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000
FXUS65 KPUB 011036
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW MOVING STRONG
VORTICITY MAX MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SPREADING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS REMAINING DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
LOWER PROBABILITIES OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER
CORES MOVE OVER BURN SCARS OR ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE NEAR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MONSOON CONTINUES FIRST HALF OF WEEK THEN DRIER LAST HALF...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SUMMER MONSOON
PATTERN WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DURING THIS PERIOD...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OVER NEW MEXICO...ALLOWING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO BECOME PREVALENT OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS
THE MONSOON TO THE SOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS...LEAVING COLORADO WITH A
MUCH DRIER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. DUE TO THE DRIER AND HIGHER
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...ANY STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL TEND
TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PRIMARY
STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z...AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  REDUCED
CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THE TERMINAL SEES
RAIN...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FOG HEADING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY AFTER 22Z.  IF THEY DO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS
THEY WILL BRING REDUCED VIS AND CIGS TO THE TERMINALS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011036
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW MOVING STRONG
VORTICITY MAX MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SPREADING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS REMAINING DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
LOWER PROBABILITIES OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER
CORES MOVE OVER BURN SCARS OR ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE NEAR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MONSOON CONTINUES FIRST HALF OF WEEK THEN DRIER LAST HALF...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SUMMER MONSOON
PATTERN WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DURING THIS PERIOD...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OVER NEW MEXICO...ALLOWING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO BECOME PREVALENT OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS
THE MONSOON TO THE SOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS...LEAVING COLORADO WITH A
MUCH DRIER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. DUE TO THE DRIER AND HIGHER
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...ANY STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL TEND
TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PRIMARY
STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z...AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  REDUCED
CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THE TERMINAL SEES
RAIN...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FOG HEADING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY AFTER 22Z.  IF THEY DO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS
THEY WILL BRING REDUCED VIS AND CIGS TO THE TERMINALS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 010522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...JUST ISOLD STORMS OVER SE CO...AS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
THE MTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF
THE SE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING
FLOW FOR STORMS LOOKS PRETTY WEAK...AND CURRENTLY STORMS ARE NOT
MOVING MUCH AND ARE SHORT-LIVED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE RATON MESA AREA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. SOME
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...PROGS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AREA...BUT IMPACT ON SE CO WOULD
LIKELY BE MINIMAL UNLESS THIS COMPLEX SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.

AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NE MOVES ON TO THE MISS VALLEY
THIS EVENING...FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160 IN
THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS ISOLD AT
BEST. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE RATON AND SRN ZONES SUCH AS
BACA COUNTY...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DRIFT OFF THE SRN FRONT
RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH...SO TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...OR UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH NAM AND GFS TREND THE DEW POINTS DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MIXING THEM OUT INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR/ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH 50S+ LINGERING NEAR THE CO KS
BORDER. SO GREATEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOODING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THEY IMPACT
BURN SCARS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...BUT LOOK MORE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS CO.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE TROF. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CO...SO KEEPS HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND SHIFTS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.
NAM12 SEEMS TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN CO...SHIFTING INTO KS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS MCS DEVELOPS/TRACKS IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL PUT SOME SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AT THIS POINT...THOUGH SE FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON A DOWNTURN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS
POINT...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONSOON PLUME RETURNS BEGINNING EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN GFS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS AGAIN...AND TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 010522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...JUST ISOLD STORMS OVER SE CO...AS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
THE MTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF
THE SE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING
FLOW FOR STORMS LOOKS PRETTY WEAK...AND CURRENTLY STORMS ARE NOT
MOVING MUCH AND ARE SHORT-LIVED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE RATON MESA AREA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. SOME
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...PROGS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AREA...BUT IMPACT ON SE CO WOULD
LIKELY BE MINIMAL UNLESS THIS COMPLEX SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.

AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NE MOVES ON TO THE MISS VALLEY
THIS EVENING...FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160 IN
THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS ISOLD AT
BEST. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE RATON AND SRN ZONES SUCH AS
BACA COUNTY...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DRIFT OFF THE SRN FRONT
RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH...SO TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...OR UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH NAM AND GFS TREND THE DEW POINTS DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MIXING THEM OUT INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR/ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH 50S+ LINGERING NEAR THE CO KS
BORDER. SO GREATEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOODING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THEY IMPACT
BURN SCARS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...BUT LOOK MORE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS CO.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE TROF. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CO...SO KEEPS HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND SHIFTS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.
NAM12 SEEMS TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN CO...SHIFTING INTO KS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS MCS DEVELOPS/TRACKS IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL PUT SOME SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AT THIS POINT...THOUGH SE FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON A DOWNTURN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS
POINT...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONSOON PLUME RETURNS BEGINNING EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN GFS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS AGAIN...AND TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...JUST ISOLD STORMS OVER SE CO...AS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
THE MTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF
THE SE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING
FLOW FOR STORMS LOOKS PRETTY WEAK...AND CURRENTLY STORMS ARE NOT
MOVING MUCH AND ARE SHORT-LIVED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE RATON MESA AREA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. SOME
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...PROGS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AREA...BUT IMPACT ON SE CO WOULD
LIKELY BE MINIMAL UNLESS THIS COMPLEX SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.

AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NE MOVES ON TO THE MISS VALLEY
THIS EVENING...FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160 IN
THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS ISOLD AT
BEST. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE RATON AND SRN ZONES SUCH AS
BACA COUNTY...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DRIFT OFF THE SRN FRONT
RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH...SO TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...OR UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH NAM AND GFS TREND THE DEW POINTS DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MIXING THEM OUT INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR/ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH 50S+ LINGERING NEAR THE CO KS
BORDER. SO GREATEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOODING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THEY IMPACT
BURN SCARS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...BUT LOOK MORE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS CO.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE TROF. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CO...SO KEEPS HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND SHIFTS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.
NAM12 SEEMS TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN CO...SHIFTING INTO KS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS MCS DEVELOPS/TRACKS IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL PUT SOME SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AT THIS POINT...THOUGH SE FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON A DOWNTURN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS
POINT...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONSOON PLUME RETURNS BEGINNING EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN GFS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS AGAIN...AND TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 312138
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
338 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...JUST ISOLD STORMS OVER SE CO...AS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
THE MTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF
THE SE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING
FLOW FOR STORMS LOOKS PRETTY WEAK...AND CURRENTLY STORMS ARE NOT
MOVING MUCH AND ARE SHORT-LIVED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE RATON MESA AREA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. SOME
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...PROGS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AREA...BUT IMPACT ON SE CO WOULD
LIKELY BE MINIMAL UNLESS THIS COMPLEX SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.

AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NE MOVES ON TO THE MISS VALLEY
THIS EVENING...FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160 IN
THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS ISOLD AT
BEST. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE RATON AND SRN ZONES SUCH AS
BACA COUNTY...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DRIFT OFF THE SRN FRONT
RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH...SO TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...OR UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH NAM AND GFS TREND THE DEW POINTS DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MIXING THEM OUT INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR/ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH 50S+ LINGERING NEAR THE CO KS
BORDER. SO GREATEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOODING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THEY IMPACT
BURN SCARS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...BUT LOOK MORE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS CO.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE TROF. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CO...SO KEEPS HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND SHIFTS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.
NAM12 SEEMS TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN CO...SHIFTING INTO KS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS MCS DEVELOPS/TRACKS IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL PUT SOME SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AT THIS POINT...THOUGH SE FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON A DOWNTURN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS
POINT...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONSOON PLUME RETURNS BEGINNING EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN GFS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS AGAIN...AND TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

STILL EXPECT VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ANY IMPACT
ON THE TERMINALS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT-
LIVED. STORMS WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 312138
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
338 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...JUST ISOLD STORMS OVER SE CO...AS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
THE MTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF
THE SE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING
FLOW FOR STORMS LOOKS PRETTY WEAK...AND CURRENTLY STORMS ARE NOT
MOVING MUCH AND ARE SHORT-LIVED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE RATON MESA AREA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. SOME
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...PROGS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AREA...BUT IMPACT ON SE CO WOULD
LIKELY BE MINIMAL UNLESS THIS COMPLEX SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.

AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NE MOVES ON TO THE MISS VALLEY
THIS EVENING...FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160 IN
THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS ISOLD AT
BEST. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE RATON AND SRN ZONES SUCH AS
BACA COUNTY...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DRIFT OFF THE SRN FRONT
RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH...SO TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...OR UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH NAM AND GFS TREND THE DEW POINTS DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MIXING THEM OUT INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR/ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH 50S+ LINGERING NEAR THE CO KS
BORDER. SO GREATEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOODING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THEY IMPACT
BURN SCARS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...BUT LOOK MORE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS CO.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE TROF. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CO...SO KEEPS HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND SHIFTS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.
NAM12 SEEMS TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN CO...SHIFTING INTO KS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS MCS DEVELOPS/TRACKS IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL PUT SOME SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AT THIS POINT...THOUGH SE FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON A DOWNTURN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS
POINT...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONSOON PLUME RETURNS BEGINNING EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN GFS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS AGAIN...AND TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

STILL EXPECT VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ANY IMPACT
ON THE TERMINALS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT-
LIVED. STORMS WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 311711
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION START TO BUILD
OVER THE SW MTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TO ADJUST POPS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER BACA...AND NOW NORTHWARD INTO PROWERS COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE IS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO BACA
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AREAS OF FOG NEAR LAMAR.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
MODELS DO AGREE THAT ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT...AND AREAS OVER BACA COUNTY WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER NEW
MEXICO...ALLOWING MONSOON DISTURBANCES TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE
INTO COLORADO...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEERING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US ON
THESE 2 DAYS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND/OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
BOTH EVENINGS. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A CONCERN. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRIER DAYS AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS OVER COLORADO. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS REALLY QUIET...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUIET
OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES...ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. ISOLATED TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...GENERALLY IN THE 21Z
THROUGH 02Z TIME PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS/TS WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 311711
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION START TO BUILD
OVER THE SW MTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TO ADJUST POPS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER BACA...AND NOW NORTHWARD INTO PROWERS COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE IS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO BACA
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AREAS OF FOG NEAR LAMAR.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
MODELS DO AGREE THAT ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT...AND AREAS OVER BACA COUNTY WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER NEW
MEXICO...ALLOWING MONSOON DISTURBANCES TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE
INTO COLORADO...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEERING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US ON
THESE 2 DAYS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND/OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
BOTH EVENINGS. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A CONCERN. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRIER DAYS AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS OVER COLORADO. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS REALLY QUIET...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUIET
OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES...ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. ISOLATED TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...GENERALLY IN THE 21Z
THROUGH 02Z TIME PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS/TS WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE





000
FXUS65 KPUB 311530
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
930 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION START TO BUILD
OVER THE SW MTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TO ADJUST POPS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER BACA...AND NOW NORTHWARD INTO PROWERS COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE IS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO BACA
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AREAS OF FOG NEAR LAMAR.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
MODELS DO AGREE THAT ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT...AND AREAS OVER BACA COUNTY WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER NEW
MEXICO...ALLOWING MONSOON DISTURBANCES TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE
INTO COLORADO...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEERING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US ON
THESE 2 DAYS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND/OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
BOTH EVENINGS. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A CONCERN. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRIER DAYS AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS OVER COLORADO. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS REALLY QUIET...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUIET
OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

KALS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
MORNING...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH REDUCED CIGS AND
VIS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER
18Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
PASS.  CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 4-5 KFT OVERNIGHT.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 22Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN STORMS
THAT PASS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 311530
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
930 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION START TO BUILD
OVER THE SW MTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TO ADJUST POPS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER BACA...AND NOW NORTHWARD INTO PROWERS COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE IS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO BACA
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AREAS OF FOG NEAR LAMAR.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
MODELS DO AGREE THAT ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT...AND AREAS OVER BACA COUNTY WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER NEW
MEXICO...ALLOWING MONSOON DISTURBANCES TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE
INTO COLORADO...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEERING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US ON
THESE 2 DAYS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND/OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
BOTH EVENINGS. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A CONCERN. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRIER DAYS AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS OVER COLORADO. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS REALLY QUIET...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUIET
OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

KALS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
MORNING...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH REDUCED CIGS AND
VIS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER
18Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
PASS.  CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 4-5 KFT OVERNIGHT.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 22Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN STORMS
THAT PASS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 311349
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
749 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TO ADJUST POPS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER BACA...AND NOW NORTHWARD INTO PROWERS COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE IS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO BACA
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AREAS OF FOG NEAR LAMAR.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
MODELS DO AGREE THAT ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT...AND AREAS OVER BACA COUNTY WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER NEW
MEXICO...ALLOWING MONSOON DISTURBANCES TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE
INTO COLORADO...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEERING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US ON
THESE 2 DAYS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND/OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
BOTH EVENINGS. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A CONCERN. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRIER DAYS AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS OVER COLORADO. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS REALLY QUIET...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUIET
OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

KALS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
MORNING...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH REDUCED CIGS AND
VIS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER
18Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
PASS.  CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 4-5 KFT OVERNIGHT.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 22Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN STORMS
THAT PASS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 311349
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
749 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TO ADJUST POPS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER BACA...AND NOW NORTHWARD INTO PROWERS COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE IS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO BACA
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AREAS OF FOG NEAR LAMAR.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
MODELS DO AGREE THAT ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT...AND AREAS OVER BACA COUNTY WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER NEW
MEXICO...ALLOWING MONSOON DISTURBANCES TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE
INTO COLORADO...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEERING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US ON
THESE 2 DAYS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND/OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
BOTH EVENINGS. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A CONCERN. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRIER DAYS AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS OVER COLORADO. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS REALLY QUIET...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUIET
OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

KALS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
MORNING...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH REDUCED CIGS AND
VIS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER
18Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
PASS.  CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 4-5 KFT OVERNIGHT.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 22Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN STORMS
THAT PASS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 311044
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
444 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE IS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO BACA
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AREAS OF FOG NEAR LAMAR.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
MODELS DO AGREE THAT ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT...AND AREAS OVER BACA COUNTY WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER NEW
MEXICO...ALLOWING MONSOON DISTURBANCES TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE
INTO COLORADO...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEERING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US ON
THESE 2 DAYS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND/OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
BOTH EVENINGS. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A CONCERN. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRIER DAYS AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS OVER COLORADO. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS REALLY QUIET...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUIET
OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

KALS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
MORNING...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH REDUCED CIGS AND
VIS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER
18Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
PASS.  CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 4-5 KFT OVERNIGHT.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 22Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN STORMS
THAT PASS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 311044
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
444 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE IS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO BACA
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AREAS OF FOG NEAR LAMAR.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
MODELS DO AGREE THAT ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT...AND AREAS OVER BACA COUNTY WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER NEW
MEXICO...ALLOWING MONSOON DISTURBANCES TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE
INTO COLORADO...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEERING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US ON
THESE 2 DAYS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND/OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
BOTH EVENINGS. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A CONCERN. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRIER DAYS AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS OVER COLORADO. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS REALLY QUIET...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUIET
OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

KALS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
MORNING...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH REDUCED CIGS AND
VIS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER
18Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
PASS.  CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 4-5 KFT OVERNIGHT.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 22Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN STORMS
THAT PASS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 310522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES...

