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000
FXUS65 KPUB 240223
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
823 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED TO EXPIRE RED FLAG WARNING AND FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

POPS...TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES REMAINS PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL
ISSUES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY WELL-ABOVE LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES(AS NOTED BY 87F 3 PM TEMPERATURE
READING AT LAMAR) IN ADDITION TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS OVER MANY LOCATIONS.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT
SOME CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHERLY SURGE WHICH
IS NEARING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUPPORT IDEA OF GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS(SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR SEVERE TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS) FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS) AS NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES ACROSS.

IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MANY PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING...THEREFORE
WILL ALLOW EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING.  ALSO LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN IMPENDING GRIDS/ZONES.  A
SHORT-FUSE BLOWING DUST HIGHLIGHT MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IF BLOWING DUST BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

FOR THURSDAY...AS DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...HAVE DEPICTED DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL STILL RUN NEAR LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE OF LONG ENOUGH
DURATION AND/OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. FRI AFTERNOON THE RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND THE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FRI
NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE WEST COAST AND BEGINS PUSHING THE
UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA EASTWARD.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE FRI
NIGHT ALONG THE CONTDVD AS MSTR BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPR
TROF.  HOWEVER...MOST PCPN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT MORNING OR SAT
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR UT AND AZ...AND BRINGS DEEPER
MSTR TO THE CONTDVD.  WINDY CONDITIONS OVR SOME OF THE SERN PLAINS
SAT AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THAT AREA.

AT THIS TIME...THE GFS HAS AN UPR LOW OVR EASTERN UT BY 00Z SUN...
AND THE ECMWF HAS THE UPR LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...OVER NWRN AZ.
THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW AND TROF CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN THE MODELS
THRU ABOUT SUN EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING WITH A FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK THAN THE GFS.  THEN BY 00Z MON...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THE UPR LOW CENTER ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL CO BORDER AREA...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS IS JUST A LITTLER FARTHER NORTH. AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...PCPN SPREADS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN MTNS AND
MAYBE THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH POSITION IN
THE EC...PCPN IS MORE WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS...THAN
IN THE GFS.  TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN ABOVE 0C AT 700MB UNTIL
LATE SAT NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUN
THE GFS IS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF WHICH WL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN
SNOW LEVELS...BUT THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS TO THE MTNS.

THIS UPR LOW THEN MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON MONDAY...BUT THE EFFECTS
COULD LINGER AS THE EC IS SLOWER MOVING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD THAN
THE GFS AND IT KEEPS THE LOW OVR WRN KS THRU THE DAY MON...ALONG
WITH MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW OVR CO...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PCPN.
THE GFS MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO ERN KS BY MIDDAY MON WITH MAYBE
JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LINGERING OVR THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.  THE
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW EVEN LINGERS OVR THE AREA ON TUE AND WED WITH
SOME CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES...AS THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO SIT OVR
MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS(CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF VERY
GUSTY WINDS) WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 232137
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
337 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

POPS...TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES REMAINS PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL
ISSUES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY WELL-ABOVE LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES(AS NOTED BY 87F 3 PM TEMPERATURE
READING AT LAMAR) IN ADDITION TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS OVER MANY LOCATIONS.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT
SOME CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHERLY SURGE WHICH
IS NEARING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUPPORT IDEA OF GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS(SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR SEVERE TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS) FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS) AS NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES ACROSS.

IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MANY PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING...THEREFORE
WILL ALLOW EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING.  ALSO LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN IMPENDING GRIDS/ZONES.  A
SHORT-FUSE BLOWING DUST HIGHLIGHT MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IF BLOWING DUST BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

FOR THURSDAY...AS DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...HAVE DEPICTED DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL STILL RUN NEAR LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE OF LONG ENOUGH
DURATION AND/OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. FRI AFTERNOON THE RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND THE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FRI
NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE WEST COAST AND BEGINS PUSHING THE
UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA EASTWARD.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE FRI
NIGHT ALONG THE CONTDVD AS MSTR BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPR
TROF.  HOWEVER...MOST PCPN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT MORNING OR SAT
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR UT AND AZ...AND BRINGS DEEPER
MSTR TO THE CONTDVD.  WINDY CONDITIONS OVR SOME OF THE SERN PLAINS
SAT AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THAT AREA.

AT THIS TIME...THE GFS HAS AN UPR LOW OVR EASTERN UT BY 00Z SUN...
AND THE ECMWF HAS THE UPR LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...OVER NWRN AZ.
THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW AND TROF CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN THE MODELS
THRU ABOUT SUN EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING WITH A FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK THAN THE GFS.  THEN BY 00Z MON...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THE UPR LOW CENTER ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL CO BORDER AREA...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS IS JUST A LITTLER FARTHER NORTH. AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...PCPN SPREADS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN MTNS AND
MAYBE THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH POSITION IN
THE EC...PCPN IS MORE WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS...THAN
IN THE GFS.  TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN ABOVE 0C AT 700MB UNTIL
LATE SAT NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUN
THE GFS IS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF WHICH WL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN
SNOW LEVELS...BUT THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS TO THE MTNS.

THIS UPR LOW THEN MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON MONDAY...BUT THE EFFECTS
COULD LINGER AS THE EC IS SLOWER MOVING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD THAN
THE GFS AND IT KEEPS THE LOW OVR WRN KS THRU THE DAY MON...ALONG
WITH MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW OVR CO...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PCPN.
THE GFS MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO ERN KS BY MIDDAY MON WITH MAYBE
JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LINGERING OVR THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.  THE
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW EVEN LINGERS OVR THE AREA ON TUE AND WED WITH
SOME CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES...AS THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO SIT OVR
MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS(CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF VERY
GUSTY WINDS) WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231855
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1255 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND FORECAST TRENDS...HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO ADD THE SAN LUIS VALLEY(FIRE WEATHER ZONE
225) TO THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT EXPIRES AT 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED METEOROLOGICAL GRIDS AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER FOR THE STATE. AS OF 330 AM...THESE WINDS HAVE
TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SFC AS BREEZY S-SW WINDS...HELPING TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA SOMEWHAT WARM WITH 60S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...50S
FOR THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA AND EVEN 50 F IN ALAMOSA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST SINCE
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MORE SO THE
CENTRAL MTS...THEN AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT
AROUND 00Z...THEN PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EVE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WHILE
MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IS UNDER THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO STRONGER SW WINDS AND HOT DRY CONDITIONS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY...WITH THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WARNING AREA SHUTTING DOWN FIRST AS THE FRONT
RACES SOUTH. SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH REGARDS TO THE WALDO
BURN SCAR. DO NOT THINK THAT THE THREAT IS GREAT TODAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

...POTENTIAL STORM THIS WEEKEND...

