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000
FXUS65 KPUB 231722
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...QUICK BURST OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

UPPER TROF IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING
ALONG THE CONTDVD BASED ON WEB CAMS.  HAVE EVEN SEEN PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
SAGUACHE AND JUST SOUTH VILLA GROVE IN CDOT CAMS.  MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE PALMER DIVIDE AND STARTING TO SEE SNOW FILL IN
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 4 AM.

AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE RAIN/SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS ARE A LOT HEAVIER HANDED WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS A LITTLE SHARPER...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK MORE NORTHERLY...AND EVEN A TAD
NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 12-13Z...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH AT TIMES.  RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS RACE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THROUGH 15Z...THEN ACROSS THE NRN RATON RIDGE AND LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z.  NAM12 AND
ESPECIALLY ITS 06Z RUN HAS REALLY COME IN HOT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE SE MTS...INDICATING 5-10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
HUERFANO...SOUTHERN CUSTER AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS SHOWS GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES.  RAP13 HAS AROUND 2-
4 INCHES ACROSS NRN EL PASO...AND 1-6 ACROSS THE SE MTS/SRN I-25
CORRIDOR.  WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RES MODELS ARE PROBABLY CORRECT IN KEEPING CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ONCE
THE MAIN UPPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z...AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.  THAT SAID...HAVE
SEEN CASES LIKE THIS WHERE A PERSISTENT NARROW BAND CAN ACCUMULATE
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW...WHILE A COUPLE MILES EITHER SIDE GET
NEXT TO NOTHING.  SO THE CONVECTIVE WILD CARD WILL BE A CHALLENGE
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. EITHER WAY...NAM12 SEEMS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM TOO MUCH CONVECTION IN THE MODEL RESULTING IN AMOUNTS
THAT LOOK TOO HEAVY AND WIDESPREAD.  HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TOWARDS A
RAP AND HRRR BLEND FOR NOW.

MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HEAVY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TAILING BACK SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING WEAKENS.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
OROGRAPHIC SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.  CURRENT
SET OF HEADLINES PARES OUT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AT 5 PM AND THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BY 11 PM
THIS EVENING.  SUSPECT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN
SOONER...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AM HESITANT TO MODIFY ENDING TIMES JUST YET.  CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN HEADLINES ABOVE 11KFT CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE EVENT GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SNOW EVEN THOUGH IT MAY DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE SE MTS BY
MIDNIGHT. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND POPS(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES).

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AT TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS)...EXPECT A
BASICALLY DRY AND MILD METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN TO GRACE THE
CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ARE PROJECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AS
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...LOW-GRADE TO NIL POPS AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO PROJECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MONDAY INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

THEN...AS BASICALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND...PROJECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON-PLACE IN
COMBINATION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...RECENT GFS40 AND DGEX SOLUTIONS INDICATE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALLOWS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

HOWEVER...THE DGEX...ECMWF AND GFS40 SOLUTIONS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

FINALLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
DURING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN AREA OF SNOW HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF KCOS AND KPUB...AND WHILE
BOTH SITES MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED -SHSN REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH THE
NEXT 24 HRS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS BOTH TERMINALS. AT
KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THREAT OF -SHSN HAS JUST ABOUT
ENDED WITH MOST SNOWFALL REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SANGRES/WETS/SRN I-25 CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY MVFR/IFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ059-
061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231722
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...QUICK BURST OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

UPPER TROF IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING
ALONG THE CONTDVD BASED ON WEB CAMS.  HAVE EVEN SEEN PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
SAGUACHE AND JUST SOUTH VILLA GROVE IN CDOT CAMS.  MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE PALMER DIVIDE AND STARTING TO SEE SNOW FILL IN
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 4 AM.

AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE RAIN/SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS ARE A LOT HEAVIER HANDED WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS A LITTLE SHARPER...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK MORE NORTHERLY...AND EVEN A TAD
NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 12-13Z...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH AT TIMES.  RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS RACE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THROUGH 15Z...THEN ACROSS THE NRN RATON RIDGE AND LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z.  NAM12 AND
ESPECIALLY ITS 06Z RUN HAS REALLY COME IN HOT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE SE MTS...INDICATING 5-10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
HUERFANO...SOUTHERN CUSTER AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS SHOWS GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES.  RAP13 HAS AROUND 2-
4 INCHES ACROSS NRN EL PASO...AND 1-6 ACROSS THE SE MTS/SRN I-25
CORRIDOR.  WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RES MODELS ARE PROBABLY CORRECT IN KEEPING CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ONCE
THE MAIN UPPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z...AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.  THAT SAID...HAVE
SEEN CASES LIKE THIS WHERE A PERSISTENT NARROW BAND CAN ACCUMULATE
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW...WHILE A COUPLE MILES EITHER SIDE GET
NEXT TO NOTHING.  SO THE CONVECTIVE WILD CARD WILL BE A CHALLENGE
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. EITHER WAY...NAM12 SEEMS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM TOO MUCH CONVECTION IN THE MODEL RESULTING IN AMOUNTS
THAT LOOK TOO HEAVY AND WIDESPREAD.  HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TOWARDS A
RAP AND HRRR BLEND FOR NOW.

MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HEAVY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TAILING BACK SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING WEAKENS.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
OROGRAPHIC SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.  CURRENT
SET OF HEADLINES PARES OUT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AT 5 PM AND THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BY 11 PM
THIS EVENING.  SUSPECT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN
SOONER...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AM HESITANT TO MODIFY ENDING TIMES JUST YET.  CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN HEADLINES ABOVE 11KFT CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE EVENT GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SNOW EVEN THOUGH IT MAY DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE SE MTS BY
MIDNIGHT. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND POPS(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES).

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AT TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS)...EXPECT A
BASICALLY DRY AND MILD METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN TO GRACE THE
CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ARE PROJECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AS
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...LOW-GRADE TO NIL POPS AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO PROJECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MONDAY INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

THEN...AS BASICALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND...PROJECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON-PLACE IN
COMBINATION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...RECENT GFS40 AND DGEX SOLUTIONS INDICATE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALLOWS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

HOWEVER...THE DGEX...ECMWF AND GFS40 SOLUTIONS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

FINALLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
DURING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN AREA OF SNOW HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF KCOS AND KPUB...AND WHILE
BOTH SITES MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED -SHSN REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH THE
NEXT 24 HRS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS BOTH TERMINALS. AT
KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THREAT OF -SHSN HAS JUST ABOUT
ENDED WITH MOST SNOWFALL REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SANGRES/WETS/SRN I-25 CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY MVFR/IFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ059-
061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231154
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...QUICK BURST OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

UPPER TROF IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING
ALONG THE CONTDVD BASED ON WEB CAMS.  HAVE EVEN SEEN PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
SAGUACHE AND JUST SOUTH VILLA GROVE IN CDOT CAMS.  MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE PALMER DIVIDE AND STARTING TO SEE SNOW FILL IN
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 4 AM.

AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE RAIN/SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS ARE A LOT HEAVIER HANDED WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS A LITTLE SHARPER...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK MORE NORTHERLY...AND EVEN A TAD
NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 12-13Z...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH AT TIMES.  RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS RACE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THROUGH 15Z...THEN ACROSS THE NRN RATON RIDGE AND LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z.  NAM12 AND
ESPECIALLY ITS 06Z RUN HAS REALLY COME IN HOT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE SE MTS...INDICATING 5-10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
HUERFANO...SOUTHERN CUSTER AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS SHOWS GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES.  RAP13 HAS AROUND 2-
4 INCHES ACROSS NRN EL PASO...AND 1-6 ACROSS THE SE MTS/SRN I-25
CORRIDOR.  WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RES MODELS ARE PROBABLY CORRECT IN KEEPING CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ONCE
THE MAIN UPPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z...AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.  THAT SAID...HAVE
SEEN CASES LIKE THIS WHERE A PERSISTENT NARROW BAND CAN ACCUMULATE
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW...WHILE A COUPLE MILES EITHER SIDE GET
NEXT TO NOTHING.  SO THE CONVECTIVE WILD CARD WILL BE A CHALLENGE
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. EITHER WAY...NAM12 SEEMS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM TOO MUCH CONVECTION IN THE MODEL RESULTING IN AMOUNTS
THAT LOOK TOO HEAVY AND WIDESPREAD.  HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TOWARDS A
RAP AND HRRR BLEND FOR NOW.

MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HEAVY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TAILING BACK SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING WEAKENS.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
OROGRAPHIC SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.  CURRENT
SET OF HEADLINES PARES OUT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AT 5 PM AND THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BY 11 PM
THIS EVENING.  SUSPECT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN
SOONER...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AM HESITANT TO MODIFY ENDING TIMES JUST YET.  CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN HEADLINES ABOVE 11KFT CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE EVENT GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SNOW EVEN THOUGH IT MAY DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE SE MTS BY
MIDNIGHT. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND POPS(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES).

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AT TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS)...EXPECT A
BASICALLY DRY AND MILD METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN TO GRACE THE
CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ARE PROJECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AS
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...LOW-GRADE TO NIL POPS AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO PROJECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MONDAY INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

THEN...AS BASICALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND...PROJECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON-PLACE IN
COMBINATION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...RECENT GFS40 AND DGEX SOLUTIONS INDICATE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALLOWS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

HOWEVER...THE DGEX...ECMWF AND GFS40 SOLUTIONS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

FINALLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
DURING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF -SHRASN WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PACKING NORTH WINDS 20-40 KT.  THIS FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH ALL OF
SE CO BY 12-13Z.  BRUNT OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE RATON
RIDGE...AND THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK/TELLER
COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND SRN I-
25 CORRIDOR.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  KCOS HAS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH 15Z...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
QUICK UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOW AT THE TERMINAL.  KPUB MAY SEE A BRIEF -
SHRASN VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT AS WELL...THOUGH PROBABILITY LOOKS
LOWER.  MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WITH
SHOWERS.  THIS WILL BE A QUICK BLAST...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FOR THE
MOST PART BY 16Z. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING FOR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WITH GUSTS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 25 KT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KALS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY -SHSN TODAY SO WILL LEAVE
IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.  SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AT KALS FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL START
TO SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ059-
061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231154
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...QUICK BURST OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

UPPER TROF IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING
ALONG THE CONTDVD BASED ON WEB CAMS.  HAVE EVEN SEEN PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
SAGUACHE AND JUST SOUTH VILLA GROVE IN CDOT CAMS.  MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE PALMER DIVIDE AND STARTING TO SEE SNOW FILL IN
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 4 AM.

AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE RAIN/SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS ARE A LOT HEAVIER HANDED WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS A LITTLE SHARPER...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK MORE NORTHERLY...AND EVEN A TAD
NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 12-13Z...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH AT TIMES.  RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS RACE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THROUGH 15Z...THEN ACROSS THE NRN RATON RIDGE AND LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z.  NAM12 AND
ESPECIALLY ITS 06Z RUN HAS REALLY COME IN HOT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE SE MTS...INDICATING 5-10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
HUERFANO...SOUTHERN CUSTER AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS SHOWS GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES.  RAP13 HAS AROUND 2-
4 INCHES ACROSS NRN EL PASO...AND 1-6 ACROSS THE SE MTS/SRN I-25
CORRIDOR.  WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RES MODELS ARE PROBABLY CORRECT IN KEEPING CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ONCE
THE MAIN UPPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z...AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.  THAT SAID...HAVE
SEEN CASES LIKE THIS WHERE A PERSISTENT NARROW BAND CAN ACCUMULATE
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW...WHILE A COUPLE MILES EITHER SIDE GET
NEXT TO NOTHING.  SO THE CONVECTIVE WILD CARD WILL BE A CHALLENGE
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. EITHER WAY...NAM12 SEEMS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM TOO MUCH CONVECTION IN THE MODEL RESULTING IN AMOUNTS
THAT LOOK TOO HEAVY AND WIDESPREAD.  HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TOWARDS A
RAP AND HRRR BLEND FOR NOW.

MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HEAVY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TAILING BACK SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING WEAKENS.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
OROGRAPHIC SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.  CURRENT
SET OF HEADLINES PARES OUT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AT 5 PM AND THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BY 11 PM
THIS EVENING.  SUSPECT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN
SOONER...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AM HESITANT TO MODIFY ENDING TIMES JUST YET.  CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN HEADLINES ABOVE 11KFT CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE EVENT GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SNOW EVEN THOUGH IT MAY DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE SE MTS BY
MIDNIGHT. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND POPS(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES).

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AT TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS)...EXPECT A
BASICALLY DRY AND MILD METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN TO GRACE THE
CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ARE PROJECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AS
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...LOW-GRADE TO NIL POPS AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO PROJECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MONDAY INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

THEN...AS BASICALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND...PROJECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON-PLACE IN
COMBINATION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...RECENT GFS40 AND DGEX SOLUTIONS INDICATE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALLOWS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

HOWEVER...THE DGEX...ECMWF AND GFS40 SOLUTIONS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

FINALLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
DURING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF -SHRASN WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PACKING NORTH WINDS 20-40 KT.  THIS FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH ALL OF
SE CO BY 12-13Z.  BRUNT OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE RATON
RIDGE...AND THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK/TELLER
COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND SRN I-
25 CORRIDOR.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  KCOS HAS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH 15Z...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
QUICK UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOW AT THE TERMINAL.  KPUB MAY SEE A BRIEF -
SHRASN VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT AS WELL...THOUGH PROBABILITY LOOKS
LOWER.  MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WITH
SHOWERS.  THIS WILL BE A QUICK BLAST...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FOR THE
MOST PART BY 16Z. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING FOR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WITH GUSTS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 25 KT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KALS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY -SHSN TODAY SO WILL LEAVE
IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.  SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AT KALS FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL START
TO SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ059-
061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 230545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH LATEST NAM...GFS AND HIGHER RES MODELS COMING IN STRONGER
WITH TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...HAVE DONE A MAJOR UPGRADE IN POPS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGION. WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG NORTHERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELYS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND THE PALMER DVD AFTER 9Z
AND LASTING THROUGH 15Z WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE SE MTS AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA. WITH
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 22Z. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HAVE BECOME BREEZY AND VERY MILD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH STRONG WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) DEVELOPING IN USUAL GAP
FLOW LOCATIONS (WALSENBURG/CANON CITY/PUEBLO WEST) AND ALSO ALONG
AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE (SALIDA/BUENA VISTA) FROM
MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...AS JET AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD
COLORADO...SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
00Z...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WHERE W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE. SNOW WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS...AND LOCATIONS AT AND ABOVE
PASS LEVEL WILL LIKELY GUST 40-50 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MONARCH...TENNESSEE AND FREMONT PASSES.
SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES
WILL BE LIGHTER AS W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY HERE AS
WELL...CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND
CUMBRES PASSES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD MORNING. CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT AND
WON`T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. FARTHER EAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK BY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS MILD OVER MOST LEE SLOPES AND OVER THE
PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO 25-35 KNOT NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