ITS BEEN A SLOW AND SPARSE START TO CONVECTION TODAY AND WITH LITTLE
SHEAR...STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING AND
UNORGANIZED...PULSING UP THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING.  SEVERAL FOCUS
AREAS EXIST TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BESIDES THE USUAL
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS...WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALSO PROVIDING SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS.  SURFACE TROF AXIS ACROSS SE CO ALONG WITH THE
REMNANT MCV RIDING THROUGH EXTREME NE NM INTO FAR SE CO IS ALLOWING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON RIDGE AND ACROSS CIMARRON
COUNTY, OK.  IT IS THIS LATTER FEATURE THAT MODELS APPEAR TO BE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL IMPACT AND
WHETHER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER RUN...INDICATING
HEAVY QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BUT IT HASN`T VERIFIED WELL TODAY AS THE MODEL IS
WAY OVERDONE IN QPF AMOUNTS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
REGION.  GFS...NMM...ARW...RAP13 ARE ALL MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
QPF AMOUNTS AND GFS SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THINK TONIGHT MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE
NIGHTS OF SEEING SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BACA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...OVER-RIDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH.  SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS DOWN THAT WAY...BUT
HAVE TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE MODEL BLENDS.  MONSOON PLUME
MAY ALSO KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OUT WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS.  MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS AND
AREAS WITH SUSCEPTIBLE SOIL CONDITIONS.  CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1500
J/KG COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS THEY PULSE UP...BUT
LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION WHICH
SHOULD KEEP STORMS UNDER SEVERE LIMITS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE MAKING A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHIFTING
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS
GENERALLY DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED
TO AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND
LESS EXPECTED CONVECTION...SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF PAC NW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE LATEST ECMWF STILL
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SAID SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH
LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH THE WAVE RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS INDICATING MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING BACK ACROSS THE AREA
WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT ANY RATE...COULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH SENDS
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC KEEPING DRIER AIR WITHIN MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHERE AS THE GFS REBUILDS A DIRTY
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SAID
DIFFERENCES...STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS
POPS WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AFTER 10Z TONIGHT WITH MOISTER AIR AND A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM
THE EAST AT KCOS AND KPUB (WHERE THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN) AND
KALS WHERE IT RAINED LIGHTLY THU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND 18Z FRI...WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A TSRA AT ALL THREE SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST ACTIVITY
WILL FADE AFT 02Z FRI EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSRA MAY LINGER
LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS65 KPUB 310522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES...

ITS BEEN A SLOW AND SPARSE START TO CONVECTION TODAY AND WITH LITTLE
SHEAR...STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING AND
UNORGANIZED...PULSING UP THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING.  SEVERAL FOCUS
AREAS EXIST TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BESIDES THE USUAL
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS...WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALSO PROVIDING SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS.  SURFACE TROF AXIS ACROSS SE CO ALONG WITH THE
REMNANT MCV RIDING THROUGH EXTREME NE NM INTO FAR SE CO IS ALLOWING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON RIDGE AND ACROSS CIMARRON
COUNTY, OK.  IT IS THIS LATTER FEATURE THAT MODELS APPEAR TO BE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL IMPACT AND
WHETHER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER RUN...INDICATING
HEAVY QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BUT IT HASN`T VERIFIED WELL TODAY AS THE MODEL IS
WAY OVERDONE IN QPF AMOUNTS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
REGION.  GFS...NMM...ARW...RAP13 ARE ALL MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
QPF AMOUNTS AND GFS SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THINK TONIGHT MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE
NIGHTS OF SEEING SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BACA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...OVER-RIDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH.  SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS DOWN THAT WAY...BUT
HAVE TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE MODEL BLENDS.  MONSOON PLUME
MAY ALSO KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OUT WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS.  MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS AND
AREAS WITH SUSCEPTIBLE SOIL CONDITIONS.  CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1500
J/KG COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS THEY PULSE UP...BUT
LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION WHICH
SHOULD KEEP STORMS UNDER SEVERE LIMITS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE MAKING A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHIFTING
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS
GENERALLY DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED
TO AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND
LESS EXPECTED CONVECTION...SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF PAC NW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE LATEST ECMWF STILL
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SAID SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH
LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH THE WAVE RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS INDICATING MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING BACK ACROSS THE AREA
WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT ANY RATE...COULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH SENDS
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC KEEPING DRIER AIR WITHIN MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHERE AS THE GFS REBUILDS A DIRTY
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SAID
DIFFERENCES...STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS
POPS WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AFTER 10Z TONIGHT WITH MOISTER AIR AND A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM
THE EAST AT KCOS AND KPUB (WHERE THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN) AND
KALS WHERE IT RAINED LIGHTLY THU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND 18Z FRI...WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A TSRA AT ALL THREE SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST ACTIVITY
WILL FADE AFT 02Z FRI EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSRA MAY LINGER
LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS65 KPUB 310522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES...

ITS BEEN A SLOW AND SPARSE START TO CONVECTION TODAY AND WITH LITTLE
SHEAR...STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING AND
UNORGANIZED...PULSING UP THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING.  SEVERAL FOCUS
AREAS EXIST TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BESIDES THE USUAL
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS...WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALSO PROVIDING SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS.  SURFACE TROF AXIS ACROSS SE CO ALONG WITH THE
REMNANT MCV RIDING THROUGH EXTREME NE NM INTO FAR SE CO IS ALLOWING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON RIDGE AND ACROSS CIMARRON
COUNTY, OK.  IT IS THIS LATTER FEATURE THAT MODELS APPEAR TO BE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL IMPACT AND
WHETHER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER RUN...INDICATING
HEAVY QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BUT IT HASN`T VERIFIED WELL TODAY AS THE MODEL IS
WAY OVERDONE IN QPF AMOUNTS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
REGION.  GFS...NMM...ARW...RAP13 ARE ALL MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
QPF AMOUNTS AND GFS SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THINK TONIGHT MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE
NIGHTS OF SEEING SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BACA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...OVER-RIDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH.  SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS DOWN THAT WAY...BUT
HAVE TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE MODEL BLENDS.  MONSOON PLUME
MAY ALSO KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OUT WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS.  MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS AND
AREAS WITH SUSCEPTIBLE SOIL CONDITIONS.  CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1500
J/KG COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS THEY PULSE UP...BUT
LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION WHICH
SHOULD KEEP STORMS UNDER SEVERE LIMITS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE MAKING A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHIFTING
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS
GENERALLY DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED
TO AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND
LESS EXPECTED CONVECTION...SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF PAC NW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE LATEST ECMWF STILL
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SAID SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH
LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH THE WAVE RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS INDICATING MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING BACK ACROSS THE AREA
WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT ANY RATE...COULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH SENDS
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC KEEPING DRIER AIR WITHIN MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHERE AS THE GFS REBUILDS A DIRTY
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SAID
DIFFERENCES...STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS
POPS WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AFTER 10Z TONIGHT WITH MOISTER AIR AND A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM
THE EAST AT KCOS AND KPUB (WHERE THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN) AND
KALS WHERE IT RAINED LIGHTLY THU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND 18Z FRI...WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A TSRA AT ALL THREE SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST ACTIVITY
WILL FADE AFT 02Z FRI EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSRA MAY LINGER
LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS65 KPUB 310522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES...

