Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KPUB 300223
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
823 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO PULL IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE AREAS. DEW POINTS REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS SEEN IN THE DRYING ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYING
ALOFT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE SEEN SPINNING NEAR THE CENTRAL COLORADO
AND UTAH BORDER. SPC MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH CAPES OVER
2000J/KG AND WEAK CIN.

TONIGHT...AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. AS OF 20Z...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
DEVELOP THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
20Z...MOVES EASTWARD. CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS
THE LATEST HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. THE HRRR HAS A FIRST LINE
CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z TO 22Z PM WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAKS REGION AND
THE RATON RIDGE. THEN...A SECOND AND STRONG ROUND OF CONVECTION
MOVES OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 01Z TO 03Z...WITH PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS GETTING CLOBBERED BY SOME STRONG
STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST...THEY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH
MOVES EASTWARDS OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT WATCH LOOKS
GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND MCS
OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS LATER INT HE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY FOR CONVECTION AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AS MCS MOVES INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING WITH EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 1.5KM
ABOVE THE SURFACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE STILL WELL OVER AN INCH
ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR. WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES
ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG ANY STORMS
CAN BECOME TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO GET STRONG CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...BUT A MORE PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. AM ALWAYS LEARY OF VERY MOIST SOUNDINGS WITH 1.5KM DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS..AS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY GET
PINNED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
WEST...SOME MODEST DRYING WILL OCCUR...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AFTER 06Z. MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST THU WILL BE A RATHER DOWN
DAY FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHERE COOL AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA ONCE AGAIN...WITH HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
UNDER AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...AXIS OF DEEPER INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTURN IN TSRA
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AS AIR MASS IS STILL RATHER
STABLE NEAR THE KS BORDER...THOUGH NW STEERING CURRENTS MAY ALLOW
A FEW WEAKENING TSRA TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN UNDER ANY STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FAIRLY HEALTHY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. TEMPWISE...UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING FRI/SAT...WITH TEMPS
WARMING MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF
SEASONAL VALUES.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN DRIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN
INTO MON...OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN INCREASED FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUN...THEN ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS LIFT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...WHICH MAY HELP PUSH MOUNTAIN TSRA ON TO THE PLAINS AS
WELL. SUSPECT CURRENT POPS FOR THE DAY 4-7 PROCEDURE MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO LOW AND WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST CYCLES. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CREEP UPWARD TOWARD
EARLY AUG AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

KCOS AND KPUB...LATEST SIMULATIONS SUGGEST BAND OF STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE OVER KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING.
AFTERWARDS...SOME STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT
NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.  WINDS MAY HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT
KCOS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.

AT KALS... SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL OCCUR BOTH
DAYS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG TONIGHT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. --PGW--


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES AND HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
EXTEND BEYOND THE BURN SCARS WITH RECENT RAINFALLS AND MOIST
SOILS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. MAIN FACTOR AGAINST HEAVY
RAINS IS POSSIBLE LACK OF INSTABILITY TO GET STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ALOFT ALSO INCREASE SO STORMS MAY BE MOVE FASTER.
--PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-
093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 300223
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
823 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO PULL IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE AREAS. DEW POINTS REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS SEEN IN THE DRYING ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYING
ALOFT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE SEEN SPINNING NEAR THE CENTRAL COLORADO
AND UTAH BORDER. SPC MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH CAPES OVER
2000J/KG AND WEAK CIN.

