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000
FXUS65 KPUB 020935 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
335 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.  IT APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS
OOMPH THOUGH AS WINDS BEHIND IT ARE NOT MUCH MORE THAN 8 KTS...
COMPARED TO SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WHEN A FEW MESONET SITES WERE SEEING
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KTS. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SE
PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THOUGH DON`T THINK IT WILL MUCH MORE THAN 5-10 KTS AT BEST.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER...AND MAY FILL IN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME WITH WEAK
OVERRUNNING. MODELS DISSIPATE THE STRATUS FOR MOST AREAS BY
15Z...THOUGH IT COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE.

FOR TODAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  WEAK
VORT MAX ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/WY
BORDER...BUT HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THIS FAR SOUTH.  REGARDLESS...SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED
SHOWERS/-TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  CONVECTION QUICKLY DISSIPATES
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  DEW POINTS LOOK PRETTY
LOW...AND WV SHOWS DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...SO THINK ANY STORMS
WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED.  FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OF
THE HIGH RES MODELS WITH MOSTLY SILENT POPS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE LA
GARITAS...NORTHERN SANGRES...AND WETS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE
DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

ACROSS THE PLAINS...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO CAPPED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...BUT DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST OF KLHX AS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD.  CAPES ARE QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2000 J/KG...BUT THINK WE
WILL LACK A TRIGGER TODAY SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT CATEGORY.
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
SHOT WITH SFC HEATING AND SOME CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG SFC TROF
AXIS OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING.  TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS
REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT AS SFC
LOW KICKS EASTWARD...THINK THIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AFTER 06Z AS LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP.  MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEP IT DRY OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME SILENT POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES FOR NOW.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...HOT WEDNESDAY...THEN COOLER AND WETTER...

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE HOT FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPS THAT ARE NORMALLY IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE NEAR OR AT 100F BY MID
AFTERNOON. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AOA 18C AND A GOOD LEE TROUGH...THESE
MAX TEMP VALUES LOOK REALISTIC. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING ONE OR TWO
HIGH BASED TSRA OVER FAR SE CO ASSOCIATED WITH SOME INCREASING MID
LVL MOISTURE...AND IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY COULD PRODUCE QUITE
GUSTY WINDS.

THURSDAY A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING DOWN TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES ALTHOUGH WE STILL
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST PLACES. UPSLOPE MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED UP FROM THE SW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THU EVENING...A WEAK MCS COULD
BE ROLLING ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. THIS WEAK MCS IS SHOWN BY ALL 3
MODELS.

FRIDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AS
UPSLOPE CONTINUES AT LLVLS AND MID LVL MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS UP
FROM THE SW. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE
ALONG THE E FACE OF THE S MTNS AND RATON MESA REGION...AND POPS ARE
DRAWN UP HIGHEST IN THESE REGIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING AOA 80F ACROSS THE
PLAINS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BURN SCARS ON
THIS DAY.

WEEKEND...LOOKS COOL AND WET ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE E FACINGS LOPES/ADJ PLAINS OF S MTNS AND
RATON MESA REGION FOR SAT...WHILE SUNDAY THE INTERIOR MTNS MAY HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP AS A GOOD CHUNK OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FCST TO MOVE UP FROM THE SW. MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE THESE DAYS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING STARTING AT THE END OF THIS
WEEK...ONE THING THAT ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS IS FLOW WILL BE RATHER
BRISK ALOFT SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD
CLIP. LIKEWISE...WE WILL SEE SOME SHEAR BY LATE WEEK LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME ORGANIZED ROTATING LATE SEASON CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CAPE MAY BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE COOLER TEMPS.

OVERALL...EXPECT COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY LATE THU LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
15Z...FLIRTING WITH THE KCOS TERMINAL THIS MORNING.  IT COULD END UP
BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN EL
PASO AND EASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES AND POINTS EASTWARD.  ALREADY HAVE
BKN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AS OF 09Z...AND MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS AS WELL.  MAJORITY OF STRATUS SHOULD ERODE BY
15Z ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND NOT LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS.  BREEZY SOUTH TO SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER MTS.  STRATUS MAY RETURN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z...THOUGH APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO STAY EAST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020935 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
335 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.  IT APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS
OOMPH THOUGH AS WINDS BEHIND IT ARE NOT MUCH MORE THAN 8 KTS...
COMPARED TO SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WHEN A FEW MESONET SITES WERE SEEING
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KTS. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SE
PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THOUGH DON`T THINK IT WILL MUCH MORE THAN 5-10 KTS AT BEST.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER...AND MAY FILL IN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME WITH WEAK
OVERRUNNING. MODELS DISSIPATE THE STRATUS FOR MOST AREAS BY
15Z...THOUGH IT COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE.