ITS BEEN A SLOW AND SPARSE START TO CONVECTION TODAY AND WITH LITTLE
SHEAR...STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING AND
UNORGANIZED...PULSING UP THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING.  SEVERAL FOCUS
AREAS EXIST TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BESIDES THE USUAL
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS...WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALSO PROVIDING SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS.  SURFACE TROF AXIS ACROSS SE CO ALONG WITH THE
REMNANT MCV RIDING THROUGH EXTREME NE NM INTO FAR SE CO IS ALLOWING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON RIDGE AND ACROSS CIMARRON
COUNTY, OK.  IT IS THIS LATTER FEATURE THAT MODELS APPEAR TO BE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL IMPACT AND
WHETHER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER RUN...INDICATING
HEAVY QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BUT IT HASN`T VERIFIED WELL TODAY AS THE MODEL IS
WAY OVERDONE IN QPF AMOUNTS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
REGION.  GFS...NMM...ARW...RAP13 ARE ALL MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
QPF AMOUNTS AND GFS SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THINK TONIGHT MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE
NIGHTS OF SEEING SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BACA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...OVER-RIDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH.  SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS DOWN THAT WAY...BUT
HAVE TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE MODEL BLENDS.  MONSOON PLUME
MAY ALSO KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OUT WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS.  MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS AND
AREAS WITH SUSCEPTIBLE SOIL CONDITIONS.  CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1500
J/KG COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS THEY PULSE UP...BUT
LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION WHICH
SHOULD KEEP STORMS UNDER SEVERE LIMITS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE MAKING A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHIFTING
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS
GENERALLY DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED
TO AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND
LESS EXPECTED CONVECTION...SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF PAC NW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE LATEST ECMWF STILL
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SAID SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH
LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH THE WAVE RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS INDICATING MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING BACK ACROSS THE AREA
WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT ANY RATE...COULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH SENDS
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC KEEPING DRIER AIR WITHIN MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHERE AS THE GFS REBUILDS A DIRTY
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SAID
DIFFERENCES...STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS
POPS WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AFTER 10Z TONIGHT WITH MOISTER AIR AND A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM
THE EAST AT KCOS AND KPUB (WHERE THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN) AND
KALS WHERE IT RAINED LIGHTLY THU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND 18Z FRI...WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A TSRA AT ALL THREE SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST ACTIVITY
WILL FADE AFT 02Z FRI EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSRA MAY LINGER
LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS65 KPUB 302121
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES...

ITS BEEN A SLOW AND SPARSE START TO CONVECTION TODAY AND WITH LITTLE
SHEAR...STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING AND
UNORGANIZED...PULSING UP THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING.  SEVERAL FOCUS
AREAS EXIST TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BESIDES THE USUAL
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS...WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALSO PROVIDING SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS.  SURFACE TROF AXIS ACROSS SE CO ALONG WITH THE
REMNANT MCV RIDING THROUGH EXTREME NE NM INTO FAR SE CO IS ALLOWING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON RIDGE AND ACROSS CIMARRON
COUNTY, OK.  IT IS THIS LATTER FEATURE THAT MODELS APPEAR TO BE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL IMPACT AND
WHETHER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER RUN...INDICATING
HEAVY QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BUT IT HASN`T VERIFIED WELL TODAY AS THE MODEL IS
WAY OVERDONE IN QPF AMOUNTS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
REGION.  GFS...NMM...ARW...RAP13 ARE ALL MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
QPF AMOUNTS AND GFS SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THINK TONIGHT MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE
NIGHTS OF SEEING SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BACA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...OVER-RIDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH.  SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS DOWN THAT WAY...BUT
HAVE TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE MODEL BLENDS.  MONSOON PLUME
MAY ALSO KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OUT WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS.  MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS AND
AREAS WITH SUSCEPTIBLE SOIL CONDITIONS.  CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1500
J/KG COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS THEY PULSE UP...BUT
LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION WHICH
SHOULD KEEP STORMS UNDER SEVERE LIMITS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE MAKING A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHIFTING
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS
GENERALLY DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED
TO AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND
LESS EXPECTED CONVECTION...SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF PAC NW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE LATEST ECMWF STILL
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SAID SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH
LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH THE WAVE RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS INDICATING MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING BACK ACROSS THE AREA
WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT ANY RATE...COULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH SENDS
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC KEEPING DRIER AIR WITHIN MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHERE AS THE GFS REBUILDS A DIRTY
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SAID
DIFFERENCES...STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS
POPS WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN TAFS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCOS AND KALS THROUGH 02Z.  HIGHEST THREAT WINDOW
WILL BE NOW THROUGH 23Z.  LOCAL ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
KTS...AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...THOUGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THESE MORE ISOLATED CELLS WILL
IMPACT THE TAF SITES IN SMALL.  THUS VFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY
TO PREVAIL.  DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OCCURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SHOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS
TOWARDS MORNING...PRODUCING A SCT TO BKN MVFR TO IFR LAYER.
FORECAST MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS SIGNIFICANTLY.  THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LOT OF LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD...AND THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY
TO BE A VFR LAYER...SO TAFS LEAN THIS WAY FOR NOW.  ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH KCOS
AND KALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED AGAIN.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 302121
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES...

ITS BEEN A SLOW AND SPARSE START TO CONVECTION TODAY AND WITH LITTLE
SHEAR...STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING AND
UNORGANIZED...PULSING UP THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING.  SEVERAL FOCUS
AREAS EXIST TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BESIDES THE USUAL
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS...WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALSO PROVIDING SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS.  SURFACE TROF AXIS ACROSS SE CO ALONG WITH THE
REMNANT MCV RIDING THROUGH EXTREME NE NM INTO FAR SE CO IS ALLOWING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON RIDGE AND ACROSS CIMARRON
COUNTY, OK.  IT IS THIS LATTER FEATURE THAT MODELS APPEAR TO BE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL IMPACT AND
WHETHER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER RUN...INDICATING
HEAVY QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BUT IT HASN`T VERIFIED WELL TODAY AS THE MODEL IS
WAY OVERDONE IN QPF AMOUNTS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
REGION.  GFS...NMM...ARW...RAP13 ARE ALL MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
QPF AMOUNTS AND GFS SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THINK TONIGHT MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE
NIGHTS OF SEEING SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BACA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...OVER-RIDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH.  SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS DOWN THAT WAY...BUT
HAVE TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE MODEL BLENDS.  MONSOON PLUME
MAY ALSO KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OUT WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS.  MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS AND
AREAS WITH SUSCEPTIBLE SOIL CONDITIONS.  CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1500
J/KG COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS THEY PULSE UP...BUT
LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION WHICH
SHOULD KEEP STORMS UNDER SEVERE LIMITS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE MAKING A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHIFTING
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS
GENERALLY DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED
TO AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND
LESS EXPECTED CONVECTION...SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF PAC NW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE LATEST ECMWF STILL
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SAID SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH
LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH THE WAVE RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS INDICATING MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING BACK ACROSS THE AREA
WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT ANY RATE...COULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH SENDS
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC KEEPING DRIER AIR WITHIN MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHERE AS THE GFS REBUILDS A DIRTY
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SAID
DIFFERENCES...STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS
POPS WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN TAFS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCOS AND KALS THROUGH 02Z.  HIGHEST THREAT WINDOW
WILL BE NOW THROUGH 23Z.  LOCAL ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
KTS...AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...THOUGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THESE MORE ISOLATED CELLS WILL
IMPACT THE TAF SITES IN SMALL.  THUS VFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY
TO PREVAIL.  DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OCCURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SHOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS
TOWARDS MORNING...PRODUCING A SCT TO BKN MVFR TO IFR LAYER.
FORECAST MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS SIGNIFICANTLY.  THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LOT OF LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD...AND THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY
TO BE A VFR LAYER...SO TAFS LEAN THIS WAY FOR NOW.  ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH KCOS
AND KALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED AGAIN.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 301737
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL
AREAS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND RATON MESA REGION TODAY AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME
SPOTTY HEAVY PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. THIS AREA IS ALSO
ENCOMPASSED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY FAVORABLE
OVER LESS THAN 1/8TH OF THE ZONE. FURTHER...ONLY THE 12Z NAM12
THUS FAR IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER QPF MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 06Z GFS...AND 00Z HIGH RES MODELS KEEP
ACTION FARTHER SOUTH. SO WILL HOLD OFF AND SEE HOW SITUATION
EVOLVES. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 60 OR SO MILES SOUTH OF THE
CO/NM BORDER. OVER THE PUB CWFA...NO PRECIP WAS BEING INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND MAINLY MID TO HI CLOUDINESS WAS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED AS DEWPTS WERE IN THE 60S OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...WITH
50-55F DWPTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. 40 DWPTS WERE GENERALLY NOTED
IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

HI RES GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING SOME OF THE RAIN OVER NM NWD INTO FAR
S COLO THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH I BELIEVE SOME RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BORDER...THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

LATER TODAY...WITH HEATING AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500
RANGE...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
REGION TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE OVER THE S SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ACROSS THE S SAN JUANS.
HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALL
OF THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY...AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF ISOLD STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
TODAY...WITH U80S/90 ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