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
COLORADO FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MORE
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
CURRENT FORECASTS TAKE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER AREA. AS PROJECTED NOW...THE SYSTEM WOULD
APPROACH THE 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND INCREASING THE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
THEN...SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER...SPREADING SNOW TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ON SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKE TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST...DRAGGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND IT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE
PLAINS...STRENGTHENS...AND GETS ORGANIZED...THE WINDS WOULD
REALLY CRANK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
MODERATELY COLD ALOFT...A LOT OF WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE
SYSTEM AT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS SO REALLY NOT A VERY COLD SYSTEM
AS IT COMES ACROSS. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6K BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY JUST RAIN BELOW THAT LEVEL.
SO...PLACES LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN WET SNOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...THAT WOULD GO FOR
SOUTHERN PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS WELL. FOR
THE REST OF THE PLAINS...IT WOULD MAINLY BE WIND DRIVEN RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WOULD PROBABLY SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE HIGH VALLEYS
ALSO SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY...IN THE FORM
OF WIND...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF AND THE TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO IS A SOMEWHAT NEW DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS WERE TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A TRACK MUCH
FARTHER NORTH...ONE LESS CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EVEN THE LATEST 06Z RUN OF THE GFS...JUST
COMING IN...HAS INTRODUCED MORE UNCERTAINTY...NOW TAKING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AGAIN...LEANING TOWARD LESS FAVORABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. NEED TO BE
CLOSER TO THE EVENT BEFORE WE CAN BUILD ANY KIND OF REAL CONFIDENCE.
LW

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TAF SITES KALS...KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD EXPERIENCE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER FOR THE STATE. AS OF 330 AM...THESE WINDS HAVE
TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SFC AS BREEZY S-SW WINDS...HELPING TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA SOMEWHAT WARM WITH 60S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...50S
FOR THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA AND EVEN 50 F IN ALAMOSA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST SINCE
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MORE SO THE
CENTRAL MTS...THEN AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT
AROUND 00Z...THEN PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EVE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WHILE
MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IS UNDER THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO STRONGER SW WINDS AND HOT DRY CONDITIONS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY...WITH THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WARNING AREA SHUTTING DOWN FIRST AS THE FRONT
RACES SOUTH. SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH REGARDS TO THE WALDO
BURN SCAR. DO NOT THINK THAT THE THREAT IS GREAT TODAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

...POTENTIAL STORM THIS WEEKEND...

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
COLORADO FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MORE
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
CURRENT FORECASTS TAKE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER AREA. AS PROJECTED NOW...THE SYSTEM WOULD
APPROACH THE 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND INCREASING THE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
THEN...SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER...SPREADING SNOW TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ON SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKE TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST...DRAGGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND IT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE
PLAINS...STRENGTHENS...AND GETS ORGANIZED...THE WINDS WOULD
REALLY CRANK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
MODERATELY COLD ALOFT...A LOT OF WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE
SYSTEM AT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS SO REALLY NOT A VERY COLD SYSTEM
AS IT COMES ACROSS. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6K BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY JUST RAIN BELOW THAT LEVEL.
SO...PLACES LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN WET SNOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...THAT WOULD GO FOR
SOUTHERN PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS WELL. FOR
THE REST OF THE PLAINS...IT WOULD MAINLY BE WIND DRIVEN RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WOULD PROBABLY SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE HIGH VALLEYS
ALSO SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY...IN THE FORM
OF WIND...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF AND THE TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO IS A SOMEWHAT NEW DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS WERE TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A TRACK MUCH
FARTHER NORTH...ONE LESS CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EVEN THE LATEST 06Z RUN OF THE GFS...JUST
COMING IN...HAS INTRODUCED MORE UNCERTAINTY...NOW TAKING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AGAIN...LEANING TOWARD LESS FAVORABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. NEED TO BE
CLOSER TO THE EVENT BEFORE WE CAN BUILD ANY KIND OF REAL CONFIDENCE.
LW

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TAF SITES KALS...KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD EXPERIENCE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231720
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER FOR THE STATE. AS OF 330 AM...THESE WINDS HAVE
TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SFC AS BREEZY S-SW WINDS...HELPING TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA SOMEWHAT WARM WITH 60S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...50S
FOR THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA AND EVEN 50 F IN ALAMOSA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST SINCE
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MORE SO THE
CENTRAL MTS...THEN AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT
AROUND 00Z...THEN PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EVE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WHILE
MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IS UNDER THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO STRONGER SW WINDS AND HOT DRY CONDITIONS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY...WITH THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WARNING AREA SHUTTING DOWN FIRST AS THE FRONT
RACES SOUTH. SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH REGARDS TO THE WALDO
BURN SCAR. DO NOT THINK THAT THE THREAT IS GREAT TODAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

...POTENTIAL STORM THIS WEEKEND...

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
COLORADO FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MORE
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
CURRENT FORECASTS TAKE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER AREA. AS PROJECTED NOW...THE SYSTEM WOULD
APPROACH THE 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND INCREASING THE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
THEN...SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER...SPREADING SNOW TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ON SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKE TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST...DRAGGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND IT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE
PLAINS...STRENGTHENS...AND GETS ORGANIZED...THE WINDS WOULD
REALLY CRANK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
MODERATELY COLD ALOFT...A LOT OF WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE
SYSTEM AT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS SO REALLY NOT A VERY COLD SYSTEM
AS IT COMES ACROSS. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6K BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY JUST RAIN BELOW THAT LEVEL.
SO...PLACES LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN WET SNOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...THAT WOULD GO FOR
SOUTHERN PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS WELL. FOR
THE REST OF THE PLAINS...IT WOULD MAINLY BE WIND DRIVEN RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WOULD PROBABLY SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE HIGH VALLEYS
ALSO SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY...IN THE FORM
OF WIND...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF AND THE TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO IS A SOMEWHAT NEW DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS WERE TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A TRACK MUCH
FARTHER NORTH...ONE LESS CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EVEN THE LATEST 06Z RUN OF THE GFS...JUST
COMING IN...HAS INTRODUCED MORE UNCERTAINTY...NOW TAKING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AGAIN...LEANING TOWARD LESS FAVORABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. NEED TO BE
CLOSER TO THE EVENT BEFORE WE CAN BUILD ANY KIND OF REAL CONFIDENCE.
LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

KALS...KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD EXPERIENCE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231042
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
442 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER FOR THE STATE. AS OF 330 AM...THESE WINDS HAVE
TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SFC AS BREEZY S-SW WINDS...HELPING TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA SOMEWHAT WARM WITH 60S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...50S
FOR THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA AND EVEN 50 F IN ALAMOSA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST SINCE
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MORE SO THE
CENTRAL MTS...THEN AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT
AROUND 00Z...THEN PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EVE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WHILE
MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IS UNDER THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO STRONGER SW WINDS AND HOT DRY CONDITIONS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY...WITH THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WARNING AREA SHUTTING DOWN FIRST AS THE FRONT
RACES SOUTH. SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH REGARDS TO THE WALDO
BURN SCAR. DO NOT THINK THAT THE THREAT IS GREAT TODAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

...POTENTIAL STORM THIS WEEKEND...

