK WILL SEE SOME MODEST (2-5 INCH)
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...WHILE VALLEYS SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO.
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AS COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADS SOUTH. LATE CHANGEOVER AND WARM GROUND
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A
INCH OR TWO ONCE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PAST 04Z-
06Z...LIFT DECREASES OVER MOUNTAINS/WRN VALLEYS AS TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...WITH SNOW FADING AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO SNOW LONGER AS WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT KEEPS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO SUN
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS AS
DRIER/COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG/WEST OF I-25 IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY FADING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FADES AND UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE SOME SUN
MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND CONTINUOUS LIGHT
SNOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MIXING OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 50S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...AND 60S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DROPS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS
BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS. IT TAKES
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF MONTANA...AND BARELY CLIPS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT ALSO
HAS A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS...BUT DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. IT
HAS SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE PALMER
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING WITH
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND WITH 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AT KALS...IFR STRATUS HAS LIFTED WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS GONE IFR UNDER SOME PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS AS OF 22Z. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z-
08Z. DRIER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH CIGS
LIFTING/DISSIPATING...THOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY MAKE A
BRIEF APPEARANCE AROUND SUNRISE. ON SUNDAY...VFR.

AT KCOS...EXPECT IFR/BRIEFLY LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND LOW CIGS INTO THE EVENING UNTIL 04Z-05Z...THEN VIS IMPROVES AND
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER ABOUT 06Z...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY. AFTER 16Z SUN...CIGS WILL BECOME
VFR.

AT KPUB...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS THIS EVENING AS COLD
FRONT PASSES AND -SHRA/-SHSN DEVELOP. SHOWERS END 06Z-08Z WITH
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS UNTIL MID-MORNING SUNDAY...THEN VFR.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOST HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED BY
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING
WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010312
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
812 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS OVER EASTERN PLAINS
AN PRECIP DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. ALSO
EXPIRING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. /HODANISH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FINE-TUNED FORECAST FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FCST. FIRST
BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ANOTHER BAND COMING ACROSS MAINLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. FIRST BAND ALREADY CLEARED C MTNS AND WILL
REMOVE SNOW ADVISORY FROM THIS REGION WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 5 PM. /HODANISH

/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 21Z...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY EVENING AS
IT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER. WARMER TEMPS HAVE HELD ON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND EXPECT
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST..SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST
VALLEYS...THOUGH BACK EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW WAS ALREADY MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 21Z.

TONIGHT...LEFT CURRENT ROUND OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...THOUGH
WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH OF I-70 ALREADY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY WITH NEXT UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH FOCUS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY UPSLOPE. HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES/WETS/PIKES PEAK WILL SEE SOME MODEST (2-5 INCH)
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...WHILE VALLEYS SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO.
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AS COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADS SOUTH. LATE CHANGEOVER AND WARM GROUND
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A
INCH OR TWO ONCE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PAST 04Z-
06Z...LIFT DECREASES OVER MOUNTAINS/WRN VALLEYS AS TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...WITH SNOW FADING AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO SNOW LONGER AS WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT KEEPS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO SUN
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS AS
DRIER/COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG/WEST OF I-25 IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY FADING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FADES AND UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE SOME SUN
MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND CONTINUOUS LIGHT
SNOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MIXING OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 50S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...AND 60S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DROPS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS
BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS. IT TAKES
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF MONTANA...AND BARELY CLIPS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT ALSO
HAS A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS...BUT DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. IT
HAS SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE PALMER
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING WITH
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND WITH 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AT KALS...IFR STRATUS HAS LIFTED WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS GONE IFR UNDER SOME PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS AS OF 22Z. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z-
08Z. DRIER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH CIGS
LIFTING/DISSIPATING...THOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY MAKE A
BRIEF APPEARANCE AROUND SUNRISE. ON SUNDAY...VFR.

AT KCOS...EXPECT IFR/BRIEFLY LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND LOW CIGS INTO THE EVENING UNTIL 04Z-05Z...THEN VIS IMPROVES AND
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER ABOUT 06Z...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY. AFTER 16Z SUN...CIGS WILL BECOME
VFR.

AT KPUB...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS THIS EVENING AS COLD
FRONT PASSES AND -SHRA/-SHSN DEVELOP. SHOWERS END 06Z-08Z WITH
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS UNTIL MID-MORNING SUNDAY...THEN VFR.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOST HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED BY
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING
WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010312
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
812 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS OVER EASTERN PLAINS
AN PRECIP DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. ALSO
EXPIRING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. /HODANISH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FINE-TUNED FORECAST FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FCST. FIRST
BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ANOTHER BAND COMING ACROSS MAINLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. FIRST BAND ALREADY CLEARED C MTNS AND WILL
REMOVE SNOW ADVISORY FROM THIS REGION WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 5 PM. /HODANISH

/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 21Z...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY EVENING AS
IT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER. WARMER TEMPS HAVE HELD ON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND EXPECT
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST..SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST
VALLEYS...THOUGH BACK EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW WAS ALREADY MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 21Z.

TONIGHT...LEFT CURRENT ROUND OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...THOUGH
WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH OF I-70 ALREADY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY WITH NEXT UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH FOCUS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY UPSLOPE. HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES/WETS/PIKES PEAK WILL SEE SOME MODEST (2-5 INCH)
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...WHILE VALLEYS SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO.
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AS COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADS SOUTH. LATE CHANGEOVER AND WARM GROUND
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A
INCH OR TWO ONCE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PAST 04Z-
06Z...LIFT DECREASES OVER MOUNTAINS/WRN VALLEYS AS TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...WITH SNOW FADING AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO SNOW LONGER AS WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT KEEPS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO SUN
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS AS
DRIER/COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG/WEST OF I-25 IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY FADING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FADES AND UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE SOME SUN
MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND CONTINUOUS LIGHT
SNOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MIXING OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 50S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...AND 60S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DROPS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS
BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS. IT TAKES
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF MONTANA...AND BARELY CLIPS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT ALSO
HAS A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS...BUT DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. IT
HAS SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE PALMER
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING WITH
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND WITH 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AT KALS...IFR STRATUS HAS LIFTED WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS GONE IFR UNDER SOME PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS AS OF 22Z. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z-
08Z. DRIER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH CIGS
LIFTING/DISSIPATING...THOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY MAKE A
BRIEF APPEARANCE AROUND SUNRISE. ON SUNDAY...VFR.