ON SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND 150 KNOT JET DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
AGAIN...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL -SHSN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOST ACCUMS AGAIN LOOK LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS. I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL SEE A FEW -SHSN/-SHRA
12Z-15Z SUN MORNING IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. NW WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WHILE INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY COLD/RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES SPLIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF FEATURES A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS SUPPORTS TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE
UPWARD TREND IN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND BETTER HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE BY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF...WITH SNOW DISSIPATING
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TEENS
EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
SNOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COOL HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
PLAINS DRY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT
LIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHWEST FACING
PEAKS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO END FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS FOR HIGHS. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS 15-20KT CONTINUING AT COS
AND PUB AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD STRONGER WITH TROUGH AND FRONT
WHICH LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO COS AROUND 10Z AND PUB AROUND 11Z WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-30KTS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT. WILL SEE
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
WHICH COULD MOVE ACROSS COS...BRINING UP TO A 1/2 INCH OF SNOW
FALL AND BRIEF MVFR OR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
RATON MESA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT PUB AT
THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

ALS WILL SEE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY 17Z SUN
AND DIMINISHING BY 01Z MON...WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AND
WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS CONTINUING WEST OF TERMINAL ACROSS THE
CONTDVD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 230545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH LATEST NAM...GFS AND HIGHER RES MODELS COMING IN STRONGER
WITH TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...HAVE DONE A MAJOR UPGRADE IN POPS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGION. WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG NORTHERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELYS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND THE PALMER DVD AFTER 9Z
AND LASTING THROUGH 15Z WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE SE MTS AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA. WITH
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 22Z. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HAVE BECOME BREEZY AND VERY MILD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH STRONG WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) DEVELOPING IN USUAL GAP
FLOW LOCATIONS (WALSENBURG/CANON CITY/PUEBLO WEST) AND ALSO ALONG
AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE (SALIDA/BUENA VISTA) FROM
MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...AS JET AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD
COLORADO...SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
00Z...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WHERE W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE. SNOW WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS...AND LOCATIONS AT AND ABOVE
PASS LEVEL WILL LIKELY GUST 40-50 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MONARCH...TENNESSEE AND FREMONT PASSES.
SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES
WILL BE LIGHTER AS W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY HERE AS
WELL...CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND
CUMBRES PASSES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD MORNING. CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT AND
WON`T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. FARTHER EAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK BY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS MILD OVER MOST LEE SLOPES AND OVER THE
PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO 25-35 KNOT NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

ON SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND 150 KNOT JET DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
AGAIN...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL -SHSN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOST ACCUMS AGAIN LOOK LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS. I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL SEE A FEW -SHSN/-SHRA
12Z-15Z SUN MORNING IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. NW WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WHILE INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY COLD/RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES SPLIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF FEATURES A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS SUPPORTS TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE
UPWARD TREND IN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND BETTER HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE BY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF...WITH SNOW DISSIPATING
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TEENS
EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
SNOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COOL HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
PLAINS DRY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT
LIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHWEST FACING
PEAKS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO END FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS FOR HIGHS. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS 15-20KT CONTINUING AT COS
AND PUB AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD STRONGER WITH TROUGH AND FRONT
WHICH LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO COS AROUND 10Z AND PUB AROUND 11Z WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-30KTS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT. WILL SEE
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
WHICH COULD MOVE ACROSS COS...BRINING UP TO A 1/2 INCH OF SNOW
FALL AND BRIEF MVFR OR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
RATON MESA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT PUB AT
THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

ALS WILL SEE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY 17Z SUN
AND DIMINISHING BY 01Z MON...WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AND
WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS CONTINUING WEST OF TERMINAL ACROSS THE
CONTDVD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 230427
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH LATEST NAM...GFS AND HIGHER RES MODELS COMING IN STRONGER
WITH TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...HAVE DONE A MAJOR UPGRADE IN POPS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGION. WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG NORTHERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELYS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND THE PALMER DVD AFTER 9Z
AND LASTING THROUGH 15Z WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE SE MTS AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA. WITH
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 22Z. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HAVE BECOME BREEZY AND VERY MILD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH STRONG WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) DEVELOPING IN USUAL GAP
FLOW LOCATIONS (WALSENBURG/CANON CITY/PUEBLO WEST) AND ALSO ALONG
AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE (SALIDA/BUENA VISTA) FROM
MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...AS JET AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD
COLORADO...SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
00Z...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WHERE W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE. SNOW WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS...AND LOCATIONS AT AND ABOVE
PASS LEVEL WILL LIKELY GUST 40-50 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MONARCH...TENNESSEE AND FREMONT PASSES.
SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES
WILL BE LIGHTER AS W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY HERE AS
WELL...CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND
CUMBRES PASSES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD MORNING. CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT AND
WON`T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. FARTHER EAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK BY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS MILD OVER MOST LEE SLOPES AND OVER THE
PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO 25-35 KNOT NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

ON SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND 150 KNOT JET DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
AGAIN...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL -SHSN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOST ACCUMS AGAIN LOOK LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS. I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL SEE A FEW -SHSN/-SHRA
12Z-15Z SUN MORNING IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. NW WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WHILE INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY COLD/RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES SPLIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF FEATURES A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS SUPPORTS TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE
UPWARD TREND IN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND BETTER HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE BY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF...WITH SNOW DISSIPATING
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TEENS
EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
SNOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COOL HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
PLAINS DRY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT
LIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHWEST FACING
PEAKS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO END FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS FOR HIGHS. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LEE OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF 40-50 KNOT GUSTS ALONG THE LOWER
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. KCOS MAY STAY SHADOWED ENOUGH BY PIKES
PEAK TO KEEP WINDS THERE LIGHT (10-15 KT)SW...WHILE GAP FLOW HAS
REACHED KPUB AS OF 22Z...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD
THIS EVENING WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30
KTS EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z. A BRIEF -SHSN
WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SITES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 230427
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH LATEST NAM...GFS AND HIGHER RES MODELS COMING IN STRONGER
WITH TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...HAVE DONE A MAJOR UPGRADE IN POPS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGION. WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG NORTHERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELYS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND THE PALMER DVD AFTER 9Z
AND LASTING THROUGH 15Z WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE SE MTS AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA. WITH
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 22Z. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HAVE BECOME BREEZY AND VERY MILD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH STRONG WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) DEVELOPING IN USUAL GAP
FLOW LOCATIONS (WALSENBURG/CANON CITY/PUEBLO WEST) AND ALSO ALONG
AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE (SALIDA/BUENA VISTA) FROM
MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...AS JET AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD
COLORADO...SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
00Z...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WHERE W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE. SNOW WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS...AND LOCATIONS AT AND ABOVE
PASS LEVEL WILL LIKELY GUST 40-50 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MONARCH...TENNESSEE AND FREMONT PASSES.
SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES
WILL BE LIGHTER AS W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY HERE AS
WELL...CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND
CUMBRES PASSES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD MORNING. CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT AND
WON`T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. FARTHER EAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK BY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS MILD OVER MOST LEE SLOPES AND OVER THE
PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO 25-35 KNOT NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