TONIGHT...AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. AS OF 20Z...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
DEVELOP THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
20Z...MOVES EASTWARD. CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS
THE LATEST HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. THE HRRR HAS A FIRST LINE
CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z TO 22Z PM WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAKS REGION AND
THE RATON RIDGE. THEN...A SECOND AND STRONG ROUND OF CONVECTION
MOVES OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 01Z TO 03Z...WITH PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS GETTING CLOBBERED BY SOME STRONG
STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST...THEY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH
MOVES EASTWARDS OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT WATCH LOOKS
GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND MCS
OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS LATER INT HE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY FOR CONVECTION AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AS MCS MOVES INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING WITH EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 1.5KM
ABOVE THE SURFACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE STILL WELL OVER AN INCH
ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR. WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES
ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG ANY STORMS
CAN BECOME TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO GET STRONG CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...BUT A MORE PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. AM ALWAYS LEARY OF VERY MOIST SOUNDINGS WITH 1.5KM DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS..AS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY GET
PINNED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
WEST...SOME MODEST DRYING WILL OCCUR...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AFTER 06Z. MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST THU WILL BE A RATHER DOWN
DAY FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHERE COOL AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA ONCE AGAIN...WITH HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
UNDER AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...AXIS OF DEEPER INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTURN IN TSRA
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AS AIR MASS IS STILL RATHER
STABLE NEAR THE KS BORDER...THOUGH NW STEERING CURRENTS MAY ALLOW
A FEW WEAKENING TSRA TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN UNDER ANY STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FAIRLY HEALTHY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. TEMPWISE...UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING FRI/SAT...WITH TEMPS
WARMING MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF
SEASONAL VALUES.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN DRIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN
INTO MON...OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN INCREASED FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUN...THEN ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS LIFT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...WHICH MAY HELP PUSH MOUNTAIN TSRA ON TO THE PLAINS AS
WELL. SUSPECT CURRENT POPS FOR THE DAY 4-7 PROCEDURE MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO LOW AND WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST CYCLES. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CREEP UPWARD TOWARD
EARLY AUG AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

KCOS AND KPUB...LATEST SIMULATIONS SUGGEST BAND OF STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE OVER KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING.
AFTERWARDS...SOME STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT
NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.  WINDS MAY HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT
KCOS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.

AT KALS... SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL OCCUR BOTH
DAYS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG TONIGHT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. --PGW--


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES AND HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
EXTEND BEYOND THE BURN SCARS WITH RECENT RAINFALLS AND MOIST
SOILS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. MAIN FACTOR AGAINST HEAVY
RAINS IS POSSIBLE LACK OF INSTABILITY TO GET STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ALOFT ALSO INCREASE SO STORMS MAY BE MOVE FASTER.
--PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-
093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 292119
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE AREAS. DEW POINTS REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS SEEN IN THE DRYING ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYING
ALOFT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE SEEN SPINNING NEAR THE CENTRAL COLORADO
AND UTAH BORDER. SPC MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH CAPES OVER
2000J/KG AND WEAK CIN.

TONIGHT...AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. AS OF 20Z...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
DEVELOP THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
20Z...MOVES EASTWARD. CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS
THE LATEST HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. THE HRRR HAS A FIRST LINE
CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z TO 22Z PM WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAKS REGION AND
THE RATON RIDGE. THEN...A SECOND AND STRONG ROUND OF CONVECTION
MOVES OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 01Z TO 03Z...WITH PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS GETTING CLOBBERED BY SOME STRONG
STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST...THEY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH
MOVES EASTWARDS OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT WATCH LOOKS
GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND MCS
OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS LATER INT HE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY FOR CONVECTION AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AS MCS MOVES INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING WITH EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 1.5KM
ABOVE THE SURFACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE STILL WELL OVER AN INCH
ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR. WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES
ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG ANY STORMS
CAN BECOME TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO GET STRONG CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...BUT A MORE PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. AM ALWAYS LEARY OF VERY MOIST SOUNDINGS WITH 1.5KM DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS..AS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY GET
PINNED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
WEST...SOME MODEST DRYING WILL OCCUR...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AFTER 06Z. MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST THU WILL BE A RATHER DOWN
DAY FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHERE COOL AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA ONCE AGAIN...WITH HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
UNDER AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...AXIS OF DEEPER INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTURN IN TSRA
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AS AIR MASS IS STILL RATHER
STABLE NEAR THE KS BORDER...THOUGH NW STEERING CURRENTS MAY ALLOW
A FEW WEAKENING TSRA TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN UNDER ANY STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FAIRLY HEALTHY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. TEMPWISE...UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING FRI/SAT...WITH TEMPS
WARMING MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF
SEASONAL VALUES.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN DRIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN
INTO MON...OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN INCREASED FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUN...THEN ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS LIFT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...WHICH MAY HELP PUSH MOUNTAIN TSRA ON TO THE PLAINS AS
WELL. SUSPECT CURRENT POPS FOR THE DAY 4-7 PROCEDURE MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO LOW AND WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST CYCLES. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CREEP UPWARD TOWARD
EARLY AUG AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