AT KCOS...EXPECT IFR/BRIEFLY LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND LOW CIGS INTO THE EVENING UNTIL 04Z-05Z...THEN VIS IMPROVES AND
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER ABOUT 06Z...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY. AFTER 16Z SUN...CIGS WILL BECOME
VFR.

AT KPUB...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS THIS EVENING AS COLD
FRONT PASSES AND -SHRA/-SHSN DEVELOP. SHOWERS END 06Z-08Z WITH
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS UNTIL MID-MORNING SUNDAY...THEN VFR.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOST HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED BY
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING
WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 312350
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
450 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FINE-TUNED FORECAST FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FCST. FIRST
BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ANOTHER BAND COMING ACROSS MAINLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. FIRST BAND ALREADY CLEARED C MTNS AND WILL
REMOVE SNOW ADVISORY FROM THIS REGION WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 5 PM. /HODANISH

/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 21Z...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY EVENING AS
IT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER. WARMER TEMPS HAVE HELD ON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND EXPECT
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST..SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST
VALLEYS...THOUGH BACK EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW WAS ALREADY MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 21Z.

TONIGHT...LEFT CURRENT ROUND OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...THOUGH
WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH OF I-70 ALREADY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY WITH NEXT UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH FOCUS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY UPSLOPE. HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES/WETS/PIKES PEAK WILL SEE SOME MODEST (2-5 INCH)
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...WHILE VALLEYS SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO.
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AS COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADS SOUTH. LATE CHANGEOVER AND WARM GROUND
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A
INCH OR TWO ONCE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PAST 04Z-
06Z...LIFT DECREASES OVER MOUNTAINS/WRN VALLEYS AS TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...WITH SNOW FADING AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO SNOW LONGER AS WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT KEEPS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO SUN
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS AS
DRIER/COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG/WEST OF I-25 IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY FADING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FADES AND UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE SOME SUN
MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND CONTINUOUS LIGHT
SNOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MIXING OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 50S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...AND 60S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DROPS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS
BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS. IT TAKES
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF MONTANA...AND BARELY CLIPS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT ALSO
HAS A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS...BUT DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. IT
HAS SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE PALMER
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING WITH
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND WITH 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AT KALS...IFR STRATUS HAS LIFTED WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS GONE IFR UNDER SOME PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS AS OF 22Z. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z-
08Z. DRIER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH CIGS
LIFTING/DISSIPATING...THOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY MAKE A
BRIEF APPEARANCE AROUND SUNRISE. ON SUNDAY...VFR.

AT KCOS...EXPECT IFR/BRIEFLY LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND LOW CIGS INTO THE EVENING UNTIL 04Z-05Z...THEN VIS IMPROVES AND
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER ABOUT 06Z...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY. AFTER 16Z SUN...CIGS WILL BECOME
VFR.

AT KPUB...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS THIS EVENING AS COLD
FRONT PASSES AND -SHRA/-SHSN DEVELOP. SHOWERS END 06Z-08Z WITH
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS UNTIL MID-MORNING SUNDAY...THEN VFR.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOST HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED BY
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING
WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060-061-066>068-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 312350
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
450 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FINE-TUNED FORECAST FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FCST. FIRST
BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ANOTHER BAND COMING ACROSS MAINLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. FIRST BAND ALREADY CLEARED C MTNS AND WILL
REMOVE SNOW ADVISORY FROM THIS REGION WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 5 PM. /HODANISH

/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 21Z...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY EVENING AS
IT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER. WARMER TEMPS HAVE HELD ON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND EXPECT
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST..SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST
VALLEYS...THOUGH BACK EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW WAS ALREADY MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 21Z.

TONIGHT...LEFT CURRENT ROUND OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...THOUGH
WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH OF I-70 ALREADY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY WITH NEXT UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH FOCUS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY UPSLOPE. HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES/WETS/PIKES PEAK WILL SEE SOME MODEST (2-5 INCH)
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...WHILE VALLEYS SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO.
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AS COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADS SOUTH. LATE CHANGEOVER AND WARM GROUND
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A
INCH OR TWO ONCE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PAST 04Z-
06Z...LIFT DECREASES OVER MOUNTAINS/WRN VALLEYS AS TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...WITH SNOW FADING AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO SNOW LONGER AS WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT KEEPS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO SUN
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS AS
DRIER/COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG/WEST OF I-25 IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY FADING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FADES AND UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE SOME SUN
MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND CONTINUOUS LIGHT
SNOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MIXING OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 50S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...AND 60S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DROPS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS
BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS. IT TAKES
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF MONTANA...AND BARELY CLIPS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT ALSO
HAS A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS...BUT DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. IT
HAS SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE PALMER
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING WITH
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND WITH 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AT KALS...IFR STRATUS HAS LIFTED WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS GONE IFR UNDER SOME PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS AS OF 22Z. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z-
08Z. DRIER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH CIGS
LIFTING/DISSIPATING...THOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY MAKE A
BRIEF APPEARANCE AROUND SUNRISE. ON SUNDAY...VFR.

AT KCOS...EXPECT IFR/BRIEFLY LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND LOW CIGS INTO THE EVENING UNTIL 04Z-05Z...THEN VIS IMPROVES AND
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER ABOUT 06Z...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY. AFTER 16Z SUN...CIGS WILL BECOME
VFR.

AT KPUB...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS THIS EVENING AS COLD
FRONT PASSES AND -SHRA/-SHSN DEVELOP. SHOWERS END 06Z-08Z WITH
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS UNTIL MID-MORNING SUNDAY...THEN VFR.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOST HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED BY
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING
WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060-061-066>068-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 312219
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
319 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 21Z...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY EVENING AS
IT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER. WARMER TEMPS HAVE HELD ON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND EXPECT
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST..SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST
VALLEYS...THOUGH BACK EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW WAS ALREADY MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 21Z.