RAIN CHANCES BETTER TODAY FOR A FEW REASONS...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
BETTER AND DEEPER UPSLOPE...WITH WINDS AT 700 MB EVEN FROM THE EAST.
BETTER DEEPER MSTR IS IN PLACE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE S SANGRES AND S SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. NAM WANTS TO KEEP A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS OVER
THE SE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. BEST CHANCE I
BELIEVE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVING NORTH ACROSS COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATION GENERALLY AROUND SUNSET. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP STORMS ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING TIED
TO INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE LATEST GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. THE GFS
ALSO BRINGS A DISTURBANCE NORTH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES WITH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES...HAVE JUST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER TODAY
WHICH LEADS TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING AT 19-20Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 23Z. ITS
POSSIBLE KPUB MAY NEED A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA...BUT HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE...SO WILL MAINTAIN AS A VCTS GROUP FOR
NOW. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER THE STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON
HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE KCOS
AND KPUB TERMINALS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS...AND MODELS SUGGEST LOTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THIS THREAT SOME...SO WILL
KEEP TAFS VFR FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301737
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL
AREAS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND RATON MESA REGION TODAY AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME
SPOTTY HEAVY PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. THIS AREA IS ALSO
ENCOMPASSED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY FAVORABLE
OVER LESS THAN 1/8TH OF THE ZONE. FURTHER...ONLY THE 12Z NAM12
THUS FAR IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER QPF MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 06Z GFS...AND 00Z HIGH RES MODELS KEEP
ACTION FARTHER SOUTH. SO WILL HOLD OFF AND SEE HOW SITUATION
EVOLVES. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 60 OR SO MILES SOUTH OF THE
CO/NM BORDER. OVER THE PUB CWFA...NO PRECIP WAS BEING INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND MAINLY MID TO HI CLOUDINESS WAS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED AS DEWPTS WERE IN THE 60S OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...WITH
50-55F DWPTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. 40 DWPTS WERE GENERALLY NOTED
IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

HI RES GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING SOME OF THE RAIN OVER NM NWD INTO FAR
S COLO THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH I BELIEVE SOME RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BORDER...THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

LATER TODAY...WITH HEATING AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500
RANGE...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
REGION TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE OVER THE S SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ACROSS THE S SAN JUANS.
HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALL
OF THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY...AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF ISOLD STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
TODAY...WITH U80S/90 ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

RAIN CHANCES BETTER TODAY FOR A FEW REASONS...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
BETTER AND DEEPER UPSLOPE...WITH WINDS AT 700 MB EVEN FROM THE EAST.
BETTER DEEPER MSTR IS IN PLACE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE S SANGRES AND S SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. NAM WANTS TO KEEP A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS OVER
THE SE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. BEST CHANCE I
BELIEVE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVING NORTH ACROSS COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATION GENERALLY AROUND SUNSET. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP STORMS ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING TIED
TO INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE LATEST GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. THE GFS
ALSO BRINGS A DISTURBANCE NORTH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES WITH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES...HAVE JUST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER TODAY
WHICH LEADS TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING AT 19-20Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 23Z. ITS
POSSIBLE KPUB MAY NEED A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA...BUT HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE...SO WILL MAINTAIN AS A VCTS GROUP FOR
NOW. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER THE STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON
HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE KCOS
AND KPUB TERMINALS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS...AND MODELS SUGGEST LOTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THIS THREAT SOME...SO WILL
KEEP TAFS VFR FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 301737
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL
AREAS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND RATON MESA REGION TODAY AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME
SPOTTY HEAVY PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. THIS AREA IS ALSO
ENCOMPASSED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY FAVORABLE
OVER LESS THAN 1/8TH OF THE ZONE. FURTHER...ONLY THE 12Z NAM12
THUS FAR IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER QPF MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 06Z GFS...AND 00Z HIGH RES MODELS KEEP
ACTION FARTHER SOUTH. SO WILL HOLD OFF AND SEE HOW SITUATION
EVOLVES. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 60 OR SO MILES SOUTH OF THE
CO/NM BORDER. OVER THE PUB CWFA...NO PRECIP WAS BEING INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND MAINLY MID TO HI CLOUDINESS WAS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED AS DEWPTS WERE IN THE 60S OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...WITH
50-55F DWPTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. 40 DWPTS WERE GENERALLY NOTED
IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

HI RES GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING SOME OF THE RAIN OVER NM NWD INTO FAR
S COLO THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH I BELIEVE SOME RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BORDER...THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

LATER TODAY...WITH HEATING AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500
RANGE...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
REGION TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE OVER THE S SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ACROSS THE S SAN JUANS.
HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALL
OF THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY...AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF ISOLD STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
TODAY...WITH U80S/90 ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

RAIN CHANCES BETTER TODAY FOR A FEW REASONS...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
BETTER AND DEEPER UPSLOPE...WITH WINDS AT 700 MB EVEN FROM THE EAST.
BETTER DEEPER MSTR IS IN PLACE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE S SANGRES AND S SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. NAM WANTS TO KEEP A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS OVER
THE SE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. BEST CHANCE I
BELIEVE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVING NORTH ACROSS COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATION GENERALLY AROUND SUNSET. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP STORMS ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING TIED
TO INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE LATEST GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. THE GFS
ALSO BRINGS A DISTURBANCE NORTH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES WITH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES...HAVE JUST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER TODAY
WHICH LEADS TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING AT 19-20Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 23Z. ITS
POSSIBLE KPUB MAY NEED A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA...BUT HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE...SO WILL MAINTAIN AS A VCTS GROUP FOR
NOW. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER THE STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON
HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE KCOS
AND KPUB TERMINALS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS...AND MODELS SUGGEST LOTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THIS THREAT SOME...SO WILL
KEEP TAFS VFR FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301737
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL
AREAS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND RATON MESA REGION TODAY AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME
SPOTTY HEAVY PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. THIS AREA IS ALSO
ENCOMPASSED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY FAVORABLE
OVER LESS THAN 1/8TH OF THE ZONE. FURTHER...ONLY THE 12Z NAM12
THUS FAR IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER QPF MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 06Z GFS...AND 00Z HIGH RES MODELS KEEP
ACTION FARTHER SOUTH. SO WILL HOLD OFF AND SEE HOW SITUATION
EVOLVES. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 60 OR SO MILES SOUTH OF THE
CO/NM BORDER. OVER THE PUB CWFA...NO PRECIP WAS BEING INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND MAINLY MID TO HI CLOUDINESS WAS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED AS DEWPTS WERE IN THE 60S OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...WITH
50-55F DWPTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. 40 DWPTS WERE GENERALLY NOTED
IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

HI RES GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING SOME OF THE RAIN OVER NM NWD INTO FAR
S COLO THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH I BELIEVE SOME RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BORDER...THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

LATER TODAY...WITH HEATING AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500
RANGE...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
REGION TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE OVER THE S SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ACROSS THE S SAN JUANS.
HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALL
OF THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY...AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF ISOLD STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
TODAY...WITH U80S/90 ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