KCOS AND KPUB...LATEST SIMULATIONS SUGGEST BAND OF STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE OVER KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING.
AFTERWARDS...SOME STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT
NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.  WINDS MAY HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT
KCOS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.

AT KALS... SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL OCCUR BOTH
DAYS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG TONIGHT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. --PGW--

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERN DISCUSSION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES AND HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL EXTEND BEYOND THE BURN SCARS WITH RECENT RAINFALLS AND MOIST
SOILS.   WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD.  MAIN FACTOR AGAINST HEAVY RAINS
IS POSSIBLE LACK OF INSTABILITY TO GET STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WINDS ALOFT ALSO INCREASE SO STORMS MAY BE MOVE FASTER. --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-
093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291805
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1205 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIKE
THE SOLUTIONS GIVEN BY THE 4KM ARW...4KM NMM AND HRRR WHICH
SUGGEST A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND REACHING THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY
EVENING. WV CLEARLY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. CONVECTION TENDS TO WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AS IT MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR
STRONGER STORMS ON THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

DURING THE EVENING...THETAE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW
REMAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CWA...AND MODELS TEND TO DEVELOP AN
MCS OVER NE COLORADO AND SE WYOMING. ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS ALONG
WEAK FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE FRONT OVER SW KANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO BACA COUNTY AND OTHER COUNTIES NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER.  LIKE CURRENT DAY 1 WPC HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
WHICH KEEPS REGION IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH MODERATE RISK TO THE
NORTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED
LAYER UP TO 400MB WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER AN INCH. LOWER
LAYERS COULD BECOME SATURATED WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES POSSIBLE
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION. WHEN SEE SATURATED LOWER LAYERS WITH
1.5KM DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...AM ALWAYS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING OVER
AND CLOSE TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. CURRENT SIMULATIONS SUGGEST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. --PGW--


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN WV
PLUME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN CO.  MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC DETAILS...WITH UPPER FORCING
STRONGER TODAY AS WAVE OVER WRN CO ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS
CO.  AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...AND EVEN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST
WILL MAINTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...QUITE MOIST FOR
THESE AREAS.  PRECIP WATERS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND .65 TO 1.0 ACROSS
THE MTS/VALLEYS...AND BETWEEN 1.0 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SO THE CLASSIC INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

THERE ARE ALWAYS CHALLENGES IN THE DETAILS...AND MODEL QPFS ARE NOT
ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH WHERE TO PUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.  THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IF FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND
UPPER LIFT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO.
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE ADJACENT
VALLEYS/PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TWO BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE COMING ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...WHILE A SECOND MAXIMA SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS
INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHERE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET UPGLIDES OVER
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH.  SO OVERALL...THIS SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY END UP WITH THE
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS.  THIS HEIGHTENED CONCERN AREA INCLUDES THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND PALMER DIVIDE.

HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS MORNING FROM WHAT THE
CONSENSUS MODELS SUGGESTED.  BUT WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HRRR...NAM12...AND RAP13 ALSO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IT TAKES A LITTLE
LONGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING TO THE EAST OF THE I-25 AND
CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION...WITH NSSL 4KM WRF
HOLDING THIS OFF UNTIL AFTER 03Z. TIMING VARIES SLIGHTLY WITH OTHER
HIGH RES MODELS...BUT OVERNIGHT APPEARS MCS WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHICH WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT...EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF THE CONCERNS FOCUS MORE ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  CAPE VALUES COULD ACHIEVE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEARS
ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND PRESENCE OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MEAN A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS WELL.  EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
COVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS REPORTS
OF STREAM FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OFF THE SANGRES OCCURRED
TONIGHT.  GREATEST THREAT MAY BE MORE ALONG THE VALLEY EDGES...BUT
REALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE
GIVEN THE SET UP. -KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO ISSUES AND TEMPERATURES ARE
PRIMARILY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY(INCLUDING
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL) FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED/EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEN...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM...PRIMARILY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS AND AREA BURN SCARS AFTER WEDNESDAY...AS PROJECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1.O TO 1.5 INCH RANGE
INTERACT WITH PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES. WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE NEEDED HIGHLIGHTS...
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS NEEDED.

FINALLY...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AT
THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND REACH THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO PUT IN
TAFS. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE NORTHERLY AT KCOS TONIGHT AND LIMIT
LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. COLD FRONT MAY REACH KCOS BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS LEAD TO
SATURATED SOILS IN MANY PLACES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.  WITH FORCING COMING IN LATER TODAY...COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THEN SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS WILL BE BURN SCARS...STEEP TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS (PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION). AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TONIGHT INTO THE FRONT RANGE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WARM RAIN PROCESSES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SEEMS MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AGAIN. MEANWHILE...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TO THE EAST OF I-25 WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH STREAM FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WATER FROM INTENSE RAINFALL FINDS ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DRAINAGES.  ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
TOWARDS MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THIS WATER

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-
093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PGW
AVIATION...PGW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
551 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN WV
PLUME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN CO.  MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC DETAILS...WITH UPPER FORCING
STRONGER TODAY AS WAVE OVER WRN CO ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS
CO.  AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...AND EVEN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST
WILL MAINTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...QUITE MOIST FOR
THESE AREAS.  PRECIP WATERS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND .65 TO 1.0 ACROSS
THE MTS/VALLEYS...AND BETWEEN 1.0 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SO THE CLASSIC INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

THERE ARE ALWAYS CHALLENGES IN THE DETAILS...AND MODEL QPFS ARE NOT
ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH WHERE TO PUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.  THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IF FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND
UPPER LIFT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO.
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE ADJACENT
VALLEYS/PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TWO BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE COMING ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...WHILE A SECOND MAXIMA SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS
INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHERE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET UPGLIDES OVER
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH.  SO OVERALL...THIS SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY END UP WITH THE
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS.  THIS HEIGHTENED CONCERN AREA INCLUDES THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND PALMER DIVIDE.

HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS MORNING FROM WHAT THE
CONSENSUS MODELS SUGGESTED.  BUT WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HRRR...NAM12...AND RAP13 ALSO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IT TAKES A LITTLE
LONGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING TO THE EAST OF THE I-25 AND
CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION...WITH NSSL 4KM WRF
HOLDING THIS OFF UNTIL AFTER 03Z. TIMING VARIES SLIGHTLY WITH OTHER
HIGH RES MODELS...BUT OVERNIGHT APPEARS MCS WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHICH WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT...EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF THE CONCERNS FOCUS MORE ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  CAPE VALUES COULD ACHIEVE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEARS
ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND PRESENCE OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MEAN A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS WELL.  EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
COVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS REPORTS
OF STREAM FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OFF THE SANGRES OCCURRED
TONIGHT.  GREATEST THREAT MAY BE MORE ALONG THE VALLEY EDGES...BUT
REALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE
GIVEN THE SET UP. -KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO ISSUES AND TEMPERATURES ARE
PRIMARILY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY(INCLUDING
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL) FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED/EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEN...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM...PRIMARILY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS AND AREA BURN SCARS AFTER WEDNESDAY...AS PROJECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1.O TO 1.5 INCH RANGE
INTERACT WITH PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES. WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE NEEDED HIGHLIGHTS...
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS NEEDED.