TONIGHT...LEFT CURRENT ROUND OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...THOUGH
WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH OF I-70 ALREADY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY WITH NEXT UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH FOCUS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY UPSLOPE. HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES/WETS/PIKES PEAK WILL SEE SOME MODEST (2-5 INCH)
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...WHILE VALLEYS SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO.
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AS COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADS SOUTH. LATE CHANGEOVER AND WARM GROUND
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A
INCH OR TWO ONCE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PAST 04Z-
06Z...LIFT DECREASES OVER MOUNTAINS/WRN VALLEYS AS TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...WITH SNOW FADING AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO SNOW LONGER AS WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT KEEPS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO SUN
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS AS
DRIER/COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG/WEST OF I-25 IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY FADING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FADES AND UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE SOME SUN
MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND CONTINUOUS LIGHT
SNOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MIXING OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 50S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...AND 60S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DROPS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS
BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS. IT TAKES
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF MONTANA...AND BARELY CLIPS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT ALSO
HAS A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS...BUT DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. IT
HAS SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE PALMER
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING WITH
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND WITH 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AT KALS...IFR STRATUS HAS LIFTED WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS GONE IFR UNDER SOME PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS AS OF 22Z. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z-
08Z. DRIER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH CIGS
LIFTING/DISSIPATING...THOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY MAKE A
BRIEF APPEARANCE AROUND SUNRISE. ON SUNDAY...VFR.

AT KCOS...EXPECT IFR/BRIEFLY LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND LOW CIGS INTO THE EVENING UNTIL 04Z-05Z...THEN VIS IMPROVES AND
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER ABOUT 06Z...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY. AFTER 16Z SUN...CIGS WILL BECOME
VFR.

AT KPUB...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS THIS EVENING AS COLD
FRONT PASSES AND -SHRA/-SHSN DEVELOP. SHOWERS END 06Z-08Z WITH
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS UNTIL MID-MORNING SUNDAY...THEN VFR.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOST HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED BY
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING
WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060-061-066>068-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 312219
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
319 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 21Z...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY EVENING AS
IT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER. WARMER TEMPS HAVE HELD ON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND EXPECT
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST..SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST
VALLEYS...THOUGH BACK EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW WAS ALREADY MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 21Z.

TONIGHT...LEFT CURRENT ROUND OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...THOUGH
WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH OF I-70 ALREADY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY WITH NEXT UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH FOCUS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY UPSLOPE. HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES/WETS/PIKES PEAK WILL SEE SOME MODEST (2-5 INCH)
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...WHILE VALLEYS SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO.
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AS COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADS SOUTH. LATE CHANGEOVER AND WARM GROUND
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A
INCH OR TWO ONCE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PAST 04Z-
06Z...LIFT DECREASES OVER MOUNTAINS/WRN VALLEYS AS TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...WITH SNOW FADING AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO SNOW LONGER AS WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT KEEPS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO SUN
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS AS
DRIER/COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG/WEST OF I-25 IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY FADING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FADES AND UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE SOME SUN
MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND CONTINUOUS LIGHT
SNOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MIXING OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 50S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...AND 60S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DROPS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS
BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS. IT TAKES
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF MONTANA...AND BARELY CLIPS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT ALSO
HAS A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS...BUT DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. IT
HAS SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE PALMER
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING WITH
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND WITH 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AT KALS...IFR STRATUS HAS LIFTED WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS GONE IFR UNDER SOME PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS AS OF 22Z. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z-
08Z. DRIER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH CIGS
LIFTING/DISSIPATING...THOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY MAKE A
BRIEF APPEARANCE AROUND SUNRISE. ON SUNDAY...VFR.

AT KCOS...EXPECT IFR/BRIEFLY LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND LOW CIGS INTO THE EVENING UNTIL 04Z-05Z...THEN VIS IMPROVES AND
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER ABOUT 06Z...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY. AFTER 16Z SUN...CIGS WILL BECOME
VFR.

AT KPUB...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS THIS EVENING AS COLD
FRONT PASSES AND -SHRA/-SHSN DEVELOP. SHOWERS END 06Z-08Z WITH
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS UNTIL MID-MORNING SUNDAY...THEN VFR.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOST HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED BY
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING
WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060-061-066>068-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 311728
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1028 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NV AND CA THIS
MORNING...AND WAS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE UP ACROSS
NM...CO...AND THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. THICK CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 20S FOR THE MTS
WHERE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW TO THE
SW OF COLORADO WILL BE SHOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS DOWN ACROSS MT AND WY. THIS WILL ALLOW
PCPN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z
AND 21Z. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR A
RESURGENCE OF PCPN FOR THE E MTS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND AS THE
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER THE SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE PLAINS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN PERHAPS AN INCH...BUT LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW ACTIVITY PERSISTING
OVER THE S SANGRES LATER INTO THE NIGHT...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY THERE. OTHERWISE...ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS LOOK
REASONABLE AND NO NEED FOR BIG CHANGES. AS FOR TEMPS...A SLIGHTLY
LATER START TIME FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT
MILD TEMPS TO START THE DAY MEANS THAT MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LINGERING MAINLY UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE SE MTS/PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS.  COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE LEE TROF
REDEVELOPS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS/I-25 CORRIDOR
BEGIN TO WARM OVERNIGHT.  NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN LATE SPREADING
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.  MEANWHILE...SHOULD SEE A GOOD
WARM UP FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
KICKING THE LEE TROF EASTWARD AND SPREADING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS BRING THE NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  GFS IS BACK
TO ITS MORE AMPLIFIED AND HENCE WETTER SOLUTION FOR SOUTHERN CO.
ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED...HENCE NOT AS COLD OR AS WET AS THE GFS
SOLN.  CANADIAN SIDES CLOSER TO THE GFS.  WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
POPS FOR THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AND SHADE TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM THE WARMER MODEL CONSENSUS SOLN. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SHOULD FAIR THE BEST WITH SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM GIVEN NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  GREATER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE SE MTS AND PLAINS GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.

FLAT UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BRINGING A NICE WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AT KALS...IFR STRATUS SLOW TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WILL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON
WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR 20Z-21Z. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER 21Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING...AND MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY UNDER A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS. AFTER
06Z-08Z...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH CIGS
LIFTING/DISSIPATING...THOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY MAKE A
BRIEF APPEARANCE AROUND SUNRISE.