ON SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND 150 KNOT JET DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
AGAIN...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL -SHSN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOST ACCUMS AGAIN LOOK LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS. I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL SEE A FEW -SHSN/-SHRA
12Z-15Z SUN MORNING IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. NW WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WHILE INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY COLD/RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES SPLIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF FEATURES A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS SUPPORTS TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE
UPWARD TREND IN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND BETTER HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE BY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF...WITH SNOW DISSIPATING
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TEENS
EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
SNOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COOL HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
PLAINS DRY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT
LIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHWEST FACING
PEAKS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO END FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS FOR HIGHS. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LEE OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF 40-50 KNOT GUSTS ALONG THE LOWER
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. KCOS MAY STAY SHADOWED ENOUGH BY PIKES
PEAK TO KEEP WINDS THERE LIGHT (10-15 KT)SW...WHILE GAP FLOW HAS
REACHED KPUB AS OF 22Z...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD
THIS EVENING WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30
KTS EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z. A BRIEF -SHSN
WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SITES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 222234
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
334 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 22Z. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HAVE BECOME BREEZY AND VERY MILD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH STRONG WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) DEVELOPING IN USUAL GAP
FLOW LOCATIONS (WALSENBURG/CANON CITY/PUEBLO WEST) AND ALSO ALONG
AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE (SALIDA/BUENA VISTA) FROM
MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...AS JET AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD
COLORADO...SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
00Z...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WHERE W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE. SNOW WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS...AND LOCATIONS AT AND ABOVE
PASS LEVEL WILL LIKELY GUST 40-50 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MONARCH...TENNESSEE AND FREMONT PASSES.
SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES
WILL BE LIGHTER AS W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY HERE AS
WELL...CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND
CUMBRES PASSES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD MORNING. CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT AND
WON`T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. FARTHER EAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK BY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS MILD OVER MOST LEE SLOPES AND OVER THE
PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO 25-35 KNOT NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

ON SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND 150 KNOT JET DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
AGAIN...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL -SHSN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOST ACCUMS AGAIN LOOK LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS. I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL SEE A FEW -SHSN/-SHRA
12Z-15Z SUN MORNING IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. NW WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WHILE INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY COLD/RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES SPLIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF FEATURES A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS SUPPORTS TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE
UPWARD TREND IN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND BETTER HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE BY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF...WITH SNOW DISSIPATING
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TEENS
EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
SNOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COOL HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
PLAINS DRY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT
LIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHWEST FACING
PEAKS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO END FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS FOR HIGHS. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LEE OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF 40-50 KNOT GUSTS ALONG THE LOWER
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. KCOS MAY STAY SHADOWED ENOUGH BY PIKES
PEAK TO KEEP WINDS THERE LIGHT (10-15 KT)SW...WHILE GAP FLOW HAS
REACHED KPUB AS OF 22Z...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD
THIS EVENING WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30
KTS EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z. A BRIEF -SHSN
WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SITES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221747
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1047 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH AREA
RADARS SHOWING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OR AND ID
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR COLORADO
TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.  BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL COME IN AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OROGRAPHICS FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THUS EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
FALL IN THIS REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MORE SNOW TO FOLLOW.  ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS
AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...STILL LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF GOOD QG LIFT WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL...HAZARD GRID CAPTURES THE SCENARIO WELL WITH WARNINGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
ONLY CONTRIBUTION WAS TO ADD ZONE 64 AS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
ZONE SHOULD SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MOUNTAINS WITH THE NW OROGRAPHICS
BY THE EVENTS END.

WINDS AT MTN TOP LEVEL INCREASE TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVENING AS A BRIEF MTN WAVE TRIES TO SET UP.  HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS OFF THE LOCAL 4KM WRF KEEPS STRONGER WINDS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INVERSION LOOKS A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR OPTIMAL
MTN WAVE PARAMETERS. BY 06Z...UPPER LIFT WILL START TO COME IN...AND
MTN WAVE POTENTIAL BREAKS DOWN AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES ALOFT.  AREAS
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAY BE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH
RANGE...AND SANGRES...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS...BUT FOR
NOW THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
AREAS TONIGHT...LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS
THE LEE TROF AIDES IN SPREADING WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH TIME...EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR MOST AREAS.  THIS WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE MTN AREAS SEE READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY 06Z TO 12Z.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THOUGH CREST OF THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES BY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE THE DRUMBEAT OF PERSISTENT
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
CONTDVD...AND ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL MTS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG NW WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AND ONGOING
VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME. THE THREAT OF SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO END ON
MONDAY. AS FOR TH E PLAINS...MODELS STILL SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS BUT LITTLE IN
TERMS OF PCPN. TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM
BACK UP INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE W-NW AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND BOTH DAYS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS. COLDER AIR IS LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT FOR
THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD AND COMFORTABLE
THANKSGIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.

FRIDAY...THE GFS HINTS AT THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ON
FRI...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND ISOLATED SNOW RETURNING TO THE
CENTRAL MTS. THE EC CONTINUES THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WED AND THU.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH MAX TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR THE PLAINS. CONSIDERING THIS IS THE END OF
NOVEMBER...NOT A BAD WEATHER TREND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD
OF INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF GUSTY WEST
WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE PASSES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
TODAY...THOUGH WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AREAS OF LIGHT WINDS
WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND OF PIKES PEAK AND THE WET MTNS...WHICH MAY
KEEP THE GUSTIER WINDS AWAY FROM KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THUS BOTH TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE WEST TO SW
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TODAY. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD AFTER 21Z WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED AT KCOS
AND KPUB CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. A BRIEF -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH SITES SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221747
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1047 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH AREA
RADARS SHOWING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OR AND ID
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR COLORADO
TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.  BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL COME IN AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OROGRAPHICS FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THUS EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
FALL IN THIS REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MORE SNOW TO FOLLOW.  ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS
AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...STILL LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF GOOD QG LIFT WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL...HAZARD GRID CAPTURES THE SCENARIO WELL WITH WARNINGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
ONLY CONTRIBUTION WAS TO ADD ZONE 64 AS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
ZONE SHOULD SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MOUNTAINS WITH THE NW OROGRAPHICS
BY THE EVENTS END.

WINDS AT MTN TOP LEVEL INCREASE TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVENING AS A BRIEF MTN WAVE TRIES TO SET UP.  HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS OFF THE LOCAL 4KM WRF KEEPS STRONGER WINDS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INVERSION LOOKS A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR OPTIMAL
MTN WAVE PARAMETERS. BY 06Z...UPPER LIFT WILL START TO COME IN...AND
MTN WAVE POTENTIAL BREAKS DOWN AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES ALOFT.  AREAS
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAY BE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH
RANGE...AND SANGRES...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS...BUT FOR
NOW THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
AREAS TONIGHT...LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS
THE LEE TROF AIDES IN SPREADING WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH TIME...EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR MOST AREAS.  THIS WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE MTN AREAS SEE READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY 06Z TO 12Z.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THOUGH CREST OF THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES BY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE THE DRUMBEAT OF PERSISTENT
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
CONTDVD...AND ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL MTS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG NW WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AND ONGOING
VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME. THE THREAT OF SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO END ON
MONDAY. AS FOR TH E PLAINS...MODELS STILL SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS BUT LITTLE IN
TERMS OF PCPN. TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM
BACK UP INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE W-NW AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND BOTH DAYS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS. COLDER AIR IS LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT FOR
THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD AND COMFORTABLE
THANKSGIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.

FRIDAY...THE GFS HINTS AT THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ON
FRI...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND ISOLATED SNOW RETURNING TO THE
CENTRAL MTS. THE EC CONTINUES THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WED AND THU.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH MAX TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR THE PLAINS. CONSIDERING THIS IS THE END OF
NOVEMBER...NOT A BAD WEATHER TREND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD
OF INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF GUSTY WEST
WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE PASSES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
TODAY...THOUGH WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AREAS OF LIGHT WINDS
WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND OF PIKES PEAK AND THE WET MTNS...WHICH MAY
KEEP THE GUSTIER WINDS AWAY FROM KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THUS BOTH TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE WEST TO SW
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TODAY. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD AFTER 21Z WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED AT KCOS
AND KPUB CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. A BRIEF -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH SITES SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH AREA
RADARS SHOWING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OR AND ID
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR COLORADO
TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.  BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL COME IN AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OROGRAPHICS FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THUS EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
FALL IN THIS REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MORE SNOW TO FOLLOW.  ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS
AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...STILL LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF GOOD QG LIFT WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL...HAZARD GRID CAPTURES THE SCENARIO WELL WITH WARNINGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
ONLY CONTRIBUTION WAS TO ADD ZONE 64 AS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
ZONE SHOULD SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MOUNTAINS WITH THE NW OROGRAPHICS
BY THE EVENTS END.

