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000
FXUS65 KPUB 211004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENTLY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMTN WEST. A
COUPLE OF WEAK/ISOLD SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE WEST SLOPE OF CO.
OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...T/TD SPREADS WERE QUITE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASING ON THE CONTDVD.

TODAY...

MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG FORMATION. AS OF 3 AM...NO FOG
WAS NOTED OVER THE E PLAINS OF CO...ALTHOUGH IT WAS DEVELOPING OVER
PARTS OF W KS. I EXPECT THIS FOG TO DEVELOP INTO THE STATE SHORTLY
AND MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. I PLAN TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY HILITES...BUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
FOR PARTS OF THE E PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

LATER THIS MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHERLY LLVL WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM EADS TO LAS
ANIMAS TO TRINIDAD. THESE GUSTY SSW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TIME PD.

AS FOR PRECIP...I EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY THROUGH
NOONTIME ACROSS THE REGION. I CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SW MTNS...BUT THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE MTNS TODAY WILL BE
LIQUID...WITH ANY ACCUM SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 10KFT. SOME THUNDER IS
LIKELY IN THE MTNS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD. LOCAL
CONVECTIVE SNOWBURST ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT...

EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE C MTNS THIS
EVENING. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...WE WILL SEE SNOWLVLS
DECREASE WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF WIDESPREAD SNOW LIKELY OVER THE MTNS
ABOVE 9500 FEET. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS.

OVER THE PLAINS...THE COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE PALMER DVD SEEING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. I DO NOT EXPECT THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE ANY PRECIP ANYTIME TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH INTO THIS WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
TURNING EASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY...COMING TO AN
END WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL
TIMING...AS THE NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND PRINTS
OUT BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 9500 FEET WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ON AREA PEAKS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
EAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH ARE NEARING RECORD HIGHS EACH
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST...AND LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LATEST GFS TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTH
WITH LIMITED IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM...BRINGING IT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE MAY SEE SOME STRATUS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. T/TD SPREADS WERE DECREASING AND GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG FORMATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR LOW CIGS AFFECTING TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
A KCOS..KPUB AND KALS. KALS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PASSING
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA LATER TODAY/EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD
OCCUR AT KCOS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 22/06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 211004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENTLY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMTN WEST. A
COUPLE OF WEAK/ISOLD SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE WEST SLOPE OF CO.
OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...T/TD SPREADS WERE QUITE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASING ON THE CONTDVD.

TODAY...

MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG FORMATION. AS OF 3 AM...NO FOG
WAS NOTED OVER THE E PLAINS OF CO...ALTHOUGH IT WAS DEVELOPING OVER
PARTS OF W KS. I EXPECT THIS FOG TO DEVELOP INTO THE STATE SHORTLY
AND MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. I PLAN TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY HILITES...BUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
FOR PARTS OF THE E PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

LATER THIS MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHERLY LLVL WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM EADS TO LAS
ANIMAS TO TRINIDAD. THESE GUSTY SSW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TIME PD.

AS FOR PRECIP...I EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY THROUGH
NOONTIME ACROSS THE REGION. I CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SW MTNS...BUT THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE MTNS TODAY WILL BE
LIQUID...WITH ANY ACCUM SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 10KFT. SOME THUNDER IS
LIKELY IN THE MTNS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD. LOCAL
CONVECTIVE SNOWBURST ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT...

EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE C MTNS THIS
EVENING. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...WE WILL SEE SNOWLVLS
DECREASE WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF WIDESPREAD SNOW LIKELY OVER THE MTNS
ABOVE 9500 FEET. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS.