AT KCOS...PATCHY MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT -SHRA/-SHSN.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF IFR VIS LOOKS LIKELY
23Z-05Z AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER 05Z-
07Z...SHOWER CHANCES FADE AWAY...THOUGH MVFR STRATUS MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN A PERIOD OF
MVFR AS COLD FRONT PASSES AND A FEW -SHRA/-SHSN DEVELOP. SHOWERS
END 06Z-08Z WITH LINGERING MVFR STRATUS UNTIL MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOST HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED BY
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING
WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060-061-066>068-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 311728
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1028 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NV AND CA THIS
MORNING...AND WAS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE UP ACROSS
NM...CO...AND THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. THICK CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 20S FOR THE MTS
WHERE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW TO THE
SW OF COLORADO WILL BE SHOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS DOWN ACROSS MT AND WY. THIS WILL ALLOW
PCPN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z
AND 21Z. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR A
RESURGENCE OF PCPN FOR THE E MTS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND AS THE
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER THE SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE PLAINS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN PERHAPS AN INCH...BUT LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW ACTIVITY PERSISTING
OVER THE S SANGRES LATER INTO THE NIGHT...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY THERE. OTHERWISE...ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS LOOK
REASONABLE AND NO NEED FOR BIG CHANGES. AS FOR TEMPS...A SLIGHTLY
LATER START TIME FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT
MILD TEMPS TO START THE DAY MEANS THAT MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LINGERING MAINLY UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE SE MTS/PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS.  COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE LEE TROF
REDEVELOPS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS/I-25 CORRIDOR
BEGIN TO WARM OVERNIGHT.  NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN LATE SPREADING
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.  MEANWHILE...SHOULD SEE A GOOD
WARM UP FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
KICKING THE LEE TROF EASTWARD AND SPREADING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS BRING THE NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  GFS IS BACK
TO ITS MORE AMPLIFIED AND HENCE WETTER SOLUTION FOR SOUTHERN CO.
ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED...HENCE NOT AS COLD OR AS WET AS THE GFS
SOLN.  CANADIAN SIDES CLOSER TO THE GFS.  WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
POPS FOR THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AND SHADE TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM THE WARMER MODEL CONSENSUS SOLN. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SHOULD FAIR THE BEST WITH SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM GIVEN NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  GREATER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE SE MTS AND PLAINS GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.

FLAT UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BRINGING A NICE WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AT KALS...IFR STRATUS SLOW TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WILL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON
WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR 20Z-21Z. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER 21Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING...AND MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY UNDER A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS. AFTER
06Z-08Z...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH CIGS
LIFTING/DISSIPATING...THOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY MAKE A
BRIEF APPEARANCE AROUND SUNRISE.

AT KCOS...PATCHY MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT -SHRA/-SHSN.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF IFR VIS LOOKS LIKELY
23Z-05Z AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER 05Z-
07Z...SHOWER CHANCES FADE AWAY...THOUGH MVFR STRATUS MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN A PERIOD OF
MVFR AS COLD FRONT PASSES AND A FEW -SHRA/-SHSN DEVELOP. SHOWERS
END 06Z-08Z WITH LINGERING MVFR STRATUS UNTIL MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOST HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED BY
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING
WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060-061-066>068-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 311110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
410 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NV AND CA THIS
MORNING...AND WAS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE UP ACROSS
NM...CO...AND THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. THICK CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 20S FOR THE MTS
WHERE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW TO THE
SW OF COLORADO WILL BE SHOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS DOWN ACROSS MT AND WY. THIS WILL ALLOW
PCPN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z
AND 21Z. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR A
RESURGENCE OF PCPN FOR THE E MTS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND AS THE
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER THE SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE PLAINS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN PERHAPS AN INCH...BUT LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW ACTIVITY PERSISTING
OVER THE S SANGRES LATER INTO THE NIGHT...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY THERE. OTHERWISE...ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS LOOK
REASONABLE AND NO NEED FOR BIG CHANGES. AS FOR TEMPS...A SLIGHTLY
LATER START TIME FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT
MILD TEMPS TO START THE DAY MEANS THAT MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LINGERING MAINLY UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE SE MTS/PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS.  COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE LEE TROF
REDEVELOPS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS/I-25 CORRIDOR
BEGIN TO WARM OVERNIGHT.  NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN LATE SPREADING
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.  MEANWHILE...SHOULD SEE A GOOD
WARM UP FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
KICKING THE LEE TROF EASTWARD AND SPREADING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS BRING THE NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  GFS IS BACK
TO ITS MORE AMPLIFIED AND HENCE WETTER SOLUTION FOR SOUTHERN CO.
ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED...HENCE NOT AS COLD OR AS WET AS THE GFS
SOLN.  CANADIAN SIDES CLOSER TO THE GFS.  WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
POPS FOR THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AND SHADE TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM THE WARMER MODEL CONSENSUS SOLN. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SHOULD FAIR THE BEST WITH SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM GIVEN NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  GREATER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE SE MTS AND PLAINS GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.

FLAT UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BRINGING A NICE WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
TODAY...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FOR KCOS INITIALLY...THEN FOR KPUB AROUND 22-24Z.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR KALS THROUGH 16Z AS SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE SURROUNDING MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SLV. FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060-061-066>068-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 311110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
410 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NV AND CA THIS
MORNING...AND WAS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE UP ACROSS
NM...CO...AND THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. THICK CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 20S FOR THE MTS
WHERE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW TO THE
SW OF COLORADO WILL BE SHOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS DOWN ACROSS MT AND WY. THIS WILL ALLOW
PCPN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z
AND 21Z. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR A
RESURGENCE OF PCPN FOR THE E MTS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND AS THE
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER THE SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE PLAINS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN PERHAPS AN INCH...BUT LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW ACTIVITY PERSISTING
OVER THE S SANGRES LATER INTO THE NIGHT...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY THERE. OTHERWISE...ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS LOOK
REASONABLE AND NO NEED FOR BIG CHANGES. AS FOR TEMPS...A SLIGHTLY
LATER START TIME FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT
MILD TEMPS TO START THE DAY MEANS THAT MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LINGERING MAINLY UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE SE MTS/PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS.  COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE LEE TROF
REDEVELOPS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS/I-25 CORRIDOR
BEGIN TO WARM OVERNIGHT.  NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN LATE SPREADING
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.  MEANWHILE...SHOULD SEE A GOOD
WARM UP FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
KICKING THE LEE TROF EASTWARD AND SPREADING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS BRING THE NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  GFS IS BACK
TO ITS MORE AMPLIFIED AND HENCE WETTER SOLUTION FOR SOUTHERN CO.
ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED...HENCE NOT AS COLD OR AS WET AS THE GFS
SOLN.  CANADIAN SIDES CLOSER TO THE GFS.  WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
POPS FOR THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AND SHADE TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM THE WARMER MODEL CONSENSUS SOLN. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SHOULD FAIR THE BEST WITH SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM GIVEN NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  GREATER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE SE MTS AND PLAINS GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.