WINDS AT MTN TOP LEVEL INCREASE TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVENING AS A BRIEF MTN WAVE TRIES TO SET UP.  HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS OFF THE LOCAL 4KM WRF KEEPS STRONGER WINDS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INVERSION LOOKS A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR OPTIMAL
MTN WAVE PARAMETERS. BY 06Z...UPPER LIFT WILL START TO COME IN...AND
MTN WAVE POTENTIAL BREAKS DOWN AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES ALOFT.  AREAS
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAY BE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH
RANGE...AND SANGRES...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS...BUT FOR
NOW THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
AREAS TONIGHT...LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS
THE LEE TROF AIDES IN SPREADING WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH TIME...EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR MOST AREAS.  THIS WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE MTN AREAS SEE READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY 06Z TO 12Z.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THOUGH CREST OF THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES BY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE THE DRUMBEAT OF PERSISTENT
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
CONTDVD...AND ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL MTS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG NW WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AND ONGOING
VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME. THE THREAT OF SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO END ON
MONDAY. AS FOR TH E PLAINS...MODELS STILL SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS BUT LITTLE IN
TERMS OF PCPN. TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM
BACK UP INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE W-NW AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND BOTH DAYS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS. COLDER AIR IS LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT FOR
THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD AND COMFORTABLE
THANKSGIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.

FRIDAY...THE GFS HINTS AT THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ON
FRI...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND ISOLATED SNOW RETURNING TO THE
CENTRAL MTS. THE EC CONTINUES THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WED AND THU.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH MAX TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR THE PLAINS. CONSIDERING THIS IS THE END OF
NOVEMBER...NOT A BAD WEATHER TREND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS
WITH WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE...AND EVEN POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ALONG THE LOWER EAST FACING SLOPES AT TIMES.  THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE TO THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE AND THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE PASSES ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY...THOUGH WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AREAS OF
LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND OF PIKES PEAK AND THE WET
MTNS...WHICH MAY KEEP THE GUSTIER WINDS BYPASSED AROUND KCOS AND
KPUB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THUS THE TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
SEE WEST TO SW WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TODAY. SNOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE CONTDVD AFTER 21Z-00Z WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED
AT KCOS AND KPUB.  A PASSING SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW
TO PUT INTO TAFS AT THIS POINT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH AREA
RADARS SHOWING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OR AND ID
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR COLORADO
TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.  BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL COME IN AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OROGRAPHICS FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THUS EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
FALL IN THIS REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MORE SNOW TO FOLLOW.  ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS
AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...STILL LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF GOOD QG LIFT WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL...HAZARD GRID CAPTURES THE SCENARIO WELL WITH WARNINGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
ONLY CONTRIBUTION WAS TO ADD ZONE 64 AS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
ZONE SHOULD SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MOUNTAINS WITH THE NW OROGRAPHICS
BY THE EVENTS END.

WINDS AT MTN TOP LEVEL INCREASE TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVENING AS A BRIEF MTN WAVE TRIES TO SET UP.  HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS OFF THE LOCAL 4KM WRF KEEPS STRONGER WINDS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INVERSION LOOKS A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR OPTIMAL
MTN WAVE PARAMETERS. BY 06Z...UPPER LIFT WILL START TO COME IN...AND
MTN WAVE POTENTIAL BREAKS DOWN AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES ALOFT.  AREAS
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAY BE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH
RANGE...AND SANGRES...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS...BUT FOR
NOW THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
AREAS TONIGHT...LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS
THE LEE TROF AIDES IN SPREADING WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH TIME...EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR MOST AREAS.  THIS WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE MTN AREAS SEE READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY 06Z TO 12Z.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THOUGH CREST OF THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES BY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE THE DRUMBEAT OF PERSISTENT
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
CONTDVD...AND ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL MTS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG NW WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AND ONGOING
VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME. THE THREAT OF SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO END ON
MONDAY. AS FOR TH E PLAINS...MODELS STILL SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS BUT LITTLE IN
TERMS OF PCPN. TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM
BACK UP INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE W-NW AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND BOTH DAYS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS. COLDER AIR IS LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT FOR
THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD AND COMFORTABLE
THANKSGIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.

FRIDAY...THE GFS HINTS AT THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ON
FRI...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND ISOLATED SNOW RETURNING TO THE
CENTRAL MTS. THE EC CONTINUES THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WED AND THU.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH MAX TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR THE PLAINS. CONSIDERING THIS IS THE END OF
NOVEMBER...NOT A BAD WEATHER TREND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS
WITH WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE...AND EVEN POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ALONG THE LOWER EAST FACING SLOPES AT TIMES.  THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE TO THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE AND THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE PASSES ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY...THOUGH WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AREAS OF
LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND OF PIKES PEAK AND THE WET
MTNS...WHICH MAY KEEP THE GUSTIER WINDS BYPASSED AROUND KCOS AND
KPUB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THUS THE TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
SEE WEST TO SW WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TODAY. SNOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE CONTDVD AFTER 21Z-00Z WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED
AT KCOS AND KPUB.  A PASSING SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW
TO PUT INTO TAFS AT THIS POINT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 220528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1028 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.  THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW THAT WL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD WELL
TO THE SOUTH OVR SRN AZ AND NRN MEXICO...WHILE A WEAK UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS CO THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.   WESTERLY BREEZES TONIGHT NEAR THE
ERN MOUNTAINS...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS MILD ACRS THE ADJACENT
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

ON SAT A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM WL BE MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS. IT WL
BE A BIT BREEZY FROM THE S TO SW IN SOME LOCATIONS SAT
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MSTR WL INCREASE OVR THE CENTRAL CO MTNS
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS TO THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
EVENING...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SPREADING SOUTH
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED LIFT AND DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE REGION...SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
TURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION NORTHWESTERLY...AND SHOULD BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AN END OVER THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN
RANGES...BUT KEEP PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS FAVORED. AS
FAR AS WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...WENT WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. ALL TOLD...10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THIS AREA...WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE AROUND 4 TO 8
INCHES. OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...THE SHORTER DURATION AND LESS
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO 4 TO 8 INCHES.

ACROSS THE PLAINS...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AROUND 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW AS THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
WITH FRONT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION
TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE CUTS IT OFF. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LIGHT
SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY LOWER 60S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN HIGH VARIABILITY IN
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
SOLUTION.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AREAS OF BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS65 KPUB 220528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1028 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.  THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW THAT WL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD WELL
TO THE SOUTH OVR SRN AZ AND NRN MEXICO...WHILE A WEAK UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS CO THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.   WESTERLY BREEZES TONIGHT NEAR THE
ERN MOUNTAINS...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS MILD ACRS THE ADJACENT
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

ON SAT A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM WL BE MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS. IT WL
BE A BIT BREEZY FROM THE S TO SW IN SOME LOCATIONS SAT
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MSTR WL INCREASE OVR THE CENTRAL CO MTNS
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS TO THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
EVENING...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SPREADING SOUTH
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED LIFT AND DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE REGION...SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
TURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION NORTHWESTERLY...AND SHOULD BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AN END OVER THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN
RANGES...BUT KEEP PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS FAVORED. AS
FAR AS WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...WENT WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. ALL TOLD...10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THIS AREA...WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE AROUND 4 TO 8
INCHES. OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...THE SHORTER DURATION AND LESS
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO 4 TO 8 INCHES.