RAIN CHANCES BETTER TODAY FOR A FEW REASONS...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
BETTER AND DEEPER UPSLOPE...WITH WINDS AT 700 MB EVEN FROM THE EAST.
BETTER DEEPER MSTR IS IN PLACE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE S SANGRES AND S SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. NAM WANTS TO KEEP A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS OVER
THE SE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. BEST CHANCE I
BELIEVE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVING NORTH ACROSS COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATION GENERALLY AROUND SUNSET. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP STORMS ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING TIED
TO INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE LATEST GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. THE GFS
ALSO BRINGS A DISTURBANCE NORTH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES WITH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES...HAVE JUST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER TODAY
WHICH LEADS TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING AT 19-20Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 23Z. ITS
POSSIBLE KPUB MAY NEED A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA...BUT HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE...SO WILL MAINTAIN AS A VCTS GROUP FOR
NOW. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER THE STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON
HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE KCOS
AND KPUB TERMINALS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS...AND MODELS SUGGEST LOTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THIS THREAT SOME...SO WILL
KEEP TAFS VFR FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 301537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
937 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL
AREAS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND RATON MESA REGION TODAY AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME
SPOTTY HEAVY PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. THIS AREA IS ALSO
ENCOMPASSED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY FAVORABLE
OVER LESS THAN 1/8TH OF THE ZONE. FURTHER...ONLY THE 12Z NAM12
THUS FAR IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER QPF MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 06Z GFS...AND 00Z HIGH RES MODELS KEEP
ACTION FARTHER SOUTH. SO WILL HOLD OFF AND SEE HOW SITUATION
EVOLVES. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 60 OR SO MILES SOUTH OF THE
CO/NM BORDER. OVER THE PUB CWFA...NO PRECIP WAS BEING INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND MAINLY MID TO HI CLOUDINESS WAS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED AS DEWPTS WERE IN THE 60S OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...WITH
50-55F DWPTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. 40 DWPTS WERE GENERALLY NOTED
IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

HI RES GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING SOME OF THE RAIN OVER NM NWD INTO FAR
S COLO THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH I BELIEVE SOME RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BORDER...THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

LATER TODAY...WITH HEATING AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500
RANGE...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
REGION TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE OVER THE S SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ACROSS THE S SAN JUANS.
HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALL
OF THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY...AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF ISOLD STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
TODAY...WITH U80S/90 ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

RAIN CHANCES BETTER TODAY FOR A FEW REASONS...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
BETTER AND DEEPER UPSLOPE...WITH WINDS AT 700 MB EVEN FROM THE EAST.
BETTER DEEPER MSTR IS IN PLACE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE S SANGRES AND S SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. NAM WANTS TO KEEP A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS OVER
THE SE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. BEST CHANCE I
BELIEVE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVING NORTH ACROSS COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATION GENERALLY AROUND SUNSET. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP STORMS ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING TIED
TO INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE LATEST GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. THE GFS
ALSO BRINGS A DISTURBANCE NORTH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES WITH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES...HAVE JUST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS NEXT 24H. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVE. ALL TAF SITES MAY SEE A PASSING TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KALS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
937 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL
AREAS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND RATON MESA REGION TODAY AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME
SPOTTY HEAVY PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. THIS AREA IS ALSO
ENCOMPASSED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY FAVORABLE
OVER LESS THAN 1/8TH OF THE ZONE. FURTHER...ONLY THE 12Z NAM12
THUS FAR IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER QPF MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 06Z GFS...AND 00Z HIGH RES MODELS KEEP
ACTION FARTHER SOUTH. SO WILL HOLD OFF AND SEE HOW SITUATION
EVOLVES. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 60 OR SO MILES SOUTH OF THE
CO/NM BORDER. OVER THE PUB CWFA...NO PRECIP WAS BEING INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND MAINLY MID TO HI CLOUDINESS WAS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED AS DEWPTS WERE IN THE 60S OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...WITH
50-55F DWPTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. 40 DWPTS WERE GENERALLY NOTED
IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

HI RES GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING SOME OF THE RAIN OVER NM NWD INTO FAR
S COLO THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH I BELIEVE SOME RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BORDER...THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

LATER TODAY...WITH HEATING AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500
RANGE...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
REGION TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE OVER THE S SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ACROSS THE S SAN JUANS.
HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALL
OF THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY...AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF ISOLD STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
TODAY...WITH U80S/90 ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

RAIN CHANCES BETTER TODAY FOR A FEW REASONS...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
BETTER AND DEEPER UPSLOPE...WITH WINDS AT 700 MB EVEN FROM THE EAST.
BETTER DEEPER MSTR IS IN PLACE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE S SANGRES AND S SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. NAM WANTS TO KEEP A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS OVER
THE SE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. BEST CHANCE I
BELIEVE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVING NORTH ACROSS COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATION GENERALLY AROUND SUNSET. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP STORMS ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING TIED
TO INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE LATEST GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. THE GFS
ALSO BRINGS A DISTURBANCE NORTH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES WITH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES...HAVE JUST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS NEXT 24H. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVE. ALL TAF SITES MAY SEE A PASSING TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KALS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 300954
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
354 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 60 OR SO MILES SOUTH OF THE
CO/NM BORDER. OVER THE PUB CWFA...NO PRECIP WAS BEING INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND MAINLY MID TO HI CLOUDINESS WAS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED AS DEWPTS WERE IN THE 60S OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...WITH
50-55F DWPTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. 40 DWPTS WERE GENERALLY NOTED
IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

HI RES GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING SOME OF THE RAIN OVER NM NWD INTO FAR
S COLO THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH I BELIEVE SOME RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BORDER...THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

LATER TODAY...WITH HEATING AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500
RANGE...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
REGION TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE OVER THE S SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ACROSS THE S SAN JUANS.
HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALL
OF THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY...AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF ISOLD STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
TODAY...WITH U80S/90 ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

RAIN CHANCES BETTER TODAY FOR A FEW REASONS...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
BETTER AND DEEPER UPSLOPE...WITH WINDS AT 700 MB EVEN FROM THE EAST.
BETTER DEEPER MSTR IS IN PLACE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE S SANGRES AND S SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. NAM WANTS TO KEEP A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS OVER
THE SE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. BEST CHANCE I
BELIEVE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVING NORTH ACROSS COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATION GENERALLY AROUND SUNSET. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP STORMS ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING TIED
TO INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE LATEST GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. THE GFS
ALSO BRINGS A DISTURBANCE NORTH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES WITH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES...HAVE JUST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS NEXT 24H. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVE. ALL TAF SITES MAY SEE A PASSING TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300954
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
354 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 60 OR SO MILES SOUTH OF THE
CO/NM BORDER. OVER THE PUB CWFA...NO PRECIP WAS BEING INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND MAINLY MID TO HI CLOUDINESS WAS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED AS DEWPTS WERE IN THE 60S OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...WITH
50-55F DWPTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. 40 DWPTS WERE GENERALLY NOTED
IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

HI RES GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING SOME OF THE RAIN OVER NM NWD INTO FAR
S COLO THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH I BELIEVE SOME RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BORDER...THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

LATER TODAY...WITH HEATING AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500
RANGE...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
REGION TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE OVER THE S SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ACROSS THE S SAN JUANS.
HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALL
OF THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY...AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF ISOLD STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
TODAY...WITH U80S/90 ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

RAIN CHANCES BETTER TODAY FOR A FEW REASONS...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
BETTER AND DEEPER UPSLOPE...WITH WINDS AT 700 MB EVEN FROM THE EAST.
BETTER DEEPER MSTR IS IN PLACE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE S SANGRES AND S SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. NAM WANTS TO KEEP A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS OVER
THE SE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. BEST CHANCE I
BELIEVE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVING NORTH ACROSS COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATION GENERALLY AROUND SUNSET. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP STORMS ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING TIED
TO INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE LATEST GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. THE GFS
ALSO BRINGS A DISTURBANCE NORTH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES WITH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES...HAVE JUST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS NEXT 24H. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVE. ALL TAF SITES MAY SEE A PASSING TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 300511
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

...GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...