FLAT UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BRINGING A NICE WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
TODAY...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FOR KCOS INITIALLY...THEN FOR KPUB AROUND 22-24Z.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR KALS THROUGH 16Z AS SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE SURROUNDING MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SLV. FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060-061-066>068-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 310535
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1035 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE DATABASE AND TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED NR THE SRN TIP OF NV THRU THE NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS CO.

AS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FALLING OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AREAS WHERE PCPN IS FALLING DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT AS
TEMPS COOL AREAS WITH RAIN WL SEE THAT CHANGE OVR THE SNOW.  BY LATE
NIGHT AND THRU SAT MORNING...THE NAM IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SERN CORNER
LATE TONIGHT. WHILE OVR THE MTNS...IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. AS THAT SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS OVR THE
STATE SAT AFTERNOON...THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN FROM THE TELLER
COUNTY AREA...ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  IT ALSO
INCREASES PCPN CHANCES OVR NRN EL PASO COUNTY AS NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS OVR THE PALMER DVD. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH
SNOWFALL IN THOSE AREAS AS THE NAM...SO WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO MODELS. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SAT AFTERNOON ON THE 18Z RUN OF THE
NAM.  THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT...WITH THE FAR SERN PLAINS
BEING WETTER THAN THE NAM FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
HIGH SCT POPS OVR THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SERN
PLAINS.  LATER SHIFTS CAN GET A LOOK AT THE EVENING MODEL RUNS AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED. GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO
WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
FILLING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO BE RAINING SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HITTING THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA AREAS HARDEST AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.
SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN AN
INCH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
SNOW TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH IT HANGING ON
THE LONGEST ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA...WITH ALL
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS KEEP ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WESTERLY MIXING WILL
HELP THE EASTERN PLAINS RAPIDLY WARM UP WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EXPECTED. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE ANY SNOW COVER WHICH MAY
LIMIT WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROP IT SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...DROPPING A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT COMING IN
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
KEEPING ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE
LOW POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE ROCKIES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CIGS AND VIS AT COS AND PUB THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORT
WAVE WITHIN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AFT 22Z THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON
GRASSY AREAS.

IFR AND LIFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z WITH
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPING AS WEAK AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 16Z. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE NORTHWEST WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COULD BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AFT 22Z THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 310535
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1035 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE DATABASE AND TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED NR THE SRN TIP OF NV THRU THE NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS CO.

AS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FALLING OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AREAS WHERE PCPN IS FALLING DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT AS
TEMPS COOL AREAS WITH RAIN WL SEE THAT CHANGE OVR THE SNOW.  BY LATE
NIGHT AND THRU SAT MORNING...THE NAM IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SERN CORNER
LATE TONIGHT. WHILE OVR THE MTNS...IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. AS THAT SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS OVR THE
STATE SAT AFTERNOON...THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN FROM THE TELLER
COUNTY AREA...ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  IT ALSO
INCREASES PCPN CHANCES OVR NRN EL PASO COUNTY AS NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS OVR THE PALMER DVD. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH
SNOWFALL IN THOSE AREAS AS THE NAM...SO WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO MODELS. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SAT AFTERNOON ON THE 18Z RUN OF THE
NAM.  THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT...WITH THE FAR SERN PLAINS
BEING WETTER THAN THE NAM FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
HIGH SCT POPS OVR THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SERN
PLAINS.  LATER SHIFTS CAN GET A LOOK AT THE EVENING MODEL RUNS AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED. GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO
WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
FILLING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO BE RAINING SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HITTING THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA AREAS HARDEST AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.
SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN AN
INCH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
SNOW TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH IT HANGING ON
THE LONGEST ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA...WITH ALL
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS KEEP ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WESTERLY MIXING WILL
HELP THE EASTERN PLAINS RAPIDLY WARM UP WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EXPECTED. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE ANY SNOW COVER WHICH MAY
LIMIT WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROP IT SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...DROPPING A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT COMING IN
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
KEEPING ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE
LOW POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE ROCKIES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CIGS AND VIS AT COS AND PUB THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORT
WAVE WITHIN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AFT 22Z THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON
GRASSY AREAS.

IFR AND LIFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z WITH
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPING AS WEAK AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 16Z. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE NORTHWEST WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COULD BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AFT 22Z THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 310154
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
654 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE DATABASE AND TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED NR THE SRN TIP OF NV THRU THE NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS CO.

AS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FALLING OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AREAS WHERE PCPN IS FALLING DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT AS
TEMPS COOL AREAS WITH RAIN WL SEE THAT CHANGE OVR THE SNOW.  BY LATE
NIGHT AND THRU SAT MORNING...THE NAM IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SERN CORNER
LATE TONIGHT. WHILE OVR THE MTNS...IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. AS THAT SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS OVR THE
STATE SAT AFTERNOON...THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN FROM THE TELLER
COUNTY AREA...ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  IT ALSO
INCREASES PCPN CHANCES OVR NRN EL PASO COUNTY AS NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS OVR THE PALMER DVD. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH
SNOWFALL IN THOSE AREAS AS THE NAM...SO WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO MODELS. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SAT AFTERNOON ON THE 18Z RUN OF THE
NAM.  THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT...WITH THE FAR SERN PLAINS
BEING WETTER THAN THE NAM FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
HIGH SCT POPS OVR THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SERN
PLAINS.  LATER SHIFTS CAN GET A LOOK AT THE EVENING MODEL RUNS AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED. GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO
WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
FILLING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO BE RAINING SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HITTING THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA AREAS HARDEST AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.
SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN AN
INCH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
SNOW TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH IT HANGING ON
THE LONGEST ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA...WITH ALL
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS KEEP ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WESTERLY MIXING WILL
HELP THE EASTERN PLAINS RAPIDLY WARM UP WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EXPECTED. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE ANY SNOW COVER WHICH MAY
LIMIT WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROP IT SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...DROPPING A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT COMING IN
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
KEEPING ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE
LOW POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE ROCKIES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

KALS WILL HAVE VARIABLE CLOUDS HEIGHTS WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH SNOW SHOWER...MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THE EVENING.  AFTER 06Z
CHANCES FOR SNOW MAY DECREASE AND THERE COULD BE VFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES BUT SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WL PROBABLY STILL KEEP CIGS/VSBYS
IN THE MVFR AND MAYBE IFR CATEGORY.  KCOS AND KPUB WL HAVE SOME
CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NIGHT WHEN THE NAM
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 310154
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
654 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE DATABASE AND TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED NR THE SRN TIP OF NV THRU THE NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS CO.

