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000
FXUS65 KPUB 281134
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE FOUND ACRS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. H7 TEMPS
TODAY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA WL RANGE FROM ABOUT 5C TO 10C.  HIGH
TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS. THE
RECORD HIGH FOR COLO SPGS IS 73 SET IN 1998...FOR PUEBLO IS 75 SET
IN 1998.  THE HIGH VALLEYS WL MOSTLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.

IT WILL BE WINDY OVR THE MTNS AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  WRF MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS FOR TONIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
DID SHOW STABLE LAYER AROUND MTN TOP...WITH A PERIOD OF REVERSE
SHEAR THIS EVENING. DURING THIS TIME THE WRF SHOWS A SMALL PORTION
OF THE SRN SANGRES NR THE NM BORDER...POSSIBLY REACHING HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.  FOR NOW WL JUST SHOW STRONG WINDS IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.
WESTERLY WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY NR THE MTNS AND OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

...WINDY TO VERY WINDY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG JET STREAM TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WESTERLY H7 FLOW PROGGED BETWEEN 25-40 KTS...AND WITH GOOD
MIXING EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A
FEW POSSIBLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND
DAMAGING DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WESTERLY H7-H6 WINDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 50-65KTS...ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING MT TOP
INVERSION AND REVERSE SHEAR THROUGH 12Z-15Z SUN...BEFORE WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AS JET CORE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
PLENTY OF TIME BEFORE THE EXPECTED ONSET...WILL WAIT TO SEE IF LATER
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS STRONG WIND POTENTIAL BEFORE
ISSUING ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 70 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PASSING JET CORE ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT TO OOZE INTO EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MODERATING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BRISK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF THE COLDEST AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND HAVE STAYED AT OR BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WHERE
SOUNDING DATA INDICATING STRONG INVERSIONS HOLDING THROUGH THE
DAY.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST WEAKENS TO AN OPEN
WAVE WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTDVD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY SW TO W WINDS IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR
THE MTNS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281134
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE FOUND ACRS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. H7 TEMPS
TODAY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA WL RANGE FROM ABOUT 5C TO 10C.  HIGH
TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS. THE
RECORD HIGH FOR COLO SPGS IS 73 SET IN 1998...FOR PUEBLO IS 75 SET
IN 1998.  THE HIGH VALLEYS WL MOSTLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.

IT WILL BE WINDY OVR THE MTNS AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  WRF MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS FOR TONIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
DID SHOW STABLE LAYER AROUND MTN TOP...WITH A PERIOD OF REVERSE
SHEAR THIS EVENING. DURING THIS TIME THE WRF SHOWS A SMALL PORTION
OF THE SRN SANGRES NR THE NM BORDER...POSSIBLY REACHING HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.  FOR NOW WL JUST SHOW STRONG WINDS IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.
WESTERLY WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY NR THE MTNS AND OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

...WINDY TO VERY WINDY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG JET STREAM TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WESTERLY H7 FLOW PROGGED BETWEEN 25-40 KTS...AND WITH GOOD
MIXING EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A
FEW POSSIBLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND
DAMAGING DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WESTERLY H7-H6 WINDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 50-65KTS...ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING MT TOP
INVERSION AND REVERSE SHEAR THROUGH 12Z-15Z SUN...BEFORE WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AS JET CORE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
PLENTY OF TIME BEFORE THE EXPECTED ONSET...WILL WAIT TO SEE IF LATER
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS STRONG WIND POTENTIAL BEFORE
ISSUING ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 70 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PASSING JET CORE ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT TO OOZE INTO EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MODERATING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BRISK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF THE COLDEST AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND HAVE STAYED AT OR BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WHERE
SOUNDING DATA INDICATING STRONG INVERSIONS HOLDING THROUGH THE
DAY.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST WEAKENS TO AN OPEN
WAVE WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTDVD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY SW TO W WINDS IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR
THE MTNS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280543
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1043 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LURKING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
COLORADO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING GREATLY HINDERED TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...WHILE AREAS WEST OF I-25
WARMED QUICKLY. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVED ON...TEMPS JUMPED UP INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE THANKSGIVING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WIND
GAPS...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REFLECT A WARM BELT
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. FOR FRIDAY...INTERMITTENT
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW TEMPS AT FIRST FOR SOME AREAS...BUT WESTERLY
WINDS AND CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

...VERY WARM AND WINDY SAT THEN FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
SUN...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...THE WX WILL BE
ACTIVE BOTH SAT AND SUN. A STRONG JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48H PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20-40G50 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND 15 TO 30 MPH IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL LIKELY GET WINDY OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH G30 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS
WITH 60S IN EL PASO COUNTY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUITE WARM IN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS FRI NITE AND SAT NITE.

ON SUNDAY...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. AS TYPICAL...WITH
STRONG DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSING...TRYING TO FIGURE WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IS DIFFICULT. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM START TO THE
DAY ALL AREAS SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM PUEBLO
DOWN TO THE NM BORDER AND 60S EXTENDING OUT TO BACA COUNTY. OVER EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE COOL FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH EARLIER AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO NO PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS SUN
NITE...AND WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS. A TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER CANADIAN COOL
FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. WHAT THIS ALL
MEANS IS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE CONTDVD
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED. WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE WINDY PERIODS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

I SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE REALLY IS NOT TOO MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT A
BIT UNSETTLED...ALBEIT NOT ALL THAT UNSETTLED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE THREE TAF
SITES. THE MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE STRENGTHENING W WINDS
ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MDT TB ALONG AND E OF THE CREST OF THE
WETS...SANGRES AND RAMPART RANGE TODAY. WINDS AT RIDGE TOP WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND TB COULD BE SVR AS MTN WAVE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AN EVEN STRONGER MT WAVE
EVENT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 280543
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1043 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LURKING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
COLORADO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING GREATLY HINDERED TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...WHILE AREAS WEST OF I-25
WARMED QUICKLY. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVED ON...TEMPS JUMPED UP INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE THANKSGIVING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WIND
GAPS...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REFLECT A WARM BELT
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. FOR FRIDAY...INTERMITTENT
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW TEMPS AT FIRST FOR SOME AREAS...BUT WESTERLY
WINDS AND CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

...VERY WARM AND WINDY SAT THEN FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
SUN...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...THE WX WILL BE
ACTIVE BOTH SAT AND SUN. A STRONG JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48H PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20-40G50 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND 15 TO 30 MPH IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL LIKELY GET WINDY OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH G30 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS
WITH 60S IN EL PASO COUNTY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUITE WARM IN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS FRI NITE AND SAT NITE.