FINALLY...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING.  KALS HAS SEEN SOME
PATCHY IFR STRATUS EARLIER TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS OT THE EAST OF KCOS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING BUT BASED
ON LATEST SAT/FOG PRODUCTS IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF KCOS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS AFTER
20Z.  LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS IN +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE A
PREVAILING GROUP TO INDICATE A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.  TIMING WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS EVENT
UNFOLDS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE VFR
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR
TO EVEN PATCHY IFR RANGE TOWARDS MORNING.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KALS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS LEAD TO
SATURATED SOILS IN MANY PLACES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.  WITH FORCING COMING IN LATER TODAY...COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THEN SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS WILL BE BURN SCARS...STEEP TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS (PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION). AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TONIGHT INTO THE FRONT RANGE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WARM RAIN PROCESSES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SEEMS MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AGAIN. MEANWHILE...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TO THE EAST OF I-25 WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH STREAM FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WATER FROM INTENSE RAINFALL FINDS ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DRAINAGES.  ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
TOWARDS MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THIS WATER
ROUTES DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ058>071.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
551 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN WV
PLUME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN CO.  MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC DETAILS...WITH UPPER FORCING
STRONGER TODAY AS WAVE OVER WRN CO ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS
CO.  AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...AND EVEN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST
WILL MAINTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...QUITE MOIST FOR
THESE AREAS.  PRECIP WATERS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND .65 TO 1.0 ACROSS
THE MTS/VALLEYS...AND BETWEEN 1.0 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SO THE CLASSIC INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

THERE ARE ALWAYS CHALLENGES IN THE DETAILS...AND MODEL QPFS ARE NOT
ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH WHERE TO PUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.  THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IF FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND
UPPER LIFT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO.
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE ADJACENT
VALLEYS/PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TWO BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE COMING ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...WHILE A SECOND MAXIMA SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS
INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHERE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET UPGLIDES OVER
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH.  SO OVERALL...THIS SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY END UP WITH THE
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS.  THIS HEIGHTENED CONCERN AREA INCLUDES THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND PALMER DIVIDE.

HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS MORNING FROM WHAT THE
CONSENSUS MODELS SUGGESTED.  BUT WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HRRR...NAM12...AND RAP13 ALSO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IT TAKES A LITTLE
LONGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING TO THE EAST OF THE I-25 AND
CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION...WITH NSSL 4KM WRF
HOLDING THIS OFF UNTIL AFTER 03Z. TIMING VARIES SLIGHTLY WITH OTHER
HIGH RES MODELS...BUT OVERNIGHT APPEARS MCS WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHICH WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT...EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF THE CONCERNS FOCUS MORE ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  CAPE VALUES COULD ACHIEVE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEARS
ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND PRESENCE OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MEAN A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS WELL.  EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
COVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS REPORTS
OF STREAM FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OFF THE SANGRES OCCURRED
TONIGHT.  GREATEST THREAT MAY BE MORE ALONG THE VALLEY EDGES...BUT
REALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE
GIVEN THE SET UP. -KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO ISSUES AND TEMPERATURES ARE
PRIMARILY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY(INCLUDING
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL) FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED/EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEN...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM...PRIMARILY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS AND AREA BURN SCARS AFTER WEDNESDAY...AS PROJECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1.O TO 1.5 INCH RANGE
INTERACT WITH PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES. WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE NEEDED HIGHLIGHTS...
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS NEEDED.