AS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FALLING OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AREAS WHERE PCPN IS FALLING DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT AS
TEMPS COOL AREAS WITH RAIN WL SEE THAT CHANGE OVR THE SNOW.  BY LATE
NIGHT AND THRU SAT MORNING...THE NAM IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SERN CORNER
LATE TONIGHT. WHILE OVR THE MTNS...IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. AS THAT SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS OVR THE
STATE SAT AFTERNOON...THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN FROM THE TELLER
COUNTY AREA...ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  IT ALSO
INCREASES PCPN CHANCES OVR NRN EL PASO COUNTY AS NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS OVR THE PALMER DVD. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH
SNOWFALL IN THOSE AREAS AS THE NAM...SO WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO MODELS. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SAT AFTERNOON ON THE 18Z RUN OF THE
NAM.  THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT...WITH THE FAR SERN PLAINS
BEING WETTER THAN THE NAM FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
HIGH SCT POPS OVR THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SERN
PLAINS.  LATER SHIFTS CAN GET A LOOK AT THE EVENING MODEL RUNS AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED. GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO
WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
FILLING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO BE RAINING SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HITTING THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA AREAS HARDEST AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.
SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN AN
INCH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
SNOW TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH IT HANGING ON
THE LONGEST ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA...WITH ALL
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS KEEP ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WESTERLY MIXING WILL
HELP THE EASTERN PLAINS RAPIDLY WARM UP WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EXPECTED. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE ANY SNOW COVER WHICH MAY
LIMIT WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROP IT SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...DROPPING A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT COMING IN
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
KEEPING ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE
LOW POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE ROCKIES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

KALS WILL HAVE VARIABLE CLOUDS HEIGHTS WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH SNOW SHOWER...MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THE EVENING.  AFTER 06Z
CHANCES FOR SNOW MAY DECREASE AND THERE COULD BE VFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES BUT SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WL PROBABLY STILL KEEP CIGS/VSBYS
IN THE MVFR AND MAYBE IFR CATEGORY.  KCOS AND KPUB WL HAVE SOME
CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NIGHT WHEN THE NAM
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 302158
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
258 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED NR THE SRN TIP OF NV THRU THE NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS CO.

AS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FALLING OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AREAS WHERE PCPN IS FALLING DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT AS
TEMPS COOL AREAS WITH RAIN WL SEE THAT CHANGE OVR THE SNOW.  BY LATE
NIGHT AND THRU SAT MORNING...THE NAM IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SERN CORNER
LATE TONIGHT. WHILE OVR THE MTNS...IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. AS THAT SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS OVR THE
STATE SAT AFTERNOON...THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN FROM THE TELLER
COUNTY AREA...ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  IT ALSO
INCREASES PCPN CHANCES OVR NRN EL PASO COUNTY AS NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS OVR THE PALMER DVD. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH
SNOWFALL IN THOSE AREAS AS THE NAM...SO WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO MODELS. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SAT AFTERNOON ON THE 18Z RUN OF THE
NAM.  THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT...WITH THE FAR SERN PLAINS
BEING WETTER THAN THE NAM FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
HIGH SCT POPS OVR THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SERN
PLAINS.  LATER SHIFTS CAN GET A LOOK AT THE EVENING MODEL RUNS AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED. GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO
WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
FILLING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO BE RAINING SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HITTING THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA AREAS HARDEST AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.
SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN AN
INCH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
SNOW TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH IT HANGING ON
THE LONGEST ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA...WITH ALL
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS KEEP ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WESTERLY MIXING WILL
HELP THE EASTERN PLAINS RAPIDLY WARM UP WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EXPECTED. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE ANY SNOW COVER WHICH MAY
LIMIT WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROP IT SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...DROPPING A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT COMING IN
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
KEEPING ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE
LOW POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE ROCKIES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

KALS WILL HAVE VARIABLE CLOUDS HEIGHTS WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH SNOW SHOWER...MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THE EVENING.  AFTER 06Z
CHANCES FOR SNOW MAY DECREASE AND THERE COULD BE VFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES BUT SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WL PROBABLY STILL KEEP CIGS/VSBYS
IN THE MVFR AND MAYBE IFR CATEGORY.  KCOS AND KPUB WL HAVE SOME
CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NIGHT WHEN THE NAM
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 302158
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
258 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED NR THE SRN TIP OF NV THRU THE NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS CO.

AS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FALLING OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AREAS WHERE PCPN IS FALLING DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT AS
TEMPS COOL AREAS WITH RAIN WL SEE THAT CHANGE OVR THE SNOW.  BY LATE
NIGHT AND THRU SAT MORNING...THE NAM IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SERN CORNER
LATE TONIGHT. WHILE OVR THE MTNS...IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. AS THAT SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS OVR THE
STATE SAT AFTERNOON...THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN FROM THE TELLER
COUNTY AREA...ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  IT ALSO
INCREASES PCPN CHANCES OVR NRN EL PASO COUNTY AS NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS OVR THE PALMER DVD. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH
SNOWFALL IN THOSE AREAS AS THE NAM...SO WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO MODELS. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SAT AFTERNOON ON THE 18Z RUN OF THE
NAM.  THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT...WITH THE FAR SERN PLAINS
BEING WETTER THAN THE NAM FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
HIGH SCT POPS OVR THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SERN
PLAINS.  LATER SHIFTS CAN GET A LOOK AT THE EVENING MODEL RUNS AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED. GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO
WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
FILLING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO BE RAINING SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HITTING THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA AREAS HARDEST AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.
SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN AN
INCH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
SNOW TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH IT HANGING ON
THE LONGEST ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA...WITH ALL
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS KEEP ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WESTERLY MIXING WILL
HELP THE EASTERN PLAINS RAPIDLY WARM UP WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EXPECTED. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE ANY SNOW COVER WHICH MAY
LIMIT WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROP IT SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...DROPPING A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT COMING IN
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
KEEPING ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE
LOW POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE ROCKIES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