ACROSS THE PLAINS...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AROUND 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW AS THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
WITH FRONT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION
TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE CUTS IT OFF. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LIGHT
SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY LOWER 60S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN HIGH VARIABILITY IN
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
SOLUTION.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AREAS OF BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS65 KPUB 212215
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.  THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW THAT WL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD WELL
TO THE SOUTH OVR SRN AZ AND NRN MEXICO...WHILE A WEAK UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS CO THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.   WESTERLY BREEZES TONIGHT NEAR THE
ERN MOUNTAINS...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS MILD ACRS THE ADJACENT
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

ON SAT A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM WL BE MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS. IT WL
BE A BIT BREEZY FROM THE S TO SW IN SOME LOCATIONS SAT
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MSTR WL INCREASE OVR THE CENTRAL CO MTNS
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS TO THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
EVENING...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SPREADING SOUTH
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED LIFT AND DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE REGION...SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
TURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION NORTHWESTERLY...AND SHOULD BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AN END OVER THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN
RANGES...BUT KEEP PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS FAVORED. AS
FAR AS WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...WENT WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. ALL TOLD...10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THIS AREA...WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE AROUND 4 TO 8
INCHES. OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...THE SHORTER DURATION AND LESS
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO 4 TO 8 INCHES.

ACROSS THE PLAINS...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AROUND 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW AS THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
WITH FRONT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION
TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE CUTS IT OFF. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LIGHT
SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY LOWER 60S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN HIGH VARIABILITY IN
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
SOLUTION.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.  SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BREEZY S TO SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 212215
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.  THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW THAT WL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD WELL
TO THE SOUTH OVR SRN AZ AND NRN MEXICO...WHILE A WEAK UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS CO THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.   WESTERLY BREEZES TONIGHT NEAR THE
ERN MOUNTAINS...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS MILD ACRS THE ADJACENT
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

ON SAT A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM WL BE MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS. IT WL
BE A BIT BREEZY FROM THE S TO SW IN SOME LOCATIONS SAT
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MSTR WL INCREASE OVR THE CENTRAL CO MTNS
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS TO THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
EVENING...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SPREADING SOUTH
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED LIFT AND DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE REGION...SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
TURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION NORTHWESTERLY...AND SHOULD BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AN END OVER THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN
RANGES...BUT KEEP PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS FAVORED. AS
FAR AS WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...WENT WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. ALL TOLD...10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THIS AREA...WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE AROUND 4 TO 8
INCHES. OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...THE SHORTER DURATION AND LESS
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO 4 TO 8 INCHES.

ACROSS THE PLAINS...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AROUND 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW AS THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
WITH FRONT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION
TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE CUTS IT OFF. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LIGHT
SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY LOWER 60S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN HIGH VARIABILITY IN
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
SOLUTION.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.  SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BREEZY S TO SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 211842
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE A FEW OF THE HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

IN GENERAL...ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE.  FIRST...FAIRLY DRY
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING CO THIS MORNING...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DECREASING AS A RESULT.  MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CA
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TREK INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO BY
TONIGHT.  TRACK OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A COUPLE
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTDVD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AM
SKEPTICAL GIVEN HOW DRY IT LOOKS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT AS THE NRN
STREAM PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES ITS DIFFICULT TO
RULE THIS OUT ENTIRELY.  GRIDS THIS EVENING HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS...AND ADJUSTED TIMING A BIT AND DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE
SOME...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT EVENT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT.  H7 TEMPS ARE AROUND A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.

WINDS ACROSS THE PEAKS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z.  LEE TROF DEEPENS AND HIGH RES
WRF SPREADS SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8-
8.5KFT TOWARDS MORNING.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS AT TIMES SHOULD KEEP MINS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT IN THE
BANANA BELT REGIONS WHERE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. MEANWHILE MTN VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND COOL OFF INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE UPPER JET DRIVING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE CONTDVD
BEGINNING SAT AFTN...AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS. MUCH
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MTS FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH MON
AFTN SINCE THOSE AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WARNING
CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS. REST OF THE MTS MAY SEE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED SNOW...W-NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...SO TRAVEL OVER THE HIGHER MT
PASSES OF THE CENTRAL MTS WILL BE SKETCHY.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE E
PLAINS SUN MORNING...AND ISOLATED PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A VERY WARM DAY
ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND 40S TO 50S
ELSEWHERE...SUNDAY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON WED...TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW FOR THU. BOTH MODELS ARE AGREEING ON KEEPING
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT MILD...MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
RELATIVELY DRY. THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED POPS
FOR THU FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTRADICT THIS...MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT AND
CONFIDENCE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS LOW. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 211842
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE A FEW OF THE HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

IN GENERAL...ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE.  FIRST...FAIRLY DRY
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING CO THIS MORNING...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DECREASING AS A RESULT.  MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CA
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TREK INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO BY
TONIGHT.  TRACK OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A COUPLE
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTDVD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AM
SKEPTICAL GIVEN HOW DRY IT LOOKS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT AS THE NRN
STREAM PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES ITS DIFFICULT TO
RULE THIS OUT ENTIRELY.  GRIDS THIS EVENING HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS...AND ADJUSTED TIMING A BIT AND DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE
SOME...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT EVENT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT.  H7 TEMPS ARE AROUND A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.

WINDS ACROSS THE PEAKS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z.  LEE TROF DEEPENS AND HIGH RES
WRF SPREADS SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8-
8.5KFT TOWARDS MORNING.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS AT TIMES SHOULD KEEP MINS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT IN THE
BANANA BELT REGIONS WHERE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. MEANWHILE MTN VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND COOL OFF INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE UPPER JET DRIVING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE CONTDVD
BEGINNING SAT AFTN...AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS. MUCH
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MTS FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH MON
AFTN SINCE THOSE AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WARNING
CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS. REST OF THE MTS MAY SEE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED SNOW...W-NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...SO TRAVEL OVER THE HIGHER MT
PASSES OF THE CENTRAL MTS WILL BE SKETCHY.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE E
PLAINS SUN MORNING...AND ISOLATED PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A VERY WARM DAY
ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND 40S TO 50S
ELSEWHERE...SUNDAY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON WED...TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW FOR THU. BOTH MODELS ARE AGREEING ON KEEPING
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT MILD...MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
RELATIVELY DRY. THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED POPS
FOR THU FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTRADICT THIS...MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT AND
CONFIDENCE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS LOW. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 211714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1014 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

IN GENERAL...ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE.  FIRST...FAIRLY DRY
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING CO THIS MORNING...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DECREASING AS A RESULT.  MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CA
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TREK INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO BY
TONIGHT.  TRACK OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A COUPLE
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTDVD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AM
SKEPTICAL GIVEN HOW DRY IT LOOKS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT AS THE NRN
STREAM PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES ITS DIFFICULT TO
RULE THIS OUT ENTIRELY.  GRIDS THIS EVENING HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS...AND ADJUSTED TIMING A BIT AND DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE
SOME...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT EVENT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT.  H7 TEMPS ARE AROUND A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.