FOR TODAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  WEAK
VORT MAX ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/WY
BORDER...BUT HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THIS FAR SOUTH.  REGARDLESS...SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED
SHOWERS/-TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  CONVECTION QUICKLY DISSIPATES
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  DEW POINTS LOOK PRETTY
LOW...AND WV SHOWS DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...SO THINK ANY STORMS
WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED.  FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OF
THE HIGH RES MODELS WITH MOSTLY SILENT POPS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE LA
GARITAS...NORTHERN SANGRES...AND WETS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE
DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

ACROSS THE PLAINS...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO CAPPED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...BUT DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST OF KLHX AS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD.  CAPES ARE QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2000 J/KG...BUT THINK WE
WILL LACK A TRIGGER TODAY SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT CATEGORY.
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
SHOT WITH SFC HEATING AND SOME CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG SFC TROF
AXIS OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING.  TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS
REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT AS SFC
LOW KICKS EASTWARD...THINK THIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AFTER 06Z AS LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP.  MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEP IT DRY OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME SILENT POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES FOR NOW.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...HOT WEDNESDAY...THEN COOLER AND WETTER...

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE HOT FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPS THAT ARE NORMALLY IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE NEAR OR AT 100F BY MID
AFTERNOON. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AOA 18C AND A GOOD LEE TROUGH...THESE
MAX TEMP VALUES LOOK REALISTIC. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING ONE OR TWO
HIGH BASED TSRA OVER FAR SE CO ASSOCIATED WITH SOME INCREASING MID
LVL MOISTURE...AND IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY COULD PRODUCE QUITE
GUSTY WINDS.

THURSDAY A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING DOWN TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES ALTHOUGH WE STILL
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST PLACES. UPSLOPE MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED UP FROM THE SW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THU EVENING...A WEAK MCS COULD
BE ROLLING ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. THIS WEAK MCS IS SHOWN BY ALL 3
MODELS.

FRIDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AS
UPSLOPE CONTINUES AT LLVLS AND MID LVL MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS UP
FROM THE SW. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE
ALONG THE E FACE OF THE S MTNS AND RATON MESA REGION...AND POPS ARE
DRAWN UP HIGHEST IN THESE REGIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING AOA 80F ACROSS THE
PLAINS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BURN SCARS ON
THIS DAY.

WEEKEND...LOOKS COOL AND WET ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE E FACINGS LOPES/ADJ PLAINS OF S MTNS AND
RATON MESA REGION FOR SAT...WHILE SUNDAY THE INTERIOR MTNS MAY HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP AS A GOOD CHUNK OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FCST TO MOVE UP FROM THE SW. MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE THESE DAYS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING STARTING AT THE END OF THIS
WEEK...ONE THING THAT ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS IS FLOW WILL BE RATHER
BRISK ALOFT SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD
CLIP. LIKEWISE...WE WILL SEE SOME SHEAR BY LATE WEEK LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME ORGANIZED ROTATING LATE SEASON CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CAPE MAY BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE COOLER TEMPS.

OVERALL...EXPECT COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY LATE THU LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
15Z...FLIRTING WITH THE KCOS TERMINAL THIS MORNING.  IT COULD END UP
BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN EL
PASO AND EASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES AND POINTS EASTWARD.  ALREADY HAVE
BKN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AS OF 09Z...AND MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS AS WELL.  MAJORITY OF STRATUS SHOULD ERODE BY
15Z ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND NOT LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS.  BREEZY SOUTH TO SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER MTS.  STRATUS MAY RETURN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z...THOUGH APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO STAY EAST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 020935
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
335 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.  IT APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS
UMPH THOUGH AS WINDS BEHIND IT ARE NOT MUCH MORE THAN 8 KTS...
COMPARED TO SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WHEN A FEW MESONET SITES WERE SEEING
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KTS.  NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SE
PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THOUGH DON`T THINK IT WILL MUCH MORE THAN 5-10 KTS AT BEST.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...AND
MAY FILL IN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING. MODELS
DISSIPATE THE STRATUS FOR MOST AREAS BY 15Z...THOUGH IT COULD HANG
ON A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.

FOR TODAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  WEAK
VORT MAX ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/WY
BORDER...BUT HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THIS FAR SOUTH.  REGARDLESS...SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED
SHOWERS/-TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  CONVECTION QUICKLY DISSIPATES
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  DEW POINTS LOOK PRETTY
LOW...AND WV SHOWS DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...SO THINK ANY STORMS
WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED.  FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OF
THE HIGH RES MODELS WITH MOSTLY SILENT POPS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE LA
GARITAS...NORTHERN SANGRES...AND WETS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE
DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

ACROSS THE PLAINS...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO CAPPED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...BUT DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST OF KLHX AS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD.  CAPES ARE QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2000 J/KG...BUT THINK WE
WILL LACK A TRIGGER TODAY SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT CATEGORY.
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
SHOT WITH SFC HEATING AND SOME CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG SFC TROF
AXIS OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING.  TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS
REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT AS SFC
LOW KICKS EASTWARD...THINK THIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AFTER 06Z AS LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP.  MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEP IT DRY OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME SILENT POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES FOR NOW.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...HOT WEDNESDAY...THEN COOLER AND WETTER...