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
COLORADO FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MORE
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
CURRENT FORECASTS TAKE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER AREA. AS PROJECTED NOW...THE SYSTEM WOULD
APPROACH THE 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND INCREASING THE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
THEN...SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER...SPREADING SNOW TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ON SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKE TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST...DRAGGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND IT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE
PLAINS...STRENGTHENS...AND GETS ORGANIZED...THE WINDS WOULD
REALLY CRANK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
MODERATELY COLD ALOFT...A LOT OF WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE
SYSTEM AT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS SO REALLY NOT A VERY COLD SYSTEM
AS IT COMES ACROSS. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6K BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY JUST RAIN BELOW THAT LEVEL.
SO...PLACES LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN WET SNOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...THAT WOULD GO FOR
SOUTHERN PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS WELL. FOR
THE REST OF THE PLAINS...IT WOULD MAINLY BE WIND DRIVEN RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WOULD PROBABLY SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE HIGH VALLEYS
ALSO SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY...IN THE FORM
OF WIND...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF AND THE TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO IS A SOMEWHAT NEW DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS WERE TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A TRACK MUCH
FARTHER NORTH...ONE LESS CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EVEN THE LATEST 06Z RUN OF THE GFS...JUST
COMING IN...HAS INTRODUCED MORE UNCERTAINTY...NOW TAKING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AGAIN...LEANING TOWARD LESS FAVORABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. NEED TO BE
CLOSER TO THE EVENT BEFORE WE CAN BUILD ANY KIND OF REAL CONFIDENCE.
LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH
INCREASING S-SW SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTN. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 18Z-23Z ALONG THE I25
CORRIDOR. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT
AROUND 00Z...SWITCHING WINDS AT KCOS AROUND 00Z AND AT KPUB AROUND
01-02Z TO THE N-NW ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL SHUT OFF SOON AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 230516
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. PRECIP OVER
THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
KEPT SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...AS A FEW -SHRA OVER
NRN NM WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FORECASTS TO END -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE EASTERN MTS/PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING...ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CONVECTIVE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE THE PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING
DEVELOPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG(OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR
SEVERE/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN
ADDITION...AS ALWAYS...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS NEAR/OVER RECENT BURN SCARS(ESPECIALLY THE WALDO
CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS).

FOR WEDNESDAY(FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT)...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
DUE TO PROJECTED GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT A HEALTHY DRY-LINE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON(WHICH MATCHES QUITE NICELY WITH LATEST SPC 2ND DAY
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WFO PUEBLO CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DRY-
LINE CLOSELY.

FINALLY...MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WED NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING INTO KS BY EARLY THU MORNING.  WED
EVENING A FRONT WL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS...WITH
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE NAM HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
THAN THE GFS...BUT WL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST...
INCLUDING SOME TSTMS. SOME ISOLD PCPN MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD. THE NAM HOLDS ONTO SOME PCPN ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY THU
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS ENDS ALL PCPN BY LATE NIGHT.

AFTER THU MORNING...DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY AS AN UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA.
THU AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SRN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FREMONT
COUNTY...AS S TO SW WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS AND RH VALUES FALL
TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.  TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

FRI AFTERNOON THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR SOME OF THE MTN
AREAS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WX DRY. WL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING ANY
PCPN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL FRI EVENING ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL DRY
DURING THAT PERIOD.

BY SAT MORNING AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN NV...WHICH
THEN MOVES ACRS UT DURING THE DAY. THE TRACK THE STORM WILL TAKE
AFTER THAT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CO...REACHING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE BY
06Z SUN...AND THEN HEADING NORTHWARD TO WRN SD BY 18Z SUN. THE
ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WITH THE LOW CENTER ENDING UP
OVR SOUTH CENTRAL CO BY 06Z SUN...AND THEN IT HEAD NORTHEAST AND
ENDS UP IN WRN NE BY 18Z SUN. EITHER WAY...THE CONTDVD...THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND ERN MTS WL HAVE PCPN. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAT THE GFS SHOWS...THE SERN PLAINS GETS LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...WHILE THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF BRINGS PCPN TO
THAT AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. FOR NOW WL LEAN CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR MON...THE GFS HAS AN
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE WRN STATES AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAR
OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WX OVR THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE ECMWF STILL HAS AN UPR LOW OVR SWRN SD AND KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVR MUCH OF CO. FOR TUE BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT
STRONG UPR LOW OVR OVR IA/IL...LEAVING OUR AREA WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

TAF SITES WILL STAY VFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
WED...WITH INCREASING S-SW WINDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALL
TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z...WHICH
MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING DUST AROUND KPUB
AND KALS AFTER 20Z. COLD FRONT THEN DROPS THROUGH KCOS AND KPUB
00Z-01Z WITH A SWITCH TO N-NW WINDS AND SOME ISOLATED
-SHRA FROM KCOS NORTHWARD IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 230352
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
952 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. PRECIP OVER
THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
KEPT SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...AS A FEW -SHRA OVER
NRN NM WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FORECASTS TO END -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE EASTERN MTS/PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING...ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CONVECTIVE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE THE PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING
DEVELOPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG(OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR
SEVERE/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN
ADDITION...AS ALWAYS...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS NEAR/OVER RECENT BURN SCARS(ESPECIALLY THE WALDO
CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS).

FOR WEDNESDAY(FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT)...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
DUE TO PROJECTED GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT A HEALTHY DRY-LINE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON(WHICH MATCHES QUITE NICELY WITH LATEST SPC 2ND DAY
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WFO PUEBLO CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DRY-
LINE CLOSELY.

FINALLY...MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WED NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING INTO KS BY EARLY THU MORNING.  WED
EVENING A FRONT WL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS...WITH
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE NAM HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
THAN THE GFS...BUT WL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST...
INCLUDING SOME TSTMS. SOME ISOLD PCPN MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD. THE NAM HOLDS ONTO SOME PCPN ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY THU
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS ENDS ALL PCPN BY LATE NIGHT.