WINDS ACROSS THE PEAKS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z.  LEE TROF DEEPENS AND HIGH RES
WRF SPREADS SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8-
8.5KFT TOWARDS MORNING.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS AT TIMES SHOULD KEEP MINS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT IN THE
BANANA BELT REGIONS WHERE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. MEANWHILE MTN VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND COOL OFF INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE UPPER JET DRIVING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE CONTDVD
BEGINNING SAT AFTN...AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS. MUCH
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MTS FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH MON
AFTN SINCE THOSE AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WARNING
CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS. REST OF THE MTS MAY SEE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED SNOW...W-NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...SO TRAVEL OVER THE HIGHER MT
PASSES OF THE CENTRAL MTS WILL BE SKETCHY.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE E
PLAINS SUN MORNING...AND ISOLATED PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A VERY WARM DAY
ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND 40S TO 50S
ELSEWHERE...SUNDAY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON WED...TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW FOR THU. BOTH MODELS ARE AGREEING ON KEEPING
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT MILD...MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
RELATIVELY DRY. THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED POPS
FOR THU FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTRADICT THIS...MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT AND
CONFIDENCE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS LOW. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 211714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1014 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

IN GENERAL...ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE.  FIRST...FAIRLY DRY
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING CO THIS MORNING...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DECREASING AS A RESULT.  MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CA
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TREK INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO BY
TONIGHT.  TRACK OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A COUPLE
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTDVD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AM
SKEPTICAL GIVEN HOW DRY IT LOOKS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT AS THE NRN
STREAM PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES ITS DIFFICULT TO
RULE THIS OUT ENTIRELY.  GRIDS THIS EVENING HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS...AND ADJUSTED TIMING A BIT AND DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE
SOME...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT EVENT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT.  H7 TEMPS ARE AROUND A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.

WINDS ACROSS THE PEAKS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z.  LEE TROF DEEPENS AND HIGH RES
WRF SPREADS SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8-
8.5KFT TOWARDS MORNING.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS AT TIMES SHOULD KEEP MINS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT IN THE
BANANA BELT REGIONS WHERE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. MEANWHILE MTN VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND COOL OFF INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE UPPER JET DRIVING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE CONTDVD
BEGINNING SAT AFTN...AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS. MUCH
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MTS FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH MON
AFTN SINCE THOSE AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WARNING
CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS. REST OF THE MTS MAY SEE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED SNOW...W-NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...SO TRAVEL OVER THE HIGHER MT
PASSES OF THE CENTRAL MTS WILL BE SKETCHY.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE E
PLAINS SUN MORNING...AND ISOLATED PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A VERY WARM DAY
ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND 40S TO 50S
ELSEWHERE...SUNDAY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON WED...TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW FOR THU. BOTH MODELS ARE AGREEING ON KEEPING
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT MILD...MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
RELATIVELY DRY. THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED POPS
FOR THU FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTRADICT THIS...MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT AND
CONFIDENCE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS LOW. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 211122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

IN GENERAL...ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE.  FIRST...FAIRLY DRY
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING CO THIS MORNING...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DECREASING AS A RESULT.  MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CA
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TREK INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO BY
TONIGHT.  TRACK OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A COUPLE
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTDVD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AM
SKEPTICAL GIVEN HOW DRY IT LOOKS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT AS THE NRN
STREAM PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES ITS DIFFICULT TO
RULE THIS OUT ENTIRELY.  GRIDS THIS EVENING HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS...AND ADJUSTED TIMING A BIT AND DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE
SOME...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT EVENT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT.  H7 TEMPS ARE AROUND A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.

WINDS ACROSS THE PEAKS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z.  LEE TROF DEEPENS AND HIGH RES
WRF SPREADS SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8-
8.5KFT TOWARDS MORNING.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS AT TIMES SHOULD KEEP MINS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT IN THE
BANANA BELT REGIONS WHERE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. MEANWHILE MTN VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND COOL OFF INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE UPPER JET DRIVING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE CONTDVD
BEGINNING SAT AFTN...AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS. MUCH
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MTS FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH MON
AFTN SINCE THOSE AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WARNING
CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS. REST OF THE MTS MAY SEE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED SNOW...W-NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...SO TRAVEL OVER THE HIGHER MT
PASSES OF THE CENTRAL MTS WILL BE SKETCHY.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE E
PLAINS SUN MORNING...AND ISOLATED PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A VERY WARM DAY
ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND 40S TO 50S
ELSEWHERE...SUNDAY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON WED...TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW FOR THU. BOTH MODELS ARE AGREEING ON KEEPING
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT MILD...MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
RELATIVELY DRY. THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED POPS
FOR THU FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTRADICT THIS...MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT AND
CONFIDENCE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS LOW. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING UNDER 15 KTS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 211122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

IN GENERAL...ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE.  FIRST...FAIRLY DRY
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING CO THIS MORNING...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DECREASING AS A RESULT.  MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CA
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TREK INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO BY
TONIGHT.  TRACK OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A COUPLE
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTDVD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AM
SKEPTICAL GIVEN HOW DRY IT LOOKS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT AS THE NRN
STREAM PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES ITS DIFFICULT TO
RULE THIS OUT ENTIRELY.  GRIDS THIS EVENING HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS...AND ADJUSTED TIMING A BIT AND DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE
SOME...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT EVENT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT.  H7 TEMPS ARE AROUND A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.

WINDS ACROSS THE PEAKS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z.  LEE TROF DEEPENS AND HIGH RES
WRF SPREADS SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8-
8.5KFT TOWARDS MORNING.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS AT TIMES SHOULD KEEP MINS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT IN THE
BANANA BELT REGIONS WHERE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. MEANWHILE MTN VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND COOL OFF INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE UPPER JET DRIVING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE CONTDVD
BEGINNING SAT AFTN...AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS. MUCH
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MTS FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH MON
AFTN SINCE THOSE AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WARNING
CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS. REST OF THE MTS MAY SEE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED SNOW...W-NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...SO TRAVEL OVER THE HIGHER MT
PASSES OF THE CENTRAL MTS WILL BE SKETCHY.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE E
PLAINS SUN MORNING...AND ISOLATED PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A VERY WARM DAY
ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND 40S TO 50S
ELSEWHERE...SUNDAY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON WED...TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW FOR THU. BOTH MODELS ARE AGREEING ON KEEPING
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT MILD...MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
RELATIVELY DRY. THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED POPS
FOR THU FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTRADICT THIS...MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT AND
CONFIDENCE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS LOW. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING UNDER 15 KTS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 210545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS CO TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE OVR
PIKES PEAK...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WL BE DRY.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE AS WELL.

ON FRI THE SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AN UPR
LOW CIGS INTO SWRN AZ.  THIS WL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA WITH
GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE
AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

...SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
...THANKSGIVING FORECAST STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NRN MEXICO...AND
WILL BE MUCH TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT OUR AREA IN A SIGNIFICANT WAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. MAIN
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP US RELATIVELY MILD FRI
NITE...AND SET US UP FOR A PRETTY NICE SATURDAY AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP BEHIND THE PARTING TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM. COULD SEE TEMPS GET TO 60 DEGREES OR HIGHER OVER THE PLAINS
FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE...WILL START TO SEE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE CONTDVD. THIS WILL TAKE SHAPE AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING IN NW FLOW BEHIND A DEEPER TROUGH THAT WILL BUILD
EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A CONTINUATION OF THE STRONGLY
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING A LOT OF THUS FAR THIS
FALL. FIRST WAVE WILL HIT SAT NIGHT...THEN A SECOND LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP. WILL PROBABLY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
SNOW OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE WITH THIS EVENT...BUT THE BULK OF THE
SNOW WILL FALL AFTER SATURDAY...AND SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES. SO...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT
ANTICIPATE THAT WINTER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO FOR THE DIVIDE.