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE HOT FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPS THAT ARE NORMALLY IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE NEAR OR AT 100F BY MID
AFTERNOON. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AOA 18C AND A GOOD LEE TROUGH...THESE
MAX TEMP VALUES LOOK REALISTIC. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING ONE OR TWO
HIGH BASED TSRA OVER FAR SE CO ASSOCIATED WITH SOME INCREASING MID
LVL MOISTURE...AND IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY COULD PRODUCE QUITE
GUSTY WINDS.

THURSDAY A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING DOWN TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES ALTHOUGH WE STILL
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST PLACES. UPSLOPE MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED UP FROM THE SW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THU EVENING...A WEAK MCS COULD
BE ROLLING ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. THIS WEAK MCS IS SHOWN BY ALL 3
MODELS.

FRIDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AS
UPSLOPE CONTINUES AT LLVLS AND MID LVL MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS UP
FROM THE SW. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE
ALONG THE E FACE OF THE S MTNS AND RATON MESA REGION...AND POPS ARE
DRAWN UP HIGHEST IN THESE REGIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING AOA 80F ACROSS THE
PLAINS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BURN SCARS ON
THIS DAY.

WEEKEND...LOOKS COOL AND WET ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE E FACINGS LOPES/ADJ PLAINS OF S MTNS AND
RATON MESA REGION FOR SAT...WHILE SUNDAY THE INTERIOR MTNS MAY HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP AS A GOOD CHUNK OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FCST TO MOVE UP FROM THE SW. MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE THESE DAYS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING STARTING AT THE END OF THIS
WEEK...ONE THING THAT ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS IS FLOW WILL BE RATHER
BRISK ALOFT SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD
CLIP. LIKEWISE...WE WILL SEE SOME SHEAR BY LATE WEEK LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME ORGANIZED ROTATING LATE SEASON CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CAPE MAY BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE COOLER TEMPS.

OVERALL...EXPECT COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY LATE THU LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
15Z...FLIRTING WITH THE KCOS TERMINAL THIS MORNING.  IT COULD END UP
BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN EL
PASO AND EASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES AND POINTS EASTWARD.  ALREADY HAVE
BKN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AS OF 09Z...AND MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS AS WELL.  MAJORITY OF STRATUS SHOULD ERODE BY
15Z ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND NOT LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS.  BREEZY SOUTH TO SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER MTS.  STRATUS MAY RETURN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z...THOUGH APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO STAY EAST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020935
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
335 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.  IT APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS
UMPH THOUGH AS WINDS BEHIND IT ARE NOT MUCH MORE THAN 8 KTS...
COMPARED TO SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WHEN A FEW MESONET SITES WERE SEEING
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KTS.  NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SE
PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THOUGH DON`T THINK IT WILL MUCH MORE THAN 5-10 KTS AT BEST.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...AND
MAY FILL IN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING. MODELS
DISSIPATE THE STRATUS FOR MOST AREAS BY 15Z...THOUGH IT COULD HANG
ON A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.

FOR TODAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  WEAK
VORT MAX ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/WY
BORDER...BUT HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THIS FAR SOUTH.  REGARDLESS...SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED
SHOWERS/-TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  CONVECTION QUICKLY DISSIPATES
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  DEW POINTS LOOK PRETTY
LOW...AND WV SHOWS DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...SO THINK ANY STORMS
WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED.  FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OF
THE HIGH RES MODELS WITH MOSTLY SILENT POPS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE LA
GARITAS...NORTHERN SANGRES...AND WETS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE
DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

ACROSS THE PLAINS...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO CAPPED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...BUT DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST OF KLHX AS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD.  CAPES ARE QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2000 J/KG...BUT THINK WE
WILL LACK A TRIGGER TODAY SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT CATEGORY.
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
SHOT WITH SFC HEATING AND SOME CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG SFC TROF
AXIS OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING.  TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS
REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT AS SFC
LOW KICKS EASTWARD...THINK THIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AFTER 06Z AS LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP.  MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEP IT DRY OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME SILENT POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES FOR NOW.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...HOT WEDNESDAY...THEN COOLER AND WETTER...

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE HOT FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPS THAT ARE NORMALLY IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE NEAR OR AT 100F BY MID
AFTERNOON. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AOA 18C AND A GOOD LEE TROUGH...THESE
MAX TEMP VALUES LOOK REALISTIC. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING ONE OR TWO
HIGH BASED TSRA OVER FAR SE CO ASSOCIATED WITH SOME INCREASING MID
LVL MOISTURE...AND IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY COULD PRODUCE QUITE
GUSTY WINDS.

THURSDAY A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING DOWN TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES ALTHOUGH WE STILL
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST PLACES. UPSLOPE MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED UP FROM THE SW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THU EVENING...A WEAK MCS COULD
BE ROLLING ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. THIS WEAK MCS IS SHOWN BY ALL 3
MODELS.

FRIDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AS
UPSLOPE CONTINUES AT LLVLS AND MID LVL MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS UP
FROM THE SW. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE
ALONG THE E FACE OF THE S MTNS AND RATON MESA REGION...AND POPS ARE
DRAWN UP HIGHEST IN THESE REGIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING AOA 80F ACROSS THE
PLAINS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BURN SCARS ON
THIS DAY.

WEEKEND...LOOKS COOL AND WET ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE E FACINGS LOPES/ADJ PLAINS OF S MTNS AND
RATON MESA REGION FOR SAT...WHILE SUNDAY THE INTERIOR MTNS MAY HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP AS A GOOD CHUNK OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FCST TO MOVE UP FROM THE SW. MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE THESE DAYS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING STARTING AT THE END OF THIS
WEEK...ONE THING THAT ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS IS FLOW WILL BE RATHER
BRISK ALOFT SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD
CLIP. LIKEWISE...WE WILL SEE SOME SHEAR BY LATE WEEK LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME ORGANIZED ROTATING LATE SEASON CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CAPE MAY BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE COOLER TEMPS.

OVERALL...EXPECT COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY LATE THU LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
15Z...FLIRTING WITH THE KCOS TERMINAL THIS MORNING.  IT COULD END UP
BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN EL
PASO AND EASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES AND POINTS EASTWARD.  ALREADY HAVE
BKN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AS OF 09Z...AND MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS AS WELL.  MAJORITY OF STRATUS SHOULD ERODE BY
15Z ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND NOT LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS.  BREEZY SOUTH TO SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER MTS.  STRATUS MAY RETURN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z...THOUGH APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO STAY EAST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT





000
FXUS65 KPUB 020510
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED TO PULL POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING BASED ON
RADAR AND RECENT HI-RES MODEL DATA.  MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE
TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND LOCALIZED LOW-
GRADE POPS.

CWFA EXPERIENCING NEAR SEASONAL SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABLE
CLOUDS NOTED OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT TIMES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FAR NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WELL NORTH OF OUR CWFA.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...REAL-TIME DATA AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RECENT HRRR MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THREATEN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL
PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NOTED OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

GUSTY...PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WHILE ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN
COOLER WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW.  COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THEN...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY DRY LINE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS
HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOW BUT
THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS ALIVE.

ON THURSDAY...THINGS START TO TRANSITION TO A COOLER...WETTER
PATTERN.  MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING.  IT STARTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION AS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...MOIST UPSLOPE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY FIRE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH WORK EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH ADDED MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS DAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME RICH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AT TIMES...JUST DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TRACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  RIGHT NOW...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BOTH BE PRETTY WET OVER THE REGION WITH CONCERNS OF
FLASH FLOODING.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK PRETTY WET FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PLAINS LOOK MORE STABLE WITH LESS ACTIVITY.  ALL
OF THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND HIGHLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACT AT KALS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020510
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED TO PULL POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING BASED ON
RADAR AND RECENT HI-RES MODEL DATA.  MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE
TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND LOCALIZED LOW-
GRADE POPS.

CWFA EXPERIENCING NEAR SEASONAL SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABLE
CLOUDS NOTED OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT TIMES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FAR NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WELL NORTH OF OUR CWFA.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...REAL-TIME DATA AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RECENT HRRR MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THREATEN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL
PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NOTED OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

GUSTY...PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WHILE ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN
COOLER WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW.  COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THEN...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY DRY LINE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS
HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOW BUT
THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS ALIVE.

ON THURSDAY...THINGS START TO TRANSITION TO A COOLER...WETTER
PATTERN.  MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING.  IT STARTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION AS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...MOIST UPSLOPE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY FIRE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH WORK EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH ADDED MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS DAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME RICH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AT TIMES...JUST DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TRACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  RIGHT NOW...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BOTH BE PRETTY WET OVER THE REGION WITH CONCERNS OF
FLASH FLOODING.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK PRETTY WET FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PLAINS LOOK MORE STABLE WITH LESS ACTIVITY.  ALL
OF THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND HIGHLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACT AT KALS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 020014
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED TO PULL POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING BASED ON
RADAR AND RECENT HI-RES MODEL DATA.  MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE
TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND LOCALIZED LOW-
GRADE POPS.

CWFA EXPERIENCING NEAR SEASONAL SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABLE
CLOUDS NOTED OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT TIMES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FAR NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WELL NORTH OF OUR CWFA.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...REAL-TIME DATA AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RECENT HRRR MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THREATEN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL
PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NOTED OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

GUSTY...PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WHILE ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN
COOLER WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW.  COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THEN...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY DRY LINE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS
HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOW BUT
THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS ALIVE.