ON SUNDAY...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. AS TYPICAL...WITH
STRONG DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSING...TRYING TO FIGURE WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IS DIFFICULT. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM START TO THE
DAY ALL AREAS SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM PUEBLO
DOWN TO THE NM BORDER AND 60S EXTENDING OUT TO BACA COUNTY. OVER EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE COOL FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH EARLIER AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO NO PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS SUN
NITE...AND WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS. A TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER CANADIAN COOL
FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. WHAT THIS ALL
MEANS IS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE CONTDVD
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED. WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE WINDY PERIODS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

I SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE REALLY IS NOT TOO MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT A
BIT UNSETTLED...ALBEIT NOT ALL THAT UNSETTLED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE THREE TAF
SITES. THE MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE STRENGTHENING W WINDS
ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MDT TB ALONG AND E OF THE CREST OF THE
WETS...SANGRES AND RAMPART RANGE TODAY. WINDS AT RIDGE TOP WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND TB COULD BE SVR AS MTN WAVE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AN EVEN STRONGER MT WAVE
EVENT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 272203
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
303 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LURKING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
COLORADO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING GREATLY HINDERED TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...WHILE AREAS WEST OF I-25
WARMED QUICKLY. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVED ON...TEMPS JUMPED UP INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE THANKSGIVING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WIND
GAPS...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REFLECT A WARM BELT
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. FOR FRIDAY...INTERMITTENT
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW TEMPS AT FIRST FOR SOME AREAS...BUT WESTERLY
WINDS AND CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

...VERY WARM AND WINDY SAT THEN FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
SUN...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...THE WX WILL BE
ACTIVE BOTH SAT AND SUN. A STRONG JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48H PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20-40G50 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND 15 TO 30 MPH IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL LIKELY GET WINDY OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH G30 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS
WITH 60S IN EL PASO COUNTY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUITE WARM IN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS FRI NITE AND SAT NITE.

ON SUNDAY...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. AS TYPICAL...WITH
STRONG DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSING...TRYING TO FIGURE WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IS DIFFICULT. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM START TO THE
DAY ALL AREAS SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM PUEBLO
DOWN TO THE NM BORDER AND 60S EXTENDING OUT TO BACA COUNTY. OVER EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE COOL FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH EARLIER AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO NO PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS SUN
NITE...AND WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS. A TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER CANADIAN COOL
FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. WHAT THIS ALL
MEANS IS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE CONTDVD
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED. WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE WINDY PERIODS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

I SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE REALLY IS NOT TOO MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT A
BIT UNSETTLED...ALBEIT NOT ALL THAT UNSETTLED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
OCNL WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS FORECAST AS WELL ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 272203
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
303 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LURKING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
COLORADO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING GREATLY HINDERED TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...WHILE AREAS WEST OF I-25
WARMED QUICKLY. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVED ON...TEMPS JUMPED UP INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE THANKSGIVING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WIND
GAPS...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REFLECT A WARM BELT
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. FOR FRIDAY...INTERMITTENT
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW TEMPS AT FIRST FOR SOME AREAS...BUT WESTERLY
WINDS AND CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

...VERY WARM AND WINDY SAT THEN FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
SUN...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...THE WX WILL BE
ACTIVE BOTH SAT AND SUN. A STRONG JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48H PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20-40G50 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND 15 TO 30 MPH IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL LIKELY GET WINDY OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH G30 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS
WITH 60S IN EL PASO COUNTY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUITE WARM IN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS FRI NITE AND SAT NITE.

ON SUNDAY...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. AS TYPICAL...WITH
STRONG DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSING...TRYING TO FIGURE WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IS DIFFICULT. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM START TO THE
DAY ALL AREAS SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM PUEBLO
DOWN TO THE NM BORDER AND 60S EXTENDING OUT TO BACA COUNTY. OVER EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE COOL FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH EARLIER AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO NO PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS SUN
NITE...AND WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS. A TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER CANADIAN COOL
FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. WHAT THIS ALL
MEANS IS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE CONTDVD
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED. WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE WINDY PERIODS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

I SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE REALLY IS NOT TOO MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT A
BIT UNSETTLED...ALBEIT NOT ALL THAT UNSETTLED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
OCNL WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS FORECAST AS WELL ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271650
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
950 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...AND TO
INCORPORATE THE LATEST OBS DATA. DROPPED MAX TEMPS UP TO 8F RIGHT
ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY TO
LAMAR. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MAX TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.  WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE FOUND OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK THAT THE HIGH
CLOUDS WL BE VARIABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW
THICK THEY WL BE THRU THE DAY.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST THICKER
AND LONGER LASTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVR AND NR THE ERN MTNS TODAY.
THE CONCERN IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WL HAMPER WARMING. ALSO...MIXING
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE LIMITED OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...WL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER
IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TONIGHT
IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS NR THE ERN MTNS AND ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS WL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE DUE WRLY SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND MILD TO WARM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW PLATTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH
COMPUTER MODELS THEN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

RECENT GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT A BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO LATER TUESDAY BEFORE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA FROM
TUESDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND DGEX
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A MORE MOIST ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS).

IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1040 MB+ SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY)
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH THE ECWMF SUGGESTING STRONGER
COOLING THAN THE GFS MODEL FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE DEPICTED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOW GRADE
PRIMARILY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
COOLEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY. FINALLY...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. OCNL WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE INTO THIS EVENING. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271650
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
950 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...AND TO
INCORPORATE THE LATEST OBS DATA. DROPPED MAX TEMPS UP TO 8F RIGHT
ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY TO
LAMAR. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MAX TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.  WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE FOUND OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK THAT THE HIGH
CLOUDS WL BE VARIABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW
THICK THEY WL BE THRU THE DAY.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST THICKER
AND LONGER LASTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVR AND NR THE ERN MTNS TODAY.
THE CONCERN IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WL HAMPER WARMING. ALSO...MIXING
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE LIMITED OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...WL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER
IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TONIGHT
IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS NR THE ERN MTNS AND ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS WL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE DUE WRLY SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND MILD TO WARM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW PLATTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH
COMPUTER MODELS THEN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

RECENT GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT A BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO LATER TUESDAY BEFORE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA FROM
TUESDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND DGEX
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A MORE MOIST ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS).

IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1040 MB+ SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY)
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH THE ECWMF SUGGESTING STRONGER
COOLING THAN THE GFS MODEL FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE DEPICTED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOW GRADE
PRIMARILY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
COOLEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY. FINALLY...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. OCNL WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE INTO THIS EVENING. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 271159
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MAX TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.  WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE FOUND OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK THAT THE HIGH
CLOUDS WL BE VARIABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW
THICK THEY WL BE THRU THE DAY.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST THICKER
AND LONGER LASTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVR AND NR THE ERN MTNS TODAY.
THE CONCERN IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WL HAMPER WARMING. ALSO...MIXING
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE LIMITED OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...WL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER
IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TONIGHT
IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS NR THE ERN MTNS AND ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS WL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE DUE WRLY SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND MILD TO WARM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW PLATTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH
COMPUTER MODELS THEN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

RECENT GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT A BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO LATER TUESDAY BEFORE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA FROM
TUESDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND DGEX
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A MORE MOIST ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS).

IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1040 MB+ SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY)
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH THE ECWMF SUGGESTING STRONGER
COOLING THAN THE GFS MODEL FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE DEPICTED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOW GRADE
PRIMARILY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
COOLEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY. FINALLY...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271159
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MAX TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.  WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE FOUND OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK THAT THE HIGH
CLOUDS WL BE VARIABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW
THICK THEY WL BE THRU THE DAY.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST THICKER
AND LONGER LASTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVR AND NR THE ERN MTNS TODAY.
THE CONCERN IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WL HAMPER WARMING. ALSO...MIXING
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE LIMITED OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...WL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER
IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TONIGHT
IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS NR THE ERN MTNS AND ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS WL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE DUE WRLY SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND MILD TO WARM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW PLATTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH
COMPUTER MODELS THEN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

RECENT GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT A BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO LATER TUESDAY BEFORE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA FROM
TUESDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND DGEX
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A MORE MOIST ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS).

IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1040 MB+ SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY)
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH THE ECWMF SUGGESTING STRONGER
COOLING THAN THE GFS MODEL FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE DEPICTED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOW GRADE
PRIMARILY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
COOLEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY. FINALLY...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 270558
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1058 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE HIGHS
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR THU ALONG WITH WIND AND
SKY FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY
ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL FORECAST INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR KCOS
AND 50S FOR KPUB...OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MOS
FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN WAS 10-15 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THE WED
HIGHS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE SFC WINDS...IF THEY STAY LIGHT AND FROM THE S-SE THAN WE
WILL NOT MIX AND WILL END UP ON THE COOL SIDE. THE GFS PROGS MORE
WRLY FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS...AND SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM HINT AT THIS AS WELL. KPUB
CERTAINLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING THAN KCOS...WHERE THE
MORNING WAVE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL KEEP KCOS FROM REACHING ITS POTENTIAL. A BLANKET
REDUCTION OF 5-7 DEGREES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGE TOP WINDS OVER THE
RAMPARTS AND NORTHERN SANGRES WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FROM 12Z-18Z
THU...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF MDT TB GOING OVER THE LEE OF THE RANGES AS
MT WAVES PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT OVER THE ERN
RANGES WILL CONTINUE TO GET STRONGER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TB DEVELOPING BY THE WEEKEND. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 270502
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1002 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE HIGHS
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR WED ALONG WITH WIND AND
SKY FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY
ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL FORECAST INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR KCOS
AND 50S FOR KPUB...OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MOS
FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN WAS 10-15 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THE WED
HIGHS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE SFC WINDS...IF THEY STAY LIGHT AND FROM THE S-SE THAN WE
WILL NOT MIX AND WILL END UP ON THE COOL SIDE. THE GFS PROGS MORE
WRLY FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS...AND SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM HINT AT THIS AS WELL. KPUB
CERTAINLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING THAN KCOS...WHERE THE
MORNING WAVE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL KEEP KCOS FROM REACHING ITS POTENTIAL. A BLANKET
REDUCTION OF 5-7 DEGREES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 270502
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1002 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE HIGHS
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR WED ALONG WITH WIND AND
SKY FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY
ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL FORECAST INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR KCOS
AND 50S FOR KPUB...OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MOS
FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN WAS 10-15 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THE WED
HIGHS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE SFC WINDS...IF THEY STAY LIGHT AND FROM THE S-SE THAN WE
WILL NOT MIX AND WILL END UP ON THE COOL SIDE. THE GFS PROGS MORE
WRLY FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS...AND SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM HINT AT THIS AS WELL. KPUB
CERTAINLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING THAN KCOS...WHERE THE
MORNING WAVE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL KEEP KCOS FROM REACHING ITS POTENTIAL. A BLANKET
REDUCTION OF 5-7 DEGREES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 270502 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1002 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE HIGHS
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR THU ALONG WITH WIND AND
SKY FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY
ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL FORECAST INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR KCOS
AND 50S FOR KPUB...OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MOS
FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN WAS 10-15 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THE WED
HIGHS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE SFC WINDS...IF THEY STAY LIGHT AND FROM THE S-SE THAN WE
WILL NOT MIX AND WILL END UP ON THE COOL SIDE. THE GFS PROGS MORE
WRLY FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS...AND SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM HINT AT THIS AS WELL. KPUB
CERTAINLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING THAN KCOS...WHERE THE
MORNING WAVE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL KEEP KCOS FROM REACHING ITS POTENTIAL. A BLANKET
REDUCTION OF 5-7 DEGREES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 270502 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1002 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE HIGHS
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR THU ALONG WITH WIND AND
SKY FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY
ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL FORECAST INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR KCOS
AND 50S FOR KPUB...OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MOS
FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN WAS 10-15 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THE WED
HIGHS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE SFC WINDS...IF THEY STAY LIGHT AND FROM THE S-SE THAN WE
WILL NOT MIX AND WILL END UP ON THE COOL SIDE. THE GFS PROGS MORE
WRLY FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS...AND SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM HINT AT THIS AS WELL. KPUB
CERTAINLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING THAN KCOS...WHERE THE
MORNING WAVE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL KEEP KCOS FROM REACHING ITS POTENTIAL. A BLANKET
REDUCTION OF 5-7 DEGREES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 262337
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
437 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 262337
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
437 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 262211
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS. A
FEW LOWER CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE THE PEAKS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS UNTIL 01Z-03Z...BEFORE DRIER AIR BRINGS
CLEARING SKIES TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THU.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 262211
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS. A
FEW LOWER CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE THE PEAKS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS UNTIL 01Z-03Z...BEFORE DRIER AIR BRINGS
CLEARING SKIES TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THU.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261847
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1147 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