OVER THE PLAINS...IT STAYS MAINLY DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THIS COULD BRING
A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE PLAINS. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED
LOW POPS FOR THE ERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MOST LIKELY SPOTS
FOR ANY ACCUMS LOOK TO BE OVER THE PALMER DVD-PIKES PEAK
REGION...AND ALSO ALONG THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO. BUT
ANY ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
BACK TO THE 40S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 30S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AT LEAST BRIEFLY OVER THE CONTDVD ON TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH OUT EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AND RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY BECOME
APPARENT. THE GFS BUILDS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH
WOULD GIVE US SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF BRING A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WX AND THE SHOT OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. ECMF GENERALLY HAS THE BETTER H5 TRACK RECORD SO AM
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER SOLUTION. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO MATCH UP WITH THE EC SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST EC AND GEM HAVE BOTH BACKED OFF A BIT ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
ENDS UP. IT IS JUST A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODEL WILL
RULE OUT...BUT FOR NOW BORDERLINE POPS...ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR THE PLAINS. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THURSDAY
IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 210545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS CO TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE OVR
PIKES PEAK...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WL BE DRY.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE AS WELL.

ON FRI THE SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AN UPR
LOW CIGS INTO SWRN AZ.  THIS WL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA WITH
GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE
AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

...SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
...THANKSGIVING FORECAST STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NRN MEXICO...AND
WILL BE MUCH TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT OUR AREA IN A SIGNIFICANT WAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. MAIN
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP US RELATIVELY MILD FRI
NITE...AND SET US UP FOR A PRETTY NICE SATURDAY AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP BEHIND THE PARTING TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM. COULD SEE TEMPS GET TO 60 DEGREES OR HIGHER OVER THE PLAINS
FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE...WILL START TO SEE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE CONTDVD. THIS WILL TAKE SHAPE AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING IN NW FLOW BEHIND A DEEPER TROUGH THAT WILL BUILD
EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A CONTINUATION OF THE STRONGLY
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING A LOT OF THUS FAR THIS
FALL. FIRST WAVE WILL HIT SAT NIGHT...THEN A SECOND LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP. WILL PROBABLY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
SNOW OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE WITH THIS EVENT...BUT THE BULK OF THE
SNOW WILL FALL AFTER SATURDAY...AND SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES. SO...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT
ANTICIPATE THAT WINTER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO FOR THE DIVIDE.

OVER THE PLAINS...IT STAYS MAINLY DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THIS COULD BRING
A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE PLAINS. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED
LOW POPS FOR THE ERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MOST LIKELY SPOTS
FOR ANY ACCUMS LOOK TO BE OVER THE PALMER DVD-PIKES PEAK
REGION...AND ALSO ALONG THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO. BUT
ANY ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
BACK TO THE 40S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 30S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AT LEAST BRIEFLY OVER THE CONTDVD ON TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH OUT EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AND RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY BECOME
APPARENT. THE GFS BUILDS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH
WOULD GIVE US SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF BRING A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WX AND THE SHOT OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. ECMF GENERALLY HAS THE BETTER H5 TRACK RECORD SO AM
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER SOLUTION. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO MATCH UP WITH THE EC SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST EC AND GEM HAVE BOTH BACKED OFF A BIT ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
ENDS UP. IT IS JUST A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODEL WILL
RULE OUT...BUT FOR NOW BORDERLINE POPS...ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR THE PLAINS. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THURSDAY
IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 202145
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
245 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS CO TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE OVR
PIKES PEAK...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WL BE DRY.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE AS WELL.

ON FRI THE SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AN UPR
LOW CIGS INTO SWRN AZ.  THIS WL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA WITH
GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE
AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

...SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
...THANKSGIVING FORECAST STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NRN MEXICO...AND
WILL BE MUCH TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT OUR AREA IN A SIGNIFICANT WAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. MAIN
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP US RELATIVELY MILD FRI
NITE...AND SET US UP FOR A PRETTY NICE SATURDAY AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP BEHIND THE PARTING TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM. COULD SEE TEMPS GET TO 60 DEGREES OR HIGHER OVER THE PLAINS
FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE...WILL START TO SEE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE CONTDVD. THIS WILL TAKE SHAPE AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING IN NW FLOW BEHIND A DEEPER TROUGH THAT WILL BUILD
EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A CONTINUATION OF THE STRONGLY
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING A LOT OF THUS FAR THIS
FALL. FIRST WAVE WILL HIT SAT NIGHT...THEN A SECOND LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP. WILL PROBABLY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
SNOW OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE WITH THIS EVENT...BUT THE BULK OF THE
SNOW WILL FALL AFTER SATURDAY...AND SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES. SO...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT
ANTICIPATE THAT WINTER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO FOR THE DIVIDE.

OVER THE PLAINS...IT STAYS MAINLY DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THIS COULD BRING
A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE PLAINS. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED
LOW POPS FOR THE ERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MOST LIKELY SPOTS
FOR ANY ACCUMS LOOK TO BE OVER THE PALMER DVD-PIKES PEAK
REGION...AND ALSO ALONG THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO. BUT
ANY ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
BACK TO THE 40S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 30S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AT LEAST BRIEFLY OVER THE CONTDVD ON TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH OUT EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AND RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY BECOME
APPARENT. THE GFS BUILDS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH
WOULD GIVE US SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF BRING A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WX AND THE SHOT OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. ECMF GENERALLY HAS THE BETTER H5 TRACK RECORD SO AM
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER SOLUTION. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO MATCH UP WITH THE EC SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST EC AND GEM HAVE BOTH BACKED OFF A BIT ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
ENDS UP. IT IS JUST A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODEL WILL
RULE OUT...BUT FOR NOW BORDERLINE POPS...ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR THE PLAINS. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THURSDAY
IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY
JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 202145
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
245 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS CO TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE OVR
PIKES PEAK...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WL BE DRY.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE AS WELL.

ON FRI THE SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AN UPR
LOW CIGS INTO SWRN AZ.  THIS WL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA WITH
GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE
AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

...SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
...THANKSGIVING FORECAST STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NRN MEXICO...AND
WILL BE MUCH TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT OUR AREA IN A SIGNIFICANT WAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. MAIN
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP US RELATIVELY MILD FRI
NITE...AND SET US UP FOR A PRETTY NICE SATURDAY AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP BEHIND THE PARTING TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM. COULD SEE TEMPS GET TO 60 DEGREES OR HIGHER OVER THE PLAINS
FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE...WILL START TO SEE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE CONTDVD. THIS WILL TAKE SHAPE AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING IN NW FLOW BEHIND A DEEPER TROUGH THAT WILL BUILD
EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A CONTINUATION OF THE STRONGLY
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING A LOT OF THUS FAR THIS
FALL. FIRST WAVE WILL HIT SAT NIGHT...THEN A SECOND LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP. WILL PROBABLY SEE WARNING CRITERIA
SNOW OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE WITH THIS EVENT...BUT THE BULK OF THE
SNOW WILL FALL AFTER SATURDAY...AND SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES. SO...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT
ANTICIPATE THAT WINTER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO FOR THE DIVIDE.

OVER THE PLAINS...IT STAYS MAINLY DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THIS COULD BRING
A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE PLAINS. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED
LOW POPS FOR THE ERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MOST LIKELY SPOTS
FOR ANY ACCUMS LOOK TO BE OVER THE PALMER DVD-PIKES PEAK
REGION...AND ALSO ALONG THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO. BUT
ANY ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
BACK TO THE 40S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 30S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AT LEAST BRIEFLY OVER THE CONTDVD ON TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH OUT EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AND RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY BECOME
APPARENT. THE GFS BUILDS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH
WOULD GIVE US SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF BRING A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WX AND THE SHOT OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. ECMF GENERALLY HAS THE BETTER H5 TRACK RECORD SO AM
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER SOLUTION. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO MATCH UP WITH THE EC SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST EC AND GEM HAVE BOTH BACKED OFF A BIT ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
ENDS UP. IT IS JUST A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODEL WILL
RULE OUT...BUT FOR NOW BORDERLINE POPS...ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR THE PLAINS. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THURSDAY
IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY
JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28





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