OVER THE PLAINS...THE COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE PALMER DVD SEEING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. I DO NOT EXPECT THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE ANY PRECIP ANYTIME TONIGHT. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH INTO THIS WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
TURNING EASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY...COMING TO AN
END WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL
TIMING...AS THE NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND PRINTS
OUT BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 9500 FEET WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ON AREA PEAKS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
EAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH ARE NEARING RECORD HIGHS EACH
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST...AND LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LATEST GFS TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTH
WITH LIMITED IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM...BRINGING IT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE MAY SEE SOME STRATUS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. T/TD SPREADS WERE DECREASING AND GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG FORMATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR LOW CIGS AFFECTING TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
A KCOS..KPUB AND KALS. KALS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PASSING
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA LATER TODAY/EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD
OCCUR AT KCOS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 22/06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 210526
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ADDED SOME FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME LOW STRATUS COULD MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF BOTH SITES
TOWARD MORNING. KALS SHOULD ALSO GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH THE BUFKIT SOUNDING IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME PERIOD...WL NOT
INCLUDE A LOW CIG IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 210526
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ADDED SOME FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME LOW STRATUS COULD MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF BOTH SITES
TOWARD MORNING. KALS SHOULD ALSO GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH THE BUFKIT SOUNDING IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME PERIOD...WL NOT
INCLUDE A LOW CIG IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 210327
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
927 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDENSDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS AND FOG TO PARTS OF THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE HARD TO TELL IF IT WILL BE FOG...LOW CLOUDS OR BOTH.
BUT...IN ANY EVENT...COULD PROVE TO LIMIT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR OR EVEN LIFR JUST DEPENDING ON HOW DENSE IT COMES IN.
DON`T EXPECT IT WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE KPUB OR KCOS TAF
SITES...BUT IT MIGHT HAVE A SHOT.  WON`T PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR LATER.

ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA.  THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF MVFR/IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPOTTY SUCH CONDITIONS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES BY 00Z.  THE PLAINS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z.  IN GENERAL...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG IMPACTING THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES 06Z-15Z.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE KALS TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.  ALL PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO BE ACKNOWLEDGED IN CURRENT TAF FORECASTS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 210327
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
927 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDENSDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS AND FOG TO PARTS OF THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE HARD TO TELL IF IT WILL BE FOG...LOW CLOUDS OR BOTH.
BUT...IN ANY EVENT...COULD PROVE TO LIMIT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR OR EVEN LIFR JUST DEPENDING ON HOW DENSE IT COMES IN.
DON`T EXPECT IT WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE KPUB OR KCOS TAF
SITES...BUT IT MIGHT HAVE A SHOT.  WON`T PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR LATER.

ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA.  THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF MVFR/IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPOTTY SUCH CONDITIONS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES BY 00Z.  THE PLAINS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z.  IN GENERAL...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG IMPACTING THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES 06Z-15Z.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE KALS TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.  ALL PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO BE ACKNOWLEDGED IN CURRENT TAF FORECASTS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 202110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDENSDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS AND FOG TO PARTS OF THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE HARD TO TELL IF IT WILL BE FOG...LOW CLOUDS OR BOTH.
BUT...IN ANY EVENT...COULD PROVE TO LIMIT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR OR EVEN LIFR JUST DEPENDING ON HOW DENSE IT COMES IN.
DON`T EXPECT IT WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE KPUB OR KCOS TAF
SITES...BUT IT MIGHT HAVE A SHOT.  WON`T PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR LATER.

ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA.  THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF MVFR/IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPOTTY SUCH CONDITIONS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES BY 00Z.  THE PLAINS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z.  IN GENERAL...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG IMPACTING THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES 06Z-15Z.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE KALS TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.  ALL PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO BE ACKNOWLEDGED IN CURRENT TAF FORECASTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 202110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDENSDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS AND FOG TO PARTS OF THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE HARD TO TELL IF IT WILL BE FOG...LOW CLOUDS OR BOTH.
BUT...IN ANY EVENT...COULD PROVE TO LIMIT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR OR EVEN LIFR JUST DEPENDING ON HOW DENSE IT COMES IN.
DON`T EXPECT IT WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE KPUB OR KCOS TAF
SITES...BUT IT MIGHT HAVE A SHOT.  WON`T PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR LATER.

ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA.  THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF MVFR/IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPOTTY SUCH CONDITIONS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES BY 00Z.  THE PLAINS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z.  IN GENERAL...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG IMPACTING THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES 06Z-15Z.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE KALS TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.  ALL PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO BE ACKNOWLEDGED IN CURRENT TAF FORECASTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 201738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

REINITIALIZED SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CALM FALL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND EVENTUALLY EJECT TO THE NE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY`S VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SW MTS AND CONTDVD AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST GETS A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS NR THE KS AND OK BORDER...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES NWD
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL KEEP POPS SILENT THERE AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. OTHERWISE...THE QUIET WX CONTINUES. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A QUIET WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE CONTDVD REGION...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REST OF
TE MTNS/VALLEYS AND ONLY AN ISOLD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
UNTIL LATE WEEK...AND THEN WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE MAX TEMPS WHICH
CAME WITH THE CRH EXTENDED PROCEDURE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND MAY BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE AND BUMPED THEM UP A BIT (AND I WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE IN LATER
FCST...WE MAY SEE TEMPS 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND).
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME FIRE WX ISSUES ON THE PLAINS DUE TO CURED
GRASSES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
18Z-03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. BE
ADVISED THAT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 201738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

REINITIALIZED SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CALM FALL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND EVENTUALLY EJECT TO THE NE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY`S VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SW MTS AND CONTDVD AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST GETS A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS NR THE KS AND OK BORDER...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES NWD
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL KEEP POPS SILENT THERE AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. OTHERWISE...THE QUIET WX CONTINUES. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A QUIET WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE CONTDVD REGION...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REST OF
TE MTNS/VALLEYS AND ONLY AN ISOLD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
UNTIL LATE WEEK...AND THEN WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE MAX TEMPS WHICH
CAME WITH THE CRH EXTENDED PROCEDURE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND MAY BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE AND BUMPED THEM UP A BIT (AND I WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE IN LATER
FCST...WE MAY SEE TEMPS 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND).
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME FIRE WX ISSUES ON THE PLAINS DUE TO CURED
GRASSES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
18Z-03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. BE
ADVISED THAT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 200902
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
302 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CALM FALL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND EVENTUALLY EJECT TO THE NE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY`S VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SW MTS AND CONTDVD AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST GETS A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS NR THE KS AND OK BORDER...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES NWD
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL KEEP POPS SILENT THERE AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. OTHERWISE...THE QUIET WX CONTINUES. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A QUIET WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE CONTDVD REGION...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REST OF
TE MTNS/VALLEYS AND ONLY AN ISOLD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
UNTIL LATE WEEK...AND THEN WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE MAX TEMPS WHICH
CAME WITH THE CRH EXTENDED PROCEDURE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND MAY BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE AND BUMPED THEM UP A BIT (AND I WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE IN LATER
FCST...WE MAY SEE TEMPS 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND).
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME FIRE WX ISSUES ON THE PLAINS DUE TO CURED
GRASSES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE OVER THE MTS. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF KIOWA...PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE LOW CIGS WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL
DISSIPATE TUE MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 200902
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
302 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CALM FALL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND EVENTUALLY EJECT TO THE NE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY`S VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SW MTS AND CONTDVD AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST GETS A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS NR THE KS AND OK BORDER...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES NWD
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL KEEP POPS SILENT THERE AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. OTHERWISE...THE QUIET WX CONTINUES. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A QUIET WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE CONTDVD REGION...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REST OF
TE MTNS/VALLEYS AND ONLY AN ISOLD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
UNTIL LATE WEEK...AND THEN WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE MAX TEMPS WHICH
CAME WITH THE CRH EXTENDED PROCEDURE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND MAY BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE AND BUMPED THEM UP A BIT (AND I WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE IN LATER
FCST...WE MAY SEE TEMPS 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND).
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME FIRE WX ISSUES ON THE PLAINS DUE TO CURED
GRASSES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE OVER THE MTS. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF KIOWA...PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE LOW CIGS WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL
DISSIPATE TUE MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 200503
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1103 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED VARIABLE CLOUDS IN COMBINATION
ISOLATED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ABOVE SEASONAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES
DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME DATA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH UPPER ENERGY WILL
BE ROTATING ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

FOR MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW NEARS FAR WEST TEXAS.  IN ADDITION...GRADIENT WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WELL-BEHAVED THROUGH MONDAY.

ABOVE SEASONAL MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO WATCH...

FIRST SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE SYSTEM
RACES EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES
THE PLAINS QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST PRECIPIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL FALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH CONSIDERABLY
LESS PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN LESS
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PLAINS. THE SYSTEM IS JUST TOO
PROGRESSIVE...COMING ACROSS TOO FAST...TO BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE
PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT. THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD SEE SOME
WETTING RAINS AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 10000 OR 11000
FEET...BUT FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THERE MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
ON THE PLAINS ALONG AND NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION GETTING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINE ABOUT THAT TIME. BUT...NOT ALL OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS...AND MOST OF THE ORGANIZATION SEEMS TO TAKE
PLACE IN KANSAS...SO NOT TOO SOLD ON THIS IDEA.

AFTER THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...WARM HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...DRY FALL WEATHER...ADDING BREEZY CHINOOK
WINDS TO EQUATION BY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A
LITTLE LESS CLEAR. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE INTO
THE STATE ON THIS DAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SOME STIFF
WESTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS NO
SIGN OF THIS CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY...HOLDING ON FIRMLY TO A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. TOO FAR OUT TO
CALL AT THIS POINT. HAVE TO FOLLOW UP ON THIS LATER. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE 3 MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MTS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 200503
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1103 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED VARIABLE CLOUDS IN COMBINATION
ISOLATED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ABOVE SEASONAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES
DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME DATA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH UPPER ENERGY WILL
BE ROTATING ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

FOR MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW NEARS FAR WEST TEXAS.  IN ADDITION...GRADIENT WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WELL-BEHAVED THROUGH MONDAY.

ABOVE SEASONAL MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO WATCH...

FIRST SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE SYSTEM
RACES EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES
THE PLAINS QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST PRECIPIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL FALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH CONSIDERABLY
LESS PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN LESS
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PLAINS. THE SYSTEM IS JUST TOO
PROGRESSIVE...COMING ACROSS TOO FAST...TO BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE
PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT. THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD SEE SOME
WETTING RAINS AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 10000 OR 11000
FEET...BUT FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THERE MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
ON THE PLAINS ALONG AND NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION GETTING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINE ABOUT THAT TIME. BUT...NOT ALL OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS...AND MOST OF THE ORGANIZATION SEEMS TO TAKE
PLACE IN KANSAS...SO NOT TOO SOLD ON THIS IDEA.

AFTER THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...WARM HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...DRY FALL WEATHER...ADDING BREEZY CHINOOK
WINDS TO EQUATION BY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A
LITTLE LESS CLEAR. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE INTO
THE STATE ON THIS DAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SOME STIFF
WESTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS NO
SIGN OF THIS CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY...HOLDING ON FIRMLY TO A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. TOO FAR OUT TO
CALL AT THIS POINT. HAVE TO FOLLOW UP ON THIS LATER. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE 3 MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MTS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 192138
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
338 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED VARIABLE CLOUDS IN COMBINATION
ISOLATED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ABOVE SEASONAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES
DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME DATA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH UPPER ENERGY WILL
BE ROTATING ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

FOR MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW NEARS FAR WEST TEXAS.  IN ADDITION...GRADIENT WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WELL-BEHAVED THROUGH MONDAY.

ABOVE SEASONAL MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO WATCH...

FIRST SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE SYSTEM
RACES EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES
THE PLAINS QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST PRECIPIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL FALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH CONSIDERABLY
LESS PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN LESS
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PLAINS. THE SYSTEM IS JUST TOO
PROGRESSIVE...COMING ACROSS TOO FAST...TO BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE
PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT. THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD SEE SOME
WETTING RAINS AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 10000 OR 11000
FEET...BUT FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THERE MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
ON THE PLAINS ALONG AND NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION GETTING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINE ABOUT THAT TIME. BUT...NOT ALL OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS...AND MOST OF THE ORGANIZATION SEEMS TO TAKE
PLACE IN KANSAS...SO NOT TOO SOLD ON THIS IDEA.

AFTER THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...WARM HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...DRY FALL WEATHER...ADDING BREEZY CHINOOK
WINDS TO EQUATION BY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A
LITTLE LESS CLEAR. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE INTO
THE STATE ON THIS DAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SOME STIFF
WESTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS NO
SIGN OF THIS CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY...HOLDING ON FIRMLY TO A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. TOO FAR OUT TO
CALL AT THIS POINT. HAVE TO FOLLOW UP ON THIS LATER. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS..KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED PRIMARILY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE KALS TAF SITE INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 191714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WARM FALL WEATHER CONTINUES...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ALONG THE OLD MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN AND WRN CO...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SHOULD CHANGE BY MID MORNING THRU
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVES NWD ACROSS OUR CWA
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAY TIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
TRAILING COOL FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
BIT OF A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN MTS. SO...MT AREAS
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...ALONG
WITH A STORM OR TWO AS CAPE LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
BUT THE ERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LARGELY DRY. WITH H7 TEMPS
RISING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE ROCKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE
TEMPS WERE YESTERDAY OVER THE PLAINS. MTS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO YESTERDAY...BUT LOCALLY A BIT COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WEAK UPLIFT TONIGHT WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER SUNSET. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH BEST UPPER FORCING WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE OLD UPPER LOW IN NRN MEXICO...SUSPECT PRECIP
COVERAGE TO STAY RATHER SPARSE AND STORM INTENSITY TO REMAIN WEAK
ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS MON LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
WINDS TO MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
TUES...THEN INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD THEN SEE A CHANCE OF
PRECIP LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. LIFT AND
INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR TSRA TUE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA MOST AREAS WED. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE TIMBER-LINE AS
BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD MOST LOCATIONS BOTH MON
AND TUE...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLING WED/THU AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS STRONGLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A RETURN OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE FROM
FRI INTO SUN. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD MOST LOCATIONS FRI/SAT...BUT
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN WARMER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS 700 MB
TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10C ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS..KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE KALS TAF SITE TODAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 191714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WARM FALL WEATHER CONTINUES...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ALONG THE OLD MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN AND WRN CO...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SHOULD CHANGE BY MID MORNING THRU
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVES NWD ACROSS OUR CWA
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAY TIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
TRAILING COOL FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
BIT OF A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN MTS. SO...MT AREAS
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...ALONG
WITH A STORM OR TWO AS CAPE LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
BUT THE ERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LARGELY DRY. WITH H7 TEMPS
RISING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE ROCKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE
TEMPS WERE YESTERDAY OVER THE PLAINS. MTS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO YESTERDAY...BUT LOCALLY A BIT COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WEAK UPLIFT TONIGHT WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER SUNSET. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH BEST UPPER FORCING WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE OLD UPPER LOW IN NRN MEXICO...SUSPECT PRECIP
COVERAGE TO STAY RATHER SPARSE AND STORM INTENSITY TO REMAIN WEAK
ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS MON LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
WINDS TO MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
TUES...THEN INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD THEN SEE A CHANCE OF
PRECIP LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. LIFT AND
INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR TSRA TUE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA MOST AREAS WED. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE TIMBER-LINE AS
BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD MOST LOCATIONS BOTH MON
AND TUE...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLING WED/THU AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS STRONGLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A RETURN OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE FROM
FRI INTO SUN. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD MOST LOCATIONS FRI/SAT...BUT
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN WARMER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS 700 MB
TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10C ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS..KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE KALS TAF SITE TODAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 190940
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
340 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WARM FALL WEATHER CONTINUES...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ALONG THE OLD MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN AND WRN CO...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SHOULD CHANGE BY MID MORNING THRU
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVES NWD ACROSS OUR CWA
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAY TIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
TRAILING COOL FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
BIT OF A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN MTS. SO...MT AREAS
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...ALONG
WITH A STORM OR TWO AS CAPE LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
BUT THE ERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LARGELY DRY. WITH H7 TEMPS
RISING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE ROCKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE
TEMPS WERE YESTERDAY OVER THE PLAINS. MTS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO YESTERDAY...BUT LOCALLY A BIT COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WEAK UPLIFT TONIGHT WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER SUNSET. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH BEST UPPER FORCING WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE OLD UPPER LOW IN NRN MEXICO...SUSPECT PRECIP
COVERAGE TO STAY RATHER SPARSE AND STORM INTENSITY TO REMAIN WEAK
ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS MON LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
WINDS TO MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
TUES...THEN INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD THEN SEE A CHANCE OF
PRECIP LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. LIFT AND
INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR TSRA TUE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA MOST AREAS WED. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE TIMBER-LINE AS
BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD MOST LOCATIONS BOTH MON
AND TUE...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLING WED/THU AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS STRONGLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A RETURN OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE FROM
FRI INTO SUN. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD MOST LOCATIONS FRI/SAT...BUT
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN WARMER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS 700 MB
TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10C ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR EVEN TS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF...ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 190940
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
340 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WARM FALL WEATHER CONTINUES...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ALONG THE OLD MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN AND WRN CO...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SHOULD CHANGE BY MID MORNING THRU
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVES NWD ACROSS OUR CWA
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAY TIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
TRAILING COOL FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
BIT OF A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN MTS. SO...MT AREAS
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...ALONG
WITH A STORM OR TWO AS CAPE LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
BUT THE ERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LARGELY DRY. WITH H7 TEMPS
RISING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE ROCKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE
TEMPS WERE YESTERDAY OVER THE PLAINS. MTS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO YESTERDAY...BUT LOCALLY A BIT COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WEAK UPLIFT TONIGHT WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER SUNSET. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH BEST UPPER FORCING WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE OLD UPPER LOW IN NRN MEXICO...SUSPECT PRECIP
COVERAGE TO STAY RATHER SPARSE AND STORM INTENSITY TO REMAIN WEAK
ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS MON LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
WINDS TO MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
TUES...THEN INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD THEN SEE A CHANCE OF
PRECIP LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. LIFT AND
INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR TSRA TUE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA MOST AREAS WED. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE TIMBER-LINE AS
BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD MOST LOCATIONS BOTH MON
AND TUE...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLING WED/THU AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS STRONGLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A RETURN OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE FROM
FRI INTO SUN. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD MOST LOCATIONS FRI/SAT...BUT
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN WARMER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS 700 MB
TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10C ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR EVEN TS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF...ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 190506
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  AS EXPECTED...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS.

THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL A BIT MORE
EXPANSION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  BROADER SCALE RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO
THAT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THROUGH.  AGAIN...NOT
AN OVERLY MOIST OR POWERFUL SYSTEM...SO MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SOME AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL ACT TO SPIN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AND A LIMITED ABOUT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS.  SO...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT
LOSE ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY EVEN HANG ON TO
A SHOWER OR TWO.  THEN...ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPSWING IN
ACTIVITY AGAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP AND INSTABILITY DOES ITS
THING. COULD BE JUST A BIT MORE ACTIVITY TOMORROW THAN TODAY AS THE
MOISTURE LOOKS JUST A TAD BIT BETTER.  HOWEVER...MOST ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NOT SO MUCH OVER THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THEN...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY
INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.

CLOSED UPPER LOW IS TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND IS PROJECTED TO BE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY 12Z
MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS THEN PROJECTED TO BE MOVING INTO WESTERN
UTAH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NEBRASKA BY 06Z
THURSDAY.

THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
LATER WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY CENTERED
ALONG A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO FAR WESTERN WYOMING LINE AT 12Z
THURSDAY SHIFTS TO A SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AXIS BY 00Z SUNDAY.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BUT WILL NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 190506
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  AS EXPECTED...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS.

THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL A BIT MORE
EXPANSION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  BROADER SCALE RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO
THAT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THROUGH.  AGAIN...NOT
AN OVERLY MOIST OR POWERFUL SYSTEM...SO MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SOME AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL ACT TO SPIN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AND A LIMITED ABOUT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS.  SO...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT
LOSE ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY EVEN HANG ON TO
A SHOWER OR TWO.  THEN...ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPSWING IN
ACTIVITY AGAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP AND INSTABILITY DOES ITS
THING. COULD BE JUST A BIT MORE ACTIVITY TOMORROW THAN TODAY AS THE
MOISTURE LOOKS JUST A TAD BIT BETTER.  HOWEVER...MOST ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NOT SO MUCH OVER THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THEN...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY
INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.

CLOSED UPPER LOW IS TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND IS PROJECTED TO BE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY 12Z
MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS THEN PROJECTED TO BE MOVING INTO WESTERN
UTAH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NEBRASKA BY 06Z
THURSDAY.

THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
LATER WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY CENTERED
ALONG A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO FAR WESTERN WYOMING LINE AT 12Z
THURSDAY SHIFTS TO A SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AXIS BY 00Z SUNDAY.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BUT WILL NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 182141
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  AS EXPECTED...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS.

THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL A BIT MORE
EXPANSION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  BROADER SCALE RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO
THAT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THROUGH.  AGAIN...NOT
AN OVERLY MOIST OR POWERFUL SYSTEM...SO MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SOME AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL ACT TO SPIN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AND A LIMITED ABOUT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS.  SO...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT
LOSE ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY EVEN HANG ON TO
A SHOWER OR TWO.  THEN...ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPSWING IN
ACTIVITY AGAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP AND INSTABILITY DOES ITS
THING. COULD BE JUST A BIT MORE ACTIVITY TOMORROW THAN TODAY AS THE
MOISTURE LOOKS JUST A TAD BIT BETTER.  HOWEVER...MOST ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NOT SO MUCH OVER THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THEN...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY
INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.

CLOSED UPPER LOW IS TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND IS PROJECTED TO BE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY 12Z
MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS THEN PROJECTED TO BE MOVING INTO WESTERN
UTAH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NEBRASKA BY 06Z
THURSDAY.

THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
LATER WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY CENTERED
ALONG A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO FAR WESTERN WYOMING LINE AT 12Z
THURSDAY SHIFTS TO A SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AXIS BY 00Z SUNDAY.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LIMITED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLIGHT
AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.  MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. LOW LEVELS PRETTY DRY. SO...MAIN IMPACT OF MOISTURE WILL BE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONLY VERY SPOTTY ACTIVITY
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
ENCOUNTERED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 182141
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  AS EXPECTED...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS.

THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL A BIT MORE
EXPANSION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  BROADER SCALE RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO
THAT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THROUGH.  AGAIN...NOT
AN OVERLY MOIST OR POWERFUL SYSTEM...SO MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SOME AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL ACT TO SPIN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AND A LIMITED ABOUT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS.  SO...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT
LOSE ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY EVEN HANG ON TO
A SHOWER OR TWO.  THEN...ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPSWING IN
ACTIVITY AGAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP AND INSTABILITY DOES ITS
THING. COULD BE JUST A BIT MORE ACTIVITY TOMORROW THAN TODAY AS THE
MOISTURE LOOKS JUST A TAD BIT BETTER.  HOWEVER...MOST ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NOT SO MUCH OVER THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THEN...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY
INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.

CLOSED UPPER LOW IS TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND IS PROJECTED TO BE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY 12Z
MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS THEN PROJECTED TO BE MOVING INTO WESTERN
UTAH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NEBRASKA BY 06Z
THURSDAY.

THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
LATER WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY CENTERED
ALONG A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO FAR WESTERN WYOMING LINE AT 12Z
THURSDAY SHIFTS TO A SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AXIS BY 00Z SUNDAY.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LIMITED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLIGHT
AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.  MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. LOW LEVELS PRETTY DRY. SO...MAIN IMPACT OF MOISTURE WILL BE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONLY VERY SPOTTY ACTIVITY
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
ENCOUNTERED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 181748
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SKY COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WAS
OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE OVER COLORADO...AS ONLY SOME MID LEVEL
RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE AREA AS OF 0930Z. AS WAVE PASSES
OVER COLORADO TODAY...ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY
-SHRA/WEAK -TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SANGRES AND
SAN JUANS WHERE LIFT IS SLIGHTLY GREATER. LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF I-
25 WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS REMNANT CONVECTION DRIFTS OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY MOSTLY DRY AS
INSTABILITY IS LACKING. CLOUDS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP MAX TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT AS MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER WAVE
DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...THOUGH NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO
REFIRE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 06Z.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP MIN TEMPS LITTLE CHANGED FROM
SAT MORNING READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. WX PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE WEEK AND BEYOND. THANKS TO EL NINO AND
THE PERSISTENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENT...A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE WRN U.S...
WHILE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES UNDERCUT THE RIDGE.

A WEAK UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
SRN AZ AND NM THIS WEEKEND...AND COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE
FROM A FRONTAL SURGE ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW AND SRN MTS.
CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP FOR THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS PRETTY LOW.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY ON WED.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THE IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
A SHOT OF SOME PRECIP FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES QUICKLY INTO KS BY WED EVE...AND
LEAVES UP WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY THU MORNING.

THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SW. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LIMITED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.  MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO MID
AND HIGH LEVELS. LOW LEVELS PRETTY DRY. SO...MAIN IMPACT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONLY
VERY SPOTTY ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH. SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD BE ENCOUNTERED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD
REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 181748
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SKY COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WAS
OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE OVER COLORADO...AS ONLY SOME MID LEVEL
RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE AREA AS OF 0930Z. AS WAVE PASSES
OVER COLORADO TODAY...ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY
-SHRA/WEAK -TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SANGRES AND
SAN JUANS WHERE LIFT IS SLIGHTLY GREATER. LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF I-
25 WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS REMNANT CONVECTION DRIFTS OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY MOSTLY DRY AS
INSTABILITY IS LACKING. CLOUDS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP MAX TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT AS MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER WAVE
DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...THOUGH NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO
REFIRE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 06Z.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP MIN TEMPS LITTLE CHANGED FROM
SAT MORNING READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. WX PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE WEEK AND BEYOND. THANKS TO EL NINO AND
THE PERSISTENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENT...A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE WRN U.S...
WHILE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES UNDERCUT THE RIDGE.

A WEAK UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
SRN AZ AND NM THIS WEEKEND...AND COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE
FROM A FRONTAL SURGE ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW AND SRN MTS.
CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP FOR THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS PRETTY LOW.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY ON WED.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THE IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
A SHOT OF SOME PRECIP FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES QUICKLY INTO KS BY WED EVE...AND
LEAVES UP WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY THU MORNING.

THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SW. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LIMITED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.  MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO MID
AND HIGH LEVELS. LOW LEVELS PRETTY DRY. SO...MAIN IMPACT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONLY
VERY SPOTTY ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH. SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD BE ENCOUNTERED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD
REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 181748
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SKY COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WAS
OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE OVER COLORADO...AS ONLY SOME MID LEVEL
RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE AREA AS OF 0930Z. AS WAVE PASSES
OVER COLORADO TODAY...ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY
-SHRA/WEAK -TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SANGRES AND
SAN JUANS WHERE LIFT IS SLIGHTLY GREATER. LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF I-
25 WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS REMNANT CONVECTION DRIFTS OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY MOSTLY DRY AS
INSTABILITY IS LACKING. CLOUDS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP MAX TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT AS MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER WAVE
DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...THOUGH NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO
REFIRE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 06Z.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP MIN TEMPS LITTLE CHANGED FROM
SAT MORNING READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. WX PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE WEEK AND BEYOND. THANKS TO EL NINO AND
THE PERSISTENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENT...A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE WRN U.S...
WHILE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES UNDERCUT THE RIDGE.

A WEAK UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
SRN AZ AND NM THIS WEEKEND...AND COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE
FROM A FRONTAL SURGE ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW AND SRN MTS.
CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP FOR THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS PRETTY LOW.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY ON WED.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THE IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
A SHOT OF SOME PRECIP FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES QUICKLY INTO KS BY WED EVE...AND
LEAVES UP WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY THU MORNING.

THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SW. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LIMITED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.  MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO MID
AND HIGH LEVELS. LOW LEVELS PRETTY DRY. SO...MAIN IMPACT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONLY
VERY SPOTTY ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH. SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD BE ENCOUNTERED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD
REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 181748
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SKY COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WAS
OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE OVER COLORADO...AS ONLY SOME MID LEVEL
RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE AREA AS OF 0930Z. AS WAVE PASSES
OVER COLORADO TODAY...ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY
-SHRA/WEAK -TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SANGRES AND
SAN JUANS WHERE LIFT IS SLIGHTLY GREATER. LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF I-
25 WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS REMNANT CONVECTION DRIFTS OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY MOSTLY DRY AS
INSTABILITY IS LACKING. CLOUDS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP MAX TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT AS MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER WAVE
DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...THOUGH NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO
REFIRE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 06Z.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP MIN TEMPS LITTLE CHANGED FROM
SAT MORNING READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. WX PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE WEEK AND BEYOND. THANKS TO EL NINO AND
THE PERSISTENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENT...A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE WRN U.S...
WHILE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES UNDERCUT THE RIDGE.

A WEAK UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
SRN AZ AND NM THIS WEEKEND...AND COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE
FROM A FRONTAL SURGE ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW AND SRN MTS.
CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP FOR THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS PRETTY LOW.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY ON WED.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THE IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
A SHOT OF SOME PRECIP FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES QUICKLY INTO KS BY WED EVE...AND
LEAVES UP WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY THU MORNING.

THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SW. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LIMITED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.  MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO MID
AND HIGH LEVELS. LOW LEVELS PRETTY DRY. SO...MAIN IMPACT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONLY
VERY SPOTTY ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH. SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD BE ENCOUNTERED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD
REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW





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