REMOVED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED MOST LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS SLOW TO CLEAR OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEP LOWER CLOUDS PINNED SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. STARTING TO SEE SOME THINNING IN LATEST VIS SAT PIC...SO
WILL BE OPTIMISTIC THAT CLOUDS CLEAR MOST OF THE COS METRO AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. DID ADJUST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGF LOWER FROM PUEBLO
INTO COLORADO SPRINGS AS LIMITED MIXING WILL HOLD READINGS BACK
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ONCE AGAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY.

AS OF 4 AM MST...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT NOTING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES...VARIABLE CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME
DATA SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW(GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE) WILL BE NOTED OVER SECTIONS
OF CHAFFEE AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THESE LOCATIONS TO
19Z TODAY.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

OVERALL...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR LATE NOVEMBER
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY THERE WL BE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA WITH
AN UPR RIDGE BEING OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WL BE A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THU...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY THU NIGHT AND REMAINS THAT
WAY THRU SAT.  THE WX DURING THIS TIME WL BE DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPR TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES
ON SUNDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO SUN AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HIGH TEMPS ON
SUN.  FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER SUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WL STILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE ACRS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR SUN ACRS THE AREA.  SUN
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE.  THE GFS
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE CENTRAL CO
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA. WL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
MON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE.  THE ECMWF HAS A
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THEN INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS
SYSTEM SENDS A FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS HAS A TROF
EXTENDING FROM WRN MT TO OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS BRINGS
INCREASING MSTR TO THE CONTDVD AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN.  FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME MTN PCPN AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AT KALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AT KCOS...PERSISTENT SE WIND KEEPING MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH 1710Z VIS SAT PIC SUGGESTS SOME DISSIPATION
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS IN
PLACE UNTIL 19Z WITH CLEARING TOWARD 20Z AS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
BECOME MORE S-SW. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON
ON INTO THE NIGHT.

KPUB...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHT.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE PEAKS NORTH OF
7BM UNTIL 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 261847
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1147 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

REMOVED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED MOST LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS SLOW TO CLEAR OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEP LOWER CLOUDS PINNED SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. STARTING TO SEE SOME THINNING IN LATEST VIS SAT PIC...SO
WILL BE OPTIMISTIC THAT CLOUDS CLEAR MOST OF THE COS METRO AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. DID ADJUST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGF LOWER FROM PUEBLO
INTO COLORADO SPRINGS AS LIMITED MIXING WILL HOLD READINGS BACK
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ONCE AGAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY.

AS OF 4 AM MST...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT NOTING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES...VARIABLE CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME
DATA SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW(GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE) WILL BE NOTED OVER SECTIONS
OF CHAFFEE AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THESE LOCATIONS TO
19Z TODAY.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

OVERALL...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR LATE NOVEMBER
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY THERE WL BE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA WITH
AN UPR RIDGE BEING OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WL BE A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THU...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY THU NIGHT AND REMAINS THAT
WAY THRU SAT.  THE WX DURING THIS TIME WL BE DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPR TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES
ON SUNDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO SUN AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HIGH TEMPS ON
SUN.  FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER SUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WL STILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE ACRS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR SUN ACRS THE AREA.  SUN
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE.  THE GFS
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE CENTRAL CO
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA. WL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
MON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE.  THE ECMWF HAS A
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THEN INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS
SYSTEM SENDS A FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS HAS A TROF
EXTENDING FROM WRN MT TO OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS BRINGS
INCREASING MSTR TO THE CONTDVD AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN.  FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME MTN PCPN AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AT KALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AT KCOS...PERSISTENT SE WIND KEEPING MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH 1710Z VIS SAT PIC SUGGESTS SOME DISSIPATION
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS IN
PLACE UNTIL 19Z WITH CLEARING TOWARD 20Z AS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
BECOME MORE S-SW. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON
ON INTO THE NIGHT.

KPUB...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHT.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE PEAKS NORTH OF
7BM UNTIL 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS SLOW TO CLEAR OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEP LOWER CLOUDS PINNED SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. STARTING TO SEE SOME THINNING IN LATEST VIS SAT PIC...SO
WILL BE OPTIMISTIC THAT CLOUDS CLEAR MOST OF THE COS METRO AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. DID ADJUST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGF LOWER FROM PUEBLO
INTO COLORADO SPRINGS AS LIMITED MIXING WILL HOLD READINGS BACK
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ONCE AGAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY.

AS OF 4 AM MST...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT NOTING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES...VARIABLE CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME
DATA SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW(GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE) WILL BE NOTED OVER SECTIONS
OF CHAFFEE AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THESE LOCATIONS TO
19Z TODAY.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

OVERALL...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR LATE NOVEMBER
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY THERE WL BE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA WITH
AN UPR RIDGE BEING OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WL BE A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THU...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY THU NIGHT AND REMAINS THAT
WAY THRU SAT.  THE WX DURING THIS TIME WL BE DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPR TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES
ON SUNDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO SUN AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HIGH TEMPS ON
SUN.  FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER SUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WL STILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE ACRS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR SUN ACRS THE AREA.  SUN
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE.  THE GFS
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE CENTRAL CO
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA. WL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
MON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE.  THE ECMWF HAS A
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THEN INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS
SYSTEM SENDS A FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS HAS A TROF
EXTENDING FROM WRN MT TO OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS BRINGS
INCREASING MSTR TO THE CONTDVD AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN.  FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME MTN PCPN AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AT KALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AT KCOS...PERSISTENT SE WIND KEEPING MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH 1710Z VIS SAT PIC SUGGESTS SOME DISSIPATION
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS IN
PLACE UNTIL 19Z WITH CLEARING TOWARD 20Z AS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
BECOME MORE S-SW. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON
ON INTO THE NIGHT.