AFTER THU MORNING...DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY AS AN UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA.
THU AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SRN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FREMONT
COUNTY...AS S TO SW WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS AND RH VALUES FALL
TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.  TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

FRI AFTERNOON THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR SOME OF THE MTN
AREAS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WX DRY. WL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING ANY
PCPN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL FRI EVENING ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL DRY
DURING THAT PERIOD.

BY SAT MORNING AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN NV...WHICH
THEN MOVES ACRS UT DURING THE DAY. THE TRACK THE STORM WILL TAKE
AFTER THAT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CO...REACHING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE BY
06Z SUN...AND THEN HEADING NORTHWARD TO WRN SD BY 18Z SUN. THE
ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WITH THE LOW CENTER ENDING UP
OVR SOUTH CENTRAL CO BY 06Z SUN...AND THEN IT HEAD NORTHEAST AND
ENDS UP IN WRN NE BY 18Z SUN. EITHER WAY...THE CONTDVD...THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND ERN MTS WL HAVE PCPN. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAT THE GFS SHOWS...THE SERN PLAINS GETS LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...WHILE THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF BRINGS PCPN TO
THAT AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. FOR NOW WL LEAN CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR MON...THE GFS HAS AN
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE WRN STATES AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAR
OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WX OVR THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE ECMWF STILL HAS AN UPR LOW OVR SWRN SD AND KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVR MUCH OF CO. FOR TUE BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT
STRONG UPR LOW OVR OVR IA/IL...LEAVING OUR AREA WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED NEAR ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 230114
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
714 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FORECASTS TO END -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE EASTERN MTS/PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING...ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CONVECTIVE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE THE PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING
DEVELOPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG(OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR
SEVERE/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN
ADDITION...AS ALWAYS...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS NEAR/OVER RECENT BURN SCARS(ESPECIALLY THE WALDO
CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS).

FOR WEDNESDAY(FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT)...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
DUE TO PROJECTED GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT A HEALTHY DRY-LINE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON(WHICH MATCHES QUITE NICELY WITH LATEST SPC 2ND DAY
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WFO PUEBLO CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DRY-
LINE CLOSELY.

FINALLY...MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WED NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING INTO KS BY EARLY THU MORNING.  WED
EVENING A FRONT WL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS...WITH
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE NAM HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
THAN THE GFS...BUT WL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST...
INCLUDING SOME TSTMS. SOME ISOLD PCPN MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD. THE NAM HOLDS ONTO SOME PCPN ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY THU
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS ENDS ALL PCPN BY LATE NIGHT.

AFTER THU MORNING...DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY AS AN UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA.
THU AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SRN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FREMONT
COUNTY...AS S TO SW WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS AND RH VALUES FALL
TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.  TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

FRI AFTERNOON THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR SOME OF THE MTN
AREAS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WX DRY. WL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING ANY
PCPN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL FRI EVENING ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL DRY
DURING THAT PERIOD.

BY SAT MORNING AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN NV...WHICH
THEN MOVES ACRS UT DURING THE DAY. THE TRACK THE STORM WILL TAKE
AFTER THAT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CO...REACHING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE BY
06Z SUN...AND THEN HEADING NORTHWARD TO WRN SD BY 18Z SUN. THE
ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WITH THE LOW CENTER ENDING UP
OVR SOUTH CENTRAL CO BY 06Z SUN...AND THEN IT HEAD NORTHEAST AND
ENDS UP IN WRN NE BY 18Z SUN. EITHER WAY...THE CONTDVD...THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND ERN MTS WL HAVE PCPN. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAT THE GFS SHOWS...THE SERN PLAINS GETS LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...WHILE THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF BRINGS PCPN TO
THAT AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. FOR NOW WL LEAN CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR MON...THE GFS HAS AN
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE WRN STATES AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAR
OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WX OVR THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE ECMWF STILL HAS AN UPR LOW OVR SWRN SD AND KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVR MUCH OF CO. FOR TUE BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT
STRONG UPR LOW OVR OVR IA/IL...LEAVING OUR AREA WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED NEAR ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 222110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
310 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CONVECTIVE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE THE PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING
DEVELOPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG(OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR
SEVERE/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN
ADDITION...AS ALWAYS...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS NEAR/OVER RECENT BURN SCARS(ESPECIALLY THE WALDO
CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS).

FOR WEDNESDAY(FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT)...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
DUE TO PROJECTED GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT A HEALTHY DRY-LINE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON(WHICH MATCHES QUITE NICELY WITH LATEST SPC 2ND DAY
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WFO PUEBLO CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DRY-
LINE CLOSELY.

FINALLY...MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WED NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING INTO KS BY EARLY THU MORNING.  WED
EVENING A FRONT WL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS...WITH
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE NAM HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
THAN THE GFS...BUT WL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST...
INCLUDING SOME TSTMS. SOME ISOLD PCPN MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD. THE NAM HOLDS ONTO SOME PCPN ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY THU
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS ENDS ALL PCPN BY LATE NIGHT.

AFTER THU MORNING...DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY AS AN UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA.
THU AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SRN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FREMONT
COUNTY...AS S TO SW WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS AND RH VALUES FALL
TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.  TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

FRI AFTERNOON THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR SOME OF THE MTN
AREAS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WX DRY. WL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING ANY
PCPN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL FRI EVENING ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL DRY
DURING THAT PERIOD.

BY SAT MORNING AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN NV...WHICH
THEN MOVES ACRS UT DURING THE DAY. THE TRACK THE STORM WILL TAKE
AFTER THAT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CO...REACHING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE BY
06Z SUN...AND THEN HEADING NORTHWARD TO WRN SD BY 18Z SUN. THE
ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WITH THE LOW CENTER ENDING UP
OVR SOUTH CENTRAL CO BY 06Z SUN...AND THEN IT HEAD NORTHEAST AND
ENDS UP IN WRN NE BY 18Z SUN. EITHER WAY...THE CONTDVD...THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND ERN MTS WL HAVE PCPN. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAT THE GFS SHOWS...THE SERN PLAINS GETS LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...WHILE THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF BRINGS PCPN TO
THAT AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. FOR NOW WL LEAN CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR MON...THE GFS HAS AN
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE WRN STATES AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAR
OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WX OVR THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE ECMWF STILL HAS AN UPR LOW OVR SWRN SD AND KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVR MUCH OF CO. FOR TUE BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT
STRONG UPR LOW OVR OVR IA/IL...LEAVING OUR AREA WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED NEAR ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221712
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO CONVERT PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226>237 AS WELL AS TO INCORPORATE LATEST REAL-TIME
METEOROLOGICAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

...BREEZY...WARM...AND SHOWERY TODAY...