ON THURSDAY...THINGS START TO TRANSITION TO A COOLER...WETTER
PATTERN.  MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING.  IT STARTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION AS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...MOIST UPSLOPE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY FIRE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH WORK EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH ADDED MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS DAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME RICH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AT TIMES...JUST DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TRACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  RIGHT NOW...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BOTH BE PRETTY WET OVER THE REGION WITH CONCERNS OF
FLASH FLOODING.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK PRETTY WET FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PLAINS LOOK MORE STABLE WITH LESS ACTIVITY.  ALL
OF THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND HIGHLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 020014
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED TO PULL POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING BASED ON
RADAR AND RECENT HI-RES MODEL DATA.  MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE
TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND LOCALIZED LOW-
GRADE POPS.

CWFA EXPERIENCING NEAR SEASONAL SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABLE
CLOUDS NOTED OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT TIMES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FAR NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WELL NORTH OF OUR CWFA.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...REAL-TIME DATA AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RECENT HRRR MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THREATEN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL
PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NOTED OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

GUSTY...PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WHILE ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN
COOLER WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW.  COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THEN...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY DRY LINE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS
HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOW BUT
THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS ALIVE.

ON THURSDAY...THINGS START TO TRANSITION TO A COOLER...WETTER
PATTERN.  MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING.  IT STARTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION AS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...MOIST UPSLOPE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY FIRE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH WORK EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH ADDED MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS DAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME RICH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AT TIMES...JUST DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TRACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  RIGHT NOW...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BOTH BE PRETTY WET OVER THE REGION WITH CONCERNS OF
FLASH FLOODING.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK PRETTY WET FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PLAINS LOOK MORE STABLE WITH LESS ACTIVITY.  ALL
OF THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND HIGHLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 012111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE
TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND LOCALIZED LOW-
GRADE POPS.

CWFA EXPERIENCING NEAR SEASONAL SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABLE
CLOUDS NOTED OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT TIMES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FAR NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WELL NORTH OF OUR CWFA.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...REAL-TIME DATA AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RECENT HRRR MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THREATEN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL
PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NOTED OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

GUSTY...PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WHILE ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN
COOLER WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW.  COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THEN...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY DRY LINE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS
HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOW BUT
THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS ALIVE.

ON THURSDAY...THINGS START TO TRANSITION TO A COOLER...WETTER
PATTERN.  MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING.  IT STARTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION AS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...MOIST UPSLOPE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY FIRE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH WORK EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH ADDED MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS DAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME RICH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AT TIMES...JUST DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TRACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  RIGHT NOW...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BOTH BE PRETTY WET OVER THE REGION WITH CONCERNS OF
FLASH FLOODING.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK PRETTY WET FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PLAINS LOOK MORE STABLE WITH LESS ACTIVITY.  ALL
OF THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND HIGHLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 012111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE
TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND LOCALIZED LOW-
GRADE POPS.

CWFA EXPERIENCING NEAR SEASONAL SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABLE
CLOUDS NOTED OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT TIMES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FAR NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WELL NORTH OF OUR CWFA.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...REAL-TIME DATA AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RECENT HRRR MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THREATEN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL
PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NOTED OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

GUSTY...PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WHILE ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN
COOLER WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW.  COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THEN...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY DRY LINE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS
HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOW BUT
THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS ALIVE.

