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000
FXUS65 KPUB 020950
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
350 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY...GENERALLY
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND BACA COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING.  BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY HAS SEEN TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER COLORADO AND
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND BACA COUNTY...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH 15Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.  ONCE
THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MONTANA INTO NEBRASKA WHILE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ENCOMPASSES
COLORADO.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
GUSTY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  MOISTURE
WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID TO UPPER
30S FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS.  HAVE HOISTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHERE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST.  THE
OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WHERE WE MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S AS WELL.  THE UNCERTAINTY HERE
WILL BE HOW THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND ANY CLOUDS IMPACT HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

...COOL AND DRY FALL WEATHER THEN WARM AND DRY FALL WEATHER...

A NEW BLAST OF COOL AIR WILL HAVE SWEPT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SOME PATCHES OF
EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...AND A VERY COOL AIR MASS FOR EARLY
OCTOBER. HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH READINGS
ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL BE ABOVE THE COOL AIR SO READINGS
THERE WILL CLIMB TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES...WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS...40S OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND 30S OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE CHILLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL
SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.  FOR THE PLAINS...SOME
VERY DRY AIR MOVES IN MAKING FOR POTENTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE RIVER BOTTOMS THAN ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  IF SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR AND WINDS GO LIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
BOTTOM INCLUDING PLACES LIKE PUEBLO AND LAMAR.  MOST OTHER AREAS OF
THE EAST WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.  SO...SOME PATCHY FROST OR A FREEZE WILL BE
LIKELY AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TO
ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS NEXT WEEK.  A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS OUT OF THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY AND MILD FALL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  NORTH WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE PRODUCE GUSTS AT KCOS AND KPUB
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE COLORADO PLAINS
TONIGHT.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT AT KCOS
AND KPUB...AFTER 09Z/FRI.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS
AT KCOS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020950
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
350 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY...GENERALLY
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND BACA COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING.  BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY HAS SEEN TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER COLORADO AND
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND BACA COUNTY...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH 15Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.  ONCE
THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MONTANA INTO NEBRASKA WHILE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ENCOMPASSES
COLORADO.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
GUSTY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  MOISTURE
WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID TO UPPER
30S FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS.  HAVE HOISTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHERE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST.  THE
OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WHERE WE MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S AS WELL.  THE UNCERTAINTY HERE
WILL BE HOW THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND ANY CLOUDS IMPACT HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

...COOL AND DRY FALL WEATHER THEN WARM AND DRY FALL WEATHER...

A NEW BLAST OF COOL AIR WILL HAVE SWEPT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SOME PATCHES OF
EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...AND A VERY COOL AIR MASS FOR EARLY
OCTOBER. HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH READINGS
ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL BE ABOVE THE COOL AIR SO READINGS
THERE WILL CLIMB TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES...WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS...40S OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND 30S OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE CHILLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL
SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.  FOR THE PLAINS...SOME
VERY DRY AIR MOVES IN MAKING FOR POTENTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE RIVER BOTTOMS THAN ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  IF SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR AND WINDS GO LIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
BOTTOM INCLUDING PLACES LIKE PUEBLO AND LAMAR.  MOST OTHER AREAS OF
THE EAST WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.  SO...SOME PATCHY FROST OR A FREEZE WILL BE
LIKELY AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TO
ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS NEXT WEEK.  A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS OUT OF THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY AND MILD FALL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  NORTH WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE PRODUCE GUSTS AT KCOS AND KPUB
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE COLORADO PLAINS
TONIGHT.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT AT KCOS
AND KPUB...AFTER 09Z/FRI.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS
AT KCOS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 020520
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ATTM.

ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAINS....THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OF BACKSIDE ENERGY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
HELP DIG THE SYSTEM INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE TROUGH THEN LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 06Z AND
TO THE COLORADO AND KANSAS LINES AROUND 12Z.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO
ENOUGH UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO OVERCOME THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE AND DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS I-25
CORRIDOR...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 10K FT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7K FT OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AOA 9K FT AND A DUSTING TO UP TO AN 1 POSSIBLE
AOA 7K FT...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED WIND AND
BRIEF NATURE...WILL NOT GO WITH ANY FREEZE OR FROST HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TEENS AT THE PEAKS.

THERE COULD BY SOME TAIL END SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A RATHER COOL AND DRY CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...PLEASANT BUT UNEVENTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED...