HIGH CLOUDS NOW SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND UT TODAY...THEN ON
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MAIN QUESTION FOR
US WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION TO EXPECT.

NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS...SHOWING SCT TO NMRS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENSIVE QPF OVER THE ERN
PLAINS. BELIEVE IT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. HOWEVER...SAME BASIC STORY
IS TOLD BY THE WRF AND RUC...AND WITH INSTABILITY ON THE RISE ALONG
WITH UPPER FORCING...EXPECT AT LEAST SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY OVR THE MTS...SPREADING EWD THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS. PREC
H2O NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT PACE
TO THE EAST...SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL. BIGGEST CONCERN
WILL BE NR THE KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...IF MOISTURE CAN HANG ON
LONG ENOUGH. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS PROGGED AT UPPER 30S TO NR 40...AND
LIFTED INDICES AT MINUS 3 TO MINUS 4...POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM
OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAN NOT BE OVERLOOKED. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER BENT...PROWERS...AND KIOWA COUNTIES IN THE 22-
01Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PENNY-NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45-50 KTS IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO KS THIS EVE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN PRETTY HIGH TODAY...ABOVE 11000 FEET. H7
TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE 9 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND WITH SW WINDS ON THE INCREASE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENT OF PRECIP
AND CLOUD COVER COULD PUT A CAP ON HIGH TEMPS BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT
IT STILL SHOULD BE A QUITE WARM DAY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AFD...STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WX DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. NOT SEEING ANY STRONG TRENDS TOWARDS WORSENING
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER. RH COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO THE 15 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING ABOVE 25 KTS AT
TIMES. BETWEEN THE MARGINAL PARAMETERS AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PRECIP
WILL AFFECT THE AREA...DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

CONVECTION SHOULD DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT...WHILE CLOUDY CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH THE EVE. WILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVE...ESPECIALLY
OUT OVER THE PLAINS...LEADING TO A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...MODELS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH PUSHING THE NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH
TO PRODUCE A LOT OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
FAIR SHARE OF WIND THOUGH...AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
PLAINS ON WED LOOKS GOOD SINCE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 15 PERCENT. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INITIALLY...BUT AS THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD SOME TIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z WED EVE...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE E PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS KICKS EAST
RATHER QUICKLY...SO FEEL THAT ALL PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN END SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MAX TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...THEN BOOSTING TO NEAR 80 F FOR THE
PLAINS ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW...AND CONTINUE TO PAINT A VERY UNSETTLED PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. EARLY SAT MORNING A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES CA AND NV...PRODUCING STRONG S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WHILE
CONVECTION APPROACHES THE CONTDVD FOR SAT AFTN. AT THIS POINT...SAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY FOR THE E PLAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE STATE AS AN OPEN WAVE...THEN A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US PLAINS ON SUN WHICH MEANDERS
THROUGH MON. PINPOINTING PCPN AREAS AND AMOUNTS IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE
FOR THE TIME BEING...SO DECIDED TO STAY WITH THE POP GRIDS THAT THE
EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE THE COOLEST DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED NEAR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 221539
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
939 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO CONVERT PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226>237 AS WELL AS TO INCORPORATE LATEST REAL-TIME
METEOROLOGICAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

...BREEZY...WARM...AND SHOWERY TODAY...

HIGH CLOUDS NOW SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND UT TODAY...THEN ON
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MAIN QUESTION FOR
US WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION TO EXPECT.

NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS...SHOWING SCT TO NMRS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENSIVE QPF OVER THE ERN
PLAINS. BELIEVE IT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. HOWEVER...SAME BASIC STORY
IS TOLD BY THE WRF AND RUC...AND WITH INSTABILITY ON THE RISE ALONG
WITH UPPER FORCING...EXPECT AT LEAST SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY OVR THE MTS...SPREADING EWD THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS. PREC
H2O NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT PACE
TO THE EAST...SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL. BIGGEST CONCERN
WILL BE NR THE KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...IF MOISTURE CAN HANG ON
LONG ENOUGH. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS PROGGED AT UPPER 30S TO NR 40...AND
LIFTED INDICES AT MINUS 3 TO MINUS 4...POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM
OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAN NOT BE OVERLOOKED. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER BENT...PROWERS...AND KIOWA COUNTIES IN THE 22-
01Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PENNY-NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45-50 KTS IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO KS THIS EVE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN PRETTY HIGH TODAY...ABOVE 11000 FEET. H7
TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE 9 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND WITH SW WINDS ON THE INCREASE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENT OF PRECIP
AND CLOUD COVER COULD PUT A CAP ON HIGH TEMPS BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT
IT STILL SHOULD BE A QUITE WARM DAY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AFD...STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WX DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. NOT SEEING ANY STRONG TRENDS TOWARDS WORSENING
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER. RH COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO THE 15 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING ABOVE 25 KTS AT
TIMES. BETWEEN THE MARGINAL PARAMETERS AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PRECIP
WILL AFFECT THE AREA...DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

CONVECTION SHOULD DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT...WHILE CLOUDY CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH THE EVE. WILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVE...ESPECIALLY
OUT OVER THE PLAINS...LEADING TO A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...MODELS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH PUSHING THE NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH
TO PRODUCE A LOT OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
FAIR SHARE OF WIND THOUGH...AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
PLAINS ON WED LOOKS GOOD SINCE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 15 PERCENT. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INITIALLY...BUT AS THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD SOME TIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z WED EVE...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE E PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS KICKS EAST
RATHER QUICKLY...SO FEEL THAT ALL PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN END SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MAX TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...THEN BOOSTING TO NEAR 80 F FOR THE
PLAINS ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW...AND CONTINUE TO PAINT A VERY UNSETTLED PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. EARLY SAT MORNING A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES CA AND NV...PRODUCING STRONG S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WHILE
CONVECTION APPROACHES THE CONTDVD FOR SAT AFTN. AT THIS POINT...SAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY FOR THE E PLAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE STATE AS AN OPEN WAVE...THEN A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US PLAINS ON SUN WHICH MEANDERS
THROUGH MON. PINPOINTING PCPN AREAS AND AMOUNTS IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE
FOR THE TIME BEING...SO DECIDED TO STAY WITH THE POP GRIDS THAT THE
EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE THE COOLEST DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. S-
SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD GUST IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE TS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
SCT STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD-SCT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS COULD BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY NR ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 220946
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

...BREEZY...WARM...AND SHOWERY TODAY...