MONSOON PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO WITH OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
NE NM.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN MTS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MEANWHILE...SFC DEW POINTS ON THE PLAINS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S
WHICH HAS REALLY DIMINISHED CAPES.  SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWER 50 DEW
POINTS REMAIN PINNED UP IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MODELS
SUGGEST CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 800 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEW POINTS CAN MAINTAIN A LITTLE BETTER.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RESPECTABLE 40 KTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT THIS IS WHERE CAPE IS LACKING...AND WHERE CAPE IS
BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...SHEAR IS LACKING.  SO MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS DIMINISH THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
SUGGEST THAT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT WITH MODESTLY ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME
OVER THE AREA...AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING NEAR THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES...AND WITH MONSOON
PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD A BIT...SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE PLAINS SHOULD KEEP DEW POINTS HIGHER
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF A SFC TROF AXIS WHICH TAKES
SHAPE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE THROUGH KLHX.
THIS AREA MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON DUE TO CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS.  CAPE VALUES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 500-800 J/KG ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF 1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE BETTER
EAST OF THE SFC TROF AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER...BUILDING
UPPER HIGH ALOFT CUTS BACK 0-6KM SHEARS...SO ONCE AGAIN THINK MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MINOR DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MTS. WILL SEE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING OUT
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAK
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
AREA BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS CENTER OF UPPER HIGH BUILDS
JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHUNTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS GENERALLY
DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED TO AREAS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF UPPER HIGH WITH THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATING MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON MONDAY. FOR
NOW...DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WITH
THAT SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW MORE STORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z THU...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A TSRA AT KALS AND
KCOS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS DUE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST ACTIVITY WILL FADE WAY AGAIN 02Z-04Z THU
EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSRA MAY LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN PAST 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300511
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

...GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...

MONSOON PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO WITH OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
NE NM.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN MTS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MEANWHILE...SFC DEW POINTS ON THE PLAINS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S
WHICH HAS REALLY DIMINISHED CAPES.  SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWER 50 DEW
POINTS REMAIN PINNED UP IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MODELS
SUGGEST CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 800 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEW POINTS CAN MAINTAIN A LITTLE BETTER.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RESPECTABLE 40 KTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT THIS IS WHERE CAPE IS LACKING...AND WHERE CAPE IS
BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...SHEAR IS LACKING.  SO MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS DIMINISH THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
SUGGEST THAT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT WITH MODESTLY ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME
OVER THE AREA...AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING NEAR THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES...AND WITH MONSOON
PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD A BIT...SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE PLAINS SHOULD KEEP DEW POINTS HIGHER
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF A SFC TROF AXIS WHICH TAKES
SHAPE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE THROUGH KLHX.
THIS AREA MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON DUE TO CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS.  CAPE VALUES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 500-800 J/KG ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF 1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE BETTER
EAST OF THE SFC TROF AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER...BUILDING
UPPER HIGH ALOFT CUTS BACK 0-6KM SHEARS...SO ONCE AGAIN THINK MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MINOR DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MTS. WILL SEE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING OUT
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAK
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
AREA BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS CENTER OF UPPER HIGH BUILDS
JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHUNTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS GENERALLY
DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED TO AREAS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF UPPER HIGH WITH THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATING MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON MONDAY. FOR
NOW...DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WITH
THAT SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW MORE STORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z THU...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A TSRA AT KALS AND
KCOS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS DUE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST ACTIVITY WILL FADE WAY AGAIN 02Z-04Z THU
EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSRA MAY LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN PAST 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300511
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

...GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...

MONSOON PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO WITH OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
NE NM.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN MTS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MEANWHILE...SFC DEW POINTS ON THE PLAINS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S
WHICH HAS REALLY DIMINISHED CAPES.  SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWER 50 DEW
POINTS REMAIN PINNED UP IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MODELS
SUGGEST CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 800 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEW POINTS CAN MAINTAIN A LITTLE BETTER.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RESPECTABLE 40 KTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT THIS IS WHERE CAPE IS LACKING...AND WHERE CAPE IS
BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...SHEAR IS LACKING.  SO MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS DIMINISH THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
SUGGEST THAT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT WITH MODESTLY ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME
OVER THE AREA...AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING NEAR THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES...AND WITH MONSOON
PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD A BIT...SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE PLAINS SHOULD KEEP DEW POINTS HIGHER
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF A SFC TROF AXIS WHICH TAKES
SHAPE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE THROUGH KLHX.
THIS AREA MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON DUE TO CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS.  CAPE VALUES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 500-800 J/KG ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF 1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE BETTER
EAST OF THE SFC TROF AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER...BUILDING
UPPER HIGH ALOFT CUTS BACK 0-6KM SHEARS...SO ONCE AGAIN THINK MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MINOR DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MTS. WILL SEE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING OUT
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAK
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
AREA BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS CENTER OF UPPER HIGH BUILDS
JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHUNTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS GENERALLY
DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED TO AREAS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF UPPER HIGH WITH THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATING MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON MONDAY. FOR
NOW...DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WITH
THAT SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW MORE STORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z THU...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A TSRA AT KALS AND
KCOS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS DUE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST ACTIVITY WILL FADE WAY AGAIN 02Z-04Z THU
EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSRA MAY LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN PAST 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 292105
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

...GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...

MONSOON PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO WITH OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
NE NM.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN MTS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MEANWHILE...SFC DEW POINTS ON THE PLAINS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S
WHICH HAS REALLY DIMINISHED CAPES.  SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWER 50 DEW
POINTS REMAIN PINNED UP IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MODELS
SUGGEST CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 800 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEW POINTS CAN MAINTAIN A LITTLE BETTER.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RESPECTABLE 40 KTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT THIS IS WHERE CAPE IS LACKING...AND WHERE CAPE IS
BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...SHEAR IS LACKING.  SO MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS DIMINISH THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
SUGGEST THAT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT WITH MODESTLY ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME
OVER THE AREA...AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING NEAR THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES...AND WITH MONSOON
PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD A BIT...SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE PLAINS SHOULD KEEP DEW POINTS HIGHER
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF A SFC TROF AXIS WHICH TAKES
SHAPE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE THROUGH KLHX.
THIS AREA MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON DUE TO CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS.  CAPE VALUES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 500-800 J/KG ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF 1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE BETTER
EAST OF THE SFC TROF AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER...BUILDING
UPPER HIGH ALOFT CUTS BACK 0-6KM SHEARS...SO ONCE AGAIN THINK MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MINOR DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MTS. WILL SEE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING OUT
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAK
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
AREA BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS CENTER OF UPPER HIGH BUILDS
JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHUNTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS GENERALLY
DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED TO AREAS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF UPPER HIGH WITH THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATING MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON MONDAY. FOR
NOW...DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WITH
THAT SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SE
WINDS KEEPING SOME VFR CIGS IN AT KCOS AT TIMES TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF VCTS AT KALS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GENERALLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.  ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SPREADS UP FROM
THE SOUTH.  VFR TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 292105
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

...GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...

MONSOON PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO WITH OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
NE NM.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN MTS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MEANWHILE...SFC DEW POINTS ON THE PLAINS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S
WHICH HAS REALLY DIMINISHED CAPES.  SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWER 50 DEW
POINTS REMAIN PINNED UP IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MODELS
SUGGEST CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 800 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEW POINTS CAN MAINTAIN A LITTLE BETTER.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RESPECTABLE 40 KTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT THIS IS WHERE CAPE IS LACKING...AND WHERE CAPE IS
BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...SHEAR IS LACKING.  SO MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS DIMINISH THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
SUGGEST THAT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT WITH MODESTLY ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME
OVER THE AREA...AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING NEAR THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES...AND WITH MONSOON
PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD A BIT...SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE PLAINS SHOULD KEEP DEW POINTS HIGHER
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF A SFC TROF AXIS WHICH TAKES
SHAPE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE THROUGH KLHX.
THIS AREA MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON DUE TO CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS.  CAPE VALUES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 500-800 J/KG ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF 1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE BETTER
EAST OF THE SFC TROF AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER...BUILDING
UPPER HIGH ALOFT CUTS BACK 0-6KM SHEARS...SO ONCE AGAIN THINK MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MINOR DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MTS. WILL SEE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING OUT
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAK
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
AREA BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS CENTER OF UPPER HIGH BUILDS
JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHUNTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS GENERALLY
DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED TO AREAS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF UPPER HIGH WITH THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATING MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON MONDAY. FOR
NOW...DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WITH
THAT SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SE
WINDS KEEPING SOME VFR CIGS IN AT KCOS AT TIMES TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF VCTS AT KALS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GENERALLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.  ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SPREADS UP FROM
THE SOUTH.  VFR TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291823
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1223 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY.  -KT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
QPF EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

CURRENTLY...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION AT 3 AM...MAINLY OVER
THE EXTREME SE COL PLAINS...AND FROM ROUGHLY LIMON TO PUEBLO TO
WALSENBURG. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL...WERE
NOTED OVER THE REGION. DWPTS HAVE RECOVERED OVER THE PLAINS AS
VALUES WERE IN THE 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND 50S OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS. FAR SE COLORADO...KSPD...HAD A 63 DWPT.