FINALLY...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING.  KALS HAS SEEN SOME
PATCHY IFR STRATUS EARLIER TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS OT THE EAST OF KCOS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING BUT BASED
ON LATEST SAT/FOG PRODUCTS IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF KCOS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS AFTER
20Z.  LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS IN +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE A
PREVAILING GROUP TO INDICATE A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.  TIMING WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS EVENT
UNFOLDS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE VFR
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR
TO EVEN PATCHY IFR RANGE TOWARDS MORNING.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KALS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS LEAD TO
SATURATED SOILS IN MANY PLACES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.  WITH FORCING COMING IN LATER TODAY...COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THEN SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS WILL BE BURN SCARS...STEEP TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS (PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION). AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TONIGHT INTO THE FRONT RANGE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WARM RAIN PROCESSES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SEEMS MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AGAIN. MEANWHILE...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TO THE EAST OF I-25 WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH STREAM FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WATER FROM INTENSE RAINFALL FINDS ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DRAINAGES.  ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
TOWARDS MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THIS WATER
ROUTES DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ058>071.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. STARK

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT.
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING EL PASO...PUEBLO AND TELLER COUNTIES. AREAS
THAT DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAD SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES DO SHOW THE
EFFECTS OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STORMS IN HUERFANO COUNTY. BELIEVE
THAT ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA.  MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT.  BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.

MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR.  THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA.  WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.

THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL AT THE TAF SITES TODAY SO HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT. STILL TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL BE LOW SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE BY
12Z TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL THE TAF LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. STARK

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...STARK





000
FXUS65 KPUB 290517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. STARK

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT.
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING EL PASO...PUEBLO AND TELLER COUNTIES. AREAS
THAT DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAD SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES DO SHOW THE
EFFECTS OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STORMS IN HUERFANO COUNTY. BELIEVE
THAT ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA.  MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT.  BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.

MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR.  THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA.  WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.

THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL AT THE TAF SITES TODAY SO HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT. STILL TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL BE LOW SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE BY
12Z TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL THE TAF LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. STARK

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...STARK




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290337
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
937 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT.
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING EL PASO...PUEBLO AND TELLER COUNTIES. AREAS
THAT DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAD SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES DO SHOW THE
EFFECTS OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STORMS IN HUERFANO COUNTY. BELIEVE
THAT ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA.  MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT.  BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.

MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR.  THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA.  WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.

THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY ENDING BEFORE 04Z AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT
CONTINUING LATER AT KALS.  SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL SITE TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087-088-094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 290337
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
937 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT.
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING EL PASO...PUEBLO AND TELLER COUNTIES. AREAS
THAT DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAD SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES DO SHOW THE
EFFECTS OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STORMS IN HUERFANO COUNTY. BELIEVE
THAT ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA.  MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT.  BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.

MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR.  THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA.  WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.

THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY ENDING BEFORE 04Z AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT
CONTINUING LATER AT KALS.  SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL SITE TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087-088-094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 282038
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
238 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA.  MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT.  BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.

MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR.  THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA.  WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.

THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY ENDING BEFORE 04Z AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT
CONTINUING LATER AT KALS.  SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL SITE TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ064>068-
072>089-093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 282038
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
238 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA.  MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT.  BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.

MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR.  THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA.  WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.

THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY ENDING BEFORE 04Z AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT
CONTINUING LATER AT KALS.  SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL SITE TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ064>068-
072>089-093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281742
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS THIS AFTERNOON. KCOS AND KPUB COULD SEE TSTMS END BEFORE
06Z...BUT MAY CONTINUE IN THE KALS A LITTLE LONGER. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS. LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN
THE AREA OF KCOS AND KPUB BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT THE TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281742
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS THIS AFTERNOON. KCOS AND KPUB COULD SEE TSTMS END BEFORE
06Z...BUT MAY CONTINUE IN THE KALS A LITTLE LONGER. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS. LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN
THE AREA OF KCOS AND KPUB BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT THE TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281623
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 281623
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ064>068-072>089-093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ064>068-072>089-093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280538
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RADAR DATA INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH LATEST SCANS INDICATING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. WITH SOME POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING...WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH NATURELY
EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.

00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING.  THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS.  OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.  BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH.  THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.

THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN FALL AND VFR CIGS AT BOTH COS AND PUB.
RAIN TO END ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR WEATHER
EXPECTED AS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093-
094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280538
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RADAR DATA INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH LATEST SCANS INDICATING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. WITH SOME POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING...WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH NATURELY
EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.