KPUB...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHT.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE PEAKS NORTH OF
7BM UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261138
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
438 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ONCE AGAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY.

AS OF 4 AM MST...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT NOTING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES...VARIABLE CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME
DATA SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW(GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE) WILL BE NOTED OVER SECTIONS
OF CHAFFEE AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THESE LOCATIONS TO
19Z TODAY.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

OVERALL...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR LATE NOVEMBER
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY THERE WL BE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA WITH
AN UPR RIDGE BEING OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WL BE A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THU...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY THU NIGHT AND REMAINS THAT
WAY THRU SAT.  THE WX DURING THIS TIME WL BE DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPR TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES
ON SUNDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO SUN AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HIGH TEMPS ON
SUN.  FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER SUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WL STILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE ACRS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR SUN ACRS THE AREA.  SUN
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE.  THE GFS
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE CENTRAL CO
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA. WL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
MON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE.  THE ECMWF HAS A
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THEN INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS
SYSTEM SENDS A FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS HAS A TROF
EXTENDING FROM WRN MT TO OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS BRINGS
INCREASING MSTR TO THE CONTDVD AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN.  FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME MTN PCPN AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.  ALSO...LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION.

FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...OVER PRIMARILY NORTHERN
SECTIONS...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 261138
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
438 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ONCE AGAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY.

AS OF 4 AM MST...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT NOTING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES...VARIABLE CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME
DATA SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW(GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE) WILL BE NOTED OVER SECTIONS
OF CHAFFEE AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THESE LOCATIONS TO
19Z TODAY.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

OVERALL...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR LATE NOVEMBER
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY THERE WL BE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA WITH
AN UPR RIDGE BEING OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WL BE A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THU...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY THU NIGHT AND REMAINS THAT
WAY THRU SAT.  THE WX DURING THIS TIME WL BE DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPR TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES
ON SUNDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO SUN AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HIGH TEMPS ON
SUN.  FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER SUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WL STILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE ACRS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR SUN ACRS THE AREA.  SUN
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE.  THE GFS
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE CENTRAL CO
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA. WL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
MON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE.  THE ECMWF HAS A
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THEN INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS
SYSTEM SENDS A FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS HAS A TROF
EXTENDING FROM WRN MT TO OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS BRINGS
INCREASING MSTR TO THE CONTDVD AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN.  FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME MTN PCPN AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.  ALSO...LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION.

FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...OVER PRIMARILY NORTHERN
SECTIONS...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 260555
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1055 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL COLORADO. HEAVIEST SNOW IS OCCURRING OVER
LAKE COUNTY...WITH WEB CAMS SUGGESTING LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW FROM LEADVILLE UP TO FREMONT PASS. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
MUCH LIGHTER FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD COTTONWOOD AND MONARCH
PASSES...THOUGH STRONG WINDS WERE CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT
BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...HAVE SEEN FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE USUAL LEE SLOPE AND GAP FLOW AREAS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
THE LEE OF RAMPARTS NEAR THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AND OVER THE UPPER
ARKANSAS VALLEY AT SALIDA AND BUENA VISTA.

OVERNIGHT...OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD MORNING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST. STILL A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF LAKE COUNTY...AND WITH WINDS SLOW TO
DIMINISH...BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL WILL PERSIST. CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE
UNCHANGED. FARTHER EAST...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
THEN DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP LEE SLOPES AND
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WINDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME GUSTS OVER 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF
THE RAMPART RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH WINDS
AND BOUTS OF WAVE CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN KEEPING READINGS FROM
FALLING TOO FAR.

WEDNESDAY...SNOW ENDS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY AS MOIST
LAYER THINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY...WITH LESS WIND MOST LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND MAIN BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINATION OF MORE SUN BUT LESS MIXING WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NUMBERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
WARMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS 700MB COLD POOL SHIFTS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECTED DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BACK A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS A BIT
DIFFERENT IN HOW FAR WEST THEY PUSH THE BOUNDARY...WITH AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING COOL...WITH 40S FOR HIGHS UNDER
INCREASING STRATUS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON WARMING. IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER EAST...LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY AS THEY UPPER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW ACROSS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM ABOUT MONARCH PASS AREA
NORTHWARD. ALSO...SNOW OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO.
ELSEWHERE...JUST SPOTTY STUFF. MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF CLOUDS/SNOW. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR WITH
JUST A SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITION. ALL AREAS...DECREASING COVERAGE
OF SNOWFALL AFTER 12Z...WITH SNOWFALL ENDING AFTER 18Z. FOR
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...GENERALLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPOTTY...BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL ABOUT 12Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 260555
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1055 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL COLORADO. HEAVIEST SNOW IS OCCURRING OVER
LAKE COUNTY...WITH WEB CAMS SUGGESTING LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW FROM LEADVILLE UP TO FREMONT PASS. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
MUCH LIGHTER FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD COTTONWOOD AND MONARCH
PASSES...THOUGH STRONG WINDS WERE CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT
BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...HAVE SEEN FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE USUAL LEE SLOPE AND GAP FLOW AREAS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
THE LEE OF RAMPARTS NEAR THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AND OVER THE UPPER
ARKANSAS VALLEY AT SALIDA AND BUENA VISTA.

OVERNIGHT...OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD MORNING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST. STILL A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF LAKE COUNTY...AND WITH WINDS SLOW TO
DIMINISH...BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL WILL PERSIST. CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE
UNCHANGED. FARTHER EAST...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
THEN DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP LEE SLOPES AND
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WINDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME GUSTS OVER 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF
THE RAMPART RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH WINDS
AND BOUTS OF WAVE CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN KEEPING READINGS FROM
FALLING TOO FAR.

WEDNESDAY...SNOW ENDS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY AS MOIST
LAYER THINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY...WITH LESS WIND MOST LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND MAIN BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINATION OF MORE SUN BUT LESS MIXING WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NUMBERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
WARMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS 700MB COLD POOL SHIFTS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECTED DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BACK A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS A BIT
DIFFERENT IN HOW FAR WEST THEY PUSH THE BOUNDARY...WITH AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING COOL...WITH 40S FOR HIGHS UNDER
INCREASING STRATUS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON WARMING. IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER EAST...LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY AS THEY UPPER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW ACROSS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM ABOUT MONARCH PASS AREA
NORTHWARD. ALSO...SNOW OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO.
ELSEWHERE...JUST SPOTTY STUFF. MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF CLOUDS/SNOW. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR WITH
JUST A SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITION. ALL AREAS...DECREASING COVERAGE
OF SNOWFALL AFTER 12Z...WITH SNOWFALL ENDING AFTER 18Z. FOR
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...GENERALLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPOTTY...BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL ABOUT 12Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 260134
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
634 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL COLORADO. HEAVIEST SNOW IS OCCURRING OVER
LAKE COUNTY...WITH WEB CAMS SUGGESTING LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW FROM LEADVILLE UP TO FREMONT PASS. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
MUCH LIGHTER FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD COTTONWOOD AND MONARCH
PASSES...THOUGH STRONG WINDS WERE CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT
BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...HAVE SEEN FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE USUAL LEE SLOPE AND GAP FLOW AREAS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
THE LEE OF RAMPARTS NEAR THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AND OVER THE UPPER
ARKANSAS VALLEY AT SALIDA AND BUENA VISTA.

OVERNIGHT...OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD MORNING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST. STILL A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF LAKE COUNTY...AND WITH WINDS SLOW TO
DIMINISH...BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL WILL PERSIST. CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE
UNCHANGED. FARTHER EAST...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
THEN DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP LEE SLOPES AND
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WINDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME GUSTS OVER 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF
THE RAMPART RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH WINDS
AND BOUTS OF WAVE CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN KEEPING READINGS FROM
FALLING TOO FAR.

WEDNESDAY...SNOW ENDS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY AS MOIST
LAYER THINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY...WITH LESS WIND MOST LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND MAIN BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINATION OF MORE SUN BUT LESS MIXING WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NUMBERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
WARMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS 700MB COLD POOL SHIFTS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECTED DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BACK A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS A BIT
DIFFERENT IN HOW FAR WEST THEY PUSH THE BOUNDARY...WITH AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING COOL...WITH 40S FOR HIGHS UNDER
INCREASING STRATUS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON WARMING. IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER EAST...LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY AS THEY UPPER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. W-
NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL 02Z-
04Z...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE AND WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG...THOUGH HAVEN`T INCLUDED
ANYTHING IN EITHER TAF AT THIS POINT AS TIMING OF DIMINISHING SURFACE
WINDS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY FROM KMYP NORTHWARD. ON
WEDNESDAY...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS SNOW
DIMINISHES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 260134
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
634 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL COLORADO. HEAVIEST SNOW IS OCCURRING OVER
LAKE COUNTY...WITH WEB CAMS SUGGESTING LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW FROM LEADVILLE UP TO FREMONT PASS. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
MUCH LIGHTER FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD COTTONWOOD AND MONARCH
PASSES...THOUGH STRONG WINDS WERE CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT
BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...HAVE SEEN FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE USUAL LEE SLOPE AND GAP FLOW AREAS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
THE LEE OF RAMPARTS NEAR THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AND OVER THE UPPER
ARKANSAS VALLEY AT SALIDA AND BUENA VISTA.

OVERNIGHT...OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD MORNING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST. STILL A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF LAKE COUNTY...AND WITH WINDS SLOW TO
DIMINISH...BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL WILL PERSIST. CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE
UNCHANGED. FARTHER EAST...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
THEN DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP LEE SLOPES AND
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WINDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME GUSTS OVER 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF
THE RAMPART RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH WINDS
AND BOUTS OF WAVE CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN KEEPING READINGS FROM
FALLING TOO FAR.

WEDNESDAY...SNOW ENDS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY AS MOIST
LAYER THINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY...WITH LESS WIND MOST LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND MAIN BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINATION OF MORE SUN BUT LESS MIXING WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NUMBERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
WARMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS 700MB COLD POOL SHIFTS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECTED DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BACK A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS A BIT
DIFFERENT IN HOW FAR WEST THEY PUSH THE BOUNDARY...WITH AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING COOL...WITH 40S FOR HIGHS UNDER
INCREASING STRATUS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON WARMING. IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER EAST...LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY AS THEY UPPER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. W-
NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL 02Z-
04Z...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE AND WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG...THOUGH HAVEN`T INCLUDED
ANYTHING IN EITHER TAF AT THIS POINT AS TIMING OF DIMINISHING SURFACE
WINDS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY FROM KMYP NORTHWARD. ON
WEDNESDAY...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS SNOW
DIMINISHES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 252215
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL COLORADO. HEAVIEST SNOW IS OCCURRING OVER
LAKE COUNTY...WITH WEB CAMS SUGGESTING LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW FROM LEADVILLE UP TO FREMONT PASS. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
MUCH LIGHTER FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD COTTONWOOD AND MONARCH
PASSES...THOUGH STRONG WINDS WERE CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT
BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...HAVE SEEN FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE USUAL LEE SLOPE AND GAP FLOW AREAS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
THE LEE OF RAMPARTS NEAR THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AND OVER THE UPPER
ARKANSAS VALLEY AT SALIDA AND BUENA VISTA.

OVERNIGHT...OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD MORNING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST. STILL A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF LAKE COUNTY...AND WITH WINDS SLOW TO
DIMINISH...BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL WILL PERSIST. CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE
UNCHANGED. FARTHER EAST...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
THEN DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP LEE SLOPES AND
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WINDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME GUSTS OVER 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF
THE RAMPART RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH WINDS
AND BOUTS OF WAVE CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN KEEPING READINGS FROM
FALLING TOO FAR.

WEDNESDAY...SNOW ENDS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY AS MOIST
LAYER THINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY...WITH LESS WIND MOST LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND MAIN BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINATION OF MORE SUN BUT LESS MIXING WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NUMBERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
WARMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS 700MB COLD POOL SHIFTS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECTED DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BACK A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS A BIT
DIFFERENT IN HOW FAR WEST THEY PUSH THE BOUNDARY...WITH AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING COOL...WITH 40S FOR HIGHS UNDER
INCREASING STRATUS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON WARMING. IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER EAST...LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY AS THEY UPPER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. W-
NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL 02Z-
04Z...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE AND WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG...THOUGH HAVEN`T INCLUDED
ANYTHING IN EITHER TAF AT THIS POINT AS TIMING OF DIMINISHING SURFACE
WINDS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY FROM KMYP NORTHWARD. ON
WEDNESDAY...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS SNOW
DIMINISHES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 252215
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL COLORADO. HEAVIEST SNOW IS OCCURRING OVER
LAKE COUNTY...WITH WEB CAMS SUGGESTING LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW FROM LEADVILLE UP TO FREMONT PASS. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
MUCH LIGHTER FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD COTTONWOOD AND MONARCH
PASSES...THOUGH STRONG WINDS WERE CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT
BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...HAVE SEEN FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE USUAL LEE SLOPE AND GAP FLOW AREAS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
THE LEE OF RAMPARTS NEAR THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AND OVER THE UPPER
ARKANSAS VALLEY AT SALIDA AND BUENA VISTA.

OVERNIGHT...OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD MORNING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST. STILL A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF LAKE COUNTY...AND WITH WINDS SLOW TO
DIMINISH...BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL WILL PERSIST. CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE
UNCHANGED. FARTHER EAST...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
THEN DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP LEE SLOPES AND
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WINDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME GUSTS OVER 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF
THE RAMPART RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH WINDS
AND BOUTS OF WAVE CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN KEEPING READINGS FROM
FALLING TOO FAR.

WEDNESDAY...SNOW ENDS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY AS MOIST
LAYER THINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY...WITH LESS WIND MOST LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND MAIN BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINATION OF MORE SUN BUT LESS MIXING WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NUMBERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
WARMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS 700MB COLD POOL SHIFTS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECTED DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BACK A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS A BIT
DIFFERENT IN HOW FAR WEST THEY PUSH THE BOUNDARY...WITH AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING COOL...WITH 40S FOR HIGHS UNDER
INCREASING STRATUS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON WARMING. IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER EAST...LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY AS THEY UPPER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. W-
NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL 02Z-
04Z...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE AND WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG...THOUGH HAVEN`T INCLUDED
ANYTHING IN EITHER TAF AT THIS POINT AS TIMING OF DIMINISHING SURFACE
WINDS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY FROM KMYP NORTHWARD. ON
WEDNESDAY...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS SNOW
DIMINISHES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 251953
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1253 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND
LEADVILLE...AS PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCORPORATE RECENT DATA AS WELL AS TO
INCREASE WINDS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SECTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EASTERN PORTIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.  IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES MOST AREAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING OROGRAPHIC SNOW
WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTY FROM LATER THIS
MORNING INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO RUN FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWFA...BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRIMARY PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST OF EASTERN COLORADO AS UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH TO
EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

FINALLY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
TODAY...WHILE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD EXPERIENCE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WED MORNING WL CONTINUE BRINGING MSTR AND SOME SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS.  HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WED MORNING SHOULD
JUST BE VERY LIGHT.  BY WED AFTERNOON THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MSTR
DECREASING OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH THE SNOW ENDING. HOWEVER THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE HYR AREAS WL LEAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST.  THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE DRY ON WED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER...AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY WHICH WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND EVEN WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGH IN THE 50S AND 60S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THU OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S BUT AT THIS TIME WL NOT GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE.  A FLAT
UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA FRI.  HIGH LEVEL MSTR IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WHICH COULD HAMPER WARMING
SOME.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS COULD GENERALLY
BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WL
CONTINUE FOR SAT AND SUN OVR CO...WHILE AN UPR TROF KEEPS THE
WEATHER ACTIVE OVR THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS STATES.  ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SAT...BUT A WEAK WX
DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACRS THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH A FRONT BACKING
INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS...BRINGING COOLER WX. ON MON AN UPR TROF IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING SWRLY.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR MONDAY WITH AROUND
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS WHICH ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
W-NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL 01Z-
02Z...THEN DIMINISH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW THREAT OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT KCOS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE AND
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG...THOUGH HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANYTHING IN
THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SNOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...MAINLY FROM KMYP NORTHWARD.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 251953
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1253 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND
LEADVILLE...AS PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCORPORATE RECENT DATA AS WELL AS TO
INCREASE WINDS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SECTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EASTERN PORTIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.  IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES MOST AREAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING OROGRAPHIC SNOW
WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTY FROM LATER THIS
MORNING INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO RUN FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWFA...BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRIMARY PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST OF EASTERN COLORADO AS UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH TO
EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

FINALLY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
TODAY...WHILE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD EXPERIENCE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WED MORNING WL CONTINUE BRINGING MSTR AND SOME SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS.  HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WED MORNING SHOULD
JUST BE VERY LIGHT.  BY WED AFTERNOON THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MSTR
DECREASING OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH THE SNOW ENDING. HOWEVER THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE HYR AREAS WL LEAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST.  THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE DRY ON WED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER...AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY WHICH WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND EVEN WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGH IN THE 50S AND 60S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THU OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S BUT AT THIS TIME WL NOT GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE.  A FLAT
UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA FRI.  HIGH LEVEL MSTR IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WHICH COULD HAMPER WARMING
SOME.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS COULD GENERALLY
BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WL
CONTINUE FOR SAT AND SUN OVR CO...WHILE AN UPR TROF KEEPS THE
WEATHER ACTIVE OVR THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS STATES.  ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SAT...BUT A WEAK WX
DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACRS THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH A FRONT BACKING
INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS...BRINGING COOLER WX. ON MON AN UPR TROF IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING SWRLY.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR MONDAY WITH AROUND
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS WHICH ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
W-NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL 01Z-
02Z...THEN DIMINISH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW THREAT OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT KCOS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE AND
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG...THOUGH HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANYTHING IN
THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SNOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...MAINLY FROM KMYP NORTHWARD.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 251734
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCORPORATE RECENT DATA AS WELL AS TO
INCREASE WINDS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SECTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EASTERN PORTIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.  IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES MOST AREAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING OROGRAPHIC SNOW
WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTY FROM LATER THIS
MORNING INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO RUN FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWFA...BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRIMARY PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST OF EASTERN COLORADO AS UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH TO
EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