KALS WILL HAVE VARIABLE CLOUDS HEIGHTS WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH SNOW SHOWER...MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THE EVENING.  AFTER 06Z
CHANCES FOR SNOW MAY DECREASE AND THERE COULD BE VFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES BUT SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WL PROBABLY STILL KEEP CIGS/VSBYS
IN THE MVFR AND MAYBE IFR CATEGORY.  KCOS AND KPUB WL HAVE SOME
CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NIGHT WHEN THE NAM
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 301728
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1028 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CA WAS DRAWING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE UP ACROSS AZ AND NM...AND PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES
FOR CO. LIGHT SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AND SAN LUIS
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WHILE THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 30F FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 4 AM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACROSS AZ...NM AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CO. S-SW SFC WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
HELP TO WARM THE PLAINS TO AROUND 50F...SO ANY PCPN THAT FALLS THERE
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE LIQUID. THEREFORE...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TO THE PAST DAY OR SO...THE AREA THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE THE SW MTS...AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE S SANGRES. ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS LOOK FINE AT THIS
TIME THOUGH THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS ARE A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE...BUT
WILL KEEP THINGS AS IS FOR NOW. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD VERY EARLY SAT MORN...SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

...CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH SATURDAY...DRYING OUT FOR SUNDAY...

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO SRN AZ/NORTHWEST OLD
MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM DROPS
THROUGH THE NRN U.S ROCKIES AND ACROSS NORTHEAST CO SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN CO IN BETWEEN THE
SYSTEMS...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST OUT
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CO ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY
SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
ITS THIS LATTER DETAIL THAT THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON.
NAM12 IS HEAVIER WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
(1-3") SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE AS GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT...AS MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ENERGY
EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW IS RATHER WEAK
AND NONDESCRIPT. THINK IT GOING TO COME DOWN TO TIMING OF BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES AND WHETHER THEY CAN ACT TOGETHER TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY HOW THESE DETAILS
EVOLVE FOR THE SATURDAY EVENING PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ADVISORIES FOR
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS STILL LOOK WARRANTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
WITH CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT...BUT WILL ALSO BE COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
BRISK NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.  LEE
TROFFING WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY DROP
INTO SOUTHEAST CO FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS AS 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN KEEPING
THE COLDER AIR FARTHER NORTH UNTIL PERHAPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT CATEGORY FOR NOW.  EVENTUALLY ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES FOR FRIDAY...SO EXPECT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SPREAD IN
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS
IN THE VCNTY THROUGH THIS TIME. TONIGHT KPUB AND KCOS WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE TOWARD MORNING THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WL DECREASE.

KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. SKY AND VSBY CONDITIONS WL BE VARIABLE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...SOMETIMES MVFR...THEN TONIGHT THERE WL
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301728
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1028 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CA WAS DRAWING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE UP ACROSS AZ AND NM...AND PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES
FOR CO. LIGHT SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AND SAN LUIS
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WHILE THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 30F FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 4 AM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACROSS AZ...NM AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CO. S-SW SFC WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
HELP TO WARM THE PLAINS TO AROUND 50F...SO ANY PCPN THAT FALLS THERE
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE LIQUID. THEREFORE...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TO THE PAST DAY OR SO...THE AREA THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE THE SW MTS...AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE S SANGRES. ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS LOOK FINE AT THIS
TIME THOUGH THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS ARE A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE...BUT
WILL KEEP THINGS AS IS FOR NOW. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD VERY EARLY SAT MORN...SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

...CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH SATURDAY...DRYING OUT FOR SUNDAY...

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO SRN AZ/NORTHWEST OLD
MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM DROPS
THROUGH THE NRN U.S ROCKIES AND ACROSS NORTHEAST CO SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN CO IN BETWEEN THE
SYSTEMS...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST OUT
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CO ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY
SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
ITS THIS LATTER DETAIL THAT THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON.
NAM12 IS HEAVIER WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
(1-3") SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE AS GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT...AS MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ENERGY
EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW IS RATHER WEAK
AND NONDESCRIPT. THINK IT GOING TO COME DOWN TO TIMING OF BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES AND WHETHER THEY CAN ACT TOGETHER TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY HOW THESE DETAILS
EVOLVE FOR THE SATURDAY EVENING PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ADVISORIES FOR
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS STILL LOOK WARRANTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
WITH CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT...BUT WILL ALSO BE COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
BRISK NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.  LEE
TROFFING WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY DROP
INTO SOUTHEAST CO FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS AS 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN KEEPING
THE COLDER AIR FARTHER NORTH UNTIL PERHAPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT CATEGORY FOR NOW.  EVENTUALLY ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES FOR FRIDAY...SO EXPECT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SPREAD IN
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS
IN THE VCNTY THROUGH THIS TIME. TONIGHT KPUB AND KCOS WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE TOWARD MORNING THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WL DECREASE.

KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. SKY AND VSBY CONDITIONS WL BE VARIABLE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...SOMETIMES MVFR...THEN TONIGHT THERE WL
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 301644
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
944 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CA WAS DRAWING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE UP ACROSS AZ AND NM...AND PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES
FOR CO. LIGHT SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AND SAN LUIS
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WHILE THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 30F FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 4 AM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACROSS AZ...NM AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CO. S-SW SFC WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
HELP TO WARM THE PLAINS TO AROUND 50F...SO ANY PCPN THAT FALLS THERE
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE LIQUID. THEREFORE...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TO THE PAST DAY OR SO...THE AREA THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE THE SW MTS...AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE S SANGRES. ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS LOOK FINE AT THIS
TIME THOUGH THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS ARE A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE...BUT
WILL KEEP THINGS AS IS FOR NOW. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD VERY EARLY SAT MORN...SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

...CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH SATURDAY...DRYING OUT FOR SUNDAY...