IF YOU LIKE UNEXCITING WEATHER...YOU WILL LOVE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A STRONGLY POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL PERSIST...THANKS TO
A BLOCKING HIGH THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST. ORDINARILY A
FORECAST OF ZERO POPS FOR A 168 HOUR FORECAST IS PRETTY DARING...BUT
IT LOOKS PRETTY SOLID IN THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE EXPECTED BLOCK.
WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES IN NW
FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT AFTER THAT...EVEN CLOUDS WILL
BE HARD TO COME BY. ONLY CONCERN IS SOME NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS OVER
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY FRI MORNING. MAY REQUIRE A FROST OR
FREEZE HEADLINE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...SINCE FORECAST TEMPS
ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN EXPECT WARMING
UNDER THE RIDGE. NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP
US FROM GETTING TOO WARM NEXT WEEK...SO WE SHOULD SEE PLEASANT
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE LOWLANDS AND 50S-6S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NEXT CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIP PROBABLY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. UNTIL THEN...ENJOY THE UNEXCITING WEATHER! -ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

OUTSIDE OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND
KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 012106
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ATTM.

ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAINS....THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OF BACKSIDE ENERGY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
HELP DIG THE SYSTEM INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE TROUGH THEN LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 06Z AND
TO THE COLORADO AND KANSAS LINES AROUND 12Z.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO
ENOUGH UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO OVERCOME THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE AND DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS I-25
CORRIDOR...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 10K FT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7K FT OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AOA 9K FT AND A DUSTING TO UP TO AN 1 POSSIBLE
AOA 7K FT...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED WIND AND
BRIEF NATURE...WILL NOT GO WITH ANY FREEZE OR FROST HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TEENS AT THE PEAKS.

THERE COULD BY SOME TAIL END SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A RATHER COOL AND DRY CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...PLEASANT BUT UNEVENTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED...

IF YOU LIKE UNEXCITING WEATHER...YOU WILL LOVE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A STRONGLY POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL PERSIST...THANKS TO
A BLOCKING HIGH THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST. ORDINARILY A
FORECAST OF ZERO POPS FOR A 168 HOUR FORECAST IS PRETTY DARING...BUT
IT LOOKS PRETTY SOLID IN THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE EXPECTED BLOCK.
WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES IN NW
FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT AFTER THAT...EVEN CLOUDS WILL
BE HARD TO COME BY. ONLY CONCERN IS SOME NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS OVER
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY FRI MORNING. MAY REQUIRE A FROST OR
FREEZE HEADLINE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...SINCE FORECAST TEMPS
ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN EXPECT WARMING
UNDER THE RIDGE. NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP
US FROM GETTING TOO WARM NEXT WEEK...SO WE SHOULD SEE PLEASANT
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE LOWLANDS AND 50S-6S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NEXT CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIP PROBABLY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. UNTIL THEN...ENJOY THE UNEXCITING WEATHER! -ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FOR ALS AND
THOUGH 06Z FOR COS AND PUB. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30KTS TO COS AND PUB AFT 00Z WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 012106
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ATTM.

ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAINS....THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OF BACKSIDE ENERGY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
HELP DIG THE SYSTEM INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE TROUGH THEN LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 06Z AND
TO THE COLORADO AND KANSAS LINES AROUND 12Z.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO
ENOUGH UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO OVERCOME THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE AND DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS I-25
CORRIDOR...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 10K FT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7K FT OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AOA 9K FT AND A DUSTING TO UP TO AN 1 POSSIBLE
AOA 7K FT...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED WIND AND
BRIEF NATURE...WILL NOT GO WITH ANY FREEZE OR FROST HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TEENS AT THE PEAKS.

THERE COULD BY SOME TAIL END SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A RATHER COOL AND DRY CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...PLEASANT BUT UNEVENTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED...

IF YOU LIKE UNEXCITING WEATHER...YOU WILL LOVE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A STRONGLY POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL PERSIST...THANKS TO
A BLOCKING HIGH THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST. ORDINARILY A
FORECAST OF ZERO POPS FOR A 168 HOUR FORECAST IS PRETTY DARING...BUT
IT LOOKS PRETTY SOLID IN THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE EXPECTED BLOCK.
WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES IN NW
FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT AFTER THAT...EVEN CLOUDS WILL
BE HARD TO COME BY. ONLY CONCERN IS SOME NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS OVER
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY FRI MORNING. MAY REQUIRE A FROST OR
FREEZE HEADLINE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...SINCE FORECAST TEMPS
ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN EXPECT WARMING
UNDER THE RIDGE. NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP
US FROM GETTING TOO WARM NEXT WEEK...SO WE SHOULD SEE PLEASANT
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE LOWLANDS AND 50S-6S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NEXT CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIP PROBABLY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. UNTIL THEN...ENJOY THE UNEXCITING WEATHER! -ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FOR ALS AND
THOUGH 06Z FOR COS AND PUB. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30KTS TO COS AND PUB AFT 00Z WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011720
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED TO END THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVER THE VALLEY AND SHOULD BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS WITH
BRIEF MVRF CONDITIONS IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FOR ALS
AND AFT 21Z THOUGH 06Z FOR COS AND PUB. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30KTS TO COS AND PUB AFT 00Z
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.