TODAY...

PRECIP WILL MAINLY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. SHOWERS OVER FAR SE
COLO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE...AND EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO OCCUR ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE REST OF THE S
MTNS AND AS FAR N AS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEYS...AND 70S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TH CO/NM BORDER REGION
UNTIL MID EVENING AND THEN ALL THE PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ADJ TO THE NM BORDER.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE AOA 60F PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS/VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MONSOONAL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP
KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT INTO THE PLAINS. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE SATURDAY AND
TUESDAY...IN WHICH MODELS BRING STRONGER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...HELPING TO PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD CHANGE...AS
MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME PINPOINTING THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH GENERALLY 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...KALS MAY STAND THE
BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL...AND WILL
CARRY IT IN THE TAF FOR THAT AREA. KCOS MAY ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR VCTS AFTER 22Z...BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF. MAJORITY OF THE -TSRA
SHOULD STAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH SOME LINGERING -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A VFR
STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHICH COULD AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 09Z. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291823
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1223 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY.  -KT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
QPF EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

CURRENTLY...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION AT 3 AM...MAINLY OVER
THE EXTREME SE COL PLAINS...AND FROM ROUGHLY LIMON TO PUEBLO TO
WALSENBURG. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL...WERE
NOTED OVER THE REGION. DWPTS HAVE RECOVERED OVER THE PLAINS AS
VALUES WERE IN THE 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND 50S OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS. FAR SE COLORADO...KSPD...HAD A 63 DWPT.

TODAY...

PRECIP WILL MAINLY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. SHOWERS OVER FAR SE
COLO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE...AND EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO OCCUR ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE REST OF THE S
MTNS AND AS FAR N AS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEYS...AND 70S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TH CO/NM BORDER REGION
UNTIL MID EVENING AND THEN ALL THE PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ADJ TO THE NM BORDER.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE AOA 60F PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS/VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MONSOONAL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP
KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT INTO THE PLAINS. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE SATURDAY AND
TUESDAY...IN WHICH MODELS BRING STRONGER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...HELPING TO PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD CHANGE...AS
MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME PINPOINTING THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH GENERALLY 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...KALS MAY STAND THE
BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL...AND WILL
CARRY IT IN THE TAF FOR THAT AREA. KCOS MAY ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR VCTS AFTER 22Z...BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF. MAJORITY OF THE -TSRA
SHOULD STAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH SOME LINGERING -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A VFR
STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHICH COULD AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 09Z. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291712
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
QPF EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

CURRENTLY...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION AT 3 AM...MAINLY OVER
THE EXTREME SE COL PLAINS...AND FROM ROUGHLY LIMON TO PUEBLO TO
WALSENBURG. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL...WERE
NOTED OVER THE REGION. DWPTS HAVE RECOVERED OVER THE PLAINS AS
VALUES WERE IN THE 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND 50S OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS. FAR SE COLORADO...KSPD...HAD A 63 DWPT.

TODAY...

PRECIP WILL MAINLY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. SHOWERS OVER FAR SE
COLO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE...AND EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO OCCUR ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE REST OF THE S
MTNS AND AS FAR N AS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEYS...AND 70S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TH CO/NM BORDER REGION
UNTIL MID EVENING AND THEN ALL THE PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ADJ TO THE NM BORDER.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE AOA 60F PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS/VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MONSOONAL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP
KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT INTO THE PLAINS. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE SATURDAY AND
TUESDAY...IN WHICH MODELS BRING STRONGER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...HELPING TO PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD CHANGE...AS
MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME PINPOINTING THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH GENERALLY 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...KALS MAY STAND THE
BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL...AND WILL
CARRY IT IN THE TAF FOR THAT AREA. KCOS MAY ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR VCTS AFTER 22Z...BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF. MAJORITY OF THE -TSRA
SHOULD STAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH SOME LINGERING -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A VFR
STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHICH COULD AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 09Z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291550
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
950 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
QPF EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

CURRENTLY...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION AT 3 AM...MAINLY OVER
THE EXTREME SE COL PLAINS...AND FROM ROUGHLY LIMON TO PUEBLO TO
WALSENBURG. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL...WERE
NOTED OVER THE REGION. DWPTS HAVE RECOVERED OVER THE PLAINS AS
VALUES WERE IN THE 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND 50S OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS. FAR SE COLORADO...KSPD...HAD A 63 DWPT.

TODAY...

PRECIP WILL MAINLY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. SHOWERS OVER FAR SE
COLO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE...AND EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO OCCUR ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE REST OF THE S
MTNS AND AS FAR N AS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEYS...AND 70S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TH CO/NM BORDER REGION
UNTIL MID EVENING AND THEN ALL THE PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ADJ TO THE NM BORDER.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE AOA 60F PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS/VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MONSOONAL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP
KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT INTO THE PLAINS. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE SATURDAY AND
TUESDAY...IN WHICH MODELS BRING STRONGER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...HELPING TO PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD CHANGE...AS
MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME PINPOINTING THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH GENERALLY 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291550
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
950 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
QPF EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

CURRENTLY...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION AT 3 AM...MAINLY OVER
THE EXTREME SE COL PLAINS...AND FROM ROUGHLY LIMON TO PUEBLO TO
WALSENBURG. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL...WERE
NOTED OVER THE REGION. DWPTS HAVE RECOVERED OVER THE PLAINS AS
VALUES WERE IN THE 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND 50S OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS. FAR SE COLORADO...KSPD...HAD A 63 DWPT.

TODAY...

PRECIP WILL MAINLY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. SHOWERS OVER FAR SE
COLO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE...AND EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO OCCUR ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE REST OF THE S
MTNS AND AS FAR N AS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEYS...AND 70S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TH CO/NM BORDER REGION
UNTIL MID EVENING AND THEN ALL THE PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ADJ TO THE NM BORDER.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE AOA 60F PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS/VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MONSOONAL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP
KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT INTO THE PLAINS. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE SATURDAY AND
TUESDAY...IN WHICH MODELS BRING STRONGER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...HELPING TO PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD CHANGE...AS
MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME PINPOINTING THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH GENERALLY 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291550
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
950 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
QPF EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

CURRENTLY...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION AT 3 AM...MAINLY OVER
THE EXTREME SE COL PLAINS...AND FROM ROUGHLY LIMON TO PUEBLO TO
WALSENBURG. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL...WERE
NOTED OVER THE REGION. DWPTS HAVE RECOVERED OVER THE PLAINS AS
VALUES WERE IN THE 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND 50S OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS. FAR SE COLORADO...KSPD...HAD A 63 DWPT.

TODAY...

PRECIP WILL MAINLY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. SHOWERS OVER FAR SE
COLO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE...AND EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO OCCUR ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE REST OF THE S
MTNS AND AS FAR N AS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEYS...AND 70S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TH CO/NM BORDER REGION
UNTIL MID EVENING AND THEN ALL THE PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ADJ TO THE NM BORDER.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE AOA 60F PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS/VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MONSOONAL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP
KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT INTO THE PLAINS. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE SATURDAY AND
TUESDAY...IN WHICH MODELS BRING STRONGER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...HELPING TO PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD CHANGE...AS
MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME PINPOINTING THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH GENERALLY 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




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