00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING.  THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS.  OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.  BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH.  THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.

THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN FALL AND VFR CIGS AT BOTH COS AND PUB.
RAIN TO END ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR WEATHER
EXPECTED AS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093-
094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 280129
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.

00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING.  THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS.  OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.  BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH.  THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.

THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL CONTINUE AT OR IN THE VCNTY OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. HEAVY RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE
AND COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL
AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093-
094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 272023
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
223 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.

00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING.  THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS.  OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.  BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH.  THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.

THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL CONTINUE AT OR IN THE VCNTY OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. HEAVY RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE
AND COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL
AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079-
080-087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 272023
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
223 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.

00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING.  THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS.  OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.  BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH.  THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.

THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL CONTINUE AT OR IN THE VCNTY OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. HEAVY RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE
AND COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL
AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079-
080-087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 271732
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DELAYED
PCPN A LITTLE LONGER IN MAINLY ERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR AND NR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THEY WL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KALS
BY MIDAFTERNOON...AND MAY MAKE IT TO KPUB BY EVENING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES. PCPN CHANCES AT THE
TERMINAL SITES WL LIKELY END BY 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-
087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271732
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DELAYED
PCPN A LITTLE LONGER IN MAINLY ERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR AND NR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THEY WL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KALS
BY MIDAFTERNOON...AND MAY MAKE IT TO KPUB BY EVENING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES. PCPN CHANCES AT THE
TERMINAL SITES WL LIKELY END BY 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-
087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 271554
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
954 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DELAYED
PCPN A LITTLE LONGER IN MAINLY ERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME PATCHY
VFR TO MVFR STRATUS AND -SHRA THIS MORNING ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  THESE COULD AFFECT THE KCOS AND
KPUB TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
AT BOTH TAF SITES.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF INTO
THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR TO EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. KALS
WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THOSE WHICH FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
03Z FOR THE TERMINALS THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SOUTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
MON. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-
087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271554
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
954 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DELAYED
PCPN A LITTLE LONGER IN MAINLY ERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME PATCHY
VFR TO MVFR STRATUS AND -SHRA THIS MORNING ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  THESE COULD AFFECT THE KCOS AND
KPUB TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
AT BOTH TAF SITES.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF INTO
THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR TO EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. KALS
WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THOSE WHICH FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
03Z FOR THE TERMINALS THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SOUTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
MON. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-
087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 271043
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME PATCHY
VFR TO MVFR STRATUS AND -SHRA THIS MORNING ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  THESE COULD AFFECT THE KCOS AND
KPUB TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
AT BOTH TAF SITES.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF INTO
THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR TO EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. KALS
WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THOSE WHICH FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
03Z FOR THE TERMINALS THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SOUTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
MON. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR COZ076>078-081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271043
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME PATCHY
VFR TO MVFR STRATUS AND -SHRA THIS MORNING ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  THESE COULD AFFECT THE KCOS AND
KPUB TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
AT BOTH TAF SITES.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF INTO
THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR TO EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. KALS
WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THOSE WHICH FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
03Z FOR THE TERMINALS THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SOUTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
MON. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR COZ076>078-081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 270522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY...

FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL TOMORROW...SEE THE
EARLIER AFD UPDATE AT NOON. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...STILL SOME
CONCERN...MAINLY FOR THE WALDO BURN SCAR...AS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA THROUGH 04Z OR SO. TEMPS WORKED OUT NICELY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE ERN PLAINS. THE MONSOON PLUME
IS ORIENTED W-E ACROSS CO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE CW AROUND
THE RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 12Z OVER THE PALMER DVD. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEENTHE
GFS AND NAM...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS QPF.
OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTING OF A WIDESPREAD MDT-HIGH PRECIP
EVENT. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
FOR A FLOODING EVENT IS IN PLACE AND IT LIKELY TRUMPS ANY
PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION. THE MAIN UNKNOWN IS HOW INTENSE PRECIP
WILL BE GIVEN THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CONSEQUENTIAL
STABILIZATION DUE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUDS. LATER HIGH RES
SOLUTIONS SHOULD SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE QUALITY OF CONVECTION
TOMORROW. THE ONE GIVEN IS THAT IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS. A NICE BREAK
FORM THE HEAT...HOPEFULLY THE RAINS WILL COME SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT
PROBLEMS WILL BE MINIMIZED...BUT EVERYONE SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE WEATHER TOMORROW. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED. AN BROAD UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA WL STILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE
PERIOD. MONSOON MOISTURE WL BE STREAMING OVR THE AREA...AND THE LOW
LEVELS WL BE MOIST OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHERE DEW POINTS WL BE IN
THE 50S. HEAVY RAIN WL BE A THREAT EACH DAY AND ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED...DEPENDING ON THE DAILY THREAT AREA AND
PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS WL
SEE THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES...BUT STORMS WL ALSO BE FOUND OVR THE
SERN PLAINS.  ON TUE A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR THE
AREA...POSSIBLY ENHANCING PCPN CHANCES OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  MODELS
STILL SUGGESTING AN MCS DEVELOPING AND KEEPING CONVECTION AND THE
THREAT FOR HVY RAIN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO WED
MORNING.  WITH A MORE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER THROUGH THE WEEK AND WL BE BELOW
AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED
WITH AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS TOMORROW. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE WEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
WITH THESE STORMS SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. VFR CIGS
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVY RAIN...GENERALLY AFT 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ072>089-093-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 270522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY...

FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL TOMORROW...SEE THE
EARLIER AFD UPDATE AT NOON. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...STILL SOME
CONCERN...MAINLY FOR THE WALDO BURN SCAR...AS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA THROUGH 04Z OR SO. TEMPS WORKED OUT NICELY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE ERN PLAINS. THE MONSOON PLUME
IS ORIENTED W-E ACROSS CO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE CW AROUND
THE RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 12Z OVER THE PALMER DVD. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEENTHE
GFS AND NAM...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS QPF.
OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTING OF A WIDESPREAD MDT-HIGH PRECIP
EVENT. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
FOR A FLOODING EVENT IS IN PLACE AND IT LIKELY TRUMPS ANY
PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION. THE MAIN UNKNOWN IS HOW INTENSE PRECIP
WILL BE GIVEN THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CONSEQUENTIAL
STABILIZATION DUE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUDS. LATER HIGH RES
SOLUTIONS SHOULD SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE QUALITY OF CONVECTION
TOMORROW. THE ONE GIVEN IS THAT IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS. A NICE BREAK
FORM THE HEAT...HOPEFULLY THE RAINS WILL COME SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT
PROBLEMS WILL BE MINIMIZED...BUT EVERYONE SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE WEATHER TOMORROW. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED. AN BROAD UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA WL STILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE
PERIOD. MONSOON MOISTURE WL BE STREAMING OVR THE AREA...AND THE LOW
LEVELS WL BE MOIST OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHERE DEW POINTS WL BE IN
THE 50S. HEAVY RAIN WL BE A THREAT EACH DAY AND ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED...DEPENDING ON THE DAILY THREAT AREA AND
PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS WL
SEE THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES...BUT STORMS WL ALSO BE FOUND OVR THE
SERN PLAINS.  ON TUE A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR THE
AREA...POSSIBLY ENHANCING PCPN CHANCES OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  MODELS
STILL SUGGESTING AN MCS DEVELOPING AND KEEPING CONVECTION AND THE
THREAT FOR HVY RAIN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO WED
MORNING.  WITH A MORE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER THROUGH THE WEEK AND WL BE BELOW
AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED
WITH AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS TOMORROW. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE WEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
WITH THESE STORMS SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. VFR CIGS
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVY RAIN...GENERALLY AFT 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ072>089-093-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities