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000
FXUS65 KPUB 050540
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN LIGHT OF RECENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY
COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ISOLD TS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF TS
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF TS CLOSER TO THE KS BORDER
SAT AFTERNOON. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 050540
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN LIGHT OF RECENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY
COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ISOLD TS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF TS
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF TS CLOSER TO THE KS BORDER
SAT AFTERNOON. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 050420
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ISOLD TS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE. AN ISOLD SHWR OR TS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
FOR THE LOWER ELEVS...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF TS AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF TS CLOSER TO THE KS BORDER SAT
AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 050420
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ISOLD TS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE. AN ISOLD SHWR OR TS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
FOR THE LOWER ELEVS...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF TS AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF TS CLOSER TO THE KS BORDER SAT
AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 050420
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ISOLD TS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE. AN ISOLD SHWR OR TS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
FOR THE LOWER ELEVS...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF TS AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF TS CLOSER TO THE KS BORDER SAT
AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 050420
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ISOLD TS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE. AN ISOLD SHWR OR TS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
FOR THE LOWER ELEVS...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF TS AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF TS CLOSER TO THE KS BORDER SAT
AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 050301
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
901 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE KCOS AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS
TO BE BETWEEN 22 AND 24 UTC (4 AND 6 PM)...BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR NEXT
24H.

KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME RUMBLES AND THUNDER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD.

SCATTERED TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITE. AS FOR FOG...I DONT THINK IT WILL
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT AT KEEPING LOTS OF CLOUDS
OVER THE VALLEY TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...FOG SHOULD NOT OCCUR.
HOWEVER...IF WE DO SEE SOME RAIN AND IT CLEARS OUT...THEN LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS FOG NOT
OCCURRING IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 050301
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
901 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE KCOS AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS
TO BE BETWEEN 22 AND 24 UTC (4 AND 6 PM)...BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR NEXT
24H.

KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME RUMBLES AND THUNDER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD.

SCATTERED TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITE. AS FOR FOG...I DONT THINK IT WILL
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT AT KEEPING LOTS OF CLOUDS
OVER THE VALLEY TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...FOG SHOULD NOT OCCUR.
HOWEVER...IF WE DO SEE SOME RAIN AND IT CLEARS OUT...THEN LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS FOG NOT
OCCURRING IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 042340
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
540 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE KCOS AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS
TO BE BETWEEN 22 AND 24 UTC (4 AND 6 PM)...BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR NEXT
24H.

KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME RUMBLES AND THUNDER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD.

SCATTERED TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITE. AS FOR FOG...I DONT THINK IT WILL
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT AT KEEPING LOTS OF CLOUDS
OVER THE VALLEY TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...FOG SHOULD NOT OCCUR.
HOWEVER...IF WE DO SEE SOME RAIN AND IT CLEARS OUT...THEN LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS FOG NOT
OCCURRING IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 042340
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
540 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE KCOS AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS
TO BE BETWEEN 22 AND 24 UTC (4 AND 6 PM)...BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR NEXT
24H.

KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME RUMBLES AND THUNDER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD.

SCATTERED TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITE. AS FOR FOG...I DONT THINK IT WILL
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT AT KEEPING LOTS OF CLOUDS
OVER THE VALLEY TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...FOG SHOULD NOT OCCUR.
HOWEVER...IF WE DO SEE SOME RAIN AND IT CLEARS OUT...THEN LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS FOG NOT
OCCURRING IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 042340
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
540 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE KCOS AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS
TO BE BETWEEN 22 AND 24 UTC (4 AND 6 PM)...BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR NEXT
24H.

KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME RUMBLES AND THUNDER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD.

SCATTERED TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITE. AS FOR FOG...I DONT THINK IT WILL
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT AT KEEPING LOTS OF CLOUDS
OVER THE VALLEY TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...FOG SHOULD NOT OCCUR.
HOWEVER...IF WE DO SEE SOME RAIN AND IT CLEARS OUT...THEN LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS FOG NOT
OCCURRING IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 042340
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
540 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE KCOS AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS
TO BE BETWEEN 22 AND 24 UTC (4 AND 6 PM)...BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR NEXT
24H.

KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME RUMBLES AND THUNDER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD.

SCATTERED TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITE. AS FOR FOG...I DONT THINK IT WILL
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT AT KEEPING LOTS OF CLOUDS
OVER THE VALLEY TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...FOG SHOULD NOT OCCUR.
HOWEVER...IF WE DO SEE SOME RAIN AND IT CLEARS OUT...THEN LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS FOG NOT
OCCURRING IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 042104
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
304 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS WERE
MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS
OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLN LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLN. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE KCOS AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS
TO BE BETWEEN 22 AND 24 UTC (4 AND 6 PM)...BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR NEXT
24H.

KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME RUMBLES AND THUNDER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD.

SCTD TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
TAF SITE. AS FOR FOG...I DONT THINK IT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT AS
GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT AT KEEPING LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE VALLEY
TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...FOG SHOULD NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...IF WE DO
SEE SOME RAIN AND IT CLEARS OUT...THEN LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS FOG NOT OCCURRING IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 042104
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
304 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS WERE
MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS
OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLN LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLN. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE KCOS AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS
TO BE BETWEEN 22 AND 24 UTC (4 AND 6 PM)...BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR NEXT
24H.

KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME RUMBLES AND THUNDER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD.

SCTD TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
TAF SITE. AS FOR FOG...I DONT THINK IT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT AS
GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT AT KEEPING LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE VALLEY
TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...FOG SHOULD NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...IF WE DO
SEE SOME RAIN AND IT CLEARS OUT...THEN LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS FOG NOT OCCURRING IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041736
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE TAF SITES FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING TODAY.

KCOS...VFR NEXT 24H EXCEPT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A ROUND OR TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 22 UTC AND 24 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

KPUB...VFR NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLD TSRA WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KALS...ISOLD/SCTD TSRA IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE KALS TAF WILL BE FOG.
GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BROKEN DECK LASTING THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT...I DECIDED NOT TO PUT FOG IN THE KALS TAF FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS IF IT DOES RAIN AT KALS LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...AND IT DOES CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT...THEN DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041736
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE TAF SITES FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING TODAY.

KCOS...VFR NEXT 24H EXCEPT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A ROUND OR TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 22 UTC AND 24 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

KPUB...VFR NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLD TSRA WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KALS...ISOLD/SCTD TSRA IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE KALS TAF WILL BE FOG.
GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BROKEN DECK LASTING THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT...I DECIDED NOT TO PUT FOG IN THE KALS TAF FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS IF IT DOES RAIN AT KALS LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...AND IT DOES CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT...THEN DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 041736
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE TAF SITES FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING TODAY.

KCOS...VFR NEXT 24H EXCEPT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A ROUND OR TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 22 UTC AND 24 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

KPUB...VFR NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLD TSRA WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KALS...ISOLD/SCTD TSRA IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE KALS TAF WILL BE FOG.
GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BROKEN DECK LASTING THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT...I DECIDED NOT TO PUT FOG IN THE KALS TAF FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS IF IT DOES RAIN AT KALS LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...AND IT DOES CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT...THEN DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 041736
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE TAF SITES FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING TODAY.

KCOS...VFR NEXT 24H EXCEPT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A ROUND OR TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 22 UTC AND 24 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

KPUB...VFR NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLD TSRA WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KALS...ISOLD/SCTD TSRA IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE KALS TAF WILL BE FOG.
GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BROKEN DECK LASTING THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT...I DECIDED NOT TO PUT FOG IN THE KALS TAF FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS IF IT DOES RAIN AT KALS LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...AND IT DOES CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT...THEN DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041113
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
513 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

KALS WILL HAVE SOME LOW CIGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNING THRU ABOUT 15Z
OR 16Z WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE
TAF SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE
VCNTY OF KALS THRU THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE
TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 041113
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
513 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