&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011720
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED TO END THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVER THE VALLEY AND SHOULD BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS WITH
BRIEF MVRF CONDITIONS IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FOR ALS
AND AFT 21Z THOUGH 06Z FOR COS AND PUB. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30KTS TO COS AND PUB AFT 00Z
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.



&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 011356
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
756 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED TO END THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVER THE VALLEY AND SHOULD BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING.  CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 23Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL.  A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS.  REDUCED
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY
01Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS ACROSS
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 011356
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
756 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED TO END THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVER THE VALLEY AND SHOULD BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING.  CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 23Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL.  A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS.  REDUCED
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY
01Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS ACROSS
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
516 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING.  CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 23Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL.  A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS.  REDUCED
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY
01Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS ACROSS
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 011116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
516 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING.  CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 23Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL.  A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS.  REDUCED
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY
01Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS ACROSS
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010515
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.

OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010515
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.

OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 302119
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.

OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT
01Z. TAFS WILL MENTION VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFER 01Z. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE STATE TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KPUB 302119
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.

OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT
01Z. TAFS WILL MENTION VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFER 01Z. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE STATE TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...DANKERS





000
FXUS65 KPUB 301631
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FORTHCOMING. A TRAILING UPPER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO TODAY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PARK AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO DEVELOPS A
BAND OF SHOWERS OVER PUEBLO COUNTY AFTER 01Z...BUT THE RAP KEEPS
THE PLAINS DRY. WILL FAVOR THE RAP SOLUTION...SINCE IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LAST VORT MAX IN THE UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

WFO BOU WILL BE PROVIDING FULL SERVICE BACKUP FOR US TODAY
STARTING AT APPROXIMATELY 7 AM MDT WHILE WFO PUEBLO UNDERGOES
A MAJOR COMPUTER UPGRADE. WFO PUB SHOULD BE BACK IN CONTROL
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...

SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT A SEASONAL AIR MASS
TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  TODAY WILL BE A SEASONAL FALL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE ROUGHLY 10000 FEET TODAY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR SO POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL AND ABOVE.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BUT THIS WOULD
REALLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.  IN GENERAL...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CONTINUES TO LOOK
GOOD FOR THIS MORNING.  THE VALLEY HAS HAD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.  DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS BY MORNING...WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWS NEAR FREEZING...NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND THUS
A FROST.  THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER FROST TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND HOIST ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PLAINS. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK AND
KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 10 KFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. KALS COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS WILL SEE LESS WIND.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS/WFO BOULDER
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...DANKERS/WFO BOULDER





000
FXUS65 KPUB 301250
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

WFO BOU WILL BE PROVIDING FULL SERVICE BACKUP FOR US TODAY
STARTING AT APPROXIMATELY 7 AM MDT WHILE WFO PUEBLO UNDERGOES
A MAJOR COMPUTER UPGRADE. WFO PUB SHOULD BE BACK IN CONTROL
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...

SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT A SEASONAL AIR MASS
TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  TODAY WILL BE A SEASONAL FALL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE ROUGHLY 10000 FEET TODAY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR SO POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL AND ABOVE.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BUT THIS WOULD
REALLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.  IN GENERAL...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CONTINUES TO LOOK
GOOD FOR THIS MORNING.  THE VALLEY HAS HAD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.  DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS BY MORNING...WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWS NEAR FREEZING...NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND THUS
A FROST.  THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER FROST TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND HOIST ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PLAINS. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK AND
KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 10 KFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

GENERALLY A DRY WESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH VFR EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.  SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AT OR NEAR THE KALS
TERMINAL THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR SO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.  SAME THING COULD HAPPEN
AGAIN TONIGHT 08-14Z.

OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PORTION OF THE DIVIDE...DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...

SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT A SEASONAL AIR MASS
TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  TODAY WILL BE A SEASONAL FALL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE ROUGHLY 10000 FEET TODAY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR SO POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL AND ABOVE.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BUT THIS WOULD
REALLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.  IN GENERAL...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CONTINUES TO LOOK
GOOD FOR THIS MORNING.  THE VALLEY HAS HAD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.  DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS BY MORNING...WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWS NEAR FREEZING...NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND THUS
A FROST.  THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER FROST TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND HOIST ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PLAINS. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK AND
KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 10 KFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

GENERALLY A DRY WESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH VFR EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.  SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AT OR NEAR THE KALS
TERMINAL THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR SO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.  SAME THING COULD HAPPEN
AGAIN TONIGHT 08-14Z.

OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PORTION OF THE DIVIDE...DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 301004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...

SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT A SEASONAL AIR MASS
TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  TODAY WILL BE A SEASONAL FALL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE ROUGHLY 10000 FEET TODAY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR SO POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL AND ABOVE.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BUT THIS WOULD
REALLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.  IN GENERAL...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CONTINUES TO LOOK
GOOD FOR THIS MORNING.  THE VALLEY HAS HAD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.  DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS BY MORNING...WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWS NEAR FREEZING...NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND THUS
A FROST.  THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER FROST TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND HOIST ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PLAINS. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK AND
KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 10 KFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

GENERALLY A DRY WESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH VFR EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.  SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AT OR NEAR THE KALS
TERMINAL THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR SO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.  SAME THING COULD HAPPEN
AGAIN TONIGHT 08-14Z.

OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PORTION OF THE DIVIDE...DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300527
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP REMAINDER OF SVR WATCH WITH LATEST UPDATE..AND LOWER
POPS TO ISOLATED ALONG THE KS BORDER AS MAIN PORTION OF THE SQUALL
LINE HAS MOVED INTO KS. DID ADD BACK SOME LOW POPS TO NRN
TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW WRAP AROUND -SHRA WILL BRUSH
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RAMPART RANGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GROUND FOG AT KALS NEAR SUNRISE AS RAIN
FELL IN THE VALLEY TODAY. IF ANY OCCURS IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY PATCHY
AND BRIEF AND WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300527
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP REMAINDER OF SVR WATCH WITH LATEST UPDATE..AND LOWER
POPS TO ISOLATED ALONG THE KS BORDER AS MAIN PORTION OF THE SQUALL
LINE HAS MOVED INTO KS. DID ADD BACK SOME LOW POPS TO NRN
TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW WRAP AROUND -SHRA WILL BRUSH
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RAMPART RANGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GROUND FOG AT KALS NEAR SUNRISE AS RAIN
FELL IN THE VALLEY TODAY. IF ANY OCCURS IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY PATCHY
AND BRIEF AND WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 300300
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP REMAINDER OF SVR WATCH WITH LATEST UPDATE..AND LOWER
POPS TO ISOLATED ALONG THE KS BORDER AS MAIN PORTION OF THE SQUALL
LINE HAS MOVED INTO KS. DID ADD BACK SOME LOW POPS TO NRN
TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW WRAP AROUND -SHRA WILL BRUSH
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RAMPART RANGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING OVER ALS THROUGH 00Z AND
OVER COS AND PUB THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH 06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300300
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP REMAINDER OF SVR WATCH WITH LATEST UPDATE..AND LOWER
POPS TO ISOLATED ALONG THE KS BORDER AS MAIN PORTION OF THE SQUALL
LINE HAS MOVED INTO KS. DID ADD BACK SOME LOW POPS TO NRN
TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW WRAP AROUND -SHRA WILL BRUSH
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RAMPART RANGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING OVER ALS THROUGH 00Z AND
OVER COS AND PUB THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH 06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 300002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
602 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF FROST
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING OVER ALS THROUGH 00Z AND
OVER COS AND PUB THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH 06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 300002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
602 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF FROST
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING OVER ALS THROUGH 00Z AND
OVER COS AND PUB THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH 06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 292139
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
339 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF FROST
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING OVER ALS THROUGH 00Z AND
OVER COS AND PUB THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH 06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291726
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
PLAINS...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT EAST OF A LINE FROM LA
JUNTA TO KIM...A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...

...TEMPS BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT...

CURRENTLY...

A DEEP 500 MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NEVADA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIF. CLOSER TO HOME OVER THE
CWA...PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW WERE CONTINUING OVER THE SW SAN JUANS
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS NOTED ON THE PX1000 RADAR. OCCNL CG STRIKES
WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND EVEN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE EVEN CREPT ONTO THE PLAINS IN EL PASO
COUNTY. LOW CIGS WERE NOTED ON TOP OF THE PALMER DVD PER THE ELBERT
(KMNH) OB.

TODAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS LIKELY TODAY. AS SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE
DEEP TROUGH...EXPECT SYSTEM TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. 50+ DWPTS
ARE ALREADY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WHEN THE STRONG
KINEMATICS REACH THE INSTABILITY (~1000 J/KG OF CAPE) THIS
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THE
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE PLAINS MAY SEE SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...THE BEST SHEAR IS GOING TO OCCUR OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT AND BACA COUNTIES.
THE SIG TORNADO PARAMETER WAS RATHER HIGH...SO ROTATING STORMS...AND
A TORNADO OR TWO...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
FORCING...I DO EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP...AND
THE SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION.

EXPECT THE STRONGER CONVECTION TO GET GOING AROUND 20 UTC JUST ALONG
OR EAST OF I-25...WITH THE LINE ADVANCING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. THE CONVECTION MAY GO SEVERE RATHER RAPIDLY GIVEN THE
SHEAR AND FORCING. BY 00Z...EXPECT THE LINE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
FAR E PLAINS. I DO EXPECT WE WILL SEE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR THE
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

RESIDENTS IN ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND ESPECIALLY
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP WHILE SCHOOL IS STILL IN SESSION.

TONIGHT...

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS....AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KS DURING THE 02-04Z TIME
FRAME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER...COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH OR GO BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT. TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 28 AND 32F WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR THIS REGION FOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW
SPREADS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TO BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWER AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM GOING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH 60S TO 70S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH INTO COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CLEARING SOUTH AND EAST
BY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATING PRETTY COLD AIR MOVING INTO
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 9 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 60S TO 70S FOR THE PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...LOCATIONS OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH FROST AND
FREEZES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS WITH NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD ACROSS
THE WHOLE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE WITH 70S TO 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EACH AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING OVER ALS THROUGH 00Z
AND OVER COS AND PUB THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH 06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...23





000
FXUS65 KPUB 291726
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
PLAINS...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT EAST OF A LINE FROM LA
JUNTA TO KIM...A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...

...TEMPS BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT...

CURRENTLY...

A DEEP 500 MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NEVADA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIF. CLOSER TO HOME OVER THE
CWA...PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW WERE CONTINUING OVER THE SW SAN JUANS
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS NOTED ON THE PX1000 RADAR. OCCNL CG STRIKES
WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND EVEN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE EVEN CREPT ONTO THE PLAINS IN EL PASO
COUNTY. LOW CIGS WERE NOTED ON TOP OF THE PALMER DVD PER THE ELBERT
(KMNH) OB.

TODAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS LIKELY TODAY. AS SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE
DEEP TROUGH...EXPECT SYSTEM TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. 50+ DWPTS
ARE ALREADY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WHEN THE STRONG
KINEMATICS REACH THE INSTABILITY (~1000 J/KG OF CAPE) THIS
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THE
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE PLAINS MAY SEE SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...THE BEST SHEAR IS GOING TO OCCUR OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT AND BACA COUNTIES.
THE SIG TORNADO PARAMETER WAS RATHER HIGH...SO ROTATING STORMS...AND
A TORNADO OR TWO...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
FORCING...I DO EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP...AND
THE SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION.

EXPECT THE STRONGER CONVECTION TO GET GOING AROUND 20 UTC JUST ALONG
OR EAST OF I-25...WITH THE LINE ADVANCING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. THE CONVECTION MAY GO SEVERE RATHER RAPIDLY GIVEN THE
SHEAR AND FORCING. BY 00Z...EXPECT THE LINE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
FAR E PLAINS. I DO EXPECT WE WILL SEE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR THE
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

RESIDENTS IN ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND ESPECIALLY
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP WHILE SCHOOL IS STILL IN SESSION.

TONIGHT...

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS....AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KS DURING THE 02-04Z TIME
FRAME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER...COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH OR GO BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT. TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 28 AND 32F WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR THIS REGION FOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW
SPREADS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TO BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWER AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM GOING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH 60S TO 70S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH INTO COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CLEARING SOUTH AND EAST
BY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATING PRETTY COLD AIR MOVING INTO
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 9 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 60S TO 70S FOR THE PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...LOCATIONS OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH FROST AND
FREEZES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS WITH NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD ACROSS
THE WHOLE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE WITH 70S TO 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EACH AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING OVER ALS THROUGH 00Z
AND OVER COS AND PUB THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH 06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...23




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