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO SRN AZ/NORTHWEST OLD
MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM DROPS
THROUGH THE NRN U.S ROCKIES AND ACROSS NORTHEAST CO SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN CO IN BETWEEN THE
SYSTEMS...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST OUT
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CO ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY
SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
ITS THIS LATTER DETAIL THAT THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON.
NAM12 IS HEAVIER WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
(1-3") SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE AS GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT...AS MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ENERGY
EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW IS RATHER WEAK
AND NONDESCRIPT. THINK IT GOING TO COME DOWN TO TIMING OF BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES AND WHETHER THEY CAN ACT TOGETHER TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY HOW THESE DETAILS
EVOLVE FOR THE SATURDAY EVENING PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ADVISORIES FOR
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS STILL LOOK WARRANTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
WITH CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT...BUT WILL ALSO BE COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
BRISK NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.  LEE
TROFFING WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY DROP
INTO SOUTHEAST CO FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS AS 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN KEEPING
THE COLDER AIR FARTHER NORTH UNTIL PERHAPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT CATEGORY FOR NOW.  EVENTUALLY ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES FOR FRIDAY...SO EXPECT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SPREAD IN
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

KALS...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND LOW CLOUD DECK
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...THEN LOWERING CIGS
WITH ISOLATED PCPN LEADING TO POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KCOS
AFTER 23Z...AND AFTER 01Z FOR KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301644
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
944 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CA WAS DRAWING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE UP ACROSS AZ AND NM...AND PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES
FOR CO. LIGHT SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AND SAN LUIS
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WHILE THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 30F FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 4 AM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACROSS AZ...NM AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CO. S-SW SFC WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
HELP TO WARM THE PLAINS TO AROUND 50F...SO ANY PCPN THAT FALLS THERE
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE LIQUID. THEREFORE...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TO THE PAST DAY OR SO...THE AREA THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE THE SW MTS...AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE S SANGRES. ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS LOOK FINE AT THIS
TIME THOUGH THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS ARE A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE...BUT
WILL KEEP THINGS AS IS FOR NOW. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD VERY EARLY SAT MORN...SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

...CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH SATURDAY...DRYING OUT FOR SUNDAY...

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO SRN AZ/NORTHWEST OLD
MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM DROPS
THROUGH THE NRN U.S ROCKIES AND ACROSS NORTHEAST CO SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN CO IN BETWEEN THE
SYSTEMS...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST OUT
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CO ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY
SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
ITS THIS LATTER DETAIL THAT THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON.
NAM12 IS HEAVIER WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
(1-3") SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE AS GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT...AS MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ENERGY
EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW IS RATHER WEAK
AND NONDESCRIPT. THINK IT GOING TO COME DOWN TO TIMING OF BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES AND WHETHER THEY CAN ACT TOGETHER TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY HOW THESE DETAILS
EVOLVE FOR THE SATURDAY EVENING PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ADVISORIES FOR
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS STILL LOOK WARRANTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
WITH CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT...BUT WILL ALSO BE COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
BRISK NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.  LEE
TROFFING WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY DROP
INTO SOUTHEAST CO FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS AS 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN KEEPING
THE COLDER AIR FARTHER NORTH UNTIL PERHAPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT CATEGORY FOR NOW.  EVENTUALLY ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES FOR FRIDAY...SO EXPECT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SPREAD IN
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

KALS...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND LOW CLOUD DECK
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...THEN LOWERING CIGS
WITH ISOLATED PCPN LEADING TO POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KCOS
AFTER 23Z...AND AFTER 01Z FOR KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 301123
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
423 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CA WAS DRAWING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE UP ACROSS AZ AND NM...AND PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES
FOR CO. LIGHT SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AND SAN LUIS
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WHILE THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 30F FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 4 AM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACROSS AZ...NM AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CO. S-SW SFC WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
HELP TO WARM THE PLAINS TO AROUND 50F...SO ANY PCPN THAT FALLS THERE
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE LIQUID. THEREFORE...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TO THE PAST DAY OR SO...THE AREA THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE THE SW MTS...AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE S SANGRES. ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS LOOK FINE AT THIS
TIME THOUGH THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS ARE A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE...BUT
WILL KEEP THINGS AS IS FOR NOW. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD VERY EARLY SAT MORN...SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

...CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH SATURDAY...DRYING OUT FOR SUNDAY...

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO SRN AZ/NORTHWEST OLD
MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM DROPS
THROUGH THE NRN U.S ROCKIES AND ACROSS NORTHEAST CO SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN CO IN BETWEEN THE
SYSTEMS...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST OUT
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CO ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY
SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
ITS THIS LATTER DETAIL THAT THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON.
NAM12 IS HEAVIER WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
(1-3") SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE AS GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT...AS MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ENERGY
EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW IS RATHER WEAK
AND NONDESCRIPT. THINK IT GOING TO COME DOWN TO TIMING OF BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES AND WHETHER THEY CAN ACT TOGETHER TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY HOW THESE DETAILS
EVOLVE FOR THE SATURDAY EVENING PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ADVISORIES FOR
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS STILL LOOK WARRANTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
WITH CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT...BUT WILL ALSO BE COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
BRISK NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.  LEE
TROFFING WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY DROP
INTO SOUTHEAST CO FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS AS 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN KEEPING
THE COLDER AIR FARTHER NORTH UNTIL PERHAPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT CATEGORY FOR NOW.  EVENTUALLY ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES FOR FRIDAY...SO EXPECT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SPREAD IN
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

KALS...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND LOW CLOUD DECK
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...THEN LOWERING CIGS
WITH ISOLATED PCPN LEADING TO POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KCOS
AFTER 23Z...AND AFTER 01Z FOR KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 300536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR KALS....SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...BUT WILL CAUSE LOWER CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY.

FOR KCOS...THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TOMORROW
LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WE MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVING IN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS AND PRECIP LEADING TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

FOR KPUB...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
LOWER CIGS LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR KALS....SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...BUT WILL CAUSE LOWER CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY.

FOR KCOS...THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TOMORROW
LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WE MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVING IN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS AND PRECIP LEADING TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

FOR KPUB...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
LOWER CIGS LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 292149
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
249 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AFTER ABOUT 18Z FRI. KALS
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
LATER TONIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AND
CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. ON FRI AT KALS THERE WL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER IN THE AREA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH
AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 292149
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
249 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AFTER ABOUT 18Z FRI. KALS
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
LATER TONIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AND
CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. ON FRI AT KALS THERE WL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER IN THE AREA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH
AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291757
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1057 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY AND MADE SOME MINOR SKY
COVER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. TOO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST BUT WL
INCLUDE VCSH.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291726
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1026 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. TOO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST BUT WL
INCLUDE VCSH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291726
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1026 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. TOO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST BUT WL
INCLUDE VCSH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291641
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
941 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291641
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
941 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291428
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
728 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291428
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
728 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
408 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
408 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




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