KALS WILL HAVE SOME LOW CIGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNING THRU ABOUT 15Z
OR 16Z WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE
TAF SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE
VCNTY OF KALS THRU THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE
TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041113
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
513 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

KALS WILL HAVE SOME LOW CIGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNING THRU ABOUT 15Z
OR 16Z WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE
TAF SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE
VCNTY OF KALS THRU THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE
TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041113
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
513 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

KALS WILL HAVE SOME LOW CIGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNING THRU ABOUT 15Z
OR 16Z WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE
TAF SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE
VCNTY OF KALS THRU THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE
TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 041002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES.  THERE WL ALSO BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF KALS THRU THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.  CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES UNLESS A
STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY BRIEF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 041002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES.  THERE WL ALSO BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF KALS THRU THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.  CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES UNLESS A
STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY BRIEF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 041002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES.  THERE WL ALSO BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF KALS THRU THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.  CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES UNLESS A
STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY BRIEF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 041002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES.  THERE WL ALSO BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF KALS THRU THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.  CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES UNLESS A
STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY BRIEF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 040542
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE
CHANCE OF TS AT OR NR THE TAF SITES FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRI. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
MTS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD MOVE OUT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PROB OF PRECIP WILL BE HIGHEST AT KALS
FRI EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 040542
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE
CHANCE OF TS AT OR NR THE TAF SITES FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRI. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
MTS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD MOVE OUT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PROB OF PRECIP WILL BE HIGHEST AT KALS
FRI EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 040532
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE
CHANCE OF TS AT OR NR THE TAF SITES FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRI. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
MTS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD MOVE OUT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVS. THE PROB OF PRECIP WILL BE HIGHEST AT KALS
FRI EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 040532
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE
CHANCE OF TS AT OR NR THE TAF SITES FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRI. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
MTS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD MOVE OUT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVS. THE PROB OF PRECIP WILL BE HIGHEST AT KALS
FRI EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 040348
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
948 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 040348
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
948 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 032355
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
555 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 032355
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
555 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 032355
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
555 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 032050
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
250 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THAT
HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR. THIS HAS MESHED
WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER COLORADO TODAY.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND INTO THE
MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTN AND EVE CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE
CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH AND EXIT THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY RIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW...AND MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE
MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTN. A
MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

TROUGHIENESS DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS FCST
TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY SATURDAY.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 032050
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
250 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THAT
HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR. THIS HAS MESHED
WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER COLORADO TODAY.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND INTO THE
MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTN AND EVE CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE
CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH AND EXIT THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY RIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW...AND MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE
MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTN. A
MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

TROUGHIENESS DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS FCST
TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY SATURDAY.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT
23 HOURS. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VCSH AND
VCTS HIS AFTN AND EVE...SO INCLUDED THIS FROM 19Z-03Z. THIS IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR VCTS FOR KPUB LATE AFTN...SO INCLUDED 23Z-0-3Z.
LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO
THE N-NW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT
23 HOURS. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VCSH AND
VCTS HIS AFTN AND EVE...SO INCLUDED THIS FROM 19Z-03Z. THIS IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR VCTS FOR KPUB LATE AFTN...SO INCLUDED 23Z-0-3Z.
LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO
THE N-NW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT
23 HOURS. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VCSH AND
VCTS HIS AFTN AND EVE...SO INCLUDED THIS FROM 19Z-03Z. THIS IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR VCTS FOR KPUB LATE AFTN...SO INCLUDED 23Z-0-3Z.
LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO
THE N-NW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT
23 HOURS. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VCSH AND
VCTS HIS AFTN AND EVE...SO INCLUDED THIS FROM 19Z-03Z. THIS IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR VCTS FOR KPUB LATE AFTN...SO INCLUDED 23Z-0-3Z.
LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO
THE N-NW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...MOORE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031339
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
739 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.  KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL KCOS.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KPUB ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST OR NW
IN THE EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031339
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
739 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.  KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL KCOS.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KPUB ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST OR NW
IN THE EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28