FINALLY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
TODAY...WHILE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD EXPERIENCE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WED MORNING WL CONTINUE BRINGING MSTR AND SOME SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS.  HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WED MORNING SHOULD
JUST BE VERY LIGHT.  BY WED AFTERNOON THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MSTR
DECREASING OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH THE SNOW ENDING. HOWEVER THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE HYR AREAS WL LEAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST.  THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE DRY ON WED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER...AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY WHICH WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND EVEN WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGH IN THE 50S AND 60S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THU OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S BUT AT THIS TIME WL NOT GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE.  A FLAT
UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA FRI.  HIGH LEVEL MSTR IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WHICH COULD HAMPER WARMING
SOME.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS COULD GENERALLY
BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WL
CONTINUE FOR SAT AND SUN OVR CO...WHILE AN UPR TROF KEEPS THE
WEATHER ACTIVE OVR THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS STATES.  ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SAT...BUT A WEAK WX
DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACRS THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH A FRONT BACKING
INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS...BRINGING COOLER WX. ON MON AN UPR TROF IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING SWRLY.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR MONDAY WITH AROUND
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS WHICH ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
W-NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL 01Z-
02Z...THEN DIMINISH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW THREAT OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT KCOS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE AND
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG...THOUGH HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANYTHING IN
THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SNOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...MAINLY FROM KMYP NORTHWARD.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 251734
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCORPORATE RECENT DATA AS WELL AS TO
INCREASE WINDS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SECTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EASTERN PORTIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.  IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES MOST AREAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING OROGRAPHIC SNOW
WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTY FROM LATER THIS
MORNING INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO RUN FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWFA...BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRIMARY PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST OF EASTERN COLORADO AS UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH TO
EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

FINALLY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
TODAY...WHILE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD EXPERIENCE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WED MORNING WL CONTINUE BRINGING MSTR AND SOME SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS.  HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WED MORNING SHOULD
JUST BE VERY LIGHT.  BY WED AFTERNOON THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MSTR
DECREASING OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH THE SNOW ENDING. HOWEVER THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE HYR AREAS WL LEAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST.  THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE DRY ON WED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER...AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY WHICH WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND EVEN WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGH IN THE 50S AND 60S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THU OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S BUT AT THIS TIME WL NOT GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE.  A FLAT
UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA FRI.  HIGH LEVEL MSTR IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WHICH COULD HAMPER WARMING
SOME.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS COULD GENERALLY
BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WL
CONTINUE FOR SAT AND SUN OVR CO...WHILE AN UPR TROF KEEPS THE
WEATHER ACTIVE OVR THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS STATES.  ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SAT...BUT A WEAK WX
DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACRS THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH A FRONT BACKING
INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS...BRINGING COOLER WX. ON MON AN UPR TROF IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING SWRLY.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR MONDAY WITH AROUND
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS WHICH ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
W-NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL 01Z-
02Z...THEN DIMINISH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW THREAT OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT KCOS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE AND
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG...THOUGH HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANYTHING IN
THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SNOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...MAINLY FROM KMYP NORTHWARD.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 251448
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
748 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCORPORATE RECENT DATA AS WELL AS TO
INCREASE WINDS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SECTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EASTERN PORTIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.  IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES MOST AREAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING OROGRAPHIC SNOW
WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTY FROM LATER THIS
MORNING INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO RUN FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWFA...BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRIMARY PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST OF EASTERN COLORADO AS UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH TO
EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

FINALLY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
TODAY...WHILE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD EXPERIENCE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WED MORNING WL CONTINUE BRINGING MSTR AND SOME SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS.  HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WED MORNING SHOULD
JUST BE VERY LIGHT.  BY WED AFTERNOON THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MSTR
DECREASING OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH THE SNOW ENDING. HOWEVER THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE HYR AREAS WL LEAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST.  THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE DRY ON WED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER...AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY WHICH WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND EVEN WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGH IN THE 50S AND 60S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THU OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S BUT AT THIS TIME WL NOT GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE.  A FLAT
UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA FRI.  HIGH LEVEL MSTR IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WHICH COULD HAMPER WARMING
SOME.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS COULD GENERALLY
BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WL
CONTINUE FOR SAT AND SUN OVR CO...WHILE AN UPR TROF KEEPS THE
WEATHER ACTIVE OVR THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS STATES.  ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SAT...BUT A WEAK WX
DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACRS THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH A FRONT BACKING
INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS...BRINGING COOLER WX. ON MON AN UPR TROF IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING SWRLY.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR MONDAY WITH AROUND
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS WHICH ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY OVER THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 251448
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
748 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCORPORATE RECENT DATA AS WELL AS TO
INCREASE WINDS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SECTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EASTERN PORTIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.  IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES MOST AREAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING OROGRAPHIC SNOW
WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTY FROM LATER THIS
MORNING INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO RUN FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWFA...BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRIMARY PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST OF EASTERN COLORADO AS UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH TO
EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

FINALLY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
TODAY...WHILE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD EXPERIENCE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WED MORNING WL CONTINUE BRINGING MSTR AND SOME SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS.  HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WED MORNING SHOULD
JUST BE VERY LIGHT.  BY WED AFTERNOON THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MSTR
DECREASING OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH THE SNOW ENDING. HOWEVER THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE HYR AREAS WL LEAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST.  THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE DRY ON WED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER...AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY WHICH WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND EVEN WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGH IN THE 50S AND 60S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THU OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S BUT AT THIS TIME WL NOT GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE.  A FLAT
UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA FRI.  HIGH LEVEL MSTR IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WHICH COULD HAMPER WARMING
SOME.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS COULD GENERALLY
BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WL
CONTINUE FOR SAT AND SUN OVR CO...WHILE AN UPR TROF KEEPS THE
WEATHER ACTIVE OVR THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS STATES.  ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SAT...BUT A WEAK WX
DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACRS THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH A FRONT BACKING
INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS...BRINGING COOLER WX. ON MON AN UPR TROF IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING SWRLY.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR MONDAY WITH AROUND
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS WHICH ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY OVER THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$




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