HIGH CLOUDS NOW SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND UT TODAY...THEN ON
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MAIN QUESTION FOR
US WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION TO EXPECT.

NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS...SHOWING SCT TO NMRS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENSIVE QPF OVER THE ERN
PLAINS. BELIEVE IT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. HOWEVER...SAME BASIC STORY
IS TOLD BY THE WRF AND RUC...AND WITH INSTABILITY ON THE RISE ALONG
WITH UPPER FORCING...EXPECT AT LEAST SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY OVR THE MTS...SPREADING EWD THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS. PREC
H2O NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT PACE
TO THE EAST...SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL. BIGGEST CONCERN
WILL BE NR THE KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...IF MOISTURE CAN HANG ON
LONG ENOUGH. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS PROGGED AT UPPER 30S TO NR 40...AND
LIFTED INDICES AT MINUS 3 TO MINUS 4...POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM
OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAN NOT BE OVERLOOKED. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER BENT...PROWERS...AND KIOWA COUNTIES IN THE 22-
01Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PENNY-NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45-50 KTS IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO KS THIS EVE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN PRETTY HIGH TODAY...ABOVE 11000 FEET. H7
TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE 9 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND WITH SW WINDS ON THE INCREASE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENT OF PRECIP
AND CLOUD COVER COULD PUT A CAP ON HIGH TEMPS BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT
IT STILL SHOULD BE A QUITE WARM DAY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AFD...STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WX DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. NOT SEEING ANY STRONG TRENDS TOWARDS WORSENING
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER. RH COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO THE 15 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING ABOVE 25 KTS AT
TIMES. BETWEEN THE MARGINAL PARAMETERS AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PRECIP
WILL AFFECT THE AREA...DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

CONVECTION SHOULD DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT...WHILE CLOUDY CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH THE EVE. WILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVE...ESPECIALLY
OUT OVER THE PLAINS...LEADING TO A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...MODELS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH PUSHING THE NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH
TO PRODUCE A LOT OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
FAIR SHARE OF WIND THOUGH...AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
PLAINS ON WED LOOKS GOOD SINCE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 15 PERCENT. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INITIALLY...BUT AS THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD SOME TIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z WED EVE...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE E PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS KICKS EAST
RATHER QUICKLY...SO FEEL THAT ALL PCPN SHOUL;D COME TO AN END SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MAX TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...THEN BOSSTING TO NEAR 80 F FOR THE PLAINS
ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW...AND CONTINUE TO PAINT A VERY UNSETTLED PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. EARLY SAT MORNING A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES CA AND NV...PRODUCING STRONG S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WHILE
CONVECTION APPROACHES THE CONTDVD FOR SAT AFTN. AT THIS POINT...SAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY FOR THE E PLAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE STATE AS AN OPEN WAVE...THEN A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US PLAINS ON SUN WHICH MEANDERS
THROUGH MON. PINPOINTING PCPN AREAS AND AMOUNTS IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE
FOR THE TIME BEING...SO DECIDED TO STAY WITH THE POP GRIDS THAT THE
EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE THE COOLEST DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. S-
SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD GUST IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE TS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
SCT STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD-SCT SOTRMS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE TAF SITES. WINDS COULD BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY NR ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 220509
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1109 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE POP GRIDS AND BRING IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AN HOUR OR SO
AFTER SUNSET.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

...INCREASING WINDS FOR TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK PV ANOMALY EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SFC DEW POINTS
HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.  AFTERNOON HEATING HAS TRIGGERED
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LACK OF FORCING COVERAGE HAS BEEN PRETTY SPARSE
AND LACK OF MOISTURE HAS LIMITED UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  HRRR HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN...SO HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE
EVENING HOURS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING
ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FOR TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SPREADING IN.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ONE CONCERN FOR
TOMORROW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  GFS IS DRIER WITH SFC DEW
POINTS (UPPER 20S)...WHILE NAM ACTUALLY INCREASES THEM IN THE
AFTERNOON (30S TO AROUND 40) AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND -SHRA/VIRGA
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS.  LATEST 4KM WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS MOISTENING
TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS MID-
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR EAST PLAINS WHICH RESULTS IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 18-25% RANGE...TOO HIGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.  QUITE A BIT OF HUERFANO COUNTY HAD SOME GOOD RAIN FROM
THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND...SO THE MOST LIKE SPOTS FOR MARGINAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WOULD BE PUEBLO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN EL PASO...AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES.  LOCAL
WRF IS SLOW TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DURATION TO LESS THAN THE 3 HR
REQUIRED MINIMUM.  WITH ALL THESE MARGINAL CRITERIA...DECIDED NOT TO
HOIST ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS MORE HIGH RES MODELS BEGIN TO RESOLVE THESE FINER
DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.  THESE WILL BE PRETTY HIGH BASED AND
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING AND ONLY SOME BRIEF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SPOTTY AREAS.  A MARGINALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES
WILL ONLY BE RUNNING AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES INCLUDE BUT
ARE NOT LIMITED TO POPS...TEMPERATURES...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER/NEAR EASTERN SECTIONS AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER MODEL
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS AS WELL AS INCREASED DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...THEREFORE WILL ALLOW
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS
WELL AS OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO SET-UP NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK PAINTING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY JUST EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. WFO PUEBLO
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

THEN BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME WILL DEPICT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME
IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.

NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS HAVE VARYING FORECAST TRACKS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH GFS FURTHEST SOUTH AND ECMWF AND DGEX FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
18Z NEXT MONDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT BY THIS WEEKEND.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN
ANTICIPATED FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT KALS...AND 25 KTS AT
KCOS. IN ADDITION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD
EAST INTO THE KALS AND KCOS REGIONS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
THAT ONE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER 20Z
AND PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 220002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
602 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE POP GRIDS AND BRING IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AN HOUR OR SO
AFTER SUNSET.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

...INCREASING WINDS FOR TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK PV ANOMALY EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SFC DEW POINTS
HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.  AFTERNOON HEATING HAS TRIGGERED
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LACK OF FORCING COVERAGE HAS BEEN PRETTY SPARSE
AND LACK OF MOISTURE HAS LIMITED UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  HRRR HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN...SO HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE
EVENING HOURS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING
ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FOR TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SPREADING IN.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ONE CONCERN FOR
TOMORROW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  GFS IS DRIER WITH SFC DEW
POINTS (UPPER 20S)...WHILE NAM ACTUALLY INCREASES THEM IN THE
AFTERNOON (30S TO AROUND 40) AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND -SHRA/VIRGA
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS.  LATEST 4KM WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS MOISTENING
TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS MID-
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR EAST PLAINS WHICH RESULTS IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 18-25% RANGE...TOO HIGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.  QUITE A BIT OF HUERFANO COUNTY HAD SOME GOOD RAIN FROM
THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND...SO THE MOST LIKE SPOTS FOR MARGINAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WOULD BE PUEBLO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN EL PASO...AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES.  LOCAL
WRF IS SLOW TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DURATION TO LESS THAN THE 3 HR
REQUIRED MINIMUM.  WITH ALL THESE MARGINAL CRITERIA...DECIDED NOT TO
HOIST ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS MORE HIGH RES MODELS BEGIN TO RESOLVE THESE FINER
DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.  THESE WILL BE PRETTY HIGH BASED AND
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING AND ONLY SOME BRIEF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SPOTTY AREAS.  A MARGINALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES
WILL ONLY BE RUNNING AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES INCLUDE BUT
ARE NOT LIMITED TO POPS...TEMPERATURES...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER/NEAR EASTERN SECTIONS AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER MODEL
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS AS WELL AS INCREASED DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...THEREFORE WILL ALLOW
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS
WELL AS OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO SET-UP NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK PAINTING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY JUST EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. WFO PUEBLO
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

THEN BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME WILL DEPICT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME
IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.

NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS HAVE VARYING FORECAST TRACKS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH GFS FURTHEST SOUTH AND ECMWF AND DGEX FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
18Z NEXT MONDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT BY THIS WEEKEND.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN
ANTICIPATED FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW WEAK CELLS MOVING INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  PROBABILITIES OF ONE OF THESE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LOOKS TOO SMALL AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THEY COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS.  INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROBABLY
START AT THE KCOS AND KALS TAF SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING TO
AROUND THE NOON HOUR.  GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SET
IN AT KPUB.  GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.  THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED AND MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING...ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 212128
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

...INCREASING WINDS FOR TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK PV ANOMALY EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SFC DEW POINTS
HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.  AFTERNOON HEATING HAS TRIGGERED
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LACK OF FORCING COVERAGE HAS BEEN PRETTY SPARSE
AND LACK OF MOISTURE HAS LIMITED UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  HRRR HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN...SO HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE
EVENING HOURS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING
ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FOR TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SPREADING IN.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ONE CONCERN FOR
TOMORROW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  GFS IS DRIER WITH SFC DEW
POINTS (UPPER 20S)...WHILE NAM ACTUALLY INCREASES THEM IN THE
AFTERNOON (30S TO AROUND 40) AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND -SHRA/VIRGA
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS.  LATEST 4KM WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS MOISTENING
TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS MID-
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR EAST PLAINS WHICH RESULTS IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 18-25% RANGE...TOO HIGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.  QUITE A BIT OF HUERFANO COUNTY HAD SOME GOOD RAIN FROM
THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND...SO THE MOST LIKE SPOTS FOR MARGINAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WOULD BE PUEBLO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN EL PASO...AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES.  LOCAL
WRF IS SLOW TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DURATION TO LESS THAN THE 3 HR
REQUIRED MINIMUM.  WITH ALL THESE MARGINAL CRITERIA...DECIDED NOT TO
HOIST ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS MORE HIGH RES MODELS BEGIN TO RESOLVE THESE FINER
DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.  THESE WILL BE PRETTY HIGH BASED AND
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING AND ONLY SOME BRIEF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SPOTTY AREAS.  A MARGINALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES
WILL ONLY BE RUNNING AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES INCLUDE BUT
ARE NOT LIMITED TO POPS...TEMPERATURES...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER/NEAR EASTERN SECTIONS AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER MODEL
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS AS WELL AS INCREASED DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...THEREFORE WILL ALLOW
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS
WELL AS OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO SET-UP NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK PAINTING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY JUST EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. WFO PUEBLO
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

THEN BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME WILL DEPICT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME
IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.

NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS HAVE VARYING FORECAST TRACKS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH GFS FURTHEST SOUTH AND ECMWF AND DGEX FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
18Z NEXT MONDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT BY THIS WEEKEND.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN
ANTICIPATED FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW WEAK CELLS MOVING INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  PROBABILITIES OF ONE OF THESE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LOOKS TOO SMALL AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THEY COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS.  INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROBABLY
START AT THE KCOS AND KALS TAF SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING TO
AROUND THE NOON HOUR.  GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SET
IN AT KPUB.  GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.  THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED AND MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING...ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 211727
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

...NICE START TO THE WORK WEEK...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CHANCES OF CONVECTION. FORCING
OF THIS WEEKEND HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST...SO UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK TODAY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE 40S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT 30S AND 20S OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND TREND IS FOR DRYING TO CONTINUE. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND EXPECT THAT
BIAS TO CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MESOSCALE AND HI-RES MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE A ROUND OF ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND RUNNING THROUGH EARLY EVE.
THE MAIN TRIGGER WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE THAT CAN BE
SEEN IN WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING INTO WRN CO THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
THIS WAVE WILL LARGELY BE THROUGH OUR AREA FROM 18-21Z...SO COULD
SEE THE PEAK IN CONVECTION OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER
OFF GRADUALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVE. THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE ERN MTS...AND THE
SRN PART OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE SPANISH PEAKS AREA...RATON MESA
AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...AND POSSIBLY SRN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY. CAPE LOOKS MEAGER...AND LTG WILL PROBABLY BE SCARCE
TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR
FORECAST CONTINUITY AND FOR ISOLD CHANCES.

IN COMPARISON...TEMPS WILL BE EASY TODAY...WITH HIGHS JUST OFF OR NR
WHAT THE HIGHS WERE YESTERDAY. SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL BE
PARTIALLY COMPENSATED FOR BY FEWER CLOUDS OVERALL. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S PLAINS AND 50S-60S FOR THE HIGHER TRRN.
OVERALL...A REALLY NICE SPRING DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 09Z...
COULD START TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW MTS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. INTRODUCED LOW POPS OVER THE SAN JUANS FOR THIS
SCENARIO. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST OUT OF COLORADO ON
TUE...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
LOOK FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...AS WELL AS INCREASING W-SW SURFACE WINDS. HELD OFF ON ANY FIRE
WX HIGHLIGHT SINCE HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN...THEN POSSIBLY
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WED...WITH STRONG WINDS A
POSSIBILITY FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE. ANOTHER VERY WARM
DAY ON TAP AHEAD OF AN EVENING COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AND WITH
LOWERING DEWPOINTS...THIS LOOKS TO BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF
THE SE PLAINS FOR THE AFTN AND EVE. GFS SHOWS THE SFC COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH EXITS TO THE
EAST...THU SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT BREEZY BORDERING ON WINDY
DAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH
LEVELS ON THU SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF FIRE WX HIGHLIGHT. DRY ON
THU...AS WELL AS FOR MUCH OF FRI AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS FOR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A VERY UNSETTLED
PICTURE NOW FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN HOW
IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SW EARLY SAT...THEN EJECTS IT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ON SUN. THE
EC...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS A 6-12 HR SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH. FOR THE TIME BEING...BLANKETED THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS BOTH DAYS WITH COOLER TEMPS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE WEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DRIFT OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. ODDS ARE LOW THAT THESE WILL
IMPACT THE TAF SITES DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KTS FOR BOTH KCOS AND
KPUB...AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR KALS.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH GENERALLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING.
-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 210943
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
343 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

...NICE START TO THE WORK WEEK...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CHANCES OF CONVECTION. FORCING
OF THIS WEEKEND HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST...SO UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK TODAY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE 40S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT 30S AND 20S OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND TREND IS FOR DRYING TO CONTINUE. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND EXPECT THAT
BIAS TO CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MESOSCALE AND HI-RES MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE A ROUND OF ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND RUNNING THROUGH EARLY EVE.
THE MAIN TRIGGER WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE THAT CAN BE
SEEN IN WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING INTO WRN CO THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
THIS WAVE WILL LARGELY BE THROUGH OUR AREA FROM 18-21Z...SO COULD
SEE THE PEAK IN CONVECTION OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER
OFF GRADUALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVE. THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE ERN MTS...AND THE
SRN PART OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE SPANISH PEAKS AREA...RATON MESA
AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...AND POSSIBLY SRN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY. CAPE LOOKS MEAGER...AND LTG WILL PROBABLY BE SCARCE
TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR
FORECAST CONTINUITY AND FOR ISOLD CHANCES.

IN COMPARISON...TEMPS WILL BE EASY TODAY...WITH HIGHS JUST OFF OR NR
WHAT THE HIGHS WERE YESTERDAY. SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL BE
PARTIALLY COMPENSATED FOR BY FEWER CLOUDS OVERALL. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S PLAINS AND 50S-60S FOR THE HIGHER TRRN.
OVERALL...A REALLY NICE SPRING DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 09Z...
COULD START TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW MTS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. INTRODUCED LOW POPS OVER THE SAN JUANS FOR THIS
SCENARIO. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST OUT OF COLORADO ON
TUE...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
LOOK FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...AS WELL AS INCREASING W-SW SURFACE WINDS. HELD OFF ON ANY FIRE
WX HIGHLIGHT SINCE HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN...THEN POSSIBLY
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WED...WITH STRONG WINDS A
POSSIBILITY FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE. ANOTHER VERY WARM
DAY ON TAP AHEAD OF AN EVENING COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AND WITH
LOWERING DEWPOINTS...THIS LOOKS TO BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF
THE SE PLAINS FOR THE AFTN AND EVE. GFS SHOWS THE SFC COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH EXITS TO THE
EAST...THU SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT BREEZY BORDERING ON WINDY
DAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH
LEVELS ON THU SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF FIRE WX HIGHLIGHT. DRY ON
THU...AS WELL AS FOR MUCH OF FRI AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS FOR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A VERY UNSETTLED
PICTURE NOW FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN HOW
IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SW EARLY SAT...THEN EJECTS IT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ON SUN. THE
EC...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS A 6-12 HR SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH. FOR THE TIME BEING...BLANKETED THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS BOTH DAYS WITH COOLER TEMPS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE WEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS. ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS AND
SURROUNDING TRRN THROUGH EARLY EVE TODAY. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 210508
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED TO TREND POPS WITH THE LATEST RADAR DATA. SINCE SUN
DOWN...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE NEW
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH...AND OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WEST OF I-25 WHERE WEAK ACTIVITY
CONTINUES. HAVE MAINTAINED THESE AREAS SEEING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
LOW IS SITTING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. LIGHTNING ALONG
WITH 40 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN
THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

MODELS RAPIDLY DISSIPATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS DRY BY MIDNIGHT. AREAS OUT EAST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND
AREAS DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL HOLD OUT THE
LONGEST.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPPER LOW OVER SE CO/NW NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IN AREA
OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INSTABILITY.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND APPEARS THAT TAIL END OF PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH MAY BE AIDING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS NW CO.  THIS
LATTER FEATURE WILL CLIP THROUGH NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RUN-OFF
PRODUCING RAINFALL ON THE BURN SCARS.  OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE
THE EAST PEAK BURN SCAR WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATES COMPARED WITH GAGES IN THE AREA SUGGEST
THAT PORTIONS OF THE BURN SCAR MAY HAVE RECEIVED .50 TO .70 OF
RAINFALL. THIS OCCURRED SLOWLY THOUGH WITH RATES UNDER .10 TO .20
PER HOUR...SO NO PROBLEMS WERE NOTED. HOWEVER IF THIS AREA WERE TO
GET HIT WITH A STRONGER CELL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THE
SATURATED GROUND MAY RESULT IN SOME QUICK RUN-OFF PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO HELP KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE...SO RISK SEEMS LOW AT THIS POINT.

A LITTLE BETTER HEATING HAS BEEN REALIZED FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION.  HOWEVER...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30S AND LATEST HRRR DROPS THEM INTO THE UPPER 20S BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH REALLY CUTS BACK ON THE INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT
THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH.  WHILE CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONGER CELL IMPACTING THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...THINK THIS
CHANCE IS FAIRLY LOW...AND IF IT DID WOULD PROBABLY NOT LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN SOME MINOR RUN-OFF ISSUES AT BEST.
ALSO...WATCHING THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF THE STATE IN VCNTY OF UPPER
LOW...WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BECOME STEEP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SHORT LIVED NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO/LANDSPOUT.  SO
FAR...UPDRAFT STRENGTHS HAVEN`T BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO STRETCH ANY
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY AS SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A POCKET OF HIGH NON-SUPERCELL TOR INDICES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

ALL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SO THESE THREATS SHOULD QUICKLY
COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ON MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES IN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN TODAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS LONGER TERM THINKING WITH
MAIN LONGER TERM ISSUES BEING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AT TIMES FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND...INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT VARYING DEGREES OF ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY)...PRIMARILY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN POSSIBLY CONTINUING AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. WFO
PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IN ADDITION...METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST DISTRICT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS CLOSELY.

SWITCHING FOCUS TO TEMPERATURES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT BOTH MINIMUM
AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL. IF A
SHOWER MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL...IT WOULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY





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