ON THURSDAY...THINGS START TO TRANSITION TO A COOLER...WETTER
PATTERN.  MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING.  IT STARTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION AS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...MOIST UPSLOPE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY FIRE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH WORK EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH ADDED MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS DAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME RICH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AT TIMES...JUST DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TRACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  RIGHT NOW...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BOTH BE PRETTY WET OVER THE REGION WITH CONCERNS OF
FLASH FLOODING.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK PRETTY WET FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PLAINS LOOK MORE STABLE WITH LESS ACTIVITY.  ALL
OF THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND HIGHLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011708
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE. DRIER AIR MASS WILL COVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT...ELIMINATING THE CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. EASTERN PLAINS WILL
SEE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WITH
SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH...COULD SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS NEAR THE KS BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING. MAX TEMPS TODAY RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011708
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE. DRIER AIR MASS WILL COVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT...ELIMINATING THE CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. EASTERN PLAINS WILL
SEE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WITH
SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH...COULD SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS NEAR THE KS BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING. MAX TEMPS TODAY RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 011358 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE. DRIER AIR MASS WILL COVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT...ELIMINATING THE CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. EASTERN PLAINS WILL
SEE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WITH
SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH...COULD SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS NEAR THE KS BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING. MAX TEMPS TODAY RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANY TSRA
LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 011358 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE. DRIER AIR MASS WILL COVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT...ELIMINATING THE CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. EASTERN PLAINS WILL
SEE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WITH
SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH...COULD SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS NEAR THE KS BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING. MAX TEMPS TODAY RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANY TSRA
LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 010506
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RADAR INDICATES
A DOWNWARD TREND IN ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010506
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RADAR INDICATES
A DOWNWARD TREND IN ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 010302
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
902 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RADAR INDICATES
A DOWNWARD TREND IN ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 010302
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
902 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RADAR INDICATES
A DOWNWARD TREND IN ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 312126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 312126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS65 KPUB 311708
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING...AND WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO BE RATHER
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING
MOUNTAIN AREAS SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS. BY EARLY
EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...POSSIBLY SPARKING A COUPLE TSRA ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. BY
MIDNIGHT...FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY
CONVECTION PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE UPWARD WITH DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. W-SW
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH SENDS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FRONT ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL TRYING
TO INDICATE POSSIBLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA CONTINUES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLE WAA AIDING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS PAC NW TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AND IS
PRINTING OUT MORE QPF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OWNING TO A
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE EC AGAIN WETTER THAN THE GFS AS IT IS
INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AT ANY RATE...MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS PROJECTED TO BE
PUSHING INTO AND ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
GENERATING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPUB 311708
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING...AND WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO BE RATHER
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING
MOUNTAIN AREAS SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS. BY EARLY
EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...POSSIBLY SPARKING A COUPLE TSRA ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. BY
MIDNIGHT...FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY
CONVECTION PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE UPWARD WITH DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. W-SW
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH SENDS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FRONT ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL TRYING
TO INDICATE POSSIBLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA CONTINUES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLE WAA AIDING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS PAC NW TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AND IS
PRINTING OUT MORE QPF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OWNING TO A
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE EC AGAIN WETTER THAN THE GFS AS IT IS
INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AT ANY RATE...MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS PROJECTED TO BE
PUSHING INTO AND ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
GENERATING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 311019
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING...AND WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO BE RATHER
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING
MOUNTAIN AREAS SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS. BY EARLY
EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...POSSIBLY SPARKING A COUPLE TSRA ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. BY
MIDNIGHT...FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY
CONVECTION PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE UPWARD WITH DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. W-SW
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS MANY AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH SENDS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FRONT ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL TRYING
TO INDICATE POSSIBLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA CONTINUES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLE WAA AIDING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS PAC NW TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AND IS
PRINTING OUT MORE QPF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OWNING TO A
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE EC AGAIN WETTER THAN THE GFS AS IT IS
INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AT ANY RATE...MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...CLOSER
TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. BY EARLY
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHICH MAY
BRING ISOLATED TSRA TO AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER UNTIL 06Z.
MOST STORMS TODAY WILL BE HIGH BASED...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE TO0 LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 311019
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING...AND WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO BE RATHER
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING
MOUNTAIN AREAS SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS. BY EARLY
EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...POSSIBLY SPARKING A COUPLE TSRA ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. BY
MIDNIGHT...FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY
CONVECTION PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE UPWARD WITH DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. W-SW
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS MANY AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH SENDS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FRONT ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL TRYING
TO INDICATE POSSIBLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA CONTINUES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLE WAA AIDING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS PAC NW TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AND IS
PRINTING OUT MORE QPF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OWNING TO A
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE EC AGAIN WETTER THAN THE GFS AS IT IS
INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AT ANY RATE...MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...CLOSER
TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. BY EARLY
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHICH MAY
BRING ISOLATED TSRA TO AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER UNTIL 06Z.
MOST STORMS TODAY WILL BE HIGH BASED...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE TO0 LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN





000
FXUS65 KPUB 310512
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...AND A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
OVER EL PASO COUNTY...EAST POSSIBLY CLIPPING CROWLEY AND KIOWA
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES CROSSING FROM UTAH
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE AIR FAIRLY DRY WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...AND 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE
CORRIDOR.  STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-25 MPH. MOISTURE
ALOFT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.  SO...FEELING IS THAT PRIMARY STORM
THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO ABOUT
45-50 MPH. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THIS RANGE...CAN STILL GET SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOPEFULLY...ANY OF THESE WILL MISS THE BURN SCARS THIS EVENING.
COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY EVERYWHERE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT
OTHERWISE NICE CONDITIONS.  THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...ALLOWING AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  MODELS
BRING THIS DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH SOME POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND
PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS.  MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH PUNCH TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY SO THIS MAY BECOME THE AREA OF GREATEST STORM
POTENTIAL.  OF COURSE...THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS
ARE IN THAT VICINITY...SO CLOSE MONITORING FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE.  FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...THE PRIME THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NOT MANY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS
PRIMARY ISSUES CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND BASICALLY
LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

GENERALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NORTH TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE SURGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...ALLOWING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FLOW
INTO MANY SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND BULK SHEARS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...-7C AND
40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS STILL PROJECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND 19C AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED AT EACH SITE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE THREATS TO KALS AND KCOS
WILL BE LOW...WITH NO THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT KPUB.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 310512
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...AND A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
OVER EL PASO COUNTY...EAST POSSIBLY CLIPPING CROWLEY AND KIOWA
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES CROSSING FROM UTAH
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE AIR FAIRLY DRY WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...AND 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE
CORRIDOR.  STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-25 MPH. MOISTURE
ALOFT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.  SO...FEELING IS THAT PRIMARY STORM
THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO ABOUT
45-50 MPH. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THIS RANGE...CAN STILL GET SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOPEFULLY...ANY OF THESE WILL MISS THE BURN SCARS THIS EVENING.
COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY EVERYWHERE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT
OTHERWISE NICE CONDITIONS.  THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...ALLOWING AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  MODELS
BRING THIS DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH SOME POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND
PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS.  MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH PUNCH TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY SO THIS MAY BECOME THE AREA OF GREATEST STORM
POTENTIAL.  OF COURSE...THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS
ARE IN THAT VICINITY...SO CLOSE MONITORING FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE.  FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...THE PRIME THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NOT MANY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS
PRIMARY ISSUES CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND BASICALLY
LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

GENERALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NORTH TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE SURGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...ALLOWING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FLOW
INTO MANY SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND BULK SHEARS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...-7C AND
40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS STILL PROJECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND 19C AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED AT EACH SITE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE THREATS TO KALS AND KCOS
WILL BE LOW...WITH NO THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT KPUB.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 310253
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
853 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...AND A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
OVER EL PASO COUNTY...EAST POSSIBLY CLIPPING CROWLEY AND KIOWA
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES CROSSING FROM UTAH
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE AIR FAIRLY DRY WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...AND 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE
CORRIDOR.  STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-25 MPH. MOISTURE
ALOFT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.  SO...FEELING IS THAT PRIMARY STORM
THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO ABOUT
45-50 MPH. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THIS RANGE...CAN STILL GET SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOPEFULLY...ANY OF THESE WILL MISS THE BURN SCARS THIS EVENING.
COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY EVERYWHERE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT
OTHERWISE NICE CONDITIONS.  THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...ALLOWING AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  MODELS
BRING THIS DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH SOME POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND
PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS.  MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH PUNCH TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY SO THIS MAY BECOME THE AREA OF GREATEST STORM
POTENTIAL.  OF COURSE...THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS
ARE IN THAT VICINITY...SO CLOSE MONITORING FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE.  FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...THE PRIME THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NOT MANY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS
PRIMARY ISSUES CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND BASICALLY
LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

GENERALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NORTH TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE SURGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...ALLOWING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FLOW
INTO MANY SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND BULK SHEARS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...-7C AND
40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS STILL PROJECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND 19C AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. WITH MOISTURE
LACKING...MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.  BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS AT KCOS...BUT WON`T
CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO
LOW.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRY START TO THE DAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND. DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TO THE PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY LATE IN THE DAY.  THIS COULD BE
THE PRIME FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGIONS LATE IN THE DAY.  FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS SHOULD BE OF THE
HIGHER AND DRIER VARIETY...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT FOR STORMS TO0 LOW TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 310253
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
853 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...AND A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
OVER EL PASO COUNTY...EAST POSSIBLY CLIPPING CROWLEY AND KIOWA
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES CROSSING FROM UTAH
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE AIR FAIRLY DRY WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...AND 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE
CORRIDOR.  STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-25 MPH. MOISTURE
ALOFT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.  SO...FEELING IS THAT PRIMARY STORM
THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO ABOUT
45-50 MPH. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THIS RANGE...CAN STILL GET SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOPEFULLY...ANY OF THESE WILL MISS THE BURN SCARS THIS EVENING.
COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY EVERYWHERE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT
OTHERWISE NICE CONDITIONS.  THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...ALLOWING AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  MODELS
BRING THIS DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH SOME POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND
PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS.  MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH PUNCH TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY SO THIS MAY BECOME THE AREA OF GREATEST STORM
POTENTIAL.  OF COURSE...THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS
ARE IN THAT VICINITY...SO CLOSE MONITORING FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE.  FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...THE PRIME THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NOT MANY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS
PRIMARY ISSUES CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND BASICALLY
LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

GENERALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NORTH TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE SURGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...ALLOWING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FLOW
INTO MANY SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND BULK SHEARS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...-7C AND
40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS STILL PROJECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND 19C AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. WITH MOISTURE
LACKING...MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.  BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS AT KCOS...BUT WON`T
CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO
LOW.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRY START TO THE DAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND. DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TO THE PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY LATE IN THE DAY.  THIS COULD BE
THE PRIME FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGIONS LATE IN THE DAY.  FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS SHOULD BE OF THE
HIGHER AND DRIER VARIETY...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT FOR STORMS TO0 LOW TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY





000
FXUS65 KPUB 302123
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
323 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES CROSSING FROM UTAH
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE AIR FAIRLY DRY WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...AND 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE
CORRIDOR.  STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-25 MPH. MOISTURE
ALOFT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.  SO...FEELING IS THAT PRIMARY STORM
THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO ABOUT
45-50 MPH. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THIS RANGE...CAN STILL GET SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOPEFULLY...ANY OF THESE WILL MISS THE BURN SCARS THIS EVENING.
COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY EVERYWHERE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT
OTHERWISE NICE CONDITIONS.  THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...ALLOWING AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  MODELS
BRING THIS DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH SOME POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND
PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS.  MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH PUNCH TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY SO THIS MAY BECOME THE AREA OF GREATEST STORM
POTENTIAL.  OF COURSE...THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS
ARE IN THAT VICINITY...SO CLOSE MONITORING FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE.  FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...THE PRIME THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NOT MANY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS
PRIMARY ISSUES CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND BASICALLY
LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

GENERALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NORTH TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE SURGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...ALLOWING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FLOW
INTO MANY SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND BULK SHEARS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...-7C AND
40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS STILL PROJECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND 19C AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. WITH MOISTURE
LACKING...MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.  BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS AT KCOS...BUT WON`T
CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO
LOW.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRY START TO THE DAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND. DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TO THE PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY LATE IN THE DAY.  THIS COULD BE
THE PRIME FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGIONS LATE IN THE DAY.  FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS SHOULD BE OF THE
HIGHER AND DRIER VARIETY...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT FOR STORMS TO0 LOW TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301704
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1104 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERN END OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
PLENTIFUL THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO STAY
FAIRLY ISOLATED DESPITE THE WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.
STEERING CURRENTS SILL FAVORABLE TO PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO
THE PLAINS...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SUSPECT STORMS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS TODAY A DEGF OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE QUICKLY
AS ANY UPPER FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD. AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS AHEAD OF NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH...SUSPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS....AND NUDGED MIN T GRID
UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SUNDAY...TROUGH PASSES MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE
INTO KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AND HAS A NARROW
RIBBON OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER KIOWA COUNTY. SUSPECT THE
NAM IS POOLING TOO MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.

.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH PASSED
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER MONDAY
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. FOLLOWED
LEAD OF SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. NAM SUGGESTS MODEST CAPES IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB. FURTHER
WEST...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS A GOOD IDEA OF INCREASING POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MODESTLY WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...BUT STILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE AVERAGE. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...MAIN IMPACT OF ANY TSRA WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TSRA IS AT KCOS...BUT
WON`T CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW





000
FXUS65 KPUB 301704
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1104 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERN END OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
PLENTIFUL THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO STAY
FAIRLY ISOLATED DESPITE THE WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.
STEERING CURRENTS SILL FAVORABLE TO PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO
THE PLAINS...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SUSPECT STORMS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS TODAY A DEGF OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE QUICKLY
AS ANY UPPER FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD. AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS AHEAD OF NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH...SUSPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS....AND NUDGED MIN T GRID
UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SUNDAY...TROUGH PASSES MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE
INTO KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AND HAS A NARROW
RIBBON OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER KIOWA COUNTY. SUSPECT THE
NAM IS POOLING TOO MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.

.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH PASSED
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER MONDAY
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. FOLLOWED
LEAD OF SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. NAM SUGGESTS MODEST CAPES IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB. FURTHER
WEST...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS A GOOD IDEA OF INCREASING POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MODESTLY WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...BUT STILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE AVERAGE. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...MAIN IMPACT OF ANY TSRA WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TSRA IS AT KCOS...BUT
WON`T CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301628
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1028 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERN END OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
PLENTIFUL THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO STAY
FAIRLY ISOLATED DESPITE THE WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.
STEERING CURRENTS SILL FAVORABLE TO PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO
THE PLAINS...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SUSPECT STORMS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS TODAY A DEGF OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE QUICKLY
AS ANY UPPER FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD. AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS AHEAD OF NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH...SUSPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS....AND NUDGED MIN T GRID
UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SUNDAY...TROUGH PASSES MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE
INTO KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AND HAS A NARROW
RIBBON OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER KIOWA COUNTY. SUSPECT THE
NAM IS POOLING TOO MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.

.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH PASSED
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER MONDAY
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. FOLLOWED
LEAD OF SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. NAM SUGGESTS MODEST CAPES IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB. FURTHER
WEST...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS A GOOD IDEA OF INCREASING POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MODESTLY WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...BUT STILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE AVERAGE. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...MAIN IMPACT OF ANY TSRA WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TSRA IS AT KCOS...BUT
WON`T CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301628
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1028 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERN END OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
PLENTIFUL THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO STAY
FAIRLY ISOLATED DESPITE THE WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.
STEERING CURRENTS SILL FAVORABLE TO PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO
THE PLAINS...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SUSPECT STORMS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS TODAY A DEGF OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE QUICKLY
AS ANY UPPER FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD. AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS AHEAD OF NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH...SUSPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS....AND NUDGED MIN T GRID
UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SUNDAY...TROUGH PASSES MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE
INTO KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AND HAS A NARROW
RIBBON OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER KIOWA COUNTY. SUSPECT THE
NAM IS POOLING TOO MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.

.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH PASSED
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER MONDAY
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. FOLLOWED
LEAD OF SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. NAM SUGGESTS MODEST CAPES IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB. FURTHER
WEST...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS A GOOD IDEA OF INCREASING POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MODESTLY WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...BUT STILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE AVERAGE. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...MAIN IMPACT OF ANY TSRA WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TSRA IS AT KCOS...BUT
WON`T CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN





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