000
FXUS65 KPUB 031339
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
739 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.  KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL KCOS.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KPUB ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST OR NW
IN THE EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031339
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
739 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.  KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL KCOS.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KPUB ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST OR NW
IN THE EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031046
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.  KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL KCOS.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KPUB ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST OR NW
IN THE EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031046
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.  KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL KCOS.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KPUB ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST OR NW
IN THE EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 030500
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD
MOVE INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT ANY
STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS SLIGHTLY
EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM
NORTHWESTERN NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS
REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
RATHER LOW CAPE (200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS
WILL STAY ISOLATED AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO
SUPPORT ANY EVENING CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG
ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGREES FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
SEE LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND
90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON
AFTERNOON AND EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL
BE PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
MTS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...MON AFTERNOON AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. GENERALLY
VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA BUT MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY 18Z-00Z. HEAVY RAIN...FLASH
FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE MAIN STORM
THREATS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE AT KALS. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KALS 17Z-04Z THURSDAY. SECOND BEST CHANCE
OF A TERMINAL STORM IS AT KCOS. WILL CARRY VCTS THERE 18Z-04Z
THURSDAY. FOR KPUB...CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR WEST TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECAST SO NO MENTION
THERE AT THIS TIME. ALL 3 TAFS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMENDMENTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON PENDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 030500
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD
MOVE INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT ANY
STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS SLIGHTLY
EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM
NORTHWESTERN NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS
REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
RATHER LOW CAPE (200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS
WILL STAY ISOLATED AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO
SUPPORT ANY EVENING CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG
ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGREES FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
SEE LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND
90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON
AFTERNOON AND EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL
BE PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
MTS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...MON AFTERNOON AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. GENERALLY
VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA BUT MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY 18Z-00Z. HEAVY RAIN...FLASH
FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE MAIN STORM
THREATS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE AT KALS. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KALS 17Z-04Z THURSDAY. SECOND BEST CHANCE
OF A TERMINAL STORM IS AT KCOS. WILL CARRY VCTS THERE 18Z-04Z
THURSDAY. FOR KPUB...CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR WEST TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECAST SO NO MENTION
THERE AT THIS TIME. ALL 3 TAFS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMENDMENTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON PENDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030500
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD
MOVE INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT ANY
STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS SLIGHTLY
EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM
NORTHWESTERN NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS
REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
RATHER LOW CAPE (200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS
WILL STAY ISOLATED AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO
SUPPORT ANY EVENING CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG
ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGREES FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
SEE LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND
90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON
AFTERNOON AND EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL
BE PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
MTS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...MON AFTERNOON AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. GENERALLY
VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA BUT MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY 18Z-00Z. HEAVY RAIN...FLASH
FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE MAIN STORM
THREATS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE AT KALS. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KALS 17Z-04Z THURSDAY. SECOND BEST CHANCE
OF A TERMINAL STORM IS AT KCOS. WILL CARRY VCTS THERE 18Z-04Z
THURSDAY. FOR KPUB...CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR WEST TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECAST SO NO MENTION
THERE AT THIS TIME. ALL 3 TAFS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMENDMENTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON PENDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
711 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NWD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD MOVE
INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE ERN
MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT
ANY STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 030111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
711 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NWD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD MOVE
INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE ERN
MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT
ANY STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
711 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NWD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD MOVE
INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE ERN
MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT
ANY STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 030111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
711 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NWD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD MOVE
INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE ERN
MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT
ANY STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 022108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 022108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 021740
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES(WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
TODAY...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE A STORM NEAR KCOS ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL 21Z-
24Z...BUT PROBABLITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR
CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND PASSES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021740
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES(WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
TODAY...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE A STORM NEAR KCOS ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL 21Z-
24Z...BUT PROBABLITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR
CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND PASSES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 021053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES(WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 021053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES(WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIMES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIMES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 021047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIMES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77




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